Search
Login
Sign Up
Aug 27, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
1×
Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take it us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's my man, Kelly Bidlin. What's up, bro?
0:21
What's happening? Not much, just chilling. Yeah? Yeah. Drew Dinsick about to join us. Yeah. Talk, uh, US Open and National Football League with us.
0:30
Michael Monosono, Circa Booby prize winner back in 2020, uh, to give, uh, three college football plays and a couple NFL thoughts as well, and bets. And then Paul Spohor a little later on will talk Major League Baseball.
0:42
The White Sox did it again, by the way. Led after five, lost the game. I gotta get, I gotta get an updated tally from Borchard as to how many double results the White Sox have had.
0:54
We're gonna show a tweet that is just amazing about the White Sox a little later on. Wh- what's it, what's it at least? Like, do you, do you know a number- Oh... of what we're up to at least with the double results?
1:03
It is around tw- it, it is approaching 20, I want to say. That's insane. That is insane. Don't hold me to that. We'll find out later. Okay. Yeah. We'll find out later. But it's- Put you on the spot, sorry...
1:13
but the point being that the, the average price of those throughout the year has been close to seven to one. So if you just pl- if you just played that double result, by the way, they lead after five, they lose the game.
1:27
If you played it blindly every single game of the season, that alone, forget your losses on all the other, the one unit you'd lose on all the others, but you would've gotten like seven units on all this.
1:39
So you'd be up, way up on the season, even if you factored in all the losses at this point. Which is crazy. So this is from James Fagan. This is, okay, White Sox lost to the Tigers last night 6 to 3.
1:49
Tigers rookie Ty Madden made his debut despite a 7.97 ERA triple A. How does that happen? So they're like, "Yeah, you're g- just gonna play the White Sox, so we'll just throw you in here anyway."
1:58
He allowed one earned run over five innings. Then the bullpen, it should be noted last night, they blow their 31st save of the year, the White Sox pen blows their 31st... Think about that.
2:09
The White Sox bullpen has blown 31 saves. [laughs] Like- Um, they are now 31, their full record, 31 and 101, 70 games under. 70.
2:23
31 and 101, and they're 3 and 33 versus- Oh my gosh... division opponents Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota. How is that? I, I actually think that last line is the most mind-blowing.
2:36
How are you that bad against your division? Someone responded, "Every single one of those lines is more mind-blowing than the previous." Right. It really is. [laughs] That's just incredible.
2:45
I mean, what, so they could, they could really have double their amount of wins than what they have, or almost. They, they're on pace to, to set the record here for the worst...
2:54
There's again, there's the worst winning percentage record of all time, which is like the Philadelphia Athletics, uh, back in the early part of the 20th century, and then there's the worst 162 game schedule,
3:06
uh, record, which is 40 and 102 by the early s- by an early '60s version of the Mets. So they're, they're going for it, baby. 3 and 33, wow. [laughs] 3 and 33 versus- Wow... Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota. Yeah.
3:20
So what does that mean? The thing, you know what the thing is? You know why Cleveland is left out of that? 'Cause they actually beat Cleveland several times. Oh, that's g- Yeah, that's right. That's right. Yeah.
3:28
I'm sure we talked about that before. Don't I know it, 'cause what was that? Not March, April, but May.
3:32
That's what, that's what torpedoed the Cleveland bet in the month of May, 'cause they lost to the White Sox twice or something like that.
3:38
I just, I, y- even when we first brought up that, like, that bet, the double result kind of bet, like- Yeah... you, w- I would've never thought we would've been sitting here at this point on August 27th- [laughs]...
3:50
still talking about it being a thing, you know what I mean? You just like, it- People-... something like that usually doesn't play out the entirety of the season.
3:57
Sports utility's amazing, but particularly over a 162 game schedule, and there's no reason to believe anything will change here from now to the end. Um, tennis plays, can I do that before we- Yep...
4:07
we talk about the guide here? Uh, tennis plays, this has been the, again, the strangest 202- 2024 has been the strangest tennis season.
4:15
It has been complete streaks of awesomeness followed by complete streaks of futility. Uh, my own personal futility in these. Um, massive hard court season early, then, uh, clay was unlucky. Grass was terrible.
4:30
Then the Olympics clay and the begi- re- restart of hard court was fantastic, and then I just had the worst streak ever last week. Um, and then yesterday we have the, the, uh, walkover.
4:44
We were on our way to perhaps, perhaps hitting a $3 dog on, uh, uh, against Sacckyri yesterday on Yifan Wang, and so Sacckyri then quits, and so we don't get that up.
4:55
Now, if you did have it, if it was graded at shops where you only needed one set to complete, you were a winner there, and yesterday was actually just a tick of a loss, just barely.
5:04
Uh, but if you didn't have that and you had it for a full grade, uh, it was just sort of an awful day after that, and that's usually how it goes.
5:10
Like, oh, we were about to win this big thing and it didn't work out through no fault of our own. Oh, watch this. We lost a five setter and a tiebreaker and that kind of thing as well.
5:18
Today, uh, this is a weird day in terms of betting lines. I ended up with five, three on the men's side, two on the ladies' side, and they're all dogs. They're all dogs. Um, on the men's side,
5:31
should I give you a shot at these? [laughs] Yeah, yes, please. All right. Please, yes, please. Men's side, go. Tristan Schoolkate- That's correct... o- over Taro Daniel. That's right.
5:39
Where, where's Tristan from, Great Britain or Australia? Australia. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that's really a fate of Taro Daniel, who's been terrible. Okay. All right? All right.
5:47
And then we got Jakub Menzik over Felix Auger-Aliassime, or Jacob. Um, Mensik, Auger-Aliassime, sure. Jakub or Jacob? Jakub. Okay. Hey, I got that part right. Plus 263.
5:57
Jakub Mensik, Mensik was a guy we s- we hit a lot in the early hard court season early this year. Um, plus 263, so we're counting on the magic to come back today on him. And then boom, Felika. Yeah, I can spell it.
