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Aug 27, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2026 | Hour 1
00:00
44:48
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:20
That right there is Kelly Bidlin, and this is Danny Higgins' second to last day. That's right, man.
0:25
I wanna do something for Danny, but Danny's like, "No, I'm g- I'm, I will be out of here the minute after the show in a different state." He's working, packing, hitting the road.
0:33
He's got, he's got work to start early next week. Yeah. Also, what I learned just moments ago is that Kelly Bidlin may be leaving the show because you wanna start what? What do you wanna start? An escalator company.
0:43
Maybe escalator repair company. I don't know. If anything I've learned, learned in Vegas- Yeah... over my, what, ni- nine years living out here now? Uh-huh.
0:49
Is that every casino I ever walk in, there's a broken escalator and there's people fixing it, and it looks like a massive project. [laughs] It looks really expensive. Why?
0:56
[laughs] It's so- Like Derek Stevens has to have an, an escalator company on retainer. There's people here, like once a week.
1:02
There's an escalator in the middle of the strip, so right where- There's a lot with the skywalks, right? With the, with the skywalks, right. Where the, right where the Cosmo is. Mm-hmm.
1:10
You take the skywalk right across the street, and there's like the Walgreens and that kind of thing. So right in the heart of the strip, corner of Harmon and Las Vegas Boulevard.
1:18
There is an escalator there on that other side. I swear to you, it is broken 86.4% of the time. That's what I'm talking about. And there al- there's always people working on these things. Yeah.
1:28
So I, there's gotta be good money in that business. Eh, creating jobs. Creating jobs. Well- That's what I'm here for... Kelly Bidlin, maybe his second to last day. I don't know. [laughs] Maybe.
1:36
On the show today, Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen makes his triumphant return to the show. He was on a, what is it, a European vacation, I believe it was. Yeah.
1:43
He'll talk US Open with us day before we, uh, get together with Drew Ditzik, do the podcast on the open post draw. We're getting the draw here, uh, later today. He will talk NFL with us as well.
1:54
Michael Monosono will join us. He in studio? He's in studio. Let's go. Monosono. I think he's at the gym right now. Well, well where else would he be? Bets and Reps, by the way, is his Twitter.
2:03
Uh, he will talk college football futures with us. Yeah, I think he has an NFL future as well. Monosono will join us. Now, Right Angle Sports joining the show today.
2:11
Michael Reardon will join the show today, talk, uh, college football with us. We'll talk week zero with him. Now, this is, w- usually what we will have with him is a release, a live release on the show.
2:21
I don't know that we're getting that today 'cause it's week zero. Yeah. And these have been up for, you know, 100 months. Mm-hmm.
2:27
So don't know we're getting that, but we'll talk college football, week zero primarily, with Michael Reardon.
2:31
Uh, and then it is unscripted with The Crack Man, a little bit earlier than normal today, about 15 minutes earlier than normal, uh, normal, and the reason for that is, is because for the majority of the final hour,
2:44
the co-founder of World Sports Exchange, Jay Cohen, will be joining us, uh, from an undisclosed location somewhere in Eastern Europe, I believe.
2:52
Uh, but he will be joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line to talk about his new book, Odds Man Out.
2:58
And I will say it once again, I don't know if I've looked forward to a guest as much as this guy ever, because I, I, again, I read the book. I just, I, I devoured that book. It was so awesome. Um- It's a wild story, man.
3:09
It's an incred- Well, it's, for those of us of a certain age who also, you know, played on World Sports Exchange, what a, what a story from being revolutionary, to believing in America, to having it all just crumble.
3:24
And, um, we'll get into all the details.
3:26
I wanna, for, for those who haven't read the book, for those who don't know the story, we'll get to the nuts and bolts of the story, and then I have a bunch of questions to ask him, uh, regarding, I don't know, regrets.
3:35
What about people left holding the bag at the end? So many things to discuss, but what a, what a story.
3:40
And there should not be, I say this about the Baseball Hall of Fame, there should not be a Baseball Hall of Fame without Barry Lamar Bonds.
3:45
There should never be a sports betting or sports gambling hall of fame without Jay Cohen in it, period. We still doing the T at the end of the period, or people still saying that? Period. Anyway. Period.
3:56
I, I don't know that one. Yeah. Looking forward to Jay coming on. Yes. That's gonna be fun. Yesterday in tennis, had three plays. You either went 2-0 or 2-1, depending on where you shopped.
4:06
Uh, because for once, and we, we actually, when you were gone, Kelly, we did a whole, we did a spreadsheet radio one morning. Love that. Go ahead. I loved it. I saw, I saw it in the, uh, show recap.
4:15
I was like, "This is awesome." Yeah, we did. I sort of, uh- Should do it more often. Yeah, I don't know how much people have. What do you think is, what do you think people like more, spreadsheet radio or tax code radio?
4:25
When we do gambling taxes- Spreadshe- I, spreadsheet radio for sure. Okay. Spreadsheet radio, uh, and that is, I think it applies to a lot of sports. I, I, I think that there are...
4:35
I don't, I don't think you have to be much more than a casual sports bettor to start won- wondering and asking questions, "How do these people get to these numbers and arrive at these bets?" Yeah.
4:44
And I think it's always interesting no matter what people are doing with power ratings or how they're handicapping a sport. I love learning that about anybody who comes on and talks about what they're betting. I do too.
4:54
I just wonder if you took the, if you took, l- maybe for this show it's different, right? Mm. If you took the average Numbers Game listener, maybe they are, maybe they are into it.
5:00
I'm not saying we need to do three hours on it, yeah? [laughs] No. We confined it to one segment. Yeah. [laughs] I did that favor anyway.
5:06
But the point is that we finally, we, we were, w- what we showed last week was that this year, 2026, based on folks walking off the court- Mm-hmm...
5:16
after the, after the match had started, I just, uh, I, I culled just the withdrawals and, and showed those. I have, and, and then you put the score of when the player walked off the court, men's or women's,
5:29
and then you make a very sort of honest, uh, assessment of would we have likely have won this match, would we likely have lost this match, and then a lot of them are throwouts too.
