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Aug 23, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 23, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 23, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Midland.
0:17
Um, still to come this hour, uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke. Oh, what's Jason gonna say? It's flipped back to Paul Skeens after last night. [laughs] Jason,
0:28
uh, Paul Skeens, six scoreless yesterday, nine strikeouts against one walk, a two-hit performance, only two hits against, uh, the, uh, Pirates rookie in a seven to nothing Buccos win against the Reds.
0:42
By the way, our buddy Todd Wisniew had the, uh, the under four and a half first five yesterday. Under four and a half first five, was zero-zero with two out in the bottom of the fifth- Oh, no. [laughs]...
0:55
with a man on first. [laughs] That's brutal. Wisniew is the author of so many bad beats, and he, he always outdoes himself, and this one, he's like, "The worst of all, worst of all time." And he was at the game.
1:08
At the game. Uh, we get tweets that made me the book. Sam Ginsburg, "Uh, the owners of the sushi place weren't giving you the whole story.
1:13
The winner of the Circus Survivor Contest now gets 10 million or the name and location of the sushi place." Well, one of those things is more valuable than the other. Or... [laughs] I'm gonna let you decide.
1:24
Brandon Kyles, uh, "Putanceva's quarter price 32 to 1 on FanDuel. Worth a bet?" I did not bet it, but yes, based on my numbers, there is value to that. But I couldn't bet everybody in the, uh, in that particular quarter.
1:36
Uh, Kiss the Degenerate, "Ha, I f- I f- I freaking knew it. The only bad part is the sushi spot joke is no longer. Can't wait to hear the second and third spot."
1:44
Oh, yeah, I gotta do, remind me to do that later on the show. We'll do that. Um, and this is from Kevin, uh, "Your audience today," in Gil's mother's voice, "Uh, we're not mad, Gilly.
1:52
We're just, uh, we're just disappointed." That's what my mom would say. "Gilly, I'm very disappointed in you." Three Jack 3131, uh, three Jack H 3131, "Gil, who are the three quarter winners?
2:02
Bedosa, Kalinskaya, and Muchova." Well, they're not the three quarter winners. Uh, Bedosa is in, in a quarter by herself. Kalinskaya and Muchova are two picks in the same quarter.
2:12
Ryan Hyatt, "The world's greatest unknown sushi joint will and should remain a mystery. More a legend than a fact.
2:18
I would say every year at BetBash in Vegas, Gil should blindfold and take one numbers game listener to the Brigadoon of sushi. Kelly will, of course, always ride in the trunk." There you go. I made such a good video too.
2:30
Such a- [laughs] Oh, one more. Joe Bellicious, um, hashtag tiny good sushi restaurants in Las Vegas is trending across all social media platforms. Uh, d- definitely, of course, yeah. [laughs] It is.
2:39
No, there's no question it is. It's a hot hashtag right now. Uh, oh, and one more. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
2:42
Chris Felica, we're really patiently waiting by, "Bentley, I'm just gonna call every out of the way sushi joint pretending to be you and asking to confirm my reservation until someone says yes.
2:51
40 calls a day till it hits." Good luck to you. I like it. [laughs] Uh, Chris Felica, ladies and gentlemen. You may know him as the Bear. El Oso, for those listening in Spanish.
3:01
Uh, he has Bear Bets Podcast every which way. The Bear Bet p- uh, Bear Bets pod from Fox News, uh, from Fox News. From Fox Sports, pardon me. [laughs] Not from Fox News. [laughs] From Fox Sports.
3:11
Do, do, do you know something I don't? [laughs] It's Chris Felica, everybody, @chrisfelica on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. What's happening, man? Sorry about that. Oh, that, that, that's all right.
3:20
Not a heck of a lot. Well, g- what a, what a great weekend with, uh, US Open starting next week in the drawout, got a couple big horse races this weekend, college football's here.
3:31
Uh, it, it, it, it's pretty damn good right now. Wait a minute, you said horses. Can you start with some horses for us? [clears throat] Yeah, no, uh, I'll, I'll start tonight, actually.
3:40
Uh, be- before we get to, to Saratoga tomorrow, a big race tonight at Charlestown, the Charlestown Classic. [clears throat] Very, very big race.
3:47
Uh, Skippy Longstocking, who ran at Saratoga a couple weeks back, is in the race, defending champ. Uh, he's got a good chance to win, as does the number five horse, uh, Benduke.
3:56
But, uh, I actually landed on the number two, Warrior Johnny. He's 12 to one in the morning. And I played a, uh [clears throat]
4:02
an Exacta key box with, with, with the two, Warrior Johnny, with, with Benduke and Skippy Longstocking.
4:08
So that basically means Warrior Johnny has to come in first or second, and either Benduke or Skippy Longstocking has to come in the other spot in the Exacta.
4:16
And I'm gonna clear my throat really quickly here, one shot, because I, uh, I, I sound terrible right now. All right. Well, we should have cued the DJ Cool. [clears throat] Let me, let me clear my throat.
4:25
Let me clear my throat. Da, da, da, da, da, da, da. You're very good. Very good. Da, da, da, da. Perfect. I should be good now. All right, nose back. Okay. I, I had to give you a good one to apologize. Okay. Thank you.
4:32
That's great radio, Chris. Thank you. I appreciate that. I, I know. Um, [laughs] okay. Anything, anything else with, with horses? Yeah. Tomorrow I, I said the Travers at Saratoga, the Midsummer Classic.
4:42
I can't bet either Fierceness or Sierra Leone. Like, Sierra Leone always finds trouble.
4:48
Doesn't matter how big the field is, whether it's start, whether it's login, whether they, they change the bit, whether they don't change the bit, I can't find myself on this horse.
4:58
Uh, nor can I find myself on Fierceness, who, uh, it's been pretty common knowledge around the, the horse racing industry that, uh, Todd Pletcher prefers this horse have a, a lot more time between races, and he ran, uh, J- July 27th, so it'll be less than a month, uh, since he did win the Jim Dandy, where he beat Sierra Leone.
5:16
But yeah, I can't play him here. I, I think the pace presence, uh, with Dornoch and a couple others in there might hurt him. Now, I landed on a, a, a pretty long sh- pretty significant long shot in here.
