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Aug 30, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 30, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 30, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN.
0:12
The sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Tillis still to come this hour. Jason Weingarten joins us from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
0:20
Bob Stoll, you know him as Dr. Bob. Uh, he will talk about week one macro trends in college football through the years, and talk about his, uh, process.
0:29
If you've ever been interested in breeding a serious bettor and doing things by math model, uh, Bob will give us a little, uh, overview on what he has done through his adult life, uh, in terms of, uh, math models and technical analysis.
0:41
We'll get into that. Um, and we should probably look at those, uh, US Open odds now that, uh, Carlitos has been bounced by Botic Van de Zandschulp.
0:49
By the way, Patrick Evertson, our buddy Patrick Evertson tweeted this last night. I... Per M- per BetMGM's N- per BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton, pardon me, a bettor bet 25 large, $25,000 on Alcaraz- Oh...
1:06
at minus 10,000 to win 250 American dollars. Oh, Steve. [laughs] Fezzik? No, maybe not. Eh, maybe. Maybe not Fezzik. That is, that is rough. [laughs] That is rough. Oh, that's brutal.
1:23
That is brutal. Uh, and then just one from Giuseppe Betta, who says, uh, "In broad daylight officially added to my day-to-day lexicon after yesterday's show.
1:30
I will patiently wait for the day when someone understands my reference and replies with a nod and a simple ANG." [laughs] Thank you very much, Giuseppe. Love that name, by the way, uh, if that is your real name.
1:40
Ladies and gentlemen, this is his real name, it's Chris Felica. He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You know him as The Bear, the, uh, emperor of the Bear Bets Pod empire- [laughs]...
1:49
over there at Fox Sports. What's happening, man? College football's back. I- i- it is. You know, we, we added another little, uh, fiefdom to the Bear Bets empire.
1:57
Uh, myself, Bruce Feldman, uh, this afternoon will have a little, little, little show, a little Twitter spaces which will be released in p- podcast form after that.
2:05
But yeah, Fire- Fire Bet Bets Pod, and Bruce and I have some questions, and hopefully we'll be able to have some time and answer them on the pod. But yeah, i- it's, uh, it, it, it's awesome. And, and just the...
2:15
It, it sucked last night to have the, the Alcaraz match and the, you know, Sacco match going on at the same time- Oh... as the Colorado, North Dakota State game. Totally.
2:23
It was like multiple screen, like sensory overload. Totally was. What was... Okay, I, I talked about Deion and Colorado and North Dakota State a little while ago. Mm-hmm. Uh, what was your biggest single takeaway?
2:34
And I know there was a week zero, but it really felt like it began in earnest last night. What was your biggest single takeaway from the games? Yeah, I, I, I think two.
2:41
Number one would be the Florida State game, uh, last week, was that in fact it wasn't a fluke. Like, like if it was a, the way Miami lost to Georgia Tech last year or whatever, but for Georgia...
2:53
Like Florida State didn't turn the ball over, Florida State had one penalty. They just got whipped on the line of scrimmage and got beat. That would be concerning to me.
3:01
[laughs] Like if it was a fluke loss, okay, it happens every now and then, but to just get beat as a double digits favorite would be concerning. And, and then segue into last night.
3:10
I know it's pr- look, you are either in the I love Colorado camp, I love Deion Sanders, or I hate Colorado and I hate Deion. So there are no real in-betweens, uh, for the most part. But I...
3:21
It's going to be very interesting as the year goes on to see if Travis Hunter, uh, can maintain... Look, I, I don't know if he's gonna be sitting out two plays ev- every game, or he'll be sitting out more.
3:34
But i- if he can... I mean seven for 132 in three, and then the impact he has defensively, I don't know how many games Colorado i- is going to win.
3:43
But I think if we're looking maybe, maybe sitting here now and we're looking back at the end of the year and he has close to 1,000 yards receiving from that great wide receiver room that they have there in Boulder, and I know you like rooms- Love rooms...
3:55
traditionally. [laughs] Love them. But- Rooms and buildings... hey, whatever you- Rooms and buildings. [laughs] Yes. But, uh, he has more of an impact than Charles Woodson ever had offensively.
4:04
And I think you can kind of shoot holes in like all of these quarterbacks that are above him right now. I think he has a real legit chance to win the Heisman.
4:13
Now he's 25 to one now, I see him in a lot of places, uh, DraftKings, FanDuel, and a lot of the apps that people have.
4:19
I still think that's worth a play because I think the quarterbacks that are listed ahead of him, I still think there are some question marks.
4:24
But I think it's gonna be pretty hard at the end of the year to say that this guy is not, uh, the best or one of the couple of best players in the sport.
4:32
Well, as we know, there's like 1,000 Heisman voters, and I'm not even being flippant, right? Great. That's like legit- No, you, no, it is. It is. There's- I think it's, what, 960 or something like that?
4:40
Something like that. I am not one, by w- I'm not one, by the way. I don't, I don't want to be- How are you not one? Who the hell knows.
4:46
But I, I don't, I don't want to be thrown in that whole NBA, like voter award controversy. I don't have a vote.
4:52
I can influence the vote with stats and the things that I talk about, but, uh, yeah, I actually do not have a vote. Right. I think we're cutting down these day- days down to 870 I see. Oh. Oh, good. Oh. Good.
5:03
Weeding a few out. Perfect. [laughs] So, so Fewtax vote is even more important now is what you're saying. [laughs] Oh, great. Great. Ah, wonderful. Uh, [laughs]
5:12
okay, so but let me just ask one, one follow-up to the old, uh... 'Cause I thought, I thought he should've been a Heisman, you know, before he got hurt last year. I was like same, same theory, right? What's the question?
5:22
The question is what does Colorado have to finish for this not to be an issue? Do they have to get to a bowl game? Do they have to win six? It's probably, it's probably bowl eligibility I would think.
