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Aug 28, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 28, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 28, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on Visa.
0:09
Hour number three of the Numbers Game at Visa and eSports betting at Visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander and back in his chair, Clay Buyda. What'd I miss?
0:22
Nothing. I went down Fremont Street. Oh, nothing. 40, I grabbed a donut down there at Don- Dunkin' Donuts down at Fremont. You, you, you like that Dunkin' Donuts. Yeah, I love that Dunkin' Donuts.
0:31
Yeah, well, you, you, there's always fascinating people out on Fremont Street at this time of day. I like to, like to, you know, I'm a man of the people, like to associate with them. Anything happen? Yeah.
0:39
Crack, uh, Crack was kind enough to, uh, bring in his buddy Matthew Boyer, who, uh, Shohei's interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, his, uh, his bookmaker.
0:50
And for that crime and two others, he's getting sentenced tomorrow, and he came on the show a day before. How about that? Dude. If you- That was incredible. Great job by you and Crack.
0:59
Was awesome of Bill to get him on the show. Yes. Um- All, all praise to Bill. What an amazing attitude to have about everything right now. Yeah. And he's, man, he's thinking ahead, that's for sure.
1:10
[laughs] What's- He is definitely thinking ahead... [laughs] what's to come. Um- Yeah... wow. I mean, we have read some of those things before, but to hear him talk about it- Yeah... holy crap.
1:22
A- and, and I mean, for us here in Las Vegas, I mean, the, the know, know your customer stuff, right? Yep. That is, that was very fascinating to listen to. The Resorts World part is really interesting. Yeah.
1:34
I mean, you know, you know me, I, I used to spend more time there than I do now. I was there over last weekend, though. Um, I love their little high limit bar, like hanging out there.
1:43
Like, you know, it's my, it's my new Vegas hack is the high limit bars, 'cause you can get whatever cocktail you want and then usually you got TVs.
1:49
This is, I know Bill's talked about it, everybody knows Matt in this town. Yeah. Like e- if at the casinos, because he was in there gambling a ton, as Bill talked about.
2:00
And it just, when that story first came out, I remember a- asking some of those guys about it, and it's like, "Well, we can't say anything, but yes, we know exactly who you're talking about." Yeah.
2:10
And the, like we said, there's gonna always be people who hear it right from the horse's mouth, who say, "Nope, I, it wasn't Shohei, it was the interpreter." And they're still gonna be like, "Come on." Yeah. Yeah.
2:19
'Cause people wanna, people wanna believe what they wanna believe on stuff like that. But it, but the Resorts World part is particularly interesting because, and now I'm, I'm talking, I'm paraphrasing.
2:27
I, I don't wanna put words in his mouth. But it, it's, it is really interesting because they're all buddy buddy with you, right? Like, you know, "Host, come on. Yeah, gamble, come on.
2:36
Yeah, what else do you need, blah, blah." And as soon as things go sideways, "Oh, we didn't know he was doing that." Mm-hmm. "What?" Okay. Yep. Well, feds don't like that either. Yeah. They don't. So I don't know.
2:47
Man, what an hour. What an hour. Reminder, Bill moving back to the next hour. That's right. I know you did this at the end. That's right. But, yeah, m- moving back to this hour starting next week. Yes.
2:57
For this hour, though, it's Clay Buyda. Yes. Uh, you wanna do some, uh, NFL power rankings? I, I guess. I don't know if my brain will be able to move on, but that was, it was just a great hour, great interview.
3:07
This is, this'll be particularly comical. We don't have an open for this, do we? Yeah, we do. Oh, we do. It's time for NFL power rankings. Plug it in. Power it up. [upbeat music] A little bumper, that's all it is.
3:19
Live 105 San Francisco. There you go. All right. Um, this'll be funny because, you know, again, halfway through the season, three-quarters of the way through the season, end of season, let's find out.
3:28
By the way, we got a tweet from somebody- Yes, James Fessler... who, who, and I don't even know if this is true, I'm just trusting him, that these were our power rankings last year at this time for the 2024 season.
3:39
Would you like to hear how that went? [laughs] Well, I, I can't find it now. This is comical. I'll- I believe these are correct... so we didn't do it, we... Oh, I guess we did do it by conference then.
3:49
He only has the NFC, right? Or he has the AFC too. No, he did, yeah, he tweeted the AFC. Oh, okay, he did twice. So in- Oh, God, did I really put the Jets that high? Oh my God, dude. Oh, geez.
3:57
In the NFC last year, preseason, I had the Saints 10th,
4:03
Arizona ninth, Atlanta eighth, Seattle seventh, Rams sixth, Cowboys fifth, Green Bay fourth, Detroit third, Philly second, San Francisco one, Washington not even in sight. Ah, come on.
4:15
Yeah, we, nobody was gonna have that. Um- Our, our NFC looks a whole lot better than our AFC. Oh, our AFC. I'll tell you that much. It was- Um, 'cause the Jets are in the top five of, uh, both of ours This was last year.
4:25
My top 10 AFC last year at this time was 10 Colts, nine Bills. Bills were ninth. Jet- Cleveland, Cleveland and Miami. [laughs] Jags eight, Cleveland seven. Remember that was, ooh, you know, we thought things.
4:38
Six Miami, Houston five, Jets were four, and then Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City. Um- That's awesome... okay, that's pretty comical. Kelly's doesn't look much better, but I'll spare you the shame. Oh, it's- Yeah...
4:50
it, it, one KC, two, two, two Jets, three Ravens, four Texans, five Bengals, six Bills. By the- We still have the Bills nowhere... by the way, we're trusting James Fessler- Yeah... that those are true. I, I believe him.
5:00
I believe him, September 5th, September 5th, 2024. Um, but I think there's a, there's a lesson in this, which is we're gonna give our top 10 teams right now, and ultimately
5:11
none of us should be that loyal to our preconceived notions of these teams, and oftentimes [laughs] it just, it's comically wrong. Well, and I mean- And, and comically, and things go bad also, right?
5:24
That's, I was just gonna say. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not, yes, we, the NFL is tough. A- anybody- Yeah... anybody at any level will tell you the NFL is tough to beat betting, right?
