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Aug 20, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 20, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 20, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:50
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Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. The numbers told the story.
1:02
They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
1:19
It is a numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Kelly Bidlin remains on assignment back in Nashville, Tennessee. He'll be back on Monday.
1:29
Today on the show, Danny Higgins has put together a banger.
1:32
Will Hill will join us to talk Major League Baseball and National Football League, all of his bets that he has today and beyond coming up on the show this morning.
1:41
And then, of course, on the crescendo to Unscripted with the crack man Bill Krackenberger, which we always do at 12 noon Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific, a couple guests that will do some season-long stuff with us.
1:55
Paul Carr joining us to talk the global football, soccer as we refer to it. Paul's got a whole bunch of stuff, a whole bunch of different kinds of plays in the Premier League.
2:06
We're talking about a team to be relegated, team to finish last. That, of course, at the bottom of the Prem. But he's also going to do golden boot stuff,
2:17
all kinds of different season-long bets, and we'll track these all season long. Paul Carr on the Prem.
2:21
Then he'll come back tomorrow and actually give his standard three-pack of plays for the first weekend of Premier League football, if you will. And then Warren Sharp will join us.
2:31
We have, of course, had extensive segments on our VSin NFL betting guide. Aaron Schatz was here to talk FTN, their NFL betting guide for the year. Aaron Schatz's FTN, by the way, is the official title of that one.
2:45
Cleve was here. Cleve TA talked about his football preview. You know who we haven't had on the show yet this year? Warren Sharp with his football preview. Well, we remedy that today.
2:54
And as is Warren's thing, and this is always great when Warren comes on preseason because his sort of cottage industry is not only schedules, right? Easiest, hardest, the obvious thing there.
3:06
But he will also break down scheduling quirks with net rest, rest edge, which teams get the best of it this year, which teams get the worst of it. Are there three games in 10 days? Are there four games in 17?
3:20
Those were always bugaboos for him. We find out that that got remedied in what is always an interesting scheduling discussion with the National Football League because of all of our sports leagues, right?
3:31
It's the one that is the most imbalanced. It's the one that's the most incongruent just because unlike the other sports, divisions are playing other divisions specifically, right? Not full schedules.
3:44
If you've got 31 games and you got to play all 31 other teams, then it would be much more even. But this is just, it's bizarro in terms of not only who you play, but also
3:54
what kind of games you play in terms of rest and what your opponent's rest are, and then aggregate them not only on week-to-week or specific weeks, but also aggregate them throughout the whole season.
4:04
So we'll talk to Warren extensively about that. He's got his pro football guide out. Let's do the administrative stuff first. MLB August, I think we're done. I think we're not going to do a back-to-back here.
4:16
Tigers up 3-2 yesterday in Pittsburgh at PNC. Kenley Jansen takes the hill. We had Paul Spore on yesterday. Paul texted me after this game. He goes, I hate being so right with this.
4:26
Because all he said, he said the problem with the Tigers is they just didn't address the bullpen. And Kenley Jansen, of course, is the face of that as the closer. Gives up a one-out game-tying solo shot in the ninth.
4:39
And then with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, game tied. Tigers trying to push it to extras at this point. Brandon Lau off the right field foul pole. Or as Warner Wolf liked to say, the fair pole.
4:52
And the Pirates win. And so that drops the Tigers now. This is, it was great until this past weekend. And now it has all gone into the toilet. The toile.
5:03
It would require a winning streak of epic proportions here to get us back in this. But as it turns out now, it's probably not going to happen for our 60-1 shot on the Tigers. The Phillies now solo lead for August wins.
5:15
I know Mark Borchardt, that was his play for the month of August. So let's go Mark Borchardt. If we can't win, let's have him win at 13-5. Obviously, Phillies not nearly as long of a shot as the Tigers.
5:25
But the Phillies at 13-5 have the lead right now. Three teams behind the Phillies. Rays, Padres, and Cubs all with 12 wins. Then you see the Metropolitans, Cardinals, and Blue Jays all with 11 wins. Tigers mired.
5:35
And I do mean mired now at 9-8. Nothing special in this month of August. They do have a three-game set again at Kansas City this weekend. Better sweep or we go even further into the toile. Tennis yesterday. Clean sweep.
5:50
Hope everybody played the tennis yesterday. We had two plays. The clean sheet, I should say. The big one was Tiago Agustin Tirante who took down Jakub Mensik as a plus 183 dog. We win that in three sets.
6:05
And then Amanda Anisimova, one in four as they say in the tennis game. 6-1, 6-4 win. Clinical over Linda Noskova. That was at even money. So we hit both of those. Good day. Again, hope everybody was on it.
6:17
And here's the deal now. 'Cause we talk, I only have one play again today. We're in the quarterfinals in Cincinnati.
6:22
Again, the tour- the tournament that precedes the US Open here in hard court season, US Open, of course, being the Slam. Um, great quarters on the, uh, ladies' side.
6:31
Sabalenka got knocked out last night by Sarah Bejlek, which was just amazing. Um, Sabalenka's got something going on between the ears these days. But we have one play, and it's on the men's side.
6:41
It is once again, for the third straight match, Thiago Agustín Tirante, plus 278 versus Arthur Fils. So here's the deal again. This is... You know, we talk about this with sports betting, that sometimes,
6:56
uh, the narrative, the, the mainstream media narrative helps us as sports bettors. Well, few matches ago, Tirante played Novak Djokovic. My numbers pointed to Tirante.
7:06
I did not have the onions to, to play Tirante, uh, at that number against Djokovic, 'cause after all, he is Novak Djokovic.
7:15
Tirante ends up winning, but Djokovic ends up getting sick, vomits all over the place, literally, uh, on the side, uh, on the side during that match, and so that took the mainstream narrative.
7:25
Oh, well, Djokovic got sick. They don't have access to the numbers, though. Actually, Tirante might've won that anyway, even were Djokovic going full steam there.
7:35
Took him, took him the next match, Tirante against, uh, Martín Landaluce. We won there. Yesterday as the big dog against Mensik. Today we're taking him as a plus 278 dog against Arthur Fils.