5:27
Uh, the number four is Corporate Power, who, uh, w- was second in the Curlin here, uh, off of a, a bit of a layoff.
5:34
I think if you look at the, the, the way the, the pace presence rejects, uh, Corporate Power should be sitting off of what I think will be a heated pace.
5:42
And at 15 to one on the morning line for Shug McGaughey, who's, uh, won some big races quite often at a price in the past, I think Corporate Power at 15 to one is a horse that you might want to take a look at. All right.
5:53
What are you doing with week zero in college football? Nothing. Wow. Absolutely. I, I, there's so... I, I, I want to play over- In, in Florida State, Georgia Tech, but, but I, I think I'm just gonna wait.
6:05
I, I j- I just don't trust, uh, DJ Ungelea, a quarterback, and with all the losses that Florida State had on offense, I, I just don't know.
6:14
I don't think Georgia Tech's defense is any good, but, uh, again, I, I'm gonna wait and see.
6:18
I tried to talk myself into taking, uh, Delaware State plus 40, but I, I, I don't know if I wanna be sitting up at two o'clock in the morning watching Hawaii's backups against the MIAC team, so- Yeah...
6:29
uh, I, I'm showing great restraint, uh, week zero in college football. However, I, um... Wow, I just, we, y- you talk about it. We get tweets, we get texts. We- did you see the text we just got from Mike Slama?
6:43
I did, yeah. Wow. There we go. Wait a minute. Corporate power is top pick. How about that? Wow. Never mind. Yes. Never mind being a, never mind being on the same horse as Mike Slama. That's for sure.
6:53
[laughs] We have, we have simpatico. Corporate power, everybody. That's the horse. Count me in. I just bet it 18 to 1 sportsbook style. Did you really? There you go. Perfect.
7:01
Oh, man, I'm- But, uh- Keep, keep- I did bet some week one games in college football. Okay. What'd you bet week one? Yeah, I bet- We can skip ahead... I bet LSU, I bet LSU USC under 64.
7:11
Uh, I, I think all, after all of the entire off-season with these two teams and their coaches hearing how much their defenses sucked last year, you got USC bringing in D'Anton Lynn from his cross-town rival UCLA as defensive coordinator, and UCLA was a great defense last year.
7:26
You got Bl- Blaine Baker at LSU, who, uh, comes in, he's like the highest paid coordinator in college football now.
7:32
Uh, the, the narrative about how these defenses stink, but you gotta remember, you gotta replace two Heisman Trophy winners, uh, one for each team, with quarterback.
7:39
I think under 64 was a play, and I did play Rice minus 10 against Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State, uh, not a great go-around last year in the move to FBS.
7:49
I like Rice this year as a, as, as, as a bit of a, uh, a dark horse in the AAC. EJ Warner, uh, Kurt Warner's son, uh, the, the quarterback now, transferred from Temple.
7:58
I think Mike Bl- Mike Bl- Bloomeren's team, uh, could be very good offensively this year, and I think they'll take care of, uh, Sam Houston very handily there. Hey, I asked this of Dr. Bob, uh, yesterday.
8:08
I'll ask it of you, which is, uh, communication systems now allowed in college football, NFL style, if you will. So the days largely of, you know, 11 guys looking over at the coach, waiting- Mm-hmm...
8:20
to see what's coming in and then slowing down the game might be over in some cases. What, what kind of impact do you think this is gonna have?
8:25
Do you think the, do you think there will be opportunities in the betting market to go, because Bob's theory, and I, I believe it is, when you have up-tempo teams that are good offensively, your goal, I'll sort of paraphrase for Bob, your goal is- Mm-hmm...
8:38
to maximize your number of plays therefore. So couldn't that provide a betting opportunity theoretically?
8:45
Yeah, I, I think it could early on, 'cause I, I'm not sure this is a, this is the great time of the year if you're a bettor, because if you have a theory like that, I actually think it's gonna result in some higher scoring games as well, because I think the offense will have the advantage over the defense there, where I don't think the oddsmakers can adjust the total high enough right off the bat, uh, w- without really knowing truly how much of an effect, uh, this is gonna have.
9:09
But I do think we're, I, I like typically playing unders.
9:12
I mean, I think I'm probably gonna have to take a little bit more of a wait and see approach early in the year to see if this indeed does have a little bit more of a, uh, desired offensive effect, uh, like, like myself, and obviously Bob thinks it might too.
9:23
Yeah. US Open, what did you do, sir? Well, well, you and I have been talking, and, and I had mentioned last week how I bet, I bet Pgo- Pegula to win it at 50 to 1. I bet Mary Andreva at 26 to 1.
9:35
So I have those, and I did play Pegula to win. A- and I basically just tailed you on what you, what you had said. Uh, Pegula to win the quarter, Collins Sky to win the quarter.
9:43
Um, I added Muchova to, to win the quarter, and I d- I did play, uh, Pegula to reach the final at, uh, 27 to 1 as well. So, uh, uh, that, that's where I landed on, on, on that.
9:56
I don't know if I can get behind Zach's Pegula pick. There's something about... I get, I, I, I know it's just a, not really a scientific theory, just I just can't trust her. Like, it, it just- Yeah...
10:07
I, she had so many match points that she just couldn't close things out. Like, is she finally gonna break through and win a slam at, at her stage in her career?
10:18
Obviously she'll have to beat the winner most likely of the Iga Maria. Yeah. Uh, so that, that, that'll be, that'll be tough for her.
10:25
And on, on the men's side, I think it's probably gonna be hard to get by Alcaraz, even though a, an Alcaraz-uh, Jack Draper third round match could be a...
10:32
I, I think that will be, will be, uh, prime time in Ash, that's for sure. Have you ever gone to a prime time at Ash, by the way? Prime time at Ash, no, I have not. I, I, I- Ah...
10:41
I've been there walking around the grounds during the day growing up. I haven't been there in a long time.
10:47
I ac- actually, I might try to get down there at some point in the next couple weeks before I get super, super busy, if indeed I have a, uh, a chance. Night matches at the US Open should be on everybody's bucket list.
