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Aug 26, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 26 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 26 2024 | Hour 2
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44:43
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin.
0:20
By the way, you can follow Kelly on Twitter at, uh, Kelly Bidlin, K-E-L-L-E-Y B-I-D-L-I-N, for those scoring at home. Got that right. [laughs] Yes, I do. I, I'm ma- I'm making a golf bet right now.
0:32
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, we usually, uh, have him the final two segments on Mondays, but since he was in town just going nuts every night, uh, he needed to come the first couple, uh, segments of the hour, 'cause he- I think he's gotta get out of here.
0:44
Ladies and gentlemen, co-host of The Handle here at the network. You can follow him on Twitter at samobom18. It's Mike Somich, everybody. How you doing, man? I'm doing good. I'm excited to be here in person.
0:55
It feels like it's been, I don't know, six months since I was on the desk with you guys. It was the end of last football season. Yeah. Oh, wow. Yeah. That's right.
1:02
You were, you- [laughs] I would've said you were here a few months ago. [laughs] I would've too. I would not have said that. I would've lost that bet. [laughs] Six months ago, that's when you were- Yeah, man...
1:10
you were the guy last year who you were adamant about the Chiefs through it all. That proved to be, uh, prescient of you.
1:16
Uh, we just are, we're coming out with a new updated NFL betting guide, and you wrote something interesting in there. Would you like to share, sir?
1:25
I mean, since I've already shared it with the world, might as well share it here- Yeah... as well, right? Uh, look, I, I worked in corporate America for a long time, and I hated getting calendar invites from Outlook.
1:34
I despised it, but they are still valuable when we switch over here to the sports betting world. Look, we do so much prep in the preseason when these cal- when these schedules come out.
1:42
We talk about, you know, the lynch points of these schedules, where it gets harder, it gets easier. You have a specific set of defenses a quarterback's going to face.
1:49
You have runs where you, uh, one team in a division plays a hard schedule, the other one takes an easy schedule, and the market takes that into account, but I don't think they always adjust completely to those specific schedule scenarios and what teams have to go through during certain portions of the season.
2:03
So I go through every schedule, and I look at where are the weak points, where are these linchpins for each team, and I send myself calendar invites.
2:11
So my phone is filled with 20, 30, 40 calendar invites for specific teams, specific players, and markets that I wanna get involved in.
2:18
And it, you know, I would say about 75% of them, I look at it and I laugh at myself, 'cause it's like, "Nope, that was wrong. I sh- don't bet that."
2:26
But the other 25, you find value, and it, it reminds you to look at specific markets, because when we get into the week-to-week grind, and it's college football, it's NFL, and it's seven nights a week, you forget, "Oh, man, I really wanted to look at the Chiefs after week 10, because I think they could win their last 11 games."
2:42
Yeah. What's Patrick Mahomes' MVP price? If he wins the last 10 games and they're the one seed, guess what? Really likely he wins the MVP, and it's probably gonna be better than the plus 475 you could get r- right now.
2:52
It's such, it's such a great thing to drive home.
2:55
We've talked about it on this show for many years, because again, before there was legalized, adjusted season win total markets, which we now take for granted, but didn't exist five years ago.
3:06
I used to say I used to do this Lehman Brothers off-the-grid thing where we would do adjusted season wins, basically, but with a s- with a buy price and a sell price. Um, and it was exactly that.
3:16
It was know when those moments are.
3:19
Now, you've taken it one step further, 'cause you, you have, I think, cleverly also extended it to other markets, not just adjusted season win total, but, "Hey, let me look at MVP here.
3:29
Let me look at, you know, whatever else." And I think that is super good. Now, by the way, I'm gonna send you tons of Outlook scheduled things that are just random- [laughs]... just to annoy you. [laughs] Let's catch up.
3:38
Hey, Mike, what about that lunch we, uh, never talked about that we should have, right? Um, but I think that's a great reminder for everybody. Um, have you looked at week one? Have you bet anything week one in the NFL?
3:50
I, I've, I've got a couple things in pocket already. Um, I, I played the Eagles early on. Uh, they opened as a one-point favorite, got down to a half point. I took them on the money line when it was a half point.
3:59
I think I'm at minus 115. That's been bet out to two, two and a half now. I think the value is pretty much gone there.
4:03
We'll see if we get any Packers money back, but it, it was at that time when everyone was, was really high on the Packers. It's been interesting.
4:09
Their Super Bowl price has actually slipped here the last, last month or so, which, uh, kind of caught me off guard yesterday when I was looking at those numbers.
4:15
And everyone's higher on the Eagles because of what we've seen with the Cowboys. Uh, so I, I agree with the move. It's getting a little scary at two, two and a half.
4:22
I think that's kind of the point where I'm, I'm not interested in getting involved. Uh, current numbers that are, that are on the board, um, I think that you can look at teasers right now.
4:30
I like teasing up the Vikings, getting them to seven and a half, teasing down the Bengals, getting them to two and a half. I think that- I hate that one too. I'm on that same teaser with you, Mikey, let's go.
4:39
[laughs] I like, I like Sam Darnold and this Vikings offense against the Giants team that I, I think is not gonna be able to move the ball very much. Give me the Broncos-Seahawks over. You can get that at 42 right now.
4:49
Uh, this Seahawks team I think is, is wildly undervalued offensively by the market, and you cannot understate... Like, everyone talks about Mike McDonald coming in and what that's gonna do for this defense.
4:58
They were one of the slowest pace of plays, highest run, uh, overrun expectation in the league, and now you're getting in Washington's offensive coordinator, who likes to play with pace.
5:07
You've got three good wide receivers. They're gonna stretch the field more. Uh, and then you look at Denver's side. Look, if Bo Nix is decent, that offense should be able to consistently move the football.
5:16
And, and the thing about Mike McDonald's defensive s- uh, scheme, it takes a little while to figure out.
5:21
So if you're gonna be betting against the Seahawks team early of giving up points, it has gotta be early in the season, not later in the season. So I like the over 42 there in the Broncos and the Seahawks. Um, and then
5:33
I'm probably gonna end up betting the Jets. I haven't gotten to the window yet, but a- anything over a field goal- That's what I said earlier... it seems like it's too much, 'cause this- Yeah...
