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Aug 26, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
47:28
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Our number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158, Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin in the hizzy.
0:21
What are you down to weight-wise? I'm gonna ask you every day. 228. 228, oh. No, no, but you and, you and Monte Sano got me doing this whole get on the scale every single day thing. Yeah, man.
0:31
And it, it just, I don't know. They, it pisses you off more than it gets you happy. Monte Sano knows about this stuff. 'Cause then you get on there and you're like, "How'd I gain four pounds yesterday?" Weird.
0:39
But then like two days later it evens out, and like, I don't know, weird stuff. Weird. I just wanna fire on teasers now, Gil. I wanna fire on teasers. [laughs] So many teaser legs look good.
0:48
I, I don't do that week one, never. Mr. Rothstein on Twitter, "Adding a third hour? My mind can't handle it." Vegas Sparky, "Hey, Kelly, who was on that candle next to Gil yesterday, and where do I get one?"
0:59
I have so many, I have so many questions about this tweet. This, uh, this was given- Wouldn't you wanna know who's on the candle before you request getting one? It was Jaden Daniels dressed up as Jesus, I believe. Yes.
1:12
Given to me by the, uh, the gentleman, Anthony C- Big Tone? Big Tone, right. Yes, Big Tone... who won the, uh, free entry. Yeah. I have a, I have a Jaden Daniels c- uh, candle.
1:23
Ryan Thompson, "Sad to report that Creed is a favorite of Gen Z. Divorced dad rock is the new yacht rock." Huh. Jason Stark- I agree with that...
1:30
on, about, about my story, says, "The 10-minute ticker, God help you if you missed it. You may never see the score again." It was so true. Uh, this is- Oh, what, what, what pisses you off more, though?
1:39
A slow ticker or a fast ticker? Oh, get... Well, I mean, the, the- I feel like they've really dialed in the science- Yeah... but both of them can be irritating.
1:48
What he's referring to, though, is that if you missed it, you went another- Right... 10 minutes and there was no, y- I mean, you didn't know scores out of town.
1:54
It, when you went to games, when you went to RFK, oh, I remember at RFK, the PA announcer, like in between the third and fourth quarter, would come on, "Scores from around the league," and we'd all go crazy if the Cowboys- Yeah...
2:06
were losing, but we didn't know the scores. I remember that as a kid. Bro, it's not the '40s. That's the '80s. Yep.
2:12
All right, we got more tweets, but I, well, we got this gentleman on, and I'm thrilled to have him for a couple segments, uh, the long-awaited return of Dr. Bob to the show, Dr.
2:20
Bob Stoll, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @DrBobSports and drbobsports.com, predictive sports modeling pioneer. How you doing, Bob? I'm doing well. Good to be back on.
2:33
It was good to see you guys in Vegas at Bet Bash. Yeah. My first time, my first time going, I was sort of laying back. I actually wasn't even part of the conference. I didn't even buy a, buy a ticket.
2:42
I just kind of hung out [laughs] and hung out with friends, uh, old friends that, uh, that I hadn't seen in a while. Yeah, we went over to the Unabated thing. We hung out with Jack and Rufus and all that.
2:52
We went to dinner. Yeah. It was great. Great seeing your wife. It was awesome. And right when- Yeah, good time... good times.
2:57
Uh, now here's the thing, and I'm, before we launch into your season win totals that still exist out there, I just wanna ask you, are you aware, so when you're, the morning when you release your college football season win totals, for sharp bettors, this is still a, a moment in their sports betting calendar that they mark and that they are prepared for.
3:17
Are you, from your vantage point, aware that this is happening? Not really. I don't really pay attention. I'm not sitting there looking at the odds moving instantly.
3:28
I'm just working on releasing the next game, 'cause I release them one at a time, obviously. Uh, no, I'm not, I'm not aware.
3:33
I know, you know, some people are excited about them, and people tweet about it, you know, "When's Bob gonna be on with his win totals?" and such.
3:40
But as far as clients, I know they're, they don't wanna miss them, but I didn't realize it was, uh, something you put on your calendar necessarily. Well, it, well, it is. It is, Bob.
3:48
And so in that, in that regard, l- you, you did this last week is when you released them. Yeah. 60, 60, 31 and 2 on season win totals for Dr. Bob in college football. 60, 31 and 2. Um, I'm told that's good, Bob.
4:03
Yeah, no, I'll get it done. Someone's telling me right here that's very good. He'll get it done. Um, okay. Yeah, yeah, I coulda had two more wins if not for one Hail Mary pass last year.
4:10
[laughs] I, I wish I had bet on that coming up on this. [laughs] Oh, my God, that woulda been a great hedge, you know, but, uh- Yeah... all right, Hail Mary on this play or, or I'm gonna win these two.
4:20
Um, of course- And that, and that was, and that was who again? That was Jacksonville State. I had Jacksonville State under, and I had Louisiana Tech over on the win totals. Louisiana Tech's winning the whole game.
4:29
Jackson State's at, you know, midfielder their own 45 or something. Last play of regulation, they throw up a Hail Mary and it gets caught. Oh, right.
4:37
And they go to overtime, and Jacksonville State wins by a field goal, and basically that took Jacksonville State from an under winner to a half win over loser, and it took Louisiana Tech from a, uh, over five winner with six wins to an over five push.
4:53
Okay. So that, that one play cost me a couple wins, but- Well, s- [laughs]...
4:58
since we're talking about it, let's talk about four season win totals that are still available, uh, at, at, at the right price for listeners, and one of them, I believe, again, is under on Jacksonville State, yes?
5:10
Yeah, those bastards. No, [laughs] yeah, I, I just think, you know, here's a team that's really, obviously starting with the head coach, has changed a lot.
