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Aug 26, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 26, 2026 | Hour 3
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46:03
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Transcript
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0:53
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on BSIN.
1:02
Outcomp Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Billin right there, everybody. Heyo. Kelly's sprinting back in the studio. Y- yes, sir. That's what he does.
1:14
Uh, still to come, Todd Wishnev. We're gonna continue with our head-to-head props in the NFL a little later on. Um, and momentarily, Win Total Wednesdays. That's right. Can I give a shout-out quick? Please.
1:26
How about m- my, my cousin Nicole- Nicole... who just had a brand-new baby. Hey. At home on maternity leave. Congratulations, Nicole. Brand-new, healthy baby Harper. They're at home with her husband Connor, okay?
1:38
I've been watching the show. Connor's a big tennis fan, so he had got really excited apparently at the beginning of the show that you were going into all the tennis. I don't think he watches as much.
1:46
Nicole watches a lot. Oh, wow. Yeah. Wait. Uh, Nicole, when I was growing up, last name Wardeberg, married Connor Funk. Funk.
1:58
Wor- what, what's a w- what, uh, what's a worse last name to go through life, uh, with, Wardeberg or Funk? Oh, I think Funk is cool. Those are two tough ones. I know.
2:07
I, I think Funk's cool too, but- So now she, is she now Nicole Funk? She's Nicole Funk, yeah. Come on. That's awesome. Is it an awesome name? Yeah. Okay.
2:13
That's kinda how I look at it too, but- I mean, I understand, I understand what you're going with... it is, it's tough. It's tough. Uh, you could pretty much put any name before Funk and it's cool.
2:20
I kind of think the same thing too. Especially if it's multi-syllable. So shout out to the Funks at home watching. Congratulations- Yeah... Connor and Nicole Funk. Is that short for Funkadelic?
2:28
Did y'all go to Ellis Island and it was Funkadelic was your last name? [laughs] They, they, they shortened it to Funk. Man, has that been a story this week. Uh, Chris of St.
2:35
Barts on Twitter, "Nothing like betting Gilly tennis while loopy under nitrous at the dentist." Nice. Hey, as long as they win, doesn't, doesn't matter if you even know what you're doing, right? As long as they win.
2:45
Chance Copperpot, I thank you for this, Chance. Chance, "Isn't it funny how some of us take pop culture references as assumed knowledge?" How did y'all not know that was from I Get Around from Tupac?
2:56
How did you not know that was an I Get Around reference? I don't, I don't even, I don't even know how many hundreds of times I've listened to that song too.
3:01
He said, "If I see Torch D pop up in the Toddy chat in the Discord," Todd Wishnev joining us later.
3:06
He said, "I see satin in your panties," and just assumed he knew, oh, I say, "Satin in your panties," in the Discord he says it, and just assumed he knew what, what that meant. I'll tell you why, Chance Copperpot. Yeah.
3:16
Yeah. I'll tell you why we're, we're on one plane and they're on another one, because Gen X, I'm gonna assume you're Gen X like me, Gen X, just better human beings. That's what I'm gonna go with. He's not.
3:27
Chance is, like, my age. Oh. All right. Sorry about that. How about, uh, you want some news? Please. It's about time we got around to some news. Here's a funny one. PGA Tour suspending a golfer for betting on golf.
3:42
Oh, wait. I like this. I liked it too. Until you found out who it was. Until I found out who it was. Oh, no. This would be Ma- No, no, no. I actually- Oh... 'cause it's not intriguing at all. Oh, I see. Matt Gogel- Oh...
3:53
who's, who's on the Champions Tour. Oh, Matt, come on. Who, uh, of course, in golf-like fashion, like, his, his apology I just read through and it was like, he's like, "I, it was, like, a couple years ago.
4:03
I didn't even know it was wrong at the time. It was, like, on stuff I wasn't playing in." Can I ask a stupid question? How'd they find out that Matt Gogel bet on golf? That's a great question. I don't know.
4:11
I've been scrolling through this article. I- Did he-... that hasn't come up yet...
4:14
did he do the, uh, Calvin Ridley thing, where Calvin Ridley, uh, opened up his account in Florida under the clever pseudonym Calvin Ridley? [laughs] This is- Did Matt Go- [laughs] Did he do the same thing?
4:25
This is, this is his quote. By the way, I think it's Gogel. I think that's how you say his last name. Yeah. It, here, a quote from him.
4:29
"In 2024 and 2025, I unknowingly violated the PGA Tour policy by placing small recreational wagers on golf.
4:36
I want to be clear that these wagers were not placed on any regular PGA Tour events," which I don't really know what that means. Well, then what the hell are you betting on?
4:43
"Champions Tour events, or any tournament in which I participated." So what, he's betting LPGA? I, yeah, right. LPGA or, like, college golf. "I would never knowingly vi- violate the integrity of the game of golf.
4:55
I made an honest mistake and look forward to playing in 2027 on the Champions Tour." Come on, Matt Gogel. Just own it. Don't you love, this, that's, like, a name that I, I barely know.
5:05
He wo- he won Pebble in tw- uh, 2002. He- It does sound vaguely familiar. Don't you love these guys, though, like, th- these names like this and you look up career earnings and you're just like, "Oh, no." It's millions.
5:16
It's millions. It- uh- Like, what?
5:17
Drew, Zach, and I, not that we do it often, but I think we once went down the tennis rabbit hole of, like, career earnings of all these players that only tennis hardos know through the years, right?
5:27
The stuff's mind-blowing. It's incredible. And then you wonder why do they grind out on the tour for so long? Yeah, 'cause they made, they made millions. Yeah, bro. Grinding. Exactly. It just cr- yeah, yeah.
5:36
And we make fun of Patrick Cantlay every week on Long Shots for not winning. He's just out there to c- uh, collecting checks, collecting fat checks.
5:42
When I say millions, I mean, a couple million, a few million for, for a lot of these players. Some news- Better living than you can get anywhere else... some other news out of Texans-Panthers joint practice today.
5:51
Oh, I like joint practices. Do you want serious news or, or funny news? Please, I hope they fought. I'm always rooting for a fight in joint practices. No fight. All right. Okay, serious news.
5:59
Texans believe that offensive lineman Braden Smith suffered a foot injury, had to be a I believe he suffered a foot injury. He had to be carted off the field. That is their starting right tackle.