5:40
this Jets defense is top three in the NFL. I still have question marks around the San Francisco team. Trent Williams still isn't signed. Aiyuk I expect to be on the field, but we'll see what happens there.
5:50
And I, I think the defense took a little step back. No Greenlaw, no Ofanga here in week one. Um, so I, I, I like the Jets plus three and a half or more. Right now it's available at four.
5:58
I haven't gotten to the window on that one, but I, I'm, I probably will. Completely with you on that.
6:02
By the way, just wanna clarify one thing, 'cause it occurs to me there's gonna be some people listening who are like, "Oh, both of you chiming in. You got Bengals and a teaser."
6:08
Did you get it at, at eight and a half, because now it's nine everywhere, or did you make a m- more than a six-point teaser? So I played a six and a half- Okay... on those two games. All right.
6:17
And that's the reason I said it. Beautiful. I don't know, probably 10 teasers [laughs] with them.
6:22
When it was eight down to two, with a bunch of different dogs up to seven or more, and a bunch of, uh, like the Bills at that point were seven, so I played them down to one.
6:30
Um, so there, there's a, this is, it's interesting. With both college and the NFL, week one is a enigma to bet even one week before, because we've had these lines out for months now. Yep, yep. And they are so mature.
6:45
And so it is hard to sit here and say, "Oh, there's a ton of value on this, there's a ton of value on that." Beaten into submission. They have been. Yeah.
6:51
And, and, and the NFL anyway is probably the sharpest market from a game to game perspective that we have out there.
6:56
And so when you give that market three months to develop itself, unless you have injury changes, uh, surprises at quarterback, or surprises in camp, trades that are late, i- i- it's hard to find value this late in the betting cycle.
7:09
Because I, I would equate this to Sunday morning at 8:00 AM before a 10:00 AM kickoff right now. Because instead of six days- Yeah... for these lines to mature, it's been six months.
7:19
By the way, there will be some people at 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern, who will get shut out at the window trying to make their week one NFL bets. Oh, yeah. And, oh, come on, move up there.
7:29
And pr- probably getting their contest entries in too. [laughs] That's right. Exactly. Uh, speaking of college football, do you have any week one plays that are still available for folks?
7:37
I have two plays that are still available. I, I, Miami minus two and a half. I'm, I'm higher on this Hurricanes team than I think most. I'm also down on this Florida team.
7:44
A little worried about Cristobal going into [laughs] the Swamp week one. Uh, but I do believe in this Miami offense, specifically with Kent Warren.
7:50
I think most people, like isn't that a consensus that we've gotten, that everybody's high on Miami too, just like they were high on SMU, down on Texas? I, we, we've heard a couple people. Yeah. Okay.
7:58
I, I don't wanna say a ton. All right. But we've heard a couple people, yeah. All right. Not, not quite an island. And bravo- No, no... for Florida and Miami for finally scheduling each other. Good job.
8:05
Yeah, they s- I, I miss the Battle of Florida. It used to be that you'd have Florida, Miami, Florida State, Miami, and Florida State, Florida play every year. Oh. Oh, those were- Why did that go away?
8:13
Those were the days. One of those schools is a coward. Coward Florida. [laughs] Like, it's not even really a Florida State thing. They got scared by, by the U back in the day. They didn't wanna play them anymore.
8:23
[laughs] Cowards. Do you know where he went to school, by the way? Can you tell? Florida State, right? There you go. Somehow talking trash on a Monday after- Do you know who my-...
8:30
eating in Ireland uh- You know who my favorite team growing up was? Oh, okay. Well, we got enough around- The U, baby... yeah, we got enough of that around here. Yeah. I was, I was at wide right three.
8:39
I was down there in Miami when my buddy was going to college down there, got to go to that game. At that stadium is so strange.
8:43
It's still weird that my, like, the s- the school's in Coral Gables in this gated community, and the stadium is- Yeah... way out in the middle of nowhere. Yeah. Yeah. So you like Miami here, given the points?
8:52
I, I like Miami given under a field goal. So if you can get the two and a half, which is readily available in the market right now, I think Miami is the right side here. Uh, other game for me is LSU.
9:00
Look, I, I'm down on USC this year. I think we're gonna find out that [laughs] they're not good. [laughs] And so I'm, I'm willing to lay the four right now with LSU, which is widely available as well. Um, okay.
9:10
Was that, was, were you on the same side as Bob, or was Bob on USC? [laughs] I was just gonna ask you the same thing. I was thinking that. I think Bob was on USC plus the six. I think he w- I think he was too.
9:18
Yeah, he, he took the six, yeah.
9:19
But that was a little, I think that was a l- it was a little bit, he was a little high on one, one team, and a little low on the other for his win totals, so that's why he decided he was playing the game.
9:29
Yeah, he actually stopped his season win totals release to play USC plus the six in the middle, and then resumed his season wins. Interesting. Yeah, he was like, "Oh, I better play this."
9:40
Um, so those two are still available. Did you, uh, let's just talk about week zero. Did it give you a little bit of pause?
9:48
Did, did you, did you watch it and be like, "Okay, maybe," 'cause, 'cause a lot of people were high on SMU. Everyone was saying FSU's defensive line was the greatest, like, in the country.
9:57
Like, I just, uh, my PSA at the beginning of the show was, let's just, you know, with college football and the transfer portal, man, is this tough to figure out.
10:06
Yeah, I mean, I bet, uh, I will say 5X the unit size on the NFL as I do college football early in the season. Okay. And it will catch up to 75% of the unit size by week eight or week nine in the college football season.
10:18
But I, I, look, I, I'm a more of an NFL guy than a college football guy, and I find it, uh, terrifying to try and follow the transfer portal and what's going on- Yep...
10:28
and the, the coaching carousel that you get, and now we have the new conference alignment that all becomes a part of this.
10:32
So my investments in college football have been much more into the futures market, teams that I like to make the playoffs, like Missouri plus 180, under on Illinois, over on Ole Miss.
10:41
Like I, I'm looking toward those markets, under on Notre Dame 10 and a half, which is now out there. That was nine and a half, it got bet up to 10 and a half.
10:47
Um, I'm more looking at those markets than I am game to game at this point. Uh, I had a little action in week zero. I went one and one, so I'm, I'm happy with that considering how everything played out, uh, in week zero.