5:32
But the, the, how many, how many times over these, just the past few days from a Cleve TA note have you read they played this many backup quarterbacks? Yes. Yeah. I mean, this is what happens in the NFL.
5:43
Dude, Cleve TA, again, shout out to the, shout out to his preview. Uh, okay, here are my top 10 NFC teams. You ready? Starting with 10. Let's go. 10, Cowboys. That's right, Dave Ross, 10th in a 16-team conference.
5:57
Nine, Cardinals, eight, Bucs, seven, Falcons, six, Rams- Five Packers, four Niners, three Commanders, two Lions, one Eagles. Now, I know a lot of people- I like-... are like, "Three Commanders."
6:14
Well, keep in mind, I didn't have them in the top 10 last year. And I do think that the, the perception that the pendulum swing will be dramatic is somewhat founded.
6:23
I don't have them winning the division, but for me they are the proverbial, "Yeah, but you don't wanna play them in the playoffs, now do you?" That's that kind of team that they are. So anyway, that's mine. Yours, NFC?
6:33
Same 10 teams. Ooh. Which I guess, I don't know, I guess that's not that weird. It's not that weird- Yeah... because are you really gonna put Seattle- Saints, Giants... and Chicago? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
6:42
Okay, same, uh, 10 teams. We're gonna start NFC. Eagles, I'll go Cowboys 10, so we s- even share the same, uh- Ooh... 10th team. Sorry, Dave Ross. Falcons nine, Bucs eight for me, Cardinals seven.
6:54
I guess I struggled a little bit here, three through six, Gil- Mm-hmm... of r- how to rank these teams. Well, these are very similar. 49ers, I put six, but I...
7:03
would be no shock at all to me if they ran, if they were one of the best regular season NFC teams. Packers five. That's kinda where I made a s- I, I...
7:11
That was my statement of r- of ranking these teams, because I think the Packers are very live, as live as the 49ers are in the NFC this year, and the Commanders are right there as well.
7:21
Maybe I expected them to take a slight step back. And, uh, right on top of that group I've got the LA Rams. I still think at the end of the day, the Rams- You love the Rams... are gonna be good, a solid team in the NFC.
7:31
But I had to go wide receiver. What about, what about that Stafford stuff I was talking about, though, from Cleve? Oh, that's fine. I still think he's, I, I still think he's a very, very good quarterback.
7:39
And with a healthy Puka Nacua and Davante Adams on the outside- I thought he-... I think he's got some great weapons to work with... the worst quarterback in the NFL under pressure last year.
7:49
So just keep him clean, 'cause how good was he when he wasn't under pressure? That's the only thing. [laughs] So just keep him clean. That's a solution.
7:54
Uh, I guess the, forced to figure out where to put the Lions in this conversation was interesting, but number two for both of us, right? I th- I thought Eagles one, Lions two has to be your- I, I think it, I, I-...
8:04
has to be your one-two... I think you're right. Until, until either one of those teams shows us otherwise, I'm gonna leave them one and two like that. Yep. All right, to the AFC.
8:12
Again, for the purpose of saying how, how ridiculously wrong we might be heading into this season.
8:18
And, and again, just how you can't really stick to the notion of this, and these will change, obviously, as the years go on. Now, this was, this was the most difficult for me, was finding a 10 and nine in the AFC.
8:29
I actually thought, because the bottom of the NFC is so bottom, that this was a little more difficult. 10, Jaguars. [laughs] I don't know. It's the, the only other team I could think of at that point.
8:40
Nine, Dolphins, 'cause I do think Tua, if healthy, I know that's a large two-letter word, if. If healthy, he's really actually good. But when he's not on the field... And this was such a great point. Who made this point?
8:55
Mike McD- uh, Adam Burke made this point the other day when he was on the show. It is amazing that when Tua is not on the field, right, contrast it with Matt LaFleur, he was saying.
9:05
This was such a great point, one of the great points of the week on this show. He said, "When Matt LaFleur lost Jordan Love, Malik Willis got coached up to a 3-0 record, 'cause guess what? He adjusted."
9:16
But if Tua's out of the Dolphins lineup, oh my God, it goes to hell. Dolphins nine. Char- You, you, you know what I wanna, you know what I thought when he said that? I love Adam Burke.
9:26
He, he knows how much I respect him. It, it's a great point. It's a small sample size, though. Well, it's- It's three games of Malik Willis. Kelly, the National Football League is all a small sample size. That's true.
9:35
People should know that, right? That's the difference between baseball and all this. Yeah. Baseball, you can overcome negative variance. Football, you can't really.
9:43
I mean, this is kinda like the- I mean, we're doing Are We Sure Next?, but the [laughs] I, I should've included all these. But, like, I don't know if Malik Willis is any good. I don't know if Bryce Young's any good.
9:49
I don't know if Michael Penix Jr. is any good. All right, Jaguars 10, Dolphins nine, Chargers eight, Broncos seven, Texans six, Steelers five. Wow. And I, I think they're way better than most people do. I do.
10:03
Bengals four. Defense still stinks. Chiefs three, Bills two, Ravens one. I'm still in the tank for the Ravens. Quoth the Raven. How about another year, though, another year where...
10:14
I'm just, we'll just use yours as an example. Three AFC North teams in the top five of the AFC, and we would power rate the AFC much stronger than the NFC. Oh, yeah. At the top. To g- it's just incredible. Oh, yeah.
10:25
That's how good that d- that division has been and, and deserves to be talked about. Bro, we got the same 10 teams again. Same 10 teams again. [laughs] Uh, don't... I like that we went with the Florida teams, nine, 10.
10:34
We, we are sharing a brain, Kelly Bidlow. Nine and 10 we went with the Florida teams. You're an idiot, though. How could the Dolphins possibly be better than the Jaguars? [laughs] Come on, Gil, geez.
10:42
I mean- What an absurd take. Ridiculous. I have the [laughs] Dolphins 10, Jaguars nine. Steelers eight. I'm surprised you had them as, as high as you did. When I was talking about the begin- beginning of the show, I...