5:18
Rich Rodriguez had built that program up the previous few years, and he's back at West Virginia. Um, but Jacksonville State, pretty good team last year.
5:26
Um, on a, even on a national scale, you know, for a CUSA team, they were great. CUSA's the worst conference.
5:32
Um, they were 0.2 yards per play better than an average FBS team on offense and just 0.5 yards per play worse than an average F- FBS team defensively, which is fine for Conference USA.
5:44
They, they were one and four outside the conference, because Conference USA teams barely, hardly ever beat a decent team outside of conference.
5:50
Their only win was against a horrible Southern Miss team, and they were eight and one in the conference. So they were nine and five with their bowl win.
5:57
They, they, they should've been six and seven or seven and six in the regular season or seven and five or whatever it was, but they were a decent team.
6:03
The biggest downgrade, I mean, obviously losing the, the head coach is something They lose their quarterback. They go from Tyler Huff, and maybe not a lot of people knew about Tyler Huff last year.
6:12
He averaged 7.7 yards per pass play, but his real gift was running the ball. He ran for 1,488 yards on 207 runs, not including sacks, which go into my pass play metrics.
6:24
They're replacing Huff with Gavin Wimsatt, who started at Kentucky then went on to Rutgers. He's been terrible everywhere he's gone.
6:32
Now, he's, he's got his chances, 'cause he was one of those guys with arm talent, but he can't...
6:37
He c- you know, like I said, he could, he could throw the ball through the barn, he throws it so hard, but he can't hit the barn. [laughs] So, um, you know, he's got 484 career pass attempts.
6:47
He's only completed 47%- Ooh... of 484 pass attempts. He keeps getting chances, and he keeps being terrible. He's averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play in all those, all those, all those chances he's gotten.
7:01
And he's a decent runner. He averages 5.2 yards per run. For a quarterback, that's about, eh, that's pretty good, and he runs a fairly good amount of time.
7:08
But Huff averaged 7.2 yards per run, so they're not coming close to replacing Huff at quarterback, passing or throwing.
7:16
And I'm pretty happy to bet against any team with a quarterback that doesn't complete half of his passes. And talent-wise, the Gamecocks roster ranks 122nd in my talent metrics.
7:27
Um, so I think they're gonna play to their talents. Uh, I don't know if they can be coached up or not. New coaching staff, a lot of new faces. I just don't see them being very good [laughs] at all.
7:37
I think they're gonna be terrible.
7:39
I give them less than a 20% win probability in four of their first five games, at UCF this week, versus Liberty, who's the conference favorite, at Georgia Southern, and at Southern Miss, who's been rebuilt this year.
7:49
Basically, the entire Marshall team went over to Southern Miss with their head coach. Um, so I say, I have less than 20% chance to win four of th- those four games. Two other games with about a 30% win probability.
8:00
That's at FIU and versus Western Kentucky. And, um, I have them as underdogs against Sam Houston, at Middle Tennessee, and at UTEP. So I have 4.4 projected wins for, for Jacksonville State.
8:11
Now, this one's all over the place as far as w- win total. It, it opened at six and a half, and now that's up to, that's up past two, minus 200 odds. I still think under six and a half.
8:21
If your book's showing six and a half, up to minus 235 odds is fine there. The other books are showing five and a half, which is fine also. You can go under five and a half wins, up to minus 130.
8:31
If your book happens to be showing six, then up to minus 180 at under six. But Jacksonville State under. All right. Bob, any consideration, uh, playing against them in this first game Thursday night against UCF?
8:41
I heard, I heard Adam Burke on the network last night, and he had, uh, I think, similar thoughts to you w- w- with this Jacksonville State, uh, team heading into the season.
8:49
Yeah, I already released, uh, Central Florida when the line was 17, so, uh- [laughs] There you go. [laughs] It's eight- it's 18 and a half now. Um, you know, so. Yeah. Uh, uh, there's still some value there.
9:00
UCF's a wild card. I mean, uh, they're, they're the most high variance team you can think of. They could be better than market, they could be much worse than market.
9:08
I sort of have them a little bit worse than market, um, but I still was good enough to, to bet them at minus 17 or, uh, last week when I released the play. But, uh, still some value on Central Florida.
9:18
If you wanna play it that way, you can lay 18 and a half. I would await for it to maybe... 18's a key number in college football, so if it got back down to 18, then certainly a play.
9:27
Uh, maybe a small play at more than 18. Okay. Uh, got two minutes for this one, Bob. Uh, Oregon, 10 and a half. Bo Nix ain't walking through that door, nor is Dillon Gabriel, but Dante Moore is.
9:39
What do you got here at 10 and a half on Oregon? Yeah, that's the problem. I mean, Dante Moore, former five-star recruit, um, hadn't really separated himself from the other quarterbacks on the roster.
9:49
I don't, I still don't know if he's been officially named the starter. It's been a battle. They wanted him to win the, win the, [laughs] win the, win the quarterback job, but he really hasn't. Not too surprising.
9:58
Moore got his chance and had over, as a freshman at UCLA a couple years ago, had over 213 pass attempts, completed just 53.5%.
10:07
I mean, I don't care if you're a freshman, there are tons of freshmen who come in and do a decent job. Mm-hmm. 53 and a half percent. And the thing is, Ethan Garbers was the backup.
10:14
He came in and completed 67% of his passes in the same offense. So Moore was terrible a few years ago at UCLA. He struggled to win the job this year, and there's a, a big difference between Nix and Gabriel.
10:27
Nix came in, in his, I think he was a fifth year, he was in his fifth year as a starter when he came to Oregon. Uh, had two great seasons. Dillon Gabriel was great as a freshman, great as a sophomore, went to Oklahoma.
10:37
He was great there. Came to Eugene, he was already established as a great quarterback.
