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Aug 31, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 31, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 31, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:19
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling. Heyo.
0:30
Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. How you doing, man? I'm doing fantastic. Beautiful Monday here in Las Vegas. How was your weekend? It's a beautiful Monday.
0:39
The triple digits are in the rear view- Yeah, do you-... as of yesterday... did I see, like, I was, like, 83 driving in today. Well, what I mean is the high is not gonna get to triple digits anymore- Oh... I believe. Oh.
0:49
I believe we've been guaranteed that. Wait, really? No. I mean, it's not guaranteed, but that's what- [laughs]... the forecast says. That would be nice. Uh, I am very excited for today's show.
0:57
Specifically, do you know why? MLB September most wins. Mm-hmm. A check of the calendar, and Kelly Bittling did the checking for me. He r- he just learned that August has 31 days in it. That's right.
1:07
He learned that last week. Still August today, everybody. That means we get to take a crack at MLB September most wins after my worst performance of the year on the Detroit Tigers in August.
1:16
It was the first team this year we didn't get to 500 with. Didn't get within four wins of the, uh, of the promised land. Obviously didn't win it. Um, we'll give it a crack for September.
1:26
I've got my number three, my number two, and my number one.
1:29
And let me just say this, if my number two hits, and I, and the one that I came closest to playing but didn't, I am going to hate myself, 'cause I feel like I should almost play them too. Yeah, but I was gonna say.
1:40
Maybe I should. You, you've never done that. No. But, like, there's no reason why you couldn't. No reason why I couldn't, except for by the time I do it, then people will knock it down, and then I can't get the price.
1:49
Yeah, that's true. Yeah. We're, we're gonna do it in a little bit. You got time. Maybe we'll, we- You got at least one commercial break, right? You think I, you think I can go three and a half minutes back and forth?
1:58
Maybe I can make bet- I think-... they'll do the bet, I'll come back, then I'll go a second time to collect the bet. I think we could figure it out. Yeah, okay. Maybe we'll do that. Um, again- Yeah...
2:08
conversations we should probably have off air. Greg Peterson will join us, uh, from the Baseball Betting Show. He'll give his fab five Major League Baseball today. Four weeks left in the MLB season.
2:17
Four weeks, because September, when we do September most wins, it's not a full month of baseball. It is four weeks. This is really an interesting sort of thing just from our fan hood perspective.
2:27
The NFL season starts about as late as it ever has, right? Mm-hmm. Labor Day falling when it does, NFL season starting a week from Wednesday.
2:36
We will only have two and a half weeks of regular season baseball from that point forward, which is really a small amount, 'cause baseball sort of ends a little earlier- Yeah... than normal, and then it's the playoffs.
2:47
I do enjoy that crossover. Uh, I do. Well, October will be great, but I'm just saying it's, it's less baseball overlap than- Mm-hmm... than in most years. So, which is not a bad thing.
2:57
Just, just clears the way for football. Mm-hmm. So we'll talk to, uh, Greg about his plays today. Four weeks left in the season, all the races, um, coming down the stretch. Wes Reynolds, talking golf.
3:07
I know you have a lot to say about the, uh, the way that Scottie Scheffler wrapped things up yesterday. NFL week one, we'll take a look at that.
3:13
And Adam Burke a little later on, talking, uh, all things baseball, everything he's betting on on the heels of the NFL betting guide 2.0. We'll ask him about that as well. Coming up. First thing, though,
3:24
you know, there's only one way to start here. Montreal Max, uh, tweeted yesterday, and he was like, "Is this your March Madness?" He was like, "Is the US Open tennis your March Madness?"
3:33
I was kind of like, "Yeah, it kind of is." Mm-hmm. The first couple days of the US Open, um, Indian Wells is kind of my ACC tournament, the, you know, the tournament that is closest to my heart.
3:42
But this, it, it is March Madness. And last night, again, the biggest story sort of globally in sport, as they say across the pond, Novak Djokovic loses to Mariano Navone in five sets in the first round of a major,
3:57
breaking his 78 Grand Slam streak of winning first round matches, dating all the way back to 2006. That's crazy. In other words, a different lifetime, different generation- Mm... since we've seen that happen.
4:11
I think just by point of comparison, Roger Federer had 65 in a row. Novak, 78, meaning he missed a couple along the way, most famously the one in Australia during COVID.
4:21
But 78 in a row, he loses, and it really is a function of his body just has broken down entirely. We saw him in Cincinnati against, um, Thiago Agustín Tirante. He lost to Tirante.
4:35
He was vomiting on, right off court while the match was going on there. That we could, we could have passed off to, "Oh, maybe it's the heat." We have no such excuse yesterday.
4:46
I didn't realize that happened in Cincinnati too. Oh, yeah. Yeah. He vomited not once, but twice, I think, last night. We showed one. Yeah, right. If you're squeamish at home, don't look kind of thing.
4:55
Um, and he has been saying, you know, he has some sort of chronic thing happening. And, um, I don't know, it just had Ali versus Trevor Berbick vibes last night. Mm-hmm.
5:05
It had Sugar Ray Leonard versus Terry Norris vibes, to use sort of boxing references back, from back in the day when the greatness was extinguished.
5:13
But I even asked on the, on the podcast, on the US Open preview pod that I did with Drew Dinsick and Zach Cohen, our own Zach Cohen, I asked, I, I said, "Is, is this Novak's last Slam?"
5:25
And, 'cause this, it's not the most surprising thing in the world, 'cause we kinda like, this is...
5:29
Look, he, he had that unbelievable win against Sinner in the semis in Australia, where Sinner was two of 18 on break points.
5:36
Somehow he got to the finals, lost in the finals, got knocked out in the third round of the French against João Fonseca, got to the semis at Wimbledon, now a first round, first round exit.
5:46
And it's just, it was tough to watch last night. Yeah. Novak was crying on the court in the fifth set, 'cause I think Zach, uh, via text last night said it best.