10:57
I, it feels, especially with those games, like I understand why you're betting Georgia Tech, Florida State. That's a good game, but it's also in Dublin, which creates this other aspect of the entire process.
11:07
Other three games really didn't interest me that much, especially with some of the line moves that we saw. I mean, we saw Hawaii get bet way to the moon, right?
11:14
New Mexico, uh, ends up a, a 13-point dog when they opened a four-and-a-half-point dog. I, I didn't get involved in those early.
11:20
So u- unless I'm taking the, again, playing against the move, I'm not getting involved in them late. All right, Mike Somich, everybody, clean-shaven, decided he had had enough of the hai- of the, uh, facial hair.
11:30
Great shirt, too. I wanna feel the fabric. [laughs] Kelly's g- Kelly's gonna feel him up. That's right, I'm gonna- It's gonna get weird at the break. I'm touching Mike during the break.
11:38
[laughs] VSiN plus, plus, plus subscribers will get that video as well. Uh, Mike's got some baseball thoughts and bets today. That's next, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:08
The quest for $9.2 million, the Circus Survivor doc, episode two tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific.
12:17
Uh, Mike Somo- uh, Mike Somich, Mike Somobam with a, uh, with a great sort of running appearance there with Matt Brown throughout as the sort of narrators of this whole thing.
12:27
Uh, you can watch it again tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern right here on VSiN.
12:30
Five-part docuseries, episode twos tonight, three, four, and five tomorrow night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night, again, on vsin.com, YouTube TV as well, as well as a live broadcast on X.
12:40
Vsin.com/survivor, that's where you can find all the details, or to watch episode one still if you had missed that.
12:46
So, um- Check it out, because one was great, and I was mentioning Stormy, heavily involved in, uh, episode two tonight, as is our guy Sharapan. He's all over it. Does a great job.
12:57
But you and Matt Brown are sort of, you guys are sort of the, uh, the guys who move the chains for everybody. Yeah, we, we were doing these hits consistently throughout the season.
13:04
We did the, uh, the release show last year for both Contest of Millions and Survivor on Saturday night.
13:09
And so we would, we would do hits Sunday morning, and then Sunday after the game, since it fit well with our show schedule. And it's, it's gonna be fascinating to see how this is cut together.
13:17
We got to meet a lot of the different survivors and the, the Millions winners last year that came on, on the set and during the handle, during the season. So it was fun to talk with them and talk through the strategy.
13:25
And I'm, I'm fascinated how this is gonna play out over the next four nights. I mean, I obviously have already lived this documentary in a lot of ways. Yeah, yeah.
13:31
But the, the rumors that swirled around the chop gate, and then the first chop that didn't happen, and then the second one that did- [laughs]...
13:38
and, and the hedging that everyone discussed, and certain people buying into certain entries and trading percentages.
13:43
I think it's gonna be fascinating as we get down to f- 25 people or less and, and hear more of the details of what actually went on- Yeah... when you've got this kind of life-changing money on the line.
13:52
I, the best part about this, I mean, and correct me if, if, if I'm wrong, Gil, but the, uh, like, like you said, like Mike, Mike and Matt kind of drive a lot of this, but like, w- I have no idea how much of that's on camera or, uh, or, you know, or on audio, right- [laughs]...
14:06
of the conversations towards the end. And I, [laughs] like it's, I'm so looking forward to that too. Oh, you're talking about the chop- Yeah, yeah... the chop conversations and the hedging, yeah.
14:14
That's, uh, that's gonna be fascinating. Which we're just gonna have to wait and find out, but yeah. It is. I will tell you that I g- I did get a sneak preview.
14:20
It is a pretty good portion of the remaining, like after tonight. I bet. Once you get especially into four, I think, but like it's, it's a big part of it. It should be. I mean, that was the over- Yeah...
14:30
that was a overwhelming storyline for, uh, from that contest last year. It's, I keep saying this, it's almost more stressful. Like this was the, last year was the first year where I felt this. That part
14:40
felt to me that it was almost more stressful than the contest itself for those guys. I mean, it, the thing is, as this gets bigger, we're 9.2 million last year. Yeah. It's gonna go over 10 million this year.
14:51
You're gonna have more and more of these situations where people are 100% outside of their comfort zone. Yes.
14:57
Where you have implied equity of $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 on some of these games, and then you, if you get deep into this, you've got to figure out how to monetize this entry, and how much risk do you want to put on while monetizing that entry?
15:09
Do you want to bet against your own team? Right? Most of the time you're gonna have a favorite. Do you want to take the points on the other side, create a middle, and root for that? Yeah.
15:16
Would you rather take the money line of pe- other people that are in the contest? Do you actually pick games earlier in the week so that if you get through, you can monetize later in the week?
15:26
There's all of these different aspects that I think come into play. Or do you want to wait for Sunday and Monday night games so you know what everyone's done? Yeah.
15:33
One, one of the things that, uh, again, it's in a, it's in a later episode, not necessarily tonight, but I also try to, like, and I, I remember saying this during the season last year also, we also have to resist the urge to judge what other people are doing, right?
15:51
So if you see, if you see teams that are picked and you're like, "Now, why in the hell would somebody pick them?" You don't know. Multiple entries, right? Yep, yep. You don't know what their strategy is.
16:03
If, if, from, from the chopping and from the hedging and the, and monetizing standpoint, you don't know what people's situations are, right?
16:11
You don't, you know, again, there's, there's people who think it's them, that they're just so much better than everyone else, right? Who could that be? [laughs] Who... Right?
16:19
Uh, there are people who think, justifiably perhaps, that their remaining teams are better than the remaining teams of other, of other folks.
16:29
And there's, and there's, and any number of, there's more reasons also to not be so confident in what our knee-jerk reaction would be to what we're seeing in front of us, right?
16:39
Yeah, I mean, last year you actually had a odd site come out and say the implied equity of each entry once we got down to 20 or less- Right...
16:44
because of the specific teams are left and their implied win percentage throughout the rest of the game. So there was a denomination specifically set to each entry.
16:51
I, I- By the way, I love that, that they power rank the entries. I think it's cool. I, I, I- It is very cool... the, the more data we can get about this, the more I'm gonna geek out about it. Oh.
