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Aug 27, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 27, 2026 | Hour 2
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45:45
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
Uh, Kelly's behind the glass because we have a guest here in studio momentarily. Let me re- uh, read some tweets. Best listeners ever, you guys. Um, Shrek says he, he wants to bet Tat, [laughs]
0:29
uh, Tiago, Agustin, and Tirante 80-1 to win the US Open. Yeah, don't do that. Uh, Uncle Bush, "Zach Cotton morphing into Chris Berman at the end of the segment with the Bills-Niners Super Bowl match-up.
0:38
No one circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills." Chris Heath, "I have $100 on the Giants' worst team record at 25 to one and $400 on the A's worst at plus 650." Oh man, you are set up nicely. What could go wrong?
0:53
I'll tell you what could go wrong. The Col- the Colorado Rockies could still go wrong. Uh, TDG, "Did I just hear Gil say he regret- regrets picking his beloved Commies? Nah, couldn't be." Yeah, I do.
1:02
Jason McKinney, "Do you think the owner of the Niners lawyers will be able to use the substation [laughs] in his defense?" Actually, you know what? You might as well at this point. It's a substation.
1:11
I didn't know what I was doing. Billy Charlebois, "Maybe I'm giving the Browns too much credit, but starting Watson ups the tolerance for Sanders when the inevitable switch is made."
1:19
This is what I've been saying the whole time, Billy. He says, "If they went Sanders to Watson, people would really get mad. It's better to fail with youth and looking like they care."
1:25
I've said that exact same thing maybe five times this summer on the show when we talk about the Browns. It's the only way to play that. Um, and Jared Still, we'll end with this one.
1:34
"Uh, I'm curious, as an old timerist, [laughs] does, does Kelly believe Wilt actually scored 100?" That's a good question.
1:41
I'll have to ask him when he's back in this chair because right now in his chair, it is Circa's inaugural Booby Prize winner back in 2020.
1:48
People don't like when I introduce him with that because it, uh, seems to indicate to them that he's not good at what he's doing, but he won $100,000 and he knew exactly what he was doing.
1:56
It's Michael Monosono in studio. You can follow him on Twitter at BetsandReps, and you will see by his, uh, by his arms why he's BetsandRep. How you doing, man? Back from the gym?
2:06
I, I saw Danny earlier today, this morning, and he... The first thing he asked me is, "Did you come back from the gym?" I said, "It was one of those times. Do I go before? Do I go after?" Oh, yeah.
2:14
I gotta do some, you know, some signing up today. So I think after I do all the sign-ups, I'll probably hit the gym before, uh, the little festivities for contest weekend tomorrow.
2:21
You and Will Hill, uh, steel cage match. Will is a lot bigger than I am. I saw [laughs]- Okay. I looked at Will. Wow. Will, he looks like he's a power lifter. He looks great. Um, okay.
2:31
Let's start with, we'll, we'll get to, 'cause you have a bunch of col- You, you're always good about college football futures. Yeah. You have an NFL season long for us as well.
2:38
But you did win Circa Booby Prize 2020, the first one. You won $100,000. The race to the bottom. Yeah. You made, you made the choice to do that. All these years later now, how many entries are you signing?
2:48
I assume you're in town f- to sign up. Yep. What are you doing this year? So [sighs] when they did the Survivor a few years back, I'd always have a couple entries. I didn't do it last year.
2:59
I, it was just some, it was a mindset with me. I just- Hmm.
3:01
I, I, I just, I like the, the opportunity of each week, five picks, and if you fall behind, you still have a chance at the quarterly, you have a chance at the Booby Prize. But I didn't do it last year.
3:10
I'm still de- deciding. I have a couple hours before I sign up if I'm gonna do the Survivor, but I'm gonna head o- then I'm gonna head over to, uh, the Westgate, do the college contest. Last year I was top 50.
3:20
Didn't place. You only, they only place top 10. What is that? What, explain that contest. Is that season wins? Y- y- that is the, the Westgate is a seven co- It's just straight college football. Oh. Oh, gotcha.
3:30
Seven- Yep, yep. Seven picks per week. Okay. Um, 14 weeks, I believe. It starts with week one, not week zero. And, uh, yeah, I mean, last year I did well, but not good enough to, to place. I know Felika was what?
3:43
Top five or six or whatever. Felika d- by the way, Felika does very well in these contests. Yeah, yeah. He does. But I, and I thought I did well.
3:49
Again, y- y- it, you need the ball to bounce your way, so to speak- Of course... to, to get into, into the money. And last year in the, in the, in the millions I finished t- top 100.
3:59
I finished T83, so I'm gonna take the, the earnings, which was like $2,300, take that, reinvest into this year, and- Wow... and go from there. Yeah, I didn't know you finished 83rd. Yeah, yeah. Okay.
4:09
So then, uh, first of all, which do you think you're better at? Do you think you're better at one or the other, college or pro? I'd like to think I'm better at college.
4:16
I mean, if I go back to 2019, it's a, it's a pinned tweet of mine, um, I discuss how I was leading the, o- it was the Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge. Mm-hmm. And that was a combination of- Pro and college...
4:29
pro and college. Yeah. But most of my picks throughout the year were college football. So that kinda lets you know, right? It kinda lets me know, you know, and you got stagnant lines- Yeah...
4:37
compared to my numbers, so on and so forth. Well, it lets you know what you think you're better at. What, what I think I know. Yeah. Exactly. But then you have some- Yeah...
4:44
you know, you have to at the end, you, you know, when you see those lines move, do you go the opposite? It's like a little gameplay, a little strategy, things like that. So yeah.
4:53
Well, take us through, let's do the NFL specifically. Yeah. So you finished 83rd. Yep. And again, the year you won the Booby Prize, you set out to do it at a certain point. Yeah.
5:00
What is your, take us through your week of handicapping.
5:03
Are there certain benchmarks that you, "I'm looking at this, I'm looking at a practice report, I'm looking at a, at a, you know, looking obviously at how much the line has moved- Yeah... since, uh, release."
5:12
Like, what, what are your things that you are looking at?
