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Aug 25, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 25, 2026 | Hour 3
00:00
45:13
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Our number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, here at Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
0:22
Uh, this week, as I mentioned yesterday, Thursday, not just Bill Krackenberg, but courtesy of the Crack Man, Jay Cohen, one of the founders of the World Sports Exchange, gonna join us.
0:34
He has written a new book, it's called Odds Man Out. I devoured it this weekend, two sittings, 350 pages, on my phone by the way, in PDF form. Didn't even have the hard copy. Oh, gosh. Off my phone. On your phone.
0:46
That's how good it was. Wow. I'm nearsighted, it's easy for me on the phone. Um, spectacular. Can't wait to have Jay Cohen on the show. Lots of questions. I got some tough questions too. I'm looking forward to it.
1:00
What just happened with the ear? What just happened right there? Yeah, see, this little box that controls our audio- Yep... when it loses battery power, I can't, it becomes a little useless.
1:08
So if I'm gonna hear you- Oh... I, I don't really want anything in my ear. Sorry about that. Put that back. By the way, Kelly, Kelly often, uh, leaves the studio on breaks, not often, but you know, multiple times a show.
1:17
Not multiple, a couple times a show. Yeah, once a show, once a show. Okay. Because- To be fair... because his bladder is not as powerful as some other people.
1:24
And today, or just now, he came back in the studio and he says to me, what did he say to me? I say, "I gotta tell you about this bathroom story on air," okay? On air. Gotta tell me about a bathroom story.
1:32
First of all, packed bathroom at 9:00 AM on a, uh, Tuesday morning. Oh my God, I forgot what day it was too. You did that at the beginning of the show. Oh, can we interject this of we love Circle, we love this place.
1:42
It's the greatest sportsbook on earth. It's the greatest, uh, pool experience at Stadium Swim. The bathroom design of the building is a little quirky. Very sneaky. There are none on this side of the building.
1:54
You have to go to the other side of the building for that matter. You have to go to the other side of the building. All right. So I gotta run to the other side of that book- Yeah...
2:00
uh, in, you know, three and a half minutes, uh, right, right behind that big screen, right where it says fuel. Uh- What happened? So I, so I'm in there.
2:06
It's like clear, clearly guy's first week doing the, uh, bathroom attendant job 'cause there's prob- Oh...
2:10
there's probably three or four dudes lined up at the urinal, and he, he just walks in and ask, starts asking everybody how they're doing. [laughs] I thought it was really funny. It's awkward. I almost lost it.
2:20
And I was the only guy who answered. I'm like, "I'm doing well. How you doing, man?" [laughs] He literally went one by one. Did you, did you- He's like, "How are you? How are you?"... did you raise your arm and point?
2:28
Did you really do that? [laughs] I did not do that. Oh, okay. I probably raised the head, though. [laughs] I was gonna say, that was pretty daredevilish. Jason- Oh, I was dying laughing. [laughs] That was hilarious.
2:37
He's like, "Hey." He's like, "How are you guys? How are you? How are you?" He's, he's just schmoozing for tips. Oh, it was very nice. Very nice guy.
2:43
Jason Stark, also, uh, saw Public Enemy open for GNR, Guns N' Roses, a couple weeks ago at Saratoga. Wow. Funniest thing of that was Flavor Flav was at the horse track the day before and did riders up. Wow.
2:54
That's an amazing picture he included. He sure did. Flavor towering over the jockey. Uh, String Fellow Hawk, "You thought I'd donut, you tried to glaze me," oh, yes, Eric B. and Rakim. Eric B. is president.
3:07
Make them clap to this. I got your back, Gil. Thank you, String Fellow. Uh, oversight on my part.
3:13
Jeff Erickson letting everybody know he'll be on the show here momentarily, and we are excited to have him here momentarily. Um, Jeff's going to, uh, come on, talk fantasy with us.
3:23
He's got some, uh, some plays in Major League Baseball for us here momentarily, and he also lets us know that, uh, of course, he and Nick Whale will be on Prop Points, top of the hour, all of that. Uh, and then Willie B.
3:35
Benton, "Don't look now, Gil, but 16-year-old American and 2026 junior Roland Garros runner-up Michael Antonius is absolutely bodying Henry Searle in qualifiers [laughs] this morning.
3:45
Second consecutive day a 16-year-old wild card won their qualifying match. The future is bright." Thanks for chiming in on that, we appreciate it. Uh, okay. We never like to see a man lose his job, nor a lady. No.
3:58
But because the little corner of the world that we come from is about profiting and making money on wagering, well, we're not above talking about first NFL head coach fired.
4:10
This is a very, uh, c- can we say that we, we kind of, we kind of smile at the expense of whoever? We're like, "This is fun." It's just, it like s- uh, it's kinda like I love, we love fewest wins more than most wins.
4:23
We do. We do. To me, this is like this. Yeah. Hey, I, so to me, this is more interesting than Coach of the Year. Well put. More interesting. Okay. So who is the, uh, who's the favorite? Who's the short shot? Your boy.
4:34
Dan Quinn, Washington Commodores, two to one. And, uh, I don't disagree. The schedule is brutality early in the season. And although Adam Peters, um, hired him a couple years back, if this goes terribly wrong,
4:53
I don't, I don't disagree with him being the short shot. Todd Bowles is interesting. Todd Bowles is next at plus 350. Uh, Todd Bowles, as, at the helm of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it has been four seasons.
5:08
You know what the records have been? 8-9, 9-8, 10-7, 8-9. Mediocrity. What did they do in the playoffs?
5:15
Lost in the wild card round first year, won the wild card round the second year, but then lost in the divisional round. Third year, lost to Jayden Daniels in the wild card round. Last year, missed the playoffs entirely.
5:25
The thing with Todd Bowles is that the Bucs, and you can sort of document this from year to year, every one of those seasons, they started out great. Mm-hmm. 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, and even 5-1 that season.
5:42
And then it just goes terribly wrong in the middle of the season every single one of those years, year by year, losing five of six after that, losing seven of nine, losing five of six.
5:52
Lost four of five after that first run. Right. So if Todd Bowles doesn't even get out to the good start, which is usually his staple- Or if they again have the mid-season swoon, I understand why he's plus 350.
