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Aug 29, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | August 29, 2025 | Hour 3
00:00
44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So long as those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Thanks for tuning in however you do, we are grateful.
0:20
Gil Alexander here, Kelly behind the glass, because it is time, ladies and gentlemen, for Fezzik Fridays. Hit it. Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge.
0:34
It's time for Fezzik Fridays. Oh, yeah. Stevie Fezzik, everybody, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. How you doing? It's that time. Love this time of year. Football. Thank goodness.
0:46
I know it's that w- and how we know it's that time is that on our group, uh, text with, uh, Will Hill, Chris Falica, and Todd Wishnev, you have no tolerance for any outside topics at this time of year. That's right.
0:58
Someone posts that Belgium's in the Congo, and I say, "We'll talk about it in April." [laughs] It's great. Why April? Can't we do it in February for God sakes? Why April? No, w- March Madness still? I'm, we got- Sorry.
1:07
Okay... we got, Wishnev's, like, like, nightly basis, he's gotta bet his, you know, college football live. He has no time to talk about anything but sports. A- April's good. Let's do April. All right.
1:19
Um, we got a lot to talk about here, Steve. I don't know if you know this, college football and pro football. College football in full effect.
1:26
Now, by the way, was, any takea- here's the thing: we've, we've only had, we had week zero, obviously, and then we had 17 football games in college football yesterday, and I'm sure, I haven't heard this, but I'm guessing if I go around, people are like, "Oh, did you see?
1:39
Everything went under. I dun-da-da-da-da." You have something to say about quick reactions to things like this?
1:44
Yeah, so historically, actually, not the 40-point favorites plus, but the, but the favorites have, just typically do well when you start off- Week zero, early season... in week one. Yes, but the unders do well as well.
1:57
And so there's reinforcement for me that, hey, look to play unders, look to play alternative unders in terms of derivatives, team totals under.
2:05
When you see a game dropping, like Georgia Tech, Colorado, and it's 55, and then it goes 53, 51, normally, like if it's week eight, I'd say pass it. All right? Mm-hmm.
2:16
Week zero or week one, I'm like, get, get a chunk of it. Get a piece of it.
2:20
S- find a way to get in on the unders, because not only did the, the main board games go six and one to the under, but, like, all the, the extra games and the, a- a- and the, the added games, they went under the tune, to the tune of two-thirds, and it wasn't close, frankly.
2:35
Like, there were seven games. So Rutgers game soared over. Yeah, more than two-thirds of the games went under, more than two-thirds of the underdogs covered. Yeah, so the dogs covering I think is an aberration.
2:44
The unders I don't feel is an aberration. I think you can- Got it... take this going forward, and think about this: six of the seven games, I mean, there are games lined at 60, open 65, 61.
2:54
There, they, I think only one game get over 43. I mean, these games went not just under, but way under. I'm still waiting for Miami of Ohio to score. Uh, Minnesota got a pick six.
3:04
Uh, Buffalo got a pick six against Minnesota. [laughs] They still didn't score, because somehow the guy got caught from behind. Boise, Boise State, Boise State was terrible yesterday. Uh, it was just awful. Yeah.
3:12
And, and, and I do think if there's a lesson in the Boise, I know, I think Boise played one good game in Georgia once, but when, when you get a [laughs] team going to the heat and humidity of South Florida, um, and, and traveling multiple time zones like Boise, they just wore out in that game completely.
3:27
Okay, so the, your sentence there was a good clarification, which is, uh, while the underdogs are hitting, typically these are favorite weeks, so don't, don't read into that too much, but the unders, go with it. Yes.
3:39
Okay. Very much so. Um, one of your favorite topics, I always caution people, I'm like, "Steve Fezzik, nice in, nice in real life." Eh, Twitter Fezzik, not so much, @FezzikSports. Uh,
3:51
what is your l- what is your latest sort of heat check on the sports betting industry? What is, what is g- stuck, stuck in your craw right now? I, I think we all need to be careful.
4:02
I think I need to be careful because we're all gonna make mistakes. Like, th- th- th- this is, I mean, th- think about just in terms of betting, even the best bettors in the world are gonna be wrong 45% of the time.
4:11
So, um, you can have basic principles and, and things you, you stand for, but there's always exceptions to the rule.
4:17
There's always gonna be that rare time when it's right to play Moneyline parlays, when it's right to buy points, when it's right to play teasers even at bad odds.
4:25
So I think, I, I, I was thinking to myself driving in, I was like, "Be, um, Stevie, like, be m- b- don't try to say, like, a sweeping statement of this is right or this is wrong, because typically you're gonna, y- you're gonna be incorrect.
4:37
Be more flexible." Be more flexible, uh, specifically with you. Um, you're having a bad year in baseball? Yeah, baseball, I just looked. I'm down 51 units- Oh... after winning over 30 units- Ooh...
4:51
the, each and every year before. So I had a three-year run where I won over 100 units, and I was like, "Why am I having such a bad baseball?" And I know why. Because I correctly identified the value in the favorites
5:03
and that it was a, a league of haves and have-nots, and guess what's happened this year? All the haves have really [laughs] had bad second halves.
5:12
And so, um, fading teams like the Dodgers, like the Yankees, like the Mets, backing teams like Colorado and the White Sox would've made you a lot of money.
5:21
I just never got onto those trains, so b- I didn't do a good enough job. It's interesting, you know, uh, as you know, before I was a, primarily a tennis bettor, years ago I was primarily a baseball bettor.
5:31
Um, did nothing else really b- besides betting baseball for years, and I n- and you were an aggregator of my plays. Aggregator's a kind word, Stevie, but I notice you play a lot of favorites.
5:43
Has this always been your thing to play a lot of favorites? 'Cause that is r- rife with peril. Y- y- you know, it's interesting, because I was, I was like, "Look at me. I know more than the..."
5:52
Because I came out like four years ago, and I'm like, "All these square balls, like these dinos, keep saying you can't win, you know, playing any, any favorite above, you know, minus 140."