7:47
Now, again, do I think Fils should be the favorite? I do, but I don't think Tirante should be anywhere close to plus 278. In fact, even plus 178 he probably shouldn't be. So Tirante is the play.
7:57
Let's go see if we can get that one a third straight win on... What did, what did Matt want to call him? Tat? T-A-T, Tat? See if we can do it again. This time as an even bigger dog than yesterday.
8:08
Uh, okay, we started this with Matt yesterday. Matt Brown was kind enough to join, um, me yesterday.
8:12
We started this with him yesterday, but I'll go through it again 'cause we didn't get through the end of it, and I wanna get the Drew Dincic angle. We have th- we have, uh, two NFL preseason games today.
8:21
We have three tomorrow. And again, um, just good to know what the, what the status is with the main players. Again, Vegas at Houston today. Kirk Cousins, of course, has taken the bulk of the first team reps.
8:34
Um, Mendoza has taken the bulk of the second team reps, but in this game, Raiders plan to give Mendoza extended first team reps against the Houston defense.
8:44
DeMeco Ryans, on the Texans' part, confirming that a change of approach here in week two as, as, uh, contrasted with what they did in week one. They're gonna play everyone healthy and cleared to play.
8:56
Everyone's gonna start here for the Texans. C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson, Nico Collins, they're in line for the first live snaps of the summer.
9:03
Now, let me incorporate the Drew Dincic angle here, which is he doesn't care about anything but the joint practices, and fading the team that got crushed in the joint practice.
9:13
In other words, taking the team that did well in the joint practice, and the assumption is they're gonna not play it as, as aggressively in the actual game that follows that.
9:24
Well, the Texans and Raiders had a joint practice, and all reports indicating that the Texans controlled the line of scrimmage, gave the Raiders major trouble.
9:33
Uh, Las Vegas struggled defensively through multiple pick sixes during the [laughs] controlled sessions, giving Houston clear momentum.
9:38
So if you're into the Drew angle, the Drew Dincic angle, this would be a play on the Raiders, minus one and a half at Houston tonight. There's one more we'll get to.
9:47
It's not actually tonight or tomorrow in terms of a joint practice angle. Uh, as far as the other game tonight, San Francisco at the Chargers.
9:54
Uh, ch- Mike Shanahan about Brock Purdy says, uh, "Haven't told him yet, but there's a good chance," meaning Purdy'll probably go today. Mac Jones didn't play in week one preseason either.
10:02
He'll probably get some reps today. No CMC, uh, no George Kittle, no Nick Bosa. Even Mike Evans left, uh, Tuesday's joint practice with leg soreness. A lot of, a lot of tightness.
10:13
That's the word that the Niners are using for a lot of these injuries, tightness. Substation conspiracy alert, tightness is what it causes.
10:21
Um, and then, uh, with the Chargers, starters are gonna play a series, then they're gonna come out. Jim Harbaugh very clear about this.
10:27
Herbert, Justin Herbert didn't play in week one, so this will mark his preseason debut under Mike McDaniel's system. Ladd McConkie, Quentin Johnson, they'll get some snaps as well. Tomorrow, Jets at Pittsburgh.
10:37
We said yesterday it was gonna be Aaron Rodgers. Not gonna be Aaron Rodgers anymore for Pittsburgh. It is going to be Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, Drew Aller, some combination of those three.
10:45
Drew Aller coming off the just ridiculously good performance in week one of the preseason. Uh, remember with the Jets,
10:52
Geno is touch and go here, but they have a real battle for the number two position like the Steelers do. Maybe even a, a m- even stronger battle for the number two position with the Jets.
11:02
Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook, Bailey Zappe, they'll all get some run tonight. Jets at Pittsburgh. Steelers are a one and a half point home dog there after the Aaron Rodgers c- news came out yesterday.
11:12
Tomorrow there's three games. Carolina at Jacksonville. Uh, Bryce Young and the starting offense expected to play multiple series for the second straight week under Dave Canales.
11:21
Uh, he's gonna play the majority of the starters for a couple of drives, they say, uh, for Carolina. And then with Jacksonville, Liam Cohen reversing course this week. He'll play his starters, he says.
11:30
So that's a j- a bit of a shift from his original plan to hold him out of every preseason game.
11:33
So he will play some Trevor Lawrence and others to, quote, "Uh, get a couple drives in potentially," unquote, against the Panthers. Uh, another one and a half point road favorite.
11:44
All three of these games we've mentioned, one and a half point road favorites. Green Bay at Denver. Uh, Jordan Love set to play for the second straight week. Matt LaFleur hasn't detailed how long he'll stay in the game.
11:53
Quote, "You're just gonna have to watch and find out." So I think it's pretty fluid. There you go. That's all we got from, [laughs] from Matt LaFleur.
12:00
Um, Love played only the opening series in the week one loss to Pittsburgh. Broncos are six-point home favorites. Bo Nix gonna make his preseason debut for the Broncos in that one.
12:10
And, um, as far as the other joint practice news, the other bit of joint practice news I wanted to mention, if you're, if you're into the Drew Dincic fade angle, mentioned the play on would be the Raiders then because they were so dominated by the Texans.
12:25
The other one this weekend is all indications from the Patriots and Eagles joint practice is that the Patriots Performed very well against Philly's defense,
12:37
and the Patriots' secondary dominated, so that would be a play on, on the Eagles on Saturday, if you're into the fade the joint practice good team angle that Drew loves so much. We'll come back. Will Hill joins us.
12:48
All his bets next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:04
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:18
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:25
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:34
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:43
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Week zero. College football's almost here with the NFL regular season right behind it.
14:11
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14:15
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14:23
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14:32
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14:41
Everybody, uh, tweeting in they're getting even better prices on, uh, Thiago Agustín Tirante, Tat, as we're calling him. Uh, Kurt says, uh, Fluffy Kittens says, "Bring it home, Tat." Fairway Fred... Or actually, first B.
14:54
Earl Nelson, "Tirante, uh, three to one, plus 300 at FanDuel against Feast today." Fairway Fred, "Tirante plus 315 at Profit X." Um, let me just, again, can we shout out, uh, Profit X specifically, since you bring it up?
