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Aug 20, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 20, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 20, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:52
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
[upbeat music] [laughs] And it's a Wednesday edition of a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the eSports betting network. Matt Brown in on the desk for Gil Alexander. Kelly Biblin here right along beside me.
0:22
We're gonna have a good show, the both of us are. The whole crew behind the d- everyone. Everyone behind the glass, everybody. We're all gonna do our best, Matt. Yeah. That's all we can ever ask.
0:28
A great show in which we have... Would you say we have a plethora of guests? I would say that. Well, I c- I would say that... I guess y- y'all, y'all do a lot of guests.
0:35
It r- it seems like we have a plethora of guests here- Mm-hmm. We do... on the show today, as Tony Farmer's gonna join us, Adam Burke is gonna join us.
0:41
Adam, uh, Andy Molitor's gonna walk right through those double doors right there. That's right. And he's gonna sit on this very desk with us. See what he has to say about the Tour Championship.
0:50
Looking forward to talking that today on the show. We'll pick his brain about a little bit of the NFL.
0:53
And Andy doing- Gonna say, see if there's anything that stood out to him as they have previewed, you know, all of the teams. Uh, they're doing gr- I mean, I know we have Dr- Drew Dincic on every week.
1:02
You guys hear from him. But Andy is the other half of, uh, the Deep Dive podcast, and they are doing fantastic previews on every single team.
1:08
If you want over an hour on e- a deep dive on every single team, that's the podcast to go to. Andy doing the, uh... W- what has he been in Vegas for, like, a week and a half?
1:19
A w- He will be, he will have been here for, like, a week and a, week and a half, I think. The, the intriguing long, Vegas long stay, which man, that would make me very nervous.
1:26
Well, I- Matt, you know me, I do not have the self-control to, uh... Like, if I didn't live here, to come out here for two weeks.
1:31
It's one of those things where, uh, as he pointed out, uh, to us over the weekend, which was, you know, once everyone gets out of town, you can live like a normal life. Right, yeah.
1:39
Well, I mean, it's the same deal that people say to us, the people that don't live here. "Well, how do you live in Vegas?" I'm like, "Well, I mean, I live in the suburbs." Yeah, no, it just bec- Like, you wouldn't-...
1:47
it becomes regular life... you wouldn't know where I live comparatively to where you live. Right, yeah. It's just a bunch of grocery stores and strip malls and everything else.
1:55
Like, it's not like I'm walking down and people are flicking the cards at me- [laughs]... as I, like, go into Albertsons and stuff or whatever. Like- It's also-...
2:01
they're not trying to get me a mail-order bride or anything. It's also the part though that makes things like last week tough sometimes, right? Because everybody comes to town and they're like, "Hey, we're, let's party."
2:09
And it's like, "Hey, we've got regular lives to lead still out here." Could you imagine if you just went to your local Albertsons and they were standing outside trying to sell you the hookers?
2:16
Like, that would be amazing. I mean, I wouldn't, I would, I, I mean, I still wouldn't be all that shocked.
2:19
[laughs] Still one of the most, still the, like, the most mind-blowing thing to me about living in Las Vegas is that there are, there are video poker and slot machines everywhere, including your Albertsons, including your gas stations, all of those.
2:31
You know, that's weird, but I, I get it because it wasn't where you were gr- that isn't weird to me. They actually, they had that in Louisiana. Really?
2:37
Yeah, there would be, like, video poker machines in gas sta- [audio cuts out] stuff and things like that. Yeah, that... Okay, I didn't- Yeah... I did not know that happened- Yeah... in other states. Yeah, so.
2:43
That was mind-blowing to me my first time back. So yeah, so it didn't, it wasn't all that weird to me for, for a little- Especially since there's always someone playing there too.
2:49
It'd be one thing if I just said that and they were always dead and, and, and just nobody ever using them. Though there's always somebody at the gas station playing video poker.
2:56
The Cubs swept that Tuesday double header from the Brewers, so this actually keeps this NL Central race alive because it gets it down to seven games.
3:04
I mean, Kelly, we were talking, w- this could've been a massive flip in all of this. Mm-hmm.
3:08
And even though we do have a decent amount of games left, if this thing had gotten up to nine, 10, y- you probably think there's zero chance.
3:14
There's still a very, very slim chance that the Cubs are able to go and compete in this division, but certainly getting that s- uh, g- getting that double header win makes it to where we can, uh, still have content about this division.
3:25
We can still make it interesting. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, get, get in the mix. Hopefully this, uh, stays competitive.
3:30
Was just pulling up what the, uh, m- best record odds are as well because Brewers, yeah, this is coming down, minus 185 for the Brewers right now. Phillies plus 650 in that market.
3:41
The Astros have lost three in a row, but the Mariners have lost four in a row, and the Rangers have gone two and eight in their last 10.
3:49
So despite the fact that the Astros have lost three in a row, nobody made a move at all on this Houston team because, uh, the Mariners can't win and the Rangers can't win either.
4:01
That was a bit of a bummer of a loss yesterday for us here on... I mean, the Ha- this is one of those things where when the handicap works out- Yeah... and the results just don't match up, it's fine.
4:10
It was zero-zero into the 10th inning. We said, I was like, "I think Hunter Brown can go toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal." Sure did. He did. Yep. It just, they couldn't hit him at all, and it's, you know, whatever.
4:20
You lose one-nothing, I don't, I'm not beating myself up about it. Well, I mean, you talk about... I, I ended up watching, you know, the last- Mm... few innings of that game after we got done recording long shots.
4:27
Uh, I knew you had the bet on it, and it was, yeah, it was tight. And, you know, we've talked about the, the Tigers' bullpen issues before, and yeah, they, you know, tip of the cap to them.
4:35
They showed up and was able to shut down the Astros in that game. But, um, yeah, man, I mean, that, it is, that, that's exactly what it is, right? You're a handicap.
4:42
You know you're going up a, up against Skubal, and you gotta, you gotta y- you've gotta get past him somehow, and it just, it, you, you got out of the starting pitcher exactly what you wanted. Yeah.
4:52
We got a, we got a big money l- we got a, a big plus money price on that, so again, like I said, not, not really beating myself up there over that one.
4:57
Red Sox lost three in a row, seven of their last 10, while the Yankees have won four in a row and seven of their last 10. And so now- Let's go, Yanks... the Sox.
5:06
Man, S, this is, uh, this is the Yankees now leading the Red Sox by a game and just five back of the Blue Jays, so we, it's the, is it... We're not quite full-on undertaker.gif here on the Yankees.
