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Aug 4, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:49
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:10
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:19
Kelly Midlin behind the glass, because we have a in-studio guest this morning, Chris Fallica from Fox Sports, and standing by, Chris shaking his head 'cause he knows what's coming, Todd Wischnev in studio, star of the Megapod.
0:32
Looking forward to that. Uh, Chris, you still good? Yeah? Yeah, I'm, I'm wonderful. All right. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Yeah. Mr.
0:38
Rothstein, "When, uh, Todd starts talking tennis later, make sure he reveals whether he actually covered the vigor not. Betting 80% [laughs] favorites is not always profitable." Hey, wait a minute.
0:48
Uh, Drew from Boise, "Great Numbers Game today. Looking forward to competing as Average Joe with The Bear and everyone in Circa Friday Football Invitation." All right. Psyched. Looking forward to it.
0:58
You won that a couple years ago. I won it the first year, then I finished, I think, I forget what I finished the second year, and then I finished tied for third last year. There you go. Drew from Boise, great guy.
1:05
Awesome. Jason, Ice Cold Gambler, "Gotta love The Bear" on a Numbers Game with Gil, and Kelly saying, "You love gambling, pizza, and betting. Horses? We'll get along great." Talking about, uh, what you said to Portnoy.
1:14
Yep. Yeah, he, yeah, he, he was like, "Yeah, we got some things in common," and I was like, "Yep, yeah. Enjoy pizza, gambling, and horses." Perfect.
1:19
It's so funny, I saw Will Hill did this thing where you ask Grok, right, the, uh, the AI- Mm-hmm... arm of Twitter, if you will, um, who's the most famous person to ever look at my, uh, ever, ever look at his profile.
1:32
And he got- It was Todd Wischnev? He got Drake. Will Hill got Drake. Really? Drake apparently has looked at his profile. I haven't done this yet. I'm gonna need to do it. So I, it was amusing to all of us.
1:40
So Joe Peeta did it. Joe got you. [laughs] Okay. You're the most- That, that... Sorry, Joe... you're the most famous person to, to... By the way, most famous being number of followers- Mm-hmm... I guess is the metric.
1:50
You know what mine was? Portnoy. All right. Yeah. That was dis- Hmm... that was disappointing.
1:54
But- I'm, I'm, you know, you know, I'm gonna go, if, if I ask that question, I might go with someone, like, way off the board here, down. I might go with Kaitlin Collins. Big- Oh... huge Alabama football fan. Yeah.
2:06
Oh, you think she follows you? Yeah, yeah. Okay, Kelly, what did you say? Who do, who followed you? Brent. Brent is Kelly's- Okay, good. Yeah, that's, that's a pretty good one. Yeah, yeah. Hard to, hard to top that.
2:15
Yeah. By the way, uh, Portnoy wasn't disappointing, it was the fact that Will got Drake. Yeah. So I was thinking, will I get Kendrick Lamar or somebody? No.
2:22
So, so Drake's the re- so, so Drake, uh, Will is the reason Drake's losing all that money- [laughs]... on all his bets? Is that what we're- I don't know... trying to do? Did you see? I don't know.
2:29
Drake wanted some action. He's a bettor. Oh, yeah. Uh, speaking of action, uh, how about this? You can bet on who's gonna start week one for some of these NFL teams.
2:39
Um, now, with the Giants, obviously Russell Wilson, big favorite. Yes. He's gonna start. Yes. We just saw Jameis Winston doing the Thriller dance- [laughs]... at practice at the goalpost. Not gonna be him. All right.
2:49
New Orleans Saints, Tyler Shuck, uh, the, you can bet these at FanDuel right now. These are FanDuel odds, anyway, we're putting up.
2:55
Tyler Shuck, minus 162, Spencer Rattler, plus 136, and then Jake Haener, son of former Bay Area local news anchor Julie Haener, 25 to 1. He is the long shot in this.
3:07
Now, the Saints, out loud, are saying this is a legitimate battle for who is gonna start week number one. And by the way, the wording on this is, "Quarterback to take first snap- Yeah, yeah... in week one."
3:21
So the wording is clear. Comes into play. [laughs] Um, do you have a feeling about this, Shuck, Rattler, or Haener? Don't we kinda know what Spencer Rattler is? I, I guess,
3:31
are you gonna go into the season with the illusion that you're actually trying, and
3:36
Rattler has been the guy, and he's played quite a bit, and you, you wanna keep the rest of your team happy by starting the veteran who we really don't know if he's any good or not?
3:46
Or are you just gonna say, "Okay, we're just gonna start the rookie right off the bat"? So I was listening to, uh,
3:53
uh, Jensen and, and, and, and Mark on the way in, and they had someone who kind of dialed in with the, uh, the Saints, and supposedly they said Shuck, Shuck has looked terrible. Oh. Like, bad.
4:03
Well, it's worth noting that DraftKings, we're, we're citing the FanDuel numbers, but DraftKings has, had Rattler yesterday. I don't think they have it up right now. Rattler as a slight favorite yesterday.
4:13
Yeah, no wonder if that's, yeah, a reaction to that. But yeah, supposedly it, like, Shuck is, like, well behind in terms of, like, how, how it looks. Uh- We'll see...
4:22
ESPN's Dan Graziano, just to quote one person on this, he said he's convinced Shuck will, will get the job. He said, "Week one starter prediction, Shuck.
4:30
I don't know that it's fair to call him, uh, new coach Kellen Moore's pick, but obviously Moore is a fan and might enjoy a chance to build his program- That's the thing...
4:38
around the guy for whose draft he was already with the organization." It's a skewed sentence, but what he means is he was around when they drafted Shuck. Mm-hmm. He wasn't around when- Right...
4:48
when the other two guys were drafted. I th- I'm, I'm gonna go d- like if old take, if, like, freezing cold takes one and, like, go back and look, like, I thought Jake Haener was gonna be great. I was like...
4:58
For him to go and, like, the, "Oh, I'd love to take Jake Haener in, like, the third or fourth round," and- And they did it in the fourth, I think... take the chance.
5:03
I think in the fourth, and you, it hasn't necessarily- Haener was a fourth... worked out. Rattler was a fifth. Shuck was a second last year. Yeah, early s- early second, yeah. Early second. 40th pick in the draft.
