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Aug 29, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:32
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Transcript
0:00
Tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:09
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, where sports betting lives. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the Dig. Yeah, let's go.
0:23
Thursday, football, football, football. We're shaking. That much, man. Dude, college football's shaking. You're absolutely right. Uh, Colorado in action that, tonight, that's always a lightning rod.
0:32
Tim Murray will join us in a bit, um, to talk about all of his college football plays. Maybe he doesn't have one in this Colorado game tonight, I don't know. Maybe not.
0:41
This Colorado North Dakota State game is the quintessential I can't possibly figure out which side to play game, and so you have to apply the, uh, what's that, the Sunday morning th- uh, theory.
0:54
If it were in the middle, like the NFL thing that I always say. Yeah. If we were in the middle of the, the early block of NFL games, would you play this game? No, obviously Colorado North Dakota State.
1:00
I, I'm, I'm glad you hit the pause button right here. Yeah. 'Cause remember we played the, the whole game last week with NFL bets of like, "What's the bet you've heard the most?" Yes. That sort of thing.
1:10
Week one college football, the bet I've heard the most is North Dakota State- Oh... and taking the points. It's got the, uh, that for sure, and this game has the most handle by fact. Yeah. Right?
1:20
More than any of the three marquee match-ups, which, uh, we'll get Tim's thoughts on as well, all of his best bets. It is Zack and Crack Thursday, though. Don't forget that. Zach Cohen will join us, US Open bets.
1:29
He's got some college football thoughts. And Crack Man, I shouldn't have to run from a Crack Man. Bill Krackenberg coming up, uh, second hour, unscripted with the Crack Man. Um, tennis plays to start this show.
1:41
Can we do that again? The United States Open, the greatest show on earth, uh, happening in, uh, New York right now. Uh, second part of the second round of state. By the way, yesterday, two and one for a winning day.
1:52
We lost on Gael Monfils. We won on, uh, Stearns and on Echeverri. We lost on Gael Monfils as a dog to Casper Ruud. The end of that match happened after the, the last scheduled matches of the day.
2:05
That one got suspended and then p- the, the very end of it got played afterwards. And, um, we didn't deserve to win. What? We, so we, the Mon- Monfils Ruud match got stopped because of rain. They were on outdoor court.
2:16
Oh, okay. So the Djokovic, they let the Djoko- you know, Djokovic and, and all those guys were playing in center court by themselves. Djokovic won by, uh, Djere pulling out. And, um, what was the other match?
2:29
Fritz was crushing Berrettini. Like, Djokovic should have shaken early in that, right? He, well- Like, what was going on with him? He was having a medical issue. Yeah.
2:34
And then for a moment it looked like he was gonna drop the second set. I thought he was. And then Djere, he ended up with a medical issue. He had to withdraw from the match.
2:41
Um, so there's only the two indoors happening, but then it stopped raining and, uh, there was a tiebreaker in the fourth set. Monfils, he couldn't stay alive. He ended up losing.
2:49
But one of the points in that tiebreaker is what I was getting to, where he was literally toying with Ruud, like sending him back and forth on the court like a little kid.
2:57
And then he was lollygagging with the, uh, with the slams, and Ruud with a, just a running cross-court forehand winner, which is probably the shot of the tournament so far. Um, but we end up two and one.
3:07
That's a winning day. Today, five plays. Five, count them, uh, in, at the US Open. Two on the ladies' side, three on the men's side. On the ladies' side, I've got Karolina Muchova.
3:20
Uh, you know I have her to win the quarter. I got her against Naomi Osaka.
3:23
Nobody, with the exception of maybe Aryna Sabalenka, has looked better in the, uh, first couple rounds here than h- did Naomi Osaka in her match, her opening match against, uh, Jelena Ostapenko.
3:36
I got Muchova here at plus 127. Now it's plus 114 now. Remember, vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport that they're betting, every play is at vsin.com/picks. That is for subscribers.
3:50
So I'm 13 cents better on Muchova. Don't let it get any lower. Don't let it get lower than plus 110. Um, but it's plus 114 right now. I got her plus 127 last night against Osaka.
4:04
Um, her year-long hard court numbers are just better, as great as Osaka has been playing. And then I'm taking a flyer on, uh, Jessie Bouzas Maneiro over Katie Boulter.
4:13
Bouzas Maneiro is, uh, a feisty player who at this price absolutely had to play. She is at plus 139. You can still play her here. Don't let her get below the plus 130s.
4:25
So again, pays to be a subscriber 'cause you get a lot, you know, usually, there, there are exceptions to this, but usually we're getting a lot better in terms of CLV, which hasn't really necessarily translated to wins, I have to say, but that's the point of all this.
4:37
Men's side, uh, the big dog is Jordan Thompson. Taking Jordan Thompson against Hubert Hurkacz, who's, uh, a serve bot. He's g- Hurkacz is gonna have to rely on his serve.
4:48
Thompson, uh, plus 161 now, still very playable, not quite as good as last night's number, plus 173. Still playable, but Thompson's a good returner as well.
4:56
So Hurkacz is gonna have to really be sharp, and Jordan Thompson way, uh, w- this price is way out of whack to me. So plus 160, uh, plus 173 last night on Jordan Thompson over Hurkacz.
5:10
Then Daniel Evans, we didn't mention this yesterday when I was talking about all the, uh, the greatness of the US Open. Daniel Evans is coming off the longest match in the history of the US Open.
5:19
He beat Karen Khachanov in five sets in five hours and 35 minutes the other day. I was just sitting here wondering. I'm like, "Isn't that the guy from the other day?" He is the guy from the other day.
5:27
So a lot, you know, this line is muted to me because people are like, "Oh, he's gonna be tired." Right. Yeah. Um, you can get him at about six cents better than I got him.
5:35
He's minus 106, so I think the market is really paying it, is really falling on the fact that he played a five-hour, 35-minute match. Which, like, I get.
5:43
I get, but- But, like, how, how much do you think they're building that into the price? Like- I think the market is- Would this be minus 130 if this was a normal, I don't know, two and a half hour match?
5:52
Uh, I had it priced at about minus 129, minus 128- Okay... when I was doing mine. So I, I got minus 112 last night. Navone's, Navone's, uh, hard court numbers are not good.
