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Aug 24, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:22
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number two of a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidelon. Sup?
0:28
In the hizzy, right here from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Who's this guy, by the way, uh, Kelly? Uh, Matt Brown and I were trying to figure this out last week.
0:36
Is there, like, an, ESPN has new faces that they've just thrown at us. Wait, wait, wait, wait. Because of all the- Matt Brown knew who that was. No, he didn't. He had no idea. It's, uh, Evan- Kevin Clark, right? Oh.
0:47
Kevin Clark. Okay. There we go. Just curious. All right. Now I'm gonna blow it- Okay... botching his name. I don't know. I don't know.
0:52
Not to send everybody there, but I was just wondering, 'cause he's everywhere all of a sudden. He's really good. I feel really bad about botching his name. No. He does, he does a great podcast. Yeah. Okay.
1:01
Yeah, Kevin Clark. All right. There we go. Kevin Clark. We get tweets. Beating the book, Jason Stark, "Welcome back, Kelly.
1:06
Great to have the band back together, but you and Gil being back in the studio means football is very close." He said both you and Gil in the studio means football is very close. Yes, indeed it is. That's right.
1:15
It's been a, it's been a long summer with each of us, uh, in different locations and vacations. You in San Francisco. Yeah. Thanks to Matt Brown, by the way, for last week.
1:24
Thank you to Matt Brown for- Filling in for me a couple days. Couple days, Monday and Wednesday. Yeah. I heard that was fun. Oh, it was great fun. It was like, it was like riding a bike, you know? That's right.
1:35
You know, uh, and, and I thought of, I heard that from- Yeah... from somebody. Yeah. And I thought about it.
1:38
I was like, you know, well, like, Matt and I have done a bunch together 'cause he fills in often when you're out. I think that, I think that's the first time Matt and I have done since Primetime Action probably. Yeah.
1:46
I think. I feel like he'd probably been on set with us once or twice. Well, well, he's been with both of us, you know? Right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. But just you two, yeah. Uh, Jason H11, "Is Kel- so is Kelly still single?"
1:57
Yeah. Following your Nashville trip? Yeah, it was, of course. You know, I went to Nashville and came home, came home with a long distance relationship now. [laughs] Just what you want.
2:07
Whatever the tweet was of the, uh, the number of times I've fallen in love though, that, that over- Yeah... it over hitting one night with an, with an Irish bachelorette party, Gil. Oh.
2:15
I tell you, I'm just gonna leave it at that. I'm just gonna leave it at that. I, my, my- Actually, you wouldn't have liked it. I bet, no. There's a lot of good-looking blondes running around. [laughs] Including myself.
2:23
[laughs] That's not, that's not my jam. It's not your style. David Donnelly, "Hi Gil, enjoy your show. I loved your Iga pick to win the US Open. Took her at 8/1." Good for you.
2:30
"Is there any other woman down the board that you would like?" Yeah, I just mentioned, uh, Amanda Anisimova, 20/1 would be the longest shot I would consider.
2:38
Toronski, John Osher, I love when people do this kind of thing.
2:41
It's, "Dear Gil, I love Alcaraz as much as anybody, but no one in the modern era has ever won the US Open without having played either Cincinnati or the Canadian Open as a warmup. Alcaraz is not winning this.
2:50
Huge opportunity for Shelton, Fritz, Feast, wide open." Well, I agree with that last part. But I love when people like, you, you must get this in golf a lot.
2:57
I love when people, like, g- make a grandstand about that one person is not winning this. And you're like, "Hey, congratulations." Yeah. "You were correct. Somebody else from a 80-player pool won." Yeah, yeah.
3:10
Well, yeah. Um- 100, 144 golfers out there every week. Yeah. And, uh, every time we don't pick the one guy who wins it, we all suck, and then it's, you know, it's Scottie Scheffler who wins it or something.
3:18
[laughs] How did you not see that coming? Hey, uh, Dukes, Dukes of the P- W, "Hey Gil, just want to give a shout-out to all the White Sox backers on over 66 and a half which hit over the weekend. Don't sleep on them."
3:29
Uh, Joe Peta came on the show, gave that out earlier this year, right, before the season started. Shout-out to Joe Peta. Shout-out to everybody else who had it. And, uh, Shrek, "Are we sure Rybakina's going to play?"
3:39
Yeah, that calf Achilles, calf/Achilles looks scare, scray. I think he meant scary. When, uh, she quit versus Iga. Yeah, 4-1 Iga and then, uh, Rybakina just couldn't go.
3:49
She all of a sudden, she like, she like bent down for, like, a little short chip volley and her leg was shot in one... Ca- can't risk it after that. That's scray. We're not sure. That is scray. That's scray.
4:01
Hey, uh, sh- can we, uh, pour out a 40 for, uh, Nick Chubb? Yeah. Nick Chubb retiring after eight seasons in the National Football League. Mama, don't let your boys grow up to be running backs.
4:12
It's tough, it's a tough gig these days. Or, like, do it right now so they get paid, 'cause who knows what it's gonna, how we're gonna ta- uh, how we're gonna, uh, think about this position, like, five years from now.
4:22
Yeah. Right, Jeremiah Love is the highest paid running back in the NFL, right? That, he is the highest paid running back in the NFL. Jeez.
4:30
[laughs] Seahawks, by the way, shut down, uh, Ja'Darian Price for the rest of the preseason, having, uh, seen enough and questions about health in the running back room.
4:39
Speaking of running backs, their first round draft pick, Ja'Darian Price. I'm an offensive rookie of the year ticket holder on Ja'Darian Price, Gil. That, I saw that news. You like that news. Like that news.
4:50
I, I know part of it is, like, health issues with the [laughs] Ra- Yeah... that's not a good thing for the Seahawks.
4:56
The fact that he, they've, they played all of what, one pre-season game before they shut him down and saw a couple weeks of him in camp and it's, "Nah, he's not playing again. We cannot get him hurt."
5:05
Uh, let's- That's huge... let's take a look at that, by the way. Offensive rookie of the year where Jeremiah Love is the short shot at 5/1. Carnell Tate, Ja'Darian Price, and Fernando Mendoza all at 6/1.