6:07
Very fairly on the hot seat. Yes. Right? Both, both the guys we started with. They, I think absolutely be- belong at the top here. Aaron Glenn is four to one because, well, how can I put this? He's Aaron Glenn. Right.
6:17
And they're the Jets. Like a little- I don't have much to add on that one... little shocking he's even back to start this year. Yeah. That was shocking.
6:24
Al- although this is a team I keep getting closer and closer and closer to betting over a win total on. Is that... Oh, really? Okay. Yeah. Zach Taylor's nine to one. The Bengals don't fire people,
6:35
and they certainly don't fire them mid-season, so I just have trouble with this one.
6:39
But- Well, I get the Zach Taylor, 'cause I think a lot of us just over the years have been like, "Do we, do, do we even know if Zach Taylor's a good coach, or is it just Joe Burrow, here's the ball-" Right, right, right, right.
6:47
"... and throw it to Ja'Marr Chase," right? Yeah. Do we know if Pat Riley's a good coach? I mean, you know, same thing. Hmm. Yeah. Do we know if Phil Jackson's a great coach? I don't know. I think Phil's the better...
6:58
Yeah. Really? 'Cause you had Shaq and Kobe, and then you had a guy by the name of MJ before that, so I don't... I mean, I don't know.
7:03
No, I said [laughs] the, I think, I meant that, that's the better comparison for a [laughs] guy. Oh, yeah, sorry. I, I- Yeah, you're right. Yeah, this is a better comparison. Here's the guy I'm looking at.
7:10
Shane Steichen, I'm looking at you. 10 to one. Now, Shane Steichen's career at the helm of the, uh, Indianapolis Colts goes a little something like this in three years: nine and eight, eight and nine, eight and nine.
7:22
That's mediocrity too. But guess what? Those records, unlike Todd Bowles with the Bucs, who's playing in the NFC South, that doesn't get you anywhere in the AFC South.
7:33
Those nine and eight, eight and nine, and eight and nine records, missed playoffs, missed playoffs, missed playoffs. And remember last year,
7:41
the first year they missed the playoffs after losing a win and in season finale to the Texans. Who could forget that? Is that the game where Todd says he beat me in the mega pod because of that? Yeah. That was the...
7:52
Was that the Davis Mills game? Yes. Was that the Lovie Smith game? Yeah. That was Lovie Smith- Mm-hmm... 's last, uh, flipping the bird to the Texans. That was incredible.
8:01
So by, by winning, in other words, they didn't get the, the better draft pick.
8:06
Uh, 2024, Shane Steichen and the Colts, they were eliminated from playoff contention late in the year following a week 17 loss to the Giants of all teams. And then last year, remember, they started out eight and two.
8:16
Who could forget, right? Yeah. And then they suffered a, uh, late season collapse, lost its final seven games to miss the playoffs for St- for Steichen's third consecutive year.
8:26
So Steichen's O for three on making the playoffs, and last year was the most dramatic fall. They lost their last seven games. I forgot that detail.
8:32
Yeah, I, I, th- I was gonna say, this is a great call by you 'cause I kinda v- uh, glossed over that yesterday- Yes... when I was kinda l- looking at these.
8:39
So Shane Steichen, to me, that's the one that falls off the cliff the quickest. Now, does he get, does he get a Daniel Jones injury excuse? No. I don't think so either. I don't think he will get that excuse.
8:56
I don't think so either. Because he has three seasons where he didn't make the playoffs- Mm-hmm... and people aren't gonna give him that out.
9:01
This is also, like I, uh, things that might come into play with a after the season voted on award. You know what I mean?
9:08
Like, I think there's some of those things that can come into play more with those conversations, Gil, but when we were talking about- This is all, all...
9:15
This is just a fan base and owner reaction in the middle of a season. All it takes is a bad start after a bad finish to the season last year. I- Oh, totally. I, I'm with you.
9:24
St- I, Steichen 10 to one, that's a good call. Yeah. Anybody else longer than that? Yeah. I mean, I, I'll bring him up. We talked about him last segment.
9:31
I've, I've never fully understood it, but my God, do people hate Nick Sirianni. I, I mean, that city's gonna go nuts if this team gets off to a slow start.
9:40
I, I, 20 to one, I have no idea why Kevin O'Connell's there with him, uh, at that sa- those same odds. I, I could see a world where N- that happens with Nick Sirianni.
9:49
I don't think it happens with, uh, Kevin O'Connell at all. You know, I- The one I wanted to ask you about with this market is- Wait, wait, can we not... Let, let's, let's... Okay, ask the question.
9:59
I'll get back to Sirianni. No, no, go to Sirianni. Um- 'Cause th- then I've got a bunch of long shots I'm gonna throw at you.
10:04
Unlike what I just told you about Todd Bowles and Nick Sirianni, here, here are the Eagles records in his five years. I know. It's incredible, man.
10:10
Okay, first year they were nine and eight, they lost in the wild card round. Still got to the playoffs, though. Yep. Second year, 14 and three, lost in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs. Yep. Won the NFC. Super Bowl.
10:19
Third year, finished 11 and six, lost in the wild card round to the Bucs. Fourth year, won the Super Bowl, won the NFC East 14 and three, won the Super Bowl, beat the Chiefs. Super Bowl.
10:28
Last year, reached the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year, losing in the wild card round to the Niners.
10:32
So in other words, he's five for five in the playoffs, he's been to two Super Bowls, he's won one of the Super Bowls. The other three years he did lose to the wild card round.
10:39
But you can't fire the dude with that record. I don't... Gil, I wouldn't think so either, but did you hear any of the public reaction around this Eagles team last year?
10:47
Well- It, it made it sound like he was running this thing into the ground. No, wait a minute. I was a guy, I was a guy, when he gave up coordinator ship- Mm-hmm... right, when he gave up play calling- Yeah...
10:57
then I, I was one of the guys who was like, "Well, if this did go wrong..."
10:59
Now, this was a year or two ago, I can't remember now, where I was like, "Okay, well, if it goes wrong after he lets go, then what is he really standing on?" But now we're five years in,
11:09
you can't, you can't fire him on, like, a five-game losing streak even now. The record is too good. I don't think so. It's f- it's... but, but it's Philly.