6:02
I'm taking Daniel Evans, who is a slice machine and just an annoying player to play. And then finally, Nuno Borges At plus 115 over Thanasi Kokkinakis. I'd love to be an annoying player to play.
6:13
[laughs] Like, "Slice," and then, like, yelling every time too, "Slice." You're just gonna say it out loud? [laughs] That's, uh, that's actually the same price that it is now.
6:20
So Muchova and Bouzkes Manero on the ladies' side, Jordan Thompson, Daniel Evans, and Nuno Borges on the men's side. Let's go. US Open, baby. Like it. Like it. Can't wait. Can't wait. Um,
6:33
can we talk about wide receiver drama real quick? Let's do it. 'Cause we got guests and we got Craig. We gotta get to a lot of stuff.
6:38
Well, first of all, uh, for those who did have Jacoby Brissett as your starting quarterback for the New England Patriots and laid a big price, I know that got dicey for you.
6:46
I know it got scary, but Jerod Mayo says it will be Jacoby Brissett, uh, as the week one starter versus the Bengals. Um,
6:54
that according to Adam Schefter per, uh, Jeremy Fowler, I believe, uh, initially, but both of them get credit.
7:01
Um, but that's the story, and Jerod Mayo very clear when announcing that it's Jacoby Brissett, if you could read through his, you know, read between the lines.
7:09
He kind of was saying, "I know Drake May is a better quarterback than Jacoby Brissett, and this will change at some point. But for now, we're going with the veteran." Is that a, is that a good read on what he said? Yeah.
7:20
I think so. I also think there, there was... I mean, I think winning Tim and Russell Wilson, like, good on anybody who cashed tickets out there, or, you know, not yet, right?
7:29
'Cause first snap, first snap of [laughs] week one. That's right, Mike Tomlin. We haven't cashed anything yet, but, uh- We are, we are s- I'm not surprised about the Russell Wilson thing. But that's all good.
7:36
Nor should anybody be. I, I think it was gonna be those two all along. Yep. No matter really what happened in the preseason. Uh, the Brissett injury thing caused a wobble. Good, good, good point, yes. Yeah.
7:44
Yeah, uh, that was the only way I think that would've changed. Uh- E- even with the, the, like, there is. I think that was a... I mean, what?
7:51
The, the, the Steelers, you could say both of those [laughs] quarterbacks didn't look all that great in the preseason.
7:56
But I think New England, yeah, there w- you could make the case that Drake May looked a little better than Jacoby Brissett, but it's just, the point remains, we talked all offseason about with this Patriots team, it's j- the off- offensive line's terrible.
8:08
Yeah. So what, you're just gonna run the kid out there and he's- Don't get the kid killed. Yeah, you're gonna get him killed. Don't, don't make him- You're gonna kill his confidence. Don't make him be David Carr. Yeah.
8:15
Yeah. Exactly. Um, but anyway, you could kind of read between the lines. At some point it will be May, but it will be Brissett opening day, taking the first snap anyway. Uh, you hope.
8:24
You hope that's not some Wildcat nonsense, uh, if you have a Brissett ticket. Wilson, as, as Kelly mentioned, Russell Wilson named the starter for the Steelers. No surprise there.
8:31
Uh, the Chargers, I guess they finally decided, "Oh, our, uh, starting quarterback has a plantar fasciitis problem. Maybe we should solidify the backup position, and Easton Stick isn't the way to go."
8:41
So they signed Taylor Heinicke, or they traded for Taylor Heinicke, I should say. I have no idea why I haven't bet the under on their win total yet.
8:47
I still, I still think [laughs] if there's one last NFL futures bet I'm gonna make, it is that. Sixth round pick goes to the Falcons for Taylor Heinicke.
8:55
And then the wide receiver drama, which I was just briefly referring to. This is getting a little weird in both Cincinnati and San Francisco. Well, San Francisco, it's been weird all summer.
9:03
This Brandon Aiyuk thing is just ridiculous. Again, he's good. He's very good. But, like, to have this as the number one ongoing football story of the entire off-season, uh, it feels like anyway.
9:17
Brandon Aiyuk cleared medically, still not at practice. After the Niners trimmed their roster to 53 players, he was cleared by the medical staff according to head coach Kyle Shanahan.
9:25
That clearance was the driving force behi- behind Shanahan then saying, "Hey, um, you know, I think, uh, Brandon Aiyuk is gonna practice," talking about yesterday.
9:34
And then, uh, John Lynch, the GM, adding later that Aiyuk practicing was the expectation. And then guess what? Brandon Aiyuk didn't practice. And John Lynch was not happy about it. [laughs] He was not happy about it.
9:45
So I guess the way this has been working is they've been cutting him some slack because they've been calling it medical reasons why he hasn't been there, and now yesterday was the first official day where they were like, "Okay, you need to be at practice.
9:57
Like, you've been medically cleared. You're- D- You need to be at practice." Daily fines could be coming. Right. Yeah, he was not getting fined before, right? That's what it sounds like could start to happen now.
10:07
And as I talked about earlier in the week, as a fan of the Washington Football Team, WFT as we like to call them,
10:14
Trent Williams not playing is the worst possible thing that could happen to a franchise, and I think the Brandon Aiyuk thing is just, I hate to say it, lesser than the Trent Williams thing.
10:24
Trent Williams decided in DC, "You messed up with me. I'm never playing for you again," and he stuck to it. And not that Washington was as good then as San Francisco is now, but that's a huge deal.
10:35
What's the overreaction gonna be like when the Jets roll into San Francisco and beat them by, like, 17? [laughs] Well, you talk about, you talk about bets- We'll, we'll, we'll be crying... bets we haven't made yet.
10:45
Jets' money line is a bet I haven't made. I bet them against the spread, but I haven't bet a money line yet.
10:48
Uh, Jamar Chase in Cincinnati, less than 24 hours after Zach Taylor, the Bengals head coach, said that Chase would, will, uh, continue to practice this week, Chase did not participate- [laughs]...
10:58
as the team continued its preparation for its season opener. Oh, yeah. So I don't know, like, I mean, in both cases, should the Bengals be worried? Should the, should Bengals fans or backers be worried?
