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Aug 4, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2026 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 4, 2026 | Hour 2
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46:37
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Transcript
0:00
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1:07
Visit circasports.com for more details. It is a Numbers Game. I'm Dustin Sweetelson in for Gil Alexander here. VSiN, the sports betting network. That's Kelly Bidlin, and we get tweets. We get tweets. Thanks, Dustin.
1:20
There's the echo. Hey, before you start, I- do, do you know that there's a baseball favorite today of minus 276? The Dodgers? The Phillies. Oh. We, we have a Palquist on the mound for Washington. Oh, c- uh...
1:35
Oh, well, he's opening for Zach Littell, I believe. Okay. Yeah, I believe the... Zach Littell, uh, allows home runs at a very rapid rate. That is the thing with him.
1:44
I thought about the Phillies team total today, but, uh, I'm not really in the mood to back them at this point. Yeah, minus 276 on them is pretty absurd. [laughs] Right? I was... That is a big number.
1:52
And yeah, not the Dodgers. I mean, the Dodgers are minus 219 against the Cubs. [laughs] Right. Yeah, yeah. We'll do more on the- On the road, yeah...
1:57
w- we'll do more on the baseball card later, Kelly, 'cause I, I have a couple of K-Pop unders I'm going with today- Ooh, I like it... and I'll explain why.
2:03
Uh, as we do get tweets, wanna read them as they're coming in here.
2:07
And a Buddhist man writes in, and this is a good one, uh, "These are the specs I picture Dustin Sweetelson rocking this morning as I drive to the office.
2:14
They look like a bedazzled pair of Cartier glasses that are tinted kind of pinkish, purple, bluish." I would rock those. I was gonna say, those are some badass glasses. I'd wear those too.
2:23
I would, I would r- I would look a lot like Elton John, but I would rock- Yeah, yeah... I would rock them. @Scola_10, "Nerds, nerds, nerds. Dustin all white and nerdy looking today."
2:31
[laughs] Uh, 'cause I bought a new pair of specs, man. Uh, I like 'em. They're gonna take a little bit of getting used to. And, uh, it's difficult to find glasses that fit my big, fat face.
2:41
Hey, this- It's just reality... this show's tough with new glasses, okay? Gil, Gil rocked a new pair, like, six months ago and had to go back. Yeah, but I, I don't f- I don't fall pressure to peer pressure. Mm.
2:51
Like, the more you hate something on me, the more I'm gonna lean into it. Okay. Like, that's just my life in general. The more people say, like, "I don't like that you do this," I'm gonna do it more.
2:58
[laughs] Like say that John Matuszak's better than- Let it suck then... Archie Manning right now. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah, JVT, if you're still listening, all that did was make him wanna bet it more. Yeah, I know. I just...
3:06
I, I'm gonna stand 10 toes on it. Uh, Colin Murphy writes in our discussion about the Falcons, "All I've heard all off-season is Atlanta over six and a half wins, and yet they aren't moving the number.
3:15
I took a shot on them to finish last in division, plus 160. Fewest wins in the league, 17 to one. Tua's cooked. I'm with you." Yeah, I, I don't see what everyone's seeing with Tua a- and Atlanta.
3:24
If it's panics, I can buy it a little bit more, but you're waiting for him to get hurt at some point in time.
3:29
Someone tweeted us last week when I was in, maybe the week before, about them trading for Zach Wilson or something like that.
3:35
And I'm not a Zach Wilson guy, but as many warm bodies as they could get at quarterback with upside I think would be a positive for the Falcons. Man, I, I... Here, here's my counter. What...
3:45
Who in the NFC South is running away with this division? Well, you and I are both pretty low on Carolina. Yes.
3:51
[laughs] And, like, are you a part of this camp that thinks that Tyler Shuck has all of a sudden revitalized- No, no... everything happening in New Orleans? He was really good last year. I'm not...
4:01
And I like Helen Moore as a coach. S- sure, me too. But- But-... there's all this film on a guy- Yeah... that everyone overlooked last year. Th- they're not launching to 10 wins, I don't think, right away. I, I...
4:10
Yeah, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not saying that they don't win the division, but I'm not really jumping to back them to win the division. No, me either.
4:16
And then, and then h- did the Buccaneers get better or worse from a year ago? Well, how much does the off-field drama impact the actual games? Because Vita Vea wants out. Baker Mayfield has a chip on his shoulder.
4:26
Doesn't have a new contract. Mike Evans isn't there anymore. Mike Evans is g- By the way- Like, they're definitely wor... I'm just s- I'm just saying, this is a division that is full of teams that have problems.
4:35
By the way, M- Mike Evans, I remember Baker Mayfield, he played through injuries last year. Yeah. You think in a contract year he's gonna w- be willing to suit up and risk it like he did a year ago?
4:45
I've always been a Baker fan. Honestly, how he's handled this, uh, during the training camp has only made me a bigger fan. Oh, he rules.
4:51
And by the way- But like the, like- Also- How many teams do I have to go to, win ball games, spill blood, and you guys promise me stuff, don't do it- No, but the- Like, I love that guy. I love it...
4:59
th- this, this'll be the best thing for him. Baker's a gambling man. He is. He's betting on himself. Yeah. A- and in the end, l- what if the Rams win the championship and Matthew Stafford says, "I'm going out.
5:08
Second ring, I'm done." I know they drafted Ty Simpson. Work out a deal for Baker Mayfield. You can trade Ty Simpson or d- do something else with him down the road. Or Minnesota comes calling. Yeah, man. I... Yeah, sure.
5:19
Someone is gonna want Baker Mayfield. Someone who misses out on one of the quarterbacks in this draft. Carolina Panthers. [laughs] Well, I thought about that too. I thought about that.
5:26
I don't, I don't think he's going back to David Tepper. I don't think so either. I don't think he was a fan. Chance Copperpot writes in, "Dustin, your new glasses are giving me big bathrobe vibes, not Subaru vibes."
5:35
James Fessler with a great tweet, @mizzou_soldier. Yeah, that's what I was, I was thinking of this. "Love when Dustin Sweetelson guest hosts the Numbers Game where numbers never lie.
