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Aug 25, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026 | Hour 2
00:00
45:10
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Our number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, radio's Gil Alexander, television's Kelly Bidlin.
0:20
That's right. To my left, to your right, right there on your screen. What's up, YouTube TV? Uh, Deshaun Watson walking back his comments from yesterday.
0:27
We were all over him yesterday for saying, uh, it was disrespectful by the fans to boo him the other day. He, uh... Someone got to him. Sure. Someone said, "Hey, Deshaun, maybe reconsider."
0:38
That- that's one of those things, though, like it's, it's, what is it? Genie's out of the bottle. Like, you, you said what you said. You're- Toothpaste is out of the tube... toothpaste is out of the tube.
0:46
You said what you said. You can't go there to say, "Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't mean it." Like, no, no, no. You meant every word that you said. Mm-hmm. Part- You're, you're not wrong in totality about what you said.
0:57
You just should not have said that. Oh, before we get to Drew real quick, 'cause Drew Dinsick is standing by, one thing. Uh, you know, over the years here, w- I always say best listeners in the game.
1:05
I wanna say this before I forget. Mm-hmm. Best listeners in the game, and over the years, folks have been, like, so kind to, like, give gifts. Yeah. Uh, it's, it's like the most...
1:13
We don't expect gifts, but, like, I guess sometimes they win bets that we suggest, they get really happy, and I've got, over the years I've got, like, Iga Swiatek tennis cards, and Barry Bonds baseball cards.
1:23
It's just the nicest, nicest things in the world. Yesterday I got one of the greatest gifts ever.
1:28
Donny Miller, who listens to this show, Donny Miller, I don't remember the details of what he was, like, at a Cleveland Guardians thing or something, and he wasn't really familiar.
1:37
Anyway, his, his buddy tells him, "Oh, yeah, that, that," you know, mentions Hunter Gattis. He's like, "Oh, yeah, that's Hunter Gattis over there," da, da, da, da. Um, he goes, "Wait, did you say Hunter Gattis?"
1:46
And Donny remembers our worst beat of all time. The date was April 30th, 2024. Not like I don't remember that.
1:55
We were one out away from cashing 65 to one on the Cleveland Guardians, our first ever monthly bet, uh, the first March, April of 2024, and Hunter Gattis
2:05
gave up a one out ding-dong to Victor Caratini of the Houston Astros, crushing our bet. Wow. And so apparently- I do not remember these details... apparently they went o- Oh, trust me, I do. This is great.
2:16
They went over and they told Hunter Gattis this story, and Hunter Gattis, kind enough to, uh, sign this baseball, which Donny Miller brought over to us, Hunter Gattis, number 33, "Sorry, Gil."
2:26
Ah, it says sorry at the bottom. [laughs] I couldn't read that at first. That's great. That's awesome. So Donny Miller, thank you so much. That was very... It's both hysterical and, uh- Wow...
2:37
I, I wanna cry at the same time, so thank you. That's awesome. Good for you, Hunter Gattis, with the- Yeah... attitude a lot of athletes have these days. So that's right. That's awesome. Thank you, Hunter Gattis.
2:45
I still don't forgive you, but this goes a long way. Drew Dinsick joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
2:51
He is the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive with Adrian Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge, which he does with Jay Croucher.
2:58
You can follow him on Twitter @whale_capper, and hopefully not only, uh, this appearance today, but hopefully we can get in a US Open pod when you're here in Vegas this Friday. When are you coming to Vegas, man?
3:10
Thursday? Yeah. I'll be out there Thursday morning. Yeah, flying Thursday morning. Uh, and what a great story, uh, on the Hunter Gattis baseball. That's- You can put a dollar amount- Yes... on that future.
3:22
It's like- [laughs] You can put a dollar amount on that 65 to one that was not, uh, not realized. You cannot put a price on that baseball. You cannot. Well said. Priceless.
3:32
This is what I got out of this, a baseball from Hunter Gattis? [laughs] Hey, bad-- We, we've been doing this long enough. Bad beat stories are, they're, they're- Yeah... they're valuable, man.
3:42
They, they usually don't come- You know?... with a signed baseball, yeah, that's for sure. They sure don't. That was great. Yeah. Good on him. Good on him.
3:46
I'll let you know the next time I run into a Tennis Hardo out in Vegas when we're, uh, when we're out there for contest sign up that doesn't bring up Ons Jabeur 33 to one, 40 to one- [laughs] That's right...
3:55
whatever the price was, like- Oh, man. You know, there's, there's, uh- So many... there's, there's bad beats that will live in infamy among our, uh, our people. That's our people. That's r- that's correct.
4:03
We have a question. Uh- Mm-hmm... this, well, I read this question earlier, but I'll throw it to you 'cause he wants you to chime in on it as well. Mm-hmm.
4:09
And it's Shrek McPhee who says, "What would Carlitos' number," Carlos Alcaraz's number, "be for the US Open if he had played in Cincy, and what will the number be after round two if he looks like himself?" Ooh.
4:22
Uh, if he had played in Cincy, he'd probably be more like plus 125. Uh, we're assuming that, like, he played in Cincy and didn't embarrass himself. That's correct. Um- Mm-hmm... you know, the, there are...
4:35
I have mixed feelings about what I saw [laughs] in the practice, uh, in the practice round th- that he played against, uh, um, it, I, you know, not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination.
4:46
Daniel, uh, Merida, I forget his, uh, full- Merida Aguilar... Spanish name, but- Yes... Mer- Merida Aguilar. Mm-hmm. Uh, he's not a pushover. Like, that guy can play. No.
4:54
Uh, and he's actually had a pretty good, uh, hard court, uh, season so far, for whatever it's worth. But, um, uh, if that's the quality we're gonna get from Alcaraz, then, uh, I think 185 is just right.
