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Aug 19, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 19, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 19, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:41
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN.
0:11
The sports betting network VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bydlon. What up, party people?
0:21
Live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. What's happening, man? You good? I'm good, man. How you doing? I'm good. Kelly Bydlon, everybody. Bydlon, B-Y-D-L-O-N. Thank you. For those who are googling him.
0:34
Um, on the show today, Kelly, Mark Borchardt on baseball. By the way, Mark Borchardt and I doing a double header after the show today. We are doing our Q3 baseball derivatives podcast. Bang, bang. Pumped.
0:45
But Borchardt will join us here on the show, as will John Legasa, because we need instant offense. We need a microwave Vinnie Johnson, so we got the next best thing, John Legasa.
0:53
And, uh, Mike Somich will sambobomb with us a little later on the show. Uh, do you have docuseries fever? Are you pumped for the, uh- Yeah, man... Circa Survivor documentary that's coming out? Pumped, ready to go.
1:03
I already watched most of the first episode, though. I'm, like, I'm, like, ahead. I did watch the first episode. [laughs] Did not watch episodes two through five, which we don't have, which are next week. Right.
1:11
We don't get a sneak preview of that. But we did get a sneak preview of episode one of Circa Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million, which is tonight. Debuts tonight at VSiN. Um, five, five-part docuseries.
1:23
Quest for 9.2 million. 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific on VSiN.com and YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X. VSiN.com/survivor, in case you missed any of those details. Very excited.
1:33
What, uh, what's it like to see yourself in a, uh, documentary?
1:37
I know this isn't the first one you've ever done, but, uh- Right, 'cause Wishnev and I and Crack, we were on that Showtime docuseries Action about sports betting. So I don't know, it's kind of, yeah, once you...
1:48
Well, the first time you're like, "Wow, oh, do I look like that?" [laughs] That's a good s- It's like, you know, one of the things- Yeah... we do in radio- Yeah... and TV are called air checks- Geez...
1:55
so we watch ourselves back. My God. Who is that guy? Oh, that's me. A- and your natural reaction for a lot of people when you see yourself on air is- Yeah... "Oh, my God, I suck. Like, I suck at this, I suck at this."
2:06
But, like, a document- a documentary, it's even, it's a way different situation. Well, Kelly, I think the, the proper answer is it's about the Circa Survivor players, uh, it's about Circa itself.
2:18
Um, and, um, yes, there are VSiN personalities in it. Stormy is very heavily featured in, in, in episode one. You cannot go wrong with featuring Stormy Banitoni, our friend. Um,
2:30
Pamela Maldonado is featured very heavily in there as well. I, me and Crack just make a little, [laughs] we just make a little appearance in there. The way they edited it was great. I said that last week. It's fantastic.
2:40
Isn't that funny? [laughs] Yeah, it's so great. Uh, and I, uh, and Podcast Gil shows up 'cause I curse in there. Oh, Podcast Gil, watch out. Yeah, I show up in there. Watch your mouth. My mother is gonna be so proud.
2:51
[laughs] "Gilly, why do you use those words? So not nice." Um, so we, so it's fun. So I'm, I'm, I can't wait. And Steven Salansky and James Farah, uh, do a great job in the production of this.
3:02
The Quest for 9.2, Circa Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million, again, tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific. VSiN.com, YouTube TV, live broadcast on X. Which way do you think you'll take it in, Kelly Bydlon?
3:13
I don't know. I just watched the first episode on my computer. So, yeah. As did I. But I might wanna ch- I wanna see how a live broadcast on X, I wonder how that goes down. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I, I, you're right. Yeah.
3:22
I will check that out tonight 'cause I would like to see how that works as well. Okay.
3:26
So, um, I have been saying now for, what do you think, a month, where I'm like, "Okay, this is the year to take a l- to just go crazy in futures in Major League Baseball."
3:37
Uh, my go crazy was I have the Diamondbacks playing the Royals in the World Series at 400 to 1. You don't have to go with those two.
3:44
You don't even have to do, uh, a matchup, but however you decide to play it, this is the year to take a long shot stab.
3:50
And I've been saying it's because it is the most wide open I ever remember a baseball se- a baseball season being this deep into a season.
3:59
Meaning that there are no, there's no team or teams that are Goliaths, uh, as there usually is going into a postseason or, or headed in, you know, the final stretch of the regular season.
4:09
Not to say that those two Goliaths are a, are a lock to get to the World Series, but you don't even have that looming specter this year. And then I, I always quip right after that, Kelly, 'cause I'm a quipper.
4:20
I always go, "Watch this be the year the Yankees and Dodgers get to the World Series." Quit quipping. Yeah, I'll stop quipping.
4:25
But Jeff Passan from ESPN actually framed this beautifully yesterday via tweet, uh, via the old Twitter machine, which I think crystallizes it even further.
4:37
And what he does is basically he, he just looked at the standings and he chops it up a couple ways.
4:42
One, he starts by saying, "This is shaping up to be the weirdest baseball season in a decade," which is his way of saying what I've been saying.
4:48
He says, "With six weeks left, here are the dozen best records in Major League Baseball." So if you're watching at VSiN.com here or at, uh, on the VSiN app, these are, these are the 12 teams on the left.
5:02
These are records on the left. These are run differentials on the right. 12 teams on the left. Let's take out the Astros and Braves there, 'cause the 12 go from 73 wins to 66 wins.
5:12
But if you chop off the Astros and Braves, Kelly, you have 10 teams, a third of Major League Baseball, within four wins of each other. Five losses, by the way. But 10. Yeah, it's a, it's a lot.
5:25
A third of Major League Baseball, not, a, a third of the entire league within four wins of each other, from the Phillies down to the Diamondbacks and everyone in between.
5:35
If you look at run differential, the Yankees are at plus 116, 12 deep, the Braves are plus 50. But again, if you chop off the Braves, you have 11 teams within a 36 run differential of each other.
5:47
And by the way, again, the Yankees only at plus 116.