6:02
And I was like, I was crushing it playing, you know, the minus 180s and the, and the minus one and a half run lines, and the market just wasn't correcting how bad...
6:11
Look at last year, the Chicago White Sox, and, and look at, like, you know, teams like Colorado and, uh, and how the league had... There was no parity. Teams were suddenly losing 100-plus games.
6:21
Famously, remember when we were at the M and we were talking about, "Will one team lose 100 games?" Yeah. And we made that bet, and like five teams that year lost 100 games. It, it was the easiest win ever.
6:31
I mean, it was four teams.
6:32
Uh, and that just hasn't happened this year, so I correctly adjusted to play favorites three years ago, four years ago, two years ago, and I incorrect- and I did not make the adjustment this year, so that's on me.
6:45
You could say the same about your contest performance as well? It hasn't gone as well recently? That contest has been good. Oh, okay. So- You know, I mean, I mean, two years ago I finished 21st in Millions.
6:54
I- I- I got the piece of- of- of- yeah, I got the 400,000 from Survivor. I finished second in the Westgate Super Contest, um, the season win contest last year. Yeah.
7:04
And I'm in contention in the MLB season win contest, you know, this year. So, um, I, I mean, I can't, I can't complain. I did well in the VSiN NBA contest. Right. So, um, but, but, it's a great point,
7:17
I was in the VSiN College Football NFL, um, Invitational- Right... not once, but twice, and I sucked in that. I was, like, around 500 last year. Mm-hmm. And two years ago I was below 500.
7:30
So I mean, that was unheard of, for me to be that bad, um, in contests, like, back in, in, you know, the 2000s. So what's going on? I think I was a little lazy.
7:41
Played a, played some off numbers without really thinking about them that much. Should've examined that more. And I think the market's just gotten harder to beat. The combination of those two.
7:51
Um, maybe this isn't the proper segue have we ever- after we talked about a couple, uh, sideways performances from you as- in certain things.
7:57
But let's talk, let's get one college football play and one pro football play here. Uh, you have a first quarter under in the Georgia Tech/Colorado game. Is that right? Yeah.
8:07
And I think, I've- obviously Colorado a different team. Travis Hunter is gone. Sanders is gone.
8:12
They're not gonna be nearly as good, and they're gonna be much worse on offense, and the market understands that, and that total was, like, 55, and then I don't- I didn't check what it's down to, whether it's 50, um, for the game.
8:22
So I'm gonna play the first quarter under. I'm sure the 10 and a half's gone. Probably wouldn't get a 10 on... As long as we can get a 10 on first quarter under.
8:29
If there's another theme that I took away, was that these teams are just so conservative to start the year.
8:36
They're trying not to turn the ball over, make the big mistake right out of, um, the summer, and they're not, the offense- offenses are not just, um, struggling, but they're very conservative.
8:48
So we'll go first quarter under 10. Under 10. I- we- I see you had a 10 and a half minus 130, but that's not ra- roundly available. I'm- I'm guessing that it's not- Yeah... it's no longer available. Yeah.
8:57
I'm trying to be conservative and give out plays that people can actually bet. All right. Yeah. Here's one. Week One in the NFL, you like the Falcons as a dog against- Yeah, the Tampa-... the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah.
9:07
I, you know, I'm having an epiphany here. I'm thinking about this.
9:10
So last year Tampa Bay was supposed to win, eh, about be a 500 team, and it was the Falcons, they had that easy schedule, and their season win number was nine and a half to 10. Mm-hmm. Right?
9:19
The Falcons basically last year are what Tampa Bay is this year. All right? What they, uh, real high expectations. What has really changed? Well, Tampa had that great offensive year.
9:29
Bucky Irving, you know, was, became a stud running back, and Baker had a great year, and they had, uh, uh, their receivers were so good. But Tampa's injured, so, you know, Worser lineman is down.
9:40
Um, of course these guys are coming back. Godwin is injured. Um, McMillan is injured. Mike Evans is, like, 100, and they're gonna wanna get him 1,000.
9:49
He's, he's gonna set the NFL record for 1,000-yard seasons if he gets it this year. I think that's gonna hurt them.
9:54
I think they're gonna throw too much to Evans each and every week thinking in the back of their mind, "Oh, we love him. We'd love for him to get this record."
10:01
The bottom line is the m- the, if Penix is okay, I'm not sure that Tampa's any better than Atlanta, and Atlanta's home.
10:09
Atlanta's getting plus two and a half, and I would never, asymmetric risk, I would never, ever give out a plus two and a half minus 105. Why? 'Cause I can get a plus three potentially.
10:19
There's no way I'm gonna get a plus three. If, if, if a plus three pops up, like, there's, [laughs] like, people are gonna be, like, flying in from LA to bet plus three.
10:26
They're gonna go crazy because it, it, it has so much value. So bold prediction, this game will close pick 'em, and we can take plus two and a half reduce vig.
10:34
Uh, I'm on Atlanta as well, plus two and a half in that ballgame.
10:36
Uh, real quick with the, we flashed up on the screen that you were on Texas plus two, but you don't wanna, you're, you're not recommending that pl- obviously the line has moved now a bit- It, it-...
10:43
but you, you don't, you wouldn't come on and recommend it anymore. Why? Because it's not plus two anymore. Well, no, but I'm, but it sounded, I, obviously that point, but it, that's what I was saying before.
10:51
But it sounded like you just don't feel as strongly about the team either, it sounded like. Ooh, ooh. Let, so let me clarify that. I'm, I feel every bit as strong. Okay. I think that this is truly a 50/50 game. Okay.
11:03
So if I can get either team, I'll let the vagaries, this is my friend Leon, um, the eight of clubs method of betting, okay?
11:11
He's let the wind blow a line one way or another depending upon what syndicate likes what and who's betting the most money. If I can get Texas plus 107, I like Texas. If I can get Ohio State plus 105, I like Ohio State.
11:23
I truly feel it's a coin flip. It's close. It's a 50/50 game. Thus, when Texas was plus two, I like them. Okay. Thank you for the clarification, 'cause all fair it sounded a little different than that. Mm.