5:19
Like, you know, it's- Let's go... uh, that- Once they win the division though, we will be. Man, people love using that one. Yeah, they really. It's, it's a great one. It's a, it's a- It's a great one. Yeah...
5:26
it's a, it's a fantastic one. Yeah, you don't even have to be a wrestling fan like me. Oh. And I, I still use it all the time. No, it's, 'cause it's just so great- Yeah...
5:32
because it is a dude in a coffin with the- [laughs]... with the coffin flipping open and then sitting up immediately very, like, very quickly. Back alive. Yeah. I, have you heard my Yankees bet?
5:41
I th- I think I have the worst Yankees bet you've ever heard. Yeah, you had, like, you have multiple.
5:44
Don't you have m- m- Uh, I do have a couple, but the m- only main team future is, uh, minus 220 on them to win the division I made on July 3rd. Yeah.
5:52
Basically the worst possible price, worst possible time to make that bet, yeah.
5:55
Little League World Series ask these kids, like, you know, they ask 'em all these different questions so when they come up to bat, like, they'll have the, like- Yeah, yeah, yeah... you know- Heard it...
6:01
"What's your favorite food? What's your whatever." They're, uh, we've gotten to the point, they ask 'em what their favorite meme is. So, like, you actually- Are you serious? Yeah, yeah.
6:07
So, like, some of them, some of them will pop up, and it's like, "What's your favorite meme?" That's really weird The, uh- I already know the answer for Dave Ross What's your favorite meme?
6:15
Whoever's spitting out coffee is, uh- Yeah... Dave Ross' favorite one. Uh- I don't know. Undertaker's definitely up there... that one's, that one's up there.
6:21
The kid that I happen to s- the one that I saw, the kid happened to have put the, uh, the Homer Simpson fading back into the bushes. Yeah, yeah.
6:27
You know when that one, when it's like you say s- when, when you say something that you wanna take back and you'll show your s- Yeah, yeah, yeah... they, you play that one or whatever. That's the one.
6:33
I like the little ki- I, see, I like to use ones that are unique. Mm. I like to really actually take time searching for a, for a good GIF- Mm... JIF, you know, whatever.
6:39
I like the one- Sometimes you miss the moment though when you take too long or whatever. That's, that's true, true. Like, you know?
6:42
I like the one where there's a little kid with blonde hair and he's, like, typing out some '90s computer, and then he gives a thumbs up. That one is fantastic. I like that one.
6:48
That- Especially since he looks like he'd be a member of my family- Man, this-... and yours... this sounds like a s- this sounds like a, a side podcast with you and I where we just, like, rank the top 50 memes out there.
6:57
People would, people would actually appreciate that because then they would, could, like, get those into their rotation. Yeah, probably. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
7:02
We might have to do a little s- The radio, the live radio audience right now- Yeah... might not be appreciating it, but. A little, no, I'm saying a little side project for us. Yeah, yeah. You know, coming up.
7:07
A little side project. I like it. Uh, Vlad Guerrero, we talked about that yesterday. Uh, did go get that MRI. It came back clean, though he did sit out last night's game. It was a win over the Pirates.
7:16
It's Pirates, they probably didn't really need him, but, uh, something we will continue to monitor, see if he's in the lineup today or if they're just gonna give him a few days off to make sure that everything is 1000% okay.
7:27
'Cause as we said, this lead, while still five games, is but five games and can go away. Yes. So you gotta have Vlad. Yeah, absolutely. You gotta have Vlad. Absolutely.
7:35
Yankees', uh, l- uh, franchise record, nine home runs, uh, 13 to 3 win over the Rays. This is actually the second time this season that they have done that, uh, with the nine home runs deal.
7:46
And so like we just mentioned, they are continuing to, uh, to rock and roll here. Shohei Ohtani hits his 44th home run of the season, 11 to 4 win over the Rockies.
7:55
And then the Reds won, and if you guys haven't been following this, Reds are now seven and three in their last 10. They have played very well since the All-Star break.
8:04
They're only one game out of the wild card, the Cincinnati Reds- Okay... one game out of the wild card over there in the NL.
8:11
I know this is something that maybe a lot of people don't pay attention to, where those wild card standings actually sit. Because if you look, yes, they're like a billion games back of the- Yeah, 12 and a half...
8:21
of the Brewers. Yeah. Behind the Brewers. And, and, and you're kinda like, "Okay, well, I don't need to pay attention to this team." Well, actually you do.
8:25
They are one game out of the wild card, and once, you know, once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. Who would you, who's, who's the most catchable? Is that a word? Most catchable.
8:35
Pu- Co- uh, Cubs, Padres, Bet- uh, Mets. Pr- in my opinion, the Mets just because of their starting pitching. Okay. But, like, you know, the, the Padres have just, man, the Padres, that's a frustrating team.
8:47
There's no doubt about that. Yeah. But I'm, I'm... Listen, I'm, I'm sitting here, I'm still, s- I'm holding onto hope with the bet there on the Padres, but they're, they're not instilling a ton of confidence in me.
8:56
Jordan Addison suspended mult- uh, s- uh, is suspended and, and multiple injuries, stuff like that, so the Vikings are gonna be looking into that receiver market and see if they can bring in someone to maybe help out.
9:07
I know that there was someone out there, a veteran presence that wanted to let everybody know that he was not retired and maybe would fit right alongside Justin Jefferson, name Odell Beckham.
9:18
Could you, a little LSU reunion. Of course, they were long, a long ways apart, but- Yeah. That's the thing... uh, Odell was, was a mentor to JJ when he was done. Yeah.
9:25
Yeah, he's, uh, what, come out and said he's not, he's not gonna play. He's not gonna play until he plays. Yeah. Till he plays. Uh- I saw a Cleve TA tweet this morning, uh, Adam Thielen, get back, him back in town.
9:35
There you go. May- maybe he's got one more year left in him. [laughs] I don't know, man. I think the Panthers, I think the Panthers are- I know. [laughs] I think they kinda like him. I think they like him.
9:41
I think the Panthers think that they might be able to... If you look at that division- That, that is wor- by the way, that move has worked out far better than I imagined it hap- Yeah... uh, working out at the time.
9:51
If you're them too, you look at that division and you're like, "I mean, I get it, the Bucs are better than us, but I mean, could we not run pure and win this division?"
9:59
I mean, like, I, I- We're talking NFC South tomorrow. Yeah. My thoughts. I think that they're thinking about that. Um, uh, Arch Manning says he doesn't know exactly how this is going to, uh, to pan out.