10:42
Moore has done nothing, and they're pricing Oregon as if he's just gonna step in and be Gabriel or Nix, which I don't think's gonna be the case. I think the defense will be slightly worse than it was last year.
10:53
They, uh, they, only four of their top 19 tacklers are back.
10:56
They've plugged in some transfers, but I rate them a little bit worse than they were defensively, uh, last season, and, uh, I think the o- offense is gonna be much worse.
11:04
I just don't see Moore coming close, and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. I'm saying, "All right, maybe he'll complete 65% of his passes in this offense, from 53 and a half to 65." Still they would be much worse.
11:16
Those guys completed 72% or more each season the last three years. Uh, I just don't see that happening, so I... And they're being priced as if they're the same. So I like under 10 and a half, up to minus 230 on Oregon.
11:28
Yeah, 'cause there's an at Penn State, and if you chalk that up as an L, then you'd have to go undefeated the rest of the way, and that's- Yeah, which I don't think is gonna happen. Yeah. Indiana at Iowa. Yeah.
11:38
USC at Washington. I, I just don't see it. More with Dr. Bob on the other side. Couple more season win totals, a week one play, and then his top five rankings. We'll squeeze it all in next VSiN Numbers Game.
11:48
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12:46
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. College football is finally here, and the NFL's right around the corner.
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13:31
Bob Kelly and I having, uh, discussions on weight loss and all kinds of things on the other side. Simultaneously having, like, a text message conversation with Montesano about her. That's right.
13:40
It's just, it's no time for small talk, though. We got a lot to get to with, uh, Dr. Bob. Bob, thank you for joining us once again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Dr. Bob Sports.
13:49
How many years you been doing Dr. Bob Sports, Bob? 38. 38. Yeah. That's more, that's more than half your life, man. Yeah. 38 years. Wow. Yeah. Well... All right, let's, uh, no time to lose.
14:00
Uh, the other two season win total unders that you'd like to share are? Well, Buffalo under seven and a half, uh, wins.
14:09
Now, Buffalo was nine and four last season, and I do think they'll be better this season, but they're not gonna be nine and four. Last year's nine and four is about the phoniest nine and four I've ever seen.
14:18
They were outgained in the regular season, I didn't include their game against Liberty when Liberty had all their stars out of the game for the bowl game.
14:25
So in the, in the regular season, they were outgained by an average of 50 total yards per game and 5.3 to 5.7 yards per play.
14:31
So they were outgained, but they went eight and four in the regular season anyway, despite being outplayed from the line of scrimmage by at least five points. I have a line of scrimmage metric for each game.
14:42
They were outplayed b- from the line of scrimmage by at least five points in eight of the 13 games for the season, eight of their 12 regular season games.
14:48
They were more like a five and eight team than a nine and four team last season. Being plus nine in turnovers helped. But here's the thing, they were outgained by 0.4 yards per play in their regular season.
14:58
The teams they faced, the FBS teams that they faced last year, would get outgained by 1.6 yards per play by an average FBS team. They had one of the easiest schedules in the country last year.
15:11
A normal team would be outgained by 1.6 yards per play. They were outgained by 0.4 yards per play against those teams, so they were 2.0 yards per play worse than an average team.
15:21
One of the worst teams in the country, but they went nine and four.
15:25
So they are gonna be better this year, but they were terrible last year and somehow won nine games, and I think that's being overpriced into their win total. Uh, they look like a six and a half win team to me.
15:36
I predict 6.5 wins and recommend going under 7.5 at minus 125 or better. All right, and to round it out, you has a, you have another under 7.5 wins on UTSA. Yeah. Super pessimistic today.
15:47
Uh, UTSA under 7.5 wins up to minus 145. Overrated team. They were six and six in the regular season last year. They got a free bowl win against Coastal Carolina, whose all their key players skipped the game.
15:58
So excluding the bowl game and excluding their FCS, uh, win against Houston Christian, which is horrible, Roadrunners were outgained by, by 0.3 yards per play, 5.7 to 6.8 yards per play, uh, by teams that would get outgained by an average of 0.8 yards per play against an average FBS team.
16:15
So they were 1.1 yards per play worse than an average team, yet still people think they're good. They're not good. The biggest thing was they had a plus nine per play, a plus 9.0 play differential last year.
16:28
Play differentials tend to regress towards the mean. They're not gonna be plus 9.0 in play differential. Part of that was their defense allowing 31.2 on third down conversions.
16:38
They, other than that, in the last seven years, they've never been lower than 37.3% conversions on third down defense. So that's gonna regress back up.
16:47
Um, and play difference also will decrease because UTSA gave up a lot of big plays last year. That's not likely to happen.
16:52
Of course, not giving up big plays is gonna help their defense, even though they have just two starters returning. I do think the pass defense will be better, but the run defense is gonna be, not be as good.
17:00
Martavius French had 16 stuffed runs behind the line of scrimmage last year, most in the country. He's gone. Uh, their star Jamory Robinson's gone, 10 and a half sacks and six and a half other tackles for loss.
17:11
Their best defensive back, Zahvri Frazier, had 15 passes defended with six interceptions. He's gone. Like I said, two returning starters on defense, so overall they're not gonna be as good.
17:19
Defensively, should be a little bit better, uh, better than, better offensively, but they were an overrated team last year. I think they're an overrated team this year.
17:26
Uh, I predict 6.0 wins for UTSA, under 7.5 up to minus 145. Okay. Four-pack of unders. Bob betting against human achievement. Oregon under 10 and a half, um, up to m- what is it?
17:41
Up minus 200 or so is what it is right now. Still a good play. Yep. Yep. Bu- Buffalo under seven and a half. UTSA under seven and a half.
17:48
Jacksonville State under Six and a half, but that, that number is, uh, that number varies, but unders- Right... on Jacksonville State. Um, okay, let's throw in a week one play real quick here, a bonus play.