6:08
I did it again in the graphic. [laughs] That's right. Learner Tien plus 240 over O- Arthur Fils.
6:16
Lerner Tien, who's a young American who was great at Winston-Salem last week, plus 240 over the, uh, Frenchman Arthur Fille. Yeah. Eva Lys, plus 195 over Maria Bouzková. I'm gonna go Eva Lys there. Okay. Plus 195. Sure.
6:28
Bouzková I know. Uh-huh. Okay, this one. Uh, Varvara Lepchenko, plus 132 over Brenda... Oh, my gosh. Fr- Fruhvirtova. Nailed it. Really? Uh, you sure. I just mumbled words. Plus [laughs] I just mumbled letters. Yeah.
6:42
Just s- sounds came out of your mouth. Fruhvirtova. [laughs] Uh, that's Linda Fruhvir- uh, Fruhvirtova's, uh, sister, by the way. Sure. Lepchenko's numbers on, on hard courts are great. Plus 132 on Lepchenko.
6:52
So it's Skoolkate, Menchik, and Tien on the men's side. All big dogs. Uh, Lys and Lepchenko on the ladies' side. So we'll see what happens. By the way, I- you just watch that US Open, dude.
7:05
I want to be no place on earth rather than there. Yeah. It's really cool. The energy is unbelievable. I just wanna fly there and hang out in the stadium for two weeks. Yeah. Y- you're right, it's a...
7:17
The problem is, I don't know. I feel like all the tennis tournaments are bu- or all the Grand Slams are bucket list, uh, ones for me. Yes. But, like- This one, though... like, you always bring that up. Oh.
7:25
Australian Open's probably the most unlikely for me to ever go to, so I'll be okay. That's right. But I still think I'd have Wimbledon and French Open above- Me too... the US Open. Me too.
7:34
But that's part of, like, you know, international travel. Yeah, just awesome to watch S- Sabalenka against Priscilla Han last night, was unbelievable late tonight.
7:41
Sabalenka just pulverizing the tennis ball, and Han did nothing wrong. She was actually great, but she still got beat 6-3, 6-3. Uh, the other thing, the, uh, new NFL betting guide.
7:50
Our, our NFL betting guide addendum, part deux, is out now. This is a good idea. Whole bunch of new props are out- Yeah... from everybody here at the network, at VSiN. Uh, it's available for download now. Check it out.
8:02
Quickest way is to go to the website, vsin.com. Um, but I thought it'd be... By the way, it's the pro edition update we're calling it, the NFL betting guide pro edition update.
8:11
Um, week one betting systems, best bets, a lot of props from everybody with all explanations. Everybody does write-ups. Subscribe now at vsin.com/betting-guides. How about that? I, I was the first one to get my picks in.
8:23
That's all I'm gonna say. First one at the network. I might have been the last. It's not a race. I might have been the last. [laughs] Sorry, Adam Burke. It was probably the last.
8:30
[laughs] I'm always, I'm always apologizing to Adam. Sorry about the Guardians thing in March, April, and May too. Hope they, hope they make it okay. Uh, so I, you know, we thought it'd be... Well, not we.
8:38
I, I thought it'd be cool this morning, go back to the original one, which we did in June, and we have a grid where every VSiN, I'm not... It's, like, 20 deep of VSiN hosts. Yeah. Uh,
8:50
AF's, uh, every division winner we had a pick. Every wild card, three per conference, obviously. Then of course NFC, AFC champion, and Super Bowl champion.
8:58
And I wanna say, so I looked up ours, Kelly, and I wanna say, I don't wanna say it, I think this is true. You came out looking way cleaner than I did.
9:08
'Cause I have a couple in there where I'm like, "What was I thinking?" This was a, this was a- Did you drug me? This was a great idea by you, because there is absolutely...
9:16
So, so the whole idea, we're gonna go over what we, what we put in there. Yes. And what would we change now? What would we change? And I definitely have some changes as well. [laughs] I absolutely have one.
9:24
So, okay, let's do the NFC real quick. We both have Philly, uh, to win the division. I'm even down on Philly, and I still like that I have Philly. Yeah, no change there for me. I like the Eagles.
9:32
I have Green Bay, you have Detroit in the North. I don't love it, but I'm not changing that. Uh, we both have the Falcons in the South, and we both have the Niners in the West.
9:41
Uh, now when it comes to the wild card, uh, you went Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle, which is a great pick. I went Detroit, Dallas, and, you ready? The Washington Commanders.
9:51
'Cause I thought the NFC's gonna be, you know, it's not as good as the AFC. I gotta pick one outlier. I'll take Washington. But you know what? I'd rather have your Seattle at this point. So I regret that one.
10:01
That's more you coming around on Seattle, though. Correct. Right, yeah. Than, than you being- Correct... coming down on Washington.
10:06
That's l- that's talking myself into a Mike McDonald bet, you know, as Coach of the Year. That's just the thinking that their defense is gonna get better as the season goes on as he implements his system.
10:15
So I have a regret on the wild card. Shall we go to the AFC real quick? Mine's really chalky. Like, I just [laughs] Yeah. There's nothing wrong here. Yeah, yeah. Okay. AFC, [laughs] I think we're both nuts.
10:26
I'd like to make a change. [laughs] I think, are we both switching to the Jets? Yes. We're both switching to the Jets. I have the Dolphins, you have the Bills. Both switching to the Jets.
10:33
Yours is worse than mine, I think. Paint it green. Uh, both have the Bengals in the North. Okay. I have Jacksonville in the South, you have Houston.
10:41
I, I'm okay with that, 'cause again, these things don't, aren't a perfect graft, uh, uh, perfect- I'll stand by that one... graph upwards. I'll, I'll stick with Jacksonville.
