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Aug 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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1:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
1:10
This is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com game. Plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. We appreciate you taking us in however
1:21
you do, through any one of those methods. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey. Hey.
1:26
You think, you think, you think DoDo's trying to fix my posture, or do I just keep getting, uh, tall people sitting in this chair? Oh, is that what's happening? Yeah, I think it's, I think it's tall people. I'm short.
1:35
Man, you, you, you look great, man. So everybody comes by, I'm like, "Okay." So can I just kind of hover like this for the first segment? I'll do that. [laughs] You know the most... Who's the most...
1:42
Here's a trivia question: Who's the most unsettling person, uh, VSiN hosts to sit in that when you have to interview them, 'cause their posture is so unbelievable? Oh, I don't know. Who- Mike Somich, perfect posture.
1:53
So- Somich, yeah, that's a good call... perfect posture. You think that's a perfect posture thing or, like, a back issue thing that, like, he had to adjust his posture? I think he's trying to send a message.
2:00
I think he's trying to intimidate. I think... No, I think he is, too. Yeah. I think he is, too. Think that's what he's doing. Uh, packed Friday show.
2:05
Paul Carr moving the chains, and when I say moving the chains, two and one two weeks ago to start the Premier League season, two and one last week. Or was the Premier League last week?
2:14
I, I don't even remember, but it's two two and ones in a row. Pre- Prem and Prem. Prem and Prem. Yeah. Oh, man, I forgot to update the, the, the record. Man.
2:20
Uh, we'll take a two and one from him every week- Yeah, yeah... on his three-pack of, uh, soccer plays. We got Prem ticket, uh, Prem picks from him coming up this hour. And it is Friday.
2:27
That means Falica and Fezzik, but because we've added a third hour, we gotta... It's a little bit of a spread out now. Falica gets the top of hour number two. Fezzik gets the top of hour number three. Dr.
2:37
Bob is usually the third part of this, but we had him earlier in the week, and he's like, "Yeah, I'll see y'all next week. I got a wedding to go to," was the exact quote I got from him. I do like the- Cool, fine.
2:47
Pick a wedding over us. That's fine... uh, I do like the guest planning by me and you sometimes. We're like, it was yesterday me and Gil were sitting right after the show.
2:53
We're like, "Did Bob say something about not being on Friday? I think he did." [laughs] "Hey, Bob, we'll see you Friday, right?" He's like, "See you guys."
2:58
[laughs] Uh- Yeah, he definitely said on Tuesday, "See you next week." Yeah. And I was like, "All right."
3:03
Uh, Falica, though, with all his college football thoughts as he heads into a, uh, a big noon kickoff at Fox Sports with Texas and Ohio State.
3:11
But I really do wonder if just this one time he'd rather be back at ESPN for Lee Corso's finale, uh, 'cause I know Lee meant so much to him and means so much to him.
3:21
Uh, and so we'll talk to Chris about that and, of course, all of his picks in college football and beyond.
3:25
Uh, and then Fezzik, a whole bunch of stuff on Fezzik Friday, everything that's on his mind in the sports betting world, and there is a lot on his mind. AFC South, we'll get to that as well on the show.
3:35
And how about some September wins in Major League Baseball? Yeah. We'll do that, uh, here in about 15 minutes. Um, tennis plays coming up momentarily, but first- Who's, uh...
3:43
Do, did you catch anybody else besides Caesars with them posted yesterday? Yeah, Circa, right behind you, buddy. Oh, wow. Schlup. They had them up already. Yeah, just turn around. They're there. Okay.
3:52
Um- Made a b- made my bet this morning. Oh, you did? Made my bet. Nice. Also made my bed. Didn't do... That sounded like I said I made my bed. I didn't make my bed. Yeah, [laughs] that's what that sounded like.
4:02
That's a lie. Uh, but I made my bet. That's a lie. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, te- okay, tennis picks coming up.
4:06
Another, uh, nice winning day at, uh, the US Open yesterday with, uh, two more dogs hitting, plus 175 and a plus 178. We'll get to that, but we gotta start with Micah Parsons here.
4:15
The, the thing that I don't know that we really thought would happen, you know, with, uh, McLaurin got signed by Washington. Hendrickson got signed by Cincinnati.
4:25
They worked it out however they worked out, but Hayward just decided, "Okay, I'll play for you Steelers."
4:29
And the only one looming was Micah Parsons in Dallas, which we said many times here seemed a little more contentious than all of them, and that was saying something, 'cause it certainly wasn't pleasant in the other situations.
4:39
But the result ends up being that Jerry Jones has decided to trade Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers, as I'm sure you know by now.
4:48
Cowboys receive a 2026 and 2027 first-round pick, so two first-rounders, and defensive tackle Kenny Clark, a Pro Bowler himself, but who's not a youngster, right? Been in the league for 10 years.
5:00
And with that, by the way, Parsons, 188 milli over four years, 136 of which are guaranteed. It's like Kelly's contract here at VSiN, similar guarantees. I cannot ima- If we got paid that way, oh, boy. Oh, boy.
5:16
Well, I was just telling you off-air, at, at KBL in the '90s we once... Oh, we came one number away collectively as a station from hitting the first Powerball that was over $100 million. Yeah.
5:24
And we said, "Oh my God, if we had won this, half, half the people would've left, half would've stuck around and just been horrible humans. It would've cr- it would've destroyed the station." Anyway.
5:31
It's just you can't do this everywhere in corporate America. [laughs] 'Cause I just want like the... You would not incentivize me to work hard, you know? Oh, I, I think Mike is incentivized.
5:39
Uh, here's how the odds moved on the news.
5:41
Packers to win the NFC North goes from two to one to plus 165, to win the NFC from nine to one to six to one, to win the Super Bowl from 19 to one to 12 to one, and for Jordan Love to win MVP from 25 to one to 20 to one.
5:55
How about that? Cowboys other direction. Before the trade, plus 650 to win the NFC East, now they're eight to one.
