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Aug 4, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:49
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:11
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. My name is Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Billett, everybody.
0:23
Heyo, good morning. What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? I'm good. You know, August is here. That means football is here. Hall of Fame game behind us. Pre-season week one coming up.
0:34
We'll have, uh- Looking forward to it... pre-seasons trajectories this week. That's right. That's right. Look forward to that. Listen to this show today. In studio, Bet Bash is next week.
0:43
We gotta, we're gonna have folks in studio next week. These are a busy couple weeks, man. But in studio today, Chris, uh, how do you pronounce that? Fallica? How do you... Chris Fallica? I believe that's correct, yeah.
0:51
Yeah. Chris Fallica, The Bear from Fox Sports joins us in studio. He is, uh, in town signing up for contests. Been a long time since we've had him on a show. It's gonna, gonna be good to have Chris back on.
1:02
You mean in studio or are you just making a joke? I'm just making a joke 'cause he was on Friday on. [laughs] Yeah, he was on Friday, but not in studio. This is him now in studio, so it's a treat is what it is.
1:10
Yes, it is. Uh, so he'll be here, uh, to talk which contests he's, uh, entering, and it is multiple. It's gonna be, uh, Westgate, it's gonna be Circa, it's gonna be handicapping, it's gonna be Survivor.
1:20
I think he's in all of them. Firing away. Firing away. And then in studio, Todd Wishnev. Ladies and gentlemen, an acquired taste, Todd Wishnev in studio, star of the Megapod.
1:32
Um, I was gonna do one segment with Todd, but this is the feedback I got back from Todd. Are you ready for this? Uh, quote, "If Fez gets to do three, I'm coming in for three minimum." Wow. I was like, "Three." Minimum.
1:43
Minimum. I was, I was like, "Well, then it's gonna be three, my friend," [laughs] "... 'cause then it'll be three maximum."
1:47
Uh, but Todd will be here to talk, uh, WNBA with us, uh, as well as Major League Baseball and whatever else is on his mind. We look forward to the great Todd Wishnev, who, uh, is, uh... How can I put this?
1:59
Gonna talk about some, uh, some other stuff off the, uh, off the sports betting grid, I'm imagining as well. About how he's whooping your ass in tennis? I beat him the other day, and he just doesn't wanna admit it.
2:09
I beat him. He beat me, too, but, you know, one of us is a man about it. [laughs] Week, week one starter odds in the National Football League. He's, uh, he's over 300 pounds, top 10 worldwide.
2:19
I don't know if you know that. No, really? Week one starter odds for the, uh, Saints, for the Browns, um, who am I forgetting? And the Colts. Colts. That's right.
2:29
There's also the Giants, but the Giants, we kinda get it, that it's Russell Wilson.
2:32
And Kelly and I were just, uh, as we were walking out of the studio here [laughs] at Circa Sports Book, uh, ESPN had the Giants practice video on, and Jameis Winston is doing the Thriller dance by the goalpost.
2:43
So Russell Wilson's gonna be your starter. Damn straight he is, Gil. Yeah. [laughs] Exactly. That's what he brings, all right? This is what he, he brings team-building culture-like activities, okay? Yeah.
2:52
He knows when to have fun, and he knows when to lock it in, okay, Gil? [laughs] Exactly. This is what you want in a quarterback, in a leader. Where'd you go? But no, no, he's just- Where'd you go to school again?
3:00
Uh, Florida State. Florida State, yeah. Uh, but, uh, no, he's just gonna be watching Russell Wilson throw moonballs that we're all gonna go, "Ooh, look at that. He went one for 10 on his moonballs to Malik Nabers. Yay."
3:11
[laughs] I... Well, the thing about the moonballs last year were they were so good- I, it, I, I, I-... but even when they were happening, I thought to myself, "This can't possibly be sustainable."
3:20
[laughs] I mean, it is bizarre that he's... I mean, I'm, like, I'm, I'm a Russell Wilson fan, too. I mean, God, that guy made, made me a ton of money back in the day in Seattle. I know. I know.
3:27
But, um, like, it is kind of funny that we feel like he's kind of a one-trick pony these days, but his one trick is something that so few NFL quarterbacks can do, and throw an accurate, accurate deep ball.
3:38
Like, that's, that is a, uh, weapon. We saw it. Uh, Paul Sporer will also join us from FanGraphs, talk Major League Baseball post trade deadline.
3:46
Um, his thoughts now moving into the final two months of the Major League Baseball season as we approach the quarter pole of the regular season. Man, the baseball season is long.
3:55
Um, real quick, Kelly, uh, you, uh, I know yesterday we were texting, the Wyndham Championship over the weekend. Uh, Cameron Young wins his first PGA Tour event after a bevy, and by bevy, I mean seven career runner-ups.
4:08
You had a top five that you were sweating out on this, and you, you remarked, I like that word, you remarked that you had a top five bet.
4:16
If the PGA Tour only knew how locked in you were to this random tournament because of your bet. Yeah, man, it's just... Well, first of all, tip of the cap to Cameron Young.
4:25
I, I, I didn't even have the stones to ask, uh, Wes if he was on him this week 'cause Wes loves betting Cameron Young, and of course he finally wins. I don't, I don't think- Oh, no... I don't think Wes was on him.
4:34
Um, so it makes it tough whenever, whenever you've been following a guy like that for, I mean, seven runner-ups. Cameron Young has been so good over the past few years.
4:42
A- and usually it's just a matter of when, not if, with these guys that are that good. It's just, you know it's gonna happen. Just how long is it gonna take? Um, and y- and you don't know.
4:50
We saw this a lot with, you know, Xander Schauffele had that tag on him for a lot, a couple years, i- i- going back a couple years ago. Picks up a win.
4:58
Doesn't c- you know, picks up a couple, and then all of a sudden last year starts winning everything. So you never know how this is gonna change, uh, change golfers and their career trac- uh, trajectories.
5:06
But yeah, man, Chris Kirk. It's just, for, for how much... Like, I was texting you that, Gil, and I'm sitting there thinking, watching the end of that tournament.
5:13
Just for how much negativity and with things we've complained about, and Big Beautiful Bill, and all this stuff, just the beauty, the beauty that is still there with sports betting, Gil.
