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Aug 23, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 23, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 23, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning.
0:10
Tune in to Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we are grateful. We do appreciate it. I mean that sincerely every morning.
0:19
It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Midlin. Yo, yo, yo. Yeah, your mic's gotta be on. I hit the wrong button. That's all right. That, that's good. We'll get better. [laughs] We'll get better as the show goes on.
0:29
[laughs] Uh, on, [laughs] on the show today, uh, Paul Carr off a 3-0 start to his Premier League season. He, uh, threatened to retire at that moment, and we were like, "No, you gotta, you can't retire after 3-0."
0:40
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So he's- I- I've got an aggressive Paul Carr text. Um, let's see, it was, uh, yeah, he's, he threatened to retire, says, "I'm just gonna, nah, I'm good. I'm just gonna call it a season at 3-0."
0:49
[laughs] Uh, I got a graphic order from him, which was good. Oh, my. Really? Yeah, yeah, it was like, "Hey, make sure you get this together." Wow. Yeah. All right, Paul's coming up.
0:57
[laughs] Premier, Premier League week deux, uh, coming up, or, uh, week two we should say. Zach Cohen on the US Open. I got my US Open pre-flops, uh, that I'm gonna, uh, talk about here momentarily.
1:07
Uh, Chris Felica on college football week zero and beyond, whatever else he's betting. And, uh, Kelly and I are gonna do top overrated and underrated NFL teams today based on season win total, correct?
1:22
So these are the, we're gonna each pick three teams- Yeah... that we feel based on season win total are over- are overrated, three that are underrated. That doesn't mean that we necessarily have a bet on all of them.
1:32
Mm-hmm. But that was the task, come up with three on each side. And so- That's why I wanted to do it to extend it beyond just what we had bet. Yes. Right?
1:41
So what other teams do we think could potentially exceed or fall short of their win total the most? Yeah. And now, ladies and gentlemen, the matter at hand. Um, yeah.
1:51
Two years ago, um, I casually mentioned on air that, here on the Numbers Game, we were at the South Point at the time, and I mentioned, "Oh, my God, I had some great sushi last night.
2:00
It was the best sushi I've ever had." And, uh, Kelly said, "What's the name of the place?" And I said, "Oh, I'm, I'm not telling you." Where'd you go? [laughs] I'm not telling you. I wanna keep it for myself.
2:11
It's called gatekeeping. The kids call that gatekeeping. And Kelly could not believe. By the way, I didn't tell him off air. I, my, my dear friend Kelly, I didn't tell him. I didn't tell anybody.
2:20
Um, and so it became a thing, and for two years now we've had nothing but tweets every day. Yep. At least a handful of tweets about- I, I-... what's the place.
2:29
I'd like to believe that I played it cool on air at first, but then we went to commercial break and I was like, "All right, man." You, you- Like, "Where did you," you know, "Where'd you go?" You were pissed, yes. Yeah.
2:36
"Tell, tell me now. It's just me and you." I wouldn't tell. I wouldn't tell. You wouldn't tell me. I didn't tell Crack. Crack couldn't believe I wouldn't tell. I wouldn't tell anybody.
2:41
[laughs] Um, so, uh, we were doing these monthly baseball bets. Now we're two years forward.
2:46
We're doing these monthly baseball bets, and a gentleman on Twitter, this was the last day of the Astros June bet that I had at 25 to 1 and 17 to 1, and they had to win, and the, and the O's had to lose at night, and the Astros were in this rain delay, and they, like, you know, there was no, there was a p- point in extra innings where they should have lost their game to, to the Mets, and somehow miraculously they won.
3:09
But at some point in there someone said, "Will you reveal the name of the sushi place if the Astros win this bet for you?" And I said, "Absolutely, I would." Um, and the Astros go on and they win June.
3:18
And when we came back, I said on air that Monday, I was like, uh, the next day, I was like, "Okay, we're gonna do this with one, one caveat, if the proprietors of the place do, do not want me to." Right? Mm-hmm.
3:29
And we've said this many times through the, through the, through the, uh, months and the, uh, the weeks since. No, you have been great about cautioning people with it. Uh- Yeah...
3:37
Crack and I thought you've been ridiculous the whole time. Yeah. That there is no way this restaurant wouldn't want the promotion.
3:44
Um, I hope you all aren't mad at me, but yesterday, uh, we went, and when I say we, I mean I, I, uh, I blindfolded Kelly, Matt Brown, and Mike Somish, the co-host of The Handle here weekends at, at VSIN, uh, threw them into the trunk Scooby-Doo style.
3:59
Um, Kelly's tough in the trunk with these guys. [laughs] Uh, they don't know where we went, and we went to the place, and I explained all of this to them, right? They didn't know.
4:10
I was just the quiet guy there with, with a couple other, a couple of my buddies. Right. Uh, one, one of my brother and a, and a, and a buddy there. I, I didn't really say much. And so I explained everything to them.
4:20
They did a little translation thing to the proprietors, and they requested respectfully that I do not give out the name of the place. And Kelly, and, and by the way, here's Matt Brown tweeting this morning.
4:32
Matt Brown, uh, we did not ask him to tweet this, by the way. He went ahead and then- Yeah. Well-... did so himself. "I, Matt Brown" [laughs] This is like an affidavit.
4:40
"I, Matt Brown, can certify the below to be truthful and accurate. Bullet points, sushi place does exist. Second, as good as advertised. Third, limited number of seats. Fourth, s-" uh, what does he say here?
4:54
"Speak, uh-" Spreading the word... "spreading, spreading the word was asked about, and the very gracious owners," and they were very gracious. They came over multiple times.
5:02
Uh, said they were at capacity, and they just would, would h- would respectfully ask that I, that I not do that. A- and I can, I can second or third this. Yeah.
5:13
It was, yeah, it's a, I, I don't know if I fully believed it was... I don't wanna say I didn't believe you, but, uh, it was the- You didn't believe me... you needed to see it first where it's like- Yeah...
5:23
"Oh, yeah, no, Gil is right. This is small. This is small." I mean, what were the, there, there's a sushi bar with, like, four seats and, what, four tables maybe? Yeah, something like that. Yeah. Something like that.