10:08
So again, this does affect number one overall pick market. This definitely affects Heisman, all the different things like that.
10:14
He says that, you know, look, there was a, a move in the market because Archie came out and said to Texas Monthly that, uh, you know, he wasn't gonna, he wasn't gonna go, even though I hadn't talked to him.
10:24
He goes, "I haven't talked to him, but I know him. He's gonna be back at Texas." Well, Arch is like, "Ah, no, let's not jump the gun here, Pawpaw," you know? Yeah, Arch was like, uh, "Shut up, Grandpa." Yeah.
10:34
Like, uh- "Let's not, let's not jump the gun here, Pawpaw."
10:36
Um, and w- what this actually did for, for us, or well, for me, everyone knows that's been following me here on the network, over the years that I've been here, I like to create a, a portfolio of those number one overall pick things, and you had a very short shot in Arch Manning.
10:50
And then a quote gets put into a magazine by a grandfather who said that he had not talked to the kid yet, and he jumped all the way out to 10 to 1 to be the number one overall pick. So now I have- Oh, you jumped in?
11:00
So now I have a 10 to 1- Okay. All right...
11:02
on Arch to go number one overall, which is, again, if he plays halfway decent, given the pedigree, given all the stuff like that, I mean, he's at, he's going to be right there in all of that.
11:12
And I think the team is gonna be, you know, whatever team it is- Yeah... is gonna have a look at him. Still, still plus 750 at DraftKings. I'm surprised he hasn't come down a little bit more from there.
11:20
We did get some quarterback answers yesterday. We're not going to get a quarterback answer for the Saints. We talked about that, that they were still the team left out there.
11:26
Kellen Moore says they've not yet made a call on the quarterback. It's really, really close numbers, experience reps, and everything. It's gonna go all the way down to the end of training camp. Yep.
11:35
Yeah, we oughta wa- look out for that. Congratulations to Circa by the Books on the new Mint Gaming Hall opening, uh, with those guys doing the show out of there today. Finally, Dave Ross looking good in studio.
11:45
And ship. Let's go country clubbing when we come back. [upbeat music] I parent.
11:58
[upbeat music]The Sports Betting Network [upbeat music] Numbers game here on Vices and Madden for Gil. Kelly Fidlin alongside.
12:14
We just have some more news and stuff to talk about. Didn't even get to, to Major League Baseball games today, and some plays. Of course, those will be going here shortly after we get off air.
12:22
So we'll circle back around. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We'll circle, circle back around to that, but- We'll circle the bases... you know, it's, uh, I'm glad you mentioned the- the studio opening up there.
12:30
We were commenting as we walked in. It look, looked, looked fine on television for our Vice and Pro subscribers, or the people that have us on YouTube TV. It was a very nice looking shot.
12:39
Yeah, it looks great, looks great. I, I hope Dave heard that first segment, but mainly just because of the gif meme conversation. Yeah. 'Cause that is, uh, you can't have a podcast about- He-... gifs without Dave Ross...
12:49
he uses the, it's the, it's the brown-headed lady that, that laughs- I don't know who it is. Am I supposed to know who that is? I think it's that Meghan Markle. Like, one of the morning show? No, I think, I, I think,
13:00
like, I think it's that Meghan Mark- Markle that married the, the king or whatever, the prince or whatever. Look at that. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah. Looks like a, looks like a little mini version of us, doesn't it?
13:09
Yeah, that's a, that's a lot. That is... You are looking live. Right there at, uh- Mint Gaming Hall... Mint Gaming Hall in Kentucky. They're, I guess, putting up some promo material and all that.
13:18
It's not too long before that place is gonna be popping off. It looks great. Studio looks great. Mm. Casino looks great. Brand new.
13:25
Uh, listening to Derek, Mike talk about it this morning, just they, they were talking about how that whole area is just kind of blowing up and getting bigger and being built up around them.
13:32
So I, gonna be exciting things. Dave's gonna be, uh, Dave's gonna be lonely in that studio, though. Nah. Nah. I'll need to send you out there to join him [laughs]. There can be, there can be so many...
13:40
Yeah [laughs], me- [laughs]... me and, me in Kentucky. That, yeah, that would be... I got out of the south, man. Humidity and bugs, I'm, I'm done with it all. Yeah. All right, let's not take too long here.
13:48
Where, where, where we headed? Let's hit the club. [air horn blaring] [upbeat music] Hey. I actually played golf with Ben Wilson yesterday. I can see him there in the background. Yeah, there he is.
14:00
There's, there's Uncle Teddy. I'm sure this is gonna shock everybody out there, is the way that we talk about Ben Wilson. He's getting ready for a Scot- a trip to Scotland.
14:08
[laughs] As he's like, I'm sure they're, they're firing up the, the family jet and, uh- Uh-oh... heading over to Scotland. Ben Wilson, who will be here in person to defend himself tomorrow from these comments. Yes.
14:19
It was, uh- I did book him to talk tennis, though, so the, the country club c- theme continues. We'll just, we'll talk to him about a little bit of everything. Yeah, yeah, yeah. A little bit of everything.
14:25
Including the fact that maybe, uh, maybe I, maybe I beat him yesterday. Yeah, I was gonna say, I know you have one thing- I mean, maybe, maybe-... you want to talk to him about, but yeah... maybe I beat him yesterday.
14:32
I don't know. I can't remember if I did or if I didn't, but I, he- he'll remember. I'm sure he'll remember one way or another. What was your best shot yesterday? What do you mean?
14:40
It wa- certainly wasn't the three that I hit in the water. [laughs] It certainly wasn't, it certainly wasn't the three that I hit in the water. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fair enough. Yeah, that's true. All right.
14:48
Tour championship. Yeah, tour championship here. This is the final tournament of the year, guys. We know, we played down to our final 30. You can finish dead last in this puppy, you're gonna get $550,000.
14:57
But if you are able to win it, which Scott is just gonna do that, $10 million up top for this one. Uh, we have a very extensive history of East Lake, Kelly, so we kind of know the profile of this course- Mm-hmm...
15:08
and the golfer that we're looking for. Yeah, absolutely. Um, you know, we talk, Long Shot's up now. Go check that out. Mm. Uh, myself, Matt, Wes, we'll go f- much further deep dive into this.
15:17
Uh, we'll just kind of hit the highlights here.
15:19
But yeah, I, I mean, look, if you're doing a lot of statistical, uh, modeling, or just looking at stats like we are every week, man, it wasn't really much that changed up from last week. Yeah.