6:10
So that is big deal for Houston Texans. That's from Adam Schefter. Yep. Yeah. Now, the funny news, uh, Bryce Young versus the Texans in joint practice today. Four sacks, two interceptions. Say it, say it, Kelly.
6:22
Tough day for Bryce Young. I don't know if he's any good at football. [laughs] And I lean towards no. Every time he comes up, I'm gonna ask you to, to give that opinion. That's fine. That's fine. Still not done yet.
6:32
Un- until you finally figure it out. You know what I wrote... I, I think I wrote it up well in the, in the, uh, betting guide 2.0, comes out Monday. Yeah. What I do know about- I should, I should get that in...
6:42
you know what I know about Bryce Young? That, that this I feel like gets brought up about Kyler Murray all the time, but Bryce Young, like, escapes this same thing.
6:50
What I do know about Bryce Young is that he's small, and that a small guy continuing to play 14-plus games a season is not gonna happen.
6:59
Bryce Young, though, we can say two things about him that really improved over time. His ability to avoid turnovers- Mm... was actually getting better. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
7:09
And his ability to avoid sacks was the biggest thing. I remember the Rams had a million pressures on him in that playoff game, and he, I think he only got sacked twice.
7:17
Career high in passing yards last year with 3,011, career low in sacks with 27. Yeah. So I mean, you gotta give him that. I gotta give him that. You know what else is funny, though?
7:25
When you, when you bring that up, they scored less points last year than they did the year before. Yes, and in that, but in that playoff game- [laughs]...
7:32
they actually flirted with, I don't know if they flirted with beating them, but they kinda did. Eh, it was, yeah, they kinda did. That was probably their best game offensively, as I recall. Probably. Yeah.
7:40
Um- Okay, over or under? Danny did a great job with this. Oh, wait, wait, wait. Did we do a Win Total Wednesday as intro? We don't have one? We do. We have it. It's Wednesday. The guys looking over or under.
7:47
It's another edition of Win Total Wednesday on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] Thank you, Ryan. Dude, you gave me a check. I believe, I believe, I believe you stepped over Ryan's vocal there. I did. I apologize.
7:58
Please don't ever do that. I do it sometimes. [laughs] All right, so what Danny has done- No crap. [laughs] We have, we have comple- what'd you say? I said no crap. [laughs] I do it all the time.
8:07
I love that you just, that you had to stop me. So- That was great...
8:09
so, uh, what Danny has done here, we're, by the way, Danny's last day he's here on the show, so we're sorta letting him run, run the, uh, pi- pilot the ship here last three days. Yeah. Do you pilot a ship?
8:18
Uh, yeah, yeah. Pilot the boat. Steer a ship. Sure. Uh, we're gonna do- Steer the ship as a pilot... one team per division. So eight divisions, National Football League.
8:26
He has selected, he has hand-selected one team just to get our quick thoughts over under on season win total. A- and look, I didn't consult you on this. I said, "Let's go blind. Let's go in blind."
8:35
Yeah, no, we don't know what's coming. I kinda wanna see what just our initial reactions are, and we'll go through, b- you know, kinda rapid fire through a few. Okay. First team,
8:43
AFC's New England Patriots he has given us. Win total is 10 and a half. The under is juiced to minus 140. My instant reaction is I get why the under is juiced.
8:52
As great as they were last year, what were they, 14 and 3 last year? Mm-hmm. Um, the schedule, right? The schedule. It's, it's the big headline. Everybody should know.
9:01
They had not only the easiest schedule in football last year, they had the, they had one of the easiest schedules this century last year in the National Football League. Good on them.
9:09
You can't control what your schedule is. They got all the way to the Super Bowl. There's, you can't detract as far, you know, f- in terms of how they capitalized on that. But the schedule is much harder this year.
9:20
Can they get to 11 and six? It's act- I, I don't, I don't think they can. I think that is properly priced. I would actually play the under minus 140.
9:29
Much harder schedule than it was a year ago, 'cause that was, like, historically one of the easiest schedules- Yes... ever. Just to put in pers- I like bringing up this note.
9:36
Still the 12th easiest schedule this year based off of w- uh, win totals heading- Well-... into the season... 'cause you get the Dolphins and Jets four times total. [laughs] Right. That helps out. Yeah.
9:45
Um, I al- this al- this also jumps out at me. This year, they will face eight opponents who finished top 12 a season ago in EPA. That's right. So that's pretty significant.
9:56
Le- Le- lean under, this is a tough one- Yeah... for me though. Lean under, it is priced that. It is priced that way. I don't think it's far, though.
10:00
I, I, I still think the Patriots are, are clearly the second-best team in that division, and it's probably 10, 11-ish wins. Pittsburgh Steelers is what he has selected from the AFC North.
10:09
Under eight and a half is slightly juiced at minus 130. I agree with that slight juicing, uh, because they old.
10:18
Like, I mean, Aaron Rogers gonna be 43, but you have the, you know, you have your stalwart on defense in, in Hayward at, at 37 years old. I just feel like, and it's gonna time out perfectly for Mike Tomlin- Yeah...
10:29
I just feel like this catches up to them dramatically this year. Yeah, yeah.
10:33
I, uh, this, this is one of those teams, and there's several that we have in the NFL this, uh, this season of, like, hey, the team that you know isn't the best in the division that stumbled into winning the division last year.
10:43
Mm-hmm. Right? So, like, you know, we, what have we, people talked about with the Ravens and the Bengals all off-season, how easy the schedules are. The, well, the Steelers got the toughest schedule- Yeah...
10:51
in the AFC North. Um, they've got three back-to-back road games, no bye after their game in Paris, and a trio of short week games. Yeah, I'm gonna go under for this exercise.
11:02
I have not bet it this year though- I have not either... even though I have comically bet it on many years. What I'm staring very hard at, Gil Alexander, is betting, laying the no price on them for the playoffs.
11:12
It's like minus 160. Jason- I think it's worth a bet... Jason Stark furiously typing a, uh, tweet right now to- Yep, that's right... to kill us on that. Ooh, this is a good one, Danny.
11:20
AFC South, Danny has selected the Titans, six and a half. Close to a coin flip in terms of the juice. Under slightly juiced at six and a half. I actually don't have an opinion here.