5:41
Also, Dustin," quote, "stop using numbers to hedge your opinions." [laughs] You know, I don't... It's not that I don't believe in numbers to create your opinions, but I think too many people have an opinion.
5:50
They go back and they go, "Well, the numbers say X, Y, and Z," to make them feel better about things. Sometimes you can just say, "This is the situation. This is what I saw."
5:58
You don't have to say EPA per drop back is the reason why something is good or bad. Okay... just my thought. I'm a little, I, I'm a little over the analytics Well, put things in context, yeah.
6:06
I'm a, I'm just a little over the analytics, mainly 'cause maybe I'm just stupid, and whenever I reference them, it blows up in my face. [laughs] Maybe that's part of it.
6:14
It sounds like it's coming from a sensitive spot, that's for sure. Yeah, yeah. It's personal. That's what it sounds like. Speaking of personal, who you decide to bet on every week in the NFL, that is a personal choice.
6:22
I do not judge. So I tasked Kelly with this: Who are the top five coach-quarterback combos that he likes to bet on? And I made my list, he made his top five.
6:33
It's not necessarily the best, but it's who in certain situations you go, "You know what? I like putting my money on this person." Because nobody's an automatic fire every single week.
6:43
It's about whether you believe that that person's gonna show up and cover the number, whether as a favorite, whether as a dog, however it may be. So Kelly, without further ado, who is your top five? Yeah, this is...
6:53
I guess I took it more as the top five I trust. Yeah. But, yeah, trust to bet on- Yeah... is usually, usually how it plays out.
6:59
I think there is one pair that you, that you brought up pre-show we'll, we'll, we'll get into it about. Uh, number one, Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay. I, I just think that is the... We, we saw this play out last year.
7:10
The, one of the best offensive minds in football is Sean McVay. You've got Matthew Stafford running an elite offense, uh, there in LA. That was pretty easy, actually, for me to go number one. Yeah.
7:20
I did go Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid number two. Uh, there's been some injuries. There has been, you could, you could take a step back and say some stat decline here from Patrick Mahomes over the past couple years.
7:30
That's fair. Um, don't know if they've got all the weapons needed on the offense to kinda turn back time and look like a championship team again, but we've seen this pair get it done for many years.
7:41
I'm still confident to put them this high, uh, on the list, Dustin. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, number two. Number three, I guess is where I'm getting a little aggressive, but I'm a believer.
7:50
I think- Oh, I don't believe you're being aggressive. Okay. I thought about going higher. Yeah, I, I thought so too, but I was like, "I can't do it to Mahomes and Andy Reid." Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson.
7:58
I think Ben Johnson, right there with Sean McVay, immediately there were the questions, how much of it was the setup in Detroit.
8:04
Coming to Chicago, I think we saw his, his ability as a coach completely play out last season. I think it continues. I am not one of those people that thinks Chicago, uh, is due for a ton of regression this year.
8:15
I think they have a real chance in the NFC North. And I think Caleb Williams, it, proved some doubters wrong last year, including me. I, I think I was one that still had massive questions about Caleb Williams.
8:25
I think he's a baller. He's lost some weight. I think he d- I think he has, he's in for a big season this year. Number four, Josh Allen and Joe Brady, because the head coach doesn't matter with Josh Allen.
8:36
That's how I took this one, [laughs] Dustin. The head coach, enter any name there, Josh Allen elevates you to this level. Number four.
8:43
And then number five, and maybe I'm low on this one, may- absolutely a chance for this pair to rise this season, Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan.
8:52
I have a feeling you probably have them even higher, because don't you have an MVP, uh, MVP bet on Brock? I don't, because I don't do well betting on them. Yeah, I, I... It's been mixed results for me too.
9:02
The, the, the rare time they're an underdog- Mm-hmm... yes. As a favorite, I've been wrong, I've been right. It's kinda 50/50 with them.
9:10
W- when I look at your list, so the reason Kansas City, I don't have them on mine, is I've been annoyed by the style of play that they go with the last few years. Mm-hmm.
9:18
The condensing the game, the limiting possessions, the relying on the defense, Mahomes in the fourth quarter. They win, but they don't cover as much as I need them to to just, like, really trust them like I used to.
9:27
If you're going straight up, you're doing the Moneyline parlay, yeah, you back Kansas City, but they're not always covering the number, at least when I'm betting on them, from my perspective.
9:35
All right, I, we have a couple that are the same. Let, let's, let's go with mine. We both have McVay and Stafford number one. I mean, that's not even a debate for me.
9:42
So McVay 87 and 72 against the spread, 60 and 48 against spreads of favorite. 50, 42, and three covering since Stafford arrived in '21.
9:51
But here's the deal, outside of Thursday night last year against San Francisco when I lost in Survivor [laughs], um, I trust McVay to have plays in his back pocket ready to go when he needs something.
10:02
And you know he's prepared, you know he can make adjustments, and you know that Stafford can make all the throws. Mm-hmm. That's the other element here.
10:09
The quarterback, and I think Stafford last year when he won MVP was operating at a Brady-like level. That, that is the highest compliment I can pay.
10:17
He was so advanced, just, like, watching the play play out in front of him and developing. He knew what to do with the football b- before it happened. So that's why they're number one.
10:27
Number two for me is DeMeco Ryans, C.J. Stroud. Not because I like betting them against the spread. I like this. You went a different way with this. It's because I know they're dictating the style of the fight.
10:37
It's less about covering, it's more about knowing the game flow.
10:41
16 and 11 as an underdog, six and three against the spread as a home dog, but here's where the numbers really tell the story, speaking of hedging your opinion with numbers. Ooh.
10:49
17 and 10 to the w- and one to the under at home. 17, 11 and one to the under away. 17, 11 and one under as a favorite. 17, nine and one to the under as an underdog.
10:59
You know it's gonna be a low-scoring game if they are involved, partially because C.J. [laughs] Stroud has some issues, but two, because that defense is always dialed all the way up.
11:08
Number three for me, I'm going with the Bears, and I debated putting them at two. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson. You just, you know that Ben Johnson has something ready to go.