5:15
The first four weeks are tough because you're looking, you have your numbers, so to speak, and you're also kinda ref- uh, bouncing them off maybe some other, you know, top handicappers' numbers to see where you're at.
5:26
Um, you know, you're looking at injury reports. You're looking, I think the first couple weeks, how much do the quarterbacks play in the, in the preseason?
5:34
We have a lot of quarterbacks now that don't play in the preseason or get one series, and they're handing the ball off like Justin Herbert did. And you believe that is a detriment to them? I think it is.
5:43
I, I mean, this, my personal belief, I believe there's some data out there that people are talking, that talk about it all the time, and that it hurts the first week or two. I mean, it's like anything.
5:53
I mean, if you don't have... I mean, there's one thing, I guess now these, these practice, you know, they have the two teams that practice. Joint practice, yeah. Yeah, the joint practices. That's pretty intense.
6:03
So I guess we can count that now. But I don't know, it's just not the same as being, your heart rate going in live game situations. And I played college basketball.
6:11
I mean, I don't, I mean, we've always had, we always had three scrimmages before, and I don't know what it would've been like, just your scrimmage, your same players over and over, the same, your same teammates, and then you just go into a game.
6:20
I don't know if, how, oh, I would've done doing that. Uh, you're, you're always very modest about this. I always bury the headline on Mike, 'cause, uh, maybe we shouldn't introduce him with the Circa Booby prize winner.
6:27
Mike, let me see if I get this right. Mike had the most points in any season in the history of Le Moyne basketball. Correct. Yep. A single season scoring leader. Yeah. There you go. Yep. And that's a D1 school, right?
6:40
It's D1 now. It wasn't when you- When I, when I played it was Division II. All right. So we got full scholarships and it- Let's, let's not say that detail every time. Yeah. [laughs] Okay.
6:48
But still, that's, uh, that's awesome. That's, uh, yeah. It's, uh, yeah, it's a 30-year record, so- Okay... it still holds today. Let's, uh, let's start with, uh, college football.
6:56
Let's go to, uh, the American Conference, where I believe Navy, of course, is the, uh, is the short shot in the American. Uh, you're going with East Carolina plus 750.
7:07
Yeah, this is a conference where you look at the top seven teams, they're all within probably four to four and a half points in my power ratings.
7:14
So, you know, if you were to say, "Hey, I like Army to win," I'd be like, "Okay." "Hey, I like USF to win," I'd be like, "Okay."
7:20
Well, I took, I took East Carolina, number one for the number, but number two, their head coach, Blake Carroll. 13 and 5 as a coach. He took over a couple years ago, led them to two bowl games. Last year
7:30
when everyone was going in the transfer portal from his team and, uh, you know, their top quarterback went over to, to Illinois, they lost so many players.
7:37
They went out and the line just kept going and going and going against Pittsburgh, and they went out and beat them outright. So I kind of, you know, you think about things like that, that guy knows how to coach.
7:45
So they did, they, they have, you know, the old, the old saying, "You have two quarterba- if you have two quarterbacks, you really don't have one." Sure. And they're, they, they're in that situation this year.
7:54
Both experienced quarterbacks, um, you know, transfers from Miami and, and Texas Tech, uh, Mitch Griffiths and Emory Williams.
8:03
So I think they just named Griffiths the, the starting quarterback, but Williams is going to get some snaps against Alabama. But I, you know, I, I just look at the schedule.
8:11
If you look at their schedule, they have probably the second easiest, um, in the conference, and we just gotta get to the championship game.
8:18
I know this is not a bet to make the championship game, but if they get to the championship game at plus 750, let's see where the line is and, uh, you know, maybe, you know, for the hedgers out there, you can, you can play back a little bit.
8:28
But I, I, I like them. I have them in, if, in five games as double digit favorites. Three toss-up games versus Memphis, USF, and Army.
8:37
So if they can win two of the three toss-up games and win the five games that they're supposed to win, I think that gets them into the championship game and then we'll go from there.
8:45
They named, uh, Mitch Griffiths their starting quarterback against Alabama? Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. That's a really good one. Yeah, I'm not gonna... I, you know, we'll see how they do.
8:52
I mean, that's, that's their pre-season game, right? Yeah. It's tough 'cause they don't, they don't do those type of games, and it's a tough one to go against one of the, one of the top teams in the country.
8:59
But, you know, we'll look for, I'll look for some things, see how they do offen- They have two new coordinators, too, I forgot to mention.
9:05
Nor- the coordinator from North Texas, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator from Memphis. Memphis very good defense the last couple years.
9:11
North Texas put up 40 points a game, and as we know, their head coach moved down to Oklahoma State, so that's a big thing as well. But they have the stability of the head coach.
9:18
If there was a new head coach in there, probably wouldn't have taken this, but that coach is building a culture there and, uh, I, I like the number at plus 750. Navy and UTSA, shorter shots in the American. Yeah.
9:29
Uh, at plu- they, we're showing, we showed plus 550 now on East Carolina. Would you still play it at that number? Yeah, I think I thought I looked...
9:35
I, uh, 550, I don't know, I thought I, I think Circa has him at plus 750. Oh, they do. Yeah. Okay, well- I looked last night... shop around... shop around. I mean, shop around. Yeah.
9:42
A lot of the numbers that I've given, I, you know, I'm not gonna, this is a silly plug, but on my Substack, it's for free. You can go on there, you can sign up.
9:49
I do have projection sites, uh, uh, projection numbers, excuse me, uh, for all the college teams, all the pro teams. And, you know, when I looked at that, i- in their, and I had them at 5.9 wins for, for East Carolina.
10:03
I said, "Hey, if they can just get to their, you know." Eas- easiest way to get to your Substack is through your Twitter? Yeah, you just go to my Twitter.
10:08
Right on my profile page, just click on it and, again, I'm, I don't, I'm not charging anything. You just go and you can...
10:13
I have a lot of g- interesting articles, too, up on there, so besides just, like, projections and so forth, so. Bets and reps. Yeah. Okay.
10:20
Um, well, let's do the w- we might, this might go into the wall here, but we'll bleed into the next segment. Pac-12. Yeah.