5:14
Everybody else, starting with DeSean Stribling of the Niners. DeSean Stribling still kind of ticks down every week, down to 11/1. Well, yeah, every other day there's a new Niner that gets hurt, so he has to.
5:25
And he, and he continues to play well- [laughs]... in the preseason. God, Niners. Substation. Jordan Tyson going the other direction with his injury, 40/1. Um, you have, again, you have Ja'Darian Price.
5:38
That's the one you hold here. I have Price. I bet him at 9/1. I bet, I mean, th- bet him pretty much at open. Uh, I, I guess he probably s- still be the guy I'd go with here, Gil. This is, this is tough though.
5:50
I'm interested to see how it plays out. You and I have obviously talked about this a lot since the draft. Um, I'm not interested in, in going with Jeremiah Love at 5/1, running back on a really bad team.
6:01
There's a lot of different ways I think that can go south. Uh, Carnell Tate, I, look, m- absolutely could maybe be live if you're a big believer in the Titans. I'm just not quite there yet, uh, on Cam Ward and this team.
6:12
And then Mendoza, like you and I keep saying it, right? Actually, I just, I'm not saying don't bet Fernando Mendoza. What I'm saying is there's no reason to bet Fernando Mendoza now.
6:20
I, I, I, there, there's a chance that he is live in this race, uh, absolutely as being kind of the quarterback here i- in this conversation. But I, there's no rush to make this bet until you know he's gonna start games.
6:33
Jordan Tyson, by the way, I alluded to, he's down to 40 to one. I'm surprised he's not even longer. He's supposed to miss two months. Yeah. That's, that's tough. That's a, uh, you can't bet situation.
6:43
I, and same thing I said about Mendoza I guess goes for Carson Beck. I don't even think Carson Beck completely out of this, but he gotta know he's starting games first.
6:50
Tyson, by the way, pulling a hamstring, right hamstring in practice against the Jaguars. Practice session, joint practice.
6:56
I know if Danny Higgins was out here, he'd be saying, "Watch out for that Jakobi Lane fellow over at Baltimore." Yeah, he'd say that.
7:02
Same sort of thing as what's going on in San Francisco, running out of just healthy and quality bodies to throw the ball to.
7:08
Let's, let's do a heat check on some of these other awards in the National Football League here, as again, we are, uh, we have one more pre-season game in front of us, then we have that dreaded week off. Yeah.
7:18
Ever since they went from four pre-season games to three, there is that awkward week in between. Um, and again, we will try to, uh, we will try to do the mega-pod for week one earlier in the week.
7:31
Usually we do them on Thursdays, but for week one we'll try to do them earlier. Regular season MVP, Josh Allen, Kelly's favorite, six to one. Lamar, eight to one.
7:39
Joe Burrow plus 850, and then you see everybody else double digits starting with Herbert, Mahomes and May all at 10 to one. Yeah, nothing for me here. Man, I, this has been pretty consistent since this opened up.
7:52
I don't know about you, Gil. I, if, if I had to make a bet, it'd probably be Burrow. Just aim for the high-end outcome- Yeah... of what could happen with Cincinnati.
8:02
But man, I, there are too many guys here that I think are absolutely in this race. Well- It could be for the majority of the season...
8:08
this is, it's, it's a tough off-season for me because all of my big conviction has already, like, in a lot of cases, been torpedoed already. Mm.
8:15
So like I would've said a month ago, and I think I did say, Brock Purdy- Brock... 18 to one. Yep, yep. I just, I, you know. And actually, when you were saying it- I can't, like-... he was like 22, 25 to one. Yeah.
8:24
I can't really, I can't really recommend it anymore with all the injuries. You just can't do it. No, you can't. And I think this list is generally right. I agree with you, J- Joe Burrow would be my, would be my shot.
8:34
The other ones, like I've brought him up before, like you could, you could have convinced me with a Caleb Williams this off-season, but not at 12 to one. Nope. If he was 20. Yeah, sure.
8:43
Um, I think- I am, I am going to bet Caleb Williams the way that I played the draft. Sorry, futures draft. Which is I'm gonna go him top, uh, top passing yards for the season at 20 to one. I like that.
8:56
That's how I'll play him. I bet that over po- total points for the Bears, so I like that. Those correlate pretty well. The other ones I wrote down, like [sighs] okay, if you're a Minnesota person,
9:10
Kyler's a fun long shot, but you can't, I don't think you can bet him at 40 to one. I think you need a longer number than that. You don't know if this guy can stay healthy.
9:17
The only one who, the only one who stuck out to me on MVP for right now, considering it, considering like we're pretty positive this guy's going into the season healthy, Bo Nix, 35 to one.
9:28
Like, I'm not sitting here, sitting here saying Bo Nix is the greatest quarterback on the planet, but like you know how good that defense is. That, that team is expected to do very well this season.
9:36
You have a quarterback. If you're, if you're the starting quarterback for the one seed in the AFC- Mm... that goes a long way to possibly winning this award. I'd still go... I, I don't know. I can't get behind it.
9:49
I hear what you're saying, but I, I can't. I, I couldn't pull the trigger on it. I- I'd still bet Burrow today if I had to. Yeah, Burrow. Burrow's the play. Just bringing up names. Burrow's the play.
9:57
And like I said, I, I'll play Caleb, and I'll get this bet in here. I'll play Caleb differently. Like all his overs, top passer in terms of yardage for the season, that's how I'd play it. Offensive player of the year.
10:07
Again, the repository for the best player who isn't a quarterback, according to some of the voters. Jahmyr Gibbs plus 550, Bijan nine to one. Jamaar Chase leads the double digits at 10 to one.
10:21
You got, you got Jamaar, Puka and Justin Jefferson, the three best wide receivers in the National Football League by consensus, right after Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan. And then it's the CMCs and JSNs of the world.
10:35
So I don't know. Here is, you know, our buddy Cleve loves a Nico Collins play at 35 to one. If you're high on the Texans, I think that makes sense. I bet, I bet A.J.
10:47
Brown at, at b- much longer number than this, but 60 to one, 35 to one. If it was... I, I s- know there's 40 still out there. I think A.J.