6:02
Cowboys to win the NFC from 25 to one to 30 to one, and Cowboys to win the Super Bowl from 55 to one to 70 to one. Kelly and I We, uh, went too quickly on our NFC power rankings. Yeah. Yesterday we did them.
6:14
I had the, uh, Packers fifth and I had the Cowboys 10th. Guess what they are today? Third and 14th. Yep, sounds about right.
6:23
I have only the Eagles and Lions better than the Packers now, and the Cowboys drift all the way down where only New Orleans and Carolina are worse. Seriously.
6:35
Cowboys, are they, are the proverbial over team this year, the Cowboys? All offense, no defense? Oh, I have m- I have made a list of those teams to go over later. Yeah.
6:44
That is my single biggest takeaway from all of our off-season NFL prep, of h- the ridiculous amount of teams- Bengals, Cowboys... th- that have, that have average to above average offenses, Gil- Yeah...
6:57
that their defenses are then below average to terrible. Yeah. And it will take weeks before I c- even consider any of those teams in an under.
7:07
Well, here's what Cowboys great Michael Irvin, Hall of Famer, had to say about the Micah Parsons trade on his podcast. I know he, he loved Michael Parsons. So in order for us to be right here,
7:24
something had to go down that hurt Jerry personally to make this crazy, dumb move.
7:42
The Gambler and his Cowboys is the series that is out right now. This is a gamble The Gambler should not have taken. Wow. Wow.
8:00
Cowboys great Michael Irvin, who was just on ESPN yesterday promoting that m- uh, series, saying there's no chance that Jerry Jones will trade Michael Parsons, and then that happened. Wild to him. Wild.
8:12
Um, my initial reaction, and I think my, my, my biggest conviction on this is you cannot trade a generational player like this before his prime. Right?
8:23
The only player besides Reggie White to go four straight seasons with 12 sacks in each of those seasons. Um, multiple Pro Bowler after being Rookie of the Year. Game changer. You cannot trade a, a player like this and
8:42
justify it to me. But let me give the other side of it, just for, for argument's sake. Sure. The other side of it is- There's no other side...
8:51
the other side of it is, and I got this from a couple Cowboys fans, and this could fall under the category of are they being serious or are they trying to cope?
9:01
And the argument ag- and the argument for this is, well, what if you determined that you are not a, anywhere close to being a Super Bowl team, not anywhere close to being a Super Bowl team,
9:12
and you just have to say to yourself, "Well, if we're not close to being a Super Bowl team, are we really gonna allocate $47 million a year to make Micah Parsons the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of the NFL?"
9:24
Which is what the Packers ended up doing with him.
9:27
And so if you take that position, this is actually a very responsible move by the Cowboys because they got two first round picks out of it, albeit probably later in the first round, and they get a Pro Bowler in Kenny Clark to boot.
9:43
And this may allow them now to tank for Arch, right, in the process as well. Mm-hmm. That's the other side of the argument.
9:52
See, but that, that one doesn't- I, here's my, here, here's my counter to that counter before you chime in. Yeah.
9:55
My counter to that counter is even if you believe that, do you really believe Jerry Jones did that out of being a rational mind or because his ego got hurt and he just happened to fall into that argument?
10:07
Uh, it's, it's also, sorry, BS because the timing. You woulda done this before the draft- Before the draft... earlier in the sea- uh, earlier in the off-season- Yep...
10:16
when you would've had more suitors and could've gotten more back for Micah Parsons. Yep. And I do think you could've, they could've gotten more back.
10:22
I, this is, it's not a complete unfair when you just look ba- uh, look at what they got back. Like, there are some Cowboys... The Cowboys fans can justify, "Hey, we've got something to, to look forward to in the future.
10:33
We didn't get completely fleeced." But this could've and should've been better if you were actually gonna trade Micah Parsons. It, it wasn't Luka Dončić bad, speaking of which. Right. Dallas, great summer, huh?
10:42
Yeah, God bless. Great summer you're having. Luka Dončić gone, Micah Parsons gone. Two crown jewels of your professional team athletes.
10:51
Uh, Luka, they got, you know, arguably less for, but Micah, I agree with you, probably could'a, probably could'a gotten more. Yeah.
10:58
But I do, I, you know, even if you were to lean into the Cowboys fan coping argument of this, and like, well, actually, you know, maybe...
11:06
'Cause I said it about Washington and I was trying to be rational about the McLaurin thing, like, yeah, but we, you want your GM to GM.
11:11
And maybe this is the first time that [laughs] they took the position that Jerry Jones actually did something as a GM. My counter is, yeah, 'cause his ego got hurt somewhere along the line.
11:20
As Michael Irvin said, he must have got hurt personally, and d- let's not act like he did this 'cause he wanted to. He fell into this, if that's your position. Oh, come on, Gil.
11:30
You clearly didn't see Jerry Jones presser then yesterday. [laughs] The, him and Stephen said at least 97 times that we need to focus on stopping the run, okay? Not, uh, one pass rusher- Oh, God, how many times...
11:41
we gotta stop, we gotta focus on stopping the run. Uh, Jerry did drop in there the team might be better. Oh, stop it. So we're, yeah, that was said. Just stop it.
11:50
And, um, both him and, both Jerry and Stephen both, uh, both said don't rule them, uh, don't rule out them making a big trade at some point this off-season. Oh, that's exciting.
12:00
Dude, you already made your big trade and you lost the crown jewel of your, of your franchise. Jerry's getting up there. Some of that was a little- You cannot trade this, dude. I don't care what anybody tells me.
12:08
You can't. You can't. You can't. He can't What, what did I text you yesterday? Like, you can't draft someone perfectly, a, a can't-miss prospect. Yes. And guess what?
12:16
You didn't miss, he was awesome, and then four years in- You messed it up... sorry, see ya. So bad. And then to someone in the conference. So bad. Again, another highlight from the counterargument.
12:30
Well, if you can't get it to third down on defense, might as well get rid of him. Yeah. You stink on first and second down, and he can't really show his talents on third. Stop it. Just stop it.