5:33
And, and, and you also did, you also, when something like this happens, the hype usually outweighs the result, and you would say? It was awesome. It was great. It was a- it, it was amazing. Yeah.
5:41
We had a, we had a great time. Yeah. Um, I mean, great people, great food, great times all around.
5:47
Uh- Gil and Mike Samich fell more deeply in love with each other's, uh, appreciation of quality sushi- Well, the, there was a-... while, uh, while Matt and I sat on the other side of the table- [laughs]...
5:55
and I feel like we got l- were looked down upon for our, our sushi roll orders. Well, Samich and I are Californians, and so there's a certain air and snobbishness to our sushi love. Oh, yeah.
6:05
Yeah, d- uh- And then you guys are the savages... I just lived there for five years too, but oh gosh, yes. The, the- That's right... judgment that was coming from that side of the table.
6:12
[laughs] They didn't even have to say anything. Thank God you were there, Samich. [laughs] Anyway, uh, I apologize.
6:18
I, I hope that I, you know, I, I said this caveat enough that you'll understand that this was always a possibility. This was supposed to be the, uh, sushi roll.
6:25
I'll, I'll reveal two and three later on the show, if that interests you. Number two and number three. There, yeah, there you go. There you go. Um, but I'm sorry Yeah, we had a ton last night, too. Oh.
6:32
Like, there was a, it was a ton. It, it, it- It's a feast... it, Gil, I, like it takes, usually takes a while, I think, for Gil to trust someone like this, but Mike was like, Mike just wanted to order some things.
6:43
He kind of looked over at Gil, and Gil's like, "I trust you. You're doing a great job. Just keep ordering away." Yeah. And just more and more stuff kept coming.
6:48
[laughs] I did the initial, and then he, yeah, I was like, "You wanna, you wanna have a s- stab at it?" Yeah, yeah. He went, he went out. So anyway. I, I had prepared such a, like, it, it...
6:55
I feel so bad from a production standpoint for the fans of the show, though, 'cause like I had prepared great videos on the outside. Yes, you did. I got pictures, all this stuff. But- I, I-...
7:05
the owners would prefer us not to share... again, I apologize, but out of respect to the owners. And, and there we do have a, we do have a subset of listeners that are thrilled by this, by the way.
7:14
We've had some, some listeners who are like, "Please don't give it out. It's a thing." So it will always remain the secret sushi spot. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And it was great, and it was definitely in a sp- Yeah...
7:23
a part of Vegas that I have never hit. Sorry. Like, never hit. [laughs] No, whatever. Ever.
7:28
[laughs] Um, okay, there's no artful segue to this, and we'll, we'll say this the next hour or two for those who missed this, but, uh, no artful segue to this.
7:36
But they did have the US Open draw, uh, United States Open tennis draw, uh, after the show, right after the show yesterday.
7:42
So Drew, Zach and I, Zach Cohen, Drew Dinsick from, uh, Whale Capper on Twitter, and of course, on the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast. Zach, who works at, you know, Zach does Tennis Channel podcasts, by the way.
7:54
Um, so, uh, and by the way, Zach will join us momentarily with his US Open thoughts. But we did the podcast. We waited actually a few minutes for the draws to come out.
8:01
Um, tennis, let me just say this, what I said on the podcast, tennis has the decency more than any other sport to, and they don't do this on purpose, I don't think, but it works out this way.
8:12
They confine the Slam season. There, there is tennis after the US Open. It's indoor hard courts, and there's a WTA and an ATP final. But the Slam season is, "Okay, we're in the NFL playoffs now.
8:23
We'll have an Australian Open, and we'll begin the Slam season of tennis. Oh, wait a minute. The football season's about to start?
8:28
Okay, we'll time it so that the, uh, men's final is the first Sunday of the NFL season, and then have it, have at it, football." So this is also the beauty of tennis. So I made a couple bets about, uh, a week ago.
8:41
You could actually get a better number on Iga Swiatek to win the ladies' side. I got plus 320. You can get her like plus 375, plus 340. I mean, shop around. You'll get a better number than I will.
8:51
Uh, her hard court numbers are still better than anybody else's by margin. Hate to say it, but they are. Um, and I do have an Iga Carlitos parlay at plus 950 as well.
9:03
Uh, those are the ones that were, you know, sort of done before yesterday. Now, yesterday the draw came out. I don't have anything on the men's side. Um, I think it's top-heavy.
9:13
I think it's largely one of these situations in men's tennis where the favorites are the favorites, and, um, you know, Zach has a play on the men's side, which, which he'll get to, and I kind of endorsed it.
9:24
But I didn't, I didn't ultimately pull the trigger. Where I did, when I ran the numbers, is in women's Q2 and women's Q3. So not the Iga quarter, not the Aryna Sabalenka quarter, but the ones in between.
9:37
So Q2, which would essentially for our purposes be called the Elena Rybakina quarter, and Elena Rybakina just fired her coach, and she hasn't been practicing. She's been a mess all season. Uh, I'm not backing her.
9:51
But we ran the numbers, Karolína Muchová ended up being a bet for me at 10 to 1.
9:56
Karolína Muchová, who was a French Open finalist a couple years back, but 10 to 1 was a play, and to sprinkle a little some on Anna Kalinskaya at 21 to 1.
10:04
So Karolína Muchová at 10 to 1, Anna Kalinskaya at 21 to 1 were a couple bets on, uh, the women's side in Q2. By the way, the, the numbers also showed some value on Yulia Putintseva at 25 to 1, but I did not bet that.
10:22
Ultimately, I just wanted to confine it to those two. Who's top of that quarter? Like, who's the- Elena Rybakina. Oh, Rybakina. Yeah.
10:28
Q3, which is, you know, de facto, uh, we'll call it the Coco Gauff quarter, and Coco, as we've documented on this show, she's just having all kinds of problems with her forehand.
10:35
But she is the defending champion- Mm-hmm... it should be noted. Uh, the play was on Paula Badosa. Uh, Paula Badosa's numbers are just as good as Coco's, and in fact, six-month numbers are even better than Coco's.
