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Aug 2, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 2, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 2, 2024 | Hour 2
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Top of the hour, final hour, last hour, best hour here on the Numbers game. Jared in for Gil. One last hour of the week. Gil will be back next week. Kelly will not be.
0:17
Wyatt, you are, uh, you got a long row to hoe here, pal. Yeah, so, you know, when I- I went on a two-week vacation. [laughs] I came back. I had a week of a Numbers Game, and then I had three weeks of Sharp Money.
0:27
I got about maybe a week and a half off of producing, and now back in the saddle again. Do you sleep at all, or is that optional? Um, well, so here's the pro- I haven't slept much lately...
0:34
here's the problem, is, uh, there was a great game that came out, uh, maybe a couple weeks ago that I'm just, uh, really interested in. Oh. And that's college football.
0:42
And, uh, playing on Heisman- You're wasting all your time doing that. Yeah. Oh, no, it's a lot of fun.
0:45
But playing on Heisman, uh, Jared, I think if you were playing defensive line, you'd be able to sack me about six times, 'cause the offensive line play is just so bad. But- I just can't get involved with this game.
0:55
I love it. I don't have time. Love it. Like, I barely have time to do my own chores and do my own life, and now you want me to buy a $500 gaming console, sit down for hours, I mean, hours.
1:11
And I'm not knocking the people who have the time, I just don't know where you have the time. I, like, a- as an adult, I don't understand how you have more than an hour- This is-...
1:19
in the day to do anything besides- This is why I'm pounding Red Bulls [laughs] every morning. Yeah, see, that's the thing. Wyatt's not a morning person, 'cause he's up till 4:00 AM.
1:28
Actually, that's when you probably have to wake up for this show. Maybe you're up till 2:00 AM. Playing college football. What's your team in college football? Right now I am the head coach at Indiana.
1:36
[laughs] Are you enjoying your time in Bloomington? Uh, well, I can beat the bad teams. You can beat the bad teams. Which is, you know, like Minnesota and all those.
1:43
But, uh, trying to beat the Ohio States, Michigans, the Iowas. Actually, I did beat Iowa, but the, the rest- Congratulations... yeah, the, like Oregon, whatnot, I got smoked.
1:53
All right, speaking of those teams in the Big Ten, let's make a transition from the NFL to college. Let's talk about Wyatt's favorite conference, and my...
2:00
I guess it's my favorite conference, although I don't really play favorites anymore. Whatever conference makes me the most money, excuse me, is my favorite conference.
2:07
Um, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State currently at the top of the win total leaderboard. I don't think there's any surprises there.
2:14
I think the biggest surprise, maybe it's not a surprise if you consider the personnel switch, but I haven't seen Michigan with a single-digit win total in quite some time.
2:22
When was the last time you can recall them having a single-digit win total? Ooh, would, would it be about 2021, the year after, uh, Harbaugh, they, and then went two and four, and he had to take the pay cut?
2:32
It's possible, but I feel like even that year they had a 10.
2:35
That'd be the, that'd be the only one, and then after that you're probably going, like, you know, the Brady Hoke, Rich Rodriguez- 'Cause, yeah, because this is a, this is a solid...
2:42
Like, that probably was, like, nine and a half. This is a solid 8.75, right? It's a nine juice to the under.
2:49
So they are the clear-cut second tier in this conference this year, which again, I, I think i- if you've been watching Michigan football for the last few years, that might come as a surprise.
2:59
But let's be honest, Michigan is going through one of the biggest upheavals of, of any team has ever gone through.
3:04
I mean, when was the last time a team, um, you know, had a, a national championship season and then had to replace basically every major, uh, position? And, and quarterback, head coach, right?
3:15
Like, it, it's a lot to fill. I would say not head coach. That one we'll take it out. But maybe LSU when they had- When they had Burrow. Yeah. Yeah, I don't, I think- Well, 'cause the next year-...
3:24
Orgeron was there the next year. Yeah, 'cause well, the next year was COVID. I can't remember, uh, who- The next year was COVID, which is kind of an asterisk... who, uh, somebody, somebody opted out that was...
3:31
I don't know if it was- Was it- I think it was Chase that opted out. Yeah... J.J. that opted out? It was Chase. Yeah. Yeah. I, I think, um, I think there's a, uh, there's a certain element to Michigan- Mm-hmm... that
3:42
I don't wanna run to fade them, but I'll be honest, there's... And I'll let you kinda give me the, give me the, uh, the handicap on, on Orgy, right? You know, that's the key.
3:53
If, if he's a star, I could see them winning 10 games this year. What do you think? Re- really, well, the, the big thing we know about Alex Orgy is Michigan used him in the running game. Yeah.
4:02
So he has the athleticism to scramble out. He hasn't really had a lot of passing attempts, so that's gonna be the big question mark for him.
4:10
And, you know, just losing so many offensive talents like a Blake Corum, Cornelius Johnson, Roman Wilson. Uh, I think the big thing to have back is a Donovan Edwards, I think will have hopefully a bounce back year.
4:21
Really struggled minus the national championship game. And then you've got really, I s- I would say the safety blanket of the offense is Coleson Loveland.
4:29
The one thing I will say, Jared, that helps Michigan out is what happens when a head coach leaves? You just... I- it is a madhouse in the transfer portal.
4:37
The, the good thing that Michigan did was, and the smart thing, was that they hired Tron Moore, or they, uh, promoted Tron Moore- Yeah... to be the head coach. Continuity. Yeah.
4:46
There wasn't that many people that entered the portal. In fact, Michigan had one guy enter the portal- Come out... go to Ole Miss, play spring ball, and then come- Yeah... back to Michigan, which I've never seen before.
4:55
So I think that was the key, is that they didn't, they didn't get wiped out in the transfer portal. I think the defense is gonna be really good again.
5:02
Um, they're going- With Martell leading the way, I'm excited for that. Yeah. I, I, I think the, the thing about Michigan, and, and listen, the schedule's tough, right? The non-conference Texas is tough.
5:12
That's a tough game. I know it's at home, but it's still a, I would say a national title contender, even though you might argue how really, you know, what their chops might be.