5:57
You got the feeling that was the first moment where Novak Djokovic finally entertained retirement. Mm-hmm. Like, it finally hit him. In that moment, and all, and, and all that came rushing in at that moment.
6:13
I- 'Cause physically just am unable to go. Yeah, I fe- I felt the same way. Is it the... I mean, is it the beginning of the end, or is it the possible end end? I think it's the end of the end.
6:23
I know a lot of people now who are, like, not tennis hardos are like, "Oh, what do you think? Is he?" Yeah. "Where do you think his best shot...?" His best shot was here. Right. Exactly.
6:30
Or at Wimbledon two, two Slams ago. Like, it... We've do- He hasn't won a Slam since 2023. Also, and these guys, for the most part, most of these great athletes do not like to go out- No...
6:42
by playing bad at their sport for a period of time before they finally retire. Right. I mean, it, it happens at every s- I mean, even Michael Jordan, who- Yes... went out on top, then came back. Mm-hmm. Right?
6:55
Um, I just mentioned a couple boxers. Yep. But the boxing is littered with those kinds of guys, right? And tennis is the same way, right? Like, no one wants to go out o- o- on, on anything but their own terms.
7:05
But father, father... What's the expression? Father Time is undefeated? Undefeated, yeah. I just hope he's okay. I hope whatever's chronically- Well, yeah... bothering him is not anything more serious.
7:13
It, it is amazing 'cause even during the match last night, I mean, he's just [laughs] he's capitulating the whole time. He's, like, barely trying. He's still winning points- I know... against professional tennis players.
7:23
So I, the... From a betting perspective, I, I, I watched most of it. Uh, I mean, from the beginning watching him was like, okay.
7:30
By the time we got to the second set, it's l- very obvious this is not, you know, something's up. They're not the same Novak Djokovic. [laughs] I still didn't have the stones to go run a live bet against him.
7:39
No, we sa- we saw it at the end of the first set. Yeah. And then some people did get in on it, like Felika got in on it. Good on him. I- But even, but even that was kind of like, did you...
7:47
I mean, Novak still went up two sets to one- Right, right. Yeah... and then up a break in the fourth. So it's not like that was, that wasn't...
7:54
It didn't turn out to be the correct handicap for at least a couple more sets. 'Cause it look, at two sets up, the, up two sets to one and up a break in the fourth, you're like, "Oh, he's doing it again." Mm-hmm.
8:04
But it was not to be. And so, uh, tough to watch just from a... Forget the betting standpoint. For, for the betting standpoint, helps us greatly for those of us who had the, uh... By the way, I lost one future yesterday.
8:15
Barbora Krejcikova bounced out of the first round on the ladies' side. I saw that. That was the longest shot of the, uh, of the quarters. That goes out.
8:23
But it helps us greatly from a betting standpoint, not to be callous about it, but that's what we're here for.
8:28
For those who, who, uh, tailed on the Daniil Medvedev seven to one to win the Novak Djokovic quarter, um, we picked the right quarter, right? That was the whole point, was that Novak seemed vulnerable anyway.
8:41
Didn't think he'd go out in the first round, but seemed vulnerable anyway. So Medvedev, our seven to one, very much alive.
8:47
And by p- and, and you know, a lot of people, I know Zack and, uh, Chris have Nakashima at seven to one as well. Some people might have Big Foe.
8:54
By data, by hardcore data, year-long data, Daniil Medvedev's the guy to beat. By six-month data, Nakashima's the guy to beat. So pick your poison there. Um, Nakashima having a really good summer.
9:07
So Krejcikova's gone, 14 to one. She's out in a blink. But everybody else here just one day in, obviously, uh, still going. Medvedev wins his, uh, his first round match in straights against Hugo Gaston.
9:21
As far as the individual matches yesterday, oh, boy. Uh, I had six plays. Four completed. Two are carrieso- carry over to today. I went one in three. Would you like to hear about two of the losses? Sure.
9:36
One of them we were two points away from winning. Renata Sarasua, she lost. And if that wasn't enough for you as enough grotesqueness in the morning, is that, that's a word.
9:46
Then I had a young lady by the name of Hannah VandeWinkle. She was taking on Carolina, uh, Karolína Plíšková. She was up six-two, five-two with a match point. Guess what happened? Oh, God. Yeah. Oh, God. Yeah. Yep.
10:01
Today- I, I got some insight as the, uh, as the- I'm so, I'm so numb to this at this point that it's just like, but that one was brutal. Yeah, that was, uh- Six-two, five-two with a match point lose.
10:10
I didn't realize it was like that when- Oh, no. It's terrible... when Drew texted. Yeah. When Drew texted the wrong group. By the way, I s- I send this, I, I meant to send it to Drew and Zack.
10:17
By accident I sent it to a Drew Kelly one. Kelly comes back with, "Hey, uh, that's, that's too bad, but watch Drew talk about s'mores." Ugh. And he sends me a video of them. I didn't know what was going on.
10:28
And I'm like, uh, I w- Sorry, I didn't know you had L's... I'm like, "Uh, too soon, Kelly. Too soon." I don't know what you guys are talking about. I'm sorry. [laughs] Today, four plays.
10:36
Obviously two carryovers from yesterday. Two carryover from yesterday. Today four plays. They're all dogs. Uh, here are the, uh, we, uh, the, again, the outrights that are, you know, still going.
10:45
Obviously the tournament's barely started. Iga is in action today. Got her to win the women's side seven to one. Carlitos to win the men's side plus 175. Anisimova to win quarter number three on the ladies' side.
10:56
Daniil Medvedev to win quarter number three on the men's side at seven to one. Four to one on Anisimova. Krejcikova is already a loser. Four plays today in tennis. Two on the men's side, two on the ladies' side.