10:48
Uh, took her at plus 550, the, uh, the lovely and talented Paula Badosa from Spain at plus 550 in Q3. There was value also shown in that quarter per the numbers on Vika Azarenka at 20 to 1, but I did not play that.
11:03
I did not play that. So I c- I confined it to those three bets, two in women's Q2, Muchová and Kalinskaya, and then one on Q3, which is Badosa. Zach has plays on the men's side, though, as well. He's coming up with some.
11:14
So he's got a quarter play that, uh, you may find interesting as well. So the US Open, which is just a spectacular, uh, two weeks of tennis, begins on Monday.
11:24
So by the time we're here Monday morning, it will have already started East Coast time. So I want to get those in, and we'll get them from Zach in a bit. Paul Carr is standing by, however.
11:34
Three and O, opening week Premier League. He's the dude that just moves the chains every year in, uh, soccer betting, as we documented last week. We see if he can move them some more forward on the other side.
11:44
It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
11:47
[upbeat music]Numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on the Numbers Game, live at Bar Canada of the Deep. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
12:05
Uh, the natives are taking it okay, by and large. Generally speaking. [laughs] So- some angry, some angrier than others.
12:15
Uh, by the way, if you missed episode one of Circus Survivor, uh, the Quest for $9.2 million, you gotta check it out.
12:21
Uh, you can watch it now at vsin.com, five-part docuseries taking you inside the high stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest, as you follow the contestants, they make all or nothing picks, as you know, all year long over the 2023 NFL season.
12:35
Uh, going behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest. Several recent hosts, by the way, make appearances along the way to offer their advice. A whole bunch is stormy in episode one. She's fantastic.
12:44
And you can watch episodes two through five next week, Monday through Thursday, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, on vsin.com and YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X.
12:53
Go to vsin.com/survivor, uh, to check out episode one, if you haven't seen that as well, and all the details on episodes two through five. Was that your we're ready to go, uh, signal? Oh, it was not. Oh, can...
13:06
We talked about the end of the yesterday's show. So Crack does the second hour of the show on Thursdays, as everybody knows.
13:11
And at the very end of the show, um, we got word, not we got word, but the, the word came down that the, uh, that the Washington Commanders had, uh, traded Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia Eagles, and we talked about the terms of the trade, some draft picks go back and forth.
13:26
But it was...
13:27
I was sort of, you know, as a lifelong Skins fan, I was, I was sort of perplexed that Washington would so readily deal Dotson, who they drafted in the first round just a couple years back, that they would so readily deal him to a, first of all, to a team inside their division.
13:44
That's one. This close to the beginning of the season, that's two.
13:49
And then three, just based on their depth charts, uh, you're okay with the Ami Brown now being your number two across from the, the incomparable Terry McClure. You know, very interesting.
13:57
And so I was perplexed, and talked about that on air briefly before we went off air.
14:01
And then this morning, we have a report from Pro Football Talk, a potential Brandon Aiyuk trade [laughs] from the Niners to the Commanders reportedly back in play. This Brandon Aiyuk trade saga has been interminable.
14:15
For a guy, by the way, great player, don't get me wrong, but not the single greatest wide receiver of all time. Let's not get crazy either.
14:24
But the, the amount of, of twists and turns of this Brandon Aiyuk thing has been unbelievable because I was, I was ready to just concede he's gonna stay a Niner. He never wanted to leave in the first place.
14:32
They probably never wanted him to go. Now this possibly. I ju- I just feel, I mean, it feels like this happened more and more every year, but specifically this year.
14:40
Just, just the fact that teams are even willing to have conversations about stuff like this this close to the season starting. Very odd.
14:47
I mean, Jahan Dotson, you're talking about a starting wide receiver for the Commanders. And, you know, on the Eagles side, it's adding another weapon to now probably the strongest wide receiving core in the league.
14:57
Wide receiver three, he will be. Yeah. Yeah. Behind, uh, Devante and A.J. Brown. So good for the Eagles. Um, we'll see what happens with Aiyuk. Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:07
You can follow him on Twitter, @paulcarr, C-A-R-R. 3-0, week one. What could go wrong? What's happening, Paulie? I mean, I tried to quit, but- [laughs]... you guys pulled me back in. So here I am.
15:20
[laughs] Hey, before we g- before we get to your picks, though, can you dis- can you talk about this Man City thing a little bit?
15:28
[laughs] Uh, because they're kind of, kind of two different markets going in opposite directions pretty high up on the board. Explain. Yeah. So they are, you know, the title favorite, as expected.
15:39
Nothing strange there, you know, around even money, give or take. Uh, but if you look at the relegation odds, they are 10th-ish, give or take, plus 800 to be relegated.
15:50
And this has been bet down by about half over the last week or so. They were plus 1500, you know, more or less, varied a little bit across the books, but in the plus 13, plus 16, plus 1800 range, uh, a week or two ago.
16:02
And the reason for this is completely not on the field related, because City is the best team in the league, or second best, depending on how you feel about Arsenal.
16:12
But this specter of point deductions has been hanging over City for a year and a half. They were charged with 115 breaches of the Premier League's, basically their financial rules. [laughs] 115. Yeah. Yes. Just 115.
16:25
At 112 were they like- Wow... "Oh, it's still okay." Right. Yeah, once you get over 112- Yeah... I mean, come on. Yeah. It's serious.
16:32
So, and there've been some leaks that people are saying, oh, they might get, you know, kicked out of the league or deducted, whatever, 60 points or something ridiculous that would be a de facto relegation.
16:43
I have no idea. I mean, I, I don't have inside information or anything. I have a hard time believing the Premier League would do that to a champion or a, a really good team, a title contender.
16:53
They, they deducted points from Everton in, uh, last year, but, you know, Everton was not a threat for the title. And so they've done it before, but it's usually like middle of the pack or lower half teams, so.
17:03
But it's fun to, it's fun to just look at the odds. Plus 800 to be relegated, plus 120 or something to win the title. I mean- It's weird...
17:10
I always go, when I, when I hear something like this, I always go to, "Okay, what's the American equivalent of this?" Yeah. All right? This is like if the San Francisco 49ers, right? You gotta pick- Right...
