Transcript 0:00 [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:10 [upbeat music] Tuesday edition of a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Vidlin alongside me here all week long. Drew Dinsick gonna join us a little bit later. 0:24 Who the hell knows what we're gonna talk about with Drew? That's right. Well, well, we know. He- Little, little NFL. The Fantasy- Well, I mean, uh, he's the star of a panel that's coming up here. 0:32 That's- What, uh, he might just wanna talk about what he's gonna be doing there. I mean, there's- If you, if, if you squint really closely, you can see his picture, uh, between me and Matt's shoulders. 0:39 Way in the back there in the circus poster. Is it, is it up right? Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, it's right back there. Yeah, it is. Look at that. Yeah, sitting up right now, so. I can even make out which one's him. 0:45 It's, he's the only one with the lettuce up there. Yeah, he will, uh, join Mike Palm, and as they get us ready for the, the big push here at Circa for the signups. 0:54 And again, pacing ahead of last year, so we'll see where this thing all ends up. But I know a couple more 100K guys are coming in, uh, this week as well, so we're definitely gonna get over 20, 20... Could we get to 30? 1:07 We might could get to 30. We might could get to 30. I have no idea what to guess anymore on that. I, I've been off- We might get-... since the beginning. We might could get to 30. 1:13 It's like I said, I think that the more people that enter, the more enticing it becomes to people with large bankrolls. And when I say large bankrolls, I just mean rich people. Right. Yeah. 1:22 Because turning 100K into 1.5 for, like, a hedge fund guy is like, I do that, like, every 30 seconds. A Tuesday. [laughs] Yeah, like I do that every 30 seconds. 1:30 But maybe, like, turning 100K into 4 million might be worth him- Yeah... coming in, you know? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely. I, I, I think- Making the flight out or something. 1:36 I, I, I've heard you and Mike Savage ta- discussing that. I think you, I think you guys are probably right. The more it grows, more people will come in. 1:44 But man, I, we're well over the number I said already, so we'll see. Yeah. Uh, we, uh, will also talk Major League Baseball. There's some interesting games that are going on today as well. 1:54 We will get into the NFC and AFC North. We're going all, all North all- That's right... all the time. All the North. All the North all the time here. Yeah. 2:01 You wanna let people know why we have a top hat on the desk here? Yeah. 2:03 Winners Cir- Circle proxy service, we are announcing two more Circa Millions giveaways today on the show, 8:15 Pacific Time, so a little over an hour. There's already somebody outside waiting for the announcement. 2:15 'Cause he thinks he's gonna draw? He thinks we're gonna draw his name? I probably could've been nice. So what we did was Bill Adey randomized the list, okay? Then gave me five names. They're in the hat. 2:24 We will each pull out one name. I probably could've just been nice- Oh, so it's been-... and asked him what his name was... so we've, so we've pre-pulled, and then we're going to p- oh, okay. Correct. 2:31 So- So there are five names in this hat. Whoever wins will have, will have won two different contests essentially- That is correct, yes... because you made the pre-pull, and then you get the actual live pull as well. 2:40 That, that, that is correct. That is that what will go down in- They should-... a little over an hour... 2:43 they should, they should take this free entry to the Millions and then immediately walk down and then also sign up for S- for Survivor because they're, they're running real pure to win this thing. That's right. 2:51 Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. You won two different pulls in order to get it done. But let's talk a little bit about what we saw last night, yesterday, et cetera, et cetera. Saw... 3:00 We knew that the starters were gonna play in Cincinnati and Washington. We did get, uh, Joe Burrow. We did get a little bit of Jayden Daniels. Joe Burrow, uh, looked really good. 3:11 That said, if you asked him on the sideline, which they did, kind of a, a long interview. Like, I, the... How many, how many sideline interview questions are you allowed? 3:20 'Cause I kind of like, I think after three, then you've kind of held the guy a little bit too long, and this was, like, a seven-question sideline interview. So it's really funny you bring this up. 3:28 I had the, I had it on, I had the game on TV too at this point- Oh, okay... on, on mute. Yeah. And I thought the same thing though. I kept looking over there. 3:35 I'm like, "I feel like Burrow's been over there talking- No... for, like, 10 minutes." 3:37 It was like this, it was the deal of, he said, "Yeah, you know, we've got some things to clean up, and, you know, we blah, blah, blah, blah, blah." And she's like, "Like, specifically, what were you looking to clean up?" 3:45 And he's like, "Oh, I mean, off the top of my head?" [laughs] Like, what... You know, it's just, like, these follow-up questions, you could tell that they were in her ear going like, "No, make it go longer. 3:52 Make it go longer." And he's like, "Dude, this is, like, we're seven questions in here. Like, can I, can I get out of here?" But- Well, plus he gave the basic, uh, football response, right? 3:59 Like, "Ah, it was, it was okay, but we got things to work on. You know, yeah." Oh, no. 4:03 Then, then when she made him go specifics, he had to be like, "Well, I missed a throw on third down, and you know, I th- th- put the ball on the ground once," and, like, whatever. 4:11 Like, he literally had to, like, think of things off the top of his head- Oh, man... as to what to say with, uh, with all that. You had a... Do we call it a bad beat? 4:18 I guess we'll call it a bad beat, uh, in your bet last night. Yeah, sort of, except for I got paid out. Really? Yeah. I have no idea why. I have no idea why except for the same book has done this before, so. Okay. 4:29 Well, there we go. Yeah. Thank you- Winner... sports book. Winner- [laughs] Winner, winner, I guess, even though the, uh- I don't wanna bring it up. I don't want to- Yeah... go looking more into it. It was a, the... 4:37 You, you went in and bet the, the highest scoring quarter- Yeah... in the game. And in that, there was 21 points in the first quarter, but there was also 21 points in the second quarter. Yeah, I know, I know. 4:46 I guess you just got dead- Sh- should be a push or a dead heat. I have no idea, but I was paid in full. I like that. Ties, ties paid in full. I have no... 4:52 The same book has done something sim- uh, it has done the same thing with a similar market before. Mm-hmm. So maybe it is just ties paid in full, but that is very unusual. 