5:20
But they were a team last year that obviously competed at a high level, and now they're in the SEC, and they're gonna wanna get a win under their belt before they have to go play that SEC schedule. Mm-hmm.
5:28
And then you get home games against Fresno and Arkansas State. So y- I think 3-0 is very much a possibility. And then you face USC at home, Minnesota.
5:37
You go to Washington, who's got a ton of, you know, issues on their own, right? They lost their head coach, OC, everybody, quarterback. Then you get the bye. Then at Illinois, Michigan State.
5:46
And then you host Oregon, at Indiana, bye, Northwestern, at Ohio State. I'll be honest, I see one game where they're a dog. I, uh, you know, at, at Ohio State. Ooh, not the Oregon game?
5:56
I would say- At, at home I'd say it's closer to a pick 'em probably. But yeah, they might be a slight dog, but it's not gonna be like they're a four, five, six point underdog at home to anybody.
6:04
Um, unless Oregon is just this high-flying machine, um, I- And you do kind of sandwich that game around Michigan State and a road trip to Indiana, which is not a look-ahead spot in any capacity. But
6:17
maybe the Michigan State game takes its toll and you come in flat against Oregon.
6:22
But again, at the Big House, that's Oregon's, is, I'm assuming it's their first ever trip to The Big House, if not the first trip in many years. No, it, uh, it'll be their first trip since 2007.
6:31
And how I know that- So it's a long time. [laughs]... it was the, it was the week after the Appalachian State game. [laughs] Oh, that's right. And Michigan got killed that game. So- That's right...
6:39
it, it was a rough start to the year. That's right. Wasn't that the Chip Kelly Oregon team? Ooh, '07? I don't know if it was Chip Kelly. Let me double-check on that one.
6:46
But regardless, it's Oregon's first trip to the Big House, A, as a member of the Big 10, B, in the last two decades where it really matters any personnel is the same. He was the OC. He was the OC.
6:57
I'm, I'm drawing a blank on now who the head coach was. I think it, it starts with a B. I don't remember. It's like Mike Bl- Blatti, I think is his name. Mike Bloati makes sense. Yeah.
7:04
Yeah, I thi- that name sounds familiar. Um, I think, I think I'm a little higher on Michigan than most. I think I would bet the over on their nine. I, I, again, I think the Texas game is kind of the decider.
7:17
If they win that game, I don't know what the odds are. I'm assuming the odds are up now for that Texas game. I would bet Texas is maybe a, a slight favorite, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was a pick 'em.
7:26
To me, that's the game. If you beat Texas week two at home, I think you get to 10 wins. I really do. Texas, Texas right now on DraftKings minus three and a half point favorite. That's okay. So that's, that's the game.
7:35
That's the game right there. And again, three and a half, it, it's, it's a significant spread. Obviously anything more north of the field goal, but it's not 13 and a half. Mm-hmm.
7:44
I think obviously there's gonna be a lot of love for Michigan in that game, um, especially as a home dog. I mean, how often is Michigan as a home dog?
7:51
I mean, that just, [laughs] this doesn't happen very often, not anytime in recent memory.
7:54
So, um, there's certainly, u- unless it's Ohio State, there, there's certainly some upside I think with, with, with Michigan's schedule a- and with their win total.
8:03
Because again, you could drop the game at, against Texas, you could drop the game at Ohio State, you could still go 10 and two, and you could still go over this win total.
8:11
In order for- You could probably still make the na- uh, college football playoff. We st- we don't know- That number's probably north of two to one. Yeah. You don't know w-
8:18
w- how many losses is really gonna take a team out of the playoff. I think in the Big 10 it's three. I think in the SEC you can still get in with three.
8:25
I think the Big 10's gonna be hard-pressed to get a team with three losses in, unless it's an unprecedented situation where you have multiple teams with three losses, right?
8:33
And it's like you're gonna have to pick one of them as an at large. Um, but I would not be shocked if a team with three losses got in in either the Big 10 or the SEC.
8:43
The SEC, I think we will see a team with three losses get in. I do. Um, I think the one thing I've noticed over the last few years with college football with the transfer portal, it's just a lot more balanced.
8:53
Lot, a lot more teams in the mid tier that are competing with the higher tier, and the higher tier teams are struggling to keep some of these players because they're not playing and they're going to teams where they are gonna play.
9:04
And there's a lot, there's a lot of changes in college football. And when you see significant moves, Michigan is still Michigan. They still have an elite home field advantage, and they still have a very talented roster.
9:16
And you are getting a discount on the Wolverines this year, more so than we have gotten in this recent run. I- And that game against Texas is gonna deci- if they beat Texas week two, they are going over their win total.
9:26
I would say also another thing, Jared, to just keep an eye out for, Michigan is replacing almost everybody on the offensive line. I think there's one guy- That's big... that does have starting experience.
9:35
So that's gonna be a big question mark. That will be a big question.
9:37
That's why I said yesterday the August 31st game against Fresno State is just gonna be so key that they just kind of build the momentum and find, find out the right system and h- you know, what worked and what didn't, and if Alex Orji is going to be, uh, the future for, for Michigan.
9:52
I feel really good about Penn State winning 9 or 10 games this year. They're not gonna win 11. They're definitely not gonna win 12.
9:58
There are bets to make in these markets where you can bet on Penn State to win exactly nine games. I would, that's a bet I would consider making. Um, same thing with 10.
10:08
Like I, I, I think, y- you know, go to, if you guys wanna pull up Penn State's schedule, it, they are very consistent with beating the teams that they should beat and losing to the teams that they should lose to.
10:19
That is the one thing about Penn State that has been highly consistent over the years.
10:23
They beat everyone else on their schedule outside of Michigan and Ohio State, and it just seems to be what they do every year, and I don't think it's gonna be any different this year.
10:30
I, I think they go in, I, I think they beat USC on the road. I think they probably, probably lose to Ohio State at home, even though that game could be tighter than, than we expect. But
10:43
I, I, to me 10 wins seems very likely. I think you can get Penn State exactly at 10 wins at, like, three to one.