5:13
But, but Graziano even says, even though he predicts Shuck, he does say, the last sentence is, "The job will be won or lost on the practice field." So there is, I mean, if you want the plus money price on Rattler- Mm...
5:24
it's not the worst bet in the world at plus 136. I will not be betting. I, I- I have no idea... not either. Uh, the Browns famously with four quarterbacks, Flacco, Pickett, Gabriel, and Sanders.
5:34
Dylan Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders obviously drafted in this last NFL draft. Flacco, uh, coming off, uh, or at least not last year, but two years ago, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year with a five...
5:44
Was that last year or the year before? I can't even remember anymore. Like two years ago. Two years ago, yeah. Five- With a good ham one year... with five games, NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
5:51
He's minus 215- [exhales]... to start, and I believe part of that is because Kenny Pickett has a hamstring injury. So Pickett is plus 340. And also bad. And also, what'd you say? And also bad? And also bad.
6:03
And also not good at football. I don't know, man. Um, I feel like plus 340 on Pickett just for the same reason we just talked about with Shuck. Who did they... L- let's put it this way. Let me distill it to this.
6:16
Who did they try the hardest to get out of these four guys? And the answer's probably Pickett, right? 'Cause they traded- Probably, yeah... for him.
6:25
And we all know the draft day thing, Gabriel wasn't a high pick, Shador dropped and dropped. I kind of feel like Pickett at plus 340 is a great bet. He's probably the best of four bad options. Yes.
6:37
And of course, Deshaun Watson- Price wise as well... Deshaun Watson we should note, obviously- Certainly... out for the year with killings... certainly wouldn't be laying $2 with Joe Flacco. No. No way.
6:44
Like, he, he's the, he's there in case of, like, emergency, everybody's, everybody stinks, break glass, I would think. [laughs] Everybody stinks, break glass. Yes. You say yes. I think that's probably true.
6:54
You know, uh, here's the thing. I wouldn't be surprised if all four of those guys took snaps this year. But the question- Snaps? Absolutely... the question is who's taking the first, and I kind of feel Pickett.
7:04
I think Pickett will probably be the guy. Yeah, plus 340, are you kidding me? Uh, let's do one more of these. This is the Indianapolis Colts. Mm, okay. Th- this is... I was curious to see this one because- Yeah...
7:13
I think this is right. I think this is accurate. You do think this is right. A- yes, I do. Anthony Richardson, um, minus 350.
7:21
Daniel Jones, who was getting some love, like we were talking about this, like, three, four weeks ago. There seemed to be some buzz on- Right... Daniel Jones, who the, uh, Colts acquired this off season, plus 255.
7:30
Riley Leonard distant third at 80 to 1. You are convinced it's Richardson? Y- don't you have to know... Y- you have to know one way or another. Like, th- this year.
7:40
He's played parts of seasons, he hasn't fully been, been healthy. If, if you're Sh- if you're Shane Steichen, don't you have to know this year whether he's, has the potential to be anything or not?
7:51
Put about, see what happ- you're not, you're not a great team.
7:54
You have an unbelievable quarterback draft coming next year where, uh, you're, you're gonna have probably what, maybe five or six maybe in the first round, or early second round as well.
8:04
You can take someone early next year if it turns out that Richar- Richardson isn't the guy. But yeah, I, I think this is the guy. But barring him getting hurt in the pre-season- Yeah...
8:13
I, I, I think he will be the starter. You, you, you are correct. You do have to find out what you have in him. D- was it Chris Ballard, the Colts GM- Mm-hmm...
8:20
who said at one point, though, that they probably made a mistake throwing him in too soon? Was it Chris Ball- I don't, I don't think it was Shane Steichen who said that. Probably, probably was.
8:28
It was probably a mistake taking him fourth overall in the draft too. [laughs] But I'm not bitter about that or anything. You, you were... O- of all the people I know- [laughs]...
8:36
you are the most down on him when he was drafted. You were like, "This guy is not good at all."
8:40
Someone made the point that Anthony Richardson, the r- that, that part of the reason why Anthony Richards at minus, Richardson at minus 350 is a good play is that for some reason he really shines in practice.
8:51
Oh, that's... And so in training camp situation- Yeah... he will outplay Daniel Jones, and he will get the start week one. I, I believe it. You believe that.
9:00
Y- you'll, you'll look at him and the way, his athletic ability and with the way he can run and, and throw the ball, and then the lights go on and actual real defenses and pressure, big play. Would it, would it be a...
9:12
I don't know though, man. He's like 11 touchdowns and 13 picks so far in his 15 game NFL career over two seasons. A lot of injuries, right? Mm. He just can't avoid it. So I don't know. It's not the w- I, I, I...
9:26
Let's put it this way. If I was comparing, if you made me only bet one of these, Daniel Jones is plus 255 here, I would still take Pickett at plus 340 as the better bet. Oh, I, b- I think, yeah- Yeah...
9:36
taking Pickett at plus 340 than laying 350 certainly because- No, but I'm saying between- Oh... Daniel Jones at plus 255 for the Colts- Oh, okay. I got you. I thought, I thought you meant any, any- Yeah...
9:45
any partic- No... any single bet on any of those- Yeah... markets. Okay. If I only take one, it's Pickett. Yes. I agree. Yeah. Pickett, followed by Rattler, followed by Jones. Okay. In that order, I think. Okay.
9:56
Um, all right, let me just, w- we, 'cause we only have here for 60 seconds here more. Um, back to the Penn State thing. So Penn State to make the college football playoff best bet in college football. That's what...
10:06
I, I think so, yes. Do you... I asked this of you, Tac, last week. I feel like, and this is just anecdotal, that there's a lot of...
10:12
And we've seen this in previous years where it's like, "Oh, Penn State, this is the year. This is the year." Do you feel that this is the year where they go beyond that and win it all?
10:22
I think it can be, a- and I, I know I'm kind of couching it a little bit.
10:25
And the reason I think it can be, and people are so high on them, is because you've got the quarterback back, you've got both Allen and Singleton back, and the way the schedule shakes down.