10:58
It is just, I mean, I get, I, uh, I'm such a dork. I get chills even talking about it. It's such a great- It's awesome... sports experience.
11:05
Um, if I had a ticket, let's put it this way, if I had a ticket on a Friday night, I would fly out to get there. Of course, I'd get to plane twice and I'd miss the match, but you know.
11:13
[laughs] You know, that's how that would happen. Um, Chris, thank you as always. And- Can I give you two more things really quickly? Oh, yeah. Real quick, go.
11:20
Yeah, uh, Dylan Gabriel under 33, 50 and a half passing yards. Ooh. Uh, that was at BetMGM. I think they're gonna be in a lot of blowouts.
11:27
I think you're gonna see Dante Moore, and they got a really good running game, so good Gabriel player prop under passing yards, and Temple under two and a half wins this year.
11:34
Uh, I don't really see three winnable games on the schedule. Temple under two and a half, and Dylan Gabriel prop from Chris. Thank you, sir. The Bear, Chris Velika at Chris Velika.
11:43
Bear Bets Pods, check them out, as, uh, big news starts this weekend. We'll come back, some Warren Sharp NFL stuff next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Hey, please do not check out, uh, please do not forget to check out, [laughs] not don't check out. Please don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
12:07
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. By the way, if you dig deep enough, we have pretty unbelievable baseball stats. Uh, pretty good, robust baseball stats.
12:20
First five stuff in there at vsin.com. Of course, you can watch episode one of Circus Survivor, the quest for $9.2 million at vsin.com as well. And Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA. Uh, Caitlin Clark doing her thing.
12:33
Dave Tulley is in there with his college football best bets for week zero. How about some Tulley? Under. [laughs] He loves unders. Tulley loves unders. Dog or pass Tulley.
12:42
Nigel Seeley on the Premier League, Zach Cohen on the NFL preseason, week number three. It's all in there, vsin.com. Check it out. Um, you were not here, Kelly Bidlin, uh, two weeks ago, BetBash.
12:55
Was BetBash last week or the week before? I don't even remember. Uh, week before. Week before. Yeah, yeah. I was out, yep. You were out.
12:59
Um, so we had not only a cavalcade of guests from, uh, from BetBash come in here, the Elihu Foistals and Rufus Peabodys of the world, the Captain Jacks of the world, and the Matt Buckalters of the world.
13:10
I could go on, but I'll stop. Uh, but we also had, uh, Warren Sharp with us as well. Not with us, but he came on, uh, via, via the, uh, Alexander Graham Bell invention of the telephone.
13:20
I'm not sure if you're aware of that. And, uh, we talked about lots of different things.
13:24
You are fascinated with the, with the rest advantage and rest disadvantage aspect of this, so I think it's worth taking another look at.
13:32
Um, again, Warren's big, the big thing with Warren, Warren has done his football previews. We've had Warren on the show for years, and he's done his football preview guides for many, many years.
13:42
And I think as he has evolved, and I sort of asked him about this when he was on, and I, I, I sort of said, "Are, are you okay sort of being known as the schedule guy now?" Yeah.
13:52
'Cause he kind of- Oh, that's interesting. Yeah, go ahead... 'cause he's kind of gravitated, that's kind of his brand thing. The- And I know he does the previews for every other team, but everybody does previews, right?
14:00
[clears throat] Pardon me. We do as well. Um, by the way, nice job- But-... on having DJ Cool ready to go when we were... [laughs] Like, like it's okay to excel at a per- Absolutely. You know what I mean?
14:10
And that's what he does. Absolutely. I don't know that he was particularly comfortable with it, by the way, but I- Okay...
14:14
I, I, I was like, "You're kind of that guy," because- It's kind of like Sean Nejad with golf, right? Sean Nejad with golf. Like, he's a great golf bettor. We're like, "Yeah." Yeah.
14:21
He happens to hit a lot on, a lot of first round leaders- That's right... so he kind of falls into that, uh- Yeah... that, uh, you know, stereotype or whatever.
14:28
So now I should, I should say this about, you know, the rest, the aggregate rest advantage and the aggregate rest disadvantage.
14:33
Warren does a great job because he is outraged by how the NFL is hypocritical on this, right? The NFL claims to want to, you know, protect players.
14:44
They claim to want to have balanced schedules, and none of it is, none of it is true.
14:48
And so again, this is, you know, the, the biggest example of this is the Ravens have the, the best rest advantage in all of football this year at plus 16 games.
14:56
Essentially what this is, is if the Ravens are playing a Monday night game, um, coming... Let, let, let's give an ex- let's give an extreme example.
15:06
If the Ravens are playing a Monday night football game when they played Thursday the previous week, and the team they're playing on that Monday night game, uh, happened to play the pre- you know, let's say the, the previous Sunday.
15:20
That's a what? Thursday to Sunday. That's a f- that's a three-game rest advantage on that particular week for the Baltimore Ravens. Three-game rest advantage, right?
15:30
Uh, from the Thur- 'cause they get the, uh, the extra rest on the front side. When you add and subtract all year long, week from week, then you get the aggregate, and the Ravens end up with the most at plus 16.
15:39
The Niners for the second straight year have by far the worst. They have a massive rest disadvantage of 21 days. So 16 to the positive for the Ravens, 21 to the negative for the Niners, and everybody else in between.
15:53
And so Warren makes a big deal about this because he thinks he, he, he sort of, you know, and, and he, rightfully so.
16:00
There are some handicappers, it must be stated, who don't buy into this as much as a, as anything handicapping-wise, right? Yes, absolutely. There is a flip side.
16:09
There is a flip side to this where people are like, "You know what? That's..." By the way, I, and I would say as a guy in sort of in the middle, I would say it is a tool like any other.
16:18
I wouldn't go absolutely nuts with it. Uh, uh, that's perf- that is absolutely the way I would put it as well. Yeah. The, these are all things though I think you need to be aware of- Yeah...
16:27
and l- and looking at before you're making season-long bets, and before you're going through a schedule and cir- circling different spots for teams, whether it's, you know, we were talking in-season win totals a couple segments ago, but even if it's just for games, realizing what their, you know, what buys and where they're coming out of and stuff like that.
