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Aug 25, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2025 | Hour 3
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three
0:12
of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, sitting here in the, uh, moni in the middle position. Hey. And Wes Reynolds, our first ever hour three guests here on a Numbers Game. What an appropriate way to start a three-hour tour.
0:32
A three-hour tour. A three-hour tour. Mary Ann or Ginger? Quick. Ginger. Wow, you don't really hear that as an answer. Mary Ann, just to go oppo Wes. Yeah, all right. You know what was not- Just to go contrarian, right?
0:43
That's right, yeah. You know what was not smart was going oppo Wes, uh, golf betting this weekend. Well, so- Tommy Fleetwood, what? We, we went two hours, we couldn't even... We, we're, again, we're spreading out.
0:54
We couldn't even get to golf. Tommy Fleetwood's 164th career start on the PGA Tour, and no one can ever say Tommy Fleetwood is not gonna get a win in 164 events. He gets it.
1:07
Uh, he gets the FedEx Cup and $10 million in the process.
1:10
Uh, he had won seven times, of course, on the DP World Tour before, uh, three other times around the world, but that's his first one on US soil, and what a way to do it. Um, what did I...
1:22
I mean, was it 30 top five finishes without a victory- Yes, 30... were the most on the PGA tour in the past 100 years, according to ESPN Research.
1:30
33.4 million in career earnings, the most for a golfer who hadn't won on tour.
1:34
And remember recently, the sh- you know, the, the close calls, the travelers, where he had the one-shot lead going into the 72nd hole, he three-putted. Keegan Bradley wins that one by one. And then the FedEx St.
1:46
Jude, right?
1:47
Two weeks ago, where he had a two-shot lead with three holes to play in the first leg of the playoffs, of these three week playoffs, and then he went one over down the stretch, and Justin Rose beats JJ Spaun in the playoff.
1:56
Wes Reynolds had Fleetwood because of course he did. I... Well done, Wes. Nobody beats Tommy Fleetwood 165 times in a row. That's right.
2:06
[laughs] Appropriate with the US Open going on, we, uh, uh, do a paraphrase of the Vitas Gerulaitis, uh, legendary quote. What? You, uh, y- what did, what was your number on Tommy? 14 to one.
2:16
14 to one pre-flop, 14 to one? Yes. Um, so you had no compunction because of all the close calls and his inability, you had no compunction about betting him.
2:26
I said, "Look, I'm ready to get hurt again," and I wrote it in the column- Yeah... said it on air. I said- A lot of long shots, sure... "I'm ready for it, man. I'm ready for the pain."
2:32
I, I'm pretty- [laughs] You gotta embrace the pain sometimes as a bettor because- Yeah... look, we're getting into the full week of college football and then NFL, of course, starting next week.
2:40
Sometimes you gotta make bets that you're like, "Oh, I hate making them," but they feel so right in the end, and, uh, they did with Tommy Fleetwood yesterday.
2:48
Look, I was happy for him because of the fact that he is kind of, I think, who all of us as, like, sports bettors wish to be, aspire to be in terms of the fact that he has such a positive attitude about everything.
3:00
Yeah, he's incredible. Like, he doesn't let him get down. Me- Right...
3:02
me, I lose my first bet of the day, I'm slamming my pen, I'm knocking over stuff, and I think that's how some of us react because we're competitive people.
3:12
I don't care what it is, whether it's professional golf or sports betting, you're a competitive person. And man, he's like, "You know what? I keep doing what I'm doing. It's gonna happen."
3:20
Uh, you know, without saying, quote-unquote, "Trust the process," I know it's gonna happen. And, you know, he was too talented of a player, I think, never, never to win, like, a big event on the PGA Tour.
3:31
Seven-time DP World Tour winner, one of the best, I think, in the European Ryder Cup contingent probably over the last half decade or close to a decade.
3:39
So you know the guy's got the game, it just, luck hadn't been on his side or he just hits the wrong shot at the wrong time like he did on Saturday when he had a three-shot lead and put it in the water, and all of a sudden, you know, here we go, he's gonna be tied going into Sunday.
3:52
But, uh, and I thought Fleetwood also held up well being paired with Patrick Cantlay. [laughs] I don't know if you watched the telecast yesterday on, uh, NBC. Yeah, I did. That was painful.
4:03
It's like you- Patrick, take your sweet ass time, can you? [laughs] You gotta, you gotta put this guy on tape delay. It's amazing. It's incredible. You gotta...
4:08
Moments ago, Patrick Cantlay, because they had him- [laughs]... and he's doing waggle, waggle, waggle, waggle, and, uh, you know- It's funny...
4:14
you're waiting for Rodney Dangerfield, Jo- uh, to come out and go, "Let's go while we're young." [laughs] And he goes, "I ne- " And Patrick Cantlay will go, "I never slice." And what did he do?
4:22
He sliced it right to the right in the woods. I thought Fleetwood afterward too, Wes, I don't know if you caught this, but there was a couple lines he had just of...
4:31
Uh, look, I'm the guy, right after he loses some of these events and he's out there, like, doing, like, i- interviews right away on TV, I'm like, "How are you on TV right now?
4:39
How are you not smashing a locker room, uh, you know, like, uh, other golfers we know might do- Mm-hmm... uh, in this situation?" That used to irritate me. Well, the- But he, he said, Gil, I loved this line.
4:49
He wins, he won, and they z- asked about all the tough losses and everything like that, and he's like, "Look, I love going to work. Like, work, work for me is fun, and I love putting in the work.
4:59
I love going to work every single day." Uh, it's just one of those things. It just, I mean, it translates to everybody, right?
5:05
He sa- I remember when he, when he, uh, when he lost to the travelers, to, to Keegan Bradley, he did allow, he was like, "I'm upset now. I'm angry. It hurts."
5:14
But other than that, he has really been, he's had just such a great attitude about it.
5:18
And yesterday he said afterwards, in addition to what you just said, Kelly, he said, um, "You know, you can sit here and ta- " paraphrase, 'cause I don't have the exact quote. Yeah.