5:32
Yeah, I mean, what bowl running one with, with a losing record, that was the allure of Notre Dame in the, in that era though.
5:38
So but yeah, I, I think it's gonna take bowl eligibility for him to, uh, to get it done, and I think that will be a conversation if that happens. Okay.
5:45
Of the marquee match-ups in college football this weekend, uh, do you have a bet in any of those? Let's start there at the top.
5:51
Yeah, I, yeah, I played under 48 and a half in Clemson Georgia, and I played a Clemson team total under as well. I think this is a Clemson offense that I think is going to struggle against Georgia.
6:01
They, I don't think Clemson's wide receivers are great anymore.
6:05
Like they, they had that great run of wide receivers, whether it was with- Renfrow and, and, and, and Mike William- Williams and the other guys that they've had.
6:12
I don't think this is the, uh, same type of group that they've had. I think they've regressed there. Uh, Filmoff is a nice back, but he's not, uh, an elite difference-maker.
6:22
Uh, Georgia typically does very well in these, like, big-time non-conference games in the regular season, shutting opponents down. Uh, I don't think...
6:32
I, I think the, the word is, like, E- Etienne from Clem- from Georgia, rather, he may be suspended, so that's another weapon off of Ge- Georgia offense.
6:41
Th- I, I think this has under- underwritten all over it and, and maybe, like, a, like, a 27-10 type Georgia win, 'cause I think Clemson's defense is good enough to hold their own in the, on the line of scrimmage and, and make Georgia work for it.
6:55
But I think they're gonna struggle mightily to score points. And Dabo's just gonna go with his anti-transfer portal thing till, till the end? Yeah. That's his thing? Yeah, e- ex- exactly.
7:04
It, it's the shame because, again, you can have your opinion of it. You can love it. You can hate it.
7:09
But if schools like Florida State, Ohio State, Georgia, Miami, LSU, L- they're all doing it to build their teams and filling holes, you've gotta do it.
7:19
It, it, it's adapt or die, and that's, and it's no coincidence that the, uh, that the, the demise of the, the, the dynasty era of Clemson has coincided with the, uh, in- influx of the transfer portal and NIL.
7:32
So, uh, unless they start plugging holes, uh, I think this is the kind of the, the ceiling where we are for Clemson. Yeah. And, and then I'm, I'm, I'm shocked as well here.
7:41
I laid eight with Penn State against West Virginia. Uh, I see some seven and a halves out there now, uh, whi- which really surprises me.
7:48
I mean, the, the Mountaineers obviously now a big, uh, a big, uh, I don't wanna say public dog 'cause I don't know if it's public money or sharp money or whatever, but it's, uh, this number's come down quite a bit.
7:58
I just worry about West Virginia in this spot, uh, facing a, a, a defense that they don't typically see a defense with this type of speed and size in the Big 12 like they're gonna see tomorrow from Penn State.
8:10
The three teams that West Virginia played last year that finished the game, the season ranked, Mountaineers lost all of them by an average of 20 points a game.
8:17
Uh, James Franklin is a very profitable head coach, uh, in, in games and from a Ralph Michaels stat.
8:24
Uh, if you go back and look at games over the last three years, they've been favored by between seven and, like, 24 points.
8:29
It get wording, it get, it basically eliminating the, the group of five, uh, F- non-FBS teams that backups are gonna play. Last three years, they're 16 and 0-1 against the spread.
8:39
So, so it's like they win and cover these games. I'm not necessarily of the belief that Drew Allar is this great, uh, guy who people think he's gonna be.
8:48
But, but, but I think the defense is gonna be obviously great again. I, I think the running backs with Allen and Singleton will be fine.
8:55
Uh, I did la- I, I laid the eight and I'm sorry I didn't get seven and a half, but you can get a, you can get a better number now than I did.
9:00
So, uh, those are two plays and I end up not a marquee game, but I did lay 10 with Rice, uh, against Sam Houston State. Wow, I'm, I'm a lot of minuses on my card this week, which, uh- [laughs]... that worries me.
9:11
Wor- wor- worries me a little bit. But, uh- What could go wrong? Yeah. E- e- exactly. But Mike Bloomgren has been afforded time,
9:18
uh, by Rice to kind of build his program up, and I think he has it in a really good spot now. They got some guys back on offense. You're bringing EJ Warren to the quarterback from Temple.
9:27
And, and you're, you're laying points against a Sam Houston team that didn't necessarily make a great transition last year to the FBS. So it'll probably take a little bit more time for them.
9:36
So, uh, I, I think Rice is a sleeper in that league this year to win and, uh, hopefully they'll, uh, win by double digits tomorrow. Non-betting question to close. Just to, uh- Yeah... just curious.
9:45
For if, if you didn't have any bets, if betting didn't exist and you were just like, "This is the game I'm most fascinated to see," just from a college football hardo perspective, what game would that be? Miami, Florida.
9:56
Uh, and, and that's eliminating the alumni, uh, bias that, that I have because I think you've got, obviously Miami is a hype team this year, a team that's heard all off-season about the additions to the transfer portal, uh, how they c- they are now an ACC favorite.
10:12
Uh, and then you have on the flip side, Florida, where they've already fired Billy Napier and, uh, your win total's four and a half. You're gonna go four and eight. You're terrible. You got no talent.
10:20
Now you're a home underdog on, on your home f- on, obviously you're a home underdog on your home field.
10:24
Uh, and you've heard about how you've sucked all summer, uh, against a Miami team that has, what, won 10 games once, uh, in like the last 15, 16 years, and has not won a game like this in a long time.
10:36
Uh, can all these transfers come together and deliver and perform? Uh, a- as a Miami alum, this is a terrible spot, uh, for the Canes tomorrow, and I hope they can get out of Gainesville with a win.
10:46
Sorry about your Mira Andrejeva future, but I know we got some others that are super live. Yeah, we, no, no, we're, we're okay with this.