17:20
a contender, right? One of the top two or three. The San Francisco 49ers committed [laughs] 115 off the field salary cap violations or something, right? Yeah.
17:30
And then the season was permitted to begin with the Niners playing. Right. And then, oh, I don't know, four or five weeks in, they're like, "I'm sorry, you guys. You're done. You can't play."
17:39
Yeah, we're taking your wins away. Yeah. It's, it's, regardless of how you feel about what has or hasn't happened, like, the way the league has handled it is terrible. Like, you can't be deducting points mid-season.
17:49
Um, I mean, can you imagine if, like, college basketball, for example, if KU The middle of the season they're like, "Yeah, we're, we're taking away all your wins.
17:57
You're not going to the tournament, and you're in the Sun Belt next year." Yeah. So good luck with that. That's right. At least we have the decency- [laughs] In the Sun Belt...
18:02
in this country to retroactively- That's right... 15, 20 years later take away- Right... your titles. That's right. Yeah, we're s- Right. We may take a decade- That's, that's right...
18:10
but we'll get it right and punish kids who were barely alive at the time. Yeah, we're so much smarter, huh? Yeah, the c- Yeah...
18:14
the, the college basketball example is, is that the cl- that's probably the closest equivalent to some, you know, a college program of some kind. 'Cause there's somewhere to go down to.
18:22
Right, 'cause there's somewhere to go down. Yeah. But it doesn't, it doesn't factor in the name value. I guess that's the s- Right...
18:28
that's the part, Paul, where I'm like, is something really like this gonna happen to Man City? Like, this is... It would be like- I don't know... the Dallas Cowboys being punished, right? Yeah. Yeah. People freak out.
18:36
I'd be surprised.
18:37
I mean, you hear people, people say in college sports a lot where, you know, KU gets away with something, but Oklahoma State gets slammed for something similar, which, you know, there's always a kernel of truth to it, and I, I think there's something to it here, but yeah, who knows?
18:50
The Premier League's just handling it terribly. All right, Paulie, 3-0 to start the Premier League season. Um, uh, no pressure. Just trying to keep the undefeated season alive. What do you got?
18:58
Yeah, don't, don't screw it up. Well. All right.
18:59
We're, we're gonna start with if, you know, anyone who's listened to me for the last couple years can almost predict this one, but I'm taking Brighton to win at home against Manchester United.
19:07
Brighton is my favorite mid-major, I guess you'd call it, and Manchester United's been one of the top teams from a brand perspective that I like to bet against, because they've been pretty terrible relatively the last couple years.
19:18
So I'm just taking Brighton to win at home against United at plus 150. Brighton rolled Everton in the first game, helped out a little by an Everton red card. Manchester United looked pretty good.
19:28
They had to get a late goal to beat Fulham. But I think that was more about Fulham just not being that good. I think they'll be in kind of the relegation scrap this year. Brighton's at home. It's their opener.
19:38
They've got a better midfield than United does with a lot of kids. They're always bringing kids through that you're like, "Where'd this guy come from?" Then they're selling him for $50 million to somebody else.
19:46
[laughs] Um, it's like the, uh, remember the Broncos would just plug running backs in- Oh, yeah... about 20 years ago. Oh, yeah. Here, here's Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell and- [laughs]...
19:54
Ruben Drones and all these guys that are just- Ruben Drones-... coming through... won, won me a fantasy league. Yeah, exactly. I s- I was like, "Who was the guy?" And then you s- you said his name. Ruben Drones, yeah.
20:03
Yeah, so Brighton's kind of like that in the midfield. They just bring these kids in and they're great. So I'll take Brighton to win this one. All right. Brighton wins.
20:09
Uh, wouldn't be official, uh, Paul Carr three-pack without a, a total or two. What do you got with totals? Yeah. Got a couple to- totals here. I'll start with Southampton, Nottingham Forest, over two and a half.
20:19
I searched it minus 115 last night. I saw it at minus 105 this morning. So you can get a better price on this.
20:25
Uh, Southampton lost 1-0 to Newcastle, but that was just a weird game where Newcastle got an early, uh, red card, and you can pretty much throw that game out from a what did we learn perspective.
20:35
But Southampton's defense wasn't that good in the championship last season. They'll probably have more of the ball in this game, but that plays into Forest's hands.
20:42
They like to counterattack through Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi, et cetera. And this is a game both teams will think they can win. You know, these are two teams expected to be fighting for, to avoid relegation.
20:52
So I think this will be a pretty open game. So over two and a half, minus 115, or you can find a better price out there now. All right. And, and another over two and a half in another game.
21:01
Crystal Palace, West Ham over two and a half at minus 130. Uh, West Ham the last few years has been very conservative under manager David Moyes. Not so much in the opener.
21:11
Their new manager, Julian Lopetegui, had them playing wide open. Made the most entertaining game of last weekend, 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. Four and a half expected goals total over two each. So West Ham's got attackers.
21:22
Pal- Palace still has a couple pretty good ones, even though they lost their best guy, Michael Olise, to Bayern Munich. So I think this one should be open, too. Over two and a half, minus 130. All right, Paul.
21:32
Uh, Paul's picks once again, Brighton plus 150 to beat Man U. Shop around for the prices.
21:37
And the over two and a half in both the Southampton, uh, the Southampton, Nottingham Forest game and the Crystal Palace, West Ham match as well.
21:44
Uh, Crystal Palace, West Ham, a little more juice than the previous, but always shop around. Again, last 30 seconds, you are a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan. Yeah. What is your expectation, sir?
21:55
I'm kind of weirdly optimistic. I, I almost feel bad saying this. Makes me nervous. But I feel like the Bills are kind of a mess in the division. A lot of injuries.
22:03
The Patriots we know are terrible, and I don't believe in Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. So I'm, like, if the Dolphins don't win the division this year, I'm gonna be pretty disappointed, even though- Wow...
22:11
a lot of their defense isn't, uh, or isn't back, 'cause they let them go. But the offense from a skill position is still there intact.
22:18
Uh, offensive line questions, but I don't feel like anyone else in that division scares me right now. I, I share your feeling on the Bills. It should be interesting.