16:44
This is g- these are great notes to have. Now, what his guide does do is, is, is he isolates the points when a t- you know, where a team is on, 'cause he also does three games in 10 days. Right. Four games in 17.
16:55
Like, the NFL's doing things this year that they've never done before, um, especially in volume. Um, but you know, let's say you, let's say you were under on the Niners, right?
17:04
Let's say your thinking is y- you think the Niners are worse than the market. Well, the minus 21 net rest disadvantage might corroborate your feeling.
17:14
Now, there could be some confirm- some perilous confirmation bias in that as well, where it sort of leads you astray. You're like, "Oh, that clearly puts me over the top."
17:23
And, you know, so you have to figure out what is signal- Yeah... and what is noise on that.
17:26
But just to, just to throw it out there, it's the, uh, we can throw up either one, the, uh, the, the top or the bottom here, 'cause I just wanna list some more teams.
17:33
And, and it's not apples to apples, but like you're, well, uh, like you're talking about, how serious do you, or how serious do you take this stuff? How much do you read into this stuff?
17:40
Like, is it as important to as strength of schedule based off of win totals to me? No, not at all. No. Like that, the strength of schedule is far more important.
17:48
Also, on a week-to-week basis, is it as, is it as important? I would say the week-to-week stuff is more important. Yes, correct. Yes. Like, I just wanna know on one particular week.
17:55
Uh, but just for your edification, Niners with the worst at minus 21 net rest days edge, minus 21.
18:02
So they're three total weeks when you put it all together, worse than the opponents they play in terms of rest for the whole season. Back to back years, right, for them as the number, uh, the worst team? Number one.
18:11
And that's what Warren is correct about. Like, it shouldn't work out that way that the Niners have it the worst two, you know, two years in a row as badly as they did.
18:18
It shouldn't, but you're always gonna be in that situation when you're a better team- They should, right... who's gonna be on prime time games, right? Like, there's a better chance of you falling into this category.
18:25
That's right. Broncos minus 17 for those scoring at home. Colts also minus 17. Seahawks minus 13. Chargers and Saints both at minus 10 of the double digits on the negative side.
18:35
On the positive side, as we mentioned, it's the Ravens at plus 20, uh, excuse me, plus 16. Patriots, Vikings, Eagles all at plus 12.
18:44
So again, you know, for those who are high on the Eagles, for instance, you'd be like, "Well, there's another just sort of thing to throw in the old quiver there." Yep.
18:51
Um, another arrow in the quiver on the Eagles at plus 12. Everybody else in single digits. Um, now again, Warren is, you know- Patriots can take twice that much. Yeah. Take, take, take your time.
19:00
[laughs] Take another, take another couple weeks. He, I think he pointed out, I, I wanna say this, don't hold me to this, but I believe the Patriots are at a disad- are, are never at a rest disadvantage all year.
19:11
In any particular game. He does point out, though, the difference between the, the, the plus 16 for the Ravens and the minus 21 for the Niners, if you look at it as a, as a macro thing, 37- Right... days difference.
19:22
So a season, a regular season that lasts le- la- last four months, right? September, uh, October, November, and December. I know it bleeds into January, but we start a little late. So four months of a regular season.
19:33
The notion that one out of 32 teams versus another of those 32 teams has more than a month of rest advantage head-to-head is pretty unbelievable. It really is. It really is.
19:47
And that's where, and that's where I think that's- Yeah... that's where it's good to be aware of this stuff and making notes, because yeah, like, that's a thing. And guess what?
19:53
Like, injuries happen and they pile up for teams- They do... and they often happen with teams that are playing on short week after short week.
19:59
And Kelly, that's a great point, because we don't, when we get to the end of the season, and particularly to the postseason, do we ever vocalize that when we're talking about a game? I doubt we do. Yeah, not much.
20:11
Which is, "Well, this team's exhausted," right? I, again, I have a... Let me just sort of speak out of school here a little.
20:18
Uh, my little buddy, he's not little anymore, but my little buddy's on, was on the practice squad on the, on the Ravens ye- last year. Hopefully he makes the team this year.
20:26
And, you know, I kinda know how rough practices are with, with, with the certain team, um, with the Ravens, and I do sort of think to myself, I'm like, "Wow, like, the Ravens practices..."
20:40
I, and I know, I kinda know what Washington's practices are like.
20:43
Those are just the teams I, uh, that were closer to me growing up, and now I have this, uh, this Ravens contact where it's sort of like one team is really going crazy deep into the preseason versus another team, and most teams kinda let go, uh, towards the end of the preseason.
20:58
And I do wonder, right, 'cause the Ravens, you know, the, everyone, everyone kills Lamar Jackson, you haven't gotten to a Super Bowl. Is it because the Ravens are just so... It, it's still August. Yeah.
21:09
And if you're, if you're, if you're, you know, physically exhaust- I'm not saying they are, but I'm just saying, like, we don't necessarily vocalize that at the end of the season for, uh, for certain teams, you know?
21:21
So- Yeah, absolutely. And I think that's all that is, is like, it's the opposite of, like, we're very aware entering this season that the Bills are banged up heading into the season. That's right.
21:29
Like, we're very aware of that. We don't, I don't know if we do that as good of a job coming out of the season, right? 'Cause you, you get used to these teams having played without guys and stuff like that. Yeah.
21:38
On the other hand, there's no, uh, there's no, like, it's not sacred either, right? I think the Packers, the year that Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl, I believe they had the most games lost to injury that year,
21:50
I believe. So I, I co- I, maybe I'm not remembering that correctly, but I think that was the case. So, you know, the, is it, is it, does it always work out cleanly? No. No. Yeah, no. Not at all.
22:01
But again, just another tool to have in your NFL handicapping kit, um, where the Ravens have the best net reg- uh, best net rest edge aggregate. Say that a few times quick. [laughs] And the, uh, Niners have the worst.
22:13
And, uh- Pr- how about a quick golf update for you? Please, yes. Uh, over at the BMW Championship, it was pretty wild about 30 minutes ago, uh, Hideki Matsuyama withdrew from the tournament.