5:52
Um, further down, by the way, in this, uh, in this tweet from Jeff Passan, he, he explains what he's getting at by saying this, which is Which is simply that, you know, last year you had a World Series where you had a 90-win team.
6:07
Here, I'll just read it verbatim. The best team in MLB, he says, is on pace for 95 wins. The last year without a 100-win team was 2014. Famously, Kelly, the last year that the Giants won the three of their World Series.
6:20
So that was the last time a team had fewer than 100 wins as the best team in Major League Baseball. Best team this year on pace for 95.
6:27
Similarly, the last time the top run differential in baseball was less than plus 231 was 2014, same year. What? What is the Yankees right now? 10 years ago. Like
6:39
fewer than 100, more than, like they're, they're more than 100 less than that. Holy crap. You know, still almost a quarter of the season left, six weeks left, but still, right? Because that's like,
6:49
that could get better, but you're way behind it. When it hits plus 116, that was the highest, right? As, as Jeff Passan says, barely half that at the moment is what it is right now.
6:58
All of which to say, he says a year after a 90-win wildcard team faced an, a 86-win wildcard team in the World Series. By the way, I think he's incorrect about that. I think the Diamondbacks won 84. Rangers won 90.
7:10
I believe the Diamondbacks won 84 last year. The 2024 championship looks as up for grabs as it's been in a long time. Could not agree more, Jeffrey Passan. I assume he's a Jeffrey. Yeah, 84. And this is what I'm saying.
7:23
And so from a betting perspective, it is kind of your duty to take a shot at this because, and again, it doesn't have to be the Diamondbacks and Royals like me, but we also have this interesting thing where,
7:35
and I'll ask Mark Borchert about this, the 12 teams that are in playoff position right now, and I know we're trying to knock the Braves out of the National League, but with the exception of the Braves as the one sort of team that might be, you know, on the bubble, if you will,
7:52
I kind of think we know the 11 others. So mix and match. There are only 36 possible combinations of World Series participants, six and six. So
8:09
now obviously it's weighted to the, to the teams that will have a buy, but you know how the baseball postseason has gone also. That hasn't meant much. Yeah. So 36 possible combinations.
8:17
You know, you know, the way I chose to do it is not an exacta. I don't want to lose.
8:21
Like if I get the right two teams in the World Series, I don't want to lose it on one team beating the other if I have the other opposite. Mm-hmm, yep. So I just did two teams getting there. So- Yeah, I like that.
8:29
We, we, we probably don't, I probably don't bet that market enough. Like we like to bet exactas. Exact, exactas. [laughs] Ex- ex- exactas will frustrate you. [laughs] No, man. But you're right.
8:40
It's so annoying when you've got one side and you've only got one of those tickets. If you, oh, if you get that far, you don't want to lose on that.
8:46
Um, so anyway, Jeff Passan, great tweet there, just talking about just how historical. It's not just us. It's not just us being prisoner of the moment. He's noticing it as well.
8:55
This is just a absolutely, to use his word, weird Major League Baseball season. We'll talk more baseball coming up. Yeah, you've got, you've got 11 teams that are 20 to 1 or shorter right now to win the World Series.
9:05
[laughs] Uh, Dodgers plus 360, your shortest shot. Yankees five to one, Phillies six to one, Royals plus 750. Do you have Hideki Matsuyama to win the St. Jude? Of course not, Gil. I just added it up before the show.
9:15
I've bet the man six times in the outright market this year and not hit on either one of the tournaments that he's won. But congratulations Matt Brown, who did have him- There you go...
9:24
uh, on long shots this week, uh, for a nice pre-tournament outright. It was about, I think it was about a 45 to one shot for him, so. Hideki Matsuyama. Got a little sweaty.
9:32
In case you missed it, uh, he, his coach, and his caddie got robbed. This is, this is a saga. You could make a whole story. You could make a whole miniseries about this weekend for him.
9:42
And I, I don't mean robbed on the golf course. I mean they legitimately, literally got robbed- Yes... at the airport in London. Coming back from the Olympics.
9:49
Coming back from the Olympics, headed to this three-arc, three-tournament arc FedEx Cup. Uh, St. Jude, uh, being the, FedEx St. Jude being the first of those three tournaments.
9:59
Uh, his caddie and his coach had their passports stolen, so they could not make the trip. So Hideki shows up with a new ca- He does make the trip. He has to have a new caddie, a new putter, everything. Um.
10:14
The, the putter part's important. Did you catch that yesterday? Yes, I did, because he was up four strokes. He ends up going in the drink at 14. Um, he ends up trailing, and at 17, what was that, a 27-footer he hits?
10:27
I don't even know how long it was. He, I, I was on air at the time. I guessed about a 20-footer, but it might've been longer. I think so. Yeah. And he sinks it.
10:34
Uh, I'm talking about, so okay, Hideki Matsuyama, who go, who entered the tournament I think ranked 134th on strength, uh, strokes gained putting in the, uh, in, on the PGA Tour, and this was kind of a, like for me modeling this event, this was kind of a throw out the putting stats.
10:49
It's one of the easiest places to putt at.
10:50
So this is, this is where golf, golf stats, you don't look at, you don't put as much weight into putting 'cause you can have these spike putting weeks like Hideki did, and he was by far number one in strokes gained putting through three rounds.
11:04
I'm watching yesterday morning as I'm prepping for Live Bet Sunday here on, on VSiN, sitting at home, and Golf Channel's showing him warm up, talking about how he is using a different putter on the putting pra- practice putting green than he had used the previous three rounds when he'd had the best putting tournament of his life.
11:21
[laughs] And they had a report that he was gonna switch putters for the final round.
11:25
The fill-in caddie I guess basically took it out of his hands and was like, "No, you're using the one that you've been killing it with all week."
11:32
Matsuyama jumps with that win to third in the FedEx, uh, FedEx Cup standings with two tournaments to play. Scotty and Xander still well ahead, but certainly narrowed the gap. We'll come back.
11:44
We'll talk a lot about, uh, preseason as well. I'll go off on it. Mark Borchert on the other side. A little baseball, numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting netw- [upbeat music]
11:59
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our numbers game, live from Bar Canada, the D Kill, Alexander Kelly, Bidlin in the house. He joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert.