5:01 What we got also in this game was just the story within the story, which was they kept showing on the sideline. Trey Henderson's down there. Yeah. He's wearing a Bengals shirt, and, uh, just not playing in this. 5:14 They show him talking to Joe Burrow several different times and yukking it up. Apparently, the report has come through that they're pretty close to getting this done, the problem being just the guaranteed money. 5:27 I think they're okay on the length and the total money. It just becomes down to the, uh, the guaranteed money. 5:32 This is something that Cincinnati has always been known for being a little bit stingy on, is the guaranteed money in these contracts, and Trey Henderson apparently seems like he is not going to give in on what he wants from a guaranteed standpoint. 5:45 But they talked about it a ton on the broadcast. It's hard to, it's hard to look at this team, a- and Kelly, you know, this is the preview that you get for every single time anyone talks about Cincinnati. 5:54 You know, it's just the, the offense is there. What do they got on the defensive side of the ball? And certainly, if you do not have Trey Hendrickson, you're going to be much worse. 6:02 And so, uh, I, I think now, now that they're close in principle, uh- That someone will give in. Yeah. Maybe they meet in the middle. I think he's probably out on the field in week one. Yeah, uh, yeah, I'll tell you. 6:13 I, yeah, I think that's where we're heading as well. After tho- a- and I'll, I'll say after those comments from him, uh, last night, I may... 6:19 You know, a- after reading what he had said to Lure Rutledge on the sideline, just kind of about where they're at, I'm a- I'm actually far more convinced now- Mm-hmm... this is gonna happen. 6:26 We talked a little bit about all these guys' statuses yesterday, and I thought his was maybe most up in the air, mainly 'cause I was starting to buy into, Matt, the, okay, if we're gonna talk about how trash this defense was, dude was still out there all of last year. 6:40 How much could, how much of a difference can one guy be if you're gonna be, if you're gonna be this bad and you hate spending money, uh, is it gonna be, is it gonna make that much of a difference anyways? 6:49 I mean, yes, obviously he's a great player. He makes a difference with that pass rush on the field, but that defense was still bad last year. 6:55 So, and I was get- I was coming closer around to maybe Hendrickson's the one that doesn't work out here. But man, time's running out on all these guys. 7:03 I, like [laughs] this is j- just starting to feel very odd how long each one of these deals is taking to get done. 7:09 I will say this, and this is something I think we just, like, you know, because the narrative is just how bad the defense was, so we just always talk about that. Mm-hmm. 7:17 From week nine to week 18 last season, Cincinnati was actually 13th in EPA play allowed, like over the c- over the course of the second half of the season. Okay. So, you know. So they got better. 7:26 So, uh, the, the, at least upper half. That didn't mean they were good, but they were at least upper half. Some... They weren't just complete, uh, complete gutter trash there. 7:34 We said they were going to name the starting quarterback. We said it was gonna be Joe Flacco. It is, in fact, Joe Flacco. He will be under center for the Cleveland Browns to start the season. 7:43 You and I both kinda disagree with the decision, mainly because he might be good enough to win a couple of games. I don't think that you're trying to win a couple of games. 7:50 If you're Cleveland, you have to know how far off you are right now. You gotta be thinking about, uh, you know, next year, the year after that. But 7:58 I guess you don't wanna go out there and just get absolutely waxed in your first few games, and then your fans stop showing up, or they start wearing paper bags to games and different stuff like that, which they're gonna end up doing anyway. 8:09 Maybe week one. Yeah. That's 'cause... Which they're gonna do anyway. Like, this is gonna happen regardless. But Joe Flacco is going to start for this Cleveland Browns team. 8:18 I think we all saw it coming, and, uh, doesn't do anything for me. I don't think they're... I still think they're one of the worst teams in the NFL. 8:24 They're just fractionally better now because he at least has some experience in the league and can figure things out maybe a little bit better than these rookies could if they were thrown in there week one. 8:33 Yeah, this is, uh, a- a- I guess it just... I- it's a matter now of how many games does he go, right? Yeah. I, I guess I'm expecting we see both rookies at some point during the season. 8:43 Kenny Pickett may be [laughs] traded, maybe let go. Yeah. I have no idea what's gonna happen there. Maybe they really do go into the season with four quarterbacks. 8:50 But man, that is, that is, that is hard for me to believe. I know you and I talked about it yesterday. 8:54 I, I, I really think the original plan was f- open that Pickett was gonna look good, and you'd ride with Pickett and the two rookies, and, and Flacco'd get cut. 9:01 But like, hey, you're doing, you're dealing with two rookie quarterbacks, so I understand the get the vet out there, give them a little bit more time to get up to speed. 9:07 But man, it is, it is gonna be tough to get excited about this Cleveland offense this year. Yeah, it's gonna be... It, it... Listen, enough talent on the defense, like we said- Mm-hmm... 9:16 to, like, keep the game somewhat manageable, but gonna be tough to- Oh, they-... move the ball at times... they might be an ugly dog that you have to look at betting on s- Yeah... on sides this year. 9:25 Like, there's no doubt about it. 'Cause they, they could be... That defense could keep them around in games that if you're catching six, seven points or something, they might, it might be one you'd be looking at. 9:34 You're gonna hate yourself every single time. Yeah, you're gonna hate it. You're just gonna hate yourself every single time. Uh, Matt Stafford did go back to practice. Uh, Matt Stafford. 9:42 You guys remember we, uh, been talking about Matt Stafford all off season. Uh, anyone that will put a microphone in front of me, I was very excited about this Rams team. Did not like to hear that he had a back injury. 9:53 But he was back out there. Um, I am skeptical. Yeah. He's old, and back injuries and being old typically don't mix too well. But we will see. Play through the pain, I suppose. 10:06 He's gonna get the best treatment that a human can get, and maybe the best drugs a human can get as well. So I imagine he's going to... 10:13 I mean, Matthew Stafford's a tough dude, so he's gonna be out there as much as he can. He's going to endure this pain. 10:18 But it's, it definitely lowers my, my ceiling now, I think, on this Rams team, which is kind of a bummer, 'cause I was pretty hot on them. Yeah, I was, I was, too. 10:25 Um, but I think this NFC West is gonna be fun regardless, though. Yeah. I, the Niners' schedule's such cake that I think they're gonna be in it no matter what. I do think this Rams team is still good. 10:33 I think, I, and I am one of those people that's a little high on the Cardinals, even though I do think the market's probably correctly caught up to where they're at, uh, this season. 