11:30
I don't much either, but I'll, I will say under for the sake of this exercise just because I am higher than most on the Jags, and I'm, I'm high on the Texans, but apparently not as, as high as others.
11:42
I believe in the person that Cam Ward is. Me too. I think he needs to ratchet back the public frustration that he expressed a couple times last year, but I think he'll get it. Broncos, win total nine and a half.
11:55
I'm going over. Going over too. Over. I just think the defense is so, so good. Mm-hmm. I do think they're, you know, they know what Bo Nix's sort of, uh, flaws are.
12:04
They've, they're gonna, they're trying to help him with some personnel this year I like that Sean Payton has given up the play calling early.
12:10
I don't know if that'll stick, but I, that defense makes me always wanna go over here. 10 and seven is all I gotta get to- Yeah... with the Broncos. Over. High four for this team. We talked about this yesterday. Yep.
12:19
I, this is the market I would bet them in over the win total. However, I'm waiting on this, Gil. After they play Seattle and on October 15th, I'm gonna look to swing in on an over.
12:28
All right, we got a, we got a lot to clean up later with- We do... NFC and then some props. Brian Noonan next, though. No, Todd Wishnev next. Todd Wishnev next. That's what's up.
12:36
Boy, it's gonna be tough when Danny's gone. You can tell. That was just an early example. Early taste. Coming back on The Numbers Game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:45
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12:56
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13:05
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. College football week zero is here.
13:22
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13:26
Next week, our updated NFL betting guide drops with post preseason updates, week one betting systems, contest strategeries, and updated best bets from VSiN's experts.
13:34
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13:42
Start for as little as $9.99 or save 50% with a VSiN Pro annual subscription. Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. I'm only gonna read a few tweets 'cause Todd gets ornery if I read more.
13:54
Uh, Brian Point Shafer, "Is Todd the only handicapper that doesn't gloat when one of his plays wins, and when it loses he makes fun of himself? He is as real as can be." I concur.
14:05
By the way, let me just take umbrage, though, with somebody who was, like, saying on Twitter that all I talk about is winning that Red Sox 80 to one. Have I ever even mentioned it? Umbrage. Yeah.
14:14
'Cause I'm gonna take umbrage. You, listen, umbrage is something you can only take. You can only take. You can't give it. You can take it, though. Yeah. Yeah.
14:20
Seriously, I wasn't even here- You didn't hear it when you weren't here... I wasn't even here when they won. Yeah. Psh, please. Everybody else would gloat way more on that.
14:26
Chance Copperpot, "I'm on the back end of Gen X, so yes I am a '70s baby, Kelly, but the doctors say we're the same age biologically." So I guess you're both correct. Steve- Good... "New York football Giants 42.
14:35
Thanks for the preseason update on Bryce Young, Kelly. Does this mean we can cash our CJ Stroud [laughs] number one pick tickets?" [laughs] That's a great, great tweet. Yep. Uh- Still hold onto that one...
14:43
Skits360, "Farewell and good luck Danny. Producer number 11 has big shoes to fill." Yeah, he, she does. Amen. Mike Rouse, "Is there a difference between having a baby and having a brand-new baby, Kelly?
14:53
Isn't it assumed all babies are brand new?" I agree. I thought the same thing. Well, it's her second child, so it's, it's the new one. Oh, okay. All right.
15:01
Ladies and gentlemen, he is the star of the Megapod, the Beating the Book Megapod, which premieres, what is it? Uh, next, no, not next Thursday, the Thursday after that.
15:11
Or, or earlier in the week, hopefully, for week one. He's also the star of the Showtime docuseries Action, and of course the main star of Wishnev Wednesdays.
15:18
It's Toddy Wishnev, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line from Pittsburgh, PA. What's happening? You forgot, "And that guy is too fat to win. It's impossible. Did you see him on the show?" [laughs] Yeah, that too.
15:32
That too. That was another thing. Okay, we have a lot of topics to get to.
15:36
Um, let's start with, in no particular order, let us start with, uh, the notion of, and you came up with this term, which I thought was brilliant, premature physiculation.
15:46
What do you mean by that, and why should people be aware of this?
15:50
Well, I coined the phrase premature physiculation because we have a very intelligent friend, I will say he's a very intelligent fella, at least about certain topics, and sometimes- Steve Fezzik. Yeah...
16:01
when watching a game, in-gaming, he gets overly excited and wants to do something maybe before it is really warranted. For an example, maybe, you know, a team scores seven-nothing.
16:16
Immediately he wants to jump on in-game that team, uh, you know, and you haven't even seen the other team, you know, with the ball yet.
16:25
You know, and I understand why he does it, because it's always a fine line between having, trying to get the in-game bet prior to the algorithm adjusting up, and the other side of it is being, you know, too late and when they've already figured it out, and especially in, like, college football.
16:43
You see this early in the season a lot. They don't know anything about these teams, folks. They, these teams are [laughs] completely different. Ask Chris Felica how many different transfers are on these teams.
16:53
They have no idea. So, you know, Brad Powers knows his stuff, but m- most other people don't, and they probably don't know how these teams are gonna gel together.
17:03
And so you're gonna see some lines that are gonna be way off, and they will adjust in the algorithm when everybody goes, "Ooh, wait a second, UCLA's not that bad?"
17:14
You know, like for instance, I remember, you know, some games where UCLA was, like, a gigantic underdog to Penn State. Mm-hmm.
17:19
You know, midway through the second quarter you're like, "Wait a second, UCLA's better," you know? [laughs] And they were like, and then the algorithm was already onto it.
17:26
But so I understand why he wants to jump out early, but sometimes a little patience is warranted.
17:31
I find my best in-game bets typically, not counting like quarter bets and stuff like that, but, but for full game bets, happen maybe five to six minutes into the second quarter.
17:41
I've seen enough of the game, I've seen enough drives, I've seen, you know, defensively, offensively both team, and now I can make a, a, a pretty good, uh, calculation.
17:49
So be careful jumping to conclusions too quickly, which I call a premature physiculation. Well said. And by the way, the man knows of what he speaks with in-game betting.
17:58
He had a 187 unit to the positive college basketball season, all one unit bets. Is that good? It happened. It happened. No, some were less than one unit, actually. Oh, there you go.