10:55
It's hard for me, and I know I'll be wrong. It is hard for me right now to sit, sit here and say, "How are these not the seven teams that are making the A- uh, the AFC playoffs?" Oh, that's a good call.
11:04
I see what you're saying. Chargers seven, Texans six, Bengals five, Broncos four, Chiefs three, Ravens two, because the best quarterback in the league is at number one, Josh Allen.
11:15
Well, if I could have pushed you, I would've laid minus a bajillion that you had the Bills number one. That's no surprise. Yeah, I mean, they have to make a statement. I, I do think this is...
11:22
So our biggest difference, and it's not really a big difference, is the Steelers. But I, I'm, I'm telling you, man, I think this is the Steelers' last stand.
11:28
I think this is the last year of the Steelers culture, 'cause they're old, man. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Getting up there. Uh, we'll come back. We'll do a whole- Power rankings is back...
11:38
whole bunch of things, including get to the bottom half of the, uh, NFC West. That and more. It's The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:45
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12:01
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12:06
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12:13
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12:24
Kelly Bidley, you know who texted me? Al Bernstein, 'cause Can- I'm so pumped... Canelo is, uh, fighting Crawford. Yep. So- I don't, I don't really care about that part. Yeah, so he's gonna come on the show.
12:35
I mean, I do, but- We love Al, one of the original VSiN hosts. Such a mensch, great guy.
12:39
[laughs] But the other part of the text that Kelly loves so much, and it really is the best part of the text, is he's like, "I'm also performing," once again, doing his lounge act. He sings and he does boxing trivia.
12:54
I am so there. We are going this time. We are, we are absolutely going. Yes. I told him, I said, "Kelly's coming with me." Du- du- are, are tickets sold separately? I'm, I'm kind of assuming we'll be okay, I guess.
13:05
I think we're okay. But, like, I kinda, I mean, uh, this, this might be to, need to be a A&G show out. He gave me- Crew's gonna have to come to us... he gave me a guy. Yeah. Gave you a guy? Yeah.
13:13
Okay, we'll figure that out later. Can't wait. At, where we, at Tuscany? Tuscany, baby. Let's go. [laughs] I'm pumped for that. I'm just gonna scream, "Tommy Hearns," that'll be it. [laughs] Go ahead, sing it out.
13:25
I just wanna see Al, Al sing. Oh, man. That's what I'm- Cannot wait. Uh, James Salinas, w- West- uh, Westgate contest, super contest winner back in the day, uh, he texted me about that whole DraftKings rule, right? Yeah.
13:38
I saw James last week. Did you? But, but I didn't get to say hi. He was, uh, uh, him, our old friend Brady Cannon, and our old friend Mike Pritchard were all doing- They, they doing their podcast...
13:47
yeah, they were doing their podcast- Yeah... upstairs, uh, at the- All three of those guys, like the nicest humans alive. I, I know. I wanted to say hi- Yeah...
13:54
to 'em so bad, but they were in the middle of recording, so hi, James James t- James texted, he said, "Good thing these poor downtrodden sportsbooks get the game feeds 30-plus seconds before us, angling sports bettors.
14:04
Otherwise, they'd never book our live bets either." Yep. Talking about that DraftKings rule with the information.
14:10
By the way, uh, uh, silly me for not bringing this up, Teasers and Parlays had an interesting point about this.
14:14
He goes, "I could see this new rule screwing people over the NFL and NBA draft betting due to those events being information-based if DK actually enforces."
14:22
Could you ima- I mean, that would just, I don't think they're gonna do that 'cause that would just render that market completely off the, I mean, that would just make it w- not worth doing at all.
14:30
It, it's a fascinating conversation because I, I, I am not shocked to hear any sportsbook baking those kind of rules in these days to give them an out, right, if they need it, Gil.
14:40
The problem is, is they can't, they can't abuse that rule.
14:42
They can't abuse that rule because too many people, uh, too many people will start talking and everybody who e- or, or mo- a lot of players are gonna leave their platform. Well, uh, you're the NBA prop guy.
14:52
I wonder how much this will quell your NBA betting on props. I mean, I would if I, I mean, it's, it's not, it's not necessarily props, right?
14:59
I don't bet a lot of props, but injury news is massive, and I, and I- But inju- but injury news related to props... and I beat m- I beat market moves for most of the time- Oh, right...
15:08
in the NBA on sides, totals, whatever, player props. Um, this is, it, the first time I made a bet and then they, I figured out they canceled it because of this, I would never bet at that sportsbook again.
15:19
But, but here's where they're gonna, h- I mean, you know, for everything that they think they've got an advantage on, like imagine, okay, so we find out, pick a team in the NBA, whatever, we find out a starting point guard is out, right?
15:30
So I always just use LeBron. Just use LeBron. LeBron and the Lakers. All right, let's say LeBron's out. All right. So you, obviously, as an NBA guy, adjust for that and you're like, "Oh, he's out. Everybody's out."
15:40
C- you ran, you run quickly to adjust everybody, you like go over on all these other players, points or rebounds or assists or whatever you do. But let's say someone else
15:49
who well before the LeBron news just happened to have a handicap where they wanted to bet over on some of LeBron's teammates. Right. Can, is the book gonna go and say, "Sorry, buddy, you must have known.
16:00
Your bet's done"? Like, I mean, this is, this is rife with trouble. This is what I'm saying. They gotta, they gotta be careful with that. Yeah. Right?
16:06
'Cause you're g- it's gonna become too much, uh, th- there's not many news stories [laughs] that s- that support the bettor over the book, right? But that would, I think that could become one
16:17
if you were enforcing this- Yeah... just whenever you wanted to. 'Cause you, also think about the games where, think about the games where guys are truly questionable, Gil, right?
16:25
And I think that's kinda what you're talking about.
16:27
You might wanna look at overs on other guys because you don't know about a star player, how, if he's gonna be at 50% or 70%, but he's still expected to go, and then right at the last second, he's pulled.
16:38
JC, "I missed the memo. Youse putting in that overtime over there. What, youse union workers over there now?" [laughs] Going yous. I like a guy who uses yous.