12:11
You can follow him @basewinner, basewinner.com. Anything where you see Base Winner, it's this dude. It's Mark Borchert, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Mark? Gil, I'm doing good.
12:22
I'm, I'm enjoying this season. It's, it's cool to see kind of the change that goes on. Uh, particularly like a team with the Royals, like, I don't know.
12:31
I've, I've been kind of an opponent of the Royals, but it, it looks like they're, they're gonna make the playoffs here, Gil. Yes, they are.
12:39
A Diamondbacks/Royals World Series would just be a fabulous day for one of us around here, I will tell you that. Um, let's talk about that first, since you bring it up.
12:48
More likely to happen as we look at the, uh, as we look at the Major League Baseball standings right now. And again, you and I, Mark, kind enough to do double duty today.
12:57
We're doing our, uh, our baseball derivatives, our Q3 show today, our podcast. What that means is we'll look at first five inning bets, uh, we'll look at umpires, we'll look at first inning stats as well.
13:08
So we do a deep dive on the beating the book side. But if I, if I go to the standings right now, Guardians, two game lead over the Twins, three game lead over the Royals. Um,
13:21
Dodgers, three game lead over the Padres, four game lead over the Diamondbacks. Who's more likely to gack their division away, Guardians or Dodgers?
13:30
Well, the Guardians I have, actually, you know, they, they've got a lot of good underlying numbers, so I still have them with a 74.5% chance to win that division.
13:42
Uh, I would love the Twins to, 'cause I have a lot of future stuff on the Twins, but the numbers, at least the way that I'm compiling them today, would indicate that the, uh, the Guardians should be right about -291 to win that division.
13:55
Uh, and then we s- we go down to the AL, or the NL West, rather, and the Dodgers, by my numbers, and I love the Dodgers just, like, personally, but my numbers are, are only giving them a 68.7% chance- Ah...
14:08
to win that division. So that would be -219. The Padres actually, 30.1%.
14:14
And what's interesting about the Padres is I, I do to, to compile these Monte Carlo ratings, I- there's a difference as far as offensive run production, uh, uh, runs scored per game, if you will, and runs against per game.
14:31
And the number one team as of the w- the way I do my numbers, it's, could be controversial to some baseball hipsters, are the Padres. 5.07 runs scored per game against, uh, 3.54 runs against per game.
14:45
Number one in baseball, Gil. Wow, okay. So, so the answer to the question, Dodgers slightly more likely from your numbers standpoint. I would say, yeah, I would say the Dodgers.
14:55
I don't know what kind of pricing you can get for that division, Gil.
14:59
Um, it's weird that pr- that, you know, I did over the weekend, Gil, I did a, I, I figured out how to do the seed percentage, you know, with the- Oh... percentages. See, now I can't find it. I, uh, to bet it.
15:09
So, like, I wanted to be all smart on the show and do, "Hey, this has got a 33% chance," and I can't find the seeding.
15:14
But, uh, so- It's, it, Mark- So it said it- Mark, Mark, it's a two-pronged approach when you do the seeding stuff. You do the math, you've done that, and then you have to find the results to be on the show with it.
15:23
That's a two-pronged approach. I got it up in draftings. Yeah. I- if you got the numbers, Mark. Well, by the way, Pa- Yeah, yeah. Padre- Yeah, I do... by the way, to win the d- You wanna talk about Padres?
15:31
To- Let's talk about Padres... to win the division, let's start there, Padres +550, Diamondbacks 10 to 1. Now you're talking about the seeding, Kelly? Yeah, no, that's a good point.
15:39
Uh, it, uh, 232, uh, 30 per- 30% is plus 232, so- Yeah... Padres to win that division is, is a, is a sweet play. Yeah, you, what, uh, what do you want? Number one seed for the National League? Please.
15:51
Yeah, we got Dodgers -120, Phillies +160, Brewers five to one, Padres 13 to one, Diamondbacks 22 to one.
16:00
Okay, so seed number one, San Diego Padres, 15.1% chance, plus 562, so that would be probably my favorite bet there. All right. Same for the American League? Do you have it? Yeah.
16:12
Yeah, I've, I've got one through six for NL, AL, so you guys just shout out what you need.
16:16
Yankees, even money, Orioles +215, Guardians +425, Twins 11 to one, Astros 30 to one, Royals 35 to one, and the Red Sox 200 to one.
16:28
Okay, so Cleveland, 29.7% chance, plus 237, so that's a good bet in the American League- Okay... from a seeding standpoint. All right. Yeah.
16:38
Um, let's leave it there, 'cause otherwise we, we'll, we'll, we'll- [laughs] I was gonna say... we'll do all 12 of them... I can keep going, but we might be here a while.
16:44
[laughs] Well, let me ask you about this, because we want to get to Mark's, uh, picks of the day also. Let me ask you this, uh, Mark. Is this a thing or not a thing? Thing or not a thing?
16:52
Jon Morosi, I hope he's the first one. I hope I'm giving the proper, uh, person credit. Uh, post-game news in Williamsport regarding Tarik Skubal's workload.
17:00
AJ Hinch, Tigers manager, said tonight's start, meaning last night, could very well be his last start on regular rest in 2024. Here's the quote from Finch. Um, uh, from Hinch, pardon me.
17:13
"It's important for us to be very aware, which we are, and it's also important for us to watch what he's doing. He's a guy who works tremendously hard, put himself in a real good position.
17:21
He's an incredible routine, stuck to it. It's not something we really want in the back of his head. We're controlling the things we can control.
17:27
He continues to go out and dominate, continues to put in good effort between starts. We're giving him extra rest, but he's done the work.
17:33
You've got to reward players when they've done the work with giving them a chance to compete." Now, that's a, that's a big word salad to say. Yeah, what?
17:40
[laughs] I was gonna say, maybe I should have stopped halfway through that. I feel like I had it figured out till the end. [laughs] I was like, "Did I say something at it?"
