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Aug 24, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 24, 2026 | Hour 3
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45:22
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin back in his rightful position this week. Yeah.
0:30
Chillen. Distracted by, I believe, though, it's Director, Director Darnell Glenn dancing in the back. Let's, let's quite dance. Is he dancing? Yeah, he's dancing.
0:39
I didn't bring him his Fiji water today, so he's a little- Oh, great... you know. How's he supposed to concentrate? I don't know. I don't know.
0:45
I just- How's anybody supposed to work around here without you bringing w- Fiji water? [laughs] I literally carry the man's water. [laughs] 3Jac- 3JacH3131, "Gil, where will Fezzik get his college plays if Dr.
0:55
Bob is only capping the NFL?" Hey, wait a minute. Uh, Shrek, "Not sure there's been enough coverage of the Woodland top on hole number nine. WTF was that? He was surging with a real chance to chase down Clark.
1:09
Any thoughts from Wes? What a choke job that was." Sorry I missed that, uh, when Wes was on. You see that Woodland top of the ball on the ninth? Yeah, yeah, Gary. Ninth. Gary, uh, I mean, it's Gary Woodland.
1:17
You know, e- there's not many people who love Gary Woodland more than me. That's correct. There are parts of his game that he struggles with. Uh, on occasion, some stuff can happen like that.
1:25
If Josh Allen fought Gary Woodland in a war, which side would you fight for? Josh Allen. Jesse Welch, "Sick. Right Angle Sports coming back to a numbers game? Let's go." Yes, they are.
1:40
We don't know who, though, from Right Angle Sports. Do you know Erling Haaland played in a soccer game this weekend and did not score a goal? Really? How crazy is that?
1:48
Scott Cupp, "Wife just had HFM disease, hand, foot, and mouth disease. She said it was the worst pain ever. Still has blisters three weeks later." Wow. The funniest part of the Scotty comments- Wow.
2:01
Hope your wife, hope your wife feels better, man... to me. Yes. Yeah, seriously. It, the, the funniest part of the Scotty comments were he, he's detailing this, right?
2:08
"I should have withdrew probably and just concentrated on the Tour Championship. I was stubborn." You know, really, he kind of goes into, like, Scotty, who is so critical of himself, right?
2:17
He k- like, halfway through, he's like, "You know, but then I started playing, like, okay, and I kind of got in a groove, so just finished it out." [laughs] It's all right. Uh, here's a great question from James Sod.
2:28
We c- we could do an hour on this. "Do we have a number on Watson for Comeback Player of the Year? Asking for a friend and for Adam Berg." Okay, this is a great question. Yeah, we, we answered this two years ago, right?
2:42
Yes, we answered it two years ago. What number would you require to make that wager? I- in all seriousness? Yes. 1,500 to one. Uh, something like that. He's 40 to 1, by the way. Mm-hmm. That's not long enough. No.
2:59
Because for him to win Comeback Player of the Year, two things must happen. One, he's got to be unbelievable on the field. That's the first massive hurdle.
3:10
The second hurdle, which is as high, is then you've got to get the m- [laughs] then you've got to get 50 NFL voters collectively to decide that they're okay giving him this award. Right. Yeah.
3:28
Good luck. I would rather bet Joe Alt at 100 to 1. Than Deshaun at 40 to 1. I would rather bet J.K. Dobbins at 100 to 1.
3:42
I'd rather bet Brandon Aiyuk, and I don't really know if he's playing football- I don't believe... where he's, what he's- Yeah... what he's really coming back from.
3:49
I, I just don't think there's, it's, it's the last part of what you s- the idea that, that voters are gonna sit down and decide to award that person anything.
3:59
'Cause you know what they have to deal with also, just as human beings, if, if let's say he ends up, let's say this, let's say all of that happened. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's say he had a great season. Right.
4:06
He ends up winning Comeback Player of the Year, and then people are with their pitchforks out, right? Mm-hmm. And, and their torches or whatever the, they spread these days.
4:12
Well, has that, has that happened with any voters this off-season at all? They're, they're gonna be like, "Uh, who voted for this guy?" Exactly. And you're gonna get- It is w-... told on. Mm-hmm.
4:23
And then you're gonna have to live with that. Yeah. So yeah, it's not happening. Yeah, I mean, it would have to be, it would have to be, so it, it would have to be everything you just laid out- Yeah...
4:31
and whoever's second isn't even close. Right. 'Cause if there's anybody close, you're gonna be like, "I'm just gonna go with that other good person." 40 to 1 is an awful number. Yeah. Really.
4:41
What's more likely, that he plays, that he, that he's still starting in game four or that? That he's still- I mean, or, or, or that he's out, that he's benched, I should say,
4:50
for game four or that, and I would say he's benched for game four. Yeah. Yeah. And one more from, uh- It's also more, more likely, though, that he, he plays every game of the season, then wins that award. Yes.
5:01
[laughs] One more from Torched. He's the one who put this ad on your panties. He said, "I'm, uh, I'm in on the Benito bet. Just," uh, he said, "Check Calci if you got it, 18 to 1 available." I like it.
5:12
Yeah, that's pretty good. Um, what about the Kawhi trade? Let's close that open-ended comment. What do you think the Kawhi deal is at this point?
5:21
I mean, I would assume it's all happening here at some point, but oh boy, does the NBA have a lot to work out. Um, really, really has not been a good look couple weeks for the NBA, or couple months or a year now.
5:33
I, I mean, look, I'm very interested in how that Toronto team stacks up, though, in the Eastern Conference. It's just, I think it's, we've talked about, a lot ab- about this with different NFL teams.