10:52
We got, uh, we got the, the, the, the Iga over one and a half slams from earlier in the year. Yeah. Uh, which, which we got going. We got the Badosa.
10:59
We got the Badosa tickets, uh, 550 on the, on the, on the quarter, 27/1 to reach the final, 50/1 to win.
11:06
And then the day when Carlos Alcaraz rolled his ankle on the practice court, which I think was like after I had done the, uh, segment with you, I grabbed Jack Draper at 16/1 to win the quarter. Hmm.
11:19
So that wasn't the worst possible result for me last night. Okay. Yeah, I'm, I'm pumped to be- Okay... besides, besides the Alcaraz part, which was only just a little thing, they're all looking great.
11:28
And the, the seas are parting for Iga. Uh, Muchova- Yes, they are... and Kalinskaya in Q2. Badosa, by the way, I'm a little worried about that Badosa match today. Little worried. I am too. Yeah. I am too.
11:38
Against Elena Gabriela Rousses. Chris Felica, everybody. @bearbetspod. Pods plural. @chrisfelica on Twitter. [laughs] The Bear. Thank you, sir. No problem. Have a great weekend, everyone. You too. Jason Weingarten next.
11:50
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game from Barca to the deep. Barca, the barrage. Skill Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
12:07
Uh, by the way, did you catch, uh, Circus Survivor, uh, the quest for $9.2 million, episode five last night, Kelly Bidlin? No, I'm still working my way, uh, to the, to the finish line on that.
12:15
Uh, the producers, uh, Shalan- uh, Steven Shalansky and, uh, James Ferris. Shalansky texted me. He said, uh, "Hey, can we, uh, film for th- this year's?
12:23
Can you come by, uh, and, and get some film for th- for this coming one?" And I was like, "I kind of s- uh, d- I, I got nothing else to say," I said. I said, "I said everything." He goes, "Oh, you'll think of something."
12:34
[laughs] So there you go. Uh, I- I guess we're fi- we're filming for this year's, which will be the quest for, I don't know, 11 or 12 million. I don't know. We'll find out.
12:43
So anyway, I'm gonna go enter Circa Survivor and, uh, and go film it. Current overlay 1.2. 1.2 current overlay. 8,700 people in. Only 3,600 people signed up for millions so far. 80. How many, how many for millions?
12:57
Kind of sounding familiar. 30, 3,600. Okay. 3,656 if you wanna be specific 'cause it's right on the board. Um, I'll go sign up today. Major League Baseball, uh, August update.
13:07
By the way, September numbers are up, and I will have a bet by the end of the show, Kelly, and I will announce it for September.
13:13
Uh, because the, uh, the old, the old flight to San Francisco is gonna come soon enough, and I won't be able to make it i- if I don't make it today. But here for August. Oh, okay. [laughs] Last couple days.
13:22
By the end of the show. Wow. [laughs] What? Oh, yeah, by the end of the show. Uh, here it is. Diamondbacks 18 and 7 in the month of August. They lost last night, as did the Padres.
13:32
Um, so the Diamondbacks at 18 and 7 clinging to a one-win lead over the Dodgers, who are 17 and 8 for the month, and the Padres, who are 17 and 9 for the month. All NL West final in August.
13:45
Cubbies at 16 and 8, the Brewers at 16 and 9, who have a double header today, the only other teams that are mathematically alive here. Remember, at Circa, ties are broken by fewest wins. Ties of wins.
14:00
Uh, most wins are, are broken by fewest wins, followed by run differential. At William Hill Caesars- Fewest losses... dead heat. Fewest losses. What did I say? Fewest wins.
14:07
Yeah, most wins tiebreaker settled by fewest losses, followed by run differential. Um, and then of course, dead heat at William Hill Caesars. So there it is. Diamondbacks with two against the Dodgers, right?
14:18
They're playing each other. Wow, what a finish. So again, the Padres, the Cubs, and the Brewers, they could be the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. You never know, Kelly.
14:27
You know how much you love that expression. [laughs] Um, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Man, that is, if you were holding one of those tickets- Oh... Dodgers or Diamondbacks, man, you're in for a weekend.
14:35
What a weekend it is. Um, okay, and then most, and then the best record overall in Major League Baseball with some of us have a, uh, ticket in. I have a one on the Diamondbacks. Diamondbacks lose yesterday.
14:45
Dodgers win, so now the Diamondbacks are four behind. The best record in all of baseball, uh, the Dodgers in first place. They're the first team to 80 wins this year are the Dodgers. Um, no one likely to get to 100.
14:58
That ain't gonna happen this year. So the Dodgers, um, oh, we, uh, go here. The Dodgers with a, uh, you know, again, incremental.
15:04
It's been a, it's been a scrum at the top, but the Dodgers with 80 wins at the top, 80 and, uh, um, you can tell I'm, I'm filibustering, trying to get this up. There you go. 80 and 54. Phillies 79 and 55.
15:15
Yankees, uh, right behind them at 78 and 56. Brewers and Orioles, actually Brewers at 77 and 56, and then it dips a little bit in the loss column to the Orioles and Diamondbacks and Guardians. But there you go.
15:28
Dodgers right now leading the fray, if you will. How about the Braves making their way up to 10th?
15:35
The Braves, we have the Braves to miss the playoffs as our pick, and I have a bet on it in real life, as our Vosin network-wide show versus show versus show kind of thing about best, uh, you know, most money cashed on an MLB future.
15:49
We have the Braves to miss the playoffs. At one point, the Mets took a lead on them, and now it's, well, it was four games. Now it's back to three after the Braves lose yesterday and the Mets win. But the Braves,
16:01
you know, as not quite as close to the top of the division, but three games clear of the Mets now. Plus 450 now for them to miss. Yeah. Well, good CLV for us, but that's about it right now.
16:13
Come on, Braves, lose some games. Uh, Jason Weingarten joins us, ladies and gentlemen, from a cloud of smoke somewhere in California at Spreadapedia. What's happening, Jason? How you doing, man? Pretty good. Laid back.