10:54
Brown's interesting as the alpha go-to wide receiver on a offense with a big arm quarterback. It's gonna be airing it out, but- This is just tough to, to go against Gibbs or Bijan. It's the top of the board, man. Yes.
11:06
Yeah, 'cause the, I mean, the Lions are just open and saying he's going to be the bell cow every which way. I mean, now that, now that David Montgomery is out of the picture.
11:15
I mean, you know what makes- And Bijan is Bijan. I, it j- it, this is tough to overcome for these two guys.
11:19
Y- you know what makes this really tough, Gil, is we could remove those two names and we could be saying something similar.
11:24
We, we, I would still be sitting here saying, "Well, Chase, Puka, Justin Jefferson- That's correct... McCaffrey, that's a tough group to get by at the top." That's correct.
11:31
There's a- But then you're adding two guys on top of them. You are correct. There's a couple tiers of that here. I would agree. There really is. It's tough.
11:37
That's, I, you're either betting top of the board or you're looking long shot, in my opinion. Yeah. Maybe we'll look at some more of these a little later on.
11:43
Wes Reynolds, though, will join us next to talk golf with him, anything else he's betting on. Oh, he's betting. Wes Reynolds next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:52
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13:03
Try it today for just $9.99, or lock in a full year. Save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Guess what, Kelly? We get tweets. Beating the book.
13:16
Oh, speaking of college football, by the way, you know I was talking about Jay Cohen coming on Thursday? Mm-hmm. Dr.
13:21
Bob will come on this year, but he will only do pro football with us 'cause he's not doing college football anymore. So who but who are we having on for college football this year?
13:31
We're doing the old Right Angle Sports releases- Let's go... live releases of plays exclusively on a numbers game. Thursdays or Fridays? Have we settled that? I, you know, I was...
13:41
It's so funny you say that, 'cause I was thinking the whole time Fridays- Yeah... 'cause that's when Bob used to do it. But then I'm like, "Is that the right day to do it?" We got time. Leave it, leave it up to them.
13:48
Yeah, leave it up to them. The, uh- That's the whole, that's the whole put, put it in your bet slip, and then they say go or cancel. The whole thing that Fezzik loves doing. Yeah. Go or cancel.
14:00
Do you think, does, does Fezz remember that was from them? Yes. He, he just enjoys it so much, like he's a seven-year-old kid. No, I know, I know. Yeah.
14:07
But he's been enjoying it so much recently I've been thinking, I think he's forgotten that. Oh. Like, I think- Let me, let me put it this way.
14:12
If anybody were to forget and then decide that it was their own- [laughs] This is-... he's your guy... this is what I'm saying. Yeah. Hey, Florida State plays football this weekend, baby. Let's go. Man. What do we got?
14:23
31-point favorites over New Mexico State. I'm learning this for the first time.
14:27
And, uh, Tim, Tim Murray and Matt Youmans, we're just gonna send them to Hawaii no matter the rivalry game, or no matter the big game of the week. It's, you know- Oh, it's the biggest game of the week, right, Gil?
14:35
Michi- Michigan-Ohio State, send them to Hawaii. Hawaii-Stanford, man. Oh, that's big. I had Stanford last year. That was brutal. It was a brutal loss. Jesse Welch on Twitter, "Fantastic job K. Michael Bidlin.
14:48
Creative way to get, uh, Greg Peterson out there. I need to see that one for sure." Y'all are gonna kill the kid. Corbin- [laughs]... "Morning, guys. Great having Kelly back.
14:56
You guys go together like peanut butter and ladies." I don't know what that means. All right. On another note, it's been just over 10 years since I went to Punta Cana for my grad trip in the middle of July.
15:06
Will never forget the feeling getting off the plane. Pure gross. Yeah, that's the thing, like I always say about it, in, in humidity-ridden places, it's, it's oppressive heat. Uh- And sweat on contact.
15:17
It was, it beat me down. I still prefer that over this oven that we live in out he- out here, but I grew up in it. Bullet Godfrey, "Have you two gentlemen discussed that field goal video?
15:26
Has K- has Kenny fully," I think he means Kelly, "Has Kelly fully recovered from that calf injury?" We showed that when Matt was here on Wednesday.
15:32
We showed the old Primetime Action field goal video with you getting hurt. I, I heard that. Danny, I had to, I had to tell Danny the f- the full, the real story. Oh, now, what's the real story from your perspective?
15:42
I, just, I don't, I don't know. I was just, we were talking about it over the weekend, just the... What, what I do, what I do, I tore something just of being in the shower and looking down behind me- Oh...
15:50
and the whole back of my leg was black from just blood. Ugh, brutal. That was fun. What we, we were amazed though at how much weight you lost. You w- we were startled by it.
16:01
That's, I told Danny, I was like, "I think we shot that, I think we shot that just a couple months before I started on the shot." Wow. So that's about as heavy as I'd ever been.
16:08
John Balduzzi, "I know you're a live music guy. Caught Ed Sheeran in Toronto night three. Highly recommend if you haven't seen him.
16:14
Absolutely, if he's by himself with no band, just laying down chords on a loop and playing and singing over it. Unreal, super talented." My introduction to Ed Sheeran was back when Dr. Bob lived in San Francisco.
16:24
We were at Starbucks, and he was like, "Gil, you gotta listen to this. You gotta listen to this." You know that awkward person who makes you listen- Mm-hmm...
16:28
to music in a public place and you don't really wanna listen to it? Ed Sheeran's super talented though. Bob did that to me.
16:34
P5 Legends, "Gil, my best memory from Nick and Robin Bakay's betting recaps on SportsCenter was Nick's screaming response to frustrated Robin when she asked Nick why he didn't play the under given the deluge of snow in the Pats' 12 to nothing home win versus the Jets on December 7th, 2003.
16:49
'Unders make me nervous.'" [laughs] Nick Bakay, great job on the, uh, on our NFL Futures draft the other day. Great dude, by the way. Great guy.
16:59
Ladies and gentlemen, Wes Reynolds joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at wesreynolds1. That's the number one.
17:05
He comes to us with a, uh, old-school Indiana logo hat right there. Is that what you said, uh- Mm-hmm... is that what that is right there, Wes? Yeah? It is the, uh, block I that they used to, uh, wear in the, uh, 1980s.