17:46
So he, all he's saying is, last one on regular rest, obviously preservation of this dude's health is f- paramount for the Tigers organization, so we get why they would take that position.
17:58
For bettors, now he didn't say, what he did not say is, didn't say anything about shutting him down. Is that enough, that quote about last on regular rest, to make you worry if you had Skubal Cy Young bets?
18:13
And if it does, I mean, what's the, who's, who I should say is the alternative? Well, it doesn't make me worry, because he's got quite a lot of body of work already. He's got 155 innings pitched.
18:26
I, I think that the only thing for, well, for me, i- if you're asking me, the guy should win the Cy Young right now, unless somebody else comes up. Like, I, and I'm not seeing it.
18:35
I mean, Crochet's, like, close, but he's not gonna get it, right? 'Cause he's playing for the White Sox. Uh, so I think that he's got enough for me. Now, the question is, is it enough for the market?
18:46
And these, these voters are so, I don't know, recency biased, to me. Oh, huge. Huge recency bias. Yeah. Yeah. And, and you, and you saw that with, with Blake Snell last year. We...
18:56
Uh, pe- I don't know if people are looking at body of work or to- get excited towards the end of year. I don't know what it is, but so maybe there is something there.
19:03
And then so you ask, well, who, who's the n- who's the next guy? Uh, gosh, you know, y- maybe Cole Ragans. Uh, he's got a really good base, base winner ERA. Uh, and, uh, I think his WAR's up there at 4.1.
19:18
So you look at the WAR in American League, you've got Skubal at 4.5 and then Ragans at 4.1, so possibly him. And, you know, the, the, uh, the, the feel-good story of the Royals, uh, would, would play into that as well.
19:32
So, I mean, maybe have no ragrets and go ahead and then take a shot on Ragans. Yeah.
19:38
I, yeah, the reason I bring it up is because, you know, it's our, it's our obligation to bring it up, but I don't know that it's a thing, you know? Like, you, you talk about recency bias.
19:47
It also doesn't take that much to move these markets, right? And to make them look dramatic, uh, as dramatic moves. So Skubal's down to minus 1,100, which is a, a dip for sure, based on this news.
19:58
But, uh, you know, Burns is eight to one, and everybody else is 35 to one or longer, and I just can't make a... I have a Seth Lugo ticket. I can't make a case for anybody, including Lugo, right? Like, I just can't.
20:10
So that it doesn't... Even if he were to get shut down, which there is no indication that he will be, I just don't know who the alternative is.
20:17
And you, you make a case for, uh, for Ragans there at 60 to one, but, you know, worth- Well, that would be my play alternatively. But, you know- Yeah...
20:24
one of the things I'm really pumped up about is I, I'm looking at the group of five, and I do this on your show before the season. Yeah.
20:30
And I, I ma- I had a lot of whiffs, but I, I have Skubal at nine to one in that group, group odds, which was plus 447 for group, group odds. So I'm rooting for Skubal.
20:40
So I think, I don't think there's enough there, though, Gil. Yeah. I, I would agree with you. Yeah.
20:44
We're, uh, gotta bring it up, but I don't, I don't know that there's, uh, there's a bettable, uh, you know, result to that. Okay. What did you get today, Mark? What do you have?
20:53
You know, speaking of those Royals, I'm gonna put them in the first leg of the base winner parlay with your boy, Seth Lugo.
20:59
So I can root doubly for it, 'cause you've got maybe an outside chance for the, for the Cy Young with that guy. But, uh, I've got him 38th in baseball by my numbers.
21:08
But, uh, Carson Fulmer, I've got 114th out of 150 pitchers.
21:12
And then to add to that, this, this Los Angeles Angels bullpen, and, and I don't have it up in front of me, but their xFIP to regular ERA disparity since the All-Star Break is, is incredible.
21:24
Uh, I've got them rated 30th, and, and this includes the White Sox guys. 30th in baseball from a bullpen standpoint, looking at strikeout percentage, w- uh, walk percentage, and ground ball percentage.
21:33
Uh, so they're worst in baseball. And then offensively, uh, versus the particular split, uh, on the road, I have them 27th in baseball. So that's gonna be the first leg of the base winner parlay.
21:43
And then I'm gonna tie them in with the Dodgers, uh, go with the Dodger blue t- t- tonight. I've got, uh, Stone rated...
21:50
I actually have Woo better than Stone in my, in my starting pitcher ratings, but there's a huge gap in this game between the offenses.
21:58
The Dodgers offense, second in the base winner ratings, versus the Seattle offense, 23rd. So you put that in the mixer, I've got about a minus 163 price on that game.
22:08
And if you put those two in a parlay, Gil, it pays plus 158. Okay. Wouldn't be a, wouldn't be an official Mark Borchardt segment without a Borchardt base winner parlay. There you go, uh, from Mark Borchardt.
22:20
Uh, will be interesting to see if we get good Lugo tonight, if he has an outstanding performance, wins his 14th game. It'll be interesting to see how the market moves dramatically once again.
22:29
But I don't think it's a thing. Tarik Skubal, so far, to me, still, um, protected by the words of, uh, AJ Hinch. I don't think it's cause for alarm for Skubal ticket holders. Thank you, Mark.
22:42
We'll talk to you in about 90 minutes for the podcast. Sounds good, Gil. My man. NFL, the disaster that is preseason next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:59
Back on a numbers game live from Bar Canada. At the dig, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. We get tweets, Kelly, at Beating the Book. Oh, before I read the tweets, can I get my tennis plays?
23:07
I, I have two, two segments now I've, uh- The show... I've completely, uh, forgotten about this. So tennis, um, we have the finals in Cincinnati, both on the men's and the ladies' side today.
23:17
I am not participating in either. Uh, ladies' side, Sabalenka and Pegula. Um, slight lean on, on Jesse, but not enough to play it. Um, that- What's, what's the prize money like? Oh, it's big, it's big time. Oh, okay.
23:30
It's a, it's a 1,000. Pegula needs it. [laughs] Pegula, Pegula really does. She's only... Uh, you're always concerned about Jesse Pegula, okay? She- Just look at how much that's good for.