18:01
Uh, this one is up to six points, but you still like Utah State against UTEP, laying the wood? Yeah, I, I, I like this one a lot. Utah State I released at minus four. It went up to six.
18:10
It's still a best bet to me at minus six. If there were odds on Mountain West Conference Player of the Year, then Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes...
18:19
If you can find odds on Conference [laughs] Player of the Year in the Mountain West, then throw some money on Bryson Barnes as a nice long shot pick.
18:25
Uh, a decent passer, and this guy was recruited at, at Utah, and got thrown into the mix when, uh, when their quarterback got hurt. So he got, he played basically a full season as starter in 2023 at Utah.
18:36
Did okay considering the level of competition he was facing. And last year at Utah State, he averaged 6.2 yards per play. That's fine, but where he's very good is running the ball.
18:45
In his l- in his two starts at the end of last season when he took over at quarterback, he ran for 393 yards in the final two games of the season. And he's got 1,100 ground yards on 147 career runs, not including sacks.
19:00
Seven and a half yards per run play for Barnes. This guy is gonna go wild. He's gonna run the ball. They're gonna let him run. He's a decent passer. Like I said, he was, he was recruited by Utah and started for them.
19:11
So he is a capable passer. I think he's gonna improve in that area. So I think the offense is going to be very good. Defense is terrible. UTEP's defense is terrible.
19:19
Um, so I, I, I just think Utah State's got a much better offense, two bad defenses, and, uh, I like Utah State minus six or less, and even up to six and a half or a half unit if you're, if you're seeing six and a half.
19:31
Okay, let's get to the Dr. Bob preseason top five rankings in all of college football. Let's start with five, Bob. Uh, number five, I, I ended up with, uh, Georgia at five. I think they might be slightly overrated.
19:45
Uh, the offense should be okay. Uh, the, the pass game was a little bit down last season. I think Stomping, he got a little bit of experience last year.
19:53
I think they'll be about the same in the pass game, uh, this year, maybe slightly worse than running, but overall, pretty good offense. About the same as last year. I think the defense is gonna be better.
20:03
They had kind of a down year in pass defense last year. It was a little bit weird.
20:06
I think they've, they stockpiled some talent, so I have Georgia being better this year, but maybe slightly overrated compared to what the, what everybody else thinks. But I have them fifth. Okay. Number four.
20:15
I'm gonna guess Penn State. It is Penn State, and I'm below the market on Penn State because I don't trust Drew Allen. I mean, a couple years ago, he just did not throw the ball down the field.
20:27
I think it was something like less than 20% completions on throws of 15 yards or more, ARRs, it's just terrible.
20:34
And last year, he relied on his tight end, Tyler Warren, o- so much that the wide receivers were so frustrated being wide open all the time in this great offensive system, that they all transferred to Penn State.
20:48
[laughs] You know, knowing they have a national championship caliber team, those wide receivers transferred because they weren't getting the ball, 'cause he's afraid to throw it down the field.
20:57
Now, this offense, as good as it was last year with two great running backs, and, and, and they just have a great offensive coordinator is the thing. Uh,
21:06
Pepelnicky was just as good at Kansas the previous two years with lesser talent than he was last year at Penn State.
21:13
So Kansas had better offenses in the previous two years under the same offensive coordinator than Penn State had last year when he... So I'm just not a Drew Allen fan.
21:22
He needs to start throwing the ball down the field, and he can't, he can't rely on Tyler Warren to catch 104 passes this year- [laughs]... 'cause that guy's in the NFL. So I think Penn State's a little overrated.
21:31
All right. Three's always the most interesting one. I'm gonna guess it's an, it's an outlier per the market. What do you got? No, I, I, it's Alabama. I just, I... You know, he's, uh, he's got his, uh, he's got his...
21:42
The offense was really inconsistent last year. The defense wasn't up to normal standards for Alabama. But the, uh, offensive coordinator, uh, that was so successful, uh, for Deboer in Washington is back.
21:56
So, um, he's reunited with Ryan Grubb, who spent a year in the NFL, but he's back. So I think the offense is gonna be better, 'cause I like, you know, the offense coordinator more.
22:05
And the defense, eight returning starter- basically eight returning starters. They're not all returning. Some of them are, are, are transfers that they plugged in, but the talent level on defense is very, very good.
22:15
I think the defense will be better. Hmm. I think the offense will be better, so Alabama's better, but everybody knows that. All right. So I don't think there's any value there. One minute left, Bob.
22:23
They play each other Saturday, Texas and Ohio State. Ohio State a one and a half, two-point favorite. Who do you have one, who do you have two, and by what margin? I have Ohio State second. I'm just...
22:34
Uh, I think the passing game is a big question. Best wide receivers in the country, obviously. The, but they don't have an experienced quarterback this year.
22:41
And I remember a couple years ago when they did not have an experienced quarterback, the offense was not as potent. Um, so I think, uh, it could be some growing pains this year for, uh, Julian Sand.
22:53
Um, but obviously the defense was great. I don't think they're gonna be n- as dominant as they were last year.
22:59
They have just three returning starters, so the defense is still gonna be a very good defense, just not as good. I don't think the offense is gonna be as good. Ohio State takes a step back. Texas takes a step up.
23:09
I don't necessarily count on Arch Manning being that much better than Quinn Ewers throwing the ball. He could.
23:15
His metrics were a little bit better last season, but I think his running will help, and I think that the Texas defense will be a bit better. So I think Texas is the best team in the country.
23:24
Um, taking Texas versus Ohio State on Saturday, yes or no? No. Not, not quite enough value there. Okay. Home team in week one tend to do pretty good. Ooh, interesting. So a little technical analysis takes him off that.