17:18
I know it kind of, with the, with the tint, 'cause it's a faded red, looks a little bit orange probably- Yes... on the screen, so I know you were thinking it was, uh, the Fighting Illini. I sure did.
17:26
It is not the, uh, Fighting Illini. It is the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers. Okay. So walk us through your thinking. So Scottie Scheffler wins last week. He wins it going away.
17:38
It's his first win since the American Express. He wins it by eight strokes. And, um, [laughs] so you, you go ahead and bet Wyndham Clark in the without Scottie market. Is that how you, you chose to do it?
17:50
Makes sense, right? Yeah. And, and he was 25 to 1 in the without. He was about in the mid-30s in, in the with Scottie. But I figured, "Hey, look, man, the guy's finally putting it all together at the end of the season.
18:01
Wouldn't shock us. He won by eight shots." You know, we had to win the, uh, uh, the without last week with Si Woo finishing second, uh, by a distant eight strokes.
18:11
So I was like, "Well, I don't know if I wanna really get in front of Scottie here," 'cause maybe he's out to prove a point and just go ahead and lock Player of the Year up amongst all the candidates.
18:20
And Wyndham Clark goes out there and, and leads pretty much gate to wire. Uh, we had a five-stroke lead on, uh, going into Sunday. And then all of a sudden he's tied and makes a couple early bogeys on the front nine.
18:32
It's like, okay, just couldn't be easy. We can't just get a no sweater, right?
18:36
You know, after the, uh, after the up-and-down year that we've had, but Then it comes out after the round, we get a, uh, a text from our Long Shots colleague, Matt Brown, that Scottie is showing a video at the press conference and a tweet about it from Paul Hoadwanik, uh, who writes for pgatour.com.
18:53
Scottie talks about he had, like, hand, foot, and mouth disease. Ugh. Or something, and, and couldn't, and had blisters, like, on his hands every time he hit a shot.
19:01
I was like, man, it would be really nice to know that before [laughs] hand- [laughs] You know, before I, before I bet the, uh, uh, w- without Scottie. And, uh, you know, and he played terrible on Thursday.
19:12
Like, he, there was at one point, there were 50 players, by the way, in that BMW field in, at Bellerive in St. Louis last week. He was dead last at one point. Mm-hmm. On Thursday. Like, when do you ever see that?
19:24
You never see that. So, uh, uh, Scottie never was in contention. Wyndham Clark certainly was.
19:29
And, uh, Wyndham, after leaking a little bit of oil, closed the show on, uh, on, uh, Sunday, and, uh, made three straight birdies, ends up winning by three shots.
19:38
It looks like a comfortable win, but it was anything but if you were watching the telecast. [laughs] Yeah, that'd have been a sweaty final round for you, Wes. I, I had Godderup sort of in the mix.
19:48
God, I love watching him play, man. I really thought he was gonna, uh, catch up to those guys at one point.
19:52
The, Scottie Scheffler, uh, give him a little bit of credit, 'cause I, I, I, I, I've been at a golf tournament where Rory McIlroy withdrew with a tooth- a toothache, so, you know, credit to him.
20:02
But he said, uh, probably should have withdrew, Gil. He, the stubbornness got the best of him, and once he got into it, he said that his, he had blisters on his feet and in, on his th- in your throat. Ugh.
20:15
On your throat, and his hands were in such pain on Thursday, it hurt every time he hit a golf club.
20:21
Yeah, the brief description, hand, foot, and mouth disease, the highly contagious viral illness caused plai- uh, caused painful blisters on his hands, feet, and throat, making it difficult to grip his clubs.
20:31
And is there a more disgustingly named disease- No, not at all... than hand, foot, and mouth disease? This is, this is what we always talk about- Yeah...
20:38
often with betting, golf, and tennis, this is not like the NFL or NBA where official injury reports have to be filed. No, you just find this stuff out on a Sunday. Like you said, Wes.
20:47
I actually did have to go to webmd.com to look up to see if this was, like, actually a real thing. I'm like, what? What are, what are you talking about? Yeah. The- Like you said, information you could have used earlier.
20:56
Yeah. Yes. Um, we hope he gets better. We should probably say that. Um, this week, 30 golfers.
21:02
I know y- you usually save your thoughts and your bets for, for long shots, I'm not asking you to do that, but with such a condensed field here in the final tournament, uh, in Atlanta, what are your pretty, I guess, more succinct thoughts than normal early in a week?
21:17
Well, and it is the same venue, by the way. It is East Lake, uh, Golf Club, uh, down there in Atlanta for the Tour Championship. And you're right, just the final 30 in the FedEx Cup points, uh, make this thing.
21:28
And it's usually been class players that, that, that win this thing. Uh, just looking, uh, down the list here, previous winners.
21:34
Scottie Scheffler actually has not won here at East Lake, but he's finished second twice and third and fourth the last two years. But Rory McIlroy has won here. Xander Schauffele has won here.
21:45
Uh, uh, a lot of, uh, great- Collin Morikawa won here in 2024. So, you know, it's usually gonna be higher end because there really isn't much movement that you could do in the point standings necessarily, uh, here.
21:58
So it's only gonna be one of a couple guys that actually win the FedEx Cup. We got there with Tommy Fleetwood, uh, finally getting his first win on American soil last year.
22:07
But, uh, look, I, I, I think there's a lot to play for this week. There's actually a lot more intrigue around this event, even without the, uh, starting strokes.
22:16
If you remember, they did the 10 under par if you're the points leader, and then if you're 30 if you're even- Mm-hmm... par to start. I didn't like that format.
22:23
It was confusing, even though it made the bet, the FedEx Cup market much easier to bet.
22:28
But I think this year you've got a lot of intrigue 'cause you do not have a definitive, I think, "Hey, this guy's gonna be the PGA Tour Player of the Year."
22:36
There's probably about four or five guys that are, that are candidates for it. Amongst them, Scottie, certainly Wyndham Clark, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Godderup.