15:27
Obviously BMW's on a rotation, but East Lake, uh, you know what you're getting. Like you said, this is, it is thick, rough that you gotta deal with off the fairway. Uh, some, some thin fairways.
15:37
You got some narrow fairways here, about 30 yards wide. Um, so that's what we, we see that a few times a year on some of the tougher courses. That's a big deal.
15:46
Um, water will come into play, but you gotta keep it in the fairway. Distance off the tee helps, and then this is a heavy, heavy test of approach, uh, every single year. This is a major ball striker course. We see that.
15:57
We've seen guys, uh, you know, like Viktor Hovland, like Collin Morikawa, like Scottie Scheffler, like Rory McIlroy, really do well at this course here in the past, and we know all those guys, one thing they have in common is that ball striking ability.
16:09
So given what we talked about on Monday with Scottie Scheffler taking down the tournament last week, he is going to roll into this puppy about plus 150. Yesterday there were 170s.
16:20
I'm not sure if they're still out there in the market or not. But I imagine by the time the thing ge- gets going, it'll be pretty much universally kind of 150-ish with, with Scottie Scheffler.
16:30
A huge, huge jump all the way to 850- Yep... for Rory McIlroy. Then another bigger jump to Fleetwood at 14, Ludvig at 18. Henley is at 20, and then everybody else is 25 or longer.
16:42
Yes, there are only 30 people in this field, and we get that quickly to 25 to one. And, and we talked a little bit about this on the pod yesterday, but it's worth bringing up here. It is hard for us to nitpick
16:53
these odds with the way that Scottie Scheffler's played. 13 straight tournaments where he's not finished lower than eighth place. In 13 straight, he's won five times over the course of that as well. Mm-hmm.
17:05
And you're now giving him a field of only 29 other dudes.
17:10
At the bottom of the field, these guys are still great and they had good seasons, but they're either in poor form coming in, they're not necessarily a threat on this type of course to win. So really, Kelly, 20?
17:23
It's him versus 20 guys? Him versus 19 guys? I, I, I- That, that- That's why he's plus 150... I'll go 20 to 25. I, I- Yeah... think there's five, probably five guys.
17:32
I don't know how much more we give that we can completely chop out of this. But yeah, look, Scheffler's, Scheffler's in amazing form right now. We all know that. I, look, I think a couple things.
17:40
C- I'm, one obvious statement here, I, but, but I'm gonna keep driving this home 'cause I, I keep, it, it keeps blowing my mind, Matt- Mm... how many people don't, don't know this who do kind of, uh, talk about golf.
17:50
No starting strokes. We are- Yes... we have no starting strokes this week, so I know you're seeing plus 150. A lot of people are thinking, "Oh, Scottie's got this lead." No, there's no lead here.
17:58
Scottie is, is just playing that well right now, so wanted to get that out, and then, um, a, I know you don't have an outright bet on him.
18:05
But I think one of the great things we talked about dur- on Long Shots yesterday I think if you're betting Scottie Scheffler, i- there's no reason to get in pre- uh, before the tournament. Yeah.
18:13
I think you just wait live. I, I, you had a great note on it, but he tees off last. I think you, think you just wait. A- a- at worst, you're gonna get the same number pretty much. Yeah.
18:22
That's the, that's kind of the, the beauty here of the odds constantly updating is, so the algorithm sometimes, and now they might not 'cause there's only 30 players and all the difference like that.
18:33
But like, you know, we'll see. We'll, we'll, we will do the experiment tomorrow. Yeah. Which is- I mean, it might only be five cents. I, I, it's, I don't think it's gonna be much longer. Yeah.
18:41
A, a guy goes out, and even though a guy such as Scottie Scheffler, who we know is amazing, has not hit one single ball yet, because he's gone three under earlier in the day or four under earlier in the day, we start to get a drift on some of these other guys.
18:56
And so, um, I'm gonna, that's how I'm gonna play Scottie. So I don't have Scottie in there. I have de facto outrights just because I made 'em months ago. W- I thought there was some value on a couple of different guys.
19:07
Uh, ends up not being the case. [laughs] I could've got basically the same number, uh, now on them that I got back then.
19:12
But with Scottie, if it, going off at 11 with a lot of these guys going off three hours before him, including some dudes going off two hours before him that we know can go low. Viktor Hovland- Mm-hmm...
19:21
goes off two full hours before, before Scottie goes off. And so, you know, maybe like you said, I mean, i- it's, the price certainly isn't gonna get worse. Yeah. It can only get better.
19:31
It would be shocking if it got worse. I mean, r- right, there'd have- Unless they all went five over. They'd be like, like- Yeah...
19:36
like, like, like, I don't know, the lead would have to be one, one under or something- Yeah... by the time he l- tees off for this number to get any worse.
19:41
So I, that's where, I'm not ex- I'm not sitting here saying it's gonna go to three to one- No, no, no, no, no... 'cause there's only 30 guys in this field. But guess what?
19:48
Betting plus 160 is better than betting plus 150. Yeah. And that's, that, that's at least a potential. One other thing I didn't bring up on long shots yesterday.
19:56
Matt, for how long you and I have been running different st- stat models- Yeah... this was the biggest gap I've ever had between number one- Oh, yeah... and number two. Oh, yeah. In a- any event.
20:05
And it, it kind of doesn't matter that there's 30 guys, right? Doesn't matter because you're still, I'm still getting a player rating sco- a score on each one of these guys for how they model out.
20:14
Um, and it was Tommy Fleetwood mainly number two for me yesterday. But we, it, the biggest gap I've ever had. Fleetwood certainly has been the most consistent, I think, of these dudes here of, of late.
20:24
We just know his, his bugaboo, he just can't get across the finish line. You did add a couple of outrights into your, on, onto your card. I've got one. Yeah. One. Okay.
20:31
I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go back to battle, uh, one more time, uh, against Scottie. I'm gonna play Ludvig. This is, I'm, I'm playing much of what I did pretty much a week ago. Uh, so very similar bets.
20:42
Ludvig in great, uh, great form right now, has gained with the putter in three of his last four, th- five of his last seven. The ball-striking numbers have been awesome ever since the PGA Championship.
20:52
This course should fit him very well. So close to 20 to 1 right behind me here at Circa. I took a stab. I also did the, of course I bet this first, but did the dual forecast.
21:01
I do think this is another important point to bring up, though, if you are betting this event. Like, compare, MGM had this up. Don't know how many shops will have up the dual forecast.