16:48
Uh, Bobby, oh, I, I used to, when I used to go to the Skins games as a kid, uh, Mr. Alan Bloom, a family friend, but Alan Bloom used to said, "So this guy says to me, Gil," and then I says to him.
16:58
[laughs] Says, I love that term. [laughs] People say says. Bobby Gettys, "DraftKings doing everything they can so that they have no responsibilities except advertising. Line making? Find information ourselves?
17:10
Why would we do that? We're just a sportsbook." It's absolutely ridiculous. Scuba Scott, "Great time with Crack once again. Concur with Kelly's take on people on Fremont this time of day.
17:18
While I was visiting Vegas last week, the one that garnered the most attention from me were those dressed as showgirls hustling you for pics, flab included."
17:26
Oh, that one's, that one's fascinating because you, really takes, I think, I, I think it takes until you work down here to realize this, but, like, each block, th- they're, they're in different colors.
17:36
They're dressed up in different colors. Yeah. I was always like, "Is this kinda like a, like a territory thing? Is it almost like a gang thing?" Oh, I don't know.
17:43
You know, it's like the girls in red are on this side of the street, and then the girls in green are on this side of the street. There's also a hierarchy on the strip, right?
17:49
Like, you know, cocktail waitress or girl in c- club. By the time you get to the girls with the feathers on the strip, it's sort of a different- Yes.
17:58
Yeah Uh, Keno, Keno Walker, great numbers game today with, uh, Gil, Bill, and a Matt Boyer. He says, "Also, best wishes to Matt Boyer on a new life, new success, and greater prosperity."
18:07
He's showing the book Recalibrate. Uh, looks like he already has his copy. Um, Nick, Real Nick's, "Everyone's if Tua stays healthy narrative is understood, but why does nobody say if Burrow stays healthy?
18:18
He's only started 14 more games than Tua since 2020, and he was a week one starter as a rookie. Tua didn't start until October. Fins up." You're right, Real Nick's. Mm-hmm. You're absolutely right about that.
18:28
Uh, is it time? Wanna do it? Are we sure? Estamos seguros? [air horn blaring] [upbeat music] Well, that's Country Clubbing. [laughs] Little- All right... little, little error Well, we're sure- All right...
18:41
we're sure we're not Country Clubbing. All right. That's what, that's what we know. It's all going swell. [laughs] All right, what do we got? All right, Gil. Yep. Are we sure? Yes.
18:49
Texas should be the favorite to win the national championship. Well, after hearing Dr. Bob, yeah. Yeah. Uh, Dr.
18:57
Bob, for those who missed it, he has Texas rated three points better than the next best team, next best team being Ohio State.
19:02
Note, he is not playing Texas this week because he's got other trends that take him off the game, but as far as macro, he's got Texas as the best team by margin. So yes, I am sure after hearing that. Okay. I go with Bob.
19:14
Well then, are we sure Arch Manning will enter the ener- NFL draft? Uh, I am- After the season... I am not sure.
19:22
His grandfather, Archie Manning, said, said words to the opposite, and then Arch himself said, "I don't know what he's talking about." [laughs] Sort of throwing his grandpa under the bus. That was hilarious.
19:30
I don't know what that guy's, uh, yapping about. But no, I'm not sure. There's, there's absolutely a path where this doesn't happen and he stays back and plays college football.
19:39
After all, you can make more money sometimes with these guys with NIL deals. And then I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but there's girls in college, right?
19:47
You go pro, there's a lot of more pressures, and it's not as fun. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I'm not sure he's going pro. Those poor professional athletes. They're really struggling- [laughs] Not yet...
19:56
out there to get girls out there. [laughs] I think I meant the concentration of per capita- It was just funny the way you said it [laughs] Yes. Sorry. Um, Chris Fallica, who hopefully will be on with us tomorrow- Yeah...
20:06
I'm checking his schedule. Yeah. Bad producing job by me. Yeah. Um, he was on last week. You still producing? He wa- Okay... like occasionally sort of. Yeah. Yeah. Um,
20:14
he was on last week with me and Matt Brown, and he had a pretty strong take about that. I, I really thought that it was...
20:21
I thought when old Arch had told, uh, grandpa to be quiet that it was ma- it was like, yeah, okay, yeah, he's gonna come out.
20:27
If they win the national championship- Well, Fallica said- Fallica said, "No, don't take that off the table at all." Yeah. Oh. It is very, very likely he could return. 100% agree. Um, okay.
20:35
Are we sure LSU will lose its opener again for the seventh straight season? [laughs] Two of those to Florida State, by the way. I am Kelly Bidlin, famous Seminole grad. I'm not sure. I'm not sure about that.
20:47
But Brian Kelly has been miserable, miserable in opening games here. Um, I'm not a hun- no, I'm not sure about that, but I do believe it is likely. Do you get any... 'Cause we've talked about this with the Bengals.
21:00
Do you... I, I have not pulled the trigger. I kinda wanna bet LSU, though. Like, this, this stuff has been talked about enough now. Like, the Bengals obviously had a reaction.
21:09
This preseason we're gonna play Joe Burrow and these guys all more. I feel like LSU alumni boosters, oh boy, uh, Kelly's gotta be sick and tired of hearing about this opening week.
21:19
So that would be LSU or nothing for me, on me on that game. All right, Gil, are we sure the Dodgers are still the, the team to beat in the National League? I hate to say it, but yes.
21:30
Like, I just, again, with all the tumult or all the criticism, look, look where they are. They're still right in the mix of they lead the West, and once you get into the playoff situation, yeah.
21:41
I mean, and, and they've got players still coming back. So yeah, no, I think they're the team to beat. I like that question.
21:46
If you, if you notice, that's been, like, a temp, temp check question every two weeks for the past- Yeah... like, two months at this point. Now, by the way, I don't want it to be the case. I have a Tigers-Padres 66 to 1
21:56
matchup, so I don't want that to be the case, but I do believe the Dodgers are correctly priced as the short shot to win the NL Penn at a plus 210. Brewers wrap up the month yesterday? Oh, they have clinched a dead heat.