23:36
Bob, thank you. Appreciate it. Dr. Bob, everybody, Fridays here on The Numbers Game. Thank you, Bob. VSiN, the sports betting network Think you're better than the experts? Prove it in the Edge Boost Average Joe Contest.
23:53
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24:12
Sign up now at vsin.com/joe. That's vsin.com/joe. Sorry, I didn't mean to distract you. I could, I couldn't see, I can't see that TV up here, though, so I had to look behind your head.
24:22
I don't know what's going on with... Is that Francisco? That is Francisco Cerundolo. First of all, Francisco, just a, just a great name, but I, I wanna know, I'm kind of laughing because I wanna know how you get the job.
24:32
You, you watch some of these sporting events, right? And then you wonder, like, "How do you get that job?"
24:36
Whoever the umbrella holder is for these guys on the, like, outside court, so they get a little shade when they sit down, that's a job.
24:43
Weren't you, weren't you the guy that w- was offering, when Jason Tatum's leg, w- were you like, "I'll happily..."
24:49
W- 'cause you had a bet on the Celtics, you're like, you would, you would go there and- Well, first of all, me and Wyatt Tomchek have brought up, if Giannis needs, e- ever needs those calves rubbed down or anything like that, we'll give a great massage, okay?
24:59
What just happened here? [laughs] By the way, Dr. Bob, just to follow up on the Dr. Bob segment, so he was basically, for those who missed it at the end there, so essentially in his...
25:07
I was asking him afterwards, so in his, his whole rankings for the season- Yeah... he's got Texas three points better than Ohio State, three, which is more than the g- you know, really the market reflects.
25:19
But in terms of this game, the way that Bob handicaps is, not only does he have his math model that led him to the three points better, generally speaking, but he also does technical analysis, which we often refer to as trends, and Bob has access to the Buckeye database, which not a lot of people have access to.
25:37
It goes way back, um, throughout football and, uh, pro football and college football.
25:41
But his college football numbers, which he has followed these sorts of things for years and years, 38 years, he just told us, sometimes that technical analysis, as he calls it, will take him off what his math model would otherwise project.
25:55
So in other words, if he has Texas rated three points better, you're like, "Oh, well he's obviously on Texas against Ohio State."
26:01
No, because there's some trend which, by the way, sometimes Bob will let you know and sometimes he won't let you know. Mm-hmm. Right?
26:07
Bob is famous for saying that there's a, you know, in these situations, this is the record. There is a subset which is even more dramatic, and those subsets he often doesn't share.
26:16
But that's essentially what he was getting at, which is he likes Texas a lot better than Ohio State, but there are week one trends that are taking him off the play.
26:24
Yeah, I mean, I'm, m- me, me not being the sharpest college football guy out there, Gil- Yeah...
26:28
but there is no way, a- any time anybody's asked me about that game this summer, I'm like, "It would be Ohio State or nothing."
26:33
Like, I, week o- week one, right away, go- going into Ohio State, that is a lot to ask, uh, of this Texas team to, to, to go do, pick up a win. Tyler Shoemaker is our next guest.
26:42
He, of course, is, uh, always seen at vsin.com with thoughts on college football, WNBA, and beyond. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @TShuIndex on Twitter. Tyler, how you doing?
26:54
You, do you have a play in Ohio State versus Texas on Saturday? I don't. I, I, I think I've, I've told you guys this before. I, I went to Ohio State, so I'm, you know, I'm, I'm very nervous for this game.
27:04
This is, this is a big game. I've, I was at the national championship game. Um, so I've got Ohio State minus three in that game. It's interesting listening to Dr.
27:12
Bob say that he had Texas rated three points ahead, you know, just in his ratings. I've actually got Ohio State one point better than Texas.
27:19
I only give them two points, um, of value for home field advantage, so it sounds like he's doing about three and a half points, almost four, of home field advantage there for Ohio State.
27:27
And I'll tell you, I've been in the Shu for big games many, many times, and I think it's probably one of the most overrated big stadium- Oh, wow. Wow... home, home atmospheres.
27:38
And, and I, I think a lot of Ohio State fans would agree with you. I think the tickets have gotten so expensive that you can't get the rabid, you know, younger crowd that, that can afford those tickets now.
27:46
So I think it's a lot of the wine and cheese crowd that go to these games a lot of times. A- and it's, they'll, they'll get the air sucked out of them real quick.
27:53
If, if Texas comes out and does anything early, that crowd's gonna be, gonna be very, very anxious. Uh, I, I've seen it happen.
27:58
I was at the Oregon game in 2021 when Ohio State lost, and it was like two Oregon drives in, and it was like that crowd was out of the game. Did not expect that review of the Horseshoe crowd. That, that was good. Yeah.
28:09
Tyler, uh, famous for dunking over Greg Oden once. Did you know that, Gil? Did not know that. Did not know that. That's, that's not true. [laughs] Did not know that.
28:17
I'm just gonna start making up things about our guests. What do you s- what do you suppose a guy like Greg Oden is doing on a day like this? My friend Tommy will ask questions. What do you suppose a guy like Greg Oden...
28:25
Uh, all right, Tyler, where did you land college football-wise, week one, bet-wise? Yeah, I, so I, I wrote this up on vsin.com, uh, this week. I, I'll take Michigan State against Western Michigan.
28:36
I would play that anywhere up to 21. The line, uh, was at 17 at one point over the summer. I grabbed it. I know it's been 19, 20 here this week.
28:44
I would take anything 21 or better with, with the Spartans against Western Michigan. Uh, and then one, uh, we got a week night neutral site game, um, Cincinnati plus seven against Nebraska.
28:54
I think, it sounds to me like everyone in the world is on Nebraska here. My numbers have been lower on Nebraska.
