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Aug 26, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
46:04
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. Any way you take us in, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin- Hello... in the house.
0:23
Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? I'm, I'm well. Good. Good, good, good. How many people say that? I'm well. I'm well. Yeah. Doing well. Answer it sincerely.
0:33
They like give it a pause of real thought, and they're like, "Huh, you know, I'm well." [laughs] I just leave that as just the quick answer. I have a idea.
0:39
You know what one of my go-tos is in emails and text messages- Uh-huh... and any of our guests out there that are listening right now, uh, know exactly what I'm talking about.
0:47
"Hey, Pete," Pete Fewsmith, "Hey, Pete, it's been a while. Hope all is well." Yeah. [laughs] Hope all is well, a line that I always include. Hope all is well, don't really want you to answer it.
0:56
[laughs] Du- never say it in real life, in actual conversation- Yeah... but I put it in texts and emails.
1:01
Will Hill on the show this hour, couple segments with Will, all his bets, football, college, pro, baseball, anything he's got going. Paul Spohrer, speaking of baseball, sorry about your Tigers, Paulie.
1:12
Um, sorry for August, sorry for the rest of the year. Feels that way. Tigers get off the schneid yesterday, though. Nick Whalen, NFL and fantasy football.
1:21
Danny Higgins, in his final week, getting to, uh, submit some fantasy football questions in his- Mm-hmm... in his final days here on the show. Mm-hmm. We gotta give him that.
1:31
Mayb- maybe just copy and paste it over from yesterday, the ones we didn't get to, but yeah. Still from Danny Higgins, though. Still from Danny.
1:36
[laughs] So what you're saying is I shunned the Danny Higgins questions yesterday, but I am getting to them today. Yeah, but I feel like we're giving him too much credit today now.
1:44
Toddy Wishnev will join us, talk, uh, I don't know, maybe, it says NFL and M- MLB, but I don't know what he wants to talk about. Maybe WNBA. I'm gonna go with a little W. Yeah. Yeah, a little W, little MLB for sure.
1:53
Maybe he's got some football. The star of the Megapod, star of the Showtime docuseries Action, and how about some Ryan Noonan on the show today? Oh, here's a hope you're, hope all is well. "Hey, Ryan, hope all is well.
2:04
Just checking in. Wanna see if you come on the show." N- Noonan. Ryan- Noonan does some very interesting defensive prop betting stuff- Ooh, yeah-... throughout the season...
2:13
we'll, we'll, we'll look at most sacks with him? We'll do a little bit of that. I know he's got a lot of Defensive Rookie of the Year, like, kinda long shots- Ooh... that he's looking at. All right.
2:21
But I, I kinda wanna get into him with the, what, just what he does with tackle, like, uh, handicapping tackles and sack props on a weekly basis, 'cause he does very well with it, and I don't know many people that bet those markets.
2:31
Oh, we may not get to golf with him then. We gotta get into that. Yeah. [laughs] And, and golf. Okay. Yeah. Well, let's put golf on the back burner with him. Mm-hmm. But Kelly, Kelly does have some golf, uh- Yep...
2:39
to talk about today. We'll do some country clubbing. Uh, let's start with the, uh, the two little benchmarks we do here in the dead of summer, which is our, uh, monthly most wins. This got tight all of a sudden.
2:50
Gold member, you're looking tight. It's going. This, uh, this looked like it was- Totally... a Phillies versus Padres mano a mano down the stretch.
2:56
No more, because look who the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear is. Incredible. The Boston Red Sox, one win back. Philly still in the lead at 16 and seven. Remember, this is most wins.
3:08
Red Sox 15 and eight, Padres 15 and eight. Padres lose a second consecutive extra inning game, right? Last night? Maybe. It was that one in extras last night again? Yeah. Not the team you would expect that to happen to.
3:18
Cubs and Rays, couple wins back. Your Cubs, Kelly. That's right. Um, the reason that we put the run differential up there is because if you bet these at Circa, there are tiebreakers, right?
3:27
William Hill Caesars remembers dead heat. If teams tie at the end with the most wins, uh, Circa, the two tiebreakers are fewest losses if you end up with the same amount of wins, followed by best run differential.
3:39
So right now the Red Sox in the driver's seat on run differential at plus 50. Now, I went back, 'cause the Red Sox here are knocking at the door.
3:48
I went back all the way to 2024 when we started this, March, April 2024- Uh-huh... to see if we have ever had a consecutive monthly winner. Now, I cannot vouch for the...
4:00
Remember, in, at the beginning, it's a little fakakta- Yeah, yeah... with March-April and April, so I cannot vouch for whether there was an April and a May, but I can tell you there's never been a March-April and a May.
4:11
So if you use the March, April, and May standard, there has never been a back-to-back. 2024, 2025, and this much of 2026, for the length of time that we've been doing this.
4:21
So the Red Sox are trying to be the first to do that. Current odds, Phillies are plus 120, Sox two and one. Joe Butch over the monster. Padres are four to one. Everybody else double digits, starting with the Rays.
4:36
The, uh- C- Cubbies are 35 to one, dude. I know. Yeah. Okay, couple questions for you- Yeah... real quick. The, uh, did you happen to look up, that's an intr- I'm glad you went to b- go back and look at that. Yeah.
4:48
Did you happen to look up what best combined, like, records were over two months? I did not. 'Cause that's got... I mean, Red Sox have to have that right now, right? Oh, when you have a 21 and four in the bank- Right...
4:59
you're prob- 36 and 12 right now. It's incredible. They got- July, August for the Red Sox...
5:05
saw this note from ESPN, gone from, what, 14 games under 500 to 14 games over 500 in 62 days, the second shortest such turnaround in MLB history. That's real. They'll always have a place in our heart here on this show.
5:19
That is wild. The, uh- They'll always have a place in our heart... the other, the other one I caught, uh, yeah, you brought up that, that extra innings outing last night. Do you know, you know who that was?
5:27
That was an O'Neal Cruz home run. Yeah, rocket. Mason Miller's first home run allowed in over a year. Yep. Hoo. That guy's good. Remember when we were tracking Mason Miller stats- Yeah. [laughs]...