5:05
Um, if, uh, he comes out and he looks like the Alcaraz we saw at the start of last year's US Open, who was very dangerous, then, uh, I would say that he's gonna shorten to probably right around pick 'em. Um, I would...
5:17
Th- the, the deal with Alcaraz is he sustained a wrist injury that it, that, that word with tennis players strikes fear in the heart of many of us who have been doing this for a long time.
5:30
Um, wrist injury derailed one of my favorite ever players to watch and bet on, Juan Martín del Potro. Mm-hmm. Uh, derailed, uh, Dominic Thiem.
5:39
Uh, and in general, uh, when it, you pair it with what makes Alcaraz a special tennis player, is very, very scary.
5:46
Alcaraz's, um, forehand, and really just his, his ability, his shot-making ability, in large part is fueled by his ability to generate top spin, which comes from wrist action.
5:58
Um, and he didn't tear a ligament in his wrist. He didn't need surgery. He didn't go under the knife. This was apparently, like, a wrist sheath in- like, was inflamed and just causing him discomfort.
6:09
Um, I thought the clips we saw of him, uh, like at the World Cup Uh, and just doing promotional stuff throughout the summer.
6:16
It looked to me like he lost a lot of muscle mass, uh, just because he wasn't working out to the degree that he would be normally for during int- you know, in play tennis season.
6:25
Um, I haven't seen, uh, s- distinct evidence that he's kind of regained that mass in, uh, in the interim month he's been ramping up for this tournament.
6:34
So I, I think he is likely a, uh, um, a pass, uh, at these type of prices.
6:40
Um, and, uh, I think that opens the door for long shot shopping in the absence of Jannik Sinner, uh, who, uh, we could spend a little bit of time talking about, I suppose. Um, this was, this is...
6:54
I'm, I'm, I'm wearing a loss already before we haven't even gotten to the draw yet. [laughs] So, uh, some of this is sour grapes, I'll just admit it.
7:04
Um, this was such a soft, uh, you know, uh, s- s- uh, withdrawal from this tournament. Um- Sure was, yeah...
7:13
I find it to, like, I find it, like, shaping my, like, long-term opinion of him in a way that I wasn't expecting. Um- Meaning the fragility? The- Just generally?
7:24
Not just the fra- yeah, the, the fragility or just, like, the, you know, like, the, like, the idea that, uh, he would have basically doctors and physios all kind of come back to him with, uh, "Yeah, everything's fine.
7:36
There's nothing structurally going on. You're fine." And then him electing, "Nah, I'm just not feeling right." Yeah. You know? Yeah, I thought it was a little weird too. To me, that's a really, really surprising.
7:47
And I, you know, the, the idea that he's gonna go through this season where Alcaraz missed two, maybe, you know, two and a half if you, if you wanna c- count him as a half participant in this US Open.
7:58
He missed two and a half, uh, Slams, and you only get Wimbledon out of it. Um, you know, it, it's, it's surprising. Uh, it's, it's confusing.
8:07
It feels, it feels very, very soft, honestly, and I, I don't, I don't know that, um, you know, I don't, I don't know that I'm gonna feel any better about this, uh, if it turns out that, you know, this decision ultimately provides him with a better and a healthier 2027 campaign.
8:25
But, uh, to me, this feels like he's just, he doesn't wanna, wanna deal with the heat. He doesn't wanna travel to the US.
8:30
He doesn't want to, for whatever reason, really put himself in harm's way, and I, I just don't understand.
8:37
That, that mentality is so foreign in the, you know, in the, um, shadow of, uh, you know, the Federer, Nadal, Djokovic era we've just been through. It's, it's, uh, it's tough for me to really rationalize.
8:48
Such a great, it's such a great call at the end there because if you, if anybody has seen the Nadal docuseries on Netflix, what that dude- Yeah...
8:55
went through in his career injury-wise, and then you see these guys just casually sort of, you know, beg out of these, uh, tournaments. Dude- It's pretty unbelievable...
9:04
Nadal dug himself out of an 0-2 hole against Medvedev in the Australian Open final with, like, a tear in his abdomen wall. Like, [laughs] it, it- It's just incredible...
9:13
this, uh, the, yeah, the, uh, uh, Djokovic, like, the, the, the, um, the physical stuff that these guys have put themselves through to get to where they've gotten in terms of accumulated championships is, is amazing.
9:26
And Sinner bowing out 'cause he's not feeling up to it, it just f- it, it's a v- leaving a very distasteful- Did you-... uh, vibe for me, so... did you already make a bet on him?
9:37
Is that why the bitterness is, is ratcheted up? Yeah. [laughs] Oh, okay. Yeah. That's what I... Yeah. I, I thought I was, uh, I thought, I mean, I, I, I wasn't fully staked.
9:45
I was waiting for the Alcaraz yes 'cause I figured that was gonna draw Sinner down into the sub 50s, but I had standing orders available to try to scoop it, uh, at, uh, prediction markets, and I caught the, uh, I caught the, the fall, the, the, the falling knife of someone- Whoa...
10:01
with the inside information of, uh- Whoa... Sinner was gonna pull, pull out.
10:05
So that day that it flashed from 60% to 25% or whatever it was, I ended up with a bag of Sinner, and I was like, "Oh, well, uh, this doesn't feel great." [laughs] Yeah.
10:16
So- So who's, so who's the- Uh, yeah, at, uh- Who's the bet now then, in your opinion? I think, uh, well, I'm gonna ride with, uh, Felix Auger-Aliassime. Oh, wow. Okay. Uh, 30 to 1. I think that's a fun one.
10:27
Um, I, I, I could make a case for many of these men who are in the 10 to 1 and longer range.
10:34
Um, obviously I've had a ton of success betting Rafael Ho- Hodar and Arthur Fils over the balance of 2026, so I have soft spots for both of them, but, uh, they're ra- ra- ranked right now where they're gonna need, uh, pretty favorable draws, I think.