5:23
The fact that that tournament was over for, like, more than 24-plus hours, and I'm locked in like it's- Yeah... Sunday at the Masters, trying to get this 16 to 1, like, top five bet on Chris Kirk on.
5:34
And if you told the golf establishment you have no idea how fortunate you are that this betting thing exists- Yes...
5:41
to watching a tournament like this, they would probably look at you and be like, "Oh, how ridiculous you're being." It, it just, it, it- "Our lovely, glorious sport"...
5:48
lost in any complaints about TV ratings, about anything- Yep... are the people like me on the edge of the cou- of their couch still, waiting for, uh, to see if that top five gets home.
5:57
It's just- And it did, and it did cash. W- it did cash. Yeah. It did cash. What we... It's just, it just feels like a lot more how we used to talk about this whole thing seven years ago, you know? Before it was legal.
6:06
Like, yeah, when all of, uh, all these leagues and people can recognize the value that they're all giving each other, and it's just, that seems lost in recent years. Applies to tennis, too.
6:15
As much as I love tennis- No, totally... the betting of course enhances it. No, no tennis plays this morning, though I had none yesterday either on the, uh, business end here of both Toronto and Montreal.
6:24
We'll see if tomorrow brings some, however, as they're in the quarterfinals. Uh, Jakub Myszorowski. Back to baseball for a second 'cause I wanna talk awards. This is a good time.
6:32
With two months left, again, as we approach the quarter pole, um- Talk about awards. Jacob Miazrowski, the, uh, the Brewers rookie phenom, goes to the injured list with a tibia injury, a contusion.
6:44
What does Matt Brown call those? Fancy bruises. Fancy bruises. [laughs] That's his definition of contusion, fancy bruise. Oh, man. Uh, by the way, speaking of bruise, how about the Brewers?
6:53
Uh, along with the Red Sox and Marlins, they kick off August with a 3-0 record. Real brief snapshot of the early August numbers.
6:59
Rangers 1-2 after Jacob deGrom just serving up meatballs left and right to the Mariners yesterday. Gave up three jacks. But anyway, back to Miazrowski. So he's gonna miss two starts. Gonna miss two starts.
7:11
He's, he's had seven appearances. The starts before the All-Star break, uh, as a group, much more impressive than the ones afterwards, and it's only seven appearances. He's gonna miss two more starts here.
7:25
I don't know that you can make him a viable, uh, Rookie of the Year, National League Rookie of the Year candidate. And by the way, based on the odds, he has drifted now to 11 to 1.
7:34
Based on that, just based on, if nothing else, volume, right, of appearances. You get... It's hard. I get it. He was in the All-Star Game after, what was it? Five appearances, was it? Or was it three appearances?
7:45
I can't even remember. Uh, they put him in the All-Star Game, and, uh, five appearances.
7:50
And then, you know, I don't know you can win an, a, an award like this, National League Rookie of the Year, based on just a short amount of, uh, appearances in Major League Baseball.
7:58
But the, the favorites now, or the favorite singularly, is Drake Baldwin, the catcher of the Braves. Drake Baldwin, who is hitting 284. Slash line is 284, 353, 479. He is now in minus money, is Drake Baldwin. And
8:15
that's an interesting... He's now, oh, he's now north of two dollar favorite for National League Rookie of the Year. Agustín Ramírez of the Miami Marlins is plus 550.
8:26
And Agustín Ramírez leads National League rookies in doubles with 24, homers with 17, RBI with 50, and runs with 48, just to name four categories. And he's plus 550.
8:42
Interestingly, of course, the Marlins, while only 500, um, a great story, right? The, you know, we think of the Giants as this team that just sold everybody, they got no chance.
8:51
Well, the Marlins are right around the same record they are, but you think of the Marlins in a positive, um, connotation because there were l- very little expectation with them.
8:59
But if the Marlins were to make this even more interesting perhaps as a team, and Ramírez just keeps leading all these categories, should Drake Baldwin really be this big of a favorite for National League Rookie of the Year at this point?
9:11
By the way, Isan Collins of the Brewers also in the mix. Um, the Brewers obviously playing as great ba- as good a baseball as anybody, atop the Major League standings. Um, Isaac Collins hitting 352 in his last 14 games.
9:25
That's not bad. Drake Baldwin hitting 303 in his last 22 games, but Ramírez leads all those categories. Anyway, I'm saying if you made me make a bet right now, I might take the flyer on Ramírez at plus 550.
9:37
Might do that. What was-- Do you know what the odds looked like, say, Friday? The odds a month ago, I can tell you, were m- were that Baldwin was three to one, Ramírez was four to one at that point. Okay, okay. Yeah.
9:53
So this is, this is a move on Baldwin for sure in the last month. Yeah, they never, I guess they never drifted that far back for, for Miazrowski though? No, no, no, no, no. Okay.
10:01
Never, so- So it's just still been tight-ish... Miazrowski is just like, you know, you gotta, you gotta play a bit to- Right. Yeah, yeah, that is t- it's tough with s- that small of a sample size. Yeah.
10:09
I mean, people were all up in arms about the All-Star Game appearance to begin with, and now you, you're gonna give him an award, really? And he, he hasn't been as good after the All-Star break, quite frankly.
10:17
Um, so I don't know. Ramírez is a pretty interesting... At some point, if the Marlins, 'cause the Braves aren't, aren't making any noise, right? I mean, just swept the Yankees. The Marlins just swept the Yankees.
10:29
He had a two home run game, Ramírez did, on Saturday. Oh, always help. So I don't know.
10:34
At some point, if you look up at the stats, I just think that the, the betting markets, we, we have no idea if these are accurate or not. None.
10:42
But baseball does this funny thing, and I al- I even thought this as a kid, where they're, they just lock into a player for something, right? Cal Ripken won an MVP. I'm an Orioles fan.
10:52
And I just remember as a kid being like, "Really? He's the MVP? So we're going with that?" And they just went with it the whole way.
10:58
Um, and I just feel that way about now as we, as we're adults and we look at betting markets. I'm like, I have no idea if this is reflective of reality.
11:05
So that's why to me, plus 550 on Ramírez might be the play, uh, in that one. AL Cy Young, NL Cy Young, MVP, what are you smiling at?
