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Aug 1, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 1, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 1, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSIN. It is Thursday morning. We are live in downtown Las Vegas.
0:13
I am Jarred, in for Gil today. We have another, uh, substitute teacher, uh, Wyatt Tomchek, our producer, in for Kelly Bidling. Good morning, Wyatt. Good morning, Jarred. How are you doing today? I'm great.
0:23
Um, it is a football Thursday, not quite football Friday yet. I guess technically we can call tomorrow the first football Friday of the season, um, even though there's no football this weekend.
0:32
I, I, I'm kind of a, a sucker for the technicalities. I- But preseason football back tonight. Very excited. I, uh, I would... I told you, I was like, I did the whole rundown.
0:39
I spent a couple hours on it, and then I realized, oh, the Hall of Fame game's today. I don't know why I thought it was, like, a Saturday or Sunday, like, something like that.
0:45
It's always a random day, and there's always nothing else the rest of the week. It's always kind of this standalone entity that's kind of this, uh, this beacon. It's like an oasis in the desert.
0:56
Uh, we have been crawling now for six months since the Super Bowl, um, here in Vegas in February and, and, and it's been a l- it's been quite some time- But you know, I'll-... since we've had football back on our TV.
1:06
I'll blame it on the, I was just so focused on the VSIN College Football Betting Guide that is- Yes... now out today. There you go. There's the plug. Happy betting guide Thursday.
1:13
[laughs] The two biggest stories in sports today, NFL preseason and the College Football Betting Guide. No, actually, the biggest story, uh, and there it is, there, College Football Betting Guide.
1:22
I actually have two write-ups in there, um, and a bunch of other people have, um, some really good information.
1:27
It's one of those things where if you're just waking up today and you're trying to get up to speed on college football as quickly as possible, or in the NFL with our NFL betting guide, it's a very good,
1:41
you know, just primer, I guess is the way to put it. And then there's ways that you can dive deeper into it. But I...
1:47
It's, it's one of those things that, again, I think everyone in our, in our space should at least take a peek at. Do you think it- this year is probably the most important year for anybody trying to bet college football?
1:55
With just so many changes that happened with all the teams going to the Big 10, you know, the best teams probably in the, in the, from the Pac 12 going to the Big 10.
2:03
The Big 12 getting a handful of teams, and now the SEC is just stacked with Texas and Oklahoma. Like, this is probably the most important year, I think, just to understand.
2:12
And also on top of that, you've got the College Football Playoff, now 12-team playoff- Yeah... debuting this year.
2:16
I think that is the most intriguing thing from a betting perspective because I do think, and that is one of my selections in the College Football Betting Guide, is, um, one of the teams that we consider to be a blue blood in college football, uh, to make the playoff at plus money.
2:32
You know, a- and again, you're, you're getting prices.
2:34
I, I likened it to, I, I, I used this metaphor, um, with Dustin Swedelson when I was in, uh, for Patrick last week, and I said it's kinda like Thanksgiving dinner when you're...
2:46
If you ever had a f- big family Thanksgiving dinner. Growing up, I had some smaller gatherings, and then one year we had a bigger one, and my mom was panicking. She didn't know how much food to make.
2:58
She made way too much food, and we had... The amount of leftovers we had this one year was, like, insane, and I kinda likened it to that.
3:05
And I'm not saying the books are completely off with their pricing, but we now go from a four-seat table to a 12-seat table with lots of variables here. Mm-hmm.
3:16
Conference, automatic berths, how many teams get in with three losses. Decent chance one or two teams get in with three losses. Oh, yeah.
3:24
I think there's a good chance somebody from the Big 10 or somebody from the SEC- SEC, I think, is really the culprit here. You, you know what the fun thing is, uh, that I'm gonna...
3:32
Looking forward to this college football season? What team that we think is like a top 15 team is gonna sit there with four or five losses? Because every s- every week their s- uh, their game is just like a gauntlet.
3:42
You know, like somebody in the SEC, say like Ole Miss, for example- Yeah, Ole Miss-... who's got a really talented team... Tennessee, one of those teams.
3:47
I, I- You know- Off the top of my head I can't name them, but sure. Yeah. Like, you know, we look at the Big 10, like, obviously we're, we're big Big 10 guys. You know, Michigan
3:55
has a lot of question marks coming into this year. I know you're a big Penn State fan. It's always can they get over the hump?
4:00
It's like, it's a good possibility they could sit there with four or five losses and still be a team that is, you know, nationally ranked in the top 25. Yeah. I mean, that, that tends to be the case.
4:10
You always get one of those Big 10 teams that just only loses the games that they're dogs in. Mm. It's, it's [laughs] usually Penn State. [laughs] They usually win 10 games. They lose two to Michigan and Ohio State.
4:21
The good news is Michigan's not on the schedule this year. Um- We're, we're- USC is, though, [laughs] on the road. Do you think this is the year that, uh... Well, I mean, USC's obviously big question marks. Who...
4:31
One, who's gonna be the quarterback, and two, obviously their defense. I don't think USC is gonna be as good. I don't think USC is gonna be good.
4:36
Um, w- all of that stuff available in the College Football Betting Guide, though. Very exciting stuff. The lead story today, though, is the NFL. Um, I woke up today to, like, 17...
4:45
So I, I have the top newsmakers in the NFL on my, uh, X notifications. So usually I'm up pretty early. I mean, you know, I'm, for this show I'm usually up by 5:00, 5:30.
4:55
By the time I got up today, I already had like eight, uh, uh, notifications with all of the Tristan, Tristan Wirfs', um, updates. $140 million extension. He's the highest paid offensive lineman in the NFL.
5:08
Good day for the big fellas. Um, I did see, uh, Jeff Schwartz, who I work with over at Fox, say that he wished, uh, Tristan got a little more.