5:26
"But you can sit here and talk about, you know, um, being resilient," was the word he used. "But until you actually do it, and until you prove it," right? "It's just words, basically."
5:37
And he fi- and he stepped up and he did it, and he kind of did it in sort of ho-hum fashion in the end, right?
5:41
I thought the li- the other line that I thought was funny, was just extremely honest, was where he wa- they were like, "Uh, you know, when did you think you had it, it, you know, it was done," or whatever. Yeah.
5:49
[laughs] He's like, "Look, with how many close calls I've had- Yeah... a three-shot lead doesn't feel like that big of a lead when you've had- Mm-hmm... some of the collapses I've had." So I, yeah, well done, Tommy.
5:59
Well done, Wes. Well, Wes benefits off of a couple of the Tommy Fleetwood, uh, uh, moves, right? 'Cause you were on Keegan with me that week as well, right? I was. I was.
6:05
We, we, we needed Tommy to choke then, and now, yeah. And, uh, Captain Bradley, by the way, has a big decision, uh, coming tomorrow. No decision. No decision at all, Wes. He's gotta play, right? He's gotta play.
6:14
I think he, I think he has to. Yeah. But, you know, I was kind of thinking, is he gonna play? Is he not gonna play? 'Cause at first I was all in on he's one of the best 12 on the US team, so he's gotta play.
6:24
But then I kind of thought, you know, when Rory in a media availability a couple years ago, because he was, I believe, approached by Team Europe.
6:32
It's at Adare Manor over in Ireland in two years from now, and the greatest Irish golfer ever is Rory McIlroy, and that maybe he was gonna be a captain, or they asked him of his interest.
6:42
And he was like, "I don't think you can do it. I don't think you can be a player and be a captain. I don't thi-," it's not been done since Arnold Palmer. Mm-hmm. Right. 1963 or something. Yeah, 1963. Yeah.
6:51
So, but- But doesn't it sound like it's a tell, though? In other words, if he wasn't going to play, wouldn't he have just said it already? Uh, yeah.
6:57
This just sounds like, "Let me set the table that I'm ambivalent about this- Yeah... and that I'm really thinking about it, and I'm going to do it in the end."
7:04
It's sort of like, this is a dirty analogy 'cause it was politics, but I remember before the first Trump election, there were some people who were like, "I'm still undecided." Well, all...
7:12
That means you're voting for Trump. Mm-hmm. 'Cause there's nobody who's undecided the other way, right? Mm-hmm. So there's always tells like that. So I think he's playing, and he should. Exactly.
7:18
Undecided's always- Yeah... bre- a break against the incumbent. Yeah. And certainly did. But, uh, yeah, that's what I think with Bradley. I, I think that he was trying to kind of hedge his bets a little bit.
7:27
I think he was leaving himself some room. It's like, "Okay, if somebody comes and wins this thing, you know, and really plays well- Right. Yeah...
7:33
in the FedExCup playoffs," you know, looking at you, uh, Collin Morikawa- Yeah... or perhaps Chris Gotterup, or maybe Sam Burns. I think he, Sam Burns probably did enough. And then, you know, "Okay, take the spot.
7:44
Take the spot. It's open. If you don't, I'm gonna have to do it." Yeah. No, I- "I'm gonna, I'm gonna have to take the spot," so.
7:50
I, I, I think it, I, I think it's a little bit what you sa- you said, Gil, and then yeah, Wes. Like, there was so, there's so many people that were involved right on that bubble, you know?
7:58
And well, still, still on the bubble, right? Mm-hmm. When, whether you're in, just in, just out.
8:01
And when you're, when you're one of them, like Keegan was, I think it was some of that, "Hey, I gotta give this to the very end, because if I get beat out badly- Yeah... then it's gonna look bad if I take myself."
8:11
I think that's, I think that's probably right. By the way, Ryder Cup odds is next month. Of course, U- USA, minus 145. Europe, plus 150. The tie, remember, it can be a tie, 12 to 1.
8:21
Um, and there's the to lift the trophy market as well. You can bet that, uh, alternatively.
8:27
D- when Justin Rose is out there taking photos of Tommy Fleetwood, did a little part of you say to yourself, "Oh, that's why they're so good at this," Shane Lowry too? Absolutely it did. Yeah. And I've said that before.
8:36
I said that at the Masters when Rory finally got the albatross off his back. Yeah. He finally won the, uh, career Grand Slam, and who's right there?
8:44
His best bud, Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry gives him that big bear hug. I'm like, find you a road dog in your life. Find you a friend- [laughs]... like Shane Lowry. That's right.
8:55
And he was right there for him.
8:56
And, and, and the camaraderie that I think that that European team has is one of the reasons why they've been so successful because it was always kind of in that Seve era, right, in the '80s- Yes...
9:08
and in the early '90s, where they played because they were disrespected because a lot of the ve- Europeans on the Eur- then European tour didn't come play on the PGA Tour.
9:18
They only played maybe majors or a couple select events a year. Now most of the high-profile Europeans are playing on the PGA Tour. There's a couple, of course, playing on Liv. But it was kind of like disrespect.
9:29
It's like Seve, and Sam Torrance, and Bernard Langer, and all those guys felt like, "They're disrespecting us. They don't respect our tour.
9:36
They don't think we're on their level, so we're gonna beat their you-know-whats in this event and prove that we're just as good, that we're just as good as Freddy Couples or Davis Love," what have you.
9:45
You think you're betting this, the Ryder? Not right now. Europeans are getting the money, though, and I expect them to get the money. Their team is, is basically settled.
9:54
It hasn't been officially announced, but Rasmus Højgaard, by the way- Yeah, he played his way in yesterday... played his way in- Yeah... and clinched the final spot.
9:59
Well, you know obviously that Jon Rahm is going to be a captain's pick. You know that Tyrrell Hatton is going to be a captain's pick, and Viktor Hovland, and Ludvig Åberg. Yeah.
10:09
[laughs] These guys, by the way, are not on the team already 'cause they didn't qualify for the top six spots, but- Yeah.