10:40 But, uh, yeah, it's, it's tough with Stafford, too, 'cause I think, you know, the other... Some of the pushback I've heard, Matt, is, is, okay, you know what? 10:47 He's dealt with a lot of back stuff throughout his career and kind of always been able to play through it. A- a- and while that may be true, e- each one of these is kind of unique and different on its own, right? 10:57 And you just don't know where this is gonna go. With it being a disc, yeah, you get a little worried. And no matter what, every single time that he's had to deal with something, he was either 33 or 34. Yeah, right. 11:06 Exactly. Or 30... Now he's 37 years old. And we know it. You get older, tougher to recover, tougher to come back from. We talked a little bit about Justin Jefferson as well. Wrap him in bubble wrap. 11:15 Okay, he's back at practice for the Vikings. It was a hamstring injury. You wanted to take absolutely zero chances. 11:20 I imagine he's gonna be doing very little work over the next week and a half, as it is anyway for this Vikings team. But he was back out there, and if you're a Vikings backer, you gotta feel good. 11:28 Yeah, you gotta feel great. You also... It's pre- a- it's pre-season. You have no idea how hurt he might've, he might've actually been or not hurt, [laughs] right? He might've just been taking it easy, recovering. 11:36 Some interesting developments in Major League Baseball last night. Some teams were given opportunities. They did not take advantage of them. And did we wrap up the Cy Young race over in the NL? 11:47 Talk about all that when we come back on Numbers Game here on VSiN. 11:48 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 12:11 Numbers game here on Beastin' the East Sports Betting Network. Matt Brown and Kelly Bidlin. Thanks for being with us here on a Tuesday morning. 12:18 Channel 158 over on Sirius XM, YouTube TV, our very own Beastin' Watch app, terrestrial stations across this great country- Yep... 12:24 of ours, Kelly Bidlin, as we sit here and get into- Still waiting for someone to send in a video of them consuming it, but, uh, always possible. Yeah, I mean- The show, yeah... yeah. Come on, man. 12:34 There's, there's all kinds of ways that you can watch this thing, and we do appreciate you guys giving us a little bit of your time. Paul Skenes goes out versus the Blue Jays yesterday. 12:41 Goes six innings, gives up five hits. He walks one. He did give up two earned, but eight Ks in that one. We talked a little bit yesterday with Paul Sporar, whether we thought that this thing was wrapped up or not. 12:51 Then you go out, you get this dominant start from Skenes against the first-place team in the AL East, and I think now, even though the odds themselves did not change, I do think this one now is, is, is wrapped up. Yeah. 13:06 He got lit up, maybe. Maybe there was some hope for Chris Sanchez, maybe. But he didn't. It was the first-place team in the division. Eight Ks in six innings, gets the win, beats them, you know. So I just don't... 13:21 I, I, I don't know if somebody can catch up right now. So right now you've got, yeah, Skenes minus 425. Yeah, the odds really have not moved at all, right? Sanchez plus 280. I think they're exactly the same. 13:31 We were talking about it yesterday. I think the way... What, what's always interesting, I think this is kind of to your point. Mm-hmm. We get to this time of year, we could t- we could talk about how much runway is left. 13:41 Um, and there's still a fair amount in the season as a whole, but when you're talking starting pitchers, right, i- it's just how many starts do you actually have left? Yeah. 13:47 And that is much different than how many games that your team has left. And I thought, you know, there was... 13:52 In, in a case that I did make about Skenes and being a little bit skeptical was, with this team being so far out of contention for anything, would they just completely roll him back, right? Yeah. 14:05 Yeah, he's not gonna not start, but he only goes three or four innings, something like that, you know. And I... But that's not what they're doing with him. 14:10 I think they do think it's important for him to win the Cy Young Award. So I think that that is another one of th- the factors that's playing in to all this for the fan base, too. 14:19 Give them at least a little bit of something to get excited about. It feels, it feels like it's that as much as anything. 14:24 But I, I mean, there's no- 'Cause there ain't a lot to be excited about if you're the- No, there's not... if you're a Pirates fan. There's not. 14:28 I mean, and you were, you were saying, I believe the last time you filled in on this show- Yeah... we were talking about this with Skenes. 14:33 I, I mean, and you were not the only baseball bettor thinking that, I know that much, of really expecting Skenes to be dialed back, uh, with innings and workload here down the stretch. I just... 14:42 It hasn't happened, and, uh, I, I don't know. I guess I applaud the Pirates [laughs] for doing it. Yeah. They actually... I mean, they didn't... It's for, if, if it's not for the fans, who is it for? Right. Right? 14:51 'Cause, like, it's not... It, it, it would be the safe thing to dial him back. It would. It would. 14:56 And [laughs] I think that there's, there's, there's probably, like, super, super, super into it smart fans who are going, "W- we don't need this Cy Young." Right, [laughs] right. Exactly. 15:03 "We need this dude around, like, with a good arm, like, for, for more than a year." You mean, you mean like- Yeah... any Bengals or Commanders fan- Yeah... watching that game last night- Yeah... 15:10 where it's like, "Just get Burrow out of the game. Why is Ja'Daean Thomas running for touchdowns?" 15:13 We talked about missed opportunities, because the Pirates did go out behind Skenes and beat the Blue Jays, who are first in that division. However, the Red Sox could not get it done against the Orioles. 15:22 The, yes, the 58 and 67 Orioles beat the Red Sox six to three. So the Red Sox do not gain any ground on a, a, a win that, again, you're... 15:31 You gotta, you gotta take advantage of when the Pirates are beating the Blue Jays, you know. Yeah. One of the worst teams in Major League Baseball is getting it done against the division leader. 15:38 But the, uh, Orioles six to three there in that one. So Red Sox do not do anything. 68 and 58 on the season for them. Yankees and Red Sox both five back of the Blue Jays right now. 15:49 Néstor Cortés gave up three home runs in the first inning. Nice. And then just shut them down after that. [laughs] So it's just, like, the weirdest thing. 