10:48
Um, I'm, I'm cool on Medvedev after last week's disaster. Um, I'm cool on, uh, Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe as far as American runners.
10:57
I'm, I'm a little cool on Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton at price, um, but, uh, this is gonna be a very, very, very strange men's Slam. I think Zverev and Alcaraz are both passes at price.
11:08
I think Djokovic is sadly a pass at price, although I really, really wanted to have, like, a strong, this is it, number 25, Djokovic is gonna do this kind of opinion heading into this tournament.
11:19
It's just, it's, it's not manifesting on on-court performance just yet, so I think it's gonna have to be pass on him. Um, but, uh, FAA at a bomb price I think is gonna be my read. FAA 30 to 1.
11:31
Uh, Felix Auger-Aliassime has gotten to two Slam semis, never to a Slam final, both at the US Open, including last year. I remember betting on him successfully- Mm... a few times on the way to the semis last year.
11:43
Uh, football with Drew next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge.
11:53
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12:23
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13:09
Beating the book, Nemesis Enforcer, "I thought Alcaraz's injury was to his, uh, TFCC." You know what that stands for, Kelly? No. The triangular fibrocartilage complex. Well, that's what I said earlier in the show.
13:22
It's a tear or strain of the cartilage and ligaments on the pinky side of the wrist that stabilizes and cushions the joint. Uh, Nemesis Enforcer goes on to say, "T- uh, TFCC ruined Kyrgios and Del Potro.
13:35
The only player I remember to recover fully," he says, "Is Joker, but his was on his left hand." So not his dominant, not the one he's holding the racket in except on the backhand. Isn't that what Drew just said?
13:45
Uh- Basically... yeah, similar. Uh. I mean, not as technical. No, I don't believe he said a fibrocartilage. I, uh, and he, you know, should be better than that. Right. Scientist.
13:54
By the way, I al- oh, I did say fibrocartilage. Uh, this is from, uh, Real Nicks. "Will you ask Drew if there's only one tiny fish in that large tank behind him? It's disturbing me, LOL." Drew- I c- don't get me started.
14:06
I can't do this again. Well, Drew, I think that's, uh, that's the lead-in question. Is that a one tiny fish in your big tank behind you, Drew? Oh, we lost Drew. Can't really see him. Oh. Yeah. Say, say again, Drew?
14:19
There, there's small- We, we didn't have your mic on. Say again. There's a, there's a tiny school back there. A school. You can see a couple of these swimming. I see at least two. Yeah. Yeah, I see at least two.
14:26
They're tetra. Yeah. They like to hi- they hide behind the rocks. They don't like the bright lights. Um- I'm just, I'm old enough to remember when, uh, there was a Nadal- Yeah... and Djokovic and Federer- Yeah...
14:35
and yeah. Yeah. I had a, I had a whole s- tank of sick cichlids, but I made the, uh, c- rookie mistake of not putting a lid on the tank. Oh my gosh, no.
14:42
And they would chase each other around the tank and jump out, and, uh, it was a, uh, sad situation of counting them every day and being like, "Where, what the hell?" And then finding one on the floor.
14:52
And it was, uh- Didn't you, didn't you come back from a vacation or something to that horror? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It was, it was, uh, it wasn't great.
14:58
Um, I gotta replace the tank and just get one with a g- I'm gonna get a little bit bigger one. I'm gonna ha- it's gonna have a lid, [laughs] and I'm gonna go for, uh, another round of cichlids, maybe get an Oscar.
15:08
Um, so stay tuned. Did, did the, uh, did the wife have to tell you a story like you, that, that she took the fish to the doctor? Did she have to tell you to let you have it easy? [laughs] She go with that? No.
15:17
[laughs] She was more upset about it than I was- Yeah... honestly. Um- Wow... you know. Well, I, I wish you better luck here moving forward. We, we all m- we all miss those colorful fish before. Um, okay, to football.
15:30
How many- Mm... we, have we done all 32 teams, you and Andy, on the Deep Dive podcast? Uh, we got like four left, five left- Four left?... something like that. Wow, slackers. We're getting there.
15:38
I'm through like- Home stretch... I'm through like 17 or 18. Yeah. Yep. Um- We did all the good ones. The w- [laughs] we're doing the AFC South this week, and then we've saved the NFC South mercifully for last.
15:48
[laughs] Left for last. Uh, okay. What is the...
15:52
I, I've asked these k- questions in so many different ways, but at, at this point, what's the most outlying Drew Dincic take, where you feel like you're just way off, like you, you, the market is not seeing it as you are?
16:06
Or maybe, or maybe the opposite of that, which is you're just not getting what other people are seeing in X, Y, or Z.
16:15
Most of my, like, strong disagreements with market are more unit-based than they are overall team-based.
16:23
Um, here's a good example is, like, I'm not far off market with the Cincinnati Bengals price, but I'm far off market with my expectation of that defense compared to the, to the market.
16:34
Um, I have concerns about the offense, particularly the offensive line. Um, and so there's like a little bit of like a w- well, what do you do with that?
16:41
Well, if the offense is overrated and the defense is underrated, then pretty obviously Week One shouldn't be a 51 and a half point total against the Bucs.
16:49
Um, so I'm taking most of my opinion at this point into, um, Week One totals trying to get down.
16:56
And, um, uh, you know, the highlighting specifically d- you know, teams where I feel like the defense is ahead of the offense, where they're playing each other, like Bengals, Bucs, uh, I think is the strategy.
17:07
Um, the team that I'm probably surprised, I guess the most surprised that the market hasn't elevated, and this is a two-part surprise, um, it seems to me like there's been an obvious break to the good for the Ravens defense in getting Madubuike back.
17:26
Um, and people mentioned it a couple of times in passing, like, "Oh, cool."
17:31
But the reality is that's like a bit of a game changer for giving them an actual pass rush this year in addition to the Hendrickson ac- acquisition.