22:25
Uh, he was one shot off the lead, I believe, at the close of round one yesterday. Oh, man. Lower back injury for him, and that is a, um, unfortunately something he has dealt with before. Adam Scott having a great day.
22:35
Four under on his round, leads at eight under par. No FedExCup for, uh, for Hideki, I suppose, is what that means. Um, hope he's okay after the robbery and now this. Jason Weingarten on the other side.
22:47
He's next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Back on a Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada, The Barrage, here at Bar Canada, The D, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. From the, uh, Kelly, from the you can't make this up department.
23:05
So again, end of yesterday's show, Jahan Dotson gets traded from Washington to Philly. Again, weird timing right before the season, in division, he's your number two in DC, what are we doing?
23:17
Um, and then this morning, the report about Brandon Aiyuk may go to Washington. Oh, now it kinda makes sense.
23:22
But then your brain goes to, "Yeah, but if they were gonna trade for Brandon Aiyuk, wouldn't Jahan Dotson b- have been part of that deal, uh, coming back? Or maybe the Niners didn't want Jahan."
23:32
So, so your brain goes in a lot of directions. Now this report. Oh, okay. This report, um,
23:39
sources say that there was friction between Jahan Dotson, Adam Peters, uh, Washington's GM, and Dan Quinn, Washington's head coach. I cannot repeat what I'm, what I'm, what I'm reading right here.
23:50
I, I will, I will edit this. Dotson was caught on multiple occasions disparaging the team name with some expletives, wanting to go back to the previous team name. [laughs] Okay. All right.
24:07
Aggre- aggressively disparaging the team name. And so anyway, that's just a report.
24:12
Like, apparently he didn't get along with the coach and the GM, and he was killing the team name, which we all have been killing the team name. Yeah, I was gonna say.
24:17
I, I can't, as a lifelong fan, it's hard for me to even say it. And, and wh- and which one did he wanna go back to? The football team? 'Cause you're- No, no, no... he'd be in your camp. No.
24:25
Yeah, yeah, [laughs] yeah, that might be a problem, Jahan. He wanted to go all the way back. That might be an issue. [laughs] He wanted to go all the way.
24:29
By the way, Washington football team would be very acceptable to most of us, if I may speak on behalf. Yeah. Yeah, I think the Washington football team was so widely accepted- It was... that the, the what was it?
24:41
The Salt Lake City hockey team, right? Yeah. They were like, they threw that out as an option, where it was like Utah Hockey Club or something. I, I quite enjoyed it actually.
24:49
And I liked, I liked the font, I liked everything about it. We get tweets. Before we get to Jason, we get tweets. Let's read some more of these. This is from Grissom.
24:54
It's our buddy Matt Grissom, our college baseball guy, uh, Matt Grissom. "I flew out here for the big announcement so I could be one of the first ones to try the secret sushi spot.
25:02
What on earth am I gonna do with all of this free time now?" I don't know, man. Sorry, man. Apologies for that.
25:08
Johnny Ringo, "As penance for this sushi snafu, no vacations during Tennis Slams for the 2025 calendar year." Did I take a vacation during a Slam this year? Maybe I did. Uh, Mr. Masterline- Yeah, you did on one.
25:18
I forgot which. [laughs] Wimbledon. Wimbledon? Yeah. Wimbledon, yeah. Mr. Masterline, "My private detective on retainer followed you to sushi, so I'm glad you're not sharing."
25:26
Yeah, I gotta see if we're getting tailed or lojacked. Al Yonis, uh, "What was the race for the simpatico?" What he means there is, what was the race for corporate power- Saratoga tomorrow, the Travers Stakes?
25:38
The Travers Stakes. Travers Stakes. You never heard of the Travers? You act like you didn't hear of the Travers Stakes before. You're like, "Travers Stakes?" Like, it's one of those, yeah- [laughs]...
25:46
like I think I have, but- Kelly's like, "The Super Bowl? What is this thing?" Uh, yeah, corporate power in the [laughs] Tra- the Travers Stakes. What was the name of it again, and then the number?
25:56
Uh, it is the, the, with the Travers Stakes, corporate power, eight- 18 to 1 is where I bet that. 18 to 1. Okay. Sportsbook style. Oh, oh, and one more. Doug Wedge. Oh, our buddy Doug Wedge.
26:04
"I've had, uh, two major letdowns in the last 24 hours. No sushi spot reveal, and the last episode of season two of House of the Dragon. I can't handle it. I'm going back to bed."
26:15
Are you familiar with the House of the Dragon? Yeah, I've wa- I'm watching it. I'm watching it. It's the, it's the Game of Thrones, uh, pretty cool spinoff thing or whatever. He, he was not happy with it.
26:23
I don't, it, I don't, I don't. He was- It's one of those shows I've somehow watched two seasons of, and you're like, "Why am I watching this again?" [laughs] It's, it's not that great.
26:29
And Mike Stacks, "When you take down Survivor this year, Gil, can Kelly take a pic of you with all your money in front of the sushi place?" Well, okay. Again, I'd have to ask them.
26:38
I, but if we did it really close, nobody would know where it is anyways though. And Anthony, as NFL and college, uh, basketb- oh, uh, college football, he means, season near. Maybe he means college basketball.
26:48
Yes, he does mean college basketball, uh, 'cause it's Wishnev's thing. He goes, "It's time to let Todd Wishnev out of the cork attic. Once again, Megapod begins before week one."
26:56
Uh, what is that, next week or the week, and w- I can't even r- no, it's the week after next. Yeah.
27:00
Uh, Megapod, Will Hill, Todd Wishnev, rotating guests, and Todd and I planning on doing halftimes of, uh, primetime games this year on Twitter, if we can figure out how it works.
27:10
We don't have to ask anybody's permission at a sushi place for that, so that should be good. Jason Weingarten joins us from under a cloud of smoke, @spreadapedia, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
27:19
What's happening, Jason? Not much, just, uh, you know, another, another week, another, another week, preseason games, all, all sorts of fun stuff going on. Have you bet anything, preseason week three?
27:32
Uh, I bet the Broncos, I bet the Packers, and I bet the Texans. Wow, going hard. And all of this based on just sort of intel information that you've gathered? More or less.