10:26
Um, where Boise State is the short shot at plus 160, followed by San Diego State, and then traditional Pac-12 power, Texas State. Yeah. God. Yeah. Texas State. Who'd you go with here?
10:38
Well, I took, uh, there's a market at DraftKings and also at FanDuel, and I believe BetMGM, to make the conference championship game, and that would be Fresno State. Ah. Yeah. To- To make the conference championship...
10:49
to make the conference championship game at plus, uh, at three to one, plus 300. I think they're down to, like, plus 290, so it's shop, again, shop around. But that was the number I had when I made this bet back in July.
10:59
I mean, right now, Head Coach Matt Entz enters his second year, 9-4 last year in, in the, in, you know, we wanna look at returning production, but they have actually returning starters.
11:10
They have 13 returning starters back, I think seven on the offensive side, six on the defensive side. So he's buil- and building a nice culture there at Fresno State. Um, you know,
11:20
if you look at Phil Steele's homegrown rating, it's a new rating he's give out, they're second in their homegrown rating, which is important. Got some continuity within the, within the, within the, uh, the, the team.
11:30
So I took a shot, looked at their schedule. Uh, defensively, very, very good. They gotta get a little bit better offensively, and I think with that continuity coming back on offense, they will. Okay.
11:40
So again, we just need them to, to make the ch- make the, the title game. East Carolina to win the American plus 750 or w- wherever you can get them.
11:47
I don't know what the ties you can get, Fresno State to make the Pac-12 title game. More College and Pro with Mike next.
12:02
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12:13
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12:20
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12:31
Bet sharp, look square. It's Gil Alexander, Michael Montesano in studio with us here at Circa Resort & Casino. He is, uh, in town signing up for contests, as so many are this weekend- Yeah... for contest weekend.
12:43
Um, gonna do some here, gonna do some at the Westgate, still deciding on survivor. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Still deciding on survivor. Definitely gonna take the, the $2,300 I won, reinvest- Yeah... at least two in the millions.
12:55
Um, probably do two in, in the West- in the Sou- in the Westgate, uh, college contests, and I think that's 500, uh, an entry, so I'll do a couple there. And you say two million.
13:05
So is that bec- now, will you, do you do the same pick on both the whole way until you get to, like, a Thanksgiving situation? For the most part, I did that last year.
13:13
I think I was, when I was on with, and I, Felika chimed in. I was like, "Do I do the opposite? When do I do the opposite?" Because I wanna somehow, you know, at least place. It was going into the last week or two.
13:23
Mm-hmm. So I kept all my same picks, I think, the second to last week, and then I did do the opposite, because if you go 0 and five and you're on the same picks, you don't place, I mean, it's, it's brutal. Brutal.
13:33
And so [chuckles] I did do that. I went three and two, and I was able to get in the top 100. By the way, I probably also should have said, so many things I forgot.
13:39
One, most points ever in the Le Moyne College basketball season. Two, you came on here last year, probably should established your street cred, and you went four and 0 on these. Yeah.
13:48
Last year I had three conference, uh, championship, uh, winners. I had Tulane at three to one to win the American. They cashed. I had James Madison plus 290 to win the Sun Belt. They cashed.
14:00
And, um, I also had a big one. This was, uh, Texas Tech at plus 650, and they cashed. And I also had an NFL alt under with the Jets on the show, and I will get to that, another alt under as well. Yeah.
14:12
But yeah, and two years ago I was the bridesmaid. Last year, I, you know, I, I saw the pot of gold. Two years ago, two years ago, yeah, you ha- you got them all to the conference championship. Yeah.
14:21
And then they all got smacked. They all got smacked. Yeah. It was Louisiana Lafayette plus 650. They got to the championship game, got crushed. I think their QB got hurt at the beginning of that game, too.
14:30
[laughs] Um, then I had Iowa State at plus 950, plus 975. They go against Arizona State. They actually were the favorite. I think it dropped to a pick 'em. Yeah. They got crushed. And then the last one was Miami of Ohio.
14:43
They were plus 320. They get to the conference championship game, and they got crushed. Man, distant memory after last year. Yeah. All right.
14:49
So in case you missed it, uh, Mike is on East Carolina to win the Ameri- [clears throat] pardon me, to win the American Conference. He got 'em at plus 750. They are still plus 750 here, you believe, at Circa?
14:59
I thought I looked at it last night. Yeah. I think it still is. I don't know. Uh, DraftKings had plus 550. Definitely shop around.
15:04
Fresno State to make the Pac-12 title game at three to one, and then Notre Dame, we haven't gotten to this one yet, you have Notre Dame to make the College Football Championship game, plus 330.
15:17
I think a lot of people can get behind this, actually. Yeah.
15:20
I mean, last year I had a, when they lost their two games, I jumped on Notre Dame at 40 to one to win the title, and we, I mean, we can rehash should they have been, they shouldn't they have been in.
15:30
Uh, obviously Miami should have been in- Yep... over them, but, you know- Absolutely... you look at Alabama and Oklahoma, I think Notre Dame statistically was a lot better than both those teams.
15:38
And one of the statistics I look at is adjusted scoring margin and adjusted p- uh, points per play margin, and Notre Dame was number two in adjusted scoring margin.
15:47
And then that's an indicator of h- really how well your team is, 'cause if you go look back at seven of the last nine national champions, according to my num- uh, my adjusted scoring margin ranking, uh, they won the national championship, and Indiana was one last year.
16:01
You can go on and on back. But y- you know, you look at the points per play margin, they were number one, and that, that's a true teller how really good they are on both sides of the ball.
16:09
And so yeah, this year they have 70%, uh, of their, uh, returning production back.
16:16
I'm not an expert as far as ranking defenses and offenses, but it looks like they kinda have the t- uh, the, the number one defense in the country, if not two or three. Their schedule is conducive.
16:26
They get Miami at home. Mm-hmm. I have them second in my power ratings, um, right behind Ohio State. I think Ohi- a lot of people are sleeping on Ohio State this year. They lose a lot of talent, but they just reload.