17:39
So it's, to me, it's like, okay, well, the, like the personnel pretty clearly were elevated on the defense.
17:45
I think the expectation of Jesse Minter, you know, running, uh, you know, a top five defense with the, with the personnel that he had in LA and now giving him an even, uh, better set of ingredients to cook with, including Ky- Kyle Hamilton, like this, this to me, uh, is stewing to be a, a pretty special unit, uh, this Ravens defense.
18:03
And, um, and I look at, um, you know, s- like s- s- here's a good example, like the, um, uh, the last undefeated team market, right? Mm-hmm.
18:14
Right now, uh, the Chiefs and the Rams somehow for some reason are at the top of this board. Um, well, I have the most likely team to go 4 and 0- Five and O, six and O, seven and O for me- Wow... is the Baltimore Ravens.
18:31
Wow.
18:31
[laughs] And so there's a pretty obvious, like, you know, they, like, the sequencing for them, um, with getting the Colts and Daniel Jones week one, uh, and, uh, you know, instead of playing him later in the season when he's more up to snuff, getting the Saints when they for sure will not have Jordan Tyson week two.
18:49
Um, you know, only a little bit of concern playing the Dallas Cowboys in Rio week three, and then you get Tennessee, Atlanta, Cleveland, bang, bang, bang.
18:58
Like, if you can get through that Dallas game, I'm pretty sure that this is your last undefeated team, and they're, like, in the 750, 800 range. If you shop around, actually, I saw a nine to one at one point.
19:09
Um, so I kind of see a pretty clear and obvious, uh, you know, kind of a market reaction here, where if we are through six weeks of the season and the Ravens are your last undefeated, and they're six and O, and their defense is playing at a top five level, and, you know, the, the market is not going to be treating this as, like, a, um, you know, a good team.
19:29
They're gonna vault them to, you know, the top of the AFC, I think, pretty aggressively. Um, that next stretch of games, Bengals, Bills, Jaguars, Chargers, is gonna obviously determine a lot.
19:40
[laughs] Um, but I think in terms of, like, if you're gonna try to time market entry and you wanna have exposure to teams with bigger, you know, higher upside, I think you kind of have to take the Ravens preseason expecting that that price is gonna come in, uh, as they, uh, you know, as they beat up on a couple tomato cans in, you know, in the early going there.
19:58
So, um, that's one kind of surprise that I'm, I'm s- I'm a little bit, uh, uh, a little bit, um...
20:06
I guess, actually, here's a g- I'm a little confused that there is as many people that are willing to stick their neck out on the Texans, and no one really kind of going to war with the Ravens, uh, as, like, their team in the AFC.
20:17
'Cause the AFC is pretty flat at the top. It's pretty, it's perceived as pretty wide open.
20:21
Um, and for, you know, I guess just because of the raw personnel on the Texans defense, people are gravitating in that direction, like that's gonna be... You know, if you can just get...
20:30
It, it's this is the next Seahawks kind of idea. But, uh, I don't know. DeMeco Ryans, not my guy as far as in-game decision-making. C.J. Stroud, not my guy as far as playoff clutch performing.
20:41
Um, and I'm definitely not as intrigued by the offensive, you know, ceiling for a team like the Texans as I am for a team like the Ravens, if you get a healthy 17 games out of Lamar Jackson.
20:52
So, um, yeah, to, to me, that, this is, that's sort of the one thing that I'm a little bit s- scratching my head a- around.
20:59
And maybe, you know, we're, we're not there yet, but, uh, you know, the Ravens seem to be taking the preseason very seriously.
21:06
Um, [laughs] they're obviously, uh, you know, kind of the defense and the dream pr- practice reports from, uh, Minnesota, I thought was fascinating.
21:14
It sounded like, you know, this unit is already got the defensive, uh, you know, kind of scheme that Mentor wants to run down cold, and they're doing it at a high level, and we haven't even got to week one yet.
21:25
So, uh, hoping that that unit stays healthy, um, and, uh, that can fuel this, this Ravens team to have a high floor.
21:33
Uh, and then if, uh, if and when the offense under Declan Doyle and, uh, you get some young contributions from Jacoby Lane and, and some of the, uh, some of the youth there, uh, could help, uh, kind of find a high ceiling for this offense to where the Ravens are, are really surprising to the goods, so, um- What an- Yeah, that's, that's the one that scratched my head.
21:51
What an outstanding, thorough answer to a very open-ended question. [laughs] 'Cause I, 'cause you're right. The Houston Texans, like, uh, just if we were just to do- We talked about it yesterday...
21:59
a snap answer of what, what's been the most consensus bullish opinion on any team, it's gotta be the Texans this off-season. Real quick, we have 60 seconds. Yeah. I'll try to, if you can squeeze these.
22:09
Anything week three preseason, and then from the guy who, who was, like, all over alt season win totals, is there one- Mm... sort of betting category you're looking toward more than anything this year?
22:20
I, I found that the, kind of the real, real juice in the alt win totals is kind of dried up. Yeah. So I'm doing more of the other exotic stuff that's out there, like last undefeated- Yeah...
22:31
um, most wins, most points scored, right? Like, there, you can get a, you can get a little bit higher upside score in those now. That's the s- but it's the same kind of concept.
22:39
So, um, uh, you know, most points scored, I think the Buffalo Bills and the Patriots are the two teams that pretty obviously stand out to me.
22:47
Um, you know, and, uh, and, and general, uh, uh, my, I, I didn't play any week three preseason- Yeah... but, uh, I got a, uh, I got a good amount of week one locked in. [laughs] Week one NFL? Yeah. Give us one.
23:00
Give us one right now. I mentioned Bucs, uh, Bucs, ch- uh, uh, Bengals under 51 and a half. Uh, Eagles, Commanders under 48. Aha. Drew Dincic, everybody. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. All right. Best of luck, guys.