16:59
I think it's very interesting. I gotta say, one of the most awkward parts about Matt and I's job last year, who were both out of every entry in week three- [laughs]...
17:07
when 60% of the pool got knocked out, was then judging other people's picks for the rest of the year. [laughs] We were like, man, I'm, I've, uh, Survivor feels like a coin flip to me, right?
17:15
You're, you're trying to get lucky. Oh, yeah. Yeah. You've got to get lucky throughout the season.
17:18
And it goes in, the doc goes into some of the very fortunate moments for some of the competitors that ended up going very, very deep in here.
17:24
And it's just, it's difficult to sit there and be like, "I wouldn't have taken that team," after you're already out in week three.
17:30
Well, especially, like we, you know, we know people that were in it who were g- "Oh, I can't believe that person picked that." Maybe you should keep your mouth shut about that stuff.
17:38
Like, and just humble it the way through, 'cause- Well, it's, it's like when you're- It's- It's like when you're playing craps. Yeah. You don't, you don't start talking about how good you're rolling. No, no.
17:46
You don't- Absolutely not... that's a, a great way to end your roll. Absolutely not.
17:49
All right, let's, uh, that's tonight, again, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, episode two of Circus Survivors, The Quest for $9.2 million.
17:58
Uh, vsi.com, YouTube TV, uh, YouTube TV, and again, a live broadcast on X as well. Baseball, sir, what did you land on today? I got two games that I played today.
18:08
Uh, first one, let's look at the Padres and the Cardinals here. In total, opened at nine and a half, and I, I kind of agreed with that number. I had this game close to 10, closer to 9.8.
18:17
Um, but it's actually been bet down. So we're now gonna get a nine out there in the market. It's a little bit juiced to minus 120. You can take nine and a half still. That's sitting at m- plus 105.
18:25
Um, I took the m- the m- nine over minus 120 here. Padres, Cardinals. You've got, uh, Vasquez on the mound for the Padres, and Given on the mound, or, uh, Gibson, I'm sorry, on the mound for the Cardinals.
18:35
Two pitchers that both have expected ERAs almost a full run over what their current ERAs for games in St. Louis, the better hitting stadiums of the two.
18:42
Uh, so I, I'm willing to take a, take a piece of the over here, sitting at nine right now, Cardinals, Padres. All right.
18:48
And then what has, uh, become a sort of Mike Somich-branded bet- 'Cause you're the guy that talks about it the most, and we'll, we'll, again, where is this particular type of bet available? Let's start there.
18:59
It's a- the only place I found it at DraftKings. Okay.
19:01
And it's, it's wildly fr- I would love other books to put this out there so I could see what they price it at to see if my, uh, the way that I, I believe this is incorrectly priced is right.
19:10
I've, I've now tracked my bets. Oh, we believe you. We believe you are correct that it is incorrectly priced. Is it consistently incorrectly priced, or do you ever lose?
19:18
Well, let's explain to people what we're talking about first. So, so the bet is- Good call. [laughs] The bet, the bet is will a team bat in the bottom of the ninth? Okay.
19:24
And it's, it's, uh, it- it's interesting because there's two different ways to play it.
19:27
If you play a dog, you get 40 to 50 cents extra on whatever the Moneyline price is for that underdog to not bat in the bottom of the ninth.
19:35
So playing a home dog in this way, you're getting additional equity saying that they'll win in eight and a half innings, instead of winning in nine or extras. Okay. Which, not all that likely.
19:44
It's, it's about a 10% chance that they're going to actually win in that, and it, depending on the price, you could see a closer situation.
19:50
So to me, a game like the Cardinals-Padres, minus 120, plus 100 on either side, that game is more likely to have an at bat in the bottom of the ninth. Why? Because they are close to each other, right? Right.
20:01
The price dictates that this could be a closer game. You look at the Phillies taking on the Astros, uh, the Phillies have been bet out here to minus 165 last I looked, and you, the Astros are plus 143.
20:12
That game is less likely to go to the bottom of the ninth.
20:15
However, the way this is priced is that the Phillies, you get a bigger discount off the Moneyline than you would the Cardinals, because they don't, the, be- because the gap between the plus one and a half or minus one and a half, that's how I look at this.
20:28
So if, if I'm getting, let's say, right in the middle. So let's say there's minus 150 for the b- Moneyline, plus 150 for the Run Line, 50% middle would be plus 100, right?
20:39
The higher the favorite, the closer it is to the minus one and a half, and that's where I believe it, I really disagree with it.
20:44
And so you look at this, this Phillies-Astros games, minus 170 right now on the Moneyline, plus 130 on the Run Line. Minus 105 the Phillies will not bat in the bottom of the ninth.
20:54
65% off between the, the Moneyline and the Run Line that you're giving the Phillies not to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Minus 170 to what? Minus one, minus 115. I'm sorry. Minus 115. Minus 115. Yeah. Okay.
21:05
Uh, someone would have to run the numbers on this for us to be 100% sure, but intuitively, it sure sounds like you're right. I'm about 60 bets in. Yeah.
21:15
And this is the most profitable way to play favorites between 170 and 210. And you said it's difficult to find on DraftKings. It is. You have to [laughs] it's buried a little bit.
21:25
So you gotta go to, you open up a specific game. Yeah. You've gotta go to Game Props, and then you've gotta scroll about 75% of the way down. Okay.
21:32
And you will see will the X, in this case, will the Phillies bat in the bottom of the ninth? And there's a yes price and a no price. This is such a great find by you.
21:40
I mean, and, and like I said, I've been betting baseball since the dawn of time, and I've never seen this before, and I obviously haven't been betting on DraftKings, um, for multiple reasons, right?
21:51
Well- So- If we weren't owned by DraftKings for a while, I would never have found it... well, well, that's what I mean. I mean, it's- Oh, so you actually, you, you looked around.
21:58
I, I spend about an hour a day looking at sports books- Yeah... just to try and find markets like this, which I believe are incorrectly priced.
22:05
And, and I th- and i- it sounds also intuitively, like, intuitively like you have also parsed it correctly also, where those are, that's the sweet spot, the bigger favorites where you're getting the most bang for your buck.