16:37
Their offense is gonna be fantastic. So instead of taking them to win the title, 'cause that's gone down some places, I saw, I believe, at FanDuel, at plus 330 just to make the, the National Championship game,
16:50
and I, I think that's worth a bet. You know, if they make the championship game, you wanna then throw some money on them to, to equal to what they are now. You can go ahead and do so.
16:57
Good, good on those books for putting up that market, to make the, the championship game. I te- yeah, they have it, like, to make it, to make the semis. Yeah.
17:04
There's a lot of, there's, you know, there's a lot of good, uh, markets out there right now, and that's why I like this conference is, you know, I, I was on your show in early A- in early August, and I had Clemson just to make the ACC championship game- Yes...
17:17
at plus 700. It's seven to one.
17:19
So again, you know, they don't have to quite get there, 'cause we all know Miami's, is legit, and they're pr- they're probably gonna win it, but you can find some teams just to make the, the, the title game.
17:28
All right, let's go to the NFL. You have a season long. Is this an alt win total here? Yeah, it is. It's, uh, alt on the under of the Carolina Panthers at plus 140 when I got on.
17:39
I think you could, y- plus 130 to 140 you could still get it. I mean- You don't buy it. I don't know how... I mean, we all can go back last year. How did they make [chuckles] the playoffs?
17:49
They kinda backed in in that, that awful division. And then gave the Rams a run for their money. And then they gave the Rams a run for their money, but I'm not buying, uh, this year. And you look at Bryce Young,
18:00
he hasn't really played much in the preseason. Their backup is, is, is Kenny Pickett, so- If Young gets hurt, then you're going to pick it. Their defense is... I, I'm not, I'm not a fan of their defense coming back.
18:13
All their advanced metrics last year were below average.
18:17
Their schedule is, according to my s- strength of schedule rank, and I'm sure very similar to a lot of h- however everyone else does it as well, they're fourth hardest. And I have not made the bet yet.
18:30
Someone could beat me to it. I might go down there just 'cause I'm talk- I'm putting it out in the universe, but to be the, the, to, to be the last team to win a game, I think is the way less.
18:38
But they're- Oh, we won that a few, a couple years ago. Yeah. Yeah. They're like 34 to one right now. Just go look at... The only, the game I'm c- I'd be concerned about would be at Cleveland, I think it's week three.
18:47
Uh, you know, Cleveland stinks, we all know that, but it's at Cleveland. And, you know, Cleveland's got a, a, a five and a half win total.
18:54
They gotta win some game, but if you look at Carolina's record to start the s- s- start the year, I mean, they could be 0 and 6, 0 and 7, 0 and 8. But then you still have Miami [laughs] and Arizona who- Yeah...
19:06
who are not the greatest as well, so. [laughs] Uh, by DVOA, by the way, for those who, uh, care about such things, the Panthers were the 10th worst team to ever make the playoffs last year.
19:16
I, that's the first time I'm hearing that stat. That's incredible. 10th worst ever, yeah.
19:19
And there's some, again, I was mentioning you the other day about Bryce Young, 'cause Kelly, Kelly l- [laughs] We, every time we bring up his name, Kelly likes to shout, "What, we didn't even know if he's any good."
19:27
[laughs] Um, he's a better... I do. But the, the two things that he did improve were he didn't, the, the biggest thing is he didn't turn the ball over as much. Yeah.
19:35
Even bigger perhaps than that, he avoids sacks now- Yeah... far greater than he ever did. Yeah. Um, so that's the positive spin on them. But yeah, they are, you know, they're not projected to, what is it?
19:47
Uh, they were 23rd in pass block- Yeah... win last year. They were 28th in run block win rate. I mean it's- It's funny you say 23rd because- Yeah... uh, in my adjusted points per play margin, they were 23rd.
19:57
Adjusted scoring margin, they were 23rd. And I think yards per play margin, [laughs] they were 22nd. [laughs] What is the, what is the NFL, and we all take in media, and you hear everybody's opinions.
20:07
What's the thought that you've heard or the bet that you've heard made by a lot of NFL, uh, folks this off-season, or folks that are betting the NFL, that you just simply can't get behind?
20:18
Is there one that you keep hearing where you're like, "I just don't get this"? I mean, the Texans, everyone's writing them into- Everybody...
20:25
everyone's writing them into the champ- it, either the AFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl. And we all know their defense is, is fantastic, but until I can see their offensive line protect Shroud, and can we see C.J.
20:38
Shroud do what he did the, uh, rookie year? Couple years back, yeah. You know, a couple year, it was a couple years back. I, I, I don't know.
20:44
You gotta see it to believe it, and but, you know, we could all make our, our, our projections and what, what's gonna happen, but do we really know the first two, three, four weeks? We don't know. [laughs] We don't know.
20:56
We, I mean, that's the one thing, right? We al- the l- we, the one thing we have learned is that no matter what our convictions are in the off-season, um, don't get too attached to them. Yeah, yeah.
21:06
That could change very quickly. What's, uh...
21:08
Give us your, your most outlying, uh, obviously you have the b- you have the bet you wanna make on the Panthers, but what's another sort of outlying opinion you have on a team?
21:16
I really like the New Orleans Saints this year. They are, they have the third easiest schedule i- in, in the, in the league.
21:23
You take away their first two games, something that I, I mentioned in, in my projections write-up.
21:28
Maybe wait till after their first two games, 'cause I, if I'm o- I believe they have Baltimore and, um, I'm looking right now. Balt- yeah, the Lions and, uh, the Ravens. Go look at their schedule after that.
21:37
You might be, they go 0 and 2, you might be able to get an adjusted win total. Yeah. You might be able to get a division t- uh, uh, odds better. Um, I mean, does anyone trust the Falcons this year?
21:47
I mean, I just talked to you about the Panthers, um- To have basically won that, won that job because there was no one else to take it. Yeah. A- and Kellen Moore is a pretty good coach. Look what he did last year.
21:59
I mean, he had nothing last year and they won, what, four or five games? [laughs] Yeah. For the, for the Saints after at Lions, at Ravens, it's home Raiders- Yeah... home Falcons, home Vikings. Yeah. Uh, at Giants,
22:11
then a Paris game against the Steelers before they have a bye. Yeah, yeah. I mean, so I, I, I'm not betting enough. So wait for, wait for them to go 0 and 2?
