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Aug 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 2
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45:35
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Transcript
0:00
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0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
1:09
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. Producer number nine, Kelly Midland.
1:19
So much more than a producer. Hey. [laughs] What's going on? What's happening to you? Going through puberty? [laughs] I, I had to, uh, I had to, I, I don't... We had a open rolling problem too. Oh, really?
1:32
You didn't, you didn't see my great acting just now. Oh. No, I did not. No. Hmm. Show rejoined just on me. Really? Yeah. Oh, I did not see that. Maybe we should do that for right on the reg. Yeah.
1:42
[laughs] It's a good way to catch us off guard. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets that beat to the book.
1:46
Chris Heath, "Based on Fezz's passion for '80s, '90s wrestling, I assume he's a fan of some other form of sports entertainment." Uh, Bama Sluggers has a question for Fezzik when he comes on later.
1:56
"Can you ask Fezz if a 14-12 point teaser at minus 120, uh, minus 110 a good option for the NFL?" Oh, he has, he has comments on that. Brian Schaefer, again, he says, "Minnesota and the Bills," oh, on our exacta segment.
2:09
He goes, "Minnesota and the Bills just to meet, a matchup at the Super Bowl 50 to 1." He says, "Not a bad pizza money bet." And then JC is, uh, showing me a, a little gif of, uh, Color Me Badd.
2:22
He says, "Young Gil in the '90s trying to push his CD out the trunk. I'm here all week." Ah, Color Me Badd. What's your favorite Color Me Badd song, Kelly? I do not know. Okay. I'm gonna go I Adore Mia Moore.
2:35
Thanks for asking. Um, we have Mr. Falica on the show? No, we do not. We do not. Oh, Mr. Fa- We're, we're, we're efforting Christopher Falica. Uh- Li- Live from a Fox commercial set, I believe...
2:44
known colloquially as The Bear. That's coming up on the show. Um, NFC, uh, excuse me, AFC South. Do you want me to get an AFC South team in? Do you want me to do that while we wait for Chris? Sure.
2:54
Do you want me to do that? Let's start, 'cause we're gonna talk AFC South a little later on the show. Uh, but let's start at, uh, well... Okay, now I'm told it is Chris Falica.
3:01
There's your tease for the exciting AFC South coming up later on the show, along with Steve Fezzik. Uh, Chris Falica joins us now from Fox Sports, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
3:10
He's also, of course, not only on Big Noon Saturdays, Texas-Ohio State tomorrow, but also the emperor of the Bear Bets empire, podcast empire over there at Fox Sports, @ChrisFalica, F-A-L-I-C-A, on Twitter.
3:24
How you doing, man? Where you, where you calling from? I, I'm in, I'm in our meeting room.
3:28
We're waiting to knock out a bunch of promotional stuff and marketing obligations for the, uh, for the show, and I'm told that we have a specific order that we need to go in.
3:37
So, um, I, uh, my, my spot in the lineup has not come up yet, so we'll, uh, we'll, we'll knock the South before we head down there. Okay.
3:42
Well, I wanna start with this, and I, and your Fox cohorts there, if you can sort of shut them out from this particular question. [laughs] I know you love being at Fox. I know this is awesome.
3:51
Texas-Ohio State, I know this is the beginning of a, of a great college football season over there at Fox.
3:56
But if you could, for this one Saturday, if you could be back on the set of College GameDay because it's your buddy Lee Corso's last day, would you choose that option? Oh, in, in a heartbeat. I, I think what...
4:10
And I was thinking about this, uh, last night. I'm 53 years old. I was a part of that show for 27 years. That sh- I, I was a part of that show for more than half my life. Wow.
4:20
I, I mean, it, it, it's obvious that all of those people, uh, involved in that show are much more than, than friends. I c- I consider them family.
4:29
And, uh, li- like, like I've said, Lee is responsible for giving me the, the, the nickname Bear. Um, he, he, Kirk and I were having, having brunch one day, and Lee walked by us and, and he, and looked at the table.
4:42
A- a- anyone who's been out with Kirk and I know that any dead space on a table, uh, is a wasted space. [laughs] Like, you need to fill every inch of the table with food.
4:51
So, so Lee looks at the table, he looks at Kirk, he looks at the table again, and he looks at me, and he just says, "Look at you, Falica. You're just like a bear. You eat, you sleep- [laughs]...
5:03
you poop, you sleep again- [laughs]... you do it all over again." See, I bet you you thought I was gonna say the S word- I did... on Pot- Thank you... on Potty Mouth Friday. That's right.
5:12
On, on Potty Mouth Friday, but you, but you, but you're welcome. Yeah, he's responsible for giving me this, this nickname Bear and this little persona, and who's to know that
5:20
m- my career doesn't take off because I had this adorable little, cute little catchy nickname? But no, he, he is, he, he's great.
5:27
And just to give you, like, the personally, on a personal level, like the type of guy that he is, I mean, back when I was... I wasn't making much money e- e- however many years ago it was, and
5:37
I, I'm sitting down in, in the meeting room, looking at, like, flights for vacations and how much pri- how much they cost, and I'm kind of mum- mumbling out loud like, "Ah, it's too much money.
5:48
Let me see how many miles they are, and I, and I need, like, 30,000 more miles," or whatever it is for that. And, and Lee's, Lee's kind of wandering around, pacing, 'cause Lee could never sit still. Uh, and, and
6:00
I di- I, no, I wasn't, like, talking out loud so he could hear me, but I'm gonna speak. He, he, he hears, and when I'm, when I'm done, he comes over to me, and he's like How many miles do you need to play?
6:10
You could just call, just call Dawn on, on, on Monday and have her take care of it. Just take them out of my account so you and Molly can go, go on vacation."
6:17
So it's like I, I wasn't doing it to have him pick up miles to give me to go on a vacation, but that's just a, uh, the, the type of guy he was. Uh, just a good and genuine person.
6:28
And, and I'm sorry, one more, one, one more Corso story- Yeah... which, which the betting public I think will- Please... will, will appreciate.