22:16
That, it's, it's a fascinating thing. Um, and you're right, the price, it dictates in both cases.
22:22
When it's a closely lined one, you're, you know, that's, that's not a play on, but on something like this, well, the likelihood of it happening is that much more, and look at this price I found. It is- It's awesome...
22:32
it is buried in here. [laughs] I, I found it by, I had to go up and down a few times, like, "Where is this?" It's just one-liner. Yeah, it's just one line. It's not even easy to find.
22:40
This is one l- Kelly spent the first half of the segment feeling Mike's shirt- [laughs]... and then the second half searching for that prop. [laughs] Thank you, Mike. Catch your flight. Mike Savage, everybody.
22:48
Samobomb18 on the Twitter machine. We'll come back. Golf and football next. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:04
Back on The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at The D. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Um, US Open has begun, sir. Um, looking at the, uh, early scores here.
23:15
We're up a break with, uh, our big dog, Yifan Wang against Saccy, but super-duper early. Um, but that's a good start anyway. Um, but a whole bunch of matches happening.
23:26
The weather has cleared, so, uh, up a break in the Granier match as well.
23:30
That's looking good, but way too early, especially in the best of fives on the men's side to even read into anything, but so far so good in the early going. And by the way, Anisimova with a break, uh, point as well.
23:41
So anyway, 15 minutes into it, things are looking great. Okay, there we go. There we go. Catch me in another 15 minutes. [laughs] We'll see what happens. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Oh, man.
23:51
How have we gone 90 minutes without reading tweets? What's wrong with me? Jesse Welch, quote, "If you're returning nine starters on offense, does it matter if they're not good at playing football?" unquote.
24:00
[laughs] Money quote by Gil. I gotta say it every year. Yeah. It's like everybody goes, all the college football extras are like, "Oh, they're returning eight starters." Uh, they were three and nine.
24:08
[laughs] It's how it always is. Are they any good? I feel like we said it- Is that a good thing? I feel like me, you, and Matt have been talking about this- Oh, my God... for five years, man.
24:15
Uh, JasonH11, "Let me guess, Kelly is one of those guys who has the ball completely behind his head when he shoots." Talking about you making a three pointer.
24:22
Uh, oh no, if anything, it's more, uh, if anything, it's definitely more- [laughs]... the launching from the chest, you know? Shot put? Yeah, yeah. You're a shot putter?
24:29
Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely more of that than, yeah. [laughs] I'm not going like... I could, I could totally see you as that guy. [laughs] Uh, this is from VGK Brad, Vegas Golden Knights Brad.
24:39
"Did, uh, Gil ever release the name of the sushi spot? I missed the show on Friday when he was supposed to release it and heard them talking about it a little today, and it sounds like they didn't give it out."
24:47
Um, well, I can answer that directly. We didn't give it out.
24:50
I didn't give it out, because, uh, as I had warned, uh, many times I didn't know if that sushi spot was ready for the smoke as, uh, to quote the great Joe, Joe C. And, uh, they weren't.
25:03
They respectfully asked, and Kelly was there, Matt was there, and Samich was there. They respectfully asked that while they appreciated the whole,
25:11
you know, thing that was going on for two years, that I not give out the name. Yeah, it is- And so respectfully I'm honoring that. I, I should give out my number two and number three here as a consolation, though.
25:21
You should. Yeah. But, like, just so for people to understand. Yeah. Like, it's, it is so small. Yes. Like, do you know, you know those, you know those McDonald's like inside gas stations? Yeah.
25:31
Take that and chop it in half. Like, we're not... Like, it's, it, it's so s- it is that small. Like, it is- McDonald's inside gas stations? Yeah, like, you know, yeah. You never seen one of those c- like, combined?
25:40
Like, you go into the gas station, there's a McDonald's. I've seen little convenience, like, des- you know, like counters inside a gas station. Oh, yeah. No, yeah. Really? Yeah, they got- McDonald's inside.
25:49
They got Ma- yeah. Oh, I'm sure that- I'm thinking of one on La- what is it, Las Vegas and Warm Springs. I think that intersection has one. Oh, okay. There's a, there's a few of them out there. Anyway, we stray.
25:57
The point was it was a small- Yeah... McDonald's. Yes. And it's smaller than that. Thank you. [laughs] Okay? That's the point. Thank you very much. 3JackKH3131, uh, quote, "Paula Badosa is worth a look," unquote.
26:07
Has to be the truest statement I've heard in a while. Know what I'm saying? Oh, yeah. As I said, the, uh, the Zheng Qinwen and Nisimova match, which is going on right now, Nisimova is up a break.
26:17
Um, really should probably take a look at that match. Great tennis. You know what I mean? Yeah, man. Touchdown Jesus, even for the high pun bar, base winner has said, "No regrets betting Casey was solid."
26:30
[laughs] And on the same day as Yamo be there. He is a, uh, dad joke- Yeah... flow, that kid.
26:35
The, uh, the worst part about that segment was how I didn't have my mic on, but how hard I laughed at your little live, uh, joke, uh, when we were talking [laughs] about the, the winnings for the tournament championship.
26:47
Oh, I know. 25 million? That's adorable. [laughs] Yeah. Corbin- I laughed way too hard at that. [laughs] Uh, qu- quote, a lot of quoting of, of the show today from me. Thank you for appreciating the quotes.
26:57
Uh, quote, "Out of respect for the sushi owners, I'ma punch you in your damn mouth if you tell people the restaurant." I believe I said face, not mouth. Uh, "Holy crap, didn't know Gil could get so violent.
27:09
You'd rather die than give the place out since you're so respectful. The man has codes, people." I'm just being respectful. You know, you know what I was thinking about? Yeah.
27:16
Uh, when so- someone was asking me this on Friday, I think it was, about the sushi spot. The best part about it is I don't even know the name. That's the thing. I don't even know the name. There you go. There it is.
27:27
Like, the, like, like this is, you could, you could badger me all you want. I don't know the name- There you go. There it is... of the place. Uh-huh. I love that.
27:34
I was thinking about it 'cause I'm sure it was on the menu or something, but I didn't look at it. Well- Like, I didn't really look at it... I never mentioned it either.