22:18
I wait for them to go 0 and 2, and then just, you know, and I'll probably send it out on X or my Substack with everyone, just like, "Okay, I officially made the bet," but we'll see.
22:26
Hopefully their odds are, you know, they're a little bit better to win the division. Yeah. By the way, after the bye, they have home Browns, home Panthers. Yeah.
22:33
They're like the opposite of the, uh, Chargers- Chargers, yeah... who have two really easy games early- Easy games, and then it's brutal... and then it's the gauntlet. Michael Monosato, everybody. Betsandreps on Twitter.
22:43
Thank you, man. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it. Always great seeing you. Uh, Michael Reardon from Right Angle Sports with a live college football release on the show next. Get ready, Mike.
22:55
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23:09
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23:16
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23:26
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23:37
Kelly was saying, uh, he was very upset with his own performance on, uh, episode six of the Circa Survivor doc. Mm. Well, uh, let's see. You got, you, somebody, somebody said something on Twitter here.
23:46
Billy, Billy Charlebois says, uh, "Kelly claims he was terrible in this week's Survivor doc. Spoiler alert, he was just fine. I am sure he is thrilled to be the lead in the thumbnail picture on YouTube for said episode."
23:57
That was funny. That was funny. Did you see that by any chance? I did catch that, yes. 'Cause it, it c- it's kind of the, you gotta be careful with graphics. It kind of, like, implied that I was one of the remaining 10.
24:07
I was like, "I forgot about all those millions I won last year." [laughs] All right, we are very pumped. Obviously, uh, we're pumped to have Crack come on, and Jay Cohen coming on from World Sports Exchange.
24:16
We're also very pumped to, uh, have this, uh, this outfit on every week- Mm-hmm... and this gentleman on every week, uh, because we used to have them on, Right Angle Sports, who along with Dr.
24:26
Bob, the pillars, I would say, of, uh, those that, uh, sell picks throughout the, you know, for those of us who have followed this game for so long.
24:36
Right Angle Sports, uh, we would have Michael Craig on more, our buddy Michael Craig more o- more often than most, um, from Right Angle Sports, and Mike would come on, and we would do the whole release, and well, now we have former 1970s Washington Bullet player, Mike Reardon, coming on the show.
24:51
No, it's a different Mike Reardon. It's Mike Reardon from Right Angle Sports. You can follow him on Twitter at mikeR_RAS. That's underscore RAS. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:01
Mike, good morning to you, sir. Thanks for having us, and thanks for thinking of Right Angle Sports to fill the huge shoes of, uh, the great Dr. Bob. Um, I heard a video earlier in the summer.
25:14
You actually called it the last honest handicapper. I'll, I'll leave that there. Uh, but Dr. Bob definitely deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. But thanks for having us. Thank you.
25:21
That's very, that's very nice of you to say, to say that about Bob.
25:25
Uh, all right, Mike, before we get to, 'cause this is, everyone's excited to, to see the release here or to get to the release, and we'll go through the procedure, 'cause there is a procedure.
25:32
We have a procedural- That's right... we have a system here. Instructions. Real quick before we do this, couple week zero thoughts. Uh, you, we were talking a little bit off-air about Stanford, Hawaii.
25:43
What specifically did you wanna bring up about that game? Yeah, so interestingly, we've been doing some, uh, research.
25:49
They don't have a, uh, a confirmed injury report from the team, but, uh, t- looking at the podcasts, talking to the beat writers, looking at the boards, they actually have, uh, some real cluster injuries at the offensive line position.
26:02
Uh, six of the 17 offensive linemen were not able to dress at the end of camp, and a couple of them are confirmed out.
26:08
Um, I will say with 14,500 college football players and about 40% of them changing every year, if you see me look down, yes, I am oc- occasionally looking for some notes and looking for some names, so that's, that's what will be happening.
26:22
Anyway, Prongos is their best offensive lineman, and he's like an NFL draft prospect, possibly a first-rounder. He's very questionable to play. Um, they've got a guy, Pale, he's the right guard. He's definitely out.
26:34
He's supposed to be the right guard. Uh, Fatigue coulda be the, was supposed to be the left guard. He's definitely out. He tore all his tendons out in his knee. And Mahia, uh, ACL.
26:42
It's his third straight season he's out. So we're not positive Prongos is missed, but they're definitely, they went from thinking it was, uh, precautionary at, to thinking the back spasms were pretty bad.
26:51
He might not end up playing. That game, of course, in The Bay in Palo Alto, 7:00 PM Eastern, 4:00 PM Palo Alto time on Saturday.
27:00
And then, uh, because everybody has a thought on UNC, TCU, what would you like to add to that discussion? Yeah, a couple interesting things. Uh, Petrino we're thinking is gonna improve the offense on UNC.
27:12
And then, uh, you know, on the TCU side, interestingly, I, they ha- they haven't really talked about this too much, but they might have lost two starters because one of their impact transfers from the Conference USA, who was Conference U- USA Player of the Year defensively last year, punched a starting receiver, and they both, uh, definitely the, the puncher is definitely out, and the guy who got punched, who's claiming he was sucker punched, it sounds like, at least Brad Powers mentioned he thinks he's gonna miss as well.
27:37
So that's interesting there. Okay, without further ado, 'cause we wanna give an explanation on what the pick is, let's go through the procedure for those who are new to this, and this will move markets.
27:46
This is, uh, the effect of Right Angle Sports. Um, what Mike is gonna do, he's gonna, we're gonna put out a play here. He's gonna s- he's gonna say a play. Um, could be a side, could be a total.
27:58
And what you will do is then you will add it to, uh, your bet slip in whatever book you are betting, or maybe it's multiple books. You will add that bet to your bet slip. Um, we'll give you some time.
28:08
We'll, we'll sort of filibuster. We'll give you some time to find that bet. You get it into your bet slip. And then Mike will say either go or cancel.