11:12
No, how, no, the o- the other one I'm, I'm wondering about is just Rookie of the Year, 'cause I, I like, I... MLB Rookie of the Year's I don't think I ever bet on. I don't know how often you do either. Is that the,
11:24
that's probably the hardest one to nail down with what the voters are gonna do, I would guess. I would think you are correct. By the way, American League, Nick Kurtz of the Oakland Athletics, a- Big favorite...
11:35
prohibitive minus 6,000 favorite. We'll look at AL and NL Cy Young and MVPs, which I think are all pretty interesting on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:44
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12:07
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12:18
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12:22
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12:28
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12:39
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12:52
Always appreciate the feedback. This is from, uh, TheRealNicks. I'm not sure what the, what, what prompted this, but you know what he says?
12:58
He goes, "I want you and especially your degenerate friend Kelly to know gambling's illegal at Bushwood, and I never slice." From Caddyshack. Was that, uh, what was my man's name?
13:07
Ted Knight who said that, I believe Is that the, is that the judge's name? Yes, the judge. Ted Knight. [laughs] Played by Ted Knight. [laughs] Ted K- Wow... I did not know the actor's name. Oh, it's legendary.
13:16
Mary Tyler Moore Show and everything. Yeah. I, I do have a great Bushwood Country Club T-shirt that I love wearing. Oh, yeah. I love wearing because you get the...
13:23
I mean, it looks like a country club shirt, so some, like, people that don't know, like, you just, you just breeze through like you've got some nice country club shirt on.
13:30
And but then every once in a while you get the one guy that's like, "Ah, Bushwood." [laughs] Did Ted Knight say that or did Chevy Chase say that in Caddyshack? I don't know. No, no. Yeah, you're, you're right. Yeah.
13:38
Ted Knight did. Uh, Jason Stark, "We had Todd today on ANG. Let's go." Todd Wisniewski, people are pumped. Teasers and parlays. Super pumped for Wisniewski. In studio with Gil and Kelly. Let's go.
13:48
Uh, Bob C, 1:37, "It's Hard Knocks eve." Hard Knocks eve. Hard Knocks, uh, starts tonight or tomorrow. Um- Yeah, I think it's usually Tuesdays, right, they were doing those? Uh, who'd we get?
13:59
We get the Buffalo Bills on Hard Knocks? Is that who we're getting? Who's, who's, who's the Hard Knocks now? See, I got no... I haven't watched Hard Knocks- I think it-... in like three years.
14:05
I think it's the Buffalo Bills, if I'm not mistaken, for Hard Knocks, uh, 2025. It's great. You and I have talked about this so many times off air, but I'll just say it on air real quick. Mm-hmm. It, it's great.
14:15
It is awesome. It's awesome television. It's just so formulaic that, like, I've seen enough of them from that by now, I, I... It's just tough for me to really get into them.
14:24
Well, you are referring specifically, if I may save you on this, to Hard Knocks classic. Yeah.
14:32
The Hard Knocks pre-season, I agree with you, is super formula- formulaic, and is kind of, I'm not, I'm not really sure what else you can do with it that's going to...
14:41
Unless you just, you luck into, um- And, and, like, it's unfair of me, Gil, 'cause the stories are great. Yeah. It's only the stories are awesome, right?
14:48
Like, they, you get to hear from the random fourth round draft pick, right, who's trying to make the team, and he's got a great background story. It's just, I, I, it's every year.
14:58
But every once in a while you run into the Cleveland Browns year with Baker Mayfield and Hugh Jackson, which is spectacular, and they'll...
15:07
I don't know if they'll ever do this again, but the pre-season Hard Knocks with the New York Giants will live in infamy. Oh, gosh. Yes, it will.
15:12
How they botched the Saquon Barkley thing and just [laughs] it was just fantastic. So you do luck into it once in a while. A- and, and to your point- Yeah... the in-season stuff I do enjoy more, too.
15:22
Like, I watched more of the in-season last year than I did of w- uh, whoever was in the pre-season. Uh, Mikey P says, "Just give it some time.
15:29
I bet Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year will start giving Kelly fits just like NFL Comeback Player of the Year does." Oh. [laughs] I'm glad that tweet got brought up, Gil. Yeah.
15:37
Because, uh, your boy Kelly might have made a bet- Oh... in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year market. What'd you bet? I was gonna save it for the end of the show, but I guess we led right into it.
15:47
I saw, sa- found a four to one on Dak Prescott. We talked a lot about this last week. Mm. I'm in on Dak. You are so locked into Dak.
15:55
I'm locked into the Cowboys offense, and I think that the rest of that Comeback Player of the Year market is... Okay, we got, uh, Aidan Hutchinson, Christian McCaffrey, great players.
16:04
It's just so much tougher to stand out as a defensive end or r- even a running back than I, what a quarterback can do we, uh, week to week out there. So I expect Dak and this offense to have a big, big year.
16:15
Um, I think with him coming off that injury, he fits right into what the rules demand of a Comeback Player of the Year, and I, I just... Like, can, can Hutchinson beat him? Can even Trevor Lawrence beat him?
16:25
Can McCaffrey beat him? Yeah. I think it's a smaller group of players. Do you really think M- uh, Lawrence is gonna have a better year than Dak Prescott? No. 'Cause he's getting a lot of steam here re- No... recently.
16:35
I don't. Okay, I don't either. Yeah. And look, Hutchinson was amazing last year. W- were we gonna expect him to be back to, like, Defensive Player of the Year level?
16:42
Like, I think that's a little unfair to expect, and I think it's a little unfair to expect McCaffrey to ha- to run as well as he did three years ago, coming off of age, injury, all that stuff. Um- I'm in. Let's go Dak.
16:54
This has nothing... Well, it doesn't have nothing to do with this. Sure I'll complain about it 19 more times before, between now and Christmas?
16:59
[laughs] I, I was gonna say between, before the end of the year, but that's, that's not fair. These Michael Parsons negotiations are going really well for Dallas, side note.
17:07
Dude, what is, what is, what, what is with the entire NFL? I love that Michael Parsons called out Jerry Jones on this. I love it, that he's like, "Oh, it's just..."
