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Aug 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 28, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 28, 2025 | Hour 1
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45:29
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. My name is Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey.
0:22
How we doing? Good morrow. How you doing? I'm doing fantastic. Good morrow to you, sir. Thank you. Thursdays mean Crack, Bill Krackomberger, unscripted.
0:32
Uh, hour number two of three, although this is the last week we'll have him in hour number two. Starting next week we'll have him in hour number three. Does that make sense?
0:40
Yep, just smart, smart marketing there by Bill Krackomberger. Smart marketing. I was like, "Hey, what do you wanna do? You wanna do s- hour two or hour three?" He goes, "Let's, uh, do hour two to promote hour three."
0:48
There, there you go. Uh, we have a special treat with Billy on today. Uh, also on the show, courtesy of the Crack man, a gentleman by the name of Matthew Boyer.
0:59
Matthew Boyer pled guilty last year to running an illegal sports betting operation, among other charges, uh, that recruited hundreds of clients including Ippei Mizuhara, who, uh, is the former interpreter of, uh, Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani.
1:14
Tomorrow he will be sentenced. Today he's on a Numbers Game. So I look forward to that. Can't wait for that discussion. That should be awesome. Cannot wait. Oh. Cannot wait.
1:24
"Gilly, you have a, a bookie on this show who's going to jail? You, you know your brother is a doctor?" This is- I can just hear her, her pride in all this. You can hear... Yeah, yeah, yeah. You're right.
1:34
Exactly, yes, yes. [laughs] Yes. Siblings are doctors, yes. "Yes, why can't you be more like him?" And when I- I love this. I cannot wait to talk to him. I can't wait either.
1:43
We were talking about it before the show too of like w- we have done, I've done several interviews in my career that involve legal issues. Usually, though, it is well before court cases or well after court cases.
1:54
Kind of right in the middle is, is an interesting time. The day before sentencing. The day before sentencing.
2:00
I don't know about you, but if I am, uh, gonna be sentenced for something tomorrow- I would not be talking to you... I'm probably not on a radio show the day before.
2:06
Yeah, I would, I would not be talking to Gil Alexander. But here's, here's the thing you will learn about Matthew: very comfortable in his own skin, very honest. He has
2:14
s- he has been completely cooperative with the feds. Mm-hmm. Uh, and we'll get his take on everything. Was it Shohei? Was it not?
2:22
And how it all went down, how he got to, how, how he ended up with Shohei's interpreter, how the, uh, feds busted in and got him and all this stuff. We'll get into all that with him. I'm pumped. I am pumped.
2:34
And of course, the Crack man alongside. Uh, also today, Tim Murray. Week one college football begins tonight. Let's go.
2:40
Tim Murray, co-host of VSIN Prime Time, will give us all his thoughts on the week that is forthcoming in college football, the weekend. By the way, Lee Corso's last show on Saturday. Yeah. Yeah. End of an era.
2:52
End of an era. We're, we're buddies with Felica, so we know how much Lee meant to him as well, and Kirk Herbstreit. And basically they, you know, he was like their f- almost like their onscreen father- Mm-hmm...
3:02
for the, for the last stretch of years, and they, they're super protective of him, so it's, um, it's emotional for a lot of guys.
3:08
Uh, Lee Corso, who has meant so much to all the viewers in all these years watching College GameDay. Uh, that's, yeah, I m- from- You know?
3:15
F- Felica, I mean, look, I'm sure he can talk about it more, put it, put it better in his own words. Yeah.
3:20
But you do a show like that and th- that crew, the crew on air, off air, that spends so much time together in different locations around the country, can't even imagine how tight they've gotten over the years and how emotional that'll be for a lot of them.
3:31
By the way, I s- I strayed. We don't have Lee Corso on the show today, but we- [laughs]... we're gonna talk college football. Yes, we do not.
3:36
[laughs] And we'll wait, we'll wait for Felica to talk about Lee Corso a little later in the week. Uh, we'll do Are We Sure?, Estamos Seguros?, later on in the show today.
3:44
Uh, and, uh, how about some NFL power rankings a week before the season starts? NFC top 10 and AFC top 10. That could be comical looking back on- Yes, it could be. Yes... week 10, week 15. I thought about that- Yeah...
3:56
when I was punching 'em in, and I was like, "We gotta make sure to save these somewhere." [laughs] 'Cause I, I'll be honest with you, when I got to nine and 10 in, not the NFC, but the AFC was harder. Oh, yeah.
4:06
Nine and 10. So I, I- Which I was surprised by... I think it's also a good, um, you know, you're doing, you're doing summer's worth of kind of research digging into teams and prepping bets and everything, right?
4:17
And I think one of the things that I always had in the back of my mind, but you, when you lay it out as basic as this, you're kinda like, "Man, I'm pretty sure I know who's making the playoffs in the AFC, and I don't expect to be surprised by too many teams."
4:30
[laughs] Then you do the power rankings and you're like, "All right, now I'm more sure about it," and that, that doesn't sit right 'cause it's the NFL and we always know that something crazy's gonna happen.
4:38
Well, absolutely. Gilly, when as a doctor and you ask me to, to see if a ball goes through two yellow poles. [laughs] That's the difference. Uh, also, Will Hill. No, Will's sick. Will's not gonna be here today.
4:51
Will will not be here today. We, uh, we, we're looking forward to Will, but Will is under the weather. Yeah. He took the kids to Disney World or Disneyland? Disney World. I believe Disney World. Yes.
4:59
Yeah, W- Little family trip to Disney World, and of course, Dad got sick... kids are a Petri dish of bacteria- [laughs]... and Disney World is, like, ground zero. [laughs] I can't even imagine.
5:08
There's no telling what he, what he contracted. Um, but we'll, uh, we'll look at NFC, uh, West, the NFC West today as well as we go division by division, division.
5:16
I know we've done this several times during the summer, but this last run-up, we'll go to the NFC West today. And then a little make miss playoffs in Major League Baseball as well. Mm-hmm.