10:13
The top six are Rory, Robert McIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Rasmus Højgaard, Tyrrell Hatton. Mm-hmm. So those so, six are in, and then yeah, like Wes is talking about, I mean, Rahm, Lowry, Straka.
10:22
And, and, and all, and all these other guys, Lowry, Straka- Yeah... Åberg, Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, et cetera. So their team...
10:29
And that's basically the same team that they had in Rome at Marco Simone where they w- kicked the USA's you-know-whats, uh, with the exception of they flip-flopped Højgaards. So it's the Dave Ross thing.
10:40
He goes, "I never know which Højgaard to bet." [laughs] "So I just add them both." Well, this time it's not Nicolai. It's Nicolai on the sidelines, and Rasmus is part of the 12.
10:48
La- last thing about golf, uh, this, uh, the, the three-week arc of the FedEx Cup. Um, do you like it? Is it, can it still be improved upon, or is just the nature of golf, it, it can't be improved upon?
11:00
I don't know if you can find a perfect system. It does kind of feel unfair.
11:04
As much as I curse Scottie Scheffler this year for betting against him and him, you know, trium- trium- tri- being triumphant over so many of us many weeks, it felt like he should've won the FedEx Cup 'cause he had the best season.
11:16
Yeah. But I don't like the starting strokes because at least this week it felt like 30 guys, whoever shoots the lowest score is gonna win, and it felt like every single one of them theoretically had a chance at least.
11:26
So maybe a match play element I wouldn't necessarily mind, mind that. I mean, that's the, that's the answer. Everybody's like, "Match play's bad on TV." Yeah. I love match play. It can, it can get bad.
11:34
But maybe I'm the weirdo. I don't know. That's what, that's what- But you're right. It does feel weird that he's not, Scheffler is not the FedEx Cup champ.
11:41
I would agree Uh, we'll come back more with Wes Reynolds, some college football thoughts from him perhaps. That and more, it's The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:49
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. College football finally here, and the NFL is right around the corner.
12:04
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12:08
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12:17
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12:31
Sign up now at VSiN.com/subscribe. That's VSiN.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Biland, Wes Reynolds, kind enough to, uh, join us for a second segment here in studio at Circa.
12:43
Um, real quick on, uh, Terry McLaurin, for those who missed it, Terry McLaurin signing with Washington a three-year deal, 96 million, up to 96 million in incentives.
12:53
About what you figured Washington and Terry McLaurin would, uh, would end up on.
12:57
And Wes, off-air you were saying, we, we had a little discussion about this, you feel like it's, you know, tough schedule, a lot of good variance for them last year. An under for you on the season win total?
13:09
Well, first of all, Terry McLaurin from? Uh, from, you know, Indiana. From Naptown. Yeah. From Indianapolis, Indiana. Yeah. So always good to see another m- uh, fellow Naptonian be a millionaire.
13:19
When he, when he had a huge catch at Indianapolis against the Colts, you could tell it meant a little extra to him. He, he did. Yeah. Uh, pride and joy of Cathedral High School.
13:26
But yeah, look, uh, with the Commanders, it's good that they got McLaurin obviously settled, and, you know, we'll see how this young seventh round pick, Croskey Merritt- Yes... is. He's the guy.
13:37
Every- everybody's saying, man, "Oh, God, this guy, watch out for him." But, and Brian Robinson I think probably reached his peak.
13:44
But, and the one thing the Commanders I think do need to do is they need to get a little younger. They were very free agent heavy, I think, with the, with this new general manager, with, with the, the new ownership.
13:55
They didn't, you know, they didn't have a lot of draft picks this year or even the year before, so it's kinda like you're built with older players right now.
14:03
And, and you do worry about that 'cause you want some younger players in the pipeline. Well, one is gonna step up now at running back, Croskey Merritt.
14:10
I think the schedule is tougher, and I just think that there's also some variance, Gil. Yeah. What were they, nine and two in one-score games last year? Yeah.
14:17
They're, uh, as I said off-air, they to me are, when we talk about Major League Baseball and I talk about the team you don't want to let into the playoffs, right? Right.
14:26
They're n- I, I don't think Washington's gonna win the division.
14:29
Um, I think that they will be a team that will be in the playoff picture, and whether they get into it as a wildcard or not, I think they will, but they are the proverbial team you do not wanna play in the playoffs because they are, they will be as dangerous as anyone in that situation.
14:44
They're, they're very similar, I guess, in baseball, if you wanna use a baseball analogy, to my Cincinnati Reds and the fact that they might not be good enough to make the playoffs, but if they get in in, like, a short series- Yep...
14:55
and you roll out Hunter Green, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo, that's a pretty good top three- Pretty good... in terms of a, of a pitching staff, let alone Chase Burns if he gets back.
15:04
But that's, I, I kinda think you're right on, on the Commanders, that they could be dangerous, but the schedule- Schedule's tough... you know, that just really catches up with you. Uh, let's go to another sport.
15:15
WNBA, you had some thoughts here.
15:17
Well, uh, you know, we're gonna see what's g- I, I think Minnesota, Napheesa Collier, by the way, got back last night and put up a huge game, I think 30 points in a return after missing seven games.
15:27
So there's this- After, after getting hurt up 40-plus points. Yes. Yeah. Yes. So there's this, like, race for the MVP, right?
15:32
Like, A'ja Wilson big time stat padded the other night because they want the M- Alyssa Thomas has had several triple doubles this year.
15:40
I think it's still Napheesa Collier's to lose though because- They can't give it to A'ja Wilson this year, can they? I, I don't think so. No. Even though the Aces have won 10 in a row. Yeah. They're on a tear, right?
15:47
Now tonight they're playing the Chicago Sky, who are one of the worst teams in the league, and they're already eliminated from the playoffs, but Chicago Sky plus 11 might not be, who I deemed as unbetable, might not be the worst bet.
16:00
Angel Reese is back and now playing full minutes, and if you watch that Sky game on Saturday, Tyler Marsh damn near teed off on the referee, like damn near threw a punch.
16:08
Like, he was fired up because they're w- the officiating in that league, by the way, is horrible across the board.