10:49
And, and I think the key now with these win totals is, and with these super conferences, what is your non-conference looking like? Well, Penn State's pretty simple- Yeah... to be perfectly honest with you.
10:58
I would say- West Virginia, I know that game West Virginia's tough, but th- they should beat West Virginia. And you know, should s- just stomp Bowling Green and Penn State.
11:03
They're like a two touchdown favorite in that game. Yeah. So right then and there, you've got 3-0.
11:09
Where are you gonna find hopefully maybe eight more wins for Penn State, or you're saying- They're gonna be big dog, big favorites in every single game.
11:15
Every single game on that schedule minus the game against Ohio State and at USC, they are gonna be at least a three-point favorite. I mean, I, th- there's really no way around it.
11:25
Um, the rest of the Big 10 I don't think is very good this year, and they only play the two top teams.
11:30
They only play Ohio State, and even USC who I think is gonna take a, a step back without their situation at quarterback.
11:35
So I think honestly, I think 10 wins is very much in the real spectrum, and you can bet that at three to one.
11:41
I, I, I might dabble with some exact wins this year, um, for some of these Big 10 teams, 'cause I do think the margin's pretty thin.
11:47
All right, we'll come back on the other side, talk a little bit more football here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on BSX Sports Betting Network College football is almost here.
12:03
Go get the betting guide right now by subscribing to become a VSiN Pro Access human. Um, yeah, I flubbed that last line, but it's okay.
12:12
You can sign up today, receive both the college football and NFL betting guides, plus VSiN Pro Access to our daily pro picks 24/7 video and exclusive data, like the betting splits.
12:20
You can see all the subscription optin- options at vsin.com/subscribe. Yikes, can you read, Jared? It's Friday. Uh, see what plan works for you, uh, vsin.com/subscribe.
12:28
So we get these reads, um, and we change the copy, obviously, um, most days, because it's boring to do the same copy every day.
12:35
And, and me being the polished, experienced broadcaster that I am, try to, you know, make it a little bit more exciting than the actual read.
12:44
And more often than not, [laughs] I twist myself into a word pretzel, um, trying to make these reads a little bit more, um [laughs], interesting than they really are.
12:53
But the gist of it is just go subscribe 'cause the college football betting guide's out now. I had one, it was a local company here called Tough Turtle Turf. Oh yeah, good luck with that one.
13:01
And you're trying to say that, like, three times, and it's like, towards the end, you're like, "Oh my God, I sounds like I can't speak."
13:06
'Cause we've said these re- we, you know, we've, we've done these reads so much, and we've been talking about the guides that are out. And, and by the way, like, uh, we, we, we, we make fun of it and we joke about it.
13:14
It's one of the mundane parts of our, of our job is to do reads. You know, you're basically just reading off a sheet of paper, and your job is to make it sound way more exciting, make the words jump off the page.
13:25
So I try to ad lib some of the reads sometimes. Sometimes it goes great, sometimes it goes poorly. That was one of the examples where it went poorly.
13:31
Hopefully they don't stash that in the back for my, uh, blooper reel one day. All right, speaking of bloopers, um, not gonna be too many bloopers in the AFC this year. No layups in the AFC this year.
13:41
It is hands down the tougher conference. I don't think it's even close.
13:45
The best quarterbacks, the best teams, the reigning Super Bowl champ back to back, and of course, a bevy, just a plethora of contenders trying to dethrone the Chiefs this year. I will start with some negative.
14:01
The negative, of course, coming in the news department from the Chargers yesterday. We heard that Justin Herbert is gonna be in a walking boot for, good luck figuring out how many weeks.
14:13
Hopefully, he will start the season. I don't know exactly what the injury was. Uh, we have it right here. Foot. Yeah, thank you. Plantar fascia in the foot. I never know what injury it is. He's in a walking boot.
14:23
He can't practice. He can't play. Expected to start the season. Not will be. The expectation is he will be ready for the start of the season. Well,
14:38
that wording is difficult to swallow, I think, if you're a Chargers fan, right? Yeah, I mean, with, with the news, what happened with Herbert last year- Yes...
14:47
uh, not being able to finish out the year, the big thing with him is can he stay healthy? Um, also to Charger fans is, uh, love and respect Jim Harbaugh, but he ain't gonna tell you anything on, uh, injuries.
14:57
You're, you're gonna hear a lot of, and he, and he even said it too, uh, "I will give my best medical advice," which is u- just usually he's working through something.
15:05
So you'll never get a, a clear answer from him, but- What's your vibe? You know, you have a very unique perspective of Harbaugh. What's your vibe with him year one with the Chargers? You think it's gonna go well?
15:14
I know people are saying he's gotta rebuild the team and whatnot, but if you remember the, the 49ers when he took over, they were historically bad for about a decade.
15:23
And first year, Alex Smith, I mean, they're going to the NFC Championship game. They are a couple month- months away from going to the Super Bowl.
15:29
So i- if, if there's anybody that knows how to win right away, it is Jim Harbaugh. Now, obviously, you want your starting quarterback to be healthy, but I think he's just gonna add that toughness to the Chargers.
15:40
They are going to love to run the ball and, you know, he, he has this weird aura around him- He does... that just people just find a way to, to be motivated and play for him.
15:51
So I think the Chargers will be better than expected. I would say maybe a fringe playoff team, but then again, also when you have,
16:00
I might be eating my words here a little bit and s- people might get mad, but I think Justin Herbert is in an elite tier status.
16:07
He can do some, you know, if he plays to that level, Chargers have a, have a chance to make the playoffs. But as you said, this is a tough AFC.
16:14
And the one thing that does concern me with the Chargers is, uh, just the lack of, like, go-to receivers. I think we, I've seen a lot- Well, Keenan Allen's gone. Mike Williams- Yeah... is gone.
16:23
And Quinton Johnson, the, the- Perennially hurt. Yeah, and, but he's been struggling just catching the ball. I mean- Yeah, I saw that... his rookie year, he had a lot of just big moments.
16:31
I mean, he had a game, uh, one in the Packer game where he, Herbert dropped a dime to him. It would've, he would've still been running. It would've been the go-ahead touchdown.
