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Aug 5, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Wyatt Tomchek, everybody, the voice of UNLV women's basketball, in for Kelly Bidlow. Where's Kelly?
0:25
Where'd he go? I believe Florida. Oh, he is in Florida. 'Cause that's where he... When he, uh, showed me the map of the hurricane that was h- gonna hit- I see... or I believe it was a tropical storm.
0:34
He was kinda- Is he Gulf Coast, or is he, or is he on the, uh- Ooh, that's a good question. I don't know. I think he's on the, uh, the Atlantic side. I don't know. That, that is a good question. Yeah.
0:44
Well, our, our thoughts to everybody who may be in the, the way of that weather in Florida, and hope everybody's safe. Uh, we're efforting Warren Sharp. We've got Spanky coming up as well.
0:57
Uh, Mike Somich will join us on the show. Um, couple things. First of all, I wanna conclude with the Jets, gives a chance.
1:04
Jets, who FTN has, by the way, just continuing with the AFC East, um, and I have this interesting note about the White Sox from Borchardt as well.
1:11
Uh, but just continuing with the AFC East or wrapping up the AFC East, he- they have the Jets, FTN does, as the most talented team.
1:18
So it's, again, the pecking order, Jets one, Dolphins two, Bills three, Patriots a much closer four [laughs] than you might expect. And it always makes me chuckle, 'cause that is not the popular...
1:31
That is not the conventional wisdom about the New England Patriots. But again, the biggest point about this division that they make, when you're making bets, wild cards, it may seem like
1:43
you'll get your share of a w- at least one wild card out of this division.
1:47
Don't be too sure, they're saying, because of the collective strength of schedule being so difficult and that the division win might be the only path out of here. But their point about the Jets is very clear.
1:59
Um, they were a playoff team if they had above average quarterback play, even above average quarterback play the last couple years. Obviously, they had putrid quarterback play at times.
2:10
Um, their defense, though, I mean, good God. Seventh team in DVOA history to combine a top five defense with a great pass offense.
2:20
Oh, with a, with a horrible pass offense, so the, the great defensive performances have gone by the wayside. Um, here's their thing about having a great defense, though.
2:30
Three primary reasons why a defense declines from one year to the next. The first is health. The second is personnel to- turnover. The third is because, well, defenses are just defenses.
2:39
They happen to decline from year to year or, or just change dramatically one way to the other. Nothing is static. But they expect the Jets to be one of the few great defenses to remain dominant.
2:51
They say they will overcome all of that. For one thing, they've already done it. They were sixth in defensive DVOA back-to-back seasons, uh, 2022, third in 2023.
3:00
They have a defensive unit with a star at every level of the defense. Uh, Quinnen Williams, All-Pro lineman, his brother Quincy Williams as a linebacker, Sauce, of course, in the secondary.
3:10
So they are just stacked up the middle, um, on every level. And they feel like the Jets have addressed perhaps a little bit of their offensive line problem.
3:21
Uh, their offense, the offensive line was even atrocious last year in terms of run block win rate, 29th, and then 30th in back-to-back seasons, but they addressed that with Tyron Smith.
3:31
They've also got Morgan Moses, John Simpson there as well. So it is the seventh toughest schedule. Uh, Buffalo and Miami twice each, obviously difficult run through the NFC West, like everybody else in the division.
3:42
Chasing a wild card spot may prove even tougher than winning the division, and they think that this may come down to, again, it's all gonna come down to Aaron Rodgers.
3:49
It was very simplistic when they talked about the Colts, where it's like, okay, the Colts are just gonna run it back, and they're just hoping Anthony Richardson is everything they expect him to be.
3:58
With the Jets, it's, well, we're gonna get more than four plays, hopefully, here from Aaron Rodgers, and what can a guy at 40 years old do off an Achilles injury?
4:06
As someone, me, who has had not one but two ruptured Achilles, um, and who just absolutely slammed some of these internet doctors who thought that, or who led you to believe that Aaron Rodgers could have played, could have come back last year, which was complete nonsense,
4:21
I will tell you, he, he will be fine starting this year. And as a quarterback, it doesn't matter that he's a 40-year-old coming off an Achilles injury.
4:28
As a quarterback, and one that is not known primarily for his mobility, even though he's able to shift around in the pocket well, uh, I think he'll be fine.
4:36
And I think at least for one season, I think the Jets will have themselves whatever Aaron Rodgers has left, regardless. Certainly not, um... Well, his success, let's put it this way.