27:40
[laughs] Brian M., Brian Mari- uh, Marian, Marianian, Marianan. Sorry about that. Brian M., anyway. Yeah, Brian, we're gonna need like a voice, uh- Yeah... text or something on how to pronounce your last name.
27:51
Morianni... 'cause you, uh, twee- you tweet all the time. We love showing your tweets. That's right, B. Morianni. He says, "I'm guessing Kelly feeling up Samoa Bom during the break isn't the VSAN++."
27:59
[laughs] "But the VSAN XXX subscription." It's something, I'll tell you that much. Hey, you know what? We went to break, you grabbed your shirt first. I did. Like, immediately. It was, it's a very stretchy material.
28:08
Yeah, I, it's a great shirt. Then he told, and then we had a, like, five-minute conversation about malls, 'cause he bought it at Macy's. 'Cause he went into a Macy's and purchased it, which you and I would never do.
28:19
I live texted Gil the last time I was in a mall. I had to stop at one like a few months ago. [laughs] Yeah. And I was like, "This is so weird." And I'm like, "There's an arcade. I'm totally going to the arcade."
28:28
I totally played Street Fighter in a, in a mall. It was awesome. And never- I felt like I was 13 again. It was great... and never saw a fascist thousand. It's like, are you, are you texting with your girlfriend again?
28:36
[laughs] It's like, yes, maybe I am. Do you know how many times I've gotten in my life a friend call me and be like- Yeah...
28:41
"Hey man, like, I know this is really awkward, but I need you to talk to my girlfriend, and it's, just, just talk to her. And like j- just to confirm I'm a guy." Yeah. Because they're tech, you know.
28:50
Yeah, just to confirm. Uh, beating the book, Kelly Bidlin also will accept your tweets as well. Uh, we enjoy. Best listeners in the game. Clever, witty. Again, you can, uh, crush us too. You can murder us.
29:01
As long as you're funny, we'll read it. Um- I hope Chris is okay. I think he just like ran into the door or something, our audio guy. Chris, our audio guy? Yeah. [laughs] Oh my God. Chris, hope you're okay, Chris. Um,
29:12
MLB, I mentioned this earlier. Um, best record Major League Baseball for those of us who bet this, I have the Diamondbacks at 12 to 1, best record in the major. Or I have to have... No, wait a minute.
29:24
I have Diamondbacks number one seed 12 to 1. Yep. Best record I have at 40 to 1. And again, I have the Diamondbacks to face the Royals in the World Series at 400 to 1, which is the real prize I'm looking for.
29:36
Uh, if you can't tell, I'm all about the Diamondbacks. Um, right now it is the Dodgers, 78 and 53. They got the best record in baseball. And the Yankees are one game behind them at 77 and 54.
29:46
And then it's like stairsteps. Phillies 76 and 54, half game back there. Uh, then you got the Brewers and the Guardians, 75 and 55. The O's, 76 and 56.
29:58
There are the Diamondbacks, three games behind the Dodgers at 75 and 56. Three games obviously behind them in the NL West as well. And then the Padres. It kind of starting to slough off at the bottom of this top 10.
30:09
The Royals and the Twins kind of fading, uh, in terms of best record.
30:13
No one ever thought they were gonna get best record necessarily, but just a, there, there was a, there was a smaller gap between one and 10 last week than there is now, let's put it that way. That's crazy.
30:23
It's still crazy. It is still so tight. I mean, when did we first start talking about this? Was that, was it the beginning of last week? A couple weeks, couple weeks ago, I think. Or two weeks ago. Yeah.
30:29
I think you're right. Yeah. Um, I mean, like this, it's so bunched up. It's incredible. It is incredible this year. And, uh, then as far as most wins in August, um, my bet is, has never had a chance on the Mets.
30:42
This is, it took us five months to just stink at this, 'cause the first four months were unbelievable, including the win on the Astros in July.
30:49
But in August, the defending monthly champ, they won July outright at Circa and were at dead heat with the Mets At William Hill Caesars, the Diamondbacks looking for the back to back. Crazy.
31:02
They have the best record since the All-Star break, so that checks out. 17 and five this month are the Diamondbacks, with a plus 47 run differential. And out west, been pretty good, huh? Oh, dude.
31:14
[laughs] Not, not only do the Diamondbacks win in terms of, you know, most wins right now, but they would win all tiebreakers. Fewest losses, best run differential. I mean, they got everything going on.
31:25
By the way, six and two in one run games. There's only five games left, really. Five or six. I guess in the case of the, uh, Royals, it's seven. They're the one team with a double header today that has seven.
31:34
But really it's mostly five or six games left in this month. So the Diamondbacks with a two-game advantage.
31:39
Two win advantage, let me be clear, but also a two-game advantage, but a two win advantage for the purposes of this market, over both the Dodgers and Padres, who have had great months, as you say, in the same division, Kelly, but cannot catch the Diamondbacks to date.
31:54
15 and seven each. Then you have the Brewers and the Astros, each with 14 wins at 14 and eight. You've had some extremely good bets in this market, uh, going back to the beginning of the season.
32:03
But as we've been tracking this for the entirety of the season now, like, this, I mean, correct me, hey, correct me if I'm wrong, it feels like [laughs] a two-game lead with five games left is about the biggest we've had.
32:14
It is n- it is the biggest we've had. Okay. You are correct. With... 'Cause remember, March, April was a scrum- Yeah... to the finish line. So was May. So was June.
32:26
We won the Astros in June, pardon me, um, right to the last moment. Mm-hmm. Last month was two between the Diamondbacks, remember, Diamondbacks just got there at the very end. You're absolutely right.
32:37
This is a two-game lead. A two, uh, win lead in the win column is a massive lead in the 2024 historical- Right, yeah... uh, context.
32:49
And 17 and five is by far the best record of any calendar month of any team heading into the last five games. Okay. Like, it's not even close. No one's come... No one has had this good of a record in any calendar month.
33:04
Yeah, I'd like to- Even close... I'd like to dig up more historical numbers on this. Like, what, you know, what is the average...
33:09
What would be the average winner, you know, uh, in this market each month by, you know, by wins? Average amount of wins. Yeah.
33:15
Well, you have to throw J- July is different 'cause there's an All-Star break, and then March, April is different 'cause there's extra games. Right. Yeah, yeah.