29:00
You know, I bet their season win total under seven and a half, which, uh, Tim Murray and I disagreed on, uh, which we talked about on the, on the VSiN College Football Pod.
29:07
But yeah, I'm on Cincinnati plus seven, uh, against Nebraska, seven or better, and Michigan State minus 21 or better are two of the, two of the bets that I made that really stick out to me. Okay.
29:16
Uh, let's switch to the W, WNBA. Uh, before we get to some picks that you have here, where do we stand in terms of futures here to win it all? Where, what's the tiers of teams right now?
29:31
Oh, that's, that's a good question. Um, I think- Based on, based on your analysis, of course, yes... so, yeah, I mean, I think, I think the Atlanta Dream are, are surging.
29:39
I know we've talked about them a couple times here throughout the season as kind of, you know, one of the, the dark horse teams.
29:45
I think they're better than the rest of the teams not named Minnesota or New York, and we've even seen the Aces here lately really catch fire. I think they've won 11 straight now.
29:55
So, you know, the Aces catching fire at the right time. They certainly have the talent ceiling that could, you know, make them a threat.
30:02
Uh, so I, I think you've got the Lynx and the Liberty clearly at the top, and then I would put the Dream and the Aces, if they're gonna play like they have been and not like they've played all season, in the next tier, and then probably just everybody else after that.
30:16
I had high hopes for the Mercury and the Storm, but they've been really inconsistent here the second half of the season. Uh, so I'm kinda out on both of those teams at this point.
30:24
And for the uninitiated, Napheesa Collier, Phe, by the way, Kelly, the kids call her. Mm, yes. Uh, she's back. Um, but is Breanna S- when is Breanna Stewart supposed to come back for the Liberty?
30:35
She, she played, uh, Monday night on a minutes restriction, so she's easing, easing back into it. Easing in.
30:41
So, uh, yeah, so I, you know, like I t- like I told Kelly before the show here, I think if you are interested in taking a future on New York, do it now or never because that number's only gonna shorten as Breanna Stewart starts to ramp up and the, the Liberty get back to what we know them to be.
30:55
Okay. I was waiting on that. Fired last night, uh, on the Liberty plus 240. Shop around 'cause they, uh, some books you can tell are already adjusting. I saw a plus 240 at Caesars and a plus 170 at MGM.
31:06
Kelly Bidlin, Yankees v- volume Yankees better, volume Liberty better. Big New York guy. Big New York guy. Big New York guy. Uh, Tyler, what did you- The Big Peach... what, [laughs] yeah. What'd I call you yesterday?
31:16
Big Watermelon. [laughs] Big Watermelon you called him. I'm like, I don't think that's true. Uh, what did you land on in the WNBA tonight?
31:23
Yeah, tonight I'm on the Sparks plus four as well as that same game, Sparks Mercury under, uh, 178 and a half. I think that total has dropped a point or so. I would play it down to, like, 176 and a half.
31:36
Uh, s- I like the under there, and I would play the Sparks to about plus three here.
31:43
Um, you know, the season, this is hard because the season-long numbers do favor the Mercury, but obviously the Sparks played without Cameron Brink for majority of this season.
31:52
But since she's been back, looking at their last five games, I would actually make the Mercury about a two-point favorite here. So I like, uh, I like the Sparks plus the points here.
32:00
Never seen Cameron Brink and Storm Bonetoni in the same place, same time. Never seen it. That's a fact. Yeah. [laughs] Um, okay, and let me just ask you about the Aces.
32:09
Uh, obviously the, you know, a, a month ago we're sitting here and I'm like, "What, what happened to them? Does Kelsey Plum mean that much? I know A'ja Wilson's not playing as well." Um, and then they go on this tear.
32:20
Are you buying them as a serious contender? I'm getting the feeling you're not. They're, they're just really hard to, to gauge because they've, they've played so poorly. So their season-long rating for me is 1.1,
32:36
but over the last five games they've been seven points better than that.
32:39
[laughs] So it's like, okay, if you're gonna tell me that the seven point better version's gonna show up all the, all playoffs, you know, I, I could be, uh, persuaded that they're, that they're gonna make a run.
32:48
But, you know, we've got a pretty big sample of them being barely above an average team, so I'm curious if they're gonna regress back to their mean or if it just took them a little longer than expected to get going, you know, trying to i- implement Jewell Lloyd in- into the lineup instead of Kelsey Plum.
33:04
Hmm. Okay. Um- I mean, is this the, uh, Tyler, is this a Lynx, is this, are we headed right for Lynx Liberty, though? Are really any of these teams really in consideration? A, a collision course, if you will. Yeah.
33:15
I would say I would be surprised if, if that's not the case. I, beating either of those teams in a series seems like just m- un- very unlikely. So I, yeah, I, I think we're probably headed for Lynx Liberty round two.
33:29
Okay. Uh, and then in college football, back to college football for a second, do you have any futures play in college football? Did you make any for the title or- Um, let's see... or in any regard? I did not.
33:39
I, I only, the only futures I played in college football were some win totals. Uh, and I think I gave those out the last time. Yeah.
33:45
A couple that stick out were Southern Miss over five and a half, Nebraska under seven and a half were two that, that jump out to me. All right.
33:52
Tyler Shoemaker, Ohio State alum, besmirching the Horseshoe crowd for this Saturday. Never dunked on Greg Oden. Never dunked on Greg Oden. We, we- Did, did not dunk on Greg Oden, for the record...
34:01
who, who's the tallest player you ever dunked on? Who's your, who's your big dunk-on pride? Uh, the best made dunk was probably on one of my 6'3" high school teammates, uh, when we were playing pickup.
34:12
[laughs] But I tried in V- uh, it was actually in Vegas in a, in an AU tournament in high school. I tried to dunk on a 6'8" guy and backrimmed it. [laughs] Nice job, Tyler. All right.