6:34
Like one of, one of the weekly pre-meeting routines was, like w- w- the meeting started at 9:00 AM, 10:00 AM, whatever time, uh, it did.
6:44
Lee would always be there early, 'cause coach's time meant the meeting started at 10:00, you were there at 9:45.
6:51
So like I would typically be there, and when I would walk in the room, the first thing Lee would do would be to walk over to me and kinda, kinda lean in and be like, "For my friends at the country club."
7:04
Like I would always have to give him like one pick, who my favorite pick was, uh- [laughs]...
7:08
o- o- o- of the week, and he would kinda lean in, lean in with, with, with, with one ear, and then turn, then he had to lean in with his good ear, uh, 'cause the hearing that he lost after the stroke.
7:16
So, uh, L- Lee, Lee always said, "People, people only care about who's gonna win and by how many."
7:21
So, uh, he, uh, he certainly understood the, uh, the importance of like when he would pick a, a team to win by, uh, a touchdown and a safety, that, that was significant to some. Significant to some.
7:33
I, honestly, he, he is an American treasure. Uh, L- Lee Corso, 90 years old, his final College GameDay tomorrow, uh, for the Texas-Ohio State game after 38 seasons, 38 plus seasons on College GameDay.
7:48
So you said you spent half your li- over half your life there. He spent more than a third of his life there, you know, uh, as well.
7:53
And it's just, again, College GameDay, and I'll say this again, Chris, of all the things that ESPN ever did, maybe 30 for 30s, maybe there's something else I'm forgetting in there, but College GameDay was the institution we all loved beyond, but beloved.
8:06
I don't think there's anybody I've ever heard say, "This show is t-..." Like everybody loved College GameDay. And so, um- [laughs]... anyway, a tribute to Lee Corso tomorrow.
8:14
It's gonna be, uh, emotional to watch, more so for you than anybody else. About Texas and Ohio State, this is flipping as people thought it would. We're showing a pick 'em right now. I saw. It went back to a pick, right?
8:26
Well, some- I think it's even ticking Texas's way in some spots. Okay. But consensus, it's a pick right now. Wow. Circo went to a favorite late last night- Yeah... after taking a 500K bet- Yeah...
8:36
and then it got bet back to pick 'em. There you go. Here at Circo. So what's the deal? Where do you stand on this game tomorrow? I hate the game from a betting standpoint.
8:47
Um, I came on a few weeks back a- and talked about betting under 50 and a half.
8:52
So I think it's my, it's my, uh, to quote my, channel my inner Gil Alexander from Washington Na- Washington Nationals World Series obligation now to kind of bet a little bit over 40 and a half or 47, uh, look, look for a nice little four or five-point middle there, uh, on the, uh, on the total.
9:09
Look, I mean, I, I could tell you w- whatever. Like I think ultimately Ohio State will win.
9:16
I almost think it's a little bit of an advantage for Ohio State, the fact that they have a new offensive coordinator, uh, in Brian Hartline, who has never called plays before.
9:25
I'm sure Ryan Day will be in his ear helping him out. And a new defensive coordinator in Matt Patricia, who you really don't know what he's going to do defensively.
9:32
So I think that kind of has Texas a little, like, on edge. That element of surprise might be a, uh, a factor. It's all on the Ohio State offensive line.
9:41
Uh, if they can protect and give Julian Sayin time to throw the ball, I think they're gonna be able to make plays in this game. But, uh,
9:49
if I, push comes to shove, if I had to make a pick of the game, uh, I would pick Ohio State just 'cause I do think Texas might have a few more question marks certainly maybe on the interior of their defensive line.
10:02
All right. What's your, uh, what's your favorite play tomorrow? Maybe it's on the Fox end. I don't know. Uh, Ohio, uh, USC. Uh, yeah, I, I saw I think USC up to 36 now or 35 and a half. I still like it.
10:16
Uh, I, I see all the makings of like 49-7, uh, USC against Missouri State. A completely overmatched opponent. I think the SC defense, uh, is gonna be really good.
10:28
Uh, last year with Anthony Lynn in his first year, they did a good job improving the defense. This year I think they're gonna be even better. Uh, quarterback obviously will continue to develop throughout the year.
10:39
They really like their, their, their, their running back room. I had to say room just, just for you.
10:44
[laughs] But, uh, a- again, this is the type, this is the type of game that I think they can put a big number up, excite their fan base, get ready for the year.
10:52
It almost feels like SC is a little bit under the radar and there aren't as many expectations for, for SC as there normally are, and that might work out to be their, to be their benefit, uh, th- this year, 'cause usually it's like SC's overhyped, overhyped, overhyped.
11:07
But because they couldn't seal the deal on so many of those games, uh, in, in the fourth quarter last year, feels like they're being a little bit forgotten about just because you have three legitimate national title contenders in the Big Ten.
11:18
But, uh, SC minus the, uh, 36, I guess, whatever, we'll, we'll go with that now, uh, i- is my favorite play of Saturday. Favorite play of Saturday. How about today? It sounds like you're leaning into that.
11:31
I'm leaning into Sunday. Ah. Uh, I am, I am scared at how much I like Miami plus the points against Notre Dame. So- I'm scared how much I like them on the money line against Notre Dame.
11:43
Uh, the, the, the last time, well, the only time in the last 10, 15 years I've been this excited about a football season, Aaron Rodgers lasted three plays for the Jets. So, uh- [laughs]...
11:53
I'm sure, uh, should go well, uh, for, for me as a football fan, but I think people are going to be surprised at how good the Miami offensive line is and how revamped their secondary is, uh, especially in this, uh- Uh, uh, on the defensive side of the ball, they had their secondary revamp.
12:10
Defensive line will be good. Bacon has lost a ton of weight. Uh, Mario Cristobal has done a, an unbelievable job with his staff, just stacking talent the last three years.
12:20
A- and I think that, along with plugging in certain spots in the portal, uh, I think this is the year that it really pays off. I, I love them Sunday night.
12:28
I hope, um, I hope I'm sitting there on Sunday with a, a Liverpool win over Arsenal in the morning and a big Caines win over Notre Dame on Sunday night. Do we get you for one more segment, Chris, or are you bouncing?