12:41
Tennis picks and MLB most wins in September, next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:47
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13:33
That's promo code VSIN250. We got tweets. Gelly Biddlin', I'm not sure if you're aware of that. Hell. @BeatingTheBook, "J-Rod, a few potty mouths today, and Paul Carr," he says- Damn... on the show. Um,
13:47
Mariners Geek, BaseballGeek72, "Gents, may I recommend an adjustment to your normal exercise when discussing NFL teams before next week? How about sabemos, sabemos realmente quienes son?" Do we really know who they are?
14:00
Yeah, it's not a bad idea. That's what Are We Sure is about. Trying to do the Espanol translation. Brad Magnus, "Yo, do you know what Parsons' Defensive Player of the Year odds did yesterday? Go Pack go."
14:10
What did they do? Defense Player of the Year. Only a small drop, right? Like a- A small move... like a tick. Yeah. I didn't even, I didn't even go back.
14:17
I actually thought, I thought the Jordan Love MVP movement was, was what... well, it was more significant both in number and I think, I actually think matters more. Yeah. Like, right? Like, at, Parsons is six to one.
14:28
He was in that range, but he might've been plus 650, something like that. I, I do think Hutchinson, Garrett, and Watt, though, they priced back a bit further than where they were at, where they were at.
14:38
Hutchinson plus 750, Myles Garrett plus 850, T.J. Watt plus 950. Thank you, sir. The Unders Club. You guys ever think about switching chairs?
14:45
[laughs] Yeah, it's been a while since- I cannot, I cannot believe that still bothers people Some, someone said that, huh? Prime Time. Oh, Prime Time, how you feeling today? Cowboys_CubsWal, he says, "Yo."
14:55
Hey, man, I'm sorry. "So I says to fellow Cowboys [laughs] fans yesterday, I says, 'I can't stand narcissistic, egomaniacal billionaires who ramble nonsensical stuff, think they're smarter, the smartest guy in the room.
15:06
Thank you for your attention to this matter.'" He's not taking it well. But that was very brave of him to come on and at least talk like that. Dude, Jerry was... Ca- I'm like, I'm like, let's get real for a minute.
15:17
This summer's been tough for me, okay? I thought I was gonna get Jameis Winston starting a game this year. I thought I was gonna get Anthony Richardson starting a game this year. Nope, we're gonna have no fun.
15:26
The no fun league hits. Mm-hmm. Those guys get- You love both of them... relegated. Yeah. Thought Keegan Bradley was gonna be a playing captain for the Ryder Cup. No.
15:33
Nope, too good guy, let's be boring, let's make the good guy move. Jerry Jones always keeps things exciting, Gil.
15:39
[laughs] Just when we thought this summer we were gonna finally roll into week one with nothing else that could be done, Jerry Jones keeps it exciting and then goes and holds a one-hour-plus press conference where he repeats over and over again, "We've gotta stop the run.
15:53
We've gotta stop the run." [laughs] That man is, he's just a national treasure. Ah, Jerry. National treasure. Jerry is someone who lived under the Daniel Snyder regime for a quarter of a century. Cowboys fans,
16:05
ball's in your court now. Dude, and then- It's ours... and then it's, like, some of the things that I know people have complained about forever, but, like, he still drops. Like, it's 1995.
16:14
Like, he had an opportunity to be a part of the Dallas Cowboys. Like, you know, it says it in, like, the, you know, that, that logo and that name should be m- mean more than anything else.
16:25
And you're like, "Dude, it's 2025, man." Bro, Jimmy Johnson did it all for them. Jimmy Johnson came from college. He knew where the great college players was.
16:31
He drafted amazingly, the Herschel Walker trade i- included in that. They won. Barry Switzer got a drift Super Bowl from that. They never done anything since. That's wild.
16:41
Eric Gillan, "As a longtime Mavericks and lifelong Cowboys fan, this year has been a blanking," by the way, the blanking begins with an F, should point that out- [laughs]...
16:49
"kick in the, in the balls, causing me to the, to, to, to for the first time question my loyalties and fandom." Brian Schaefer31, "There is no justification for trading Parsons." I'm with you, Brian.
17:00
"They could have gotten more for Parsons from other teams. Giants give Jones the money over Saquon. Commanders are the oldest team now, and now this. Eagles just get better every day."
17:11
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, everything you said about the Cowboys saga is true, but it's nice to see Jerry not just cave for once." Yeah, I don't read it that way. Yeah. Yeah.
17:19
And I would also, I'll push back on the other one real quick too.
17:21
I, I mean, I think this, from what I've seen in the past, I mean, past season, and then even just the past month, all three other teams in the NFC East are on the rise- Yeah... and the Cowboys are on the fall.
17:33
I mean, this is... I texted you this yesterday. A month ago, a month ago, I would... If you, if I could have sold you 2028 futures on the Giants or the Cowboys, I would have been buying Cowboys over Giants still. Yeah.
17:44
No. After a Jaxson Dart preseason, then Micah, see you later. Giants look a whole lot better now with their future. I think you f- if you are a Cowboys fan, you should probably be thinking, "Well, tank it up."
17:55
If, if Arch is everything that people who love Arch think he is, you got one more year of Dak Prescott after this year, and after that you can kind of release him with not much of a cap hit.
18:07
One year of Dak mentoring, and there you go. Mm-hmm. That's probably how you look at it at this point. If you think that's the price. Uh, let's talk tennis for one more minute here because we have tennis plays.
18:17
Yesterday, another winning day at the US Open, a three and two. But again, with these tennis plays, um, it's not just a three and two, two more big dogs hit a plus 175 and a plus 178.
18:29
Kelly, do we have the list of all the, uh... This is, this is not a full list of plays since July the 11th, um, but this is a sampling.
18:38
It's been s- since the f- the only two matches here, or the very first two, were grass season. Everything else is hard courts. Uh, but these are a sampling of the dogs that have been hit since July 10th.
18:50
Plus 211, plus 220, another plus 220, a plus 262, a plus 194, a plus 335, plus 271, plus 233, plus 276, plus 200, plus 206, plus 230, and then yesterday, a plus 178 and a plus 175.