10:34
But it's the fact that of all of the other traditional contenders, there are... Y- you can shoot holes in a lot of them. Like, Ohio State's got everyone to replace. Georgia's got people to replace.
10:46
Uh, Alabama's got people to replace.
10:48
Texas', uh, schedule aren't r- Like, th- this is the fr- I, I was trying to go back and think, and I really can't think of a year in recent memory where you can make a legitimate case for six, seven, eight, nine teams potentially- Wow...
11:03
to win the national championship. You, you look at the odds board and- What, what is the weirdest of those teams or the most outlying? I'm gonna get yelled at for saying this. That's why I asked. I think it's Miami.
11:11
[laughs] Where did you, where did you go to school, by the way? Exactly. I, I did, did bring the r- didn't bring the ring. But- Yeah...
11:17
if they beat Notre Dame week one, i- it, like, cr- they have a, one of the best offensive lines in the country. They've got... They're, they're kind of playing bully ball, bit of bully ball in the trenches.
11:28
That's how Mario is building that team now. Three running backs. You get Notre Dame in the opener. You get Florida at home, and who knows if DJ Lagway's healthy. You don't play Clemson in the regular season.
11:37
Uh, the secondary is gonna be s- so much improved from last year. Heatherman, the defensive coordinator coming in from Minnesota. Like, people who I deal with regularly on Mi- in Miami who are honest with me- Okay...
11:48
are like, "We're gonna be legit good." Chris Falike, everybody. Todd Wisnemax, thank you, sir.
11:52
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12:13
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12:22
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12:34
We get tweets at Beating The Book. Del MindtheGapRadio, "If I got three segments on, uh, FTM, Felika needs at least four on ANG." Oh, I didn't realize that that, that you got three there.
12:46
Yeah, well, Todd Wischnev, three or, three or bust. He wasn't coming in. He's joining us momentarily. This is from, uh, Chris Heath, "We need an All-Pro offspring of former KTVU Bay Area anchors.
12:56
Is Dennis Richmond's kid young enough? How about John Sasaki?" 'Cause I mentioned that, uh, Julie Haener's kid, Jake Haener, played for the Saints. That's a very Bay Area joke right there from Chris.
13:05
Uh, Jason, uh, Ice Cold Gambler, "Just wondering what's in Chris Felika's Evian wat- Evian water bottle on ANG. Is it apple juice, spit cup, Hennessy? What is it?" I think it was just water. Plain water?
13:15
Can we get a, a confirmation? Water? Seltzer cup. Oh. Well, I didn't hear what Chris said. Steve the Proxy, "Uh, what does Todd think? How fast do the Pirates trade Skeens when he asks for 60 million a year?
13:25
For context, the whole payroll is 83 million, 27th ranked. Is there really any point in keeping a player they know they'll never pay? Trade the man." Well, sounds like you answered, uh- No... your own question there.
13:35
Ladies and gentlemen- No, please...
13:36
without further ado, 'cause he's already talking out loud and his mic isn't on yet, uh, he is the star of the Megapod, he was the star of the Showtime docuseries Action, and some might say top 10 globally of tennis players worldwide.
13:50
That is globally. 300 pounds or more, it's Todd Wischnev, everybody, on set here. How you doing? I think it's 300 pounds or more and over 54, but yeah, I'm definitely probably top 10.
13:58
Uh, I mean, if we're gonna talk about tennis, hey, why not? Let's talk about tennis. Let's just set the record here straight so everyone understands what has happened.
14:05
Prior to me showing up here in Vegas, a number of gentlemen, I'm not gonna say who, but there's a guy close to me here, maybe about three feet to my right, would talk endless smack, him and Stevie Fezzik, they would call me the Pennsylvania Chicken, that I wouldn't come out and play them in tennis.
14:21
I beat him, I'd beaten Gilley up to lifetime 374 out of 375 games, a globetrotter-ish streak, okay? 374 and one.
14:32
I show up here in Vegas at 308 pounds, rather large for a tennis player, uh, and, uh, w- we go to the, uh, Lifetime club to play. Ooh, this take- I play the first-... is taking a long time. Get to it...
14:44
I play the first game against Stevie, 21-9 me, then I play Gilley, 21-9 me. By the way, we don't play with serving, 'cause if we played with serving, I'd win 6-0 every time. Sure you would.
14:53
We just play, like, you know, points. Sure. Anyways, then Stevie goes, "Oh, I wanna play again." And then I have to play a third game in a row.
15:00
I beat him 15-7, and then in the fourth game now, Gil says, "Oh, now I get my second chance." So he's gonna play his second game. I don't understand. I'm playing my fourth game now, okay?
15:10
An hour and 20 minutes in, and he wins 15-12, and he wants to take a W in this unsanctioned fourth game- Oh, and good luck... which was completely unfair. So then I brought- Okay... in a UN
15:22
observer, Christopher Felika, yesterday, a UN observer. He comes in, and he watches me destroy Gilley twice in a row, 21-9, 21-11, and Stevie at 15 to 8. So all I will say is- Did I beat you or did I beat you?...
15:39
the champ is still the champ. Did I beat you or did I beat you? I can bring Chris Felika back on. Okay, that's about enough of the tennis. [laughs] Good job. Gla- glad you're taking your loss well.
15:47
By the way, thanks for shaving, and thanks for dressing, once again. [laughs] I know you're nervous. I didn't know I was gonna be on this show. Oh, sure, it surprised you this morning? Um- First of all, this is my- Okay.
15:56
Can we, can we talk about- Let's have a look. Yeah. Yeah, you look, you look great. Yeah. Can we talk about, uh, you are, for those who don't know, by the way, you were the star.
16:03
Steve Fezzik had his seminar this weekend at, um, where was it? The Golden Nugget. Yes. Steve, Steve Fezzik, Kevin O'Neill, they had about 23 guys. They did a sports betting seminar. It was for five hours on Friday.
16:16
It was all day Saturday. They wrapped it up with a brunch on Sunday.
16:20
You and I were, uh, honored to be part of it on Friday, and can I just tell you, this is being, I'm being sincere, despite your nonsense that you just talked about right there, where you can't take a l- loss like a man- [laughs]
16:29
... uh, you were the highlight of the whole thing. You were fantastic. You did a whole college basketball dissertation. The room was r- was rapt with attention. You were fantastic. Thank you, Gilley, for the compliment.