22:24
Obviously a, uh, one of those four teams, not like the other, the Patriots, but it will be fascinating between the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins. Um, and I love this about, you know, about Mike McDaniel, too.
22:36
Um, is Mike McDaniel the coach of the, uh... Yes, Mike McDaniel. Yep. Um, 'cause you always get those names mixed up. I love him as a coach. Love him. Sure.
22:43
But I wonder if things go bad if the way he is comes back to haunt him. Thank you, Paul. Yeah. Appreciate it. Zach- At some point that'll happen... Zach Cohen next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Back on a numbers game. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Fidlin. Uh, cavalcade of tweets begins. Uh, we get tweets @bettingthebooks. Zach Cohen standing by. Uh, let's see here. Boop-a-doop-a-doop-a-doo.
23:06
What do we got on tweets? Joe C, uh, "Sushi spot. Oh, no, I can also confirm. Very limited seating, very reasonably priced, very good sushi coming from someone that lives in SoCal. #anumbersgame."
23:18
Joe was the, uh, we had to s- we had to send Joe out on a, uh, on a recon mission, uh, earlier, so he's, he knows as well. Teasers and players. Uh, "Late line movement," the sushi loc- He says this right before the show.
23:30
He goes, "Late line movement after the Matt Brown tweet. The sushi location will not be disclosed out of respect to the owners. In lieu of this, let's have the eggnog challenge." Nope, never again. Bring it back.
23:39
Never again. It's an old Primetime Action gag. I don't regret doing it necessarily, but I haven't had a sip of eggnog since, so I don't know that I will for the rest of my life. Uh, this is from Gills Guy.
23:51
Says, "This is absolutely ridiculous. I don't know how I can trust Gilly with anything anymore. Wow, I'm devastated. This might be the end of a numbers game as we know it." I like gills guys, by the way.
24:01
Uh, this one is from, let's see, what's the next one here? Let's read a couple more. Uh, Rick Ollier, "Uh, no sushi? This is an outrage. I'm gonna head downstairs to McDonald's to eat my feelings.
24:10
At least I know that Mickey D's of the D will always be there and never let me down." [laughs] Okay. Mickey D's is gone on Sunday. Yeah. That's right, I've had my last hash browns at this McDonald's.
24:22
And, uh, we'll read one more here, and then we'll move on. Logic3227, "Gotta keep the sushi spot as a running theme.
24:27
You should pick a date, and every year on that date ask them if they've changed their minds and will let you reveal it." That's a great idea. Yeah, that's a good idea. I'll do that. That is a good idea. I'll do that.
24:36
We'll make it, uh, National Sushi Day. Oh, one, one more, one more here. HoopsByHoots, "Uh, ANG now stands for Angry Nigiri-less Gamblers." [laughs] Hashtag. Come on, man. Sorry, I just gotta respect him.
24:48
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is, uh, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter at bettingonx. He also does podcast for the, uh, Tennis Channel as well.
24:57
It's the great Zach Cohen, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, Zach? Not much. How you guys doing? Doing very well, man. Doing very well. Um, okay.
25:06
Thank you, by the way, for doing the podcast yesterday, the Beating the Book, m- uh, Tennis podcast, the US Open preview. Uh, you gave out some stuff on there.
25:14
Do you wanna give out something on the podcast or something beyond the podcast? Yeah, I mean, I gave out Alexander Zverev to win the tournament at 12 to one. I think you could still get that at 11 to one.
25:24
I, I, I would still take it. He has probably one of the tougher draws of the top players, but I just kind of trust him on a hard court because of that serve. I also think he's in really good physical condition.
25:34
Also, like quietly, nobody has won more matches than Alexander Zverev in 2024. I know that obviously Grand Slam success has kind of eluded him at this point in his career. He has not won a major yet.
25:44
But I do think it's going to come.
25:46
You know, if he gives himself enough bites of the apple, I think that it's going to happen, and I do think that he has a really good opportunity to do it here, you know, not being on the Alcaraz and Sinner side of the bracket.
25:54
So that was the one that I gave out. I also gave out Jessica Pegula on the women's side.
25:58
But one that I ended up adding after was, uh, Yuri Leheska, 25 to one to win quarter four, which is the Novak Djokovic c- uh, portion of the bracket. Wow. Obviously going to be a, a really tall order for him to do that.
26:10
But at the same time, like he was playing as well as anyone early in the 2024 season. He suffered an injury in Madrid, but he came back, looked pretty good in Cincinnati.
26:18
Uh, he lost to Frances Tiafoe there, but that was a match that I really thought he should've won. I think he choked it away because the crowd was really, uh, in Tiafoe's favor.
26:26
It was a, you know, a grueling physical match. I think that if he were not playing Tiafoe with that crowd, he probably wins that match. Uh, at the same time, like, uh, you know, he has...
26:34
He's a powerful, powerful player with a big serve.
26:36
I think that these conditions in New York do suit him pretty well, and I also like his draw up until the part of the tournament where he would play Djokovic, would, which would be in the quarterfinals.
26:44
So I like his chances against the Rublev, against the Dimitrov. I just think that's a way too big of a number for a player that was playing so well early in the year. Who's your hunch on the lady side?
26:53
Just, uh, if I said, "Who's winning it?" Your response would be? I really think, I, I really think Pegula's gonna win. Not, not even just at the number. I, I think she's gonna win the tournament.
27:01
I think that she is playing just as well as anyone right now. Uh, we saw her win in Toronto. We saw her nearly beat Sabalenka in, uh, Cincinnati.
27:09
I think that she was fatigued by the time that came around because she had played so much tennis in the two weeks prior, and played a lot of physical matches in the two weeks prior. But I think she's playing really well.
27:18
She's serving well. That was kind of her big thing, you know, at the beginning of the year. She took some time off to really work on that serve. She changed her team.
27:25
And I also just like her, you know, baseline game with her, you know, flat strokes on the baseline, her ability to defend.
27:31
I just think that, yeah, I think she has got as good of a shot as anyone, so the fact that you can get it at 12 to one is really enticing. Kelly, did you wanna chime in on anything on that?