12:40
Um- Love the seafood and ice cream... I, I, l- l- I, I- ice cream. Let, let me, let me find out. All right. I'll let you know at the point break. Ice cream. Maybe he'll stay for one more. We'll find out.
12:48
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:01
Don't forget to check out the sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros, sharpplays.com. Check 'em out.
13:12
It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bilow alongside.
13:14
Um, Felika, by the way, Chris, had to go, uh, had to go do his thing, Fox promo, uh, promotional stuff, and he, and he, uh, had ice cream there waiting for him, so ice cream takes precedence.
13:24
But- I didn't get to ma- give him any tips on the nod, you know? If in case he needs to do any nods in the promo. Oh, yeah. You know, just trying to help him out. You're, you're a big nodder in promos. Uh, you know.
13:32
Yeah. Um, but I don't- Oh, and accurate... I don't know if you guys saw this, we had drive-bys during that segment of, uh, Urban Meyer wa- walking perilously close to Felika.
13:40
I thought he was gonna say something on the little boy. I thought he was about to join the show, yeah. And, uh, Matt Leinart in the background having some coffee and ice cream as well, apparently.
13:47
Yeah, I- From the big noon... was there coffee there too? I couldn't tell at first if they were going for coffee, and then I saw, uh, uh, Leinart take a big old, big old bite of, uh, ice cream.
13:55
I was like, "Oh, it's, it's ice cream." That's ice cream, yeah. Um- And then the question becomes, is it too early for ice cream? 11:15 AM East Coast. Oh, good call. Right? Like, that's pretty much borderline, right?
14:05
Eastern time zone. Yeah. By the way, I just wanna clarify also, so the big noon, the big noon Saturday show for Fox is at the Horseshoe, and so is College GameDay. They're both at the Horseshoe tomorrow morning.
14:17
So Felika's gonna- I wanna say it makes sense, but you never see that... he, he's gonna see the Corso sendoff across the field kind of thing, but can't be on the broadcast.
14:26
By the way, they, they did a great Lee Corso, for lack of a better term, m- you know, retrospective, and poor Chris wasn't part of it either, 'cause ob- obviously he's not, not with the network anymore.
14:37
But that would've been nice to have had him as part of it as well. Anyway. He did go. Didn't he shoot some stuff for that? Or was this... Did he get left on the cutting room floor?
14:44
Yeah, maybe he got left on the cutting room floor. Yeah. He did, I, I think he shot- Yeah... some stuff for that, but- Yeah. We got tweets that beatied the book.
14:49
PJHPLS, I believe that's correct, "Happy Cade Horton Shove Day to all who celebrate." [laughs] That's a, uh, that's a nod to Cade Horton being on the hill for the Cubbies.
14:58
By the way, again, uh, if you missed the, uh, September wins segment earlier, I considered the Cubs as the only other team, uh, that I would've perhaps taken in September, but I landed on the Padres.
15:10
Uh, but what he's referring to is Cade Horton and Michael Monasano, who was our guest, what was it, two days ago? Mm-hmm. He's got big Cade Horton NL Rookie of the Year tickets as well.
15:18
How, how was, uh, how was salami pizza last night? Salami pizza was fantastic. Yeah? As always. Did you g- did you get it as an app for the table like we did last time? We got it as an app for the table.
15:27
Ah, that's the move. That's the move. Fantastic. With the Mo- with the Monasanos. Uh, JasonH11, "So Kelly making love to the camera." Yeah, that was weird. [laughs] It was weird. [laughs] That's weird.
15:36
Don't worry, I, in a weird moment, I take advantage of making it even weirder. What did you do? Did you point at it? No, I gave a little eyebrow, like, raise to the camera. Oh, this, this is so weird.
15:44
Yeah, it was real weird. So weird. Rob Graham, "Happy Friday Gilly, Kelly, also the Bear and Fez. Just wanted to give out my CFL picks." What do you got? Hamilton to cover five and a half, and the St.
15:55
Peters Eskimos under 52, he says. Okay. Ray in Texas. By the way, I gave up. Since you have not asked me about my CFL, uh, betting season- Oh, how's your CFL betting season going? Uh, I started, what was it, 3-0?
16:05
After your- Uh, I believe I went one in three after that, and I was like, "Okay, I'm done." There it is, there it is. That was fun. That, that was fun re-exploring. I apologize for not asking you about it. I know.
16:14
How dare you? Ray in T- How dare you?... Ray in Texas, "Gil and Kelly, y'all want another good tweet?" he says.
16:18
"Chance is Jerry Jones didn't remember that Dez didn't catch it, and thought giving Parsons to Green Bay was to make them feel better about the catch." His take on it. Corbin, "Good morning, fellas.
16:28
Absolutely loving the third hour. Not sure about everyone else, but the mornings have been flying by with the extra hour. The cherry on top, we get Toddy for the football season.
16:35
Amazing betting tips and even better yinzer accent. Can't wait for the play-by-play," he says. Nemesis Enforcer, "Lifelong Cowboys fan since the McC-," uh, "done," he says he's, "done since the McCarthy hire.
16:47
Biggest takeaway from the Netflix series, Jerry had a sit down with Jimmy Hoffa about buying the Chargers way before the Cowboys. Zero media coverage." I guess I missed the joke there. I don't know. Yeah.
16:57
Maybe that's part of the thing.
16:58
Dgen Southern Gent, "One of the funniest things at this point about the Jerry Jones saga is that when I'm watching AI-generated content of Jerry admitting to purposely sabotaging the Cowboys roster, I can't tell if it's satire or not."
17:09
[laughs] That's a good call. Yeah. All right. AFC South, you excited? Yeah. Oh. I got a bet again. I'm excited. Okay.
17:16
Uh, to make the playoffs in this, uh, division, Houston minus 130, Jacksonville plus 170, Colts plus 230, Titans plus 370. Maybe a little more bunched up than you, than you might imagine there. To win the division,
17:30
Houston plus 105, Jacksonville plus 280, Indie four to one, Tennessee plus 650. Maybe not as long as you anticipated. Uh, let us begin with the Houston Texans. Kelly loves himself some Houston Texans.