18:08
That's right, some were less than one unit. But certainly not doing the two unit, three unit thing. That's how he got there. Not doing the shtick- That's right... lock that many in the tout game do.
18:18
[laughs] The shtick lock. Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. What are you talking about? Do you mean the, "I know I'm down the last two weeks, but I've got my 10 star whale lock of the year."
18:26
Schticklach, not related to kreplach, which is very tasty, I think. Uh, Felika, speaking of our friends, he, uh, he called, uh, what'd he say? Seattle AL West with easy schedule you like or don't like?
18:40
I, I think they're, I, I don't know if you're getting enough 'cause I haven't looked at the schedule of the other teams, but, uh- Easiest remaining schedule in baseball...
18:46
I like the idea- Easiest remaining schedule in baseball. I, 19 out of 22 against the Angels and the Athletics. That's like if I played tennis and scheduled- There we go... Gilly Alexander- There we go...
18:56
then Stevie Fezzik- There we go. [laughs]... then Gilly Alexander, then Stevie Fezzik- Yes... then Gilly Alexander- Yes... on the road, then at home Gilly Alexander, then Stevie Fezzik at home.
19:03
[laughs] It would be just endless Ws over and over, and that seems to be what, what we're looking at here possibly. Uh, mean-spirited and uncalled for is how I would characterize that last response. Uh, okay.
19:14
By the way, folks, uh, Gilly Alexander was arguing with me the other day that he's- Oh... super competitive with me when in the last six sets we've played- No one cares... he, he won a total of eight games.
19:25
6-1, 6-1, 6-4, 6-1, 6-0, 6-0. And we've now installed for the match in September when I get over there in a couple weeks, we've installed me over one and a half Gilly games in a best two out of three match.
19:40
So if I beat him 6-0, 6-1, I win the bet. If I don't, I lose the bet. Stevie Fezzik already betted at Novig at -118. Are you done? Over. Well, let me know when you continue. And Chris Felika and me are on the under.
19:52
Yeah. I, I wanna know what happened in that oth- that one set. 6-4. Because I've, all these games get to deuce and then I mentally crumble. That was the one time I didn't mentally crumble.
20:01
Kelly, do you really believe every game gets to deuce? Not every, but they mostly do. Do you really believe that too? [laughs] They mostly get to deuce. He, he can laugh, but he knows it's true.
20:09
Well, then Todd's the most incredible clutch player ever. Yeah. Okay. Um, you, now I'm not so sad about bringing this up, you took it in the keister in a WNBA thing, as you would say.
20:18
Wings over 56 and a half team total the other day. Oh, God. Um, let's discuss those seriously the money management, the, the psychological aspect of this 'cause you, you handle it well.
20:28
I, I think that w- something we don't talk about enough in gambling is you have periods where you're making good bets and you're just taking keister shot after keister shot, and you can't win.
20:39
It's like I was on fire in WNBA. I was up about 22 units. I could do no wrong. Now I'm only up, like, six units 'cause I just keep taking...
20:47
I've probably made a bunch of bad bets too, but I've also taken some hellacious beats. The Dallas Wings had 56 points in the first quarter and the first six minutes of the second quarter. 56, guys.
21:01
If you watch WNBA, 56 and a half is absurd. 56 in the first 16 minutes is beyond absurd, and I needed a half a point in the last four minutes, and they didn't get there.
21:13
They scored zero in the la- including a girl on the last possession one foot away from, [laughs] from a bunny, and she missed it.
21:21
So I guess the point that I, I wou- I would make, and I'm, I'm not always great at this, but sometimes there's always this thing to, like, "Oh, well maybe I should up my bets now because sooner or later I'm gonna stop getting these terrible beats," you know?
21:34
And doing something out of the ordinary when you're in one of these bad runs to try to make back all at once your, your bad beats or your bad bets, and I feel like it's not the way to go.
21:46
And you know, I've, I've made the mistake many, many times in the past, and I, it's not like I never make the mistake even now, but it's just something to remember.
21:54
The, the beats will stop, but if you force it, it can, it sometimes it can just really snowball.
22:00
So don't up your bets to two u- If you're, like, a, a $100 bettor, you know, don't start betting two and 300 because you went on a losing streak, you wanna get it back.
22:08
Just take your time, make good bets, keep betting your $100 a game.
22:13
It will come back, but you have to stay calm because a lotta times also if you jump it up, you're not thinking straight because now you're, you're trying to be too fine and too careful and stuff like that as well.
22:25
So I think it's something we don't talk about too much.
22:28
I don't know if you talk about it that much, Gilly, but i, I think it's something we don't talk about enough in the world of gambling is to keep cool and remain calm. I'd agr- I would agree with that.
22:38
We would get to multiple more topics here, but since Todd needed to spend a minute acting like he was Vitas Gerulaitis, a regular Ilie Nastase, we can only get to one more topic. Let's talk about the, uh- [laughs]...
22:48
the individual, uh, K at bats. I was watching Ilie Nastase Connors on YouTube, 1972 at Wimbledon the other day. It was fantastic. Uh, what is this you wanna talk about with, uh, individual batters and Ks?
23:00
Luzardo versus Ward, and, uh, you said the wisdom if they're in the lineup. What do you, what do you mean? Patrick Wisdom. Patrick Wisdom. Oh, Patrick Wisdom.
23:07
Um, so s- so, so some of the, I've been doing decently on these individual at bats to K, to strike out guys, and, uh, you know, you're, i- it's usually, like, there's six different offers, and usually that means that the vig on those is a terrible bet, right?
23:24
Usually when you have s- that many offers in a particular, you know, sportsbook, it's usually bad.
23:28
But I think sometimes if you can target in on certain guys who have horrendous, uh, strikeout numbers against a particular pitcher, for example, today Ward has faced him 10 times, has faced Luzardo 10 times.
23:42
He's struck out seven times. Patrick Wisdom has faced him 14 times. He's struck out nine times. There's, they're not gonna make these guys -160 to strike out. The worst you're gonna see is, like, -110.
23:53
There's most, most of the time it's plus money, right? So you're [laughs] not gonna see, like, -110, and sometimes they just can't adjust enough.
23:59
It's almost like an algorithm in an in-game scenario where they just can't adjust enough. So it's something to keep an eye on, especially if Luzardo looks like he has good stuff today. Thank you, Toddy. Appreciate it.