16:25
Look at him. Laid back. Um- Might not have money. There's money on his mind. That's what he's got. Jason, what do you got in baseball today? Not much.
16:34
Uh, honestly couldn't, couldn't tell you I bet anything, uh, anything good today. It's, uh, kinda, kinda getting close to wrapping it up. Maybe it might, might actually be my last weekend of MLB for the regular season.
16:47
Are you know... Are, are you... Do, do you do that every year? Are you known to do that where you just back off in September?
16:52
No, I, I'm, I mean, it just, every year I make good money betting baseball, and I lose it in September, so maybe this year I'll just go read some books or something. I don't- Oh, go read some books...
17:03
I don't, I don't really- All right... you know, why, why. Uh- Definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. That it is. That I have heard it is. Um, okay.
17:14
So just tell me right now, do we have the, the 12 teams that are in playoff position right now, you believe those are the 12 teams that are gonna be in the postseason?
17:22
Like, there's not gonna be much in and out drama here at the end, or is somebody vulnerable? Uh, there could be some fluctuations in the division races. You know, Dodgers aren't guaranteed to win the division this year.
17:36
Seems like, uh, I, I mentioned last, uh, last show Tyler Glasnow. It's kind of a, a worry for them, and now all of a sudden he might not pitch again this year.
17:46
And you, you know, you mentioned Dodgers still have best record, first team to 80 wins, but if you look at, at the, their rotation and stuff, you'd think the sky's falling. So, um, I don't know.
17:56
I, I think Dodgers are still just heads and shoulders above everybody else. Like I said, 80 wins and they seem to be having a, a bad year. Right. But in terms of the make or miss playoffs though, still those 12, though?
18:09
Getting back to the question Yeah, I mean, who do, who do you think? The Mets? Uh- I don't- The Red Sox? I, I- None of those really... no, I don't feel, I don't feel like anybody's dropping out.
18:17
I don't feel like anybody is. Twins, some would say. Tigers. I don't. Tigers are only five, five games back. Yeah. Tigers, all of a sudden, with, with the Cy Young. I don't know. All right.
18:26
So as you look at this, 'cause I don't, I don't know if I saw any exactas that are still up here, because I think... I mean, again, I've been sort of preaching about this is the year in Major League Baseball, right?
18:34
This is the year to take a flyer. And I know, you know, I always end it by saying, "Watch, the Yankees and Dodgers will play in the World Series of all years." But- I got 'em up. What do you want?
18:42
But- Dodgers beat Yankees 13 to one... Dodgers beat Yankees 13 to one? No, what I'm saying... Okay, so w- take... Uh, I don't care about the exactas. I did match-ups. Are match-ups still up? I'm sorry about that.
18:52
Match-ups, 'cause I have, again, I have Diamondbacks versus Royals in the World Series, regardless of result, 400 to one. That is interesting. I do not see those up.
18:59
Jason, what would be a, what would be a combination that you would be interested in knowing the number for? Padres. Padres, Yankees, I guess. I don't know. Padres, Yankees.
19:11
What would be Yankees over Padres or Padres over Yankees? Putting... We're completely destroying Kelly Doos live. Kelly loves what I do.
19:17
No, I, I, I don't know if I've ever seen them have the exactas up without the match-up also as an option, but the match-ups, uh, are not up. That's what I'm saying. It's...
19:24
Match-ups, match-ups is usually a separate category. Yeah, I prefer, I prefer match-ups to the exactas, personally, but yeah. Me too. I'm all about the match-ups. So it, it would be a, it would be terrible to lose that
19:33
on an exacta, so gotta, you gotta go match-ups. Padres, Yankees for you. You think the Padres are a team that is set up for post-season success, is what you're saying.
19:43
I mean, they have a good top of the rotation with Cease and Musgrove and Michael King all of a sudden. They have producing outfielders that they didn't expect to have this year, replacing Juan Soto.
19:54
It's, it's a fine team, you know? Like- Let's, let's do a thing-... anything can happen in the playoffs... let's do it the opposite way. Let's do it the opposite way, 'cause that's the more trite question.
20:03
Give me the team, give me the club that is going to make the playoffs where you're like, "You know what? They're not set up well for the playoffs.
20:09
This is a team that is a regular season team that can perform over 162, but if you stick them in a playoff format, they're more likely to fail." Dodgers. Dodgers. Done. From what you were saying before.
20:21
'Cause they just, the, the pitching. It's every year, the pitching. You know, like Yamamoto and Glasnow. Now it's like maybe you get one of them for the playoffs. I mean, Yamamoto's on his way back.
20:32
But you just never know. One bad game out of your ace, and all of a sudden you're starting Bobby Miller or who knows who in a elimination game in a series, and it just, it's...
20:42
You know, stuff, stuff gets out of hand quick when you run out of pitching. Well, um, Yankees fall in that category too for you, for different reasons, for offensive reasons? Yeah. I mean, it's...
20:53
The, like, the Yankees is, just as a, like as a fan base, you know, they have a bad week or two and everyone's freaking out. I still think they're probably fine.
21:01
Um, I'd, I'd be less worried about their lineup in the playoffs, 'cause look, like, at the end of the day, if Soto and, uh, Aaron Judge don't come through, Soto and Aaron Judge don't come through, like, you wanna be in that position.
21:14
You want those guys in the middle of your lineup. You know, I'd still, I'd still take the Yankees pretty much probably over anybody in the, in the American League, other, other than the Astros.
21:24
I think the Astros are coming on strong and have a, a good team. Um, but for the most part, I, I still like the Yankees here. All right. Any- 33 to one on that match-up.
21:33
Thank you, associate producers Chris Felica and Michael Monasano for texting in. [laughs] 33 to one, Padres Yankees match-up. What's my Diamondbacks Royals match-up now, by the way? I'm curious. [laughs] I thought...
