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Aug 30, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 30, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 30, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story. They always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at The D, downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. How you doing, sir?
0:25
You good? I'm doing great. Not as great as you after a fantastic tennis betting night last night. Whoa. Yeah, we'll get to that. Pretty good. Yeah, that was a good day. Not bad. That was a...
0:35
Today was a good day, as, uh, Cube once said. Um, we'll get to that momentarily. We'll get to the Carlos Alcaraz historic upset last night. Uh, we will get to Paul Carr, Premier League plays coming.
0:47
Uh, Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports, talk college football with us. Jason Weingarten. Dr. Bob makes his weekly, uh, college football appearance.
0:54
I'm not sure if he has any additional plays from what he's already given out. He'll certainly repeat those. But we'll talk how he comes up with his college football priors.
1:02
For those who want nerdy, uh, handicapping talk, uh, we'll talk, talk about how he comes up with his priors, and week one trends in college football through the years. Macro trends that, uh, he's got the old database.
1:15
He does his model, he does his technical analysis, so we'll get into his, uh, technical analysis on that kind of stuff. Um, first though, I just want to shout out Mitch and Paul.
1:24
Uh, Mitch Moss, Paulie Howard, who have done Follow the Money for seven years. Um, Kelly, you and I, just to give perspective on this, Kelly, you and I wake up, not, not together, by the way.
1:36
Uh, I wake up at 4:55 AM to do a 7:00 AM morning show, so, uh, two hours before the show starts with, with five minutes change. I assume they get up two hours before their show too. Mm-hmm. They broadcast from...
1:50
have broadcast now for seven years from 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM. So their, their world, the difference between what we do and what they do is even though we wake up early, we can have normal lives.
2:01
What they have done for seven years is mind-boggling. They wake up literally in the middle of the night to do a show at the crack of dawn. And I know East Coast, they're like, "Oh, it's 7:00 to 10:00"- Right...
2:14
but they're actually up from 4:00 to 7:00 or have been. And what a moment in this li- in, in their lives this must be that this is the last day they ever have to do that again.
2:24
Now, I know their loyal audience is sad that they're moving, uh, but Mitch has a child now, and it's, and after seven years, seven years, think about the percentage of your life that is. Wow, it's crazy.
2:33
If you're lucky enough to live 80 years, it's a massive percentage of your life.
2:37
And so good for them, but I just want to shout them out because the ability to wake up at that hour, five days a week, and forget, forget whether you even, like, forget the...
2:51
Just go to the baseline, that you can speak cogently on sports- About sports that occurred the night before... that just occurred- Yeah... hours before that. I once asked Mitch, I was like, "How, what is your routine?"
3:01
And he's like, "It's always different," which makes it even more mind-boggling. How is it always different?
3:05
So I, I worked on that show when we were in the heart of the pandemic, and it was basically the only show going at the, at the network. I know you got...
3:13
You started up a little bit after, but we were going in and, um, you know, it was, I was waking up at midnight and would go into the South Point.
3:20
I mean, that's what that schedule's like for, for those guys working on that shift. And it was easier back then. Why? Because there was no sports going on, right? So I could actually go to bed at 5:00 PM- Yeah...
3:32
and wake up at midnight. But that is the type of sleep schedule that you're talking about. So yes, seven years, that is incredible that they did it for that long.
3:41
Um, happy for them that they get to move to, move to an afternoon. And I, I caught a bit of the show this morning. Thought the best line was, "Toss out the alarm clocks. Don't have to worry about that ever again."
3:49
For the rest of their days on Earth. For the rest of their days on Earth.
3:53
So, so shout out to those two guys who, by the way, in case you missed it, I should probably have said this at the beginning, they announced this morning on Follow the Money that they are moving. The show's not ending.
4:01
They are moving to afternoons, uh, 4:00 to 7:00 Eastern, 1:00 to 4:00 PM Pacific, Monday through Friday, beginning this coming Monday, Labor Day, three days from now. Um- Time-wise, we're not going anywhere.
4:14
We're not going anywhere. Yeah. People were wondering. We're not going anywhere. We're right here, same time slot every day. I've been doing this time slot for seven and a half years. Uh, [laughs]
4:24
oh, they'll have to take... What's the line? They'll take me out of my whatever it is. Pull me out of here. Uh, seven and I have no idea what I'm saying. Seven and a half years we've been doing this. So, uh, again,
4:33
tip of the cap. Yes. Yes. The ultimate tip of the cap to those two guys. Uh, from the tennis world, uh, yesterday, quite a day. We had ourselves a day, people. 5-0, four of them dogs.
4:46
And, uh, we just got just so much love on Twitter yesterday. People, by the way, people parlaying. We should show some of these parlays people were doing.
4:54
But it was like a, it was like a 69 to one parlay or something like that, uh, hitting them all.
4:59
But it was, uh, it began with the biggest dog of them all, Jordan Thompson in the morning, straight sets over Hubert Hurkacz. Then Jessie Buza-Manero is a plus 157 dog, straight sets over Katie Boulter.
5:11
Then, you know, you're... Daniel Evans was the guy who was, or excuse me, Nuno Borges, you know, he was down a break early to Thanasi Kokkinakis, and you're like, "Well, this is probably gonna..."
5:19
Yeah, straight set winner, plus 115 over Kokkinakis. Daniel Evans, who played the longest match in US Open history two days before that, straight sets over Mariano Navone. Uh, he, he overcame a couple breaks too.
5:30
And then Karolína Muchová, the night cap over Naomi Osaka, the two-time US Open champion. Um, Muchová was just fantastic, and she won in straight sets. So not only a 5-0 with four dogs, but 13-0 in sets.
5:44
Um, there's just one, here's just one example from Nick Colt. Uh, what's, what are his odds here? 69 to one, something like that. Um, so, you know, just a...
5:53
[laughs] By the way, we don't endorse the parlays, but people apparently were doing them on, on their own. [laughs] So we got a whole bunch.
5:59
By the way, as little, some, some as little as three Canadian dollars we get from some people. Yeah, this one threw me off this morning. Yeah. I believe this is the Canadian dollars. There you go. Yes, the CAD. Yeah.
6:09
So good on everybody What was that? Twenty to win, twenty to win thirteen hundred? Okay. Yeah.