15:07
I wasn't going to, but since you bring it up. Um, of all the prediction markets, that is the interface to me for y- for y- us as sports bettors, that's the one that is the, the clearest transitional interface.
15:21
In other words, you will recognize that, um, from all the years of sports betting quicker than you will the other stuff.
15:27
Now, if you pl- if you play on all them, eventually you will, it will be second nature, the pricing, right, being graded to s- to one or to zero. All that will become second nature percentages.
15:39
But as far as your transition, Profit X, it doesn't get better than that. And again, very clean pricing there as well, as opposed to some of the others.
15:47
If you ask me to explain Kalshian polymarket pricing to you right now, it might take three hours, because I, I could not do it in any articulate fashion, but Profit X, very straightforward.
15:57
So shout out from Fairway Fred on Tirante there, plus 315 at Profit X. Uh, and then Shrek McPhee, "Iga US Open looking better each day.
16:04
Sabba in this, uh, is in the same stage Iga was three m- three, four months ago, all mental." Yeah, I would agree with that comparison wholeheartedly. And I would also...
16:14
You know what I think, and that's Świątek has always been the number one player in the world, and he just had to get over what was happening between her ears. And you're right.
16:21
Sabalenka, um, she was, she was up 5-1 in the first set tiebreaker to, uh, Sara Bejlek last night, and she completely gagged it. She overcooked every shot.
16:33
When she wasn't overcooking, she was hitting the, uh, serves into the net. And, uh, here's a stat provided by the great Christopher Felica through, uh, what is this? Trenton Jocks on Twitter.
16:43
"Sabalenka now up to six straight big events without a semifinal, seven straight overall events without reaching a final." So I would agree with that comparison, Shrek. Nice job.
16:53
Uh, Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter, of course, at not the Will Hill, two Es on the the, and he's the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast.
17:03
He's gonna hang out with us this hour, and then I'm doing the Shoulda Bet More podcast. He was kind enough to invite me on later today. So we, we got a home and home, as you s- as you called it off air. Yeah, can't wait.
17:14
We're, uh, we're basically moving in together, so I'm excited. Uh- That's right. That's right... I'm always happy to be on and excited to have you on later.
17:19
I'm trying to think of, 'cause you're a pretty frequent guest on the, uh, the Shoulda Bet More podcast, as you like to call it, the I'd Wish I'd Wagered More, Now I Have Deep Regret, and, uh- Correct...
17:28
you, you, uh, abbreviated that for me, but, uh, it's been a while. You're welcome. You haven't been on, I feel like, I don't know, sometime during the summer. When was the last time you were on? Um, I don't know.
17:36
Eisenhower administration? I'm not sure. It was, it's been a while. Yes. Um, who- Yeah... who is your most frequent guest? Who has the most guest appearances on Shoulda Bet More? I actually keep the, uh, Tim...
17:45
I, I don't keep them. Tim Lawson, the Better Life, keeps these stats for the Megapod historically. Yes. I mean, you're up there. The Bear's up there. The Bear. Jeff Parles is up there. JVT's on a lot.
17:56
It's more, you know, it's, it, it's more, it's, it's who's available and who can, like, be versatile and, like, do other sports. So it's not like, you know, during football I can't have this person, or during...
18:04
It, it's the people that are, I w- I would say, I don't know. Just, uh, you know, you, Bear, I think JVT and Parles are the four- Yeah... that, uh, that come to mind. But it's been a...
18:12
I've, I've diversified a little recently. Had, uh, Brett Ciancia, Pick Six Previews on. It's, uh, it's good to get different voices on.
18:19
Scan the QR code on your screen for more if you want to, uh, download and subscribe to Shoulda Bet More podcast, which Will does three times per week. Three times per week. All right.
18:28
Let's get, uh, let's get some picks first from you. You got some baseball plays today. Yeah, uh, this is, uh, just, uh, an everyday thing. If you listen to Vosin regularly, you know what I'm gonna say. The Yankees under.
18:39
I think we're looking at under eight. Uh, they can't hit, but they can pitch, and one of the only times this has gone over, y- they've gone over in the last couple weeks was last week.
18:47
I was on with you, and it was, like, 10-5. That is their only over in the last, I wanna say, 10 days.
18:53
I think they're 12 and 2 the last 14 to the under, and it's, it's not that much more complicated than the offense is just not there without Judge and Bellinger and Stanton. It's just a really...
19:04
Uh, it's a team that really struggles to score. The bullpen's good. The starting pitching's outstanding. So it feels like every time you turn on a Yankee game, Gil, it's 1-1 in the sixth, it's scoreless in the seventh.
19:13
It's just a struggle to get that many runs. And got a little bit of a break last night with that Alonso ball that it was hard to get a good angle, but that certainly looked like a fair ball and a home run.
19:20
But I'm going back to the well here. I'm going under with the Yanks. I'm starting to see some seven and a halves, but there are some eights out there. I know DraftKings has an eight.
19:26
You, though, as a Yankees fan, you still believe, though, right, that when they're at full strength, they're the team to beat in the American League? Yes, but it's always...
19:35
I, and I said this the other day on the pod, it's becoming... It, there's just... Every time we talk about them, there's a caveat of, well, n- and now it's if they get Freed back, if they get Judge back. Yeah.
19:44
It just feels like we're too deep in the season and too many ifs where, yeah, if this were a video game and we simulate it and we turn off injuries and we just, you know, we play in a simulation, yeah, the Yankees might run through the American League because it's really not close, them at full strength and everybody else.
19:58
That's a loaded team. As much as I'm hard on them, and me and Barron and all the guys, we always, you know, complain about the Yankees and they don't spend like they used to. It's not George Steinbrenner.
20:05
If you have a team with Judge, Stanton, Bellinger, I know Rice has cooled off, uh, you add Garcia, and then a pitching staff Freed, Schwitler, Cole, I mean, uh, Weathers, Rodon, it's, it's a loaded team and a good bullpen.
20:18
That being said, it's just always these caveats. Well, when, when this guy gets back, when that guy gets back. It's like Whac-A-Mole where it doesn't feel like they're gonna be at full strength.