5:37
for the first run home? Oh, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. It's just the, Miz- Mizejewski made a joke of, of NL Cy.
5:43
Um, not that, not that Mason Miller was definitely gonna win it without him, 'cause even Sanchez had a great year, Sale had a great year. There was tons in the National League. And Skenes maybe doesn't suck again.
5:51
Skenes may w- Skenes with his best outing last night in what he described a while. Mm-hmm. And that is for sure the case with him. How about Cal Raleigh homering in four straight- Yeah... at bats? That's pretty cool too.
6:02
Welcome, Cal Raleigh, to the 2026 season. [laughs] The season has begun. Mariners all of a sudden like, "Hey, we can do this." Yeah. Uh, tennis was not good yesterday. W- we had five plays. We're two and three.
6:12
That doesn't sound that bad, but remember, this is the s- this is a really weird week, and I probably, you know what I- I really should probably take this week off, this Winston-Salem- Yeah, yeah...
6:22
Men's Monterrey, Mexi- I, I don't know. I, I really should because I know it's weird because my numbers are coming out on the favorites side randomly this week.
6:30
Is it's just a weird ma- weird players playing in these tournaments, and I probably... Yesterday was two and three. We could've been three and two. We should've been perhaps.
6:39
Kontinen, Lys, who we had 50 cents of CLV on, was two sh- two s- points away from winning in straight sets, 5-3 in the second set tiebreaker. He gagged it.
6:48
So that turned what would've been a winning day into a losing day. And there you go. When you...
6:53
And two and three doesn't sound bad when you- when we're typically betting our dogs, but when we're betting favorites, not such a good day, uh, 'cause you lose more than a unit, close to two. Um, Ignacio Burzaco today.
7:04
Today we have three, by the way, so I'm ratcheting it down. They're all on the men's side, and they're all favorites. Ignacio Burzaco, uh, minus 120 versus Daniel Altmaier.
7:12
Sebastian Baez minus 148 versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo, two guys known as clay court players, but, uh, actually their hard court numbers have improved through time. But- Picking on the bad Cerundolo. Yes, correct.
7:25
And then Botic van de Zandschulp- Nice... minus 147 versus Luciano Darderi. So Burzaco, Baez, van de Zandschulp. One of those names is not like the others. Does anybody call him, like, the BVZ?
7:38
I, I really don't believe they do. Or would that be the BVDZ? No, it would- I think it would just be the BVZ, right? I think it would be the BVdz. [laughs] Dz. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
7:48
Which is actually kinda cool. That's what it should be. BVdz. I kinda like that. Is who we're, we're playing. You gotta get that started. Yeah.
7:54
So hopefully, uh, a better day today after the two and three yesterday, which again, is not a disaster, but with favorites, not so hot.
8:00
Um, a couple things here before we move on in the show, which is, uh, I don't know how to put this. We have a couple stories where we leave at- Mm-hmm...
8:09
10:00 AM Eastern, and by the t- uh, 10:00 AM Pacific, pardon me, and by the time we get back at 7:00 AM Pacific the next day, the story has come and gone, but they're worth bringing up.
8:19
One of them is the college football story, which you could sort of tell, Kelly, when I, when I slow play certain stories on this show, like I will make some off-air editorial decisions of this college football story with the five for five and the players being e- eligible and stuff, I delayed that all the way till Daquan Wright last week.
8:38
I know other people were talking about it. I'm just like, 'cause one, there's not a d- usually when I do that, when I usually omit, it's because there's not a direct line to betting. That's really the first thing.
8:46
Right, right, yeah. Yeah, yeah. And I'll just be like, "Uh, is this really a betting thing?"
8:49
And we talked with Montesano a little bit off-air about how with pa- basketball it might, you could kinda figure out maybe it is a betting story if certain guys come back with eligibility. Um, but anyway,
9:00
maybe I should've waited three more days 'cause now the story is basically- I was g- I- It's over. I was gonna say, I thought I was gonna finish your thought for you of like- No...
9:05
but there, there's also the sometimes we decide not to launch into things 'cause you know the story's not done with.
9:10
Well, that's, that's the thing, and so yesterday it's, uh, they kind of, it kinda proved our instinct, which is the SEC now has joined the Big Ten in its unanimous opposition to athletes leaving the NFL and returning to college teams,
9:23
swiftly passing a new conference rule that gives Commissioner Greg Sankey full authority to enforce it, quote, "with penalties."
9:28
They actually went a step further than the Big Ten, prohibiting anyone who's previously declared for pro basketball, men's or women's, um, from rejoining college athletics without appropriately withdrawing.
9:39
So basically, cooler heads prevail. I mean, let's again, one sentence, college sports should be for college people, right? And so it looks like, and Notre Dame is expected to do the same thing here.
9:51
The ACC's expected to do the same thing. The Big 12 is expected to do the same thing.
9:55
The interesting part of, I will say this in closing, so as it appears that this, it appears that w- this weird little hybrid thing is gonna go away, but the interesting part about the, uh, [laughs]
10:08
the one article, and I am secret- even though I agree with all this completely, amateur athletic, you know, like we still have NIL. We still have... I mean, it's still a different sport than it ever was.
10:17
We don't need- Right... this extra layer on top of it where guys suit up for the Cleveland Browns on Saturday and then play for LSU. Um, the one part, the one w- paragraph in the article, though, that amused me so
10:29
was, uh, this from ESPN. "It's unclear if LSU football coach Lane Kiffin and men's basketball coach Will Wade will continue to pursue these players- Right...
10:38
in violation of the new conference rules, if they will let the courts decide, [laughs] or if they will part ways- Okay... in compliance with the conference."
10:45
I am actively rooting for this to happen, even though I completely agree with the conferences. Uh, one, me too. Yes.
10:51
Two, I mean, maybe I should have s- we should have seen a shot on, but, like, I think they're going to win, and there's Lane Kiffin again on TV talking about it, although that's from yesterday. Um- Imagine being...
11:01
Uh, by the way, I don't blame Lane Kiffin. No, no. Like, that's his job. No, this is the, the- Although if you were hired by a new school, like, would you have the onions to do that? Absolutely. Yeah.