5:16
Former offensive lineman, of course, wanting the most for his, uh, for his brethren. But, uh, Tristan got a massive, massive extension. 88 million of it guaranteed.
5:26
He is now, um, I believe the highest paid player in the history of their franchise, um, if you take the full deal and all the guaranteed money.
5:33
I think Brady had, you know, an, an, an annual, uh, salary higher, but, um, the full, the full monte, of course, uh, Tom s- signed a bunch of those shorter term contracts.
5:42
So Tristan Wirfs now, for lack of a better word, is the big man on campus, uh, in, in, in Tampa. I... So Tampa's an interesting case study this year. So they basically ran back everything from last year.
5:58
Um, they didn't make any significant additions in the off-season. They lost a little bit defensively. Shaq Barrett, I think, is the big name, um, defensively that they're gonna miss. I would say Carlton Davis as well.
6:08
Um- There's, there's some, there's some downside risk, I think, with Tampa this year. Interesting. The interior of the offensive line is not as good. Wors is a stud, but so is Trent Williams in the Niners offensive line.
6:23
The rest of it's absolute trash. And I don't... I mean, do, do you think Baker's gonna be able to run it back? Like, do what he did again last year, which was one of the most efficient years of his career?
6:33
Like, he's never had good years back to back. But good for Tristan Wirfs. I think this is the big name of, that, that Tampa wanted to get signed.
6:40
But I, I, I don't feel very bullish on Tampa Bay this year to win a lot of games. Well, it's smart.
6:44
When you got a, an offensive lineman like Tristan Wirfs, who's made the Pro Bowl three times in his young NFL career, lock him up and, and make him the highest paid, uh, offensive lineman because he deserves it.
6:55
To go on Baker Mayfield, ugh, I, I've been a big fan of Baker ever since he was at Oklahoma. He... It was a pleasant surprise for him and the Buccaneers last year 'cause everyone thought, "Well, they lost Brady.
7:07
It's kinda... Is Baker kind of a one-year rental? They're probably gonna get a top 10 pick, use it on a quarterback." And Baker played pretty well. I think the big thing is that they brought Mike Evans back.
7:17
If you look at, at underrated wide receivers who don't get the love, Mike Evans has had 1,000 yards every season. And look at the quarterbacks that he's had.
7:25
I know he's had Brady, but he had Jameis Winston, who threw a pick every five times, and, and Baker, who is trying to revitalize his career. So the NFC South is, is real tough this year, Jared. I really don't know.
7:37
Like, I, I wanna think that Atlanta's gonna be the, the team to beat, uh, as they, they put all their chips into Kirk Cousins, but man, Atlanta just burned me so many times last year betting, I just can't...
7:48
I, I gotta see it to believe it with them. Tampa was really good against the number last year after being really bad the prior year. Um, they had the third-best cover rate in the league last year.
7:59
And in '22, they only covered 25% of their games. So they went from a 25% ATS rate in '22 to 65% last year.
8:12
Um, that is a massive, massive upswing in market expectations. Odds are they will not cover... I, I, here, here's my prediction for Tampa this year. They will cover fewer games than they...
8:28
They won't cover fewer games than they will cover. They will have a worse season below 500 ATS. Will they win some of those games outright? It's possible.
8:39
They are favored by more than three, um, three times this year, including the opener against Washington.
8:47
They're also favored by more than a field goal against Denver, which is in week three, and then later in the year when they play Carolina at home. There's... I wouldn't bet over seven and a half wins. I wouldn't.
8:59
I, I, I think nine is kind of, like, the absolute max ceiling, which means eight and nine is very possible, and eight and nine is winning season. And it's... Or excuse me, it's a winning bet. But
9:14
I wouldn't be shocked if it's seven and 10, or less than that. I wouldn't be shocked if eight and nine or nine and eight wins the NFC South this year. In fact, I think nine wins gets you that division. I honestly do.
9:24
Well, it's been like that the last couple years, right? Yeah. It's been, it's just the division that nobody wants to win. It's been a very low... Like, th- it...
9:31
Wou- would any of you be shocked if Carolina went worst to first this year in that division?
9:36
If there's, like, of all of the eight divisions in the NFL, I guess if you exclude Cincinnati, which was such a weird last place team last season, it's really hard to fathom.
9:48
And, and that, we talked about it yesterday, that division has the highest compression with first to last in terms of their win total. It's like 10 and a half, eight and a half.
9:55
Well, yeah, it was a, a division that al- [laughs] It's like-... everybody finished above 500. Yeah, so I, I think worst to first there, relatively speaking, is different.
10:02
Carolina is like the Drex number one pick type stuff. I don't... I wouldn't be shocked if they went worst to first. Well, if that happens, Dave Canales will be coach of the year by, by a mile.
10:14
That's why I pick Dave Canales Coach of the Year. [laughs] And don't b- And that's the thing, if you're gonna bet that, don't bet Carolina to win the division, which is like 10, 11 to one.
10:22
Bet Canales to win Coach of the Year, which is 20 to one. I mean, it's just, it, it...
10:25
We're not gonna get a, a, a situation like last year with DeMeco Ryans, because DeMeco Ryans, in any normal year, wins Coach of the Year in a landslide.
10:33
But because Joe Flacco came off the couch and, uh, and did what he did, it, it went to Stefanski. So yeah, uh, it's a good day for the Bucs, but I don't know if it's a great day for the team.
10:44
I just, I feel like I'm still... I feel the same about the team as I did yesterday, even before the signing. Well, we like to kinda measure teams first five weeks.
10:51
Obviously, you got the markets up at DraftKings, what's kind of the record for each team after five weeks. I look at this schedule for the Bucs, I think there's a good possibility they could be four and one.