24:09
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:19
The Circus Survivor documentary is heating up, and tonight's episode is called The Hedge 49 survivors, $18.7 million, and now the hedge with weeks 14 through 16 delivering the final stretch before the Christmas slate.
24:32
The psychology of the contest reaches a fever pitch. Who takes the money? Who rolls the dice?
24:37
We go deep inside the minds of the contestants still standing, exploring the impossible decisions that come with life-changing sums on the line. Watch the next episode.
24:45
That's the next episode, tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern on VSIN. If you need to catch up, all episodes are on YouTube right now for the Circus Survivor doc.
24:51
Just search VSIN Live, and maybe, just maybe, Kelly Bidlin will make an appearance on this show. Oh, I was. I, I was, like, half the last episode. I don't know about this one.
25:02
Can I just read this one, this one tweet we got from somebody? Yeah. This is from, uh, LBC2K1. "Every time I watch Kelly on VSIN, all I see is Seth Rogen. He looks, sounds, and acts just like him. I can't unsee it."
25:16
As you know, I've been getting this a lot more recently. You- A lot more... I don't think you look like him though. So I don't think so either.
25:22
What, what, what I tweeted back was, I, I'm okay with anybody saying all of that. If like, like, if you hear me, I get it. I'm loud. Like, w- I'm loud, obnoxious, over the top. I get it. I, I get it. [laughs] I get it.
25:34
Like, s- I, I get it. Seth Rogen's like that too. Whenever s- anybody brings up Charlie Day, I get it too. But like- Oh, yeah... the, the, like, ice.
25:40
When people, um, people have come up to me in casinos and asked me if I am Seth Rogen. Come on. That has happened twice. You, you should put on the Seth Rogen voice in response. I can't do the laugh.
25:51
All you have to do is the laugh. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, he is making the, uh, I don't know if this is his first appearance on this show. Certainly the first since, uh, when I've been here. I think so, yeah.
25:59
I think it's his first ever appearance on this show. Uh, he is the content manager over at fourforfour.com, BetSperts Golf. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at Ry Noonan.
26:08
That's R-Y Noonan, the, uh, the famous shout-out on, from Caddyshack is actually his last name. It's Ryan Noonan joining the show, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Ryan? Nice to be here, guys.
26:20
Uh, pleasure to meet you. Yeah, I've been on other, uh, VSIN shows, uh, over the years, but never, never here with you fellas, so I appreciate it.
26:27
I, and funny, Gil, I have a Uncle Danny who was, uh, a amateur golf champion back in '79 and '80- Oh, wow... uh, back in New Hampshire. So he was, he was peak- [laughs]...
26:38
uh, Danny Noonan during the, uh, Danny Noonan release of, uh, Caddyshack.
26:42
So, uh, he's a stick, lots of stories, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's a dated reference that, uh, fewer and fewer understand these days, but I appreciate you- I-... uh- Yeah... understanding it.
26:51
I'm sure his friends didn't kill him- Yeah. [laughs]... with that back then. Oh my God.
26:55
All right, Ryan, well, since you bring up golf first, let's actually start with golf 'cause you do a lot of golf, you do a lot of NFL. Um, you do like a couple golfers this week, um, and you also like a top 10 bet.
27:06
What do you got? Yeah, Tour Championship, kind of a weird end of the season. I'm excited that the tour has, uh, been pretty active of making sure that they change the process as we move forward.
27:18
Uh, this is East Lake Country Club in Atlanta, which we go to often for this, but it got a complete facelift.
27:24
We see a lot of, like, renovations that come up over the years, and they, like, do a little here and there to the course.
27:29
This place got tip to tails peeled back, back in 2024, so I wouldn't lean on a lot of course history. I think playing from the fairway is gonna matter a lot, Gil. This got pretty unpredictable, thick Bermuda rough.
27:40
Uh, this is a long par 70 course, so I'm looking for guys that really control the golf ball off the tee this week.
27:46
So that starts for me with Collin Morikawa, uh, actually led the field last week in distance from the edge of the fairway, which is a, a significantly better accuracy stat than, like, binary greens or fairways hit.
27:59
Like, fairway hit is, like, yes or no, right? Where distance from the edge of the fairway tells us a little bit more of, like, keeping your ball in play, controlling the golf ball. Love this for Morikawa.
28:08
He's absolutely dialed on approach still. Uh, you know, putting is hit or miss. He's not a great Bermuda putter per se, but he's gonna keep himself in play, uh, which we really want this week too.
28:17
The other is Tom Kim, a little bit further down the board. Very similar stylistic, uh, playing style from Collin Morikawa. He's gonna keep the ball in play off the tee, great long irons player.
28:28
He's actually a tremendous Bermuda grass putter. So I like Tom Kim.
28:32
You could probably get a, you know, pretty solid Tom Kim finishing position bet too if you wanted to, you know, kind of avoid the top of the board and you're worried about Scotty or Rory, for instance.
28:40
But Tom Kim, 48s, 50s are out there.
28:43
Uh, it's a good week for each ways too, if you happen to have access to each way betting, uh, where you can kind of cover some more positions this week since we're dealing with a truncated 30-man field.
28:51
I like those guys in the outright market. Yeah. All right. Oh, you li- Yeah... and you like the Collin Ku- you're on Morikawa as well. I'm on Morikawa. Yeah. I think Tom Kim's a great long shot option.
28:59
I'm with you, I'm with you on both those, Ryan. I, I'll ask you, so obviously I'm on, I'm on Morikawa too, so those guys aren't winning. So who's gonna win this week?
29:06
This is the last golf tournament of the season we can bet. Who's gonna win this week that you're gonna regret the most? Oh man, uh, you know, my data and the modeling I did this week loves Patrick Cantlay. Yeah.
29:18
Um, I'm never making that click, Kelly. I'm never making that click when he's, you know, i- in the 30s and 40s where he spent most of the summer.
29:26
He is admittedly playing tremendous golf, which is why, uh, you know, the recency of the modeling likes him quite a bit.
29:31
He actually fairly nice history here, but again, as I kind of touched on at the top, I'm just really not leaning on course history here because this is a, a really different venue.