10:47
Cincinnati, I, I honest- I don't know about at this point. I don't know either, but I'm not changing it. [laughs] Uh, like the AFC East, we gotta change. Uh, and then the West, we both have the Chiefs.
10:55
Wild cards, [laughs] oh, God. Kelly has Baltimore, Miami, and Indianapolis. Wait, can you go back to that, guys? Yeah. Uh, and I have, are you ready for this? Oh, boy. I should've just put the Colts to win the division.
11:06
I mean, like, they're e- they're either winning the division, or they're not making the playoffs. I have Baltimore, Houston, and are you ready for this? My worst call in June. Oh, boy. The Chargers. Wow.
11:15
What was I thinking? Yeah, you're right. I didn't notice that one before. That, that is the one I'm most surprised by. This was my year where I was like, "Well, this'll be my year to, to take the Chargers."
11:24
[laughs] Yeah, your year to be on the Chargers. So that's the one I regret the most. And then, and then, uh, conference and, uh, Super Bowl, if you could flash it up real quick, guys. Even these I regret.
11:32
I think I have the Bills. I have the, uh, the, I have the Chiefs and the Niners in the, uh, as, as the conference champions. You have the Bills [laughs] and the Eagles. I have the Niners winning it all.
11:43
You have the Eagles winning it all. The Chargers is the one I regret the most, and Washington, of course. Uh, we'll come back. Drew Dincic on the other side. Next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Back to the numbers game. Gil Alexander, Kelly Fidlin live from Bar Canada here at the D in downtown Las Vegas. Uh, he's kind enough to join us each and every Tuesday on the show for not one but two segments.
12:12
But keep in mind, next week is his week to, uh, take the wife out right before football season so that, uh, she sort of, uh, you know, is placated. I w- I'll, I'll use the word. [laughs] He doesn't have to use the word.
12:24
Placated, because what's coming is, of course, a football onslaught.
12:27
It's Drew Dincic, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line @whale_capper, co-host of the Deep Dive podcast with Andy Molator, and of course NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jake Croucher. What's happening, Drew?
12:37
Nothing bad. Uh, yeah, the, uh, the, you know, the football is in the air. You can feel it. Um- My numbers are done. I've watched as much preseason football as I have an appetite for at this point.
12:50
Um, I think most of my bets for week one are in. I don't know that I'm gonna get much more involved, uh, 'cause, like, there's n- not gonna be any kind of...
12:58
I don't think there's gonna be much in terms of market shift and, and news that really kind of moves the needle on any of these games.
13:04
So I think I'm, I'm, I'm pretty much ready for week one, and it's just a, a matter of now, um, you know, running out the clock here on the off-season.
13:12
Um, there's maybe one move that might matter that there's been in the air a little bit of a whiff of, and that's, uh, really just do the Raiders start the season with Davante Adams still on the roster.
13:24
Um, and, uh, you know, if he ends up on a contender, that would be fascinating and fun. That would be a fun splashy thing. But, um, other than that, I think we're, we're basically set here.
13:34
I'm glad you mentioned that you watched the whole preseason. Kelly and I just did a thing. We had a, uh, the VSiN NFL Betting Guide came out in June. We put it out- Wow...
13:42
super, super-duper early, and then we just did an addendum to it, uh, that came out today that, that is available for folks at vsin.com, um, vsin.com/betting-guide.
13:52
And we were just going through, which is there's a grid in June, okay, who we pick to win every division, that kind of thing. We're just going through how comical some of our plays were- [laughs]...
14:03
so, so many months ago, right? Before we had a chance to sort of like really dive into every team, uh, for some watch preseason.
14:10
And the ones that I regret the most, um, on the NFC side, instead of having Seattle as a wildcard, I thought I'd get frisky and I put Washington in, so I obviously regret that. Kelly and I both regret our AFC East plays.
14:23
Neither of us had the Jets. He had the Bills, I had the Dolphins. We now both wanna say Jets to win that, uh, to win that division.
14:30
And then the other one was, uh, I w- uh, apparently I was the guy who had the Chargers as one of [laughs] as one of the wild cards in the AFC. I deeply regret the pain that I've caused anybody by making that play.
14:43
I'm curious, do you have something? If you went back to Drew Dinsick June, do you have an opinion- [laughs]... do you have an opinion then that you look back on and you're like, "Man, I do not know what I was thinking"?
14:54
I am sure I have plenty of those, Gil. [laughs] I have plenty of those. But I am not bearing the cost of any of those because, uh, the month of June was, um, my bankroll was hurting.
15:07
I was coming off of three or four consecutive months of just getting my absolute tail kicked. Yeah. And I think almost...
15:15
I, I mean, most of the dollars to my name that I was willing to put into action betting were s- were sitting on Celtics waiting for that, uh, you know, Celtics futures to cash.
15:24
And so, um- Oh, basketball wasn't even done... you know, I was- Yeah. I know. I was in a, uh, I was in a, uh, a very tenuous place in terms of liquidity for firing into any of these markets and, you know, y- I think...
15:35
I guess, but here's some commentary for you. Um, I can't really remember any takes that I had that were especially- I do... strong back then. I, I do. Uh- Can I give you one? Okay. Well, yeah, fire away.
15:44
You l- you thought you were way down on the Eagles compared to market, and you completely shifted. Yeah.
15:51
Yeah, and I c- actually, now, now I'm kind of like back a little bit where I think they're, I think they're rated properly, but I see the Eagles as a team that, like, if, if there's one team that doesn't, like, equal the sum of their parts, like it's clearly the Eagles.
16:05
Right. Like that's still a really- I agree...
16:06
tenuous situation with two new coordinators and a head coach that, you know, probably should have, they should have moved on from just considering how, you know, how aggressively the locker room gave up on him at the end of last season.
16:16
But, um, but that said, like, their schedule's not tough enough to really believe that this team's not going to at least have some success this year.