20:26
Now, are they good enough and is the American League weak enough where they can win it? At 80, 85%, they're probably gonna have to go through a best two out of three. They're gonna have to get guys back.
20:34
It just, I don't know, Gil, feels like a lot of ifs and a lot of caveats when you talk about the Yankees.
20:38
I always feel the need to say this for non-Yankee, e- to represent all non-Yankees fans, though, when, when this happens, though, is, and you know how I feel about this on the, uh, on the group chat, which is Chris Velica and S- Will and Will Hill Yankees fans complaining that, that the kid doesn't spend as much as his dad.
20:52
And then you rattle off that all-star team of players that you just- Yes... rattled off. You're like, "Oh, we sh- we'll cry for you."
20:58
It's just, ugh, so, such a, such a plight the Yankees fans have with this team, but I understand it. It wasn't like that back in the day anyway. Uh, this is- It used to be the Dodgers.
21:07
It used to be, get every player, whether you need them or not- Yeah... and more, more, more, and it was just over the top, and it was... Th- there's not that anymore. I think you would even admit that.
21:15
There is not that just- Yeah... you know, let's win, win at all costs. And George would be like, "I don't care if I break even. I just wanna win."
21:20
This, the, the, the kid is much more concerned about, you know, dr- getting, getting a profit, which- Well... they certainly do. The Athletics you are not is the point I'm trying to make. Yes. You would agree- Yes...
21:29
with that. Yeah. Correct. Uh, how about a Willie special? I like these. You, uh, you are locked into first threes. Yeah, I think f- I think Fez originated these. Fez kinda got me onto these. Yeah.
21:40
So I'll give credit where credit's due. I, I like these. These did really well yesterday and so many times ago.
21:44
For years I was an under bettor, and back when there was no DH in the NL, you'd get a, a Lincecum versus Kershaw, and you'd, you'd have the pitcher hit, and the game would fly by.
21:53
W- with the ghost runner, with the DH, I, I don't wanna handicap the bullpens anymore as much. It, there's more variance. It takes more time. I went to first five unders.
22:02
I've learned a lot, and there was a few examples of this yesterday and in recent days. Sometimes you bet the first five under, and you're clean through two or three. It's that fourth inning- Uh-huh...
22:09
the fifth inning, the second and third time through the lineup, where things blow up. There's an error. You know, the pitchers aren't as sharp, whatever it is.
22:15
So I've been doing more of this first three, get in, get out. Now, sure, you're gonna have situations where it, y- you know, you, you would've won the first five and not the first three.
22:24
It's gonna backfire at some, you know, sometimes. But Red Sox, Arizona was a perfect example yesterday. 1-1 after three. First three under's a winner. After five, it's, like, 6-4.
22:33
So, um, I, I'm going back to, uh, first three under here. Jays and Rays. Bieber going for Toronto. He's actually been solid lately. I think three of the last five starts, one earned run or less.
22:44
One of those was against Tampa late July where he only gave up one run, three hits over seven innings. He's got a weird start in there against the Nats, right?
22:51
I didn't remember this game, but I, apparently he walked six guys in the first inning, which has kinda screwed up his numbers, but he's been better. Seymour, the lefty, going for the Rays.
22:58
If you look at the Jays, Gil, uh, bottom of the league, 30th OPS against lefties. So give me, uh, give me 1-1 after three, and we'll get in, we'll get out, and we'll try to cash this one.
23:07
Yeah, the first five stuff you say is so true. Like, if you, if you had a dime for every, every first five bet you lost in the fifth inning.
23:13
And it makes complete sense based on how starting pitchers just, you can, you can look at the FanGraphs page. First time through the order, second time, third time, and how it just is, devolves the, it is a perfect line.
23:25
It, for most pitchers. There are, obviously are exceptions, but for most it goes that way. And then you have a season long, or at least the remaining season long here for us.
23:34
Dodgers are plus 1,200 at FanDuel to get the three seed. I, I know one of the things we talked about in the group chat is, like, playing the Dodgers under the wins. The pitching is, you know, comes and goes.
23:43
Their offense is starting to show a little age. I know they've gotten healthy here the last few days, and it seems like going to Coors and playing the Rockies is always the perfect antidote for them.
23:51
But hey, you can't play the Rockies, you know, 20 more times the rest of the year. I think they're actually done with Colorado. They play Pittsburgh, and they go to Atlanta. They're only two games up on Atlanta.
23:59
If Atlanta, I know they haven't played well recently, the Braves, in the last week or so, and that division's gotten a little closer.
24:04
But if Atlanta can take care of business and win two out of three or sweep, uh, the Dodgers, I still think there are some issues there with the age, Betts and Freeman. Tucker's been a disaster.
24:13
The bullpen's been a disaster. So 12 to 1 for me to, to, you know, to get the three seed. I think that's just too long of a number, and it's a way to f- fade the Dodgers here as, uh, we're coming down the stretch.
24:22
I like it. It's also the s- the beauty of the short runway of just five and a half weeks left of regular season baseball. Imagine Dodgers getting a third seed.
24:30
Not only will you cash your 12 to 1, but then the Dodgers have to deal with a high variance best of three if that ends up being the case with the, uh, Major League Baseball playoff format. War with Will.
24:40
And maybe against Philly. And maybe... Oh. [laughs] That's right, and maybe against Philly. More with Will on the other side. We'll talk some NFL with him, maybe more, college, who knows?
24:51
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
25:07
Rainbow Authentics and VSiN are taking the bets to the beach. Tim Murray and Matt Youmans are heading to Hawaii for a special edition of VSiN Primetime live from the islands Wednesday, August 26th.
25:18
That is a week from yesterday, so six days from now. Plus, a beach edition of the College Football Betting Podcast, breaking down all the week zero action.
25:26
Join us, VSiN in Paradise, live from Hawaii, Wednesday, August 26th, starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, only on VSiN. So let me get this straight. These guys are going to Hawaii. There's no game in Hawaii. Is that true, guys?
25:36
They're just, they're just hanging out in Hawaii. That is awesome. I'm being told yes. That's g- that's awesome. Good for them.
25:42
[smacks lips] Game is actually at Stanford, and they're gonna be in Hawaii just hanging out, doing some, uh, doing some shows, and then the College Football Betting Podcast.