5:25
Which again, might fall under the category of I don't know if there's a bet here, but let's look at it. Yeah. And we're coming to that under the stretch. I wanted to- Yeah...
5:30
I wanted to pick your brain, see if there's, if you had to make a dog bet or two, right? Yeah. Where would you go? Yeah. And we did that yesterday with, um, what did we do it with yesterday?
5:39
With the, uh, w- we did sort of I only landed on two when we were talking about, uh, teams to get to 80 or 90 wins. Yeah, 80, 90. Yeah.
5:49
There was none, none of the teams was worth a bet to get to 80, and I said if you had to bet two to get to 90, it was the Padres at a, at a minus, big minus price, and the Red Sox maybe.
5:59
But again, it's slim pickings, so we'll see if there's something in there. Tennis yesterday. The, uh, the fine US Open continues. Three and one yesterday. Three in one.
6:09
Hit everything but Francisco Ceru- uh, Cerundolo, who was gutty and had a set point in set number four to push it to a fifth, but could not get it done. He loses the big dog.
6:21
But we hit all the other three, uh, yesterday, including Adrian Mannarino on the men's side. Uh, also Benjamin Bonzi came back from a two-set deficit, uh, to, to, uh, win his match.
6:33
And then on the ladies' side, did you see this? Drama. Oh, yeah. Taylor, Taylor Townsend easy-peasy against the hamburger, Jelena Ostapenko. And, uh, Ostapenko, in her fashion, did not take it well.
6:45
Oh, is she known for this? Oh, she is the worst. I did not, I did not know this. She's the worst. So she just goes after Townsend to win the match. She gets rolled in the second set. Yep.
6:55
And she, uh, she couldn't hold a serve for the entire match, and so she starts going after Townsend, and they're basically in each other's faces at the end.
7:03
And according to Townsend, interviewed afterwards, uh, Ostapenko called her classless and uneducated. Hmm. Felt a little- Yeah, there were some follow-... crossed the line there...
7:16
follow-up questions in the press conference about that. Yep You know what I mean. Yeah. Now Ostapenko, of course, felt the need to go to social media and clarify her comments.
7:22
Clearly she didn't like that that was out there, and she's like, "No, she just didn't say sorry on one of these net cord calls." So what would... Can you explain that to me?
7:30
And, well, there's a- What her point was or what she was trying to make point? She has n- she has no point. Okay. You know, it's tennis etiquette, right?
7:36
Like, if you, if you win a net point, in other words, what we mean by that is- Yeah... it clips off the top of the net and, you know, the ball dead-ends. And so the- Oh... if it had just gone a- Right...
7:46
millimeter or two above that, the, your opponent would've had a play on it, but because it clips the net, it just drop, drops dead, it drops dead, if you will. And so, you know, at the feet of the net.
7:56
And so you, you do a faux apology. I was just gonna say, isn't that the common courtesy of like- You do a faux apology... "Hey, s- like, that's a BS point-" Sorry about that... "but whatever, it counts."
8:03
I, I know I got the best of that. I know that wasn't based on skill. Sorry about that. Right? It's tennis etiquette.
8:08
So apparently Ostapenko, and I don't know if this is the case or not, but Ostapenko accused Townsend of not doing that.
8:13
And she said, "You're n- even though you're in your homeland," she says, "You sh- you're not allowed to act that way." Anyway, I believe T- Tay Tay.
8:20
[laughs] I believe Taylor Townsend, who said, "Yeah, that's what she called me." Yeah. Ostapenko was like, "I'll see you in another country," kind of thing. [laughs] "I'll see you outside." Oh, man, it was fascinating.
8:32
It was, it was fun to watch. Oh, it was so great. There is nothing, I'm telling you, there is nothing quite as fine as the petulance of the US Open- [laughs]... between Medvedev and Ostapenko. It's so great.
8:41
Uh, today five more plays. Five. Count 'em, Kelly, count 'em, five. Five. One, two, three, four, five. Plays in th- in the US Open. Two on the men's side.
8:49
Going back to Tristan Schoolkate as a monster dog against Alexander Bublik. Now, it's plus 370. Schoolkate's numbers are great on, on hard courts. Here's the deal with Bublik.
9:01
Bublik went much of his career, most of his career saying he hates everything except hard courts. He hates clay. He thinks clay is stupid.
9:09
Then this year he turns around and he's phenomenal on any surface that's not hard court.
9:15
And here he is now, without really good hard court numbers, and he showed up and he won his first round match against Marin Cilic, uh, in straight sets.
9:22
So this play is, not only is Schoolkate's numbers better, but I'm counting on Bublik reverting to hothead Bublik here as well. Okay. Like- Schoolkate plus 370 versus Bublik.
9:33
The only other one on the men's side, I don't think I've ever made a play on this guy, Leandro Riedi. I don't- Swiss player versus Francisco Cerundolo. He's plus 178. Ladies' side, uh, not quite as sexy on the prices.
9:44
Diane Parry. You remember we used to bet on Diane Parry. Oh, you've bet on Diane, I know that. Yeah, we used to- Well, Diane Parry. Diane Parry. [laughs] Diane Parry in French, minus 120 versus Renata Sarasua.
9:57
Renata Sarasua beat Maddie Keys, right? Is that who she beat? Or did... Yeah, I think she beat Keys. Okay, Kelly's like, "I don't know." Uh, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Come on, man.
10:04
Uh, she had a big upset, but Diane Parry is the, uh, is the play, minus 120. Again, better hard court numbers. Magdalena Frech plus 175 versus the American Peyton Stearns. And- Maddie Keys, yes.
10:16
And Victoria, what, you wanna take a shot at her last name, Kelly? Or do, would you not like to take a shot at that? Uh, uh, you go ahead. [laughs] Golubic. [laughs] God, I, I, I was not gonna go with that. Why?