11:05
They are all underdogs. Uh, James Duckworth, the Australian, is, uh, the first play on the men's side. Duckworth is a, let me get the exact number here for you. Plus 140. Thank you.
11:17
He's a plus 140 dog, uh, against, um, Matteo Arnaldi. Also on the men's side, Harry Wendtken, plus 247 versus Luciano Darderi. That's a big, big dog.
11:29
And on the ladies' side, Daria Snigur, plus 240 versus Diana Schneider. And Elisabetta Cocciaretto, just like saying that, plus 160 versus Kateřina Siniaková. So, uh, two on the men's side, two on the ladies' side.
11:43
All big underdogs today as the numbers come back to the dogs' side. That was an interesting week of favorites coming in. Yeah, a lot of favorites from you. Yeah. Very odd. Very odd. Golf over the weekend as well.
11:58
We got thoughts next. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
12:07
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12:15
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12:29
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. You okay, man? All good?
12:45
For sure. Yeah? Uh, don't forget about the Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros.
12:54
You can scan the QR code for more. SharpPlays.com. Aaron Donald, worst-kept secret of the off-season. Kelly? No, what happened? Yeah. Aaron Donald coming back to the, uh, Los Angeles Rams- No way... for a cool 20 mil.
13:10
Can't be. No, it is. Yeah, 20 mil. Shall we just, uh- Did, did that number catch you off guard? Little bit. Yeah, me too. But I guess if you're Aaron Donald, you're like, "What are you gonna give me?" Are you, though?
13:23
Uh- I feel, I feel like he was the one who, like, i- who was the first one to be like, "Hey, I'm, uh..." Like, he was the first one to show interest, right? Yeah.
13:32
As opposed to the R- I mean, he's the guy showing up to the practice facility- We said it... getting workouts in. We said it every time this off-season. As soo- He's playing... that day. Yeah.
13:40
The soo- as soon as we heard he was at the Rams facility practicing, I was like, "This is, this is over. This is done." He retired in March of 2024 after 10 NFL seasons. Here's his, uh, resume:
13:56
Super Bowl champ, three-time Defensive Player of the Year, one-time Defensive Rookie of the Year, 'cause that's really all you can be with Defensive Rookie of the Year. I don't know why we have to put one time in there.
14:03
[laughs] Eight-time, eight-time first team All-Pro, eight-time first team All-Pro, 10-time Pro Bowler- [laughs]... one-time Deacon Jones Award winner, and on the NFL 2010s All-Decade team.
14:15
By the way, the All-Decade teams are great to look back on. Yeah, those are pretty cool. Very cool. Those are pretty cool. 1980s punt returner, All-Decade team. Quick. I did have to look up... Uh, wait, who? '80s?
14:25
You'll never get it. No idea. I'll give you 100 guesses. No idea. Mike Nelms, Washington Skins. Oh, yeah. No, no, no clue. Um, Aaron Donald, those are all his career accomplishments.
14:33
Um, just adding to what was already a team on the shortlist. Maybe your, maybe your shortlist was only one team that was favored to win the, uh, the Super Bowl championship. Uh, I didn't even go through it all.
14:45
Like, let's go through the Rams' off-season now. Traded for Trent McDuffie, right, from the Chiefs. Traded for Miles Garrett, most famously from the Browns. Unretired Aaron Donald. Re-signed Cam Curl.
14:57
Re-signed Tyler Higbee. Drafted Ty Simpson. Extended Matthew Stafford. Great off-season. One of the great off-seasons of all time, really, if you think about it. If you get Miles Garrett and Aaron Donald- Mm...
15:09
you're already on the shortlist of one of the greatest off-seasons of all time.
15:12
Yeah, it's the, uh, it's the off-season that no matter what sport we're talking about, if you consider yourself a contender and high-level contender, this is the push all the chips in the middle. Yep.
15:23
We've got the best of it already. Let's add on top of it. Let's go win the whole damn thing.
15:27
Because in your division, you have the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, who I contend have been completely forgotten about- Mm... this off-season, generally speaking, while the Rams are doing their amazing things.
15:38
And the other- It's been quiet... and the other team, well, there's two other teams, but we're not even gonna talk about the Cardinals, but the other team is losing a battle to the substation. [laughs] Yes.
15:47
Yes, they are. And anywhere you turn with the Niners, whether it's the coach getting in a car accident or the owner trying to have some fun in a very strange place. Yeah, yep.
15:59
Now you have [laughs] the Niners- East Palestine... the Niners E- Ohio... I believe it's Palestine. [laughs] Uh, the Niners now, did you see this guy who posed as a Niners wide receiver? Yeah, sure did. Sure did.
16:11
And, and he and a, accomplice bilked women out of over a million dollars.
16:15
I, I, I, I, like I told Chris Foster, our great audio op, before the show, uh, I, I read a paragraph on it, and then whatever I was doing yesterday or the day before, whenever I saw it, I was like, "I don't have enough time to go down this rabbit hole."
16:26
Like, this has gotta be an hours-long like- Oh, it's fantastic. The Niners are having such a bad off-season now n- that now when even they're not involved- Right, they're not involved... someone involves them.
16:36
[laughs] This, the whole, the funniest part about this, oh, there's so many funny parts about it. Is he, what does he go, Daijahn Love is his name? I don't wanna get his name wrong.
16:43
Just like, how is he- God forbid I get his name wrong... he's taking money from women? Like, he's not even- He's- How does this happen? He's going around from place to place carrying a Niners helmet around.
16:55
It's like when you're five years old- Right... and you carry your blankie around- Yeah... as like a support thing. Yeah. So he's carrying around his Niners helmet. He's, like, doing [laughs]...
17:02
Which, like, you have to do. He- This is what, that's what I told Chris. Unless you l- look like Calvin Johnson walking around, like, you have to get, carry the helmet, I guess.
17:09
Nobody thought to, like, go online and look up a Niners roster. Like, dude, yes. What? Like, what? [laughs] We're in the world of AI now. Like, Google should've been taking care of this 20 years ago, no problem.