25:50
Again, live edition, week zero action, Wednesday, August 26th, VSiN in Paradise. Rainbow Authentics with that logo that you see Tim wearing on his hat all the time.
26:01
Uh, Will Hill kind enough to join us for, uh, for some time this morning in the first hour. Um, we'll, we'll segue into Will's college football thoughts and plays for the season, some season longs.
26:10
But Will, right before we got on air, you were mentioning c- y- y- our boy Steve Fezzik. Can we call him our boy? Stevie Fezzik- Yes... uh, who I always, you know, take to task here when he's on air.
26:20
I say, "You know, you're a relatively decent human being in real life," relatively, by the way, t- uh, Will. Um, and then on Twitter, you're an abomination from hell, like you're the worst human being alive.
26:30
You say he got into it with a guy that I just n- I just said should be the next person in any Sports Betting Hall of Fame, Elihu Feustel? What are they, what do they get into?
26:38
Y- yeah, I w- I don't know, getting into it, and again, that, that for you tab on Twitter, sometimes y- things pop up and you think it's recent, so I guess this is from yesterday.
26:46
It doesn't seem contentious, but, uh, stop me if you've heard of this before. Fezz going back and forth about CLV and what it means to, like, your win rate and overcoming the vig.
26:55
I don't wanna step on Fezzik Friday, but just a little @FezzikSports, little e- back and forth with Elihu and Fezz about, you know, what it means to get CLV. So, uh- Who, who took- Some, some good content there...
27:05
well, let me guess.
27:06
Elihu took the position, 'cause I haven't seen this, but my guess is that Elihu took the position that getting the best CLV over time indicates that you are going to be a successful bettor more than Fezz did?
27:19
Uh, there's a l- it's tough 'cause there's a lot of tweets and quote t- uh, quote tweets. Elihu says if the push rate of that total is 2.4%, you had about 2.4% CLV. The wager's a long t- term winner.
27:31
The hold will crush the book. I- it- it's, th- there's a lot- Oh, okay. Guess I need to check... so I would just encourage people to go check it out.
27:35
But hey, Friday at noon, I'm sure Fezz will be on to, uh, noon Eastern with you- [laughs]... to, uh, to explain all this and go into it.
27:41
One of, one of the great, uh, group chat things is Will praising, uh, praising Fezzik, over-the-top praise just to annoy Todd, and I don't think Todd ever catches on, by the way, that it is over- that it is not the [laughs] most authentic praising.
27:56
Uh, all right, to college talk. They are great segments. Oh, th- uh, he's, he's fantastic. He, Stevie is great radio. Uh, say what you will about him- And-... and oh, I, I will say what I will. Yes.
28:05
[laughs] What you were saying, and? The last thing too is Fe- uh, uh, well, Todd will get annoyed if Fezz will sometimes repeat the content, not realizing not everyone listens to every minute of every segment.
28:14
That's right.
28:14
So if Fezz, for example, gives a fast times at Ridgemont High quote again or, you know, mentions the thr- the $1.99 hot dogs at South Point where you can get back in line for three more, Todd gets annoyed that the content [laughs] gets repeated, which makes for, uh, just, uh, so- some good, some good humor, some good comedy.
28:30
That's right. It's the, uh, well, from my music days, it's the Sexual Healing philosophy, the Marvin Gaye Sexual Healing philosophy. We would play Sexual Healing 5,000 times, and as the disc jockey- Play the hits...
28:40
you get sick of it, but every time somebody punches in, they wanna hear Sexual Healing. "Ah, this is, this song is outstanding." So it's like you have to completely toggle between those two things.
28:50
What, what are some of your favorite college football season longs that you got going?
28:56
Uh, Penn State, I think you still ar- you, you can still get around four to one to make the college football playoff, and I don't have make the playoffs in Connecticut, so I can't check the, uh, you know, the, the current numbers with that.
29:07
Uh, that's just one of those weird state rules. But, uh, if you look at their schedule, there, there are some good teams in the Big 10, Gil. They avoid all of them. They avoid Indiana- Yes, they do... Oregon.
29:16
Um, y- who's the other one I'm thinking of? Ohio State. I mean, look at that. Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin. Home versus USC. We know USC hasn't traveled.
29:24
Uh, there's a v- uh, at Michigan's tough, at Washington's tough, but there's a very real path, I think, for Penn State. And over eight and a half is juiced, I would certainly look towards the over.
29:33
And there's a real path. They go 10 and two, and we are gonna have, like I can just sense it, I can just see it, these debates come December.
29:40
I don't know if it'll be as contentious as a few years ago with Florida State versus Alabama because once you get to 12 teams, it's not, uh, it's not like four where these teams have legitimate gripes.
29:47
But the 10 and two Big 10 team with, say, a soft schedule versus, like, the nine and three SEC team- Oh... that had to play a gauntlet, there's gonna be a lot of screaming, yelling, finger-pointing. "We did more."
29:58
"No, we did more." But I think a 10 and two Big 10 team is probably a favorite to get in the playoff, and I think that path is very real for Penn State.
30:05
And that four to one price tag looks intriguing on Penn State to, uh, to make the playoff.
30:09
That is 100% going to just dominate the airwaves for a week or two heading into that final selection show, the final, uh, the sixth of the six college football, uh, selection shows.
30:22
It's totally gonna be about can a three-loss SEC, because with the extra conference game, right? There's gonna be- Yep...
30:28
really good nine and threes that are going to either get caught in or they're gonna get left out, and most likely, one will get left, one will get left out. It'll all be inconsistent reasoning.
30:37
They'll use some reasons for, for acceptance and the very same reasons for non-acceptance. You know the, you know the drill. Um, anything else of note season long that you have?
30:49
Season long, uh, I've mentioned this on this show, the number's come down. It's come down, I think, for good reason. I think I gave it on your show maybe a month or so. Georgia was plus 325 to win the SEC.
30:58
That's more like 260, 270 now. Oh, yeah. I mean, I still like it.