22:44
You may get the winner of this event goes ahead and wins the player of the year. So there's actually a little bit more intrigue than there usually is. Yeah. That part's really cool. I, I mean, it was, I, it would've been
22:56
Scottie Scheffler probably for me, We- Wes, before last week. I don't really know how you can argue with, with Wyndham Clark right now. I mean, he has three wins, and one of them is a major.
23:05
So yeah, [laughs] I'm with you, man. This is coming down to the final week. Scheffler plus 320 to win, Rory plus 850, and then Ludvig Åberg at 14 to 1, leading the rest of the way.
23:15
Wes has, uh, some bets, including, you ready for this? Wes Reynolds has a soccer play coming up. Let's go. We got soccer action coming up here. He's got it next on a Numbers Game. VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:27
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. From game-used apparel to autographs and trading cards from your favorite University of Hawaii student athletes, Rainbow Authentics has you covered.
23:45
Plus they have custom gear so you look your best every game day. Capture the moment, own a piece of history, support Hawaii athletics.
23:51
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23:58
Shop now at rainbowauthentics.com and bring home a real piece of the action. How about that, Kelly? You got any apparel? That's awesome. Yeah. A, uh- Good on them.
24:09
We will have Tim and Matt out there on Wednesday, I believe I saw in Bill's email this morning. I do believe that is correct, yes. Yeah. So Wednesday night, live from Hawaii. A tradition unlike any other, I'd say.
24:21
[laughs] That's what I was gonna say, a tradition unlike any other. Wes Reynolds joins us now, kind enough for a, uh, to join us for a second segment, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
24:29
Again, Wes Reynolds won i- the number one at the end of Wes Reynolds. Wes, I, I went to break by saying, uh, you have a soccer pick, the rare Wes Reynolds soccer play. What do you have today?
24:40
I do, uh, but you were mentioning Rainbow Authentics. I hope that they sell, like, the old Kelly green Hawaii jerseys. Oh, yeah.
24:46
That was my favorite Hawaii look, the Hawaii Rainbows, as they were known, uh, when we were young lads. Mm-hmm. That, where they had the white helmets and the white pants, Kelly green jerseys.
24:55
So that retro apparel, that'd be a good place to go get it. But, uh, uh, going to the pitch, uh, over there at Craven Cottage, uh, in England, uh, we have Chelsea and Fulham to wrap up, uh, EPL fixture week one.
25:08
And, uh, I'm gonna go with Chelsea on the three-way line. Very small favorite, somewhere minus 105 to minus 110-ish is what I've seen out there in the market.
25:17
Uh, Xabi Alonso, uh, the legendary player, takes over as manager for Chelsea. So, uh, uh, Fulham was, like, kind of a upper-level mid-table team last year, so it'll be a tough match. It's on the road, after all.
25:31
But, uh, I like Chelsea here to get a win, to start the, uh, Xabi Alonso era on the right track here. Uh, you know, Chelsea fell off at least a little bit.
25:41
Certainly, been, hadn't been as precipitous as Tottenham, where they were, like, a near bottom team last year, and they looked it on Saturday, by the way, against, uh, up against Brentford. But
25:51
I'm gonna go, I'm, I'm gonna follow the EPL a little bit more this year. Like, I kinda got in and out of soccer over the last few years, but the World Cup happened over the summer. So I was like, "You know what?
26:01
I'm gonna pick maybe one or two leagues to follow," because you can't possibly follow all of them. Mm-hmm.
26:05
Like, if you go to any one of your odds screens, if you go to, like, OddsLogic or Don Best or whatever screen you use, and there's, like, 20 different leagues, it's like, "Oh my God, this is so overwhelming."
26:15
Like, you can't possibly do that. So I'm gonna follow the Premiership, dabbled a little bit this weekend just to kinda scratch the itch. So we'll go Chelsea to get a win in the Alonso era to start it out one and O.
26:27
Yeah, I'm glad you clarified that because I, I don't remember associating you with the Premier League or soccer in general, but you, you are, you just sort of explained it.
26:35
This is a step up for you, and you were, you're putting a- Well, I, I have bet it in years past, and then I kinda got out of it. Yeah. You know? A- a- and some- sometimes that happens.
26:43
Like, I, I know a lot of bettors, as do you guys, uh, that get out of baseball a little bit. You know?
26:49
Like, "I'm not really following baseball," or, "I don't have time for it," or, "It's such a grind throughout the spring and the summer," and then they get back into it. So that's kinda what I'm doing here.
26:59
I- Yeah, I remember Wes hopping- Yeah, a little bit... hopping in and out over the years. I could, I could relate to the baseball thing, man. Yeah.
27:04
I mean, there were, there were summers where I spent so, an inordinate amount of time just in front of a screen watching baseball and betting baseball, and I remember even thinking at that time, "This is not a proper way to spend my life.
27:17
This is not a proper way to spend your time on earth." And so I, I don't miss that. Yeah. But, and, and you do.
27:21
You shift into, you, you, you handle baseball differently, uh, as we have on this show with, with the baseballs. Not everybody can be Mark Borchardt and grind that 24/7, 365. It's amazing. I'm like, "How do you do it?"
27:32
'Cause I like baseball, too- Yeah... but it's like, it even gets too much for me. I'm like, "Oh my God." So- [laughs] You gotta follow all the transactions and all of that. Yeah.
27:40
Though, speaking of which, you do have one baseball play for us today. I do, and you know what? Let's enthusiastically back a team that lost 19 to two yesterday. [laughs] Yeah.
27:50
That being the Seattle Mariners, as they got absolutely bombed by the Cubs, uh, out there at T-Mobile Park.
27:57
But I'm gonna go with them today 'cause you're getting a team now that's arguably the hottest team in baseball, right? The Philadelphia Phillies, they've won nine in a row. They were down four-nothing.
28:05
It cost me a wager, actually, yesterday. Gotta talk about the losers, too. Had the under in Philly and St. Louis, uh, four-nothing.
28:12
Uh, Riley O'Brien gives up a lead-off double, then gets two outs, and then six runs later blows the save [laughs]. Riley O'Brien's been terrific for the Cards this year. And the Phillies get a win, continue that streak.
28:25
Now you gotta go all the way across the country with no rest. It's Zach Wheeler on the mound. Zach Wheeler usually a steady Eddie, too, always gives you six innings.