11:09
'Cause he probably, he probably went and talked to whoever are his bosses and said, "You're gonna give me this war chest of NIL money. This is what I plan to do with it, which is now legal because of the state."
11:23
And they probably approved it, and Lane Kiffin's gonna fight this to the end. Against his own school, against his own conference. And, like, I, I... He found a loophole. He's exploiting the loophole.
11:32
They're now trying to close that loophole. Like I said, I don't blame him because ultimately he's gonna be judged on wins and losses, right? I don't blame him at all. Yeah. Yeah. What, what a, what a draw.
11:40
The other one, by the way, is Jahmar Chase. It looked like it was a terrible injury. Now he's, we're gonna be okay. He's fine. He's fine. That game away yesterday too. Coming back, numbers game.
11:49
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11:57
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12:05
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12:25
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12:32
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12:40
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12:49
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13:00
Dan- Danny Higgins telling us that, uh, Lenore Sellers at South Carolina, you know his, uh, what his, uh, academic slate is this week, what his curriculum is this week, this, um, semester. So, so big time challenge, huh?
13:11
Yeah. He is a, uh, intern at a golf range. Man, how do you, uh... I thought, like, cart guy at the driving range was, like, lowest level you started. How do you be an intern at a driving range? That- [laughs]...
13:23
that's something. Said driving range, right? Not golf course, driving range. A golf course would be a little different. Uh, Shrek McFeet, "Does your little buddy Owen have any eligibility left? Get him to LSU."
13:34
Oh, that's a great idea. The first tweet I sent out, uh- You know what? I'm gonna text him that today... was it Mond- Monday or Tuesday when Trey Benson got, uh, uh, waived or cut or whatever by the Cardinals?
13:43
I was like, "Florida State, give him a call." O doesn't have any eligibility left, but if he did, that would be, like, a, a dude that's been on, like, multiple NFC, uh, NFL practice squads for, like, five years. Mm-hmm.
13:56
Who's just a man amongst boys, just go back to school and crush. I may not have been great in college, but I tell you what, I've been in this league for five years. Watch this.
14:05
I think the one part of this conversation that, like, nobody...
14:07
Like, I haven't heard bro- uh, brought up by that many people, 'cause I just don't think it makes that much sense anymore, but, like, the, w- you know, 30 years ago we would've been, we would've been freaking out more about the, "You can't have grown men playing football against teenagers," but, like, I don't...
14:22
Everybody playing in the SEC and Big Ten these days are just basically grown men, so. Well, that's why I bring up the, the Sellers thing too. I was like, "Well, it's all ridiculous." Yeah, yeah. Uh, Spence, Bet a Nickel.
14:31
Thank you, Spence, for noticing, 'cause Kelly and Danny didn't. "No better tribute to Danny than having Noonan on the show pouring out a Fresca for him. Good luck." [laughs] How about a Fresca?
14:41
[laughs] I did not- Noonan... I did not notice it until you mentioned it a little bit. Noonan. That's why I keep saying it. Duck Fan for Life, "Gil, do you..." Oh, this is a great point, Duck Fan.
14:48
Says, "Gil, do you think some of these better players in tennis are simply cashing their appearance fees this week and then half-assing their efforts so they can move on to the US Open prep?
14:57
Betting favorites makes me very nervous this week." I don't, I don't disagree necessarily. I'm just doing stuff by my numbers, uh, as per us'. But, uh, that's why I bring up some, some concerns as well.
15:09
I totally understand your concern as well, too. 'Cause you never know who... It, yesterday also, just the way that they were played seems a little off, right?
15:17
At least two points away and then he, he gaks those and they just complete collapse, which you don't really see on the men's side. Then we had Hijikata, who ended up winning.
15:25
He was two points away from winning, looked like he was gonna gak it. Neither player could hold their serve, which in men's tennis- Yeah... is not a thing. Yeah. And so it was just a, a, you're right.
15:35
A lot is off this week, and, uh, we're ratcheting down to three today. We'll see if, how that goes, and we'll see if we even do any prior to the Open. The draw is on Thursday. The draw is tomorrow.
15:46
Our podcast, Drew Dintz, Zach Cohen, and I, Drew and I will be at the Wynn, uh, broadcasting live on Twitter, but we will have it up in podcast form for the US Open post draw on Friday.
15:58
And Tim Bauer is talking about our, uh, "Rock the Casbah" lyrical, uh, mess-up, or mine anyway. Again, 44 years I thought it was Charlene don't like it. Apparently it's not Charlene, it's Sharif.
16:11
Tim Bauer says, "Song lyric I've heard wrong all my life, Seal, 'Kiss from a Rose.'" I just learned yesterday it was, uh, kiss from a rose on the gray, not grave. ♪ Kiss from a rose on the gray.
16:25
♪ I didn't know what that word was. This is a great, and this is another great example. I have no idea. This is also what I brought up yesterday, though.
16:31
Like, I, you c- y- if people tweeted it and they could tweet it, they could tweet it 900 different examples of this that I wouldn't know either. Well, I'm not a ly- I've heard that song a million times.
16:40
I'm not a- I didn't know that. Well, I'm not a lyrics person, so I wouldn't know if that was gray or grave. Yeah. But I'm just talking about "Rock the Casbah," I swore it was Charlene.
16:49
And everybody we've asked, Joe Peta, Chris Andrews, all, uh, everyone I've asked has gotten it wrong with the same kind of conviction. It's only our listeners who are, who [laughs] were all convinced it was Sharif.
16:59
Smartest listeners ever. Oh, man. Um, MLB to reach the ALCS and the NLCS. So this is not to get, n- not to win the pennant, but to get to the AL Championship Series. Yeah. The best of seven.
17:12
Remember, it's best of three, best of five, best of seven. So again, six teams make the postseason per league. Only the top two division winners get byes.
17:24
Then the third best division winner will have to take on the third wild card in a best of three. First wild card, second wild card, they play a best of three. Then it, it's a bracket, right? They don't re-seed.
17:33
It's a bracket. The next round is a best of five, the DS, the divisional round. We're talking about to reach the best of seven championship series. American League, Yankees plus 150. I agree with this.