15:57 He comes out, gives up three bombs in the first inning to the Giants, and the Giants don't score again the entire game, but they still beat the Padres four to three. 16:05 So the Padres, talking about teams not taking advantage of opportunities, do not take advantage of the fact that, yeah, the Dodgers lost. Not only did the Dodgers lose, the Dodgers lose to the Rockies. 16:18 So it's another one of those scenarios, Kelly, where you get a bottom feeder beating one of the teams that you're, that you're chasing can't get it done. 16:26 So the Rockies win four to three over the Dodgers, but can't get anything from the Padres, and after getting swept, now four in a row lose, uh, losses for this team. Yeah. Yeah. It's, uh, man, this is gonna be wild. 16:36 Two, two game lead for the Dodgers up on the Padres in the west. I... We saw them k- It looked like they were gonna get back on track with beating up on the Padres over the weekend. You go and drop that. 16:45 Man, it's another big series with the Padres this weekend upcoming. Supposed to be a double header yesterday. Didn't get it done because of the weather. The Brewers shut out the Cubs seven to nothing in the first game. 16:54 That extended their lead to nine in the NL Central, so instead we'll play a double dip today there in that one. Toronto Blue Jays in that game did have Vlad, uh, Guerrero Jr. 17:04 have some sort of hamstring tightness in that one. They're going to get an MRA t- MRI today, in his words, to air quote, "rule out everything". Yeah. 'Cause he doesn't think anything's wrong. 17:14 He just thinks he- Yeah, well, he tried to come back in the game- Yeah... right? And then got pulled, so yeah. We- we'll see, but, I mean, if, if you're a Blue Jays fan, something to keep your eye on. 17:21 [laughs] Yeah, it's, it's a, it's, it's a thing. Yeah, right. [laughs] Yeah, I mean, it's definitely a thing. You're not, uh, you're not jumping up and down about that one at all, for sure. 17:27 So again, some teams that could have taken advantage, uh, yesterday did not get it done, so we'll see what goes on from there. We do have some interesting games today. The Astros and the Tigers. 17:38 This Tigers team took care of business last night. 10 to nothing over this Astros team. But this pitching matchup is really what people are gonna be focusing on today, Kelly Bidlin. 17:46 Hunter Brown and Tarik Skubal are going at it here in this one. Two of the better pitchers in the American League. Two of the better pitchers in all of Major League Baseball, actually. 17:54 Hunter Brown has given up one, two, one, and one earned runs over his last four starts. 18:01 Kind of the opposite here, at least a little bit, for Skubal, who's given up three, four, and three over his last three starts and, you know, very un-Skubal-like, for sure. 18:11 Th- this Tigers team kinda let you know where they're sitting. They're getting these really good performances from, from Skubal, Kelly, but They have one win in his last seven starts- Yeah... 18:20 because this bullpen is so bad. They have a 4.34 xFIP over the last three weeks. They're walking batters at a 12% clip. 18:30 You cannot be walking batters at a 12% clip whenever you're, uh, whenever you're bringing, uh, you know, these bullpen guys in, trying to lock down games for Skubal. 18:39 They're getting by, and the only reason they're not just getting thumped is they're getting by. They have a 2.07 BABIP against. That is absurdly low. 18:47 We know that this fluctuates by three or four points, but you can just kinda say as a general number, it's about 300. About 300 bat, uh, batting average ball in play is what you get against you. 18:58 They're getting 2.07 right now. As you can imagine, that is the lowest in Major League Baseball over the last three weeks by 32 points. Oof. The next closest BABIP against is 32 points better than this- [laughs]... 19:13 right now. So you can see how they are ru- ru- running on the right side of variance just a ton here in this one. Well, Kelly, I'm going to say that that variance flips around today. 19:21 You're getting a decent price here on the Astros. Hunter Brown has been as good as Skubal has been over the last month, so I'm going to take the dog price here at plus 150 on this Astros team. So give me the Astros. 19:33 I know you don't wanna go up against Skubal, but like I said, one win in his last seven starts because his bullpen has not been good. Astros at plus 150. Yeah. 19:42 Uh, li- uh, I like to stand by you, and market's following you. This is mainly down to plus 135, plus 140 range. I see a plus 145 out there. You got plus 150, right, when I came? Ooh. See, this is why you gotta... 19:53 Sometimes you gotta bet the night before. That's right. [laughs] Sometimes you do. Sometimes you gotta bet the night before. Sometimes you do. And as I've, uh, keep telling Gil, you're just... 19:58 If you're the Tigers, Skubal's just gonna have to pitch every inning. Yeah, basically. Yeah Go out there and just get it done. Complete game every time. 20:04 Complete game every si- yeah Every time Complete game every single time. Another interesting game, Mariners and the Phillies. This is, uh, Bryce Miller being activated off of the IL for this Mariners team. 20:13 He has not pitched since June the 6th, so we'll see what he looks like coming off of that long layoff. 20:18 Chris Sanchez, we just mentioned, the guy who is sitting second right now in the Cy Young race, but I think it's a distant, distant second after what we've seen from Skeans. Uh, he's gonna go. 20:28 Last five starts for this guy, absolutely lights out. 2.99 xERA, just a mini- a 3%, 2.9% walk rate. So he gives you nothing. He's going out, he's battling each and every time here. This Mariners team, of course, 20:43 I thought that they were gonna fall off, and they're not falling off. Yeah And they just continue to kinda hang around and hang- Hang around... around. And so, 20:53 uh, I don't have a play here in this one because I don't really know what Bryce Miller's gonna look like coming off of the IL. 21:00 I guess if anything, I would be going against him, thinking that he might be a little rusty after the month and a half layoff. But, uh, nope, no actual formal play here. Big, bigger threat 21:11 in baseball, win a World Series, Mariners or Phillies? The F- well, it's the Phillies- Wow, that was gonna be a quick, a quick Phillies call. 21:18 Well, I'll tell you, it was the Phillies, It was the Phillies until about a week ago. By the way, Wheeler did have surgery, and it's no timeline available- Yeah... is what they're saying right now, so. Good call. 21:26 No, no, no timeline on him for that one. I mean, y- listen, if Miller looks good, you've got Wu, you've got... 21:32 I mean, that, that, the pitching staff for the Mariners is, is really good too to go along with them being pretty good, uh, uh, swinging the bat. 21:38 Finally, the, the Brewers and the Cubs, we mentioned there's gonna be a twin bill there in that one. 21:42 It looks like as we sit right now, and it is 7:30 in the morning on the p- on the, on the West Coast out here, but it does look like the wind is gonna be blowing in there in both of those games. 