22:10
Clinched a dead heat. Okay. They have clinched a dead heat with four games left. 19 wins versus three other teams that have four games left with 15. All right. One more before the break? Yes.
22:20
Are we sure the Blue Jays will hold on to win the AL East? I am not sure. I am not sure. Let's go Yankees. [laughs] Kelly Bidlin with big Yankees. Big Yankees fan.
22:32
Yankees and Red Sox not, uh, knocking at the door, but within striking distance. Still a whole bunch of games left, man. We're going to the end of September with this.
22:41
Coming back, more Are We Sure?, bottom half of the NFC West. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:03
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You can register any time during the season to be eligible for weekly and quarterly prizes.
23:14
Plus, each week the highest score gets a $500 Edge Boost deposit, and if the weekly winner already has an Edge Boost account, that prize is boosted to $1,000. Make sure you're eligible.
23:23
Sign up at edgeboost.bet with promo code VSiN. Enter the contest today at vsin.com/joe. We get tweets at Beating The Book, "Y'all are the best."
23:32
Auburnist, The Auburnist, "I need more details and a heads-up on the Al Bernstein event. One of the best guys in the sweet science."
23:39
Uh, Al Bernstein, in addition to being a Hall of Fame boxing announcer, and will appear on a numbers game, uh, right before the Canelo-Crawford fight in a few weeks, he also does a regular lounge act- Yeah...
23:52
here in Vegas. Doesn't happen all the time, but he has a, I guess, a lounge act residency. Can we call that? Uh, it's, yeah. At the Tuscany. It's like a semi-residency or whatever. Yeah. Yeah.
24:01
I don't know how that works in this town, but he- And he's, he's-... comes, like, every six months, right? Every six months. Every six months, yeah, he checks back in. He sings. Yeah. Got a great voice apparently. Sings.
24:09
And ask boxing trivia during, in between songs See, this is what's tricky. Like, whoever tweeted that in, I wanna say, "Come on out, I'll buy you a drink."
24:15
But like, Gil, I don't know if I want it to get, like, I don't know- No... how big this room is. No. I, I don't- You're gatekeeping like a sushi place. Right, yeah. Arn Diggity.
24:23
I don't, I don't want the experience ruined because we, we not only sold out the place, but it's got triple the capacity. I love this guy's Twitter handle, Arm Thug. Arm Thug [laughs]. Arn Diggity. You got to back it up.
24:35
"Speaking of the Steelers," he says, "week six home versus the Browns. Browns coming back from Europe, Steelers off the bye. Great spot for Steelers. Look ahead, DraftKings pit minus six and a half."
24:44
We talked about this yesterday on the show, Arn Diggity, when we were talking about the, uh, NFC North. It is one of, if not, the most unbelievable rest advantages in the history of the National Football League. Yeah.
24:58
Because the Browns chose not to take the week off after their trip to Europe,
25:04
and for their choosing that, they get the shaft by having the Steelers not only have to go to Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are coming off a bye week. It's incredible. It's never happened before, I don't believe.
25:15
Fairway Fred who, uh, came back, he says, uh, "Gil, what was the name of the bookie from Oakland involved with the Islands that CBS did on a 60 MinutE segment? Used to drive El Dorado Cadillacs. Ron something?
25:27
He sponsored-" Oh... a buddy of mine on the PGA tour." I'm not sure I know who that is. Yeah, I don't know that one either. Uh, JasonH11, "Country Clubbing scares me when I know it's about to drop."
25:34
He's a great- "It scares the bejesus out of me when it drops in the wrong spot." [laughs] Scared the bejesus out of us, too. [laughs] We got a sorry in earlier. Sorry. Get together, Danny, come on.
25:46
Jesse Welch, "Incredible interview with Matthew Boyer. Can we get his Twint- his Twitter handle if he's got one?" He does. It's MatthewBoyer5, Matthew spelled with one T, Boyer spelled W-Y. "Cheap prop bets.
25:59
As someone that prefers exchanges, part of me likes the sportsbooks like DraftKings coming up with these types of rules. It'll continue to push people to exchanges.
26:06
Bigger demand for exchanges increases the chances of them staying. Am I wrong?" You're right, Cheap Prop Bets. And Chance Copperpot. Totally, yeah.
26:12
This, this whole thing with DraftKings is silly, and here I felt betting exploiting, here, here I felt bad exploiting player prop lines when COVID ran through an NBA team.
26:21
Loving the new three-hour slot, guys, and great hour with Crack and Matt Boyer. And Ch- Chance is one of the best, 'cause like that's- Yep... I, I mean, the, I, I think that speaks to the type of guy he is, right?
26:31
That he would actually feel bad about that. I'm just like- That's so true... just laughing, right? You're just laughing of just, don't never feel bad for these guys. Are you kidding me? We, uh- Fuck...
26:39
we did the Niners earlier and the Rams. Niners season win total at 10 and a half, Rams at nine and a half. Uh, let's get to the other two teams in the division. Arizona, eight and a half, over juiced at minus 140.
26:50
By the way, if you played nine and a half, the under is juiced at minus 150, so let's call it an even nine. Arizona finished the season last year eight and nine, missed the playoffs for the third straight year.
26:59
Um, faced the top five most difficult schedule, including eight games versus playoff teams, managed to exceed their preseason, uh, win total of seven wins. This is all from, uh, Cleve T.A.'s football previews.
27:09
Says, "Along with the Niners, Cardinals were the only other team in the NFL to face both a top 10 most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and defenses by EPA. Cardinals went six and four after week 10.
27:20
Led the NFC West before collapsing to finish the season with four losses in their final six games. Led the division in scoring, finished second in points allowed." This is actually from Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac.
27:33
Uh, "Cardinals quietly finished top 12 in both points scored and total yards in the NFL- Mm-hmm... last year. Defense was average, though," and they fixed that, right?
27:41
With, uh, going after Josh Sweat and Kalais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson, Will Johnson, Walter Nolan. Don't know if it's fixed, Gil, but it can't be worse. Can't be worse.
27:51
And then we, we talked about this earlier in the summer from, uh, Aaron Schatz's FTN Almanac. He said Kyler Murray plans to run the ball more.