33:21
But, but generally speaking, what's the win percentage- Right, yeah... you have to look at? And I'll tell you this, it ain't 17 and five. This is, I mean, this is just an incredible... And it's quiet.
33:31
Like, the- Mm-hmm... average person is not- The... Yeah... thinking about the Diamondbacks. You are absolutely right. Yeah. Nobody, yeah, nobody's talking about the Diamondbacks.
33:38
As much hype as the Padres get, by the way, by comparison, Diamondbacks are like, "Yeah, we'll just do this quietly over here while you guys talk about the Dodgers and the Padres." We'll come back.
33:47
Kelly's thoughts on the Tour Championship and more. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:03
Hey, don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
34:11
If you go there right now, front page, you can watch episode one of Circus Survivor, the quest for 9.2 million, before the episode two debut tonight. Uh, Greg Peterson talking, uh, baseball, the Astros-Phillies.
34:23
He's got a play there. Zach Cohen with his US Open picks. I didn't check those out, um, but he's got both men's and women's calls, day number one of the United States Open. Greatest slam there is.
34:34
Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA. All these, uh, folks, by the w- by the way, all of that and more at vsin.com. College football as well, with Adam Burke and JBT front and center as well.
34:44
Um, a lot of folks had the, uh, Indiana Fever under season wins. I remember pre, uh, before the WNBA season- [laughs] Of course, I keep getting sweaty.
34:53
[laughs] They, they were like, "Oh, this is the easiest bet in the world." And Caitlin Clark and company are just trying to mess that up big time. Yeah. Yeah. That's gonna be interesting to see.
35:03
Um, here's the other thing that gets you about, uh, the women's tennis again.
35:06
We're up a break, uh, with, uh, both Anisimova over Xinwen Zheng or Zheng Xinwen 5-2, and we're up a break with, uh, Yifan Wang against Sakkari, up 5-2 in the first set. But Sakkari now has a medical timeout.
35:19
So this is the other thing we have to try to avoid, right?
35:21
Which is, okay, this is a three, a pl- a plus 311 dog that is looking great, and now you have to worry about, oh, is, is Sakkari gonna, is Sakkari gonna quit on us now?
35:32
Is this what's gonna hap- Is this how we're not gonna win this? There's only- Wait, how long does it have to go? Well, okay, by the way, there's, they're, they've resumed playing, by the way.
35:41
Um, at some shops it has to go one set, at some shops it has to complete. Oh. But they're, they, they have resumed playing. Okay. So we shall see. We shall see where this goes. Um, okay. Tour Championship, golf.
35:54
Again, it's the old, I don't, I don't wanna say it's the staggered start, because that's, that's poor terminology, but you have a, a leaderboard that, um, has different starting positions. Scottie Scheffler,
36:08
who is plus one to... Now, now there's two different things happening here, right? You could conceivably win the Tour Championship, the weekend tournament, but not win the FedEx Cup. Correct? Sa- say again?
36:21
You could conceivably win the Tour Championship, the tournament itself, but not win the FedEx Cup. No, whoever wi- uh, uh- So there's a, there's a strokes market. See what I'm saying? No, it's the, i- it's the
36:35
72 whole market for the Tour Championship that's separate. Correct. That's what I'm trying to say. But with, with the staggered strokes, whoever wins it wins the FedEx Cup. No, no, no. With the s- That's correct.
36:45
But we... That's what I'm saying. There's two different ways to play this, right? Mm-hmm. There's two different markets. Two different ways to bet, yes. Yes. So again, let's, let's try to clarify that.
36:53
There's the starting position one for the FedEx Cup. Scheffler's starting at 10 under, Xander at eight under, Hideki seven under, uh, Ober five under, and then everybody else, uh, from there.
37:04
Hey, yeah, I did this by odds, so Keegan's at six under. Oh, Keegan six under, and then- Disrespect for Keegan, you know... disrespect for Keegan. Keegan is six under, I'm sorry.
37:10
And then, uh, Ober five under, everybody four under, and, and then it staggers down. Yeah. That's to win the FedEx Cup. So starting with that, whoever ends up with the best number at the end of it all wins the FedEx Cup.
37:21
But y- there's another market that's the tour championship itself, right? Correct, 72 holes. Which is just strokes to zero. Yeah, yep. 72-hole strokes to zero. So be careful about that first thing.
37:32
Uh, how are you playing this week? Yeah, the s- the 72-hole market will look much m- much more similar to what you would expect a- Correct... you know, odds- Yes... to look like on these 30 guys.
37:40
I- But this is the only time of year we have to be aware of this kind of thing. Right, correct. Yeah, I, I bet, I, I bet Scheffler mid-show.
37:45
I, I think sh- uh, any, if you're getting pl- plus money on Scottie Scheffler, you're giving me a two-shot lead with the best golfer on the planet, yeah, I'm, I'm betting him.
37:53
I, it's, I'm quickly seeing this number r- uh, s- switch to, switch to him being the odds-on favorite. It's minus 110, minus 115 places. Uh, I just betted MGM plus 110.
38:05
Um, that's what they had, had up this morning as well. I bet it o- I bet it. I think if you're t- you're get- talking plus money, uh, I'll be on Scheffler with the starting strokes.
38:14
Um, I do have a Morikawa ticket already that is not looking nearly as good now. Um, think I bet that at 18 to 1. He's 25 to 1 in this market. I'll probably, I might have one or two, uh, in the 72 hole market.
38:27
There's definitely, there are definitely some guys I'm looking to pick on matchup wise. Um, Hideki Matsuyama probably the biggest. I don't even know if they're gonna li- list matchups.
38:37
That will be interesting to watch what the, what the books do with guys like him because he, he withdrew with a back injury last week. Um, these things seem to come and go with Hideki. I, I wouldn't be shocked if he's
38:51
more okay than not, Gil, but tell me a guy that's got a back injury, but he's a- almost, unless it's terrible, he's going to tee it up this week because there's guaranteed money going to every single one of these guys, and it's- Even if he swings the club twice...
39:06
yeah, all you gotta do is tee off. Yeah. Tee off and go pick up your ball and go home. Yep. And you make 550K. So, like, it- Is that, is that good? Yeah, that's pretty good. [laughs] It's not bad for 10 minutes of work.