34:23
Tyler Shoemaker, everybody, @TShoeIndex. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Thank you, guys. See ya. Kelly and I will come back. We'll recap all the bets on today's show.
34:31
It's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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35:04
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And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
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35:45
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Iga Swiatek double parked outside. 27 and one career in first rounds of majors. Is that good? Who'd she lose to? Do you know the one? Oh, no, it was way back.
36:01
It was before she even won the French. Yeah. Uh, um, she beats, uh, Emilio- Emilia Arango, 6-1, 6-2, I believe it was, or 6-2, 6-1, don't hold me to that. Iga on to the second round.
36:13
Uh, well let's recap all the bets on the, uh, show today, uh, courtesy of G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
36:18
I had four tennis plays, one of which is underway and m- I wanna pronounce it correctly, Martin Fucsovics, I believe you said it was? Yeah. Uh, plus 108 versus Denis Shapovalov. Um- You got it...
36:31
our guy, Fucsovics, is down a set, down a set, but they are on serve in the second, deep into the set right now, so we'll see if he can, uh, even things out here against Shapovalov.
36:43
The other three that have yet to start later this morning, on the ladies' side, two of 'em, Elena Vesnina, plus 142 versus Anastasia Zakharova, and then Laura Siegemund, plus 230.
36:54
She's the big dog today against Diana Shnaider. Men's side, big dog as well, Tristan Schoolkate, plus 206 versus Lorenzo Sonego. Sure. Sort of gave my explanations earlier on those.
37:05
But- Iga's only first round loss in a Grand Slam in 2019 Wimbledon, Victoria Gu- Gulbik? Gollub- yeah, Golubic. Yeah, she, that was before, uh, Iga started her, uh, her run, if you will.
37:19
So that's a lot of, a lot of first round wins in a row then. That's true. If we go back to 2019. Yeah. Yep, yep, yep. And that is why, right, that is why she is, again, the data has never dropped.
37:30
She's always been the greatest. Uh, Iga to win the US Open plus 352, Iga to win her half minus 105. Kelly Bittling got on that at a better price than I did. And then, uh, Karolina Muchova to win her quarter at 14 to one.
37:45
Uh, you got her to win the US Open plus 240, but to reach the final plus 125. Yeah. Good on you. I bet that pretty pre- [laughs] I went back twice.
37:53
I bet it, then I went back, 'cause I we- I bet it, shopping around, I'm like, "Man, this is pretty off," and I know, know Gil had about minus 105. Yeah.
38:01
And I, I didn't bet to wi- to win at, at nearly as much, plus 240, obviously that numbered down from what we saw, uh, pre-tournament.
38:08
Man, I'll tell you though, Gil, I lo- I love having the US Open going all day, but it's tough to get some futures bets in sometimes. [laughs] You gotta wait till late at night or early in the morning- Yeah...
38:16
you know, to get, get in on these. So added those. I'm in with you on Iga for US Open, let's go. Uh, and then talked a little bit about last segment, with Liberty plus 240. Uh, hit that a couple times this morning.
38:26
Uh, it's Stewart coming back for them. Liberty finally have that full lineup together. Excited to see what they can do going forward. Did you see, uh, Muchova won her first round match against Venus yesterday?
38:35
But Venus got a set off her. I do. I, I watched most of that, yeah. 45-year-old Venus Williams getting a set off one of the top 15 players in the world.
38:43
This is gonna sound bad, but did you ever feel like it was really in jeopardy? No. Yeah. No. Me either. Mark Borchardt, uh, was on, it feels like it was, uh, half a day ago. [laughs] Yeah, for real.
38:52
Brew- Brewers, Astros, money line parlay at plus 109, Major League Baseball, and the Reds on the run line, Reds plus one and a half at minus 130. A parlay and a straight from Mark Borchardt.
39:02
Drew Dinsick, Ajla Tomljanovic plus one and a half sets today against Coco, so he is betting that Tomljanovic gets a set off Coco. Uh, that's a plus 210 price. And then Marin Cilic plus 180 today.
39:17
I leaned Cilic against Bublic. I couldn't pull the trigger, but Drew did. Cilic plus 180, a former US Open champ. Well, you're always a US Ch- Open champ. You're not former. Once you win it, you win it. Dr.
39:28
Bob, four season win total unders that are still available to you in college football. Jacksonville State, he's going back to the well. Under five and a half wins on Jacksonville State. Oregon, under 10 and a half wins.
39:39
I agree with that one. Again, you look at that schedule- Thank you... y- look at that schedule, you're like, "How'd they win 11?"
39:44
Yeah, I think that made a lot of sense, too, with the quarterback, uh, talk that Bob had- Yeah... about that. And then Buffalo and UTSA both under seven and a half wins.
39:51
He is on Utah State this weekend against UTEP, laying the six points. He still thinks that that's a bet. And then Tyler Shoemaker moments ago, a couple college football places on Michigan State.
40:02
Spartans laying 20 and a half. He's on the Bearcats of Cincinnati, plus seven. And then the WNBA tonight, uh, two plays in one game.
40:12
Sparks plus the points, plus four, and the Sparks Mercury under 177 and a half from Tyler today. I, might be joining him on that Sparks side. That team is, uh, that team's healthy, too, man.
40:23
Some of these te- teams getting healthy at the right time. Are you a big, uh, WNBA viewer? I mean, like, yeah, no, but, like, I, I always tell myself, uh, it's something I should probably be betting, right?
40:33
Like, so much- To-... of the basketball is, take carries over... Todd, Todd Wishnev all over it. Yeah. It, it, it- All over it... it's the, I get into it, but it's like, it's right, it's this time of year, right?
40:43
And then football starts, and okay, sorry. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, all of our best bets brought to you by G Bank. G Bank built with sports bettors in mind.