27:45
I mean, you know, you just kind of pay attention to who you think's gonna play and who's not, and it's, it's not that hard.
27:51
Preseason's actually the, the worst part about the preseason, I always say, is knowing you're gonna have your best weeks of NFL in August. Repeat the plays again, Jason, for those who missed it. Packers, Texans, Broncos.
28:05
Packers, two and a half point favorites against the Ravens. Uh- Oh, I bet, I bet the money lines. I'm, I'm- Oh... I don't care about the bets here. Okay. I'm just playing, I'm playing the money lines.
28:13
Well, but I'm glad we- But- I'm glad we reviewed it then. Yeah, money line on everyth- everything, Jason? 'Cause I was gonna ask you about numbers too. Yeah, money, money line everything. Okay.
28:20
Minus 180, I think, is the, the highest on the Broncos. I'd lay that all day. Packers, Broncos, and what was the third? Texas. Texans. Uh, Te- Texans. Okay.
28:29
Back- Packers, Broncos, and Texans as we close out the NFL preseason. Uh, I was thinking about you yesterday, Jason.
28:35
With every Paul Skene's pitch, and with every Paul Skene strikeout, I was like, "Ooh, I wonder how Jason's feeling about this."
28:42
Probably needs Jackson Merrill to go crazy, or probably hoping Jackson Merrill goes crazy tonight. Um, Padres got, uh, stomped by the Mets. But, uh, another great outing from Skene.
28:50
Skene's now turns back to the favorite, uh, for National League Rookie of the Year. Um, just one of the shops that we're looking at here, minus 130 on Skene, minus 105 on Merrill.
29:03
Obviously, these will, uh, be very- I mean, hey, look, can I just cut you off there real quick? Please. Skene, Skene's had a great game. Nine strikeouts. Can't hate on that.
29:13
Second off, there's no requirement that I don't bet on the Pirates or on Skene just 'cause I have a Merrill ticket. So I had, had the Pirates yesterday, had Skene's under 18 and a half outs, over 17 and a half outs.
29:27
I did really well on that game, um, in general. But, uh, when I think about the market moving, it makes me kind of think about Warren Buffett and his whole idea of Mr.
29:38
Market and how the market could be schizophrenic and it, it, you just never know what's going on. Um, did it really take a nine strikeout performance against the Cincinnati Reds?
29:49
[laughs] And three of those strikeouts were Dom, Dom Smith, who was signed yesterday by the Reds. Just got cut by the, the Red Sox.
29:58
Like, it took, it took nine strikeouts upo- against a bunch of bums for you to change your mind? Like, do you always look at the last thing you see and weigh that more importantly than everything else?
30:10
Like, did anything that happened last night change the fact that Jackson Merrill's still on pace for a top 10 wart season by an under 21-year-old player since 1945?
30:21
Like, what, are, are, are we just blinded by the last thing we see, and it's gonna change the market every day for the rest of the season? The answer is yes. Like, of course.
30:29
[laughs] I was just gonna, I was gonna cut you off, Jason, and say I think you're answering your own question, even though you're posing it as rhetorical. Yes, people are affected by recency bias, right?
30:37
And it also, these markets- Absolutely. And that's, that's the hardest- Yeah... that's the hardest bias to overcome, I think- Yeah... is the recency bias. Yeah. Um, but yeah, Skene's was great last night.
30:46
Can't, can't, can't say he wasn't great. Can't really nitpick other than to say, "Well, the Reds are a bunch of bums."
30:53
But, uh, if, if the last thing you see is always the most important, then you're not gonna do well with betting long term, I don't think. I think that's great advice. I also think, like, it's baseball, right?
31:04
It's not football. So I think, uh, obviously it takes a lot, you know, it takes much less money to move this dramatically. Um, w- I know we talk about baseball. I know the network talks about baseball.
31:18
Baseball, this just in, not nearly as popular as football, right? So the football awards markets versus baseball awards market, it's quite different.
31:25
And so we are seeing not only game by game, sometimes, uh, with Merrill, it feels like it's shifting in game, right? If he does something in the third inning, the market will move for the shops that keep it up.
31:37
So it's that, it's that, uh, sensitive, if you will, the market itself. I, I don't, I don't put too much into the back and forth, you know?
31:46
Like, this, this was similar, like, Naz Reid, for example, won the Sixth Man of the Year in the NBA.
31:51
Down the stretch, the last 10 games or so, his odds would change every game, you know, depending on how the Timberwolves played. And I'd tell Preston, I'd be like, "None of this matters.
32:01
You know, just 'cause they lost tonight doesn't mean all of a sudden, you know, he's not the winner. He either is or he isn't." Same thing with Skeens and Merrill.
32:08
These guys still have 30 something games to state their case. Either, you know, guy's gonna win or he's not. You f- You know, we can talk about it all, all we want, but it's- You, you-...
32:16
you know, right now it's on, on the field. You feeling good about Colton Cowser, American League Rookie of the Year? Another- Uh, I don't s- I don't see anybody else really taking, uh, taking, taking it away from him.
32:26
I mean, he's playing every day and Austin Wells is, is a platoon catcher. Who else, w- who else is taking it away, and why? What did you bet today, Jason? Not much.
32:36
You know, the, the truth is baseball o- other than paying attention to these, uh, these, these markets, it's winding down as we get closer to September.
32:45
Um, I did lay 195 with the Blue Jays against the, uh, the listless Angels today, but otherwise, you know, we're getting into brain dead parlay season, as you call it. Yes.
32:58
Where you just start, you know, fading the, the bad teams and, you know, it's, it's September.
33:03
September's my least favorite month of, of baseball, so um, you know, really excited to wind up baseball in the next week or two. Yeah. I quite enjoy MLB brain dead parlay season.
33:13
Uh, Jason, did you ca- did you catch any news on the Niners', uh, Raiders this morning? That Niners sign is getting steamed like crazy right now. They're out to here now. I have not.
33:20
I'll have, I'll have to check that out after, right after this. Thanks for, uh, pointing that out, but no, I have not connected to you. Okay.