16:23
And I think, um, ultimately if they get off to a good start, uh, and really it all kind of comes down to week one where I bet them, by the way. I'm, I'm into Eagles minus two.
16:33
I think I actually, I laid two and a half and I sold out to like plus 102 or something.
16:37
Um, but, uh, I think y- ultimately if the Eagles can, um, take care of business against the Packers, then all of a sudden things look pretty darn good for them, where they're not going up against any elite offenses until you get to week eight.
16:49
Uh, and so this team could very, very well kind of get the defense, get their legs under them, uh, and the offense just sort of, uh, you know, with a little bit of new wrinkles, uh, be good enough to, uh, have this team, you know, at the top of the standings, uh, mid-season.
17:04
Now, if they get through the middle of the portion of the season where things get tough without like the team quitting on the coach, then the home stretch is also very easy.
17:13
St- Panthers, Steelers, Commies, all, all 14, 15, 16, everybody else is gonna, gonna be in schedule hell at that point of the year and, uh, and they're gonna be, you know, presumably coasting through some, you know, teams that we don't think are especially good.
17:25
And, uh, and so I, I, I think ultimately the Eagles being the one seed in the NFC is, has gotta be a realistic possibility.
17:32
But, but again, like if there's one team that doesn't equal the sum of the parts because the locker room just doesn't come together and just 'cause, like there's been...
17:40
Yeah, there's been a lot of meaningful turnover there. Two coordinators turning over, plus your, you know, your vocal leader on offense in Kelce, your vocal leader on defense in Cox.
17:49
Like, the, there's, there's, uh, there's volatility involved with that Eagles team where, where you just might not, uh, might not get, you know, what, what you ought to get considering how talented that roster is.
18:00
But, uh, tough to say that the Eagles aren't, you know, a top one or two, uh, talented roster from, especially from 52, from, you know, from one to fif- from two to 53, uh, as you look at that roster.
18:11
But, um, kind of some other just quick commentary about, uh, June to now. Um, there's been very little movement in the market on win totals, like hardly any. Yeah.
18:22
Um, there's been some pretty decent shifts in some of the long shot pools. Um, and I think that makes, this makes sense.
18:29
Like I think the overall just the, uh, the people who are putting liquidity into NFL pools over the balance of the summer are finding smarter ways to do it, 'cause betting into minus 110 on either side win totals is pretty Like I, I don't see that as a, you know, a long-term way to, you know, exercise your capital efficiently.
18:49
Um, but if you're, you know, betting into pools with a little bit higher, you know, higher upside, then that makes sense. And so that's where you've seen most of the action this off season.
18:58
There really haven't been much in terms of movement in the win total pool. I'm looking at Circa's numbers from May 14th to today, and the biggest mover to the good was the Panthers. They've gone up.45 wins.
19:11
They were like equivalent, equivalent to, uh, like 5.2 when you account for juice, uh, on May 15-- fo- 14th, and now they're 5.6. Like, that's virtually no movement to the good.
19:23
The biggest movers down were the Ravens and the Cowboys. Ravens down from 11 to 10 and a half, Cowboys down from 10 and a half to 10.
19:30
Like half a win move over the pa- this much, with this much information, uh, is just, it's nothing. And, uh, I think ultimately, uh, this isn't necessarily to say that the openers were that good.
19:41
Uh, I just think that, uh, people find, uh, you know, kind of more creative ways to, to put their capital to work in the summer nowadays. As you have said, uh, for many years, alt season win total markets. Yeah, right.
19:51
Have a conviction and pound those, 'cause the notion that those are priced properly is, is probably a fallacy. Could you amuse us with all of your...
19:58
This is the last time we'll get to speak to you before the season starts. Can you amuse us with- Oh, sure... with, uh, your week one plays, all that you have? Yes.
20:05
Um, let me pull them up so I can give you prices and all. Um, opening night, I played the Chiefs minus three. I am in at plus 101. You can still get that, basically.
20:17
Uh, for some reason, I think, uh, um, you know, the market is, uh, missing a little bit here, uh, some of the deficiencies of this Ravens team, particularly out of the gate.
20:27
Um, this isn't, you know, the, the Ravens of old who come into this regular season as a sharpened spear. Um, and I think ultimately, uh, Chiefs have some pretty advantageous matchups in that one.
20:37
So laid the three with the Chiefs. Uh, I'm at minus 2.5, plus 102 on the Eagles, uh, against the Packers. Uh, mostly just like the Eagles offense matchup against the Packers defense there.
20:49
Uh, I l- I took plus six with the Arizona Cardinals at minus 102. Um, that's moved pretty aggressively.
20:55
Um, and, uh, again, like I like the over in that game on, at 48 almost as much as I like the Cardinals on the points.
21:03
Um, but, uh, that's, this is basically just a bet against the Bills defense and, uh, and just expecting that the Cardinals are gonna be able to go score for score with the Bills and keep this in, in the, in the ballpark of a one score game.
21:15
Uh, I put, uh, I, I like the Jacksonville Jaguars at plus three. Uh, I sold that out to plus 107. Uh, I think in general, the Jaguars are very live to get an ups against the Dolphins.
21:26
Dolphins are one of the teams that I think are kind of quietly flying under the radar of having a relatively poor preseason, um, mostly just in terms of like available bodies, uh, who matter.
21:37
Um, and, uh, I think ultimately they could, uh, they could stumble out of the gate a bit against the Jaguars team that looks pretty sharp on offense in my opinion.
21:45
Uh, and then, uh, favorite bet of the week one card is gonna be the, uh, Houston Texans at minus two and a half. I sold that out to minus 103. Um, my, my numbers make that, uh, out on the o- other side of three.
21:59
Uh, and I think in general, the team I'm warmest on heading into this, uh, season is the Texans, and I've taken a, a pretty decent, uh, chunk of expectation away from the Colts to start the season, uh, considering how much growth we need to see out of their quarterback.