17:20
Not only that, he says he's playing for the Niners. Clearly he's running pass patterns on a beach in southern California. [laughs] This is the dumbest scam ever, and he scammed 'em.
17:29
But anyway, that's the Niners off-season. Oh, man. All right. So the Rams, just the greatest off-season. Best team, uh, best team since when, heading into the season? Heading into a season?
17:39
'Cause I don't know that I have the answer off the top of my head to that question, Gil. I, you know what came up in my head? What? That Phillies team, I d- I switched sports on you. Okay.
17:49
A Phillies team that had Holiday, Oswald, Hamels- Mm-hmm... and Cliff Lee. Mm-hmm. Okay. That's- That, I think it's a fair answer... that's, like, the best thing I can remember in an off-season, on paper.
18:02
Now, here's the thing with the, with the Rams, though. I mean, like, if, if Matthew Sta- I don't wanna even speak it, right? But if one of these guys, like if Stafford got hurt- Oh, yeah. I mean-...
18:10
all, all of a sudden, like, it all... Right? Okay. J- I mean, just to, like, remember this- Assuming the other team can score...
18:16
remember this time a year ago, when I was able to get a 40 to one MVP bet in, a bet in on Matthew Stafford because everybody was talking all off-season about his back, his back, his back. This is a chronic thing. Right.
18:28
He's not gonna be able to make it through a season. Right. 365 days ago. That's right. And he did last year, but to your point, yes, injuries happen.
18:36
And if you have one at the worst position, yeah, this could all fall apart real quick. You never know. Brendan on Twitter says, "You can't say the Rams have the best off-season with that Ty Simpson pick."
18:46
Yeah, but we don't know that Yeah, you don't know that We don't know that And that was the whole, like, we're gonna go for it now, right? We have a couple year window- Yeah... with Stafford. Yeah.
18:54
We have a couple years to develop this kid. Brendan, are you suggesting that Ty Simpson's 21 of 25 performance that first time out didn't impress you?
19:02
I mean, I kinda think he's gonna suck, too, but, you know, I get- Yeah... but I get, but I get. Okay. The point is, we don't know. We, we don't know. We don't know. Um, any, did this move
19:10
make you wanna go make any Rams related bet or an NFC bet with other teams drifting? No, it ma- yeah, it makes me more solidified in my conviction that the Seahawks are grotes- have I used that word twice today?
19:23
Are- You have... are, uh, how, what's the word? Are just- Getting more mispriced... absolutely more mispriced, but are just, uh, egregiously forgotten.
19:34
Do you, do you think you will end up on them to win the division now, a division bet before the season starts? Seahawks? Sea- on Seattle. I, it makes me e- I'm gonna bet something on the Seahawks here. Okay.
19:43
I don't know what quite yet. I like it. I like it. Yeah, maybe the division. Um, okay, worth bringing up. Keep drifting. Do we have a, do we have an Aaron Donald Defensive Player of the Year number yet? We do, 50 to 1.
19:54
Okay, remember we w- 50 to 1. Remember he wasn't even on the board last week when we were talking about comeback? 50 to 1 Defensive Player of the Year. I know he's gonna get a lot of love and Comeback Player of the Year.
20:03
Reminder, we talked about this a lot of, last couple weeks with Aaron Donald, at least according to Aaron Schatz, the out of, the out of retirement counts for the comeback. We need to say...
20:12
Oh, it d- according to Aaron Schatz, it does? Yes, that was, that, that's right, how he was pr- talking up, uh, who was it, Rivers, when Rivers came back. The out of retirement counted. I don't think it does. Okay. Yeah.
20:25
In fact, um, according to the new- Pretty sure that was the situation we questioned him on, uh, questioned him on. Right, but I, I don't, I'm pretty sure that that's him going rogue on that. Oh, no, yeah, no. Yeah, yes.
20:38
Yes. That's why I brought him, him up. Yeah Because that is not a consensus in the- Well-... in the, like, b- you know, the- It, uh-... wr- writing w- w- uh... why, okay, why is it, why can Aaron Schatz argue that?
20:49
He can argue that because coming out of retirement can technically fall under that broad umbella, uh, broad umbrella of, quote, "other circumstances," unquote. Right. That's the loophole, right? Mm-hmm.
21:02
Where you c- where you can actually say, "Hey, plus 750 Aaron Donald Comeback Player of the Year." Yeah, you c- you can actually argue that.
21:09
So it can't be outright dismissed, because there's 50 humans voting, and if they wanna stick it under other circumstances, they can do whatever they want. Now, remember what the,
21:19
remember what the wording was, that the AP clarified the criteria to explicitly emphasize players who overcome severe adversity, physical injury, or illness that forced them to miss the previous season. Mm-hmm.
21:31
So that doesn't have a retirement underwa- uh, of this, uh, under that umbrella. Walking away via retirement is a personal choice rather than adversity or medical hardship, making it a debated fit among voters.
21:42
[laughs] However, oddsmakers and high-profile, uh, uh, high-profile unretirements, um, can be included under that special circumstance.
21:51
So- I, you know me, I can't wait to see how this is discussed and handled throughout the course of the season. God, we are gonna spend ridiculous amounts of time having to do this if he, if he starts to just dominate.
22:01
Right. Yeah, well, but that's the key there. I was bringing it up to, I was gonna b- bring it up, Gil, 'cause eight, plus 750, I, no interest. I have no interest. Not, not long enough. Too many quarterbacks on this list.
22:11
Yeah. And I think this too easily becomes a, "Oh, wham, we'd love to give more quarterbacks awards. We talk about it with MVP all the time, Offensive Player of the Year. They can't really do anything anymore."
22:21
They're always the easiest position to put up a solid statistical case that's gonna shine, is that, is that quarterback. Aaron Donald would have to have a lot of sacks.