27:38
I'm just glad to hear Zach's backing her because, you know, we sh- she, she needs every, every penny she can get. Now a win would be big for her future here. So yeah. Oh, nice. Thank you. Just always worried about her.
27:48
Thanks for the chime in. I know you're always very concerned about her. [laughs] Uh, and her $7.5 billion fortune.
27:54
Um, our- Navarro's playing in Monterrey right now, so she needed to, she needed to play a tournament bad too. Oh, we're working- Chump change, Zach. [laughs] Yeah, one point, 1.5 billion. It's nothing.
28:02
Um, yeah, I'm watching that right now. I couldn't beli- I was like, "Is this live?" It is live, yeah. Um, okay. College football, you added some season longs. Yeah, so I had what I put in the guide.
28:14
I have a bunch of futures in the guide, so if you still have not downloaded that, there's a lot in there that you are going to see.
28:19
I believe we have, like, 50-plus best bets from all of our VSim hosts and analysts, so still plenty of reasons to download that.
28:25
But I added five plays on the website, uh, with the one that I'm probably most excited about being SMU over eight and a half wins at plus 120 odds.
28:33
I think that, you know, I saw a lot of people are really high on SMU, especially people that, you know, we work with. But I'm starting to drink that Kool-Aid now too.
28:40
I just think it's a team that returns most of the talent from last year. I think that there's going to be 15 players with starting experience back from last year's team.
28:47
It was a team that was 14th in the nation in EPA per play on offense, eighth in the nation in EPA per play allowed on defense.
28:54
And I just don't really think that the jump up from the AAC to the ACC is as big as people think, especially with their schedule.
29:01
I just think that, you know, they're gonna be playing, their toughest game will be at home against Florida State. They play a road game against Louisville.
29:07
Those are really the only two games that when you look at their schedule that you could really see them losing, and they would have to lose four games for this play not to hit.
29:14
So I just kind of look through these schedules and look for, you know, losable m- games, and I just don't really see it with SMU. I definitely don't see three.
29:22
So the fact that it's available, you know, at over eight and a half at plus money, I think that's a gift. Uh, I really, really like this team heading into the season.
29:28
I think, uh, they have a really good quarterback, good coaching, and just, yeah, loaded on both sides of the ball. Yeah. You are right, though.
29:34
The, uh, again, Texas under is sort of the most consensus play I think we've heard this off-season. But there is a lot of love for SMU, right? There, there is definitely some- Yep... uh, some consensus to that as well.
29:44
Any, any else, uh, anything else from college football? Um, I, I added Alabama to make the playoff at plus 100. I gave out in the guide Alabama to win the national championship, which is a bit more of a long shot.
29:56
It was play on a number just because, you know, when Saban was supposed to coach that team, it was only like plus 650, plus 700. Now it's all the way at, you know, plus 1400, plus 1500.
30:05
So I don't think that the drop-off from Saban to DeBoer was worthy of that big of a drop-off in the odds. I think DeBoer is an unbelievable coach, but, you know, that still was a longer shot.
30:13
I wanted to have a little skin on Alabama on something a little more realistic.
30:16
So I went with them to make the playoff because I do think that if they win nine, 10 games, and they do fall short of winning 11, which is what I think they're gonna win, they'll still make the playoffs 'cause I think we're gonna see the SEC get three, four teams in, and that might be a conservative guess, honestly.
30:30
What do you think? I mean, obviously this is the first year of the 12-team playoff. We've all been... I, I don't want to say all, 'cause some, some never wanted to see this, but most folks wanted to see this happen.
30:39
And from a, from a betting standpoint, right, from a handle standpoint, it is going to be spectacular. It's more games for us to bet on. It's awesome.
30:46
Um, however, do you anticipate that that first group of games, uh, so, so some teams will get the buy, right?
30:54
But then the, that first group of games is just gonna be a collection of lopsided, you know, 20-point spreads, and it's actually from a, from just a fan standpoint, is actually gonna land with a thud? I don't think so.
31:08
I, I think that there's a lot of really good teams in college football this year. I think that there's more parity than people might expect, so I think we're gonna see some really good first-round match-ups.
31:16
I also think, you know, those games are gonna be played on the campuses- Yeah... which is going to give the... Yeah, that's going to be awesome.
31:21
Uh, selfishly, as a Wisconsin fan, 12 teams is the only way I'll ever see my team in there, so that's, [laughs] that's something that's good.
31:27
Uh, but yeah, I think it's going to be mostly good for the sport, and I think that, like, there were some teams, you know, we've seen in previous years that could have beaten some of the powerhouses or, you know, the, the perceived powerhouses.
31:37
So I think we're finally gonna get those teams, you know, getting a shot is a good thing.
31:41
That in and of itself will be interesting to see how that goes that time of year on college campuses with students being out, and it'll be very interesting to see how that goes just from a, uh, spectator standpoint.
31:51
Yeah. Zach, thank you as always. Appreciate it. No problem. Zach Cohen. By the way, check out the, uh, tennis podcast if you wanna know, uh, all the bets for the US Open.
31:59
Drew Dinsick, Zach Cohen, and myself again at the Beating the Book Tennis US Open preview, which is out now.
32:06
And about the, uh, College Football Betting Guide, if you haven't had the time to handicap the start of the college football season, lucky for you that this guide is out, uh, and it has been out, packed with everything you need to dominate, from in-depth previews of all 134 teams to a preseason top 25, power ratings, proven betting systems, and more.
32:22
The guide is your ultimate resource for college football. But that is not all.
32:26
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33:01
Matt Humans, Zach, um, Adam Burke, they always do a spectacular job with not only the guides this year, but every single year in every single sport that they do. Yeah. Um, you're part of the NBA guide- Mm-hmm...
33:13
I believe as well. So, um, just great stuff. Yeah, we got an updated NFL one coming out soon too. Yeah. We had to all punch in more plays for that, so yeah, a lot, lot of stuff will be coming out here.
33:23
Uh, we will go into the NFL bag next. Three underrated, three overrated based on season win totals. Kelly would not... Uh, Kelly and I will take a stab at that. That's on the other side, and more of your sushi tweets.