17:45
Again, Yankees at full strength to me are still head and shoulders above the fray. Where Aaron Judge? Mean- He- He would be full strength whenever, whenever that happens. Aaron Judge plus 150.
18:00
I, I was a little surprised they were the, they were the favorite. No, not me. I'll tell you the one that I would... Again, you know where I'm going.
18:06
Red Sox plus 280, and the reason I feel that is the same reason why, again, talked about them in July also, which I love the back end with the Red Sox with Whitlock and Chapman, eight and nine. Plus 280.
18:19
The bats woke up. This to me is still the team in a playoff situation that I like the most. And again, full strength, right? They, they got players that they're, that they need to come back as well. Big time players. So-
18:34
I just think that's the best bet on the American League board, and I don't trust any of the other teams. Like, I just don't trust-- I know a lot of people- Yeah...
18:41
will say with the Rays and the We- a lot of people love the White Sox. White Sox, by the way, better watch out. Guardians in the rear view now, two and a half back in the AL Central.
18:48
But I just, I ultimately don't in a playoff situation, I certainly don't trust the Rangers or Astros. The other- [laughs] Oh, yeah...
18:54
I mean, the, the team that h- uh, there are still gonna be a lot of folks who are like, "Mariners. Mariners." Yeah, yeah. "Mariners have the pitching," right? Man, it's been 130, 135 games, whatever it is right now.
19:06
I just, I can't get there anymore with them. Maybe it was my-- What was it? Was it the month we had 'em, May, was it? Maybe it was that experience.
19:14
They weren't even that bad, but I just, uh, you just, as Todd s- as Todd warned me before that month, he goes, "Oh, you're gonna be so frustrated with them." Yeah. But I don't know.
19:22
They, they-- You can make a case for them, too.
19:24
The one I wanted to ask you about was, was the White Sox, 'cause I think what's interesting about this market and how it can play out is, okay, you've got what, the three, three top teams right now, American League standings, right, are all AL East.
19:41
So only one of these teams is getting a bye, right? Correct. So that's right. If, then you gotta look at, okay, who's next? It's White Sox n- that would be next up, and then, and then the Guardians. Um, but White Sox,
19:55
y- you know, you get that bye, you only gotta win one series to cash this ticket then, and one best-of-five series.
20:03
So you'd be grab-- You, right, and have White Sox in theory- This is wh- this is why the Rays are as short-priced as they are, right? 'Cause the Rays are still clinging to the lead in the AL East,
20:13
and the White Sox are clinging to that lead in the AL Central. That is-- You're right. That is why they are priced how they are right now.
20:20
So that's where I'm, I'm just like, you could have plus 260 going into a best-of-five series, and that's all you gotta have. That's your series price.
20:27
But it, but it's also a case for taking a t- if you feel like the Guardians or the Twins, I won't even say the Tigers at this point, but if you feel like, eh, let's just include them.
20:40
If you feel a team will unseat the White Sox- Right...
20:43
in the AL Central, and will then still end up with [laughs] s- there's another layer, and then will still end up with a better record than the team that wins the AL West, which is how it looks- C- correct...
20:53
which is how it looks now. But if you unseat the White Sox, chances are that's gonna be a coin flip, too- Right... between who's the second-best division winner. But I guess from a n- what I, what I'm saying is- Yeah...
21:04
if you think the Guardians are going to continue this surge, and the Guardians have a s- really easy rec- really easy schedule, plus 650 is the case for them. I mean, they're two and a half back from the White Sox.
21:15
So y- Yeah... d- d- I like this example, 'cause you're two and a half back from a bye. Right. You could have plus 650 in a best-of-five series. I just, I think what we're, I think we're breaking this down well.
21:25
I, I think what I'm getting out of you, though, is we'd, uh, we'd have to be higher on these teams that we're talking about right now.
21:30
[laughs] Well, no, I mean, no, w- w- we're breaking it down well in terms of finagling the best price, right? Because the AL S- again, the AL Central, the, the top two division winners get there, right?
21:42
So the AL Central currently has the White Sox on top. Mm-hmm. But only a two-and-a-half game lead over the Guardians. They're, the White Sox are 69 and 63. And only a three game- The Astros, the Astros- Yeah...
21:52
lead the West at 66 and 66, three games worse currently, but they only have a half game lead over the Rangers and a two-and-a-half game lead over the Mariners.
21:59
So the Mariners and Guardians become the price play, but then you have to get your brain to, okay, even if I get that part right, like, I feel super smart. I've, I called it.
22:10
[laughs] The Guardians won the Central, the Central leader ended up being better than the Central, than the West. I skipped the best of three. You still have to talk yourself into the Guardians winning a best of five.
22:21
Which, by the way- Mm-hmm... you may be okay with, because it's still just one best of five. I, I r- that's, I- Yeah... I think Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Guardians all apply for this conversation.
22:31
You just gotta be confident they're gonna get that high in the regular season. I would argue the Mariners at six to one are a better play than the Guardians at plus 650 for winning a best of five. Okay, I like it.
22:43
I think it's a cool market. But if you're the Mariners, you gotta get through both the Astros and Rangers, and then you have to have a better record at the end than the AL Central leader. Yeah. I think this is cool.
22:51
To avoid the best of three. I think this is cool now that we have this double bye. Is super cool, because you have to make all of those sort of machinations- Yeah... in your head to try to determine what the best bet is.
23:00
And by the way, definitively, there probably isn't one. But that's how you have to think of it. Mm-hmm. NL's not quite as interesting as this. No, not quite. 'Cause this is a flat Earth American League.
23:11
Will Hill, maybe he has some thoughts on this. All his bets next on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, please don't forget about the Sharp Plays.
23:29
Unmatched transparency with records [clears throat] updated daily. That's records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
23:38
Scan the QR code for more. We got tweets beating the book. Tronsky, John Osher, "Hey Gil, NCAA has brought this upon themselves." Yeah, they have. Such a failure, yet another one.
23:49
This five-for-five rule, how did they not think to include the class of '22? "Hey everyone, it's five years from now on, but starting next year." What? "This is totally going to court," he says.