23:16
Coming back on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The sharp plays in full effect mode.
23:32
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23:44
We got tweets, betting the book. I'm falling behind, Kelly. We got tweets. DrVanNostrand, "For so lo- for so long it sounded like the Kareem don't block it. Rocking the Ka- rocking the Kazan. Rocking the Kazan."
23:57
[laughs] That was not the words. Uh, Trib. Hey, this is our Trib. What up, Trib? What up, Trib? He said, uh, "Cirque or Survive is one of my favorite bands.
24:05
Emo rock at its best that features Anthony Green, the front man from the band Saosin. Don't ask how I know this. Lol." Okay. What up, Trib?
24:14
Matthew Mayberry, "So pumped for the two-week match play tournament to decide the Tour Championship. Needed to be done. Also love the group play and the singles at two different venues. Great job, PGA.
24:23
Looking forward to these changes for next year. Maybe college football should get Rolap involved." Rolap being, uh, the PGA Commish? Yeah. A new, uh p- I went to school with a Rolap. I think, uh, they gotta be related
24:34
Maybe, who knows? Hmm. Ex-NFL number two, Brian Rolapp, uh, yeah, making big changes Mine was a Todd Rolapp. Uh, 3JacquesH, 3131, "Gil, how many circus survivor entries will be on the Jags week one?
24:47
What if Deshaun leads the Browns to a huge road victory? What a happy..." [laughs] I see what you did here. Oh. He said, "What a happy ending that would be for him." Get it? Got it. Um, yes.
24:58
Uh, there's gonna be a lot on the Jags. That would be... Can I say it for the first time this year? That would be carnage. That's my, that's my, uh, football resolution this year, try to use that word less.
25:08
I am with you. I... L- Let's, let's hold each other accountable on that one. 'Cause I feel like I'm responsible for its proliferation, uh, to a degree. Yeah, right. No. Yeah. Yeah, we are. Yeah.
25:17
We're part of the problem, that's for sure. Part of the problem. Okay, Jaguars seven and a half point favorites, Lions seven-point favorites with the Saints coming to town.
25:25
The Chargers are your biggest week one favorite, 10 and a half with the Cardinals coming to town. Chargers are a future value select also, right? 'Cause after the first two weeks their schedule gets really hard.
25:35
Yeah, I will be using the Chargers in- Yeah, yeah... in, I, weeks one and two. For your multiple entries. With d- Yes, with different entries. Yeah. Bob L.
25:45
@mcbob1993 says, uh, "Don't wanna beat a dead horse," but he lets us know that Taco John's, uh, did in fact register the trademark Taco Tuesday in 1989. Well, then- So what was LeBron doing?
25:59
Did you not have a lawyer look this up? Well, why... Or are they suing everybody then? It's not just LeBron. As we- That's what was the point of us bringing it up. Yeah, but like, but- Everybody has a Taco Tuesday...
26:08
anybody who considers filing a trademark should do the research to find out if the trademark has already been filed. Right, which it had not been. What did they do? Which had not been, I believe I read in that article.
26:18
What year did they sue? 19- 1989. Another summer. Sound of the funky drummer. Uh, this is from, uh, Skit. "Hey Gil, when's the US Open pod coming out and where can we listen?
26:29
Got any to-make-quarterfinals bets you're eyeing?" Well, those aren't out yet, Skit. Uh, they, the, to...
26:35
Here's the deal, and this is always the tricky part about doing the tennis pods, is that we try, not always successfully, but in recent years almost always successfully, we try to put the pod out after the draw is announced.
26:47
The draw is going to be announced Thursday afternoon, Thursday midday. So we're going to do the podcast Friday morning post-draw, hoping that by that time these books will have put out
27:02
the quarter odds, meaning to win their respective quarters, one, two, three, four, both men's and women's. That's the, that's the, uh, the sort of balancing act you do with the, with the tennis podcast.
27:13
So we hope that that all times out okay. Betrbootsoff, "I keep hearing the MLB commentators say that Pete Crow-Armstrong is the best defender in the M- in, uh, Major League Baseball.
27:21
He's great, but he doesn't even play shortstop. Bobby Witt Jr. is absolutely incredible, the best defender in baseball in my opinion."
27:27
I don't, I don't think you're wrong there, Betrbootsoff, and I think the numbers back that up. Uh, Nemesis Enforcer also, uh, adds, "Fun fact, as a former Cowboys fanatic, they've never beaten the Ravens."
27:37
How about that? I stopped- Why are you a former Cowboys fanatic? You got off the, uh- I'm a former... the evil- I'm a rec- Train... I'm a recovering Cowboys fan, that's for sure.
27:47
GV, New Jersey/New York, "Does it count as an old school Columbo bet if Gil asks for it on the way into the commercial break?" 'Cause that's what happened with Drew, end of segment.
27:55
Oh, that was the old Jason Weingarten thing. Yeah. Jason Weingarten, right at the end of his segments, he would, he would prattle on about I'm not sure what for 10 minutes.
28:00
And then- He would tell us he didn't have anything... and then literally in the last 25 seconds, like Columbo would, "Eh, one more question." [laughs] Uh, Jason would throw out a great bet and it would happen.
28:09
So yeah, Dr- so Drew had the two week one bets on the way out there. Um, that was a great breakdown on the Ravens vis-a-vis the Texans. Mm-hmm. And last team to, what, or, or I should say last team to go...
28:21
How did he phrase it? Last team to go undefeated? Right. Yeah. Last undefeated team. There you go. We hit on the, uh, last winless, if you recall a few years back when we were at the D with Carolina at 15 to 1. Pow.
28:31
Hell yeah. Merrill, let's see. We'll, we'll dig into both those. Oh, and Cashingticketsiswhatitallabout says, "Please let's update, uh, the picture for you two boys. Kelly's new look needs a new picture, you guys.