10:28
Why, why? They just took her off the screen. Uh, th- I don't know why they just removed her. Oh, did I spell it wrong? Maybe I spelled it wrong. Maybe they didn't want me to pronounce it.
10:34
They, they caught a Kelly spelling mistake.
10:36
Victoria Golubic, uh, is the, uh, is the final play against Beatriz Haddad Maia, a Brazilian player who used to be really solid, but has sort of fallen off a cliff this y- uh, this season, and is trying to get her game back.
10:49
I am betting against it showing up today. So on the men's side, Schoolkate and Riedi. On the ladies' side, Parry spelled Parry, Frech spelled Frech, and Golubic spelled...
11:01
Kelly, would you like to say what it's like, what it pronounce? Yeah, yeah, otherwise you can pronounce it. Uh, Golubic. There you go. Golubic. Golubic. So there you go.
11:07
Five plays, United States Open, and it has been a, uh, a banner tournament, as, as this hard court season has been. Cincinnati was great.
11:14
Um, US Open has been great so far, which was different from the hard courts early in the year.
11:18
We sort of mimicked the Iga Swiatek year, which is sort of inexplicable results early in the, uh, in the tennis season, but the earth has returned to its axis. Nice. Like it.
11:29
Of course, we're always one day away from- Ze-... that no longer being the case, so. Zizou got home again? Zizou, uh, w- is through by, uh, Draper with a drawing from the tournament. That's right. Zizou, let's go.
11:40
Kelly's gonna name his firstborn Zizou. Zizou Bidlin. It's got a certain ring to it. NFC West. Let's do that next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
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12:46
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12:57
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13:08
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13:16
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13:24
Kelly and I, uh, off-air, we talk about many things, and they were playing on, and then, you know, what ends, ends up happening is in a Circa casino, like at any casino- Mm-hmm...
13:33
they're playing pop music, and then we, I just get it stuck in my head when I come in here. So this morning it was, uh, Blink-182's All the Small Things. Great song, great band.
13:43
So I've been singing it all morning, and you said, "Hey, did you know," what about them?
13:48
Well, I told you background about Tom DeLonge, one of the, one of the lead singers and guitarists, and he wor- he started a UFO, like, research company that they- [laughs] I think he's been, like, in front of Congress with all these UFO things.
13:59
It's crazy. It w- But we pulled up, the last break I wanted to see- Yeah... 'cause you were singing All the Small Things. You asked me, "Is that their most famous song- Yes... or biggest song?" Yeah.
14:07
I was like, "Well, they had, they had a few big hits, but I think that's the biggest." So I found this awesome website, k- kwarb.net, I don't know. This is, this has daily Spotify streaming numbers on each song.
14:19
That's amazing. All the Small Things is number one, streamed over 500,000 times daily. Number one for Blink-182 songs. For Blink-182. 500,000 times daily. Daily. Wow. I Miss You, What's My Age Again?
14:34
Here's- Which you probably remember that one. What's My Age Again? I don't. Here's, here's the thing about that. I hope the artist is getting properly compensated in all this. Yeah. You believe in UFOs?
14:42
Is Congress like, "Weren't you the guy in Blink-182?" when he's talking to Tom? No. Okay, so n- well, this is, we could go a whole segment on this. Yeah. I don't, I'm a guy who's very down the middle on this topic, okay?
14:51
I believe some of these people. Remember we talked, it was a couple years ago we talked about on this show with the bo- the body cam's footage- Oh, yeah... here in Vegas- In Vegas... and stuff like that. They saw aliens.
15:00
What, what irritates me about this topic always, Gil, is I feel like in the '90s and, like, the X-Files era and stuff, right, like, he- everybody knew someone who was like, "Oh, they're out there.
15:10
They're just bu- the government's got this buried away." Yeah. And then literally in the past few years the government's been like, "Here's video of UFOs." Yeah. "We don't know what's going on." Yeah.
15:19
And everybody's like, "Oh, that's fake. That's fake." And I'm like, how do you go from like- It, it-... the, you want them to believe it's real to this is fake.
15:26
I'll tell you why, 'cause people, including myself, people believe what they wanna believe.
15:30
So I always took the, I think I've said this on air before, uh, I took the position in life, until someone I know and respect tells me they've had a UFO encounter or an alien encounter, I'm not believing it.
15:43
So fast-forward to when I was married, my ex-father-in-law- I do remember this story now. [laughs] Yeah. My ex-father-in-law, right, is a former, former skin, and r- and they used to practice out by Dulles Airport.
15:55
In, in those days, it was the vast wasteland. There was no buildup in Virginia. So he would drive this long, long Dulles Access Road to where they practiced, and it was full dark.
16:05
And he said one night when he was driving back from practice, this light he saw in his rear view mirror that was way, way in his rear, w- in the, in the, in, you know, way in the d- deep behind him- Yeah...
16:18
all of a sudden swooped in right on top of his car and then swooped forward just as fast.
16:24
And he told me this story, and remember I had this thing, until someone I know and respect tells me this, I'm never gonna believe it.
16:29
I looked at him and I go, "Yeah, it's not, that didn't happen," you know, [laughs] in my head. Right, right, right, yeah.
16:33
So it just showed you that even when I s- this lifelong, even when someone I knew and, and respected told me this, I still wasn't willing to believe it. I'd be like that guy in Independence Day, like, if that happened.
16:42
I'd just be like, "I gotta stop drinking," like this. "I don't know what I just saw." [laughs] "I don't know what just happened." Uh, let's look at this Major League Baseball market before we do NFC West.
16:50
Let's look at these Major League Baseball, um, make miss playoff numbers, and I had, w- we had Paul Sporer on on Monday. Mm-hmm.
16:57
And Paul Sporer from FanGraphs, and I said to him, I go, "Are the 12 teams that are currently in playoff position, six AL, six NL, are these the 12 teams that are going to be in the postseason in baseball?"