23:38
[laughs] I, I think seven and a half billion is what, is what dad is worth. Yeah. [laughs] Hey, man, you, nothing's promised, okay? Yeah.
23:46
As opposed to Emma Navarro, where her dad only is worth a, a half, one and a half billion. Yeah, you're right. So, uh- I really gotta switch my concentration over to her. She needs help.
23:53
[laughs] So no, no play on Sabalenka/Pegula. By the way, they got there. Uh, Sabalenka beats Swiatek in straights. Yeah. Um, Swiatek, who has won 10 1,000s in her career, six on hard courts. Sabalenka gets it done.
24:06
And Pegula, I, well, I had Badosa yesterday. I had 53 cents of CLV. Gone. Doesn't matter. Ugh. Pegula beats her. You know what? You actually, uh... I was, I, I did my, I did the old check the VSiN prop picks.
24:19
I saw that, uh, old Gil and Zach were on Badosa. I was like, "I'm gonna bet this." Oh. And I saw the number, and I was like, "This has got nearly the same number [laughs] these guys got."
24:28
So I stayed away because of that. Well, so today it's, it's the tournaments. We, we drop down now. This is not big tournaments, but we're, we have a, uh, men's side is in Winston-Salem.
24:36
Oh, you know the big Winston-Salem tournament, don't you? Mm-hmm. And then the ladies are in Cleveland. That's a 250. I got, I got five total plays today. One in Winston-Salem.
24:44
I'm on Jaume Munar, plus 103 against David Goffin. Again, all these at vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport, everything we have bet is up at vsin.com/picks, and I put my tennis in the night before.
24:57
Munar is, you can still bet it right around that price, plus 103 over David Goffin. And then on the ladies' side- How, how do you say that first name? Jaume Munar. Okay.
25:05
I thought you sent these to me s- purposely screwing with me today. Oh, we're supposed to let you pronounce them first? Okay. Like, I have no idea. What, what do we got at the top? O- On-troxa Rus?
25:13
[laughs] Where, what are you even looking? Oh, the second one. Yeah, yeah, yeah. [laughs] On-troxa A- Arantxa Rus. Sure. [laughs] On-troxa. There's an X in there. [laughs] Oh my God. Okay. Let's... I'll just read these.
25:28
You can start with reading them tomorrow. On-troxa. Um, okay. Uh, from, let's see. Diane Parry plus 153 over Anastasia, uh, Potapova. Parry right now...
25:38
Look, by the way, it's spelled Diane Parry if you're a- Diane Parry. Yeah. That's right. Diane Parry. I can always help with that. She's French.
25:44
Uh- And for, and for Steve Fezzik out there, this is women's tennis at the time. This is women's tennis. That's right. He wants to know.
25:49
He would like to know whether or not- [laughs] Just tell me if they're men or women, Gil. Uh, it's, uh, she's plus 139 now.
25:54
I would still play her, but don't let her get lower than that, but we got her at plus 153 last night. Lucia Bronzetti's minus 120 over Arantxa Rus, but Bronzetti's about minus 131. Uh, don't let it get higher than that.
26:05
That was my teetering on the edge of playable. Uh, Katie Volynets you absolutely cannot play. She was minus 102 when I got her last night against Sofia Kenin. She's minus 147 now. Whoa.
26:16
Yeah, don't, uh, but, you know, 45 cents of CLV. We're, you know how this goes. Man. After the Badosa thing yesterday. And then Martina Trevisan you can absolutely play.
26:25
She's right around the price, minus 102 over Kristyna Pliskova. So Parry, Bronzetti, Trevisan I cannot recommend you play Volynets anymore on the ladies' side, and then Munar on the men's side.
26:35
Um, okay, we get tweets @BSinBetBook. Martina Trevisan's kind of a badass name. I like that one. Um, she kinda, she kinda that too- Hmm. Okay, cool... in real life. Yeah.
26:44
Uh, Sloane Stephens' not a fan of Martina Trevisan. Really? Yeah, she was once asked about her in a kinda press conference. She goes, "Not my favorite." Oh my God. Great. She even went, she even went back to the mic.
26:51
She goes, "Trevisan, not my favorite." We, we, we got, we gotta rank at some point, uh, all-time best/worst beefs in sports. Tennis beefs. Like, like tennis and golf beefs are so hilariously up there.
27:02
Like I'm g- I'm so in for that. Uh, Rat City, "Just checking on if we're taking the overs again in week three." [laughs] I'll get to that momentarily.
27:10
Bruce Dobikin, "Uh, my mom has been gone for a few years, so I'm living vicariously through your mother, Gilly." Thank you, Bruce. I, man, my, my condolences about your mother.
27:18
Chris Heath, "Before I went to see the Giants/A's yesterday I took San Francisco to win the pennant at 50 to 1." I have them pre-flop at about half that to win the pennant and at that price to win the World Series.
27:28
Uh, Hoops by Hoots, "Following the betting blank in NFL overs this week went about as well as asking my wife I can, if I can golf both days of the weekend the week after a newborn arrived."
27:37
[laughs] Trust The Glove, "Do you know where I can bet the starter for Pittsburgh?" Yeah, FanDuel's got it up. FanDuel's got Ru- Yeah, we've got, uh- Yeah... Russell Wilson I think is, like, minus 530. Jesse Welch,
27:51
oh, m- Russell Wilson is minus 530? Okay, we gotta get into all this. Mm-hmm. Jesse Welch, "Uh, this documentary features podcast Gilly swearing like a sailor. Oh, blank yeah, I'm in." He didn't say blank. Um, okay.
28:02
And, uh, we'll get some more here momentarily. Let's just talk some football. W- the reason that I said disaster that is on the way into the break was I'm just talking about the macro things we've talked.
28:11
So heading into week one of the preseason, remember the, there was the three team, 10-point teaser thing that we, that we talked about that worked so well last year. It was the only thing I did in preseason.
28:22
I was like, "All right, we're gonna do the three team, 10-point teaser thing." Didn't work at all, right? Week one of preseason.