17:41
Season win total, nine and a half. Under juiced at minus 130. Texans began the year strong last year. They started five and one. They ultimately won the AFC South with 10 and seven record.
17:50
Uh, this by the way, through the prism of Cleve TA's fantastic football preview. Um, but remember they ran into the Chiefs in the AFC divisional round. They lost. Surprisingly, it was an elite defense.
18:03
Top seven, defending both the run and pass by expected points added that carried the Texans behind a terrible, uh, because they carried the Texans because they had a terrible offensive line, a poor run game.
18:14
Multiple devastating injuries to the wideouts. They finished just 25th in EPA and 27th in success rate on offense. Stroud, C.J.
18:20
Stroud in his sophomore campaign, pressured at the sixth highest rate, took the second most sacks against the third easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses by EPA.
18:29
And that led to the firing of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Uh, Texans were forced into tough third down spots. Stroud was able to bail them out enough to keep drives alive.
18:39
But typically it's your early down offense that's more predictive going forward. And for the Texans' sake, you hope that that does not converge in 2025, 'cause they were not good on first and second down last year.
18:49
Uh, they had to get the bailouts from Stroud. Some of their offensive failures can be blamed on the misfortune when it comes to injuries to wideouts and ten- and tight ends.
18:57
Second worst injury luck among their pass catchers in the league last year, including season-ending injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
19:05
Both of them missed 12 games combined, and Nico Collins was out for five games, if you recall. Texans also didn't do themselves any favors committing the third most penalties in the league.
19:15
Um, no single penalty in the league [laughs] was called for more penalties than Laremy Tunsil. He's in DC now. He had 17 of them.
19:22
On the other side of the coin though, Texans did benefit from generating the third most EPA from turnovers on D, forced the second most picks in the league.
19:29
Good nose, uh, good news for the Texans is that even on drives where you exclude turnovers, their defense was still top five in the league in lowest drive success rate allowed.
19:38
I think that's probably the sneakiest thing about this team. People underrate their defense. Yeah, I think. I, e- even, even with how much it's been talked about this summer and off season, I agree with you.
19:47
I think it's still an... It is, it is my second highest rated defense in the NFL. Behind the? Behind the Denver Broncos. Yeah, the Denver Broncos.
19:54
Last season, by the way, Houston, uh, faced one of the top 10 easiest schedules. Only 35% of their opponents cleared their win totals, tied for second lowest in the league.
20:03
50% of the snaps they faced came from quarterbacks who were either backups or finished 30th or worst in EPA per drop back, so they got the good fortune of that.
20:10
This year they play eight teams currently favored to make the playoffs, and even some of their easy opponents, like Tennessee, Jacksonville, and V- Las Vegas, could be much more improved.
20:20
They do catch a break though having to play three Sunday 1:00 PM home games against teams, that's 1:00 PM Eastern, against teams that play in the Western or Mountain Time Zone.
20:28
So San Francisco, Denver, and Arizona might be at a clock, a body clock disadvantage against Houston. Revamped off- 'Cause Houston's always gotta play early, Gil. Doesn't matter if it's playoffs or regular season.
20:38
[laughs] Houston already earmarked for that early Saturday wild card weekend. Uh, Texans completely revamped their, uh, terrible offensive line. Tunsil gone, Kendrick Green gone, Kenyon Green gone.
20:48
In are Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, Jake Anders, and Ed Ingram. Um, is it the best replacements? Well, I don't know about the best.
20:56
Robinson was okay with Jacksonville, but after he was traded to Minnesota at the deadline, he was terrible. So that's not good. Allowed a 9.5% pressure rate with the Vikings, 33 pressures allowed from weeks 15 on.
21:07
They were by far the most in the league among tackles. Ingram has never graded above a 59.5 by Pro Football Focus in his three-year career, one of the worst starting guards in the league. So just because you're a...
21:17
We get through this with Dr. Bob in college football too. A lot of college football experts like to say, "Oh, they're returning 11 starters."
21:24
Or in football they, "Oh, they replaced this bad offensive line with these players."
21:27
Yeah, but sometimes when you have the same players in college, they suck to begin with, so keeping all your starters isn't a good thing.
21:34
And sometimes in the pros when you're like, "Oh, we revamped our entire offensive line," sometimes you're not even bringing in players that fill the, uh, that fit the bill for, for making you better.
21:42
Yeah, there are, I mean, admittedly, it is, it is absolutely the weak link of the team. Cleave and others have pointed out this summer they expect [laughs] this offensive line unit to be just as bad, if not worse. Yep.
21:52
Um, I, I mean, I do, I, I leave that possibility open, Gil. I think I also, I also do the, the counter though of the, "Well, it was so bad last year, how much worse can it get?" sort of thing. Last thing on the Texans.
22:03
They got Nick Chubb, but he's not really much of a, uh, he, he, he- Losing Mixon hurts... he doesn't play on third downs, right? Christian Kirk they got from the, uh, for the Jaguars at wideout.
22:14
But the defense, bottom line, defense in another potentially poor division gives the Texans hope for another double-digit win season. Defense great last year.
22:22
They'll likely face a much tougher set of quarterbacks though. Um, defense from year to year, this is, handicappers should know this, defense from year to year, much less stable than offense.
22:33
We see this with Aaron Schatz in DVOA, uh, with cornerbacks for instance, specifically at a, at a position. DeAngelo Hall, remember him? Mm-hmm. Would go from being a top 20 rated cornerback to a bottom 20- Yeah...
22:44
cornerback from year to year. But for the defense entirely, less predictive than offense. Um, so we'll see if Houston can sustain it on that side of the ball.
22:53
Um, but Stroud, uh, and a, and a, what should be a little bit of a better offensive line, or, or as Cl- Cleave says, it could be as bad or potentially worse than last season.
23:03
So he's, he's not thrilled with the offensive line replacements. But, um, because he says just because you change the names on the offensive line doesn't mean it's an upgrade.
23:09
So, and, and, and going from Tunsil, despite the penalties, to Robinson is a massive drop, so he points that out. So there's some, there's some good in there, there's some bad. All that to say you like them to win.