28:15
You may have heard Steve Fezzik so many times on this show, uh, do this when he's giving out a play 'cause he likes this system so much. [laughs] So it'll be go or cancel.
28:22
Yeah, Gil, just for the record, I heard you guys talking earlier in the week. Yeah. If, le- next time you have Fezzik on, will you confirm that, that he didn't invent this method- [laughs]...
28:30
and that it is actually a Right An- Wrangle Sports Edward Golden invention? Okay, I will. 'Cause you said he might take it, so I sh- just make sure.
28:36
Listen, if, if Edward Golden, who was the founder of Right Angle Sports, invented it, Stevie will figure out a way to make it his own at some point. Um, so- No doubt...
28:44
so we'll put it in the ba- [laughs] let's put it in the bet slip. Uh, you'll get 30 seconds to find it. At that point, we will go to Mike, and Mike will say either go or cancel. If he says go, you bet it immediately.
28:57
If he says cancel, that means it's not a bet. You should remove it from the bet slip, and we will do this process all over again. Mm-hmm. And it could happen a second time.
29:06
I think when Mike Craig was on, we actually did it a couple times once. Yeah, we did a couple times. Yeah, it was fun. A- and why, why do we do this?
29:11
'Cause all the books are listening, all the other services are listening, all that, all that stuff. So there's- Yep... a reason why we gotta do this with these guys. And books handle this differently. Mm-hmm.
29:20
Some will move immediately, dramatically. Some will pull it from the board. Okay. Uh, Mike, you ready to do this? Sure, let's go. Okay.
29:29
So the first, first bet we're gonna put in our bet slip is 308 Florida State minus 31. Okay. I love the rotation number as well. That's right. 3- 308 Florida State. Old school. Yeah, old school.
29:44
Uh, this should be high up on the board. This should be easy to find, though. 308 Florida State, 'cause it's week zero. There's not that many games, right? 308 Florida State.
29:51
Kelly Tidwell and his Florida State Seminoles. Yeah, a lot expected this season. Okay. High hopes. A little stall. Like everybody, a little more time in case they can't find it. Yeah, a little time.
30:00
This'll, this'll be, th- 30 seconds will be needed starting week one. But okay, I think everybody's got it there. 308 Florida State minus 31. Okay. Mike, the floor is yours This is a go bet. Florida State minus 31.
30:14
This is a go Go. Kelly, go. Scramble. Go. Okay, Florida State is a go minus 31. Florida State taking on New Mexico State. Florida State minus 31 is a go. Okay. Um, appreciate the drama of that.
30:31
Give us, uh, the explanation. Give us the thumbnail. No problem. What do, what do you got going here? Yeah, so we got...
30:36
Yeah, one of the, one of the big things here, we're not big trends folks at, uh, Right Angle Sports, but when the, the trends kind of, uh, m- make sense, we will lean into a little bit.
30:44
Uh, Norvell's been 6-2 against the spread against the, uh, G5 and FCS teams. He's also 10-6, uh, when he's a favorite of 14 or more. So when he has a chance to kinda run it up on the o- overmatched teams, he's done it.
30:57
He's actually 20 and 30 against the spread against everyone else, which makes sense, 'cause he's on the hot seat. And, you know, they have SMU and Alabama next, so I mean, he's really coaching for his career here.
31:08
He's actually taken control of the play calling duties, so he'll have his finger- fingerprints a little bit more on that. Um, you know, last year they outgained, uh, ACC foes by 610 yards.
31:20
Uh, they actually outgained in seven of their eight match-ups. Um, there's also some major injury stuff in the match-ups here that's a big problem for New Mexico State. Uh, they have a safety, Aya.
31:32
Uh, he's out for the season. He's supposed to be their turnover machine back there. They have a Cincinnati transfer, Barnes, who, uh, very questionable to play.
31:39
They actually have two converted corners playing safety in this game. One of them was a fourth-string corner last year, and they're going up against, uh,
31:47
uh, Robinson and Danzy for FSU, who are maybe the most explosive duo of receivers in the country. So that's on one side of the ball.
31:54
And then, uh, on New Mexico State, offensively they have a quarterback who's coming in from the Southern Conference, Trey Hedden. Athlon ranked him 138th out of 138 quarterbacks, so that's- Ooh... not a great sign.
32:05
In the Southern Conference, he actually had the second-most turnover-worthy throws. That's not good. And New Mexico State last year, they ran it two and a half yards per play, so they can't run the ball.
32:15
They lost almost all their offensive line. Uh, all the tight ends are actually injured. They have a converted high school quarterback playing tight end. They got lots of issues. We like Florida State here, laying the 31.
32:25
Okay. Florida State minus 31, the, uh, inaugural, at least for 2026, the inaugural Right Angle Sports release on this here show. And Mike, we will get, uh, we will get you every week on here? This is your gig? Yeah.
32:38
G- it's, it sh- well, we'll see. I think we'll- Okay... probably reevaluate. I'll go back to the team and see how we did. Can I c- say one thing? Please. I heard you talking about the Pro Bowl.
32:46
I heard the Pro Bowl died today. It, it did. And I thought something, yeah, kinda interesting. So everyone talks, like, "Oh, if you bet on the Pro Bowl, that's just, you're a degenerate. You know, what are you doing?"
32:58
In the mid-2000s, they had Rice-Irvin. They kinda changed up the format, and what happened was they were trying to save the game at the time. And so they actually kinda started playing harder.
33:07
And what happens is the total was, like, 87, and they started playing defense. So what happens is you have these offenses that have never played together. The defenses actually try, and it ended up being 22-21.
33:18
It went under by about 44 points, and th- that happened another time in 2017. So I would just say, I thought those were great bets on the Pro Bowl. Rest in peace for the Pro Bowl. There it is. Pouring out a- There we go.
33:28
Pour. Yeah... Mike Reardon pouring out a 40 for the Pro Bowl. By the way, Florida State at, at offshore pillars go from 31 to 32. Yeah. Keep picking up. Per this release right here. This rule.
33:38
Quick, quick note, RAS picks backslash vsin. We got a discount for the week zero, w- week one games. We got a FCS release today at 1:00 PM Eastern and 10 Pacific Time, which is the Right Angle Sports time zone.