16:13
And that shows me that there's still some competitive fire with this team, even though they're nine and 27. This might be where the Aces kinda, like, struggle a little bit and they're getting a little high on the hog.
16:23
But back to the MVP, I still think it's gonna be Phe from the Minnesota Lynx.
16:28
Uh, just, she's the one that started Unrivaled, by the way, which is the off-season women's basketball league that they have in, in Miami- Mm-hmm... kind of in a little bubble down there.
16:36
Well, that means you as a WNBA player, if you're playing in this league, you don't have to go overseas to, you know, not the most friendly of places like Brittney Griner did, uh- Yeah... you know, to make money.
16:47
You could still make money in the off-season. So I think there's a lot of players that are like, "You know what? We owe her a debt of gratitude here." So I think Phe is gonna end up winning that MVP going away.
16:57
She is minus 400, A'ja Wilson down to plus 280. 'Cause she was close to, like, minus 1,000 at one point. Yeah. And then she got hurt, and then you started to see Wilson and Thomas get bet. What, uh- And your Fever?
17:07
Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. No, I was, I was gonna ask, uh, I was gonna ask something more selfish first- Please. Yeah, yeah... before we ask about Wes' Fever. Yeah. I, now I'm going to make a dumb bet on the Liberty.
17:16
Uh, I already f- made one this season. [laughs] I'm sure I'll add another one, uh, here, Wes. What, uh, what, what do we think about Stewart, uh,'s timeline? What are we looking like there?
17:25
I think it might be end of the season or, I haven't heard her ruled out by any stretch of the imagination. Yeah, I haven't, I haven't either. Uh, Sabrina did miss the other night.
17:33
It looks like, uh- It looks like she's gonna go tonight, yeah... she's gonna go tonight. It's her problem. And actually, Breanna Stewart, now I'm seeing, uh, as I'm looking it up, gets upgraded. So now the- Ooh...
17:41
Liberty now up to minus 14 and a half. I know you're seeing 12 on the graphic, but this, this, like, move has just happened within, like, the last about half hour.
17:49
So- So you're saying now is the time to add to my Liberty quest. It could be. There we go. Okay.
17:52
I mean, what did, what did they say, to beat, to beat the woman you gotta, you gotta be, be the woman, you gotta beat the woman, I guess, and the Liberty were the champs.
17:59
Ooh, I thought he was going a different direction there. Last year. It was different. Wow. [laughs] I was going, uh, uh, deviating a little bit from the- Dodged, dodged a bullet there... Ric Flair quote. Yeah.
18:06
Um, all right. To, uh, by the way, what about your... Is it, so Fever? I think they're still gonna hang on and make the playoffs, but now they are in the eight spot.
18:14
They've been like four-five all year, and now they're down in the eight spot because of course, no Caitlin Clark. Mm-hmm. I think the timeframe is probably at the end of the month.
18:23
I thought it was gonna be tomorrow night when they play the Seattle Storm, but they've had so many injuries. They've had Ari McDonald go out for the year. They've had Sid Colson go out for the year.
18:31
They've had spicy Sophie Cunningham now out for the year. So this team very, very short-handed, but they've been a resilient bunch all year. I think they hang on. Sparks got a really tough schedule.
18:42
Sparks is the team in LA right below them right now. Uh, college football, I feel like I'm sort of contractually obligated to ask you about Texas-Ohio State and maybe even LSU-Clemson.
18:52
But, and, and you can comment on those, too. I'm curious about your Texas-Ohio State take primarily, but where is your favorite bet of the week in college football?
19:00
Yeah, and, and, and look, it, it's kind of a, it's tough to find, I think, a favorite bet. It's tougher now, number one, because you have all the national books, the retail books that put these lines out earlier.
19:11
It used to be they'd come out in Vegas like three weeks before kickoff, but these lines in week one get beaten into place.
19:18
So my favorite, like week one I just kind of hope to survive and just do okay so we got a profit in college football. Weeks two through four is when I really like it because then you have a shorter timeframe.
19:28
Then you're going on a week-to-week basis, and you d- you know, and you can time it, and you could look at the overreactions and what you saw in week one and then play those accordingly.
19:38
So I prefer those a little bit better. But, uh, a couple I did play. I already played, it was a better number.
19:43
I played, and I said it with Scott Seidenberg on Saturday night, I played UNLV-Sam Houston State over just because what we saw of UNLV's- Oh, yeah...
19:51
defense, and I know they were banged up, but Idaho State put up almost 550 yards on them. And then Sam Houston State in the loss to Western Kentucky, they were on the field for 86 plays. That's a lot of plays. Geez.
20:03
Even, even in week one, even though, you know, you're just coming out of camp and excited to play, you're not excited to be on defense 86 plays. So I did bet that. I also did bet, uh, I gotta give an ugly underdog here.
20:15
Please. And it has moved a little bit. I still think it's playable at 36, 36 and a half. It was 38 and a half. How about Georgia State against Ole Miss? We know that Lane- There you go.
20:24
Oh, yeah, that was moving this morning, I thought. We know that Lane Kiffin loves to run up the score on these lower teams. He do. However, he's gotta play an SEC team the following week.
20:34
They used to, he used to not have a conference game until October. Well, now you gotta go to Kentucky the next week, who did upset Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs last year down in Oxford, and gotta play Arkansas.
20:45
So how much is he gonna wanna show beating up lowly Georgia State? So I think, uh, the Panthers got a chance to hold inside the number. Wow. Um- Oh, they're, they're taking money. They're taking money, Wes.
20:56
You wanna g- you might wanna get in on that. Yeah. 36 and a half still. Al- al- already played. Okay. I think at 36, yeah, I think anything above 35 is a good take on Georgia State.
21:04
Yeah, I've seen a couple, a couple of the big offshores down to 35 already on that game. Texas-Ohio State. Buckeyes by one and a half now or two consensus, but we're seeing a one and a half now at DraftKings.
21:13
Yeah, and, and I lean Texas here, and, and I think some Ohio State money. It's been mostly Texas money so far.