21:43
That one happened in front of you. They just texted me it. [laughs] Oh. Get Felica and Monasano on that, for God's sakes. Got, like... We, we got proxy producers over here. Uh, Jason, thank you as always.
21:52
Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Talk to you later. Jason Weingarten from under a cloud of smoke, Southern California. That smoke was heavy today.
22:00
Now, can I interest you in the, the to win division and World Series market for you NL West lovers? Uh... Diamondbacks is 75 to one, Padres is 75 to one. Yeah, but they still gotta overcome the Dodgers is the issue.
22:14
That's why it's so long. Right. Um, and then you have to win the World Series, so you're, it's a part... I, I want no part of that. Okay. Yeah. I mean, you got a piece of them to finish with, as the one seed, right?
22:22
I got a piece of them in everything, right? I got a number one seed, I have the- I'm just trying to get you to add to your portfolio [laughs]... best record. Yeah, no, no.
22:28
But that's a s- that, that to me is a dumber one than the rest. Okay. Yeah, 'cause you gotta do two things there. Why do that to yourself? It's hard enough. Uh, we'll come back.
22:35
I will actually make a baseball bet for September most wins. Dr. Bob, though, on the other side with his college football process and week one trends on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:51
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, don't forget, the NFL season's six days away.
22:57
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23:06
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23:17
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23:29
Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Jamie Layville on Twitter says, uh, "Moving on from Bar Canada? My guys never said moving up, LOL. ANG live from the old McDonald's location.
23:41
[laughs] So glad you're both staying in the same time slot. A man can only take so much change at my age. Have a great weekend, gentlemen."
23:49
It was nice of Derek to build us a whole brand new studio down there where the McDonald's used to be. Yes. That was very nice of him. I heard they left the hash brown machine in there for you, too, so.
23:57
So I, I'm just gonna... The hash brown machine. [laughs] Machine, yeah. A fryer. So I'm just gonna be pumping in hash browns the whole show.
24:02
Oh, don't worry, I'm gonna produce for you and I'll have a little fryer going off to the side. Listen, if you, uh, if you take down the McDonald's, just leave the hash brown machine.
24:09
That's all we care about Uh, ladies and gentlemen, this man is a pioneer in s- in, uh, predicting the outcome of sporting events through mathematical model and technical analysis, but he hates the term pioneer.
24:20
He prefers legend. It's Dr. Bob- [laughs]... courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Bob? [laughs] I said that once. Oh, yeah. Haunting me ever since. [laughs] Yeah, you did. One time, Bob.
24:32
That's all it takes. [laughs] That's all it takes. I have a sushi story. Yeah. One time, all it takes. Believe me. Um- Yeah. Yeah... all right. So, so re- refresh our memory, and you can only...
24:41
You know, you don't have to take much time, but you're still the season win total that is still kind of there. Is Iowa State over? Yeah, there aren't that many.
24:49
I mean, I released 13, and I think 12 are, are out of range. Yeah. Um, I had Iowa State over seven-and-a-half up to minus 160 odds, and it's right around there, but yeah. Okay.
25:00
Got a good start last night with Jacksonville State- Yes... getting crushed as a, as a favorite. So our under seven-and-a-half there is on a good start. On a good start, absolutely. Okay.
25:10
Let's, let's talk about more macro things, because you are- you don't have... You, you were saying you don't really have a best bet this weekend, you were telling me. Well, I get... Well, last week- Besides-...
25:19
when I was on, I talked about, talked about USC, and I took plus six- Yeah... uh, for my client, and that dropped the line to four-and-a-half. It might be five now.
25:28
Uh, just a, you know, half unit play at, at four-and-a-half or five on USC. Um, and I went over the reasoning last week- Yeah... and it was a best bet at plus six, but that w- that's, that's it. I, I, I tend to...
25:39
I have a lot of good stuff in week two usually, uh, but week one I tend to lay low and, and, uh, and see what happens in week one. Okay.
25:46
I think, so I think this gives us a good opportunity to lay this out, 'cause a lot of people are not gonna be familiar with you from, from year to year.
25:52
So explain, if you could, how you come up, before you give us a, uh, a flurry of week two picks next week, and you've, you've given us a flurry of season wins already.
26:03
Explain to folks how you come up with your college football priors.
26:07
Well, I mean, it's, uh, it's similar to what other people do I'm sure, but I'm- I've been a little bit better at it, 'cause mine's more of an art form than a pure algorithm.
26:15
Um, I, I, I tabulate returning production in every category you can imagine.
26:21
Rushing, percent of rushing yards returning, percent of passing yards, percent of offensive line starts, percentage of tackles for loss, sacks, passes defended, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
26:31
And I have algorithms that can take the returning production and recent years' performance and give me a pretty good baseline to how teams will perform in each component of, of the team.
26:42
Running offense, passing offense, run defense, pass defense, et cetera. And from that I have wiggle room. There's also coaching, uh, tendencies, uh, you know, like,
26:54
you know, Riley at USC, he's never, he's never had a bad quarterback. In fact, uh, maybe we talked about this before, Williams is the second worst quarterback he's ever had in terms of compensated yards per pass play.
27:05
Only Spencer Rattler was worse than Williams, and people think, "Williams, oh my God, what are they gonna do without Williams?" Well, Miller Moss was pretty damn good in the bowl game last year.
27:12
[laughs] Uh, they're gonna be fine.
27:14
Um, you know, so I look at coaching history, et cetera, et cetera, and I come up with, you know, I adjust every component based on the algorithms, and then, you know, kind of feel, art form, a lot of it is, and I have a range.
27:26
And, um, anyway, it works. I mean, my priors are, you know, have proven to be really good.
27:31
So, um, odd that I don't pull a lot of, you know, I don't do a lot of first, first week betting despite the fact my, my priors are good, but they're even better in week two, so.