11:01
They lose to the... Wait, that means they're beating the Eagles and the Lions in one of those games? Who are they beating between the Eagles and the Lions? Oh, oh, I think they, they'll lose to the Lions.
11:09
I think they could potentially get the Eagles. I mean, they did it in the playoffs. They're not beating the E- they're not beating the Eagles.
11:13
I mean, we just don't know with this Philadelphia team- They're not beating the Eagles... but it's a possibility. I will make a side bet with you right now. Money- Money line, I will lay whatever you want.
11:21
That Philly win- Week four could be pretty huge... that is a massive playoff revenge game. [laughs] That is, Philly was embarrassed in the playoffs last year. They will be so up for that game.
11:32
Wyatt and I already have a side bet on the NFL season. Some other under-the-radar news in the NFL that I think is more impactful than Tristan Wirfs. What am I talking about?
11:42
I'll tell you on the other side of Numbers Game Visa.
11:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, here we go.
12:02
College Football Betting Guide is out right now. Do not wait. Go check it out. Um, we've got all kinds of power ratings, picks, previews, predictions.
12:10
Uh, Pro, as in become a VSiN Pro subscriber, get all access to all the betting tools, including that beautiful betting guide, College Football Guide, out now. And our previously released NFL guide also is out.
12:21
Only way for you to get the guides and everything we have to offer, become a VSiN Pro subscriber. You can do exactly that at vsin.com/subscribe Jared Smith, Wyatt Tomchek here with you on a Thursday.
12:34
It is a numbers game. All right, let's transition to a story that I think is significantly more impactful than Tristan Wirfs. I'm happy for Tristan Wirfs, good day for the big fellas. The O lineman gets paid.
12:46
But we are now starting to get news and releases of rule changes in the NFL. All the rage, of course, is the kickoff rule. That will be very impactful. We've known about that for a long time.
13:01
Well, overnight, um, I saw this story over at Pro Football Talk, and it caught my eye because I was reading an Athletic article by Ted Nguyen, who does a great job, uh, analyzing football for us here on the network.
13:11
I talked to him on Vsin last week.
13:13
So last week I read an article that Ted wrote on The Athletic talking about cheat motion, and he did an article, and basically what it said was he went around and asked coaches what were the defensive...
13:26
Or he asked defensive coaches what were the offensive gimmicks that were run last year that is, that are keeping them up at night trying to defend, trying to counter against.
13:39
If you recall a few years ago when Mahomes made his splash, teams adjusted by starting playing a lot of two deep, umbrella coverage. Keep everything in front. Don't let Tyreek Hill run behind you.
13:49
Well, eventually that, you know, got sniffed out. And Kansas City started running the ball a little bit more, and, and, you know, things adjust, things change.
13:56
Last year there was a nuance in the motion rules that two teams took advantage of, the Dolphins and the 49ers.
14:07
Really, Kyle Shanahan is the one who kind of coined this phrase during a press conference last October, where he called it cheat motion.
14:15
And basically what cheat motion is, if you're, remember the CFL rules, if you're familiar with them. In the CFL, you can get a running start towards the line of scrimmage before the snap, and it's legal.
14:27
Can't do that in the NFL. Can't moving, can't be moving towards the line of scrimmage. But there's no rule against lateral movement at the snap.
14:34
So what the NFL geniuses, Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, started doing is they started putting their fastest player, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, in motion
14:45
horizontally at the snap so that when the ball was snapped, they weren't moving towards the line of scrimmage.
14:52
They were moving laterally, but they were already at full speed, which gave them a significant advantage to do whatever they wanted to do after the snap.
15:01
If you're at full speed and the defenses are flat-footed, even if you're moving laterally, the offensive player, who already has a massive advantage, has a bigger advantage.
15:12
Well, the [laughs] NFL rule book said, no, not so fast. This year, cheat motion is now officially cheating. They have put a rule in, and I'll read you the rule. It's kind of one of those legal mumbo jumbo things.
15:23
And basically what it is, rule seven, article four, section two.
15:26
"Any eligible backfield player who changes his stance does not have to come to a complete stop prior to the snap as long as," here's the qualifier, "as long as his actions are not abrupt" [sighs] "or forward."
15:42
Forward we've already hashed out is not something that the Niners or Dolphins are doing. Abrupt... Well, Wyatt, that's where the letter of the law becomes open for interpretation.
15:53
I think this is a valiant effort by NFL owners, most likely, uh, some teams that faced the Dolphins and Niners last year and said, "How are we gonna stop these guys?" I just don't know how you officiate that.
16:07
It's gonna be a very interesting officiating process this year. It's like the, uh, the, they had the ban on the hip drop, uh, tackle. Yes. It's like... [laughs] But that's a little different- Yeah...
16:16
because that's injury. Yeah, yeah, yeah. This is procedure. Yeah, but I think- And it's very open for interpretation. Mm. Just like the hip drop is. Yeah. But this is just such a different animal.
16:25
That, yeah, that's where I think where refs are gonna just have a little bit of trouble figuring out what is the rule and what, you know, what, what is a clean play and what is, nope, this is a penalty.
16:36
We, you know, we've gotta take it back. So I think you're gonna see a few moments early in the we- i- early in, in- Yes... in the weeks where- How it's officiated- Yeah... in preseason's gonna be interesting. Yeah.
16:45
That's why it's the key preseason is to iron, not only iron out stuff for the players- Yes... but also iron out stuff for the officials. And I will be paying very close attention.
16:53
I'm basically gonna be doing a Twitter search every night, 'cause I'm not gonna watch every snap of every game, so I'm not gonna be able to identify when the cheat motion is being used, although I will pay extra attention to the Dolphins and the Niners.