5:39
But it would've cost us over eight units this year. We could get the worst of all the walk, of, of all the folks walking off the court who are about to win, right? 5-love in the third. Yeah.
5:48
5-1 in the third, and the opponent walks off the court. Now, what does that do?
5:51
That means we still win at some books that grade after one set, but it minimizes our winnings because some books that we bet at grade only at completion of match.
5:58
Well, last night we got a unit back, a unit plus back, uh, because- We hit on, um, we hit on Bousset yesterday, who won. We also hit on Van de Zandschulp, who won like six-one, six-love. Like, he crushed. B, V to Z.
6:15
I was just trying to think of it. Uh, B, V to Z. Yeah. He won. So we won those two, but then, so we just, we needed Sebastian Baez for the clean sweep. Sebastian Baez is getting beat one set down and four-love.
6:26
Like, he was just not there, and a lot of this has to do with this week. It's a fuck off the week. Oh, and I said yesterday, we probably shouldn't be playing this week, and ratcheted down to one play today.
6:35
But Baez down four-love, two games away from losing. He walks off the court. So give us a little bit of that bad luck back. There we go. There we go. Thank you very much. All right. So I missed a segment.
6:45
I got a, I got a question for you right away. Yeah. Are you, are you tracking these in real time?
6:49
Like, every day, whenever you're trying to tracking results, is that something that you're noting so it was easy to go back and kind of go through your notes and- Yes, on the withdrawals specifically. Yes, okay. Yes.
7:00
It's a, I wanna know what we, what was likely to happen, and are we getting... And we, and we went back in time, too. Like, one year we actually got the best of it- Hmm... by, by like four units.
7:10
But this year, by far, and it's only August, just getting smacked on this. So we get one, one of those favorable, so no apologies on, in other words, and Baez walking off the court yesterday.
7:18
Even like, like day of or day after when you're kind of marking these results- Yeah... y- you, you'll even mark when, when the wi- w- the withdrew happened? When they, when they quit.
7:26
What, what the score is when they co- when they leave. Wow, okay. All right, cool. Yeah, yeah. That's great. 'Cause otherwise you don't really have a sense of what the- No, you don't. Yeah.
7:31
That, that's, I- I thought you would've had to go back and look at the, look that up. Well- Well, there wi- there will be some from years ago. I don't think I did it in 2022, and I w- and I had to go back and look, yeah.
7:41
Gotcha. Um, there's only one play today. This is, what's interesting is, and again, I, I have some insight into certain prediction markets, yesterday was like the biggest tennis day [laughs] volume-wise.
7:56
I don't think that's- And I'm just like, okay, that has to be like square bear stuff because, again, my numbers of this week- Yeah... it's the weird tournament before the US Open. Men are in Winston-Salem. It's a 250.
8:07
Ladies are in Monterrey in Mex- in Mexico. It's a 500. But anyway, the, um, the, people are betting these left and right. I only have one today. Ignacio Bousset, once again, we're going back to the well on him.
8:18
The Peruvian, believe he's Peruvian, plus 102 versus Juan Manuel Cerundolo. There you go. He- That's the only tennis play... the other Cerundolo. The other, the other Cerundolo. Cerundolo.
8:30
You bet, you bet against him yesterday, right? Yes. Well, that was the one where Baez walked off the court. Ah, okay. All right. Yeah.
8:35
So anyway, Bousset's the only play today, and this is, I feel like probably only get one play a day or two plays a day max here in the next couple days before we get to the US Open.
8:42
Did you see that Brad Allen tweet I sent you this morning? The, uh- Yes. I- Just bringing up off the tennis. You were talking about the tennis. Yeah. Pre-season betting. Football. NFL. Football.
8:53
This is from Brad Allen @Brad- Brad Allen NFL. "Cumulative football trading is already above $400 million this pre-season, up from 13.8 at the same time last year." Yep.
9:06
[laughs] And again, those nu- the number with, uh, again, volume in prediction markets is not an exact reflection of handle. Betting handle in legalized sportsbook, sportsbooks is the total pool of money being bet.
9:20
Volume at prediction markets is not exactly that 'cause there's market maker to market maker. Sure. There's market maker to peer, there's peer to peer, but it's at least half of that. It's- Minimum...
9:28
it's a 30 times increase, though- Yeah... in a, in a year in volume. It's insane, which ties in again with our guest at the end of the show- Mm-hmm...
9:37
Jay Cohen, who pioneered all this stuff and has reaped zero benefit from any of it. I, and I, like, yeah, and I, Gil, like I, like this season's NFL numbers are gonna be out of control.
9:49
Well- I mean, like last year was kind of like the first year it felt like people were using it, but not even, not everybody. We even knew were u- were using prediction markets last year.
9:57
I, I don't know if you remember me though, Kelly. Like, there were some, there were some,
10:01
I don't know if it was last year or two years ago, where like a Monday night game, and I would say it, I think I said it on air, I was like, "Do you know what the volume was with- Mm-hmm... Monday night football?"
10:09
'Cause we come from a state where, we're in a state, Nevada, where remember when a Super Bowl happened, you're like, "Oh, wow, the handle- Right, yeah... has broken the record. Yeah.
10:16
It's $127 million statewide," or whatever we used to say. I mean, these guys, and, and again, there's Robinhood accounts and it's- Right, right, right [laughs]...
10:25
it's a bunch of trading during, but it just like, the, the, we cannot conceive of the money. No, we can't. Yeah. We can't. Yeah. No, it, it's good of you to qualify that. Yeah.
10:33
But the, the, yes, the Nevada Super Bowl handle is never [laughs] going to come close ever again to what we see on the volume on prediction markets. It's a whole new, it's a whole new world.
10:42
We'll talk to Jay Cohen about, you know, that as part of the discussion a little later on. MLB August, this is g- this is a bit of a rollercoaster. Phillies still clinging to the lead.
10:53
They go up to minus 145 now, current odds, with only, what's that? Five days left in the month. They lead the August wins both from a dead heat perspective or from a, uh, tiebreaker perspective.