27:57
He told reporters that his knee injury bothered him throughout the season last year.
28:01
He averaged a career high in QBR and passing success rate last season, but ran for nearly half as many yards as in his 2020 season, let's say. So Kyler is openly saying, "I'm running more."
28:12
And then Marvin Harrison Jr., and this was both in Cleve's preview and in, and in Aaron Schatz's preview, which is the chemistry can only get better between Murray and Harrison Jr. Right. Can't, can't get worse.
28:21
'Cause that was a kind of bust season. Mm-hmm. Harrison was only targeted on just 21.5% of his routes, which tied for 87th among qualifying players. Wow.
28:31
Uh, most talented roster Arizona's fielded since 2015, per Aaron Schatz. That's when Carson Palmer led them to a 13 and three finish. Back to, uh, Cleve on the Cardinals.
28:40
They went just three and five in one-score games last year, did the Cardinals. Last three seasons, you know what their record is in one-score games? Seven and 16. Second worst in the NFL.
28:49
Turnovers in those close games, a major det, uh, detriment. And of their nine last, losses last year, six though came against playoff teams. Four of those six losses to playoff teams came by seven points or fewer.
29:00
Much more managable, manageable set of opponents this season. Um, favored in five of their first six games.
29:07
Faced the single easiest schedule in the NFL during that stetch, stretch, which includes New Orleans, Carolina, and Tennessee. They also catch some breaks with the environment of the road games. They play four in domes.
29:19
Yeah, that's big.
29:20
They do have to travel to Seattle on a short week following a Monday night road game at Dallas, but at least they'll have just one, uh, at least they will have just come off their bye the week prior to the Dallas game, so the rest shouldn't be a major issue.
29:31
Third and fourth downs and long, no team gave up higher success rate in the NFL. We talked about how bad their defense was. They had a horrible pressure rate, second lowest in those spots. Um, bottom line,
29:43
y- you know, this is a team, again, with the defensive reinforcements, Marvin Harrison, Kyler Murray connection can only get better. Kyler's gonna run more.
29:52
The way that Cleve is betting it is betting Jonathan Gannon Coach of the Year. You are also very high on Arizona. I am bullish on them as well. I, yeah. I don't, no, no awards, no team futures bets for me though, Gil.
30:04
I just think this is a team I w- you will see me betting and using in the contest regularly, at least to start the season. I already have a week one bet in on them.
30:12
Bet that a month ago, laid four and a half against the Saints. One of your survivor entries will be on them at New Orleans. Yeah Yeah, I think I'm gonna... It's gonna be hard for me not to have one.
30:19
By the way, get my entries after the show. Nice. And finally, Seattle eight and a half. Kelly has already been on record much of this summer saying, "This is your fourth place team in this division." Yeah.
30:29
A- and, and before I catch a lot of heat, and maybe from Chance Copperpot because he's up in Seattle, it, it's not that I'm so far down on this team, but man, the three teams we just talked about at the top of the division, I just, I think all three of them got a chance to make noise in the playoffs- Yeah...
30:44
win this division. And Seattle, look, I'm not a big fan of the quarterback change. This offensive line, there was major questions.
30:51
I know they had a ton of injuries, but this offensive line, I have no idea how good Seattle could have been last year. You know? Like- Yeah... we were both high on them entering the year. They finished 10 and seven.
31:00
That was with Geno Smith and DK Metcalf there.
31:02
But we said at the beginning of the year, if the offensive line can play well, this offense could be great, and the offensive line, A, did not play well, and B, was injured the entire year.
31:09
Well, a lot of what you're talking about was throughout Cleave's, Cleave's preview. 10 and seven last year, Seattle. Season win till eight and a half this year. Remember, it was like three seasons in one.
31:18
They went three and O, then they lost five of six. Mm-hmm. Then they closed winning six of eight.
31:23
Extremely poor red zone offense, uh, pushed down a lot of their overall efficiency, because really Geno was good, and the defense shined under McDonald, which is what his calling card was- Yep... and when they hired him.
31:35
They finished 10th in EPA. C- uh, impressive considering they faced the second toughest set of opposing offense last season. They were just two and seven against playoff teams.
31:43
Two wins came in Bo Nix's debut and in the finale against the Rams backups. They finished six and two in one score games,
31:51
but the hope is they can improve on early downs, uh, which is typically more predictive of the quality of defense. The defense did great on third and fourth down, but not so great on first and second.
31:59
And for a second straight season, and you just alluded to it, Kelly, the Seattle offensive line was decimated by injury, suffered a bottom five worst injury luck, uh, season by adjusted games lost. Now, here's the thing.
32:09
Seattle's favored in four games this season, but 10 games with the spread within three points in either direction.
32:14
Six of their road games are in the Eastern Time Zone, five of them currently slated for 1:00 PM Eastern on Sunday. Wow. But for what it's worth, Seattle, 27 and 35 against the spread in 1:00 PM Eastern games since 2000.
32:28
Not too good. 14 and 26 against the spread in those games without Russell Wilson at quarterback. Hmm. Uh, here's the deal though, and this is the main point, quarterback.
32:37
Sam Darnold takes too many sacks and will force the ball into tight spots that get him in trouble. Geno had his warts, but he f- uh, and he forced way too many balls in the red zone last season.
32:46
But generally, Geno's very accurate, and was credited with a league leading 81.8% on target throw rate. Clint Kubiak is the OC now.
32:55
Metcalf, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, so Darnold's gonna have s- uh, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling instead. JSN is excellent. We don't know about the others. Yeah.
33:07
And the problem is, that offensive line that sucked last year, it's likely to suck again.
33:12
They really didn't improve it that much, and the problem is the downgrade from Geno to Darnold, considering that offensive line was barely touched and the weapons got worse, worse with zero true outside wide receiver capability, because remember, JSN's a slot guy.
33:26
That's the problem. Can you trust Sam Darnold when everything around him isn't set up like it was with the Vikings- Yep... where you got Justin Jefferson on the side and your offensive line is great.
33:35
And it's not, it's not as good a weapon as Seattle had a year ago. No matter how good your defense is expected to be once again. We'll come back. More Are We Sure?, and we'll recap all the bets next.
33:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our numbers game live at Circuit Gil. Kelly in the hizzy. Appreciate everybody hanging out for three hours with us.
34:01
Uh, don't forget, top of the hour, Prop Points with John Hanson, followed by Money Moves with Stormy and JBT, and that leads into, uh, Mitch and Paul, Follow the Money. That's right. That's our new lineup here.
34:10
That's right. Check it out. Uh, we got tweets of being in the book. Disc golfer. You ever played disc golf, by the way? Um, no. I haven't either. No. It was, uh... I was invited multiple times in college, though.
34:23
Of course you were. And you didn't play? Nah, never did. Uh, disc golfers- Definitely like every frat boy out there definitely did, but I was never in a frat, Gil. No, you- I had my, I had my own frat. Really?
34:33
I had my own house going. You, you were in Mi Phi Mi? That was your frat? That's right, yeah. Uh, disc golfer. Seahawks offensive line was mowing people over in Kubiak's new scheme so far in the preseason.
34:42
They'll be better than last year. Uh, oh, and he, by the way, he says, uh, MVS, right? I was reading from the, uh, from the Cleave preview.
34:48
Uh, S- Van- Valdes-Scantling, of course, now on the Niners, not on the, uh, Seahawks anymore. So, but again, that's the issue. From- Well, and- The biggest issue is from Geno to Darnold. Well, and how do you...
34:59
I, I'm interested to see how they, how they deploy JSN, right? Is it, is it all out of the slot? I mean, he's a slot master, right? That's where he's, he's a slot master.
35:06
Or are we gonna, or is he gonna be worked around more? I'm very interested to see how that works, 'cause I think he's great. Chance Copperpot also chimes in. He says, "Kelly, I love my Seahawks, but I'm not delusional.
35:15
I have a 35 to one Cardinals to win NFC ticket, and that's my only team future. ATM," he says.
35:23
Uh, James Fessler, who was kind enough to give us our top 10 rankings from a year ago, he says, uh, "Like this exercise a lot. Always interesting to see how our opinions change over time.
35:31
Can't wait for the first Megapod. Good luck this season." Thank you, uh, James. Appreciate it. First Megapod is also, I think we wanna try to do it Wednesday. The first week we usually do it the day before.
35:41
Uh, I am doing it from the Wynn this year, so I am super pumped about that. Nice. Uh, but of course, uh, Todd Wishnev and Will Hill, the staples, and then rotating guests each and every week.
35:51
But since we're doing it at the Wynn, I should just have people in town. It's re- it's real odd that, that like I, I, I might just bully my way on more often, you know? Just- Show up...
35:59
it's we- it's weird that that happens with a venue change, you know? Hey, hey, Gil, I'm here. [laughs] Um, oh, we wanted to shout out also Tim Murray, who was on earlier, College Football Tailgate. Betting podcast, yeah.
36:08
Yeah. Check that out. The Tailgate Show every Saturday morning he'll be doing now. Yeah. T- Tim, I thought Tim was great. And man, yeah, he's, uh, really getting the, the miles in, man. Hawaii, Miami. Wow. Well...
36:20
It's not a bad start to the season. No. By the way, I got the reason for you of why I've never played disc golf. This is really the truth. I, I could hit a golf ball better than I can throw a Frisbee.
36:30
I don't, I don't know about you, but I, I cannot throw. I'm that guy who cannot throw a Frisbee thr- straight to save their lives. I am the same exact guy. I cannot throw a Frisbee. I, yeah, I...
36:39
So I honestly, I would rather go out there with a seven iron and try on a real golf course- Can't throw a Frisbee... than throw a Frisbee- Yeah... at something. Never learned. Never figured it out.
36:46
You know what else I can't do? I don't know, like, like, never learned sounds funny- Yeah. [laughs]... but like, yeah, I don't think at any point in my life someone was, was like, uh...
36:53
My dad wasn't like, "All right, Kelly, let's go try to throw a Frisbee." You know what else escaped me in life? Can't blow a bubble with bubblegum. Can't blow a bubble. Okay. Can't figure it out.
37:01
That one, that one I've got. No. That one I've got down. Escapes me. Uh, let's recap all the bets from today's show. Um, which by the way, did Matthew Boyer have any bets? Did we check on him?
37:10
Uh, here are my t- That's the funniest thing you ever said all fair. That's the funniest thing I've ever heard Gil say on this. Really? That's the funniest... Uh, I had five tennis bets.
37:17
One has been played and one is a loser. Victoria Golubic lost to Beatriz Haddad Maia. Apparently Beatriz Haddad Maia has refound her game.
37:26
Uh, Golubic had some, uh, break point opportunities there at the end, and she, she gagged them both. So, uh, it was not a good, uh, it was not a good performance. That's a bad bet. That's a loser.
37:35
But four ready to go today as we try to continue the US Open flow, which has been great, on the heels of a three and one yesterday. On the men's side, Tristan Schoolkate, plus 370, versus Alexander Bublik.
37:48
Leono- uh, Leandro Riedi, plus 178, versus Francisco Cerundolo. And on the ladies' side, Diane Parry, minus 120, versus Renata Sarasua. I wonder if that's Sarasua, or if it's Sarasua.
38:00
And then Magdalena Frech, plus 175, versus Longhorn, Peyton Stearns. She went to Texas. Played college tennis there. That's a Texas name, Peyton Stearns. Yeah. Yeah. You have anything today? You know what? I did.
38:13
Uh, I added, talked about this yesterday. I did bet it finally last night. Panthers under their win total, under six and a half, plus 120. There you go. Bingo bango. Uh, Tim Murray, did he have anything?
38:25
Nothing from Ti- uh, it, all the lines- Nothing... had moved on Tim. All the lines had moved on Tim. But, but check out, yeah, that's what we were saying, check out the podcast. Check out the pod. Yep. They got more.
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Apply now at visa.com/gbank. That's visa.com/gbank. We have more are we sures to get to? We do. What we got? Are we sure... Nope. Nope, I'm sure you already read this one, Kelly.