11:08
Should bettors be worried? Same thing with the Niners. I mean, I think with the Niners, as I said with Trent Williams, I think you need to be more worried about that than anything. Yeah. Yeah, I agreed.
11:17
I still think that Jamar Chase is gonna show up at this point, but I mean, I, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but the, uh, the NFL season starts next week. Well, it, it, and it's that, right? Like, we...
11:26
I feel like all off-season, Jamar Chase maybe more so than anybody, uh, uh, you know, CeeDee Lamb included, like, it was just assumed this, this deal was gonna get worked out, and yeah, we, we start playing football really soon here.
11:38
You know what they say about assuming. I will get into it. When we come back, Zach Cohen, college football, US Open, he's got it all next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:55
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live here from Bar Canada at The D. Gil Alexander, Kelly Billings.
12:03
By the way, uh, for those looking for a clarification on the exact fine, Brandon Aiyuk could face a daily fine of up to $45,000, uh, $45,769. Kelly, let's get it to the dollar.
12:15
[laughs] I love when we are that specific in sports. If he misses multiple daily team activities amid his hold in for a new contract.
12:22
Hold in You know, it's, what are, what are always the ones we talk about, like the Donny Brooks, they always have to be old-fashioned, right? Like- Donny Brooks are always old-fashioned...
12:30
accrue, you never really use that word unless you're talking money. You know what I mean? Like, hey, can I accrue other things? The other thing is, uh, broad daylight only applies to bad things that happen.
12:40
Like, I don't say hi to you in broad daylight, but I- Yeah. [laughs] But I murder you in broad daylight. That's a good call. That's a- I, we haven't talked about that one before. That's a- That's a good one.
12:48
[laughs] Broad daylight, everybody. My mom loved broad daylight. "In broad daylight."
12:53
Ladies and gentlemen, he's part of the glue that holds this all together, betting on X is where you can find him on Twitter, and of course, he, uh, is everywhere at vsin.com on multiple sports.
13:03
It's our buddy Zach Cohen, who was also kind enough to be on the, uh, the US Open Megapod the other day, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Zach? I'm a little upset.
13:12
I had Laslo Djere plus nine and a half games last night- Oh... which seemed like it was done. I mean, I needed one more game in that third set to win, and he retired.
13:20
Do you feel like, I, when I was watching that, the thought occurred to me, I'm by myself, so I didn't say it out loud, but the thought occurred to me, I'm like, Novak Djokovic has some mystical power.
13:30
Like, he's just, um, you're, you're watching this match, and if you've watched Djokovic a million times, like those of us tennis hardos have, you're like, "Oh, wow, it looks like he could drop this second set.
13:40
Should I make an in, in-match wager on Djere?" And the next se- the next split second, you're like, "There's not a chance in hell I'm doing that." But it looked like, right?
13:48
It looked like Djokovic was, some, the trainer's hand was down his pants, like, working on his lower ab. It was, like, really kind of odd.
13:55
And then the next thing you know, you look up and it's Djere who's got, he's got a withdrawal from the match. It's like, how does he... It's, like, am- amazing. Beyond his actual talent, this mystical power as well.
14:06
Yeah, I saw some tweet that was like, uh, "US Open after dark," with the trainer putting his hand down Djokovic's pants. [laughs] That's right.
14:12
I think, yeah, that, that's always a weird matchup between him and Djere, because obviously they're, you know, they're both Serbian. I think that they're longtime friends.
14:19
It seems like he kind of has, you know, a lot of confidence in the matchup because, just because he's so familiar with his game. But yeah, it is strange. It just, he's always dealing with something physically.
14:28
It never actually ends up, you know, taking him out of a tournament or anything. The only thing that's ever really taken him out of a tournament was him hitting, you know, a ball pers- ball person with the ball.
14:35
That's right. That's the one thing he couldn't get past. What was the first set when they were trying to get the electrolytes to him or whatever?
14:40
I had to hit the rewind on, on the, on the TV too, 'cause I had it on mute. I'm like, "What? Why is this coach, like, slipping the Balkan at 20 or something?" Like, I thought he was giving him money.
14:49
I was so confused for a second. [laughs] Uh, how has your US Open gone so far betting-wise, Zach? Uh, it's been pretty good, uh, until yesterday. I had a pretty tough day yesterday. I didn't get that Djere one home.
15:00
I, I did end up playing Berrettini and Fritz over, uh, three and a half sets at, you know, minus 172, so I laid some juice and- Ooh... ended up losing that one. Yeah.
15:09
I thought that Berrettini was gonna get that second set tiebreaker. Really collapsed after that. But other than that, it's been good.
15:15
Uh, and I, you know, my futures are still alive, even though hanging on by a thread with Yuri Lehecka to win, uh, quarter four. He barely beat Mitchell Krueger yesterday.
15:23
But yeah, feeling, uh, feeling pretty good about everything. That Mitchell Krueger match, I was, I was telling the boys that Mitchell Krueger was one of the last ones I cut out from my plays yesterday.
15:32
And at, when he was up two, he was up two sets to nothing, and up three-love in the third set, and I'm just killing myself for not making the play. And then, you know, couple hours later, you're like, "See?
15:44
That's, that's why I didn't make the play right there, right there. That's why." Um, okay, what do you have today?
15:50
I have Facundo Diaz Acosta plus eight and a half games against Jack Draper, and that's one where, you know, I really wouldn't have had any interest in it unless the spread was that big.
15:58
I just think that Draper is a player I'm really high on. I think he's incredible, but that is a lot of respect from the oddsmakers.
16:05
Diaz Acosta is a pretty solid player with, you know, a decently big serve, a really big forehand. Uh, I think that he's capable of holding enough in that match to cover a spread that big.
16:16
And, you know, Draper's a player that obviously has had physical issues in the past at majors. It's not supposed to be hot today.
16:22
It's actually supposed to be pretty cool, like 76 degrees, but it is supposed to be humid, so I could see Draper, you know, struggling with that a little bit.
16:29
And, you know, that's the type of match where, you know, he wins 6-4, 6-4, 6-3. You end up winning the, the play on the, on the underdog. So I took plus eight and a half in that one.
16:38
Uh, I also went with Max Purcell plus two and a half sets against Tommy Paul, which is, you know, a scary one as well, just because Paul is a player that really should beat Purcell rather easily.