17:08
And he kinda said yes, with the possible exception of the Reds. He was, like, a little hedgin' on that. But basically it's like, yeah, probably so.
17:17
And I c- the reason I ask the question is 'cause I contend that that's the case. But if we look at these numbers, is there a number that could perhaps induce you to bet on one of these?
17:25
And let's take a, uh, a gander, Adam, if we will. This is to, uh, let's start with miss the playoffs. You wanna do that first? Yeah. Go, go, go. R- uh, American League, Red Sox, I mean, I'll read 'em off to you.
17:35
Red Sox, yes, minus 1400. No, plus 850. Yeah. Okay? Astros, yes, minus 1000. No, plus 750. Mariners, yes, minus 575. No, plus 450. Royals, yes, plus 350. No, minus 450.
17:52
Rangers, plus 650. No, minus 900. Guardians, yes, 12 to one. No, minus 2000. That's on the American League side of things. All right, here's the iss- here's the issue here with this. I wanna get this right.
18:05
So the closest team to playoff position, and let's start with the American League. Closest team on the outside looking in is Kansas City, a full three games out, right? Full three games behind the final wild card spot.
18:20
Uh, Kansas City, Kansas City has the eighth toughest schedule remaining. They have 28 games left and the eighth toughest schedule the remaining way, and you're only getting plus 350 on them three games back.
18:32
Schedule's hard. I'm not playing that, right? Um, the Rangers are plus 650. They're four and a half games back. They got the sixth toughest remaining schedule with 27 games left.
18:42
I'm not playing that with a tough schedule. Plus they don't have a Vivaldi anymore. I know the Rangers' offense exploded yesterday, but they're s- certainly not reliable. Guardians, you know how I feel about them.
18:53
They're five out. I've got a season win total under on them. I'm certainly not playing them. They got 30 games left, a very middling schedule in terms of strength of schedule remaining.
19:01
And the Rays, who are seven and a half back with 29 games left, have a middling schedule too. You're only getting 25 to one on them.
19:08
You have to make up seven and a half games in 29, you know, anywhere between, depending on the, the teams you're competing with, anywhere between 27 to 30 remaining games.
19:19
That's a monumental task when you have to get through other teams as well. So all of these odds would have to be doubled at a minimum for me to even be interested in playing any of them.
19:32
Um, National League teams, by the way, the Reds are the closest. They're four and a half out of the wild card pitcher, but they've got the third toughest remaining schedule in all of baseball.
19:42
And then, I mean, I don't even know why we're, why we're talking about the Giants, but even though- [laughs]...
19:46
even though they have the eas- you know, really, like, the third easiest remaining schedule, I love the Giants, but I wouldn't bet 25 to one on them making the playoffs. You kidding me? Yeah, yeah.
19:53
You'd have to s- you'd have to add a zero. Yeah. And then the Cardinals are seven and a half out. They're 30 to one. It's also interesting how certain teams they don't list. Like, are the Diamondbacks listed?
20:02
They're seven and a half out. They don't even list them, do they? They were yesterday. By the way, Cardinals have the second hardest remaining schedule, so they're absolutely not a play.
20:10
So the question is not, you know, you gravitate towards the plus money. Right. By the way, to miss the playoffs, the plus money, you know, you just reverse. Seattle's plus 450 to miss.
20:20
They're three up on the first team on the outside looking in, but Seattle has a super easy schedule left, 24th, right? So the, what is that? The seventh easiest remaining schedule. Houston,
20:32
three ahead of the first team on the outside looking in. Schedule strength, 21, so again, very easy. Bottom third. Boston, five games ahead of the first team looking, on the outside looking in, which is Kansas City.
20:48
They're plus 850, but get a middling schedule. So none of these plus numbers. By the way, National League, the Mets. Mets are four and a half games clear of the first wild card team,
21:00
Cincinnati, on the outside looking in. But the Mets did themselves favor. Remem- remember, the Mets can get in two ways, right? So they could also, you know, get in via- I think, yeah, I think that-...
21:12
via the division, and they're four back in the division. So the Mets would be interesting at eight t-... Well, that's, so that's too... But, but what you're talking about is them to miss. Z- so that's the other way.
21:26
I w- I got confused with the Mets and the Phillies. That's wrong. So the Mets are four and a half ahead of, of Cincinnati is what we're looking at here. Correct. So eight to one for them to drop out of that.
21:36
They have the seventh hardest schedule. Is that something you might be interested in playing? Not knowing... B- I wouldn't, because Cincinnati has the third hardest remaining schedule.
21:46
So again, you have to sort of assess not only the team you're looking at, but the other teams involved.
21:52
So I don't think there's a plus money bet here, and then it becomes which of the minus monies are, are s- you know, un- low enough that you would consider playing them. Maybe the Astr- uh, is that Astros number, Chris?
22:05
No, no. That's supposed to be plus. That's not correct, is it? Yeah. Minus 1,000. Yeah. So that, so- Missing a zero... I, I, this is the conclusion on this. Sometimes we look at markets where there are bets, right?
22:16
And then other times we look at markets like the one yesterday with getting to 80 plus wins and 90 plus wins, and I don't think there's a bet here. I think a lot of these baseball markets that are up here now,
22:27
you could take a flyer on these and somehow you'll win them and you'll feel like a hero doing it, but none of these are good bets at these numbers to me. Not a single one of them. You agree? Yeah. Yeah, probably.
22:39
A- a- and the, the reason, it, it looks like a lot of these books are just leaving off some of the ones that are in tighter division races, right? Yes. The NL East, AL East- 'Cause they have two ways of-...
22:48
that sort of stuff... right. Well, so- Should, should we say what we said off here? What's that? About, about, uh, scripted? Oh, you say it.
22:54
What, what was- Well, it's, it's always been the argument, like, you know, you always get the casual sports fan, "Oh, the s- the- Yeah, that's rigged... the sport's rigged. It's f- it's scripted," right? Right.