27:39
Well, I just, so I just- It's like- Yeah, and I just wanna give people an indication. So you have your math model, which you have layered through the years.
27:46
You, sometimes you add layers, sometimes you subtract if you feel like it's not, like, the way to go. And so it's, it's always a, it's always an, like you said, it's a bit of an art form.
27:55
And then you have the technical analysis, which is a fancy way of saying you've got a database- Trends... yeah, of trends. And I know a lot of people are, are trend adverse.
28:05
I happen to be as well, but I don't, I'm not one of these people who blanket and make that statement, "They all are, are meaningless." They're not all meaningless. And when you have- No, they're not all meaningless.
28:13
Yeah.
28:13
In fact, um, you know, the NFL and the model, you know, the last seven years has been 58.7 or 58.8%, you know, winners, and the model itself is, is, is good, but when the, when there's some situational technical stuff going against the, a model play,
28:33
the model plays are 50/50. But when there's not, then the model plays are really good.
28:37
So the model overall might be in the 54, 55% range, but when you exclude the games where there's some technical stuff or situational stuff going the opposite way, that moves it up to 58%.
28:47
So people, people don't know 'cause they don't track it. I've been tracking this stuff for 20 years. I, I don't base bets on situations of trends, but they will keep me off of games. So that's... You know, I, I- Yeah...
28:59
go by my model, and the situational stuff, the trends will keep me off of games sometimes, but it won't, I won't bet a game purely on a trend.
29:07
Bob, I'm- So I'm a, I'm a math model guy, but I do pay attention, 'cause they do work.
29:11
I do track how well these things work, and in general, significant situational stuff will be in the 53 and a half percent range, which is good enough to keep you off a game if, if you, you know, if you've got something like that.
29:23
Yeah. I hope it, I hope someone out there, at least one person out there i- you know, listens to this and gets inspired by it if they really want to, you know, approach sports betting seriously.
29:32
Like, these are the kinds of people, um, that have done it the best, and that you should model, quote unquote, not trying to punt, not trying to make a pun here, model yourself after.
29:40
And Bob, I will just say to you on air what, what I've said to, uh, what I've said privately. Carl Sack, uh, was here a couple weeks ago, and Carl and I said on air, we are both so much
29:53
richer and more, you know, w- we would not be the handicappers we are today had we not sat at your, at your knee, if you will, and learned from you, one of the greats.
30:05
So I just wanna say to you on air what, what we've said in private. No, I appreciate that. Yeah. Yeah, it's just- Yeah. I appreciate that... it's in- invaluable, that kind of history.
30:12
What about week one, uh, trends that have been tried and true over the years in college football?
30:19
Well, uh, you know, if you've played football, if you've played high school football or college football and, and you're in your summer practices, the defense always seems to have a one-up on the offense.
30:27
And that's 'cause it just takes the offense time to get a rhythm, get their timing, et cetera. That carries over. Week one unders in the NFL, there's a tendency for, for games to go under in week one of the NFL.
30:37
It works that way in college football. In fact, the first two weeks in college football, uh, tend to go under. Uh, I've been logging totals in, in my, in one database that I use, uh, since 2013, so 11 seasons.
30:49
Uh, in, in games between two FBS teams, uh, the unders the first two weeks of the season are 54.9%. That's, that's a lot of games over 11 years, all of college football. Uh, 55% unders the first two weeks of the season.
31:02
Now, less competitive games tend to be higher scoring.
31:06
So if you limit it to only games in which one team is, you know, unless a team is favored by less than 17, so if the spread is less than 17, then the unders in college football the last 11 years, the first two weeks of the season, are 60%.
31:20
60%. And so, and so- Say that, say that, say that one again, Bob, just in case anybody missed that. Say that one again. Yeah. It's fir- first two weeks of the season, I only track FBS versus FBS, so if, you know...
31:30
And if the line is less than 17 points, so you exclude the big favorite games, which can sometimes be blowouts and those tend to go more over than under, but spreads less than 17, first two weeks of the season, 60% under the last 11 years.
31:42
Last 11 years. Solid. That's a lot of games. Yes, it is. It's a lot of games. And after a certain point- Anyway... it becomes very meaningful. The sample size becomes very meaningful. Yeah. Yeah.
31:53
So I adjust my ratings two points lower in week one and two. I adjust my mo- yeah, my, my, my mo- my predicted total two points lower on weeks one and two. About as actionable- And-... as we can get right there, yeah.
32:06
That's interesting. And that makes intuitive sense- Yeah... to some degree, doesn't it? Yeah, it definitely does. I mean, it's, um, you know, defense is always, it's e- it's easier to play defense.
32:17
You don't really need timing for defense. Yeah. Sure, there could be confusion in the secondary, et cetera, but offenses take a while to get their rhythm. I was a quarterback.
32:25
I mean, I, it took a while when you get new receivers, new plays, et cetera, just takes a while to get your timing down, uh, and which plays work the best, et cetera. Later in the season, offenses tend to get better.
32:36
Any other trend you wanna share here in the last 30 seconds? Anything else? Yeah, you know, um, home teams, uh, in week one, um, the last 14 years, since 2010, um,
32:47
FBS teams, like if, if FBS versus FBS teams, uh, home teams are 303, 237 and eight against the spread in week one the last 14 years. That's 56.1%. That does not include this year.
33:00
Um, all home teams are 15, eight and one so far against the number. So I guess it's working, you know, for some FBS versus FCS games because it's [laughs] th- those are going to the home team also.
33:11
Now, there's some, there's stuff here that makes it even better.
33:13
If the opposing team has revenge from a previous season's loss, if a, if the road team's coming in with revenge, it's about 50%, so if you exclude those, you get 57.3% winners just on home teams blind, 55 and 27 the last two years.
33:27
Bob, always fascinating, man. I appreciate it very much. Thank you so much. We'll talk to you next week. All right, buddy. Bob Stoehl, everybody, @drbobsports, @drbobsports on Twitter.