16:48
Uh, but I do think that Tommy plays with his food a little bit too much. I, and I also think we saw it, you know, in his first round match against Lorenzo Sonego. Paul really dominated him for the entirety of that match.
16:58
Was up a break in the third set to go win in straights. Uh, ended up getting broken from out of nowhere, and then got broken again to lose that set.
17:05
And I think that playing against Purcell, a player that is a really big server, has a good serve and volley game, has a really straightforward game, uh, you can't really afford to just mess around out there at all.
17:14
So I think that Tommy's in danger of losing, you know, one set in that match. I like the, uh, I'm starting to warm to the "plays with his food" analogy that, uh- Mm-hmm... that's getting bandied about these days.
17:24
Very, very descriptive. Uh, Max Purcell, by the way, Kelly, if you're scoring at home, boyfriend of Priscilla Han, uh, a player who, uh, gave Aryna Sabalenka a little run the other night.
17:32
[laughs] I was like, "Am I supposed to know who that is?" [laughs] Uh, if you, if you had watched, you would know what I mean. Um, all right, uh- Google...
17:39
let us, let us switch to, uh, college football, where you have, uh, you've really stepped up the college football writing this year, haven't you?
17:46
Yeah, I did it a lot last year, uh, but this year I was just way more prepared going into the season. I read, like, every single guide there was to read.
17:52
I've, I've done a lot of research, uh, so I was really pumped to get going this year. Okay. Um, you wrote, uh, specifically, I see the headline here, talking about, uh, Heisman Trophy watch already here week one.
18:03
That was a subject you, uh, you tackled. Do you, are you touching this Colorado game tonight? Let's start there. No, I'm not touching anything tonight, actually. I'm, I'm getting first into the action on Saturday.
18:13
Uh, that column, it- it's really just kind of a look at what games you need to watch heading into this weekend if you are looking at the Heisman Trophy market.
18:20
So I'm not really giving out any plays in it, but, you know, I'm highlighting what's at stake in the game, like Texas A&M and Notre Dame, where, you know, Notre Dame has Riley Leonard, a player that a lot of people like to win the Heisman Trophy, and, uh, Texas A&M has a player in Connor Wegman, who people think, you know, can potentially, you know, win the award if Texas A&M does live up to expectations and win 10 or so games.
18:40
So that is a column without much picks in it, but it does have, you know, s- I'm setting the table for, uh, a big Saturday of match-ups, uh, and a Sunday game between LSU and USC that also could potentially have Heisman implications down the road.
18:53
What's, what's the Carson Beck theory? That he's gotta destroy in this game, or anything short of that, it's like he's behind the eight ball already? I don't know.
19:01
I think if he just throws for, like, 250 yards and two touchdowns and a win, it is going to do enough, just because Clemson's defense was top 10 in the country last year.
19:09
Uh, they're thought of very highly heading into this season as well.
19:11
So I think that, you know, more unlike anybody else, like, he just has to play his game against an elite defense, and he's going to be in pretty good shape as we, know, we start the season.
19:20
But he is, you know, second on the odds board. People are expecting him to compete in that market this year. I'm really not a Carson Beck guy.
19:27
It's all a little crazy to me of seeing him going, you know, number one in the 2025 NFL draft, uh, mock drafts right now. But, you know, he's playing on a team that, you know, protects for him, has a lot of playmakers.
19:37
All he really has to do is distribute the ball really quickly, and he's gonna put up huge numbers this year. Uh, which bets did, did you, do you care to share from Saturday that you've made?
19:47
Uh, one that I really warmed up on, you know, after seeing what we saw in week zero, is Arizona minus 30 against New Mexico.
19:53
I just thought that we saw New Mexico's defensive line get absolutely handled by, you know, Montana State, an FCS program.
20:00
Arizona's offensive linemen, you know, on average, are, like, 20 to 30 pounds bigger than those Montana, Montana State offensive linemen. So I think you're going to see the Wildcats really dominate in the ground game.
20:11
And I think if, you know, if New Mexico does end up, you know, overplaying the box at all, Noah Fifita is going to pick them apart. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
20:20
Uh, you know, had a huge year a year ago, had NIL offers to go to the biggest programs in college football in the off-season. Chose to stay at Arizona.
20:28
So I think it's a game that Arizona's going to be really tough to stop. I also think that the Arizona defense was pretty good last year.
20:33
They return, you know, enough talent that I think that they'll be able to really slow down New Mexico, who I don't think has much of, you know, a passing game or a running game.
20:41
So I think it's a game that has the potential to turn into a really lopsided affair.
20:45
Uh, I also think, you know, with Brennan being his first game in Arizona, taking over for Fish, who took, you know, the high prestige job at Washington, I think that they're going to keep their foot on the gas for the entire game.
20:55
So I think that's going to be a really big blowout in Arizona. Before you go, Zach, uh, Kelly and I, a little later this hour, we're gonna go through the pro football betting guide.
21:03
Uh, not our own picks necessarily, although we'll touch on that. We're gonna go through everybody else's picks and pick the ones we like the best. What is your own, of your own that you like per- perhaps above the rest?
21:15
I- in the new guide, I, I gave out a pick of Jared Goff to, uh, lead the league in passing yards. I, I see everybody at the network is on that MVP pick.
21:24
I agree with the logic that Goff is going to light it up, you know, playing 14 of his first 15 games indoors.
21:30
I just can't get there with MVP, because I think that Goff has a reputation in the league as, like, you know, a g- not a game manager, but I think he has a br- reputation as a quarterback that needs help from elite offensive coaches in order to put up big numbers, and I just kinda can't see him winning the MVP award.
21:46
But with something statistical like that, you can't deny him. So I think that there's going to be a lot of passing yards this year.
21:51
He was second in the league last year behind Tua Tagovailoa, who I think [laughs] only will, you know, led the league in passing yards because of what he did against the Chargers in week one. Hmm.
22:00
So I think that Goff's in really good shape to, uh, lead the league in passing. And yeah, I, I would stay away from that MVP market, but I would still go for a double-digit payout on the passing yards.
22:09
I like, I like your strategy. I'm with you on MVP, 'cause he put up huge numbers last year, didn't even sniff it, right? So- Yep... you wonder what the bar has to be for that. Thank you, Zach.