4:47
His success or failure will not come down to the injury. Let's put it that way. Now, Aaron Rodgers in his last year with the Packers, maybe even his last two years, was a diminished Aaron Rodgers.
4:56
He wasn't quite the great Aaron Rodgers, but he certainly is everything the Jets would need.
5:00
Even if you get that Aaron Rodgers, uh, and you add that guy to this Jets team, which is already stacked, we didn't even mention the skill players on offense. I get it.
5:11
They are probably the best team in this division, um, with apologies to the Dolphins and the Bills.
5:19
And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we go to Warren Sharp, who has himself a pro football preview guide, and we are thrilled to have him 'cause we haven't had him on for several years.
5:30
Uh, but Warren's preview guide is called Sharp Football Analysis 2024 Football Preview. You can follow him on Twitter @SharpFootball. He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Warren, good to talk to you, man.
5:41
Hey, good to talk to you as well, Gil. Uh, talking to you means, uh, we're ready for football season. That's right. So it's always the best time of the year on my calendar. I appreciate that. Let, let me ask you this.
5:50
How long does it take for you and your guys to put together this guide? Uh, no less than four months. It is painstaking. It's 559 pages.
5:58
Um, it is a labor of love, especially the last two months, getting it all buttoned up and, and ready to roll. And I still play a very Extensive role in, I write about every single team, uh, for the chapters.
6:12
That, that's, that's me. My guys have got a fantasy guy who writes. I got a draft guru who writes about the incoming draft classes. Um, but a lo- I, I've got a defensive specialist who writes about the defense.
6:24
But in terms of the overall chapters, I am still writing 100% of those, and I feel like it's vital for me to do that because that allows me to get a better perspective of all the teams, right?
6:35
If I just focused on one or two teams and that's all I was writing about, um, then I'm writing about a team in a vacuum, not understanding who they're playing on their schedule and how it relates to other teams.
6:45
So I write everything about all 32 teams and, uh, I love doing it. It's a lot of work, but it really gets me ready for the, for the start of the season. Well, I, I, I wonder if you agree or disagree with this.
6:56
So when you first, when this first came out, I talked about it because one of the things I think that you do so well now that it almost gets the headline over everything else is schedule analysis.
7:09
Have you sort of, are you comfortable with that, that like this is kind of your thing now above all?
7:17
I, I am because nobody else is doing it to this degree, um, to the point that, you know, the NFL is locked in on what I am saying about the schedule, and, uh, their schedule guys are paying attention to what I'm saying.
7:28
And whether they agree or disagree, uh, they're, they're seeing what I'm saying, and they're responding to what I'm saying, and they're anticipating what my reactions are going to be when they release the schedule, and I do my rest calculations and uncover who's been advantaged or disadvantaged by the schedule.
7:44
So I, I'm, I'm comfortable with that. Um, certainly do a lot more beyond that, but, uh, absolutely, that becomes my main focus for several days, is uncovering what's happening with the schedule.
7:55
And, you know, to an extent, uh, it, it saddens me to see the direction that it's headed, uh, and that it's been heading, in that there's less care placed upon making an equitable schedule, and there's more care being, or so there's more attention being focused on, uh, just making big games and storylines throughout the season as it relates to the schedule so that we can sell more games on TV.
8:19
And, uh, whether it hurts teams or, or helps teams, that kind of takes a backseat to everything else. And I understand the balance of it all. I understand that you want to get good games and league wants to make money.
8:30
But absolutely, with such a short schedule compared to other pro sports, there are so many fewer games in the NFL than all the other professional leagues, there's got to be a higher emphasis placed upon, uh, making things a little bit more equitable.
8:45
But I do want to slip in, Gil, real quick- Please... that if anybody is interested in getting the preview, if you enter VSIN over at sharp.football, 50% off for your listeners. Haven't been on for a while.
8:56
I know we still got over a month until the season starts, uh, but wanted to just roll that out there right now. Wow. 50% off using the code VSIN. 50% off if you use the code VSIN. Where do they go?
9:07
Uh, they go to sharp.football. And, and basically it, it brings it to just over $15.
9:12
And I'm, I'll also tell all of them, if you feel like what you download there, and I sent it to you, Gil, you've had a chance to look it over, hopefully.
9:20
If you don't think that's worth just around $15, I will happily give you your money back. Just come find me on social media. I'm easy to find. Uh, I will gladly give you a full 100% refund.