17:16
Like, for all, for anybody who didn't know this, this is what Jerry Jones does. He completely goes around the agent, gets me in a room, right?
17:24
Acts like we agreed on something, then, uh, when my agent calls him, he's like, "Oh, we, Mike and I already agreed on some stuff," and this is how Jerry operates, and y'all should know about this.
17:34
This is me paraphrasing, and it's, it's fantastic to get that window. This is also fa- sim- it's becoming similar to the Emmitt story at the end, right?
17:42
I thi- I think that Em- Emmitt Smith at the end had s- some similar things going on with him. Uh- Emmitt Smith ended up holding out the first two games of that season. They went 0 and 2, and they caved.
17:53
Is that what it was? Yeah. It was those two, first two games? Yeah. Yeah. The, um- As memory serves. I mean, dude, we're, we're talking now. We, it is- Yeah. I feel like me and you brushed off all...
18:03
I'll, I'll speak for myself. I brushed off all of these things.
18:05
McCourrin, Hendrickson, Michael Parsons, they're all gonna get done, with Hendrickson maybe looking the most iffy of all three, but I fully believed all three would get done.
18:15
And that was, like, a week and a half ago I was that confident about it. Gil, [laughs] I have no idea what's going on with these guys now. I have no idea. Mm, I still think Skins'll sign McCourrin. I- But we'll see.
18:25
That wouldn't... I mean, I think him and Micah leaving would be shocking, and I don't, I won't believe it till I see it, but man, Par- like, to your point, Parsons said some things that are- Wow...
18:37
you've now put out in the public that this is, it is hard to repair that type of relationship. Like I said, you think Hendrickson and McCourrin are mad? I present Michael Parsons. Right.
18:46
Uh, let's go to these, uh, MLB awards, uh, real quick before we get to Sporer. AL and NL MVP. Um, so AL MVP, as we know, uh, Aaron Judge hasn't played since the 25th of July.
18:58
Yankees, since he's been out of the lineup, are four and five. Judge, 342 average, 37 homers, 85 RBI when he left.
19:08
That's w- Still to this moment, remains first, fourth, and fifth in the Triple Crown race, and he hasn't played since July 25th.
19:15
He is expected to come back, or the earliest he could come back, is actually tomorrow against the Rangers.
19:21
I thought the Rangers would clear him completely, but it sounds like the Yankees are trying to get him into the Rangers series tomorrow. So even in his absence, he's still first, fourth, and fifth in the Triple Crown.
19:32
And Cal Raleigh by contrast, who has five more homers than Judge, 42 to 37, has three more RBI than Judge, 88 to 85, average nowhere close to Judge's, um, he's only hit four homers in his last 19 games.
19:48
And remember every- remember when everybody was like, "Oh, Cal Raleigh, MVP," and I was like, "No." Yep. Yep. No. Aaron Judge minus 185 is correct. He should be the favorite, and even his absence.
19:59
And by the way, Cal Raleigh, if you watch a Mariners game, Cal Raleigh just feels like one of many home run bats now. So there's that kind of weird feel to him also. Oh, that's an interesting call.
20:10
I mean, you- He just kind of feels like one guy in the middle of anybody who could jack one. You're a team that's made multiple trades now, right? Yeah.
20:17
Like, you were a better story when you were kind of the sole star of that team. But the point- Or one of the few... but the real point is, this was his time to, like, build leads on Judge in all those categories.
20:26
He really didn't. So. Okay, so this number, w- uh, like, like I said as soon as he got hurt, I'd probably look, look to see if there was much, if there was a dip here at any point. This hasn't dipped too much.
20:40
Is this a bettable number, minus 185 on Judge? I think it is. I think it is.
20:45
If, if you, if you're one of these bettors who could, does, you know, I know, I know a lot of bettors don't like laying juice, but I, I think minus 185 is still a good bet. I mi- I might get involved. NL MVP.
20:56
W- would you like to hear really quick what the open MLB futures I have are? Oh yeah, please. Yankees minus 220 to win the AL East. Ooh. Okay? No, not bad. Aaron Judge, no on the Triple C- Crown winner at minus 220. Oh.
21:08
That's from way earlier in the season. That, that might still work. Yeah. And now I'm considering adding an Aaron Judge MVP bet. The second one's good.
21:14
For people not knowing me, it would be like they think I'm the biggest Yankees fan on the planet, 'cause that's all, all the bets I have involve the Yankees. [laughs] It's Mr. Yankee. Yeah, Mr. Yankee.
21:22
No, I mean, your, your not to win the Triple Crown is a good bet, I think. Yeah. First, fourth, and fifth. Uh, the absence helped you, let's put it that way.
21:29
Uh, and then for NL MVP, Shohei remains a really large favorite in, uh, National League MVP. I think he's a $6 favorite. Is it $8 favorite? Pardon me. I, uh, short-changed him. $8 favorite at DraftKings.
21:41
Pete Co- Arms- Pete Crow-Armstrong, the only other person in single digits at seven to one. This is, to me, this is a case of there just wasn't anybody else who stepped up in a way that could beat Shohei.
21:51
Shohei's hitting 274. He's got 38 homers and 73 RBI. Um, he's gonna start Wednesday against the Cardinals.
22:01
So I know he's only th- he's only pitched 15 innings, but in those 15 innings he still has a 2.40 ERA, 17 K's against five walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting 267. He's hit 27 homers.
22:13
I guess he is beating Shohei by five RBI, but that's about it. So the, the pitching again, unless...
22:19
There, there just was never anyone who had a season this year that threatened Shohei, and as long as Shohei is pitching on top of his amazing batting, I get it. It's minus 800, and I don't see why it shouldn't be.
22:31
Do we think, 'cause g- uh, Chris brought this up, what, last week, right, or the week before. Do we thi- i- i- do we think Otani's gonna get, will he be back on the mound regularly through the end of the season?
22:41
I mean, he's starting Wednesday. Okay. We'll see how it goes. They're gonna, they're gonna watch him closely though for sure with the cramping. Man, there's a part of me that wants to bet Schwarber in this.
22:49
I love Kyle Schwarber. I wouldn't. I wouldn't, but I hear you. We'll come back. Rookie, excuse me, uh, Cy Young and Spoff next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
Cirka Survivor, the quest for $14.2 million will make its debut tomorrow here on VSiN. 10-part documentary on the world's largest legal football contest follows contestants as they chase the $14.2 million prize.