11:05
They got it outright right now, 17 and 7. The Padres are one win back at 16 and 8, and then there are the Red Sox and Rays, two wins back at 50 to 9.
11:14
Red Sox trying to do the first ever back-to-back in the three years that we've done this. Nobody has ever, no team has ever done that. Your Cubbies, three wins back, kind of getting on life support here. Yeah.
11:24
Hope you didn't have the Giants yesterday. Ugh. Wow. This, what is that? Six runs in the ninth? Giants up nine-three, I believe it was, in the ninth. Is that, is that correct?
11:36
In a seven run Reds ninth inning, beats the Giants 10 to 9. We'll look at best record at, uh, MLB, worst record MLB as well, uh, on the show because [laughs] the Giants are like, "Hey, ooh, look at us.
11:48
We, we might be that team." Will Hill or Zach Cohen?
12:02
VSiN, the sports betting network College football, week zero, it's here. The NFL season's just around the corner. Now's the time to get your edge with VSiN Pro.
12:10
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12:18
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12:31
Head to vsin.com/subscribe now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Uh, I said our next guest was Will Hill. By Will Hill, I meant Zach Cohen. Will was yesterday. I'm a little disappointed in Zach. Mm. I know.
12:43
Well, Zach also letting us know off-air that on his European vacation, he went to both Paris and London, and he said he, uh, he went by train from one to the other.
12:52
Though I'm just gonna suggest to Zach as he comes on the show, perhaps he didn't go to one of those cities, because I think that's impossible. No, you can! He used the Chunnel.
12:59
But he, he said he didn't, he didn't use the Chunnel. No, he did. He just doesn't know what the Chunnel is. Oh. Zach Cohen joins us now. Which is even more... That's what's sadder. [laughs] It's even more sad.
13:05
Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, Zach joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter @BettingOnX. Zach, how was the trip, and how did you get from one spot to the other? Uh, the trip was great. We didn't do a lot.
13:15
We just kinda walked around London for, like, six days with the baby, strolling her around. And that flight, by the way, to London was fine. The way back was a disaster. [laughs] Oh, yeah.
13:25
But she was really, really good for- [laughs]... most of this trip. So I know a lot of people kinda said that I was insane for bringing her, but it really did work out pretty well. Okay.
13:33
And you did go via Chunnel to Paris, then, afterwards? It must have been the Chunnel. I don't know. I, I didn't know what it was called, but it must've been.
13:40
It was, like, right next to where Harry Potter went to Hogwarts, so if that's what the Chunnel is, then yeah. Th- this blows my mind only 'cause- You do realize there's water in between, right? Yeah. Yeah.
13:49
Like, like- Yeah, you go underwater. Oh, okay. There you go. Like, this blows my mind just 'cause I'd be the... Like, I love stuff like this. Yeah. I'd be the nerd who wanted to go on the Chunnel tour.
13:58
Like, guys, it's, someone looked at the island of Britannia and Europe, and a bunch of water in between, 30 miles, and was like, "You know what?
14:07
Let's go all the way down, and we're gonna build out this huge tunnel so people can drive cars and take ra- uh, trains through it." Were you also like, "And I'll build you an escalator that won't break"? It's incredible.
14:18
Yeah. It's an incredible feat of hu- human engineering. Man's, man's amazing, Zach. Appreciate it.
14:23
Um, I ho- So while I hope, I hope your daughter made it okay in the end, and that, uh, you weren't, you weren't the laughing stock of the airplane- [laughs]... where everybody pointing the finger at you.
14:33
Y- this is a, this is a really strange week in tennis. Uh, again, the US Open draw happens today. Men are in Winston-Salem. Ladies are in, uh, Mexico. You did manage to find a couple plays here, though, for us. Yeah.
14:45
I mean, I have a few more on the website, too, but these were two of my favorites. I, I like Colton Smith on the money line against Hugo Gaston in US Open qualifying. That was minus 110 when I got it.
14:56
Not exactly sure what it is now, but I really think this is a really good value, even if you have to, you know, take a little bit worse, like minus 140.
15:03
But Smith is a player with a lot of firepower, big serve, big forehand, really dangerous on hard courts, and somebody that does a good job of kinda playing into the American crowd.
15:13
Whereas Gaston's a player that has really struggled on hard courts throughout his career, has a hold percentage under 70% on this surface, which is really bad, and I just don't know that he's going to be able to kinda hit through his opponent in this match.
15:25
So I really like the younger Smith to find a way to get through this one. And then, like you said, it is a weird week. We have some tennis in Winston-Salem. I like Aleksandar Kovacevic plus 125 against Arthur Fils.
15:38
Little surprised that Kovacevic is the underdog in this match. I feel like Fils' numbers are a little inflated from what we just saw at Wimbledon.
15:46
But throughout the course of his career, this has not been a very good server. He's a player with a good backhand. He likes to keep a lot of balls alive.
15:53
But I think that what we saw in London from him was, you know, a little bit of an out-of-body experience with him kinda playing well in front of that crowd.
16:02
I think Kovacevic is a better player, and I think that he has a few more pathways to a victory in this match. All right. There you go. Couple more tennis plays, if, uh, one wasn't enough earlier.
16:10
Arthur Fils, who, uh, got to the semis in Wimbledon using a new Wilson Defier racquet. That's what it is. It's that racquet. It's always the tools. Okay, to college football, week zero.
16:19
Uh, everybody has a thought, it seems like, on UNC and TCU. You are no exception. How are you playing this? Yeah, I guess we don't really have a choice but to have a thought on this game. That's right.
16:29
This feels like the biggest game of the weekend. But I do like UNC in this game. I got a bad number on it. I got plus eight. It has since moved. You can even find it nine-and-a-half right now.
16:38
But I think that the move wasn't really warranted. It, it, it's surrounding Steve Belichick and his, you know, health status heading into that game. Sounds like he's not going to be on the sidelines.
16:48
He's on medical leave. And perhaps Bill Belichick will be the one calling the plays. But I do think that this is going to be an interesting game, because TCU is shifting from the air raid offense to a pro-style offense.