11:16
He's also ready to just unload the playbook at any point in time to win a random game with crazy plays, throws to, to, to offensive linemen, tight ends, completing passes.
11:25
Like, he's always got a trick up his sleeve to ensure he gets the win.
11:28
But when you bet your money, you feel good that you know the coach that you're betting on is gonna pull out all the stops to keep it close and try and cover that number if he's ahead. Number four, give me Seattle.
11:40
Mike McDonald, Sam Darnold. Darnold only brings this down 'cause I'm scared of the turnovers, even though I am a Darnold guy. Mm-hmm. But Mike McDonald, 12, four, and one against the spread on the road.
11:49
That tells you how good of a coach he is to cover on the road routin- routinely. And then lastly, I have the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert. It's more about the way they are together.
11:59
A lot of the transgressions for Herbert, I think are from the Brandon Staley era. And the way he's played under Harbaugh, I believe in them 'cause it comes down to the fourth quarter making throws.
12:09
Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But I think that the way that they're playing off of each other, they could be due for a big year here. [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge.
12:23
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13:40
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:57
It's a numbers game, Dustin Sweetolson in for Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin coming up 45 minutes from now. Spanky's gonna be in studio, talk a little- He will... bet bash here. Bet bash getting started this week.
14:08
Our next guest will be, uh, doing a seminar there, I believe. That's what I thought. Yeah. Yeah, that was, that was gonna be the transition here, where you're reading my brain right now.
14:16
I looked at, uh, the people who are speaking, and I saw our next guest being listed there. So I think that is worth the price of admission alone. You can get an extended conversation.
14:25
You can also see the luscious locks of Drew Dincic in person, in the flesh. He joins us now, NBC sports betting analyst, the podcast, The Deep Dive, @whale_capper on X.
14:36
And Drew joins us here on the Progressive guest line. So Drew, talk to me. I believe I saw you're listed to do a little seminar on tennis betting.
14:44
[laughs] Before we get to the actual bet bash and the handicapping, when Drew Dincic comes to Vegas, what's the game plan? Like, what's the vibe for you out here? Well, yeah. I wasn't told I was doing tennis betting.
14:56
Is that really what I'm on? I don't think so. [laughs] No, I'm just kidding.
14:58
It's gonna be a great segment on tennis betting, and honestly, like, you know, a, a lot of people probably bellyaching that there's no sports on, blah, blah, blah, all we got is baseball.
15:07
Uh, I can see behind you on the big screens there, there's some good tennis matches on this week. Uh, we have both, uh, Toronto and Montreal. That's, of course, the men's and women's Canadian Opens going on right now.
15:19
Uh, this is a big, big deal. We're ramping up the hard court swing into the US Open.
15:24
And, um, a friend, a friend of the program, uh, who lives in the UK will be joining me on the panel to talk about, uh, just some of the basics of tennis handicapping. We're gonna talk about some of the, um...
15:36
you know, tell some stories, obviously.
15:38
Uh, and then we're gonna get into a, a deep dive of the US Open, and how we are seeing s- you know, player c- player form heading into the US Open, uh, strategies for betting slams match by match and futures and outrights.
15:50
And, um, honestly, uh, we put together a Google Doc and have just kind of filled it with, uh, ideas that we wanna cover. Um, it's gonna be very, very tough to squeeze it into an hour.
16:00
[laughs] Um, but we're gonna, we're gonna do that, and we're gonna leave time at the end for Q&A for anyone who's kind of getting into tennis handicapping and wants to pick our brain on that experience and, uh, and, uh, strategy.
16:11
So, uh, should be a lot of fun. Everyone will leave that seminar w- uh, kind of an equal mix of, um, you know, kind of educated and entertained, uh, is the goal. But what is the Dincic move?
16:20
What's the vibe when you get to town? When you come to Vegas, like, what's your go-to moves? Um, I'm all business. I get...
16:28
I mean, what's, you know what's funny is, uh, um, you know how your apps are on your phone are always spying on you? [laughs] Yeah. Well, I pretty much, uh, flip open Uber, and it's like, "You need a ride to Circa?"
16:40
[laughs] It's like, "Yeah." Oh, by the way- Actually, yeah. [laughs]... you know what? You bring this up, you bring this up. I do. [laughs] There's a- Saved, yeah...
16:45
at the same time as bet bash, there's a hacker convention going on the same time in Vegas. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah So be careful with those apps spying on you right now. Yeah. That's like every year now.
16:53
Just com- just, just completely, uh... it's just complete, complete random luck, uh, that that's happening. [laughs] But yeah, no, uh, you know, it's a small world. Um, but no, I, uh, I ride to Circa.
17:03
Um, I, uh, I kinda settle in, uh, drink, drink a healthy amount of water. Um, and, uh, yeah, I mean, I, I'm... my...
17:11
you know, my Vegas experiences, I try to keep them relatively tight in terms of time spent boots on the ground. Um, and, uh, and I t- keep it very, very lean, time spent minutes in the room.
17:21
So, uh, drop off the stuff, uh, and hit the casino floor, and then, uh, try to get to bed by 5:00. Yeah. I respect that move. Get to bed by 5:00. There you go.
17:29
I, I res- I respect that move, even though it goes against all conventional wisdom, what everyone does when they come to Vegas. But you know what?
17:35
[laughs] I, I'm, I'm meeting new people who treat V- Vegas differently, and I think as I get older, I treat it differently. Sure, yeah. I think if I didn't live here, I'd be more about the relaxation aspect- Mm...
17:46
of Vegas than I would about the actual, like, getting hammered and running around, having a good time. Kelly's like, "I don't know what you're talking about." [laughs] "I would never do that in my life." Okay.
17:54
Hey, you can do all of that, yeah. Well, speaking of hype, the hype in Vegas is to, to party and have a good time. Let's talk about NFL teams coming into the year. Lot of hype around them. Mm.
18:01
Who you not buying, what you're seeing out there, Drew? Yeah, it's a funny kind of mix of buying and, you know, the, uh, like, you know, it-- like you said, there's hype around 30 of the 32 NFL teams.