6:14
Yep And I'm just-- Uh, I said-- What I said is this has been a very interesting twenty twenty-four calendar tennis season because hard court season, you can just keep flashing some of these up, by the way. [laughs] Yeah.
6:24
Two fifty to win n- almost twenty grand. Um, the, you know, so by the way, one of these will be- So, so there's big tips golf, though. This is, uh, th- Well, this is different, what we're getting at here.
6:34
I think he had two. One of his is different, which we'll get to momentarily.
6:36
But I just wanna say this, it, it's twenty twenty-four, the calendar season of tennis has been just a rollercoaster ride because hard court season to begin was fantastic.
6:45
Then clay was, like, super unlucky, and when you s... And believe me, I'm aware of what's bad and what's unlucky, and it was just relentlessly unlucky.
6:54
But you just have to b- if you believe in your process, you just stick with it. It's sort of a, a sort of macro lesson with, with handicapping. Then grass season did suck. Like, it wasn't just unlucky, it sucked.
7:05
Uh, then the Olympics and, and hard courts returned again. It was another soaring thing. Um, and then last week, we just couldn't win a match all of a sudden, and you're like, "Well, what's going on here?"
7:15
And then so it's nice to have a day where it all manifests. Nobody quits on you.
7:20
This has been a b- it's been a very unlucky year with the n- the, the number of things that have happened, so it could've been a great, even greater year. But, uh, it is a, it is a winning year.
7:28
Um, Zach and Cheese hat tip to Gil, uh, tennis elections given out. Not only did Gil sweep, he didn't drop a set master class. Yeah, no, thank you. I appreciate that. I hope everybody cashed with us.
7:37
Um, I don't wanna read through all these, but they... [laughs] Rumor has, rumor has it the owner of the sushi place listens to A and G, and he will now allow you to announce the sushi place.
7:47
Five dogs, five winners, all straight sets. Mazel tov. Thank you, Ryan Morse. Dean, my mishpucha. Uh, Michael Harrison, these sportsbooks gonna start taking down those lines again.
7:56
[laughs] We were talking about that the other day. Great job today, Gil. Sets up for a nice weekend. Um, I only have one play today. There's Jack Lock showing.
8:02
This is, by the way, every, every pick from every host and every guest in every sport is at vsin.com/picks for subscribers. This is how they appear. That's how they appeared yesterday. Jack Locks, what a day. Muchova.
8:15
Oh, by the way, our Muchova quarter bet still obviously moves along as well as Collins Sky in Q2, where Elena Rybakina pulled out. That was part of the handicap, that she's very, you know, sort of unreliable.
8:28
Oh, that's what happened yesterday? Yeah, she pulled out. Okay. Her seventh tournament of the year that she's pulled out of. Are you serious? Yeah. She's-- Something's going on with her.
8:35
When she plays, she's great, but something- Wait, what, what is... Is it like- It's been abdominal stuff Is it-- it's like real stuff, though? It's not like I'm down and quitting- It's real... that sort of thing?
8:44
Well, she, she did break up with her coach, but there, there's been something going on with her all year, and I don't wanna speculate. I don't know what's going on. Um, I hope she's, I hope she's okay.
8:51
Today was more with a handicap. It was more of there was a, there was a few that I, that, like, the numbers suggested I should play.
8:59
I may live to regret not playing them, but I did not pull the trigger on, uh, Juncheng Shang against Casper Ruud, even though there was some value on him.
9:08
Um, I've, I, I respect Casper Ruud's game too much to just trust the numbers implicitly on that. Also, the same thing with Elena Gabriela Rouse against Paula Badosa, who's our, our quarter, our Q3, uh, futures play.
9:21
Um, her numbers are spectacular, but this is a big step up in competition, so, um, I don't necessarily make the translation to a bet. The only bet is on Elise Mertens.
9:32
Got Elise Mertens at plus one ninety-nine over the American Maddie Keys. Uh, this should not be close to plus one ninety-nine, so that's the only play I landed on today.
9:42
Sorry, after the, the five and oh to only have one play, but that's, that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes. Uh, not gonna force plays. Elise Mertens plus one ninety-nine over Madison Keys- Oh...
9:52
also dictated by the numbers. What's the number right now on Mertens? She is plus one ninety-three, so still very, very available.
9:58
Also, how m- how much more does it feel like you don't need to force plays after a five and oh day? [laughs] Oh. Yeah. Backing up and- It's so much easier to be like, "Yeah, nope, I'm gonna go real light." Totally.
10:08
The big story, though, and this is the biggest story in sports, with apologies to Dion. The biggest story in sports yesterday was Carlos Alcaraz lost in straight sets to Botic van de Zandschulp. Obviously.
10:19
I mean, there's no way you could predict this. Alcaraz, twenty-one winners and twenty-seven unforced errors. It's like somebody else inhabited his body.
10:27
Zach Cohen, our own Zach Cohen, did a great writeup of this at vsin.com. Um, before the match, you could have gotten Zandschulp at about twenty-eight to one, something in the twenties to one. Oh, my God.
10:36
Alcaraz was minus ten thousand. By the way, there's minus ten thousand favorites in tennis all the time, like when Sinner or Djokovic- Right... or Alcaraz play somebody much lesser than them.
10:45
But they never come, I mean, rarely in the history of tennis. Zach does a great job pointing out the history. Uh, c- uh, Alcaraz lost as a minus twenty thousand favorite against Fabian Marozsan last year in Rome.
10:58
I remember that. Um, so that was a l- that w- might have been a little bigger of a dog.
11:03
I will argue, and he says many will argue, I will argue this, that Robin Soderling's fourth-round win over Rafa Nadal at the French Open in two thousand nine was the biggest upset of all time.
11:11
But Zach points out the odds don't actually reflect that. Soderling was plus fifteen seventy-five in that match, not what van de Zandschulp was yesterday.
11:20
And then just by average odds at a major, he says Lucas Rosol's win over Nadal at Wimbledon in twenty twelve, I don't even remember that, might take the cake.
11:29
He said the average odds on Rosol was plus twenty-t- oh, was twenty-two to one. But last night, I mean, what the heck was that? I've heard the name ten times. I still can't say it right. Botic van de Zandschulp? Yeah.