23:20
Episodes start tomorrow through August 9th, and then resume August 12th through the 16th, 9:00 PM Eastern on VSiN. For more, visit vsin.com/survivor. Kelly, I have, uh, gotten a sneak peek of episodes one through three.
23:34
Excellent. Fast-paced. Nice. As I mentioned, I, uh, managed to curse in episode one, and I was put in the penalty box for episodes two and three, no appearances. Really? Oh, yeah, no appearances.
23:43
I mayn't curse and continue. Wow. Go away for a while. And you, you've, uh, you've got another appearance to make today? Uh, another filming today. Uh, y- yeah, that's what I meant. Whatever.
23:54
Like a retrospective one, I guess. I'd have no idea. We'll see. Okay. All right. Yeah. Well, it's exciting. It is exciting. 10 episodes. Cirka Survivor. It's, it's, it's fun watching people sweat.
24:04
I, I, it, it, it's fun watching people sweat, but oh boy, does Survivor, uh, Survivor takes it next level. Mm-hmm.
24:11
[laughs] I, I have used your line so many times in the past, like year, when people have asked me about contests. Yeah. And I'm like, "Look, this is a good, a good and a bad thing." Survivor is awesome.
24:21
It will take over your, almost all of your attention of what you are doing on a week-to-week basis and what y- all of your care- Oh... from a football standpoint. It's the only thing you end up caring about.
24:32
Well, you care about it more than anything in life. Yeah. On a week-to-week basis.
24:35
Sure, you have your bets, you have, maybe you play fantasy, but there's something about your Survivor pick that that's the main thing you care about.
24:42
So I, I almost use it as a warning with one of my friends who b- who does a lot of player prop stuff, where I was like, "Just be, like, you spend a lot of time running numbers on players every week.
24:51
Like, make sure you, you're still gonna have this time- That's right... devoted to that, because you are gonna become obsessed with this." Uh, let's bring in Paul Spofford for this.
24:59
Paul Spofford joins us from FanGraphs, uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line from Austin, Texas. Uh, he, uh, of course, is the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast as well.
25:08
Um, one thing we didn't talk about yet is Cy Young And Cy Young is, in the American League, Tarik Skubal is a $6 favorite for American League Cy Young.
25:19
And it's interesting because, you know, as soon as you say it, you think, "Well, um, sure he is," because who could be possibly be close? Can we go to our Tom Tango Cy Young numbers by the way?
25:31
Um, Skubal 11 and 3 with a 2.18 ERA. That's second in the American League. 181 K's, second in, uh, in the American League, and a.083 WHIP. That's number one in the American League.
25:43
But Gerrit Crochet is 12 and 4 for the Red Sox, right? So he has 12 wins, one more than Skubal. 2.23 ERA, just a smidge behind Skubal.
25:55
175 K's, just a smidge behind Skubal, and a 1.09 WHIP, which I guess is the, the weakness in his resume.
26:01
But if you go to the Tango numbers, right, with Skubal at a $6 favorite, Crochet plus 350, guess what Skubal's Tango points are? 65.4. Crochet, 65.2. Neck and neck.
26:14
Paul Sporer, Tigers fan, what do you have to say about that? Well, okay. You know, I don't wanna look like a, a Tigers fan. I just came in for my guy. I don't think they're that close.
26:24
I, I'm not sure what the, what the Tango numbers, uh, are entailing there, but I think that WHIP difference is worth more than, what was it,.3 difference? And I'll be a company man here.
26:33
Of course, I work at FanGraphs, and we have our own Cy Young predictor. And on our Cy Young point thing, we have 142.1 for Skubal, 120.2 for Crochet. Oh, there you go.
26:42
And then just for context, you got 104.8 for Framber Valdez and 99.5 for Hunter Brown, just to kinda give you an idea there. So, you know, 22 points is, like, a decent gap, but I wouldn't say that it's over either.
26:54
And you know how I feel about these. I'm not betting the favorite. So if you are gonna get in on this, you are looking to pivot off of Skubal here, because it is, it is too close to say it's done.
27:04
He's amazing, and if he finishes the job and, and, and pitches the way he can down the stretch for the Tigers, I think he will win it. But he has to do that for two months, and Crochet chasing behind him.
27:17
And we know, you know, you, you and I are of the mind, uh, that this shouldn't matter, but we do know that vo- there's still a contingent of voters that want pennant chases too.
27:26
And with the Red Sox being back in the mix, that certainly helps Crochet too.
27:30
Two months ago, we're like, "Well, it's Skubal in a walk because he's better than Crochet in general," and it's Tigers being in first place and Boston being in last or fourth.
27:39
All of a sudden, they're back in the mix now. That helps them too. And don't sleep on the two Astros.
27:44
I know Framber Valdez had his, like, worst inning in, in a year, year and a half yesterday, uh, against Boston, but both of them are still excellent. Very much in the mix. So this is just not over yet at all with Skubal.
27:57
Yeah. By the way, Tom Tango, for those who love formulas, innings pitched divided by two minus earned runs plus strikeouts divided by 10 plus wins. It's very simple.
28:05
And it is correctly picked at the end of the year, wherever his standings are at the end of the year, 32 of the last 38 Cy Young winners. I, I, but, uh- Five of the six he missed finished second.
28:16
I wonder how many of those five of the six that he missed are recent. Because I, I- Hmm... I don't know. I- Yeah... think some of those metrics that, like... Yeah, I, I, I wish it was a little bit more detailed.
28:28
But far be it from me to, like, I'm not throwing stones at Tom Tango. No, he still got Skubal. He, he's doing it, obviously. He still, he still got Skubal in first. Right, and he's still got Skubal at the top. Yeah.
28:35
I just think that there's maybe a little bit of a bigger split. But the bottom line is, don't bet Skubal right now. Yeah.
28:40
If you didn't get in early, like, it doesn't make any sense, 'cause he can, it can only really hurt, hurt you. By the way, National League, he's got Skeens at 59.4, Wheeler at 56.0.