21:52 We know Wrigley, the most affected ballpark in all of baseball when it comes to, to wind. It looks like 10 to 12 miles an hour blowing in there in that one. So do with that, do with that what you will. 22:03 Yeah, right now I'm looking at totals, total of seven in both games. Yeah. So do with that what you will. 22:08 I mean, it's, it's not an auto play, the whole wind thing or something, but I, I, I mean, at Wrigley it is just, it is so incredibly important- Yeah... when you get that wind blowing in. Yeah, it matters. 22:19 So I just, you know, for me, total of seven, though, probably a stay away. 22:24 But, uh, I, I think maybe from a prop perspective, some of the stuff you might could look at should be helping out these pitchers a decent amount. 22:31 Kelly Biblin, we have the NFC North, and it is a division that I think some people might be sleeping on, who I think is still clearly the best team in that division, and I back that up with my hard-earned dollars. 22:44 Ooh, okay. I like it. NFC North when we come back here on the Numbers Game. 22:47 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 23:09 Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Sorry. If you tune in tomorrow, you're gonna get me again. Get me the next day. 23:16 And you get, and get me again on Thursday, and get me again on Friday as well. Gil will be back in on Monday. So for all of you people that hate listening to, to me and Kelly on the desk, Gil will be back in on Monday. 23:28 Yep. Gotta wait till Monday. But I mean, listen, you know, look at, look at... I mean, we're buddies. We got a g- nice rapport, you know? 23:34 Like, I can tell people about all of your, you know, slipping out the side door and stuff whenever we go out- [laughs]... and like, you know, not... Just all your little- One time, man... all your little quirks. 23:43 One time. Oh, y- one time. One time in the last one time that we went out. You've done that, like, five times. [laughs] Oh, yeah. That's a thing. Like you've never done it. That's like a thing. 23:50 Yeah, you've never done it. That's like a thing for you. If you haven't done so, you start your day over at vsin.com because we have articles up for all of the different sports that are out there. 23:59 This is one of the things that, you know, you get when you become a VSiN Pro subscriber. 24:03 You head over to vsin.com, you can get going for as little as 9.99 to everything that we could do, and you get tennis, you get horse racing, you get all of the golf stuff. 24:12 You get everything that you don't really have time to handicap yourself. You can even get some UFC stuff over there from Lou Finaccaro as well. So vsin.com/subscribe, get going for as little as 9.99. 24:24 Kelly Biblin, it is the NFC North. And the NFC North is a division in which everybody seems to want to make a case for everybody except for the Lions. 24:35 And I do understand that the Lions have a coaching, uh, ha- have a, a giant gap in the coaching staff whenever you look at what, uh, Ben Johnson was able to do with them over the last couple of seasons. 24:47 That said, if you look at the talent in the roster that is on this Detroit Lions team, I think that people are being a little too quick to try to crown one of these other teams in the division. 24:58 I'm not as high on the Packers as most people are. That said, I know a lot of people are making a case for the Packers. The Vikings, I've not seen it with J.J. McCarthy. 25:06 While I trust Kevin O'Connell and do believe he's one of the best coaches in football, and he was gonna go with J.J. McCarthy last year- Yeah... until he got hurt, I haven't seen it with my own eyes. 25:15 Hard for me to get there. The Bears did everything right on paper, and I've seen two drives, I've seen two series of what it can do. 25:26 It looked great, but that's super incredibly tiny, minimal sample size for me to try to get there on that as well. So I don't know why we're trying so hard to take this crown away from the Lions. Yeah. 25:38 I, well, I, I think there's, I, I think there's reason to get excited if you're, if you are a fan of any of these other teams, right? I think you can see how close you are with the Packers, and I do think they're... 25:49 I think they're close. Have they, did they do enough this off-season to kind of push this team over that edge? I, I don't know. Um, and Jordan Love continuing to stay healthy is gonna be a big factor. 25:59 I understand, when you've seen Kevin O'Connell do this with multiple quarterbacks, I understand the excitement, uh, to get there with the Vikings a- and with what Brian Flores has done with that defense. 26:09 And the fact that just those two are still together, right? Uh, like I, I think there is something to make about the coordinators leaving town in Detroit and how much that could affect this team. 26:17 I think it's a big deal when you g- when you get those guys staying in Minnesota year after year, and I, I don't really know that that's gonna change for the next couple years. 26:26 And then the Bears, you get Ben Johnson over from Detroit. You obviously saw what he did last year. I think there's reason to be excite- excited if you're any of these other fan bases. 26:33 Honestly, Matt, I haven't made a, I haven't made a bet in this division. I haven't made a bet, a win total bet. I haven't made a division bet. 26:39 I think this is one of the toughest divisions we're gonna see in football this year. Um, and, and you can see it from the win total, right? 10 and a half from the Lions, down to eight and a half with the Bears. 26:47 They, I mean, their... Oddsmakers don't think there's a huge difference between these four teams either. Yeah. I just, I look at the, I look at the, the Lions, and I think player for player, 26:59 it would be tough for someone to convince me that one of these lineups and, and one of these teams is better, right? I mean, you've got, you still have a very good offensive line. 27:07 I understand that it's not completely intact, but you still have a very good offensive line, specifically at the tackle positions and the blind side guard position- Yep... 27:14 which is something that you care about a ton there when you have Jared Goff at quarterback. Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Laporta. 27:22 I, I mean, it, it, Patrick, the, the Tesla guy that is like, that they drafted is, like, looking like a- Yeah... like, like an absolute stud out there. 27:31 With this, then on the defensive side of the ball, you get one of the, one of the biggest pickups in the off-season that you can possibly get, which is just having Aidan Hutchinson return. 