28:27
Um, this is- Yeah, I haven't even really attempted at much of those though, 'cause there are very few shops even offering. It was, it was just a week one thing- Yeah... and, and very few shops offered it. You're right.
28:36
Uh, but just this is from Dave Tooley, "Through week two of the preseason, unders 26 and 6. Underdog 17 and 4 straight up and 20 and 11 against the spread." Let's focus on that unders, 26 and 6.
28:49
And then we had, right, we had Steve Fezzik come in here on the show, and Stevie is, you know, big brain, smart guy, but Stevie did a couple things that fell flat on, on, on the face, right?
29:01
One was he went crazy on the overs. Monday, he moved the markets with his over bets. Yep, yeah. Right? Several points on most of them. 26 and 6 to the under in two weeks, so those didn't work out at all.
29:12
And then he did the thing which I cautioned against. I said now that it's not a four-week preseason, it's only a three-week preseason, right? The whole Dr.
29:19
Bob play a w- a team coming off a loss versus a team coming o- off a win, it doesn't really apply anymore, and I know he wanted to make it apply to week two in the w- of the, uh, three-week spread, of the three-week arc I should say.
29:32
And it's just not the same anymore because from a non-betting standpoint, by the way, I just feel like the preseason is watered down. We don't get the same kind of, um, meat to being able to evaluate.
29:46
We don't get the s- we don't get the p- you know, players aren't playing as much. There are certain teams that just punt on players entirely. Like Bryce Young still hasn't played in Carolina.
29:57
Like that would've never happened in past years.
30:00
It's just a different way that they play preseason, whether it's, whether it's associated with it going from four games to three games we can debate, but it, but it's definitely the case. It's played differently now.
30:09
And then from a betting standpoint, it's just these macro things that Stevie was talking about, they just, they don't work anymore.
30:15
And Bob would be the first person to tell you not to play it that way, a team that coming off a loss, uh, to beat a team that came off the win.
30:21
So I just think from a, from a viewing standpoint, I don't think it's as good of a prody. It was never a great product to begin with, NFL preseason. I don't think it's as good.
30:29
And from a betting standpoint, unless you're doing single games and you're picking your spots...
30:33
By the way, those, that situation, in case you were wondering, the, you know, the losing teams up against the winning teams, I think it was one and four. It might've been two and three based on where you got the number.
30:41
That's the other thing. These numbers move so quickly- Yep... that in order to spend your time content-wise talking about it, it's a lot of... whistling in the wind about numbers that are flying around.
30:55
So by the way, a lot of middles would hit if you're, if you're able to play that game. So anyway, you, you did well, though. You played a couple games that, that did well. Yeah. I'm 5 and 0 so far [laughs] the preseason.
31:03
This was the- But you've done none of that macro stuff. None, not really any of that. I will- Yeah... I will say, though, like, I played one of the overs Fezzik's brought, Fezzik brought up last week.
31:11
That was the Giants Texans one. [laughs] That came out. Oh, God. [laughs] I played that, too, and that luckily hit. That's right. Yeah. Um, otherwise, man, like I had a couple bets on the Broncos yesterday.
31:18
That was actually kinda easy, uh, easy winner on that one yesterday. Um, and then I, what? I had two from week one, so yeah, fi- 5 and 0 preseason.
31:27
Think after, after that, watching that Broncos game, counting how much... Watching that Broncos game last night, Gil, and counting how much money I lost in golf, there couldn't have been a...
31:36
It might as well have been a guy with two signal flares outside my window- [laughs]... just being like, "Time to change seasons. Football's here. Golf's done." Will you even place one bet for week three? Probably not.
31:49
I don't know. I just w- I just w- read through the lines right now. I mean, I, we can go through some of these, right? There's not much jumping out to me.
31:54
I, I think at this point, I mean, a lot of what I've been going off of, too, is just, it's kinda my old, it's just the old school what's the quarterback depth chart look like versus the, versus what the other team's doing, and especially based off of news.
32:06
Like, you know, you know, yesterday we knew Denver was gonna run through all those quarterbacks, and you knew- Yeah... Green Bay wasn't gonna play any of their starters.
32:12
Let's, let's, let's talk about that Pittsburgh thing for a second that the, uh, gentleman asked about. Yeah. Yeah. This is up, uh... I saw it at FanDuel, uh, has it up. Russell Wilson was eight of 10 for 47 yards,
32:25
sacked three times. Justin Fields, 11 of 17 for 92, sacked once, eight carries for 42 yards. He did fumble once, but they did recover, in Buffalo's 9 to 3 win over Pittsburgh.
32:38
Russell Wilson to start week one is minus 520. Justin Fields is plus 350. Let me ask you something. If you're the Steelers and you see this, and I, I get it. Just by the way, there's also tape of Justin Fields.
32:51
There's a man wide open. D- I mean, he's got a man wide open downfield. [laughs] He never sees him, so it's like the same vintage, if you will, Justin Fields.
32:58
So don't be, like, too, too seduced by his stats being a little better than Russell Wilson's. But if you are the Steelers, if you're Mike Tomlin, don't you wanna...
33:07
Like, at least Justin Fields is young, and you can convince yourself that maybe there's something in the future. Don't you start Justin Fields?
33:15
Or are you like, "Well, I guess this is your last days, Russell Wilson, and we did sign you, so I guess we gotta start you here"? Yeah. The last- I think I'm in the latter still. It's still Russell Wilson, man.
33:28
The guy still won a Super Bowl. I know it's been trash for the last couple years, but you, you, you brought him in here. You gotta figure out what you got first.
33:35
The logic of the former, that you should go with a younger person, I believe in. But I think the latter, that they're going to start Russell Wilson, is actually what's gonna happen. More football on the other side.
33:46
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you ready to up your game this football season?
34:03
Dive into the action with VSiN's college and NFL betting guides, whether you're gearing up for college matchups or the NFL grind. Our expert insights, stats, and predictions are your ultimate playbook for success.