21:10
But compare those prices to winner without Scottie, Scottie Scheffler market, right? There, some shops are posting both, and you might prefer a bet in one or the other.
21:20
Uh, the, the Oberg number was much worse in the winner without market with Scheffler, so I went the dual forecast there. Top five on Ludvig. And then only other go- golfers that I bet, Henley and Cameron Young.
21:30
Henley I've been betting regularly throughout the summer. Uh, he, he's just been playing great golf. He has good history at the, at this course. I laid off him last week, got a little upset at myself.
21:39
Um, so I'm backing on him at a top 10 pretty heavy at minus 118. Cameron Young in there as well, and then Cameron Young I played over, uh, Robert McIntyre and Justin Thomas in matchups.
21:48
We'll circle back around to my bets here- Okay... a little bit later in the show. But like I said, I've got outrights essentially on l- on, uh, on Viktor Hovland and [laughs] Corey Conners.
22:00
Uh, from a co- from, from a couple of months ago. I thought Conners was playing so consistently and so good that, like, a 67 to 1 on him at that point was going to be just absurd value. Mm-hmm.
22:10
And then he cooled off a ton. And then the 30, I think I have 34 or 35 on, uh, on Hovland. You can get him at 30 right now. So again, not, not a ton of value. I thought I was gonna be getting a ton of value.
22:20
That is actually not the case here. So- They got more value than my Xander Schauffele ticket from a couple months ago. So, yeah. [laughs] Well, I have, I made it the same time you did, too.
22:26
So that one's already in the trash can. You think you're better than the experts out there? Well, you can prove it in the Edge Boost Average Joe Contest.
22:32
The same, uh, format as the Circa Friday Football Contest, but cast, uh, contestants are average Joes instead of the pros, free to play. Go in.
22:40
You can w- earn a spot in our next year's 25 Pro Handicapper Circa Invitational.
22:44
Vsin.com/joe, vsin.com/J-O-E.
23:03
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers game here on a Wednesday. Matt Imburgia. Kelly Billings alongside. We'll put a bow here on the golf conversation. Uh, like I said, I didn't, uh,
23:16
didn't do the outright market. I honestly think Scottie wins the tournament. I think this is set up perfectly for him. By the way, he did that last week without his caddie. He gets his caddie back this week.
23:26
I mean, just everything, everything coming up Scottie. Yeah. Yeah, he's gonna be a tough takedown. This, this could be a fun tournament to monitor, though, just from a, just from the betting side of things.
23:37
Uh, w- with how short of a shot he is. Like, hey, I get it. There's a lot of people are gonna look down at that odds board and see a Shane Lowry 60 to 1- Mm-hmm...
23:45
and think about times that Shane's [laughs] pulled through for him in the past. Dude, there's only 30 guys in the field, Matt. What could go wrong? S- uh, I'm going Rory McIlroy top five, Ben Griffin top five.
23:54
Rory plays this course very well. Lots of course history here. Mm-hmm. This is one of those courses that we do have a ton of data on, so I'll play him to just play like he needs to.
24:03
Again, remember, this is top five out of 30 players. And then Ben Griffin at five to one.
24:07
I'm playing for a spike week here for Ben Griffin, but if you kind of look back at Ben Griffin, he's been one of the more consistent players over the last two and a half months on tour, you know?
24:17
And while Yes, he won earlier on, Kelly, and he hadn't really competed a ton here lately. You just go and you look and you see
24:25
if, if he, if, if he had, if he had missed the water here, or if he had kinda this here or something like that, some of these tee 12s and 14s and stuff probably would've been fives and sixes and, and, and maybe even some threes in there.
24:36
So Ben Griffin, let's, let's miss the water this week and just keep doing what you've been doing, buddy, and, uh, give me a five to one home here at Top Ten.
24:42
Well, one, one thing you don't have to worry about with him, uh, I mean, that putter's been red hot for about- Mm-hmm... four months, so know he, that's gonna keep rolling. Top Ten rolling with the hot hand.
24:50
This is more hot hand plays here with the Top Ten, still getting plus money on J.J. Spaun and Cam Young. Cam Young probably playing the most consistent golf he's played- Yeah...
24:59
in his whole career over the last month and a half. I, I mean, I'm b- y- you and I are both betting him, so like- [laughs]... yeah, so yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, and J.J.
25:06
Spaun, I mean, obviously I don't have to tell you about J.J. Spaun. I mean, this guy has just been absolutely on fire. Uh, and I'm gonna ride the hot hand here with him.
25:13
Again, top 10 out of 30, and still getting plus money- Mm-hmm... on these dudes. Uh, I'm gonna play Ben Griffin over Harry Hall. I'm gonna play J.J. Spaun over Collin Morikawa. I just told you I like J.J.
25:23
Spaun, so won't go there again. Collin Morikawa cannot putt it in a hole five times the size of a, of a normal golf hole. The dude is horrific right now on the greens, and so he can't save anything, Kel.
25:35
If you can't make a clutch putt here and there, and by the way his around the green stuff has been bad, too. If you're not absolutely dialed, I mean, you have to be so dialed, and he's not.
25:47
So it's just, uh, I'm gonna play the, the, the, this g- I think he's ready for the season to be over. I think he's ready to go back in the lab. Yeah. We know that Collin Morikawa likes to tinker.
25:55
He's, he, he- I like that one. I like that bet... he's a big time tinkerer, so. And then, uh, Ben Griffin over Harry Hall. We had a little bit of a debate about Harry Hall on the podcast.
26:02
If you wanna listen to that, y'all can go in and listen to, uh, me and Kelly's thoughts on, on Harry Hall. But, uh, I like Ben Griffin a lot more than I like Harry Hall this week. So you can get my full thoughts there.
26:12
Wherever podcast, but wherever you get your podcasts. Yeah, wherever. Wherever. Go in, download, rate, uh, subscribe, rate, review. That's what we want. We'll take, we'll take all that, please. Yeah.
26:20
Yeah, subscribe, rate, review. Let us know right in the, right in the little comment section about how, if you're on YouTube, how, how good we look. Mm-hmm.
26:28
That's, uh, that's self-editing by Kelly Bedell, by the way, if anyone's wondering. That's right. He's getting that done. So we talked a little bit about some of these award markets over in the NFL yesterday.
26:36
We didn't get to some of the other ones. Um, so I do wanna run through those and just get, you know, your thoughts, my thoughts on Defensive Player of the Year.
26:44
This, I will, I will tell you this: I don't know if I've ever made a Defensive Player of the Year bet.