11:34
So, um, and Bob, by the way, I don't know if you heard this, he's got Texas three points better than Ohio State, but a trend takes him off this game. He does not play Texas against Ohio State. Fair enough.
11:43
He does not play it at all. More with Fezzik, a contest that he loves, survivor talk, and more. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:58
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12:07
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12:13
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12:25
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12:38
Uh, we have, uh, and we'll lead into questions from Fezzik here among these tweets, but let me get to these, uh, first. By the way, first of all, the first of the two tennis picks, Emma Raducanu with a no-show today.
12:48
She gets rolled by, uh, by Elena Rybakina. That doesn't even come close to hitting the over. Someone who watched that has got to, uh, tell me. I- I've got a few tweets about how Raducanu was just getting rolled in that.
12:59
That is completely out of the blue to me, so sorry about that one, guys. They can't all be winners. Uh, this is- Young Gil went four and one with a bunch of underdogs the day before, uh, I believe.
13:10
Three and two, and then three and one, yeah. Yep? Yeah. Well, you g- I got the point there. Thank you.
13:15
Sean Fox plays, "There ought to be a stat of expected completions given how good or poor the throw location was," oh, talking about the football previews.
13:21
"Everyone brings up wide receiver drops, but how many of those throws were actually catchable, as that guy has no idea where the ball is going when released?" Yeah, they try to be...
13:29
I know it's subjective to a point, but they try to be pretty detailed about what could have been a catch and what shouldn't. But you're right, there is some subjectivity, uh, involved in that.
13:39
Uh, Scott, New York Mets 16, "Mone in the middle lost on Kelly." I hear you, Gil. Thank you for that. Um, I'm glad someone picked up on it. Tom F., "You know what feels great heading into a long weekend?
13:49
Having a 26-year-old game-wrecking superstar traded out of your division. Would recommend all." Yeah, I don't mind that part, that's for sure. And then here are a few for, uh, young Steve Fezzik from our listeners.
14:00
Best listeners in the game, by the way. No doubt. This is, uh, this is from earlier in the show, Steve.
14:05
I wanna get to, uh, to the first one here because this, uh, this gentleman was the first one to ask about if you are just a... I'll, I'll give it in his words.
14:14
He goes, "Was Fezzik ever a sports fan, and does he enjoy watching sports, or is he just a human computer?" I became a computer right after I went to school and started studying all this probability and statistics.
14:26
I'm an, an actuary, which is just a math geek, all left-brained. But back when I was a kid in the '70s, Big Red Machine, you know, Tony Perez, m- greatest clutch hitter of all time. I brought him up earlier, yeah.
14:36
[laughs] Um, and you know, that, that lineup, Cesar Geronimo hit.308, batting eighth, and, and having, and being, like, the best center fielder in the league. Uh, that was the greatest lineup of all time.
14:47
You know what's interesting? They almost don't win any World Series. If they don't win that game seven- Yeah...
14:52
if Bill Lee doesn't throw the, um, the moon ball to Tony Perez, who homers to cut the lead from 3-0 to 3-2, the Reds lose that game, they trade Perez, and they never win a World Series. Crazy.
15:02
And how ma- and how many did they win in that stretch? Just two. They won '75 and '76- '75 and '76...
15:06
and then, um, Eric the Red won one for them fr- in 1989, you know, so- Beat the, beat the Red Sox in '75, Carlton Fisk famous homer in game six.
15:14
Beat the Yankees in '76, and then the A's, swept the A's, the big, bad A's, in 1990. Uh, yes. Yeah. Um, you know, but, but the one thing... So growing up in Cincinnati, that was just...
15:23
Uh, I, I, Dayton, uh, I was a enormous fan. And the Bengals, Bob Trumpy, Big Pete Johnson, you know, um- There you go. He's not just a human robot. Come on, now. He has, he has actual human emotions. Icky Woods.
15:33
[laughs] Okay, don't do the dance, Steve. [laughs] Don't do the dance. Chris Heath, uh, "Based on Fez's passion for '80s, '90s wrestling, I assume he's a fan of some other form of sports entertainment as well."
15:43
That's true. You're a big wrestling guy. And then Bama Sluggers, "Can you ask Fez if a 14 12-point teaser at minus 110 is a g- is a good option or not?" It could be.
15:53
Uh, a 12-point teaser, so you'd, you'd look to a 14 and a half. P- ties probably lose.
15:58
I haven't priced it, so I don't have the answer, but I would think the sweetest spot would, of course, be the 14 or 14 and a half point favorite, which you'd get down to, like, the minus two or minus two and a half.
16:08
Uh, okay, you, you briefly touched on this. I don't wanna gloss over it. Uh, Westgate has a contest in college football that you really love. Oh, I'm, I'm loving this. So college football, we've been waiting for this.
16:19
So their lines come out on Wednesday, and the deadline, crack, the deadline's today. Get our picks in. [laughs] So, like, I think it's 4:00 PM. Not sure. Don't quote me on that.
16:28
But, um, it's starting this week, and the market is needed $500, so the price is right, Ma. You know, you don't have to, you don't have to pay very much money. You can have up to 10 entries.
16:37
So I went ahead and, and got eight entries into the Westgate college football contest, and so, um, I will be submitting right around 2:00 PM today. Okay. Um, let's talk about your survivor strategy again.
16:49
I think we need to bring this up one more time. Yeah, so my pass posting strategy, but my goodness, um, I'm, I'm shocked that there's controversy about this, because there is controversy.
17:02
Um, there will be some people that will take the Eagles, who are now currently, like, laying minus 7.2, so the market did change a little, which is in my favor, to be fair, because the, the Eagles were, like, a 6.8 point favorite.
17:13
What I'm, what the heck is Fez talking, saying a team's minus 6.8, meaning there's sevens, but there were some six and a halves. Now there's sevens and some seven and a halves.
17:21
And b- because some people will take the Eagles, should the Eagles lose on Thursday night, when I wake up Friday morning, I don't know. I've incomplete and imperfect information, but you know what, young Gil? Yeah.