28:49
So a little bit more of a gap despite the fact that Skeens is only six and eight in the, uh, win, loss, in the win, loss column- Mm-hmm... if you will. Um, but he has the best ERA, um- And-... at 2.02. Yes?
29:03
Interestingly, we've got, uh, over at FanGraphs, we've got that race tighter. Remember I mentioned 120.2 points for Crochet, 142.1 for Skubal.
29:12
In the NL, we've got 121.7 for Skeens, so he'd still be se- second to Skubal, and then 113.5 for Wheeler. So I, I don't think that that's, uh, that's set in stone by any stretch.
29:25
I think a- again, you have two teammates that are looking to chase down the favorite with, uh, Wheeler and Sanchez, who decimated my Tigers yesterday. They had nothing for him.
29:34
Skeens minus 185, uh, and Wheeler plus 165 in the NL Cy Young market. Yeah, I'm all over that. By the way, uh- Comparatively... Skubal took on Wheeler, just to, uh, mesh those two together.
29:46
Skubal took on Wheeler head-to-head in the Tigers-Phillies interleague game on Saturday. Uh, Skubal was fantastic till he got, uh, hit, hit up a little bit late in that game. Um, Wheeler gave up three homers.
29:58
Skubal, Skubal limited the, uh, Phillies to three runs, five hits over seven, struck out 10. Uh, struck out six of the first seven batters he faced until he got knocked around late.
30:07
But Wheeler gave up the three home runs. Colt Keith, Carrie Carpenter, and then Baez hit a two-run shot in the seventh. Yeah. So it, it had the feel of Skubal being really good and Wheeler being not so good in the end.
30:20
So that might affect also the perception. By the way, r- real s- strange trivia question. Uh, Skubal met Wheeler, each of whom is fir- is in the top three in WHIP and K's.
30:34
Do you know how many times in MLB history that has happened where pitchers have faced each other in the top three of WHIP and K's? I'm gonna guess, like- Couldn't believe this...
30:42
you're, you're trivial pursuing me here, and it's gonna be, like, zero or one. That was only- Like, you're gonna be s-... the second time ever. Crazy. I could not believe that. Crazy. Like, at this point in the season?
30:51
Ever. What? Ever. The only other time was 1912. I mean- Walter Johnson. But- Uh, Walter Johnson against Smoky Joe Wood. You remember that game. That doesn't ma- that doesn't count before Prohibition. Oh, that's right.
31:02
Kelly Wood. Smoky Joe Wood, uh, was awesome. Yeah. Obviously, everyone knows Walter Johnson. But no, WHIP and K's obviously kinda do- does look at two different skill sets there, right?
31:10
You can have a ton of K's and not necessarily be good at WHIP. You can have a wonderful WHIP and not necessarily be good at K's. So I do like that combo there, but I, I I'm blown away that that's only the second time.
31:19
Okay. Let me, let me ask you this before we get too... Well, okay. So it's post trade deadline. Yeah. And everyone's gonna be like, "Who did the," you know, everyone goes through winners and losers. Um. Right.
31:29
Obviously Phillies and Mets went all in. Mariners went all in. Padres went all in. Cubs didn't do so much, that kind of thing. Um, I'm more curious about this question for handicapping on a daily basis.
31:39
'Cause right after the trade deadline, right, the Giants, who, who are, who just gave up, win two of three from the Mets. A team like- Of course... a team like the Guardians are as pesky as ever.
31:49
Who's the team that's gonna ruin people's lives the next two months that folks are like, "Yeah, they're out of it. They've given up," and they're just gonna keep winning games to annoy folks? The Orioles probably.
32:02
Um, they still don't have much pitching, but that offense is still really difficult.
32:07
Uh, and even, you know, trading away Laureano, who's quietly having a wonderful season, and Cedric Mullins, who's more loudly having a wonderful season, um, they don't necessarily lose a ton there.
32:19
Because, uh, well, and Tyler O'Neill has to stay healthy, but now their outfield is Colton Cowser, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O'Neill.
32:24
Like, it can reasonably represent what they were already doing in addition to the guys they've already got. Adley's back. It does come down to the pitching.
32:31
Now, Trevor Rogers has been, like, an ace, and it's a big bummer that they're wasting his season. Sano will give you a, a quality five or six pretty regularly. Dean Kramer's decent. We'll see what Brandon Young can do.
32:42
I, I think, I think the Orioles could play spoiler, and they're in a division where every division game is potential, spoiler potential, right?
32:49
All three, uh, three, three of the teams are over 500, and then the Rays are three games under, but they're still in the mix, too.
32:54
So I think the Orioles have a big opportunity to play big time spoiler the rest of this year. All right. DFS us on the way out. Last 30 seconds. So, uh, we're looking at a few studs today.
33:05
Freed and Glasnow, I, I like them both. Uh, Michael Soroka I'm really excited. You mentioned the Cubs didn't do much. I do think that could be a huge move. They should have done more.
33:13
Adrian Houser, also first game with a new team. Quinn Priester, I've been in on him. I mentioned him on the show a couple weeks ago. He's been getting even better going against that weak Atlanta team.
33:21
And of course you want your Blue Jays against, uh, Tanner Gordon. You want your Brewers against Erick Fedde, and then Tigers against Travis Adams/bullpen type game for the Twins. Paul Spohn, ladies and gentlemen.
33:34
@Spohn on Twitter. FanGraphs is where he does his thing, and Sleeper and the Bus podcast. Paul, always a pleasure, man. We'll talk next week. Thanks, guys. Take care. Paul Spohn, everybody, from Austin, Texas.
33:45
Chris Fallica from Fox Sports in studio next, what contest he's signing up for, and he's got a bet in a stranger Major League Baseball awards market next.
34:06
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bilow alongside as well. Uh, Chris Fallica standing by.
34:18
We got tweets @BeatingTheBook. Scuba Scott: "As a die, diehard Hard Knocks fan," two hards in a row there, "diehard Hard Knocks fan, I often wondered why they never allowed you to watch previous years' episodes.
34:30
Can't find them anywhere." Is that true? On HBO? You can't, on, uh, now, what is now called HBO Max, you can't go back to previous seasons? Uh, that's interesting.
34:38
Jason H11: "Yo, do you plan on discussing how Todd absolutely destroyed you in Fesik in tennis, or will he just bring it up on his own?"