18:12
Um, and some of it is stuff I am buying into, like I, I happily buy into the Mike Mc- uh, Mike McDaniel hype and what he's gonna do for that Chargers offense, happily. Mm-hmm.
18:24
Happily buying into what, uh, Jesse Minter is gonna mean for the Ravens defense, happily.
18:29
Uh, less interested in, uh, what I think is kind of strangely turning into the, kind of the intelligentsia pick for the Super Bowl, which is the Houston Texans. I am very, very, very, very buyer beware on the Texans. Mm.
18:45
I don't think this is an especially good offense. I think there's huge questions about how high of a ceiling C.J. Stroud affords you as far as offense of, you know, just reaching your, you know, reaching a, a ceiling.
18:57
I, I, I think that the, um, what's happening is pretty obvious.
19:02
Everybody is looking at what happened last year with the Seattle Seahawks and being like, "Man, if you just have an absolute, you know, soul-crushing defense, you can just win the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold."
19:13
So as I look across the NFL, like obviously the personnel and the Texans, they have a soul-crushing defense. They could win, right? Right. And it's like y- y- yeah, sure, they could.
19:23
Uh, but, you know, that's, uh, is C.J. Stroud the, uh, what is he, the third best quarterback in the AFC South? Uh, f- I mean- Yeah... if, if Daniel Jones didn't do his ACL, is he the fourth best, you know?
19:36
Or if he didn't do his- He might be... Achilles, excuse me. Yep. Is he the fourth best?
19:39
Uh, you know, it's, it's, it's definitely, um, you know, that's the one thing that I've kind of noticed everyone with a pulse is sort of gravitating towards the Texans.
19:47
The FTN Almanac obviously has very interesting kind of content and really, really, uh, love reading sort of the pros, uh, about the teams.
19:57
Um, their projections on the Texans to me look wildly bullish, [laughs] and I really do not understand how they're coming up with some of these numbers on this offense.
20:05
This is still an offensive line that's clearly bottom five in the NFL, in my opinion. C.J. Stroud I think is a little bit broken when it comes to, uh, you know, facing quick pressure.
20:15
Um, and you know, they have an awesome wide receiver room. Uh, but the running back room and the tight end room are, are lacking.
20:20
I don't, I, I just, I'm not, I'm not seeing the offensive complimentary side of the Texans to warrant any type of real serious consideration of a threat in the, uh, uh, in the AFC. Yeah. I think... Yeah, go ahead.
20:32
Drew, is, is, uh, is there a, is there a sell for you right now in the futures markets o- on Houston? Or is it a play on Jacksonville? Or is it just kind of a look to play against Houston once we get into the season?
20:44
'Cause I, I think I'm, I'm with you. This is high, high floor team for me because of the defense. Yes. But I don't know what the ceiling's like, and I think that ceiling in Jacksonville might actually be a little higher.
20:55
There's a little bit more room for hope there for me at least. This is a, you framed the question well, because you're right.
21:01
The Texans are in a bucket with the Seahawks, and the Vikings, and, you know, and, um- Broncos... you know, to a degree.
21:08
The Bron- oh, Broncos, although I'm starting to get a little whiff about the Broncos that I'm not loving also. Ooh, okay. I'll get to that in a second.
21:15
But yeah, you know, these teams in a bucket where you look at what they did last year defensively and it's obvious there is a high floor, which is gonna kinda keep them competitive throughout the season, right?
21:25
They're not gonna lose games to bad teams very often. They're gonna kinda get into that double digit win range they need to have a seat at the table come playoffs.
21:34
Um, but if you don't have the, uh, potential for a step forward offensively, I don't really think you can, uh, you can make it to the Super Bowl.
21:41
I mean, uh, the, I guess, and I guess I look at specifically the, you know, kind of the magic of what Seattle did last year and the fact that, um, you know, you had this, you know,
21:51
truly remarkable season from JSN, breakout from, you know, Sam Darnold with Clint Kubiak. Like, that was a great combination on paper before the season started, and, uh, I'm not necessarily seeing that with Houston.
22:03
But I think the answer is you're g- they're gonna be in the mix, even if it's just a wildcard. Um, and you're gonna have to just pick your time to pull the rip cord on them and bet, bet against them with conviction.
22:13
Um, that was the way it was with them last year. I remember, um, Houston was probably my favorite handicap of the entire playoffs.
22:20
Uh, they were so very clearly, uh, gonna be able to exercise their advantage with the pass rush against Aaron Rodgers that they were an easy bet on. And again, like C.J. Stroud was terrible in that game. Didn't matter.
22:31
Mm-hmm. Um, and then, you know, the next game against the, uh, the Patriots, it was again pretty straightforward. Like, [laughs] you know, they, they, they, they're, they're in, uh, in harm's way here and, and C.J.
22:42
Stroud is not the guy that's getting them across the finish line in, in this type of condition. So, um, I think basically it's just a matter of timing your pull the rip cord on the Texans if everyone is a believer.
22:52
And right now, for whatever reason, everyone's a believer. Yeah, Drew, I wanna believe, but the, the big hangup for me is the offensive line isn't better. [laughs] And if the offensive line isn't better, how is C.J.
23:02
Stroud gonna improve on what was a horrific year a year ago? He's Drew Dincic. Check him out, NBC Sports Deep Dive podcast on X @whale_kapern. If you come to BetBash, you can see him in person. Thanks for the time, Drew.
23:15
I'll see you walking around Circo over the next week. I love it. Best of luck, guys. Awesome stuff from Drew per usual there. You want some more awesome stuff? You want Heisman breakdowns.
23:25
You wanna look at the best quarterbacks in college football. An awesome write-up from a, a few people here that I just wanna highlight that jumped out to me. Jensen Lewis buying the LSU hype plus $1.60.
23:36
Ben Stevens on win totals for UCLA looking at New Mexico to win the Mountain West Conference. You can check all that out in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide. Sign up for VSiN Pro today.
23:47
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24:01
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24:14
He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Dustin Swedelson. And when we return, how impressionable can you be off of a soundbite of a player talking about his head coach, and does that make you rethink the way you're looking at a division?