11:42
Botic. We actually- Just gonna go with Botic... there was a primetime action where he was playing. I'll refresh your memory on the other side. Uh, what about Dion? That's next
11:57
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12:04
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12:12
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12:18
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12:26
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12:37
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada at the D. We get to... By the way, is this our, uh, is this our last day at Bar Canada, Kelly? Is this- Maybe, Gil...
12:49
I'm just starting to put two and two together. Maybe. Is this the last time we're ever gonna have to wear a headphone and have a dent in our hair every day- It's, oh, the hair dents... walking around town?
12:58
The hair dents. Hair dents. I can do things after the show without having to take a shower first. Um, [laughs] uh, let's see. Uh, let me, let me read some of these. Let me read some of these tweets, shall we?
13:10
We got tweets @BeatingTheBook. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback. Best listeners in the game. Absolutely. This is, uh, let's see.
13:18
Uh, Montreal Max, "After Gil's amazing board sweep in tennis yesterday and the prices those generated on parlays, there should be a line at the A&G table this morning with people dropping envelopes off like the wedding scene in Goodfellas."
13:29
Or as Crack says- [laughs]... you gotta tip. Um, my goose hit a big parlay. [laughs] Even backdoor Little Joey says, uh, this is from, let's see, David Jaden, "Damn, Gil, excellent work.
13:42
Never made a tennis bet in my life, but if you're gonna make it this easy." Um, Bentley, "Kicking myself for not subscribing to VSiN sooner. Ride or die, Gil. Let's go."
13:51
And Sam S, @SamuelStackis, Stackis, pardon me, "Alcaraz goes down in straight sets to Van de Zandschulp last night. After this and the loss to Monfils, is there any macro concern for Carlitos?" Yes, there kind of is.
14:04
Like, that was just bizarro last night. Um, and I was, uh, Kelly, I was gonna tell you, um, when we did prime time action, me, you, and Matt Brown, and I, I wanna say, what was it, 2021 this is?
14:16
'Cause I used to do the, the two shows a day then, and- Two years ago. Yep. Was it two years ago? Yeah, I've been, I've been on a numbers game for two years now. Okay. Right? Yeah, that sounds right.
14:27
But I was off prime time action well before you were, wasn't I? I think so. So I think this was... Anyway, '20, whatever- Maybe like a month or two if, if anything.
14:34
Okay, but US Open was probably 2020, uh, whatever it was, 2021 or 2022. It's not the point. [laughs] God. 2021 or 2022, one of those years.
14:42
Uh, Botic, Botic van de Zandschulp was playing a match while we were on air at, like, Louis Armstrong, and you'll reme- you might remember this part. The, one of the, I think it was Louis Armstrong and not Ash- Oh...
14:52
where it's not closed, and it's open air on the sides like SoFi is, and umbrellas and stuff was flying- Was this the hurricane? The hur- all was flying all around, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, they legit got hit by a hurricane.
15:03
That was Van de Zandschulp, who at that time in tennis was sort of, like, with Holger Rune, one of these guys that was gonna be on the come-up, and then it never happened for his, Van de Zandschulp.
15:14
He lost in straight sets at Winston-Salem last week to, like- Wow... Kazau. Wow, good memory. That was a crazy night. I remem- I remember leaving- Yeah...
15:21
I remember leaving the show that night, and because we were like, "Is this really, the weather's this bad at the US Open?" Yeah. Get, get in my car, call my buddy Casey.
15:30
Casey gets brought up on the show a lot, but you know, we split contacts entries. We all know Casey. He lives in New York, and I'm like, "Yeah, is there really, like, a hurricane going on there?" [laughs] And he goes...
15:38
I'll never forget, he was leaving the gym. This, he's the guy who doesn't check the weather channel or something. Went to the gym, worked out, and came out, and the whole parking lot was flooded.
15:47
[laughs] He couldn't get out of there. Bro, 1993, Hurricane Andrew in, uh, Miami. Oh. My dad and, my dad and his buddy were the last people to leave Miami 'cause they were both like, "Uh." It'll be nothing. It's bull.
15:58
Yeah. It's nothing. That was a bad one. That was, that was terrible. Ruined Akiba's game too. Um, Grissom commenting on the Tim Murray, uh, dunk video. He says, "Are we just gonna ignore the double dribble?
16:09
What is this, the NBA?" And then Michael Burns, um, about Mitch and Paul, was, we were paying tribute moments ago. He said, "I feel their pain. I work nights, go to bed after your show.
16:18
Work 8:00 PM to 6:00 AM here in St. Louis. It's a vampire's life, my friends say." It is. I used to do, forget the two shows a day here at VSiN. I used to do midnight to 6:00 AM at KMEL back in the day.
16:29
Renell, who used to do the morning show at KMEL in San Francisco, who u- who then became the Giants PA announcer, she used to find me asleep on the console as, as records were playing. That's playing records, right?
16:41
That's playing music. Records. [laughs] Records. Or it's not even records. It was what we call- We're playing records. [laughs] We call carts. We're like eight tracks. There we go.
16:48
[laughs] You just shove them into a machine. Um, but again, that's, that's the main point I wanna say about them.
16:53
To wake up at that hour, and to keep those hours, and to be able to know what you're talking about is just incredible. It's awesome. What was, what was it like when they first invented the radio signal, Gil?
17:06
Well, let me tell you, before that, when they invented fire. [laughs] That was a day. I was playing the record. [laughs] I don't know. Sorry.
17:14
I'm, I'm just imagining a, like, w- like, well, the 1940s, like, radio stations. [laughs] Why, I used to talk like this. Right, yeah. Uh, Tim Lawson, uh, texted in, "LOL at not together, by the way."
17:25
Apparently you and I, you and I waking up not together, by the way. Yeah, you felt the need to specify that. [laughs] Just wanna make sure. Um, Dion yesterday, did you see this? I did, yeah. Watched a lot of that game.
17:34
I got burnt. Uh, hey, college football's back. Kelly's losing bets. Yeah, he is.
17:38
Uh, I thought I was all, a big genius jumping in pretty early betting live overs in that game 'cause the first, uh, first few drives, you're like, "Nobody's stopping anybody here."