22:32
Was it you who brought this up about Patrick Mahomes, like, giving him Comeback Player of the Year is almost an offensive thing? I've got two things on Mahomes. [laughs] Okay, Mahomes, Mahomes I would not bet. Here.
22:41
Yes, I brought that up. Here, Patrick, take this award. Mahomes I would not bet either.
22:44
I would be more interested in a Jayden Daniels, a Kyler Murray, or a Daniel Jones if you're, if you're high on the, uh, on the Colts. But first of all, first of all, how many games did he miss la- last year?
22:55
He missed three games. Like, three games. Talking about Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. Yeah.
23:00
So it was three games combined with I heard that brought up on another podcast, and I just think it's worth interest, uh, uh, thinking about, [upbeat music] 'cause everybody likes to make fun of this award.
23:09
If you like to make fun of it, is it kind of insulting to give a player of, uh, of his level this award? They, th- these voters will come up with any rationale they want to.
23:18
Remember when Joe Burrow went in, I was like- It was Burrow, yeah... "What's he, I mean, he's so young. What's he coming back from exactly?" You know? Eligible by anybody's criteria.
23:26
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Our NFL Betting Guide 2.0 is out.
23:39
Our pro guide includes post preseason team updates, betting systems, and contest strategies, hosts' best bets for week one, and more. Get it now, vsin.com/guide. You can sign up for as little as $9.99.
23:54
Again, vsin.com/guide. And boy, oh boy, the difference between, uh, NFL Betting Guide 1.0, when we did that in early summer,
24:03
God, j- my, my Niners over [laughs] is just, it is like, "Uh, Gil, put in your, put in your best bet for Niners over. Okay, great, now watch this," the calamity of the team after that.
24:15
The other one I thought was- So many injuries... the other one that ju- jumped out to me was, was only because, this one only jumped out to me because if you went through
24:24
Betting Guide 1.0, if you were like me, you were probably like, "Man, this thing is detailed. This is long," right? "We got a lot of stuff in here. 46 pages? Only 46 pages. It's lacking.
24:35
Come on, Zach, Reid, what are you doing?" [laughs] Oh, two more things about tennis before you finally get to golf. I'm sorry. Yeah, hey, I'll give it.
24:41
Uh, so that match lasted, the Novak Djokovic-Mariano Davíla match lasted, you know, over four hours. 17 hours seemingly?
24:50
So Venus Williams and Sophia Kenin Took the court later than any match has ever taken the court at the US Open in, in US Open history. Um, and Venus, it's like what are we doing with Venus?
25:06
Venus turned pro in 1994. I'm not even kidding. That's wild. Like, w- w- she's out there playing, and she, by the way, she had four set points in the second set. She gagged them all and she lost.
25:19
And I just- I mean, it's wild that we're sitting... It's wild that we're sitting here on a Monday in 2026- It's incredible... talking about Novak Djokovic and Venus Williams still. It's incredible.
25:26
And the only other thing I have to say is ESPN, I love you. Malika, I love you. Love, love all that you guys do. But you guys gotta figure out tennis because the way that you...
25:38
Like, they're w- they're showing two sets of a Jensen Brooksby match in the afternoon. Like, Jensen Brooksby coming back to win a third set, right, to force a fourth. Yep, caught that.
25:47
And then they just go to the desk and they do 30, like it's 20 to 30 minutes of interviews before they decide to return to the match that they've gotten everybody invested in.
25:57
They did the same thing in the, in the Novak match where they, like, missed an entire game to start a set. You are not more important than what you have already gotten people invested in.
26:07
You've gotta be able to do better on this. Is there a... And there's no, like, rhythm to it, right? Yeah, it's- Like, you don't know when it's coming or how long they're gonna stay there.
26:18
It's like, I was like imagine if you watched two and a half quarters of a football game. Yeah.
26:23
And then with like, you know, two minutes, I don't know, whatever the analogy is, and they're like, "Let's go to the desk and let's start," while the game is happening and you're not watching it.
26:30
But there's like, you know, for me, there's a lot of channel flipping going on on that TV, right? So they go to the desk, and I'm, and I'm...
26:35
Like yesterday, I was watching a lot yesterday and I'm like, "How long are they gonna be here?" Like, "Can, can I change the channel and come back?"
26:40
And sure enough, they were there at the desk for like 30 minutes, and like, all right. A- and if their response is that that's why everybody should get ESPN Unlimited, that is not an acceptable response. No. Nope.
26:49
It's not. All right, golf. Sorry. Hogan. Tour championship. Hey, Scottie Scheffler. Hey, remember that whole, uh, remember that whole w- player of the year debate as of three weeks ago?
26:58
Remember the whole he hadn't won a tournament since January thing? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Scottie Scheffler's like, "Let me, uh, let me put this one to bed." Uh, 16 under, goes out, wins it.
27:06
Viktor Hovland, uh, sorry, buddy, you had your shot. But he did beat Scheffler, uh, earlier this year. Travelers, I believe, where he won, uh, beat out Scottie Scheffler.
27:14
So Scottie, heck of a round, 66, uh, yesterday to close things out, was by far the best player on the course. Actually the top of the boar- uh, top of the leaderboard.
27:24
Kinda just struggled and really, I don't wanna say fell apart, but all of them sh- uh, like most of them shot over par. Um, on the Sunday Scottie goes out there, big round, dominated tee to green, dominated on approach.
27:35
Classic Scottie Scheffler I thought really watching yesterday.
27:39
Even, e- even had some of the, some of the missed putts from Scottie st- still yesterday, but man, just the approach game was so locked in and what you're used to seeing from the greatness of Scottie Scheffler was just- And he was hitting putts too...
27:51
yeah, just long irons and putting them in, in makeable putting distance. Yeah. And just putting them, you know, five, eight feet from the cup. Uh, really, really dominant- That, that was my thing...