28:42
Best on VSIN." Thank you. Dude. Kelly needs a new picture. He does. Wait, were you here? I heard a story yesterday. What? I heard a story yesterday about an attempt to, to, to actually fix this. Really? Yeah.
28:54
[laughs] Uh, a- apparently you don't know this story. No.
28:57
So, uh, Q, who does, who shoots all this stuff w- apparently was going to come in last week or did come in to shoot things to update some of our opens and stuff, and was very upset [laughs] when he found out I wasn't here.
29:10
Oh, um- I, I don't know if that means he didn't cover. Now, Ro- Rob was telling me this story yesterday. Oh, Q was, yeah, Q was in the studio. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. That's what he was shooting for. Oh.
29:18
To update those things. I had- And was very upset to learn that I wasn't here 'cause I was one of the biggest reasons he came. He, he didn't really tell me what he was specifically there for.
29:26
Yeah, that's what he was doing. Oh, okay. Well, I wish he'd have given us a warning. So JVT will be looking good and Kelly will be looking the same. Uh, we, we briefly went through the AFC yesterday.
29:34
We got into a whole sidebar conversation, just sort of a broad look at the AFC, and we got into a, we got into a whole thing about only three quarterbacks.
29:44
You throw Aaron Rodgers out 'cause Aaron Rodgers is gonna be 43 this year during the season, and he did it in the NFC.
29:50
But beyond Aaron Rodgers, there's only three quarterbacks in the AFC that have gotten to a Super Bowl. You're not winning it, gotten to a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Drake May.
30:01
Aaron Rodgers being sort of the outlier. That's it. So the notion that, what I was trying to say was the notion that, like, a Bo Nix or a C.J. Stroud, not trusting them in a playoff game,
30:15
and I think I started by saying Texans defense, Broncos defense, most solid units of anything in the AFC. I think Drew just disagreed with that with the, with the Ravens. But for me, those are the two most solid.
30:25
The notion that somehow you can't trust them in the playoffs, well, they're in a conference where nobody's gotten there besides those three names anyway: Mahomes, May, or Burrow.
30:33
So I don't know how far that goes in the AFC. The NFC Is, by the way, Ravens are the short shot to win the AFC at plus 470. Bills there at plus 510.
30:42
The NFC, just sort of a brief, you know, just the overview here on the NFC. I don't know, you know, it's the Rams and it's the Seahawks, and then it's everybody else. Do you agree with that topic sentence?
30:55
Or, or do you think that that's too simplistic? Going into the season- Ooh... are the Rams and Seahawks on a tier of their own? Let's phrase it that way. Meaning no Eagles, no Niners.
31:05
You're good, but you're not quite that good. Yes. No Lions, no Packers, no anybody else. You're not quite that good. Yeah. Yes, they're in a tier of their own. I think the Lions- There's, there's-...
31:17
probably deserve a little more credit.
31:19
That's where I, I'm just, I'm sitting over here thinking because I thi- I think I should, I'm not gonna speak for everybody, but I should end, start this season the way we ended last season.
31:29
It's, I, Rams and Seahawks are the best teams at football, and that, that was the Super Bowl, and I think that's what we're talking about still heading into this year with the Rams making the additions that they did. I,
31:40
I would say they're in a tier by themselves. I think you could make the argument there are a lot of teams in that next tier. I would agree. We were just talking off-air.
31:49
Let's just, uh, sit, tell people what we were talking about off-air. And I don't, and I don't feel, real quick, like I, the, that next tier, Eagles, Packers, Lions, 49ers- Yes... Bears, Cowboys, I- Agree with all that...
31:59
probably those teams. And I don't think any of those teams are that far behind, but I do think the Seahawks and Rams belong in their own tier at this point. It makes it tough to sort of rank.
32:10
We were just talking off-air about teams that have been, this is anecdotal to a degree- Yeah...
32:14
but this is doing this show five days a week and just taking in whatever information other people have, or not information, but opinions other people have. What are the teams that have been, to use the, uh,
32:24
the Gen Z term, what are the teams that have been the most glazed this off-season, right? That even sounded corny coming out of my mouth. Rams. [laughs] Rams, Texans, Bengals, Broncos. Well, we were doing the AFC.
32:40
And well, yes, but I'll throw the Rams in there as well. Yeah, yeah.
32:42
My point is that I think the team that has been the most underrated this off-season, Drew would just say it was the Ravens, I'm saying it's the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
32:50
No, I, I think you can make a strong argument for that. I don't really get how they're sort of ca- I mean, I do, 'cause it's Mi- 'cause, uh, it's Miles Garrett, maybe it's Aaron Donald, right? I get it.
33:00
But are we just kinda then sleeping on the defending Super Bowl champions? I feel like we are. I, there's two other teams I'll throw out. So okay, we, the, the buzziest teams in the NFC, a- and you're completely right.
33:11
I, I, absolutely. They've, the very little talked about the Seattle Seahawks a- and expectations at least from bettors from what I've heard over the past couple months.
33:19
Uh, but you know, it's tougher with the short shots too, right? I understand that. Tougher with the favorites. Eagles-Packers for being three-four on the board,
33:28
I, uh, st- I think I'm still waiting for someone to step up and say they're backing them to go win the NFC. Yeah, have you heard much p- Eagles or Packers love this off-season? No, you're right.
33:37
Again, I'll say about the Packers- 'Cause, 'cause the Lions' schedule's been brought up. 49ers have been a somewhat buzzy team, but like, okay, the injuries are piling up for them.
33:44
The Bears, of course, as they should be in my opinion. Packers though, again, on the point I made about them, they've been to the playoffs three years in a row.
33:51
But if there were no seven teams and it was just six teams in the playoffs, they would've gone to the playoffs in none of those times. Mm-hmm. So they squeak into the playoffs every year.
33:59
The Eagles, man, I want to hate Nick Sirianni, and I wanna hate on the Eagles, but the record over the last, uh, over his five years- He ke- I know, he's great... speaks for itself. So you can never count them out.
