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Aug 26, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025 | Hour 2
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45:28
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:10
V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, Sirius XM Channel 158. Whichever way you're taking us in, we sure do appreciate it.
0:19
Kelly's still waiting for somebody to do all of them at the same time. Yep. Good luck. Is there a prize involved in that, by the way? I'll give you a high five. Oh, that's big. That's big.
0:29
Uh, still to come here, Drew Dinsick standing by. Um, gotta talk US Open and NFL with him. Not to mention Dr. Bob a little later on, college football, baby. His top five, and how far ahead his one is from two.
0:45
I'm gonna guess it's a big separation from the way you've been teasing it. Yeah. One team way out in front, huh? I'm, I'm, I'm on the edge of my seat. Yeah, I think relatively speaking to the market, yeah. Okay.
0:54
For, for Bob. By the way, real, real quick, couple tweets here. Uh, Chris Heath, "Work ethic was already low for me, especially from 8:00 to 9:00, but now I'm deemed useless till 10:00." Thank you, Chris. Um,
1:06
sorry about your productivity.
1:07
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, shout out to Cleveland for failing to score a single run," talking about the Guardians here, "in three straight games, helping us to hopefully cash our season long under, which also sets up nicely tonight for a no runs first wager."
1:18
First inning, I think he's talking about. Um, yes, Guardians, just every night. Just keep dying, Guardians. Go away. Season win total under.
1:25
The reason that that matters so much to me, by the way, people are like, "What is, what is that one bet?" I don't think we've ever missed a top MLB season win total pre-flop on this show in all our years.
1:34
That has been the most consistently good bet throughout the years. Nice. Yeah. What do you know about Throughout the Years by Curtis Blow? Anything about that? Oh, Bieber. Do we talk about it before we get to Drew?
1:45
Real quick. [laughs] Just, do you see this Justin- Yes... Bieber imposter- Yes... that showed up at XS?
1:50
XS is the club in between the Wynn and the Encore, and he, they basically thought he was Justin Bieber for, uh, uh, was it a half hour before they took him offstage?
1:58
I, I think it was a, a significant amount of time, yes, and I believe there was a whole back- background pre- I don't know, I read something really quick on it. It's the tape that's all, the greatest of all.
2:06
But it was the, I think there was prep involved with him, like, uh, him pretending to have a marketing agency reach out or something like that. That's unbelievable. And then he had, you know, a whole crew with him.
2:16
[laughs] And yeah, he got up on stage, and it, I, I think it was a, a longer amount of time than it should be before someone, uh, realized that is really not Justin Bieber. Get him down. How does that go down?
2:26
Does a fan notice it and convey it to somebody? Does security notice it and start, like, holding the, their earpieces in, like, "I don't believe this is Justin."
2:33
Like, who- No, it's gotta, it's gotta be one of those it takes, like, 20 people, and then they start talking to each other, right? [laughs] 'Cause you don't wanna be the first one.
2:40
You can't be like, "Hey, I don't think that's really Justin Bieber up there." Like, what if you're wrong? It's like, "He looks a little too thick." [laughs] "He's a little too buff." Anyway, that's awesome.
2:51
What a, what a great prank, and the fact that he, that this dude for, like, 30 minutes gets to sing and dance on stage. I, it's ama- it's amazing.
2:57
Who, if, if it was Biddlin, who would you, like, who would you, if Preston Johnson had a concert, you could do that. [laughs] Yeah, I was gonna say, I don't know who else I could, [laughs] yeah.
3:04
Drew Dinsick comes to us from a, uh, from a very interesting location. He is whale_capper on Twitter. Of course, the co-host of NBC Sports Bet The Edge and the Deep Dive podcast, which is Dinsick classic.
3:16
He does the latter with Andy Molitor, and NBC Sports Bet The Edge with Jay Croucher. He is at an NBC Sports headquarters today. Drew joins us now, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, man? Where are you?
3:27
Oh, great, man. World traveling. I, believe it or not, I, uh, spent, uh, some time with Kelly over the weekend. We had that same conversation about the fake Bieber. [laughs] I can't believe you brought it up.
3:37
Fake Bieber. Drew, who would you be- If w- Who would you be able to, uh, do that for? What artist or what, what celebrity could you m- Kenny G. I've been mistaken for Josh Groban before in Las Vegas.
3:48
[laughs] Start singing like him? That would be fantastic. [laughs] Hey, that- I'm not joking. I was mistaken for Josh Groban at one point. That's hilarious.
3:56
Right, but y- the thing is, you could, that guy could imitate Bieber. Can you imagine if Drew tried to knock, knock off Groban? That'd be fantastic. [laughs] I don't know, maybe you have a beautiful voice.
4:04
I shouldn't say that. Uh, you're at NBC headquarters. That's very kind. NBC headquarters where, Drew, and why? Uh, we're at, I'm in, uh, up in Stamford, Connecticut, uh, NBC Sports HQ.
4:16
Um, this is our annual, uh, all hands on deck talent summit. You know, the football season's about to start. We gotta get all of our ducks in a row, um, you know, really talk through strategy.
4:27
Are we, are we taking on the right parts of the space? Are we providing the bettors with the actionable information that they need?
4:34
Um, you know, and, uh, I think ultimately, uh, it's just honestly a good chance to meet in person with all the folks I work with day to day, uh, who otherwise I, I never get a chance to see.
4:44
Now, I assume, this is just a little broadcasting insider here, 'cause I, I'm interested in this. Uh, I assume it's not, "Maria, you're out. Maria Taylor, you're out. Drew Dinsick's in."
4:52
What is the, what is the gambling element of this? Where does, in your, in your opinion right now, where does NBC stand on incorporating betting into football broadcasts?
5:04
Well, uh, I think with football there's still a little bit of, like, you know, we want, they're toeing the line and trying not to just be all in, all, all in all the time, because it's such an enormously huge and important product, and if they alienate the audience and the, uh, Sunday Night Football, you know, is affected in any way, like, that, it's the most valuable property here, and maybe one of the most valuable properties in all of entertainment, honestly.