11:19
Who knows the public reaction that goes into a five-game losing streak to start. I don't- Well- But quick- One, one thing I can think we agree on, he's, he's, he's damn likable, that's for sure. Yeah, right. Yeah, yeah.
11:28
Yes. Totally. Yeah. Uh, okay, real quick. Are we sure that a first-year coach can't get fired? [laughs] No, we're not. If it, if you go, "Oh, it's 10-" It's rarely happened. Yeah. Who are you, who are you thinking about?
11:40
Like Urban Meyer and Bobby Petrino are the two you- No, who are you thinking about currently? Uh, on the other side. Kelly Bidlin with the tease. Jeff Erickson will join us as well. It's a numbers game with VSiN.
11:51
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11:58
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12:06
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12:22
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12:59
Bet sharp, look square. Uh, we were gonna start off talking, uh, baseball with Jeff Erickson, but why don't we bring in Jeff for, uh, for your, your Coach Long Shot first fired, shall we? Okay. Yeah, sure.
13:10
Uh, Jeff Erickson joins us now. He is, of course, the co-host- All right...
13:12
of Prop Points at the top of the hour, which he does each and every Monday through Friday at 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern here on the network, which he does with Nick Whalen.
13:20
Jeff joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Jeff, we're, uh... First of all, good morning to you, sir. How are you? You good, yeah? Good morning. Doing well. Good.
13:27
Um, we're- The media tour day for Jeff Erickson, apparently. Yeah. Oh. I copied you on a couple extra tweets. Sorry about that, boys. [laughs] Oh, that's okay. That's okay. Hey. I enjoyed seeing it.
13:36
Yeah, he's tweeting us about what he's gonna do at home later. He's gonna wash some dishes, you know. [laughs] Um, what are- Yeah... what are you doing? Yep, exactly. What's the, what's the day filled with today for you?
13:44
I already did a podcast. I don't know if you guys have ever had my good friend Christopher Harris on. If not, you should. He's great. Harris Football.
13:50
Uh, did his podcast on five safe players that we could, uh, each, each were drafting, and had to define what safe meant and all that.
13:57
That was, uh, that was the start of it today, but I, you know, after you guys I've got, uh, Prop Points in about 45 minutes. Looking forward to that. Uh, we've got a big draft today.
14:05
It's the Rotowire Stake League, where- Ooh... I have a big side bet every year.
14:09
We do a steak dinner with a group of us here at Taylor's Steakhouse in LA, and the bottom four teams have to pay for the b- the top four teams, essentially, although last place has a double share of paying.
14:19
Um, and so this is a big auction. That's a good rule. This is a very big league. Who cares about winning a league? You just don't want to be a buyer. Yeah.
14:24
Um, so that, that includes drinks, desserts, appetizers, you name it. Just no doggy bags. You can only eat for yourself. Um, no, like, stupid $200 bottles of wine or anything like that. But, um- I, I freaking love it...
14:35
that's a big thing. Uh- I love- Yeah... I love, like, detailed traditions. They have to follow precise rules. It also occurs to me, this is why women will never understand us, things like this, right? They just...
14:45
They're like, "What are you doing with your fake football league? What is this?" Well, i- it, it, it's th- [laughs]... stuff that gets tougher as you get older is, is- That's right...
14:53
finding time with your male friends, right? That's it. This is a punishment- That's right... and a way to go spend some time with your friends. Wait, I can't leave this hanging. Yeah.
14:59
So, uh, not, not to rehash the podcast that you did, but give us the five safe players that you came up with. So, um, and I tried to do different price points there. The, uh, I think Derrick Henry's an obvious one.
15:10
Uh, you just, there's ob- you're always gonna be able to get him at the end of the second round. Y- yeah, there's, there's some age concerns, sure, but he's also superhuman. He's also an alien.
15:20
He's different than everybody else. Devonte Smith on the Eagles, I love clicking on him. Uh, he's not the trendy receiver anymore. He was for about 12 seconds, but then other people passed him by again in ADP.
15:31
Uh, at tight end, it's a sneaky one. Harold Fanton, I think is just super safe. Hmm. He did this with three bad quarterbacks last year. I don't care that Sean Watson's starting this year.
15:38
He's a good player and should be drafted where he's going, and he, he's at, he's at a very safe price. Uh, you a- there's... And my favorite one is Dak Prescott.
15:47
There's always money in the banana stand when it comes to Dak Prescott. You wanna wait on quarterbacks, he's there. You got a floor of 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns.
15:55
It's just, he's always there as QB 10, and I know I can just click on him, and I know I'm going to be fine. Was that four or five? I counted four. That's four. Okay. Math is hard. Yeah. Um, I [laughs]
16:06
bear with me as I have to remember exactly who I had as the fifth one. That's all right.
16:09
I, I love Da- As, as you were thinking about that, I will just say that of those four, the only one I was surprised by, because I found myself nodding- Okay...
16:16
to three of those four, I was a little surprised by Devonte Smith, a little bit. Me too. Me too. Yeah. Me too. I'm very interested to see how he does this year with- Yeah... well, I don't...
16:25
Jalen Hurts questions, I guess, although I'm a little bit more confident in him than most, too, it seems. But no AJ Brown there is a big deal. Yeah. And how he, how he performs as the guy.
16:35
Jeff, did we, uh, figure out the fifth? Yes, we did. Uh, it's Devo- uh, it, it's, uh, DeAndre Swift. Uh, he never loved and never, like, a huge ceiling guy, but- Mm-hmm...
16:45
you know, the Bears running offense is going to be good again. Ben Johnson's fantastic at designing run plays. Um, and Kyle Munyoungai's already hurt. They didn't bring in any real competition at running back.
16:54
Swift is gonna be a solid guy, and he actually was very efficient last year, too. You know you're getting 30 to 40 catches and around 1,000 rushing yards. I'll take that as my RB2 all the time.
17:04
Not Kelly's favorite Swift, and it's not Taylor Swift, either. Phil Swift, the proprietor of Flex Seal, is still Kelly's favorite Swift. Dude, have you seen- We've all had that... like, the newest commercials? Yes.