22:17
Appreciate it as always, man. Good luck with the tennis plays. Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen, betting on X. By the way, the, uh, updated NFL betting guide with post-pre-season updates for every team, vsin.com/subscribe.
22:30
Lock in your VSIN Pro access through football season for only $175, or start a monthly subscription for just $19 and see how VSIN Pro can make you a better bettor. Everybody's bets, everybody's explanations.
22:41
Kelly and I will go through some of them a little later on. Tim Murray on the other side with college football plays. That's next, right here on The Numbers Game. A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network.
22:53
Hey, tonight is the final episode of Circus Survivor, the quest for $9.2 million. By the way, episode four was outstanding. Episode four was excellent. The final episode tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, right here on VSIN.
23:05
Five-part docuseries taking you inside the high-stakes world of the annual Circus Survivor contest as we follow the contestants throughout the 2023 NFL season. Uh, VSIN well-represented as well in this. Multiple hosts.
23:18
Uh, you can watch the final episode tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific, on vsin.com and YouTube TV, as well as a live broadcast on X. Go to vsin.com/survivor for details or to watch previous episodes.
23:30
Uh, it was great. The villain, Sean Perry, was prominently featured last night.
23:34
Tonight's episode is all about the, uh, the eventual winners and how they got to the end and what they decided to do with the money and all that stuff. It's excellent. I'm gonna have to catch up on it all.
23:45
You sound very moved by all this. How many, how many... No, I want...
23:48
No, I'm over here thinking, like, I, I gotta catch up on stuff, but I'm still interested to see how many, how many of those guys are willing to talk, what they're willing to talk about. It's- Yeah.
23:57
It's, it's, it's great. By the way, my, my oldest, dearest friend in the world, my best friend, Tommy in DC, he just texted me this morning. He's like, "Hey, you wanna go in on one of those together?
24:05
Want a Survivor entry?" And I'm like, "Oh, okay." I've got... I already had in my mind I was gonna have my five So I think I'm gonna get a sixth, which is just me and him Yeah, I can't do that.
24:17
It's funny you say that 'cause I got, you know, my, I got, I got my buddy Casey I've brought up multiple times on this show. Oh, everybody's got a Casey. We split, we split a Millions entry.
24:25
But to me, and he asked me, he's like, "You wanna split, split a Survivor one this year, too?" And I'm like, "No." I told- No...
24:30
I told, that's what I told Tommy I think Millions is easier to do with someone else than, than Survivor I, it's exactly what I told Tommy, and I think he's offended. I'm like, "Dude, I play this differently than you are.
24:38
We're just gonna get into an argument. Inevitably it's gonna lose- Right... and one of us is gonna be mad at the other person." [laughs] Right. Exactly. Exactly. And he's like, "I don't care, Gilly. Let's do it."
24:45
I'm like, "Okay, fine." When you do Millions, the worst thing that ha- like, the worst case scenario is someone ends up getting three one week, and like, the next, the, the next week the other person gets three.
24:55
Yeah, even that's a pain. It is. It is. You know who else is from DC? Tim Murray, everybody. Vsan Zone, co-host of Vsan Prime Time joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line to talk some college football.
25:06
What's happening, Tim? What's up, man? I'm, uh, yeah, I, I concur with all that you guys have said. The doc has been awesome, and, uh, reminds me of the scars of last year.
25:16
[laughs] How far did you get last year, if I might ask? Week three. [laughs] Week three. I wasn't much, that wasn't much farther. I was part of the carnage.
25:25
I had the Jaguars against the Texans, and then I also had Cowboys against the Cardinals. Oh, I c- I certainly remember at least one of those, yes. Okay. Yeah. Well, better luck to you this year, my friend.
25:38
Um- Oh, thank you. Yes. Uh- Let us begin 'cause I know you- Hey, this is the year, right? This is the- As everyone always says... this is the year, Tim. Uh, maybe a 10 million, 11 million, 12 million.
25:49
Who knows what it's gonna be this year. I'm looking forward to being out week one with those Buccaneers. [laughs] Oh, no. [laughs] Uh, okay. College football.
25:56
I know you have a lot to say here, Tim, and I wanna get to the marquee. You just, you can even, even if you don't wanna play, just little nuggets on- Yeah... the marquee match-ups. Sure.
26:02
But can we start with a little nugget on tonight's game? Are you playing Colorado North D- uh, North Dakota State at all tonight? I haven't gotten involved in it yet.
26:11
Um, North Dakota State, uh, you know, if you want a nugget, their All-American safety is out for, uh, the foreseeable future, so eight interceptions a year ago.
26:20
PFF graded him as, I believe, the top safety in college football just a season ago. Uh, I'm fascinated to see this game, Gil. I do have, uh, a bet against Colorado in week three.
26:30
Uh, the South Point has a nine out there, uh, with Colorado State hosting Colorado. So from a, a game of the year standpoint, I do have some exposure against Colorado.
26:41
But, you know, to be honest, Gil, this was a game that I never really wanted to get involved in. It felt like it would become, like, too cute to, uh, to get in on the, uh, the FCS power that is North Dakota State.
26:51
Mm-hmm. Um, you know, we saw this get up to high as 10. It has now bounced back a little bit to nine and a half. But very curious to see, uh, how this plays out.
26:59
The, the one thing that I would be a little curious about is, is the total.
27:04
Uh, I'm not normally a big totals guy, Gil, but I, I do think, and I heard, uh, someone mention this, uh, either on the network or on a podcast somewhere where, you know, you got Pat Shurmur as the offensive coordinator.
27:15
No longer Sean Lewis, who was, you know, the flash fast, uh, you know, offensive coordinator that got unceremoniously let go last year.
27:23
And then North Dakota State, I can't imagine they're gonna wanna, you know, go up-tempo. So I do wonder if 60 and a half is, is a little, uh, rich for this game.
27:33
So that would be a, maybe a way I would li- uh, look to attack it, maybe an under on this game.
27:38
But very curious to see how Colorado looks from an offensive line standpoint because obviously that was their downfall just a year ago. All right. Uh, let's get the marquee games out of the way. Yep.