28:33
But Zach Wheeler has been a little iffy if you look at the numbers in, in his last few starts. He's really been getting in jams. It's been difficulty for him to get 18 outs. Usually it's, like, easy.
28:44
It's just a n- it's just an average night's work. But he's going out there, facing Logan Gilbert with Seattle.
28:50
Seattle, by the way, did not really use a ton, even though they used four relievers, they used their back-end relievers yesterday because they didn't change the game.
28:58
And, and, uh, Dan Wilson actually did something smart, which is sometimes rare when how he manages his, uh, pitching staff. But he used his back-end relievers yesterday as they were getting bombed by the Cubs.
29:08
So relatively fresh bullpen considering you don't have a day off, so, uh, I'm going with the Seattle Mariners. I saw, I think, as high as, like, plus 108. Uh, I think they end the Phillies' streak tonight at nine wins.
29:21
Uh, the AL West, I mentioned earlier, every team in the AL West has a losing record. Every team in the AL West has a negative run differential. The Seattle Mariners' run differential on the season is minus 61.
29:32
Trivia question for both of you, do you know what their run differential is in the month of August? Season long run differential, minus 61. August run differential? Minus 92. Minus 62. Oh, man. Wow. Yeah.
29:46
They've been a big over team, too, this month, uh, uh, surprisingly enough, 'cause, 'cause that's kind of a, a pitcher-friendly ballpark they play in up at T-Mobile Park, and that surprised me.
29:56
I was kind of looking, scrolling down that this morning. I think it was John Ewing at BetMGM that, that keeps track of that, that they've been, like, a major over team this month, which really surprised me.
30:06
All right, I'm gonna ask you a couple football questions, both college and pro here. Same sort of question, um, and I'll ask it this way.
30:13
In both college and pro, let's start with college, what is the team, what do you think is the most outlying team that gets the furthest in the college football playoff this year? And I'll ask the same thing for the NFL.
30:25
What is the, what is the NFL team that is not among the usual suspects that you think s- that gets the furthest in the NFL playoffs, either AFC or NFC? That's a, that's a good question. Uh, I, I'll start with college.
30:39
Uh- And, and you know, this is sure to go awry because it was just like last year when they had a ton of expectations.
30:46
They were, like, third or fourth in the country in the polls, and they end up firing their coach mid-season. I wanna say Penn State.
30:52
I think that they're gonna be the team that gets that fourth Big Ten spot because we look at the big three, it sounds absurd to say the big three is Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana.
31:01
[laughs] And not Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State like it had been for about two and a half decades. But I think Penn State gets that fourth spot. I like what they have.
31:11
I, I like the fact that they bring in Matt Campbell from Iowa State, who wasn't the first choice, but may end up being the best choice.
31:18
24 transfers come in from, uh, Iowa State, so it's like the James Madison and Kurt Signetti pipeline to Indiana kind of on steroids, right?
31:25
Uh, so they're bringing a team that, by the way, the core of that team that they bring in won 11 games two years ago and made the Big 12 title game.
31:33
So Penn State is a team maybe, I think, that not only gets in kind of at the back end, but could win that first weekend. Uh, but, but I think ultimately, I don't think you're gonna get, like, some Cinderella.
31:44
It's gonna be, you know, Notre Dame, Oregon, Indiana, uh, uh, Georgia. It's gonna be, I think, those that are going the deepest. But I do think Penn State maybe can win a game getting to the, uh, playoff.
31:56
And then in the NFL... N- NF- NFL is hard because the team that I picked for the Super Bowl was the Houston Texans, and now they have, like, nobody at receiver.
32:06
[laughs] Now they're trying to search the, uh, the waiver wire just to get some bodies out there for C.J. Stroud to throw to. So I'm going to say...
32:18
And that, that is a very hard question to do, uh- I, I'll give you another second, Wes, 'cause you bring, you bring up Houston. All of a sudden, to me, Gil, they've become the buzziest team of the off-season.
32:26
Oh, for sure. We- Wes is right about the wide receiver situation, but the amount of people that I respect, too. It's not just the amount of people in general.
32:33
Amount of people that I respect that I've heard say the Houston Texans division, AFC, Super Bowl, what- i- it's become a little mind-blowing.
32:42
They are definitely, at least in terms of anecdotally on this show, the Texans have gotten more love than I think any other team this off-season. Let us, let us mark that down. Mm-hmm.
32:51
For, for the, for the NFC, I guess I'll say the 49ers because they're not the favorite, right? Yeah. They're not the favorite in the West this year. Of course, there's Seattle returning, uh, from winning the Super Bowl.
33:01
The Rams, everybody loves the Rams, and for good reason. So I don't wanna say the 49ers are a total off-the-radar team. Like, they're still less than 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. But I like this team.
33:12
If they stay injury-free, and we've seen it, guys, the years that they lose a lot of games to injuries, it's a lost season.
33:18
And then they're healthy, it seems like it's every other year, right, with Kyle Shanahan's bunch. Every other year they're healthy. And when they're healthy, they're still one of the better teams in the league.
33:27
And, uh, J- uh, George Kittle got removed from the, uh, PUP list yesterday, so he's back, so that certainly helps, uh, Brock Purdy and their fortunes. Uh, I like the 49ers this year.
33:37
I, I think that they kinda have lower expectations and might sneak up on, uh, some of these elite teams. I like both of those answers. Uh, both of those answers, 'cause they're not, they're not outlandish, and they're...
33:48
They, they qualify. Judges accept both because the, neither is considered to be top tier, um, Penn State nor the Niners, though Niners fans will disagree with that.
33:56
But yes, a, a notch below the Seahawks and the Rams consensus wise. By the way, you brought up Michigan at one point, dude.
34:02
This has nothing to do with, uh, football here, Wes, but did you hear, uh, first semester freshman pass/fail no longer grades? What do you think about that? [laughs] Gotta keep the players eligible, I guess.
34:14
[laughs] Uh, so, uh- Whole student body. I don't think I would've made it through- Yes... the first year at Florida State. Oh, no. That would be ugly. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it. Thank you.
34:23
The great Wes Reynolds, [clears throat] pardon me, right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:27
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on Un Partido de Numeros. Sí.