5:29
And, uh, you know, I think the fascinating thing that I'm interested to learn about while I'm here is, um, you know, that NBC is rolling out NBA coverage. Um, I'm fired up to know what my role in that is gonna be. Yes.
5:42
Uh, it is heavily supported by, um, you know, the partnerships with, uh, sports books. And so the betting is going to surely be, uh, you know, a meaningful part of the NBA g- uh, strategy and coverage.
5:56
And, uh, I think that's gonna be, uh, that's gonna be pretty fascinating. And then the Olympics is sort of the other end of the spectrum. Like, the IOC is, like, f- Ha- hands off.
6:06
Like, absolutely no, um, you know, no, uh, you know, kind of crossover there.
6:12
So, uh, it's really interesting how they're, they're doing their best to sort of silo everything so that they can keep all the stakeholders happy. Good for you, man.
6:20
I ho- uh, man, I hope that it just raises your profile, uh, in all this. Last thing I guess would be golf. Is, is there... How does that stand right now?
6:30
I think right now there's no, like, hardcore deal, uh, for golf and gambling. So it's- Yeah... that one I think is gonna stay, uh, you know, pretty traditional.
6:40
And, uh, you know, I think, um, I mean, it, it, it is kind of wild, though, that you have something like golf and Olympics, which, where there's relatively little, um, crossover, and then you have something like the Kentucky Derby, [laughs]
6:55
you know? Right. Which is- All in... that's all that matters. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, it's, it, it's interesting how, how major networks will navigate all this. And, uh, you know- Yeah... i- you've been really honest.
7:06
Uh, you, you were on Tim Lawson's, uh, podcast a couple years ago, and it was really interesting about h- And you were super honest about it, where it's like, okay, even if they did, let's take the football one.
7:17
Even if they did decide, "Okay, we're gonna step up the gambling element of this.
7:21
We're gonna be more open about lines and that sort of thing," you were super honest about even if they do that, maybe it's not people like us that they want being the face of that.
7:31
Maybe they want Chris Simms, right, to be the guy, or whomever the else they have on, on set there, a more familiar mainstream characters. Do you still feel that way?
7:41
Sh- well, I think ultimately a lot of the folks who were, would've dipped their toe in the water and talked gambling, um, either didn't like it or decided it wasn't really, uh, you know, for them.
7:54
Uh, and so they've, you know, anyone who was sort of in the, in the, uh, on the periphery like, "I might start getting involved in the gambling side of things," I think has really walked it back.
8:03
Um, and, you know, you have, I think, a, a pretty, you know, kind of course adjustment to, you know, "These are our experts who cover this topic. If and when we need, uh, content, we are gonna go to them."
8:16
Uh, and that's sort of the current state of things.
8:18
I would say that, um, uh, you know, I, y- there are ebbs and flows of, like, what main, you know, what is popular mainstream, and certainly with, like, the political environment shifting a little bit.
8:29
I, and, you know, there's, there was, at the Super Bowl for instance, there was a pretty clear, I thought, anti-gambling slant with a lot of the people who were there covering NFL. Hmm.
8:40
Like, um, and I, and it may just be that, you know, they were tired of seeing the ads. They were tired. You know, they, they, they signed up for sports betting.
8:49
You know, people in general were signing up for sports betting accounts, burning through their bankroll, and then they, uh, and unhappy with the experience.
8:56
And, you know, so there was, there was certainly a little bit of, um, you know, kind of macro pushback I felt like at the Super Bowl.
9:02
Because two years ago at the Super Bowl it was like, uh, gambling was everything, right? And then they go to Vegas, and, like, the biggest... You saw it, you know. Yeah.
9:10
The, you know, VSiN has a huge, uh, presence there.
9:13
The biggest presence of the whole, you know, FanDuel and DraftKings had gigantic setups there, you know, and it's like that, that to me at least it felt like it was waning a bit at the last Super Bowl.
9:23
And, um, and then, you know, surely we have a kind of a weird, um, you know, anti-gambling consensus with pushing into, you know, the, uh, the, um, you know, the law forward where you can't write off your, you know, your, your 90% of your losses.
9:39
Mm-hmm. So it's, uh, there's, there's certainly something in the air right now that's, uh, that's a little bit, uh, transitory.
9:44
But, um, but ultimately the fact that NBC got the NBA rights package, um, and that that's gonna be broadly supported by, you know, with DraftKings is gonna, it's, it's, you know, it's gonna be embraced, and it's gonna be fascinating to see how that plays out.
9:59
I can sense that that's what you are the most excited about. Like, that would be, uh- [laughs] It would... yeah. Yeah. [laughs] And, and I, I can sense it from Kelly sitting next to me.
10:07
That would be v- a, a really different feel than the nine... Uh, we're still gonna have John Tesh's music. [laughs] Love it. But- John Tesh has still got it. Yeah. That's a great commercial.
10:16
[laughs] But, but uh, yeah, we'll see how, uh, how betting is incorporated into that. Well, good for you, man. I ho- I hope it all works out. Real quick before the break, US Open, do we have tennis plays, uh, left today?
10:28
Uh, I am against Coco Gauff tonight. Ooh. Not to lose, but I think, uh, Tomljanovic takes a set from her. Um, I'm into that at plus 210, uh, for Tomljanovic to, to plus one-and-a-half sets.
10:43
Um, ultimately, uh, you know, uh, I'm not worried about the moment.
10:48
Tomljanovic going toe-to-toe with Serena in her last ever match on, you know, Arthur Ashe is all I kinda need to know that she's not gonna be, uh, you know, uh, shrink in the moment.
10:57
So, uh, you combine that with the fact that Coco Gauff's transition right now from coaching and her physical, uh, and just, you know, faltering, uh, issues are all very real.