17:47
Yeah, the, the, the whole thing with, first of all, Colorado, for those who missed it, Colorado beats North Dakota State, FCS power North Dakota State, 31-26. They win but don't cover. Um-
17:57
For the, yeah, the first, I mean, most of that game, what was the, everybody texting around the same comment, some variation of same old Colorado D and same old Colorado offensive line- Yeah... kind of thing, right?
18:08
But you're right, it was like a track meet.
18:10
Um, you figured whoever got a, you know, it was like whoever could hold, who- whoever could break serve you thought was gonna win the game, basically, to, to use the tennis, uh, analogy.
18:20
But the end of the game just deserves a mention because first of all, I, first of all, there is no shame in not covering against North Dakota State. May I just say that? Like- Yeah, ab- oh, 100%, yes...
18:28
North Dakota State is a, is a good football team. And so the fact that Colorado, you know, didn't cover is not like a slam on Colorado.
18:38
The fact that they won is still the most important thing from a, from an odd betting perspective. Um, but at the end of the game, they're up five, and everybody who saw this knows where I'm, where I'm going here.
18:48
Colorado, uh, North Dakota State has one timeout left. It's less than two minutes. Colorado can run out the clock. They can run it out. They've won the football game. So what do they do on first down?
18:59
Shador drops back to pass and heaves it. So now everybody, of course, the, uh, the conspiracy folks are like, it is one of two things. Either he's padding his son's stats, right?
19:09
He wants to pad Shador's, uh, Shador Sanders' stats for, I don't know, a Heisman run. Yeah. Or two, they're trying to cover the spread. And by the way, I'm not denying either of those two theories. [laughs] Well, he, uh,
19:23
uh... Who was the wide receiver that had the big, the big night? Deion was, Deion was talking about literally padding the stats in post-game. He was like, "Oh, he finished 198 yards?
19:31
We should have made sure we get him two more." Talking about Travis Hunter? No, no, no, not Hunter. Horn. Horn. Uh, Horn. Joe Horn Jr. Yeah, Joe Horn Jr. Thank you. Um, or the third. I can't even keep track anymore.
19:41
Yeah, yeah. Um, but- Joe Horn's kid... the point being, right, Joe Horn, he famously of the cell phone removal in the end zone when he was playing for the Saints. Right. Um, so
19:51
but that, but that put the game in jeopardy, so it stops the clock. By the way, there was a subsequent pass to that, too.
19:57
So North Dakota State ends up with the ball, yeah, it was, you know, 30 seconds left in the game, a little more than that, but whatever it was, around 30-second mark, but they were able to complete a couple passes, and so they got into Hail Mary range.
20:09
Hail Mary. They got into... Sorry, a little too far. [laughs] They got into Hail Mary range, and they heaved the ball at the end, and it was short, but the dude caught it, like, he ends up at the four-yard line.
20:20
So imagine- Yeah... for as many people, the dis- or the percentage of people that dislike Deion Sanders going into the game for all the reasons one might dislike Deion, right?
20:31
M- most notably, most recently, not allowing reporters to ask a question if he felt like their publication slighted him. Which is just ridiculous. Which is just insane.
20:40
Yeah, from a journalism background, that's just- But imagine if they lose that football game, dude. Imagine if they, the criticism, the incoming he would get for that. Yeah.
20:48
The, uh, the one thing I can't deny, however you feel about, uh, you know, Deion, Colorado, what's happened there, oh boy, is it entertaining. And it is, it, it feels like the beginning of last season all over again.
21:00
Except for last season we had that unknown, right, of when is this run gonna stop, uh, when they were winning games early. Oh, we knew it wasn't gonna stop on the schedule last year. Horn.
21:08
This is, uh, but like, I, like it's still fun watching these guys. Like I, I would lo- I would love it if they were able to actually put together a good season. Oh, I mean, I love Shador Sanders.
21:18
I lo- I lo- I mean, the offense- And Hunter, Hunter's amazing... the offense is un, is just incredible to watch, man.
21:24
Um, and I just wanna say one other note to this game, that Mark Jones is just a travesty calling these games. Like, he's just, he's so,
21:33
he's so in Deion Sanders's, in camp with some of, he's like, he's like a mouthpiece for some of the Sanders stuff. There was something, um, I didn't catch. I caught the, I caught the tail end of it.
21:43
Someone can, can tweet in about it. They'll get the details better than I will.
21:46
But he, he, he parroted something about like, oh, people, the reason that people were criticizing Deion had something to do with religion or something. I missed it.
21:53
But it was like, Mark Jones, you're the announcer, dude. Stop, stop, stop clearly being the mouthpiece of one side of this football game. It's just awful, I thought. Um, so anyway, Colorado gets the win.
22:03
And again, um, that was a very he- the, the most heavily bet college football game, at least up to kickoff yesterday.
22:10
We'll see if that changes between now and the marquee matchups this, uh, this weekend in college football.
22:14
But that was the most heavily bet football game, college football game of the entire weekend, and people were hugely divided on it. And, um, I think it, I, I didn't touch it.
22:23
I was not involved 'cause I kinda figured it coulda landed anywhere, and that's kinda what it was. Plinko. Yeah, yeah, no, I, I mean, yeah, you're right.
22:30
I mean, I wanna say good call by North Dakota State backers, but it was, it was up in the air. But- I, I, I, I brought this up earlier.
22:37
It's amazing to think that they're gonna have two guys go like in the top five of the draft and go like 500. Oh, yeah. But like last night it felt that way. 500 would be a feat. We'll come back. Um, I don't know.
22:46
Why don't we talk some college football and some baseball next? [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game, live from Bar Canada. The date, Skill Alexander.
22:58
It's Kelly Midler. We get tweets at Betting the Book. Paul Zang at Zang100, "Uh, glad you're staying in the 10:00 AM Eastern time slot. Do we know who's taking 7:00 AM?" Hey, enough with the questions.
23:09
Find out Monday morning. Todd Hoyer, uh, "Going to miss, um, going to miss them in the mornings." He's talking about Mitch and Paul.
23:14
In case you missed it, Mitch and Paul announcing that Follow the Money is moving to afternoons, uh, 4:00 to 7:00 Eastern, 1:00 to 4:00, uh, Pacific, starting this Monday, um, after seven years of doing that timeslop, uh, time slot.