23:57
I think he might be right. Chris Heath, "I've heard nothing, but, uh, if there's a side at Stanford versus Hawaii, if the line is down to a cheap Stanford minus three and a half now."
24:06
See if Will Hill has a play on that game, Stanford-Hawaii. Uh, Terrence B, "I missed some of the show yesterday, so you may have shouted him out, but Shock G's birthday was yesterday. RIP.
24:16
Your reference or hom- or homage to him never gets old." Thank you, Terrence, I appreciate that. He's talking about when, uh, Torch D, uh, tweets in- Hmm...
24:24
and I will say, uh, Torch D, the one who put the sad in your pants, even though it's Shock G. Uh, LasVegas504, "Yo, we all love Michael Jackson, but his classic song 'Wanna Be Startin' Somethin',' help me sing it."
24:35
Oh, here we go with lyrics. Uh, us [laughs] LasVegas says it's, "Mama-say, mama-sa, mama-cousa." I always thought it was Pusack. Mm.
24:45
Yeah, that's a, that's one that's, that, that will trouble us till the dawn of time, till, till the end of time. He said, "I never, ever knew what the hell he was saying. Did you?"
24:52
No, I think he's saying something, that's all he's saying, something like that. The question is, is it Casa, uh, Ca- at the end of that, Cusa or Pusa is the only thing.
25:01
Really, this is a great radio show right now- Yeah, it's, um-... where we're just deciphering that. Uh, Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:06
You can follow him on Twitter at not The Will Hill, two Es onto the The.
25:10
He is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, which thank God I saved him for, because he was gonna name it the I Deeply Regret Having Not Made That Wager Earlier, uh, Because I Would've Won a Lot of Money, uh, and Now I Want to Harm Myself.
25:25
And I was like, "Just call it Shoulda Bet More," and he was like, "Cool." Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Thank God for Gil Alexander- Yes... as usual. Thank God he knows me.
25:32
Uh, let's put up the, uh, scan the QR code for his podcast. Can we do that so people can, uh, download and subscribe? Yeah, we'll, we'll see if we can get that up there.
25:38
It'll jump on the screen at some point in- What up, Willie?... bright neon green. What's going on?
25:43
Yeah, forever grateful, and I would say, uh, the highlight in the, in the podcast that I just, uh, dropped today, Dave Ross talking about his courting of Charlize Theron on Twitter. Uh- [laughs]...
25:53
you gotta check that out. I guess there's a LongHorn Steakhouse that opened near Dave. He's got high hopes. So our boy Dave kind of shooting for the stars there. Can I g- g- Wow...
26:01
let's just talk about the first half of that so people, what people, what Will's talking about. So Charlize Theron, famous actress, right? Gorgeous. Kelly, Kelly editorializes with gorgeous- Yep...
26:10
which is, which I think is a universal consensus. By the way, who's the most universally consensus gorgeous? Cindy Crawford, would you say? Lifetime? Um- Ooh... anyway. Good question.
26:18
So Charlize Theron, who is older now- Halle Berry... she put... Oh, Halle Berry. She put out a, uh, a thing on Twitter where it was kind of like a th- what the kids call a thirst trap, right?
26:29
She was, it's just like, "Look at me," attention thing where she's like, "Hey, are, like, older women not attractive?" Right? That kind of thing, you know, so she's like, she was, like, begging for a response.
26:37
And our own Dave Ross took the bait. [laughs] What was that? [laughs] Shot his shot. Dave lives on Twitter, man. You don't think [laughs] it, something like that can't occur with him out, with, without him weighing in?
26:48
Come on. Let us know how it goes, Dave. Anyway. He, he's gonna ask her her, uh, her Ryder Cup thoughts for next year. Yeah. Be a fascinating dinner conversation. Ah. What was your point about that again?
26:57
He did have a good line. He said- Yeah... "As long as we don't talk politics, I think it'll go okay." [laughs] That's great. At least Dave has the self-deprecating humor about it. Yes. Okay. You, you were, uh...
27:07
By the way, l- we, we noticed a lot of people bounced out of the app this morning, so you weren't able to listen to the previous segment.
27:12
So this is actually, I don't know that when we put it up we thought it would be as fun a discussion. But this is, this is a, a market to reach the championship series in baseball.
27:22
So not to win the pennant, but just to reach the best of seven. And this is kind of fascinating in the American League because you have to make
27:29
a determination of not only what team is set up for the playoffs, but you have, you wanna try to make a determination of who can avoid the best of three to begin with as a sort of catapulting nature to this.
27:44
So, you know, that, that brings the Mariners and the Guardians up because they're right in second place, only a couple games back in their respective divisions.
27:54
But you want to [laughs] but the other part of this is you have to hope
27:59
if you're the Mariners or the Guardians, that your division l- winner, ultimately if it's you, ends up being the better of the two behind the AL East, which we assume will be the best division winner of the three, 'cause only the top two get the bye.
28:13
So it's a- Yeah... it's a, like a three-layered thing. Where does your- Right... where do you land on this?
28:20
I'm just looking now to make sure, I mean, uh, 'cause the team I like is the Mariners, but the Mariners, even though they've played well here, are still five games under.
28:27
The White Sox are five games over, so that's six in the loss they'd have to make up. I like Seattle. I think there's value plus 190 to win the division.
28:34
I, I talked about it on the podcast, talked a little bit last night. Femi Adefeso, it's funny, he didn't listen to the podcast. Podcast wasn't even up yet. We kind of came on this independently.
28:41
But you look at the schedule.
28:43
Now, the, the market knows the schedule and the, the oddsmakers know the schedule, but I think 17 of the last 22 games, guys, for the Mariners are against the A's, the Angels, and the Rockies.
28:53
They play five games against their competition in the AOS, the Astros and the Rangers. All five of those games are in Seattle.
28:59
So I know, like, at this point of the season, you are who you are, and for a s- for a team that's five, six games under to say, "All right, now they're gonna get going," like, you are who you are at this point.
29:08
But that being said, there's a lot of talent there if you just look, you know, player for player. I mean, they should've been in the World Series last year.
29:13
They were up 2-0 going home for games three, four, and five, and then had a lead at game seven. I know a lot of guys have underachieved, but they call up Kate Anderson, the, uh, the hotshot prospect, the lefty pitcher.