17:05
But here's the but. Now that this rule is being adjudicated differently, will the Niners and Dolphins adjust their scheme? Because everything in the NFL is a copycat league.
17:20
Someone tries something, it gets put on tape, other people try it, then the defenses adjust, and then it's not effective anymore. Think about the Wildcat. Remember how pop- Oh, yes.
17:29
Like, again, this is the NFL just like life. There were certain fads and certain eras, right? Mm. When I was a kid in the '90s, I used to play Pokemon. [laughs] Now, Game Boy doesn't exist anymore.
17:43
And if it does, you're basically- Well, you still play, you can still, still play Pokemon on the phone... you can play Pokemon Go. Yeah, come on. Pokemon Go. I was gonna refer- Different Pokemon.
17:49
[laughs] But you get my point. Yeah, it's like- I had a Tamagotchi too. Yeah. Remember, remember how big the read options were? Exactly. Uh, obviously as a Packer fan I'm still have nightmares about Colin Kaepernick.
17:59
I think he's still running. Uh, in that NFC divisional game where he had like over 200 yards rushing. That was a big pain for, like, defenses didn't know how to stop it. Now they kinda really understand it.
18:09
You don't really see it as much. It's almost more like a gadget play. Yeah. I, I think the cheat motion now, I am fascinated to see how the Niners and Dolphins handle this.
18:19
Let's be honest, this a, it's a very effective play. It's a very effective strategy. To put the fastest player on the planet at full speed before the snap, I mean, y- you can't...
18:32
And I know he's moving laterally, but once he turns at the snap, he's already running full speed. I- it is an incredible advantage for the offensive player. That's why it's called che- that...
18:44
Like, the Niners told on themselves. Kyle Shanahan told on himself. He called it cheating. He literally called it cheating. Of course they were gonna try to iron out this wrinkle. The question is how it's officiated.
18:58
Raise your hand if you've watched a game in the NFL since you've been born that you've been like, "That's not fair. The officials got it wrong." Everyone should have their hand raised.
19:06
It's, it, it's inevitable that they're gonna get this wrong trying to get it out of the game, and it's gonna still be... It's still gonna happen. It's just how they hide it and how they mask it is gonna be the key.
19:20
I bet Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan are in a bunker somewhere right now trying to figure out how to counter this rule.
19:26
Because I think the biggest advantage you could have for any offensive skill player is to have them running faster than the defensive player before the snap. To me, that is cheating.
19:36
And also, you know, the defensive player can't... The, the rules have limited them from pressing, making contact beyond five yards, so it's really difficult.
19:45
And like, if you're trying to, you know, jam up Deebo Samuel or Tyreek Hill and you miss, like, oh, goodbye. It's a, that's a touchdown. So it's so tough for, for the defender.
19:54
So I guess in one aspect I'm kinda happy that NFL's making rules, Jared, that is helping out the defender. It feels like- This is a defensive rule... Yeah.
20:02
It feels like every rule is going against the, the defender and making it tough for them to play, so I'm glad that they finally switched it on that end. But again, how upset are you going to be?
20:12
Let's say you have a Tyreek Hill first touchdown prop. First play of the game, cheat motion. Does a little dance, goes up the sidelines, wide open, touchdown. Defender's flat-footed, no chance to guard him.
20:27
Y- you just called- Penalty, illegal cheat motion on Tyreek Hill. People are gonna go nuts. It's gonna be the... It's going to be wi- it will take points off the board.
20:38
This is going to be one of those illegal procedure-type penalties that's gonna drive every fantasy football gambler nuts all year.
20:48
But- Well, you know, if, if you have any Philadelphia Eagle player and they get stuffed at the one, you, you, you know how to cope with it. I, I'm, I'm glad... I, I'm with you.
20:57
I, I do think that we need more rules for the defenses. This one, I don't know how impactful it is going to be.
21:04
I do not know how well they are going to, uh, grade it and, and, you know, adjudicate it and, and, and get it cleaned up. But this will be a story this year. Um, if, if they, if, if they, uh,
21:19
look hard at this and really try to get it out of the game, there's gonna be a lot of offensive players that are gonna be very upset. Very upset. And Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan I'm sure did not enjoy.
21:30
Of all the positive things happening for offenses, when they probably read this this morning, um, they didn't like it. I mean, literally, Kyle Shanahan last year, some... This is a quote from the article.
21:40
"Some call it speed motion. I call it cheat motion because it's cheating." [laughs] Like, he told on himself. Yeah.
21:47
But I like what you said, Jared, is that, you know, the good coaches, they'll complain about, uh, what are we gonna do? You took away an, an, an advantage for us.
21:55
But I think great coaches like Kyle Shanahan, Mike McDaniel, great offensive minds, they're gonna find a way to dis- disrupt the rules a little bit here or find another, you know, uh,
22:04
little open spot where, where they can, uh, have the advantage. If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Eh, as a Nas- I, I don't know who said that... as a NASCAR fan, man, you see it a lot. I don't know who said that.
22:14
I have no idea who said that. Isn't that Ricky Bobby? Whatever. No, that's- No, that's-... if you ain't first, you're last. That's right. Um, if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying. Well, cheat motion's no longer.
22:24
Um, we're cheating next 'cause we got Zachary Cohen, senior editor of VSiN, on. We're gonna talk, uh, a lot of college football. The guide is out today. Go check it out.
22:32
Zach Cohen's up next to talk about it here on VSiN.
22:34
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
Jared is in for Gill, Wyatt is in for Kelly. Um, in for himself is Zachary Cohen, senior editor of VSiN. Um, we're gonna go out to the progressive guest line right now and check in with Zachary.
23:04
Of course, you can follow him on X @bettingonX. Very intuitive, uh, social media handle there. We appreciate Zach's time this morning. Zach, College Football Guide out today. Very exciting stuff.