16:37
He dropped it, so I, I think that's probably the biggest question marks with the Chargers is just the, the skill position. Yeah, so right now you can bet the Chargers at plus money to make the playoffs.
16:49
You can also bet them at 3/1 to be a wildcard seed. I mean, let's be honest here, people. You're not, are, are you really upending the Chiefs? Like, of all the divisions in the NFL,
16:59
if you close your eyes for a minute, and this might sound weird, but I really do this in my home. Usually I light candles, and I kinda, you know, play some Enya.
17:08
Close my eyes, and I picture, visualize, manifest who's gonna be on the, on the podium at the end of the year hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, and then I work backwards from that.
17:17
All right, if it's the Chiefs, then they're probably gonna win the division, right? I do think the Chiefs are gonna win the Super Bowl again this year.
17:22
I think Chiefs and Eagles are kinda my Super Bowl pick where I'm at right now at this early stage. I think there's a, I think that will be a really tight game, tight number, just like it was two years ago.
17:30
But I do think it is Chiefs and Eagles. So if I'm closing my eyes and I'm envisioning the Chiefs, uh, uh, at the Super Bowl in New Orleans, I believe, this year, right? New Orleans.
17:40
Um, obviously, I feel passionately about them winning the division. I am- Right, there you go. Enya. I'm envisioning Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers. Got it. Thank you, sir.
17:47
Well, see, no, what you're doing is you're hoping. You're wishing. Gotcha. What I do is I close my eyes and I let my spirit- I don't, I don't-... tell me who's gonna win. I don't have the lovely candles.
17:55
I don't use my bias, my, my in-baked bias for my team. Like, for example, it ain't the Jets when I close my eyes and picture- [laughs]... picture who's gonna be at the end of the rainbow here. Um, but my point being-
18:08
Unlike the NFC North, which I feel very strongly about the Lions, other people might push back and say the Packers are the best team in that division. That's fine, I'm not gonna argue with you.
18:16
I think you're wrong, but I'm not gonna argue with you, because I think that's fair. It's really hard to make the argument that the Chargers are better than Chiefs.
18:24
It's really hard to make the argument that the Chiefs are not gonna win the AFC West.
18:29
So if that's where we're starting here, if we're already starting on the foot of, if there's one certainty in this NFL season, barring injury of course to Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are gonna win their division.
18:39
They win it every year. I-I- if we go back last year, we th- we thought probably that was the worst Chiefs team that we've seen in a while. Still won the division going away.
18:45
They still won the division, they still won the Super Bowl. They're at the point now, like the Patriots a- and some other great dynasties in sports, it's like I'll, I'll believe it when I see it when they're done.
18:55
They're minus 230 to win the division. Yeah. They're by far the biggest favorite to win the division. So if we are certain,
19:02
as certain as we can be in the sports betting space, that Kansas City is going to win the AFC West, well, why wouldn't you bet the Chargers plus 300 in this market?
19:12
Because they're basically a coin flip to make the playoffs, right? Plus 115 to make the playoffs. Here's what I wouldn't do on the Chargers. For the love of God, don't bet over eight and a half wins, lay 50 cents.
19:23
If they win nine games, they're probably in the playoffs. Probably, maybe not, but I would say decent chance they are. So why would you bet over nine win- over eight and a half wins at minus 155 when you can bet
19:36
multiple options, plus 115 to make the playoffs, three to one to be a wildcard seed. All of those choices, I believe, are better than the option of over eight and a half wins at minus 155.
19:47
Because I just, you know, laying 50 cents on a pre-flop win total is just, I, I think you're asking, you're asking for trouble. So that's where I'm at with the Chargers in the AFC.
19:56
I absolutely would consider them in this market to be a wildcard seed. Because of all the teams on this list, if we wanna put the list on your screen, of all the teams on this list, and I'm
20:06
not putting the Raiders in this discussion, 'cause let's be honest, I, I don't see them making the playoffs this year. But of all the teams on this list, is there a team
20:15
that you're more certain about if they make the playoffs, they have to be a wildcard team than the Chargers? I could see the Bengals easily winning that division this year. I could see the Dolphins winning the AFC East.
20:26
Probably not, but I could see it. That's why you're seeing Dolphins, Jets, Bills all priced the same. What about the, uh, Jaguars? I mean, if they make the playoffs, I
20:36
think- I mean, everybody's really high on the Texans. Yeah, you're getting a good number there, plus 450. That's not a bad look. W- what's the Jaguars number to make the playoffs?
20:43
I think a good, h- honestly, I think a good gauge for you in this market is to compare these odds to what the team is to make the playoffs, and then the next step, the final step is, can this team win the division?
20:57
They're plus 130 to make the playoffs, so while that's obviously an underdog price, what is it, like 45-ish percent? It ain't plus 450, and to your point,
21:10
when I close my eyes and do my Enya exercise, do I see the Texans as the division champs? I, I kinda do. Like, I kinda think what Houston is building there is kinda like what I...
21:22
In fact, really good comparison, actually. Maybe the quarterback age is a difference, but Houston and Detroit, very similar tiers for me. Both teams are right on the cusp of greatness.
21:35
They're one push away from being in the Super Bowl. Both teams have elite offensive minds, Slowik and Johnson. I'd say the quarterback discrepancy is a debate.
21:46
I think Goff has way more experience, probably not as talented upside, but probably a higher floor 'cause of his experience.
21:53
Whereas Stroud, I think more upside, but maybe a lower floor, 'cause he just hasn't done it as much. They're both kinda the same team in different conferences.
22:03
Like, they both should win their division, they both should be a top four seed, they both had success last year, and they're both returning pretty much everybody.
22:10
In fact, I would say the Texans got significantly better with Stefon Diggs. So yeah, I, I think the Jaguars would be a team I would bet in this market. So are the Chargers.
22:20
'Cause I just don't see those teams winning their division, and that's where I think you have to make the distinction. Can you make the playoffs? Yeah, the odds are saying you can. Can you win the division?
22:29
[sighs] Detroit, Houston, to me, those are the teams at the top of their division that should command a significant part of your attention. Always commanding our attention is Jeff Erickson from Rotowire.