29:23
You know, they've got Gilbert and Kirby and all these guys- Yeah... who we kinda like that I, I kinda think, you know, feel like they should be a little bit better than they are.
29:29
But to me, you can poke holes in the Astros who are just firing people [laughs] left and right in first place, which is kind of unusual for a baseball team to do in August that's in first place, fire their GM and, like, keeping their manager, but that was a discussion.
29:40
Rangers can't really hit. DeGrom's not the same. I think the Mariners is the best bang for your buck. Now, they're gonna have to play the best two out of three, I think.
29:47
I don't think they're catching the White Sox, but at six to one, you get them home for the best two out of three and you're one round away if you win that from, from cashing a six to one.
29:55
So plus 190 or so to win the division for Seattle, and plus 600 to reach the ALCS. I, I don't think either of those are bad bets. Yeah. And as far as to reach the ALCS, maybe you're right.
30:05
Maybe even if they do play the best of three, maybe that's still the best number on the board.
30:09
And to, uh, just sort of, uh, crystallize what you're talking about, Cleveland had had the easiest remaining schedule for the most part, the biggest part of this summer, and now the way that it has shifted with 29 games left in the season, Seattle, correct, is the team with the easiest remaining schedule based on aggregate win percentage of remaining opponents.
30:30
440 is the Mariners', uh, aggregate win percentage of opponents remaining in the season. Cleveland, third easiest at 471. So yeah, Seattle, I mean, you, you said it. Rockies, Angels, Athletics.
30:42
I mean, the seven against the Angels, seven against the Athletics, not to mention Blue Jays and Rangers and teams like that as well. So yeah.
30:50
And they got rid of the, like they had to play the Cubs for three this past weekend and the Phillies for two. They've already won, what, four out of the five.
30:57
They had a walk-off Saturday against the Cubs where, I mean, you don't win a game like that.
31:01
You get maybe one a year like that, where they were down two runs in the bottom of the ninth, two out, nobody on, double, single, walk-off home run back to back to back, and they won that game.
31:10
So maybe that's the kind of win that gets them going. I, I do think there's some value there with Seattle. Yeah.
31:14
It's so funny, too, 'cause we're 133 games in and we're still like [laughs] with 29 games left, we're just like- I know... any day now, Seattle. [laughs] Any time you're ready, you make your move. You still have time.
31:25
Well, if, if Cal- Yeah... Raleigh homers in every game they play- That, that would help... that, uh, uh- That would help... they got a shot. Yeah. I keep,
31:32
I keep comparing it to, like, when you, you know, you're trying to start your car and it just, you, you think it's gonna start, it's about to start, it's making the noise, then it kind of dies.
31:39
May- maybe one of these times it's actually gonna start here for Seattle. Maybe, maybe it's starting right now. Wow, that was such East Coast memories right there, just trying to start the car. Yeah. Over and over.
31:47
Oh, yes. Okay. Sorry, had a, had a memory. Had a, had a- [laughs] I drifted for a moment. You do have a couple plays in Major League Baseball today, starting with the O's at the Cardinals in our league play.
31:58
Yeah, and as far as the sixth seed, I think the Orioles are my team now. These teams are all flawed and, and Cleveland has the lead right now, but I, I still like Baltimore's town, I think, more than everybody else.
32:06
I just, I, I like Kyle Bradish more than I like McGreevy. You look at McGreevy, the expected ERA, uh, i- is way up there. The expected batting average in the 280s.
32:15
His numbers are really poor all across the board when, in the underlying stuff. Now he's out-pitched a lot of that, but I got the better pitcher. Uh, I, I'm okay with the price here. I'm surprised it's only minus 105.
32:24
Wouldn't be surprised if that ticks up a little bit. So I like Baltimore here to, uh, to beat St. Louis. Okay.
32:29
Yeah, you have, you've steadfastly remained behind the O's the whole way through, so, uh, again, there are markets of who will be the sixth seed.
32:36
Um, great ways to bet baseball all throughout the season, not only just pre-flop. Uh, and then the Cubbies are in action today. Every team is in action today. You like the Cubs at even money.
32:46
Yeah, I didn't give it out anywhere yesterday, but I bet them last night. Oh, that was a, that was a rough way to go to bed here- Ooh... a little after midnight on the East Coast. Yeah.
32:53
Blowing a four-run lead late in a, a walk-off, uh, an out away, maybe a strike away from, from winning that. Uh, I, I think they win today, though.
33:00
Uh, they've hit left-handed pitching well all year, number one in the league, OPS against lefties. Eduardo Rodriguez, the ERA is about half what the expected ERA is, so there's some negative regression coming his way.
33:11
Uh, Boyd's not great. I thought about maybe playing Cubs first five team total over two and a half, trying to get at just the Cubs lineup versus Rodriguez.
33:19
I did that the other day against Kelly, and they, everything else won except the team total.
33:22
So sometimes it's, you, you know, you fade the pitcher and you figure out the pitcher you want to fade, and that's the easy part, but then, uh, the hard part is, like executing. Do I go first five team total over?
33:31
Do I just pick the game? I'll just stick with the game, although I think those other bets are, uh, decent derivatives to play. But I'll go Cubs to, to bounce back after a rough loss here and get the wins.
33:40
By the way, before the Cubs forked over that four to nothing lead yesterday, losing to the Diamondbacks five to four, uh, they set a franchise record on Tuesday by scoring their 30th unanswered run over three games.
33:50
Remember they, they trailed two to nothing to the Mariners. They scored 19 straight to win that 19 to two. Then they shut out the Diamondbacks seven to nothing, and then they went to the four nothing lead.
33:59
30 consecutive runs, breaking their previous record of 29 over a three-game stretch in 1969. Cubs have been in, uh, have been a franchise since 1870, since they started as the Chicago White Stockings.
34:14
Coming back on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:30
[laughs] Have I ever said we have the best listeners- You have... in the history of radio? 'Cause we do. We get tweets, beauty of the book. Uh, this is from, uh, Skit at Skitso360.