16:59
And I just kinda think it's going to end up being an ugly game. Like, you look at the weather, you're expecting to see some rain. I still trust the Tar Heels defense to kinda hold its own in this one.
17:09
So if it's going to be kinda lower in scoring, and I do lean under on 47 and a half, I'll take the points with the Tar Heels, who I think are going to be much better offensively this season.
17:18
'Cause I do like Bobby Petrino as an offensive coordinator. May be some off-the-field questions with him always, but I do think he's a, does a good job of running an offense.
17:26
I think the quarterback situation is a little bit better than it was a year ago. Billy Edwards Jr. is good when he is on the field. I don't know that he's going to be on the field. I am a Wisconsin fan.
17:36
I feel like I never actually got to see him play last year. But I do think that he is going to be just fine for them. So I think it's going to be a close game. I think UNC actually has a chance to win that game.
17:44
Saturday noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific. Oh, yeah. Waking up Saturday morning to that one.
17:50
I, I don't, I didn't catch this, so pardon me for putting you on the spot here, Zach, but did you have a Heisman thought or bet this year? I have a bunch of thoughts, but, like, the newest one that I had- [laughs]...
18:00
is that I do think that Caelen Russell, the new Al- Alabama starting quarterback, is very much live in that market. So I have a few over in the guide, my favorite being probably- Uh, Darian Mensah from Miami.
18:15
Uh, I think that that's going to be somebody that puts up massive numbers for a team that goes on to win the ACC and make the college football playoff, and we've just seen so many QBs have success in that Hurricane's offense, and transfer QBs too.
18:28
So that's my favorite play kind of at the top of the board.
18:31
But I do think Russell is really interesting for Alabama because that is an offense that we know can be really explosive under Ryan Grubb, and I think he's a really unique player because he is athletic, but he's a really good pocket passer, and he moves very well in the pocket.
18:45
He can make every throw you want him to make, but when he needs to take off, he's going to be able to do it.
18:49
So I see him being a player that puts up huge numbers, and I don't know, I think he's gonna have some showcase games as a part of that Alabama team, and I think the Crimson Tide will be a little bit better than people think.
18:59
So that is a really long number, the 26 to one that's listed down there, for somebody that I believe has as much talent as anybody at the position.
19:07
I haven't heard one person, and this is just anecdotal, 'cause I'm sure there's people who have bets on him, but I haven't heard one person mention Trinidad Chambliss on this show- Mm-hmm... from Ole Miss at 13 to one.
19:15
Are, are we, are we sleeping on him here? I don't know.
19:19
The reason I don't have him is I do think that Ole Miss is going to be a regression candidate, and I do think that he's lost quite a bit when you're looking at his pass catchers.
19:26
I think Chambliss is going to put up some big numbers and some big games. I think that he's going to be a part of the conversation.
19:32
I just don't like him as much as some of the players a little bit further down the board, so I'd rather take some longer shots than grab him. Okay. I found that curious as well, though. Yeah, no, there's that word.
19:40
I- I've noticed that. I, I, I'll, I'll shout out Zach, though. I... How much... I haven't heard much Alabama love period either this off season, so at least, at least we got a little there. Um, to the NBA. We'll...
19:51
And we'll, we'll roundabout, we'll get to Ted as next segment again for, for US Open thoughts. But NBA's had a, a, a, I don't know what you'd call it, a spate of trades, but there's been a few.
19:59
Um, by the way, Zach with his top 10 NBA coaches, was that Hardwood Handicappers or was that on the website? What was that? That was a YouTube video for... Yeah, Hardwood Handicappers. Hardwood Handicaps.
20:08
But yeah, it's on YouTube. Yeah. Where I believe he made the outlandish claim that Ima Udoka should be ranked higher than Steve Kerr. Did you say that? Is that on there? Yes? I- Yeah... I did say that. Yeah. Okay.
20:17
I, I, I think that, yeah, it, it's probably a bit of a hot take, but I do believe that. [laughs] It's okay. Uh, if you check that out, because if you, uh, NBA coaches w- uh, 10 down to one for Zach's rankings.
20:27
Hardwood Handicappers, by the way, wherever hard ca- uh, wherever you get your podcasts. Um, w- has anything moved the needle for you in terms of triggering a bet or two? Yeah.
20:38
So I, I think the Peyton Watson trade to the Cavaliers is the first one in a while at least that has kinda made me shift my thinking on a team.
20:46
I kinda said like last week or two weeks ago, all blending together now, but I thought there were like six or seven teams in the Eastern Conference that could win, and I thought the Cavaliers were the first team in the next tier.
20:56
I think getting Watson bumps them back up into Eastern Conference contender status, and I, I think that Watson's a player that, you know, maybe not the greatest player in the world.
21:06
There are definitely some holes in his game, and I don't think that, you know, Denver is going to be, you know, dead in the water because they lost him.
21:12
But Cleveland has been missing a big wing that can defend, that can make plays and transitions, somebody that has his exact skill set for years now, and I thought that LeBron James would've been a really good fit for them as a small forward.
21:24
But I think that Watson is going to add another element to that team as well. So I kinda liked them going out and making that move.
21:31
I also like that it's something that, you know, kinda keeps them in the mix for being a good team after James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
21:38
You have a young core now that includes Evan Mobley, Peyton Watson, Jalen Tyson, a player I really like. But yeah, I think the Cavaliers were, you know, an Eastern Conference finals team last year.
21:48
Obviously were really disappointing in that Knicks series, and we all kinda lost faith in Kenny Atkinson, but I think they got a lot better in making that move. Um, okay.
21:57
So then give me your Eastern Conference pecking order, if you would, as we stand right now. Yeah. I mean, I have the Celtics at number one, and I have the Knicks at number two. It's a little bit tougher after that.
22:10
I, I kinda jumble all those teams together, but I do think the Cavaliers are in that mix. I think the Pacers are in that mix. I liked what the Heat did getting Klay Thompson.
22:19
I think there's a lot of teams that are going to feel like they could win the East this year, but as of right now, I have the Celtics at one and the Knicks at number two. Yeah.