11:08
Um, four and five since she wins the French Open. Uh, you know, like, there's, there's a lot of, uh, signal right now that it's just not clicking for Coco.
11:16
So if she drops a set to Tomljanovic, I'll be there to pick up the pieces. Yeah, including a change of coach minutes before the tournament. Um, minutes, I'm being, like, I'm exaggerating, but days before the tournament.
11:27
Uh, more tennis with Drew on the other side, what- uh, whatever else he might be playing today. Uh, we'll run some tennis props at the US Open by him as well. And then any late NFL thoughts from him? Late bets. Oh.
11:38
Something that he's come to in the wee hours, nine days before the regular season begins. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back on the numbers game live from Circa. If you haven't been to Circa before, I invite you, me personally. Not that I'm a person that can invite, that, that can invite people. Are you gonna give him a tour?
12:12
Are you gonna give him a tour? I'm not, but I- Buy him a drink? I guess what I'm trying to say is- Crush some crabs with him for a while?
12:16
I guess what I'm trying to say is if you haven't been here, you should real- I mean, essentially, if you're listening to this, you're obviously a sports fan, you're a bettor, you gotta come down here once.
12:23
I don't- It's a, it's a sports bettor's-- I would think- Oh... it's a bucket list item for a sports bettor. Of course. Even, even my buddies who like, "Oh, we're staying on the strip," even they, you know- Yeah...
12:31
like, one time, you gotta come and stay here one time. It's just the m- best sportsbook in the world, biggest sportsbook in the world, uh, the pool, stadium swim. Come on. They can spill out onto Fremont Street at night.
12:41
I- Yeah. Brian M. on Twitter, "Someone completes listening to a numbers game on all the service providers. Kelly should pay them the subscription fees they would need to have all of the streams." Good idea.
12:52
You're on the hook, Kelly. It's been decided. Jesse Welch. I'm trying to think. Okay, maybe. Je- Jesse Welch, "Hey, fellas, just popping in with a question in broad daylight.
13:01
Anyone ever quenched anything besides their thirst? Thought I'd help out with the third hour a bit. I'll hang up and listen." Good point. That's, that's a great one.
13:07
[laughs] You don't quench anything besides your thirst? Nope. No. You qu- well, you can quench your desire, you know? Yeah. Jay Green, Jay Green, "Drew 100% can pull off impersonating Dierks Bentley on stage."
13:20
Oh, a little countrified. My first reaction was Kenny G. Did you hear me? Oh, Kenny G. It was Kenny G. Oh, the great Kenny G. Real Nicks, "Come on, Gil, we all know Drew has tried to enter clubs saying he was Barry Gibb.
13:31
It works until he's forced to show off his falsetto voice, [laughs] then unfortunately it's a tragedy." Tragedy. Oh, good call. Great song by the Bee Gees back in the day. I won't, uh, effort to sing that.
13:41
And then, uh, JT- Oh, yeah, back in the day. Yeah, yeah, that would've worked Yeah, JT, Speed Tabom, "I like Drew, but, um, [laughs] that 1990 hairstyle is killing me." Says, "It's 2025, dude."
13:52
Oh, we love that Drew still rocks it. Drew Dincic joins us once again from NBC's headquarters in Stamford, Connecticut, uh, @whale_capper, courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line. Yeah, Barry Gibb, for sure. Mm. Yeah.
14:04
Barry Gibb back in the day. Yep. Yeah. That was a cool B- Love it... that was a cool BG, Drew. Um, all right. Let me- Are we getting calls for they want me to go full Alcaraz? So what happened there?
14:13
So, so he got a bad haircut and then he just had to start from scratch? Oh, yeah.
14:17
The story was, uh, he couldn't pay, or he chose not to pay his barber to fly to New York to give him a fresh cut, and so his brother tried to do it and just completely whacked it. [laughs] Excellent.
14:26
And so then he had to, he had to, he had to shave it to start over. That's phenomenal. Yeah. Car- Carlitos was not planning on those, uh, photo ops as he advances in the US Open.
14:35
Speaking of which, was the, did y'all- You know what, though? He's got a normal shaped head, so it doesn't look weird. Yes. You know? 100% agree. You know, so we'll get, we'll get used to it. We'll get used to it. Yeah.
14:44
H- humble brag here. Same thing happened to me the first time I got a haircut in Russia. Dead serious. [laughs] You got a good, you got a good cranium shape? Dead, dead serious, yeah. [laughs] Really? Yeah.
14:52
Uh, besides fading Coco, and Coco's had all kinds of serve problems, fading her in the sense that you're taking- Yeah... Tomljanovic, uh, plus a set and a half, not taking, uh, Ana to win.
15:02
Anything else at the US Open today? I ha- I got, I have to pull it up. My internet's not working super great, but the, um, the, um, uh,
15:12
general vibe I'm getting is that players who have played a lot of tennis to this point in the calendar are really underperforming so far, uh, and the players who are a little bit more fresh are, uh, are doing well.
15:22
Um, I, oh, I bet, I bet some Cilich. Cilich over Alexander Bublik. That was lean. Yeah. Um, it's worth mentioning on the Alexander Bublik numbers, um, did you know, would d- would you even... I, I, this blew me away.
15:37
He has played 35 straight matches on natural surfaces. He hasn't played on a hard court since Miami, and he h- is three and nine on hard court so far this season, and the losses are gross.
15:53
Do you know what his one year- So, Ci- His one year numbers on hard court were like 88, something like that. When like- Yeah... the average is 100. He's, he's... Yes. Yeah.
16:01
He's, I don't think he likes playing on hard court, Gil. [laughs] I think he likes the natural surfaces. He l- he loves clay all of a sudden. Uh, so. That's his thing. He, he- I, well- Yeah, yeah...
16:10
he's, he's, he's figuring out his game on clay. He obviously loves grass. Um, and I think he's gonna love, uh, heading on to the next clay challenger and, uh, let Cilich move into round two.