33:37
My September most wins baseball bet, I've made it. I will share it next. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on A Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at The D. Is this our last segment at The D? We don't know. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Biblin. Is this our last segment with headphones? Could it be?
34:04
What's everybody betting on here, Kelly? I have no idea. What's the crowd? What's going on here? I'm trying to figure out.
34:07
I feel like there was three bets made throughout the entire show, and then there was a, all of a sudden a line of seven people. I mean, I know I'm about to announce my MLB September wins, but jeez.
34:16
[laughs] That was quick. Hey, there's a 9:40 first pitch- That's probably-... specific time, but-... probably what it is, unless they're betting US Open tennis or something.
34:24
Um, by the way, the tennis play today is, uh, Elise Mertens plus 199 against, uh, Maddie Keys. That's the only one that I, uh, that I played after a stellar day yesterday, five and oh clean sweep, 13 and oh on sets.
34:36
Uh, T- Tim Lawson texts, he says, uh, he says, uh, quote, "That smoke was heavy today," unquote. Yes, I mean, wasn't it? I wasn't lying. Um, J- this is, we get tweets at Betting The Book.
34:47
Jalen Warren Stan Account, he said, "Who did you just have on?" That was Dr. Bob, drbobsports, drbobsports.com. Legend in the business. Trust the glove. No, no, not trust the glove.
34:59
3JackH3131 says, "Always great to hear Dr. Bob's insight on college football. Makes it so I can't feel my face." [laughs] Do I need to, do I need to say that reference again?
35:10
The old Weeknd song, The Weeknd, I Can't Feel My Face.
35:14
When Bob was dating his, uh, soon-to-be wife, soon-to-be fiance, but when he was just dating her, uh, that song was popular and, uh, we were walking in San Francisco on Union Street, and he goes, "Gil, you ever been so in love that you, you know, it's like that Weeknd song where you can't feel your face?"
35:28
And I said, "Bob, I don't think that's what that song's about." [laughs] And he s- thought for a second and he goes, "No, Gil, I'm pretty sure that's what it's about." [laughs] I go, "No. No, it's really not."
35:36
Anyway, uh, Numbers Guys, Daniel Boone, Davey Crockett, Bob Stoehl, pioneers all. Absolutely. Yep. Um, okay. Baseball play for September. Now- I don't think he likes, he likes the legend line anymore.
35:48
[laughs] You don't like it anymore. I said it once. Trust me, I know, buddy. Um, so again, we fell one out shy, one out away we were from cashing a 65 to one on the Guardians in March, April.
36:01
Then we were, well, just a couple games out from cashing it in May on the Guardians at 16 to one. That because Guardians went two and five against the White Sox and the Rockies that month. Could've been better.
36:13
Um, so just the bitterness of March, April. But finally in June, the third time was the try, uh, third time was the charm. We hit on the Astros dramatically in the month of June, and, uh, super pumped about that.
36:24
25 to one at Circa, 17 to one at William Hill. So this has just been awesome betting these monthlies. July, we had the Royals, they finished ninth 'cause they started out Really badly.
36:35
They were five of 34 with runners in scoring position in their first five games. We never could get ahead of that. So they finished in the top 10, but not close.
36:41
And then finally this month in August, we kind of sucked it up with the Mets. The Mets didn't come close. Um, but we're gonna do it for the final month of the season.
36:49
And I landed on, by the way, this is also available at Circa and William Hill Caesars. Yeah, just put up the Caesars odds. You ready for this? The Arizona Diamondbacks. Oh. 13 months in a row. The Arizona Diamondbacks.
37:02
Uh, Arizona Diamondbacks won last month outright at Circa, dead heat with the Mets at William Hill. They are on the cusp perhaps of winning August. And at 25 to 1, I'm going with them in September.
37:17
And I know folks might be like, "Wait a minute, man. They got the fifth most difficult schedule in baseball left."
37:23
Yeah, but once you get these two first Dodgers games out of the way, it's gonna be more middling on the schedule. You got 25 to 1 here? 25 to 1 at Circa. So same price Caesars and, and Circa. Yes, 25 to 1.
37:32
Um, here's the point with September doing this month as opposed to the other months.
37:38
In September, you've gotta go with the team that is incentivized to win baseball games, that is in it, and that is going to play good baseball till the end.
37:48
'Cause I think there's a lot of throwouts in September where you're like, "Well, why would I, why would I bet on random team here no matter what their schedule is if they're already, like, on vacation mentally- Yeah...
38:00
midway through the month? With the Diamondbacks, they are chasing the Dodgers. They are chasing a playoff berth. They're trying to stay in playoff range, I should say. Um, and they're just playing great baseball. And
38:10
I, I... Listen, they got three against the You Wanna Go schedule. They got three against the Rockies. They got three against the Rangers.
38:15
They got six against the Giants, who by the way, the rumor is Farhan Zaidi, this might be the end for him, so who knows if they're gonna be mentally checked out at some point.
38:24
Um, they will have two of the tough games are they will have two against the Dodgers, but they're trying to win those, right?
38:30
To, uh, after these first two in, in August and then the first two games in Sept- September, they are super incentivized to win. These, these are home games for the Diamondbacks against the Dodgers.
38:40
Uh, they got a bunch of games left against the Brewers. That's their most common opponent. Seven games against the Brewers, three against the Padres, three against the Astros.
38:48
Um, but this is to me the team, just add another Diamondbacks bet to my portfolio. I'm all about it. Uh, best record. The fact that it was 25 to 1 was shocking to me. That's the bet.
39:02
So I got them to finish with the best regular season record, 40 to 1. Finish number one seed at 12 to 1 in the National League versus the Royals in the World Series, which is the one I'm most excited about at 400 to 1.
39:12
And now best record in the month of September, 25 to 1. That's what I got. I like it. I like it. Uh, review of the, uh, tennis futures and to see how the market has shifted.