23:18
You're, you're bullish on the Texans. Yeah, I'm in on the Texans to win the division. I think Mi- Mixon missing some games at the beginning of the season's gonna hurt.
23:24
I think there is an opportunity on the schedule as well, uh, where I might add to them. Like, those are two tough games out, out, out of the gate, Rams and Bucs. You're missing Mixon.
23:33
I might get in more after that when they go to face Jacksonville, uh, to win the division. But, uh, offensive line concerns are real, Gil. I, I love everything else they have.
23:43
I think they're exactly what they've always been. I don't think they're a Super Bowl contender, but I think they could win this division kind of easy- Yeah... and play that first game [laughs] Saturday wild card weekend.
23:50
Coming back. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game. We get tweets that beat to the book, always appreciated.
23:59
Pick 10 and 4, Lee says, "Yo Gil, uh, the last half hour of that segment on Corso, Chris was in it a little, but not much," he said, "but a bit." So okay, I got that wrong.
24:10
So Falica was in there for a second or two in the, uh, in the Corso thing I know, but we- I'm glad. That was- But I was talking to- That was stunning...
24:17
I thought I was talking to Chris, and he was like, "Yeah, I don't think I got in there." So maybe he doesn't even know. Well, some- some of it- Yeah... we, we shoot these things sometimes.
24:23
Yeah You don't know what's gonna end up happening with them. Yeah. Uh, 3JackH3131, "Gil, can you provide odds on a College GameDay versus Big Noon Kickoff rumble on the football field of the Horseshoe tomorrow?
24:32
Maybe get Wes Reynolds on the horn for the wrestling expertise." [laughs] That'd be great. The four homer thing this year is crazy.
24:39
I can't believe how many tweets I've gotten this show either trying to correct me that, that Sw- [laughs] it was not Suarez, it was Kurtz, even though it was all three of them. It was all three of them.
24:47
Or, or the tweets that I've gotten that was, it's, it's three times and listing all three. Yeah. We, uh- Everybody forgot about Suarez beginning of the year anyways.
24:54
Alan Harris also pointed out, "It's three times this year four homers. Nick Kurtz also." Yeah, we mentioned that earlier. It's, it's, it's only happened 21 times in the history of baseball. Three times this year.
25:02
That's wild. It's incredible. I might have you go through that baseball list again later, 'cause that was just the, the things that are tougher to do. Oh. It's, it, it's, it's- It's amazing...
25:10
it is tougher to hit four home runs than throw a perfect game these days. Oh, this is a good one.
25:13
Crazy Carl, "Can you please get Mike Pritchard back on the show to talk about how the 1990 National Championship debate will be settled tonight?
25:19
I can't believe this is the first time Colorado and Georgia Tech have played since then." So true. Yeah. 35 years later. Let's settle it on the field. Who's the real national champ- Ah... from 1990? Miss Pritchard.
25:31
I miss Pritchard too. Pritchard's great. Yeah. Back to the AFC South. I feel bad I didn't get to say hi to those guys. Didn't you say Salinas tweeted in yesterday too, right? Salinas texted in yesterday. Texted.
25:41
I, I almost wanna just interrupt their podcast recording just to say hi. That, that- But that would have been very rude... that podcast should just be called The Nicest People in the World Podcast. That's right.
25:48
James Salinas, Mike Pritchard, and Brady Cannon. Yep. Yep. Uh, l- I'm gonna do Jacksonville here in the AFC South.
25:54
And after Jacksonville, this is the big tease, Kelly is gonna reveal, 'cause Jacksonville is part of this, I think, is gonna reveal his teams you will not dare bet an under on this year.
26:04
Uh, if, no, no, at least for the first, I, well, I'll classify it as the first four weeks. How about that? For the first four weeks, teams that you will not dare- Not even consider...
26:12
not even c- you're getting very aggressive about it. Would even consider. You're very angry about it. Mm-hmm. Very aggressive. That's okay. About Jacksonville, 4-13 last year. Do you remember that?
26:20
Were they 4-13 last year? Yep. Is that true? I have to double-check that. That can't be right. Trevor Lawrence only started 10 games due to injury, but the Jags were just 2-8 in those games anyway.
26:29
[laughs] Lawrence followed up a mediocre season where he ranked 16th in EPA per drop back with an even worse season, 21st in EPA, 20th in success rate.
26:38
Hey, remember when that, uh, that guy here, when I asked, uh, is Tre- Trevor Lawrence genera- before I could even get the word generational out, he goes, "Yes, he's generational."
26:45
[laughs] Do you remember that guy who was host here? Uh, he threw 11 touchdowns with seven picks, Trevor did last year. Was credited with the, uh, 10th highest turnover worthy play rate by Pro Football Focus.
26:56
Potentially a make or break season for Lawrence as the future franchise quarterback of the Jags per Cleve T.'s preview. On the bright side, Brian Thomas Jr., spectacular. Oh, he was awesome.
27:06
87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. Looks like a cornerstone of their offense going forward. Defense for Jacksonville, awful. Second straight season, 31st in EPA, 26 in success rate.
27:19
And what's really scary about those numbers, Cleve points out, is that they face the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
27:24
They held just three opposing offenses to an EPA below their seasonal average, tied for worst in the NFL, generated the third lowest pressure rate in the league.
27:30
They were awful against deep passes, ranking 30th, 32nd in YAC, over expected on passes 20 plus yards in the air. I could go on. Do you know how many times they allowed that? A lot of them. 20 plus, uh, yards in the air.
27:43
How many plays- Oh, man... in the NFL season? I heard Drew and Andy bring this up on their- Dead last in this category... uh, dead last. Yeah. How many plays? Just, you think of a number.
27:53
Well, I give Drew and Andy credit for bringing this up, and my mind was blown when I heard this. Okay. There are 17 football games in a regular season. 17 football games.
28:01
How many, I mean, how many plays could a team possibly allow? Since you're asking, it's gotta be insane. It's insanely high. Uh, the num- because you're asking, I put 34. I just said two a game in my head. Yeah.