22:12
So, um, Texans for me, I think are probably the, the high upside bet in terms of like, uh, you know, t- you know, team that you think could, uh, uh, surprise to the good in the AFC. Yeah.
22:24
Is that one of your big takeaways of the preseason, that Anthony Richardson has, has big question marks that you might not have otherwise thought he did?
22:30
Yeah, and the Colts didn't do anything to improve their secondary- They didn't... which is, or their wide receiver room. So wh- why they're, why they're fiddling around instead of- Yeah...
22:38
you know, kind of going all in with a rookie quarterback, I think tells you a little bit about the way they see Richardson as well. Drew's season-long NFL plays and the US Open, his tennis picks next.
22:47
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game, un partido de números for those listening in Spanish, uh, live from, uh, Bar Canada here at the D.
23:01
The Barrage, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bittling, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
23:06
Um, Drew Dincic kind enough to join us for our second segment, uh, here courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, @whale_capper, Deep Dive Pod, and of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge.
23:15
I wanna follow up just on a couple things or n- I don't wanna- For sure... I don't wanna leave a couple things hanging.
23:19
One, uh, there is a, for those who are in Las Vegas anyway, there's a Chiefs minus 2.5, minus 110 down at the South Point- Yep... still available. As well as, uh, the Eagles, two and a half.
23:32
As well as the Eagles, two and a half. Uh, and then Drew, you, you made a little Davante Adams Raiders comment there in the last segment, and I was just curious if you might wanna flesh that out some.
23:42
Well, I mean, I do- I don't know that there are many players that could move the needle between now and the start of the season who have a realistic chance of being traded besides Davante Adams.
23:52
I mean, I think it's pretty-- I mean, it's pretty clear that when... I gu- I guess I shouldn't even say it's pretty clear. I don't know what the Raiders are doing.
24:00
Like, the hiring of Tom Telesco was like a very head-scratching move. Yeah.
24:04
Like, I don't mind sticking with Antonio Pierce 'cause the players, like, really went out on a limb and played very hard for him, and he got more out of that defense than the talent would, you know, suggest that he should have.
24:14
Um, but then to like go all in in free agency and get Christian Wilkins when, you know, you have no answers on the offensive side of the ball, and you sat there at 13 like, "Oh, well, at least we'll get a quarterback," and then you didn't, and you ended up with a second tight end.
24:26
Like, it, like the whole, like, off-season process felt a little bit, um, uh, like, uh, you know, just things didn't break their way.
24:33
And now you have some pieces, some, some aspects that look like you're a win now team, like Davante Adams and a Christian Wilkins and, um, and realistically, like this is at best a 500 team.
24:44
And I think, uh, um, you know, the idea that, uh, you get what you can get for Adams now, who's what?
24:50
31 going into year 32, and, uh, would s- would be a huge upgrade for a ton of teams across the league who really just don't have a wide receiver one right now.
24:59
I'm looking squarely at the, you know, the Steelers, the Bills. The Bills would be a great fit.
25:03
Like, you know, the, these teams Could decide, you know, hey, it doesn't make sense to kick the tires on a Tim Patrick or, uh, you know, somebody who's just gonna, you know, kind of add, add to our stockpile of wide receiver threes.
25:17
Uh, let's just go get a wide receiver one.
25:19
Um, and, uh, you know, especially for a team like the Bills, it would make sense because you can keep him from going to, I don't know, the Jets who are now favorites to win the AFC East.
25:27
So, um, you know, I think, uh, that, that's sort of the one thing that I have my, my, you know, kind of watching the most closely for news because, um, you know, it just-- it seems like they've treated him this preseason as an asset that they're willing to move.
25:42
Uh, and he certainly has been, uh, been fairly vocal that, uh, he would like to find himself in a situation where he's more likely to chase a championship.
25:50
And, um, and I actually did make some bets just speculating on there could be something here. Uh, and that was, uh, most, uh, most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns.
26:01
Touchdowns is probably the better angle because his target share in the red zone is just absolutely stupid.
26:06
Um, and, uh, I think ultimately if he finds himself on a s- you know, in a better situation all of a sudden, you know, he's priced right now in like sort of the third or fourth tier of wide receivers in these categories.
26:18
And, you know, his, his target share would say that, uh, that that's not correct if he is, uh, with a, an elite quarterback. So, um, now if he ends up on the Steelers, I'm gonna probably tear up those tickets.
26:27
But [laughs] but, uh, yeah, there's, uh, there's definitely enough-- there were enough teams that were in the mix trying to bring in Brandon Aiyuk who now aren't gonna get that opportunity, who I think, you know, could, uh, could pivot and, and, uh, shoot for Adams.
26:40
It's amazing. Adams, as you bring up, uh, Brandon Aiyuk's situation with the Niners still unresolved. Tim Patrick expected to be released if, uh, if he isn't traded.
26:48
Uh, do these teams know that, uh, or these guys know that the season starts in nine days? [laughs] I mean, that's, that's the uncertainty this late. Um- You mentioned Trent Williams, like the Niners- Right...
26:57
are really playing with fire. Yes. Like that is really something. And he's a guy who has shown in his career he is willing to sit it out, and he did it wh- he was mad with Washington. He sat out forever.
27:07
He's like, "I'm never playing for you guys again." He was true to his word. Uh, different reasons, but still, he is a, he's a stubborn guy. Um, or stands by his principles, however you wanna spin that.
27:18
Uh, season long NFLs, give me a couple minutes on that before we get to tennis. Yeah, sure.
27:23
So, um, the biggest, uh, kind of, I guess the biggest, uh, out on a limbs for me, um, you know, and we've talked about these, I feel like, uh, you know, and so this is a little bit maybe of a summary, uh, statement here.
27:36
But, uh, I mentioned in the last segment, um, I look at the, particularly the, uh, the roster construction
27:44
and, uh, you know, some of the young players that you've seen already emerge for the Houston Texans, and I'm-- I don't understand why they're not like, like clearly on paper a super team.