33:50
If Mike didn't say that, Edward would've lashed him. Well done, Mike. Thank you, sir. Crack is next. No problem.
33:56
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:11
Back on the numbers game live from Circle Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. Uh, shout out to, uh, Mike Reardon from, uh, Right Angle Sports. Live release. We're gonna do that every week on the show.
34:22
You saw this one. This is week X, right? So I mean, excuse me, week zero. So it's, it's less of a board.
34:28
They'll probably move more in future weeks, but this one immediately goes from 31 to 32 pretty much everywhere on Florida State. That will happen with every Right Angle Sports release.
34:36
Uh, let me get through some tweets here before we get to Crack. We got some early Crack happening here this morning. Uh, will he be betting? My apologies.
34:42
Uh, I was talking about the 2021 US Open, and I totally agree with Zach. Felix Auger-Aliassime getting overlooked more than anyone else. He's made multiple semis here and can beat anyone in the draw.
34:51
Yeah, he's made two semis there at the US Open, including last year, which we bet him, uh, profusely during that tournament last year. Russell Smith got East Carolina 8 to 1 to win the American a couple weeks ago.
35:01
Go Pirates. Yeah, Michael Montesano was on them. Chris Lee Miller says, "Should we be fading Mike because he won the booby prize? Lol."
35:07
Well, just keep in mind that he made a conscious decision to go for the booby prize, and if you're doing it that way, you're just as good as going the other direction, uh, after a certain point.
35:17
Uh, Darren Frazier, "It's already the best day of the week on a numbers game with Crack, man, but today is a new pinnacle. How does Crack top this?
35:23
I'm also, I'm almost expecting him to bring John Gotti back from the dead to tell war stories about backroom gambling and that other life. LFG." Talking about Jay Cohen coming up on the show here next hour.
35:33
Um, Rich, "Fellas listening to, uh, VSiN's By The Book before you guys this morning. They discussed and played a clip of pro golfers like Scheffler, him, and others betting $100 a hole during their tournament rounds.
35:44
How is that legal, or did I mishear? I was just starting my commute to work." I did not hear, uh, about that. Um, they mightna, they might wanna simmer that down, keep it quieter.
35:54
Uh, mine062073, "Thoughts on a Broncos Saints division winner parlay, plus 980." I actually like the Broncos in the AFC West. I am not sold on the Saints as some are in the NFC South.
36:06
I think that's the most free-for-all division, uh, there is. Martin Bernstein adds, "Mike Reardon, wow, former Nic also." Uh, I did mention the Washington Bullet part with Mike Rutan. He sounds great.
36:15
Uh, Game Time Jones got minus 31, minus 105, already up to minus 32, minus 115. And, um, one more, this is from Ice Goon, anticipating the Jay Cohen arrival.
36:24
He says, "Guys, thanks to Ken Whitecner, I got to meet Jay Cohen at Nellis the day after Thanksgiving around 2001. I recall many things like it happened yesterday. Twice he had to go outside for inmate lineup.
36:35
I bought him a sandwich and soda. I bought him one more soda. For the second soda, I put 50 cents in the vending machine. For the 35 cent soda, I asked him to give me the 15 cents change.
36:43
Jay said he was banned from touching money. I asked Jay if online casino games were honest and legit. No verbal answer, but gave me a look of no." Um, Jay, [laughs] Jay, Jay Cohen coming up on the show.
36:53
Thank you for that, Ice Goon, um, for that, uh, your encounter with him. We should probably bring that up with Jay off-air and see if he re- if he remembers that.
37:00
Bill Krackenberger is the man responsible for bringing, uh, the founder, one of the three founders of World Sports Exchange, Jay Cohen, onto the show next hour. Bill is with us a little earlier today. How you doing, man?
37:11
Good. How you doing, all right? Well, we have, we have an intro, for God's sake. Yeah, where's the music? Let's do it. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. [laughs] You don't, you don't talk without the music. No. That's the deal.
37:28
Well, I, I did, but I did because I was refer- or talking about, like Ice Goon there, when he said that Jay was banned from touching money. He was. I wonder if that's still the case.
37:36
[laughs] I mean, 'cause he's, uh, you know, I, I don't wanna ruin it for the people that are gonna be watching, but, and listening. Um, he has given up his citizenship, which I didn't ask him on my podcast.
37:47
I wonder why I did that. Like, just, just to fight... So, so he- Oh, I will. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we have a lot of questions for him. It's, it's a, um... By the way, you did a fantastic job interviewing him- Oh, thanks...
37:56
on the Wager Talk, uh, Podcast- Yeah... with Jay Cohen.
37:58
Yeah, a good 25 que- I wrote that out, like, I wrote some stuff out there, and I had some friends and, uh, w- write some stuff out, some questions for him that I trust in the industry that's been around 30, 40 years, you know, 30 years plus in the industry, and, uh, we come up with some really good questions for him, and he answered every single one.
38:14
Yeah. Got to be a little sensitive towards the end, but he answered it and- Did he get sensitive at the end? No, he didn't get sensitive. Yeah. I was a little bit, you know, I, I just didn't wanna...
38:22
The guy cam- came out, came on my show. It was, like, the first show he did. I didn't wanna insult him at all, and, uh, he answered every question.
38:30
And I, we asked him yesterday, we're gonna, we're gonna ask a couple- Well, I'm-... tough questions here today... I'm gonna ask a couple, yeah, I'm gonna ask a couple tough questions.
38:35
Yeah, we're- 'Cause I, I just, I do think, again, the name of the book, uh, J- Jay Cohen is coming on the show. Jay is one of the three founders, for those who are just tuning in now.
38:42
He's one of the three founders of World Sports Exchange. For those of us of a certain age, World Sports Exchange has a special place in our heart because it really was revolutionary.
38:51
It wasn't like the other offshore books- Correct... where, I don't know, we always knew there could be a day where those shut down and we w- we'd lose our money or whatever.
39:00
This, we didn't think would happen with World Sports Exchange, but World Sports Exchange was revolutionary, uh, online, in terms of, like, live betting.