26:48
I don't think this is one that ever really makes it into my account, and I got to thinking about it, and I don't really know why. It's, well, I, I, I mean, I know, I know why this year's tough, right?
26:59
[laughs] I mean, it's, and it feels like it's been the past couple years, it's not really o- o- one of the awards markets that I feel like I often bet, either.
27:05
But man, it is, we're, we're just stacked with pass rushers right now, right? And it's whi- which, which one of these elite pass rushers is gonna end up on the best team and put up the best stats?
27:15
And I think you're kinda rolling the dice. Aidan Hutchinson, Megan Parsons are at the top of the board, 7-1, Micah's 7, plus 750. I mean, he's, he's not even in theory playing, uh, right now for his team. Yeah.
27:26
And he's the second shot [laughs] this mark- [laughs] Miles Garrett plus 850, TJ Watt plus 950, Max Crosby 13 to 1, Will Anderson 13 to 1. It's just all pass rushers down the board.
27:36
Um- You, you could probably, I guess, I, I don't k- y- I mean, you might could do a strategy of, like, betting,
27:43
uh, you know, Parsons, Garrett, Watt, and Crosby walking away, and then you're just fading Aidan Hutchinson in the thought that he's gonna win Comeback Player of the Year. Mm. And, and then
27:55
just, you know, you're betting, what's that, one, two, three, four, you're betting five. You would make money no matter what, but, like, you're hoping that it's Crosby, you know, as opposed to whatever.
28:03
I, it, it's very hard to believe that it's gonna be anybody but these guys at the top because it's the counting stats, right? Yeah. I mean, they get the counting stats, and they get all the highlights.
28:13
That's the other thing. Yeah, the only, I thought I heard a good case earlier this summer, I think it was from Drew, from Drew Dinsak, uh, for Jalen Carter. But that number would need to be longer. Yeah.
28:25
22 to 1, k- 'cause, like, it's still gonna be a count- it, it's still counting stats. It's all, it's just a race to that. And, a- and his point was just, do, do we really know where the ceiling's at with Jalen Carter?
28:34
Can he, uh, be that big of a force inside for the Eagles that he can put, push himself into this conversation? I, I would need longer than 22 to 1, though, to get interested in that.
28:44
Offensive Rookie of the Year, I have two tickets that, uh, I'm not gonna say they're dead yet, but, uh, the Browns did the stupid thing and they're gonna start Joe Flacco.
28:51
So I, I have both, I had both Shedeur and Gabriel. Um, Gabriel I have at 100 to 1, and then I have Shedeur at, like, 70 to 1. So I just was like, "Okay, listen." Great numbers, bro.
29:04
These are, these are priced as if these dudes aren't gonna play at all, essentially, you know? And so I, I g- I don't think they're dead, but certainly, uh, they're circling the drain with all of that.
29:13
Your short shots, Ashton Jeanty at 275, Cam Ward at 350, Amarian Hampton at 750, 10 to 1 on Travis Hunter, Tet McMillan and Treveyon Henderson at 16, as is Tyler Shook, and then everyone else is 20 or longer.
29:26
I guess you get some decent news for Emeka Egbuka today, just from this betting standpoint, not great for- Yeah... obviously you don't, but, uh, McMillan's gonna miss about half the season for them there.
29:36
He was already, I think Egbuka was already gonna be the number two target anyway, uh, until Godwin gets back. But certainly fewer mouths to feed is, is just still gonna be better for, for him.
29:46
Jeanty's the rightful favorite, Kelly. He's going to, I, I, like I said, I think he could lead the league in carries when it's all said and done. It, if not, he's gonna be right up there. They're gonna use him a ton.
29:54
He's a three-down back, so he doesn't have to come off the field ever, either. A- and, and Cam Ward's, uh, I get it, he's a quarterback, but he's gonna be a really bad team.
30:01
So I, I, I think that Jeanty is the rightful favorite, and I was just trying to take him on with a, with some other quarterbacks that might could play their way into the conversation. But
30:11
it, it, Je- Jeanty is, if, if someone said, like, "Here's a, here's $10,000 and you have to bet it on one player," then I'm betting the $10,000 on Jeanty. I would actually go Ward.
30:21
I, I, the, I haven't made a bet, I haven't made a bet i- in Rookie of the Year, but I've kinda always found it a little odd that Jeanty is, is the favorite over Ward. I get what you're saying.
30:31
I just, are the, I mean, we're gonna talk AFC West. Are the Raiders really all that much better? How, you know, what is their game state gonna be where, you know- I, we know Pete Carroll's gonna wanna run the ball.
30:40
I, I, I get that. I, I just, I think I have questions with this Raiders team right now of how successfully they're gonna be able to do that.
30:46
Um, a- and c- just to Cam Ward, w- a rookie, a rookie quarterback is never gonna come off the field. It's just always got that, that going for him.
30:54
Um, even though I've re- I have major questions [laughs] about how good Cam Ward is and is going to be in this league.
30:59
I, I think the one on this board right now that has me the most interested, I'm gonna keep my eyes, uh, on, is Jaxson Dart, right? Mm-hmm.
31:05
Just keep your eyes on what this Giants quarterback situation is, 'cause this number 35 to one right now, okay, expect Russell Wilson to start. How many weeks does he go, though?
31:13
This number might get longer before he ends up getting, getting into the, uh, into the game.
31:17
Well, that's one of the things we can, you know, we've seen because the markets are so reactionary is, I mean, is actually week one could get here and people just be like, "Oh, I didn't even realize Jaxson Dart wasn't starting," and Russell Wilson starts, and yeah, that 35 turns into a 40- Right, yeah...
31:32
or something like that. Or longer. So I think that's something we could do. Uh, Defensive Rookie of the Year, the only thing I can tell you is d- do not bet Travis Hunter. He's sitting at 10 to one.
31:39
He's not gonna play enough snaps. He plays corner anyway, so, like, you don't get the counting stats whenever you play corner. Like, it's just my only advice in this market, do not bet Travis Hunter.
31:48
Yeah, I- That's a waste, not a waste... I'm not betting, I'm not betting him in either, right? Yeah. Offensive or Defensive Rookie of the Year.
31:53
I, I think it's just, I, I, I'm really interested to see how this works out with him this year.
31:57
But e- even if you're talking about his skills as a wide receiver, he's gonna be out there having to tackle on the defensive side of the ball, completely with you, Defensive Rookie of the Year. Uh, no interest here.