22:41
He's next on A Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. All right, final 30 minutes of the show here.
22:55
Very excited to be joined by this gentleman, senior editor at Rotowire.
22:59
Uh, haven't had a chance to catch up with him in a minute, so we're gonna, uh, uh, wax poetic about the baseball trade deadline and everything that we'll see down the stretch here, uh, heading to October.
23:07
He is Jeff Erickson, senior editor at Rotowire, joining us via the Progressive Guest Line. All right, Jeff, I'll, I'll give you a moment here before we get into some of the, the, you know, the future stuff.
23:16
Um, what happened at the deadline? Is there a team that really got better, and is there a team that was like, "Eh, I kinda was hoping you would do more"?
23:25
Uh, I think the Yankees and Padres both have to be pretty happy with what they did. Uh, you know, the Padres, I mean, I think it's an incredible story. They traded away Juan Soto in the off-season.
23:34
Their principal owner passed away. He was the driving force be- be- behind them trying to push for that in the first place. They've lost Yu Darvish. They've lost Joe Musgrove.
23:43
Tatis has been out for a long time, and yet they're going on this big run. So they traded for Dylan Cease at the start of the season. That was a huge trade that's worked out really well for them.
23:51
They traded for Arraez, and now they added again at the deadline. I love it. It's no longer a small market.
23:57
This is a team that i- is getting well-supported, 33 sellouts, uh, an all-time attendance high on Wednesday against the Dodgers at Petco. Um, this, I, I love stories like this.
24:07
I love them overcoming some adversity and seeing that, seeing what they were able to do with that there. So kudos to them. Yankees, Jess Chisholm was a perfect fit- Yeah Absolutely perfect.
24:17
Left-handed bat, can play multiple positions. He's willing to play third, Gleyber isn't. Good on him for that. Uh, y- you can see he's got an energy again. He, he's excited to play for this team. It, it, it's great.
24:28
Um, I would've liked to seen, uh, the Red Sox do a little bit more. I think the Dodgers had this... I think they s- kind of settled for Flaherty. I don't know if settled's the right term, but we'll see what sort of...
24:38
I- if that back injury, uh, that was rumored is a problem at all. Uh, if it's fine, then they did fine, um, 'cause that's w- exactly what they needed is a playoff starter.
24:47
I'm not sure the O's did the right thing there going out and getting, uh, Trevor Rogers and the price they paid for him. Yeah. Especially when you see what the Dodgers paid for Flaherty.
24:55
Yeah, I, so I, I have a bet on Baltimore to win the A, uh, the AFC East. [laughs] Yeah. I'm not... We're... You can tell what mode I'm in, Jeff. It's all in the brain right now. It's all in the brain right now.
25:05
It's all good. That Baltimore actually would be the... It would technically be, I guess, the, uh... No, it'd be the AFC East. Yeah, that'd be the right, that would be the right division there.
25:11
Um, I, I have a bet on them to win the American League East, and I, I feel very confident that the price is good. I got plus 155, like, right- Mm-hmm...
25:19
when they were kind of making that ascent and the Yankees were kind of falling back.
25:22
But now that I've kind of recalibrated here post-deadline, I kind of think I'm on the wrong side of this, because I, I do believe the Yankees, as you mentioned, got significantly better, where the Orioles, I think the Orioles, as good as they've been throughout the course of the season, now are starting to hit that wall offensively.
25:41
They hadn't hit that offensive wall until very recently, and a lot of these guys are kind of taking a little bit of a step back at the plate. And as you mentioned, Trevor Rogers isn't gonna give them any immediate help.
25:49
I think the rest of that rotation, besides Corbin Burnes, certainly leaves a lot to be desired.
25:54
Down the stretch of the season, if you had to pick, and the odds right now are kind of in that coin flip range still, Baltimore or New York, they're pretty much tied at the top of the AL East.
26:03
You think the Yankees are better suited now, the final 60 days of the season? If I'm getting the same price, I'm probably taking the Yankees. Uh, I don't like that the We- uh, Orioles just lost Jordan Westburg. Yeah.
26:12
I think that's a really tough loss. Uh, I don't know if I love the Eloy acquisition, especially 'cause that meant that Heston Kjerstad just got sent down.
26:20
I think Koby Mayo is a guy that could get called up and can make a difference possibly. We'll see what happens with Jackson Holliday. He can in, uh, infuse a lot of life into that offense.
26:28
A lot's were kind of riding on, like, Zach Eflin becoming a solid number three for this team. I, I think that's gonna be one that I'm really watching closely. And of course, in the playoffs, can he be a playoff starter?
26:38
I think he can. Uh, I, I think that's a key acquisition for this team. So we'll see, uh, what happens there.
26:44
But Adley Rutschman, if you've paid attention what he's been doing the last six to eight weeks, it's been kind of rough. Yeah. I wonder if he's wearing down a little bit- Yep...
26:50
or if this is just one of those ebbs and flows of a season. I- if it's the latter, then I think they'll be fine.
26:55
Uh, I think there's, there's often value in kind of going contrarian a- against what the trend is right now.
27:01
Look at pre-season there, where the Brewers were a good value b- after the Corbin Burnes trade, 'cause everybody overreacted to that deal. Yep.
27:07
Um, I think it's possible that you could see something like that with the Orioles.
27:10
If it continues to g- if you get a b- if you get a plus price on them, a better pr- plus price on them, I, I, I might jump back on the train.
27:17
Yeah, I, I think where I'm at with the Yankees right now, it's the August schedule is a, is a cinch. I mean, I bet them, I took a little piece of them to have the most wins in August. I mean, it's- Mm-hmm...
27:25
Toronto, it's the Angels, it's the Rangers, White Sox, Tigers, the Guardians, tough series, then Colorado, Washington, St. Louis, whereas Baltimore has a significantly tougher schedule. Yeah.
27:34
Seven straight to start the month. Four at Cleveland, who's, you know, besides the Yankees and the Orioles, probably the best team in the American League, especially that pitching rotation.