9:30
I, I just think it's such a good, uh, reference tool throughout the season, uh, getting ready for the season, but also during the season as we talk about these rest edges, and I'm sure we're going to go into more detail potentially, Gil.
9:41
Yeah. Uh, I list out for every single game that's played what the rest advantage is for each team throughout the course of the season, and so as well as the li- what the lines are right now.
9:52
So you're going to be able to look at this, say, "Well, back in the summer the line was seven and now it's up to 10. Is this three-point change justified? And what's the rest edge here in week 16 versus their opponent?"
10:03
All of these things, it's useful during the season, not just in the months leading up to the season. I completely agree. I would even say this, and I am, and I'm being completely sincere when I say this.
10:13
For the schedule ana- if there was no, if there was nothing else, and it was just about schedule analysis, this is already worth 10 times what you're charging.
10:23
Like, seriously, if you're, if you're handicapping football throughout the year, this ought to be... If, if you don't have this as a tool to always reference, you're probably not doing this right.
10:34
We only have, we only have 60 seconds before the first break, and we will get into some of the specifics afterwards.
10:38
But can you just really briefly tell me, of all the scheduling quirks, which is the one that angered you the most, Warren? Uh, it's probably the San Francisco 49ers getting screwed yet again.
10:50
They had the short end of the stick last year. I know the NFL says, "Well, it doesn't matter. They still made it to the postseason, and they made it to the Super Bowl."
10:57
But it's not fair to make a team have to overcome that. And they play, uh, three sh- three games where they're playing teams coming off of a bye. They have the worst net rest edge that I have seen in history.
11:10
Um, they, there, there's teams like the Baltimore Ravens that play with such a rest advantage, and the 49ers for two straight years now have been dealt the worst rest edge of any team in the NFL.
11:22
Rest is always compounded late in the season, and they play three teams late in the season where they're off of a bye week. From week eight through week 13, they're going to play three opponents like that.
11:33
And by the way, for those who listen, because I've heard this from people who are like, "Oh, schedule analysis is so overrated," no, it matters.
11:39
Like, if you go to the ATS records of these situations, it completely matters. Warren Sharp on the other side. It's a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network.
11:48
[upbeat rock music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:05
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12:17
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12:20
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12:35
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12:45
Or if you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N /special. Gil Alexander, uh, back in the fold here on the Numbers Game.
12:55
Wyatt Tomchek alongside, and Warren Sharp kind enough to join us this morning courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
13:02
Warren, the, uh, the author of his Sharp Football Analysis 2024 Football Preview Guide, which, uh, Warren, once again, for VSiN subscribers, what's the deal?
13:14
Uh, the deal is if you go to sharp.football, you can get this guide for 50% off, which takes the price down to just over, uh, $15. Beautiful. Just put in the... B- by the way, you don't have to be a VSiN subscriber.
13:25
Just anybody listening to this right now puts in VSiN as the promo code. Uh, all right. Let, let me just talk about something that we...
13:32
Let, let's start where we left off, and you were talking about how the Niners have, for the second year in a row, the worst rest disadvantage.
13:40
And again, what Warren's talking about is heading into a game, if, uh, the Niners are coming off, let's say, a Monday night game, and their opponent is coming off the previous Thursday night game, just to give an example, right?
13:51
That's a what? That's a minus four, would that be, Friday night? Yes, that would be a minus four rest disadvantage, and if you aggregate that over the c- over the full year, the Niners just get the worst of it again.
14:03
You, you, you brought up something off air, too. Is Kyle Shanahan and are the Niners aware of this? And if they are, Warren, do they complain about this? I'm always curious.
14:16
I don't know if I've heard any coach complain about, uh, rest per se.
14:22
I have heard back, like, I wanna say in 2017, '16, '17, when I first started looking into it, it was because I did hear something from the Buffalo Bills camp.
14:30
I don't know if it was their head coach at the time or something, but they had been getting screwed by the schedule for a little, for like two years in a row, and so I did some analysis.
14:39
I was like, "Whoa, what's, what's going on here?" And then I started going in a little bit more detail every single year.
14:44
Eventually, Peter King picked up on it, saw him and wrote about it, uh, in his w- no, no longer is being published, but his famous, uh, article.
14:52
But yeah, I mean, there, there's a lot of people that, um, aren't necessarily even aware this is as big a, as big of a deal as it is.