29:39
I- in terms of where they are, where they're at, uh, it's the same place. But in terms of how it plays, I do think it differs a little bit from some of the historic East Lake stuff.
29:47
So Cantlay would be a guy that I would be frustrated that I didn't trust my numbers, and I, you know, made a personal subjective play to a- avoid and, uh, ignore him, but, uh, that would be annoying.
29:58
Copyright violation on the question, five cents in the till, please. Mm-hmm. Uh, top 10, Viktor Hovland, you say you like? Yeah, I like Hovland, Gil.
30:06
He, you know, another guy that really good ball striker, keeps the ball in play off the tee. Uh, he has the distance to get it done here. This is a place that's really mitigated around the green play.
30:14
If you look at the leaderboard last year, the, the guys that were towards the top, you know, they were towards the bottom of the week in strokes gained around the green.
30:21
When Hovland's off, uh, it's when he has to rely on scrambling and chipping, uh, really- We don't like him in those weeks.
30:28
Actually, and also he's better when we have shorter shaved runoffs around the greens instead of, like, the thick aprons, and that's what we have here with the remodel. So it's a good spot for Holland.
30:35
Another great Bermuda putter, too. So, uh, don't like the outright price per se. I think it's a little too short, but I would imagine he's in the mix.
30:42
So top five with ties, top 10 with ties, I think he mixes this weekend. All right, let's get to as many season-long NFLs as we can.
30:49
Let's start with the hotly contested NFC North, where the Lions are favored to win the division, and then, you know, pick, obviously the market has it one way, but a lot of people have a lot of opinions.
30:59
What is the team you landed on as a bet to win that division? I like the five to one, uh, Vikings number. Uh, I, I think this team is... I mean, look, coaching is tremendous.
31:12
I do think that we have a pretty decent historical outlier of Kevin O'Connell. Kind of been, I'd say, a kingmaker, but like, you know, we've resurrected some pretty solid careers here.
31:20
Really, JJ, unfortunately, seems to be kind of the only outlier that hasn't really been able to figure it out over, under O'Connell's, uh, coaching there. Uh, nine and eight with all the mess that they had last year.
31:32
Really opportunistic defense, which I love.
31:34
I think Flores, I think having a game plan for a Flores defense, especially outside the division where you don't see it all the time, I think gives them a little bit of an advantage week in and week out.
31:44
Uh, Kyler obviously has some questions, but I just have some concerns a little bit with Green Bay, uh, their defensive depth, their offensive line issues, that there's so much natural regression that I think we're expecting on the Chicago side.
31:57
They can kind of plow through that, and again, if they're gonna wanna score 42 points a game, they might need to. Uh, but I think that there's some regression there.
32:04
And I have concerns about the, the secondary for Detroit too. I think they're gonna have to beat people, uh, you know, by running up the score.
32:12
I think that gets a little less, uh, a little harder to do when we get to the playoff time.
32:15
So yeah, I think it's a tough, interesting early slate for Minnesota, but I think if they get off to a good start, they do have Green Bay and Chicago to start. I think it'd have to be a really nice start.
32:24
I think I like over eight and a half wins, and I think five to one to win this division is a pretty good price. Okay, this has gone well so far, but now we're treading into, uh, murky waters here.
32:32
NFC East, who you got to win the division there? I kind of like the vibes of what's going on in Dallas. Wow.
32:38
The problem with Dallas that I think we all, all agree, is that we naturally pay a little bit of a Dallas tax, uh, just because they are such a public team, and typically we'll find that I like them, but my numbers don't necessarily line up with where I think their prices are.
32:53
But two to one to win this division, like I, I, again, the vibes are, are a tough way to handicap something. There just always seems to be something off with this Sirianni-Hurts situation going on.
33:04
I'm worried about the ceiling of their offense. Defense is gonna be solid without a doubt. But I'm, I'm interested in, like, the Christian Parker thing that they have going on there, bringing him over from Philly.
33:14
It's not widely available, but some books will offer, like, assistant coach of the year. I think Christian Parker, like, 18 to one is a pretty good stab.
33:22
Maybe if you're interested in, you know, again, not a, a clean derivative of a good Dallas season, but I think another way to say, "Hey, uh, maybe there's a chance they win this division or they're gonna be in the mix," I think Christian Parker is a good kind of, uh, caveat there.
33:36
Again, the ceiling on the offense, if they stay healthy, they're gonna be able to run the football, uh, you know, with the dynamic receivers that they have here. I think there's just a lot to like here.
33:44
Just a, a ton of... They don't, they haven't replaced, like, a single edge rusher that's dominant to bring in anything on, like, the Mark, Michael Parsons side, but they have depth along the defensive line.
33:54
Uh, and I think you really need that to be competitive, and I think they have four or five guys that can contribute. So I'm in on Dallas this year.
34:00
Uh, the Christian Parker call, uh, sort of reflects that you, you do a lot of stuff with defensive stats. You focus a great deal on defense.
34:08
Just curious, on your way out here, defensive rookie of the year where you don't have stats for these guys on the pro level, do you have a thought in this market?
34:17
Yeah, I think it obviously ends up being a little bit, uh, typically it's been top of the board's done very well. Last year was an outlier where we hit a 60 to one, 66 to one Carson Schwesinger.
34:27
Uh, again, 'cause I think we wanna look at, like, high-end edge rushers, and we have some this year. I think some more that were, that are better and more likely to have good seasons.
34:36
But deep down the board, there's a couple of names, uh, kind of a similar model to the, uh, Schwesinger play last year. Jay Sean Barum in Dallas, uh, you can find 150 to ones on this guy, uh- Ooh...
34:47
to be defensive rookie of the year. Also, Kaleb Elarms-Orr probably gonna win the linebacker two job in Buffalo. These guys are gonna play island games. They're gonna contribute. They're gonna compile some stats.
34:58
Those are triple digits in that market, and I think there's, uh, those guys should be probably closer to, like, 50 to one. Can't thank you enough, Ryan. Appreciate it. Great stuff. Appreciate it, guys.
35:08
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:23
Great spot from Ryan Noonan over at, uh, fourforfour.com, BetSports Golf.
35:29
Um, I'll repeat his NFL plays at the end of the segment, 'cause I know those came quick, and the names were a little tricky for some folks, so we'll get to that. Yeah. First, the tweets.