5:42
How do you bet a team like Toronto in that conference with a player like Kawhi Leonard? And I guess I would compare it, this is gonna be a little wonky of a comparison, but, like, Cincinnati Bengals.
5:54
I don't really care about going over their win total. I, uh, I don't really care about betting over win total with the Toronto Raptors.
6:00
If they're gonna play well and everything's gonna click and these guys are actually gonna stay healthy, then I think this is a true contender and I'm looking more at them in the Eastern Conference, uh, market like a 10 to 1.
6:11
I would say the same thing about Cincinnati. I'm not really interested in betting over win total on the Cincinnati Bengals. If everybody stays healthy, I think they're a team b- better...
6:19
Your, your better bet is on a high-end outcome of them winning the AFC or getting the AFC one seed or something like that. August 24th is today. Do you believe this is the correct pecking order in the Eastern Conference?
6:30
Defending champion Knicks one. Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Maxey unbeaten. Sixers second. Jayson Tatum, Celtics third. Cade Cunningham, Pistons four. Donovan Mitchell, Cavs five.
6:47
Giannis, Heat six. Kawhi, question mark, Raptors seven. Tyrese Haliburton returned to Pacers eight. Not to, not for, to win the Eastern Conference.
6:59
If we're talking about most wins- Just, just giving regular season standings... Yeah, regular season standings? Yeah, yeah. Th- th- this is a pretty good order. I think so, too. You know how I feel.
7:08
Like, I bet under win total on the Detroit Pistons. I think there is going to be certain regression from that team this year. I don't think they added enough in the off season.
7:15
Uh, and I, w- I, I think with the other teams getting better, it's gonna be very hard to ask them to be the one seed. I think the Cavs, once again, will have a very good regular season team. Yeah, as always.
7:25
Do, do I believe in them in the playoffs? No. And I think it's a little bit oppo when we talk about the Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors.
7:31
I, I could see them struggling a little bit during the regular season and being much, much greater contenders once they get into the playoffs.
7:38
The other thing when I look at these Eastern Conference things, I look at the Hornets and I'm like, "What did you guys do?" What did you do? What did you, what did you do? What did you, what did you do?
7:46
I mean, there's also a chance, uh, you know, glad you brought up our favorite division in all of sports, uh- Ah, South-... on this show... the Southeast Division. Southeast Division of the NBA.
7:55
I mean, look, there's also a chance though, the Hornets, you're laughing about, like, a- they're probably still a little mispriced. Like, which, it's LaMelo Ball- Probably a little low... out, like that's- Yeah...
8:02
I think that team is still under another year of Charles Lee. Another t- a, a team that's going to get a, a little bit better. Maybe.
8:10
Maybe not in the w- win-loss win- uh, columns because of LaMelo being gone, but overall, those young guys continuing to grow.
8:16
And you know what I brought up [laughs] you remember, you might, might remember me bringing this up during the playoffs, that it was a team I was interested on betting over their win total, but then so much, so much happened in this conference, I'm kinda out on them.
8:28
But a, a year ago, everybody was sitting here talking up the Orlando Magic and how good they were going to be.
8:35
I mean, we, we, we were like the third shortest odds in the Eastern Conference, I think, heading into the season. Now they're all the way at 28 to 1 with not huge, huge, huge changes on their roster.
8:45
I think you could make a case over their win total. I bet Bulls over their win total. Forgot about that. That is one that wa- that was pretty low. I thought it was way too low.
8:54
I like the, I like the team they've assembled there. James Fessler. Let's talk about something that's actually present day.
9:00
He says, "Yes, the AL West is terrible, but if the Rangers sweep the White Sox this week, Texas goes from the last wild card to just a half game out of the number two seed. [laughs] Pete Rozelle would love this race."
9:08
Yeah. Pete Rozelle's dream of parity realized in the horrific American League, and certainly the even more horrific American League West.
9:17
But, uh, as far as, like, the wild card races right now, can we just pop up the wild card standings? 'Cause a lot of people have make-miss playoff bets.
9:23
Um, in the American League specifically, this is the wild card race. 'Cause right now the Yankees are three games behind the Rays in the East. I mean, that tightened up for sure.
9:32
Red Sox comfortably as the number one wild card. Now you have, like if the playoffs were to start today, which again they don't, but the Guardians and Rangers would be your two and three wild cards at 65 and 66.
9:44
The Rangers would lose the tiebreaker to the Astros just today again, if the playoffs were to start today.
9:48
And then there's these other teams, and it's the other teams that I wanna focus on, [laughs] focus on because- They're tied for third, right? Yankees, Yankees the first wild card, right? Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah.
9:57
Tied for third. Pardon me. Guardians, Rangers. That's right.
10:00
Um, but the other three teams are, like, so, they're, they're so close to being in, and I'm not su- Like, I think, I think there are times when people say, okay, the Blue Jays, right?
10:11
Blue Jays who lost the World Series in game seven last year. They're 64 and 68, yet they're only a game and a half out of the third wild card. And then you have the Twins and the Orioles.
10:21
The Orioles we've had a lot of people throughout the course of the year, even before the season starts, say, "Hey, look, I, I think the Orioles," and well, the Orioles are 63 and 68, and they're only [laughs] two games out of a wild card position.
10:33
The other team that's the, the- [laughs]... to me the most hilarious is the Twins because I don't remember anybody coming on at any point- No...
10:39
and saying the Twins are a playoff team, and yet they too are only two games out of a wild card position at the horrific 63 and 68 mark.
10:48
By the way, the Tigers not even pictured anymore, and the Tigers have a third-best run differential in the American League.
10:55
Uh, so Gil, you're telling me my bets before the season on Orioles to win the AL East and Orioles over their win total were the incorrect bets- That's correct...