31:01
I don't know if I'd play it any further, but I mean, I think we've all heard they have a favorable schedule, sort of like Penn State, where they avoid Texas and LSU and Texas A&M and Tennessee. It's at Bama.
31:12
It's at Ole Miss. They get Oklahoma at home. If you can split those two road games, and they're gonna be favored in every game. They bring back a ton of talent. They bring back the quarterback.
31:20
Uh, it's weird to say Georgia's kind of being slept on or underrated, forgotten about, because they were so dominant in college football, uh, you know, two or three years ago, three or four years ago.
31:29
But even, you know, i- in down years, quote-unquote, where they lose in the quarterfinals the last two years, they win the SEC or get to the SEC title game pretty much every year.
31:36
I think they've been there eight of the last nine years. You'll probably get there. You'll probably be in the game and be a big favorite.
31:41
So, you know, I probably wouldn't play it much lower than plus 260, but I still think that's a good bet. And, uh, same with Miami.
31:48
I just think Miami in the ACC, even though that's odds on and you gotta lay a price that's not sexy, it's sitting your account from now until December, I mean, that ACC schedule is pretty favorable.
31:57
They're so much better than everybody else.
31:59
I know Cristobal has a habit of losing games he's not supposed to, and again, you're, uh, you're, you're tying up money for a while, but they should be in that game, and they should be a pretty significant favorite.
32:08
So I think Miami in that minus 140 or so range is still pretty playable to, uh, to win the ACC. I'll give you a game I like. I... And this is the first one in college football, Gil.
32:17
You talked, we talked a little bit about it last year. Uh, w- we know Michael Lombardi. I know he's not with the program right now. And we know Belichick, you know, just the way he builds a program.
32:26
I like that under 47 and a half in that game against TCU.
32:28
If they're g- those guys are gonna build a program from scratch and, you know, year two, they kind of mold it into what they wanna do, what they like, defense, running the ball, being conservative.
32:38
I know t- both quarterbacks kind of inexperienced. I think that 47 and a half, the first game of the year, probably offenses maybe not as, you know, on the same page, things like that.
32:46
I think that 47 and a half is a touch high. I like the under in that game. That, anything else week zero, or is that the one? I think that's the one. There's some stuff in week one that I was looking at.
32:56
By the way, in week zero, I think it was, I think it was last year, everybody liked Hawaii, and it got home. It, it, it was not easy, but it got home, I think, on a late field goal. Was that that game against Stanford?
33:06
Seems like that flip. Seems like everybody likes Stanford. Yeah. Yeah. That was a brutal football game to watch, yes. I had Stanford, I believe. Yes, it was. Yeah. Yes, it was. Uh, so w- could, finish your thought.
33:16
I'm sorry. What, what about this one? You, you think everybody- No, j- just seems like everyone, even though everyone was on Hawaii last year, seems like everyone seems to agree Stanford's the right side.
33:25
But you're missing the best of the number because this opened, I think, Stanford by three or four, and we've gotten up to, like, five and a half, six in some spots. So,
33:33
um, I, I don't have a play there, but just happy it's back. I mean, think about it. We got a, a couple days till Saturday. What are we, eight, nine days away from- Yes...
33:40
from having, like, college football games that count. Everyone has... It's funny, everyone has their different version of when does football start? For some people, it's the Hall of Fame Game.
33:47
For some people, it's, like, week one of the NFL regular season. To me, last week, that Thursday, where you get a bunch of preseason games at once, that felt like football is back.
33:54
But once you get college football games that actually count, it's har- it's hard to, uh, hard to argue that football isn't back. I am totally a week one NFL guy. I would fall under that category. I get it.
34:04
Football's happening, but that's, that's the true story. Well, real quick on college football, but, and this is sports talk radio for 90 seconds. But let's just go back to the top of college football.
34:12
Let's say Texas goes- Yeah... because we have NFL teams, right? That are essentially tanking for a quarterback here. They have no intention, like, you know, uh, of, of, of actually succeeding this year.
34:24
They won't say that word, but that's essentially what's happening. Let's say Texas goes nine and three. They don't win a national championship.
34:29
Arch has a very g- Arch Manning has a very good college football season, but he's the, the number one pick in the draft, let's say is the Arizona Cardinals. Let's say it belongs to them.
34:38
Set a line on him returning to Texas for next year. Ooh. Boy. Uh, I would say, I'd say minus 180 he goes to the NFL. Ooh. I don't know, though. That's a good question. Really? Okay.
34:53
I thought you were gonna go the other way on that. What would your number be? Um, a slight favorite to staying because I just think we, we- Meaning you think he wants to avoid the bad organization- Yes...
35:02
kinda like, uh, like Eli did? Correct. Yes. Okay. I, I picked Arizona specifically- Yeah... because if, if it was, if it's the Jets, if it's Miami, weather, right? Whatever.
35:10
Like, whatever your, your like is New York City, obviously the biggest market.
35:14
But if you, if you just took a, a more moribund, you know, an equally moribund franchise but without the sort of cachet of anything, so Arizona fits that bill, what would he do?
35:23
And I just think we live in an era where you can... I mean, mil- multi-millions, right? Yeah. Staying in college. Why, why, why rush it? I don't know. I... But I don't know what's in his head. I don't know. We shall see.
35:36
We shall see on that. Obviously, there's risk of injury. There's other factors. So- Yeah... it's, it's no lock, that's for sure. Will will join us for some NFL talk on the other side. Will Hill hanging out.
35:45
Still to come, Paul Carr, Warren Sharp, Bill Krackomberger. It's a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:51
[upbeat music] Work.
36:08
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is a Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander hanging out. We got tweets made about Kenny G. Not that Kenny G.
36:19
Different Kenny G. Uh, "Morning, Gil. I was in town a few weeks ago signing up for the Circa contest. Guess who we ran into? Bill Krackomberger. Bill was kind enough to stop and spend 20 minutes with us.
36:29
Please tell Bill he was so right about the veal parm at the Italian American Club. Have a great show." Thank you, Kenny G. Yes. Billy is, uh, very personable, hangs out, stops, talks to people. Uh, he's a good man.
36:41
He'll be here a little later on for unscripted. LFC Title Records, "Football starts August 29th when bets on college football futures officially begin. I love Will and he's an excellent sports bettor.