27:55
Um, they're sort of still being priced in the, you know, team that stakes- takes another step forward.
27:59
And, um, you know, when they made the move for Stefon Diggs in the s- you know, in the spring, like, I think a lot of people, you know, kind of took some shots then, or, you know, the market really kind of, uh, shortened a lot of their prices for the Texans.
28:12
And for that reason, when people kind of started chewing on, uh, you know, on, well, how is this team being rated by the market at the start of this, uh, you know, you know, preseason cycle, it looked pretty clearly like, wow, well, everything's baked in.
28:24
Like this is, you know, this is a high expectations for a team that we did not think was gonna be very good to start the year last year. But, um, I don't know what else you need to see from C.J. Stroud.
28:33
I don't know what else you need to see from, uh, Bobby Slowik. Uh, I mean, I would like to see less first down, second down running personally, but we'll get to that I, I suppose.
28:40
Um, and, uh, you know, and I think the-- even more than that, like the defensive side of the ball was always more of the question about the Texans, but DeMeco Ryans has done an incredible job of coaching up some of these young players.
28:52
You have potential breakout CB1, uh, now with, uh, Derek Stingley, who has been just an absolute monster all through camp. Uh, you have, uh, a pass rush anchored by Daniil Hunter, who's, you know, is shortened to what?
29:04
Ten to one for defensive player of the year odds. Like, you know, this is, uh, all of a sudden a very legitimate, uh, Texans team with not a lot of clear and obvious weaknesses.
29:13
Uh, you can point to the offensive line and say this Texans team is gonna be handicapped in that regard. But for whatever reason, C.J.
29:19
Stroud plus Bobby Slowik seems to be completely offensive line agnostic, and so it kind of doesn't even really matter if they're not very good there.
29:26
So, um, yeah, and, uh, you know, death by a thousand cuts with this, uh, skill position group. Uh, best one, two, three wide receivers, uh, in the division by margin and, uh, maybe in all of the AFC.
29:38
So, um, this is, uh, this is a team that I think you can take some swings on to, uh, you know, to really hit their upside. Uh, I think the best angle in is C.J.
29:47
Stroud MVP because he sort of fits the exact archetype of doesn't turn the ball over and has enough high enough volume and has sort of the pedigree now with his Rookie of the Year campaign last year, followed by a playoff win, uh, that people aren't gonna have a tough time being like, "Yeah, no, he's, he's the most valuable player if this team is, you know, the one seed in the AFC."
30:06
So, um, that's, uh, that's the angle that I chose to pursue. Uh, Texans bullish, uh, you know, b-being, uh, one of the bulls on parade there.
30:15
Um, and then in the NFC, I'm, I'm, uh, most favorable relative to market for the Seattle Seahawks. Um, my angle was Coach of the Year for, uh, Mike McDonald.
30:25
That has shortened aggressively to the point that I don't know that it's b- worth a bet now.
30:30
I think it could take, uh, till about mid-season before the Seattle defense is fully, uh, you know, kind of up to, uh, the expectation that I'm, I'm expecting it to be.
30:38
But the market is still rating them in like the low twenties, and I think that's very wrong. So, um, you know, for me at least, uh, uh, those are sort of the two most fun to-- you know, angles to the good.
30:50
Um, I'm against the Bears. I'm against the Steelers. I would really love the Steelers to lose, you know, to be the f- the, the fewest wins, uh, this year.
30:58
That's a, uh, a high upside bet that I made, uh, just considering that their schedule down the stretch is so poor and that their offense has completely failed to take off this preseason.
31:08
So, um, you know, this is the-- those are sort of the, the teams that I'm cool on relative to market. And then, um, everything else I think is, is pretty fairly priced as we head into this regular season. Okay.
31:18
All right. Uh, so yeah. C-C.J. Stroud, by the way, plus 850 we're showing for MVP. Mike McDonald, now the third short shot for Coach of the Year- Wow... only behind Harbaugh and Eberflus at ten to one. That at- Whoa...
31:30
DraftKings. Uh, tennis, how did yesterday go? What do you got today? Mixed yesterday. Uh, I won most of my match bets, but, uh, I took an absolute bath on Holger Rune, who, uh, no showed against- Ooh, he got destroyed...
31:44
Mr. Brandon Nakashima. Yeah. That was awful, awful performance from him, and, uh, really questioning what I ever saw in, uh, Holger Rune, honestly. Everyone is. [laughs] So- Yeah... yeah.
31:53
Um, I should mention one thing in the, uh, outright market. Uh, my, our friend, Jay Croucher, was pressing me on, uh, the men's draw, and, uh, there's gotta be some long shot worth a bet.
32:03
And I looked at my numbers and I was like, "Well, I'm at 35 to 1 for Grigor Dimitrov," and market was mi- was 132 to 1. So, uh, I ended up with a, a pretty decent size upside bet on Dimitrov to make a run here.
32:18
Um, I think if you are playing long shots on the men's draw, you're shooting for the bottom half, 'cause that a- avoids, only, you only have to play one of Alcaraz or Sinner if you have a guy go deep.
32:27
Um, and, uh, you know, I think you're basically hoping that Djokovic, uh, you know, just either can't handle the conditions when you go up against him, or something weird happens to him in that match against, uh, Alexi Popyrin, which is sort of a, a sneaky, third round, difficult early test for him.
32:42
So, um, yeah, men's draw, I'm, I'm a, I'm a Grigor Dimitrov guy now, and, uh, I'm looking at- He, he got to the, uh- Yeah... semifinals back in 2019. Yeah, and he's, he's playing- Yeah... well.
32:51
Like, his, his, his, the level we saw from him in Miami was good, is good enough to make a deep run here. As far as match betting today, everything looks super fair.
32:59
I'm cheering for Naomi Osaka against Ostapenko, 'cause I have some outrights on Naomi.