11:03
and I should have looked at to make the playoffs if anything? Uh, that's, that's how we- [laughs] At least that's how the cookie is crumbling to answer your question. Oh, man.
11:11
But- And just, and look, that last note that I just, that I just said. The third-best run differential in the American League- Crazy... belongs to the 61 and 69 Detroit Tigers. That's how unbelievable this is.
11:26
Yankees and Red Sox by far are the best run differentials. Everybody got their- And neither of them is winning a division.
11:32
[upbeat music] The, the, the three division winners, leaders I should say at this moment, in the American League. Plus 44, that's the Rays. Plus 43, the White Sox. And minus 40 for the Astros. It's bizarro.
11:46
Just absolutely bizarre. And I still think the Yankees and Red Sox, when push comes to shove, they're the teams that are the most or, or the best built for the playoffs come October.
11:57
Coming back, Adam Burke Honest, you're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:06
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12:23
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:39
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12:43
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13:02
Start for as little as $9.99, or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. And the man who guides the, uh, guides the ship, steers the ship?
13:17
What do you wanna call it? Sure. Steers the- Shepherds it along, all the, all our betting guides, and so much on the website, is our managing editor, Adam Burke, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:26
You can follow him on Twitter @skatingtripods. Adam, good morning to you, sir. How we doing, boys? Happy to have that NFL 2.0 guide out a week from today. So, uh, season's getting closer.
13:37
College football, we got eight games this weekend. So a lot of good things going on over at vsin.com right now. I'm told we have homework. Is that correct? We have homework. That's right. You do. Yeah. Okay. Yes, sir.
13:47
Homework. Um- By Thursday night. We have, uh, we have the Pat McAfee Show on the screen here randomly.
13:53
We have all kinds of stuff, but one of 'em, uh, closest to us is the Mac- was The McAfee Show, and they just showed, Adam, the worst QBR, the worst total QBR between the years 2022 to 2024 amongst qualified quarterbacks.
14:07
Uh, the worst was Will Levis, the third worst was Zach Wilson, and ensconced right in between them was Deshaun Watson, your Cleveland Brown starting quarterback week number one.
14:18
You do support that decision though, correct? I mean, I... There was no good decision to make, right? I mean, neither one of these guys are NFL-level quarterbacks. Dylan Gabriel barely played in the preseason.
14:34
I would've started Taylen Green, personally, just 'cause why not? Go ahead and see what he's got. Um, but look, I mean, this was going to be the decision all along.
14:42
They can't just release the guy because the salary cap hit next year is- Yep... extraordinarily high. I think it's like $87 million or something like that if they were to release him now.
14:53
They do have the opportunity to release him after the season at a discounted rate, so that's probably what they're gonna end up doing. Um, but honestly, look, I mean, he starts two games on the road.
15:02
If he's terrible, they'll go to Schneider for the home opener. If he's okay, he'll probably get booed off the field in Cleveland. So
15:09
whatever, but this was really the only decision that they could make to try and justify, you know, what has been a sunken cost for basically three, four seasons already. Agree with all.
15:20
Not a w- not a word, not a lie spoken in there. All of the above on Deshaun Watson. It was always gonna happen. Salary cap implications also make that necessary probably at the end of the year. Goodbye Deshaun.
15:31
And then does he end up with another team after that is a whole nother story. Um, give me your, uh, give me your Cleveland Browns take on the season, though. What do you think?
15:41
Well, again, I mean, you know, it's, uh, it's one of those things where I like about, you know, 48, 49, 50 or so players on the 53-man roster. Mm-hmm. Uh, but the two quarterbacks are two of those guys that I don't like.
15:52
So you know, this is a team that's probably going to be good enough to stumble their way into some victories, hopefully not take themselves out of the top five on the 27 draft, but I mean, look, they rebuilt the skill positions on the fly, right?
16:06
The young guys that they drafted look really, really good. Harold Fannin is a matchup nightmare, who they took last year in the draft.
16:12
Uh, we'll see what Quinshon Judkins looks like coming off of the injury, but I mean, the offensive line's not bad. The defense has got a bunch of dudes still, even without Myles Garrett.
16:21
It's a really good football team outside of the most important position on the field. So they'll probably go 6 and 11, something like that, maybe 5 and 12.
16:31
Um, I just hope that, you know, again, they don't, uh, they don't go 7 and 10 or something like that and screw themselves out of a top five pick.
16:38
[laughs] Total, uh, season win total is five and a half over slightly juiced on the Browns at minus 130. All right, you have a trio of baseball plays for us. Let's get those in. What do you got first?
16:49
Yeah, so, uh, Rockies and Nationals here today.
16:52
I mean, uh, you know, the Rockies getting swept by my Guardians over the weekend and, you know, now they're out on the road, starting off a road trip, but they're taking on a Nationals team that went just one and eight on their nine-game road trip.
17:03
So they're struggling a bit. They're definitely having a hard time without James Wood in that lineup. He's just such a, you know, prolific power bat, a guy who walks, a guy who pitchers really have to worry about.
17:13
So their offense has slumped a little bit without him, but Cade Cavalli has been really, really good here of late. 29 strikeouts in his last three starts, 21 strikeouts in his last two starts.
17:25
Had a really good start at Coors Field against this Rockies team last month.
17:30
Uh, I'm not laying the big number with the Nationals here today, but I think one of the more interesting props in this game is for Cade Cavalli to pick up the win in this one, plus 109 is the number at DraftKings this morning.
17:42
He's a guy that's gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, went eight innings in one of them as well. Um, you know, he's got, I think, four wins, uh, four or five wins out of those eight starts.