34:45
He'll bring it up on his own because we'll see if he doesn't mention me beating him or how many excuses he'll make for me beating him. So I'll leave it to him.
34:54
Uh, this is from Trip Tepper: "Michael Parsons doesn't have to say a word in a meeting with Dallas, uh, without his agent present. Micah can simply say, 'I don't negotiate or discuss my contract without my agent.'
35:04
Nobody's holding Micah hostage in these meetings. This is all just posturing by Dallas and the player." Yeah, but Trip, that sounds very,
35:12
very naive to the fact that the player doesn't often know that he's having that kind of discussion.
35:19
'Cause the way that Micah told, told the story, he thought he was just having a discussion about something else, and it became, apparently, to Jerry Jones, a negotiation. So I'm not sure if that's 100% fair.
35:31
Uh, Jacob Ellis: "Over, under two and a half Dijonai Carrington rants from Toddy today." [laughs] I'll go over. Um, oh, this is a good one.
35:39
The Man Bear Hawk: "Collins, NL Rookie of the Year," which I mentioned was six to one. He says, "14 to 1 at Caesars," six to one everywhere else. Thank you for that, Man Bear Hawk.
35:50
And then, uh, Robert SquareBob2022: "What if Judge and Raleigh's slumps continue and Scoobal continues to dominate? Scoobal AL MVP at Boyd 90 to 1. Worth a unit bet?"
36:02
Yeah, except for the fact that he'll probably win Cy Young, and it'll take a lot for them to get, to give him both those. So I, I would say no. Um, but if you wanna put a unit on it, I'm not gonna tell you not to.
36:15
But I, I don't see it happening. Ladies and gentlemen, uh, we had him on the show as we do each and every Friday, um, from his home in Connecticut, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
36:24
Today we are, uh, regaled, honored to have him in studio. The Bear- The fan... from Fox Sports, Chris Fallica. How you doing, man? I'm well. I'm well.
36:31
Just, uh, out here for a day and a half to two days to, before I head on out to, uh, LA for our Fox football meetings on Tuesday. Meeting up with my man Tom from Vegas Football Proxy, signing up for Survivor. Nice.
36:44
Signing up for the college, uh, Westgate contest. So yeah, we're, uh, we're loving life. Circa Survivor and the Westgate Contest. College, yeah. But not- Are you doing Circa Millions?
36:51
No, I, I'm probably dead money in that. I'm, I'm- Oh, in the Westgate College one. Yeah, the Westgate College Super Contest, yes. So you're not doing the Westgate Pro Football one? No, I'm not gonna do that.
37:00
Oh, so no pro foot- pro football contest? No pro, no, no pro football contest. I, I don't think... Just Survivor, though. Yeah, Survivor, absolutely. Yeah.
37:08
I, I just don't, not that I don't trust myself or think I'm a good NFL handicapper. The, the people I'm going against in that contest and what you need to hit to cash in an NFL contest, like, not me.
37:18
But yeah, I'm looking forward to, uh, yeah- College contests, mainly we're doing two, doing two contests.
37:23
We're doing one on my own, my own seven picks, and then with the, uh, Bear Bets Podcast, we're each gonna do a couple picks a week. Oh, nice.
37:30
And the, the, the plan is gonna be to kind of reveal our card on Thursday, maybe kind of, sort of, we'll see how that goes.
37:36
If we wind up being in it, we're, we'll each give a couple of picks a week and- Bear Bets Podcast- Yep... is you, Will Hill, Sammy P- Sammy P and Jeff... and Jeff Schwartz.
37:44
Bear Bets Podcast during the football season for tho- who, those who want to know your schedule is? Thursdays. Both pro and college football on Thursdays. Yeah, yeah, from what, from what I gather.
37:53
But there might be some tweaks this year with, with, with some things.
37:57
Still being worked out a little bit, but yeah, college is gonna be a main, the main one, and then it's gonna be a shorter NFL one that we're gonna record after the college one. Wow, so back-to-back recordings. Yeah.
38:06
Okay. So Thursdays during the, uh- Yes, Thursdays, yep... during the year, which is the same day we put out the Mega Pod.
38:11
So, okay, the, just so we get, like, a look behind the curtain, you mentioned you're going to have meetings with Fox Sports- Mm-hmm... for the college football season. What does that look like?
38:20
What do you guys accomplish in those meetings? It, it's just kind of like a big, big team building type Take Your Side. We haven't seen every...
38:26
We, we haven't been together since last December at the conference championship games, and we have our text threads and everything.
38:32
But yeah, just an opportunity to see everybody face-to-face before we each kind of go our own ways with our own crews and our own shows throughout the year, kind of.
38:40
We have, we usually have a, either a college coach or a pro coach or a college commissioner or last year we had Roger Goodell, just kind of come in, get the, get the lay of the land, talk about some things that are going on in either with the College Football Playoff or the league office or, uh, coverage changes.
38:56
So it, it, it's fun. It's, it's a g- it's a very loose type atmosphere. It's at a good opportunity for people to let their guard down and just have some fun.
39:05
And you guys famously have the addition of Dave Portnoy this year. We do. So that's gonna be... So how many people are on that desk? Well, the, the desk is gonna, the desk is gonna be the same.
39:14
It'll be Rob, Urban, Mark, Matt, and Brady. That, that's gonna be the desk. I'll, I'll have my- 'Cause you can't fit another human being on there.
39:21
No, no, it's, I, I think that was one of the things that I think people got a little confused with or maybe misinterpreted the way maybe the, the, the announcement came or whatever, was that, "Oh, Dave Portnoy's gonna be on the set the entire..."
39:31
No, he, it, he's gonna be part of the show. I'm sure he'll be on the set- Oh... sometimes. I'm sure he'll have, uh, a little side set maybe or maybe do some man on the street interaction with the crowd or whatever.
39:42
But it's not like he's gonna, you're gonna have, like- It's not a McAfee situation. No, no, it's not like we're gonna go, like, seven guy, seven wide on the set. Like, like ESPN- I was gonna say, like-...
39:50
like ESPN used to do on the, on Countdown, would be like, "Yeah, here, here's the, uh, the entire offensive line going across town." But he...