33:35
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada at the Danske Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. By the way, I, uh, neglected to give out my, uh, two tennis picks yesterday on the show.
34:01
Um, they ended up splitting minuscule, very minute, uh, gain. Uh, both were dogs. I have two today. Um, one is, I don't know if the price is, is as good as it was last night. Again, vsin.com/picks.
34:17
Every host, every guest, every sport that there's a bet in for subscribers at vsin.com/picks. Uh, I am on the, on the ladies' side for the second straight day. I am on McCartney Kessler. Uh, McCartney Kessler.
34:29
There's a country club name for you, uh, Kelly. McCartney Kessler. Yeah, I've struggled with this one the past couple days. Uh, plus [laughs] it's like- Like, it's like Ricky Bobby with two first names.
34:38
[laughs] You got, you got two last names. Uh, she's ac- oh, she was actually at a worse price this morning. Now she's at a better price than, than I had her. I got her plus 143 last night against Anastasia Potapova.
34:47
She's plus 150-ish right now, so you get a better price on Kessler. And then, uh, Paulo Carreño Busta is on the, uh, on the men's side. This is in Winston-Salem. He's a little worse.
34:59
He's minus 115 than the minus 109 that I got him at against Alex Michelsen. That is still playable at that price. So Kessler and Bust- Carreño Busta are the two plays. These are probably the last ones before the US Open.
35:12
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Real quick, let's run through a few of these. Um, I wonder what these will be about, um, sushi-wise or otherwise. Uh, this will be from Buddhist Man. Oh, we love Buddhist.
35:24
I love the use of, "There's no artful segue to this," but as if, [laughs] as if not releasing Secret Sushi's location is comparable to an untimely death or the latest Wander Franco news. Yes, I know. That's true.
35:36
Uh, this is from... We gotta throw these.
35:38
Steve The Proxy, "The day Gil and Kelly are called into, uh, Bill Adey's office and told, 'Guys, ANG is so good, we're finally moving you to Circa,' Gil responds, 'No thanks, we prefer Bob Seger, cigarettes, and coffee.
35:49
Coffee stain tables.' That's the equivalent of this shameful sushi news." Uh, this is from Jamie Leyva, who says, "Sushi snobs eating with, uh, Matt Brown and Kelly Bidlin, the sushis- the sushi savages. I'm crying.
36:02
Have a great day, gentlemen." Uh, [laughs] Bosh in Chicago, uh, "Penalizing Man City in the NF- in, in NFL terms would be like- Uh, the Chiefs being penalized.
36:13
Both have dominated their respective leagues and are the ones everyone is trying to knock off the mountaintop. Man City should be stripped of their titles and relegated. Bosh is very adamant about that.
36:24
Um, all right, we'll get some more coming up. Uh, three overrated, three underrated National Football League teams. These are based on season win totals. This does not necessarily mean we have a bet.
36:33
We'll stipulate where we do and where we don't. Um, my overrated, Kelly, I will, I will start with that. I do have bets on the Pittsburgh Steelers, of course, to the under.
36:42
Pittsburgh Steelers season win total is at eight and a half. I've got them under eight. I've got them under seven and a half.
36:48
We have stated reasons ad nauseam as to why this is, beginning with their unbelievably ridiculous schedule.
36:54
But we piled on even more with it, uh, earlier in the week with the Bill Barnwell stuff about how, you know, the, what their record was in one-score games, not only last year, but the last three years, quite frankly.
37:04
Uh, how they played multiple backup quarterbacks last year. How they had unbelievable, uh, turnover luck as well.
37:13
So, um, the Steelers' superpower is just in, in those respects, there's a lot of unsustainability to all that. So I believe eight and a half. Clearly I backed it up with bets.
37:22
Eight and a half is, makes them the most overrated, uh, based on season win totals. I got the Giants overrated at six and a half, Kelly, as well. Um,
37:31
the New York football Giants, and again, I can't recommend the Hard Knocks, the preseason Hard Knocks, or are they called the offseason Hard Knocks, I guess- Mm... uh, enough on the New York Giants.
37:41
Uh, they managed to survive on offense last year by recovering an unsustainably high percentage of their fumbles. Uh, they fumbled 24 times. They recovered 17 of them.
37:51
So there was a lot of smoke and mirrors to what they did last year. Again, the naked eye watching these games doesn't pick up on this, but analytics sees all.
37:58
Remember the year before when Brian Daboll got the Coach of the Year, I didn't think he deserved it.
38:02
Uh, for as great a Nex to those guys he is, they just performed really well inside the 20s, both on offense and defense, to a point that didn't e- you know, in, in a way that didn't exist inside the 20s.
38:14
That's not sustainable from year to year. Uh, it all begins with Daniel Jones, and that contract is a, is just absolutely an albatross for them. Um, they lose Saquon Barkley. They lose Xavier McKinney on defense.
38:26
They have improved the defense with Brian Burns to add him to, uh, to a defensive core that has Dexter Lawrence. So they do have players on defense, obviously.
38:34
Uh, Kayvon Thibodeaux there as well, but I just don't think the Giants are very good. And Daniel Jones, I mean, come on. This has been a disaster for the Giants, and it, it hurts them in terms of losing personnel.
38:44
I think any success they've had, as we've just documented, has been a lot of luck factor in there. Uh-uh, six and a half, too high for me. And then the Bills, nine and a half is too high.
38:54
Listen, I love Josh Allen, but I've talked about it. Losing Stefon Diggs may not seem like a big deal, but at least he spread the field. Their answer to that was Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
39:03
Um, all the other guys, I don't know that they spread the field and allow for the Knoxes, right, the, the tight ends of the world, the, uh, the Dalton Kincaid's that, that Josh Allen has so relied on through the years.
39:13
We'll see if that is still available to Josh Allen in the way that it has been. Um, so I, I just think Buffalo is, is...
39:21
And, and the Buffalo schedule, by the way, not quite as hard as Pittsburgh, but really hard as well. Yeah, it's not easy.
39:27
Those three to me, Pittsburgh, the Giants, Buffalo, those are the three most overrated season win totals. And to your point on, uh- Overrated teams based on the season win total...