39:15
Yeah. So, like, uh, just keep that in mind as you're looking at matchups this week.
39:19
I, I have, I mean, the books, I have a feeling we'll be smart about that as well, and you're not gonna get much of an opportunity, or odds will be really, really bad. But I'll be looking to pick on him for sure.
39:29
Um, but, like, I think this is, I, I, I really think Scheffler, Schauffele, this is, uh, we're actually going to get a tour championship here that really does reflect what the season was. Now, we can argue all we want.
39:42
I kind of hate this week because it's all, like, every- everybody gotta, has to give their own take of how they would do the playoffs.
39:48
It's just, there's never gonna be a, to me, there's never a perfect system to how to d- how to do a playoffs in golf. I don't think this is a completely bad way. Does it reward?
39:57
Uh, i- it's kind of silly that you get so much, you get rewarded for what you did so much during the regular season when it feels like the playoffs should kind of be by themselves.
40:05
But with Scheffler and Schauffele at the top getting a little bit of a head start, I expect that we're gonna get to see basically a duel between those two, who we have argued, um, you know, we've argued basically who is the, who had the best season up, up until the point, I think, when Scheffler won g- uh, gold, and then that conversation's over to me, but.
40:23
So you are betting the FedEx Cup. You are not betting the tournament itself. C- c- correct. The 72 holes, in other words. I, I'll probably, I'll probably have bets in both markets. Okay.
40:33
But I am betting plus 110 on Scottie Scheffler with the starting strokes. To win, to win the FedEx Cup. Yes. Gotcha. Okay. And the Tour Championship. And the Tour Championship. [laughs] And the Tour Championship. Yeah.
40:44
Wait a minute. See, now you're confusing. Yeah, the winner of the Tour Championship wins the FedEx Cup.
40:49
Okay, but what- For betting purposes, there will be a separate 72-hole market for this tournament without the starting strokes. Okay. All right. It's tough. It's terminology, man.
40:59
The, the b- look, this is where we were talking about it last week. The betting of this is, is more d- more difficult- Yeah... this week to explain the betting of it than the wh- average fan at home just watching.
41:07
The way that it should be worded is to win the FedEx Cup and to win 72 holes. Putting Tour Championship into it just pollutes the whole thing, 'cause that's gonna confuse people. I'm just, uh- Yeah...
41:18
that's my little shout-out to books on that. Um, by the way, real quick, 'cause I went through my contest plays that I, that I think I'll play.
41:25
Well, and maybe, and give me, you know, we're, I still have f- you know, what, 11, uh, 12 days to submit these. But I went through my week one contest plays. Did you bet anything? Oh yeah, I've got bets.
41:34
Um- What did you bet, besides Arizona? I know you have Arizona. Yeah, I bet Arizona. I took six and a half w- last, I, I s- I took, took six and a half. I laid minus 115.
41:43
That was the last six and a half that was left in town. That was probably Thursday, Thursday or Friday or something when I bet that.
41:48
Uh, I laid two and a half with the Chiefs, wanted to lay, uh, move that bef- or, or bet that before that got to three, uh, even a little bit after the Drew conversation last week with that.
41:56
I do think just two and a half is kind of cheap with the Chiefs, uh, with the Ravens coming to town that opening Thursday night. Um, I am on the over in Jaguars.
42:04
Dolphins, played that at 49, did not get the 48 and a half, but that is quickly going up, so I wanted to get on there at 49. Laid two and a half with the Falcons.
42:12
We talked about that one, uh, with Steelers coming to town. Um, and then that teaser that, uh, Mike talked about, I'm on the same exact one.
42:19
Bengals down to two and a half, Vikings up to seven and a half, paying the juice with the six, six and a half point teaser. Maria Sakkari has quit.
42:27
Yifan Wang is a plus 311 dog, wins the first set, and Sakkari has quit, uh, 6-2. So if we, if you had it at a shop that needed one set to be graded, you are a winner.
42:39
If you do not have it at a shop with only one set and you needed the whole match to be played, it is a refund. Judging by the tone in your voice, you're gotta refund. Well, I always, I'm consistent how I grade them.
42:50
For me, it's always you must finish the match, so that's a refund. It's not a, it's not three plus, it's not 3.11 units in my pocket. But if you had it at one set shop, good for you.
43:02
Well, that's personally how you grade yourself, but you did, or- No, that's, that's, that's how my biggest outlay is always at the non-one set shop. Gotcha. It's always a full grade. That, that's what I was asking. Okay.
43:13
Yes. Got it. Yeah, 100%. So I'm not gonna sit here and say- So is your first one of the tournament great? Uh, it's, it's infuriating. It's infuriating. How, how many of these do you think you average at grand slam?
43:21
Oh, bro, I d- Four? I can't even. [laughs] Re- so why, if, if Sakkari was that hurt, why is she playing? Did she get hurt during the first set? Someone has to tell me, 'cause we're doing a show.
43:30
Uh- Yeah, that's a good point. Opening match of the US Open. I mean, why is she playing at all then? First set? Yeah, yeah. Um- She's not making f- 550K to show up. No.
43:38
Um, okay, real quick before we go, 'cause I promised this, uh, on Friday. I didn't say it on Friday, and I promised it I'll show today, and I didn't. Number three and number two sushi spots, uh, Kelly Bill.
43:45
Oh, yeah, yeah. Uh, number three, Sen, S-E-N. It's out in Summerlin. It's, like, a driver away from the Las Vegas Aviators Ballpark. Ah, okay. A great area. Sen. Yeah. Big, great, consistently great sushi.
44:01
That's number three, Sen. And number two, this'll cost you a little more, but it's, uh, it's a small place also. It's called Kabuto. I've mentioned it before on the show. Yeah. K-A-B-U-T-O. That's number two.
44:13
Um, they were great. I would say they had a little couple years where they weren't as great, and now they're back to being spectacular again. So Sen and Kabuto. Sorry, those are the, uh- At least we got Kabuto...
44:22
the consolation prizes. Um, that Sakkari thing, man, come on. Brutal. Brutal. Brutality. We've done all we can do. Best Bets is next. Enjoy, from VSIN, the sports betting network.
44:34
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