16:40
You're very welcome. You were great, because you went through all of your in-game stuff, for which you have a WhatsApp during the season, yes? Yes, during the season, when I get around to it, adding more people.
16:51
I have about 400 people on the WhatsApp right now, and I have a whole bunch have asked me on Twitter if I could put th- if I could put them in the WhatsApp, and it just takes time to put people in, so I get lazy and don't put them in.
17:02
But if you send me a DM on Twitter, @twischnev, I will, when I get around to it, get everybody added in, and then, you know, I just try to, you know, as I'm playing my in-game, you know, on college Saturday, I might have, college basketball Saturday, I might have, like, you know, my best college basketball Saturday was, like, 22 and 7 or something.
17:21
I might have, like, 29 plays, you know? Yeah. First half over Maryland, then this one minus six, then, you know, as the games are going, 'cause there's so many games, there's so many in-game opportunities.
17:30
So I'll have a lot, and then I'll try to put them all on the thing. It's really unbelievable- And, um-... 'cause I, 'cause you're, you're doing the box scores, you're then formulating the bets.
17:38
These are, these are largely, by and large, in-game totals that you're playing, either first half or full game. Then you're... transmitting them out to your WhatsApp group, to, to us jabronis in your little friend group.
17:50
So it's like a, it's massive amount of work that you do. It, it's a- But you were great conveying. You should really do, like, a teaching thing like that more often 'cause you're really good at it. Thank you.
17:59
I appreciate that. My college basketball is, is, in game is very good. I've been over, you know, 50, 60, 70 units a season the last couple years, you know. My, my in-game baseball has been terrible.
18:10
Just so you know, I'm not on here just trying to say I'm the greatest. Yeah. I'm certainly not part of the- Baseball doesn't like you... gambling ecosystem where everyone wins and no one loses.
18:20
[laughs] No, I've been taking it in the shorts in baseball. Yeah. A perfect example would be yesterday.
18:25
I'm sitting next to Gil, and it's three-nothing after two innings of the Brewers, and I'm like, "I think the Brewers are gonna smash them again," and he's like, "Yeah, that's kind of what we've been watching all weekend."
18:34
[laughs] Yeah. So now we have to decide what should we do. I originally brought it up 'cause I said, "Maybe we should play Brewers team total over six and a half."
18:41
Seven more at bats for the Brewers, three and a half more runs, and then we started looking at it more and, and I decided to take minus three first five because I liked how the Henderson kid was pitching for the Brewers, and I figured we're up three-nothing, we have three more innings, we can just win these three innings, and if not, it'll be a push.
18:58
Of course, Gilly takes the minus three and a half for the game- Yeah... 'cause he's smarter than me, and what happens? One run in the fifth inning [laughs] by Washington, so it's three-one going to the sixth.
19:08
The final score, Brewers 14 and the Nationals three. That's been a microcosm of my baseball season. You found the one bet to lose on a 14 to three game. It's inc- uncanny how I can- Well-...
19:20
find a way to lose a game I should have never lost. Uh, Felika just said the best bet in college football is Penn State to make the college football playoff this year at minus 265.
19:28
I say the best bet in sports betting, period, is when Todd Wishnev, my friend here, uh, says a, uh, op- openly gives an opinion about a bet, says, "Boy, this is... You really should play the Brewers here away."
19:41
Friday night Chicago Sky. Oh, you should really- Chicago Sky cannot score if Reese is not in the game [laughs] and Atkins is not in the game. And I know all you haters, you hate Angel, Angel Reese.
19:51
Wait, wait, let me, let me finish the point and then- Sorry... they'll get what we're talking about. Go ahead.
19:53
When Todd says something like that, Chicago Sky team total under like he just said, but then doesn't actually follow it up with a bet, l- that, th- that scenario where he thinks of a good bet but doesn't actually pull the trigger on it, is a lifetime five bajillion and four in one, I think.
20:11
It's, it's unbelievable. To the point where I will even ask you, "Are you betting it?" [laughs] And if you say no, I will bet it. If he says yes, I will completely ratchet down my bet size. And sometimes- Yeah...
20:20
I wanna bet it but I just, I run to the counter, like in- Yeah... the Brewers game the day before I was trying to bet the over seven and a half.
20:27
I run to the counter to get it, and [laughs] Christian Yellich hits a home run before I can get the bet in. Give a, give us a, a macro sort of baseball team totals bit of advice. How do you play that?
20:37
I mean, I think in team totals you have to try to anticipate when is the starter coming out, is the starter pitching well, what does that relief, uh, team look like? Are you the road team? Are you the home team?
20:49
'Cause are you gonna bat eight times, are you gonna bat nine times? There's a lot of stuff going on there. And, um, actually, you know, sometimes I outsmart myself because I actually liked...
20:58
A perfect example would be that Brewers game, right? Right. That Brewers game was one-nothing after the first inning. Yes. I liked it already. Yeah.
21:04
However, the Brewers were sending up the six, seven, and eight guy, and I looked at the lineup, I didn't like the back of the lineup, so I figured, "Oh, I'll do it after the second inning."
21:13
Of course, the Brewers got two runs in that back- Right... half of the lineup and now it's three-nothing.
21:17
But the six, seven, eight explains why you didn't bet it there which I think is an underrated thing that we don't talk about enough 'cause we like to keep that to ourselves, which is lineup position matters, or when, where you are in the lineup matters with an in-game bet.
21:29
That other thing you, which I don't wanna gloss over because you're, you're actually the first person I heard talk about this which is there's two different bullpens for every team you like to say. Explain that.
21:39
A perfect example is, okay, first of all, there's two different bullpens.
21:43
There's the bullpen that comes in when they're tied or ahead or even maybe down one, and then there's the bullpen when they're down two or more or down and they don't think they can win this game.
21:53
Teams will put in their crap down two and below, and then teams will put in their really good guys.
22:00
And like, and there are, there are teams like this that have, like, good guys when the game's on the line, and then their dreck is really bad. You know what I mean? Yeah.