16:20
By the way, Cilich was one of the last that I cut. I leaned to Cilich. Cilich, by the way, for those who don't know, actually won the US Open in 2014.
16:28
He's one of these rare players that won a slam during the Federer, Nadal, Djokovic era of tennis. Uh, but here we are 11 years later. I just quite couldn't pull the trigger on that.
16:39
Uh, we have a few props, uh, but I just wanna get your thoughts on this. Maybe you have a thought on these, maybe you don't. These are, uh, to advance further in the US Open, then we'll get to football after this.
16:48
I'm curious if you, if you have plays on any of this. Um, Iga, where do we have these here? You're right. Iga versus Aryna Sabalenka. Iga's minus 125, Sabalenka, uh, plus 105, uh, minus 105 on the comeback.
17:01
I think we all know where you stand on that, given the draw. Yes, Iga would be the lean there?
17:07
Yeah, I, I mean, Iga is, uh, probably my fair is closer to minus 175 there, just because Sabalenka so realistically is not getting out of Q1. Yeah.
17:16
Whereas Iga, I think I- Iga not get, coming out of Q4 would utterly shock me. Any of the other five there sort of, uh, move the needle for you? Paolini, uh, Paolini, uh, Anisimova is a toss-up.
17:30
I, I would take Andreeva over Gauff. I would too. S- especially at price. I think Gauff, um, likely gets eliminated by Osaka in round four. Um, I think, uh, Djokovic, Zverev. Zverev is probably a decent price there.
17:45
I think he can win Q2, whereas I think Djokovic goes down to Fritz in the quarterfinals. Plus 160. Although that's pretty, that's- Plus 160 on Zverev? Yeah, plus 160 is not bad. Yeah.
17:54
Um, Shelton, Draper is a fun one because they're both slated for stage of elimination when they face, uh, the, the good guys [laughs] in the quarterfinals. Mm-hmm.
18:05
Um, Draper would face, uh, um, Sinner, and Shelton would face Alcaraz, and I think, I, I'm starting to warm up on this pos- this opinion that Shelton can take Alcaraz down in the right scenario Um, I think there's a world where if that match is at night, and if, uh, the conditions are right, that I'm gonna be sh- on Shelton money line over Alcaraz.
18:28
Um, that's basically, he's the only one, you know, Shelton, I would say, is the only player that I would give a reasonable chance to oust either Sinner or Alcaraz at this tournament.
18:37
I don't think he can beat both of them. Um, but if he can, he, he could, um, be the spoiler, uh, that keeps, uh, keeps us from getting a third straight Sinner, Alcaraz final. What about that last one?
18:48
De Minaur, +160 versus Taylor Fritz. Who will advance further? Yeah, I'd, I'd, I would say Fritz is the right answer, but at -230, that's a pass. Yeah. Okay. Um, interesting thoughts on Ben Shelton.
18:59
Chris Felica, who has Ben Shelton to win this tournament, will be happy to hear that. Oh, he does? Yeah. Last, uh, last few minutes here. I wanna get, I wanna get the Drew Dincic.
19:08
We're nine days before the regular season kicks off in the National Football League. Is there something you have come to late, um, that you hadn't really thought you'd get to all off-season, bet-wise? Ooh.
19:21
Uh, I mean, uh, there's now a pretty s- I, I, to, to, to go full circle to your, um, your tease for Dr. Bob, you'd be surprised at the separation between my number one- Ooh... and number two in the NFL, Gil. Oh.
19:36
Uh, my gap is now pretty significant. Uh, Baltimore is my number one. I would make them a plus 6.7 right now, which is starting to get into that rare air. They look like a perfectly complete team to me.
19:50
Uh, I think they clearly deserve the number one power rated spot. My number two is Philly at 5.7, so I've got a full point of separation between my top two.
20:00
Um, and, uh, I think, uh, um, I can't wait for Sunday Night Football. Baltimore looks like a really, really, really solid play against Buffalo, in my opinion.
20:11
I'm not sure if you guys have seen this, but Buffalo doesn't have a secondary right now. Yeah. And, uh, in particular, they don't have safeties that they are happy with.
20:20
Um, so good luck defending Andrews over the middle. Good luck stopping Derrick Henry at the second level. Uh, I think, uh, I think the Ravens are gonna look great on opening night on the road.
20:30
And a heck of a teaser leg as well, which we'll get to later on in, uh, Teaser Tuesday. I wouldn't count on it. If you wanna, if you wanna tease it, I would tease it now. I think that thing's close in pick.
20:40
Well- Maybe even Baltimore, small favorite... yeah, yeah. If you're gonna do it, do it now. Um, that's interesting. Have you ever, in past years, have you ever had a one-point separation between one and two? No. No, no.
20:50
First time ever. This is the biggest gap. This is the biggest gap. And, like, I guess, like, my general macro feeling as we are rounding into form here is that there are a lot of bad defenses in the NFL.
21:00
Um, I think if you're playing totals week one, you need to be extremely selective about where you're playing unders.
21:07
Um, there are just so many of these defenses where there's a very clear flaw, and if I can see it, then certainly the coaches know it.
21:14
And I think that just generally, the, uh, kind of normal paradigm of defenses are ahead of offenses to start the season is not necessarily gonna hold this year, on top of the fact that the kicking, uh, kicking rules, uh, you know, the change of, um, uh, you know, how you can, uh, adapt the ball and practice with the ball over the balance of the s- of the week, um, I think that's gonna have a meaningful impact on these totals.
21:39
So, um, I'm prepared to wake up week two, week three, and a lot of the sort of sentiment we had after preseason week one, where we were like, "Wow, f-
21:47
f- 15 small things are just influencing scoring to where, you know, the total close was missing by a meaningful amount."
21:53
Like, that feels like it could be part of the narrative early in, early, early portion of the season.
21:58
Um, and, uh, you know, I'm, I'm gonna have a, a nice little round robin, uh, a little round robin going of, uh, probably about five overs in week one to see if we can capitalize on that. Wow.