19:04
17 units to the positive since the very tail end of grass season. I hope everybody has been a part of this. All of this, if not on the show, is at vsyn.com/picks for subscribers. We got two more plays today.
19:17
No sexy dogs today, though. Uh, we are in round three. Only landed on two plays today, Kelly. A lot of big favorites today. But the two plays that I do have, I have in, uh, both on the ladies' side.
19:28
One is a total, one is a side. I am on the over in the Emma Raducanu-Elena Rybakina match. Ooh, that's a good one. Over 22 games. I think this is gonna be a, this is gonna be a tremendous tennis match.
19:42
Uh, is this best match of the tournament so far? Yes. Best match of the tournament so far. Raducanu, who of course won this as a quali. Was that 2021, I believe that was? I always get the years mixed up.
19:52
Oh, it's that long ago? God, it's amazing. Oh, boy, it's gonna make me feel old. Her first US Open match victory since then was this tournament.
19:59
Uh, Raducanu, who's been playing so well of late, against Elena Rybakina, who's, quite frankly, whose numbers are a tick better than Raducanu's on hard courts. But I expect this to be a long tennis match.
20:09
I think it goes three sets. Over 22, Raducanu versus Rybakina. And then the only side, also on the ladies' side, your girl, Kelly. Yeah. Tat 'em up.
20:17
Marketa Vondrousova, who has maybe the worst tattoos I've ever seen on any human being ever. Love the tats. Minus 105 versus the adorable, the lovable Jasmine Paolini. But Vondrousova's numbers are just better.
20:30
Adorable, lovable? You've been fading the crap out of P- Paolini, haven't you? I mean, but she, but have you ever seen her in an interview after a match? Yeah, she's- Oh, she's-... she, she's very sweet... adorable.
20:37
Yeah, she's very sweet. She's so sweet. But I'm fading her. I'm taking Vondrousova. Her numbers are better than Paolini's on hard courts, and as steely and as likable as Paolini is, it's, uh, it's fade time.
20:47
So over 22, Raducanu-Rybakina, and then Vondrousova minus 105 versus Jasmine Paolini. Uh, to baseball. September MLB wins. Now, let me just give you the history on this. These started last year.
20:59
Came out of the box firing last year again. Oh, f- by the way, here's your August update. Still Brewers clinch a dead heat, but they haven't clinched it outright yet.
21:07
Three games left, three win lead over both the Red Sox and Phillies. By the way, you see Schwarber yesterday? Four home runs. Padres dead? What's that? Padres are dead? Padres dead. Dang it. They lost yesterday. Dead.
21:17
Yeah, four home runs. Real quick, uh, real- Schwarber goes to the leader- Yeah... in most regular season home runs, minus 110 to Cal Raleigh's plus 110. [laughs] I would've loved to see what that market was yesterday.
21:28
Four homers. Again, one of the rarest feats in the history of Major League Baseball is, is a four home run game. Yeah, becomes the 21st person ever. Isn't that the second one this year, right? Yeah, uh, Eugenio Suarez.
21:40
Yeah. Which I heard that this morning. I completely forgot about that. Yeah. No, I remember that.
21:44
Um, and by the way, just as a, uh, as a reminder in terms of the, uh, the home run lead right now, Raleigh has 50, Schwarber has 49. Ohtani down to 45. Anyway, here's your Aug- So you saw the August.
21:57
So September, uh, last year again, an out away from hitting a 65 to one in March, April. One game out in May last year, and then we hit the 25 to one and a 17 to one, 'cause I bet it at two shops, on the Astros in June.
22:10
Since then, the last three months of last year and the first five of this year, crapola. Here's September. These are the, the games that each of these franchises have.
22:20
You see the Guardians play the most games, meaning the most opportunities to get wins. 27 of them. But I don't think they're very good, and by the way, I don't think the teams with 26 are that good either.
22:30
Rays, Angels, Twins, Nationals. There's only two teams I considered here. Can we throw that graphic up on the board?
22:38
The two teams I considered here are in the 25 group, and that's the Padres and the Cubs, and they are among the short shots. In fact, the Padres at Circa, plus 725, the Cubs at Circa, plus 925.
22:51
The Padres have the easiest remaining schedule a- as of this moment. I believe they will have the easiest schedule headed into the month. Cubs have the second easiest schedule as of this moment.
23:01
Padres have a pretty stark home-road split.
23:03
They get 16 at home, though, in September, only nine on the road, so that's favorable, and they don't play anybody besides the Brewers and the Mets, really, with apologies to the Reds.
23:12
But the key there, seven against the Rockies and three against the White Sox. Cubs also play more at home, 15 to 10, than they do on the road. But
23:22
they don't have those seven against the Rockies or those three against the White Sox. Kelly, I made the bet this morning. Padres plus 725.
23:29
It's not that sexy, but I'm going with just the straightforward play in the month of September for most wins. San Diego Padres plus 725.
23:36
By the way, at William Hill Caesars, it's already, like, plus 550, so that's a favorable price. Yeah. And I don't have to deal with the dead heat at Circa. Right, right. Fire away, people. Fire away.
23:45
Paul Carr moving the chains. Prem next on a Numbers Game at VSEN. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSEN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
23:59
Gil Alexander and my little buddy Kelly Bittling, everybody. Hey. Losing weight before our very eyes. What's the s- what's the number? 227. Oh, I got, I got it out aggressively...
24:11
go, like extend my lead, 'cause otherwise you're gonna pass me. It was like 226 and a half this morning actually, but I'm gonna round up, 227. [laughs] So I was on the bike for a whi- Oh no... for a while yesterday.
24:20
He's gaining on me. By the way, I, I just wanna bring up the Schwarber thing again, 'cause Kyle Schwarber hits four home runs in a game yesterday. By the way, had an at bat for a fifth. Yeah.
24:30
Had an at bat for a fifth against a position player. Popped him up. Oh, really? Yes. I missed that part. The, uh- Popped him up...