22:09
Like for instance, um, you know, Minnesota Twins, not now because they sold off all their team, but the first half of the season when they were in close games, they had all these good arms to throw at people, Jax and Stewart and, and then, d- uh, Duran, all these good, good arms, and they were solid in those really close games.
22:28
But when they were down three, they put in like, uh, I think, was it a guy starts with the name F, maybe is like Funderburk or something? They have guys that, like, are just garbage, you know?
22:36
And then you have other teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, they don't have anybody good to put in when it's close. Period. They don't have anybody to put in when it's not close. Yeah. So.
22:44
[laughs] But the two-prong thing is interesting though, too, 'cause again, the degree to which the bad part is bad or the good is good is something to, uh, to really know when you're making these bets.
22:54
Todd on the WNBA deep dive next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:06
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23:29
By the way, a couple follow-ups on, uh, Chris Felika's segment. One, uh, someone was asking what was in his water bottle. He says, uh, Celsius powder, energy for him first thing in the morning.
23:38
I know everyone was concerned. And then, uh, a couple follow-up bets. One, he talked about Miami, uh, late in the segment- Carson Beck, for those who, uh,
23:49
f- might remember from a previous Falica appearance, he is on Carson Beck, I believe, 33 to 1, if I'm not mistaken, to win Hei- to win the Heisman Trophy. Not a homer play. He doesn't usually go homer.
23:58
Uh, but this year he happens to be very high on Miami, and he's high on Carson Beck for the Heisman Trophy, 33 to 1. And then the- But who's the coach of Miami again? Uh [laughs] What's that guy's name? Mario Cristobal.
24:09
Uh, is that not... That's not the guy who could've, um- Uh... two different occasions taken a knee and maybe won the game? That is correct. Okay. That would be him. Uh, folks, I'll let you make your own decisions.
24:20
Todd Wischniv, everybody. And then, and then finally, by the way, uh, we're showing Carson Beck at 22 to 1 now. Still a bet, Chris? Yes? 22 to 1? Yes? Yes, he says.
24:29
Uh, and then, uh, the other thing he, he didn't get time to say, Coach of the Year in the National Football League, and I think Kelly mentioned this, that he was considering this last week, Falica is on Kyle Shanahan at 20 to 1 to win NFL Coach of the Year, and his...
24:44
If Cleve is listening, Cleve T.A., I can hear him in my ear going, "It doesn't fit the parameters." Wait, is this the same guy who had a giant sphincterization issue- [laughs]...
24:54
in a Super Bowl once before and gave away a Super Bowl? Is that the same guy? I believe- Uh, yeah... giant sphincterization problem is the correct term. Yeah. Oh, two times. Yeah. That's right. My bad. Two times, yeah.
25:03
All right. Okay. I mean, coaching can't mean much, can it? Thank God you're here to check everybody. Yeah, you gotta check people. Uh, before we get to the WNBA, you wanted to mention something else about bullpens.
25:12
Do you wanna give some examples? Oh, we can go back to that if we have time. L- We, we can talk to- Oh. I mean, we- Okay... we can roll around, can't we? Yeah, we can. Okay. Of course. Okay. The, the... Whatever.
25:18
Hey, Todd, it's your show. Whatever you wanna do. Yeah. Uh, WNBA, which is the other thing that you are... Can I say you're kind of obsessed with it? I love the WNBA. I love... Okay, here's the thing.
25:29
I'm real good at college basketball in-game. I'm real good at college football in-game. College basketball the best. Yes. I mean, I had, like, a 16 and 0 and a 16 and 1 run on two different Saturdays last weekend.
25:39
I mean, last year. So that's my best. Then I would say college football. But the WNBA I've been really getting into, and I'm starting to get a real good feel for it. Mm-hmm.
25:47
You know, what the possessions are like and what, who plays fast. Not starting to. You've been betting this for a couple years now. Yeah, but I'm s- I feel like I'm- Yeah...
25:53
the last couple years I wasn't really locked in and, and really had it down. And this year I feel like I've, I'm, I'm maybe turning the corner in that sport. You do a lot of in-game totals there, too. Yes.
26:04
And team totals. Yes. Y- You bet some pre-flop in the WNBA, kind of. Eh, once in a blue moon. Well, the team totals you do sometimes. Yeah. So.
26:11
The team totals I've done on, like, the Sky when the, when the Sky loses certain players, like Ariel Atkins and Reese. I know, I know everyone hates on Reese, but by the way, she was s- Do you love Angel Reese?
26:22
No, no, no. I, I wanna- Yeah... just say something. Yeah. They had, like, an eight-game streak of covering the spread, and Angel Reese went from a 38% shooter to a 51% shooter, and she was ugly, but she was making shots.
26:35
They were ugly. I'm not g- I'm not gonna say it's pretty. Yeah. But she was hurting people, and the r- the Chicago Sky covered eight... They were giving the Lynx, who was clearly the best team in the...
26:46
or at least one of the two best teams in the WNBA, they gave them incredible trouble. They, I think they, they won one of the games, and the other game was really tight. W- When Reese was playing good and Ariel Atkins.
26:56
And Ariel Atkins was the linchpin that people don't realize. The left-handed guard for the Chicago Sky who can make threes and, and drive. When she got injured, that spread streak went down.
27:09
Uh, I mean, that was the end of it, and they, now they're playing terrible because they lost her and Reese for most of the games.
27:13
So it's Atkins and Reese, their two best players, down the drain, and now they can't score anymore.
27:19
I wanna get to some of your adjusted season win totals plays in the WNBA, but I was j- uh, in the WNBA, but I wanna ask you just real quick from a Vegas perspective.
27:26
So when Kelsey Plum got traded, and I remember just driving and seeing the new Aces billboards, and Kelsey Plum wasn't there. I'm like, and I'm, I'm a casual WNBA person. I'm not as into it as you are.
27:36
And I, but I thought to myself, you know, they're, they're the best team in, in d- in the WNBA. They're a championship team. Why would they trade Kelsey Plum? And what ha- I mean, is it that simple as to why?
27:48
I know they crushed yesterday, but they got crushed in historical faction, uh, historical fashion on Saturday here in Vegas by the Lynx, it was, I believe. Yes.