36:53
However, I think I might fade, uh, all of his picks on the Megapod this year. [laughs] Thoughts? Todd Wishnow."
36:58
See, this is, this is just a guy ribbing Will, who, uh, is being encouraged by Todd, because Todd's big thing is he smack talks Will for picking the Titans all the time on the Megapod, and perhaps, um, ending up with a one and two record sometimes.
37:12
That's- that I'll just paraphrase. Scott C., "Between all the exceptional handicapping, the pods, the family, and training for Mr. Olympia, where does Will Hill sl- uh, when does Will Hill sleep?"
37:22
is the question from Scott C. I have no idea. He's got 75 kids. Will, what do you have to say for yourself? When do you sleep? Any time? I'll start with, uh, I'll start with the Megapod.
37:31
Look, he, I got, I've- I've taken my medicine and I got... You gotta take your medicine. You don't do well. I'm- I'm already looking at [laughs] week one. I've been looking at week one all summer- [laughs]...
37:39
trying to, uh- Yeah...
37:40
trying to turn it around, and you get in your head sometimes, you're like, "Man," and, and that's like the worst thing in betting when you start to doubt yourself, and you're like, it's just, there's that uncertainty.
37:49
But I'm, uh, let's see. This year's a new year. I will be very anxious for week one, but I would do just about anything for a three and O, and- Yeah...
37:57
I'd rather win millions, I'd rather win Survivor than have a good year on the Megapod. But the fact that I have to even think about it- [laughs]... that shows you how bad I wanna, uh, wanna get back on track.
38:05
It's a lot of pressure. As far as, like, the kids, it's funny. You- you mentioned Crack. While being at Bet Bash a couple weeks ago, it was so fun meeting everyone, talking to everyone. I met Crack in person.
38:14
One of the first things, I think the first thing he said to me, "How the bleep do you afford four kids? I can barely afford my wife," in that typical Crack-like cadence. [laughs] Yeah.
38:22
He's just, he's such a great dude, and I'm, uh, that's another favorite hour of mine. I'm looking forward to, uh, hearing him coming up. Let's, uh, let's do this exercise.
38:29
Let's go through, uh, all eight divisions in the NFL, and let's go with your pr- Yeah... your projected order of finish, one, two, three, four. You down to do this? Sure.
38:38
Gil, Gil, it sounds like you're gonna say no to me here on this. Oh, no, I don't- I know, exactly... I don't feel like doing that, Gil. I really, uh, I'd rather do something else.
38:44
Let's, uh, let's start with the NFC East. Give me the one, two, three, four, how this ends up. I'll go Cowboys, Eagles, Commanders, Giants. Did you just put the Commanders three so I didn't get upset?
38:55
Is that what you did? Yes. Or are you sincere? [laughs] "Yes," he says. Both. Both. [laughs] Both. Cowboys first, Eagles second. Really? Okay, one of them. It'll be close, I think. Don't encourage Dave Ross.
39:09
Don't do that. NFC- Oh, man... NFC North, your NFC North with your Vikings. One, two, three, four. This might be the hardest. I'll go Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears. Boy, that's- Wow...
39:25
whatever, that, that's gonna be a good last place team. What a homer. I just think the Bears, I mean, they created 33 turnovers, plus 22 in turnover differential.
39:31
They're already beat up on defense, got a lot of injuries. They might be, they, they might, and they got a first place schedule. I, I like Minnesota, I, I think, and I never, you know, picked the Vikings.
39:40
I was not high on them last year. I don't care what you think of- of, uh, of Kyler Murray. [laughs] I don't, you're the biggest Ky- you could be the biggest Kyler Murray detractor there is.
39:47
He is so much better than McCarthy. They went 9 and 8 last year. They avoid the Seahawks, they avoid the Rams. I'll go, I'll go with Minnesota here to, uh, to win the division. Yeah.
39:55
I, I'm not gonna go through it again, 'cause we've gone through it several times here during the summer. Yes.
39:58
But when it comes to Murray, people, for whatever reason, and Mayor of Munchkin Land was, was Lombardi's phrase, right? Yes. But that's emblematic of how people sort of snicker, right?
40:08
When there's certain players, they'd be, "Uh, Kyler Murray," right? You know, they, they sort of do that.
40:12
But when you actually, when you actually look at it, when he's healthy, he's actually a really competent quarterback. He's not great, but he's a super competent quarterback, like borderline top 10 in 2021 and 2024.
40:25
And so if Ryan Flores can keep that defense, that's an if. That's a big if. But if he can keep it elite, um, Vikings one from Will. Was it Vikings, Lions? What did you have? Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears was your order?
40:36
Okay. Packers, Bears, but to be honest, you could throw a blanket really over the four teams. I mean, you could pick out of a hat. You told me Minnesota finishing last.
40:42
Kyler Murray got hurt, and it fell apart, and you know, McCarthy's back in there and they went 5 and 12. I'd say, okay, I'm disappointed but not, not shocked.
40:50
I don't know how you could be shocked by any order of those four teams in that division. Speaking of that, maybe, maybe I shouldn't have said the hardest was the NFC North. NFC South, good luck, one through four. Oh.
41:00
This obviously- I was on Atlanta, but I- Yeah. It could be anybody... Tua, Tua didn't look good. Go ahead, sorry. No, no, I was, this, this really could be anybody. Go ahead. I'm sorry.
41:09
I'll go Saints, Bucs, Falcons, and the other team, the Panthers. [laughs] But man- The other team... I mean, just retweet what I said about the, the North. [laughs] I mean, how, how could you have any confidence?
41:21
I mean, they're all... I mean, look at the win total. They're all within a game of each other. You know, Baker was great to start last year, the first five or six games.
41:27
MVP, what, for short shot or right, right there, and then he stunk the last half of the season. Saints look like an up and coming team. The schedule's favorable, but they already lost Tyson.
41:36
I, I, I bet Atlanta to win the division, but Tua hasn't looked good. They lose Jalyn Walker for the year, and they lose Pierce for half the year, which he deserved to get suspended. I mean, your guess is as good as mine.