35:39
Uh, James Fessler, "An im- a, uh, an import caveat," oh, "important caveat to the AL Championship Series odds that we were talking about earlier," says, "number one seed plays the, uh, four-five wild card winner, essential that, essentially that is T- uh, Tampa Bay, New York, Boston in some order.
35:54
So there's value somewhere in the Central West teams since they missed the, uh, missed those three in a five-game series." Yeah, and for the reasons we stated as well, right?
36:02
Where it's, again, getting to the championship series.
36:06
Right now, some of the second-place teams in those divisions have the promise of still getting a buy, and so that's where it's pricing, and those gravitate towards the Central and West teams as well.
36:16
Uh, Poke Therapy, "Megapod week one has to be latest Wednesday as football starts a day early this year." Yes, we know. We know. Either Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday of that week.
36:25
Uh, Bobby Geddes, "Yesterday on the show, Jeff Erickson mentioned Christopher Harris. I've mentioned him to you guys before. Couldn't agree with Jeff more.
36:31
He watches every minute of every game and has a 200-plus page almanac." With over 250 player profiles, much more fantasy based, but he dabbles with the betting side as well. Would be a fun guest.
36:39
We gotta get him on as well. Yeah, uh, Harris Football. Yeah. He's done great stuff for years, yeah. Brian Point Shaver, "Jeez, guys, I didn't know you had Boris Becker on the show earlier." [laughs] Yeah, I know, right?
36:48
Todd Wishnev with a very, how could I put this, skewed impression- [laughs]... of the prowess of his tennis game. Just wanna point that out. Yeah, man. This guy thinks he's...
36:59
He's, he's, he's a regular Guillermo Vilas, this guy. Colin Murphy, "A little behind, but my cousin's last name is Tracy, and he married a girl named Tracy, so my cousin's wife's name is Tracy Tracy." Oh, that's awesome.
37:11
That's awesome. Totally awesome. It's awesome that he had an uncle named Danny Noonan right in the heart of the Kenny Shaff years. That's incredible, actually. Yeah.
37:19
And y- y- like you said, can you even imagine walking around? Y- I, I would just think- Noonan... [laughs] what, what are the chances? How unlucky did I have to be? Danny. Uh, okay, tennis today.
37:30
Ignacio Busse minus 120 versus Daniel Altmaier. Sebastian Baez minus 148 versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. And then Botic van de Zandschulp minus 147 versus Luciano Darderi.
37:40
Those are all at Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on the campus of Wake Forest University in the Fakta tournament that precedes the US Open. That's where they play it too? Yeah. On campus? On Wa- at Wake, yeah.
37:51
Uh- Do, like, students get free tickets? I, I do not know. That'd be kinda cool, actually. That would be cool. Except it's August and they're not there. Uh- I don't... And it's late August. Yeah, maybe.
37:59
I think school has started. Yeah, maybe they showed up. Yeah, you're right. Uh, Iga to win the US Open 7 to 1, Carlos Alcaraz to win the US Open +175. Those are the only, uh, futures at the Open so far.
38:09
We will get the draw. Hopefully we'll get quarters here lickety-split after the draw is announced on Thursday. NFL, mentioned these yesterday. Season long is Nick Bonino, Defensive Player of the Year, 14 to 1.
38:19
Caleb, Caleb Williams, passing yards leader, 20 to 1. Classes began on Monday, so if you go, if you attend Wake Forest and you're listening to this show and you're not at, on campus, get there quick.
38:30
You think the average, like, sophomore at Wake Forest knows who Botic van de Zandschulp is? Dude, the, the BV-de-Z? Yeah. Yeah, of course he does. All right, what do you got here, sir?
38:40
Uh, Matus Pozzel is to win Most Improved Player. Talked about this yesterday, 40 to 1. That is in the National Basketball Association. Thank you for stipulating- [laughs]... for folks And, oh, he plays for the- Yeah...
38:49
Bulls of Chicago. Uh-huh. Uh, in the Eastern Conference. [laughs] Uh, then I do have one preseason week three play I made.
38:57
Uh, made this after I got a little confirmation from my good friend Adam Burke, who wrote about his preseason we- uh, week three preseason bets at vsan.com today. I'm gonna go Cowboys money line.
39:08
Uh, they are go- they are o- 2 and 0 going up against the 0 and 2 Saints. Plus 31 point p- uh, point differential for the Cowboys so far this preas- preseason. Minus 38 for the New Orleans Saints.
39:21
So lot of Joe Milton, Sam Howell. Might be an audition for Sam Howell looking for another job. Think he gets a lot of playing time like the Cowboys this week. Joe Milton, strongest arm I've ever seen.
39:30
He's fun to watch, isn't he? Mm-hmm. You got some golf? Oh, golf. Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa outrights for me this week.
39:36
Then it is top five and top 10 on Xander, a top 10 on Collin Morikawa, and then the only one I didn't get to, top 10 on Patrick Cantlay.
39:44
Like Ryan Noonan just talked about, he has been ridiculously good the past few weeks. I don't know if he knows where the ball's going, but he's the strongest arm I've ever seen. Uh, Will Hill. Yeah, correct, correct.
39:53
Orioles today at the Cardinals. Will's on the, on the O's. Cubs even money at the Diamondbacks. He's on the Cubbies. Uh, Mariners to win the AL West from Willie at +185.
40:01
And then college football, Carolina TCU is going under 47 and a half. USC team total over 48 and a half versus the Spar- ans of San Jose State.
40:10
And then NC State, he's taking the six on the Wolfpack, uh, versus the Virginia Wahoos. Now, uh, Ryan Noonan, who was just on with us. Okay. Collin Morikawa to win the Tour Championship 21 to 1.
40:21
Tom Kim also to win the Tour Championship at 49 to 1. Those are his two outrights. Then he's got Viktor Hovland top 10 this weekend +158. Remember, field is 30 golfers. Vikings to win the NFC North at +510.
40:33
Cowboys to win the NFC East at +205. Now, he mentioned Christian Parker, the Cowboys defensive coordinator, as a, uh, perhaps a...
40:41
I don't know if he said it in these terms, but sounded like he was favor- Assistant Coach of the Year... favoring a bet in the Assistant Coach of the Year market, if you can find that. 18 to 1 to bet 365 right now.