27:59
dominant performance... which, which is, is sorta like imagine if he had that. Imagine if he had a putter most weeks, 'cause he's basically playing without that ga- without that part of his game.
28:09
Best putting, uh, best putting season of his entire career this year. Yeah. That's, that's where it's come up. Yeah. That's why there was legit concern over Scottie.
28:17
I think mid- middle of the season was so much of the rest of his numbers where he usually dominates had been slouching a bit, and the putter was kinda helping carry him st- uh, com- you know, compared to s- compared to the rest of his stats.
28:29
But yeah, this was- Oh, that's interesting. I didn't, I didn't read it that way. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Interesting. Okay. His approach numbers and kinda off the tee were a little bit down.
28:35
So pe- you know, we talk ab- a lot about putting and the variance with that. You kinda s- guys get a hot putter. Sometimes it's for a tournament, sometimes it's for a round, sometimes it's for a month.
28:44
'Cause every time I watch him it's the putter that fails him. I mean, r- these past few weeks it had, it had- Yeah... crept back up into not being great.
28:50
But he, yeah, he gained over the field on putting just slightly this week, but massively, massively tee to green, so he takes it home.
28:56
He is, uh, he was at least my, he'd be my player of the year, uh, if we're still having that discussion. I don't think we are. Yeah, I don't e- Yeah...
29:02
I mean, W- Wyndham Clark might have something to say about it, having a, a major to go along with things.
29:07
But, uh, no, Scottie Scheffler I think over these past few weeks, two weeks in the, uh, two wins in the playoffs, I think that settles things up. And, uh, look, season over.
29:16
We will go into, over this next year and a half as we continue to shift on the schedule in the PGA Tour as we get this new schedule put in place for 2028, this'll be a little bit of wa- a little bit wonky.
29:27
This fall though, still pretty normal from what we've seen over the past few years. So fall golf will continue, uh, here in a, in about a month after the President's Cup. We have the President's Cup.
29:38
That is up next though in three weeks. They will play that against the international team. USA right now minus 400 over at DraftKings. Uh, President's Cup isn't the Ryder Cup, Gil. [laughs] The- Yeah...
29:51
international team not quite as stacked as what the Europeans can put together. Uh, this is y- this would, even at minus 400, it would be USA or nothing for me if you're looking at betting the President's Cup. Okay. Wow.
30:03
Uh, we get tweets. Speed of the book. Always appreciate everybody, uh, chiming in. Uh, Bitland's Escalator Repair LLC says, "Carlitos needs to be safe today versus Roman. Fields could be wide open after two days."
30:15
Yeah, it helps everybody with, uh, Novak out, uh, Novak Djokovic out. Bert Wedemeyer, "Gil, I'm riding with you on tennis today as usual. Can we maybe repeat?" He says, "You're locked." Nothing's ever a lock.
30:24
A little slower. He says, "It's hard finding these players on the fly." Duckworth, um, and Wenduchen on the men's side. Lady side, Sniegure and Cocciaretto. There you go.
30:39
Charles in Connecticut, "When did the US Open start doing Sunday day one? Joined the match fourth set around when Joker did the splits.
30:45
Can't add commentary better than you, just to say I haven't been emotionally invested to a match in a long time. I doubt it's the end, but I did feel like it could be." Uh, about Aaron Donald, fake followers.
30:53
There's another 10 million available to Donald. Looking forward to the NFL season. Great show. Thank you.
30:57
Oh, I shortchanged Aaron Donald One-year deal worth 20 million base value that can reach up to 30 million Yeah, playoff incentives, I believe, is what it was.
31:06
[sighs] Uh, [laughs] Anthony Ventresca, "Glad you mentioned the guy posing as a 49ers player running routes on the beach wearing the helmet. It's too funny." How you falling for this? Ladies, come on. It's pretty wild.
31:19
Brian Pointshaver, "Thanks, Gil, for opening that wound with the Phillies five aces year. That one squat. What's next? The three consecutive NFC championships that [laughs] that the Eagles lost with McNabb?" Yeah.
31:31
Well, San Francisco Giants got in your way, I believe. This is from, uh, LFC Title Records. "Cerca has had Aaron Donald listed as Defensive Player of the Year for most of the summer at 100 to 1." Hmm. Shout out...
31:43
Oh, he says, "P.S. Shout out to Chris Felica for giving out the 10 to 1 horse pick on Friday." Yes. Yeah. Wait, wait, he hit two? He hit two. Hit two, right? One of them was 10 to 1. Yeah. Yeah. That Felica fella.
31:56
Rick... Oh, by the way, Felica- Pretty good... what else did Felica do? He did something else that he got right. It'll come to me. I don't know. I had a terrible- Um-... betting weekend, so good for him. Oh, he...
32:04
College football, which we'll get into. Hmm. College football. He had UVA. College football. That's right, he did. Do we have a segment for college football? We do. We're gonna- We do. Oh, we do. Okay.
32:11
Yeah, college football. U- he was all over UVA when most people, it seemed like, were on NC State. Oh, we had a lot of NC State love going around. A lot incoming on NC State. He was on UVA.
32:20
I don't know about you, I didn't really bet, I didn't bet anything college football this weekend, but it's so, it's, it's, it's, it's just kinda funny when you do sit on the sidelines and it's just, man, for two months of UNC hate- [laughs]...
32:31
and just, boom. In your face. And, you know, oh well. Well, come on. Was it really in your face? Even in victory they did not look good. Oh, they looked great, but it was still... I mean, it was a pretty easy victory.
32:41
It was 15 to 10. TCU could- Yeah... TCU's quarterback couldn't have been more inaccurate, and they still had a chance to win at the end. I, that, A, a win's a win. I'm not gonna deny that, but I don't think...
32:53
W- was that glorious? No. They needed it, though. Oh, they- After that summer- Oh, they needed it... oh, do they need it. They needed it. Rick Olier, "Honest question, Gil.