22:26
And the, and the Pistons are, are waving their hand right now saying, "What about us? We're in there, too." Yeah. Yeah, a bunch of teams are there. What...
22:32
It should be fa- it should be fascinating once basketball starts. Of course, uh, we got the business of football before then, college and pro.
22:38
Um, more from Zach on, uh, multiple things, including more basketball and some more tennis. US Open right around the corner. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:46
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:04
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23:13
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23:22
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23:30
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23:41
That's btb-analytics.com. Oh, bunch of tweets. "Beat you to the book." Always appreciate it. Game Time Jones, "At the Coliseum, the A's would play Celebration by Kool & The Gang after a win.
23:52
I heard my mother singing it, celebration time, come on" [laughs]... and connected her with Celebrate Good Times. She said she had been singing it wrong for 30 plus years. Nick Mancini, "Bring the mega pot already."
24:06
I'm with you, man. It's get- we're getting there. Eric Biggio, our buddy from William Hill Caesars, letting us know that September most wins is up. Right. Major League Baseball. Tomorrow it's up. No, no, I know.
24:17
Or when are we talking about it? Tomorrow? Oh, when are we talking about it? It's, it's still Apr- it's still August 27th. I just found out just this moment. It is. Okay, maybe not tomorrow.
24:26
Wait, but then Monday would be the- I don't know... 31st, right? Oh, yeah. Is that what it is? [laughs] Yeah, we'll talk about the 31st. Okay.
24:32
Uh, NoAmyDoug, "I understand Cleveland's hope for a quarterback in next year's draft, but can you play this year with a quarterback that the fans really dislike and will boo every time he touches the ball?"
24:42
Ah, they're gonna try. I- I don't know how long it's gonna last, to your point, but we'll see. That's... I'll c- circle back. When did we talk about first coach fired? Was that yesterday or the day before?
24:52
Yeah, I can't even remember.
24:53
I, like, I know it is, would be real bizarre to see a first-year head coach go, but I think this could be such a disaster in Cleveland that we get, like, halfway through the season and it's hit, hit some kind of reset button.
25:04
Todd Monken. He might, and I'm talking- Head funky Monken. No, nice, I like it. Thank you. BC boys. Um- Uh-huh... I like the, I think there's a possibility that it's like we're talking halfway through the season.
25:15
It's not just, like, him gone and, like, Deshaun Watson. We're, we might even end up being at a point where, like, Shedeur's not working out, and it's just, like, Dillon Gabriel go out there and finish the season. Yeah.
25:26
Michael Montesano letting everybody know he's coming on the show. Icegoon, "Hey, I know you guys are having Jake Cohen on in a few hours. I actually got to visit him when he was at Nellis." Oh, wow.
25:35
"You guys can send me a DM. I can tell you what my visit was like in more than 280 characters, but not excessively more, okay?" I would love to. I'm doing a, we're doing a show, otherwise I would.
25:43
I wish I had seen that beforehand. Nellis, by the way, Kelly, the prison that he was sent to, here, where you can actually look out and see the Las Vegas Strip.
25:54
So imagine what he was prosecuted for, and then the irony or the kicking the you know what- Yeah... of then looking out the window and seeing the Las Vegas Strip. That's crazy. What a wild story.
26:06
W- I mean, from, from start to finish, can't wait till we get into it with him, but yeah, that's, that, even that detail is just wild. Bobby Getty, "S- let's be real.
26:13
We know the only way Kelly leaves a numbers game is if he gets the Phil Swift job or inherits several Falcons." That's very true. My bad. LasVegas514, "Yo, don't forget about your joy over one John Riggins."
26:23
Okay, you're right. John Riggins- Mm-hmm... the most excited I've ever been. Mm-hmm. And finally, Shrek. Well, there's not finally, but I'll stop here.
26:30
Shrek McPhee, "It's not a draw for today, it's a reveal for the US Open." [laughs] Why, he says, "Why do we ruin everything good in sports? Easier to fix matchups. LOL."
26:39
Zach Cohen joins us now, again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. I'm sorry, Zach, it is. It's like, uh, it's like when your child is born now, right?
26:45
They do the, the parents do the reveal is, for the gender reveal, right? This is a, this is not a draw, it's a reveal for the US Open.
26:52
Um, here is, here's the non-Jannik Sinner, 'cause there's, Jannik Sinner's not playing. Carlitos at DraftKings is now two to one, plus 200.
27:02
Sascha Zverev plus 320, Novak going for his 25th Singles Grand Slam titles plus 750, Ben Shelton, nine to one. Where did you end up? You, you've got some good numbers on some folks. Who do, who'd you end up with?
27:14
Yeah, so last either Monday or Tuesday, like overnight while I was away, I got a text that Sinner was likely going to be out and that Alcaraz was going to be in.
27:22
But I've, you know, haven't seen Alcaraz play in four or five months. Wasn't really high on him going into this tournament, so I took some flyers. I, I got Shelton, I got Fritz both at 19 to one.
27:33
I got Rafael Nadal at 20 to one, and I got Felix Auger-Aliassime at 49 to one. Ooh. I mean, these are kind of roughly equivalent. Some of these were at prediction markets, so not exact science comparing the two.
27:43
But yeah, four of those players. I, I still think that there's some value on Felix at 25 to one, but yeah, I do think we're going to see, you know, a different champion here.
27:52
I, I think that Carlos and Djokovic, from what I have seen i- in either practice sets or exhibitions, like they just don't look right to me.
28:01
Alcaraz possibly holding a lot back in terms of like his serve, but we have s- really seen nothing but like slow sliders.
28:10
We haven't really seen any of the fastball stuff, and I think that Djokovic has just looked really lost. So I think we're going to see somebody else win.
28:17
I, I really do think that there's a chance it could be a guy like Shelton or, or Fritz, who, you know, both play so well i- in, you know, New York. And I think that Fritz would be my favorite pick- Really...
28:27
you know, to win outside of the top two. But Felix, that price is just tough to pass on. Ta- it's so funny, 'cause Taylor Fritz, of all the names you've mentioned, I'm like, "Okay, yeah, pr- in a world I could see that."