23:26
Todd Hoyer says, "Going to miss them in the morning. Would hope it's Gil, but I don't think Gil and Kelly get up that early." No, we don't. Sorry, did I say that loud? Get up early enough. That's right.
23:37
The numbers guys, uh, "No, [laughs] no barking from the dog, no smog. [laughs] Mama made the breakfast with no hog. It was a good day, that's for sure. It was with tennis.
23:46
Doesn't sound that s-" [laughs] He says, "That part doesn't sound so special, the smog and mama k- uh, cooking the breakfast with no hog. But you should celebrate with some Fat Burger for lunch, Gil."
23:53
Yeah, 2:00 in the morning, got a Fat Burger. Chance Copper Pot, "Gil, thanks for the tennis dogs yesterday, but I'm sorry, big whiff not giving out 25 to one with Van de Zandschulp." Over Alcaraz. I'm sorry.
24:04
My, my apologies on that. It, it- I mean, come on... is Chance still, uh, the run- the reigning sort of, uh, uh, Sharp Money survivor? Uh, I believe they do like the... Oh, he lost on Wednesday. Sorry.
24:14
[laughs] Thanks, man. I, I do not know. So sorry, Chance. Chance says, "I mean, come on. Happy to see y'all staying in the same time slot as we move into the new Vsauce season." And then Tokyo2021, or 2020-21.
24:24
He said, "A great article by, uh, Zach, as you pointed out on, uh, vsauce.com about the Alcaraz upset. Follow up to your note, quote, 'Oddsmakers knew people would keep hammering Alcaraz.'" That's Zach's note.
24:35
Uh, so when were the right times to back Botic in play? Um, Zach was... Ooh, I don't know, I don't know what this refers to, but maybe Zach had this part in the article.
24:44
But it, it, you know, just to give you an idea about tennis odds, when Carlos Alcaraz, and this is all derivative, right? It's all formulaic.
24:51
A minus 10,000 or so favorite pre-flop loses the first two sets to Botic van de Zandschulp. You probably say to yourself, self, "Oh, Alcaraz has to be a dog here."
25:01
No, he was like a minus 170 dog heading into the last set. Heard Matt Vasgersian say it this morning on Follow the Money. He hopped on Bot- uh, Botich. I can't say the guy's name.
25:10
He hopped on him then at plus money when he was up two sets. It's Botic van de Zandschulp. What's the, what's the problem? I can't do it. [laughs] I can't do it. What's the problem with you?
25:17
Um, yeah, so no, it, it was only until he, I guess, got bro- I don't know. It was, got broken late, and it was, by the way, it was bro- uh, I think it was broken to love.
25:30
No, no, maybe he got it to 15-40, but it was just like this performance. You're like, "What am I watching?" Um, so it was just incredible.
25:38
So yeah, just to give you an idea about tennis odds and just, you know, again, formulaic, formulaic, you know, numbers just in terms of pre-flop in any sport versus what you will see, it's all derivative of the pre-flop number, and so that's what it was.
25:51
You, you're that big of a favorite before even down two sets to l- to n- uh, nothing, you are still a favorite. At least Carlitos was heading into the third set. So good on, good on Vasgersian.
26:00
By the way, uh, Botic van de Zandschulp, Kelly, um, there's two things in this world I can't stand. It's intolerance of other cultures. [laughs] And? And something.
26:09
And Paul Carr joins us, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, Senior Director of Content at True Media Sports.
26:17
He is the host of the Expected Value podcast, and all year long, all football season long, doing stuff for The Ringer. All, uh, soccer season long, I should say, the global football, doing stuff at The Ringer as well.
26:27
What exactly is The Ringer gig again? Ringer Soccer Show, talking Premier League, Champions League, US when it comes around.
26:34
So last night we just recorded our Champions League draw reaction show and looked ahead to the Premier League weekend. I love it. Good for you, man. Multimedia celebrity you are. Um- Oh.
26:44
Let's talk about, before we get to your Premier League picks, which by the way, one and two last week. Paul Carr's the guy- Yeah... who moves the chains every week, uh, every year. Got, got the plus 150. That's good.
26:52
You got the plus 150, so one and two is like, it just, uh, you know, half a unit gone. Uh- Yep... a little, little more than a half a unit. Um, Champions League, the draw. This is always a thing, right?
27:01
'Cause we're always joking. Sure. We're like, "Oh yeah, the random draw," in quotes. Uh, any news to report from the draw?
27:09
Uh, I mean, Falica will tell you that Liverpool got hosed and Man City got a favorable draw, which is true, and the big story is even broader, and we'll talk about this I'm sure over the course of the season, but they totally changed the format of Champions League.
27:22
Oh. Instead of 32 teams and eight groups of four, everyone plays each other in the top two advance, there are now 36 teams and it's one giant table. They're all basically one league,
27:33
and one way or another, the top 24 out of 36 are all gonna advance. Uh, there's different seedings. The top eight get a bye, things like that. So I pretty much hate this new format.
27:43
Uh, the draw wasn't as fun because they didn't have as many ping pong balls. Like, they just pushed, Cristiano Ronaldo just hit the No Whammies button and the computer said, "Here's your plane."
27:50
[laughs] So I'm sh- there's nothing shady about that at all. Uh. What's the No Whammies? Yeah. Joker is Wild? Was that Joker is Wild? Uh. Or is that a different one? Or, or Press Your Luck, I think.
27:59
Press Your Luck, something like that, yeah. Um- Yeah... still only four, four sides from the, uh, Premier League though in the 30s? Uh, Premier League four.
28:06
The top couple leagues based on how they did last year got five. So there were five from Italy and five from Germany. And was this ju- But, uh, yeah...
28:13
was this just the equivalent, like the, the US equivalent of like saying, "Hey, we have 64 teams in March Madness. Why don't we go to 128?" That kind of thing. Yeah. More games- Yeah... more money.
28:22
Uh, the power conference's equivalent, get more teams in. Yeah, that's, that's really what it was. Remember that Super League thing from a couple years ago?
28:28
This was kind of in response to that to placate some of those power teams. Man City, by the way, to win Champions League plus 250. That, that's horrible. Don't- Yeah... don't get anywhere near that.