33:00
If Ayuk doesn't find his way to the copies, would you as a fan welcome Dejon Love with [laughs] open arms?" Absolutely. Can you imagine the ride recei- wide receiver room?
33:11
McLaurin and Diggs are like, "Who, who's that guy?" [laughs] Um- Who dat? Oh, Shrek McPhee, "Wishnev -199 versus Venus right now. Bet your boots off. Yo, fellas. Yo, fellas.
33:22
I feel the need to let y'all know that six days ago I picked up a few tickets for PCA Most Home Runs at 100 to 1. I see him at +430 now. Let's ride."
33:30
PCA with five homers this weekend, and I, me, me thinks MVP even more solidified now for Pete Crow-Armstrong.
33:40
What I've said all along is you just, you, those voters are gonna look for a year where they don't have to give it to Shohei, and PCA's making it easier for him now. Mine is 1,600 now.
33:49
Uh, Tim Bowers, "Do you think the Rams are creeping up there in terms of most hated teams? By all accounts, AD seems like a great dude, but man, I'm feeling some Rams fatigue." Yeah. Oh, I think that's fair.
33:59
I think there's a difference between fatigue and hate, though. Yeah. I don't know if I- Fatigue... don't know if I've felt that much hate. No, not really. But fatigue a little bit. Fatigue. Yeah.
34:06
And Boudin Boy, "Have you watched Hard Knocks this year? McDonald very impressive. Makes me agree with you more on the Hawks over." Keep 'em coming, y'all. McDonald is awesome. Next,
34:16
big September Most Wins, Major League Baseball. I have not bet one team. I have bet two. This just in. It's next on The Numbers Game.
34:25
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34:40
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34:50
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34:55
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35:04
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35:19
What's the obsession with the, uh, letters BTB in spor- in the sports betting world? Including the Beating the Book podcast- I think, uh-... the Bet the Board podcast. I think that one's- BTB-...
35:29
just a little more random... BTB Analytics. I'm sure there's others. No, you're right. But, like, none of them are, none of them are- We all want BTB...
35:39
it, it, most of them aren't, don't have repeating words in it, right? Like, the same words. No, that's true. So- So it's, it's just random... it is random. Yeah. It is random. All right. MLB monthly wins.
35:49
Let us look at August, 'cause August is over. It's all over. Congratulations to Mark Borchardt, base winner, and anybody else who had the Philadelphia Phillies.
35:58
With one day left in the month, and one game left, I believe, for the Phillies, they've already clinched it. 20 and 7 is the Phillies record headed into tonight.
36:07
They are your August champs both at William Hill Caesars, where it would've been a dead heat, and of course at Circa where there would've been tiebreaker procedures. But the Phillies win it outright.
36:16
The Rays right now in the, the final day, they, they end up with 18 wins. Braves, Brewers, Blue Jays all had 17. A lot of teams gave it a run, but in the end, no drama here in the last day. Phillies are your winner.
36:28
Some other anomalies, by the way... Oh, Ph- Pop the champagne, Philadelphia. Pop the champagne, Philadelphia Phillies. Build a statue. Worst team in August, in case you were wondering, the Athletics. Yeah. 8 and 19. Hmm.
36:40
I think even I coulda guessed that. My, by the way, they weren't the w- the worst run differential, though, was the Mariners at minus 73. Good God. Geez.
36:48
How did, how are the Mariners getting just destroyed by double digits, like, three different times and still being in the hunt for a playoff spot? Uh, the Phillies did have the best run differential, plus 47.
37:00
Our Tigers, it was my worst monthly performance of the year. Tigers ended up being 11 and 15, plus 15 run differential, but they weren't close. Like, what, what have the A's done in the past, like, six weeks? Wow.
37:13
It doesn't feel like all that long ago- Terrible... when they were, like, kind of in that AL West conversation. And the biggest anomaly of, it, oh, it was a while ago at this point. A couple months at this point, yeah.
37:23
Yeah. Biggest anomaly of the, uh, of August, the Dodgers played 27 baseball games. They were 13 and 14. Do you know how many one-run games they had? 15. Hmm. They were, they were 7 and 8 in one-run games.
37:36
Anyway, that's August. Which brings us to September. September most wins. Now again, there's only four weeks left in the Major League Baseball season beginning today, and it's still August, right?
37:47
So there's still one day left of August. So September is not a full month of baseball. It's four weeks, that's it.
37:52
So when you look at, uh, when you look, well, before we get to the most win odds, just let's look at the number of games,
37:59
the number of games that are, are, that, that are, you know, on the schedule in the month of August. And if you do that, uh, what you find is, is that it's really 25, 24, 23, and 22. Five teams have 25 games.
38:13
Remember, more opportunities to win. William Hill Caesars, that's a big deal. S- cir- at Circa where there's tiebreakers, it's not the worst thing in the world, 'cause less chances to lose.
38:22
Remember, the tiebreakers, fewest losses in case you have the most wins tied, then best run differential. So five teams with 25 games. Cleveland, the Dodgers, the Rays, the Tigers, and the White Sox.
38:33
Most, and by most I mean 23 teams, have 24 games exactly. Then the Diamondbacks have 23 games, and the Nationals have 22 games. Again, it's not the end-all be-all, but good to know when you start the handicap- Yeah...
38:47
on this. Okay. I love you do this. I, I- Yeah... like, you have to start with this. Have to start with this. This, by the way, is the easiest calculation, 'cause you can go to any- Right...
38:54
you, you know, unlike other months where you have to count them up. Okay. So what I always do is let you know my criteria here, and then I go three, two, one. I'm always looking at
39:04
teams' records, but really I'm more concerned with not just the team we're thinking of betting on, but their s- their slate of opponents, their Pythagorean theorem record.
39:15
In other words, what their actual record ought to be, win expectancy ought to be, or win percentage ought to be, I should say, based on runs produced and runs allowed.