28:12
You are, you are l- you are more than half off. It is 71 plays. [laughs] Oh my God. That's insane. It's crazy. F- so more than four a game. More than four a game is what they gave up. Wow.
28:30
Of 20 plus yard offense. I almost fell off the treadmill when I heard, uh, Andy bring that up on the Deep Dive pod. Like, that's a ridiculous amount.
28:37
Jags last season suffered some of the worst overall luck in the NFL, though. Obviously losing Lawrence to a season-ending injury in week 13 was a big reason for their poorer season on offense.
28:46
But the Jags finished just 3 and 10 in one-score games. They should have been two and a half wins better, despite how bad. That's so- Mm-hmm... so they, they weren't a 4-13 team.
28:54
They were, like, a six point something win team. How about that? 6.5 win team. Uh, five of Lawrence's 10 starts came against playoff teams. Jags lost four of those fives by one score.
29:03
13 one-score games last year, tied for the second most in the NFL in the last decade. And incredibly, the defense forced just seven total fumbles all season. That's another amazing stat.
29:13
The defense forced just seven total fumbles, only recovered two. They're the first defense since the 2018 Niners, the 2018 Niners, to force single-digit turnovers in a season. That's, that's crazy.
29:25
You can just get lucky and force, "Oh, I hit- Yeah... I just banged into that guy and he dropped the ball." Last season, they faced one of the five easiest schedules in the NFL.
29:31
Once again, are expected to face a bottom 10 schedule of opponents. They face the seventh toughest schedule in the NFL the first 11 weeks of the season. Remember, know this about team schedules.
29:41
Jags face the seventh toughest schedule in the NFL first 11 weeks. If they can somehow stay afloat during that s- that stretch,
29:50
they might be able to make some noise, because then they face five bottom seven teams to end the season. In fact, they face the single easiest schedule in the NFL from week 13 on. Opponents
30:00
just 1 and 11 ATS with a minus 11.9 ATS margin when playing on the road. Oh, this is a scheduling spot. Pardon me. So this is a specific scheduling spot. They have a game against an opponent, I believe it's Houston.
30:17
It's Houston following... So Houston has to travel from Vegas to play the Jaguars later in the season There might be a Vegas flu. This, this, we can attach a trend to this.
30:26
Opponents are just one and 11 against the spread with a minus 11.9 ATS margin, wow, when playing on the road the week following a trip to Vegas.
30:37
So considering how young the Jaguars team is, and with new head coach at the helm, Liam, Liam Cohen, getting Houston off a game against the Raiders week 10 could be a nice fade spot. Yeah, that's something to remember.
30:51
Is it, is it Houston who's lose- leaving Vegas, or is it Jacksonville fading Vegas? Maybe I got that wrong. Who's... Can we show up the Jacksonville schedule one more time here? Yeah.
30:59
It, it's H- they play Houston after- Right... Las Vegas, I believe. But Jacksonville plays Vegas the week before. Correct. Correct. Okay, so it's a fade spot of Jacksonville. I just wanna clarify. I got that wrong.
31:08
So Jacksonville, young team, they play at the Raiders, there it is, week nine, and then they travel to play the Texans. That is a miserable spot for any team, one and 11 ATS.
31:19
Small sample size admittedly, but still one and 11 ATS. And for a young team, [laughs] maybe, maybe they will indulge in Las Vegas before that game against Houston. So circle that one, week 10 at the Texans.
31:31
Liam Cohen, new head coach. Travis Hunter, obviously their prize draftee, both sides of the ball. Dyami Brown comes over to join, uh, Brian Thomas Jr. from DC. And then there's, you know, Hunter.
31:41
If Hunter's a true shutdown corner, pair him with Tyson Campbell, who's really good. Pretty good secondary. Gotta have some better positive turnover regression this year, better close game luck. I don't know.
31:54
I mean, there was a lot that went unlucky for them, so maybe they're a middling team. May- uh, maybe winning eight or nine games and flirting with the division- Mm-hmm...
32:03
is a possibility if, if the luck factors break their way. But there's a lot not good either, right? Yeah. Yeah. I... They, they are one of many teams, Gil, that the... And I guess this can lead me into my little thing.
32:13
Yes, it can. But this is, this is... They are one of many teams where I think there is absolutely a reason to believe in what they could do offensively, but, but then you bring up the defense.
32:23
It's, it's, it's the Panthers conversation of this whole summer, where, uh, I, okay, I might not be as high on Bryce Young as a lot of people, but, but I get it.
32:31
I get why people are, a- and maybe there is some room for that Panthers offense, uh, to really grow. But nobody seems to talk about [laughs] how bad the defense was a year ago. Yeah.
32:39
And I don't think it's really gonna be any better. And, yes, let's do this. So here would be the list of teams that, at least for the first four weeks, Gil, I have absolutely no interest in betting an under- [laughs]...
32:49
in any game that these teams are involved in. All right, starting in the NFC, the Washington Commanders. Okay, that is your Commanders. Uh-huh. Is this still okay to say about? Right. I believe in this offense.
33:00
It is a very high-powered offense. The defense still has flaws. Yes. And I... You gotta show it to me first- True that... before I belie- I can come around.
33:06
The NFC South, you could include every team in the division if you actually believe the Saints offense can get something going. [laughs] The problem is I can't, I can't get there yet on the Saints. Right.
33:16
But the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers all check this box. Yes. I believe the offenses will be firing, and the defenses I have serious questions about. This is a great list. Rams, Cowboys, I'll, I'll throw you in there.
33:28
I'm eyeing the Rams this year. I expect that defense to come, uh, come together at some point. But to start the season, no. The offense looks great. I got questions on the defense. Uh, Michael Parsons just got traded.
33:39
I made this list before Michael Parsons got traded. Doesn't matter. Uh, Cowboys offense, believe in. I have a bet on over their total points scored in the regular season. The defense is an absolute disaster.
33:49
Over to the AFC. The Bills' defense has just gotten worse somehow over the, uh, off-season. Looks like Josh Allen's gonna have to do more and more every week that goes by.