24:36
dude, there was so much going on yesterday, I don't know if y- when you caught it, but I didn't catch it until he hit the fourth one and then it was final- it was finally like the breaking news on the ticker of ESPN.
24:45
It was like, oh. [laughs] I was- I wish we could turn that game on. It's really true. I was watching so much tennis that, like, the rest of the world- That was- I-... college football and tennis on...
24:52
I watched college football. I only made one college football bet. Boise State looked so bad, like in the first quarter- Oh, gross... I bet an under on that game, and that got home. I, under 52 in game.
25:01
Uh, that was pretty easy. And then, uh, then the Schwarber thing while I was watching tennis. So this has happened now four home runs in a game by one player, it's happened 21 times. We, we short change it.
25:13
Three times this year, it was onl- it was not only Eugenio Suarez in April, but Nick- Kurtz... Kurtz of the Athletics hit four in massive fashion in a game, what was it a month or two ago? A month ago now.
25:27
Wasn't that long ago. Yeah. Yeah.
25:28
So we've had three of the 21 this year, and if you look at, like, what are the rarest feats in Major League Baseball, again, this has nothing to do with betting, but, uh, I'm fascinated by stuff like this.
25:37
The four home run game is, like, the sixth most rare thing. Uh, you know what's rarer than that? Stealing second, third, and home in one appearance. Um, hitting for the cycle. Triple crown.
25:54
P- Unassisted triple play in a 20 strikeout game. I think the 20 strikeout game is still the most rare thing. I mean, there's so many things that are rare, but that, it's among the rarest thing in baseball. Yeah.
26:03
Well, I mean, more rarer than a perfect game. Yes. Right? Yes. There's another one here. Shortstop doesn't touch the ball the whole game is a very rare thing apparently.
26:16
The ama- I mean immaculate inning is a, is a rare thing as well, but we've seen those. Sure. But, but this is one of the rarest things and one of the top 10 rarest things in baseball.
26:23
Shortstop doesn't touch [laughs] Yeah. I've never heard that one brought up before. Didn't, didn't see that on a list. But okay, yeah. [laughs] Didn't see that on a list before. Uh, let's talk some Premier League soccer.
26:30
Uh, moving the chains, two and one a couple weeks ago, two and one last week. That's just what he does. It's Paul Carr, everybody, from True Media Networks and The Ringer Soccer Gambling Podcast. How you doing, Paul?
26:42
I'm good. Yeah, two and one. Just grinding 'em out. This is what we do, so we're gonna look to do it again. It's what we do. Now, uh, Champions League, did they have a draw, Champions League? They did. We used to- Yeah.
26:52
That's- This used to be steeped in controversy, right? Yeah.
26:55
It used to, used to matter more because they would draw you in 18, or eight groups of four teams each, so it mattered a little more 'cause only the top two got out.
27:02
But now they just have one table of all the teams, all 36 teams, and the top 24 advance one way or the other. And so there's a draw to see who plays whom, but it's not as interesting.
27:15
You know, everyone's gonna get a couple good match ups, couple medium match ups, and so on down.
27:19
So, you know, Tottenham, for example, got a pretty decent draw yesterday, but, you know, is that gonna make a difference as far as them advancing or not? I mean, I mean, yes, of course, but not really.
27:29
And so you didn't see the title odds shift all that much as a result of this.
27:32
Uh, Paul, Paul texted me, full disclosure, he texted me, uh, you know, he's gonna have his standard three picks, but he goes, "We could also talk about what we just talked about, right?
27:40
The, the Championship League draw." Uh, he said, "You know, it, it's not as important as it used to be since all the teams are in the big table," w- what he just said, and then he goes, "But it's something."
27:49
[laughs] It's something. [laughs] There was definitely a draw. In the world of soccer. It definitely happened. But it, but it's something. So we figured- Right... we'd talk about it for a minute. Yeah.
27:57
Yeah, we like- Yeah. That's a very lukewarm, uh, uh, sort of, uh, pumping up with your segment content. It's something. Uh, here's something. It's something. Here's your picks. Uh- All right...
28:06
one on Saturday, two on Sunday. Let's start with Saturday in the Premier League. All right. We're going over on Saturday in Leeds, Newcastle. Over two and a half, minus 125.
28:15
Uh, Newcastle opened with a scoreless draw against Villa, then lost 3-2 to Liverpool last week. Uh, Leeds beat Everton. Leeds is newly promoted. They're back in the Premier League after a year or two absence.
28:24
Uh, looked pretty good against Everton, and then got smoked five nil by Arsenal, and that's kind of a welcome back to the Premier League game. Uh, and Newcastle is somewhere between those two Leeds opponents.
28:33
They're better than Everton. They're not as good as Arsenal. They are missing several attackers, but I still think this game is going to be open, because I think Leeds will go for it. They're at home.
28:41
They're gonna see this as a big opportunity to get three points against a, you know, one of the top six-ish teams in the league, and that will open things up a little bit for Newcastle, uh, to hit them on the counter again, even without some attackers.
28:52
So I think we get goals here one way or another, minus 125, pretty good price, uh, because Newcastle's missing several of their top players. Leeds, Newcastle, over two and a half goals on Saturday.
29:02
And then a couple unders on Sunday. Yeah. We'll go your old root against human achievement here. I like it. Uh, let's see. Nottingham Forest, West Ham, under two and a half, minus 120.
29:12
So Nottingham Forest is going to let West Ham have the ball, because that's what Nottingham Forest does. I don't think West Ham knows what to do with it. [laughs] They [laughs] I mean- The analysis is fantastic.
29:24
[laughs] Yeah. I'm not sure they... It's, uh, what's the old Mel Kiper? It was, I forget which team it was about, but this team doesn't know what the draft is for. The Colts. Something to that effect. Bill, Bill Polian.
29:32
Yeah, Colts. That's it. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Yeah. So it's kind of a similar thing. West Ham has one goal in two games. Uh, second worst team in attack from an underlying numbers perspective.
29:40
And since they brought in a new manager, Graham Potter, who's bounced around the Premier League a little bit, they brought him in in January, and they have the fewest points in the league since then. That's not great.