39:10
Are we sure Aaron Judge to win the AL MVP is not a good bet right now, Gil? Yeah, you have to suffer with it again. I don't know if it, I don't know if it's not a good bet, but I wouldn't bet it. You wouldn't bet it?
39:21
Okay. Uh, any more to- I keep looking at that number and I'm like, ooh. I'll say it again. To me, it's coin flippy at this point. To me it's,
39:29
again, if, if Cal Raleigh gets 60 homers and Aaron Judge doesn't get to 50, it is my belief that that's all voters are gonna care about.
39:38
Regardless of all the other stuff that Aaron Judge is far better, uh, Cal, Cal Raleigh is a 240-something hitter, right? But it won't matter. Yeah. Not gonna matter.
39:46
On the other hand, if Cal Raleigh gets to 59 and Aaron Judge gets to 50 or 51, that might be enough for Aaron Judge to win it, especially if it, between now... What if the Yankees soar and the Mariners backpedal?
39:58
So there's a lot of things that could happen. The team stuff I think is, uh, I think that's kinda obvious. I, I, I hate to say that I think you're, I think you're laying it out perfectly.
40:08
Like, I wanna bet that Aaron Jud- Aaron Judge price right now. Yeah. But if, if, if Raleigh gets to 60 home runs. Yeah. I just don't th- I think you're right. Yeah. I don't think the rest of it matters.
40:17
None, none of it matters. And again, also there's gonna be a few voters that do it literally, where like, who is really the most valuable? Mm. And in that case, Aaron Judge is.
40:26
Because if you take Aaron Judge out of the Yankees lineup, I think it means way more than if you take Cal Raleigh out of the Mariners lineup.
40:32
Okay, are we sure the Saints and Browns should be the co-favorites to have the fewest wins? Mm, I guess. But I, I'm, you know, I'm low on the Giants. Do you know the, you know that number has moved though?
40:49
To- They have gotten a significantly longer- Yes... to be, to have the fewest wins. Yeah. 'Cause I think Jaxson Dart, uh, impressed in the preseason. Impressed folks. He, he impressed me, Gil. Are we leaving out a team?
41:03
Carolina Panthers? Carolina Panthers. Possibly. Yeah. They're only, I think they're like 12 to 1 or 13 to 1 on that. I don't know if that's good enough for me to get involved.
41:14
I'm, I'm very quickly, I'm considering buying off that Giants position. That's the first bet you and I both made. The, the season, the buying off the season win total? Under five and a half, yeah. Really? Okay.
41:23
Secondary still stinks. I know. I, I, but the, I think the quarterback situation might be better for season long than I thought it was gonna be. So many good players in the front seven on defense.
41:33
And the pass rush is so good. Yeah. Yeah. And Malik Nabers is awesome. I don't know.
41:37
By the way, so many people going into week one, how many times have you heard, "Oh, I don't know, when Giants playing against Washington seem pretty live to me."
41:44
W- if Washington beat them by like two touchdowns, would you be shocked? 14 to 1 on Carolina. Thank you, Danny. Uh, no, I would not be shocked. Yeah. Okay. All right.
41:53
Are we sure- There's just, just a lot, a lot, a lot of too mu- too much negativity on Washington, by the way. I don't know if I would... All right. Yeah. Uh, are we sure the Bills...
42:03
Okay, Bills versus Eagles, Ravens, Ravens versus Eagles, both 13 to 1 to be the Super Bowl exact matchup. Should those be the favorites? Yes, those should be the short shots. Yeah.
42:17
Niners will have something to say about it. Lions will have something to say about it. But as far as where they should be slotted c- cr- now, yes, they should be the short shots. Agreed.
42:26
Um- I don't really have any concerns about the Eagles sliding back. I, I think they are still the team to beat in the NFC. I think they're too well-rounded, uh, of a team.
42:35
I think they could even withstand some injuries, uh, if need be. They're still the team to beat in, in the NFC. I have no idea who the, who's end- who's gonna end up being that second-best team in the NFC. I don't know.
42:46
Detroit or San Francisco. I think there's even others that could be involved. Well, I m- again, you have in Jayden Daniels, uh, I don't wanna hear people say sophomore slump 'cause you didn't watch this kid play.
42:59
That's right. Okay. W- Yeah... Washington could, could easily- Yeah... be there to me. I think the Rams could be there. I could, I could see the Vi- if McCarthy's good, I think the Vikings could be there.
43:08
God, see, I'd go the opposite with them. Yeah. If you're waiting on another arm, we're sure we're done. Oh, that's all we got? Well, we did get, uh- Oh, [laughs] I'm sitting here waiting for another one. Yeah, yeah.
43:17
We're done. We did get one. I forget who tweeted this in. Yeah. I did copy and paste it. Are we sure this is a, this is a fan tweet? Yeah, fan tweet. Audience tweet. Yep. Are we sure J.J.
43:26
McCarthy should be the fifth favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, or even is he eligible, seeing how he hasn't arrived yet? I, I'm with you. I don't think he should be eligible. Throw him off the board. Yeah.
43:37
No, he should not be eligible. He should not be eligible. I, I don't even- What is he coming back from? Eligible, schm eligible at this point. Just don't bet it. That, don't bet it. No.
43:43
People, they, he should not be in consideration from voters.
43:46
But where, how have we gotten to the point where people will con- it, where, where it's a thing where a guy who hasn't even played a snap could be Comeback Player of the Year? No. Stop it. Well, there was the...
43:57
I mean, we kinda did comically bring this... not comically, 'cause the situation was not funny at all, but Ricky Pearsall last year. Right. Right? It was like, "Uh, is he eligible?" 'Cause he didn't get hurt.
44:07
Ricky Pearsall walking out of Union Square shot. God, what a crazy story. Just walking, just walking into the ambulance. Prop points is next with John Hanson. He'll do that for an hour.
44:17
Then it's Money Moves with Stormy and JBT. That leads into Follow the Money with Mitch and Paul. That is your daily lineup here at VSiN. Thank you for listening. Thank you to Crack. Thank you to Matthew Boyer.
44:27
That was fun. What a show. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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