34:13
For just $175 dollars, you could score VSiN Pro access until the Super Bowl. That's right, all the tools, trends, and tips you need to crush your bets and stay ahead of the curve available until the big game.
34:23
Don't miss out on this winning opportunity. Head over to vsin.com/subscribe now to score your VSiN Pro access. That's vsin.com/subscribe. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, we were talking...
34:34
By the way, we get tweets. Let me just read this one here. This is from
34:37
Uncertified Boogeyman, "Love the unbiased take on the Scoobal stuff despite holding a ticket on a guy in the race, quote-unquote, unlike others trying to make cases for undeserving candidates. Props, Gil.
34:48
Great stuff as always. Terr-," signed, "Tarik Scoobal ticket holder."
34:51
[laughs] Tony Farmer, "Uh, with the release of the Survivor documentary tonight, I'm curious if you decided on how many entries you'll have this year and where you might be leaning for week one."
34:59
I don't know about week one yet, um, Tony, but probably one millions and five Survivors just like I did last year, I'm thinking. I w- I did start- Well...
35:09
I did start to think yesterday that I'm like, uh, I felt like on Friday or something, I'm like, "Man, I'm getting a lot of questions about what I'm doing week one," and then you're like, all of a sudden you're like, "Oh yeah, that's only just a few weeks away.
35:19
Those are, uh-" It's, it's only a few weeks away... those are valid questions at this point. Yeah. Again, the awkward week off after this week. Right. [laughs] But then we'll be into it. I, by the way, I am ready.
35:27
I'm ready for the hamster on the wheel. Let's get there already. Uh, back to the whole Wil- Russell Wilson and, uh, Russell Wilson versus Justin Fields thing. Let's contrast that with the Raiders for a second.
35:36
So the Raiders, um, by the way, they played the, the R- Raiders played the Cowboys. Cowboys crushed them, 27 to 12. Trey Lance was actually the star of the game.
35:44
Trey Lance, 15 of 23 for 151, seven carries for 34 yards, and a touch for Dallas, um, which we'll get to here momentarily. But let's talk about the Raiders for a second.
35:54
So the Raiders, O'Connell, Aiden O'Connell, goes 14 of 20 for 96. Minshew goes 10 of 21 for 95. Antonio Pierce said, "Uh, I'm gonna decide on this after the game."
36:04
You probably were correct in your hunch that he probably had already decided. He decides to go with Minshew. So Gardner Minshew is going to be, according to Antonio Pierce, the Raiders' game one starter.
36:15
I think that's the correct decision for the Raiders, but not for necessarily the reasons you're here, 'cause a lot, uh, you'll hear, because a lot of people are like, "Well, Minshew, he's play- you know, he has more games under his belt.
36:26
You know, he, he's, he's managed to find s- you know, action everywhere he's been, now in his f- on, now on his fourth team."
36:33
So it was Jaguars, Eagles, Colts, and now Raiders, and the dude just gets playing time no matter what. He just, he, he finagles into a situation, and here he is, the, uh, week one starter.
36:43
I think it's the correct move for the Raiders because if Minshew fails, you can then go to the kid, and it's still a great thing for the kid's confidence.
36:55
I think if you start with O'Connell and he falters And then you have to bring in Minshew. I think it has a detrimental effect, an out- an outsized, disproportionate effect on the young kids' confidence.
37:09
So I think this is how you play it if you're the Raiders. I'll back it up with another reason, I think. Because if you go, if you s- if you go O'Connell first, and then he falters like you're talking about- Yeah...
37:20
and you, and you wanna, uh, and you wanna bring in Minshew, Minshew's gonna screw around and win you a game or two that you don't wanna win at that point. [laughs] That's, that's another great reason. Yeah. Yes.
37:29
So that's why, yeah- That's another-... I have no faith personally in Aiden O'Connell, so, like, I think, I think you run Minshew out there to start the season, see if he can actually do anything with th- with this team.
37:36
And, and Minshew does give you, I think does give you the better chance- He did... to win football games. Absolutely. So I, so I think it's the- Yeah... absolute right choice for the Raiders. Back to the Steelers,
37:45
I think you've almost painted yourself into a corner and kind of have to go with Wilson, even though the correct way to go is to go with Fields. I think they go with Wilson. I do think that there, if there are...
38:00
Like, we, we like to laugh about Mike Tomlin and the Steelers sometimes on this show, but, like, let, let, let's be real. Mike Tomlin, I think, has one... is one of the more powerful head coaches in the NFL.
38:11
I actually, I, I think most, most teams, this would be no-brainer it's Russell Wilson. Like, it, they, they feel the pressure too much that they brought him in. Oh, you think he might not feel it?
38:22
I think Mike Tomlin has enough power that if he really says it's Fields is the better guy, that we could actually see him. I don't, I still don't think that's what's gonna happen, though.
38:31
[laughs] Are you, uh, I guess the point is, are you betting plus thrifty, 350 or no? No, no, I wouldn't. No. I wouldn't. Okay. Um- I, I think it's still likely Russell Wilson...
38:39
by the way, as far as some, the other rookie quarterbacks, Jayden Daniels, 10 of 12 for 78, so he followed up a, a great first game with a solid second game.
38:48
Um, Caleb Williams, first action, 6 of 13 for 75, but he did- Ooh... score on a seven-yard touchdown run. That one drive, man, I, I caught all of that. He looked damn good. You watching- You know, you know-...
38:57
Hard Knocks, by the way? You know, the one that keeps driving me nuts about Caleb Williams, drove me nuts before the draft, and it's driving me nuts after, after.
39:04
You saw, uh, the, the one crazy throw where he rolls out to his left, throws across his body. Yeah. Rome catches it. I love this analysis. It's the, it's the, "Well, he plays too much like Patrick Mahomes."
39:17
[laughs] I still don't understand how that's a knock, Gil. Well- Like, it's the everybody's worried about what he can do inside the pocket.
39:24
God forbid he rolls out and makes a throw that, like, two other guys in the league could make right now. His best passes on Hard Knocks are all so him awkwardly, you know, like r- sprinting to his left, across his body.