27:43
Then they finish that road trip at Tampa, who obviously is a bottom-feeder and a seller. Then you get Washington, Boston, three at the Mets, Houston, Dodgers, Rockies.
27:51
So August is gonna be a really tough road to hoe for this Orioles team.
27:56
If they can get to September 1st still relatively even in the standings, I think they can make a push, but I do think the Yankees will, um, have that top spot heading into the final month of the year.
28:07
All right, let's go to the National League. Uh, because you mentioned the Padres, do you think there is still a chance that they can come back and win that division? 'Cause right now the odds are kind of telling you no.
28:16
The Dodgers obviously eat up a ton of equity in this market because they're the Dodgers. But that- Sure... lead at the top of the NL West is a little tighter than maybe we think, Jeff.
28:25
Yeah, I, but we also kind of caught the Dodgers at their worst. Their first losing month since 2018, I think, uh, where they went 11 and 13 in July.
28:32
I think it's easy to kind of look in in that line and say, "Oh yeah, they're in trouble."
28:35
I did have, uh, Jeff Spiegel from Dodger Heads, uh, the great, uh, YouTube podcast that they do, uh, p- podcast and post-game show. I had him on our show yesterday and talking about all their various issues.
28:46
And they're getting so many players coming back. Yeah. And I think, you know, Mookie coming back, obviously Freddie's away from the team right now.
28:52
The pitching, they have to figure out the pitching, and that's why they went and they got Flaherty. Kershaw's start on Wednesday was terrible. He didn't, he only generated two swings and misses, no strikeouts.
29:00
Um, can they get anything from him in the playoffs? I think that's a big concern. It's still four and a half games, if I recall correctly. Yep. Yeah, four and a half. Um, and
29:09
I, I think there, there's a, there's a chance. Four and a half has been caught many times before. Sure.
29:13
Um, I think it's still likely that we're gonna see the Dodgers in the future, but, uh, you know, they, they gotta get, they gotta get these players back. Max Mun- Max Muncy had a breakthrough yes- this week.
29:23
Uh, went to see a chiropractor, and that was better than all the other doctors c- combined so far. When it turn, when it comes to that oblique, he's able to swing a bat again.
29:30
We'll see if that's fool's gold or if that's a short-term blip or if he's finally on the way to recovery. I think getting him back in the lineup is actually huge. This, this lineup has been shortened.
29:39
You know, it's, it was a top five, then it's a top four, then a top three, and meanwhile the bottom half of the lineup has really struggled this year.
29:45
Uh, Gavin Lux finally starting to hit, but, you know, you look at what Outman and countless others in center field have done this year, and it's been really disappointing. Chris Taylor's been a disaster.
29:55
Jason Heyward is just Jason Heyward. We know what he can do. Um, they need to lengthen that lineup back up again and become the force that it's been. I, I think they'll be okay, but they got a lot of ifs, if you will.
30:04
Mm. Yeah, I, I, I think at the end of the rainbow I do see the Dodgers winning that division, but, uh- Plus 850 for a team that's four and a half back. And again, if you pull up the- Mm-hmm...
30:13
Dodgers' schedule in August compared to the Padres' schedule, the Dodgers do have three against Oakland to start, which is a layup, but although Oakland's been a little feisty this year. Mm-hmm.
30:22
And then I'll be honest, I... This Dodgers' schedule in the middle of August is tough. Three against Philly, then you face Pittsburgh, who you might have to see Skeens in that series.
30:29
I know Pittsburgh, for the most part, is a bottom-feeder without Skeens, but with Skeens on the mound, they're, they're a top-notch team. Then you go- Kinda the only one... yeah, then you get four Milwaukee, three at St.
30:38
Louis, three against Seattle, who's got great pitching this year, and then you got three against Baltimore, two against Arizona to close the month.
30:44
Whereas the Padres, the Padres' schedule, now you do have two series against the Pirates, so you might have to see Skeens twice, but then it's six against the Rockies.
30:52
You get the Twins, the Mets, you get the Marlins in there, you get Tampa Bay in there, four at St. Louis to close out.
30:58
It's tough, but for the most part, San Diego's gonna be a favorite pretty much every game [laughs] they play in August, where the Dodgers probably will too, but not as significant of a favorite when you have series against...
31:08
at Milwaukee and against Philly, um, and against Baltimore. So I would not be shocked if that division race is two or three games heading into the final month, and we've really got a, a, a tight one on our hands.
31:21
At the end of the rainbow, though, do you think the Dodgers and the Phillies are still the two best teams in the National League, or do you think San Diego can still find a way to sneak into that World Series, uh, NLCS spot?
31:30
They've entered the chat. I'll give them credit for that. Uh, they're, they're there. And he... like, while we're at it, let's not forget about the Diamondbacks. Yeah.
31:36
They're only a half game behind the Padres, too, yet they're 13 to one as opposed to eight and a half to one- Mm... uh, to win the division. Is there... are they really that big of a gap? No.
31:44
I think if you're looking for value, the Diamondbacks are the value. I... you know, and they're gonna be getting pitching back, too. They're gonna get Merrill Kelly back.
31:50
They're gonna get Eduardo Rodriguez, who they signed in the off-season, hasn't thrown a pitch in, in anger yet this year. Uh, m- they're gonna get some help here coming up. Uh, so I, I, I think they're live.
32:00
And, you know, we know what they can do. They, they made a playoff run last year. This isn't a team that sh- is gonna be super intimidated by the Dodgers. I, I think they're kind of live as well.
32:09
They are, and again, they get those two games against the Dodgers at the end of August. I'm always fascinated, 'cause now we have these new markets, most wins in August, most wins in every month. Sure.
32:19
And it, it really is a fun way to kind of frame the baseball season month by month, and you kinda see how these teams go through the ebbs and the flows. 'Cause of course, it is a marathon, not a sprint.
32:28
On the American League side, would you be shocked if it's not Yankees or Orioles in the World Series, or do you think one of those other teams, Cleveland of course being the front runner, maybe has a chance to kinda sneak into the conversation there?
32:39
After we s- what we've seen from the playoffs, I would not be shocked at all. Cleveland's got the best record in baseball against teams with a 550 winning percentage, so th- and they're, they're up to the task.