28:38
Don't get anywhere near that. Real Madrid also three to one. I'm saying probably don't get, don't get anywhere near that either. No, no. Yeah. I mean, it's just, it's a...
28:45
I mean, the price is gonna be the same in January or February anyway, so if you really like that then, it's really not gonna change much for all these favorites. Arsenal eight to one.
28:52
Liverpool 12 to one begins all the double digits along with Bayern Munich, also 12 to one from Bundesliga. I'm glad they're making them play more games. 11 months out of the year isn't- It's just not enough...
29:03
it's not enough. It's w- that's- Yeah, more games... that's our impression. Like, when we close with you on the Premier League season, we're like, "All right, we'll see you next season, Paul."
29:09
And then like Paul's back in two weeks. Yeah, two weeks. Yeah. Yeah. Hey. Yep. Soccer never stops. All right. Premier League trio of picks, the three-pack. The weekly three-pack, what you got? Yep. Okay.
29:19
We'll start on... Let me get to the right notes here. We're gonna start tomorrow. All those notes. Yeah. A couple games on Saturday. Yeah. Nottingham Forest win versus Wolverhampton. Uh, plus 105 for Forest.
29:29
Forest was kind of expected to be in the relegation battle, and they still might be, but I like them a lot more than most people did. Uh, they've looked pretty good through two games. They smoked Southampton last week.
29:40
They outshot them 23 to five even though it was only a one-nil win.
29:43
And Wolves lost to Chelsea six to two, and they really haven't figured out the new system of their new manager, Gary O'Neil, and they're not very good defending the counter-attack.
29:52
Chelsea just tore them apart on the counter-attack. And guess what Forest can do pretty well, and they did well against Southampton? They counter-attack.
29:58
[laughs] So this is, again, take the better team at home, getting plus money, plus 105.
30:04
I'd play this down to minus 110 or so Uh, they're just, yeah, they're just better, and they have a lot of good players, more good players than some- a team that's kind of this level you would expect.
30:13
Uh, so Forest to win at home +105 is the price I got. All right, the Nottingham Forest counter-attackers +105 versus, uh, Wolverhampton. And then, uh, Brentford and Southampton, same day.
30:23
You got a, you got a thought here in a bet. Yeah. So we talked about Southampton just, they've had a lot of possession in their first couple games. They're newly promoted.
30:30
Possession is kind of what they built a lot of their success in the championship last season on. But again, their defense wasn't that good, and it hasn't been that good. It really wasn't against Forest especially.
30:40
They were up a man most of the game against, in the opener against Newcastle, so you can kind of throw that out the window. So Southampton, not that good.
30:47
Brentford, you know, I picked them to get into the top half, uh, at plus money before the season, and I will stand by that. They got, what, I think four points or three points from their first games.
30:57
Uh, the loss was to Liverpool last week, so nothing you're really concerned about there. Uh, Brentford does not have Ivan Toney. He's the guy who was suspended for a while for a betting incidence.
31:06
Uh, that's not the reason. He's just not back with the team yet. He may leave in the transfer window, but it doesn't really matter because they have enough talent up top to replace him in Bryan Mbeumo and others.
31:15
So Brentford home win -130. I think they're just a lot better. You're talking like a top 10 caliber team against a team that I think will be relegated, -130 is a pretty solid price at home. All right.
31:25
We're only, uh, two matches into the, uh, whole season, correct, at this point? Like, we're super duper early still. That's right. Yeah, no big takeaways- No... from anything. No big takeaways.
31:32
Like, sometimes you wanna extrapolate just for fun though. Um, can we, can we take away anything from the bottom of the table? Like, is somebody just god-awful? I mean, the
31:42
three re- the three newly promoted teams all kind of look like they're outclassed or haven't- Yeah... at least caught up.
31:46
So your Leicester, Southampton, Ipswich Town, uh, all look like they may just go straight back down.
31:52
But there's a few teams like, you know, Wolverhampton, uh, maybe Everton, that look like they might give them a run for their money toward- Yeah... the bottom of the table.
31:59
Leicester City will, will always have the Leicester City year though, so- That's-... there's always that... 2015, 2016 was- Yeah... one of the most unbelievable sports stories we'll ever see. It's incredible.
32:07
What was that, 5,000 to 1, something like that? 5,000 to one before the season. Yeah, to win, to win the Premier League. Uh, Sunday you have a play, and of course it is a Paul Carr total. What do you got?
32:17
This, yeah, here's your big game of the weekend, always one of the big games of any Premier League season, Manchester United and Liverpool. Uh, Liverpool, of course they're a third favorite for the title.
32:26
They're in fourth place through a couple of games. They have a pair of two-nil wins. Uh, Manchester United sit in the middle of the table right now. I like the under in this game.
32:34
We think of this matchup as kind of explosive high scoring between a couple perennial powers, but both have new managers in the last couple years, and Liverpool doesn't have Jürgen Klopp.
32:43
Even though it's two games, they've noticeably kind of slowed their pace, all the stats, you know, fewer possessions, not attacking as directly, et cetera.
32:51
So I just feel like this will be a game that both teams try to settle down a little bit instead of running the fast break like they kind of both tended to. Uh, so just less chaos in general between these two.
33:02
That's what I think we'll see. Could be kind of cagey, you know, 1-1, maybe someone sneaks a late goal, something like that. Just like the under three and a half at -130.
33:10
All right, Nottingham Forest over Wolverhampton, Brentford over Southampton on Saturday. That's tomorrow. And then Sunday, Man U and Liverpool under three and a half goals.
33:20
The rare under play, but it is three and a half for Paul Carr. Um, always check the juice, shop around from book to book. Paul, good luck. Appreciate it as always, sir. Thank you. Have a good weekend.
33:31
Paul Carr, @PaulCarr on Twitter. Kelly and I will come back. The last undefeated market in the NFL, who's it gonna be? Who we're betting on? That's next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:49
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Don't forget to check out our website, vsin.com.
33:56
Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides, some deep dive baseball stats in there, and everybody writing about every sport, every sport you can imagine in there.
34:06
Tyler Shoemaker on the WNBA as, uh, Caitlin Clark, uh, tries single-handedly to destroy everybody's under tickets on the fever. It seems like everybody had that. Now it's like, "Uh, are we gonna win this under?"