24:27
That's something I'm asking myself. I might be dead wrong about fading this team this year and might need to walk back my steps. I'll tell you who that is next on A Numbers Game.
24:36
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:56
[upbeat rock music] Yeah, buddy, back at it on A Numbers Game. That's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Dustin Swedelson, hanging out here for Gil Alexander the rest of the week here as we get you set. Bet Bash is upon us.
25:07
Spanky, who puts the whole thing on, will be joining us in, uh, what time is it? Uh- Yeah... 45 minutes on the dot? 30 minutes. 30 minutes. Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. I can't do math. Yeah, 30 minutes.
25:15
Uh, 30 minutes here on the show. Pretty good. So, all right. Well, we'll- No, you're filling in for Gil. Drew's filling in for Gil. Pretty, pretty sure Gil was supposed to do that tennis, uh- [laughs] Oh. [laughs] Oh.
25:27
Drew, Drew did s- not just a great guest, a great friend too 'cause I think, uh, I think Gil had to make some quick phone calls. [laughs] You know what? That is, that is certainly interesting now.
25:36
Ol' Gil hanging out- Oh... in San Francisco. That's right. And, uh, unfortunately for Drew, that means he has to now [laughs] lead the seminar at Bet Bash. I think that's how that works, yeah. [laughs] That is...
25:48
Dude, that's funny. That actually is, is, like, perfect. Right?
25:51
I think it was the, I think it was the Gil, like, nine months ago commit to it, and then, you know, we- Well, dude, that, that's the- Then you forget about things, vacations get set, and it's like, "Uh-oh" Dude, I'm such a...
26:02
And I do this especially when I'm drinking. If you ask me to do anything, I'll be, "Sure, I'm in." Right, sure. And then, like- 100%.
26:08
[laughs] And then a week out from the event will happen, you'll reach out and be like, "Hey, we're still doing it." Like, one time, and I enjoyed it, I'm hammer drunk in LA with my buddy.
26:16
He's like, "Billy Joel's playing Dodger Stadium. Do you wanna go?" Yeah. I'm like, "Yeah, of course I wanna go." [laughs] And then, like, as the...
26:24
I pay him for the ticket, and I'm like, "All right, it's still, like, a few months out." Yeah. Then it gets closer. I'm like, "I don't know if I wanna go," but I also don't know if he has anyone to go with other than me.
26:33
So I go. I have a great time, but the whole week leading up to it- [laughs]... I'm like, "I don't, I don't know if I really wanna do this right now." You're mad at yourself for agreeing to do it, yeah.
26:39
[laughs] Why did I agree to this? Yeah. And now it was an awesome concert because he brought out Pink, he brought out Axl Rose- Jesus... and there was one other big person that came out and played.
26:49
It was awesome, and it was a concert at Dodger Stadium- Right, yeah... which is so random, but- Yeah, that's cool... but yeah.
26:54
I, I, I tend to agree to things down the road thinking that, uh, maybe I'll die of a heart attack- It, it-... before it happens... it's r- at least twice a year I'm surprised out here if...
27:02
It, 'cause so this is what happens, whether it's friends, family, whatever, people get way... really excited about booking their stuff to Vegas. Yes.
27:09
So whatever they book, it's like, "Hey, Kelly, I'm gonna be out there, like, in seven months." And I'm like- Whoa, whoa. People th- your friends are good... My friends go, "Hey, I just landed in Vegas. You around?"
27:19
No heads up. No, no, no, no. That's where I was getting to, though. I get these seven months out, like I'm supposed to mark it on a calendar- Yeah, yeah, yeah... and count down the days.
27:25
And then I get the text like, "Hey, what are we doing tonight?" And I'm like, "I had no idea you were here." No, no. I, I get the, "Hey, I just landed at the airport. You got anything going on tonight?"
27:32
[laughs] I mean, here's the sad truth. Really, no. Yeah. But I also- Like, we do have jobs technically still. Yeah. I don't know. No, no, no. But, like, even if it's a weekend, I have, I have such bad...
27:43
I guess it's ADHD. I don't know what it is, but I need to, like, mentally put myself in a place where I'm willing to be social. So if I'm told days in advance, "Hey, I wanna do this"- Mm... I'm like, "Cool, I'm in."
27:55
Mm-hmm. But spur of the moment, if, if someone reaches out to do something, my instincts are, "Nope, did not plan for that mentally. Can't do it." [laughs] Can't do it. Not willing to do it. I like it. Oh.
28:05
Once I do it, I'm, I, I like having fun- It's k-... and going out and being around people, but takes a lot for me to do. Like, we hung out- It's kind of funny.
28:11
Yeah, it's kind of funny you say that 'cause I'm not a bi- I've... As I've gotten older, I'm not as big a spur of the moment guy either, but yeah. I don't, I don't know. I need, I don't need to hype myself up for it.
28:20
No, see- I'm just lazy... no, it's, it's more just, like, I just, I only have so many hours to myself a week. Right. Ri- no, it is that. It is. But also, being around people takes a lot out of me, not gonna lie.
28:30
[laughs] You know, it can be exhausting. It's exhausting. [laughs] It can be exhausting. Well, you know- I'm exhausting... you know who was exhausting last year? A.J.
28:35
Brown when he was playing for the Eagles, and now he's a member of the New England Patriots. He talked to NFL Network yesterday and had this to say about reuniting with his former head coach, Mike Vrabel.
28:47
It's been great, honestly. Um, I, I go back to, like, the first day, um, I try- I attempted a one-hand catch on the sideline and, uh, we got in a meeting and, uh, he chewed me out. Yeah. You know?
28:57
And he expected me to make the play. And I, and that example alone, it's like obviously I know I can make that play. He knows I can make that play. But it's like, he's like, "Do it. Don't, don't have, do it.
29:06
Do it, you know? If you gonna do it, do it." Yeah. Right? So I'm like, "All right. Vrabel's about to make me turn up, like, make me go to another place," you know?
29:14
Obviously I wanna be great and I wanna push myself, but it's just like when you have a support system from somebody that you, that you respect so much, it'll give you a little extra push 'cause I, we always have more in the tank, you know?