39:56
No, it, it's funny, when, when, uh, that got announced, uh, I, I wanted to let it go for a day or two, and I was gonna reach out to Dave. I, I was gonna ask, uh, Big Cat or my boss for Dave's number, and then,
40:09
uh, on that Friday, I want... I'm sitting on the couch, just firing on Saratoga. Mm-hmm.
40:15
And all of a sudden I get a text from a number I didn't, didn't recognize, and I pull it up, and it's Dave reaching out to me, which was kind of cool, and he's like, "Yeah, Kirk gave me your number. I hope it's okay."
40:25
You're like, "It's good." He's like, he's like, "Yeah, you like to gamble. You, you like pizza. You, you like, you like horses. We're gonna, we're gonna do great." We're gonna do great, okay.
40:32
I was just worried he wasn't gonna be on the desk, the- No, no, no, no, no... not from, not from any hate, just the fact that you have too many human beings- Yeah, correct... at noon kickoff- Yes... desks to begin with.
40:40
All right, uh, before you go here, a couple, I don't know, it became a baseball awards hour. I didn't mean it to be that way. That's all right. But you wanted to talk about AL MVP, uh, uh- NL MVP. NL MVP, I'm sorry.
40:49
Yeah, I, I just wonder the, the, the price on Manny Machado, because you've mentioned about how- Ooh, 40, 45 to 1.
40:55
Yeah, you've mentioned how you, you, uh, and I think it was even, uh, Mark Falush earlier said that he thinks the Padres can catch the Dodgers. If that's the case, you're not gonna give Shohei the MVP.
41:06
And if you look at Machado's numbers, I think he's hitting 300 with, like, 20-something homers, 75 ribbies, and, and double digit steals. I, I- Are you sure you're not gonna give Shohei the MVP still?
41:16
If, if the Dodgers, if, if the Padres win the division. If he still pitches and adds on, and he's still, like, you know, has a 2.40 ERA, let's say he pitches the round, I still think it's Shohei.
41:27
How much is he pitching, though? Is he, is he pitching a three, four- Well, you're right. If he doesn't, if, if the pitching thing does not become a thing, I'm, I'm with you.
41:33
I, I, I'm, I'm just looking for, for prices, 'cause, like, like, you, we're sitting here, August, whatever it is, August 4th, whatever today is. Yeah. There's still two months left in the season. No, for sure.
41:42
It's crazy. More than a quarter. It's crazy to think that. And then- More than a quarter... and then the other one is the NL Manager that you're like, we were just talking off air before- [laughs]...
41:49
about the Marlins and- This is great... can you name the Marlins manager? That, that's how you should open the show. Can you... W- There's a couple great trivia questions- Yes... we've had recently.
41:57
One, can you name the Marlins manager? [laughs] We sort of, by the way, FanDuel has Manager of the Year. More, more books have- Mm-hmm. They were the first to put it up- Right... I think in, in the last couple years.
42:05
Now more books have Manager of the Year up. We don't talk about it as much as we do, say, Coach of the Year in the NFL. But we remarked a couple years ago when we first were talking Manager of the Year, how many...
42:15
When we were kids, we could name every Major League Baseball manager. Oh, absolutely. We, we did it one day on text. Right. We just... But, like, can you name, without looking, can you name the Marlins manager?
42:23
But you think there's, that's a bet. I, I, I think, yeah, McCullough, he's 23 to 1 at FanDuel. Like, I don't know if we're just gonna give it to Pat Murphy, 'cause the, the Brewers have been an unbelievable story.
42:32
But, like, if the Marlins wind up finishing 500 or a couple of games over 500, and even if they don't make the... Like, I don't think they're gonna be able to catch those wild cards. I think they're seven games behind.
42:43
They're six games behind on the wild card just 'cause those three wild card teams are excellent.
42:47
But from where they were, a, a team that really hasn't necessarily been in a position to add anything, they get no home, home crowd support, and for them to be sweeping the Yankees, I think they're 500 now, if they finish at 500 or above and make a good run here, I don't know, 23 to 1 might, might be worth a little...
43:06
Yeah. I'd rather, I'd rather bet him to win Manager of the Year 23 to 1 than I would the Marlins to make the playoffs at 25 to 1 or whatever.
43:12
So there's American League Manager of the Year, there's National League Manager of the Year. So Pat Murphy, as you said, is the short shot plus, uh, is it plus 175? No, it's minus 175 bet- Really?... on Pat Murphy.
43:21
Minus 175, then it's Council of the Cubs, Sch- [laughs] Schilt of the Padres, Francona from the Reds, and then Clayton McCullough. You had enough time to answer the trivia question.
43:31
[laughs] Clayton McCullough, 23 to 1 for the Marlins. And, and somehow Bob Melvin at 40 to 1. Somehow Bob Melvin. Yeah, for the, for the fading- That's right... San Francisco Giants. Uh, yes.
43:41
Uh, do you have a college football nugget before you go, since that is your bread and butter? Uh, I would...
43:47
It's funny, I, I, we, we were talking yesterday about laying a, laying price, and then we, I was talking about it with Fez, uh, on the, on the way back from the tennis, the tennis match yesterday, about laying a price.
43:58
I think the best bet on the board out there in college football is Penn State to make the college football playoff at minus 290. All of college football. All of... Like- That's the best bet...
44:06
Penn State is not going to go worse than 10 and 2. Yeah. They have two games on the schedule that they can lose, Oregon at home and the game at Ohio State. They go 10 and 2, they're going... That, that's their baseline.
44:16
They're going to be in the playoff if they go 10 and 2. Some people cringe at minus 290, but value's value. I, I, and, and I know, we, we were having the conversation, like, people won't...
44:26
He, he's like, "People won't wanna lay 280 or 290. They'll look for something else to parlay it with." But it's funny, people talk about, like, Penn State, "No, we can't trust them," or whatever.
44:35
Penn State's the most trustworthy football team in college football- Yeah... 'cause you know exactly what they are every year. Chris Fallica, ladies and gentlemen, in- That's it?... studio. That's, I'm sorry.
44:43
Oh, you wanna stay? You can stay. Yeah, I'm gonna stay. Stay. Chris Fallica staying. Numbers Game, Visa, the Sports Betting Network.
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