17:52
So you know, the bullpen is rested for the Nationals. Again, coming off of a bad road trip, I think they wanna erase some of those bad tastes in their mouths now that they're back at home.
18:01
So I'll take Cade Cavalli to get the win here tonight for the Nationals plus 109 in that pitcher player prop market. Five weeks left in the Major League Baseball season.
18:10
It's amazing to say this Rangers at White Sox has playoff implications abounding. White Sox only three and a half above your Guardians [laughs] now in the AL Central.
18:19
And the Rangers, as we mentioned, tied for first in the AL West with a game under.500 record. How are you playing the Rangers at the White Sox today? Yeah, what an interesting, uh, situation there in the, in the West.
18:32
I mean, the Mariners just keep getting completely blown out- It's amazing... it feels like, on a nightly basis. Houston just parted ways with their GM, you know, Dana Brown.
18:40
So you know, just kind of a dumpster fire there in the division as a whole.
18:44
Uh, what I like today in this game between the Ra- Rangers and the White Sox, I'm gonna fade Kumar Rocker in this one, and I'm gonna take the White Sox first five team total over two and a half at plus money, the plus 110, plus 115 range.
18:57
Rocker's not very good against lefties. The White Sox are gonna throw seven left-handed batters at him, and most of those guys have some power, so doesn't really take much, you know, to get over two and a half here.
19:07
You hit a two-run homer, a solo homer, maybe you get a three-pointer, you know, the old, uh, the Earl Weaver. You know, I'd love to see one of those. So I think that's definitely a possibility here tonight.
19:16
Rocker's a guy really struggling in the second half. Slugging percentage is up 64 points from where it was in the first half. Uh, just a guy who I'm just not a big believer in.
19:27
Walk rate around 11% against lefties, so I'm looking to fade him. Uh, maybe the White...
19:32
Maybe the Rangers are able to, you know, do something offensively themselves, so I'll avoid kind of playing the game, 'cause I don't know what José Urquidy is gonna give you for the White Sox, but I think the White Sox offense is successful tonight.
19:44
So first five team total over two and a half for me for Chicago there on the, on the south side. Man, people had a lot of hope for the Pirates, especially Pirates fans this year.
19:53
It looks like it ain't gonna happen here with five weeks left in the season. The post All-Star break swoon. Robbie Ray taking the hill for the Padres are doing the exact opposite of the Pirates.
20:02
They are surging here post All-Star break. How are you playing this? Yeah, so this is one, you know, where you kind of really see the impact that the starting pitcher has on the line.
20:12
I mean, Braxton Ashcraft has been terrific throughout the course of this season. Really, really good in his last two starts as well.
20:18
But the Pirates aren't hitting, and the Pirates specifically aren't hitting against left-handed pitching. They're 26th in the month of August against lefties and win it on base average.
20:27
Um, you know, this is a team that's also fifth in plate appearances in that split. So this isn't, like, small sample size or anything like that. They're just not performing.
20:35
And, and that's really not a big surprise because most of their best hitters all season long have been left-handed sticks and they're not doing much against lefties right now. And while Robbie Ray is Robbie Ray, right?
20:47
He's probably gonna have five strikeouts and four walks over five and a third or something like that. You know, he's a guy that, uh, had success, you know, at Oracle Park.
20:55
His ERA is about a run and a half almost, lower than some of his other run estimators. Um, yeah, there are concerns with that, but I think it's a pretty good lineup for him to face here today.
21:05
And the other thing is this. I mean, is Ashcraft better than Ray? Absolutely.
21:10
But the Padres offense is better, and I get this Padres bullpen in what's probably gonna be a pretty close game at, you know, a slight underdog price. I have to take that.
21:21
You know, Mason Miller didn't pitch yesterday, pitched the two prior days, so he should be good today. All their leverage arms are available. I think the Padres are worth it.
21:29
Uh, you know, in the minus 102 range, you know, we're kind of a short dog at DraftKings this morning. We'll see how this line kind of plays out throughout the course of the day.
21:35
But anytime I'm getting a reasonable number with this Padres bullpen in a game that, you know, could be close in the late innings, I'll take that shot. And again, they have the better offense here as well.
21:46
What does your, what does your instinct tell you right now in the American League playoffs, in the, the flat Earth American League? Right now, i- if I just said, what, what's your hunch once, once the postseason field...
21:57
We don't know who's gonna be in it ultimately, who the six teams are going to be, but what's your hunch in terms of the cream rising in October in the American League? It's, um...
22:09
Man, that's such a hard question to answer because do the Yankees get Aaron Judge back at some point? They do. Right? Let's say they do. I mean, he adds such a different dynamic to their offense.
22:18
Now, of course, he's been not very good in the playoffs throughout the course of his career, so people may kind of downplay his return if it happens, but I mean, the dude's a home run threat every time he walks up to the plate.
22:27
And that's the big thing about the playoffs. The run environment changes dramatically, and it's all about hitting for power, and the Yankees still have the ability to do that. Um, I, I don't really know about the Rays.
22:40
I mean, obviously, their pitching in a short series is gonna be a lot to contend with, but I don't know how good that offense actually is. Boston has some offensive upside.
22:48
Chicago can hit a few home runs, but their pitching staff isn't great. Um, not a Guardians believer right now, despite them sweeping the Rockies over the weekend.
22:57
In the West, I mean, Seattle's the team with the highest ceiling, but they're not doing anything right now. So I don't know.
23:03
I mean, I, I know that Tampa Bay and New York really stand out, but I don't think anybody in the AL is really that good. Interesting. Tampa Bay and New...
23:11
I think it's New York and Boston, I think would be how I would answer that. But it is just... Man, you're right. Baron, uh, Baron Judge is coming back. When exactly is he coming back? Any day now. Yankees.