33:26
Yeah, I don't know- Jason Weingarten, everybody, @spreadapedia on the Twitter machine. Thank you, Jason, as always. Good luck with all the- Have a good week, guys. He gave us a little cheers.
33:35
You see that with his, uh- Yeah... with his beverage there. Uh, we'll come back, we'll uh, wrap it up. We'll recap the US Open picks and sushi next.
33:42
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Jahan Dotson very upset with the team name. Can you be traded for not liking your team name?
33:58
Like, what if somebody walked up to Jerry Jones and was like, "I hate the Cowboys name," and then he like, he cursed about it. Would Jerry be like, "Well, we gotta trade you now"? Um, yeah. [laughs] I think Jerry would.
34:08
I think you picked a bad example there. I, I think, or I think both the Commanders... Uh, okay, they've had some issues with names in the past, so you're just probably best to move on from whoever.
34:17
But yeah, Jerry Jones, I don't think you wanna walk into that dude's office talking about the Cowboys. Sorry, wide receiver two, you've gone too far. [laughs] It was als- it was also the nature of what he said. Yeah.
34:28
Yeah. Feel like it depends on the owner, ownership too, right? When we see the, uh, the, the always classy, uh, uh, Te- Dave Tepper out in Carolina tear, tearing down signs and stuff in stores this off season.
34:38
Like- What is that guy's problem? Same thing. Dude, you own the team. What is wrong with you? Yeah, you own, you own a team. You're not, you're not allowed to act like a child everywhere. [laughs] Let's go.
34:47
We always make the comparison to American royalty, like if you owned an NFL team. It's like, it's a comparison, okay? It's not actually a fact. You're not a la- You don't own the country.
34:55
David Tepper monitoring all Circle Ks. [laughs] And Winn-Dixies. It was something like that, right? [laughs] It was like a small little store or restaurant or something. Like a, like old shop, yeah. Yeah.
35:04
By the way, uh, the Patriots', uh, J- Jerod Mayo has an announcement to make. Okay, so he's gonna, it's... Oh, you're gonna three, you're gonna see Brisset to start the preseason finale.
35:13
Drake May, Joe Milton will also play, and then he's- Joe Milton has a cannon, by the way. Yeah. [laughs] Cannon. I've never seen a human being throw a football longer than Joe Milton has.
35:23
And then quote from him from yesterday, he said, "Monday, Monday night we should know who the starting quarterback is." All right, we all assumed it was gonna be Jacoby Brisset. You know what they say about assuming.
35:34
Yeah. Uh, it, uh, it makes a mockery over, uh, the both of us, I believe is what, is what assuming means. Yeah, nailed it. The, the, uh...
35:42
We, we assume that it would be Jacoby Brisset, but if it, if it turns out to be Drake May, a bunch of folks are gonna cash big on that, 'cause he was lo- tho- those were long odds, right?
35:53
Those were like plus 550- Yeah... or something on, on him to be the first week starter. I don't... Yeah, yeah, yeah, something like that.
35:58
I still- I still feel like it's gonna be Brisset, but like to make, to make an announcement that you're going to make an announcement sounds pretty dramatic to me. I would still think it's gonna be Brisset.
36:07
I think that I, I agree with a lot of the commentary out there though, that this preseason it's been okay, like Brisset not looking as good as you were probably hoping he would.
36:17
May maybe looking as good, if not better than you expected, and at the end of the day, you selected the guy where you selected the guy, selected him at, why wouldn't you be playing him day one? I think it's Brisset.
36:27
Now, the pushback always was you don't wanna get the kid killed behind a horrible offensive line and no weapons to throw to. What's the point? Right, you got Brisset specifically for this reason. Yeah.
36:36
This was the plan, right? So it's, it's, I think it's still Jacoby. Like I, Jacoby Brisset I think would have to be like really bad for them to consider not- Oh, yeah... starting him week one. Oh, yeah.
36:44
And Jacoby Brisset is, is a lot of things. Really bad is not one of them. Yeah, I agree. I, I... It's just, it just goes back to what's the rush? W- w- with- Yeah...
36:51
sorry, when you know the team is not that great, what is the rush? Any, uh, any research, uh, discovered on why this Niners Raiders line is moving? That's why I was scrolling through my whole NFL timeline.
37:01
I didn't see any big like recent injury news- From-... or anything but we- From seven to nine you said? Seven to nine. We have a nine and a half out there. It is basically painted nine. I can't, I don't...
37:13
I did have one, I saw stations in town, it was a little dragon. I was considering it, [laughs] but I'm like, I'm not, I'm not really a steam chaser, uh, by nature anyways, you know what I mean?
37:21
And this is a game with a 32 and a half total we're talking about. Yeah, this fly is just g- after me. Oh, Marty's back? Marty's back. Marty McFly's back. Uh, Raiders nine point home dogs.
37:31
I'll, uh, see if I see Antonio Pierce at the, uh, the old homestead today, I'll ask him about it. Yeah. "Hey, you know you're a nine-point dog now?" Yeah, boys out to nine and a half here in town. Um- That is wild...
37:40
baseball, by the way, we haven't updated this in a while, so we will here before the weekend for you. If you have an August wins, most wins bet in Major League Baseball, here are the current standings.
37:50
The Arizona Diamondbacks, who were idle last night, uh, they remain in first place by one win. Uh, the D-backs are at, uh, I'll get this correct here, at 14 and 5, thank you very much.
38:03
Astros, Dodgers, Padres, after the Padres got beat by the Mets 8 to 3 last night, all three of those teams are at 13 and 6, one win behind. Remember, these are wins. One win behind the Diamondbacks.
38:16
Diamondbacks have eight games left. Dodgers, Padres also... Excuse me, the, uh, Dodgers have eight games left, but the Astros and Padres each have nine games left. Um, Brewers, Twins. Brewers 12 and 7, Twins 12 and 8.
38:29
Couple games behind, couple wins behind the Diamondbacks. And then the Royals, Cubs, and Giants, 11 and 7, 11 and 7, and 11 and 8 respectively. Three wins behind the Diamondbacks.
38:38
Not pictured, but just on the outside looking in of the page anyway, the Mets, who was my pick, who are now 10 and 10, so. [laughs] They're, they're trying. Hey, they're... [laughs] Yeah. They're trying. They're trying.