17:34
I am a former fellow in the Society of Actuaries. Yes, you are. And you know what actuaries do for a living? I know what they do. They take incomplete and imperfect information, and they make their best- Yeah...
17:43
wild guesses and estimates and projections based upon that. I think about 7%, 8% of the field will take the Eagles I could well be wrong. Well- It might only be 5%, might be 12%. What do you think? Let's say what you...
17:55
Let, let's talk about what you're referring to, 'cause I brought it up earlier in the week.
17:58
Mike Palm came on another show and, and sort of went, went after you, I'm, I'm not exaggerating about this, and said that you're wrong about so many things and that, uh, you can't be told you're wrong.
18:08
And I made the point earlier in the week, it's like, first of all, I don't know why he didn't just tell you that in person, but secondly, when I brought it up here, you and I talked about this when you first brought it up, and I said to you, I said very calmly, I said, "Well, Steve, it's probably not gonna be as big an advantage 'cause the Eagles are a Thanksgiving play, and, um- No doubt...
18:25
it's a loc- I said it's a locals advantage. And you- 100%... you immediately agreed with both of those points, right?
18:31
But what your poi- your point, the general point of what you're saying, as incremental as the edge might be, is a true point. And anybody who doesn't understand that, I don't know what to tell them.
18:42
You know, you know, there, there's a lot of things here, but I'm, I'm gonna summarize. O- uh, one, uh, Mike brings up some excellent, accurate points.
18:48
The, the, the dentist in South Dakota is gonna enter, he's entered Survivor six weeks ago. He, he can't enter more. He's, he's not gonna be able to fly back out here.
18:55
So the very, very vast majority of people are not gonna play more Survivors if the Eagles do indeed lose.
19:02
Secondly, the Eagles aren't attractive as a Survivor week one because you wanna save them for Christmas and you wanna save them for Thanksgiving. So that's gonna make fewer people on the Eagles.
19:12
Um, now, there are some people that are gonna wanna play the Eagles because if they lose, they can re-up. So there is a, um... But this is, Mike's c- totally correct.
19:20
It's a great point with in terms of people, um, that are in Vegas. It only applies to people in Vegas. Um, and he's 100% correct also in terms of in, it, it's very unclear how many people are gonna take the Eagles.
19:33
Now, I go back to I don't, I don't care about the, the, but, but, but I'm gonna... And, and one thing, I wanna thank Mike, because I am not self-aware nearly enough.
19:42
I had no idea- Well, well, we- I had no idea when I talked briefly with Mike... By the way, and I, I don't, I may have, uh, I never remember saying there'd be 25 million.
19:51
My point was just that there'd be a lot more people that will enter come Friday. Um, and maybe I should have clarified that, but I was totally self-aware that Mike was upset with me, so that's on me.
20:00
That's, I'm, I'm, I'm bad. I need to be better at self-awareness. I should have picked up on that. So that's, that's totally on me.
20:06
Um, but it doesn't take very many people to realize this, because even if only 3% of the people are actually in Vegas and are gonna enter more, guess what?
20:17
Those are gonna be three, the 3% of people that are gonna be like, "I'm only gonna play one Survivor. Now I'm gonna play 10, and I'm gonna sign up my wife, and I wanna play 20."
20:24
So in other words, I really feel that we will get 2,000 extra people who will sign up if the Eagles do lose. I could be wrong. Maybe it's only 1,000, maybe it's, it's, it, maybe it's 3,000. And I don't know.
20:36
He's, Mike's absolutely correct. I don't know how many people are gonna take the Eagles. I think it's gonna be around 8%. If I woke up on Friday morning and Derek Stevens came on and said, "What's the guarantee, Derek?"
20:46
And Derek said, "Well, we've reached the, the, there is gonna be no overlay, but I'm putting 8% more money into the pool," would that be attractive? Heck yes, that would be attractive. Mm-hmm.
20:55
I'm getting out my card and I'm signing up for 10, you know, Circa Survivors. This is, in my opinion, it's the same thing. If the Eagles lose, Derek's giving me 8% more money.
21:06
He might be giving me 10, he might be giving me six, he might be giving me 12. Mike's right. I don't know. But you know what?
21:11
I'm a math geek, and you put 9% extra money or 8% extra money into an overlay on a blackjack tournament, a craps tournament, or a sports betting contest, I'm gonna play a whole lot more. Well said.
21:22
And nobody's been more complimentary of Circa than you over time as well. It should be noted. I, you know, I, I love Circa.
21:26
I, and, and not only do I love Circa, like, like, I love, like, fireworks tonight up at the, um, the Legacy Club- [laughs] Man likes fireworks... the Circa Swim.
21:35
Um, Jeff Benson, the whole staff, the whole sportsbook, everything they do with contests. And, and, and, and in a, in a world in Vegas where the, the suits, uh, don't even connect anymore with the customers,
21:49
Derek Stevens has never been but, anything but fantastic with me, and with all, not just me, e- everyone and all his customers, and he truly roots for everybody to win, and that is just fantastic.
21:59
And he's a gambler himself, so I have nothing but great things to say about Circa and everything they're doing. Good for you, Steve.
22:07
Uh, real quick because we're gonna recap all the bets, Kansas, Wagner also a first-quarter under? Yes, if you can get 14 and a half, because the, the, you know, the one thing, this 14 is, like, so important on a quarter.
22:21
It's hard to score in college football to get over a 14 and a half. So, like, a little thing you can take away, I saw that on the screen, this was at DraftKings.
22:30
If you can, i- i- if, if you can get an under 14 and a half when the, when the total on a first quarter's, like, 14 at other places, boy, that's a good bet typically. All right. But not 14. 14 and a half.
22:40
Has to be 14 and a half. Okay. Come back, we'll recap all the bets. More with Steve Fezzik. It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:56
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23:28
And, you know, and shout out to a guy who really can't stand me, uh, Weston Stratton was, I believe, the winner of this Average Joe contest. And then he did great when he was in with the big boys and finished top five.