21:18
I think you'll see some Ohio State money come in, and I think you'll end up with good two-way action come Saturday morning. But new deal for Ohio State, new quarterback, Julian Sayin.
21:28
You still have Jeremiah Smith, who may go down as the greatest Buckeye receiver in history. And by the way- That's saying something... he only just had one year. Yeah. Yeah, when you look at Chris Carter- Yeah...
21:35
and David Boston and all these guys in recent years have been- Yeah... drafted out of the program. Uh, uh, Ohio State's defense is what I think is gonna be the question mark. I think the offense is gonna be fine.
21:47
And the defense has a lot of talent, but you have a new coordinator, Matt Patricia, because Jim Knowles got plucked from Ohio State, is now at Penn State, who I'm very high on this year to win the whole thing, and the defensive line is all gone.
22:00
All those playmakers, all those disruptors up front are gone for Ohio State. Now, they don't rebuild, they reload. I know that that's a cliche, but Ohio State does.
22:08
However, you know, you're opening up with Texas here, and, and I think Texas, this is the proving spot for them. You know, are you for real? Are you for real? Are you a real national title contender?
22:19
What, what do they say on the social media? Is Texas back? Well, this is the chance to prove that they're back, and I don't disagree with the move on the Longhorns early. Yeah, Dr. Bob's gonna be on the show tomorrow.
22:30
He's got some pretty strong opinions, I'll just tease it with this, about Texas versus the field. Let's put it that way. That'll be tomorrow on the show. I'll be interested to hear that. Yeah. Um,
22:42
I'll, I'll leave it at that. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it very much. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1 on the old Twitter machine. Baseball next.
22:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Think you're better than the experts? Prove it in The Edge Boost Average Joe Contest.
23:00
It's the same format as the Circa Friday Football Invitational, but contestants are average Joes instead of the pros. It's free to play.
23:07
You can register any time throughout the season to still be eligible for weekly and quarterly prizes, and the grand prize is a spot in next year's 25 Pro Handicapper Circa Invitational field.
23:18
That's the Humans Contest, right? Yep. Sign up now at vsin.com/joe. That's vsin.com/joe. Should just be called the Matty Humans Invitational. No? No? Okay. Yeah, what do they, what do they call it?
23:29
The Fri- Friday Football Invitational, right? I can never get the word, the wording right. That's right. So that's why- Yeah... I was pausing over here, but I agree with you. Matt Humans has, has earned that. He has.
23:37
He has. The Matt Humans Invitational. Uh, Yue Yuan up a set on Ludmilla Samsonova. She won the first set 6-2. She's our plus 331 dog. Uh, but she is down a break in set number two.
23:50
Samsonova up 5-4 on her racket to try to even things up. And then our buddy Adam Walton won the first set as a $2 dog against Hugo Humbert. Remember, that's best of five on serve deep into the second set.
24:05
The two tennis plays that are going on. Still to come, Galan and what was the other one? McDonald. Galan and McDonald. We get tweets of beating the book, Kelly.
24:15
By the way, we're gonna have to get this whole three-hour timing thing right, 'cause we have a lot to catch up on. That's fine. Numbers guys. Wes is the man. I hope he's on every day on the network this fall.
24:23
I'm looking forward to the Christmas song power rankings. I don't think there are many more compelling people in this space than Wes Reynolds. Amen. Love Wes. Can I get an amen from you, Kelly? Amen. Jeez. Love Wes.
24:33
You're very silent. Amen. Kelly's, you know, just silent over there. Sh- should I repeat what I said off air? What'd you say off air? Well, it was like, I was like, "Wes, thanks for coming in.
24:40
I'm so glad I get, I get to say this finally." Oh, right. [laughs] "I'm very glad I don't get to talk to you tomorrow." [laughs] No call. Fir- first No Long Shots pod week in a very, very long time. I am going to...
24:50
I don't even know what to do on Tuesdays. Then what did he say? That some of the Ryder Cup guys are playing in Napa? And you're like, "Oh." Yeah.
24:54
Well, so there's always, it's the tricky, they have Napa in a couple weeks, and then it's the Ryder Cup, right? And then it's a couple more weeks before the fall series starts up.
25:03
So me and the boys hadn't really discussed whether we were gonna talk about Napa yet, but we're going to. Kevin, Kevin Ryan.
25:08
"Gill, as happy as I was for Tommy Fleetwood, I was disappointed that Rory wasn't part of the Euros waiting to congratulate him. Low class move," he says, "and I love Rory." Did you think that was low class?
25:17
I don't know. Um, no. And I, I, I always, in those situations- Rory was at the US Open. He was- In those, in those situations I try to just give, like compliment the guys who did hang around. But you never know- Yeah...
25:26
what's going on with other people. Never know. Charl, he was at, Rory was at, congratulating Novak at the US Open. Charles in Connecticut. Oh, yeah. He had tennis to get to. Yeah.
25:34
I forgot they said that on the broadcast. Yeah. Yeah, tennis to get to. He was going straight to the US Open. Uh, Charles in Connecticut s- says, "Conflicted.
25:40
I was gonna go get some gas now 'cause I'm going to a concert tonight and I don't wanna be late, but now I've got this third hour of ANG to listen to." Thank you, Charles. Uh, Raider Nation. "Thank you, Veesen.
25:49
It was difficult not having Gill for the week. My entire routine was thrown off. The retired life is sweet." Thank you, Raider Nation. Um, let's see.
25:57
I'm, I'm gonna join whoever made a GIF of me doing, like, a Jedi trick. JasonH11. "Mrs. Howell for me. Come on, guys." [laughs] "She's rich," he said. [laughs] Oh, sorry about it. All right, we got more.
26:08
We've got, we have a lot of catching up to do. All right. So I'd read more tweets, but we got a lot of catching up to do. Hey, guess what, Gill? What?
26:13
We're on three hours, not just today, but every day, so we got plenty of time to get to it. Oh, should I talk slower? [laughs] Let me do a, let's just do a two-hour show. We'll just talk slower. You all right?