33:03
Uh, and then I bet, uh, Otto Virtanen at plus 102 against Quinten Halys, and I bet, uh, Gabriel Diallo, uh, at, uh, minus one and a half games, minus 108 against Jaume Munar. Okay.
33:17
Virtanen was one of the last ones I cut out and did not play. Interesting. I would've been on the opposite side of you, but I didn't touch the Munar match.
33:25
[laughs] So good luck on both of those, 'cause I am not involved. And yes, Osaka, Ostapenko, along with- Yeah. Could be fun... Paolini, Andreescu, uh, Andreescu, probably the matches of the day.
33:34
Certainly Ostapenko, Osaka is. Thank you, Drew, appreciate it. Drew Dinsdale, everybody. Best of luck, guys. You too. @whale_capper. More NFL on the other side.
33:42
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You can watch episode three of Circus Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million tonight at 9:00 PM Eastern right here on VSiN.
34:00
Five-part docuseries takes you inside the high-stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest.
34:05
Follow the contestants as they make all or nothing picks over the 2023 NFL season, and go behind the scenes of the world's largest legal betting contest. Episode two was nice last night as well.
34:15
Uh, again, Sharpan, breakout star. Let me just say that again. He is tonight again in episode three. Several VSiN hosts make appearances along the way to offer their advice as well. Stormy prominently featured.
34:25
You can watch the remaining episodes this week, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific on vsin.com and YouTube TV as, as well, YouTube TV that is, as well as a live broadcast on X, where people are checking it out live.
34:36
Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch episodes one and two.
34:41
Best, uh, tweet I got, Kelly, about, uh, Circus Survivor last night was from, uh, the Numbers guys, who said, "Hey, Gil, another great addition of the Circus Survivor doc."
34:50
He said, "How come they wouldn't let you use your voice modulator as heard on Numbers game?" So he th- he believes that w- as we broadcast here from- Mm-hmm...
35:02
the food court, uh, here on the second floor of the D, that we are, that my voice is being modulated electronically. [laughs] So I mean, hey, different microphones, different places, they do sound different.
35:15
Well, we were in a, we were in a casino screaming- Yeah, yeah... during the documentary. Yeah, yeah. I'm gonna go with, uh, Gil sounds more different in the documentary than- Yes...
35:22
he does every single day on air, but... Later on the show, we will use T-Pain's voice box. [laughs] Ain't none of them hot. How quick- That's how I'm gonna do the rest of the show...
35:31
how quick would you drive away the entire audience if we were, if we just had that? Remember they had the app? Remember it was, like, that app that came out? Shorty, what is your name?
35:38
Everybody was addicted to it for, like, five days before you're like, "All right, this is really annoying." [laughs] If just to... We did the whole show in all kinds of different old-timey things or anything like that?
35:47
No, it's not modulated. Sorry, this is me. What's the- We're screaming... what's the oldest non-sports app on your phone that you still use constantly? Ooh. That I still use? Yeah. I don't use anything.
35:56
I only, I only bring this up because I, I just did it, like, yesterday here. Like, Shazam, I feel like was, like, one of the first apps available, like, on Apple, on iPhones. Oh, Sha- Shazam was the first, was...
36:07
When you used Shazam for the first time you're like, "Oh, my God, we're in the future." Right. Exactly. We're, we're- I still use it to this day... we have arrived in the... Oh, I still use Shazam all the time. Yeah.
36:15
Um, I'm going to say for sports- And outside of, like, outside of, like, the basics... oh, I was just gonna say the basics, 'cause like- Like, not, like, Google Maps. Don't give me that answer...
36:22
yeah, I was gonna say Yahoo Sp- I get- Yahoo Spectacular used to be or Sportacular. I use the Yahoo app for scores. Okay. I've always ha- people, uh,
36:32
where you get your scores, the a- which app you use or site, it's amazing how many different answers there are. Yeah. I- Well... Yeah. A lot of people use different places.
36:42
I'd like, I would like the answer to be the VSiN app, but, you know. Yeah. We'll see. We'll see what happens there. Uh, I have the, I have the White Sox. Do we have the tweets by the way? Or we'll do those later?
36:50
Yeah, we'll- Later... we'll do those later. I have the White Sox update. You ready for this? Yeah, yeah. Oh, God. I just, before I get to that, I just saw this come over. Are you ready for this? The Washington Cuck.
36:59
What is this? Commanders it says? Yeah, I refuse. The Washington Commanders announced a new eight-year stadium rights agreement. You ready for this sexy, uh, sponsor? Northwest Federal Credit Union. Yeah. [laughs] Ugh.
37:16
Terms run through the 2031-32 season for current stadium only, but do not preclude the franchise from opening a new stadium earlier. Let's go. Let's go, RFK. The new name of this stadium is called, you ready?
37:29
Northwest Stadium. Oh, my God. Live from historic Northwest Stadium in- I mean- Ralph John Maryland... I wanna say they're smart for shortening the name, but like now you're just kinda...
37:43
Or is it misleading directional-wise, by the way? Like, is the stadium somehow in a northwest area of anything? Uh, no, not really. [laughs] I'm trying to figure out, I'm trying to give them some credit for something.
37:56
La- Landover is not northwest of DC, no. [laughs] Yeah. Um- That's kind of a, kind of a problem... uh, back to the White Sox for a second. Oh, God, Northwest Stadium. Uh, back to the White Sox.
38:05
So I was, uh, I was, uh, wondering earlier out loud, 'cause we showed this unbelievable tweet about just like the futility, the different ways you can slice the futility of the Chicago White Sox.
38:15
And from James Fegan, one fact more unbelievable than the previous.
38:21
Again, a pitcher who had a 7.97 ERA, uh, hold, [laughs] holds the White Sox, uh, to one earned run over five innings, uh, a pitcher for the Tigers, Ty Madden, last night.