23:38
And so he's, he's not a fan of Fezzik, but he has done a great job in these contests. [laughs] And you know what? He can't stand you too? E- even if, yeah, sort of a, a...
23:48
I mean, e- even if someone's hypercritical of me, if they have a great performance and they make great points, I'm, I'll be complimentary. Torch D, the one who put the sad in your panties.
23:55
Can you ask Fezzik if he's ever been to Dorothy Lane Market? Yeah, so Dorothy Lane Market is on the corner of Kettering. It's in Dayton, Ohio, corner of Kettering and Oakwood.
24:04
It's kinda like a Whole Foods, overpriced, but I have a good story. In 18 seconds, there, there's a chess player named Bill Potter- Oh... who worked, he was, like, one of my cool friends. Oh, Bill Potter. Sure.
24:12
He was a chess player, and he used to rock like this. He, for two hours every game, he'd go like this. And I was a state runner-up in high school in chess, and I, I played him, like, my sophomore year, and he beat me.
24:21
He beat me so bad. He destroyed me. Wait, who was that other guy that beat you that you're talking about? David, well, Glick was a master. Oh, David Glick. So he was the best. But, but Bill Potter was cool.
24:30
He was, like, he was, he was cutting the meat at the Dorothy Lane Market. [laughs] And he played this obscure opening. I think it was, like, the Bird's Opening. And he just- Okay... blasted people with... Sorry.
24:38
[laughs] Hi, Bill. They don't know these people. David Glick, you don't wanna play him in chess. Don't, don't- Ugh... he's a chemistry- Oh... um, a, a, a professor now, and he was, like, a 2400.
24:47
So he's, like, almost a grand master. He's- David Glick, one, one of my people, I'm guessing? He's, he's a god. Yeah. You know? You know. Yeah.
24:54
Uh, Donnie Miller, "The Reds have a current nine-game World Series winning streak, haven't lost since the Fisk home run." [laughs] "Is this a record?
25:00
If so, it'll probably last forever 'cause the Reds are never getting back to the World Series again. Trust me, I have the scars to prove it." You think they can get in the playoffs?
25:07
I played the Reds under 82.5 because they had the hardest, like, strength of schedule, like, a month ago. And then Abbott and all their pitchers [laughs] are so good.
25:14
They're, I think they're not gonna make the playoffs, but I'm gonna lose my under 82.5. You, you jumped on my Cleveland Indian, uh, excuse, pardon me, Cleveland Guardians under. Uh, go away, Cleveland. Uh, you know what?
25:24
Good God. Look at that schedule. They're donezo. They're, uh- Oh, okay... they have such a difficult schedule. Stop doing that. I hate when you do Todd. Oh, Todd, yep. Hate when you do that.
25:31
Fam- famously, "No, we got this, Todd," and then- Don't say that out loud. Yes. You know? Stop. It's a winner. Um, there was another thing, [laughs] there was another thing about, uh, your strategy.
25:40
You wanna do Philly teasers for, for the first night? Yeah, so, um- As related to Survivor. Right. So you think about how many teasers I might play. Basic strategy, it's a long teaser.
25:49
Philly's laying seven and a half now against Dallas. So you play your Philly teasers, right? What happens, let's say you bet $300, all right? What, what, what happens if Philly loses? So now I'm like, "I'm down $300."
25:59
I could make the case of it's a paper win, all right?
26:02
You wanna get your $300 back, bang, just go sign up [laughs] for five, you know, survivors because, um, you, when, when they on, when they produce the summary, they're gonna say, "Your implied ticket value is worth $1,080- Mm-hmm...
26:16
because 8% of the field had Philly and they already lost," and maybe they reentered. Who cares if they do or not?
26:22
Everyone who enters, if Philly loses, when they wake up Friday morning, their $1,000 Survivor entry is gonna be worth maybe 1,060, maybe 1,090. It's just a, maybe 1,120 d- but it's just a paper valuation, however.
26:36
So it, it's like Wall Street. It's not a real gain, but you'll be getting back in equity what you lost. Speaking of teasers, can we talk about the death of the teaser?
26:45
I'm gonna talk about the, the life and death of a teaser. Okay. So the teasers, yes, teasers are dead. It's like Danny DeVito, other people's money. Don't blame me. I didn't kill them.
26:54
This company, these teasers are dead. Why? Because now DraftKings is charging -135. Yeah. 6 point NFL teaser. Oh. Here in Vegas, every single shop is charging more than -120.
27:07
Um, and, and they should be because they're, you, the players have an edge. Stanford Wong, Sharp Sports Betting, discussed all this.
27:16
I'm friends with Stanford, really like what he's doing, but, but there's a cautionary tale here. Teasers back in the year 2000 paid even money at some places.
27:25
So if you got on top of that, you could make a ton of money, but here's why you gotta do your own work and not just trust what people tell you.
27:32
I have a book here, brilliant man, David Skalansky, Mason Malmuth, How to Make 100K a Year Gambling for a Living.
27:38
In this book, and by the way, on the second page, uh, they mention David Skalansky's widely, um, regarded as the gambling authority on every gambling topic. When did this book come out? 1998 copy. Okay. All right?
27:50
I don't disagree with that statement, by the way. Um, I will quote you, and this shows you how you have to be careful. Skalansky writes, "Generally speaking, your inherent disadvantage when betting teasers is over 10%.
28:02
Because of this, there are better ways to invest your money." Total crap. Completely wrong. [laughs] Sorry. But, but, but, but- Spent...
28:10
but, and this is from the number one ga- and I'm, I, I'm sure, I'm sure David would be the first to say- You're like a prop comic now... "Hey, you know what?" Yeah.
28:18
"If, if, if, if you write 10 books, you're not gonna get everything right. I'm not gonna get everything right.
28:22
Hell, heck, I'm on a show for one hour and I'm gonna curse once, potty mouth, and just, and I'm gonna get things wrong. Everyone gets things wrong, so be careful out there."
28:30
Like, this truly is a guy that's, like, totally, how could he miss this? How could he not be aware? Because it's hard to be right about everything. Hard to be right about everything.