27:56
Um, by the way, Nafisa Collier getting hurt with the Lynx way up in that game. Up 40. Which is just malpractice. But is it as simple... The Aces, is it as simple as saying that w- they should never have traded Plum?
28:08
Is it, is it more than that? I think it's a number of factors. I think they're getting old. First of all, to me, the, the girl that didn't get enough credit during the big runs was Chelsea Gray, the, the point guard.
28:19
Everyone was A'ja Wilson, A'ja Wilson, A'ja Wilson, A'ja Wilson, right? But Gray was so good from the perimeter, and she just keeps getting older and older. She's, she's lost a step. She doesn't look like herself.
28:31
Now, they thought they were gonna get Jewell Lloyd from Seattle, who was an all-star, and have her replace Plum. But she has really hit the wall. I mean, like, Dan Marino-ish.
28:42
Remember when Dan Marino was, like, great, and then all of a sudden he was terrible- Yeah... you know, right at the end. And Jewell Lloyd looks like she really hit the wall.
28:49
And this was a team that wasn't already that deep in the first place. You know, they would have that Stokes girl starting the games, and she was terrible, even when they were in their heyday.
28:57
So all of a sudden they lose Plum, and they pick up Lloyd, which is a huge loss. Chelsea Gray's getting old. A'ja Wilson- Not as good I hate to say this. I'm gonna say this real quietly.
29:09
A'ja Wilson m- might've lost a little something. Well, don't let anybody hear. She doesn't make the shot. You know, in the past you say, "Oh, A'ja, oh, that's good. That counted." Yeah. "Just put it in the book." No.
29:20
And it could be because everyone's keying on her also, because they know they don't have to guard everybody else. There's just Chelsea Gray. There's Jackie Young. Jackie Young's still very good.
29:28
Chelsea Gray, like I said, has taken a step back. And now the rest, Lloyd, all these other people, you can just key on A'ja Wilson, and then A'ja Wilson feels she has to do it all herself.
29:36
She starts taking bad shots, and then they go into the tank, and then, you know, they get blown out. And they've been blown out a number of the... It wasn't just the 50-point blowout to Lynx.
29:45
They lost to, I think, the Sun by, like, 25. They've had some Unbelievable losses. So what are your favorite adjusted season win total plays right now?
29:54
So I was just looking at the adjusted season wins, and I was doing the Mike and the Mad Dog. "Uh, hey, Mikey, that's a win. Uh, yeah, uh, Eagles, uh, the road, that's a loss, a..."
30:04
[laughs] You remember, remember when the Mike and the Mad Dog used to do that? [laughs] Yeah. So I was doing that for all the teams, you know. Uh- [laughs] "Well, Mikey, that'll be a tough spot, you know, uh..."
30:13
I can't do their, their voices just right, but, uh, like, Sour Shoes does it on Howard Stern when he does- Yeah... the Mike and the Mad Dog. He does Mad Dog so good, it's like- [laughs]... you can't even believe it.
30:22
But anyways, I was doing that, and I was going through the teams, and the ones that kind of stick out, Golden State Valkyries.
30:29
Now, they did lose Kayla Thornton, who's a big part of their team, but they seem to have not really lost a step. This team plays defense. Do you like scrappy teams, Gilly?
30:38
Eh, that's almost- Because you know in college basketball I talk a lot about scrappy teams. Yeah, yeah. You know? Teams that don't just turn the ball over. They're just grind-it-out.
30:45
Golden State Valkyries are kind of a grind-it-out WNBA team. Yeah. They're very difficult on the defensive end, and they're, I believe they're 14 and 14 right now.
30:56
They need to, their, their team to- their wins t- uh, for the season is 20 and a half over minus 140 at Caesar's currently. They would need seven more wins. I believe they're 14 and 14 right now.
31:09
Um, let me see if that's correct. Yes, they're 14 and 14 right now. They would need seven more wins in their remaining 16 games. They would have to go seven and nine.
31:19
Okay, they already played 28 games and have gone 14 and 14. Yeah. You think- This-... that's doable? I think they can get seven wins, and I looked at the schedule. It's not that hard.
31:28
So that, that would be one that I would kind of- You like, you like a buttoned-up team. But- And you like a buttoned-down team. I love button- You like them both. I love when everything's buttoned up. Yeah.
31:36
Because you know what? Well.
31:37
There's nothing more infuriating than your team coming down the floor and throwing the ball out of bounds, or my biggest pet peeve in all of basketball is you throw it to the wing and the guy's standing out of bounds, the guy or girl- Oh...
31:49
is standing out of bounds. It's what I hate. [laughs] And he makes the move to the hoop, and the ref goes, "Uh, no, back the other way." Yeah. I'm like, "Can you stand in bounds?" [laughs] Is it that hard?
31:58
That's what I'm talking about. That doesn't go down on Rick Pitino's team. No, it does not. Okay? Give us another one. Okay, that's one that I like.
32:05
The other one that I like that I was looking over just now is the Seattle Storm. Which, wait, wait a minute.
32:13
Didn't I hear you say that- Under Well, but didn't I hear you say that's the team that you can least figure out? Well, they're just so inconsistent. Sometimes they play good. Sometimes they play bad. But
32:25
I'm saying right now cur- currently, they, their record is, Seattle is 16 and 13 on the year. Okay, that's 29 games. There's 15 games left, and they have their over under at 24 and a half in the remain.
32:40
So they would have to go nine and six to beat you on the under. Ooh. I like the under. Hmm. So if they go eight and seven, you still win the bet.
32:47
And if they go seven and eight or obviously worse than that, you still win the bet. And I looked at their schedule.
32:52
It's not that easy, and it's just a team that will just constantly break your heart and, and I just feel like nine more wins. Ask them to go nine and six.
33:03
They're 16 and 13, so you're to ask them now to go three games over 500 when they've already gone three games over f- in 29 games. Not that easy, right? And they just, the offense falls apart.
33:14
There's just too much of the offense falling apart. Now, is Gabby Williams in- incredibly attractive? Yes, but that's not the issue. [laughs] Okay? That's not the issue. No, it's not.