32:07
This is, this is another one where I know it sounds boring, but, like, man, I think Abdul Carter post 225, like, it, that might just be a good bet. Yeah. It might be a good bet.
32:16
Like, we know a good pass rusher's going to a team with a good pass rush situation already. Coach of the Year, I have one bet in my account. I bet Sean Payton. That number has been nuked.
32:25
I think a l- this, the Broncos love is, is, is heavy. Yeah, it's real. It's real. And we'll talk about that, and we'll talk about it a little bit later. I mean, I have 25 to one.
32:31
He's all the way down to 16 at, uh, at, at DraftKings. I'm sure you can find better if you shop around, but probably not a ton better.
32:38
I think if you go and you knock off the, the mighty Chiefs, then, then Sean Payton is, is certainly gonna be in the discussion for Coach of the Year. So I, I, I have Sean Payton.
32:47
I don't know if you have any other thoughts there on that one. Yeah, like, I... No, this is another one, I think, that's pretty...
32:50
I think you could make a case for a lot of, a lot of guys here just depending on what your belief in the team is. So, uh, I'm high on the, I'm high on the Broncos, too. I like that, I like that bet.
33:00
The, uh, Comeback Player of the Year market is always an interesting one, but I find it very hard to believe that it's not going to be one of the top three guys in this market- I bet it already... which makes it, like...
33:08
Yeah, I mean, it, it's either gonna be Dak Prescott or Aidan Hutchinson or Christian McCaffrey. It's gonna be one of those three- I-... for sure. They're all three not gonna flop.
33:14
I mean, I guess I'll include Trevor Lawrence in that, but to me, Dak Prescott ha- as a starting quarterback, and I got him at four to one, I mean, this is a shop around thing, but at four to one- Mm-hmm...
33:24
I was willing to jump in. As, as a quarterback, such an advantage over those other guys of when you're just gonna be able to look at stats at the end.
33:31
[upbeat music] Guys, we have the First Bet Travers wager guide presented by VSiN. Head on over. This is where we bet horses. First, first.firstbet.com/guide, so go in and take advantage of that.
33:41
And again, while you're signing up over there, use VSiN250 as your promo code. Not only can you make your bets on these horse races, you can watch them happen in real time. firstbet.com.
33:51
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:14
Numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Brown and Kelly Vidlin here on the desk. Gil will be back next week for you guys out there. And looking around, I see this screen behind us changed since yesterday, Kelly Vidlin.
34:28
Not the DYNZX screen. I can see that. That's still the same. There are now 19 Grandi Simo entries as opposed to 18, so someone rolled in here with 100K yesterday and, and signed up.
34:38
Okay, I don't wanna speak completely, uh, out of turn, but Mike and Derek were talking about this.
34:42
I believe this was just a rando sign-up, one that they were not expecting at all, that rolled in here yesterday and, uh, and asked about it. It's one of those, uh, things when I say roll in, it, it...
34:52
We think that 100K, like... In $100 bills, though, 100K, it's like, it's not that big. What, what movie is it where they put, like, the, was it a billion dollars or something- [laughs]... into the briefcase?
35:02
But, but- And like, that's it?... like, you think someone's, like, rolling in here with, like, a duffle bag of money- [laughs]... and it's like, no, it fits in, like, a... It could fit in, like, a little lunch pail.
35:09
[laughs] Like, you know? You're like, no, it's just, it's just hundreds aren't, you know? Like, it's just, it is what it is. Like, it's, you don't have to do that.
35:15
Yeah, it's, it's all funny until you, until you get p- paid a large amount of money in 20s. Yeah. And then you're sitting there like, "What? What?" Well, for you- "This isn't cool."
35:23
At least you didn't say ones, because then you'd be giving up where you went. Like, you know- Yeah, yeah... whenever you... He's like, "Yeah, one time I got this fat wad of one..." I mean, never mind.
35:31
I, that's, I don't... Y'all don't need to know what I did once. Someone gave... So I, I s- received $4,000, $3,000 of it was in 20s one time, and I was like, "Are you serious? Like, serious right now?"
35:41
Look at that humblebrag that he got- 20s... $4,000 one time. 20s, Matt. Look at that humblebrag. Kelly's like, "Yeah, by the way, I got, I got $4,000 one time." One, one time. Yeah, that's what it is. One time.
35:50
All right, so we're gonna talk a little bit more about this, not only the Grandi Simo, but just Survivor in general. Tony Farmer joining us here. Find his work at Oddsshark and SI as well.
35:59
Co- co-host of the Last Men Standing podcast @TonysMarketTips on the Twitter machine. Tony, how you doing, man? Doing good. Thanks for having me on, fellas.
36:07
This is a fun full circle moment for me, because it was Gil on this show back in 2020 that first sparked my interest in Circa Survivor. So we are sitting now at, uh, you know, n- like I just said, 19 Grandi Simo entries.
36:21
We have a $15 million guarantee on the $1,000 contest. When they announced the 100K contest, what, what did you think? What was your first thought as to how many they were gonna get?
36:31
Of course, they guaranteed 1.5, so that's 15 different entries. We've blown past that already. My first thought was, like, 30, but it wasn't really based on anything. I think it was kind of a big mystery.
36:42
As time has gone by, I think we're starting to get a little bit better of an idea of it. But Matt, I was wondering, like, how it would affect the normal survivor pool.
36:50
Like, is that pool gonna be a little less sharp because some people are putting some of their budget toward that instead, and things like that. So that was on my mind quite a bit.
36:58
Yeah, I think we're both interested to see, Tony, if there, there's more, you know, the more signups that continue, does that attract more of those sharp guys to try to go and beat, uh, beat that one as well?
37:07
So you've got a great piece up over at survivoratlas.com. You and I were ex- exchanging messages about this. I, I think it's awesome. We've, we've all... We...
37:15
For those of us who do shows, Matt's obviously all over the survivor documentary we have going on.
37:20
Uh, the big story the past couple years has been these week one upsets and kinda the big favorites losing, and you did a great piece, uh, laying out some of the details on this.
37:29
Just wanna start with kinda w- let you, let you speak about it, but kinda what was a big favorite and how, kinda how you attacked this article.
37:37
Yeah, so I looked at big favorites, and defined that as those favored by five points or more, and just started looking at trends. This all came out of the paranoia of week one. I didn't wanna fall into traps.
37:48
I didn't start off writing an article. I started off trying to find some info that would help me avoid some week one traps.
37:53
So we looked at things like, you know, quarterback, uh, experience during the preseason, was it a home team, was it an away team, how much experience does the head coach have, things like that.