17:13
He p- he takes, he takes, like, like, uh- We're gonna take our same old boat, Gil, and we're gonna punch some holes in it, and we're gonna use the Flex Seal putty.
17:22
Five steel arrows through a boat, and then claims you can Flex Seal them and go haphazardly on the lake. The new Billy Mays. I love it. Oh, he's amazing. He's amazing. What a role model.
17:31
Which, which is a bridge to Billy Swift. Mariners and Rangers. Great- Oh... if we wanna keep on going down the Swift boat lane here. Good, good call. Uh, okay. It's like you do this professionally.
17:38
Real q- [laughs] real quick before we get to baseball plays, we were just going over first NFL coach fired. And I don't know if this is a thing- Okay...
17:44
that you have thought of, um, but this was a, this is a market that we find, you know, at the, terrible at the expense of someone losing their job, but it's pretty interesting from a gambling perspective.
17:53
For me, the best value on the board that I saw was Shane Steichen of the Colts at 10 to 1. I'm not sure if you have any thoughts. We thought the favorites, though, are correct. Yeah.
18:03
Uh, and I didn't see all the lines, but, uh, Steichen obvious- Can we throw that up on the screen in its form? Yeah. Yeah.
18:08
Uh, Steichen's, Steichen's an obvious one, just because the Colts, uh, I, I think they are at a bit of a crossroads. They, they made a big trade last year for, uh, Sauce Gardner.
18:16
They, they gave up their future to try to win now. Yeah. They committed to Da- to Daniel Jones. I mean, I, I get all that. My guy, Zach Taylor, can't believe he's the dean of the AFC North coaches right now.
18:26
The dean of this. But this is the world we live in. Yeah. Um, but he has to get off to a good start this year The, the thing working against that is the Bengals never do bold moves- They never do...
18:35
mid-season, in-season. Yeah. Never, ever do. Uh, yeah, uh, yeah, Aaron, uh, Aaron Glenn, we've seen plenty of organizational history. That makes plenty of sense. I like that one. I think that's, that's pretty good.
18:46
Todd Bowles, I mean, uh, you know, the vibes haven't been great with the Bucs.
18:50
You know, I- that's the one thing, and I think he's exactly the type of coach that could mess up, like, a go for it, don't go for it, you know, use your challenge, not use your challenge situation there.
18:59
You know, he, he struggled with that in the past, so I could see that as well. Some of these are kinda crazy, like Campbell, come on. Yeah. Vrabel, Saleh, come on. Ridiculous, ridiculous.
19:08
Those, those guys aren't getting fired this year. Yeah. And, and by the way, we were talking about Sirianni, and I was saying there's no way- Mm... you can fire him.
19:14
I will say this, 'cause you brought up the fourth down stuff, like go for it, not go for it. He is the worst. Like, he completely is like, "What will I get the least boos from?
19:23
I'll do this," now it feels like with Sirianni. There's never any, uh, method to it, uh, in my opinion. Um, so anyway, if you, if you were... I don't know.
19:30
I don't wanna hold you to a bet here, but what looks good to you? Anything here? No, no bet? Nah, I, I, I'd say- Yeah... Steichen because I don't think- Me too... the Colts are good. Yeah, me too.
19:40
Um, I, I, I, I think they are in real trouble, and I'm not even buying the whole Daniel Jones is doing every play in camp thing. I mean, he is. I, I'm not disputing that.
19:49
I am not buying that when it comes to when it matters it'll be good. Yeah. I, I, I think that this is gonna be a rough team. That's my guy in this. They lost seven in a row to end last season.
20:00
Okay, to Major League Baseball. You have a couple K props for us. You have a side, you have a total. Let's start with the, uh, strikeout props for us. All right. Let's go Aaron Nola to start off with here.
20:10
Uh, first of all, right-handed pitchers strike out more batters in Safeco. All right? I'm gonna call it Safeco. Bear with me here. You know what I'm saying. Yeah. Uh, in, in T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
20:19
Uh, Nola has been cromulent lately. He's been a guy that's pitched a lot better recently than he has, uh, earlier in the year. He's much better on the road than he is in Citizens Bank Ballpark.
20:29
Uh, he, he's had eight, nine, and eight strikeouts respectively the last three times out. We are paying minus money for the five and a half.
20:35
If you wanna, you know, you know, live dangerously, I too like to live dangerously, go to six and a half, get some plus money. Best, uh, five and a half price I found was minus 120 at Circa.
20:45
Do you, do you do any prediction markets at all, Jeff, at all? I don't. Do you... Oh, yeah, 'cause people are having fun. I don't, and I'm behind the curve. I know I'm behind the curve.
20:53
I, I just- No, I only bring it up because- I don't know. I just never got into it...
20:56
I only bring it up because, uh, Joe Peta gave a great talk at BetBash, and he was talking about how he manipulates K prop markets specifically, but also with, with pricing.
21:04
It's, uh, it's just a whole sidebar heaven of, of that kind of thing. You have, you also have a Jacob deGrom K prop for us today. Yeah, Chicago White Sox, uh, strikeout, uh...
21:16
Uh, first of all, the last 30 games, their strikeout percentage is over, uh, 25%. Against righties, it's over 23%. Like, at home, it's over 23%. All top 10 figures. Jacob deGrom rolled last time out.
21:27
Health concerns are gone. We're getting that K prop at a pretty nice price. Uh, we're getting, uh, the over six and a half Ks at minus 110 at Circa. Again, Circa's been pretty good on the prices lately.
21:38
Um, I, I like the deGrom over six and a half strikeout prop. All right. The, am I allowed to call them the surging Kansas City Royals? I think that's, uh, that's an exaggeration. They're not going anywhere.
21:47
But they did, uh, sweep the Tigers. They're at Rogers Centre in Toronto. What are you playing here? Let's say hot, the, uh- Yeah... Kansas City Royals there.
21:56
I mean, hey, anytime a team has won eight in a row, you gotta classify them as such. Yeah. Uh, I, I like the pitching just, uh, ma- match up, Lugo versus Sh- Scherzer. I think Scherzer is a guy that you can attack.
22:07
I know he's been a little bit better lately than he was earlier this year. Uh, but I'm just gonna keep riding the Royals wave a little bit here, betting against Scherzer and getting plus money to do so.