22:08
Um, and then lastly, how many, uh, millions entries did you end up with, and how many survivor entries? So I'm on, I'm three and three. Um, it turns out I'm, I, I chickened out going full boat on survivor- [laughs]...
22:21
because I just am not a very good survivor player. Uh, and then the three, uh, millions entries, Andy's gonna do one on his own, I'm gonna do one on my own.
22:29
We're gonna go head-to-head gentleman's wager on who can perform better, and then we're gonna do a ranked choice, uh, collaborative entry. So those- There you go... are our three millions shots. There you go.
22:38
Drew Dincic, that's the Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge. Um, good luck with the meetings today at NBC, Drew. Thank you so much. Best of luck, guys. NFC North, next.
22:52
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
We invite you to check out the sharp plays at sharpplays.com, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
23:06
Check 'em out, sharpplays.com. Uh, we hit tweets and beating the book. JT, Speed to Burn, "Gil, tell Drew maybe I'm jealous I'm bald." Yeah. Yeah.
23:18
Jack Oldquire, "Laurie and I listening to our numbers game on our way to Jimmy's in St. Croix Falls for some fishing, golf, and sports betting. Oops, scratch the sports betting. No can do in Wisconsin.
23:26
Enjoying the show and now an extra hour. Awesome." Thank you. Um, Mariners Geek, "I know the secret guest when the Crag Man comes on Thursday. Vinnie Barbarino. I'll take Bill with a TKO in round one."
23:36
Oh, man, I wish it was Vinnie Barbarino. I wish that was the guest. I gotta watch that doc. Oh, man. I have to see that. Vinnie Barbarino, con man. Still asking Bill for money all, after all this time. That's wild.
23:50
That was a wild story. What is that on? Is that on, what, was it on- I don't remember what he said. Uh- Yeah, I gotta watch it. Um, let's talk some NFC North. NFC North.
23:59
It may be, and I, and I just wanna do this again in the same sort of way where it's like, and again, Cleve does such a great job with this. Shout out to Cleve T. Aim his, his, uh, his football preview.
24:09
But this division more than any, for the four teams, you say one thing good, you can say one thing bad. Again, just to give sort of some context as they enter the season.
24:19
In a division- Where, man, oh man, I mean, you talk about, like, logjam at the top. Lions to win this division, Lions to win the division, plus 160. Green Bay plus 225. Vikings plus 320. Bears plus 550.
24:39
Whew. To make the playoffs, Detroit minus 165, Green Bay minus 150, Minnesota minus 120, Chicago plus 160. We'll start with the Lions. It, it's gotta be the tightest of any division, right? Am I not... Am I...
24:51
Is there one I'm missing? Top to bottom, yes. You're not missing one. A- NFC West would be next? I guess NFC West would come the closest. Yeah. Yeah. Um, Lions,
25:03
last year, 15 and 2, and then of course the beat down by Jayden Daniels and the incomparable one Terry McLaurin in the playoffs. Second-best expected points out of defense on third and fourth downs last year.
25:15
Number one in red zone expected points allowed. So they were great in high-leverage situations. No team suffered more impactful injuries on defense than the Lions in 2024.
25:26
In fact, by adjusted games lost, they suffered the sixth-worst injury luck on defense of any team in the last 25 years. And we all can remember that. Ancelone, remember, uh, Malcolm Rodriguez,
25:39
Marcus Davenport, Derrick Barnes. No team was called for more defensive holding penalties resulting in automatic first downs last year than Detroit. We all remember Terion Arnold getting flagged left and right for that.
25:50
So again, really good in high-leverage situations. Maybe that goes a little worse this year. No team suffered more impactful injuries. Maybe that goes better this year. Detroit went seven and two in one-score games.
26:03
Maybe they don't do as well in one-score games, but Lions fumbled the football at the third-lowest rate in the league, and then recovered those fumbles at the fourth-highest rate.
26:13
They lost just three fumbles all year, tied for second-lowest in the NFL. So maybe that doesn't go as well. In fact, it probably won't go as well. Lions were elite high-leverage spots both sides of the ball.
26:24
And also compared to last season when the Lions played 14 of 18 total games indoors. Remember that? They will, quote-unquote, "Only play 10 indoor games this year."
26:34
On the other hand, they lead the league with a plus 13 net rest differential, play five road games with a rest advantage and none with a disadvantage. And remember, it's Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn gone now. Mm-hmm.
26:46
Surprise retirement of Frank Ragnow as center, and the loss of guard Kevin Zeitler. Ragnow was top five graded by, uh, Pro Football Focus last three seasons.
26:58
So again, there's a lot w- that went their way last year that you c- you can probably expect not to be as well. And then when it comes to injury luck, it's probably gonna go a whole lot better.
27:06
Now, what we said about the one-score games with the, uh, Chiefs is, "Yeah, but it's Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Maybe there's something to that." Have we gotten to that point with the Lions yet?
27:14
Maybe there's something to that with their one-score games. I, I think I could, I think I could make a slight argument for that if Ben Johnson was still around. Correct.
27:22
But with him out, no, I, I would say that's probably due for some regression. I, um, uh, uh, g- I, I, th- this is, this team, you, you've got a tough schedule this year.
27:31
I, I think the offensive line losses are significant. I think the coordinator losses are significant. Um- You never really know when the coordinators go what happens. You, you don't- You just never know...
27:40
you don't, but man, I think- Yeah... I think Johnson and Glenn are both gonna work out as head coaches.
27:44
I, I think that was one of the better, better n- better coaching staff setups that we've seen in the league in a while, Ben and Detroit. See, see I definitely don't know that. I don't...
27:50
When, when a great assistants become head coaches, you never know. No, that's true. That's true. But, but, but the loss of a coordinator- Right, right, yeah... more, more, uh, reliable.
27:58
Uh, but yeah, I think they're gonna, I think they're gonna feel that. You're right. That's the better way of putting it instead of those guys having success right away in the NFL.