29:49
Uh, and Forest is very happy to win games one-nil. You know, they try to score first and then just buckle in and shut the other team out. Their games have the second fewest shots through a couple so far.
29:58
So, you know, this is just gonna be Forest is fine scoring a goal and doing nothing, and West Ham's not very good at doing much of anything so far. So minus 120, under two and a half. Okay.
30:08
Minus 120 and under two and a half. This under is, uh, in plus money Yeah, this is the big game of the weekend. Should be fun, even though I'm taking the under. Uh, Liverpool-Arsenal, under two and a half.
30:18
I got this at plus 105. I saw some plus 110s out there this morning. Uh, so Arsenal is missing Bukayo Saka, who's their best attacker, and the guy in which they funnel everything on the right side. He's out.
30:30
He's injured. Uh, Martin Odegaard is questionable in the midfield, so they may go a little more defensive.
30:35
And they'll probably be on the back foot a little more than usual just because Mo Salah's gonna be rampaging down the right. They gotta figure out how to slow him down. Uh, and Liverpool has looked good on paper.
30:44
They had three goals against Newcastle last weekend, but they only had five shots. So this is,
30:50
right now, reminded me a little bit of Liverpool early last season, when they were kind of, uh, very much an under team while they were still, you know, adapting.
30:58
They're just playing differently than they had under a new manager. So I, I think we're gonna see that again. This feels like a classic early season showdown. These are the two title favorites.
31:07
You know, feel each other out, be kind of a cagey game.
31:10
When they met last October, it was pretty uneventful from a scoring opportunity standpoint, even though it ended 2-2, but only 18 shots, one and a half or so expected goals.
31:20
So I think this is just gonna be a, a little bit cagey. You know, 1-1 draw would be pretty happy for Arsenal if they could, uh, s- snatch a goal and pull one out there.
31:29
But I think under two and a half plus 105 are a little better. Easy, or I should say early season, I should say, marquee matchup between Liverpool and Arsenal. Big one.
31:36
So it's, so it's Leeds-Newcastle over two and a half goals on Saturday, and on Sunday, two unders, Nottingham Forest-West Ham under two and a half goals, Liverpool-Arsenal under two and a half goals.
31:46
By the way, here was Bill Polian's response to Mel Kiper back in the day, since you bring it up. "Who in the hell is Mel Kiper anyway?" Yeah. [laughs] I mean- Well, West Ham, West Ham could say that about me, too.
31:55
[laughs] I mean, here's a guy who criticizes everybody. Whoever they take, he's got the answers to who you should take and who you shouldn't. My, my knowledge of him- Oh, man... he's never put on a jockstrap.
32:04
He's never been a coach. He's never been a scout. He's never been an administrator, and all of a sudden he's an expert? We don't have to take anyone that Mel Kiper says we have to take.
32:10
Mel Kiper has no more credentials to do what he's doing than the, than my neighbor, and he's a postman. Ah. And he doesn't even have season tickets. That's beautiful. Doesn't even have season tickets.
32:18
He's, and he's a postman. Yeah. [laughs] That was need- to- That's funny. Why you gotta throw a postman under the bus? I don't know. Yeah, he's just standing there. Just catching strays. All right. Yeah.
32:26
Uh, that's a good segue into the, our football, our domestic football, the National Football League, American football, if you will. You are a Miami Dolphins fan. I know I've asked you this- Yeah...
32:36
earlier in the summer, but I give you one more chance now right before the season starts. This is one of these teams, the Dolphins, where Kelly and I were throwing this around.
32:43
Like, what i- just the incoming opinions we've gotten, what have been the most widespread viewpoints? I think you said, Kelly, Minnesota, the Vikings probably have the most widespread f- good to bad.
32:54
From what I've heard, yeah. The Dolphins are up there, too. You're a fan. Where do you stand on them this year?
32:59
Uh, look, it's before the season, so I'm trying to be as optimistic as possible, because if not now, then when? But on the whole, I'm a little bit down. Um, you know, they lost a lot of their best defensive players.
33:10
They, on the, on the bright side, they brought in offensive linemen because their O-line was terrible, but those still, those guys still have to do something.
33:17
And there's always just the health issue, obviously, hanging over Tua. Uh, A-Han's been a little bit banged up already. Tyreek Hill's coming back from injury.
33:25
And they've shown the past couple years when one or two pieces aren't clicking or more pressure than usual coming from the other side, the offense hasn't had a second option or a second gear.
33:36
A plan B, I guess, would be a better way of saying it. So I'm not super optimistic right now, but I mean, I see the upside, and again, trying to be positive as a fan, but I'm a little bit down on this team.
33:47
If they, like, can hang around the playoff picture, I'd be pretty happy. Seven and a half season win total, over, under? [sighs] I mean, eight is what I was gonna say.
33:57
I feel like it's just kind of a 500 type team, so I'd probably take the over, but I'm not thrilled about it. Yeah. At least I could, yeah. You- P- Paul, you always had that poster in the background?
34:06
I just noticed that for the first time, the Yanks. No, I swapped that one out. Yeah. We had a World Cup poster. Oh, okay, good. World Cup trophy. Swapped that one out a little while ago.
34:13
Gil, can you name all three players in that poster? I'm sorry, what did you say? I can't hear you. [laughs] I, is it Michael Bradley in the back? I can't tell. Yeah. Yeah, Michael Bradley- We got all three of them...
34:23
Clint Dempsey, Tim Howard. Yeah. There you go. Oh, I could've named those three. I couldn't have named four. Good as those guys. [laughs] Couldn't have named four. Paul- Landon Donovan...
34:31
appreciate- [laughs] Landon Donovan. Freddy Adu. He wasn't on that team, Fred, yeah. Freddy Adu. [laughs] Freddy Adu, yeah. Uh, he's still kicking around somewhere. One, one of these days he's gonna be huge.
34:38
[laughs] Thank you, Paul. It's coming. Look out. Appreciate it. See you. Super Bowl exactas next on the Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter?