33:58
So that, that's another team that checks this box. Obviously, the Bengals. Everybody's out there probably screaming at their radio right now. The Bengals, yes, are obviously in here. Oh, 100%.
34:07
Uh, the Jaguars we just talked about. And then the Dolphins, and I will include the Las Vegas Raiders, who I think have an upside- [laughs]... on the offensive side of the ball.
34:16
But besides Maxx Crosby, the defense is a disaster. It is damn near half the league, man. It is damn near half the league. [laughs] So don't expect to see many be- uh, under bets from me early in the year. I- Washington.
34:28
Let's review. Washington, Tampa Bay, the Rams, Cowboys, Falcons, Panthers, Bills, Bengals, Jags, Dolphins, and Raiders. Kelly cannot bet any unders involving those teams first four weeks.
34:40
We'll wrap up the AFC South next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:55
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34:59
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35:06
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35:14
Let me get through the last two teams of the NFC South. By the way, outstanding list from you. Thank you.
35:19
Uh, for teams- Some, some of it I've been thinking about, like all summer, but I, it just, it got to a, got to a breaking point yesterday. I was like, "I actually have to list all these out."
35:27
Uh, BMart on Twitter, "Is Parsons enough to warrant Green Bay being co-favorites to win the NFC North? Seems like an overreaction." Uh, I moved them up from fifth to third in my NFC power rankings.
35:35
I have Philadelphia and Detroit just out of respect a tick above them, but they're definitely third to me now. I don't know if you- I think they're in the conversation.
35:44
You think, uh, Drew's power ratings were for public, uh, consumption? Well, he said some power ratings on our show. Oh, yeah, he moved them up. Okay. He w- Yeah...
35:52
well, no, I was just gonna say how much, though, he moved them up. Oh, he moved them up dramatically. 'Cause it was... Yeah. Yeah. He has Green Bay now his second rated team in the NFC, and he moved them up over a point.
36:01
There you go. Colin Murphy, "Why does everyone say positive regression?" Did I say that? I don't think I did. He said, "Isn't that the same as progression?
36:07
And I never hear the word installed," because everything needs to be [laughs] installed, of course. [laughs] Can't bet a game unless it's installed, unless the line is installed. Um- Let's see.
36:17
Lucky Luciano, "Can you tell me how legal books here in New York can post two different lines on an inning bet? Go under run tab and look at zero runs in first inning, then go under run tab and look at nowhere...
36:26
" I, I, it's too much Lucky for, for me to handle on the show, but, uh- At the sa- same- At the same book or different books? Different- It doesn't matter.
36:33
It doesn't matter, 'cause if it, if it's different books, you should be shopping around anyways. And then me and Gil say on this show all the time- Within the same book... shop around with the same book.
36:41
Because they post so many markets these days, you can basically make the same bet at better odds. Indianapolis, season win total seven and a half, juice to the under. Six and a half juice to the over, minus 145.
36:51
Eight and nine last year. Playoff hopes officially dashed with that week 17 loss against the Giants. Remember that? Indy was a seven-and-a-half point favorite, and Drew Lock drew locked 'em. Yeah.
37:00
Uh- Giants team that had lost 10 games in a row in the prior two before the Colts by 21-plus points each, and they went in there and beat 'em.
37:08
Indy also lost a road game at Green Bay with Malik Willis at quarterback, week two, when Willis attempted only 14 passes. And even though the world knew that all he- they would do is run the ball, Indy couldn't stop him.
37:18
53 times for 261 yards. Anthony Richardson did not take the next step star- k- sorry, Kelly. I, I was definitely on the Colts that game. I remember- Yeah... that one. You know what they're doing. Why can't you stop them?
37:30
Yeah. That's all. That was old John Riggins, Joe Gibbs offense for a few years. Wow, I had forgotten about that game. Now I'm, I'm frustrated all over again.
37:36
[laughs] I, I, that was one of the most frustrating bets of the season. Your guy, Anthony Richardson, second, uh, season, uh, did not take the next step of the sec season. Finish, second season.
37:45
Finished 29th in EPA, 31st in success rate, minus 10.9 completion percentage. Over expected rate was by far and away the worst in the NFL. His receivers did drop a lot of passes, to be fair.
37:56
Dropping the highest rate of passes in the league, 11.3%. But even when including the drops, Kelly, 60.2% adjusted completion rate ranked last in the league out of 44 quarterbacks.
38:06
9% worse than the second-worst quarterback. Well, guess what? That might be why Daniel Jones is starting, part of the reason. Indianapolis suffered through some major injuries, though, last year.
38:14
While they finished 22nd in adjusted games lost, they did rank 30th at premium positions. So they got crushed in the main positions. Quentin Nelson, only player on the offensive line to play 17 games.
38:24
The rest of the line missed at least three games each, every one of them. Colts faced some tough luck at pass rush. Uh, when season-ending inter- injury before the season started to Samson Ekubam.
38:36
And they also had a DeForest Buckner injury. He missed five games. Really hurt, hurt the Colts' defensive line. They played 13 one-score games last year, tied for the most in the NFL with the Rams. Won eight of them.
38:46
Big reason was the defense, though. Forced a league-high 16 turnovers in the second half of games with a one-score margin, and generated the second-most EPA in the league from those, from those turnovers. But that's
38:56
su- not really sustainable, right? In fact, all of eight, all eight of their wins last season came by one score, and all but one came against bad teams. Wow. Oh, that's not good.
39:05
Their wins came against teams that were a combined 42 and 96 last season. Again, per Cleve T. Ay's wonderful football preview.
39:12
And those numbers are even worse when you consider three of their wins came against backup quarterbacks Tyler Huntley, Mac Jones, and Mason Rudolph.
39:18
They faced a very easy schedule of opposing quarterbacks, with only 13% of snaps faced coming from a top 10 group of EPA quarterbacks. Only Jared Goff faced them last year as a top 10 quarterback, EPA-wise.
39:31
31% of their snaps faced came against backups, fourth most in the league.
39:34
And when you also consider another came against Justin Fields, who was eventually benched, the Colts were much worse [laughs] than their eight and nine record. Yeah.