27:40 People forget at what a disruptor and how awesome this dude is at getting to the quarterback and getting guys off timing. And, you know, you didn't get very much of that last year. Mm-hmm. 27:50 And now he gets to come back fully healthy a- and, and play with a defense that is pretty good at every level. I mean, yeah, one of the corner positions maybe lacks a little bit for you there. 28:01 But outside of that, I mean, I, I, I like, I like really m- top to bottom, and unless this just coaching staff can't coach at all, which by the way, on the defensive side of the ball, Kelvin Sheppard is taking over. 28:12 He's been there. So this is a promotion from within. Kelvin Sheppard has been with this Lions team for, for a while, so I mean, he knows these players. He knows the scheme. He knows whatever. 28:21 I understand different styles and things like that will certainly play out, but this isn't one of those, like, c- completely new hires. Mm. Shep- Sheppard's been there. 28:29 Should be some continuity on the defensive side, that we saw them play a little bit better last year as well. So I don't know, man. I, I am... Tough for me. I played them in the division. 28:37 I'm not as high on the Packers, though. Like, where, where do you stand? Yeah, this, so this is- Where do you stand on the Packers? So this is where- 'Cause I'm not as high on them... 28:42 just to wrap it, all, all three of these teams. Yeah. I, I, I get it if you are very pro Detroit, very pro Minnesota. 28:48 I think what, like what you said with Minnesota, I feel like I kinda need to see it again from Detroit. So I, I, I'm not gonna be one of those people running to bet against them. 28:57 But the, uh, the offensive line losses and the coordinator changes are enough to make me wonder, a- and to wonder wh- where they'll be when you look at a division where I think there's some promise i- in Minnesota and possibly Chicago, and Green Bay that, that we know has a, has a talented roster and returns a lot of those same pieces. 29:16 So I, I, look, I think they've got the best quarterback in the division. I think Jordan Love is that guy. Um, I, in the, in the recent NFL betting guide, I did have the Packers win- winning the division. 29:27 Um, a- and just real quick to wrap up a couple thoughts on Detroit. [laughs] Look, if they're... The market is gonna be a little down on Detroit heading into this year. I got this note from Cleve TA. 29:35 How about cover the spread 75% last year, third straight season Detroit has gone over 70%? 29:42 So I, I, if market's high on them again, you're gonna get a chance to do that, uh, to, to go, uh, bet, bet, bet on them, uh, once again. Look, Packers, yeah, uh, look, the defense has gotta play g- good again. 29:55 I think you could say that about Detroit, and I don't know if there's that ex... You know, I don't know if that can fully happen. 30:00 My other big question is what i- what is this wide receiver room with Green Br- Green Bay, right? Like, there's a lot... I feel like- Yeah... there's some good wide receivers. Are there any great wide receivers? 30:09 Are there any wide receivers that can stay healthy? 'Cause if they can, Matt, I, I do think this is a very, very powerful offense. I'm worried about the offensive line with them. 30:17 And, like, I don't know if the wide receivers are gonna really even matter. They brought in Aaron Banks to play left guard. Their first-round pick in Jordan Morgan's gonna play right guard. 30:25 He wasn't very good as a rookie. Elton Jenkins has to move to center because they're having to reshuffle everything. Zach Tom's really good. Yeah. So you have one really, really good offensive lineman. 30:34 But I- A reshuffled offensive line. I, I, I don't know, man. I, it's, like you said, with the, with the way that this, the way that receiving corps stacks up to, you just have a bunch of twos and threes. Mm-hmm. 30:46 That's what it is. It's a bunch of twos and threes. And you need someone to s- Where's the one, you know?... need someone to step up, and I don't really know that that guy's there. 30:52 I, I don't think Matthew Golden's that guy. I, but, you know, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he is. Um- Yeah, I'm, I'm drinking the Bears Kool-Aid, and I, I, and, and it's just, it's crazy that I'm saying this. 31:01 I'm going to give Caleb Williams the benefit of the doubt that there was such poor coaching and a, such a poor offensive line last year that we didn't really see what we could, what, what he could actually be. 31:12 But you bring in Ben Johnson, you overhaul the offensive line. Joe T- trade for Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson. You, you sign Drew Dalman to play center for you. On defense, they bring in Grady Jarrett. Uh, it's, it's... 31:24 I mean, there's just a lot. They used draft picks on Colston Loveland to give him another weapon on the offensive side of the ball. Luther Burden looks like he might be able to play for them. I, I just... 31:35 I don't know, man. I, I am a believer in Ben Johnson. 31:38 I'm a believer in what they did with this roster, and as long as Caleb Williams isn't, isn't just bad, which I guess there's, there's a range of outcomes in which he is. Yeah. 31:47 But I'm blaming a lot of that on the coaching and that roster construction last year. And so I'm kind of buying into what this... 31:55 The only problem is, too, is just the schedule for the Bears is, like, it's a super balanced schedule, so there's no point where you, there's no point where you look at the schedule, Kelly, and go, "Well, there's, like, three or four wins in a row for them." 32:05 Mm-hmm. There, there, there isn't that in that schedule. So it's just like, can they, can they, can they handle this kind of up, down, up, down all season long? Yeah. 32:12 I, I mean, look, I've got questions about, still about the defense, how good is the defense gonna be. And I, this is another one. We talked about this yesterday. 32:19 Um, but just differences of where they ra- where, where they ranked kind of at the red zone and outside the red zone was a big difference last year. 32:27 Um, and, a- and that if they can kind of close the gap there, maybe they can be better. I think a big question with those offen- I... The offensive line adds additions I cannot be upset about. 32:37 Obviously, you need help there, a- and you gotta keep Caleb Williams, uh, upright. The question is matter is it, are they good? You know, I mean, I, I... How good of offensive line upgrades did you make? 32:47 I think it's good to get bo- I mean, Joe Thuney's very good... I, I think it's good to get bodies in there, but I, like- Like, Joe Thuney's very good. Like, we know that for sure. Braxton Jones is, is good. 32:55 We know that for sure. Um, Joe Dalman at center is one of the better centers in the league, if you believe in, like, kind of the PFF stuff- Yeah... and, and, and things like that. 33:03 I mean, I, I think his offensive line's a top 10 offensive line in, in, in- That's where you have them rated at?... in the league. Yeah. Okay. And so... But, but again, it goes back to schedule. 