32:48
They added a starter themselves, so we'll see. It's ironic that their hitting is carrying them, not their pitching this year. Um, and you, you never know. Maybe, maybe the Astros catch fire again. Mm.
32:56
I mean, the Astros are still live as well. Yeah, Mariners, too. Do, do you think they have enough offense? They tried to get a Rosarinho. I think the, the pitching's good, but the offense probably not there.
33:06
I, I, I think it's gonna be a tough road to hoe for them. Yeah. I mean, I think you look at, uh, just the, that ballpark suppressing offense so much, too. Yeah, such a tough job there.
33:14
All right, always doing a good job, Jeff Erickson over at RotoWire, senior editor, of course. Follow him on X at jeff_erickson. Appreciate the time as always, pal. Anytime, Jared. Take care. Good stuff across the board.
33:25
Lot of good baseball talk. A little bit more on the other side. Do I have a nerfy for you today? Who knows? We'll find out as we close up a numbers game on VSiN.
33:32
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Wow. You guys didn't see that, but Wyatt just cued me too early. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I got... I heard a, "Go," and I was like, "Okay, go." No. You, you, you have one job, Wyatt. One job.
34:03
You know what you have one job is, uh, to read. Tell us what i- what is on the vsin.com. How about you do the read? You do the read. I, I don't have the thing up. You have it up. No, it's on the screen right now.
34:10
You're getting paid to do it. I don't- Yeah, yeah, I'm just kidding. Check out vsin.com right now. Best bets, betting splits. I'm not even looking at the website right now, I'm just reading off the screen.
34:17
Best bets, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides. No, there are a lot of significantly actionable elements on the website today. LuFina Carlos chiming in.
34:27
UFC predictions, fight night in Abu Dhabi. Excited about that. Of course, college football, NFL, all times of, uh, fun stuff. We got a, uh, DM here, um, from the Bear, Chris Filique, who's watching the show.
34:40
Shout out, Bear. Love you, pal. Um, he said, "We're making a mistake overlooking the Royals in the, uh, American League wild card chase." And, and I agree with you, Bear. Um, the Royals have been fantastic lately.
34:52
I do think Bobby Witt is a legit MVP candidate. Um, and I'm not saying that just because, you know, he's what?
34:58
A $5 underdog in a market where Aaron Judge has basically been the predominant favorite for [laughs] like the better part of the last three months.
35:06
But Bobby Witt's, uh, war numbers are right there with, with, with, with Judge. And the Royals have this really feisty element to them, where I think their pitching is not quite where it needs to be at the top.
35:21
Lugo's been great. The analytics don't love him, but he's been really good regardless. Waka's been fantastic. Um, and Reagan's obviously is a Cy Young ace kind of, kind of caliber pitcher.
35:32
So Reagan's kind of taken a step back recently, but big start tonight against the Tigers, and, uh, that's where we start our, um, our baseball outlook here for tonight.
35:42
Reagan Scubel, really good pitching matchup tonight in Detroit. The nerfy is basically a given, right? Ugh. I wouldn't lay it at this price. I, I'm seeing some shops in town here minus 170 on the nerfy.
35:55
So usually my cutoff for the nerfy is, like, minus 140. I, I just...
36:01
and don't get me wrong, if there's any pitcher in baseball, two pitchers in baseball that should be able to get through a nerfy unscathed, it's Reagan's and Scubel. But I'll just give you this right here
36:13
The implied odds of a minus one... Let's go minus 150, 'cause I do see some minus 150s out there in the market, so let's go minus 150. Well, that's telling you 60% implied odds on a nerfy, right?
36:25
Well, Detroit's actually been an above average lineup this year.
36:28
The Royals, of course, um, I would call them average in terms of their scoring rate, but I would say Pasquettino and Witt in that two-three hole are very much above average.
36:39
Um, and especially last night, I think Pasquettino hit two home runs, and Witt's been great all year. I would not be running to the window to bet this nerfy tonight.
36:48
Um, the last time I bet a Tarik Skubal nerfy, Cal Raleigh hit a home run that hasn't landed yet.
36:54
So I, I would be hesitant on, um, this Tigers', uh, nerfy here, and not because I don't trust Skubal and Reagan, just because I think the price is, is, is kinda keeping me off of it. Um, but I appreciate Bear chiming in.
37:07
I, I agree, uh, Chris, I, I do think the Royals have a chance if they can get high quality from those three guys at the top.
37:17
Like, if Reagan, Zwaka, and Lugo can pitch to the best in the playoffs, they have a chance in a three-game wildcard series against the Yankees or an Orioles or whoever, you know, doesn't win the American League East.
37:32
Um, that'll be a really... I'll be, uh, let's... I'll leave it at this. If it is, like, let's say the Orioles win the division, and it's Yankees/Royals in a wildcard best of three, woo.
37:45
The Yankees would probably get home field because they'd have more wins, but I'll tell you what, Garrett Cole, Cole Regans,
37:53
I'd say that's kind of a wash, and then you go down the line with the rest of those Yankee starters, Marcus Stroman against Michael Waka and Nestor Cortes against Seth Lugo.
38:04
Again, I don't know how the rotation will shake out, but it'll be somewhere in that capacity. I wouldn't be running to the window to lay anything with the Yankees in that series, that's for sure.
38:11
How much does, like, home field advantage- It matters 'cause of last licks... factor in in, like, a play- in playoffs? Last licks. Okay. So I think certain teams, the home field matters more.
38:21
I think Philly ma- I think Philly's got the best home field that I've seen in recent years, um, which is why it was such a surprise that they lost both game six and seven at home in the NLCS last year to the D-backs.
38:33
Um, I might be wrong about that. I forget if it was both. It might've just been one game at home. I forget how many games at home they lost in that NLCS, but I remember it was a clinching game. Um,
38:42
yeah, I, I think Philly has a really good home field advantage. So I have a really unique perspective on the Yankees home field, because I grew up in New York.
38:49
I went to the games when they were played at Yankee Stadium, um, the original Yankee Stadium. I remember the last game I went to at the old Yankee Stadium, I wanna say it was 2000...