22:15
Uh, plus 116 over at, I think that was, uh, I, I forgot to write the, the bo-... Oh, it was DraftKings is where I found that one at.
22:22
Royals, for those scoring at home, eight games out of a playoff position, eight games out of a wild card. And then finally, uh, the Rockies and the Nationals today in DC.
22:33
Yeah, and, uh, anytime I get a Nationals game at eight and a half, I have t- I'm a- a- automatically concer- uh, interested there.
22:41
It's not a, uh, Cade Cavalli start, so it doesn't mean we're getting a good Nationals starter. Uh, they're, they've been reliably over all year long, and the Rockies are rolling out a guy making his debut in Mason Adams.
22:51
So, uh, I like Andrew Alvarez, but you also get the Nats bullpen. So let's go with the over on that game. Jeff, thank you so much.
22:57
We'll check in at Prop Points top of the hour with Nick, and good luck in your big old draft today as well. All right. Thanks, guys. Jeff Erickson, everybody, @Jeff, with a J, underscore Erickson.
23:07
He's not one of these Geoffs. No, he's not. No. No confusion there. No confusion at all. How about a fast futures look from DraftKings next? These are great. On a numbers game coming up.
23:18
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23:35
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23:47
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23:58
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24:09
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets beating the book. Jack Oliquire checking back in. He says, "Kelly FYI, Jimmy and I," that's Jimmy Oliquire and Jack Oliquire. Yep.
24:20
Uh, they'll be in town September 10th to sign up for Circa Contest. Definitely stop by the ANG studio. We're also hoping the interview Jimmy and I did for the quest for 18.7 million makes it past the cutting room floor.
24:30
Uh, Nick- We'll see. We shall see. Only two episodes left, I believe. Yeah. We shall see. That's, I think there's a lot of Kelly interviews that were left on the, uh, cutting room floor, so. Kelly Bidlin.
24:39
Very excited about Kelly Bidlin being on the show, though. Kelly did a great job. Sk- skit, I'm in Florida. Oh no, we're 50 cents ahead of a move in a tennis match. This is never good. He says, "I'm in Florida.
24:53
We only have Hard Rock available. Cantina Lese, which I got at minus 149, is now minus 200," he says.
24:59
"Do you still see value or should I go for a game/set spread minus 2 and a half games, minus 120 straight sets is plus 125?"
25:05
Well, I won't comment on that last part 'cause I'd have to run the numbers, but I would not play it at minus 200. No, I would not. Um, [tongue clicks]
25:13
ScrabbleStar, "Gil, sorry I'm way behind, but have to say that I'd temper my expectations for the Bears' scoring. The 2013 Broncos had Peyton tossing 55 touchdown passes and almost 5,500 yards. Replacing Caleb..."
25:25
Yeah, he means Williams. He said Wilson. "Replacing Caleb Williams in that equation doesn't compute. Also, their foes will be prepared." Well, ScrabbleStar, I think you and I, uh, disagree.
25:34
You don't have to be Peyton Manning. Waiting for the first, uh- I'm just trying to get him the most passing yards... for Chicago Caleb mistake finally. There you go. Finally heard it. I was waiting for that one. Mark J.
25:44
Wilson. Oh, he's... Uh, Ryan Kramer was on with, uh, Dave and Jensen before you. He has VaTech going all the way. He says, Kramer's a V- is a VaTech alum.
25:52
"Chokie's gonna choke, especially with the king of chokers at the helm." Wow. I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but that was a play on Hokies. Uh, yes.
26:01
Uh, Bill Walsh, not that Bill Walsh, "Didn't realize how much of the show my 11-year-old son had been picking up this summer until we got in the car a little while ago-" Uh-oh...
26:08
and he goes, 'Hey, Kelly's back from Nashville.'" [laughs] "Enjoy the temporary bump in the preteen demo. School starts Thursday." There we go. Yes. All right. Hey. We're skewing younger, Gil. Yeah, man.
26:20
You know, before we had a lockdown on the highly coveted 55 to 75-year-old demo, but we have spread out. Oh, don't worry. I might had to spend 20 to 30 minutes yesterday after the show helping someone with their app.
26:32
Oh, did you really? So yeah, don't worry. We still got that demo locked up. Oh, man. Danny helped out, too. Uh, Colin Murphy, "I think Aaron Glenn needs to be at the top of that list." First coach fired.
26:43
Eric B., though not- Though I gotta give you my long shot still... Eric B., though, not Eric B. & Rakim, but Eric B. Iceberg, uh, underscore Mountain. "I agree with Eric Jefferson. Have Chris Harris on the show.
26:54
Ask him about the m- his mixtapes. Jeff knows about him." You calling Eric... Are you calling Jeff Erickson Eric Jefferson? That's funny.
27:01
Uh, No Emo Doug, "Are we sure the 49ers and Browns won't play poorly due to national shame and embarrassment?" Okay. And Chance Copperpot, "For my fast future-" Okay...
27:10
I took the Vikings exactly three wins after five games [laughs] at plus 228. Um, okay. Real quick before we get, before we get to Kelly's, 'cause we have a lot to get to. I got a lot of things to clean up.
27:20
We have a lot of things to clean up. Yeah. One is the Taco Tuesday thing. Let's start with that. You wanna start with that? Yeah. Beyond fascinating, and thank you for how many people tweeted in about Taco John's- Yes...
27:28
'cause- Yes... I don't... I, when you fir- when you read the first one- John's Fox Place, thank you for, uh, sending that out as well...
27:35
w- when you read the first one, I was like, all right, so someone from a region of the country is getting upset and protected. I thought the, I thought the same thing. Taco John's- Yeah...
27:42
held the trademark- Since 1989... since 1989 to, like, roughly five years ago. Unsolid since 1989. In every state but New Jersey. Don't ask me about why New Jersey, but every state but New Jersey. Mm-hmm.
27:55
So this, what we were joking about with LeBron and Taco Bell earlier, like, became a thing. So Taco Bell basically challenged Taco John in trademark court or wherever, wherever you do this at.
28:07
Well, Taco John must have brought it up. Oh, or maybe they didn't bring it up.