26:22
[laughs] That'll do it. All right, uh, we, we've got to do a heat check on these baseball awards. AL MVP. Now, this did not change much from the last time we did it. Heat check.
26:36
Judge has gone from minus 150 to minus 160. That's Aaron Judge. Cal Raleigh remains at plus 110. Cal Raleigh with his 48th and 49th dingers yesterday, the most ever for a catcher. 49 homers and 106 RBI.
26:50
But Judge hasn't beat on all the slash numbers. Right, by the way, Judge, 40 and 92 homers and RBI. But Judge is 324, 439, 669 batting average on base and slugging. And Raleigh is a paltry 247, 353, 593 by comparison.
27:07
So I will just say this. We have been consistent, or at least I have from the beginning on this, Kelly. You have, yes. Which is, which is it's Aaron Judge's to lose.
27:15
By the way, the Mariners and the Yankees both in the playoff picture teetering, but still in the playoff picture. Not teetering that much, but they're, like, in the wildcard mix, not really for division.
27:25
Uh, although the Mariners are closer than the Yankees are, for sure. My point is, is that that's not really a factor at this point. My, my point has always been with this, if Cal Raleigh gets to 60, right?
27:36
He's at 49 now. If Cal Raleigh gets to 60, Cal Raleigh gets to 60, and Aaron Judge ends up with 49. This is how simplistic I think this ultimately is, Kelly. Yep.
27:47
If it's 60 versus 49 in home runs, that's the only stat that's gonna matter to people, and Cal Raleigh will win MVP. But if it's even 59 to 50 as opposed to 60 to 49, Aaron Judge is gonna win it.
28:03
So what are you saying is more significant there? The number 60 or just the differential? I'm just saying I'm trying to put my mind into a voter's mind. Yeah.
28:10
And I just think that if you hit 60, particularly as a catcher and a switch hitter, that that will be overwhelming to folks. But if it's 59 to 50, a bunch of those same folks won't see it the same way.
28:26
I know it's stupid, but that's how I handicap it. What are we at? We have six players all time that have hit 60 home runs. Yeah. I think it's, I think it is that simple.
28:37
I mean, if he hits, if he reaches that club- But then there's also gonna be the, the literal MVP voters who are, w- if, if you take Cal Raleigh out of the Mariners lineup, they still got all these home run hitters, and they still got J-Rod.
28:49
If you take Aaron Judge out of the Yankees lineup, really? What were they, four and six when he was away? You, have you bet this at all this season? No. Never. Are you considering jumping in? No. No, I'm not. Okay.
28:59
It's not that compelling to me. What price would you need to b- uh, need on Judge? Minus 120, are you in? Uh, it's more what would I need on R- well, mm, yeah, maybe. Mi- maybe minus 120. Okay. Yeah.
29:11
Yeah, 'cause I mean, it sounds like you'd still, that would be the only way you'd bet. Yeah, 'cause I, I just, I've said the same thing every time you ask. Yeah, you have.
29:17
I just think it's gonna come down to simply the home run count. Um, and that Cal Raleigh has to make it overwhelming. AL Cy Young. NL Cy Young. AL- Oh, I'm sorry. You're pointing at something. What?
29:28
Oh, oh, I'm just- Oh... pointing at something for myself. Oh. Didn't Gerrit Crochet throw a no-hitter over the weekend or something that I missed? This, these numbers- Well, okay... really swung wild.
29:35
So let's go to AL Cy Young. The last time we talked about this, right? The last time we talked about this, Tarik Skubal, this was two weeks ago, Kelly. Tarik Skubal was minus 425. Tarik Skubal, pardon me.
29:46
Tarik Skubal was minus 425, and Gerrit Crochet was plus 480. Okay? Huge gap. And I said, "Hey, uh, we have a new leader in the Tom Tango Cy Young tracker-" Yep... "and it's Crochet. 68.5 to 64.4.
30:00
If you're wondering what those numbers are, it is a simple formula. Innings pitched divided by two, minus earned runs, plus strikeouts divided by 10, plus wins.
30:08
It's none of these advanced stats that we like to prattle on about. These are what has correctly picked 32 of the last 38 Cy Young winners, last 19 years, both AL and NL.
30:19
So I'm just telling you what's happened with his last Rankings after the regular season by that formula it's picked 32 out of the last 38 and of the 6 he missed five finished in second place. Now it's Skubal minus 130,
30:34
Crochet even money and it's still Crochet now 73.9 in the Tango rankings, Skubal 69.7 so about the same margin. Crochet has one more win now from last time and he's 14 and five. Skubal remains at 11 and three.
30:53
Skubal has a, uh, an ERA advantage of.06. He has a whip advantage of, uh,.16 but Skubal has fewer K's than Crochet by seven.
31:09
Anyway, I'm just telling you the time to bet it was two weeks ago when I mentioned this with Crochet at plus four.
31:14
You know, there's no one thing- The Tango, the Tango number's the only thing keeping me off making a bet here on Skubal. Well, I- I, I just feel like the na- I mean, you know me b- a blight baseball fan.
31:24
The national conversation around Skubal all year long Yeah, but he had, he had a, um, he had a bad outing a couple outings ago and what, where are the Red Sox without Crochet also? Like I just- Mm. Yeah...
31:36
feel like, you could say where are the Tigers without Skubal but I j- I just, I just feel like that formula never, not never- Yeah, yeah... but rarely misses.
31:45
NL Cy Young this has gotten wider and a lot of it's gotten wider because Zach Wheeler is donezo.
31:51
So what was a three-man race between Paul Skeen, Zach Wheeler, and Christopher Sanchez, his, uh, uh, Wheeler's Philadelphia Phillies teammate is now really a two-headed monster between Skeens and Sanchez straight up and Sanchez has been great.
32:06
By the way, Skeens now minus 800, Sanchez plus 450. Sanchez 11 and four, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 whip and 169 K's. They're all great but none of it besides the wins,
32:19
and there's only three more wins 'cause Skeens is eight and nine, none of it's as good as Skeens. 2.07 ERA, 0.94 whip, 181 K's and that's with Skeens having a bad outing recently too. S- it still Skeens is to lose.