34:57
Start with Smarter Insights. Right now you can check out Nigel Sealey's Premier League weekend best bets, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, Auburn-Baylor preview and picks.
35:05
Can't wait for, for weekend college football coming up. Later today you can check out Saturday College Football Previews. Kentucky Downs weekend horse racing picks, and Zach Cohen's US Open picks.
35:13
Right now you can sign up for as little as 9.99, access all the VSiN Pro articles. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. I have a little bit of an announcement to make, Kelly, that I didn't inform you of.
35:25
Perhaps I should have informed you of this off air. Okay. Regularly on Wednesdays this year, this football season, Todd Wisniew. Oh, there we go. Toddy Wisniew, baby. All right, Todd, there we go. In the hizzy. Like it.
35:40
We get tweets at Bet the Book. Y'all are the best. Oh, I got a few of these, Kelly. Did you see this? Um, Ryan Kleinfelter, "Yo, Gil,
35:50
I put $100 on Green Bay two days ago, well before the Micah trade, to win the NFC North. Is my bet going to get voided by DraftKings? I'm kidding. Didn't bet it, but just saying."
35:59
Well, you weren't the only one to say it, actually, um, because we got a couple others in that vein as well. This was from, uh, K Flow, "Great sh-," uh, talking about great show yesterday with Matthew Bowser.
36:09
How great was that with Matthew Boyer- That was so good, yeah... Matthew Boyer yesterday? He, he sent bows. It's Matthew Boyer. He says, "Does the Parsons trade immediately put DraftKings' new policy to the test?
36:17
Any wagers earlier this summer on the under were technically made prior to adjusting their ability to adjust the line." And also from, uh, James Verleger, "Are DraftKings going to cancel everyone's Green Bay bets now?"
36:28
Yeah, they wouldn't dare. They wouldn't dare. Would they? Bill Hooker, "Jerry also brilliantly traded Amari Cooper to the Browns for a fifth round pick. Browns kept Cooper two years and traded him for a third rounder."
36:39
Nice job, Jerry. Jonathan Doe, "I'm getting over 22 and a half games on that tennis match at, at pl- at even money. Is this still playable? Over 21 and a half games is minus 135. Is this unplayable? Thanks, Gilly."
36:52
Uh, it's, it's an in- that is a great question with pricing. Um, I'm gonna say this, I would not play the over 22 and a half. Would not play that number, despite the even money.
37:09
I could get into the math of it, but I, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna go all Fezzik on you. Speaking of which, Tim Bauer says, "Gil, does a numbers game have tips for separating fandom from betting?
37:17
It seems like a fan could have an information edge if they follow good beat writers close enough." That is correct. That's absolutely correct. You should, what is the Matt Brown thing?
37:25
Curate your beat re- re- beat writers on Twitter- Yeah, man-... for information... you don't have to be a fan to do that, though. Yeah.
37:31
Also, he says, "Was Fezzik ever a sports fan, and does he enjoy watching sports, or is he just a human computer?" He is just a human computer, but I will ask him if he was ever a fan. That's a great question.
37:41
Remember when you were a kid, were you a human computer or did you like a team? It's a good point. You robot. Never, I've never really... Yeah, I've never really heard him talk about that, I guess. Mark...
37:49
Oh, he was a Cincinnati Reds fan. I can answer that. He was a Cincinnati Reds fan. I mean, I guess that's what I would have assumed, but- He was a big Reds fan.
37:55
He can, uh, you wanna talk 1976 Cincinnati Reds, he's your guy. By the way, he says the Big Red Machine collapsed when they traded Tony Perez.
38:05
Mark Bono, "Three pitches for three outs, in my opinion, is the rarest of feats. Manny Rivera did it in a playoff game." Yeah, I mean, they als- they obviously have math involved in this of what is the rarest.
38:15
Uh, Ray in Texas, "With, uh, Boise State looking so bad last night, doesn't that justify that Ash-" [laughs] That is a good tweet. "... Ed Genty was the true Heisman last year?" Genty never would've let that happen.
38:26
[laughs] That's a great call. M- MVP, yeah. Yeah, I had that ticket on Genty. Didn't get there. Kevin Downs, my brother from another, he says, "A US Open memory, 1999, went to day session with ground tickets.
38:37
When I was leaving, a young man had two extra tickets for the night session opening night of the Arthur Ashe Stadium." Wow, what a gift. "Whitney Houston was the guest, sang One Moment in Time." Sing it, Kelly.
38:49
Yeah, I can't. I'd like to. Duke of the South, "Please do a quick recap of Paul Carr." An over on Saturday and two unders on Sunday. What were the plays again, Kelly?
38:59
We have Leeds, Newcastle over two and a half goals tomorrow. Nottingham Forest and West Ham under two and a half on Sunday. Uh, and Liverpool, Arsenal under two and a half on Sunday.
39:13
By the way, the, the memes on Jerry Jones go from hilarious to just- Oh, yeah... just sick. You, Gil was having a good time yesterday- [laughs] Oh, God... afternoon, I'll tell you that much.
39:22
Oh, man, Paul Zang, "Can afford the expensive Todd Wischnev now with that extra five hours a week, huh?" Man, this man is very expensive. It's very true. Uh, all right, wanna talk, uh, Super Bowl exactas?
39:33
Kelly, I ki- let me just, let me preface this. Uh, Kelly Bidlin kind of sends me homework on a, on a nightly basis. Would that be accurate? Yeah. Like, "Hey, maybe let's talk about this."
39:41
Sometimes I'm like, "Oh, great bets." Sometimes, as you know, with some of the baseball ones we did in the last couple days, it's like this detailed thing, and you're like, "Yeah, these bets suck."
39:48
This was one, I don't think I've ever had this response to anything. Uh, you know the Price Is Right range game they used to play? So not Plinko, our favorite game. Range Game.
39:59
Copy- copy- copyright Beating The Book podcast.
40:01
But that, the range game where there was, like, this thing of prices, and this thing would go up and down, and then the contestant would have to stop it- Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah... and if the price was in that range.