29:25
So that's what it is. That's what it's been like, uh, ever since he started coaching me from day one, and, uh, I've been loving it. So there were some shots within that quote, too, a little bit later on.
29:36
He went on to further just say, like, he, it was, it was a type of coaching, like, he hadn't had in the past. I'm paraphrasing. Mm-hmm.
29:41
It felt like he was going at Nick Sirianni and not being able to motivate him, put him in situations to feel wanted and appreciated- Right... which, look, everyone's got their own coaching style.
29:51
The one thing about Mike Vrabel... Well, there's many things to say about Mike Vrabel these days. But one thing about him as a coach, he is very much a player's coach.
29:59
Like, you think about the way players talk about him. A.J. Brown wanted to be reunited with him despite the way things ended- Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah... originally in Tennessee. And- Which was not pretty, yeah...
30:07
the, the tone of his voice has me wondering, am I r- when we did the NFL betting guide a few months ago, I had the Patriots not in the playoffs. Mm. More about the schedule getting a lot harder. Right.
30:17
We saw what it looked like in the Super Bowl when they faced the, the Seahawks and, and wind up getting smoked. But let's also be fair to the off-season that they just had. A.J.
30:26
Brown, Romeo Doubs, Drake May actually has legitimate weapons to throw to. Elijah Vera-Tucker on the offensive line. Couple pieces and vets on the defense in Draymond Jones, Kevin Byard.
30:37
I like some of the other guys they have there, some of the vets and youth mixed together. Am I too low on the Patriots, where initially I wanna go under that 10 and a half, but the way A.J.
30:46
Brown's speaking, if these guys love this p-this coach this much, and they can have that motivation impact the way that they approach each and every day, each and every week here, am I too low on the Patriots, Kelly?
30:59
Uh, yeah, maybe a little bit. But I, look, I'm not... I don't have bets on them, so I can't sit here and s- act like you're crazy. I, I have the Bills to win the division.
31:09
Still think they're the second-best team in the division, uh, the Patriots. Yeah. The, I, I, I think they probably make the playoffs.
31:16
This is where, I mean, this is where I think the, just the AFC playoff picture is so fascinating to me because Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos out west. You got the Bills and the Patriots here in the east.
31:27
Bengals and the Ravens in the north. Okay, that's kinda seven teams. And we gotta carve out s- you know, someone in- Yeah... the South. So it's one of these teams isn't making it.
31:35
I don't think you're crazy to say that the Patriots could be on the outside looking in. I do think the schedule's gonna be a point of conversation all summer. Yeah. You're gonna hear this.
31:43
It is still, by win total, this season, the 12th easiest strength of schedule as we're sitting here in August. But it's much tougher- That's because the Jets and Dolphins...
31:52
but it's much tougher than it was last season when they had, like, a historically easy s- uh, schedule.
31:57
Yeah, I know I'm in a minority here and th- this may be crazy pills, but I think the Jets are gonna be way more competitive this year. Yeah, we- I don't think they're gonna be good.
32:07
Matt and I talked about this last week, yeah. But I, I don't think the Jets are just the automatic win they were in the past. Now, New England might go 2 and 0 against them- Yeah...
32:14
but they're gonna have to work for it now. Also, New England has the Raiders. Remember they lost to the Raiders last year? Sure. But, like, the Raiders are also better this year.
32:24
Yeah, that, w- uh, w- week one dopey stuff. They have to go to Seattle. They have to go to the Jaguars. They have to go to the Bills right out of the chute. I mean, that, that's a concerning start.
32:34
Oh, that's a brutally tough, uh- That, that-... beginning of the schedule, yeah... that could be a, a, a one in three start right there. But then it's the Raiders and the Jets.
32:40
Thursday Night Football at the Bears week seven. They benefit from the Dolphins twice- Mm-hmm... on the schedule, though.
32:46
Green Bay will be a little bit easier than I think we thought coming into the year, although Micah Parsons should be back by week nine. Then they play the Lions in Germany, followed by the bye.
32:56
Sunday Night Football against the Chargers off the bye. And then it's the Bills, the Vikings, the Chiefs, which is a really tough stretch, those four after the bye. Then they have the Jets on the road.
33:05
The Broncos, which should be difficult, week 17, and they finish with the Dolphins at home, which I mean, that's, that's a win.
33:10
That's the Dolphins in the cold in Foxborough, but- God knows who the Jets and Dolphins are running out in week 16 and week 18. But look, I, I'm gonna give them the Steelers are a win.
33:19
I'll say the Raiders are a win, even though I think that's not as easy as it, as it appears, but I like the revenge factor from a year ago. The Jets, I'll say they split with the Jets. Okay. So we're at three right now.
33:32
They'll beat the Dolphins, that's four. I think that they win... Yeah. [laughs] I gotta tell you, like, I might give the- Dustin ran out of steam there... I might give the Jags the, gi- give them the Jags as another win.
33:48
But Kelly, I don't think they're beating the Bears on the road. I mean, there's gonna be some tightly, there's gonna be some tightly lined games here that could go either way.
33:57
Hot take, I think the Chargers are just as good. Su- sure. I, I... you could make the argument they're better. For, for everything I'm gonna say about Mike Vrabel as a motivator, he's not an X's and O's tactician. Yep.
34:07
Okay? He's a guy who inspires his team and gets the most out of them. And, like, there's a ceiling to what you can accomplish with that.
34:15
I think, uh, against the Chargers, now they'll be off the bye playing at the end of the week, so they will have a rest advantage there, but I still, I, I prefer the Chargers there, that one being played on the road. Mm.
34:26
They'll probably beat the Vikings Thursday Night Football. Ch- I, I think Vikings are gonna be tough. I, I don't see them getti- I don't know if they get to 10 wins. And the Chiefs, ri- I, no, I hear you.
34:34
I think it's tough. Look, I, I do have a bet related to the man we just heard speak, though. I did bet him- You do... Offensive Player of the Year. See, I, I like- I think this is-... I like where your head's at here...
34:41
I, I, I think he's, I think the, the talk around A.J. Brown has gone way too far the past couple years. He's still a guy that goes for over 1,000 yards every single season.