28:05
They were significant losses for this Detroit team, though. This is... Like, it's not a team I'm running to fade. I, I think you're still talking about one of the better teams in the, in the NFC.
28:13
But, you know, with the rest of the division being as good as they are, I, this is not a division you could get me to make a bet to, right now to win the division. Well, let's go... It, it's really tough.
28:23
Packers, a lot of people, right, including our own Wyatt Tomchek, very bullish on the Packers. A lot of yin and yang here as well.
28:29
Even though they won 11 games last year, they went two and six, just two and six against playoff teams, and one of those wins was a five-point win over a beat-up Rams teams without the starting wideouts.
28:39
They did face the second-toughest schedule of opponents based on win percentage last year.
28:43
And Jordan Love had to face the single toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses, pass defenses, which included nine games against top 10 expected points added pass defenses.
28:54
Their top three wideouts, we all remember this from last season, Wicks, Reed, and, and, uh, Dobbs, all ranked inside the top 30 in drop percentage. Mm-hmm. Wicks and Reed were both top six.
29:05
Defense played well, but they certainly benefited from turnovers, generating the second-most and the third-most EPA. They forced 21 turnovers alone on first and second downs. That's ridiculous.
29:15
And the defense forced the third-most fumbles in the league and recovered those fumbles at the eighth-highest rate. Again, that's fumble luck. You cannot control fumble luck, fumble recovery luck.
29:24
Packers defense also had the good fortune of facing the eighth-easiest set of opposing quarterbacks. Faced the second-lowest percentage of snaps against top 10 quarterbacks EPA. And remember they also faced...
29:34
Remember they had, like, weather luck? They faced Brandon Allen of the Niners in the snow, freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving versus Tua, rain at home versus Kyler, and rain versus Jared Goff.
29:46
And their cornerbacks stink. Hobbs, Nixon, and Bullard might be the worst trio of corners in the league. So again, bullish in some regards, reason to be bearish in others. Vikings.
30:00
Minnesota went over their closing win total by seven wins last year. [laughs] It's the highest mark since tw- 2004. Brian Flores led the Vikings to the second-ranked EPA defense in the NFL.
30:11
But remember, even though they won 14 games, they ranked just ninth in point differential. They were also nine and one in one-score games. That was Sam Darnold, by the way, y'all.
30:20
They led the league in overall turnovers forced. NPA gain from turnovers. In addition, their opponents drew the most false start penalties, and also committed the most offensive holding penalties.
30:32
You could say Justin Jefferson had something to do with that. Their schedule following a week six bye week, they face a gauntlet. Philly, Chargers, Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay.
30:43
And remember, no more Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin in their secondary. Now they're gonna rely on Isaiah Rogers and Jeff Okudah. Oh, good luck. Again, season win total's nine and a half. They really getting to that?
30:58
Bears, lastly. One of the worst offenses in the NFL last year, 26 in EPA, 30th in success rate. Team that was out-gained in all but two games on a yards per play basis. Led in only eight games this s- last season.
31:12
You remember that? Tied for the lowest in the league. The Bears only had a lead in eight games last year. Panthers, Patriots- I wish I could say it surprises me... Titans, they all led more than that.
31:21
I'm sorry, what'd you say? Said I wish I could say it s- uh, that surprises me. Bears were three and seven in one-score games. But remember, their defense was really good in the red zone.
31:30
They allowed the second lowest red zone touchdown percentage, ninth lowest third down percentage. They benefited from the ninth best injury luck, and finished number one in defensive fumble recovery percentage.
31:40
So as bad as the Bears were, a lot of that stuff was good fortune for them. And a lot of that stuff won't be as good this year, the luck factor. So sorry about that, Bears fans.
31:51
By the way, that 72% defensive fumble recovery rate, re- uh, recovery rate, pardon me, a full 15% greater than the second best team, Pittsburgh.
32:00
They are slated to play nine games against top 10 Super Bowl odds teams this year, the most in the league, and their final six games, brutal. Green Bay twice, Philly, San Francisco, Detroit.
32:12
Well, and they fortified their offensive line, right? Jonah Jackson, Joe Thuney, and, uh, and Drew Dalman. Yeah. He- Ostensibly to take care of the, uh, the passing protection for Caleb Williams, but guess what?
32:22
They're not good pass protectors. They're good run blockers. So if the goal was to help Caleb in pass protection, not sure that was the antidote. They do have Dennis Allen as their DC.
32:32
Caleb, 27% pressure to sack ratio, third highest in the league last year. Even with a clean pocket, he generated the second lowest EPA in the NFL. All that to say, that doesn't sound good for the Bears.
32:43
That doesn't sound good for the Vikings. And there's a lot of good and bad for both the Lions and the Packers at the top.
32:49
And the, the net result is it doesn't generate a lot of bets at the top, but maybe at the bottom it does, for me. Maybe there's still a Minnesota- Have you gone any- uh, with anything this week?
32:58
I have not yet, but maybe there's a Minnesota under and a Chicago under- I'm very-... feel. See, Minnesota, Minnesota, I'm almost never a bet against guy, right?
33:05
I've been betting, I feel like I've been betting the Vikings, uh, for the past few years here regularly. I, I, I, I gotta wait and see, uh, on McCarthy. We'll see. Uh, but this is another coaching staff I trust.
33:16
That defense, how they keep getting it done year in and year out with a, with I think some very average to below average talent on that side of the ball is, is always impressive. Bears, I...
33:27
The O-line additions i- are gonna be big regardless. I think that will help. How much they help in the pass pro will be, will be interesting to see. Packers would, i- were, were my pick in the guide. Okay. 2.0 out now.
33:40
Let's look at some week one teasers on the other side. Man, I'm getting true stuff with football. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
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33:59
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34:08
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34:18
Do you, did you, uh, you got, did you do your homework while you were on vacation? Do you have added bets in the, uh, NFL guide? No. Ooh. No. I've got, I've got some in there, but they're n- Oh. They're kinda not fun.