28:39
Um, if you had, we have a few more minutes with you. If you had, w- by the way, you have another book here. Let's not, I don't wanna miss, miss this. Oh, I got me, I got me the Warren Sharp War and Peace. Yeah.
28:50
All right? 2025 Football Preview from Warren. 600 pages. I'm gonna, I'm gonna tell everyone my favorite part of it. Okay. All right?
28:56
My favorite part is every team, he breaks down by seven categories and ranks them one through 32 by the coach, the quarterback, the running back, the wide receivers, the front seven on defense, and the secondary on defense.
29:09
I really like that part of the book, so I went through and I can't read this all. I don't have time. And- [laughs]... I made, I made that note, so now I can just, like, how good is Arizona's front seven?
29:20
They, uh, uh, how good are the Giants', you know, defensive front seven? It's like oh my gosh, they got all these beasts like Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy in their top five defensive line.
29:28
So I lo- that's what I personally love out of this book. Others will find other gems. Any, any other, uh, props, Gallagher, that you've brought to the set today? Or are those the only two?
29:36
No, this one I'm keeping though. This one you're keeping. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not throwing this one out. Not throwing it? Okay. By the way, nice hard copy of that. Usually, you know, I don't see those.
29:42
I see, like, a PDF. Oh, I'm, I'm, like, old, old school. Yeah, and thank you to Warren for sending that to me directly. Yeah. I only had to ask twice. Beautiful.
29:47
[laughs] Um- [laughs] Maybe he wanted you to buy it, Steve. Maybe that's what the hint was. [laughs] Oh. Um- Okay, last thing before you go because this is our last chance to talk to you before the NFL season begins.
29:59
You'll be with us on Fridays. Obviously, the NFL season begins Thursday night.
30:03
What is the, for, for new bettors, newish bettors who are super excited about football season, maybe they're in contests, maybe not, but they're obviously ready to bet football, give a, give a p- words of, you know, parting words of advice to those who as they set off on this football season.
30:21
So be careful about short-term runs. You might be eight and two, and like, "I'm dialed in, I'm gonna win," or, "I'm two and nine and I, I can't, I can't pick a winner to save my life." Most of this is just variance.
30:33
Uh, the number one trait I would say is look in terms of what you, what you bet and then look at what the closing number is. All right? If you're beating the closing number, it does not guarantee you're gonna win.
30:45
All right? But it is a good indication you're probably onto something and you have a better chance of winning. One thing I would be very careful about CLV, closing line value.
30:53
You hear, you hear all the time, "If you get CLV, you're gonna win." Well, you know what?
30:57
If you lay four and a half on a football game and it closes five, all right, you're getting CLV, but you're not getting enough to overcome the vig.
31:05
Remember that minus 110 is really hard to defeat, and now may- I'm gonna do this, my number one thing, be careful laying minus 115 and minus 120. We're seeing more and more of that, Gil, live wagering
31:17
and in team totals where you gotta hit minus 115, and now all of a sudden instead of having to hit that 52.4%, you need to hit, what is it, the 53.6% to break even? Okay.
31:27
But can I ask you a serious question when you bring that up? 'Cause I, I understand mathematically what you're saying- Yeah... and the actuary brain that you have.
31:34
But I'll even ask you, because I'll be the first person to say, "Yeah, but when live betting's happening, am I really that disciplined that I am,
31:44
you know, I am backing off if I see a qui-," you know, 'cause you gotta do this stuff quick anyway to begin with. Am I backing off as many bets as I should because of the number?
31:52
I will be the first person to tell you, "Come on, I'm not really." Are you? And, and- Do you? I am now because I had to because I had to pay some people because I lost live wagering. You know? Yeah. So I had to bet...
32:00
I, I, I basically printed money for years, and then I had like a, an 18-month period.
32:04
I looked at it and I'm like, "Oh my gosh, I just realized how much money I've lost live wagering after, after making so much money before," and is it because I couldn't pick more winners than losers?
32:14
No, it's because I'm paying like- Yeah... ah, I'm, I'm good at this. I can lay minus 125 and get away with it, and, and it's just really...
32:22
And I'm not saying there aren't really good bets at minus 145 or minus 185, it's just be more disciplined. And I totally understand you rationally.
32:28
I'm just saying, like if I'm being honest, th- let's call that a leak, right? Where I'm like, "Nope, I'm probably not gonna pay attention to it as much." What is the Steve Fezzik leak?
32:36
What is, what is your, you just said that you've had this but you're not, that's, that's not gonna be a thing for you anymore. What's another one? Um,
32:44
p- plugging forward too much with stuff I've won in the past and not evaluating whether I still have the same edge, you know? So doing- Right...
32:51
doing things that I've won in the past and just assuming that I'm gonna win going forward. Example, I always like season wins. I always like betting unders, and I have the edge. Why? Because the market is inflated.
33:01
They're a little bit too high, so I did this right. I, and the NFL, I, the average NFL season win number should be 8.4 because there can be ties. So not 8.5, 8.4. The average is still like 8.57, but I confirmed it.
33:13
I went in, set up my spreadsheets and said, "Hey, there is still this bias," instead of just plowing forward, you know, without doing the work.
33:21
The assessment between noise and signal there is a very difficult one 'cause you don't wanna overreact, right? Yes. But then at some point you have to acknowledge. Yes.
33:30
And, and, and having a core group of people, like we have that, that chat room to like, to, to, to discuss really helps as well to have people agree or disagree with you. All right. Steve Fezzik @FezzikSports.
33:40
Follow at your peril. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Coming back, we'll recap all the bets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Benham back in the hizzy. Hey. Hey. You did a lot of hey's today. That was your thing. Yeah. Hey, hey. Yeah. Different.
34:06
And creepy looks into the camera. Creepy looks into the camera. I just re-watched that, by the way. That's what- It was hilarious... that's what the ladies are here for. The best part was Gil- I would like to see it...