39:42
They faced one of the easiest schedules in the league, and as mentioned earlier, faced a high percentage of backup quarterbacks. Uh, this year, easier than average, but not one of the top 10 easiest schedules.
39:52
Daniel Jones, 31st out of 34 qualified quarterbacks [laughs] in EPA the last two seasons. So as bad as AR was, eh, this wasn't much better. They lost veteran center Ryan Kelly, guard Will Fry, linebacker EJ Speed.
40:05
They did add Charvarius Ward in free agency, and safety Cameron Bynum. Um, Ward was a great signing, by the way. So in the end... And by the way, Tyler Warren from Penn State was their big draft pick.
40:17
So Colts defensive line, their clear strength,
40:20
but it's now gonna get run by Bengals defensive coordinator, or former Bengals defensive coordinator, coordinator Lou Anarumo, taking over for Gus Bradley, so that's an upgrade.
40:27
But bottom line with the Colts, according to Cleve, bland team. Roster's not bad. Solid, yet unspectacular players up and down the roster. Not enough to elevate a bad quarterback situation. Yeah. I, I don't know.
40:42
Well said. I don't think Daniel Jones... Like, this is, this is what gets frustrating with it, because I think the weapons, the skill players on the offensive side of the ball are pretty solid.
40:51
I, Jonathan Taylor, that group of wide receivers. You add Tyler Warren into the mix. Uh, it's great. It, it's a great situation if you're looking to get upside out of a quarterback, Gil.
41:02
So I just don't know why you'd go to a Daniel Jones. Hmm. Well, yeah. I, it's just- What did Chris Collinsworth say? The most important position in this league is quarterback. Second most, backup quarterback.
41:13
Fail and fail here. Yeah. I, I mean, it's just, I, I don't think Daniel Jones is gonna be bad. But, like, what, I mean, where's the worst spot you can be in the standings at the end of the season?
41:23
What, Daniel Jones is gonna do just good enough for you to get six wins? A- And- Hmm... shmoney in the middle. I mean, like, it's, that's what y- that's what it feels like we're looking at with the Colts right now.
41:31
I, I, that whole quarterback decision took away any excitement for me that you could have with this team. Can I interest you in some Titans, six and a half, under slightly juiced?
41:41
Titans were three and 14 last year, but listen to this in terms of when we talk about where, was the team on the good side of fortune or on the bad side? They were three and 14, right, in the standings.
41:50
But they outgained 10 of 17 of their opponents last year on a yards per play basis, and finished 23rd in net success rate. So three and 14, but better yards per play in 10 of their 17 games.
42:02
A- And two and 15 against the spread. That, right? I believe that was it. The record ATS, yeah. The fact that their point differential ended up minus 149, per Cleve- That's wild...
42:12
testament to just how off the rails their season went. Will Levis, utter mess Dead last among qualified quarterbacks at EPA, success rate, and sack rate.
42:22
The only positive came from Levis' plays that allowed them to pick Cam Ward first. You could argue the special teams were as bad as Levis.
42:29
They ranked last in special teams DVOA, including finishing 32nd specifically on kickoffs, punts, and punt returns. It's that good?
42:37
The punt unit's DVO rating was the fifth worst single season in the 40-plus year of Aaron Schatz's DVOA database. Oh my God. Defense, at least competent. Uh, they finished two and six in one-score games.
42:50
Levis just flat out handed the other team points. Led all quarterbacks, giving up five touchdowns to opposing defenses, four pick sixes, and a fumble touchdown. Overall, the Titans' offense led the NFL with 33 turnovers.
43:00
In addition, the punt unit allowed a Kalif Raymond 90-yard punt return for a touchdown and a block punt touchdown. Titans tied with the Giants by allowing seven non-offensive touchdowns last season.
43:10
Titans also consistently shot themselves in the f- in the, uh, foot with penalties, committing the sixth most penalties in the league on defense last season. All of that to say
43:19
the quarterback position was so messed up that if Cam Ward is good at all, no one's saying he's Jayden Daniels or C.J. Stroud, the big quarterback, rookie quarterbacks from the last two seasons.
43:29
But he's obviously showed a lot of capacity moving from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami and now here. Last year, Titans were fortunate to face the third highest percentage of snaps against backup QBs,
43:45
uh, backs, backup QB snaps like Willis, Huntley, Flacco, Mac Jones twice. And this year, the schedule looks to be soft in general.
43:52
They're expected to face the top five easiest schedule opponents, face a league high nine teams at the bottom 10.
43:58
In addition, based only on EPA results from a season ago, that's expected points add, the Titans play the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.
44:07
Ward has a tough debut in Denver, of course, against a top five pass defense, plus dealing with the heat and the elevation.
44:13
But schedule makers decided to reward the Titans by keeping them home from Weeks nine through 13, a three straight home games and a bye week in that stretch.
44:21
Titans will not have to leave Nashville from October 27th until the first week of December. Wow.
44:27
And only 18 players who switched teams in free agency this spring who also played at least 90% of their team snaps last season, and the Titans got four of those players.
44:35
Linebacker Cody Barton, guard Kevin Zeitler, left tackle Dan Moore, safety Xavier Woods.
44:41
So, and, and by the way, Leroy Watson and Nicolas Petit-Frere, they're Titans' two top right tackles last season, graded worst and fourth worst in the league by PFF grade.
44:50
So Titans swapped out at wide, so that's a big upgrade for the Titans on the line, and the Titans swapped out Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett to pair with Calvin Ridley at wide out.
45:02
Lockett might have lost a step, good leadership guy. Defense stacked with Jeffrey Simmons, Devondre Sweat, Jones, Arden Key. Nice building blocks.
45:11
And special teams got John Fassel as a coach, so that's, that's something, 'cause John Fassel is a noted good special teams coach. So really, this is a pretty-- He's really bullish on the Titans. Mm-hmm.
45:19
And it all comes down to the fact that they got torpedoed. Same thing with the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last year. That's where the handicap with the Falcons and the Titans is very similar.
45:28
Hey, if you could just get something at quarterback that doesn't kill you, you might be better than people expect. Fezzik, next
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