34:45
For the Spanish-speaking folks out there. It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Numbers Game, for those of you who, uh, speak the, uh, the King's English.
34:53
By the way, of course, uh, Wes referring, he wasn't referring to, uh, every Texans receiver. Nico Collins is okay. He was mainly referring to Jaden Higgins. Yeah. Season-ending injury.
35:03
But that- Which, which came down last week. That was another one where they're like Nico, they had to, like... They, I don't think they wanted to hold him out of that game. They kinda had to because of- Yeah...
35:11
uh, the struggling health of their roo- their wide receiver room. W- which, which we just talked about with, uh, Jadarian Price- Right... with the Seahawks and the running back room. I love the room stuff. The rooms.
35:20
Um, did you... Before we get to basketball, do you wanna look at some more of these NFL awards real quick? Yeah, for sure. For sure. Oh, yeah, I do.
35:26
I also wanna bring up the most shocking sports result from the weekend that we haven't talked about yet. Oh. You know where I'm going with this. I do not.
35:33
Okay, we were on a text message at the end of last week where like, like Will Hill's Rutgers Big Ten Conference tournament call. Oh, yes. I got talked into a bet in roughly 17 seconds.
35:43
Do you know what I'm talking about yet? I do not. Paul Carr texted over his plays. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. And I know we went over this on Friday, so I didn't get to hear him talk about this. Yeah.
35:50
But one of his plays, I was like, "You're telling me there's a team that is so bad- [laughs] Yes... that I'm gonna bet them at plus 120 to finish DFL dead last for the whole season?" Yeah.
36:01
Hull City goes out and beats Man United two-nil- Two-nil... on Saturday. Two-nil. Crazy. He, he did hit his other two plays, I believe. I'm sure he did. I was d- Yeah... I was dying laughing Saturday afternoon. Oh.
36:12
I'm like, "I've never heard of this, this team. I've never heard of this, this city, any players on it." Tidy two-nil win. Yeah. Welcome to the Premier League, Hull City.
36:22
Tony Farmer do anything this weekend I should know about? Eh, no, no, nothing too crazy. Defensive Player of the Year. Myles Garrett. This is us- this is the usual suspects category. Yeah. Myles G- uh, there's a...
36:32
To me, there's a clear bet here. Myles Garrett +450, Will Anderson Jr. 7 to 1, Aidan Hutchinson +850, Max Crosby 12 to 1. And to me, the bet is Nick Benito 14 to 1. Don't hate it.
36:46
Dude is just, like, let's, let's stop with the, let's stop with him not being as big a name as those other guys. He is just that good. I, I... To me, that's the play. 14 to 1, Nick Benito.
36:59
In fact, I may make that play here today. Man, remember I made- I gotta do the Kelly Bill and bets I need to make list. There you, start making a list, Gil. You're gonna forget these. They're gonna get away from you.
37:08
Make a list. These numbers are gonna get worse. I do think, you know what? You said usual suspects. I think the list is a little shorter this year, though. It is, 'cause, 'cause Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt have, uh, T.J.
37:18
Watt have drifted a little bit. Ye- yes, I would agree with both those. Okay, Garrett live, right? Will Anderson live. Uh, Aidan Hutchinson live. Like, Max Crosby, live, but I struggle to get there on 12 to 1.
37:29
I would absolutely bet Benito over him. And then, yeah, Bosa, Watt, Burns you could make a case for. I think Bosa, Watt verse little bit reaches. I know Danny bet Trey Hendrickson at, like, 40 to 1.
37:43
I liked that bet at that number. 25 to 1 feels a little short on him. I think everybody who mispronounces the word versus by saying verse now should ha- should be required to call him Jared Versus. Jared Versus? Yes.
37:54
I'll, I'll do that for you this year. Okay. Jared Versus.
37:57
I, I, DeNeil Hunter being this long, considering how many sacks he finished with a year ago- Well- I know he plays op, uh, you know, on the same team as Will Anderson, but- You could say that about a lot of these guys.
38:07
Jalen Carter, Abdul Carter. Like, I, I- Yeah... I get it, but I don't know. I just think Beni- I think Benito is the guy. You're gonna bet this? I think I am. Okay. 14 to 1.
38:19
Best def- I mean, with apologies to Patrick Surtain, best defensive player on what is arguably one of the top three defenses in the NFL.
38:25
I, I will not have a bet on this heading into the season, but I'll keep playing that same game. If I had to make one bet right now, I actually think I'd be with you on Benito. Okay. Um, any more of these?
38:35
Yeah, I think there's more. Yeah, we got a couple. Just he, he, he check on these. Um, let's go to, what's next? Coach of the Year? What are we doing? Yeah, we'll do Coach of the Year. Coach of the Year. Who you got?
38:43
Coach of the Year- Free for all, by the way... at the top- Yeah... Harbaugh. Which- Makes a lot of sense to me. Which? John? Yeah, John. Okay. John Harbaugh, six to one. [laughs] I thought you were s- giving a sentence.
38:57
[laughs] I'm like, which? Yes. Which makes a lot of sense. [laughs] Uh, Jo- which makes a lot of sense. John, John Harbaugh, six to one. Jesse Minter- Oh, man... Jesse Minter, from which John came- [laughs]...
39:08
with the Ravens, 10 to one. Robert Saleh, Titans, 10 to one. Kellen Moore, 12 to one, Saints. Ben Johnson- Whoa, he's gotten shorter... Ben Johnson of the, uh, of the Bears, 12 to one.
39:20
Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys, 15 to one. Clint Kubiak, 15 to one. And then Todd Monken of the Browns, we gave him a lot of juice this morning, 17 to one.
39:29
Juice because in case you missed it, Sean Watson named the starter of the Cleveland Browns. So many new c- uh, co- That Ben Johnson number got shorter, right?
39:38
21 new offensive coordinators, but man, there's a lot of new c- new coaches in new places as well, new head coaches. I don't know. I mean, w- John Har- why is...
39:48
I, listen, I have too much inside Ravens camp to, to love John Harbaugh, so I'm not betting- Mm-hmm... I'm not betting him here. Uh, look, he's the one who would check all the, all the Cleve TA boxes, right? Uh-huh.