40:09
I could not select one or two Super Bowl exactas based on that Green Bay news. I'd, like, have a range from which I believe it's going to, uh, I believe the bets, the best bets are.
40:21
You have, you have sexier ones than me, I'm guessing. I, [laughs] you want to go through your range now? Okay. My range is betw- somewhere between the 40 to 1 and 70 to 1 lies the winner,
40:32
and it ranges from Baltimore to beat Green Bay. These are exactas. Now, I am a proponent of match-ups. Wait, hold on. You did, I, um, I am guessing, though, you left out
40:42
cer- you did leave out some exact match-ups in this range, right? Not, not between 40 to 70 to 1. Oh, really? This is every one. These are all of the- Oh, wow, okay...
40:48
these are the 14 match-ups, excuse me, not match-ups, 14 exactas in between 40 to 1 and 70 to 1 at DraftKings.
40:56
I am a proponent of betting match-ups, 'cause I don't wanna go all that distance and lose on the, on the Super Bowl itself, but I believe the exacta is gonna come from this group. Problem, and by the way, I think
41:08
Green B- so in other words, I avoided all the Phillies. All the Philadelphias, I don't want any part of those, even though I still have Philadelphia power ranked number one.
41:16
If I'm, if you're betting a Super Bowl exacta, let's not bet the short shots here, right? Yeah, right. Let's have some bang for your buck on these.
41:22
But I do believe that you can't get too crazy, because I don't think an outlying team
41:30
that w- that, you know, that's not one of the usual suspects here, is actually gonna rise and win the Super Bowl or even compete in the Super Bowl.
41:37
I think it, I think it's a stepping stone league now, like the NBA used to be, and I think no team's gonna come out of nowhere.
41:43
So from Baltimore to beat Green Bay at 40 to 1, then a bunch of Green Bays to beat the, the, the Buffalo, Baltimore, KC trifecta in the AFC. KC to beat Green Bay is in there at 50 to 1.
41:55
Then I got Buffalo and Baltimore beating Detroit at 55 to 1. Detroit to beat Buffalo and Baltimore, 60 to 1.
42:01
Buffalo and Baltimore to beat Washington at 65 to 1, and then Detroit to beat KC, Buffalo and Baltimore to beat San Francisco at 70 to 1. Those are the groups of teams. So three in, uh, excuse me, three in the AFC- And
42:15
four, excuse me, yes, Green Bay, Detroit, San Francisco, Washington. Three in the AFC, the three top teams in the AFC, and then the four right below Philly. I think your Super Bowl exacta should come from that group.
42:30
You pick the combination. Yeah, ma- mainly agree. Um, I think i- in different years, there's different opportunities, uh, a- and different ways, I think, to bet this market. Um, the...
42:40
What's the likelihood, though, that one of the AFC, uh, uh, representatives is not the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs? I don't even know if I'd go past that, right? I wouldn't. Like, it's n- it's not much.
42:50
And then you kinda have-- I agree with you. It's Philly on top in the NFC, but then it's kinda wide open after that. Now, if you get two conferences like that, you can have some real fun with- Yeah...
42:59
these exactas and go real deep. So what I did was mainly just kinda, "Okay, who, who do I like best in the AFC? And then let's tie in maybe some randomness in the NFC." So I went to two Bills exactas.
43:11
I don't really know how we made the same bet, though, and had, uh, d- different numbers, unless someone, someone [laughs] came in and bet the Bills over the Commanders yesterday. Well, I looked up- [laughs] Yeah.
43:19
Um- Unless I, unless I don't understand- I, yeah, no, 75 to 1. That was what I looked at it... how this here numbers things works. Yeah. Yeah.
43:25
Maybe someone came in and bet this, and then, uh, it got bet down to 65 by K- by the time Gil got there. I included the Rams, too. I've talked about them over the off-season. Yeah, see, I didn't- Bills over Rams...
43:34
Rams, Texans, I did not, uh- Yeah... written, I did not include those two teams. And then I just went one, this is my, the one crazy one.
43:39
If you wanted to go fun, and we talk about Bills, Ravens, Chiefs not making it, uh, who's the next AFC team that could? How about a Rams over Texans, uh, Super Bowl exacta at 450 to 1? Wow. You really went nuts on there.
43:53
So I mean, that's, that's the thing. Usually when, when we do this, I have, "These are my favorite bets, and, and I'll tell you if I'll bet them or not."
43:59
This one was just, "I don't know if I can select one right now, but this is the range from which it comes." By the way, if you're wondering what are the short shots here, Eagles to beat Rav- these are all 30 to 1.
44:10
Eagles to beat Ravens, Bills to beat Eagles, Ravens to beat Eagles, Eagles to beat Bills, Eagles to beat Chiefs. It's 35 to 1, that last one, but the rest are 30 to 1.
44:19
Those are the short shots, by the way, followed by Chiefs to beat Eagles. So all of the Eagle combos with the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs, win or lose, are your top six. Mm-hmm. And it makes sense.
44:32
And it makes a lot of sense, yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. And then what, the Lions combinations come after that, right? You and I both did our NFC power rankings yesterday. Generally, they come after that, yeah.
44:39
Yeah, it, we both did our power rankings yesterday, and we had that conversation, right? You kinda have to go one-two with the Eagles, Lions, uh, at the top of the NFC.
44:47
I think there's room for that to change through the season, and that's where, like, like, me and you aren't betting this right now, but we could. We could. We, we could in a c- in a month or two.
44:54
I wanna see how this NFC shapes up a little bit. I th- I think I'm more likely to bet a matchup, though. Mm.
44:59
Despite the, obviously, that price will not be as long, but I think that's probably the way I go on some of these, like I did with baseball, just matchup. Just get Padres, Tigers, just meet in the World Series.
45:10
66 to 1 for me. Make it happen. Um, but anyway, a fascinating market to look at here before the season even starts. Um, Eagles are the short shot, but I got my range from which I think the winner will come.
45:24
We'll come back. Still on the show today, Steve Fezzik, Chris Fallica. It's a Friday on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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