23:14
Um, you inspired me for one of my selections in the guide, because I was reading through some of the picks before I made my picks, and at the top of the card it said Alabama's gonna win the college football playoff.
23:24
And I was like, whoa, 'cause you can still get them at plus money just to make the college football playoff. But you're taking it a step further, year one of Kalen DeBoer. Explain yourself, sir.
23:34
Yeah, I mean, I just really believe in DeBoer. I think he's a top five coach in the country. I think obviously there's big shoes to fill with Nick Saban leaving.
23:41
You're losing the greatest coach in college football history, but you're bringing in a guy that just got to the playoff, made it to the final last year with a team that I believe had less talent than this Alabama team does.
23:50
I think that Alabama has a really, really good offensive line this season. Bring back Jalen Milroe, one of, you know, the probably the best dual threat quarterback in all of college football.
23:58
I think the people are really worried about the wide receiver group, but that's not a group that I tend to worry about with teams like this where, you know, you're loaded with five-star talent.
24:06
You have some returners back from last year. Maybe not the best ones, but you do have guys that contributed to last year's team.
24:11
Uh, some younger players are going to be able to step up and, you know, fill in some of those gaps. Uh, defensively, like, there's six starters returning from the, that side of the ball. Really talented players.
24:20
Uh, like we said, like I just said, you know, five-star talent filling in the gaps there. And I really like Kane Womack, the former South Alabama head coach, who's coming in as the defensive coordinator.
24:29
I think he's going to make an imprint right away on this team. And I just kinda think that you get Georgia at home, that makes the schedule a lot better.
24:36
I think the winner of that Georgia game in Tuscaloosa will end up winning the SEC.
24:39
Yeah, and again, from a, from a plus money perspective to make the playoff, the reason why it made a ton of sense to me, Zachary, and you tell me if you agree with me or not- Their toughest game is in September.
24:50
Now, I, I know at Oklahoma, at LSU, those are tough games, obviously. At Tennessee, those are tough games. But their toughest game, the only game that they're probably gonna be a dog in, i- if at all...
24:59
I mean, I guess maybe they could be a dog at Tennessee, depending on how the first six weeks of the season go. But I think LSU's gonna take a step back this year. Obviously, they lost a ton.
25:06
And, and Oklahoma, I- I'm not very high on them, even though that game is on the road. Their, their, their toughest game is in September.
25:11
Say they lose that game, you have seven games after that to, you know, convince the committee that you're worthy of a playoff spot. And I always think losing early is beneficial to making the playoff, right?
25:23
Get that loss out of the way in September, and then the recency bias for the committee will carry you through, 'cause you're winning all your games down the stretch. It makes a ton of sense to me.
25:31
When I saw plus, a plus sign next to their playoff number, I was like, "I have got to bet this," because you've got so much speed there, or excuse me, so much runway at the end of the season to make up for an early loss against Georgia.
25:43
No, 100%. I mean, you're looking at games, it's versus Georgia, it's at LSU, it's at Tennessee. Like, those are the games that they can lose. I think they're gonna go two and one in those games.
25:53
I, I think they're gonna win that Georgia game, but you're right, if they do lose that one, they have time to make up for it. They just have to win a couple of tough road games.
25:59
And I do think that they would have an edge against both Tennessee and LSU, because Tennessee, I think has, you know, a really depleted secondary.
26:06
LSU still has a lot to prove on that, you know, the defensive side of the ball. I do think that they're going to get better there. But like you said, there's a lot going out with Jayden Daniels leaving.
26:13
That offense is gonna be worse.
26:15
So I just think that Alabama's a better football team than both of them, and I think that DeBoer is a proven coach at this point that's going to be able to go out and get some big, uh, road wins. Yeah, that's the key.
26:23
Like, don't get me wrong, Nick Saban is, is Nick Saban. I'm not... This isn't... I, I always love when we compliment someone else, it, it always gets assumed that we're, that we're, you know, [laughs]
26:34
making fun of or, or putting down the other person in this equation.
26:37
But I, I love Nick Saban, but Kalen DeBoer, over the last decade, has proven that he is one of the best coaches, one of the brightest minds in this sport. And now he gets the resources and the talent to go along with it.
26:51
Not to say that there wasn't talent at Washington, but you cannot compare the talent at Washington to Alabama. Like, it's almost like you, y- a kid in a candy store. Like, he has gotta be licking his chops.
27:01
And we don't know, 'cause we haven't seen it, and that's why I think you're getting a fair number on Bama this year.
27:05
It's just the unknown of Kalen DeBoer and that, you know, upheaval that I think is giving you a fair price on the Tide this year. Yeah, definitely.
27:15
I think that people need to see it to believe it, but I do think that he's shown that he's going to be able to find a lot of success with this talented of a roster.
27:22
And I also, you know, that, you know, the unknown of DeBoer, I think, is gonna help them against Georgia. Yes. It's gonna be a completely different look for Kirby Smart to plan against just a more wide open offense.
27:31
So I think that Milroe's gonna have a huge year. Yeah, that, that, that's such a great point. You know, other teams, right, like we've been viewing Alabama in a certain way.
27:40
But other teams have also had, you know, the same coaching staff for the most part, um, especially at the top, to prepare for.
27:47
And I know that the offensive coordinators have kind of been shuffled in and out, but, but Kalen DeBoer, I think, is brighter than all of them. And I, I agree with you.
27:54
I think Jalen Milroe, and pretty much the entire offensive line, um, at, at least is back, minus Latham. So, um, great up front. The receivers, eh. I, I, that leaves a little something to be desired there.
28:05
Running back room's okay, but the receiving group needs to take a step forward. Um, all right, uh, Utah in the Big 12 this year. I know, that sounds crazy, but they are in the Big 12 this year.