28:10
Taco John was trying, had been trying to enforce it as much as they possibly could over that y- uh, you know, what, 20-year span or whatever that was. Yeah.
28:17
Uh, and Taco Bell sta- decided to fight back finally, saying that it was way too common used of a phrase, that they could not, uh, claim to have, uh, uh, that sole, uh, come up with that and to own that, right? Mm-hmm.
28:29
Own the rights of that 'cause it's used everywhere. Uh, basically Taco John couldn't afford to fight Taco Bell in court over this. I, I cannot stand our system. So they lost this.
28:36
This is now, it i- it is a, a, what was it? Fair use or common use phrase. So, so what's, what's the point of them even having it then? I know. That sucks.
28:44
Uh- You just don't have enough money to enforce it when a massive conglomerate like Yum, isn't it Yum Foods or whatever that owns Taco Bell- [laughs]... comes after you. Yeah. The fact that you know- I think I know it...
28:54
the fact that you know the um- Right?... the umbrella company. Yeah, the umbrella company. [laughs] It's, it's, it's KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell.
29:00
Okay, other thing to clean up, who was your long shot coach to get fired first? Okay, okay, so bring, I... It's very unlikely, right, that a first-year coach gets fired, but there, you just kinda read a tweet about it.
29:11
Man, there's a couple nightmare scenarios brewing, and one of them I see in Cleveland, Ohio. Hmm. I don't know that anybody was all that excited for Todd Monken to be hired in the first place.
29:21
I, I know I, I was a little shocked to hear that Todd Monken was gonna be taking over as a head coach. Uh, you've got this disaster at quarterback.
29:29
You're telling me there's not a scenario where Cleveland starts out, like, 0 and 7 and just Deshaun is all of a sudden hurt, and we don't see him for months and months and months.
29:38
And Todd Monken, thanks for coming in, but we've got to- [laughs]... reset this entire thing. Brass Monken. He's 100 to 1. Yeah. I'm just... Like, I, I know it's very unlikely for a first-year guy, but- You know what?
29:50
I don't hate it... I mean, we were joking about some of the other ones. Like, there are- Do you like that kind of, uh, positive corroboration? You know what? I don't hate it. No, it's be- Yeah. I do.
30:00
It's, it's lu- It's be- better than you just changing the topic and moving on- No, no... 'cause that means you disagree. Lukewarm, lukewarm, uh, corroboration, but I, I don't hate it.
30:07
It's like the Hardwood Handicappers group chat. Mm-hmm. One of us throws out a bet in there, and there's no response whatsoever. It's very clear that, I mean, the other two, the other two do not like it.
30:15
It's like the equivalent of a, "I don't disagree with that." [laughs] Okay. [laughs] Like, some of these other names on the list we didn't even get to. They're, they're kinda la- Like, Kyle Shanahan's 40 to 1.
30:25
Yeah, stop it. Jim Harbaugh, [laughs] 50 to 1. What does Jim Harbaugh have to do to get fired this year? [laughs] It would have to be a disaster. Recruiting violations. [laughs] Recruiting violations. At least seven.
30:36
Okay, I'm all caught up. Okay. Nice walk up. I, I, I just wanted to make sure to get that. We got to the Taco John thing. All right.
30:41
We'll, we'll bleed this into the next segment, but, but we were talking about this yesterday. DraftKings has these thing called fast futures. Not just DraftKings, right? Caesars has- Yes...
30:48
s- not called- September specials... it's not called fast futures, right. September specials, still three games in September But essentially it's, it's like sort of the equivalent of our monthly baseball bets.
30:57
In other words, it just reduces the run, the, the ramp. Mm-hmm. Reduces the runway on these things. Um, all my metaphors are stinking up here. But you got three games to make bets on.
31:06
So passing leader after three weeks, for instance, right? Fast futures. Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford,
31:16
plus 750 for most passing yards, and you will see that Matthew Stafford is the shortest of the shots for most passing touchdowns at nine to one. First column, passing yards, if it's too small for you.
31:27
Second column, most passing touchdowns with the corresponding betting odds. But this is a three-game arc. That's all you, do you, you know, you just look at schedules and you try to figure it out.
31:36
Now, football's a little more difficult than baseball. Baseball, individual sport disguised as a team sport. Football, the ultimate team sport. So there's a lot of moving parts here.
31:46
You know, some people would analyze who are the, are any of these quarterbacks facing three really bad secondaries in a row? How do you assess the secondaries though, because nothing has been played so far?
31:56
Are you gonna rely on your priors? Are you good at who the replacements are? So there's a lot of handicapping going on here. Would you make a bet? I think I would. There, there is a long shot not listed.
32:07
Fir- first of all- Oh... I, I think Dak Prescott very, should be the favorite. I would even have him above Joe Burrow. Like we, we are very familiar with that offense. Mm-hmm. And, and great breakdown, right?
32:19
And I, I, some of the, uh, the, the, uh, the continuity that you have on the offense, especially with these receivers, is huge. So I look, I think Dak, Joe Burrow, we've seen these guys do it before.
32:29
Matthew Stafford, we understand it. But Dak- Right... gets to face the Giants on the road and then Washington at home, and then Baltimore, what's that? In Rio? Brazil.
32:40
What, I still can't believe the Dallas Cowboys and Lamar Jackson are playing overseas, but they are. Uh, that's a pretty soft be kidding. I think he, I think he's deserved favorite.
32:49
I think betting him at plus 750 isn't crazy for most passing yards. Long shot play. You're going with Cam Ward. No. Oh, who you going with? His opponent week one. Oh. Geno Smith. Oh, God. 55 to one.
33:02
It's Tennessee, Green Bay, and Detroit. Tennessee's like real ball game, but then you're playing catch up against Green Bay and at Detroit. Yeah. It's gonna be leaning a lot on Geno to throw it, throw that ball around.
33:14
Playing catch up matters here. I mean, that's why Jacoby Brissett's 20 to one, right? Is that it's not because they think Jacoby Brissett's great, it's because the Cardinals suck and they gotta play catch up.
33:21
What's Geno's number? 55. What is Caleb Williams' number? Hmm. Because I'm gonna stick- Hold on... I'm gonna stick with my season-long guy here in the first three, three games. 22 to one, just off the board.