34:13
the, I'll just say the best part was Gil having no idea what was going on- [laughs] No idea... 'cause the, 'cause the music was rolling. We just didn't have the video. No idea.
34:20
Uh, let's recap all the bets from today's show, uh, beginning with my two tennis plays, one of which is already a loser, and it wasn't close, by the way. And if you're gonna lose, eh, just get beat bad.
34:30
Ooh, I forgot to make this bet. Uh, over 22 on the Raducanu-Rybakina match. Did not get close. Rybakina rolled her. I'd like to see highlights of that. Good God.
34:39
Raducanu not showing up for this one, and, uh, Rybakina announcing herself. One more today after what has been a tennis tear on the hard courts, Marketa Vondrousova minus 105 versus the adorable Jasmine Paolini.
34:54
Marketa Vondrousova, Kelly's favorite player. He's a big fan of her tattoos. I gotta make a be- I gotta get this bet in. This match starts soon. Starts soon. Well- Relatively soon... tennis time, 10:00 AM Pacific. Yeah.
35:03
Who knows? So, like, who knows? Who, who knows? If the court is available, the court's available. Sometime in the next hour most likely. Oh, by the way, I did have another play.
35:10
I bet the Padres most September wins plus 725. Yes, you did. They are not quite the short shot at Circa the Dodgers are, but it's, uh, I think at William Hill Caesars they were about plus 550.
35:23
Went through the, uh, schedule a little earlier. They don't play anybody, and it's a lot more home games, 16 to nine in favor of, uh, in ter- Padres have 25 games in September. 16 are at home.
35:34
Oh, did that move, or is this William Hill Caesars? No, this is Caesars Sportsbook. Oh, so there it is. Padres are the short shot at Caesars. I didn't even see they were short shot there, but I knew they were lower.
35:41
Plus 550 at Caesars. Um, schedule's super easy, and the Padres have a pretty dramatic home road split, and they're getting 16 of them at home.
35:49
They, I'm telling you, man, the, the, the hardest games that they play, hardest games that they play, um, are The Milwaukee Brewers for three and the Mets for three. And I'll, I'll throw in the Reds for three.
36:04
But I got- I get a Brewers victory... seven against the Rockies, three against the White Sox in there. Let's go. I like it.
36:11
I, it's not, I know it's not the sexiest number, but that's, that's who I'm going with to close out the season. You, sir. Trying to find a, my best Vondre Silva line available. Okay, I'll do that later.
36:20
Panthers under six and a half plus 120. I brought this up, uh, yesterday. Yeah, I don't know. This is one I was dancing around all summer, Gil. Trying, trying to respect all the love for the Panthers offense.
36:31
Just not completely sold on Bryce Young yet, and I think the defense is not being made enough of. I think it's still going to be a bottom five unit most likely in the NFL.
36:40
Um, and yeah, six and a half under at plus money. I, I'm in on that. And then I'm joining Falica. I, I was waiting to see if this was gonna get to three.
36:49
Couple shops just went to three on this game, uh, uh, Miami and Notre Dame. So I'm taking Miami plus three. Look at you. Him the Miami grad, me the Florida State grad. I will, I will, I will join you.
36:59
How, how do you feel about Alabama FSU, Mr. Florida State Grad? I have a feeling Florida State's gonna get rolled. Really? Uh, we'll see though. I hope they don't.
37:06
I hope old Castellanos, uh, is gonna be real, a lot better than what he was at Boston College and whatever other five schools he probably played for that I don't remember. But, uh, yeah, he talk, he talked some trash.
37:17
Hopefully he backs it up. I don't think he will. Steve Fezzik was here. Uh, he, he cannot recommend the Texas bet anymore 'cause he got the plus two, so it's not that anymore. He did send that to us though, right?
37:25
But he did send it to us. Okay. Yeah. Georgia Tech, Colorado, first quarter under 10 and a half, uh, is the first quarter under that he's playing today.
37:32
And then the Falcons week one, weeks, uh, week one Sunday, National Football League. Falcons plus two and a half against the Bucs, their division rivals. Um, all that brought to you by GBank. Do we have more?
37:42
We got more, right? Oh, we got more. Chris Falica was on, so-so was Paul Carr earlier. Paul Carr with three soccer plays, all totals. Saturday, Leeds, Newcastle over two and a half goals, and then Sunday two unders.
37:52
Nottingham Forest, West Ham under two and a half goals. Liverpool, Arsenal, the marquee matchup of the Prem this weekend, under two and a half goals. Uh, Christopher Falica, he's on his alma mater. The...
38:03
You, Miami Hurricanes plus two and a half is where he got the Canes against Notre Dame. And then he's on USC laying the wood minus 35 and a half. Gotta love college football. No compunction laying 35 and a half.
38:16
Oh, how great was it yesterday just having f- just seeing football on the television- Oh, man... was awesome. Well, and then you re- and- Football that matters... but then- Yeah...
38:24
but then it's like, it was like the same reaction to Stanford Hawaii. After like a quarter and a half you're like, "Oh my God, these teams suck." Well, well, yeah. Yeah. Um- Still nice to have on though.
38:33
It is still nice to have on. [laughs] Still nice to have on. It really begins in earnest tomorrow morning though for everybody.
38:38
Uh, by the way, O, my, my buddy, uh, O, has a, uh, workout with the Chargers today, Owen Wright. Hmm. Uh, and I told him, hey, I was like, "Are you excited?" He goes, "Oh, yeah." He goes, "But football all weekend."
38:49
I go, "He's an East Coast kid," right? I'm like, "Guess what? Ohio State, Texas, 9:00 AM." He, blew his mind. S- yeah, set your alarm clock. 'Cause nobody on the East Coast thinks about that. I, nobody does. Yeah. Yeah.
38:58
That's why, uh, that, that's why the, I give the slight pushback to... I, I like the earlier starts, don't get me wrong, but it's somewhere Mountain Time Zone's probably the best time zone for football. Hmm.
39:10
I don't know. Earlier the better. I love it here. Love it. But you might be right. Maybe that's a sweet spot. Uh, all of the best bets brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN.