34:17
Yeah, what I pulled- I'm not involved... uh, yesterday, first, uh, first in WNBA history to hit, like, the points assisted three point mater- uh, three pointers made. Setting all kinds of- Yeah... rookie records, man.
34:27
Correct. Zach Cohen on the Heisman, uh, as we talked about yesterday. Uh, Adam Burke on his, uh, week one college football pick. Steve Mackin in the same. Wes Reynolds front and center. It's all at vsin.com.
34:38
Check it out. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Uh, always appreciate the feedback, best listeners ever, and I mean that, Buddhist Man. "The end of an era." He's talking [laughs], he's talking about us at The Shield.
34:50
"Glad I was able to make it over to The Shield to meet you, Kelly, and, uh, and Crack Man back in March."
34:55
V- uh, Via, uh, Via Con Dios, he says, "The Barrage, you never made it feel like we were running against the wind." That's a Seager, uh, Seager reference right there. We, we think. I don't know.
35:04
Maybe we'll be here on Monday. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. We don't know if we're not. I'm gonna hold my breath. All right, we'll see. Look at that, look at that helicopter view of, uh, The Shield here.
35:11
Nice job, guys back there. Don't, don't be shocked if for some reason we show up here on Monday [laughs]. [laughs] That's right, if we show up on Monday and we're like, "Hey, guys." It's gonna take a little while longer.
35:19
"Hey, guys." Still wearing the headphones. Uh, Trip Tepper, the, oh, he's commenting about my Mark Jones hits.
35:25
He goes, "The homer calls by Mark Jones was such a laughable distraction for an otherwise very entertaining game. Uh, Deion arrogantly censors the media and then in the post-game plays the victim on the backlash.
35:36
Um, Deion, you created this bleep storm." That according to Trip Tepper. Randy McKay, our buddy Randy McKay, your buddy Randy McKay, you guys hang out these days, don't you? No? Love Randy. Yeah, he's our guy.
35:47
Uh, he's a, uh, North Dakota guy or is he a South Dakota guy? I can never remember. North Dakota. He's a North Dakota guy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So he had, he, he obviously wanted North Dakota to win.
35:54
I'm sure he had bets on it too. But he says, "A great breakdown at the end of the game. Uh, I will add," he said, "that North Dakota State did have the wrong side of the refs many times. Might cost the extra 10 seconds.
36:05
Going forward, there will be nice value, uh, in Colorado games. Congrats to all North Dakota State backers."
36:11
Um, I was so locked into Osaka-Muchova that if I miss any of the refs things early in the game, then that's on me 'cause I was watching tennis.
36:18
Um, but I will say, I hope Randy doesn't think that that interference call was incorrect, that got Colorado into the position where they could have just run out the clock even though they chose not to.
36:31
'Cause that was definitely interference. Mm. I don't know if he's referring to that one or, or some other one. Uh, this is from Rick Olier starting Monday morning from, uh, 7:00 to 10:00 on VSAN, 7:00 to 9:00 on VSAN.
36:39
New hosts, Sigma Derby Machine, and a Walkman playing Bob Seger's greatest hits will talk you through the start of the NFL season. Uh, no. [laughs] It'll still be us. That's pretty good though.
36:47
[laughs] It'll still be us. Uh, okay. Last undefeated team, National Football League. Can, can I hit a couple news items real quick? Uh, please. Absolutely. Break, breaking news. Uh, breaking-ish news. Mm-hmm.
36:55
Uh, Mike McDaniel signs a contract extension with the Miami Dolphins through the 2028 season, so you've got that. Uh, and then just got this note from, uh, Mike Renner.
37:04
Uh, Travis Hunter only came off the field for two plays that entire game last night. Yeah. Moves from 50 to 1 to 15 to 1 in the Heisman market. Well, when I was a kid, Roy Green did that for the St.
37:15
Louis Cardinals, played offense and defense when he was a rookie, wide out and corner. He, uh- I don't remember anybody since then. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody.
37:23
I mean, he looked real good at wide receiver last night, I thought. Oh, he's, he's phenomenal. There's also like that one like- He's always been phenomenal...
37:30
it was like the 40-yard catch he had, or he made, he made a couple guys miss, but I'm like, "What?" It's like the whole...
37:36
When, when you have a special athlete like that, I love when they give them like 10 yards, like to work with. Oh, cushion. Yeah. And it's like Sanders... Yeah. 10 yards of cushion. Sanders just throws it out to him.
37:45
But also- It's like, yeah, he's gonna make a couple guys miss... but not just the deep ball. Like, he, some of the catches he makes when he tor- torts his body. Right. Like, how did he catch that?
37:52
Well, and the, yeah, that touchdown where it was just like, "Throw it up to me and I'll go get it," it's not like he's 6'6" out there.
37:57
By the way, the big NFL news yesterday, you, you bring up the, the Mike McDaniel extension. Mike, excuse me, Mike McDaniel extension. Correct. Sorry. Sorry, guys. We're gonna struggle all year. [laughs] Sorry.
38:05
It's gonna be tough. Um, but obviously the big news yesterday, Brandon Aiyuk, what do you know? Mm-hmm. Signs a deal with the Niners, four years, $120 million. I just have one question, Kelly.
38:15
Why couldn't he have done this weeks ago? Why? I don't have the answer for that, Gil. The, this contract was on the table for him.
38:22
I, I just, I get worried for these guys 'cause we keep seeing these, those injuries early with these guys that don't practice or play, and man, I, it just sucks.
38:31
Add Brand- add the Brandon Aiyuk contract story to, uh, candidates of all time waste of time stories. Yeah. You know? I, I do, I do. I just get worried these days for these injuries because I don't want...
38:42
I, I, I hate- Yeah... we, we talk about injuries.
38:44
It's such a large part of the NFL every single year, and I don't care what my bets are, I'd still rather see teams as healthy as possible, and it's, it really stinks when injuries w- occur partially because of reasons like this.
38:56
Kelly just wants fair play and no one to get hurt. That's right. That's what Kelly Tillmann's about. Stop getting hurt.
39:01
[laughs] No, but you're, it's a great point though, 'cause that is oftentimes the result of these holdouts. Yeah. And that's, we hope, we hope not. Uh, obviously Trent Williams- Not saying it's gonna happen. No...