32:32
I wish I would've bet this last week. Matt and I were sitting here talking about this and this price had dipped down to, I, Skeens minus 300 or something like that 'cause Sanchez was all the way down to plus 250.
32:43
He might have even gotten shorter than that at some point. Thought Matt made a good point though where he, he was talking about
32:49
h- how it just, it, it just felt like Sanchez the odds were getting kind of, they were kind of replacing where Wheeler was at for not a great re- as much of a reason as there should be for him being number two, uh, on the odds board for this.
33:04
Uh, Zach Wheeler for those who missed it, uh, is gonna miss six to eight months or at least it's a six to eight month estimated recovery undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery. Uh, removed a blood clot.
33:17
Stuff's always scary, man. Oh, that is. Feels like we hear about, feels like don't we, it doesn't feel like we hear about three, three or four blood clots in major sports a year now at this point? Yeah.
33:27
Blood clots it feels like we're hearing more and more. S'pose- And it is a super serious thing... which may be a good thing. Maybe they're just catching more of them. Yeah.
33:34
Again, what, what sent, um, Chris Bosh into retirement. Mm-hmm. For a recurring blood clot problem. Uh, we wish Wheeler well. More baseball, top regular season record and some NFC North next.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back at Circa, Circa Resort and Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
33:59
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack wrapping up hour number three. Right. Do we stay here all day or we go now after this? You're allowed to go. Oh, but I could stay all day. You're encouraged to stay all day.
34:09
[laughs] Just stay, stay through everybody's show. Hey, guys. [laughs] Hey, I'm just gonna sit over here. Yeah. You can sit in the corner. Hey, guys. How you doing? Uh, let's recap all the best bets from today's show.
34:18
Uh, tennis going very well so far this morning. What could go wrong? But also what could go right? Could be a monster morning. Adam Walton is up two sets to none on Ugo Humbert as a $2 dog. Don't gak it, Adam.
34:34
You're playing well. And then Yue Yuan and Ludmilla Samsonova. Yue Yuan is a plus 331 dog. They are in set number three now, uh, early on on serve.
34:46
Still to come, Mackenzie McDonald minus 125 versus Jan-Lennard Struff and Daniel Elahi Galan. Not a member of the tribe. That cash is his plus 750. [laughs] You're just making up names now anyway. It's good.
34:58
But, but he's a plus 119 dog versus Rafael Colin Yon. So McDonald and Galan still to come on the men's side. Walton and Yuan going at it right now. Those are the tennis plays today.
35:09
By the way, in case you missed the futures, again, Iga to win, um, plus 352 was my top number. Also got our plus 349.
35:17
Iga to win her half, meaning get to the final at minus 105 and then Karolina Muchova to win Q3, uh, Q3 pardon me 14 to 1. Those are your tennis plays at the United States Open.
35:28
And let me just say this again if you don't like the United States Open, if you didn't like Daniil Medvedev's antics last night or these matches the, uh [lip smacks] Alexandra Ayala match yesterday that we won on as a plus 276 dog or Uchijima over Danilovic after Danilovic gakked seven match points- Danilovic...
35:49
it is just, it's the greatest. I don't know. If you don't like tennis I don't know what to tell you. Um- It's fantastic... Maddie Keys getting pushed right now first set tiebreaker. Oh. And did you see Barbora roll?
36:01
Yeah. Roll over Mboko. Zach Cohen said on the Beating the Book US Open tennis preview that he felt like the winner of the Krejcikova-Mboko match did he say would win the quarter I believe he said?
36:14
Yeah, I think it was something like that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And Krejcikova takes her down. Wow. Yeah, that's what I was saying before. I was like, "Really? Mboko has better or the same odds as Jessie Pegula?"
36:23
Everybody lost their minds. I mean, she was the one who had come out of... I mean, she had played well the past, past few tournaments, right?
36:28
But- No, she, she won in Montreal, which was unbelievable, and that's her home country. That's a great thing, but it's like, that doesn't make you- Yeah, her odds had gotten really- Yeah... yeah, that short. Come on.
36:37
I mean, she was 20 to one, we were looking at earlier, right? Yeah. 20 to one. Uh, just one for me. I added this weekend Bucs money line for week one against the Falcons. There you go. Uh, Adam Burke came on.
36:48
He's got a couple baseball plays today. Rays first five today, fading his Guardians, I believe, yes. Mm-hmm. Minus 105, and then the Padres as a dog today at plus 111.
36:58
Padres tied a top, uh, top the NL West with the Dodgers. Wes Reynolds, UNLV Sam Houston stayed over 60 and a half. He caught UNLV's act last week and said, "I've seen enough." Over 60 and a half on the Rebels.
37:11
All of that brought to you by gbank, the official bank of VSiN, by the way. Every show, every host, every guest, every sport as always recapped courtesy of gbank, the official bank of VSiN.
37:22
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37:47
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Thank you, uh, all, by the way, for all the kind tweets this morning about our three-hour- Yeah, it was awesome. It was awesome. Very, very nice.
37:57
We're looking forward to it. We're gonna be having fun with three hours. We've got, man, extra crew in here now working. Danny Higgins. Danny Higgins. Not here today, missing day one. That's a big red flag possibly.
38:10
It's our boy. But- Yeah... co-producer of a numbers game now. Co-producer. I've given him that title at least. Really? Co-producer. Would, would that make you a co-producer now? Yep.
38:20
Is that his- He's gonna take some work off my plate, yep. Oh, is that his official title, or is that just something you're giving him? That is his official title. Really? Yeah.
38:26
Oh, so is he, is he producer nine and a halfs? I don't know. That's why I said you gotta figure out if, if he deserves a number or not. Oh, boy, this is, this is troubling. Or also may- maybe we can see if he earns it.
38:34
Maybe he's gotta earn that number- Yeah, probably... over the first few weeks, you know? I'm, I'm pretty sure he's good though. I think he will be too. I'm sure. Except missing, missing day one. Oof. Yeah.