27:48
Do you have anything on Clemson, Georgia? Georgia favored by 13 and a half. Anything on LSU and USC? That's, uh, four and a half now. And I kn- I, I know better than to even ask this question 'cause I know the answer.
28:01
Your Notre Dame Fighting Irish, you must have a thought on them and A&M. All right.
28:06
I know we have five and a half minutes left, so I don't wanna spend the enti- entire time on it, but I have many thoughts on Notre Dame Texas A&M.
28:13
Uh, first off, in pocket is an under bet, and I still think it's good at 46 and a half, anywhere it's, like, 45 and a half. I think these defenses should own this game.
28:23
Uh, when you look at Notre Dame's defense, uh, there were some questions about the health regarding their corner, Benjamin Morrison. Uh, he said he's good to go coming off off-season shoulder surgery.
28:34
There was questions about Howard Cross, their sixth year defensive tackle dealing with a hamstring injury. From everything that's been reported, he should be good to go.
28:42
And then on the flip side, Texas A&M, Gil, uh, they've got a loaded up defensive front. Yes, they lost Walter Nolen, uh, who was thought to be by many the best transfer out there, and he left to go to Ole Miss.
28:53
But they brought i- brought in Nick Scorton from Purdue. Uh, Bruce Feldman rated him as the third most impactful transfer this year. And Notre Dame has a career six starts on their offensive line. That's not ideal.
29:08
So I do think the defenses should, uh, own this game. I think it's more of a, an ugly, uh, type of primetime game. So I would still look under 46 and a half, which is out there to, at a couple of shops still.
29:20
Uh, even 46 worth playable, but, uh, this was as high as 49 in the off-season. Uh, quickly on the other games, Gil, I'll, I'll mention, uh, Clemson, Georgia. I, I'm so intrigued by this game.
29:31
I haven't gotten to the window yet, but I, I'm looking a little bit towards Clemson here. It does feel like Dabo has gotten, you know, just a ton of negativity, eh, rightfully so- Yeah... this off-season. Yep.
29:43
He refuses to go into the transfer portal. They've dealt with, uh, a little bit of injuries on the defensive side. Um, I'm fascinated to see how Garrett Riley, year two as their offensive coordinator.
29:53
Uh, remember his last stop prior to Clemson was TCU, helping guide them to the College Football Championship game. Uh, and then Georgia. You know, life without Brock Bowers. Life without Ladd McConkie.
30:04
Colby Young, who they brought in from Miami, dealing with some injuries. Uh, I believe Etienne, who they brought in in the transfer portal, uh, could potentially be out for this game as well.
30:13
So I, I think Clemson Could, uh, keep this game competitive here with, uh, with their defense. And then lastly, I'll go to, you know, Sunday night. And I, I...
30:23
You know, we- Gil, I'm of the, of the belief here, because, you know, if you know anything about college football, LSU fans travel, and they are going to be in this town, uh, in droves, starting probably today.
30:36
There's gonna be a lot of purple all around this city. And I think this could potentially get bet up a little bit, but I, I just, I'm looking at this game and I'm curious about these two defenses.
30:48
How much better are they this year? Blake Baker comes in as the new defensive coordinator for LSU, Gil. And then USC, they go out and get DeAntoni Lynn, Anthony Lynn's son, from UCLA.
31:00
They also added Doug Belk from Houston. They added North Dakota State's former head coach. So, uh, I'm just very intrigued to see how these defenses stand up.
31:09
Obviously, people would think that they aren't, because the total has been bet up to 64 and a half.
31:13
But, uh, USC is something I don't have in pocket yet, but I'm looking a little bit at the Trojans here, uh, on Sunday night at, uh, Allegiant Stadium. Yeah, this was six. Dr. Bob took the six with USC.
31:25
It, uh, immediately crashed to four and a half, uh, in favor of LSU. All right, what did you bet besides the under in the Notre Dame game? Yeah, a couple games that, uh, are in pocket.
31:35
Um, I do have some Wyoming plus seven, and I'll give a t- uh, tip of the cap here to, uh, JBT. Yeah. JBT wrote up the Mountain West, as well as the Big 12 for our VSiN College Football Betting Guide.
31:47
And we saw this number open seven, go down to six and a half, some mo- movement back towards Arizona State. Um, you know, the question I have about Wyoming, obviously Craig Bohl has retired, uh, but they stayed in house.
32:00
Uh, Craig Savelle, uh, comes in as their, uh, new head coach. Uh, Jay Savell, excuse me. So, um, you know, Evan Svoboda, if you're watching this game late night, wears number 17, Gil. He's six foot five, 240 pounds.
32:14
So, uh, a little reminiscent of a, a pretty famous Wyoming former quarterback. [laughs] And I, I just, I think Wyoming should be able to hang in this game at Arizona State. So that was one.
32:24
And then lastly, this was kind of a hold my nose special here, but I took the 21 with Georgia State.
32:32
I am so intrigued to see how Georgia Tech responds after going abroad, beating Florida State, having all of the accolades and the positivity, and now you had to come home. It's probably gonna be a sleepy environment.
32:47
Georgia State's got a new head coach. So this is a put a clothespin on your nose type of special. But, uh, Georgia State was a small little play for me at plus 21. Just, I wanna know how Georgia Tech's gonna respond.
33:00
They ran the ball so well against Florida State. Uh, they limited the possession. So you're limiting the possessions. Are you able to, to cover a 21-point spread?
33:09
So, uh, gonna hold our nose on Saturday night and take the, the Panthers of Georgia State plus three touchdowns. Tim Murray, how tall are you? Six foot six. And you played college basketball, D...? Three.
33:22
That's Tyler Shoemaker, VSiN contributor. Look at that. Can you do that? Can you do that? Um, back in my day, Gil. Back in my day. [laughs] I think what Tim said is no longer. Thank you, Tim. Not anymore, man.
33:34
Appreciate it, man. Good, good to see you. Tim Murray, everybody. We'll come back and we'll look at everybody else's bets, the ones we like best, next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:52
Back at Bar Canada at the D, Downtown Las Vegas. This is a numbers game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. Gil Alexander and my friend Kelly Bidlack, ladies and gentlemen, producer number nine.
34:01
So much more than a producer. Hey, friend. [laughs] Hello, friend. Hey, friend-o. Hey, has anybody come up with that as a catchphrase? [laughs] Hello, friend. Maybe we should use that.