28:13
There's a lot of changes across college football this year. That's why you gotta read the guide. But you think the Utes are very live, uh, to win the conference in their debut season.
28:22
Yeah, it almost feels like a sucker pick at this point, 'cause everybody has it. But I liked getting plus money odds on Utah to win the Big 12.
28:27
I just think that last year's Pac-12 season for them was a nightmare because of injuries.
28:31
I, I think that Cam Rising and Brent Keyфе both being out, you know, for, since the start of the year just doomed them from the jump.
28:37
Like, I liked that team a lot to, you know, make the college football playoff a year ago. I think I was a year early. Now you're getting Rising back at, you know, what, he should be 100% healthy.
28:45
Had a full year to recover, more than a year to recover. Uh, he's one of the QBs that I really [laughs] really like. I just think he's a gamer, a guy that can pick up first downs with his legs.
28:53
You know, seems to make the right throw every time he's out there.
28:56
Uh, the offense I'm expecting to be a lot better this season, and kinda, you know, almost match the production of the defense, which was really good a year ago.
29:04
I think that Whittingham is probably going to be the best coach in the Big 12 immediately. Uh, I just think, like, this is a group that should be energized from playing against worse competition.
29:12
Uh, that game, uh, in September, like it's another September game we're talking about, that road game against Oklahoma State, that's one that could really go either way.
29:19
But I would be pretty surprised if Utah loses to anybody else. Yeah, that, that schedule, I mean, we don't really know how the acclimation process to a new conference will go.
29:30
I, every time I talk to, you know, the people that I know inside the college football world, they all say the travel in these scenarios is gonna be a little bit more cumbersome than we expect. It's not easy to move.
29:43
I, when I used to work at FAU, it's a very small operation. Like, it, it takes a long time to get to these places.
29:47
You gotta drive a truck across the country if you're playing a game, uh, somewhere else, 'cause it's the equipment.
29:52
So the travel will be an adjustment, but I don't think that'll impact the players as much as it will the staff and the coaches.
29:58
I think the coaches, and the scouting, and getting to a new league, I think that's gonna be the biggest adjustment for Utah. But like you said, Kyle Whittingham is about as elite as it comes.
30:06
All right, and back, let's go back to the SEC. Um, I haven't done much re- much research on Texas A&M this year.
30:12
Um, you not only like them to go over their standard win total, but the alternate win total also catching your eye. So please, uh, fill me in on the Aggies here. I just really love Mike Elko.
30:21
He was a really successful defensive coordinator at Texas A&M.
30:24
Went to Duke, which is a team that had very little talent, turned them into a winning program, now gets to come back and coach, you know, Jimbo Fisher's team.
30:31
Fisher did a really good job of bringing in high-level talent to College Station. Uh, he was not a great game day coach. Elko definitely is.
30:39
I think that the defense, which is loaded with talent at every level, is going to be one of the best in the SEC right away. And I like what he did with the offense.
30:46
I thought hiring, uh, Colin Klein from Kansas State's going to help him out a lot. I think that Klein did really well with less talented offenses in Manhattan. Always got a lot out of less talent.
30:55
Uh, they were a really good red zone team a year ago, and he's g- getting a quarterback in Connor Wegman that I think's gonna be, you know, a top five pick someday in the NFL draft. I think he's a really talented kid.
31:04
Uh, last year, his season ended with a broken foot. Uh, it sounds like he's going to be healthy here. Uh, they have a good backfield, a good offensive line. The, the...
31:12
It's another team with, you know, questions at receiver, but I just think it's a really strong team that has great coaching and, and a really manageable schedule because they play some really tough teams, but they're going to do it at home.
31:23
Uh, even starting with that game against Notre Dame in August. Like, all of their toughest games this season will be played at College Station.
31:29
So, you know, there are four games on that schedule, uh, that I think are going to be really tough for them, but it wouldn't shock me if they win two or three with them playing at home.
31:36
Yeah, that game in week one is a pick 'em, um, currently at DraftKings between A&M and Notre Dame. A- and frankly, I, I... Zach, I think that's kind of the, you know, that, that's kind of the alt win total right there.
31:48
If you guy- if, uh, the Aggies can get that game, um, yeah, I think 10 wins is very much attainable for them. Um, that'll be a really fun one. Um, I think it's a, a true...
31:58
Is that a true road g- I don't know if that's a neutral site or not. Um- It- Go ahead... It's in Tex- it's at Texas A&M. It's at Texas A&M. Uh, yeah, I mean, that's- Okay...
32:06
that, that's a huge advantage then for the Aggies. How about Notre Dame? You don't see Notre Dame going a true road game in the SEC week one very often.
32:13
Um, that is gonna be a really fun one, uh, down there in College Station. Uh, Zachary, anything else that we should be aware of as the College Football Betting Guide out today, and you and the team did a great job, sir.
32:25
I mean, just in the SEC, I'll throw one out there that I think is going kind of against public opinion, as I like the under on Missouri. Uh, they were a team- Oh, wow...
32:32
that, uh, you know, really exceeded expectations last year.
32:34
I think a lot of people like the schedule this year, but, you know, they lost one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation in Blake Baker, who went to LSU for some big money to try and fix that defense.
32:43
They also lost more than half of their starters on the defensive side of the ball. So that's a team that I think can disappoint a little bit this season. The offense should be good.
32:51
I mean, they'll probably win eight games at least, but I don't see them getting to 10. You know, I don't think s- I don't think they're gonna get to nine either.
32:57
Uh, just with the guide, I will say, like, you know, I read all of, all of the competition. You know, I, I read Phil Steele and everyone. I think everybody does a great job.
33:05
We have a really good mix of giving you the, uh, the X's and O's of football, but at the same time, you're getting, like, 50-plus best bets, all of Steve Makinen's systems, all of the trends.