33:34
Most passing yards, he's 22 to one? Well, he should be on the board then. Hmm. He, I guess he moved up. They did move him from yesterday. Yeah. They did. He's, they did. He's right.
33:42
[laughs] I mean, Caleb Williams would be my shot at 22 to one, but I mean, these are, again, different ways... Remember before baseball season, we always said the beauty of the baseball menu is there's like- Yeah...
33:52
say what you will about prediction markets, and I love prediction markets, but sports books will always have a place because the breadth of their menu is awesome. DraftKings may be the greatest example of that.
34:02
People love betting different things. I'm glad that there, you know, these foot- with every passing year, football expands as well. Mm-hmm. And these fast futures are great. We'll get to a couple more on the other side.
34:12
We'll also recap the bets. I got five tennis plays today. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:18
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:33
One more thing on the, uh, Taco Tuesday thing. And by the way- We ever ends here. And by the way to everybody, enjoy your Taco Tuesdays around the country today. Yes.
34:42
I don't know, how, how did we get on this in the first place? I don't even remember anymore. You forgot which day it was. Oh, right. Off the Taco Show. And then you said, "Happy Taco Tuesday." Yeah, so now, yeah.
34:49
And then boom. Taco- And then, and then LeBron got brought up... Taco Tuesdays at Nick's Crispy Tacos in San Francisco for years on Polk Street. [laughs] Oh my God. So it was Taco John's had it in 49 states.
35:04
They abandoned in 2023 because, as you said, they were not interested in going through a long protract- protracted, costly legal fight.
35:12
Well, the 50th state Taco Tuesday trademark was owned by Gregory's Restaurant and Bar in Summers Po- uh, Summers, what is it? Sum- Summers Point, New Jersey, pardon me. They too, in October of 2023, said
35:26
they capitulated. They're like, "Well, we're, we're not getting in this fight either. We're not gonna, we're not gonna defend our trademark." It's incredible.
35:32
Ta- Taco Bell, big stack Taco Bell, just pushing everybody around. "Can you afford to come play with us? Nope, you can't." What a system. Good idea. Good idea 30 years ago, we're gonna kill it. What a system.
35:46
Um- That really is sad... in LFC Title Records says elementary students were a rising demographic for you guys until JVT ruined Christmas. Oh, I don't know that story. Did he ruin Christmas for them?
35:55
Oh, yeah, yeah, he said something on air he'd not supposed to. About Santa? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well. I think I did that once about the Easter Bunny, like 15 years, 20 years ago. Sorry. Sorry, kids. No, Tooth Fairy.
36:05
I did the Tooth Fairy. Pardon me, I ruined the Tooth Fairy. Oh, man. Uh, okay. We have five tennis bets today. They're all real, kids. Five tennis bets today.
36:12
Uh, yesterday we split on the dogs, made 35 cents, took all day long. Well, it didn't take all day long, but the matches were late. Today you got five matches strewn. Let's be- let's end where we began. Well done.
36:23
Strewn throughout the day. Uh, on the men's side, we'll take the two on the men's side at the bottom there first, 'cause I think these are the first to go. Uh, Rinki Hijikata, I got a plus 102 versus Rafael Colin Yon.
36:33
You can get him at a better number, about 10, 15 cents better. So I'm on the wrong side of that. Now, Cantina Alise, we have 50 cents of CLV in some spots.
36:43
At least, uh, anywhere between 35 to 50 cents of CLV versus Benjamin Bonzi. That was a mispriced. If you're w- you, you rarely see me play favorites of c- of the high minus 140s, now you know the reason why. Yeah.
36:56
He's minus 200 What does all that mean? That means I, we had 50 cents on a Shuai Zhang match last week, and she lost. So it doesn't mean a darn thing. Let's just get them both.
37:07
Rinki Hijikata and Quentin Halys, spelled Quentin Halys on the men's side, uh, those two plays. And then on the ladies' side- Quentin Halys... Zhang Shuai -125 versus Maria Timofeeva.
37:20
Anna Bondar -130 versus Kristina Buça, and Daria Vidmanova, Vidmanova -145 versus Kimberly Birrell. Uh, so a bunch of, uh, a weird day for us because usually I'm all about the plus money and all the time plus money.
37:34
How many, what did you say? 85% plus money for me, 80%, something like that? If, if someone randomly asked me to guess on your tennis betting- Yeah... I would have, I would say 75% dogs- Yeah... 75% women.
37:52
Hmm. I don't think the women part is right, but I know that you feel that way. You don't think it's that high? I don't think it's that high. Okay. Yeah. I'll check.
37:58
Uh, and then, uh, uh, US Open, Iga to win the US Open at 7/1. She's plummeting. Carlos Alcaraz, misspelled there on the screen, uh, to win the US Open at +175. By the way, you can get a better number than I did.
38:10
He's about plus one... You, you gotta shop around 'cause some spots he's lower than that, some spots he's better than that. Um, so check it out. But again, four months off with the wrist injury,
38:21
we shall see how Carlitos goes. Yeah, US Open pod Friday with Drew Dincic and hopefully Zach Cohen as well. Can't wait. Post draw. Draw coming up on Thursday. Wow, you get Zach just back from Europe and- Yeah...
38:35
and, uh, Drew just before he goes for, to Hawaii. That's right. He's gotta- Way to go. Way to thread the needle there... uh, and then I made these bets in the NFL.
38:43
Nick Benito, defensive player of the year, 14/1, and Caleb Williams, passing yards leader, 20/1. I stayed at my desk till 7:30 last night writing, writing for Adam Burke, doing our homework assignments.
38:53
How many more best bets did you do? Uh, I've got three so far, but there's a couple others I might add. The Jets I hinted at earlier. I keep staring at that win total. I think I'm only gonna have two in there.
39:07
I think I'm going over on the Jets win total, and it's gonna be gross. [laughs] Uh, NBA bet, finally got around to this. We talked about this- Oh, look at this... a couple weeks ago.
39:14
What the- Matias Bouzelas to win most improved player at 40/1. What percentage of our audience do you think know where- Oh, great question... Matias Bouzelas plays? S- uh, I'll go with 13%.