40:02
If he turn, if this team gets turned around and wins 9, 10 games, pushes a playoff, he makes a ton of sense. I get it with how w- how the last couple years has, have gone in Baltimore.
40:13
I think, I think that bar is pretty high. But I think Jesse Minter's live. I, I really like Minter. So I, 10 to one, I get him. I don't know.
40:21
I, wouldn't be a bet for me, but he's i- i- he's a guy taking over for a good team that I do actually think is still live. It's just hard. We talk about this every year.
40:29
It's hard to be on a really good team and expe- to make a case for these guys to win. I don't believe enough in the Titans or the Saints to have, to make that big a turnarounds to get on Saleh or Moore.
40:39
Nor the Raiders with Clint Kubiak. Correct. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. And I, man, I would be going, if I had to ma- if I had to make a bet today, Gil, it'd be much further down the list. Kevin Stefanski, 20 to 1.
40:49
Can he w- can I give him three? Sure. Bro, I, I brought that up a couple weeks ago. Stefanski, O'Connell, or
40:57
why not a guy who did not win his division last year, who I just said last segment's been getting a whole lot of love that's not even listed on here. DeMeco Ryans, 35 to 1.
41:06
I mean, if we're gonna h- have all these guys talk about how good the Texans are gonna be. Except the, the win total stipulation. Absolutely, but if they win, like, the one seed. Yeah.
41:14
Comeback Player of the Year, Kelly's favorite. Patrick Mahomes, plus 185. Jayden, plus 450. Kyler Murray, six to one. Aaron Donald, the fly in the ointment, nine to one. Look at all these guys.
41:30
Now, Aaron Donald, by Comeback Player of the Year rules, does qualify here, correct? He does. He does. By our internal rules, and also Aaron Shot's rules, personal rules- Yeah... he, he applies. Uh. Brad Warner, 25 to 1.
41:43
I don't really care this. Okay, so this is, tell me, Aaron Donald, nine to one here. Yeah. With, with who else he's competing with, what he'd have to put up statistically would be very impressive, right?
41:56
I'm playing a game with you right now. Yeah. It, he, he would have to have a damn impressive season. Damn impressive. Why, what are his odds for, for Defensive Player of the Year?
42:05
I mean, if you're, all I'm, all I'm, all I'm trying to say is if you're gonna bet him at nine to one in this market, you're sprinkling a little on whatever absurd odds you could find on Defensive Player of the Year.
42:14
Do we, do we have an official announcement that he's playing yet? No. It, it would be- No... sh- it would be shocking if he wasn't going to play now. Yes, I agree. Yeah.
42:21
The, a- I still, I still stand by, I think you could bet, I think you could bet Mahomes, Daniels, Kyler Murray, and Daniel Jones.
42:27
Bet them all right now, call it a day, and you're picking up a winner at the end of the year. Which are your, which are the ones? Mahomes? All four quarterbacks. All four quarterbacks.
42:32
Mahomes, Daniels, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones. You could bet them all right now. Yeah. See who's healthy at the end of the year. One of those guys is likely winning. And Mike is out for at least the first four games,
42:42
which is why he's down to 16 to 1. See, he's another one. We've talked about him with Defensive Player of the Year before. He's, like, 50 to 1. 16 to 1 here. You're not betting either one of those now, right?
42:51
Why would you bet him now? 'Cause you might as well wait. He's not gonna b- start the season. Th- the price is only gonna get longer. But he's another guy I...
42:58
Instead of 16 to 1 here, I'd rather bet him 50 to 1 in Defensive Player of the Year. Um- Whenever he comes back, he's gonna have to do enough to push the rest of these guys around.
43:09
We didn't do Offensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Yeah, we did Ro- Well, we did offense... Offensive a little bit. We didn't do defense. Jarryd Price, yeah. Yeah.
43:16
Is there anything in defense you wanna even take a stab at? No. No, I alway- No... I always think one of the pass rushers, but it's too early for me to, for me to know, and then we'll price correct.
43:24
That, that's the one that, I don't know. I mean, some people think Rub- some people have convinced themselves that Reuben Bain Jr. is gonna be the guy, plus 450, he's the short shot.
43:31
But if there was ever a, if there was ever a ca- a category that I don't think you should play before the season starts, this is probably it. I think I'm, yeah, coming around to that s- sa- side with you, man.
43:43
[laughs] I don't really know the next time I'm gonna have a Defensive Rookie of the Year bet before- Yeah... the season. Um, burned much in the past? Is that what I'm getting from you, no? No, not really.
43:51
I just, I think it's- It's just too vague... it's too vague. It's too vague. I, I, I, I would only, I would only entertain a pass rusher. A- and these days it's, there's two or three- Yeah... or four or five of them.
44:00
Yeah. Guys in the secondary rarely win. Um- Well, and I know Danny hit last year, but I'm not, I'm not taking a middle linebacker. It's, you know, e- that's not something I'm gonna be looking for very often. NBA trades.
44:12
Klay to Miami, Peyton Watson to Cleveland. Do either of those move the needle for you? They're interesting. They're interesting, absolutely. I mean, th- I don't think any shocker for Klay being added to Miami.
44:24
They need to continue to add shooting. Um, Peyton Watson, I mean, the bigger story there to me is just Denver botching that.
44:32
Uh, it just, just, not, not being able to keep him, not willing to spend the money to make this work. And, and in my opinion, basically waving the white flag on the Nikola Jokic era.
44:42
Like, that, that's really what it feels. A- that's what the past year has felt like for Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, is they have seen their window come and go. It has, it has been closed. Wow. Um- Wow...
44:52
so I'm interested to see what happens down the line with him. I think on the East right now, though, the only one that's not official is this guy named Kawhi Leonard- [laughs]... to the Toronto Raptors. [laughs] Yeah.
45:03
So I, I mean, I think that's the most interesting one to keep your eye out for right now. A- and see if any of these books begin to drift.
45:09
I don't think they will, but- Has, has Pablo Torre single-handedly kept that from happening thus far? Did he have a hand in it at all? Uh, sure. Th- the NBA's got their own problems to figure out.
45:21
Adam Burke and more next.
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