28:37
Taylor Fritz is the one I can't get to. I just cannot see this guy hoisting up a US Open trophy. Um, but we'll see. Uh, you're right, he does play well. He s- he specifically plays well in California, right?
28:48
That's, that's where he plays the best. Yeah. But certainly, uh, there's a bit of a home road split with, uh, guys like him and Tiafoe.
28:55
Um, you and Drew both, it appears, uh, leaning Felix Auger-Aliassime, last year's semifinalist, semifinalist once before at the US Open. Ladies' side, any thoughts preliminary before the draw?
29:06
Yeah, well, I mean, you did, you know, solid, and you texted that you found Iga at plus 700. It was like while she was winning a match. Yeah. I forget where, but she has been so good.
29:15
I was able to jump on her at plus 800, and I think if it's not going to be Iga, I think it's gonna be Coco, who I, I think just has completely figured out the serve and the forehand.
29:24
And I think there are going to be moments over the next two weeks where we're going to see her kind of lose that.
29:29
But I feel like she's good enough at grinding her way through matches that she's going to find a way to work herself really deep in the tournament. But yeah, she has been as impressive as anyone.
29:38
I think those two are playing the best tennis coming into this.
29:41
Pegula, I, I think, will make a deep run, but it's kind of alarming when you see her go up against somebody like Coco and it feels like she has almost no answers.
29:49
But yeah, that's really where I stand right now on the women's side.
29:52
I will also mention, though, for the men, just before we go quickly kind of move off of it, like, Hodar and Theis are the two players that I think I would pick if we had better best of five data for both of them. Me too.
30:03
I think that in terms of like ELO rating and just performance rating and everything we've kind of seen from them eye test wise, those have been the two best players that are not Sinner or Alcaraz.
30:13
It's just such a question mark how Hodar's going to kind of hold up in a best of five, and Theis is the same thing, where he has those back issues, but he looked really impressive in, in Cincinnati.
30:24
So yeah, it's, uh, really interesting on both sides. I said the exact same thing. Hodar, Hodar and Theis are my guys. I said about Hodar specifically, but I don't know about a best of five with him seven times.
30:33
We'll see. Um, okay. Let me just ask you this before you go. National Football League, we all had to submit for our NFL betting guide 2.0. I'm not sure if you added anything to it as well.
30:44
But what's the, uh, what's the one Zach Cohen season-long NFL bet that you've made that we might not have heard about here on the show? What have you added? Yeah.
30:54
So the one that I'm adding, I haven't even written it up in that Best Bets file yet, because I'm working on the AFC write-ups for that guide right now, but I like Malik Willis over 549 1/2 rushing yards. Nice.
31:05
I just feel like everything that we've heard out of him throughout training camp has been that he's been performing at a really high level, and he's been throwing the ball well, and that's a team that they don't really have a backup quarterback.
31:15
They don't really have anybody that they need to turn to towards the end of the season.
31:19
I think this is Willis's job for as long as he's able to stay healthy, and when he has been able to stay healthy, and when he has started games, he's averaged 45 rushing yards per game.
31:27
So over the course of a season, that's a 765-yard pace.
31:32
I don't think he's going to play every game this year, but I do think we're going to see him in a lot of games where, you know, they're losing big, they're soft defenses, they're giving up six, seven-yard runs to him that don't really matter, and I think there's going to be a couple games where he really breaks out and rushes for, like, 70 or 80 yards.
31:49
So that's where I ended up landing with him. But yeah, he's been one of the most impressive players to me both in camp and preseason, so wanted to find a way to back him. I think that that's a low enough number.
31:59
How can you not like that bet? I guess, I guess with all season-long overs you have to say barring injury, right? Yeah. 'Cause that's the- Yep...
32:05
that's the fly in the ointment with overs, 'cause injuries, this just in, do happen. Um, but yeah, I would, I would l- have no problem living through that bet.
32:13
I, you, you know, my favorite part about that bet is, uh, Zach, it helps to bet an over on a rushing prop with a, with a quarterback who doesn't have any receivers to throw the ball to. That's true.
32:21
[laughs] So that's, that's really what I like best about it- It's a, it's a good element... 'cause there's nobody on that roster to throw it to.
32:26
All right, Zach, I have to ask you, the c- the question that our non-betting friends would most ask us, and for some reason, like, we're too cool for school to ever ask it on the show, who's in the Super Bowl?
32:38
I think it's gonna be the Bills and the 49ers, and I think the Bills are gonna win. Wow. I don't know if that's exactly what I had when we released the first guide.
32:45
I feel like I might have had something like it or something sim- I already forgot, but that is what I have right now.
32:49
I think the Bills, from what I've read, and w- you know, what I've seen, I think that the defense is going to be a little bit better.
32:55
I really like Jim Leonard as a defensive coordinator, possibly because of where I, where I went to school, but I do think he is a really bright defensive mind, and I think that they have a lot more talent pass rushing this year.
33:04
And it's going to be up to that secondary, but I like what I've seen from them. I think that they're going to be really good. Bills, 10 to 1 to win it all. Bills over the Niners from Zach Cohen. Wow.
33:14
Um, it really is though, but you bring it up, the length of time from our 1.0 to our 2.0 betting guide, I don't know how many people have regrets about some of their plays in 1.0, but, like, I have the Niners over, and then substation madness or whatever happened, right?
33:28
All the injuries. Yeah. I had, I had the Commanders making the playoffs and then- Oh man, yeah... Larry Tunsil. I mean, it's just- Yeah... they, they just look so bad, and we haven't even started yet.
33:38
And then, of course, if, if any, if either of them happen, I'll be like, I'm a genius. Thank you, Zach. Long summer. Thank you, Zach. Glad you got- Thanks, guys... glad you got home safely. Zach Cohen, everybody.
33:46
Betting on X on the old Twitter machine, Hardwood Handicappers is the podcast. Most wins, fewest wins, Major League Baseball next.
33:53
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
Back on a Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas, it's radio's Gil Alexander. That's television's Kelly Bittling, everybody, here on set. Yeah. Overlooking the greatest sports book in the world.