23:22
There, let's get this g- let's get this going. Only five weeks left. Thank you, Adam. Appreciate it. Take care, guys. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:03
Bet sharp, look square Skill Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Uh, we get tweets, beating the book. Shall I read some of these? What we got? What we got? Uh, Dr. Ven Nostrad.
24:15
I also think that if Josh Allen and Gary Woodland, uh, were at war, I think Kelly would root for Justin Herbert to come out of the woods so they both can beat on him. [laughs] Which is probably true.
24:24
Look, I don't root for anybody to get hurt. You know that, Gil. Sure. It's kind of what you're known for.
24:30
Every time though, one of these ch- one of these Chargers go down, uh, in the back of my mind, I'm just like, I b- I'm, I'm not happy for this, but oh boy, here we go again. Here we go again.
24:41
And like at some point, these guys don't... Like the, it, it sucks.
24:44
At the end of the day if you're like, or the end of the season or the end of your second season, third, fourth, fifth season, for you to sit, sit there and be like, "How well am I, how far am I supposed to get?"
24:55
Everybody keeps getting hurt. Like I understand it, but it's also part of football and we judge quarterbacks differently. Like they are judged by wins and losses and what you do in the playoffs.
25:06
Kelly hates Justin Herbert. Herbert gonna struggle to get there again. Chance Copperpot, "Speaking of comeback player of the year,
25:13
to questionable people in hard knocks, the Seahawks really wanna get Terrion Arnold out on the field. What odds would you need for him? I don't know how I feel about the signing." Well, they'd hit a snag, by the way.
25:23
So the Seahawks- Well, did his eight felony charges get in the way? Well, that's the first thing, right? Eight felony charges, including kidnapping and armed robbery.
25:33
So the Lions cut him, and again, part of that was, "Hey, you know those flags you got last year for PIs and holds? Yeah, probably shouldn't add eight felonies to that. We'll cut you." Yeah.
25:45
But then Ian Rapoport r- report in that Arnold, um, has interest from the Seattle Seahawks. They though, they, they went ahead and they, they had a big signing, right, of Trayvon Diggs.
25:58
So that's the first thing people are wondering, "Well, what about the Terrion Arnold thing?"
26:02
Ian Rapoport reporting that, "Once signed, Arnold would land on the NFL's commissioner exempt list, meaning he wouldn't be able to practice with his new team or play in any games.
26:13
That may have caused the Seahawks [laughs] to back off." Well, I, or it's just, it might be, I, I mean, like that's, that is most likely what's gonna happen, right?
26:21
So even if w- wherever he ends up signing, you, you're probably not seeing him for a long time, you would think. Real. So I mean, look, Terrion Arnold's still young enough.
26:28
It might just be a Seattle invest-in-the-future move. KFlow, who I met this week, uh, K- last week, Kevin Florence, nice to, uh, nice to meet you there.
26:37
Xander Shoffley making a quad on six yesterday costing me a season long cash in splash sports. Oh. Rick run good, fun contest, but not great, Bob. Brutal. You ever go back and watch the, uh, Mad Men not great, Bob?
26:50
So great. Yeah. Entering the, uh, the elevator- Mm-hmm... where the guy's like, "Hey, how you doing?" "Not great, Bob." Kevin Hall, "Have you seen the fast futures for the NFL on DraftKings?
27:02
Futures bets for the first three weeks of the season, something worth diving into?" I have not personally. Yeah, we'll get into it at some point. But I will get, I will get into that. I've been kinda waiting on 'em.
27:11
Well, soon. It's a long summer, uh, to talk football- Soon... as you and I often say. Soon as this state gets legalized sports betting, we'd be all over it. You know what? Think Caesars has a couple of these up.
27:24
Oh, we got some hockey futures per Manny Davidson. He goes, "Time for the JCon bat signal. Most standings points." We gotta get Jake in here at some point as well. What are you, what are you, what are you giggling at?
27:38
Uh, J- I was thinking about something with Jake this weekend. Oh. But yeah, yeah, it, it's, uh, it's gonna be J- Jake season. September specials up at Caesars. There you go. Um, AFC,
27:49
since Josh Allen, we were just talking about Josh Allen, where, where do you stand on the pecking order of the AFC?
27:54
We just did this with Eastern Conference in the, uh, in the NBA, but since Josh Allen was up in our brains here, Ravens are the short shot to win the conference. Why? Like, I don't think they're bad, but like why? Okay.
28:09
I don't, I don't think they should be the short shots to win their division, quite frankly. [laughs] That's as far I've got to have with you. I- Yeah...
28:15
I don't know if I'd go that far, but I think the, them and the Bengals should be closer together than what they are. Um, Ravens are plus 470 to win the AFC. Bills are plus 510.
28:25
Remember this is when all the playoffs are said and done heading into the Super Bowl. Pats plus 760, Chiefs plus 770, your
28:33
Los Angeles Chargers plus 830, Texans plus 850, and then it is the Bengals and Broncos at plus 1025. How about the Jaguars getting no respect at 15 to 1? Oh yeah, they were, uh, they, they continue to intrigue me.
28:47
I will say that, Gil. Jaguars 15 to 1. Jagwires even lower on the list. I, I'm [laughs] that's right. Yeah. I'm actually shocked.
28:54
Going back to that Texans point about how much love they've been getting this off season, I, I'm pretty surprised at not only how much love they've been getting and consistently building here over the course of the off season, but then the Jags that f- if Philly got mentioned maybe a little bit at the beginning of the off season, I haven't heard anybody bring up recently.
29:13
Does this feel like the year to you where the surefire defenses, and I'm looking at you Texans and Broncos, feel like the safe bets on the board? Because those are the two things- Yep...