23:01
"The NFL's scripted." And my pushback's always, "Now, if it was gonna be scripted, you would be involved with the sports books and everybody could make money off of these things." Yeah.
23:11
This would be the example of, of Astros- 'Cause certain teams don't exist... because the Yankees aren't listed, right? That's right. The Yankees are not listed at DraftKings or FanDuel. Why aren't the Yankees listed?
23:19
That's interesting. Anyway, I'm just saying you have a betting dollar. You have to allocate your resources. You can't bet everything in sight. This would be something that I would look at and I would not bet. I agree.
23:30
Also, sports are not scripted. [laughs] Are you sure? Right. I don't think Major League Baseball is. [laughs] You guys just hear that? Kelly Dillon thinks sport- sports are scripted.
23:37
[laughs] That was my takeaway from that segment. NFC West, top to bottom, next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:19
That's promo code VSiN250, one S-T, B-E-T,.com. It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. Y'all are the best. Ted Henritzy, Retired Ted, he says. Kelly? Retired Ted.
24:32
He says, "Hi, Gil. I'm up at the US Open with my bride." Well, you know, you know a person's age when they call their, their wife their bride.
24:39
[laughs] He says, "Thank you for two winning days, Tuesday and Wednesday, especially the Townsend singles match.
24:43
I can't listen today, so if you can share your picks today, I'll thank you in person on my next Vegas trip." Well, I just gave them out.
24:48
Uh, again, on the ladies' side, uh, it is Parry, it is, uh, Frech, and it is Galgiewicz And then on the men's side it is Schoolkate and Rieti. These tennis names are gonna kill people.
25:00
Luca Flacco, "Just finished your three, uh, from yesterday and heard the Chunnel discussion. Did you guys know there's also a tunnel under the Detroit River between Detroit and Windsor?
25:09
Not sure we can call it a Chunnel here, but I like that more than Runnel, so Chunnel it is now." No way. Are you serious? Man, you gotta get up there, go through that. We gotta do a full podcast on this.
25:17
I did not, I was not aware that existed. Kelly- It's awesome... Kelly Bidlin live from under the water. Brian Schaefer, "Gil, what in the world was Ostapenko yesterday? What was she doing?
25:26
Enough is enough with this lady. Every time she starts to lose, she either retires or wants to fight with the opponent." Yeah, she's not a, she's not a super great human. That's my only assessment there. Chris of St.
25:35
Barts, "At Disney World last week. Came back sick too." [laughs] Oh no, you too, Chris? I can't even. I- Oh, no... I meant to bring this up, though. God, yeah, I know we're nowhere near Father's Day.
25:45
We only do this around Father's Day. God bless all you dads out there- Oh, man... who, who are going with multiple, multiple kids to, to Disney World. I, I cannot imagine.
25:56
I, I ba- I have babysat for all of three hours for my niece and nephew before, Gil. That's it? You retired? I, oh, I was exhausted. I think I took a nap immediately, needed a cocktail real bad. Yeah. It's exhausting.
26:08
I don't know how these people do it every day. [laughs] You and me, we're not the same. Stringfellow Hawk, "It's Gil putting addition on your house with these tennis bets Alexander."
26:16
Well, let's see if we can keep it rolling today. Jeffrey R. says, "Schoolkate's plus 430 at Profit X." And Threejack H3131, "Tennis etiquette, shmedicate. Do kickers apologize when they doink a game-winning field goal?
26:27
Somebody somewhere once said, 'You play to win the game.'" That's an awesome tweet. Yeah. That's an awesome tweet. Yeah. Although it'd be kinda badass if kickers started doing that.
26:36
Be like, "Hey guys, sorry, but that still went in." Who's my man that did it for the Skins against Tampa Bay in the playoffs? Zane Gonzalez? Yeah. If he would, like, apologize to the Bucs after that. "Sorry, guys.
26:46
Sorry to knock you out of the playoffs." [laughs] Um, and let's say, uh, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo. I got pic- What'd he say? I got pictures of the Detroit Chunnel. Looks great. Greg Ners- Nersessian.
26:58
"Hey, Gilly, did you, did you solid yesterday and I didn't tag your tennis pick. Consequently, you went three and one. Based off of today's results, you'll know if I tagged. Love and listen [laughs] to the show daily."
27:06
Oh, Greg is one of those guys like Todd, where it's like, "You don't want me playing your picks. I'm a mush," kind of thing. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Uh, okay, let's talk NFC West. Uh, let us begin at the top.
27:16
Again, San Francisco 10 and a half is where their total is, season win total. Rams are at nine and a half. Cardinals and Seahawks both at eight and a half.
27:24
Uh, and if we go to, uh, to make and miss playoffs in the NFC West. Playoffs? Playoffs? Uh, San Francisco's minus one, uh, excuse me, minus 210. Rams are minus 160. Arizona's plus 115. Seattle's plus 160.
27:38
And then to win the division, everybody's in plus money. San Francisco plus 155, Rams two to one, Arizona plus 425, Seattle five to one. San Francisco, 10 and a half wins.
27:49
Um, still one of the most talented teams in all of football. If you, uh, could stay healthy, that is. Disappointing six and 11 season last year.
27:58
Uh, even with all their issues, the offense still finished 10th in EPA, expected points added, but the defense struggled badly, ranking 26th in EPA.
28:05
But in just games with Brock Purdy as the starters, uh, the Niners were six and nine.
28:10
However, their offense was eighth best with him as the quarterback in EPA, and the team had a plus four point differential in the 15 games he started. Um, Niners would've been expected...
28:21
This is all, by the way, through the prism of Cleve TA's wonderful preview. Forgot to mention that at the top here. Uh, they would've been expected to win 2.8 more games. We do that whole pie fag in, uh- Yep...
28:32
baseball, by his numbers. Uh, that's a 16.8% underperformance last year, ranked last in the NFL, and the 28th worst figure in terms of underperforming out of 830 teams since 1999.