33:23
The issue is can you score the basketball. Yeah, that is the issue. Okay? And I say under 24 and a half. Okay, Valkyries over. Adjusted season win totals. Correct. Storm- Over 20 and a half... over 20 and a half.
33:33
Storm under? 24 and a half. There it is. Adjusted season win totals. WNBA from Todd Wishnick. By the way, I, I love watching WNBA with you because it never frustrates you.
33:46
Uh, you're really cool, calm, and collected about it. Sometimes I use bad words for ladies that I won't say here on the air. Don't use them now. And, and that I would never say. Coming back with more Todd Wishnick next.
33:55
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:09
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander.
34:14
Um, let's recap the best bets on today's show so we can get back to Wishnick, who Chris Heath has called the wild card on Twitter.
34:21
Uh, Chris Fallica was here with us, uh, earlier on the show, and he had a, uh, a slew of bets. Um, one, Penn State to make the college football playoff minus 265.
34:31
He says the best bet on the board in all of college football. Uh, minus 290 is what we're showing right now. Let's be accurate about that. Sorry about that.
34:38
And then Kyle Shanahan, uh, to win coach of the year in the NFL at 20 to 1. Again, doesn't fit the, uh, traditional parameters, though, the Cleve TA parameters.
34:47
But both Kelly and Chris like Kyle Shanahan to win coach of the year at 20 to 1 if things break the Niners' way.
34:53
And then Chris also had Manny Machado, NL MVP, taking a shot at that at 45 to 1, thinking if the Padres can overcome the Dodgers, and perhaps if Shohei's pitching season doesn't amount to a whole bunch of innings pitched, maybe that's the play.
35:08
Kelly has the Colts money line versus the Ravens, preseason week one. Hey, how about that? We didn't hear that one earlier. Colts money line versus the Ravens this week in preseason football.
35:18
Remember, preseason only three weeks now, uh, as opposed to the four that, uh, existed a couple years ago, and as opposed to the six, six preseason games back in the '70s. Well, we have three now.
35:29
He's on the Colts versus the Ravens money line week one. And then Dak Prescott four to one comeback player of the year in the National Football League.
35:37
And then Todd Wishnick, uh, with two adjusted season win totals in the WNBA, the Seattle Storm under 24 and a half wins, and the Golden State Valkyries over 20 and a half wins.
35:49
Remember, all of our best bets brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. Every host, every guest, every sport recapped at the end of every show.
35:56
And G Bank obviously part of the trifecta, which is, uh, not only G Bank, but also, uh, VSiN and? The, of course, first bet part of that as well. The $500 trifecta.
36:08
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36:16
You'll receive $200 in cash back rewards on your G-Bank Visa Signature credit card. First bet will give you a 100 depal- uh, $100 deposit match, pardon me.
36:25
VSiN completes the trifecta with a free six-month VSiN Pro subscription. That's the $500 trifecta from G-Bank, First Bet, and VSiN. Head to vsin.com/gbank. That's V-S-I-N.com/gbank.
36:34
This one-time promotion is limited to customers opening a new account in response to this offer, and will not apply to requests to convert existing accounts applied today. Terms and conditions apply.
36:42
Todd Wishnev, star of the Megapod, joins us once again in studio for segment number three. How about that?
36:49
Well, you know, y- y- you know, Gilly wants me to get up at this ungodly hour to, to, like, f- you know, 15 or 30 minutes. I'm like, "I'm not getting up to do less than Steve Fezzik with his endless math formulas."
37:01
Okay, I gave you more real sports betting content in the last 30 minutes than you'll see out of that Stevie Fezzik. I'm just kidding. Where, where- Stevie's outstanding... we're out of Stevie's?
37:11
Uh- Out of Stevie's tuchus, okay? That's what I just said. He's just pulling math out of his tuchus, okay?
37:15
[laughs] And, uh, well, the season wins change from 9.15 to 9.17, and clearly that means that minus one is wrong in the week four. Is he doing it in a sportscaster's voice? Yeah, he does it like Harry Caray.
37:28
Oh, hey, this is Stevie Fezzik. Okay, it's not the Megapod. And- Relax Uh, one more WN- It's not the Megapod. Relax [laughs] One more WNBA, uh, play you have.
37:36
By the way, with that said, Stevie Fezzik is unbelievable with the math. Yes. I'm just giving him the business. But anyways, uh, one more WNBA. Let's just talk about a futures pick, a long shot shall we say.
37:47
People love long shots, don't they? They do. They do. How about the Atlanta Dream at 15 to one to win the WNBA? Okay, you now have the Links with Collier injured- Mm-hmm... okay?
37:58
And she, if for people who don't know, Napheesa Collier was the overwhelming choice- Presumptive MVP...
38:03
presumptive MVP who was playing amazing, and just got injured in a 40-point win, a 50-point win against, uh, the Aces the other day, so you don't know how bad that injury's gonna be.
38:11
We know Breanna Stewart is out for the Liberty, and they have clearly taken on oil when they looked like w- like world beaters early in the season.
38:20
All of a sudden Breanna Stewart come, goes out of the ga- [laughs] you know, goes out for a number of games. These, these, this team looks normal, you know?
38:26
It's like, I- they have Vineske still, they have Jonquel Jones, but without Breanna Stewart it's not that great a team. So that's another one of the big, you know, the big name teams. Mm-hmm.
38:35
Um, the Fever obviously have Caitlin Clark out. You don't even know what's going on with that team. So why couldn't, at the Atlanta Dream, who Ryan Howard is supposed to be back, who's another one of their stars.
38:45
They've been winning even without one of their big stars. Ryan Howard comes back. They've got Alicia Gray, Brittney Griner. They've got a bunch of other... They, they picked up Jordan Canada, this little fast guard.
38:54
She's awesome. You know, 15 to one? That's a lot. Love it. Todd Wishnev on the WNBA. Didn't see that coming this morning.
39:03
Um, so I mentioned at the beginning you were the star, with apologies to, uh, everybody who spoke at, uh, Fezzik and, and Kevin O'Neill's seminar. Fezzik was great.
39:13
Um, but with apologies to Crack, who apparently was great. Anthony Curtis was great, made an appearance. Jared Smith made an appearance on Saturday. But the day that I was there, you were the absolute star.