29:25
those are the two units of all these, and I guess you could throw the Bengals offense in here as well, but they might have a bad defense too, right? We don't know what the Bengals defense will be this year.
29:34
I'd go Bill's offense over Bengals offense if you're looking for consistency. Run the ball, offensive line Josh Allen, James Cook. Okay, that's fair.
29:44
But the Texans and Broncos defenses are such that to me, those are the two most surefire units in the entire AFC. Those are the two that you can count on- Right... at this moment in August. If you- Agreed...
29:57
if, if you were to say to me, "Give me the two best units," those are them. Agreed. And so therefore to me, projecting forward to the playoffs- Mm-hmm...
30:05
'cause I think they're both getting there And I think both might win their divisions. Yes, I think the Broncos might win the AFC West. I just feel like those, by definition, become the best bets on this board. Okay.
30:16
So I love this conversation. I love this conversation 'cause I agree with you as far as those are the two units in the AFC that I trust the most. And then it comes down to can you trust C.J.
30:27
Stroud and Bo Nix in a playoff game? Ding, ding, ding, to a degree. Yeah. I think best way to bets, bet these teams, I'd rather bet over win totals with those type of teams.
30:38
With the floor raiser that is that defense that I can s- consistently count on every single week to be there. Hopefully you get those spike weeks out of the quarterbacks, get you over a win total.
30:49
That's why I brought up the Bengals before. The Bengals with, you know, like, okay, we, we don't know what the, what this defense is gonna look like. We are hearing good things. Mm.
30:57
But if I can stay, just run hot and everybody stays healthy on the offensive side of the ball, don't they...
31:03
I think once you get to the playoffs, I'd rather have a healthy Bengals unit, assuming everybody's healthy, right, all these teams.
31:09
I'd rather have a Bengals team with the high upside of that offense than one of the defenses. Okay. That, I, I hear what you're saying.
31:16
The other interesting thing about this though is if you look for, oh, historically in the AFC then, who of these guys has done, who of these teams- Mm-hmm...
31:23
and therefore the quarterbacks by, uh, by proxy have in fact gotten to the promised land of the Super Bowl. Mm-hmm. Forget about winning the Super Bowl, but have gotten there.
31:31
And because Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have had such a dynas- dynastic AFC run, there's only three answers to this question, right? Mahomes, Drake May last year, and Joe Burrow when he got there. Am I correct?
31:47
Nobody else in this entire conference has ever gotten to a Super Bowl besides those three names. That's it. That's the list. Josh Allen hadn't. Lamar Jackson hasn't for all their MVPs. Yep. Yep. Right?
32:00
Justin Herbert, your boy, hasn't. C.J. Stroud hasn't. Bo Nix hasn't. Trevor Lawrence hasn't. You get the, you get the... Well, I guess Aaron Rodgers has, but that was in the NFC. [laughs] Right.
32:11
And that'd be, that'd be- Good point. Rodgers, Rodgers got there... that'd be the one exception. Yeah, he's- Worth bringing up... he's gonna be 43 in December. So anyway, so you can't... That's the other thing.
32:21
That's the counter... It's not really a counter to c- to your counter, 'cause I understand what you're saying. But it's not like, it's not like you can say, "Well, Bo Nix and C.J.
32:31
Stroud have never gotten there," as if the implication is, "Yeah, but all these other guys have." No, it's a very short list. Mm-hmm. It's Patrick Mahomes domination, followed by Burrow and one year of Drake May.
32:42
And again, shout out Drake May. The fact that they got to the Super Bowl last year- Yeah, absolutely... is just insane. And I, you know what? I- Just insane... like, I have a Bills to win the division bet.
32:50
But I, that in no way i- is, is me really doubting how good this Patriots team could be this year. I, I think, look, the schedule's tougher. We've all talked about that. It's going to be tougher.
33:00
I love the addition of A.J. Brown, though. I think Drake May has got something there, man. I, I, I think this Patriots team could be right in the mix.
33:07
But I, it, you know, we b- we brought this up a couple times this summer. Who doesn't make the playoffs on this list? 'Cause you've got Ravens, Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, Texans, Bengals, Broncos.
33:21
That right there is eight teams that I think a lot of people would assu- I mean, you, you stretch out to the Jags, it's nine teams. I think it's easy- Two of those teams aren't making it.
33:29
For me, it's easy to, to logically say a team like the Patriots because of the schedule shift. Mm-hmm. Takes nothing away from what they did last year, but that would be, like, they're playing a different
33:40
set of games this year. And that wasn't just the easiest schedule last year. That was a historically easy schedule. But, uh, here, I'll put it this way. Who's got the most pressure?
33:49
Of all the quarterbacks in the AFC, who's got the most pressure on them this year? Is- Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson... still because they've never gotten there? I think so. And deservedly so. I think you're right.
33:58
I think, I think both of them would answer it that way, too. I think you're right. That it should be that way. [upbeat music] If that weren't the case, I would probably say Stroud after what we saw of him late last year.
34:07
And Bo Nix, we never got a chance to see him in the AFC Championship, right? I know. Poor Justin Herbert. [laughs] Herbert's gonna keep telling me he's one of the best quarterbacks ever.
34:14
[laughs] Man, the man hates Justin Herbert. We'll recap the bets next on the Numbers Game of VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:21
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:43
Back on the Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan. Yo. Hear the hizzy. Uh, listener Lance, "I coach my son's JFL team." Not sure what that stands for.
34:55
He said, "He, we had a hand, foot, and mouth disease go through the whole program. Affected some players more than others. It gave some of the boys, quote, 'temporary arthritis in their knees and ankles.'" Man.