34:41
He says, "Michael Jackson actually says, 'I'm gonna say it one more time, I'm not gonna stop.' Source, trust me, bro." [laughs] It's that. And then Torch D has tweeted in after I sort of sent out a bat signal for him.
34:54
Torch D goes, "All right. Big moment here for me. I've been tweeting into this show for the last four years. Every time I do, you say, 'The one who puts the satin in your panties.' [laughs] What does that mean?
35:04
I haven't a clue and I haven't been [laughs] I've been hearing it almost daily since 2022." So Torch D, w- for whatever reason, when you tweet in, I thought sh- I, I thought to myself, Torch D sounded to me like Shock G.
35:16
And Shock G in the famous Tupac hit, I Get Around, Shock G from Digital Underground says, "The one who put the satin in your panties." That, that's all that is. Ah. I, see I keep learning. Yeah, man. I continue to learn.
35:29
Cal- Kelly's learning right or wrong, or wrong or right. I didn't, I didn't know that was the song that came from. Mm-hmm.
35:33
Uh, Unc- [laughs] Uncle, so Torch D, please- Hey, hey, years later, Torch, we're all getting caught up. Hey, buddy...
35:38
I love, the funniest part of this, Torch D had no idea what I was talking about- Yeah, he didn't have any idea... four years ago. I didn't have any idea. Yeah. We're learning. Yeah, but you know who did?
35:44
Terrence B knew exactly what I was talking about. Uncle Bush, "Charlize Theron? I've been saying Sharif Theron this whole time." [laughs] It's all right. Tying it all together. Uh, let's see. Oh, that's great.
35:55
Willie B Betten. This is, uh, I, oh, I've got a problem with this take. Willie- Problem with this take...
36:01
Willie B Betten, "Sidney Crawford's on the Mount Rushmore," he says, "for sure, but my wife and I both agree that Tiffani Amber Thiessen should be on there.
36:08
She went from the hottest girl next door to the hottest cougar on Food Network." I mean, look, I, I, I watched as much Saved by the Bell as any human being on the planet back in the day.
36:16
Oh, it was fine television on a Saturday morning. Fine. [laughs] That's right. W- wasn't that, wasn't that the TGIF? Wasn't that the start of that? Oh, I, I would- Or even before. I don't know...
36:24
I would watch it on Saturday mornings. Like I was a- Yeah. Like I was in college watching it. It was on at all times- Yeah... back in, in, back in the '90s, man. Elizabeth Berkley. Elizabeth Berkley.
36:32
Tiffani Amber Thiessen, Lark Voorhies. There you go. Look at, look at you. Oh, trust me, I know all about it. Look at you. Yeah. Yeah, I don't, I don't think, uh, old Tiff is, uh, getting up there.
36:41
Dell, Mind the Gap Radio, "Why does the long snapper need to occupy a roster spot? If we can't teach another position to long snap or punt, it's ridiculous."
36:49
This is the, uh, this goes, harkens back to the Matt Brown, "We don't have a punter who can kick that 21-yard field goal?"
36:56
That one I w- I find more ridiculous, where they gotta turn to the wide receiver instead of, like, the punter. I know those long snappers, man. They got, they got long arms. They're, like, in shape.
37:05
They don't look like other offensive linemen. No Emu Doug, "Gentlemen, thank you. My days are not mine because I am my wife's caregiver, and she requires many therapy and medical appointments.
37:14
It may seem trite, but I look forward to your show as it provides consistency and entertainment to my mornings. I hope to stop by and say hi someday. Your efforts are greatly appreciated."
37:21
Thank you, No Emu Doug, and I hope, um, your wife gets better soon, and great, great of you to take on that responsibility, and I hope everything, uh, works out better quickly for you and your wife.
37:36
Will Hill kind enough to join us for a second segment here, uh, ostensibly to talk college football. But before we talk about college football and get a few picks, I just...
37:43
'Cause we-- I brought up the thing about, um, the Cubs and 30 consecutive runs. You love baseball like I do, and I'm always fascinated by these records that you don't even know, right?
37:53
You, we w- no one would know, hey, what's the Cubs' consecutive runs streak record, right? And you find out it was 29. They broke it with 30 straight before, uh, another team score, scored.
38:03
Um, this one the other night falls under the category of, really? This never happened before? And then I thought about it a little more and I'm like, "Oh, I guess there were enough qualifiers that, that it did."
38:15
And what I'm referring to is the Pirates beat the Padres, they've been beaten twice in a row now, um, in extra innings. But two nights ago, they did so in the 12th inning, and they beat the Padres 3-2.
38:25
Johan Ramirez came in for the Buccos, and he recorded the only save in MLB history, since saves became official in 1969, to include three strikeouts with the tying run in scoring position in the 12th inning or later.
38:43
Is that... I, I can't believe that's, that's never happened before. It's wild. But I guess 12th inning and beyond, three strikeouts, runner in scoring position was enough qualifiers to get to that.
38:52
Well, and you get the, w- w- you get the, you know, you have the extra inning ghost runner now too, right? So you a- you, you have one in scoring position right away. Well, so there's more opportunities. Right.
39:01
W- was that surprising to you, Will? That that's the first time ever? A little bit. I mean, I, I guess like what you said, though. There's enough qualifiers- Yeah... where it makes sense that it wouldn't have happened.
39:11
But, uh, they've been playing baseball a long time, so anytime anything happens for the first time- Right... it does, uh, it does kind of raise your eyebrows. Interesting. All right, North Carolina/TCU.
39:18
Remind us how you're playing this. Under 47 and a half. Billy Edwards Jr., the quarterback for North Carolina, won the job in, in all reports from North Carolina. You want it because he's kind of a caretaker of the ball.
39:31
He doesn't turn it over. No negative plays. To me, it sounds like game manager conservative. Belichick's gotten conservative here in his latter years. Uh, the kid for TCU that's the quarterback is Jaden Craig.
39:41
Comes over from Harvard. Step up in competition. Uh, you know, the figure they'll probably be conservative, and a little bit of, of weather there in Ireland, and this game is in Ireland. A little rain, a little wind.
39:51
Uh, 47 and a half. I mean, if you can get a better number, tho- those are some key numbers, and it, it keeps dropping, but I think it, it keeps dropping for a good reason.