34:49
He's an elite number one wide receiver, and you're going to an offense with a, with a quarterback who has a big arm. He was second in the NFL last year in pass incompletions of 20-plus yards.
35:01
Brown continues to be one of the best deep threats in the league. Uh, 25 deep targets last season. That was ninth most among wide receivers. I think he, I think he could have a big time season in New England.
35:13
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35:54
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Coming at you from the Circus Sports Book downtown Las Vegas. He's Kelly Bedell and I'm Dustin Sweedleson.
36:07
It is a numbers game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming up in one hour, Kelly and I will stick our hands in a hat. I don't know what that means.
36:17
Uh, we're gonna get some names out of a hat because we're gonna tell you who the winners are- Woo-hoo-hoo... of the Winners Circle Proxy grand prize drawing.
36:24
Remember, one entry into Circus Survivor, one entry into Circa Million, both- Winners get WinnerCircle pro- pro- proxy service, a full season of support from our trusted team, an exclusive VSiN Studio tour where I keep saying I'm gonna wear pants that day, but if you prefer I don't, you let me know, and one free month of VSiN Pro subscription.
36:45
That's right, big time drawing coming up here in just a bit. You... That I have, I have cut up names. First of all, they've been randomized.
36:52
I know this, we've gotten questions about this before in the past when we've done this drawing. Bill Adey randomized, randomized all the names. But, but if your name is in it, uh, my Venmo is available- [laughs]...
37:02
and, uh, I will make sure your name is drawn. I've also made this joke. Uh, randomized 10 names, sent them over to me.
37:08
I cut them up into little pieces of paper just like it's preschool, Dustin, put them into an actual hat, and you and I will each draw one of them. We have a hat here? Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. The top hat?
37:16
The VSiN top hat? Yeah, the VSiN top hat. Have you ever worn the VSiN top hat? Oh, I, I, I have worn the VSiN top hat. It is full of names. You can see just so there's no shenanigans.
37:25
We will be drawing names from this hat. You know what? This whole time I thought it was a legit VSiN top- It's just a top hat that someone taped a VSiN logo to. That's like, I don't even... I, I've never understood this.
37:33
I don't know who fir- I, I'm responsible for most of the props around here I feel like. Yes. I did not purchase this, and it's not even like a real top hat. It's like half.
37:41
So speaking of, of, uh- I don't know who bought this... speaking of hats and props, I, uh, Cashing Out is coming back. And we, we- I'm excited, man. Are you excited?
37:50
I, I, I am excited to go back to my own, my, my, my own show and do my own thing and- You've been an awesome team player this entire summer. I know that... I've enj- I've enjoyed it.
37:57
I actually, I, I really liked, one, my schedule, having a life and being here when the sun's out. But like- It is nice to mix up the schedule. Yeah, I know...
38:04
also, people don't realize, maybe this is why I have this, the, the social interaction issues. You become such a recluse working at night. I rarely run into anyone- Sure, yeah... during the week.
38:14
So it's been nice actually seeing the people that I work with. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Because I'm, it's me and the crew. We're here till [laughs] 11:00 at night every night. So it's been fun to hang out with everyone.
38:24
But we had a, we had a show meeting yesterday where we were talking about some, some bits that I do, and one of them is Dead or Alive. I was like, you know what?
38:30
It's a whole Western theme we do for Dead or Alive where we look at futures. I think I'm gonna get a cowboy hat for that.
38:35
And I was like, I also wanna do a segment called Bang the Drum, where like it's something like all these things I'm really passionate about that I wish more people would pay attention to, where I'm literally banging a drum.
38:44
And our boss, Steve Cohen, was like, "Hold on, you're getting a little out of control." [laughs] "We don't, we don't need, we don't need a drum. Cowboy hat works, but relax with the drum, okay?" Eh, it's weird.
38:52
It's like radio guys don't like things that make noises, you know? Well, it's just like- It's weird... I, I get it. Sometimes, look, I am a person who doesn't know where the line is, and sometimes I go too far. Yeah.
39:02
All right, we have breaking news out of the NFL. Earlier today, Bijan Robinson became the highest paid running back in football, and now moments ago, this in from Adam Schefter. Wow.
39:10
Baltimore wide receiver Zay Flowers and the Ravens reached an agreement today on a four-year, $140 million extension that includes 108 million guaranteed per his agency. Now, Zay Flowers, electric player, right?
39:28
And maybe I need to look at the numbers a little bit more. My first instinct here is Zay- [laughs] This sounds like a lot of money for Zay Flowers...
39:34
it sounds like a lot of money that the previous regime has not been able to get him the ball consistently. Right. And I don't think it's his own doing, by the way. I think it's the scheme a lot of times.
39:44
But I just wanna go back just to see if, if my, my gut instinct is substantiated here as I hedge my opinion with the numbers. Yeah, he, he just got more guaranteed money than Chris Olave.
39:53
I mean, he had 1,200 yards last year. It was a little bit better than I thought, but I, I don't know why my first instinct is like they could be doing more with Zay Flowers.
40:02
No, no, I, I agree, and I think that's a pretty consensus opinion. He cleared 100 yards three times last year. Yeah.
40:12
I mean, I guess you could say a lot of this has to do with La- I, I mean, Lamar health is a factor in this too, which would be fair, but- Totally... yeah, that's kind of, man, I don't know.
40:21
That, that's my feelings on him. Chris Olave I'd be willing to pay a lot more than Zay Flowers right now. I also, I don't...
40:27
He's 25, so there's still plenty of prime left here for him, but I do have concerns about paying 5'9 receivers who rely on speed. Right.
40:38
I just, I just think about so many guys who can pop early on in their careers like that, but they don't always age as gracefully. He's not quite at the aging part.
40:45
He probably still has three, four, maybe five more years of prime. But I'm just always concerned about the longevity of those types of players. Sure. Tyreek Hill, right? Yeah.
40:53
Like, like the ultimate example of the best and how they, how it can- How about a guy that they had, they had Hollywood Brown at one point who looked like he was gonna be, you know, s- a stud receiver.