39:02
I wanna say it was the '03 ALCS game seven, where the Yankees lost to the Red Sox. That was your- Johnny Damon hit two home runs. I didn't live in New York at the time. I was at Penn State at the time, obviously.
39:11
But that was your last game at Yankee? Well- Well, the last actual game was 2008, I think. Oh, okay. The last actual game. I didn't go to a whole lot of Yankees games in that time that I was in college.
39:21
Um, but the 2000- I was gonna say, that was a heck of a last game to go to. When was the... When w- I think the, I think that was the... No, it wasn't the '03 ALCS. It wasn't, 'cause they went to the World Series in '03.
39:31
I think it was the '04 ALCS. Yeah, it was the o- it was the next year. It was the '04 ALCS. It was October of 2004. I was a freshman at Penn State, and I remember my cousin called me the morning of the game.
39:44
My cousin had Yankee season tickets at the time, and he's like, "Hey, I got an extra ticket for game seven tonight." And they had just lost game six the night prior.
39:52
I remember it was, it was dregs of the kegs morale for Yankees fans that day after blowing the, uh, 3-0 lead. And I got in my car in State College, I drove to the game, and they got their asses kicked.
40:03
And I remember having to drive back. It was not a fun drive back. I remember I had a Spanish midterm the next day that I got a B on, actually. Pretty impressive stuff to get a B on a Spanish midterm the day- [laughs]...
40:10
the night before having to drive back from Yankee Stadium all the way back to State College. But that was, I think, the last time I was in the Bronx until they closed it, which was '09, right?
40:18
The '09 season was the first season in the new stadium, that and the year they won the World Series. What are your thoughts, I mean, going off topic here, just nostalgia stadiums.
40:26
Do you think that the, it was the right call to make a new stadium, or do you think they should have renovated the- Well, that's, well, well, that's my point. The Yankee Stadium had a massive home field advantage. Hmm.
40:34
That place used to shake. It used to be un... Like, you couldn't keep your wits about you when that place was going off the rails. The new stadium, for all its polish and pomp, is very sterile.
40:51
These wide, you know, mezzanines and these, you know, legend seats and everyone's eating the shrimp cocktail and every... It doesn't have the same New York City angst that the old stadium had. So I, I down...
41:05
And, you know, home field advantage is what it... I, I downgrade the Yankees home field at the new stadium compared to the old stadium. Um, I think Philly's got the best home field advantage right now in baseball. I do.
41:14
I, I think the Rockies have a very unique one, obviously, but not for fan reasons, for, for altitude reasons. But they're not gonna be in the playoffs anyways. Um- Uh, to a- Yeah, go ahead...
41:25
answer your question, the Diamondbacks did win game six and seven both at, uh, at, uh- Yeah, so how good is the Philly home field advantage?... at what is, Citizens Bank Park, right? Yeah.
41:33
How good is the Philly home field advantage? You couldn't defend at game six, seven in the NLCS.
41:36
Well, I'm an Atlanta Braves fan, and we've lost all four games there in the past two years, uh, for the NLDS, so yeah, it's a little tough. I think,
41:44
I think there is a certain vibe to the Yankees this year that makes me not excited about them in the playoffs. Um, I do not think the Yankees are gonna make the World Series this year. You heard it here first.
41:54
Um, all right, tonight's card, again, I wouldn't bet the nerfy in Kansas City Detroit. Is it probably gonna hit? Yeah. Is it a good bet? No.
42:02
The game that intrigues me, there's two games that actually intrigue me on the nerfy board today. The first one's in the Pacific Northwest.
42:09
Um, I always like interleague nerfies, because you have a team in Philly that- I would be willing to bet that there's not many players, uh, on the Philly roster that have played a game in Seattle.
42:20
Um, maybe with the exception of, you know, the veteran type guys. But any of the young players, you know, how often does Philly go to Seattle? Um, probably never. And you get a really good pitching matchup tonight.
42:31
You get Bryan Woo, who has been just... When he's on the mound, when he's healthy, he's been lights out. A young kid from the Oakland area. He's been a really good young pitcher for Seattle.
42:39
He's only made 11 starts this year, but he's nine and two to the Nerfy. And then on the other side, you get Tyler Phillips, who is a very young pitcher, just making his fourth start in the bigs.
42:48
He's three and O to the Nerfy so far. His stuff looks great. I believe he's coming off a shutout performance in his last start. Um, but for the exercise here, we're just concerned with the first inning.
42:58
Um, neither of these lineups have been great lately. Obviously, Philly has elite power, but I am concerned about Schwarber leading off the game with a home run.
43:09
But outside of that, I feel good about Bryan Woo's, uh, chances of getting through the top of the first unscathed because he's never pitched against this Phillies lineup before.
43:17
In fact, if I scroll down to the matchups, he has never faced anyone on the team in his entire career. That's always advantage pitcher.
43:25
Obviously, Tyler Phillips, just making his fourth start, has not faced anyone in the Seattle lineup either.
43:30
So you get two pitchers that are young with great stuff that have never seen the opposing lineup in a ballpark that's a, a pitcher's ballpark, a ballpark that Philly never travels to and likely will have to get used to some sight lines throughout the weekend.
43:44
So I think the Nerfy in Seattle makes a lot of sense tonight. I think the Nerfy in Pittsburgh is also a direction I would point you in. Uh, Brandon Pfaadt, Luis Ortiz tonight. Ortiz making his fifth start.
43:54
He's four and O to the Nerfy this year. Brandon Pfaadt's been up, he's been down. He's been great, though, in the, in the Nerfy market. 39 career starts for Brandon Pfaadt, 30 Nerfy's in his life. Good stuff there.
44:08
So Arizona, Pittsburgh, Nerfy. Philadelphia, Seattle, Nerfy. That's where I would point you in the Nerfy market tonight. Great stuff all around. Wyatt Tomchek, our producer. Tyler Shoemaker, Jeff Erickson.
44:17
Fantastic show by everyone in the back. I'm Jared Smith. Feast continues on the other side. [upbeat music]
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