28:45
I know it took us all a while to come, come around on what the 49ers really were last season- Yes... but, like, yeah, I mean, still, they, they finished fourth in total offense and eighth in total defense last year.
28:54
It was, it was- Finished... it was tough to power rank them- Yeah... when we did our power rankings, which are coming up. San Francisco ranked bottom five in the league in DVOA.
29:01
Again, this is, again, what, what our eyes don't catch. Ranked bottom five in the league in DVOA in field goals, kickoffs, kick returns, and punts.
29:10
49ers kickers made 76.7% of their kicks, sixth lowest percentage in the NFL. Jake Moody made only 70% of his kicks. Niners opponents, 94% kick success rate, second highest in the league.
29:24
And in the fourth quarter and overtime when the margin was in, within one score, Niners kickers went just two of six from field goals while opponents went a perfect nine of nine. Field goal luck, ladies and gentlemen.
29:35
It's a thing. Niners ranked worse than league average in, uh, adjusted games lost within all eight position groups. Think about that. Yeah. Pick your position. They lost more...
29:45
They, they were worse than league average in all of them in terms of games lost in, due to injury.
29:49
Not having McCaffrey, Christian McCaffrey for the start of the season, and then after coming back for four games, remember, missing the rest of the season.
29:56
They also lost Brandon Aiyuk for 10 games, Ricky Pearsall with a, with the shot, with the gunshot for the first six games of the season, and Trent Williams for seven games.
30:03
And defensively, Dre Greenlaw missed 14 games, returned from Achilles tear. Uh, Javon Hargrave could only play three games all season. And then, uh, Talanoa Hufanga only played seven games.
30:13
And remember, most of those guys are gone now. Mm-hmm. Or at least a few of them are. Fred Warner played all 17 games, but he disclosed late in the season that he was playing on a broken ankle from week four on.
30:23
Nick Bosa missed three games as well. Um, 49ers expected to face the easiest schedule in the entire National Football League, per some.
30:32
Uh, they face the least number of opponents within the current top 10 of Super Bowl odds in the league, and the most bottom 10 teams, nine.
30:39
Deebo's gone, Leonard Floyd's gone, Ja'Varrius Ward gone, Dre Greenlaw gone, Javon Hargrave, Aaron Banks, Talanoa Hufanga, either in free agency or trade.
30:48
They're at 10 and a half, and it's a very, based on all of that we just talked about, a lot, and I mean a super bunch, went against them last year, and they got the easiest schedule going You go from one of the hardest schedules in the NFL last year to one of, if not the easiest this year.
31:03
You were looking at the schedule right now, Gil. This is the hardest... The toughest quarterbacks they will face all season are Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield I mean, come on, man. The...
31:13
It is, i- it- it's down as you wanna be on the Niners. Yeah. And there are... Look, there are, there are, there are injuries, there are m- significant players that they did lose, right?
31:21
But this is, this is what happens when you've gotta pay guys like B- uh, you gotta pay guys to continue to build a team. I'm a believer in Brock Purdy, though.
31:29
I'm a believer in the core of this team, uh, and the coaching staff. I wasn't as high on them, I think, a year ago as others. This schedule, though, makes it impossible- Yeah... for you to be too low on the 49ers. Yes.
31:41
Well said. I agree. Rams are at nine and a half. The over is juiced minus 145. They finished 10 and seven last year, won the division, if you remember.
31:50
Bullied the Vikings in the Wild Card win, then lost by six to Philly in the divisional round. Remember, they were the team that could've been f- could've beaten Philly. Mm-hmm. Had the ball in the snow, one-score game.
32:00
Uh, they finished with a minus [laughs] 19-point differential, but after suffering through, uh, numerous injuries starting the season one and four, they went nine and three to finish.
32:09
Sixth season out of eight in Sean McVay's career where the Rams went over their preseason win total. They've also won at least nine games and made the playoffs in six of eight seasons. Sean McVay can coach.
32:20
Behind Matt Stafford, the offense finished near league average in EPA. But in the 11 regular season games where Puka Nacua started, they went eight and three and ranked a top 10 EPA offense. Mm-hmm.
32:30
Six best through the air. I don't know if you've heard me say this before. Puka Nacua's great. Dude, and now he gets to be the guy with Davante Adams next to him too. Yep. Uh, it's an upgrade over Cooper Kupp.
32:41
I think Davante Adams can still play. I think he showed that last year. But, like, Puka gets to be the guy now. Last thing.
32:46
Rams were the sixth-most injured offense in the league last year, including seven regular season games that Nacua missed. Along with shuffling of the offensive line, Cooper Kupp was in and out of the lineup.
32:55
Remember, he's gone now. In addition, no team faced less snaps from backup quarterbacks than the Rams last season. They got the best of that. Or no, say it the... Excuse me. They got the worst of that. Pardon me.
33:04
Only 10 snaps against Aidan O'Connell in week seven. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. That was it from backup quarterbacks against them. So they faced the worst group of quarterbacks. Everybody was a starter.
33:14
And because of that, the Rams defense faced the single toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks. They did finish eight and five in one-score games, sixth-best in turnover EPA in the second half of close games.
33:23
Matthew Stafford, think about how you think of him. He ranked dead last among all qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus's grade under pressure, but was seventh-best with a clean pocket. Oh, man.
33:36
In other words, father time is here for Matthew Stafford. As long as he's clean, he's good. Yeah, yep. But you pressure him, he's the worst in the league.
33:43
He also had the widest negative gap between his turnover-worthy play rate and his actual turnover rate. In other words, his batting average on balls in play was very fortunate.
33:53
After facing one of the more difficult schedules last year, the Rams are expected to face a slightly easier than average strength of opponent.
33:58
Uh, only potential tough weather game is Seattle Thursday night in mid-December. All right. Real quick, we'll get to the other teams later in the show, right?