39:23
By the way, all of our tennis futures with the exception of the Iga Carlitos parlay, that was the only thing I had Carlitos in, was a parlay. That one is done. Carlitos losing in straight sets to Botic van de Zandschulp.
39:34
What was that? What was that? One of the biggest upsets as we documented earlier, courtesy of Zach Cohen at visa.com. Um, one of the biggest upsets in tennis history.
39:44
But Muchova and Collins Skai are both in, in Q2 looking good as Elena Rybakina pulls out of that, out of that quarter. And then by the way, Iga to win it.
39:55
It is, the, the sea is parting for Iga Swiatek, who was double parked outside in her 6-love, 6-1 win yesterday. Um, but no Mirra Andreeva now in her, um, in her quarter. No freaking Collins in her quarter.
40:10
So Iga might just roll. You know, we'll see. She's got a tougher match against Pavlyu- uh, Pavlyuchenkova in, in the third round. But Iga's looking good.
40:19
As far as how the men's odds adjusted, Kelly, without Carlitos, Novak plus 150. Novak Djokovic trying to win his record-setting 25th Grand Slam singles title. 24 is already the record on the men's side.
40:32
Margaret Court had 24 on the ladies' side, so that's really who he's competing against at this point. That's it. Jannik Sinner at two to one. So you almost have co- co-favorites, if you will.
40:43
Then it's Sascha Zverev at six to one, Daniil Medvedev at plus 750. Then everybody else, 28 to one or longer, starting with the American Taylor Fritz. Was it, uh, so was Alcaraz on the same side as Sinner and Medvedev?
40:57
'Cause they, I think they got chopped the most. Uh, yes, as they should have been too. Oh, yeah. No, the, uh, let's see, what side? Now you, you put me on the spot here. Yeah, sorry. I was just thinking about it.
41:06
No, that's all right. I don't think the- 'Cause I don't think Zverev moved a ton... Alcaraz was in Q2 on the same side as Sinner and Medvedev. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. Those were the two I felt like that moved.
41:16
Djokovic and Sascha Zverev are on the other side. Okay. Yeah. Um, but this is, it's kind of why I didn't wanna get too involved in the men's futures at all. I mean, that was the only little blip I had was on that parlay.
41:26
Um, just because it's top-heavy. Um, I thought Carlitos would be the one standing at the end. I was clearly wrong about that. But I think it's, I mean, it's appropriately priced. Are you gonna get in front of the same...
41:36
There, there was no way you could have predicted... By the way, if you had, if you had bet van de Zandschulp to win three sets to love yesterday, you could've gotten as high as 100 to 1 on that.
41:46
I was surprised he got it longer than that. I said to Drew, I go, "Yeah, but did one human bet that?" He goes, "One sicko probably did." Right. [laughs] Yeah.
41:52
By the way, then we got a tweet, somebody had it in our- Really?... in our Twitter feed. That's great. It's like, oh, there you go. This does feel like actually more...
42:00
I mean, look, I know he's getting up there in years, but sure, it feels, uh, it sure feels like they're showing a lot more respect, uh, for the rest of the guys around Djokovic than, than you- normally we would see in a spot like this.
42:12
Well, I mean, look, he's still, he... These are all young kids, man- Yeah... who have, you know, a generation of tennis has come and gone, and like the...
42:20
It was John Isner's line, the American, he goes, "The Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic are just greedy." Just feels like if this happened e- even a year ago, you don't think he'd be like odds on at this point.
42:29
Uh, maybe not a year ago, but- Yeah... well, maybe two years ago, but he- But Sinner only two to one. No. Sin- Sinner is the, Sinner has b- have had the best calendar year in, in tennis, but the injuries have got him.
42:40
Djokovic has not won a Slam this year, right? He has not won a Slam. He won the Olympic gold, but he has not won a Slam. He's trying to win his first Slam of the year, and that would be number 25.
42:50
But the, I think it's appropriately priced. I don't think there's... It, it shifted accordingly, let's put it that way. Gotcha. Yeah. It's just that it's like, uh, we used to say about the, about the NBA back in the day.
43:01
Like, there's no team from out of nowhere that will come and win this tournament. And then of course Emma Raducanu turns around and does it at the US Open three years ago.
43:10
[laughs] Uh, so the, even the, but that's the ladies' side. Was that three years ago already? Wow. Three years ago. What was it? Uh, it was Coco last year, it was Iga the year before, and it was Raducanu in 2021.
43:20
That's right. Osaka 2020, Andreescu 2019, Osaka 2018. That's back at the US Open. So yeah, it, it shifted, but it, it shifted as it should. Uh, you have any bets in, uh, college football? Anything? You did anything? No?
43:33
Nothing? Golf? Golf? I've got, uh, no, I do. I do. I have, uh, I've got nothing tomorrow. Yeah. I've got FAU plus 14 tonight against Michigan State. Bam. Florida State goes down, jump on the next bandwagon, Gil.
43:44
[laughs] Is that the next band? Now, I was listen- I was listening to the Great Bear Bets podcast, and, uh, a couple of the guys mentioned it there.
43:49
I believe Will, I th- I think Felika's on it too, but it's, it's, it's dropped. I think it's 12 and a half, 13 now. They're all about FAU. So I don't, I think that's why he didn't bring it up.
43:57
Um, again, a shout-out to Mitch and Paul. Seven years, follow the money at those hours. Unbelievable feat.
44:04
Uh, they will be, first show for them in the afternoon, 4:00 to 7:00 Eastern, 1:00 to 4:00 Pacific starting on Monday. We remain in the same time slot. I don't know if we'll be doing it from the D or from elsewhere.
44:16
I think it might be elsewhere. But, uh, we always appreciate you. None of us could do any of this without you, the loyal listener. Thank you so much for your support of VSiN.
44:25
Through the years and into the future, we've done all we can do. Best Bets is next. Enjoy, from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
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