38:51
They just can't really get there. Uh, this is- I like that guilt tone. That was like- Yeah... it was like you're defending your child- Yeah, they're trying... who wasn't playing well. [laughs] He tries.
38:58
Little, little Johnny tries. Uh, well, I have a bet on the, uh, Diamondbacks for the, uh, best record in Major League Baseball, also number one seed in the, uh, NL.
39:06
But for best record in Major League Baseball, the Dodgers right now have that. 76 and 52.
39:11
There are only four and a half games separating the number one best record in all of baseball, AL and NL, and the 10th best team, the Padres, at 72 and 57. Think about that.
39:25
A third of Major League Baseball within four and a half games of each other for the best record. Wow. And as, uh, Jeff Passan, as we read the Jeff Passan tweet earlier this, this week, it has been since 2014,
39:38
a decade, since a team didn't win, or what was it? The, the team won 95 games or didn't win 100. Didn't win 100. Didn't win 100. Yeah. We're on pace for 95.
39:48
And by the way, as, as bad as the Yankees have been, they're still, uh, they're still one game worse than the best record in all of baseball. Yeah, like that, that's a market I'd love to see.
39:57
What, what were those numbers beginning of the year of how... Like, there's always the- Oh, man... how many teams will win 100 plus games. Oh, Fezzik bets that all the time. He bets the 100 losses and 100 wins. Yeah.
40:08
Um- I don't remember what those odds were, but I don't know. One, I mean, one of those teams would have to catch fire between now to get to 100. Yeah. It's possible, but they would have to catch fire.
40:16
Um- 'Cause that's like an index prop. So it's l- it's like how many, so it's one, two, three, four, you know- Yeah... all the way down. Uh, it'll be interesting 'cause again, all these teams in a mosh pit.
40:26
This is a scrum. Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Brewers, Guardians, O's. I have the Orioles and the Yankees just, just when, when they're both bad, they're both... When, when one's bad, the other's bad.
40:38
When one's good, the other's good. All year long. Yeah. The Orioles could not take advantage of the Yankees' massive swoon in the middle of this season. Diamondbacks, Royals, Twins, Padres rounding out those top 10. Um,
40:49
Marcello Zuna update, 'cause we brought this up earlier in the week, and I just, I just find this fascinating, and this has to do with, again, some people have, some people have had Triple Crown be- bets available to them.
40:59
Um, it's also applies to the MVP market, where Shohei is still a massive favorite. Obviously, Aaron Judge, by the way, 48 homers, my God, in the American League. He's totally winning.
41:08
It doesn't matter how great Bobby Witt Jr. is. We've been saying that the whole time, uh, that as great as Witt is, we cannot possibly recommend a bet on him.
41:15
I don't think I can recommend a bet on anybody but Shohei in the National League. And Marcello Zuna, and I say this, and this is again, just such a fascinating historical baseball thing.
41:24
Marcello Zuna, 37 homers, 94 RBI, and a.308 batting average. He is number one in RBI by six over Shohei. He is number one in batting average by nine points better than Luis Urias. Oh, my gosh.
41:38
10 points better than, uh, Ketel Marte. And he's only two homers behind Shohei for that last Triple Crown position, and yet he's the third shot at 30 to 1.
41:50
This is fascinating historically, again, because from 1967 to 2012, nobody won a Triple Crown, right? Yastrzemski in '67 in the American League, Miguel Cabrera in 2012 for the Tigers.
42:01
And so you had to, at least my position at the time was you have to give him the MVP for winning the Triple Crown, 'cause we've talked about it for 45 years as this mythical thing.
42:09
Well, nobody's won it since Miguel Cabrera. J- Mar- M- uh, uh, uh, Z- Zuna, Marcell Ozuna is right on the cusp of it, and he's... And no one even cares. Yeah. Because, by the way, Francisco Lindor's...
42:23
Yeah, I don't know what this, this love for Lindor makes no sense that he's down to 9 to 1 as the second shot. [laughs] Shohei is 39 and 39 in the 40 to 40. Francisco.
42:31
The, the quickest anybody has ever gotten a 40 40, I believe, was Jose Canseco, uh, Jose Canseco on like September 23rd. This is August, and Shohei is on the cusp of going 40 40. He could be the first 45 45 guy.
42:49
Dare I even suggest 50 50? Remember, Acuna went 40 60 last year. Yeah. That is wild. Yeah. I, I mean, like the, I, I, I know we've talked about this multiple times.
43:02
40 40, by the way, the history of baseball, Canseco, Bonds, Soriano, Acuna, and A- Grace, you have anything?... A-Rod. A-Rod? Yeah. Um, good memory. Well. Well done. Thank you.
43:15
The, uh, like I'd like to say at this number, like we, we've been talking about this for what? A month? Yeah. Like, "Hey, what happens if Ozuna's flirting with that?" Well, uh, hmm.
43:22
The, I think the problem from my standpoint, 'cause I've talked, I think I've been more closer to putting a bet in on it as a flyer than, than you, uh, for sure.
43:30
But the, um, problem is like the, the national conversation, there's none. None. There's no conversation- Zero... about Marcell Ozuna- No... winning that award. No. So like that- And again-...
43:39
like that's the biggest thing where I'm just like, I can't. Like if anybody was pushing for this, I think it would make, make me put a bet in. And it's Shohei, the face of baseball, and Aaron Judge. Yeah.
43:48
New York, LA, I mean, you know, that's part of it as well. Um, I would like to apologize once again for those who are tuning in here to the end for the sushi reveal.
43:55
Uh, for those who missed it, again, I always said that they have to allow it, and I, we went last night, uh, I have witnesses with Kelly, uh, Samich and, uh, and Matt Brown, the co-host of the, of The Handle.
44:06
They just respectfully asked that I not do that. Um, as, as Joe said, they, "I don't know if they can take the smoke." Well, they didn't say that in those words. Yeah. But that was kind of what they said to us. Yeah.
44:17
They couldn't take, they, they didn't want the smoke from it. So I do apologize. I hope you will forgive me. We've done all we can do. Best bets is next. Enjoy from Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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