34:05
Uh, real quick, though, if you had to make one bet to win this division right now, who would it be on? [upbeat music] Niners. Niners? Yeah. I think I would take- I'd go, I- I think I'd take the Cardinals price right now.
34:16
The Cardinals price of plus- Like, 450 or something like that... 425 over the Niners plus 155. I think that's getting a little too cute. No, I... It might be. Yeah.
34:26
But I think there's, there's three teams I'm high on in this, in this division. If it was seven to one, I'm with you. But plus 425, I'll go Niners.
34:32
We'll get to the bottom of the division, as well as Tim Murray next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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35:08
Top of the hour, by the way, Bill Krackomberger unscripted, and also an appearance from Matthew Boyer, who, uh, is, uh, gonna be sentenced tomorrow for running an illegal bookmaking operation, among other charges.
35:21
Uh, he was the bookmaker who booked action from Shohei Ohtani's interpreter.
35:26
Um, we will talk to him momentarily, Shohei Ohtani's interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, and we'll get to the bottom of if he thinks, uh, Shohei was behind the bets or not, among other things. We look forward to that.
35:36
Right now, though, let's talk some college football. 17 college football games today, and of course, marquee match-ups all through the weekend headlined by Texas and Ohio State Saturday morning.
35:46
Tim Murray, co-host of VSIN's Primetime joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray. Joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Timmy? Happy New Year, Gil.
35:56
Uh, I know we had week zero last week. It was a blast being out in Hawaii, but it starts today, baby. Five straight days of college football. Can you walk us through, just briefly, the Hawaii experience?
36:07
How was that for you? I mean, look, it was, it was one of the more gratifying, uh, things that I've gotten to do in this, in this industry.
36:16
And, uh, just the people out there, Gil, were, were so accommodating, so helpful. Our, our great radio affiliate, Hawaii Sports Radio Network, was, was amazing every step of the way.
36:26
Coach Chang, I mean, look, he spearheaded this thing. It was his idea. We made it happen. We had some great sponsors come together. And then to be there, you know, it's a unique stadium, Gil.
36:36
Obviously, we think back to the days of Aloha Stadium and And they're hopeful in a couple of years they'll have a new Aloha Stadium. But it being on campus, very good atmosphere.
36:46
And for it to unfold the way that it did, to win via a game-winning field goal from a kicker who is from Japan, who learned how to kick via YouTube. Uh, there were a lot of unique storylines. But no, it was so much fun.
37:00
And, uh, you know what? Let's, uh, let's do it again, Gil. I, I, I'm ready to go back. You know, they're, they're on the road this week at Arizona. Uh, maybe next week when they, uh, they welcome Sam Houston.
37:09
Let's just go back. Yeah. Ben Golbranson, by the way, with a heavy assist, the Stanford quarterback, on that. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And that, that by the way, that point about- They call him, uh, they call him Dr. Ben, Gil.
37:18
I, I think- Good... uh, he'll be doing something other than sports very soon. [laughs] That's right. That's for sure.
37:23
Um, that, that point about, uh, YouTube, the, uh, the Hawaii kicker learning how to kick on YouTube, the color commentator, you didn't see this, uh, because you were there probably.
37:32
But if you were watching the broadcast, Logan Ryan, I believe is his name. Mm-hmm. Uh, he probably mentioned that 75 times roughly. It was ridiculous. I was like, "Okay, let me guess. He, he learned this on YouTube TV?"
37:43
Did I miss that part? Or YouTube, uh, channel. Is that it for YouTube or the website? [laughs] Uh, okay. You are a Notre Dame guy. Can we just start- Yeah...
37:50
w- before you get to your picks, Notre Dame two and a half point favorites against Miami. Uh, believe it is Sunday night if I'm not mistaken. Sunday night or Monday night? I can't remember now. Sunday. Sunday night.
37:59
Uh, what is your take on the Irish in that game and this season? Yeah. So, you know, it's funny.
38:05
I know our, our mutual friend, Chris "The Bear" Fallica, we've been texting back and forth because this is the, uh, the Murray-Fallica Bowl. Uh- Yes... because he, of course, being a U grad.
38:15
Now I am not a, a Notre Dame grad, just have Notre Dame in the blood. Um, look, this is a game where I think we learn a lot about both of these teams. I'm not trying to cop out. Uh, my, my initial play was under.
38:27
I, I played it, you know, a couple weeks ago on the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast. You know, 49 and a half, 50 now. It's a little bit too far, but I still think this is more of a kind of a feel it out process.
38:38
Maybe you look first half under if you wanna go that route. Uh, as for the game and the side here, as we've seen the number tick up to three, I, I wouldn't blame you if you took the three with Miami here.
38:50
Uh, this is a Miami team that, uh, is going to have very, very strong defensive line and offensive line presence. Now, I think if you're looking at the Notre Dame side here, Gil, the reason Notre Dame wins is twofold.
39:04
They don't turn the ball over with CJ Carr at the quarterback position, and their secondary stifles a very new wide receiver, uh, corps there for Miami.
39:12
I think Notre Dame's strength this year is going to be their secondary. Uh, it's led by, uh, Leonard Moore, who stepped in last year for an injured man, Benjamin Morrison, became a freshman All-American.
39:24
Uh, they have Christian Gray on the other side. Christian Gray, you might remember, had the big interception against Penn State- Mm-hmm... at the end of the Orange Bowl. They went out to the portal.
39:32
They added a nickel from Alabama in Devonte Smith. They have very good safety presence with Don Schuler back there. So I think Notre Dame's defense is their strength this year. They'll lean on their offensive line.
39:44
I do think they upgraded the wide receiver position. I, I think three's probably the right number.
39:49
And, uh, once again, if I were to play it, uh, I would probably take the three with Miami, but I'm heading into this game, and I'll be there, Gil. I'll be flying out Saturday night- Ooh. Look at you...