38:44
You know what we're gonna have to? We're gonna have to figure out, and I'll say this about me, not you.
38:47
I'm gonna have to figure out how to time the three hours better because i- i- fitting it all in, 'cause we went, "Oh," we, we sort of were like, "Let's, let's err on the side of having more stuff than we need." Yeah.
38:57
So we're not gonna get to the NFC North today is basically what we're saying. Well, we can always push stuff back. Okay. We can do it tomorrow. Yeah. The NFC North. Dr. Bob will do his homework. We'll do that anyway.
39:03
Let's do MLB best record odds. Uh, heat check on this as well. So right now the Milwaukee Brewers, despite a bit of a skid after their 14 wins to start the month of August, 14 in a row, franchise record winning streak.
39:17
Brewers to have the MLB best record, so in other words, 30, 31, 32 games left in the season depending on the team. Uh, Brewers right now minus 165 to end up with the best record.
39:28
Talking all of Major League Baseball here. They are currently 81 and 50, Kelly. 81 and 50. The next closest team is the Detroit Tigers, three and a half games back. So Milwaukee's minus 145, but we're showing minus 165.
39:43
Really shop around because DraftKings has this up, FanDuel has this up, and the numbers will be different at both places. Where are you looking at? FanDuel? I looked at FanDuel first last night. It was minus 175.
39:53
I looked at DraftKings this morning, it was minus 145. Oh, wow, so this could- So this may be up to, uh, this may be up to the minute.
40:00
So anyway, uh, Brewers are minus, well, whatever the Brewers are, they're the favorite. I've got them at minus 145. We're showing minus 165. Point being, Detroit is next, uh, record-wise at 78 and 54.
40:13
They are six to one. They're third, however, in the best record odds. The Phillies, who have the third-best record currently in baseball, a full four and a half behind Milwaukee, if you will, they're five to one.
40:26
Toronto, Chicago, meaning the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Padres. We'll just leave it there 'cause everybody else is further than nine games out at that point, so realistically that's the group of teams.
40:38
Uh, Toronto is five games back, as are the Cubs. Toronto is 16 to 1. The Cubs are 11 to 1 to end up with the best record in baseball.
40:47
And then it's rounded out by the Dodgers and the Padres, who are both seven games behind the Brewers. The Dodgers are 14 to 1. The Padres are 20 to 1 respectively.
40:56
Now, strength of schedule, remaining strength of schedule here, Kelly, leads me to two bets. Ooh, okay. Two bets. Two dogs and then a cat. If you are planning on betting this, I have two suggestions.
41:08
What do you think they are? I'm gonna go with- One of them I used, I gave every time we've done this... the Tigres. The Tigers, that's correct. And the Padres. No. Cubs. Yes.
41:21
So there is the strength of schedule added on the, remaining strength of schedule added on the right side of the screen if you're watching here. And what you will see is the Blue Jays and the Brewers and the Phillies,
41:32
they have much harder remaining schedules than do the rest of the teams. In fact, the Padres have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball with a 448 aggregate win percentage for the remaining opponents.
41:43
The Cubs have the second easiest remaining, 456 aggregate win percentage of remaining opponents. And the Dodgers are 20, or so, what, the Dodgers met makes them the fifth easiest,
41:56
and then the Tigers are the eighth easiest. Now, the Tigers to me has always been my answer every time we've done this, and they're still six to one. I still think they're worth a play at six to one.
42:06
Are you surprised they're longer than the Phillies? Yes, a little bit. Yeah, okay. Based, based on schedule and just based on the fact that,
42:14
I mean, if you l- if you drill down on these schedules, one of the other reasons why I come down to either the Tigers or Cubs besides there it is the 20, you know, again, Cubs with the second easiest schedule and the Tigers with the eighth easiest remaining schedule, is that when you actually analyze that, so that's just the aggregate number of their opponent win percentage, but if you look at them and the teams that they play, only the Tigers and Cubs
42:37
Right? So even the, as, as easy as the Dodgers' schedule is and the Padres and, you know, in terms of where they rank, they still have to play tough teams, right? The Phillies still have to play tough teams.
42:50
All, everybody has to, has at least a few games against equally or, or, you know, teams with records in the same sort of vicinity. The Tigers and the Cubs play nobody at this point.
43:02
And what I mean by that is, and I'll, I'll put that in actual team terms when I mean nobody. So the toughest teams that the Tigers play remaining on their schedule. You ready for this?
43:11
Three against the Red Sox, three against the Yankees. Nobody... Or, and three against the Mets. That's, those are the toughest games they have left. That's the Tigers.
43:20
The toughest games the Cubs have left, are you ready for this? Three against the Mets and four against the Reds. Everything else is Rockies, Nationals, Pirates, Braves, Giants, and what's the last one here? Rays.
43:34
So I think the Cubs at 11 to 1 and the Tigers at 6 to 1, those are the only teams I would consider betting here. I like it. I like it. Good breakdown. Well, thank you. You know.
43:46
So do you think there's- Figured I'd come prepared today... do you think there's a better chance, and I'll, I'll involve the crew in this too if they wanna chime in.
43:51
Do you think there's a better chance that the Brewers move 20 cents from when I sent the first graphic in- [laughs]... or that I screwed up a six with a four? I'm gonna go with the latter.
43:58
[laughs] I'm gonna go with the latter. Yeah, I think they're minus 165, yeah. If- 'Cause if they were minus 145, then you do start to get to the realm of- No, no, no, no, you were right. Yeah. It's minus 145 right now.
44:06
Oh, it is minus 145. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I typed up minus 165 earlier. Uh, oh, I was right. Okay, minus 145. Yeah. Correct. Yeah, so minus 145. So I don't know.
44:17
I, I'm just not as high as the Br- even when they were winning 14 in a row, I was never like, "Oh, Brewers, juggernaut." So we'll see how it goes. Just some food for thought. We'll do the NFC North tomorrow. Dr.
44:27
Bob, Drew Dincic, let's go tennis. Walton, you on. Let's get it done. Prop points next with John Hanson and enjoy-
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