34:21
There was a lot of me in the Circa, uh- Oh... documentary last night, survivor documentary. Was there? Yeah. It sucked. You sucked? It sucked. It was terrible. I'm, like, dead serious, it was terrible. It was disgusting.
34:31
You, you hated your performance? Hated it. But I was on, like, I was on, like, three times. It was like, I was, like, half the documentary last night. I sucked at the beginning. This man is so happy.
34:38
I brought up your name too, bro. You brought up my name? Oh, yeah, when I was terrible. Like, I don't even know what I was talking about. [laughs] Swear to God, I don't even know what I was talking about.
34:46
[laughs] What do you mean? You brought my name up while you were being terrible? Oh, y- while I was being ter- so I dragged you down too. [laughs] Great. I dragged you into it too. No.
34:54
I sh- sh- I was much better later in the show though. I was much better later. Were you, like, in the middle of it, were you like, "Not only am I terrible, but so is Gil"? [laughs] I don't even know what...
35:02
I was like, I was like, "Gil Alexander always says it best," and then whatever I said after that was not anything you ever say. [laughs] That's awesome. It's like the worst quote, misquote ever.
35:11
Gil is just gonna attribute a random quote. It's like misquoting. I'm just rambling. I'm like, "I have no idea what that guy just said." As Gil always says.
35:17
There's also the, uh, Matt did warn me this, I think he warned me this episode was coming. It's funny 'cause he, he had to, they had to space me out- [laughs]... because there's, there's bigger Kelly at the beginning.
35:27
That's bad Kelly. Oh. Bigger Kelly's bad Kelly. Oh, you had different weights as well. Yeah, from in season last year. It's just the time that we shoot these things, you know?
35:34
I, I don't think you could have a better promo for episode six of the Circa survivor documentary than that right there. I was really bad. I feel bad. [laughs] I feel bad, but they could've edited me out. Uh-huh.
35:45
It's their, their choice. Gil always says, "Never get the gefilte fish." [laughs] By the way, shout out, uh, RIP to the NFL Pro Bowl game. Yeah, man. Yeah, they finally put it to bed. So- Uh, no game.
35:57
It, uh, uh, I think we can agree, of all the all-star games- Yeah... Major League Baseball- No, they all suck... hockey. They all, they all stink. They all suck. Basketball.
36:06
I don't know, basketball gives football a run for your money, but you can't play fake football. That's the one sport you can't play fake. Okay, that's well said. Yeah. Sean Taylor didn't get the memo, but yes.
36:16
I, I was- We finally put that to bed... I was gonna sit here and argue with you that they- Yeah... they're just all terrible, that I, I can't ch- but you're right, fake...
36:21
You know, it's really hard to play fake football. You can fake the rest. You can. Uh, we got tweets made in the book. Gabadl, I hope I'm saying that right, "Morning Gilly. What would you prefer for your team?
36:31
Not fantasy oriented, just regular season football. A receiver with 2,000 yards and eight touchdowns, or a receiver with 1,000 yards receiving and 16 touchdowns?"
36:40
I'll take the 2,000-yard receiver with the eight touchdowns all day. All day, every day. 'Cause, you know, a touchdown guy could be just a vulture.
36:48
Well, can I ask you about- Catch a one-yard touchdown, so Can I ask you about the Pro Bowl a- again? Yeah. Okay, so the game's gone. They're gonna start, they're gonna honor everybody still. Yes. Yeah.
36:55
So you will be like a Pro Bowl selected player. Uh, it's like '88 or something like that. Uh, but are they gonna do, they just teased us on NFL Network.
37:04
And they were showing old footage when they used to do the, like, skills competitions. I thought that stuff was cool, like 20 years ago. Hmm. They were showing, like, Larry Allen do, like, a million bench presses.
37:13
Like, and do, do you remember when they used to do the 40-yard dashes, and it'd be, like, seven guys against each other? And it was always like the, it was like the old dunk contest.
37:21
It was actually, like, the fastest guys in the league. Like Champ Bailey be out there versus whoe- versus whoever. Oh, like Daryl Green would just crush everybody. It, it was great. I'm like, I'm still down for that.
37:31
Like, that, that part, those were always cool. And just excuse the Super Bowl participants. Like, you guys don't have to come to this. Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah, because you have a game. Mm-hmm.
37:39
Everybody else come on down. Mm-hmm. Uh, Willie B. Benton, "When Botic first became more of a known name amongst tennis fans when he beat Casper Ruud at the '22 US Open, Brad Gilbert kept calling him Botic Van Zandt.
37:50
So now every time I bet him and he wins, I feel obligated [laughs] to play Freebird- [laughs]... in its entirety." Uh, Bobtimus Prime says, "We love spreadsheet radio."
37:59
Uh, Danny Bermett has something to say, but Danny, Danny, you're, you were the guy who, who tweeted after the first day of July and said, "Oh, great bet by Gil on the Red Sox. They're off to a flying start."
38:09
So you're on, like, two-year probation, buddy. All right, we can't read your tweets. I'm sorry. You've did yourself in. J-Rod, GM, uh, let's see what he said. Uh, game week one, circus survivors play...
38:20
Oh, he said he's taking the Steelers. He's taking Todd Wishnev's Blitzburg Steelers. He's fading Tua for survivor, J-Rod is, week one. Okay. Kinda like that. I guess we gotta do, we gotta, we gotta dive into it.
38:30
Are you getting your, your entries this weekend? No. Will get them at some point. I don't know. [laughs] It's a hard no from Kelly. No. I, I don't know, man.
38:38
Jason- I don't- Oh, Jason McKinney, "Do you know who had the Giants yesterday? You guessed it, Toddy Wishnev. Also, when talking baseball today, could you ask a guest about the non-balk call with PCA on third?"
38:47
Oh, the Cubs got just shafted. PCA was great after the game, just, just, like, saying, "Oh, they get something wrong every night. He'll take the fine." He was, he was very angry.
38:56
The Giants, though, I, I, we didn't really do it justice. Uh, Eugenio Suarez hit a grand slam.