38:31
Uh, it was the 31st blown save by the Sox bullpen of the year. 31. Their whole record, their entire record, their s- their standings, uh, their record in the standings is 31 and 101, 70 games under 500.
38:46
70 under 500 with 132 games played, 31 and 101. And they're 3 and 33 versus Kansas City, Detroit, and Minnesota, three of their division opponents. So I set it up to Mark Borchert, and I said, "All right.
38:59
What's the total number of games?"
39:01
'Cause from a betting standpoint, what was am- what was amazing, Mark and I talked about this in Q- in the Q2 Derivatives podca- podcast, Beating The Book, the White Sox as a first five betting proposition are actually kind of break-even-y.
39:14
They're like the eighth best first five team if you blindly bet them first five all year long. That's incredible. And it is as, as displayed in this tweet, it's all about how bad their bullpen is, right?
39:27
They have leads, actually, after the first five. And they're dogs, and so the, the price works out that you'd have broke even betting them first fives. Anyway, total games they've played, 132.
39:39
Kelly, they have led after five innings 48 times. They have lost- Wait, hold on. How many, how many games have we played? 132. Okay. They have led after five innings 48 times. It's not bad.
39:55
They have lost- It's close to break even-y. They have- I'm trying to get my life to a break e- break even-y point. Now, now remember, they're gonna be tied in some of those, too. But they've led- Yeah...
40:05
to the point of our bet, the double result bet. Because some books offer this, uh, White Sox win, White Sox lose, first five, full game. So they have led 48 times after five innings. They have lost 23 of those games.
40:22
So 23 instances out of 132. That's incredible. A 174 hit percentage, in other words. Uh, the bre- the bet is priced usually at around plus 725, which is a 12.1% implied probability.
40:39
So you're basically up 57 units- [laughs]... aligned betting the double result every single game this year- Oh, man... 132 times. That is wild.
40:51
Now, if someone had come on air before the season started and said to you, "You know what I think I'm gonna do with the White Sox this year? I think they're gonna be pretty good first five.
41:00
And then I think they're gonna suck." Would've laughed him off the show. You would've been like, "What are you talking about?" You can't bet that way. [laughs] Bet that way. That's the most ridiculous thing ever.
41:07
This is what makes sports betting so incredible. 57 units to the positive. Oh, man. It, the, the part we haven't really brought up, like, you, you just...
41:14
Like, I feel bad for those, the players, like the everyday players [laughs] and the starting pitchers. Like, the bullpen's gotta be just hated, just hated. Um, one other thing you brought up in the...
41:24
You were talking about like if, forgive this, uh, sports, sports talk d- sports talk radio moment here. You were talking about this thing, this, uh, documentary.
41:31
Speaking of documentaries, this Michigan sign stealing Untold is out now. Yeah. [laughs] This is so ridiculous.
41:37
And so, so Kelly asked the, asked the very poignant question: Who do you believe more, Connor Stallions from the University of Michigan sign stealing scandal? I have not seen the documentary yet.
41:48
I just, I was reading- Or Jannik Sinner? Yeah, or Jannik Sinner.
41:51
I was read- I was reading a bit, I was on espn.com reading a bit of the Stallions story this morning, and then on ESPN it caught a package they ran on Jannik Sinner and how it, like, all happened. How his- Yeah...
42:02
test got contaminated. And you're just like, "Oh, my God, there's 14 levels to each one of these stories that like..." People wanna believe Jannik Sinner, though, 'cause he's such a nice guy, right?
42:15
And we are all human beings, and so that factors into people's brains.
42:21
Now, Andy Roddick points out that there was a lower level player who had, had the same infinitesimal amount of a trace detected who was treated in the same manner.
42:33
So Andy Roddick's position, wor- uh, former world number one, former US Open champion, his position is you have to let it be adjudicated this way with Jannik Sinner because there's precedent for it. Mm.
42:42
That, that's a good point. But other people say, "How do you know this trace, this remnant, is not just a remnant from a larger, a larger sample?" We don't, right? So I, I don't know. There's so many of these.
42:53
I mean, what, what's the story? One of the coaches or his medical guy- Jesus. Yeah... cut, cut his finger, right? Yeah. Okay, yeah.
43:00
Then got some ointment from a doctor in Italy that's only avoi- available in Italy, applied it on his cut finger, then massaged Jannik Sinner, who apparently had cuts on his legs.
43:11
Therefore, the drug transferred- [laughs]... from blood system to blood sys- Like, what are we talking about here? Come on.
43:18
And then Stallions is, Stallions says, "Oh, yeah, like, I bought tickets for these games, but then I gave them to friends." The answer to your question is Stallions is less believable.
43:28
[laughs] I think they're, I think they're both absurd. Because this dude was, like, a lifelong Michigan fan- Yeah... who, like, systematically tracked the sign stealing, like, data through the years.
43:41
Like, this guy was absolutely... And then he's, "I don't know what you're talking about." This guy, Stallions, is, is less believable.
43:46
In the documentary, Stallions tells the NCAA that, quote, "There are some people who attended games using tickets that I purchased and recorded parts of those games."
43:56
Remember the Central Michigan g- uh, game where he- Nothing to do with Michigan there. Remember the Central Michigan one where he denies that he's, that he's the guy that they spot on the sidelines?
44:03
But Dave Portnoy from Barstool says, "No, he told me it was him." [laughs] So, I mean- What are we doing?... if, if Dave Portnoy is the voice of reason, right? Yeah. You know, that's something.
44:12
By the way, you say ointment? Ointment. Whenever ointments are involved- Oint- ointments... that's bad. Yeah. That's one of my least favorite words is the word ointment. Yeah, it's pretty, it's a pretty terrible word.
44:19
Ointment. [laughs] Ointment. I think that was a word my mom used to say. "Kelly, maybe an ointment will work." We'll come back, Michael Montesano. College football and pro football plays next.
44:30
Numbers Game, presented by the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