39:58
uh, to head down to South Beach for this game. Uh, I'll be sitting there with an under ticket in pocket.
40:04
Uh, as for real quickly the, the prospects of the Irish this year, I, I think they're like Alabama, I think they're like Oregon, I think they're like Ohio State.
40:14
If the quarterback hits, the ceiling is national championship. I think this team is as deep as they've been since the Holtz era.
40:22
And if CJ Carr, who has never taken a meaningful collegiate snap and has never thrown a pass in a college football game, Gil, if he hits and lives up to his high four-star capabilities, I really do believe Notre Dame's ceiling is the national championship.
40:38
But if he doesn't hit, they could very well start 0 and 2 with Miami and Texas A&M on the schedule. Wow, from Hawaii to, uh, South Beach for Tim Murray. Balling and shot calling, styling and profiling.
40:49
And a stop in Vegas in between. Yeah. Maxing and relaxing. All right. Anything today on today's slate? All right. So I, I'm not gonna give it out now because it, it's hilarious.
40:59
Uh, I, I bet this game, uh, this FCS extra game, and it has moved now eight points. Uh, so I just wanted to point it out 'cause I'm not gonna go in depth on it. Uh, UL Monroe and St. Francis of Pennsylvania.
41:12
Uh, the Red Flash, uh, is now transitioning to Division III, so we're, uh, we're banking on the Warhawks taking advantage of that. Um, you know, the one game...
41:22
I'll, I'll give you a couple that I, I haven't bet yet but, um, I'm keeping a close eye on. Uh, there's a lot of hope and expectation for this Buffalo squad from the MAC to keep things close tonight.
41:33
Seeing a little bit of movement towards the, the Bulls here as 18 down to 17 at Circa. 17 and a half still, uh, market wide. Uh, Wes Reynolds was on the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast yesterday.
41:44
He talked this one up. And, uh, you know, Buffalo in year two of Pete Lembo there, a guy with, uh, a lot of special teams in his blood from his time at South Carolina.
41:55
Uh, I think this is, could be an interesting spot where you see a MAC team maybe be competitive. And then for me, Gil, a big game for a win total is Nebraska and Cincinnati.
42:04
I have over seven and a half wins for Nebraska this year, and, uh, this game gives me a little bit of heartburn. Uh, this is- Hmm...
42:11
a spot where you have a coach in Scott Satterfield for Cincinnati, Gil, that is very much on the hot seat heading into this year. And you know this all too well.
42:20
When you see that six and a half dangling out there, it's just tempting you. Why don't you lay it with Nebraska? It's under a touchdown. Cincinnati does bring back their, you know, veteran quarterback in Brendan Sorsby.
42:31
What is Dylan Raiola going to be this year? Is he gonna take that next step? The reason I bet over seven and a half wins this off season on the Cornhuskers is twofold.
42:40
Number one, Matt Rhule historically has really taken that big step In year number three, when you look at what he did at Temple, and then what he did, uh, at Baylor. Now, I do not include his Carolina Panthers time.
42:52
Uh, this is college only. So- Yeah. [laughs]... uh, we will scrap that from our, our memory bank. Yeah. Uh, how that year u- u- unfolded down there in Charlotte, North Carolina.
43:01
But then secondly, I do think Dylan Raiola and Dana Holgorsen, this marriage. Dana Holgorsen took over as the OC late last year, and they started to play much better football.
43:12
And, you know, I had a chance to talk to Dylan Raiola when they were in town for Big Ten Media Day. And it just felt like something was clicking there.
43:20
So, you know, you try not to take too much from what you obtain, Gil, from Media Days, because everything is sunshine and lollipops before the season starts.
43:28
But I do have some hope that this Nebraska team, uh, I won't say contends for a Big Ten title, but I do think they have a couple opportunities, uh, this year and early on against Michigan to make a, make a statement.
43:41
But it starts tonight. They better not mess around, uh, at Arrowhead Stadium here in a neutral site game against the Bearcats. Yeah. You, you made the... Uh, Dr. Bob made the point about Rule in his third season.
43:51
You're right, didn't apply to his tenure with the Panthers, but, uh, certainly in college with Baylor and Temple. And then Satterfield is just such a, a window into how fleeting your reputation is.
44:00
Remember, it was just a minute ago when he was like- Oh, yeah... the hottest commodity out there. Right now, he's on the hot seat.
44:05
Just how it goes in college football and, and most sports, but college football, uh, up there at the top of that. Real quick before you go, Tim, we have a minute. I have to ask you, Texas-Ohio State.
44:14
Uh, people think this is still gonna move, but still right now, Ohio State a couple point favorite here. Yeah, it was interesting, Gil. I had Matt Grohl from DraftKings Sportsbook on VSAN Prime Time earlier this week.
44:26
And we'll see how the market shapes, uh, ships, uh, shapes up here. Excuse me. But he said as of Tuesday, the biggest need they had was Ohio State. They needed Ohio State, the defending national champion.
44:38
People are, are laying it on the money line here with Texas. I understand the questions with Ohio State. You've got a new quarterback, two new coordinators. That concerns me as well.
44:47
But Gil, if I wake up Saturday morning and I'm getting a plus sign on Ohio State, I, I'm gonna have to take it and, and see how this ultimately plays out.
44:55
I get all the hype for Texas and Arch Manning, but Ohio State still has Jeremiah Smith, still has Caleb Downs. So let's see how this puppy moves.
45:03
And if I get plus money on Ohio State, I'm gonna have to be on the old Buckeyes on Saturday morning. Noon Eastern, but for those of us in the Pacific Time Zone, 9:00 AM. How great is, how great is this country?
45:15
Tim, thank you. Yeah. Appreciate it very much, man. Yeah, we'll see you, man. Host of the College Football Tailgate Show as well, Tim Murray. Not to mention co-host of VSAN's Prime Time. OneTimMurray on Twitter.
45:24
Crack is next, and Shohei's interpreter's bookmaker
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