34:09
Uh, we get tweets at Beat Of The Book. Always appreciate the feedback. The best listeners in the game, telling you. Jason Stark.
34:16
Not that Jason Stark, not the national baseball writer, but a different Jason Stark writing about baseball says, "Interesting info for the stretch run. Twins to miss the playoffs plus 360.
34:25
Problem is it's the Red Sox who have the best chance to catch them." Oh, you beat me to it, Jason. "Remaining strength of schedule is basically the same. Thoughts?" Now, he adds in this a, uh, a tweet, uh, from Barstool.
34:36
The Twins, did you know this about the Twins? So the Twins now have dropped to the 11th best record in baseball.
34:41
The Braves actually took over the 10th spot, uh, when we talk about best record, which we'll flash up the stats later. But the Twins this year, 60 and 6...
34:49
12 and one against the White Sox, 60 and 60 against everybody else. Good on them. Take care of business, man. You're supposed to beat up on the bad teams. Yeah, but the point being- Right. [laughs]...
35:01
will they miss the playoffs plus 360? But you're right. You're right, Jason. The Red Sox is the problem, 'cause I don't know if you c- I don't know if we can trust the Red Sox there.
35:08
David Chalifour, "Week one of college football and still no Todd Wishnev. Old Southern football coach, #letsgo."
35:14
Oh, Todd Wishnev back with the Southern football coach coming up, I'm sure starting Tuesday with the Megapod, and if he's willing to come on the show.
35:21
The problem is Todd is holding out for, uh, you know, compensation for coming on the show or something. So, so he's a tough get, this guy. Mm. Uh, Nemesis Enforcer, "You just moved the market on, on the Orcutt's match.
35:32
I'm on Jordan Thompson. FanDuel suspended it as soon as you gave it out." That does happen with the tennis picks sometimes.
35:38
A bookmaker used to take it down when we would give them out as well for a brief period of time as well. Really? Yeah. Oh, okay. 'Cause it's tennis. Yeah. It's not, it's not like it's football. So...
35:46
Yeah, they, they just even see the smallest influx of cash and it's like, "Whoa, whoa, what's going on?" Well- "Before we reset"... like the...
35:52
I'm, I'm just thinking, like, the 2021 hardcore season, for instance, which was so ridiculously good, they took them all down as soon as we did it. Not quite as much these days, but certainly, uh, FanDuel reacted there.
36:02
JustToFollowVSiN, "So I'm driving around listening to AANG in broad daylight. LOL. [laughs] I'm adding th- I'm adding this to my daily vocab. The variation and actionable information from this show is unlimited."
36:15
Thank you. That's a very high compliment. Yeah. I appreciate that. That was a good one. That was a good one. I'm surprised you, you- Yeah... haven't brought that up before. Like- Broad daylight?
36:21
Like, they're playing tennis- Oh, yeah... today in broad daylight. Nobody says that, but something bad hap- Some, some stuff goes down, if you know what I mean. I guess we'll read the rest of the tweets later.
36:30
Okay, so, uh, NFL betting guide part deux. What are we calling it specifically again? Um, the- The updated one?... the updated guide. We have a special name for the updated guide. But anyway, it's out.
36:40
It's at vsyn.com/betting-guides. The Pro Edition update is what we're calling it, Kelly Bidlow. The Pro Edition update.
36:49
Um, post preseason updates on every team, players to watch, post best bets, week one betting systems. The best bets is what we wanna seize on today, not just necessarily the ones that you and I have.
36:59
'Cause by the way, the one that I have is a, I've s- you know, I've talked about it ad nauseam all summer long.
37:04
You don't need to hear me wax, uh, on about how I think the Steelers will go under, and that I have two alternate season win total under plays on the Steelers. You don't need to hear me go on about that.
37:14
By the way, Russell Wilson, good luck. Um- Yeah, we can, we can roll through them quick, though. Those are your- Oh, you want to? Okay. Those are your ones. All right. Well, here, here are the, here are yours.
37:22
Yours are up on the screen first. Oh, there's both of ours. Um- Yeah, and th- and these were more, these were more supposed to be ones we didn't have in the original guide, right, that we had added along the way.
37:31
So these are not all of our bets, but these are the ones- Correct... that we have in the guide anyway. Yes. Yeah. There are my Steelers alternate unders on the bottom, and then Kelly's Seahawks to make the playoffs.
37:38
Seahawks to make the playoffs, uh, as a wildcard seed. Where'd you get that one specifically, by the way? Uh, Caesars, I think. Okay.
37:45
Um- But that was one, like, shop around price, 'cause the pricer was shockingly different book to book.
37:49
Patriots most regular season losses, Patriots last winless team, Anthony [laughs] then one of these things is not like the other. Anthony Richardson MVP. Boy, are you gonna get the last laugh if that happens. Right.
38:01
Heard I, heard I caught some crap on Sharp Money, uh, yesterday for it. It's okay. It's okay, boys. We'll see. Patrick and, Patrick and Dustin were making fun of you? L- long season- I can't imagine that... man.
38:10
We haven't seen this kid play much. Let's see. [laughs] No, we haven't. And really, this is my betting strategy for the Colts. Like, I think the- Yeah... AFC South is, like, just a quick explanation on that.
38:18
I'm just aiming high on Colts. Like, I don't think they're really worth- Yeah... a win total over bet.
38:22
I think if they real- if we're really talking about them making the playoffs and being a double-digit win team, he's likely pa- a big part of that reason, and therefore could be, uh, easily in that conversation at the end of the year.
38:33
Okay. We hear you. Um, the task here is, all right, we got the new guide. We went through everybody else's bets, and the point of this is, which do we like the best?
38:45
Which of all of the other folks, and there's, what is it, like, 15 deep on Vsinho, something like that? Oh, yeah. Yeah. A lot of people. I mean, it's everybody's in there. Um, everybody's got their s- their plays.
38:54
Which do we like the best? And so I went through them. I know you have yours as well. Mm-hmm. I loved two of them.
39:00
Uh, one of them I've already kinda touched on on the show today, which is, um, I was talking about Trent Williams and the Niners, and how, you know, between him and Aiyuk, but specifically about Trent Williams.