38:03
So when we look at this, there's been theories that have been thrown out as to why we lose so many people early on in the weeks, and i- is, is there any, is there anything that you've found along the way that really points us to why this happens?
38:15
Is it because we are just, we think we know these teams, we don't really know these teams?
38:20
Are the point spreads maybe just a little bit off in the first few weeks to where these big favorites maybe shouldn't be as big a favorites as they actually are listed at? It's a good question.
38:31
So I, I don't know the answer. I have theories, right? Mm. But when the NFL started doing the three-game preseasons, I think that changed a little bit in terms of how the quarterback preparation is happening.
38:43
Like, one of the...
38:44
'Cause one of the nug- nuggets that I found in the article, every single big favorite who lost in 2000, uh, since 2020, again, big favorite by five points or more, had a starting quarterback who threw 17 or fewer passes in the preseason.
38:57
Four of the nine starting quarterbacks had zero snaps in the preseason. Six of the nine had seven snaps or less.
39:04
And just to kinda give you, like, a qualitative example to back this up, 2023, Vikings are favored by five against the Bucs. Maybe I'm bringing back some bad memories for people that lost on that game.
39:15
But Kirk Cousins enters the season with zero preseason snaps. He loses two fumbles in the first quarter, one from a quarterback-center exchange, the other one on a sack.
39:24
Now, of course we can't sit here today and say, "Oh, he lost those fumbles because he didn't play in the preseason," but I think it's fair to ask that question. There might be a little bit of a connection there.
39:33
Another example, 2022, Burrow, favored by seven points against the Steelers. Zero preseason snaps, fumble in the first quarter, and those were both close games. Yeah, Tony, I, I... That's great.
39:44
I think we're kinda seeing this all make sense even this preseason, right, with some of these teams playing some of their starters more.
39:50
We saw obviously Cincinnati the best example, making it clear that they were gonna get more playing time for their guys in the preseason, and we see that carry over, uh, into week one here at least the past few years.
40:01
So, uh, home road favorites, I think, divisional, out of division, there's a lot. We talk a lot about that. You don't wanna use, uh, in-division opponents. Avoid those as much as you can.
40:11
You think you're getting better off when you go for a big home favorite as opposed to a road favorite. You dug into the numbers, though. What did you find on those? Yeah, it's interesting.
40:19
Like, if you do a Google search right now for, like, biggest NFL survivor pool myths, you'll find information about how, you know, people think divisional teams are scary in survivor pools, but big favorites in survivor pools actually do pretty well when they're in division.
40:35
But I found the opposite when looking at week one big favorites. So is my sample size too small? You could make that argument.
40:43
Or is there something different about week one where these divisional favorites are actually in riskier territory?
40:49
So big division, uh, big favorites in division went 4 and 6 through two, since 2020, and non-divisional big favorites went 11 and 6. So big difference there. Again, small sample size, or might there be something to this?
41:03
Maybe you do wanna be careful of division favorites in week one. Talking to Tony Farmer, co-host of the Last Min Standing podcast, be sure to check that out, covering the all, all things survivor.
41:13
So we're heading into this season. We start to look at week one. Have you started to identify... You're probably putting together your own strategy right now. Do you feel there is a trap sitting right now in week one?
41:27
Yeah. I think Washington feels a little trappy. The Giants played Washington pretty tough last year. That defensive line against Washington is interesting.
41:35
One of the things I talked about in the article is that it seems like teams with good offenses that are going up against teams with bad defenses that are big favorites are a little bit susceptible.
41:46
We hear so much in the NFL about how, you know, defenses are ahead of the offenses this time of year.
41:52
And so I think Washington kinda fits that mold of a team that relies a little bit more on their offense and division situation. So that one scares me a little bit. Yeah, I think that makes sense.
42:02
Uh, Tony, just kinda getting away from week one, kinda biggest piece of advice you have for kinda listeners and viewers out there for how to play survivor.
42:10
Any b- any big tips, may- maybe things that you learned very quickly early on like we all do when we play these contests? Hey, I like that advice in the survivor documentary.
42:20
I forget who it was that gave it, but take a team that you can sleep okay at night with. And as we look at week one, would you guys agree with me?
42:27
I think the Bengals are the team that is gonna give you the most self-hatred if you lose with the Bengals, right? Because they've done it to us already in week one.
42:34
So if you go out with the Bengals, you're hating yourself. I feel like if you're gonna take that approach- The Broncos are probably the team that you can sleep okay with. If you say, "You know what?
42:44
Cam Ward is the next big thing." He won on the road in Denver against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Nothing I can do about that. Denver might make you feel a little bit better that way.
42:54
Um, but other advice, I think zig while other people zag. You know, some of the data that I dug up here, check this out, guys. Since 2022, these big favorites of five points or more are eight and eight straight up.
43:07
That should terrify anybody in circus survivor. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. That the last couple years, even the big favorites are a coin flip.
43:14
So maybe you wanna take a shorter favorite that a lot less people are on, if the big favorites are unstable as well. Just something to think about. @TonysMarketTips over on the Twitter machine. He is Tony Farmer.
43:25
Appreciate the time, and good luck this season. Thanks, fellas. Kelly, I am, uh, I, I'm, I'm debating a ton as to kinda how I'm gonna go about it this year, because I've never made it past week seven.
43:39
I've always done the all-in. Yeah. I've always done the shove. Yep. Right? Am I gonna split paths this year? That's kinda the internal debate that I have going right now. How many you going with?
43:49
So I've gone six the past three years. I'm trying to... If I, if I go split, I'm probably gonna go up to eight so that I can go four and four. Okay.
43:59
And then if I'm just gonna shove again, then I, I mean, I'll probably just stay at six, 'cause- No consideration of dialing back, though? No. It's $15 million, man.
44:07
[laughs] It's 15, 15- I feel like I've heard more of that in the past year than, uh- Dude, all you gotta... Dude, all you gotta do is- Just gotta pick the winner, man. Yeah, you just gotta pick the winners.
44:15
It's- Just gotta pick the winner. How, how hard can it be? It's, yeah. There's no point spread involved. It's, it's pretty easy. Guys, if you have not checked out Sharp Plays, head on over to sharpplays.com.
44:23
They've been in business since 2011. Documented results, public logs, and transparent receipts on all of that.
44:29
They got some AI plugged in over there, and they'll send you these picks either straight to your inbox or to your X feed. So again, that is sharpplays.com. When we come back, it is the AFC West.
44:43
Can they take down the mighty Chiefs? [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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