39:01
It was part of Cincinnati's seven run ninth inning, as the Reds overcame a six-run deficit, beat the Giants 10 to nine yesterday. [clears throat] This is the old, uh, Nick Bogdanovich whiskey and a revolver game.
39:12
[sighs] Yeah, for real. The Reds had lost 967 consecutive games when trailing by at least six runs entering the ninth, and improved their record in such situations to three and 1,917.
39:27
Now I'm, now you want me to do it from the Giants' perspective? This is from the- Sure... this is from the Giants' perspective. Wanted to make sure to include those numbers in there for you. Uh, what have I done here?
39:36
Three and whatever. Yeah. Shout out to Nick Bogdanovich quick while you're looking that up 'cause they're- Yeah... doing a great job with Boomers. Yeah.
39:42
Uh, it's, you know, in the era of we're seeing Westgate and all these other books shut down, and it's all just the big corporate books, it's great to see a, uh, an independent operator, uh, do, do a great job, frankly.
39:54
Don't, don't limit him. That's what he's saying. [laughs] No, that's what I got out of that. Too late.
39:58
[laughs] Uh, Giants, the n- the s- the Giants franchise, were 2,208 and 0 all time when leading by six-plus runs entering the ninth inning. The Giants have been a franchise heading back to the East Coast since 1883.
40:13
2,208 and 0 before what happened yesterday. Congratulations, Giants bettors. You're welcome. Been a franchise since when? 1883.
40:22
Okay, so, like, w- how much money would you be willing to bet that, like, this definitely did not happen from 1884 to 1905? I, uh, what am I- We are so confident. I love many things about Kelly.
40:36
[laughs] Maybe top of the list is his skepticism of how, uh- Stats... early 20th century, late 19th century people handled such things. 19th century sports stats.
40:48
Like, I'm just supposed to count on whoever was cal- uh, d- taking care of that, that that is 100% accurate. Did you, did you think that those folks weren't, were, like, less
40:58
interested in, in being accurate about that stuff? Um, I wouldn't say that, just everything was, everything was new, right? And there's the, the communication methods, which just, there's, there's none.
41:09
You'd, you had to send, like, a, a, what was it? Like, a carrier pigeon, you know, with your post-game write-up. You're an... You know what you are? You're an old-timerist. [laughs] That's right, yeah.
41:20
That's what you are. Exactly. You're, you're a, absolutely. Jason McKinney. Oh, no, I already read Jason McKinney. Uh, Right Angle Sports letting us know they're gonna be on. Mike Re- Michael Reardon is gonna join us.
41:28
Does have a release coming. Oh, he does. Yes. We have a, we have a live release. We're gonna move college football market on the show. Mm-hmm. Okay.
41:35
And then Ryan High at Fact, "The last hour and 15 minutes of a numbers game with Gil and Kelly and Bill Krackomberger may end up being some of the best content ever aired on Vs.
41:42
And thanks, Crack, for getting World Sports Exchange's Jake Cohen to join the show today." Absolutely. Absolutely. Hey, Gil, before we go to these baseball markets- Yes, sir... can I, uh, ram in some golf, uh, bets?
41:54
Please. 'Cause we've got the tour championships- Ram it through Congress... starting in eight minutes, I believe, is the first tee time. And I do have a couple first round leader bets I added.
42:01
Uh, Xander Schauffele, which I am on, I am on him outright top five, top 10 as well. Played him first round leader 16 to one. We also talked, uh, we, we talked yesterday with Ryan Noonan about Tom Kim.
42:13
I told you, I said that he was one of the long shots. I did like this one. I'm gonna play him first round leader 30 to one. I think that's, uh, I think that's personally for me the best market to, uh, play him this week.
42:23
So 30 to one first round leader on Tom Kim, 16 to one on Xander, and just real quick the other bets I made this week.
42:29
Outrights, Xander 15 to one, Collin Morikawa 20 to one, top five on Xander, top 10 on Xander, top tens on Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay.
42:38
All right, best records in baseball right now, the Milwaukee Brewers are 82 and 51, the Dodgers are 80 and 53. So the, again with, you know-
42:48
26, seven, eight games, depending on what team you're talking about, left in the season. Less than five weeks left in the season. Those are your two best teams record-wise.
42:57
Uh, Tampa Bay Rays right behind that at 79 and 54. For the race for the best record of baseball, then it's the Braves at 78 and 55. So these are the numbers, though. The Dodgers are minus 110.
43:08
The Brewers, who are two games better than them and who beat the Dodgers in terms of this market last year, they're plus 150. Everybody else is 12 to 1 or longer. But I just wanna say the Dodgers,
43:19
and this is where strength of schedule does matter- Mm-hmm... when, when you're down to this short of a runway. The Dodgers have the one, two, three, fourth easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball.
43:29
Aggregate win percentage of opponents 473. Brewers have the 11th hardest. Aggregate win percentage of opponents 509. To me, it's the proper favorite as a result of that. Yeah.
43:41
And I know the Dodgers only care about being one-two, so there is that. Right. They're not, like, super incentivized to win this. But in terms of schedule, I get it. Yeah, and you and I said all summer,
43:53
e- every time we talked about this market for the past two and a half months, three months, it was Brewers, Brewers, Brewers, Brewers. 'Cause the pricing was...
43:59
Remember they, they kept having this same lead basically over the Dodgers. It was always like, "Hey, they're the game or, game or two up on the Dodgers," and they were like four to one in this market. Mm-hmm.
44:08
So we said Brewers almost every time we did this, but now it's all the way down to plus 150. There might be a bet for fewest wins, though. Because right now the Angels and the Rockies both have 52 wins. The
44:21
Athletics have 53 wins, and the Giants have 54 wins. Giants gonna catch them? After yesterday- With, with the sprinkle?... after that collapse? The Giants have the fifth hardest remaining schedule.
44:32
Rockies have the sixth highest. But at 15 to one, you gotta take a flyer on that. Yeah, yeah. Angels, Athletics much s- much easier schedule. Giants 15 to one, that's the obvious play. Fewest regular season wins.
44:45
Don't let them down, John. Coming back on The Numbers Game.
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