41:46
What was your order again? Repeat that. Saints, who else? I have no idea. Uh- [laughs] It was, it was Saint- it was Saints, Bucs, Falcons, Panthers. Saints, Bucs, Falcons, and the other team, he said. Panthers.
41:56
They were the pl- Yes... uh, they, I don't know if you know this, but they won the division last year, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. I picked them to win the division last year- Yeah... in the, uh, in the NFL guide.
42:02
I had them and I had the Bears, so as bad as it was in the Megapod, my NFL, uh, my, my betting guide division picks were pretty good. They were both, like, you know, five to one or, or longer. Okay. NFC West.
42:13
This, it, this, I find this more interesting than most people do, I think, but what is your order in the NFC West? Yeah. [sighs] I'll go Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals. I'll go boring.
42:28
But, uh, I've been making this point, I don't know if you and I have talked about it.
42:31
I can't remember, and aside from Denver in 2016 'cause Peyton Manning retired, I can't remember a Super Bowl champion that's being this slept on- Dude... that's being this kind of forgotten about- Yes...
42:40
where it's like, "Yeah, they won, but who's gonna win it this year? It's definitely not gonna be them." Like, nobody's picking them. Uh, the schedule, it, it's interesting.
42:46
Their schedule's back loaded because they don't play the Rams at all until Christmas. They play them- Christmas and then like January 10th. The season goes super late last year.
42:53
We have regular season games on January 10th. But the Rams schedule is early. I, I, you know what? I'll flip it. I'll say Seahawks, then Rams- Okay... then 49ers, then Cardinals. That's what I was looking for.
43:01
No, I mean, I get it. The Rams are, you know, we have a lot of people who project the Rams as like leaps and bounds. Some leaps, some bounds, some both leaps and bounds better than every other team.
43:10
But I, I agree with exactly what you're saying, which is I just don't understand why people are so convinced there's going to be a downturn on the Seahawks. I really don't.
43:21
And I think their, just their defense is going to be well-coached again. I think they get better as the season goes on. I, I just, I, I'm with you there.
43:29
And the Niners I was super bullish on, but now all the injuries, you know, how, how bullish can you be? Um, but again- But it's an older core, too. Yeah. And it seems like they're always hurt. Have you watched...
43:38
Now we gotta do the other divisions. Have you watched Hard Knocks? Because- No... I started to catch up. McDonald is pretty impressive. He's smart. He thinks.
43:45
You think he's like too nice, but then he absolutely flips out and unleashes on a player, cursing him out. "I'm in charge. You're not." Wow. If you think he's like the nicest guy. I was impressed with McDonald.
43:52
Like, it's, it- that series, we've talked about this, it's lost its luster. They don't show the cuts. There's so much access to NFL coverage now. But this, this one has been, uh, this one's been pretty good.
44:02
Oh, interesting, because I have not thought about watching it for one second. Yeah. Fi- finally I got to a year where it was not even in my, my purview. Okay. AFC East. AFC East.
44:15
This is a little more straightforward I think. I'm gonna go Bills, Patriots, and then Jets, Dolphins. I mean, you can flip a coin between the top two. You can flip a coin between the bottom two.
44:23
Well- Uh, I just think the Bills... I mean, you look at Allen. M- he was a rookie in 2018. They missed the playoffs. Every year since then, look at how many wins they have. It's, it's 11, 10, 11, 13.
44:33
They're, they're always 10, 11 plus. You know, 10's a bad year. And the Patriots, the schedule's tough for both teams.
44:38
I'll just say the Bills have a higher floor, and go with the Super Bowl hangover angle, which I do think is a real thing. And then, uh, Jets are a little bit better than the Dolphins. So Bills, Pats, Jets, Dolphins.
44:48
Remember, you can bet on these exact as one, twos. You can bet on one, two, three, fours at Books. Uh, AFC South. Jacksonville, Houston, and I don't think- AFC South, boy, this is another tricky one...
44:59
I don't think I've had maybe one person who has not been on the Texans winning this. Maybe one person. I'll go with the Texans. That defense is awesome.
45:06
I know defense doesn't always translate year to year, but that defense is so good. I'll go chalk here. I'll go Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans. Earmuffs, I think the Titans could be better.
45:16
[laughs] Ward, you know, and, and Saleh, Daboll offensive coordinator. I, I'm not laying the three with them. Week one, Todd Wishnev against the Jets, I'm not laying points with that team.
45:24
And that team has done plenty to me to, uh, to hurt me, but- As they do... I'll go chalk here. Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans. All right. AFC North. Are you a Ravens guy, or are you a Bengals guy? I'll go Bengals.
45:35
Everyone seems to be on the Bengals. I don't really, don't, I, I, I specifically don't like that under or that 11 and a half for Baltimore. To me, I mean, they just always get the benefit of the doubt.
45:43
I'll flip them and go Bengals, Ravens, and then I'll go Browns, then Steelers. Ooh. And you know what? Maybe the Browns.
45:49
If I had to pick one kinda, "Oh my God, that team is eight and four, and that team is flirting with the playoffs," maybe the Browns. A little better at skill positions than people might think.
45:57
They're always pretty good at defense. They always play good defense at home. Can you get anything, I mean anything, out of Watson, which is just one of the worst transactions any team will ever make?
46:06
Maybe Cleveland's a little sleeper-ish, so I'll go Cleveland with the three. Okay. So I'll go, I'll go Bengals, you know, Bengals one, Ravens two, Browns, Steelers four.
46:12
'Cause I, I was about to say, are the Steelers the most obvious third-place team in any division? But before I could say that, you, uh- Yeah... dispelled that right there. And finally, the AFC West. Order of finish.
46:23
I'll go Chiefs now, because the Chargers are already beat up on the offensive line. So I'll go Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos.
46:28
You could throw a blanket over those three, and we know the Raiders are probably gonna finish last. I think it's the Broncos. I think the Broncos. Tough exercise. Yeah. Well, that's why you're here, Will. Appreciate it.
46:38
Yeah. Looking forward to Should've Bet More later today. Should've Bet More podcast. The host, Will Hill. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Thanks, man. Coming back, Paul Carr, Prem season longs, a bunch of them next
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