39:21
And then sequencing how did they come to those runs produced and runs allowed both offensively and defensively, uh, because you wanna get a better sense of what those teams' records actually are, not based on fortune or good fortune or bad fortune, what they are in the standings.
39:37
Here are September most wins. Now, this is the Caesars numbers- Mm-hmm... that are up here. Um, remember Circa has theirs out too. Mazel tov to both of them.
39:46
I think DraftKings also, but we're in Nevada, so we never see DraftKings. I just double-checked. They don't have them up. Yeah. They don't have them up.
39:50
I don't know for, I don't know that they've had them up in a few months now. Oh, is that right? Yeah. Okay. Uh, Dodgers are your short shot, three to one.
39:57
It'll vary again from book to book, and it'll move based on, you know, obviously size of bets and number of bets that come in. Mariners are the second short shot. Why, you may ask?
40:09
Because they, Kelly Bilin, have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. Hmm. Okay? Uh, but again, four-week stretch. 424 is the, uh, aggregate win percentage of the Mariners' opponents down the stretch.
40:23
My number three team in consideration was the LA Dodgers, and sadly it's reflected in the number, right? That when I saw it, it was plus 280 at William Hill Caesars, and it was four to one, I believe, at, uh, at Circa.
40:37
It's too low for me to play, but if you go to the, uh, the Dodgers' schedule, I mean, look, if you decided you wanted to play them and, and hit, uh, you know, anywhere between plus 280 to four to one, whatever number you got it at, I mean, it is a pretty easy schedule.
40:51
They have, the Dodgers have the second easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball, and this just in, they're the LA Dodgers.
40:58
[laughs] And if you look at those teams, the arrows, by the way, you'll see their actual record of their opponents on the left, the Pythagorean theorem and base runs, meaning the sequencing, the FanGraphs sequencing number on the right.
41:11
Most of the teams they play are actually worse than their actual record. The exceptions being the, uh, the Marlins and the Giants and the Nationals, but they're still bad at baseball, right?
41:21
It's not like they turn from bad teams to great teams. So if you, if you bet the Dodgers and you're like, "Hey, you know, for four weeks I'm happy with anything from plus 280 to four to one," I don't blame you.
41:31
But it was too low of a number for me to play. I ended up playing both my number two and my number one. I just bet the number two. Two from Gil Alexander. I've never done this before.
41:41
That is breaking news for the monthly bets. Well, the reason is, is because I would have such hate for myself- Yes... if number two got there. My r- my number two- Which you have before. I'm glad you did this...
41:50
so they were 28 to 1 yesterday. I didn't get 28 to 1, 'cause I just bet it. I got plus 2325. Plus 2325 on the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto Blue Jays, um, who have 24 remaining games,
42:06
and they don't have quite the easy schedule as the Dodgers or, uh, Mariners, but guess what?
42:11
The Blue Jays have the third easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball, and you'll see a lot of down arrows there, meaning that the teams they play, their actual records ought to be worse than the ones in the standings.
42:24
So not only is it the third easiest record, 'cause you're probably like, "Wow, I, the Blue Jays still suck too." Like in other words, look at the top of the screen.
42:30
The Blue Jays aren't as good as their actual record, right? Mm-hmm. Which is a really an anomaly, 'cause I don't usually play teams like that.
42:37
But here is the deal with the Blue Jays not only having the third easiest schedule behind the, uh, Mariners and Dodgers the rest of the way, aggregate win percentage of opponents, but of these 24 games, five of them, five of them, Kelly, will be Dylan Cease starts.
42:54
So it times out that Cease's first start is September 2nd. Love it. So he's gonna get five out of the 24 games. More than 20% of the games will be Dylan Cease starts.
43:02
So that immediately elevates the Blue Jays into a team here in a very short window where you get the best of that. And the Blue Jays will be locked into a wild card chase the entire way.
43:15
So they're gonna be incentivized to play baseball the whole way through. Their hardest two, hardest in quotes, might be at the very top road series at Cleveland, road series at Kansas City.
43:25
Uh, there's some, eh, we might quibble with that, but in other words, I couldn't ignore C's having five of their remaining 24 games and then having the third easiest schedule.
43:34
So I ended up betting the Blue Jays at plus 23, 25.
43:37
But the bet that I made yesterday, and I don't think this number is there, we'll have to check what they are now at William Hill and Caesars, William Hill Caesars and at Circa, but yesterday I got the Boston Red Sox at 28 to one at William Hill Caesars.
43:49
Yes. Our July winners, there you go, trolls, I finally mentioned it, even though you guys accuse me of saying it every day, losers. The, the Red Sox, who we hit at 80 to one in July, got them at 28 to one.
44:03
Roman Anthony back in the lineup, Trevor Story back in the lineup. I know they got crushed by the Yankees yesterday, but, uh, Anthony went two for four, Story went two for three, I believe.
44:12
So immediate impact in terms of, oh, that's gonna be great. It's a middling schedule. It's not as easy as the Mariners and the Dodgers and the Blue Jays, the ones we just talked about. It's a middling schedule.
44:22
It's a little closer to the easy side, but it's, it's middling. But again, with the Red Sox, the bullpen, with Whitlock and, and, um, Aroldis Chapman. That hasn't changed.
44:34
Garrett Crochet is scheduled to come back some time in September, second half of the month, and he will go right to the bullpen.
44:43
That's how the Red Sox are gonna use Garrett Crochet, and that's how they will employ him in the postseason. That's the plan. That is going to be a ridiculous backend.
44:53
So if you can win six-inning games here starting the second half of September, and they're gonna bring him back a little before the playoffs, we get that as well as of, of an injection into the Boston Red Sox.
45:06
So it's the Red Sox at 28 to one. It's the Blue Jays at plus 23, 25. Those are your two Major League Baseball September most wins plays of the month. Greg Peterson joins us next. It's a numbers game at Beast.
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