39:22
I mentioned you were talking about college basketball, and everybody in attendance loved it. You got a standing... Well, you didn't get a standing O, but you got, you got clapping. You got some applause.
39:30
Um, so I don't wanna, like, leave without you giving a college basketball/college football nugget. Yeah, the, just a little nugget to think about if you're betting in-game, and that is,
39:42
do you really wanna bet the full game for whatever you're seeing, or do you wanna just maybe bet the first half?
39:48
You have in-game first half numbers now for a lot of things now with, with a lot of these books will have even team totals in the first half and stuff like that. So
39:56
something to think about when you're making these bets is you're watching, like, Tulane play, uh, I don't know, Charlotte or something, right? Mm-hmm.
40:04
And Tulane is one of these teams, they just hand the ball off and gash them for eight yards, and then 12 yards, and then 16 yards.
40:11
And you're saying to yourself, "I don't think Charlotte can stop them," even though everyone in the stadium knows they're going to hand the ball to this fast running back and he's gonna get another eight yards, right?
40:22
So the question then becomes is, are they gonna keep doing this the full game, right? And are they gonna score 60 because they're just gonna keep handing it off and they can't stop him?
40:31
Or is this the kind of team that's gonna bring in, like, their third string and their fourth string, and they're gonna do tons of this to the first half.
40:37
They'll score 35, 42 points in the first half, and then all of a sudden score, you know, 10 in the second half. So you wanna be thinking about these ideas wh- when you have an idea to make a bet.
40:46
Like, much like we were talking about in the Brewers game, right? Yeah. Did I wanna do first five and ruin it, or did I wanna go full game? [laughs] Yeah. You know?
40:53
And so you wanna be thinking about these, these parameters as to what is likely to happen. For instance, I'll talk about the famous game of last year, Furman-Ole Miss. Yes. 52 to nothing at the half, folks.
41:07
52 to nothing with Lane Kiffin at the head of Ole Miss. I'm talking to the guys on, [laughs] on the thing. Mm. It comes out plus 80 and a half. Total for the game was 81 and a half. We're like, I'm jumping out of my...
41:22
Stevie almost jumped through the phone to try to come bet, he was so excited about the bet. He, we all wanted to play the, you know, the dog and the under because who's gonna beat somebody by over 80 point?
41:32
They're not gonna win 83 to nothing, right? [laughs] I mean, you would think, right? [laughs] You, one would think. One would think they're gonna call off the dogs. Yeah. Well, let's, let me tell you what happened.
41:42
It was 76 to nothing, so they had scored 24 more points. It was 52, they now are up 76-nothing, three minutes left in the game. Ole Miss has the ball with their fourth string quarterback in.
41:54
Now, you would think, what's the... By the way, meanwhile, they should've been done, doing this 10 minutes earlier. They should've just been- Right... handing off. Full throttle, baby. They were not handing off. Yeah.
42:02
Okay? [laughs] The, Lane Kiffin was throwing the football, up 76-nothing. It was third and seven from the 17. He threw incomplete. Now it's fourth and seven. Lane, kick the field goal. Go up 79-nothing.
42:16
You're a lot safer here, right? He th- he decides to go for it on... Fine, they do that all the time. They hand it off and the game's over, right? No, he decides to go for it and throws it in the end zone.
42:27
Thank the Lord- [laughs]... incomplete, 76-nothing final. Right. But the point is, is that Lane Kiffin is w- you have to know about the Lane Kiffins of the world.
42:36
But the point is that many times you just want to avoid fourth quarter shenanigans, so you bet the first halves. Right, and by the way, they have the end of third quarter bet at a lot of places now. Yes.
42:45
Like Caesar says, "End of third quarter," so if you think a team is going, you know, pull everybody in the fourth quarter, just make that bet. You know, that's a nice bet to make, and I do that- Yeah...
42:54
sometimes in WNBA even. When a team is way ahead and you're like, "Okay, they're gonna play hard in the third quarter, but the fourth quarter they're not, who knows what's gonna happen?"
43:02
So that's another great bet that you can make. When you do it with your hand like that, I know you're serious. Just bet it. Okay, [laughs] so last thing before we go. [laughs] 90 seconds, Todd.
43:11
Uh, you had an experience with Caesar's. You have a public service announcement of, of just r- if people have, have bonuses- Yes... they're coming. W- what's the story? Okay, here's the deal. Yeah.
43:20
Two years ago I was Seven Stars and they would just, you get a $1,200 flight credit, a $600 flight credit. You call your VIP guy, he m- he books the flights for you. You don't even have to do anything.
43:30
Now I've fallen back down to Diamond Elite 'cause I don't use Caesar's a m- as much because when I'm in the Rivers Sports Book, Caesar's doesn't work in there. Mm-hmm. So I don't have as many bets with Caesar's.
43:39
So now I'm Diamond Elite, which is a step down or something, but there's still a $600 flight credit, right? Yeah. So I text my host and I say, "Hey, can you book me the flight?"
43:47
He goes, "Oh, I'm sorry, you're not Seven Stars anymore. I can't do it for you, but what you can do is just buy the flight and go to Caesar's Rewards. They'll give you free play for the money."
43:55
I said, "Okay, fine, I'll do that," right? So before I even did it though, I called the host three different times and said, "Hey, how does this work?"
44:03
And they're like, "Yeah, you just go make your flight, you know, show us the receipt." Some, someone would say you were pedantic about it. I'm pedantic. Yeah.
44:09
And if you don't know what pedantic means, it's annoying as hell- Yeah... to find out exactly how it works, which I did three other occasions. So now I get here to Vegas, I go to Caesar's Rewards desk- 20 seconds...
44:21
and guess what? I'm getting the rigmarole. It has now taken me five hours to get the flight credit. Finally, a guy, a host at Harrah's- So your advice is?
44:31
My, your advice is be very careful with these offers and make sure that they are really going to come through with you and get names and numbers and who told you, and get them to text you and email, because they're big corporations.
44:44
Thank- They don't care Thank you, Toddy. Appreciate it. Story next with Money Moves with JVT. Enjoy.
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