39:26
He is on the Chicago Bulls, okay? Chicago Bulls. I am over under win total. Good second year, age 21, 16.3 points per game for Matias Bouzelas, uh, in 77 games played and started. Almost six rebounds over two assists.
39:41
That team gonna be a little bit better, uh, this upcoming year. He's gonna continue to be a focal point though as they try to, uh, build around him.
39:50
Third-year player, you and I often talk, that's that timeline you're looking for, uh, with those third-year player, third, fourth-year players, and I think the top of that market is flawed.
39:59
It is a bunch of second-year players that are the favorites there. And historically, second-year players do not register.
40:05
Don't do well, and we've had, in recent years, voters or guys that are, uh, th- they're not voters every year, but, like, Brian Windhorst of the world have said they will not consider a second-year player for that award.
40:16
What- That, that says a lot. By the way, can I say this about Brian Windhorst- Yeah... who has been on this show but not for a long time? Mm-hmm. One of the few
40:25
guys on mainstream media, regardless of sport, who every time he talks I wanna hear what he has to say. Yeah. He's great. Um- Uh, and he's, I think he does, he does a great job with being careful. Yes.
40:36
When, and when he chooses his words- Oh, and when he gets animated about something, he picks his- He does, yeah... yeah, he picks his spots well. Drew Dincic earlier on the show.
40:44
Drew @whale_capper on Twitter, Deep Dive podcast, Bet The Edge podcast. Felix Auger-Aliassime to win the US Open on the men's side 30/1.
40:53
FAA got to the semis last year, got to the semis one year before that, I think in 2021. Uh, he's not playing anything in week three of the preseason. He's punting on that. But week one
41:04
of the National Football League regular season, he's got a couple totals. Um, Buccaneers, Bengals under 51.5. Commanders, Eagles under 48. Was he under on both of those? We sure about that? Yeah? Yeah, yeah. He was.
41:16
Under on both, yep. Okay, under on both. Bucs, Bengals, Commodores, Eagles under 48. Uh- Yeah, couldn't, couldn't help, uh, but nod along to those. I don't know about you. Mark Borchardt, you may know him as Base Winner.
41:29
Uh, Cardinals first five, team total over 2.5+105 versus the Birds today. I guess they're both birds versus the O's. Pirates, the Buccos +109 versus the Padres.
41:39
Uh, Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases at +114 for the Dodgers today. And then not one parlay, but two parlays. Steve Fezzik, if you're out there, [laughs] put earmuffs.
41:50
Guardians money line, Dodgers money line +177, and then the parlay of the, uh, Royals, Blue Jays F5 over four with the Cubbies, Diamondbacks first five over four as well.
42:03
So a, a parlay on first five overs, a parlay on full game money line. That's as many bets from Mark Borchardt as I remember in a while. Yeah. Uh, Jeff Erickson, colloquially known as Eric Jefferson.
42:15
Aaron Nola over 5.5Ks for the Phils. Jacob deGrom over 6.5Ks for the S- I was gonna say the surging Rangers. They are not surging. They are just puddling along. Can you get to 84 wins, Rangers? Is that too much to ask?
42:29
It probably is. Uh, Royals just on a tear. Royals +116 at the Blue Jays from Jeff, and then Rockies, Nationals over 8.5 at even money. That's a bunch of bets on the show today, man.
42:41
Everybody was going, like, four or five deep- Mm-hmm... including myself. Um, all of that on the show today. By the way, we're doing Fast Futures and, uh,
42:50
you know, we did the passing yards, and I like Caleb Williams just sort of mirrors my, my full season play on him for most passing yards.
42:59
We also took a glance at rushing and receiving, and we didn't really talk about this before the show, but we did briefly off air. We don't love these nearly as much, do we? Yeah, Warren Daddy.
43:08
I, I mean, look, me and you are not, we're, we're not the hardcore fantasy football guys, right? No. This is, this is for fantasy football players right here. Yeah. Yeah.
43:16
Uh, Jonathan Taylor, for those who care, Jonathan Taylor, this is just a three-week arc, right? Games one, two, and three. Actually, it's w- weeks one, two, and three. Nobody has a bye, though, those three weeks.
43:25
Uh, Jonathan Taylor is the short shot for most rushing yards at plus 550.
43:29
Jahmyr Gibbs is actually the short shot for most rushing touchdowns in the second column at six to one, which is hard to argue with either of those two guys, I suppose. If there is a long shot...
43:41
Now, by the way, Bijan's 12 to one and 16 to one respectively, which I find interesting. Yeah. That has more to do with the Falcons. Add another zero to Devon Achane's touch- most rushing touchdowns odds.
43:53
[laughs] Maybe the yardage, right? Yeah. Like, they're gonna try, they're gonna try to use him as much as possible. There's no way he's getting in the end zone that many times, though.
44:01
I just, I just have no intelligent handicap here to share on this one. Receiving yards. It, it would be one of the favorites or nothing, right? Yeah.
44:08
Like, these are the guys that's, that are gonna get, you know, 25 carries, and they're gonna get goal line carries. We just highlight these, 'cause good on, good on DraftKings and, uh, Caesars for putting these up.
44:18
Receiving leader after three weeks, the left column, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns in the right column. Puka, JSN, Jamar are the co short shots for most receiving yards at plus 750.
44:29
Most receiving touchdowns is actually Jamar, nine to one, and that makes complete sense. How about Justin Jefferson drifting, though, there? 11 to one yards, 25 to one touchdowns.
44:40
Yeah, I'm a little surpri- how about, I'm a little surprised it's not Jamar Chase and CeeDee Lamb right at the top of the board correlating with the quarterback, quarterbacks.
44:48
I mean, we, we were just talking about this a little off air. Like, Justin Jefferson thinks he's not perceived as, like, one of the best wide outs now because of his quarterback situation, I guess.
44:58
You're still number two or 1A or 1B- Yeah, man... with Jamar. Right up there. Good call on CeeDee Lamb, though. That's an interesting call, too. 12 to 1 in yards. Mm-hmm. 18 to 1 in receiving touchdowns.
45:08
We've done all we can do. Prop points with Jeff and Nick next at Vsiz, the sports betting network.
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