39:36
MBS, like, you know, he, what, he's hurt. They think he's gonna be back- Yeah... for week one, but, like, that's kind of up in the air here still, so. And he wasn't scaring anybody anyway. Right. Yeah. So, right.
39:45
And like if we're still talking about M- Marquez Val- Valdes-Scantling [laughs] Scantling, it's like, like we were talking about during the break, like everything we wanna talk about with Brandon Aiyuk, he's good.
39:54
He's a really good wide receiver. Yeah. But this isn't like the Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb-like conversation. That's right. I, I don't think it's exactly the same. So, um, you want me- Yeah... I'll hit my, uh, overrated?
40:04
Yes, sir. We did show, we did share two of the same, no surprise there, 'cause I think we both have bets. Uh, or no, do, do you have bets on Giants? I do not. Okay. So I, so I- Not to this moment, I do not. Okay. Yeah.
40:13
So I do. I did, uh, and I kinda went four here. I th- I think I said three each, but I was like, you know what?
40:18
Three of these I have bets on, and there's a fourth team that I feel like for about five weeks now I've been like, "Okay, when am I gonna make this bet? When am I gonna make this bet? When am I gonna make this bet?"
40:27
So Steelers, Giants we share. Um, I, I have under bets on both of them, and I think that this is, you know, especially when we're talking about this exercise, right?
40:36
And it's the, okay, how much are you gonna e- you know, exceed your win t- total by or fall short by? It's probably these teams that are kind of in the mid-range here that are, [laughs] have the best chance, right?
40:45
To, to really g- fall short by a lot. Um, I think the Steelers could. I expect the Giants to. I bet the alt under on them five and a half. Uh, the Bears, that number, I, like my bet on the Bears,
40:57
somehow they, the over just keeps getting bet on them. Like, I was che- looking at that yesterday. Um, the under, 'cause it, I mean, it's up nine to nine and a half at least at DraftKings now.
41:07
Interesting comments, so as it related to USC about Caleb Williams anyway from Bob yesterday. Yeah. You know? Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
41:13
Um, so the, I, look, I think this is, I, this is nothing, th- this is not a knock against the Bears. I think there's no shame in being an eight-win team with a rookie quarterback- Nope...
41:23
in a very tough division, and that's kind of where I think- Not at all... they're gonna be, like seven, eight wins.
41:28
And just nine and a half feels very lofty to me with Y- and yes, and I think Caleb Williams is gonna be good. Yes, I think they've made some great additions to this team.
41:36
Um, I just think we're all expecting this in year one when it might take a little bit. And that, that goes on to my next one with the Chargers.
41:43
Um, I mean, I think everybody who scored a touchdown for them in the past eight years roughly, uh, Gil, has been traded off of this team. So I'm really interested to see, uh, who steps, [laughs] who steps up for them.
41:53
Um, and I don't really know that I was thrilled at what we've seen out of Quentin Johnson and the likes, uh, you know, last year. Yeah. So this is another one.
42:00
I know we're all excited that Jim Harbaugh is there, and Justin Herbert's amazing, um, at quarterback, but I think it's gonna take a little bit of time for Harbaugh to kinda get this team up and running Now, where they benefit from is they're in an easier division, right?
42:16
And they may- Schedule's easy, yeah. Yeah, maybe they can pick on the Broncos and Raiders a bit. But, uh, you also make a good point about, like, uh, we bet some of these we have on the others.
42:23
Unlike, say, the US Open draw comes out yesterday, I gotta bet them real quick- Yeah... before the tournament starts.
42:27
We feel like we have all off-season to make them, so i- inevitably, we, we, we get around to some of these very late.
42:33
So there are a couple that, you know, again, this is how I feel, but I haven't made the bet yet on the Giants. You know what?
42:37
I'm glad Andrew just took that schedule, though, 'cause I'm gonna make a note right now, I'm not even gonna bet this preseason, because there's a chance they come out of the gates 3-0. That's correct.
42:45
Yeah, and then, and then I'll come in with the under. So that's the... Make notes on these schedules.
42:49
Most underrated based on season win totals, uh, I feel Washington with a new regime there, not only ownership, but obviously in the coaching staff all over the place.
42:58
Uh, and of course, the number two pick in the draft, Jayden Daniels. Uh, I feel like that six and a half is too low for them. Um, they have a wide variety of outcomes, a wide, uh, wide variance of outcomes.
43:11
I think that's too low generally. Seahawks, I've mentioned many times, seven and a half I think is too low. Mike McDonald, uh, his defensive philosophy will take hold as the season progresses.
43:19
I think that's too low on the Seahawks. And the Saints, at seven and a half, is really based on their schedule. Super easy schedule.
43:25
Obviously, got the six games within that division against the Bucs, the Panthers, um, and, uh, of course, the, uh, who am I forgetting, of course? Bucs and Falcons. Bucs, Panthers, Falcons. And in that division.
43:34
So it's largely schedule-based, but I think that's a little too low. Okay, I like it. Uh, we share one Seahawks.
43:40
Uh, that's a play on f- uh, bet, bet on me for them to make the playoffs, although it's kind of another one I'm like, "Why haven't we bet the over on the seven and a half?" [laughs] I kind of feel like we- Yeah...
43:48
me and you both should have. We will. And then I got a couple, I got a couple of re- I think the, I think the Texans, man, I think their ceiling is extremely high.
43:56
Maybe their floor's a little lower tha- tha- than where I think it's at, but man, nine and a half, I think they could soar over. And Cardinals, watch out, man.
44:03
I think Kyler Murray and that offense is gonna be humming along. If that defense can be, can be halfway decent, I think watch out for the Cardinals. Seahawks I've tackled two different ways.
44:12
One, I bet Mike McDonald to win. Right. Me too. Yep.
44:15
Coach of the Year, and I think the Seahawks will get there as the season progresses, so it, I can wait on the Seahawks, bet them mid-season on adjusted season win total over.
44:23
We'll come back, Chris Felica on college football, Week 0 and beyond. More college football bets from him. It's the Numbers Game at Beasley Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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