33:14
Like, this is a really, really [laughs] good product for better, you're, betters. You're getting a lot, um, very early in the year. I think it's going to help a lot of you with your handicap.
33:22
Yeah, it, it's, it's on the list. Again, it's a long list of things I have to read before the season starts, but it is absolutely on the list, and Zachary Cohen, a big reason for it. Great stuff as always, my friend.
33:33
Senior editor at VSiN. Appreciate the time. Thanks, guys. All right, we'll talk a little more college football on the other side. Maybe Live's gonna get involved, talk a little Big Ten. What do you think?
33:41
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, go to vsin.com right now. Why?
33:55
Well, I'm on an article written by Matt Humans, which is scouting every single quarterback depth chart. I actually did this exercise myself earlier this week, and I started to rank these depth charts.
34:05
Why is this important? I don't know. Maybe it's 'cause the preseason starts tonight, and it's not gonna be the starters out there.
34:11
Well, you can find all of this information available to you at vsin.com, including best bets, betting splits, articles, odds by state, tools, and the betting guides. All of it.
34:21
Go to vsin.com right now, especially the betting guide, the College Football Betting Guide. Of course, we just had Zachary Cohen on to wax poetic on all the good things they are doing for the site. It is a...
34:30
August does feel like the start. I, I said this yesterday. Yesterday was the end of my fiscal year. The end of July is the s- is, is the end, and August is the start. To me, that's just when I view, uh, an, a renewal.
34:43
Uh, August 1st is a very impactful day. Um, I... It's ironic that we get our first NFL preseason game on August 1st. It's literally signifying the new month, um, with a new season, but I do consider August the fall.
34:57
I know it won't, doesn't feel like the fall, but it is the fall season. Well, hopefully the last two years here in Vegas, August have been nice and cool, and after the July- It's not nice and cool...
35:04
it, the, after the July we had- We got 104 on my- We hope it's a little bit more-... apartment the other day... little bit more rain in the area. You know, that's what I'm kinda hoping for.
35:10
But yes, I, I enjoy- Yeah, I don't think so... when, when August hits, it's like you can see fall approaching, and you know you've got football on every day, post-season baseball, which is, which is great. Yeah.
35:21
NBA and, and NHL. Got a while till post-season baseball. I know, but you, you see, you f- you could see it right there.
35:26
I wanna get through, I wanna get through August 1st before I start thinking about the post-season, but that was a good transition. There you go. This is why he's the best producer in the business.
35:32
[laughs] 'Cause we are gonna transition to a little baseball here at the end of this hour. Coming up, um, in our next hour, we will dive more into college football.
35:39
I will give you, um, two picks that I have, both of them on the guide. I'm a, I'm, I'm a dem- I'm a democr- a Democratic, uh, bettor. I, I'll give you everything for free, even though you gotta pay for the guide.
35:50
I'll give you my two picks for free 'cause I'm doing the show today, and I'm feeling very generous. Um, but w- we'll also talk a little bit of Big Ten. We'll talk a little bit of NFL, too.
35:59
But let's get into some baseball. We haven't talked any baseball yet this morning. Um, it- baseball's still happening. Don't worry, people, it is still happening.
36:05
Uh, we're really short card today, so I don't wanna get into t- today's games. I am on a Nerfy in Chicago, um, between the Cardinals and the Cubs.
36:11
You can probably find minus 135 out there, but there's really not a whole lot of analysis to give you there other than Sonny Gray and Shohei Imanaga. But the defen- or the division odds are intriguing.
36:21
They are kind of showing you a, a, a signal, especially with one specific division, and that's the National League West To me, that's the division that has at least a live dog in it.
36:34
I think if you go through the other divisions, they're priced pretty right.
36:37
But I don't know if we can fully capture just how good San Diego is, because they haven't shown you their best stuff yet, but it's starting to show, and they really look good this week against the Dodgers.
36:49
You can currently get the Padres to win the National League West at a price of, what, 10 to 1? Is that what I saw last night? Is that still available? I had 850 at DraftKings. I'm gonna look for an updated number here.
37:02
Plus 850 for the Padres to win the National League West. They are currently four games out. That's not a lot of games with 60 to play. I'm not saying they're gonna win it,
37:19
but when I was looking at the markets for the most wins in August, which was the last couple of days, by the way, I made two bets in that market, the Padres really stood out to me. Here is the Padres' schedule in August.
37:33
You ready for this? They're off today. Three at home against Colorado. Three at Pittsburgh, which is a tough series, especially if you have to face Skeens. But let's be honest, Pittsburgh's a 500 team. Three at Miami.
37:50
Three more against Pittsburgh.
37:53
So those six games against Pittsburgh, you're probably gonna have to face Skeens at least once, and that's tough, but I wouldn't put that in the upper echelon of teams in the National League.
38:03
Then you play Colorado again on the road. Coors Field's tough, but it's Colorado. Minnesota, Mets at home, at St. Louis, at Tampa. No first place teams on that list.
38:18
One second place team in the Twins. The Mets, I would say, are an average team, maybe slightly above average. Well, they've been playing, as of lately, I would s- They've been playing better lately.
38:29
I would say, i- would you say that's probably the best, the toughest series?
38:31
I would say the teams that they're playing, I think the three games on the road at Pittsburgh, if you face Skeens, will, th- that'll get you the b- the game they're the biggest dog in. Mm. Is the game they play Skeens.
38:42
I would be willing to bet that every other game this month, they will be favored or close to a pick'em within 10 or 15 cents. Maybe when they go to St.
38:52
Louis, if they face Sonny Gray, if they don't have one of their aces on the mound, they will be a dog in that game. But, like, who on the Mets, rotation-wise, are they gonna be a dog against? At home.