34:28
I, I feel, I felt a little bad. I got done typing up, uh, my, my added bets. They're just not sexy. Nothing sexy. [laughs] Unless you're into Dak Prescott comeback player of the year.
34:38
What would you consider, oh, that's your sexy bet? That's- No, it's not. Oh, okay. It's like, they're all, like, short odds. Like, there was nothing fun. We get- Feel a little bad. We get tweets.
34:45
Mike Gooch, "I see some Chad Kroeger similarities with Drew. Love the show extension, guys." Thank you. I had to look up Chad Kroeger. Apparently he's in Nickelback. Yeah. Yeah.
34:56
Remember when that, that period where every group was singing like that? They all sounded the same. With arms wide open. [laughs] Uh, Mako. Shades of Mako. "Congrats on i- congrats on the extra hour.
35:08
You're a gem in the industry, and you deserve it." Oh, thank you. I'm a gem in the industry, he says. That's very nice of you. Thank you so much, Mako. That's very kind.
35:15
B Mart, "KC minus 129 to win the division at faraway places. LFJ." Yeah, Kansas City Chiefs to win the division, man. I, I, I don't know how you don't bet that. I really don't. I really don't.
35:28
Um, can I, before we get to the, uh, teaser stuff, can I talk about, by the way, I'm told that's alt rock bands that we were referring to with the- Yeah. Who was that?
35:36
Nineties, 2000s alt rock band was Creed I was thinking of, yeah. Creed. That's right. That's right. Uh, before we get to the teaser Tuesdays- Great halftime show... can I, uh, re- Remember, was it the Cowboys, uh...
35:46
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Now I, I'm gonna have to look up exactly which game it was. Um, so w- I have the group text with, uh, Fezzik, Will Hill, Felika, and Todd Wishnev.
35:56
And, you know, sometimes we do like, we, we just talk about random sports bets all day long. But then e- every once in a while when there's a down moment, like someone will throw out a trivia question of some kind. Yeah.
36:06
And I don't know. I've gotten, this is s- uh, this has nothing to do with anything other than this is a, a, a, a commentary on the evolution of one's brain and the evolution of how we take in football.
36:17
So Todd says to me, so it was, it, up until I was late, late 30s, I had instant recall on all kinds of details.
36:24
And I never forget the first time, by the way- I was at the Hard Rock in Vegas where I couldn't pull a name out of my head that I knew was in there, but I couldn't remember. It, it was a...
36:33
I was like, "Who's that Saints running back who gained, like, 1,000 yards in the, in the late '80s?" Dalton Hilliard.
36:39
I couldn't come up with the name Dalton Hilliard, and I remember from that point since, right, the brain deteriorates slowly, right?
36:46
Now to the point, Kelly, where there are memories that I don't remember unless they're triggered. Hmm. So Todd a- asked this trivia question the other day. He said, "Uh, okay, Gill, here's the question."
36:57
He's like, 'cause he's a Steelers fan, I'm a Washington fan. He says, "How many times did the Steelers play at RFK Stadium?" RFK Stadium, the stadium I grew up in, watching Washington win three Super Bowls in.
37:07
And, and, and he goes, "Bonus if you can name when." So I go, "Okay, you just telegraphed the pass. I, I assume it's only once since you said, [laughs] bonus, you can name when." Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
37:18
And he goes, "Yeah, it is once. Sorry." It was, like, one- Yeah... or, like, zero. Yeah. So it was one, and so I- For some reason or another... I, I couldn't... He says, "Yeah, it's one."
37:25
So I couldn't remember, but then I g- I said to him, I go, "Was it a Bubby Brister game?" Somewhere in the deep recesses of my brain, I was like, "Was it a Bubby Brister game?" He goes, "Yes, it was."
37:33
And it triggered this memory, and I had some people ask me to, to have more of my dad and my mom on the show. This is, it, it, I, yeah, a suppressed memory. This is 100% true.
37:42
I'm in college, and I used to be able to take in Skins games only by going to a bar in Boston and asking them to point the satellite dish at, you know, where we could watch the local broadcast of, of Washington games.
37:53
And so this was a Sunday where they're playing Pittsburgh, and for some reason I couldn't get it, but I was aware based on updates on games.
38:00
And by the way, in, in that time period, Kelly, score updates didn't hap- they weren't on a rolling graphic. They happened when they decided to put them up- Right... on the screen.
38:11
So I saw that the Skins were making a comeback, so I, I was dying.
38:15
I wanted to know what was going on, and I got the impression with very little time in, left in the game, I was like, the only way I could do this was by calling my mom back in DC. So I got on a payphone.
38:26
This is a true story. A payphone. A payphone, by the way, you have to ke- keep putting in quarters if, if your time expired. This is, it sounds like it, I lived in 1940. [laughs] This is, this is 1989, right? Yeah.
38:38
And I'm so glad Todd s- he sparked this story, but, um, I had to get my mom, I try to get my mom watch... I said, "Please, can you w- can you put on the, the Skins game?" "What do you mean put the..."
38:49
I said, "Can you please turn on the Redskins game? I want, I wanna, uh, you have to tell me if they win or lose." "Okay." You know, it takes forever for my mom to do it. Finally, she gets there. I go, "Okay."
38:57
I go, I go, "What is happening?" She goes, "What do you mean, what is happening?" I go, "Okay, is there, uh, w- w- we're, we're in the white uniforms." Oh, this is great. "Is, is there a guy with the number eight?"
39:07
Chip Lohmiller, the Redskins kicker, w- wore number eight back in the... I go, "Do you see an eight?" "I don't know if there's an eight, Gillie. I don't know." Wait, why'd you ask that? 'Cause you thought- 'Cause-...
39:15
you thought they were lining up for a field goal? 'Cause, yeah, because based on the time and what the score was. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So I, so I said, I go, "Okay, Eema." You're trying to triangulate all this.