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41:19
I, I'm glad you bring up, uh, the WNBA stuff real quick, though, 'cause that is, I, it, you know, pe- people out there listening, watching, if you've got great data sites for the WNBA, send 'em my way.
41:29
I just don't really have as many that I have for the NBA, like Cleaning the Glass, where I can kinda just deep dive on possession stats- Yeah... and stuff like that.
41:36
But I, I'll, you would think if you're handicapped one professional basketball league, you know, another professional basketball league, a lot of that should translate over, so it's just not, not anything I've ever gotten into that deep Uh, saw this when I was on, uh, in New York City on vacation.
41:50
I learned of this because someone texted it to me, and then I also saw it on Twitter, 'cause, uh, someone put it in my feed with a reply. Uh, Mike Palm was on with Stormy, uh, last week talking about Fezzik,
42:02
and he was going off on Fezzik. Fezzik, who- Steve Fezzik, back-to-back winner Hilton Super Contest, who's on Numbers Game on Friday. And, uh,
42:11
Mike was very dramatic about, or he was very passionate about what he's saying, is Steve Fezzik is wro- he's wrong about so many things, and you can't tell him he's wrong, was Mike's words.
42:20
I'll let Fezzik address this on Friday when he's on.
42:23
But it was, it was, and then, and then it was, it, it then it spread on Twitter, and I was just, uh, a- as I'm watching it, right, as I'm watching the, the Twitter drama happen, and people think they're burning, like, Fezzik and stuff, if you had watched the show, they were talking about Survivor, right?
42:37
What, what Mike was talking about was he was wrong about all of his, uh, Survivor strategy proclamations and all that.
42:43
And I was gonna say, if you'd listened to the segment [laughs] with me and Fezzik, I very calmly said to Steve's fa- uh, the, the theory with Steve is that if the Thursday night football game between the, uh, the Eagles and the Cowboys.
42:55
That's a Thursday night game? Yeah. Just to open the season. And what he was saying is that, um, the, the number of Survivor entries will spike hugely, um, if, oh, let me get this right. I always get it wrong.
43:10
If the Cowboys win, is that correct, if I'm gonna? That it will spike, that, that it will spike hugely that way because, you know, then it will be a, uh, a plus EV situation.
43:20
And what I said to him straight to his face when he was on the show, I go, "So it's like a locals discount because, you know, local people will be able to buy back in." And he goes, "Yeah, exactly."
43:28
Um, and then I said, "Yeah," but I said, "Steve, you know, it's probably not gonna be as dramatic as you think it is 'cause not as many people as you think will pick, will pick the Eagles because they're a Thanksgiving," quote-unquote.
43:36
Mm-hmm. It's really a Black Friday team, but in that Thanksgiving quirk. So very calmly to Steve, and by the way, you know what Fezzik did? He agreed with both of us.
43:43
So Mike Palm was going on, on the other show, and he was, he was killing Fezzik for stuff that we very calmly [laughs] just, just talked about.
43:51
And so I don't know why Mike didn't address, uh, address Steve directly on that. But Mike also said that Steve made the, the bold claim that the, uh, the millions number would go all the way to 25 million.
44:02
Wow, uh, I never heard Steve say that. He didn't say it on this show, so I don't know where, I don't know if Mike is making that up or not, but Steve never said that on our show.
44:11
But anyway, um, uh, I just, I'm just amused about how Twitter things spiral, uh, when it's, it shouldn't spiral. It's just literally- It's wild...
44:20
a conversation, and Steve was completely in agreement with w- what I was saying on it. Twitter is a crazy place, kids. Kids, don't always, uh, buy into the, the rage that you see on that.
44:32
Uh, so what bets have you made week one, then? National Football League. Week one, I am in on the 49ers money line. Uh, that is one that I bet. A fade of the Seahawks more than a backing of the Niners from Kelly Billing?
44:45
F- uh, fair to say. I-i- Yeah. Yeah, yes. Yeah, that, that is fair to say. Um, I am Cardinals laying four and a half, bet that earlier. That, man, that is basically six and a half everywhere now.
44:56
We've even pa- jumped to six most places on that game, uh, against the Saints in New Orleans. And then, uh, Bucs money line I added over the weekend. Sounds like me and you might be oppo on week one.
45:06
Um, I think my five play, my five contest plays, once again, week one. You ready for this? Five contest plays- Yep... and I will have a bet on all five of these. Uh,
45:16
it's going to be, 'cause I, I do have, uh, the, the fifth I think I'm convinced is I'm gonna be on Baltimore. Sorry, you Josh Allen lover, you. Um, but I'm gonna go Baltimore with one of my plays.
45:28
Uh, Atlanta, number two. The Steelers, number three. Now I'm, now I'm forgetting what the other two are on this. I'm gonna be on, I, I, it was, uh, Atlanta, Steelers. What was the, what was the fourth and fifth now?
45:45
I'm already forgetting, and I had them written down, and now I got erased somehow. Um- Hmm... but those are g- those are gonna be contest plays, and I'll have bets, uh, I'll have bets backing them up.
45:54
Oh, the others, right here. Sorry. T- I'm gonna take Denver laying the wood against Tennessee, and I'm gonna be with you on San Francisco. San Francisco minus two and a half at Seattle.
46:03
Assuming those numbers will be there- Right, yeah. Who knows?... next Wednesday. We don't know what- Yeah, who knows... the static numbers will be by then, 'cause that's a full eight days away.
46:10
Uh, Crack on Thursday, Bob, Fezzik, and Felika on Fridays all football season long. Guessing Lines on Monday, uh, on Mondays, and of course the Megapod Thursdays after the show beginning next week from the win.
46:25
Enjoy Prop Points with John Hanson next right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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46:58
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