39:08
This is getting a little dicey. Like, if Trent Williams is not playing, that's, by the way, that's another question. Jrod asked this on, on Twitter.
39:15
Uh, he's, he's like, "What do you think Trent Williams means to an actual line?" Now, we know that only quarterbacks generally move the betting line,
39:24
but, but intrinsically, what ought he mean to the line, is I guess what he's asking. Yeah. And I think it's a great question.
39:31
Um, but Matt Youmans went under on the Niners 11 and a half, minus 130, u- under 11 and a half season wins, minus 130, and I kinda like that, man. They won 12 games last year without all these problems. 12. Mm-hmm.
39:45
Expect them to get to 12 again. I mean, I love the Niners, you know I do. I, I think, I... And they may still win the Super Bowl, but it's a, it's a tough ask, and that opening game against the Jets, man, I don't know.
39:55
I also think that, I mean, the NFC West is d- I, in my opinion, it's definitely not gonna be easier than it was last year. Maybe it's not a whole lot tougher, but I think it's- Yeah...
40:05
I, I think it's a little bit tougher at least than it was last year.
40:08
The other one I really liked, and Will Hill said this on our show too, uh, you and I talked a lot about last winless, and how we don't wanna overthink it. We're like, "Patriots, man, I'm sorry."
40:18
Now, there was the Giants caveat where it's like, okay, but if the Giants lose to the Vikings opening day, maybe they're a sneaky last winless play. Mm-hmm. If not the Patriots, who are the rightful short shot.
40:30
What about last undefeated? Will Hill came on here and he included this in the guide, in the new updated guide. Last undefeated Jets 15 to one, and I think it's the same theory as the Giants last winless thing, right?
40:43
Which is, okay, the Jets have the Niners, right? Obviously opening Monday night. Okay. Yeah, you're right. They're dogs in that.
40:51
But if they win, if they win, just like we said about the Giants, if they, uh, happen to lose to the Vikings in the last winless, with the Jets, if they are able to beat the San Francisco 49ers, then you look at their schedule and you're like, "Oh boy," that 15 to one, that doesn't get chopped in half to me.
41:11
That gets just absolutely chopped down to a stub. Because after that, it's at Tennessee, home New England, home Denver, at Minnesota, home Buffalo, at Pittsburgh, at New England,
41:24
and we're already at Halloween at that point. So I kinda like that one as my second one.
41:29
So Youmans under the Niners win total 11 and a half for all of the chaos going on, and I really like Will Hill's last undefeated on the Jets at 15 to one. Yeah, we'll ta- uh, yeah, we're gonna talk.
41:41
Jrod, we're gonna talk that market tomorrow, I promise. Uh, they were, they were one of the teams I wrote down, though. They were, like, my third or fourth favorite in that market- Yeah... for last time. Oh, me too.
41:49
But I'm saying that when I looked through them, I'm like, "Oh, you know what? That might even be worth a bet." Yeah, he might've talked me into it. What do you got? I like that we landed on different ones. All right.
41:57
I wrote down a few I liked. Um, Wes Reynolds, Buccaneers to finish last in NFC South. Bold. Bold.
42:03
I kinda like it though, 'cause I, I do think that there's Atlanta, and then it's probably New Orleans, and I think Tampa Bay and, uh, Carolina could be battling it out at the bottom.
42:13
I, uh, the, the only one of, of course, we hate when we say this, but five to one, thought that would be a little bit longer- Yeah... amongst the finished at lasts, but. I wanted it a little sexier than that.
42:21
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, but I still like it. I, it's not one I really thought about. And I, I think that's how I kind of approached this, like what are the bets that I didn't really think about all that much.
42:29
Um, Paul Howard, I like what he did with the Patriots, essentially the same thing I did with the Bears, where he went alt high and then played it under.
42:36
Um, you know, there's a lot of Patriots love in the, uh, unders love in the guide. I understand it, me and you are both on 'em, Gil. Um, I've betted a lot of different ways.
42:45
This is probably the safest way though, if you want, if you wanted to be a, a, a little more careful with it. Um, Stormy, I thought she had good, uh, good bets, lowest scoring team, Patriots and Giants.
42:54
I almost put these on, but I didn't. Yeah. Yep, yep. Um, I think even, you know, going to combine those, 'cause I think those would probably be the first two we would mention.
43:00
Um, Steelers may, you know, [laughs] the two of us would probably throw in there as well. But like those.
43:05
And then Matt Brown, Jared Smith, both with Chargers under plays, which I kinda mentioned earlier, I'm like kinda surprised I haven't added yet. Matt Brown, Jared Smith, Chargers under eight and a half.
43:12
The only reason I didn't include that is 'cause I thought we, we sort of agree with that and talked about it a lot. We have, yeah. So I, yeah, so I didn't.
43:18
Um, and then special shout-out though too, you know, if we wanna go the other way, I did this last week. Oh. Joe Serollo. Yes. Over on the Steelers. Yes.
43:26
[laughs] Big applause, 'cause there's a lot of under love for the Steelers. I just like to see something different. I agree. And then Steve Mackinnon over on the New England Patriots, so. Oh, I caught that as well. Yes.
43:36
At least, uh, so we got some zagging where everybody else is zigging, uh, in the guide. It's interesting to see what everybody has. Mm-hmm.
43:43
And Joe's and, and Steve's reasoning for his over on the Patriots has a lot to do with Mackinnon stuff- Right, yep... trends and that kind of historical analysis.
43:51
And Joe's, uh, on the over on the Steelers has a lot to do with he's not, he's not bucket Mike Tomlin. Mm-hmm. He just refuses, so people have their reasons. Which has happened to this, been me multiple years in a row.
44:02
Like, it's hard for me to sit here and argue it. Check it out, vsin.com/betting-guide. Do I have that right? Betting-guide. [laughs] Anybody else notice how Gil just launches into this?
44:14
He can back me, he can back me up with a promo maybe on the screen so I can confirm that, ladies and gentlemen. I just wanna, I wanna send people right to the right spot. I know. Oh.
44:20
Uh, there it is, betting sl- Oh, no, betting-guides, plural. There you go. Vsin.com/betting-guides. Crack Man unscripted next. Numbers Game.
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