33:10 It's just Vikings, Lions. You do get, like, a little two-game deal with Cowboys and Raiders, but then it's Commanders, back down to the Saints, back up to the Ravens. Mm-hmm. Cincinnati. Okay, there's the Giants. 33:21 Now you're back at the, now you're back on the road at the Vikings. Like, it's, there's nothing, there's no spot where you look at and go, "Oh, well there's a... 33:28 That's where they can rattle off three or four wins," you know? Yeah. That's the problem. Therein lies the problem, you know? Guys, if you haven't done First Bet already, head on over there. 33:36 That's where we bet our horses over there, Kelly. That's right. Have you done FirstBet.com? 1STBET.com. Go in. VCEN250 is your code. You can get up to a $250 signup offer over there. 33:47 Not only can you bet the races, you can watch them right there in the app, FirstBet.com, 1STBET.com. 34:09 [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Brown in for Gil here this week as we get the breaking news that the tour schedule, PGA Tour, that is, 34:26 announced for the 2026 season. We are making a return to Doral this year. What? Really? Yes. For what tournament? 34:37 I'm guessing the Miami Championship, 'cause one of the nine signature events is called the Miami Championship. Okay. So I'm guessing it's going to be that one, would be my guess. Did that just come out of nowhere? 34:50 Was, was I supposed to know that? No. I, um, it seems like that [laughs] kind of came out of nowhere, for sure. So- Wait, what are the [laughs]... What signature eve- event are they replacing? I don't know. 34:58 So we have the s- the, the, the Sentry, the, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Genesis, the Arnold Palmer, the RBC Heritage. Now we have the Miami Championship. What's the date on it? That is, uh, April 27 to May the 3rd. 35:14 Okay. Uh, Truist, the Memorial, and then the Travelers are gonna be your, uh, signature events for the upcoming season. All right. Yeah. Well- 35 official FedEx point total events on the calendar. 35:34 Seems light. [laughs] I'm just- It, it feels like we do long shots more than 35 times a year, a year. [laughs] It, it does feel... It does, it does feel like that. It does feel like that, for sure. 35:42 New long shot's up later today for the Tour Championship. Yes. If anyone wants to tune in, just hear me say Scotty Scheffler's gonna win. Dude, the odds are silly. Have, have you looked at this? He's gonna win. 35:51 I mean, I know we talked about it light- lightly yesterday, but I, I heard, I heard [laughs] Dave Ross, uh, buy the books earlier, a little confused at what he was looking at with odds. I get it, man. Like, I get it. 36:01 Scotty Scheffler is plus 150 in a 30-man field. I... It is gonna be easy to look down the board and be attracted by some numbers. I get it. So the, uh... Real quick here, and then we'll move on. 36:11 Got some NFL award market stuff that we wanna talk about here. But the, uh, adjustments to the schedule, the Genesis is gonna return to Riviera. 36:18 Obviously, there was the wildfires last year, so they had to hold that one at Torrey. The Truist is returning to Quail Hollow. Of course, they didn't do that because the PGA was there last year. 36:27 They are spending consecutive weeks in the Dallas-Fort Worth area with the CJ Cup, Byron Nelson, and then the Charles Schwab in back-to-back weeks. So we got that going on. 36:36 The Rocket Classic is moving from, uh, late June until the end of July. So July 27 to August the 2nd for the Rocket Classic now. Okay. We can move that a little bit later. Feels like sle- slight adjustments to all those. 36:49 Yes. Which feels like every golf season, and I never fully understand why. It's, uh, the Miami championship being added to the regular season schedule. 36:57 That means the Vedanta World Mexican Open will now be contested as part of the fall schedule. Oh, we did know that was moving. Yes. So that makes sense. Okay, now that makes sense. 37:07 But it's not in the normal Florida swing time. Yeah. It's after that- Yeah... which is a little odd. So that's where we're, uh, that's where we're at with all that. 37:15 Of course, we'll, we'll dig into that a little bit further, maybe have some thoughts on that tomorrow when we do- Yeah, I wanna talk some golf tomorrow for sure... after we, after we get that in. 37:21 It's just coming through the Twitter machine, you know, so we're just... We're, we're, we're trying to react on the fly here. Well, and thanks for Danny back there sending me one. Actually, I think Danny left. 37:28 I just don't even think he's back there in the control room anymore. Uh- Ooh... Ian Rapoport. There it is. There it is. I was right, baby. Daniel Jones is your Colts starter- There it is... 37:38 as the organization makes a dramatic shift away from Anthony Richardson. Woo-hoo-hoo-hoo, I love my bet. You're not gonna be able to get that bet in now. You better get it in right this second. 37:49 I was gonna, I'm gonna try during the next break. Yeah. Yes, I'm, I'm following you on that one. You better go. Um- It felt like they were gonna go in that direction. All right. 37:56 So where- It really felt like it was gonna go in that direction... where are you going from here, though, if you are the Colts with Anthony Richardson? I mean, you, you basically just waved the white flag, right? Yeah. 38:07 I, I mean, if you're not even gonna try to get him out on the field week one, y- you're done, right? You're done with Anthony Richardson. Again, we talked about this yesterday. 38:15 Tyler Warren, over 525 and a half receiving r- uh, receiving yards on the season. The... I love that bet. I mean, absolutely- Yeah. Well, me too... love that bet now with Daniel Jones. 38:26 Like- We're going to try to tail you. Yeah. With Daniel Jones in at quarterback, I think that bet is... I mean, like I said, I have him with, at Jo- with Jones at quarterback, I have him closer to 650. 38:34 There's a pretty huge, pretty huge edge in my opinion there for, uh, for Warren. 38:39 I think he's gonna be a huge chain mover for them, and, and, uh, Daniel Jones is gonna take advantage of having that just, you know, mis- I mean, he's gonna be a mismatch for almost anyone trying to cover him. 38:48 Is Anthony Richardson on this roster at the start of the season? Yes. So here's the deal. 38:55 So- You don't think there's some teams that will come in and try to get, you know, try to get, throw a, I don't even know what, a fourth, fifth-round pick? I mean, I alluded to this yesterday. 39:02 So Irsay's kids are taking over, right, you know, after his passing. Yep. And they said they didn't feel the need to try to rush him into this gig if, if he wasn't ready for it, right? 