34:10
And their defense, by the way, I shouldn't sleep on their defense. Is awesome, yeah. They're top tier as well. Yeah, it's gonna be phenomenal. Offense, uh, we'll see. Mark Borchardt next, baseball.
34:18
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil, Kelly. Yo. In the hizzy.
34:37
Ah, now my, now my battery pack wants to go out. Bobby Getty's on Twitter, "Gil can do the show from Cali. I don't see why Danny can't do it from Montana. It's only a second full-time job.
34:47
I wanted Danny to have a European football segment. Where am I supposed to get my Copenhagen Towers updates? Come on, producer 10." Yeah. Good point. It's a weak effort from Danny. All true.
34:57
May- maybe he can text in updates. Can't do the show from Montana. Jack Olacuir.
35:01
"Gil and Kelly, it's that time of year when I listen to Kenny Chesney's song 'The Boys of Fall' and the video with Sean Payton talking to high school players at his old high school in Naperville, Illinois.
35:10
Takes me back to my high school coaching days. Miss those days." Wow, Jack i- Jack is, uh, pouring his soul out on Twitter this morning. I, I haven't seen an Olacuir in a- In a long time... in at least six months.
35:21
You know, I think the Olacuirs might just be football people. They might just be football people. Yeah. Yep. And then Tom F, T for three, "Dropping Public Enemy casually on a Tuesday morning, Gil.
35:30
Just saw them open for Guns N' Roses of all bands. Chuck still got that vice." Do they really? And then Stanford Wrong, quote, "Thought I was a donut, you tried to glaze me." Who's that from, by the way?
35:43
Sorry, the music, mu- sorry about the music, everybody. [laughs] At 30- Man, that segment went by quick. [laughs] That was quick. You remember that talk we had with Mark Borchardt? Man, he really, he was phenomenal.
35:54
We might've read tweets too long this time, Gil, officially. [laughs] Mark Borchardt joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, and he is still in Montana.
36:02
Speaking of Montana, uh, he hasn't been back in the desert in over a month I think it is now. He's helping Danny move in I heard. Uh, said he saw a bear or two yesterday on his UTV.
36:11
Mark Borchardt, base winner, joining us now, uh, on the line. How you doing, Mark? I'm doing tremendous. It's, I'm having a great time. Saw a couple bears, uh, over the last two days.
36:22
Went UTVing in the Stillwater Forest. It w- it's been incredible. And from a, from a, a betting standpoint, sports betting standpoint, August has been a really good month for me, uh, particularly the last week, you know?
36:34
I, I, I always feel bad when I miss out on a win streak. Uh, I, I think that there was a couple team, I think the Brewers earlier, um, had, had really good win y- of course the Red Sox had good win streaks.
36:46
I've missed out on all of those.
36:47
But Philly, um, I think I was on Philly pretty much every game of that win streak that they had, including the one where they came back from Four runs down in the ninth and, and I mean, as a bettor that's, that's such a good feeling.
36:59
It's just 'cause you just- Oh... you almost have that money like it's thrown away. All right, well I've lost that one. And then they come back and it, it makes you feel good.
37:06
But, uh, uh, between, between the results and then the progress that I'm making with the mon- monthly simulation, uh, Monte Carlos, I'm, I'm, I'm just enjoying life right now.
37:15
And, and of course Philly was my pick earlier, uh, with those monthly simulations. And they're still for me the pick to make right now with, with a little bit of value showing up.
37:25
And, uh, I've been doing the divisions too. So a lot, lot of stuff, Gil. Sorry, I, I- No, it's great... I'm, I'm high on life I guess. Yeah. This is what, this is what we live for. Your August was my July, man.
37:34
It's just you can't... It's just, you don't want it to end ever. Tennis and baseball for me in July. Uh, what was your number on the Phillies before this month started? It was 11 to one. Nice.
37:45
So- One win lead over the Padres right now... so really good. And what's interesting, you know, I, I wrote about this last, I think uh, maybe on Thursday or Friday.
37:53
It, you know, the Phillies actually had, what, there was a segment there where they, they kind of went down before that win streak.
37:59
So it, it kind of traces and what I'm, I'm, I'm building, and this will be ready for next year I think, is the odds all month for on each day. What the odds are, what my, my projections say.
38:11
And, uh, it's turning into a really cool application. And so, you know, getting it published and stuff is, is a little bit difficult. But like for me, uh, I'm, I'm able to use it and, and write about it and stuff.
38:21
So it's, it's really cool. And, and, uh, you know, it couldn't ha- could, hasn't played, it couldn't have played out any better to date, but you know, there's still a lot of baseball left here.
38:29
Uh, you know, not this month, but not only this month but, but in September as well. Six games left for your Phillies in this month of August. One win lead over the Padres, two win lead over the Red Sox, Cubs, and Rays.
38:41
And you said there's value. If people wanted to jump in now, you still think there's value on the Phillies' current price? Yeah, I have them, they're at, they're at DK plus 100. I have them at minus 231. Geez.
38:52
One of the things, I do the, I do the monthly division winners and, and this, this one's kind of an interesting one. You know, we've talked about the AL West and like nobody wants to win it.
39:01
Nobody wants to win the month either, Gil. You know, Texas is 11 and 11, Houston's 9 and 11. But what's interesting is Texas is minus 165 to win that division this month, and, uh, DK has Houston at, at plus 1300.
39:16
And I don't think it should be that. I think, I think Texas should be minus 114 and Houston should be plus 415. Uh, there's really good value with, with Houston.
39:24
I, I think Houston's looking pretty good not only, uh, in that division from a monthly standpoint, but in that division from, from the, the winning, winning that division standpoint.
39:35
And, uh, I, that was perplexing to me when they, when they, they fired their GM the other day. Uh, you know, my ratings have Houston the best hitting team in baseball.