35:04
I don't think he meant the quote there. "I hadn't really heard of it, and now it seems to be everywhere." Junior Football League? That's what I'm gonna go with. I'm gonna go with that. JFL. I'm gonna go with that, too.
35:13
Scrabble star. Uh-oh, did we do something wrong English-wise? What'd we screw up? Nope, he said he's okay. He said, "Gil, I did play Ruben Bain Jr.
35:21
for Defensive Rookie of the Year simply for psychological reasons, hoping he's playing for blood after sliding in the first round because of his, quote-unquote, 'short arms.' Something to prove maybe?" That's right.
35:30
Yeah. [laughs] I like it. Something to prove. Something to overcome, those short arms. Short arm syndrome. Anyway, still can't... What, what is it? Him and Will Campbell? That's my ideal matchup for it. Will Campbell.
35:39
Bucs and Patriots. [laughs] T-Rex battle. [laughs] That's what we make these guys out to be. It's like, come on. Yeah. Their arms aren't that small. A, a crocodile fighting a T-Rex. [laughs] That's right. There you go.
35:51
Or alligator, whatever it is. I can't remember. Eh, they both got short arms. Uh, here we go with the, uh, best bets again today. I have two tennis plays, both on the ladies' side, both in Monterrey, Mexico.
36:02
Renata Zarazua plus 250 versus Clara Tauson is the big dog play. These are all obviously in the Western Hemisphere, so these haven't happened yet. They'll happen tonight or this afternoon.
36:11
Diane Parry plus 135 versus Donna Vekic.... is the other one. Again, these are all based on hard court numbers, and those prices should not be what they are. So Sarasua and Paré are the plays in tennis.
36:25
Uh, you have anything today, by the way? I've got nothing. Oh.
36:28
You know, pre-season- Oh, by the way, before we go, Iga to win the US Open 7 to 1, Carlitos to win the US Open plus 175, and I, I said, put this on one more time, Tigers most wins in August, 60 to 1. Guess what?
36:39
That's not winning. Turned out to be w- turned out to be, in the end, maybe the worst play at the end of all of our monthlies this year, 'cause no other team has finished worse than four wins below the leader.
36:51
This one might. Well, it's a pretty good season overall. [laughs] We, we did okay in July. [laughs] But like, I didn't, I don't, I don't know if I w- knew that off the top of my head with every other month. What?
37:03
No other month- Oh... your, your bet finished four, more than four wins off. Even, even the ones that had no shot really. I know you had a c- Yeah... we had a couple that c- that closed late, right?
37:11
Right, with cosmetic finishes. Yeah. Yeah. That's interesting. Detroit might have a cosmetic finish, too. I've got nothing, Gil, but I'm really c- looking at these, uh, pre-season Week 3 lines coming down right now.
37:21
49ers at Raiders. These, these all just, like, opened up, basically. Uh, Raiders one and a half to two and a half point favorites at home. That one's kind of interesting to me on the Raiders side.
37:33
Seahawks, Chiefs, I'm not, I'm not fired on any of these right now. Gonna wait for information a little bit here throughout today. Seahawks, Chiefs. Interested in Chiefs. They're one, one and a half point home favorites.
37:43
Cardinals on the road. This one's getting bet up here right away. Cardinals anywhere between one and a half to three point road favorites at Green Bay. 36 and a half the total on this game. Have to dig into that one.
37:56
Maybe the Cardinals have already, uh, said what they're doing with quarterbacks. Greg Peterson's Fab Five earlier on the show. Five baseball plays. Red Sox, Marlins over seven and a half.
38:06
Nats on the run line, minus one and a half plus 120 versus the Rockies. White Sox he has over the Rangers. They're about minus 125. Padres, Pirates, he's going over seven and a half.
38:16
Phillies, Mariners over six and a half. Interesting that both he and Adam Burke seized on those two, uh, on those three games, uh, there at the end. Different bets, but s- still.
38:27
Uh, Wes Reynolds, Mariners plus 108 versus the Phillies. And then soccer today. How about some Prem? Chelsea minus 107 versus Fulham on the three-way line from Wes Reynolds. Getting into the Prem, that kid.
38:39
More and more each and every year. Uh, here's Adam Burke. Cade Cavalli to record a win versus the Rockies plus 109.
38:45
White Sox first five team total over two and a half plus 114 versus the Rangers, and the Padres minus 102 versus the Pirates.
38:53
It was both Wes and Adam who, uh, echoed some of the same games that, uh, Greg was firing in on, just different kinds of bets.
39:00
Um, and, uh, I just wanted to clarify also last, 'cause we were talking about the AFC, and I don't know if I articulated it well enough, but what I was trying to say was, I, 'cause I totally understand your point about would you rather bet certain teams to win the AFC or would you rather just bet the over on their- Mm-hmm...
39:15
season win total, talking about the Texans and the Broncos, who I said have the best two units, I think, the most solid units in their defenses in the entire conference.
39:23
And what I was just trying to say was, it, it's not really a counter to your counter, but it was sorta like if you go, if this conference, because of the Federer, Nadal, Djokovic type domination of Patrick Mahomes- Right...
39:35
through the years, there's literally, if you throw Aaron Rodgers out, because that was a different conference and a different era, it's only three guys, right? It's Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Drake May.
39:47
That's the list of quarterbacks in this conference who have gotten to a Super Bowl. And so the notion that C.J.
39:56
Stroud and Bo Nix, you're like, "Oh, well, I don't necessarily trust them in a playoff game," most likely the guy opposite the field from them at quarterback is also going to have that stigma attached to them as well, because unless it's Mahomes, Burrow, and May, they all have that same stigma.