40:50
18 to 1 to bet 365, says Kelly Bidlow. And then these are the, these are the hard names for people. Good, what, he did it quickly. But for Defensive Rookie of the Year, he went with two bombs, and I do mean bombs.
41:04
For the Cowboys, Jaylon Barham, 150 to 1. Jaylon Barham, B-A-R-H-A-M, 150 to 1. And then on the Buffalo Billiards, he went with Caleb Elarms-Orr. That's Elarms, E-L-A-R-M-S, hyphen O-R-R.
41:21
200 to 1 for Defensive Rookie of the Year. How about that? From Ryan Noonan. I like those. I like that thinking in this market. I mean, we had a very, very long shot win this la- just last year, so. Yeah.
41:33
Both of those, both of those guys for their, uh, respective teams are number two on the, uh, depth chart at linebacker. There you go. And then I did wanna bring up... It was Abdul Carter he said, right? Oh, yes.
41:47
Thank you. Yeah. Thank you. 'Cause he, 'cause he does, Ryan does a lot of, a- and we'll probably have him on again during the season, but he does a lot of his tackle and sack props week to week, uh, for games.
41:56
But, uh, I know he's had a few of these, not as many as I was expecting heading into the season. But for season long stats, he said his favorite sack prop was over on the seven and a quarter for Abdul Carter.
42:07
He had him projected at over 10. Yes. That was his favorite over under sack prop of anybody. Abdul Carter over seven and a half. Now, he did chime in also on this most regular season sacks.
42:19
Kelly and I were doing head to heads earlier, uh, on the show. We didn't get to sacks head to head, and I'll sort of give Ryan's thoughts on, on, on, on all these.
42:27
Uh, Daniil Hunter versus Will Anderson Jr., two teammates with the, uh, Houston Texans who many people may not recall, again, especially bettors who- Mm-hmm... didn't have a bet in this market.
42:37
Daniil Hunter actually ended up with more sacks than Will Anderson last year. Daniil Hunter had 15, Will Anderson Jr.
42:44
had 12 Will, uh, Danielle Hunter is at minus one 30 here head-to-head with Will Anderson Jr., most regular season sacks head-to-head. Um, Ryan just, he, he just said he kind of agrees with that number. Yeah.
42:55
He actually had Hunter better, and he was surprised that the market had him, but he agrees with that number. I'm surprised the market's like this just 'cause W- just 'cause Will Anderson, what are we talking about?
43:05
Co-favorite or second on the board for- Yeah... defensive, uh, Defensive Player of the Year? Yeah. I mean, it's 130 to even money. All right. But Hunter sort of benefits on this, in the sack category.
43:13
No, he totally does. Yeah. Uh- I mean, great duo... and then the battle of the Sweatts, Josh Sweat versus Montez Sweat. Keith Sweat not pictured. Josh Sweat is minus 140 versus Montez Sweat.
43:25
So Josh Sweat of the Cardinals, Montez Sweat of the Bears. Skin's great, Montez Sweat. Josh Sweat's minus 140. Ryan Noonan just said value on Montez Sweat at plus 110, though. He likes the dog in that one.
43:41
Trey Hendrickson minus 150 versus Max Crosby at plus 120. Remember, this was the, "Hey, Max Crosby is going to be a, uh, is gonna be a Bengal. Oh, guess what?
43:51
No, you're not a Ben- Oh, no, he was gonna be a Raven, right?" Yeah. "Oh, no, guess what? You're not gonna be a Raven. You're going to be still with the Raiders." Trey Hendrickson ends up being the Raven in the end.
44:01
That's why these two are cleverly paired. He actually agreed with this number. He has Trey Hendrickson as the favorite over Max Crosby as well. So the one of those three that he really likes is Montez Sweat at plus 110.
44:12
He thinks the others are properly priced. And then he had no opinion, obviously, on the two rookies. Reuben Bane Jr. versus David Baily. Reuben Bane Jr. of the Bucs, David Baily of the Jets. Reuben Bane Jr.
44:22
is at minus 130. Did we see that a little injury came down for Reuben Bane Jr.? Did I imagine that this morning? No, you did not.
44:27
I don't, I don't think it was serious, but he didn't- I don't think it was serious either... he didn't mention it But yeah, some- something happened. Um, a C joint injury for Reuben Bane Jr., so, so- Oh, that's right.
44:35
Danny and I were talking about it, uh- Thank you, Danny... before the show. So hopefully not, uh, hopefully not serious. Not believed to be serious.
44:40
Former professional quarterback Danny Higgins, though, did point out that it's something that can linger with you for a while. Yeah. Well, let's hope not for the Bucs' sake. Let's hope not for Reuben Bane Jr.'s sake.
44:51
But he had no opinion on those two rookies. Uh, Bane Jr. minus 130 versus David Baily.
44:56
He didn't have an opinion on that, but he did have an opinion, again, on Defensive [laughs] Rookie of the Year with those two bombs, which I, uh- Yeah... which I like. Um- So.
45:04
So of all of those head-to-heads, the one that sounded to me like you liked the most was A.J. Brown over DeVonta Smith for receiving yards. There were a few I liked. Hold on. There were a few I liked.
45:13
I think that was my favorite, though. The one we didn't do was receiving touchdowns, by the way. We skipped over that one. He's, A.J. Brown is way bigger of a favorite receiving touchdowns over DeVonta.
45:23
He's two do- he's a $2 favorite in touchdowns. Yeah, that, that makes sense. Yeah. That makes sense. I'd still, I would bet him in the yardage one. I still think he finishes with more yardage. A.J.
45:32
Brown had seven touchdowns- I-... yeah, last year with the Eagles. DeVonta had four. I don't know, man. I really liked the Kenneth Walker one, too.
45:40
Again, the, going to the bottom, though, Justin Jefferson and George Pickens is a coin flip. Jefferson had two receiving touchdowns last year. Pickens had nine. Yeah, give me Jefferson. Yeah. Bounce back.
45:51
Kyler's there now. He's got a real quarterback. What could go wrong? What could go wrong? Easy. Thank you, sir. Well done today. Hey, well done by you. Well done, Danny Higgins. Well done, everybody behind the glass.
46:00
Prop Points is next. Enjoy from Visa Vs. Sports Betting.
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