41:00
Now, maybe, maybe not a superstar, but a stud out there. Mm-hmm. I just, I, I'm a little bit ca- I don't know if... Yeah, I have questions about Zay Flowers being your number one, what your ceiling is.
41:10
But when Lamar Jackson's your quarterback, maybe you don't need the traditional number ones that other teams would have. So this is, what, 35 mil a year, just the annual average salary. That sounds right.
41:20
That puts him fourth, fourth in the NFL. Ooh, that feels like a lot of money for Zay Flowers. Ahead of CeeDee Lamb, tied with Justin Jefferson, behind Drake London, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Okay.
41:36
You said Drake London, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and who? And, uh, Ja'Marr Chase. Yeah, I'd rather have all three [laughs] of those guys than Zay Flowers. You, oh, yeah. But no, no offense to Zay Flowers.
41:46
He's not really in that class. No, not at all. He- And then, and then again, like he's, so he's making more per year than a, uh, than Olave. [laughs] Yeah, and he's getting paid more guaranteed. Yeah.
41:58
I, I don't know about this. I mean, he just got paid, he just got paid like a big boy wide receiver, man. Yeah, I think you have to do it if you're the Ravens.
42:04
You're just kind of po- committed to this roster and, and seeing it through. Right. Yeah, yeah. I don't... What's the option? You let him walk? So this is... Right, right, yeah.
42:13
I, I guess I feel the same way you, you kind of sounded about Bijan earlier. So because you have Lamar there and you have Derrick Henry, you kind of don't have a choice, right?
42:21
Like, you have the quarterback, you have to try to run out the best supporting cast possible 'cause it does give you a chance. The, the, Baltimore is in the Super Bowl conversation, right? Yes.
42:31
So you, you almost have to, but man Th- this team, I'm not even just gonna say Zay Flowers, this team could age real poorly here in the next couple- Oh... the next couple years. I mean, this could fall off like crazy.
42:44
Oh, th- they're the favorites to win the North at -112, +184. Jesse Minter and Joe Brady are two coaches in very rare circumstances- Mm-hmm...
42:52
where you join day one, the expectation isn't like, "Be good, be respectable." No, no, no. Your job is to get us over the tump and w- top and win a Super Bowl. Right. The Ravens are -112 to win the division.
43:04
I hate doing it because it's who you're doing it on, but that's why I'm so bullish on the Bengals. It's a lot of transition for the Ravens, and like, let's be fair about this roster. Not great with adversity.
43:15
Not great [laughs] with a little bit of pressure and their back against the wall.
43:18
Maybe Minter because of what he learned from Jim Harbaugh and the way he's operated the last few years, maybe that kinda, kinda kills some of that for them.
43:26
But the reality is, I have a lot of questions about the Ravens this year. So, uh, that's why I lean Bengals +184 to, to win the AFC North. I, I lean, I lean that way, too.
43:35
I'm not, I'm not, I don't think I'm gonna be- Not running... I don't think I'm gonna get there on a bet. I s- I am a believer it's those two teams at the top, but I think it's closer than those odds indicate, right?
43:44
It's just, you, what, we know what this division's become, right? It's b- it's who's gonna be healthy. Is Joe Burrow, who's gonna be, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson gonna be healthy down the stretch?
43:53
Whoever's healthy at the end is probably winning the division. Well, we were just talking about the Bills getting to play the Dolphins and the Jets twice a year. Let's also be fair.
44:00
The Ravens and Bengals get to face Mike McCarthy and Todd Monken twice a year. Yeah, exactly. Aaron Rodgers and either Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson. Like, ah, that's, that's brutal, man.
44:13
Uh, by the way, Kelce- Good, Schefter, Schefter backs up my, I, I was doing that math on the, uh, the salaries. Good. Schefter did back it up.
44:20
Amari Cooper is tied fourth now with Justin Jefferson for annual average salary. That's crazy. It's insane. Now, now, th- look, th- this is all based on timeline. When you get paid- Right...
44:29
you are the highest paid- Yeah, exactly. Yeah... then other people- Exactly... get paid later. But it's just, is Zay Flowers someone who warrants that type of hit to your salary cap?
44:36
I, again, this front office has to do this. They don't have any other choice. You're all in on this year. He's on the roster. You can't do better. I guess the- theoretically, if you're the Ravens and A.J.
44:48
Brown was available this off-season, do you think you could've convinced a, a package to trade Zay Flowers and picks to get A.J. Brown?
44:54
'Cause to me, that, that's what I would prefer if that was something that would've been doable. Uh, I would think you definitely could have done that. But I think these front offices get obsessed with their guys. Yeah.
45:05
We, we, we found them. We, we groomed them. We developed them. We turned them into something. We, we know them better than anyone, so we're gonna pay them.
45:12
[laughs] And, and that's the one interesting wrinkle as well with this, is that the Ravens have a new head coach, but they have the same front office. Right. No, you're ab- yep, you're absolutely right there.
45:21
Man, the other interesting part about this with Zay Flowers is [laughs] the other, the other pass catchers on the roster make him look better, too, right?
45:30
I, it's, I mean, Rashod Bateman hasn't really lived up to it, right? Like- No, it, it's such a weird group of receivers. It, it really is. They've been begging.
45:37
Look, Tez Walker- I mean, to, to his credit, he has been by far the most consistent of the, of this group. I am someone who is very intrigued by what Tez Walker can do for them, the kid out of North Carolina.
45:46
I think he's got upside. I like that they drafted Jacoby Lane last year. This is a kid from USC, was kind of, you know, overlooked because Mekhi Lemon was on the same roster- Mm... but he's got some upside.
45:58
But in the end, it's like Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, low ceiling, high floor receivers. But again, you have Lamar Jackson. Do you- Mm-hmm...
46:07
do you need those stretch the field types that play a certain way because your offense doesn't operate like everyone else's? Yeah. No, I'm with you, man. Well, that's, that's a big deal, man. That's a big signing.
46:17
All right, it's become an annual hallmark on the calendar. Bet Bash comes back here to Circa in Las Vegas. What's new this year? What's different? We'll break that down coming up next on A Numbers Game.
46:29
[upbeat rock music]
A Numbers Game
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