39:03
The Mets series at home. Mm. Severino, I think they're, unless they face the number five starter that day and it's ace against Padres' number five starter, maybe the Mets will be a slight favorite on the road.
39:14
But I, I think the Padres will be favored in most of those games at home. The games against Skeens are gonna be tough. The other games against the Pirates are not gonna be that tough.
39:21
Maybe they play Skeens, they have to face Skeens twice. If they face Skeens twice nex- in August, then that's tough. Maybe they miss him one of the series and they only have to face him once. Maybe they miss him both.
39:30
Probably not because of how close the series are together. But I am in the belief that the Dodgers road is tougher. You ready for the Dodgers road? Much tougher. Let's go for it. Right out of the gate at Oakland.
39:47
All right, not that bad. [laughs] Philly at home. Could be an NLCS preview. Then Pittsburgh at home, likely will have to face Skeens, maybe not. At Milwaukee, at St. Louis. That's a tough road trip.
39:58
Those are the two best teams in the National League Central, and I know San Diego has to play St. Louis too, but not on the heels of a series in Milwaukee, which is the end of a road trip.
40:09
Then they come home, they face Seattle, who's a contending team with really good pitching. Tampa, who's not a contending team. Baltimore at home, arguably the best team in the American League.
40:21
And then at Arizona the last two days, which is the next best team behind Arizona, or behind San Diego and LA in their division, who's the hottest team in baseball, who just had the most wins in July.
40:31
So a l- it sounds like- The Dodgers' schedule is definitely tougher. Yeah. No doubt about that.
40:35
Well, I was gonna say, what, the Dodgers are really playing only one team that's kinda what you would say is kinda out of the playoff race.
40:42
Uh, the Rays, who kinda just punted on the year and it's like, "All right, we're gonna build on for-" Oakland. Oh yeah, Oakland. Forgot about that. Yeah. But Oakland's feisty. Yeah. And that's an in-state rivalry.
40:50
Listen, I'm not saying Oakland's gonna win those games, but you saw how the Dodgers played this week in San Diego. They don't exactly look like gangbusters right now. Is it...
40:55
Well, where does it e- Their pitching looks a disaster. Yeah. Where does it e- Although Kopech looked good in the bullpen. It's at Oakland.
40:59
Yeah, it's the final time the Dodgers will be in Oakland for, for a game, and I think it- It's true. Yeah. It's a momentous occasion. It is. Long story short, the Padres have a very easy schedule in, in August.
41:12
And I would not be surprised if those two teams, Dodgers and Padres, head into September a game or two apart, and you can get almost 10 to 1 on San Diego to win the division.
41:25
Yeah, when I was doing this yesterday, I kinda had to adjust my eyes a little bit. Like, I didn't realize how close the Padres have gotten to the Dodgers. Very close.
41:31
And, you know, the Padres in the last 10 games, they're nine and one. I think y- you talked about potential NLCS, uh, match-ups between the Dodgers and the Phillies.
41:40
I look at those two teams right now, and they are not playing their best baseball. Obviously, the, the Dodgers have a crap ton of injuries. The Phillies, though, I don't...
41:47
This felt like they had a real opportunity to go up double digits on the Braves and the Mets, and they're only six and a half up on the Braves. I think the Phillies will bounce back.
41:57
I think the Phillies are doing what the Yankees did last month. They ha- I mean, that's, I mean, what a, what a series for the Yankees, but man, the Phillies just... The Yankees were fortunate to win those games.
42:05
They probably should've lost two out of the three, but they won two out of the three. One of them went to extras. I don't even count. The games that are in extra innings in baseball today,
42:14
do not take anything from the results of extra inning games. Because when you get to the playoffs, those rules are not the same. It's like playing a different sport if you get that ghost runner at second.
42:23
There have been so many games this year that I have seen unders just completely get, uh, derailed in extra innings. It is
42:32
The main reason why I will ref- I refuse, refuse to bet a full game under during the regular season. I, it, r- and I know not every game goes to extras, but I refuse to lose a game, to lose a bet that way.
42:47
I would rather lose a bet in a fluky, nerfy way- Mm-hmm...
42:50
than to wait three hours, and I know the games are shorter, but you get the point, and then to be right on my nine-inning bet, and then lose because they put this ghost runner at second, and the inning just goes haywire.
43:02
I, so be careful with the extra inning results. But hey, the Yankees won the game, it doesn't matter. It's a win, it's a win. They're gonna take whatever they can get right now after a miserable July. I am very hesitant
43:16
to unload the clip on the Yankees after this month. However, I will say their schedule in August is very simple. That is why they are one of the two bets that I made. So
43:25
I made two bets, and this is a very popular bet on this show. Gil's won it already this year. I made two bets in the most August wins market.
43:34
I made a bet on the Padres at, at almost eight to one, and then I bet the Yankees at, uh, almost five to one. And the Yankees bet is twofold for me. The Yankees bet is, their schedule is super simple.
43:44
Toronto, Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, Guardians, that's a tough series, Rockies at home, Washington, easy series, and then St. Louis. Like, they, they're gonna be favored in every single game pretty much.
43:56
They get, what, three teams that were playoff contenders. They're gonna be favored in every g- Yeah... 'cause the Cleveland series at home. They're gonna be favored almost every game they play.
44:04
But I also have a big bet on the Orioles to win the division. So I'm thinking to myself, if the Yankees have the most wins in August, I could still win both.
44:11
But I don't wanna be left out in the cold on my really good number on Baltimore to win the division.
44:16
So I'm gonna come back a little bit and make another bet on the Yankees, which I think is plus EV, 'cause the Yankees have a really simple schedule.
44:22
Top of the hour, we'll switch the focus back to football here on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
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