39:58
You can still get under 47 and a half, but I think that's still a, a good play here. Let's see if Belichick's team can be a little more competitive. I want, I want them to be...
40:05
I don't want this to end like this for Belichick. Just as, you know, you mentioned I like baseball history. I like baseball.
40:10
Football, as a football histor- historian too, I know Belichick, more of a polarizing figure, but I, I mean, does-- do we really wanna see him go three and nine at North Carolina, get fired, and that's how his career ends?
40:19
I, I w- I don't have much hope that it's gonna go, like, really well, but I'd like to see them be a little bit better than people think.
40:23
Well, maybe you shouldn't run up the score on Joe Gibbs 2.0 and act like, "Well, if you don't wanna score so many points, you, maybe you should stop us." Oh, geez. Stop being that guy. Have class.
40:33
You know, he brought it up. I wasn't gonna bring it up, but that's my response. San Jose State, Spartans. I fed me-- I pet the tiger. That's what happened. [laughs] Yes, you did.
40:41
At USC, this is at, uh, the Coliseum in Los Angeles. USC favored by a tidy 38 and a half. What are you doing here? I'm gonna go USC team total over 48 and a half minus 130 at DraftKings. Uh, I, I want...
40:56
Look, uh, Lincoln Riley, when he has a chance to name his score, he usually names it pretty highly. Uh, they played San Jose State a few years ago. They scored 56. There's a 73 against Missouri State.
41:05
There's a 59 against Georgia Southern in the last couple years. And, and Todd Wisniew I think is coming on. I think you can ask him.
41:11
I, I wanna say Wisniew, To- Todd had a bet against USC, like in-game, getting a million points, figuring USC was gonna take the, the foot off the gas.
41:19
I think it was USC, and USC was like throwing with a minute left in a 40-point lead, and Todd basically had a conniption. I know there was a Lane Kiffin USC game maybe last year, but you get the idea.
41:30
Yeah, Lane Kiffin, uh, Riley's gonna run up the score. 49's that key number. Seven touchdowns, and if you look at the, the past recent history against Cupcakes, uh, you, you figure they'll get the seven touchdowns.
41:40
So team total over 48 and a half for USC is how I'm playing. Yeah. I, I think I remember. It was an early season USC game a couple years ago, I wanna say. Something like that. And he did throw a...
41:50
Todd did throw a conniption. Good, good word. Yeah. We, we, we're sorry about his bet. He'll get in that chat and just send three straight messages in a row talking to nobody, talking to himself. "Can you believe this?"
42:00
Exclamation points, capital letters, and he just has one of his meltdowns, which are, which are amusing. All right, let's go to the ACC. North Carolina State at Virginia. Uh, Cavaliers favored by five and a half.
42:15
Yeah, I like the points here. NC State, they ticked up to six yesterday. You might still be able to find a six, but, uh, very rarely do you get a quarterback.
42:22
You almost have to do a double take anytime you see a quarterback actually returning to the team he played for last year in this age of college football. But CJ Bailey for NC State, this is his junior year.
42:30
He played as a freshman. He played as a sophomore. 52 career touchdowns. He's actually pretty good. And Virginia lost a lot on offense.
42:37
They lost their quarterback, Chandler Morris, to, uh, I don't wanna say to the pros 'cause I don't know if he's gonna make the NFL.
42:42
But they lost a lot of their backfield, and they lo- they won a lot of close games last year. To me, this is just a close game, a field goal game.
42:49
I like having Bailey and the points here, so I'm gonna take NC State plus the points. And just from past years, Gil, week zero, week one, if you're the points, not the worst idea to put a little on the money line too.
43:01
too, because you do see, do have where it's hard to price these teams, you know, kind of appropriately Will, your, your audio got a little janky here. We only have, like, 90 seconds left. Repeat what you just said.
43:10
That week zero, week one, what was your point? Money lines. Yeah, week zero, week one, you, you see a lot of... Yeah, week one you see a lot of upsets, a lot of variance this early in the season. Okay.
43:22
So, so, so take your shots. And real quick then, what's the most outlying college football season-long Will Hill thought of the year? I'm not, I, I'm not sold on Texas. I, I'm not, I'm not sold on Texas.
43:35
I think Texas could have a disappointing year. I think Arch Manning's a little overrated. Okay. Right, whenever I ask that question, I think we've gotten that answer multiple times- Oh, we've gotten-...
43:44
about Texas being overrated... you know, going back to, like, the Hou- like, the Houston Texans conversation- Oh, yeah...
43:49
uh, yesterday, the college conversation I've heard back and forth all off-season, it's, it's Arch is overrated or Arch is the best quarterback and he just had a be- he had a down beginning of the season, and he's gonna be great.
44:01
I don't feel like he's gonna enter the draft next year. I'd, I'd prefer... If, if, if- If it's the team he doesn't like- I have a feeling he might stick around... I mean, it's not a crazy take anymore. No.
44:10
No, it's not at all. Right? Like, it's not wild. Not. Will, we're not gonna r- chance it anymore. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. Will- Appreciate it, guys. Thank you... Will Hill, everybody.
44:18
Pay those internet bills. I milked, I milked that as long as I could before I- Telephone bills, automobiles. [laughs] There you go, Kelly.
44:26
Uh- One of the great lyrics of all time, "Pay my telephone bills, pay my automobiles." That's right. The, uh- Mm-hmm... I've never seen that with Will, though. We never- No, he's always got a great connection...
44:35
I don't remember Will getting choppy like that before. I don't either. That was weird. I don't either. Maybe it's- Thanks, Will... Charlie. It's a great reminder, I do it as well. I, uh, beginning of seasons, right?
44:44
NFL, NBA, college basketball, if you think you've got a leg up on the books, the books are trying to figure it out, too. It might be a sprinkle the money line later in the season.
44:53
It's bet m- a higher percentage of money line early in the season. On dogs, for sure. Keep that in mind in Survivor too, though. Yeah.
45:01
When you think you know what you think you know, when you don't re- For sure [laughs]... when none of us really knows a damn thing. Country Club next on a Numbers Game at Visa.
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