39:07
What you see in prediction markets today where they settle at zero and one, they did all that.
39:11
Um, cash outs, or at least their version of cash outs, which were so much better than today's version of cash outs in, uh, regulated sports books. Um, uh, the list goes on and on with them.
39:22
Golf was just wildly popular at World Sports Exchange back in the day, and it, it's, it's an amazing story of someone who was an entrepreneur at heart, who took, who, who manifested these ideas.
39:35
They went offshore to do this. They believed they were doing it all above board, all the advice they were given, and they, and they dotted their I's and crossed their T's.
39:45
They wanted to do it the best way possible, and then it all just came down back at 'em. And then there was- And there's so much to talk about... there was a lot of sports books that closed down and screwed people. Yeah.
39:56
Um, you know, I'm betting offshore since, you know, back then. I was betting, uh, from the '90s and then, uh, you know, like '93, '94, Dennis Ataya, ESP, people know these names.
40:07
Um, of course, the guy that owns, uh, Sports Market, uh, Aces Gold, Charles Thirlwander. Um, you know, I'm throwing names out there because, uh, they deserve to have names thrown out there.
40:19
Um, y- there was, uh, New Age bets, Lance, uh, old SkyBook partners. These, these guys all didn't pay people. They closed down and, and screwed people, including myself, out of a lot of money. BetPanAm in Panama.
40:31
BetPanAm. They opened up, and they were supposed to be the big book and, you know, um, you know, all these books, uh, opened and took people's deposits and stole 'em.
40:39
Uh, not with the intention, they all wanted to have big business. They thought they were gonna be big, big business guys. Um, only the strong survive.
40:46
There's a couple books out there now that are still in business that have been there 30 years and, um, you know, but, but all those other books, either they got taken over by someone... I remember the, the Black Friday.
40:56
Was it Black Friday? I don't know, that, that might have been in poker days. That was poker. That was poker, okay. Yeah, yeah.
41:00
There was a, let's call it Black Monday, when, um, the government came down on Pinnacle and Pinnacle Sports closed down and, uh, you know, you didn't know if w- if, if your money was safe or not, you know?
41:12
Uh, so it, it, it was a scary situation back then, but I never expected World Sports Exchange to close and not pay people. Yeah. I never expected that. They, they were, like, revolutionary.
41:23
They were ahead of their times with the, you know, the buy and sell, just like they- Mm-hmm... they were the Calci of, of, uh, you know, before- Yeah... Calci and Poly Market were here.
41:30
They, they, they were, they were it, and they were, these guys were geniuses. So, um, the, the sad thing is, I, I didn't mention this on the show with him, and I won't mention it now either.
41:39
Uh, well, no, I think I did mention it. You know, the day they closed down, his partner put a gun to his head and killed himself and- Yeah... uh, Steve. Steve Schillinger.
41:47
Steve Schillinger, yeah, put a gun to his head and killed himself. So, um, but I heard rumors about why they closed down and, and the reasons why and, and, and Jay said, "No, that's not-" No, it's all in the book...
41:57
"nothing to do with me." No, the book is- But the-... the book is fantastic. I read it and- But I, I'm probably going ahead of myself here, sorry.
42:01
Yeah, no, we'll, we'll get to all that because, yeah, no, and his partner, Steve, who really was...
42:06
I mean, you think about also, like, the, the algorithms that exist today for all of these prediction markets and [laughs]And for regulated sportsbooks. This is one dude, Steve Schillinger, his partner- Right...
42:17
who did everything. Literally, like the live betting, he would sit there through the game to the very end creating lines. Yeah. He was a true genius. But, um, yeah, he...
42:28
And, and like so many sports bettors, and in his case, setting the odds, um, he views things through probability, and for him, the only choice to make was to kill himself at that point. Wow.
42:42
So it's just, it's an incredible s- we'll get to all of it with Jay. Yeah. Um. Yeah. And, but let me just show this before we go to some other stuff. Sure. This is, this is the- That's amazing.
42:50
That, that, that's the old site right there. This is the old site.
42:53
This is World Sports Exchange, and the beauty, now, 'cause you're probably looking, for those who have never seen this before, be like, "Wow, that's what you're talking about?" Yes.
42:59
This was such a departure from what we were used to with other sportsbooks at that time online, because remember the pop-ups and just how you had to, you had to get through all those, the just- Yes...
43:10
the nonsense that was happening on the screen. They purposely made this as simple as possible to just, you could-- They just wanted ease of use.
43:18
Just make, let people make bets and let them, you know, let this be an easy experience. So that was the other part of them that was just so great.
43:26
Yeah, you know, the reason why I was told about this book about two months ago, I had a guy that, uh, was in the industry for years and said, "Did you, did you hear about this book that Jay Cohen wrote?" I said, "No."
43:37
He said, "It's fantastic." An- a second person called me up that didn't even know that guy and said, "Do you know about this book? I'm 60 pages in. It's unbelievable. I can't put it down."
43:46
And then like, like three different people that don't know each other, all people that were in, in the business back in the day, all called me or text me or something about this book, and then even Gil on his phone- Oof...
43:59
I should tell Jay, I mean, you read the book on your phone- On my phone [laughs]... in like two days. Yes. Wow. It was un- I couldn't put it down. Yeah. I was like, I can't wait.
44:07
He, he, again, and we'll get to him when he's here. Yeah, we're, we're gonna have him on the show.
44:09
But he has, he has an, a amazing detail of the court proceedings, and it's just, it's, it's an amazing, and it's a horrible. Like, it's, it's both a fantastic story and a horrible story. It is. It is.
44:20
All at the same time. We had a good time with the vets last night again. Yes, sir, we did.
44:24
And we, uh, I told some stories last night that I probably never told before about the, the growing up on the boardwalk and gambling on the boardwalk, and I, you know, breaking into it maybe when we get back from the break.
44:33
I think you've told it once on the show, but let's re- Okay... let's revisit it. Yeah. 'Cause it's a, it's a great old-school crack-as-a-kid story.
44:39
Do that on the other side, and Jay Cohen will join us eventually here in about 20 minutes on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