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39:48
Apply now at vsin.com/gbank. That's vsin.com/gbank. Speaking of an hour, uh, later, you're talking about Mountain Time. Yes. Hour later from doing three-hour show now to get on a flight to, uh, San Francisco.
39:59
This is a, this is a- Uh-... peel the curtain back thing. I don't know how many p- Uh... how many people realize, Gil on Fridays outside of football season- Yeah... it's usually bounce to the airport.
40:08
Like, it is close out the show and that man is in the parking garage 45 seconds later. That's right. So the, we, we brought this up quick before we were coming back from break. I wanted to ask you about this.
40:20
So d- w- breaking this down for me, did you, did this mean you finally had to find a new flight? Yes.
40:27
Because Gil's also the master of I'm going to get to the airport with about 32 minutes to spare before my plane takes off. 30. Yeah, before it takes off. Yes. Before it takes off. Yeah. No, boarding's already started.
40:36
I have walked in while the door closes behind me into the, to the jetway many times. Yeah, I've done that once. I've also missed a flight out of, uh- Yeah, I-... Las Vegas 'cause I was just hanging out at the bar.
40:45
[laughs] You just, you're like, "Oh, it left. Sorry." Yeah. "I was doing things." And I was at the bar right across the other side. Yeah, no, I gotta, I gotta f- I gotta find a whole new flight and a whole new thing.
40:53
But I'm just gonna say this again. There is no advantage to having TSA anymore. Right. No advantage 'cause every human being has it now. The TSA line is longer than the actual line- Yeah, yeah...
41:03
for the, for the common folk. That's what it was like for me the couple times this past summer. But now the, uh, the facial recognition thing is available for some airlines in some airports.
41:10
Which again, some people are like, "Oh, you don't want them to have that." Trust me, they have it already from you being in- Right... you from checking into flights already. Just assume they have everything from me.
41:18
But even that is arbitrary. Sometimes they have it, sometimes they don't. So you, you try to like, "Oh, I got this, uh, facial recognition. I'll just roll in there." Like, "Sir, get out of line.
41:26
It's, there's none of that today." You're like, "Hey, you had it last time." That's the other thing with every security in every h- airline and every hotel and every terminal... Uh, hotel.
41:34
Every airport and every terminal, nothing is consistent. It's incredible. We- Nothing is consistent... me and you ta- have talked about the d- TSA stuff in detail. Yeah. You can, you can steal my job today if you want.
41:43
Remember five people out, you start yelling up ahead to the TSA guy, "Hey." "Computers out. What do we gotta take out? What do we gotta t-" And then at least two people are gonna thank you for asking You're that guy?
41:52
I'm that guy. I'm that guy. [laughs] That's great. I yell five people back. I'm like, "Hey, I gotta take my computer out or what?" I'd be like, "Let me guess, it's Bidlin in line," if I heard that.
41:59
Because we've talked about this before. The, the, the attitude these guys have of, like, "God, you guys are all idiots. How do you not know this by now? Take off your shoes. Put them in here. Take out your electronics."
42:10
Yeah. And then to the next airport you go to, they're like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. What are you doing? Put everything back in your bag and put it, slide the bag through." Yeah. Well, I've probably said this on air.
42:18
Have I ever told you about the low, the low tone argument I've had with TSA agents about when they- Yes. Yeah, I've said that on air. Wait, wait, wait, I think we did a whole segment- Did we? Okay, good, good...
42:25
on this like two months ago. I like that. Yeah. Uh, what, uh, what airl- uh, do you have to switch airlines? Had to switch airlines today, but I gotta work out. There's gotta be a regular flight that I gotta take out.
42:33
Anyway. Okay. How it affects our lives. I'm fascinated by this- Can we-... because Gil is the get to the airport last second guy, and I'm the guy who shows up way too early. You're that guy. Yeah.
42:41
I like hanging out at the airport. Before we, uh, before we leave, can we just shout out Crack again yesterday for, uh- Oh, it was awesome... for getting Matthew Boyer on the show.
42:50
Matthew is getting sentenced today for three different, uh, crimes, one of which was illegal bookmaking.
42:56
In case you missed it, we, uh, we threw up some videos on Twitter, and the full video, uh, the full interview is up as well on the VSAN feed on Twitter.
43:04
But, uh, Matthew Boyer, a day before his sentencing, was on the show yesterday, and it was all courtesy of Crack. I invite people to also check out Crack and John Orlando's Wisecracks podcast episode.
43:15
If you want a much more in-depth, uh, view of Matthew Boyer and his life, you can definitely go to that, 'cause Crack and John did a great job with that. That was e- extra riveting, beyond what we did yesterday.
43:26
Um, but it was super cool of, of Crack to facilitate that. It was super cool of Matt to be on the show. Yeah. And, um, we predicted correctly, right?
43:34
As soon as we threw the video up and he's like, "No, Shohei didn't, wasn't betting. Shohei might have known that, that his interpreter was betting, but Shohei himself wasn't betting."
43:42
As soon as we put that up, we correctly predicted. I, I, we should've, we should've laid, if we only could bet on these things, 10 fir- the first 10 tweets, "Ah, he, of course, he d- that's nonsense."
43:52
I didn't say nonsense, if you know what I mean. It's like, it's w- it's like my aliens w- thing we were talking about the other day. Yeah.
43:56
I don't, we have just gotten to a point in this country where you are, you, you finally believe in one thing, you are gonna stand- It's amazing... on that side to the very end, and nothing can convince you otherwise.
44:07
We see it in politics most, most clearly, right? It's, it's okay to learn and change your mind. It's okay. It really is. It really is. It's allowed. Permitted. Uh, we've done all we can do.
44:16
Uh, first week of, uh, three hours. Are you okay? We okay? Everything all right? Yeah. I had a blast. Yeah. Keep it rolling next week.
44:22
Prop Points next with John Hanson, followed by Money Moves with Stormy and JBT, and then Mitch and Paul later with Follow the Money. Enjoy from VSAN, the Sports Betting Network. Football. [upbeat music]
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