39:35
But- Beautiful, on a dime to a Tuesday... whatever gets it, gets the job done, man. Right. Well, okay. We'll see, right?
39:42
He's certainly a confident kid, and, uh, you know, we should bring up our Merrill Hoge footage of, of Merrill Hoge on our show saying he's nothing special. Yeah. [laughs] We'll see. Yeah. We'll see how that plays out.
39:50
But anyway, uh, Bears, Bears and Skins have to be happy. J- Drake May finally got in for more than three plays, right? He was 6 of 11 for 47.
39:58
He did score on the ground as well in a 14 to 13 loss- I thought he looked pretty good again... to the Eagles. He did fumble, though. Mm-hmm. They, they did recover their own fumble. Bo Nix, though, 8 of 9 for 80.
40:07
It looks like Bo Nix is gonna be the Broncos starter. Yeah, yeah. I think at this point, yeah, for sure. Um, and by the way, Marvin Harrison Jr. getting off quarterbacks for a second.
40:15
He didn't play after only having, like, three, not even a target, or he had three targets the first game, like, so he's barely had any action. Uh, Michael Penix didn't play.
40:24
Like, the Falcons are like, "We've seen enough." He didn't play at all. Um- See, this is where I was complaining to you about the schedule off air, and then we complained about it on air. Oh, the schedule is terrible.
40:31
I forgot about that. What are we doing with this preseason? I watched almost everything Thursday, everything Sunday- Yeah... and, like, whatever was on NFL Network for most of the day on Saturday.
40:41
But they had, you know, there was 12 other games I missed. We have gone a whole off season. I should have added the schedule being a part of why the preseason stinks also.
40:49
That was just a terrible schedule this past weekend. D- we need someone, if w- if we're gonna waste taxpayer dollars on sports sometimes- [laughs]... I need someone in government in charge of all sports scheduling.
41:00
Can we get to the Cowboys for a second? You and I have, have joked all throughout the off season about how ESPN, the screens are on behind you, it, their default on everything is, "Let's talk about the Cowboys.
41:11
Let's talk about Dak's contract." Yep. Stuff we're not... It doesn't apply to betting. Dak's contract doesn't. But I do want it for o- for two moments. We've each had this moment. Yeah, yeah.
41:19
We sh- 'Cause we laugh about it- For, for-... and then we're like, "But actually there's a thing here"... for two minutes, can we talk about the Cowboys- Yeah... sports talk radio?
41:26
Because, and the Trey Lance thing sort of triggered in my head. Not that I think Trey Lance is necessarily the answer, but it did c- it did spark in my head. I'm like, "Okay, Jerry, not paying anybody."
41:37
Dak is, like, Dak has all this leverage. You know my whole thing, though. Unless you're a rookie quarterback over-performing- Mm-hmm... right?
41:45
And you can pay everybody else, or unless you're a Hall of Famer, those are the only ways you're winning a Super Bowl. Dak ain't either of those two things. Mm-hmm. Okay?
41:52
The question becomes, if you're a Cow- if you're Jerry Jones, how do you play this? And I think, I think the optimal way that you should play it, if Jerry Jones wasn't about to be 82 years old [laughs], would be,
42:09
after this year, you actually do trade Dak to, like, the Raiders, right? Who would, like, happily take Dak, and all the Raiders fans would go nuts, and they'd think they're gonna win the Super Bowl.
42:18
You know how that goes, right? And then you would start, not with Trey, not with Trey Lance necessarily, but you would g- you would f- try to figure out a rookie quarterback to draft that you are high on.
42:29
Then maybe it ends up being Trey.
42:30
But the point being is y- the, the optimal way is you trade Dak, you figure out a way to get a rookie quarterback that you like, then you do secure Parsons, you do secure CeeDee Lamb, you do build the team around this low-paid quarterback, and that is your closest path.
42:45
You're the Dallas Cowboys. I hope Dave Ross is listening. That is your closest way, your s- your most direct path to winning a Super Bowl.
42:52
But because he's 82 years old, talking about Jerry Jones, who's about to be 82 years old, there is no chance he has the stomach for this, right?
43:00
There's no chance he's going to have the onions, knowing that he desperately wants to win a Super Bowl, to see that through.
43:09
He's just gonna default to, "No, we're just gonna pay Dak, and we're just gonna run this back time and time again." And so I th- I thought- Yep...
43:16
the Trey Lance performance was, it, it was interesting because it brought that to mind, and I'm just like, "They're just gonna be in purgatory with this. They're just gonna be that team."
43:23
See, what it w- would, would've been... I, I agree. Um, I think what would've been interesting is if they were...
43:30
And I, and I don't think they ever would've been willing to do this, but if they had gotten involved with, like, the Justin Fields move. You know, if like, "Hey, Chicago, can we trade you Dak Prescott for Justin Fields?"
43:40
And obviously they were... I mean, this is, takes Caleb Williams out of the situation.
43:44
[laughs] But you're looking, still looking for someone on a cheaper deal, right, that you could bring in, at least keep the team competitive while then you build for the future.
43:53
All right, we had to get two minutes of Cowboys talk out of the way. We did a little sports talk radio on that.
43:57
Anyway, from a, from a betting standpoint, I still don't think they're winning the division necessarily, even though I'm down on the Eagles.
44:03
I still think the Eagles eke it out, and I don't think the Cowboys are, are gonna win a Super Bowl as currently constituted. I just don't. I think it's interesting. I, like, I, I keep thinking about your...
44:13
I mean, you always br- you always say with the quarterbacks, the rookie deal or that were a Super Bowl or a Hall of Fame level quarterback.
44:18
It's so true, and it's just like you think, think about some of these guys that are about to get paid, and then power rank where the quarterbacks are at in the league.
44:24
Like, where's, where do you have Dak Prescott at in the league? We should do that one of these days. Yeah, we should. I mean, 10-ish? 10-ish. Ish. Ish. I, that, that's the thing, right?
44:36
Goff, Cousins, all these guys getting these deals. We'll come back. John Lagasse joins us next.
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