40:13
Mm-hmm. So I just think it's in- it's interesting in that regard because y- one could be quick to dismiss C.J. Stroud or Bo Nix in those situations, but who's gonna be on the opposite side of the field? Justin Herbert?
40:24
Right. Trevor Lawrence? Josh Allen, Lamar Jack- I mean, it's impo- it's incredible to say that about those guys. They've never been to a Super Bowl. It's wild.
40:36
With all of their accolades, because of the fact that they live in the same generation as Patrick Mahomes. So anyway. Hey, uh, before we go, can we, can we give a shout-out to, uh, the great Danny Higgins? For sure.
40:48
Danny Higgins, who, uh, we affectionately call producer number 10 around here. This is Danny Higgins' last week, not only on the show, but, uh, but at the network, and we love Danny.
40:58
And Danny has been, uh, instrumental to the show for, how long has it been? A couple years now, Danny? What has it been? A year and a half? Little over a year. Little over a year.
41:06
[laughs] Darnell just heckling in the back there. Hey, that's how much he's gonna be missed, Darnell, okay? That's right. That's right.
41:13
So, uh, we just, this is Danny's last week, but we just wanted to point out- You probably more than anybody... that we will, that we will miss him greatly.
41:20
I noticed as soon as we gave him the moniker of producer number 10, he's like, "Deuces." That's, uh, that's all he was waiting for. That's all he was waiting for. He's like- He got, he ordered himself a jersey...
41:27
his life goals are achieved. Like Fezzik, he, like, ordered a jacket for himself. [laughs] And then he was like, "Cool, I'm good." Anyway, Danny's still working all week, so we'll- That's right...
41:35
we'll, uh- Bust his chops all week... we'll, we'll bring him up again. Yeah. But just wanted to point out this is, we're sort of, what's the, the melancholy goodbye to Dan Higgins.
41:44
Because, because selfishly we're upset, but we're s- we're very happy for him. Absolutely. So everybody- Yes... please send in your, send in your, uh, well wishes to Danny here. Leaving for good life reasons for Danny.
41:55
That's right. And that's what we all root for. Good life reasons. Oh. Like rooting for good people. Uh, Dave, Neil24, "I got in on the fast futures on DraftKings.
42:04
DeJean Stribling 100 to 1 receiving yards leader through week three." Ooh. That is, that is the cool part. Again, we do these monthlies in Major League Baseball, right? That's an interesting one.
42:15
So the fact that you can do this in the NFL when it comes to stats, essentially the same kind of thing. Short runway bets, fast futures, as dubbed by DraftKings.
42:25
And the notion, I guess, you know, from a betting standpoint, can odds makers properly price those kinds of things? Not really. But I think there's, there- that's a great sample of- Yes...
42:39
the one that was just tweeted in, right? Yeah. You have no idea how, what the health of these, this, uh, receiving corps is gonna be by the time we hit week one.
42:47
Y- you, you, it's impossible for anybody to tell you right now how good Stribling is, or how g- how he's, how much action he's gonna get in this offense right away.
42:56
Well, the big thing about the- the- the three-week arc of these is that no one knows who can pop in any one given week. Rushing yards, receiving yards, right? It could be anybody- Yeah...
43:09
who just has this outlying game, never duplicates it the rest of the year, but just has a game where they go crazy in the box score. Okay, there's only two other games then in that bet, right?
43:21
Whether it happens week one, two, or three, there's only two other week. So if somebody gets this artificial outlying bump, now you gotta figure out who that's gonna be, of course. But that's all it kinda takes. Mm-hmm.
43:33
And so that's the beauty of betting these kinds of short-term things. Why do you think we like the monthlies in Major League Baseball?
43:39
Because it does, obviously not to this degree, right, but it reduces it to 27, 26 ballgames, that kind of thing. Short runway, makes for an interesting bet. This is the ultimate in that.
43:51
This is like, "Here, we have three games, and one of them could pop. Good luck everybody else catching the one dude who pops." Why don't we do tomorrow, why don't we do some of these ones from DraftKings? Yeah.
44:00
And then later in the week we'll do the Caesars September specials. Those are- They do, they do throughout September. Yeah, they do throughout September.
44:06
I'm gonna throw- Isn't S- isn't September three games anyway, though? I don't know. It sounds right. Yeah. Okay. Well, we'll compare. [laughs] I think they're different, I think they're different markets, though. Okay.
44:14
Yeah. I don't, I don't see all the same ones I saw up at Caesars and DraftKings. By the way, I did have to, like, remind myself that Septem- we have that week off, so we don't start- I know. It sucks...
44:23
the first week of September. Yeah. Sucks. All right, real quick I'm gonna throw a couple at you, though. Any player to have 400 plus receiving yards after three weeks. Any player.
44:31
Any player to- We're gonna, we're gonna do some specific, tomorrow we'll do pass, rush, and receiving leaders. Any player to have 400 plus receiving yards. What's the yes price? Plus 145, no minus 190. Give me the yes.
44:43
How about 500 yards? You're getting five to one on the yes. No. Okay. What's the no? Uh, the no is minus 800. Yeah, no, I'm not playing it. But then give me a no. Any player... Wait, hold on.
44:53
That's like the three scores in a row- That was rush... versus the four scores in a row pricing of the Super Bowl. Sorry, any player to have 500 plus receiving yards after three weeks is 40 to one on the yes.
45:03
The no minus 20,000. Yeah, it's tough to get to 500. 100 yards, yeah, that big of a difference. Yeah. 'Cause 400 you gotta really- Mm-hmm... go crazy for three weeks. Prop Points is next. Jeff Erickson, Nick Wieland.
45:16
Enjoy, from VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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