39:16 And they go- they're like, they said, "We've got him on a rookie contract. It's not like it's this, you know, paying $50 million a year for a guy that's sitting on the bench or anything like that." 39:23 And I, I think it's a decent way to look at it, which is we got a guy that was really raw whenever we drafted. Everybody knew this. 39:30 The whole knock against Anthony Richardson was the fact that he hadn't played very much and his ac- his accuracy was suspect. Mm. And I think we saw that a ton- Mm-hmm... last year. Mm-hmm. 39:39 So maybe they try to develop him for a year and see if he can play. Maybe he can't play. And- He might just can't play... so here's, here's my thing- He might not be the first first rounder that can't play. 39:49 No, yeah, I know. Um, here's my thing on that, though. I think that makes a ton of sense. 39:55 If you have a vet, a vet waiting in the wings that, okay, you've, you're looking at your team and saying, "Hey, there's enough talent here that we could actually m- mess around and maybe make the playoffs this year. 40:06 We need competent quarterback play. Is there... You know, let's start the guy that Anthony Richardson can sit and learn behind." Mm-hmm. I don't... Daniel Jones isn't that guy. I... To me, this is... 40:18 Y- if you're going with Daniel Jones, it, it's just the lesser of two evils in this situation. So there's this little guy, uh, last year. His name was Sam Darnold. Mm-hmm. 40:29 Who had a change of scenery, had a change of coaching staff, and then realized that the pedigree that was behind him was, was not a complete sham, and he pr- and he proved that he could play in the NFL. 40:41 Who is to say that Daniel Jones cannot be Sam Darnold? Yeah, I guess. I'm not there, but yeah, I hear you. I mean, it, it... there's- I don't know if I believe Sam Darnold's gonna be Sam Darnold. [laughs] Yeah. 40:54 I mean, well, true. But, but I mean, it... who could flash in one season? I think that what this also says is as an organization, they look at that division, and they think they can win that division. I, I agree. 41:05 I agree. Like, like I think they think- And, and, and clearly they're higher on Daniel Jones than I am. 41:09 Like, I think they look at what Jacksonville's gonna roll out and, and that Houston Texans offensive line, which is entering the season as the worst offensive line- Yeah... in the league by far. Yeah. 41:18 Like, it is, it is trash. And go, "You know what? We're not worried about the Titans at all. We, we can pick off the Jags and the Texans." I, I think that's what this move tells you- You know, I think-... 41:28 because you can't mess around with Anthony Richardson, right? Right. Like, you can't mess around with it. 41:32 You gotta go in and put the guy in there that you think has the higher floor, and the higher floor is Jones for sure. Yeah. Probably, I mean, probably far lower ceiling, but I mean, higher floor for sure. 41:43 Higher floor for sure, and I, and we don't know on the ceiling, right? Yeah. I, I, I don't... Yeah, I mean, I'll, I'll agree with you on that. 41:48 We don't know on the ceiling 'cause we, we haven't seen it consistently enough from Anthony Richardson for me to sit here and say that. 41:53 But, and, and I think what you're talking about is exactly what the Indianapolis Colts are thinking. I just don't, I don't know if Daniel Jones [laughs] is that guy. I just don't know that he's that guy. 42:03 I, I'm pretty blown away by it. I thought it was gonna be... 'Cause this is... Y- you know, we see this almost every year. You could rule out Anthony Richardson if it's not working. Pul- you know, pull him. 42:14 "Okay, we tried it. We gave him some more run. This is not working." But to make this decision now, it, it's just... 42:21 Man, I think it's really, really damning of A- uh, Anthony Richardson and what his future is probably like here. Texans plus 105, Jags three to one, Colts are plus 370. Of course, this is at DraftKings. 42:32 We say it all the time here on the Network Shop Around. Titans sitting at plus 650 They're in that division. I, I mean- You're backing on the Texans again, right? 42:40 I have the Texans, but it's a, it's the bet I hate, hate the most of all the ones in my account. Ooh, interesting. Okay. I, I'm backing on them again too- Du-... 42:46 but I, I don't see them surviving the way- Dude, the offensive line is trash. Yeah, I know. I mean, it is bad, bad. It was bad last year, and it's worse this year 'cause they got rid of Tunsil. 42:55 I feel- Like it's, it was bad last year, and they got, they got... The only guy that could play- Yeah... they got rid of. 43:00 But that defense, that defense that came on last year, I mean, I expect them to be a top three defense, if not the best defense in the league. No, no, no. 43:07 It's going to be a, it's going to be a top 10, top five, in, in the conversation probably for best defense in the league. And look, I think Stroud bounces back. 43:13 Nico Collins is obviously awesome, but yes, you don't have any offensive at all, offense at all if your offensive line can't play any- Yeah... at all. If he's running- So I, I get, I get the concerns. 43:22 It's like if he's running for his life the whole time, then that is gonna be a major problem. I get the concerns. I still like the bet. I, I don't... 43:29 How many y- I don't know how many years we're gonna get excited about the Jacksonville Jaguars again for them to just fall on their faces. 43:35 I mean, ta- we're talk, we're talking last, last segment about the NFC North and wanting to see it out of some of these teams first. 43:40 Hey, the Minnesota Vikings, I mean, my God, in comparison of, about a franchise and coaching situation that I believe [laughs] in far more than what's happened in Jacksonville over the past few years. 43:51 I, I just, I, I, I, I think it's a very, very weak, weak rest of the AFC South that, that Houston's just gonna be able to take advantage of once again. 43:59 The other thing just that, I understand he is definitely no Anthony Richardson, but there is some rushing upside with Daniel Jones as well. No, there is. Yeah, there is. 44:08 Like I, I, I think this is not one of those deals where you're just completely trading that part of the offense and just let, letting that go. Daniel Jones has some legs. He has some speed. 44:16 He was athletic coming out of college. I mean, that was one of the things that the, the guys that are way better at it than, than you and I, you know, that was one of the things that they said. So I'm... 44:25 Man, if I'm about eight teams in the NFL, I'm sending over a trade proposal today for Anthony Richardson just to see what happens. Guys, if you haven't checked out Sharp Plays, go in. 44:33 They've been doing this since 2011, completely transparent, let you know exactly how those receipts are looking out there, and they'll send you these alerts in real time to your inbox or to your X feed. sharpplays.com. 44:44 [upbeat music]