39:22
She goes, "They say... Yes, I see an eight. I see an eight." "Okay," I go, "Great." I go, "Okay, Eema." I go, my mom, Eema. I go, "Eema, here's what's gonna happen. They're gonna show two vertical yellow poles.
39:33
[laughs] Someone is gonna try to kick the ball between those po-" "What? What poles? What do you mean? What's happening?" She goes, "I don't know. They're jumping up and down." [laughs] I go, "Wait, did the..."
39:45
I said, "Did the ball go through the poles?" She goes, "What? W- I don't know. Someone's, someone's jump..." I go, wait, I s- I don't even think I said uniforms. I go, "Who's jumping up?
39:53
The white people or the Black people?" [laughs] 'Cause the Steelers were wearing [laughs] black uniforms. Like, she goes, "The white people." I'm go, "Yes, winner! Thanks, Eema." She goes, "That's why you called me?"
40:01
I go, "Yes, thank you." Oh, my gosh. [laughs] Click. Right? So this is how Todd's trivia question sparked this memory. This is how we used to take in football back in the day. Like, this is 35 years ago.
40:12
We did not have these luxuries that began with DirecTV in the mid-'90s, and now the pendulum has swung so far that we are annoyed by how many options there are, right? Y- yes. That YouTube TV has this problem with Fox.
40:26
Maybe they work it out, maybe they don't.
40:27
The fact that, like, on Thursday nights, we have to, like, go to Amazon or whatever it is to watch football, and it's like, so this is the evolution of football, and it's all one big celebration of the sport.
40:38
I'm just saying I'm not sure I wouldn't have rather had it that way back [laughs] in the day just for those kinds of stories. I read, I read this great, I think, I wanna say it was New York Times.
40:47
I don't remember who did. This was, like, two years ago at this point.
40:50
It may be, it may be a little bit less, but it was an article basically about how, how, or a story about how we are just on the same exact c- course currently that TV was back then heading towards cable.
41:02
'Cause now you're getting all these new, you know, all these stories about, hey, some of these streaming services are gonna collaborate so you can go to one place to watch all the sports that, you know, that y- instead of having to go in and out of different apps, and you're like, that was the whole idea of how cable got created, was so [laughs] you could get all of this.
41:18
Ugh, it's just, it, it's just the, how far we have come in this and to the point now of annoyance- Yeah... that the pendulum has swung as far as it has. Teaser Tuesday, week one. Do we have an intro? We do. We do.
41:30
Bang it. Teaser time. Eh, I guess we don't. No time. It's teaser time. Ah, there we go. Thank you, Ryan. All right. Here are your, uh, Wong teaser options. Thank you, Ryan. [laughs] Looks like Ryan's not back there.
41:44
[laughs] That's him s- that's him talking. Yep. Uh, teaser Tuesday, week one teaser options. These are all Wong teaser legs.
41:51
Again, Stanford Wong, pseudonym for a gentleman named John back in Southern California who wrote the book on sports betting back in the day. Um, best teaser legs,
42:03
home or road dogs between one and a half and two and a half points that you can tease through the three and the seven, or a home favorite of between seven and a half or eight and a half points that you could tease down through the seven to three.
42:14
Not road favorites of that, but just home favorites of that. So here are your teaser options. Dolphins, one and a half point dogs at Indianapolis. Falcons, two-point dogs versus Tampa Bay. Falcons are at home.
42:24
Broncos, seven and a half point f- home favorites versus Tennessee. Seahawks, two and a half point home favorites, excuse me, home dogs, pardon me, versus San Francisco. Lions, one and a half point dogs at Green Bay.
42:35
Texans, two and a half point dogs at the Rams. Ravens, one and a half point dogs at Buffalo, and the Bears, one and a half point dogs home versus Minnesota Monday night Best teaser legs.
42:47
I like a bunch of these, Kelly Yeah, me too. Me too, but like, I, how do you, do you- I tr- I try not to play teasers ear- like week one, week two Yeah.
42:56
Early in the season, a season, I think you gotta be careful with parlays, you gotta be p- careful with teasers. I mean, every... I mean, what, just think about the Bengals the past couple years.
43:04
I mean, it's just week, these early weeks, sometimes even stuff that you think you know comes true four weeks later, and the first couple weeks are just squirrely. They're just weird. I agree, but Bron- But I hear you.
43:16
[laughs] But Broncos-Ravens to me is still a great teaser leg. Bron- still, still a great six-point teaser.
43:22
Broncos down to one and a half against a rookie quarterback at elevation against last year's number one defense in Cam Ward, against the Broncos, and then the Ravens catching seven and a half at Buffalo, who hates their safeties, as Drew just talked about.
43:36
Give me that one. Broncos-Ravens, best teaser on the board for me. Josh Allen laying the smackdown. I'm gonna side bet that one, Dinzi. God, you love Josh Allen. He's gonna lay a smackdown on this Ravens team.
43:45
I can't wait for that game though, too. It's so fun. I, I would think you would love the Texans leg the most. Oh, I, the, you, I was just gonna say, that is, that would be number one on my...
43:51
I'm w- I'm waiting to see if that hits three. I'll be o- I'll be over that, all over that side. I mean, I, it's two teams I'm high on.
43:57
You just wonder about, you know, Stafford, any li- I don't even wanna say lingering, but just lack of practice time with some of these guys that he's gotten. I, if they go up to a field goal, I'll be in on that.
44:07
If I had to do a teaser, it would be Tex- I'm gonna go Texans-Dolphins, actually. The only th- I love five of these. The only three I don't like are the Dolphins, Seahawks, and Bears.
44:16
Everyone else, Ravens, Broncos, Falcons, Texans, Lions, I could be talked into. I don't love the Seahawks or the Bears. You could talk me into any of the others. Yeah. And that's a pretty high volume- Yeah...
44:26
teaser like list for us, 'cause usually in the season- Mm-hmm... we don't like nearly as many. God help us. Dr. Bob, next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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