39:11
it's just like we've seen it happen too many times. Trent Williams still absent with the San Francisco 49ers. But that, that is the bigger story. Much bigger.
39:18
Somehow, like we don't, like why are we not talking about that every single day? I try to, I try to talk about it every day. 'Cause you brought it up. Yeah.
39:22
I mean, like with Washington, like I mean, we've seen him do this before. It was a nightmare with Washington. What do you think, what makes you think he's gonna be playing before November?
39:30
That dude, and it was a medical thing in DC, right? Where he was like, "I don't like how you people diagnosed, misdiagnosed me." Mm-hmm. 'Cause he had serious health issues.
39:39
And he said, "I'm never playing for you again," and he never played for them again. He was like, "That's it."
39:43
So I don't know if he's gonna be that stubborn with what he wants here in San Francisco 'cause it's a different matter, but we'll see. Uh, last undefeated team in the NFL. We touched on this yesterday.
39:51
Um, I'd like to touch on it again. The 49ers are the short shot, plus 750, followed by the Lions at eight to one.
39:58
Then it's the Dolphins and the Chiefs at 10 to one, the Eagles at 12 to one, the Packers at 13 to one, the Bengals, as Matt Brown calls them, at 14 to one, and then the Jetropolitans, the New York Jetropolitans at 15 to one.
40:12
Texans, the only other team shorter than 20 to one. And I was mentioning this yesterday in case you missed it, that, uh, well, I'll add on to that, which is I believe that the Lions eight to one is...
40:25
I, I'll put it this way, and I, I related it to the last un- of the last winless market.
40:29
Again, the last winless market, to me, it is obvious that the Patriots ought to be the short shot, and unlike last year where we cashed Carolina 50 to one, that was a sexier pick.
40:40
New England is so clearly, uh, worthy of the short shot status in last winless. But there's the New York Giants team that if they could just lose to the Vikings in week one, they might lose out a long way.
40:53
I think the, I think the last undefeated is similar in that I think Detroit is the last undefeated equivalent to New England. Like, if you look at Detroit's schedule, because San, San Francisco to me, right?
41:05
I look at the, uh [smacks lips] the Niners' schedule. They play the Jets right off the bat, right? Mm-hmm. So that's already like hurdle number one. Um- Yeah, I actually, I, there's a couple I like in this.
41:16
I'll get to mine obviously, but the, the top of the board was not that attractive to me.
41:19
Not that attractive, 'cause the Niners not only play the Jets, but you know, a couple weeks after that they have to go at the Rams, and then they have at Seattle, and they have a Kansas City and Dallas game- Yeah...
41:29
before, before Halloween. Frankly, I don't, I actually don't- I don't, I don't- I don't know how they're the short shot actually. Yeah... get why they're the short shot at all.
41:35
Now, Detroit to me ought to be the short shot, and I would get why people would say that about Detroit. And by the way, that's not a, that's not a bad number either. This is another, another market, right?
41:44
Where the buy helps you early. The buy helps you early. That's right.
41:49
And again, read the rules because if you happen to, if you're playing the same day, let's say two teams are undefeated on the last day here at Circa, for instance. Mm-hmm. And one team loses early in the day,
42:01
and you happen to lose late in the day, the team that loses late in the day is the winner. I don't think I'll ever forget you cashing in on that. I, I- Like, what a- Well, it didn't end up mattering, but- Right.
42:09
Yeah, yeah, yeah. True... but I got it anyway 'cause I, I had already won it before I thought I had won it kind of thing.
42:13
But Detroit's schedule, by the way, just to let you know Uh, they do have a game against the Rams to open, which is not easy. But then it's Tampa, Arizona, Seattle at home, bye, that's big, at Dallas.
42:26
I mean, it's not the easiest thing in the world either, but then it's at Minnesota, Tennessee. That's not the easiest thing in the world either.
42:31
So again, I get to the Jets, which shout out to Will Hill, who talked about this on the show and has it in the, uh, VSiN Pro Football Betting Guide. 15 to 1.
42:39
If they somehow beat the Niners on Monday, which I feel is a big possibility, and I may even have, I already have an against the spread bet, I may have a money line bet on them. The Jets are the team, man, 15 to 1.
42:50
I think I'm gonna have a bet on this, Kelly. I think I'm gonna bet this. Um,
42:54
I like this, because after that game against the Niners, it's Tennessee, at Tennessee, home New England, home Denver, at Minnesota, home Buffalo, at Pittsburgh, at New England, and then you're at Halloween.
43:07
I think that's the bet. You? I like that. 15 to 1. I, you know what, though?
43:12
You're, you're, you're actually, the Lions one keeps, I'm, I'm keep coming back to now, because I don't know that I fully factored in the bye factor. The bye. Uh, like that's huge. Nothing is bigger than a bye year.
43:22
'Cause I'm kinda doing the same thing, too. Yeah. Or I'm kinda looking out to about, uh, about, uh, Halloween time. By the way- Like, Labor Day holiday right there...
43:29
for, for both undefeated and last winless, nothing better than a bye. Yeah, abs- yeah, absolutely. Yeah. So, I, the two I had written down were Je- Jets were up there for me. I do like that one.
43:40
Um, I'd written down the Eagles. My favorite, I think, is the Texans, actually. Texans, you get, you get at the Colts, Bears at home, at the Vikings, Jaguars at home, Bills at home, Patriots, Packers.
43:53
That's everything up to Halloween. Sorry, then the Colts at home again. Um- You're talk- you're talking Texans here? Yeah, Houston Texans. Mm-hmm. And you're getting a longer price on them. They were 20 to 1? 16 to 1.
44:04
16 to 1. Um, getting a longer price. I just thought there was a little bit more value down, down the board. I didn't think you have to look right at the top of the board.
44:11
However, I do think, go, I keep circling back to that Lions one. I think a- that might actually be the one. No, but that's a good call. Texans are, are viable there, too.
44:18
I, I think I am gonna bet the Jets, though, between now and the, uh, the beginning of the season. Six days away, NFL season commences. Chris, who's this guy? Chris Fallica, how do you pronounce this? Something like that.
44:29
Fox Sports, the Bear next with his college football.
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