39:44
And, uh, I don't think that he got enough credit for that, but who knows what, what happens in- internally with those organizations. Who knows? And then that's really...
39:51
And, and of course that's a hard thing to, to model too because is, is it, does it, does it create inner tur- turmoil within the team? But from a numbers standpoint, they're showing value, uh, in both spots, Gil.
40:02
Yeah, Dana Brown was the GM who was fired yesterday. Um, mutual parting as they, as they phrased it. But he was the, he's the guy, right? Like the trade deadline, he's one of these dogmatic, "We're always going for it.
40:15
We're never gonna capitulate at the, uh, trade deadline." He's one of those guys. And I wonder if philosophically, you know, here we are now this f- you know, few weeks past the, uh, the trade deadline.
40:26
The Rangers 66 and 66, the Astros 65 and 66. I get it, they were tied yesterday, I believe, um, when, when it happened. Maybe just internally they were like, "You know what? This ain't working, buddy.
40:36
And maybe we should have gone a different direction." But in the end, the Astros are very alive for the playoffs because of the, uh, anemic nature of that division.
40:43
Really the anemic nature of the, uh, the league in general in terms of a wild card also wouldn't be out of that picture. Um, okay. To your plays today, what did you end up with?
40:52
Well, this one's an interesting one, and I've been kind of following this team, uh, o- offensively. You know, St. Louis, for me, was a team that I had very low expectations on at the start of the year.
41:05
But they've, they've really kind of put themselves, although they're, they're probably not gonna make it, they, they actually put themselves into the discussion. Uh, but today they face my 151st pitcher.
41:15
I've got 156 pitchers in there in Chris Bassitt. [laughs] Oh, man. And, uh, all the, the sabermetric numbers on him are, are poor. Uh, and, and so I think that what you can do is you can play the first five here, St.
41:28
Louis team total, uh, over two and a half. And when I betted it was at plus 105, so I think that that's pretty good play.
41:35
Uh, you got a, the team that I've got 15th in baseball, decent offense against a, a pitcher that's, that's really bottom, bottom tier, Gil.
41:43
Any, uh, base winner parlay of the day to make Steve Fezzik's head explode off his body? Abso- absolutely. I've got... You know what? I've got two that I'll give out actually. Uh, I've got the Dodgers and Cleveland.
41:56
Uh, and then this, this one kind of went down overnight. I got it at a plus 194. But, uh, if, if you risk one, you're gonna win, uh, 1.77, so it's a plus 177. And I talked a little bit about Gavin Williams.
42:08
This hasn't quite played out the way I want it to about being the dark horse for the Cy Young.
42:12
But if you look at those strikeouts, he's only eight back off of Dy- Dylan Cease in the leader of strikeouts in MLB, and he's facing a team in the Angels.
42:21
Angels' worst BBK, a number that I like, walks divided by strikeouts. Uh, they've got the lowest in the league against the second highest pitcher, uh, from a strikeout standpoint, uh, in baseball.
42:34
So I think Cleveland, uh, minus 132 is good. And then this Dodger team, Gil, gosh. You, you [laughs] they're talking about Ohtani coming back to pitch, but you forget about Glasnow. Mm.
42:44
And every time you, you look at the best starting pitching, uh, in baseball and, and, and, uh, to- today, I, I think that they should be favored, uh, by almost, uh, minus 200, and they're at minus 149, minus 150-ish.
42:58
Uh, one of the things I like about that, this game too, is Freddie Freeman, uh, over his total bases.
43:04
I don't think I've given any, any of these total bases out on the show, but I might as well today because I'm in such a good mood. Over one and a half total bases- [laughs]... Freddie Freeman, plus 117.
43:13
And you look at his OPS, uh, he played a lot of game at, at Truist, and, uh, the OPS is, is I think it was like 844, so I'll take that. I'll take that going into, uh, into this game. And, and so those...
43:25
That's the, that's the parlay. And then I've been experimenting with these first five over fours, and I've got a parlay for... I got Kansas City, Toronto over four first five, Chicago, Arizona over four first five.
43:37
And all the numbers really kind of back that up, the Sabermetric- Wow... numbers that I use, Gil. Yeah. Wow. Kelly, you got all that? That's all. That's all. Nope, Danny does. Danny. [laughs] Danny's got them.
43:47
Um- Try to ask me that question next week... for, let's just say first five, St. Louis team total over two and a half, plus 105. Yeah. Pirates money line, plus 109.
43:56
Cleveland, Dodgers parlay, plus 177, and then, uh, some bonus bets right there at the end, which we'll have to get on. I, I, yeah, I forgot to talk, I even forgot to talk about Pittsburgh, but, uh- Yeah...
44:06
you know Skeens, I was looking at his numbers, uh, and he's down a little bit, but he's still pretty elite. He's, uh, I think up to what I have at, uh, my top 20 still, uh, number 17.
44:18
And then one of the things that's interesting about this game is the Pittsburgh bullpen, and this looks at, uh, strikeout percentage, walk rate, ground ball percentage, uh, over I think a, a curated timeframe that I think is, is, is...
44:31
I, I wanna say, I don't wanna say perfect, but it's ideal. And they're number three in baseball, uh, going up against the, the number one bullpen admittedly in the Pad, in the Padres.
44:39
But I think, uh, you know, getting a little bit of plus money on that's a, a good idea. Mark, you're the best. Uh, enjoy the outdoors in Montana. The desert will be there when you get back. Ab- absolutely, Gil.
44:50
It's gonna be a two-day drive back home, uh, on Sunday, so I'm not looking forward to that, but- Good... but, uh, I'll be back next week. Yeah. That's right, he has dogs, so they, they, they drive all the way.
44:59
Enjoy the flowers. Thank you, Mark. @basewinner, by the way, basewinner.com. Who will be the first NFL coach fired? Kelly and I try to profit off someone else's misery next.
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