14:59
I mean, I thought I heard Kyle Shanahan mention it, uh, but not, didn't necessarily complain about it per se.
15:05
Like, if you look at the Kansas City Chiefs last year, w- this is like a betting focus show, so let's talk ATS, let's talk betting a little bit.
15:12
The Kansas City Chiefs last year, they had that stretch from weeks like 12 to 16 where they were at a rest disadvantage every single week, and when they had a rest deficit last season of two or more days, they had that in five games.
15:26
They covered the spread in just one of those five games. They won only two of those five outright.
15:32
When they played any other game where they weren't having a rest deficit of two or more days, they went 12 and 3 ATS and 13 and 2 straight up.
15:40
We're talking about 80% cover rate, and that's the best team in the NFL, the team that went on to win the Super Bowl.
15:46
They were great when their rest was not an issue, but as soon as rest became a little bit of an issue, one in four ATS covering only 20% of those games, switching back from 80% cover rate in their other games.
15:59
I mean, if you wanna say rest doesn't factor into games, uh, that's fine. Go ahead and think what you wanna think. Let there continue to be record number of games that, this year there's 101 games that are being played.
16:11
That's 37% of the entire schedule out of the 272 where one team has a rest advantage over their opponent. That is the most in NFL history. Keep throwing all those rest disadvantage situations onto the schedule.
16:24
If you don't wanna bet them, fine, leave them to me. We'll bet those games. And, uh, you know, these games do, uh, end up covering at a rate that is profitable if you're just betting on rest situations.
16:35
Yeah, and the Niners, by the way, 'cause, uh, 'cause it does occur to us that, you know, people listening, "Yeah, but the Niners got to the Super Bowl."
16:40
Niners were 0 and 3 ATS, uh, lost by, uh, against the spread by a whopping 32 and a half points combined in their three worst r- uh, rest deficit games, despite being favored by 14 and a half, nine and a half, and a four and a half points in those three games.
16:55
They just won, they won just one of the three. And all told, they were two and two outright, one and three against the spread when playing with a rest deficit of two-plus days.
17:03
But then the other games, they went nine and three, covering the spread, uh, in 58% of those. So again, this stuff does matter. Give us, w- when you look at the f- the full season then in total,
17:15
give us like a season win total that you look at, Warren, and you're like, "Well, based on my analysis, this, this looks way off to me." Uh, way off, you're talking about just based upon rest?
17:28
Well, uh, rest- Or are you talking about the- Rest or rest and beyond, either way.
17:32
Um, well, if you're looking, if you're looking purely at rest, like one of the teams that I sort of had some intrigue with but couldn't get all the way there was the Indianapolis Colts, and I did not like their schedule of rest this year.
17:46
Their, their, their, their rest schedule is really problematic this season, so that kind of took me off of that one.
17:53
Um, you know, I think the Ravens lost some things this year, uh, from, from a personnel perspective along the offensive line, um, and so I have some questions about the Baltimore Ravens this year, but they're in such a good rest situation that I couldn't, you know, back their unders because of their great rest situation this upcoming season.
18:14
It's the, it's the best in the NFL, number one largest And it's the largest rest since at least 1990 and likely in NFL history. I didn't have the data to... I track all this stuff back to 1990.
18:24
Uh, in some cases, I can go all the way through NFL history, but in their particular case, I did not, but I suspect that it's the best, uh, in NFL history.
18:33
O-one team that I am encouraged by, uh, Gil, this upcoming season doesn't necessarily re-relate to rest because they're basically a net neutral, uh, they're only minus one day net rest, uh, is the Detroit Lions.
18:45
And there's a couple of factors for that, uh, but one of which is, this is all like X's and O's, the stuff that you and I originally started talking about years ago that, you know, I would come on and we'd break down like some of the X's and O's of the game.
18:56
But, uh, with the Detroit Lions, they blitzed at one of the higher rates of any team in the NFL last year, and they got really good pressure, but they were not getting sacks. And I did the calculations.
19:07
This team's pass defense, it's in the Detroit Lions chapter of my book, uh, they ranked number 31 against the pass last season.
19:15
However, however, and everybody knows that, like they were a terrible pass defense, and that's why the Niners were able to come back in that NFC Championship game and win, was because they were able to pass the ball on this bad pass defense of the Detroit Lions.
19:27
However, if the Lions simply did not blitz at all last year, no blitzes, they would've been a top 10 pass defense.
19:34
They were excellent at still getting pressure when not blitzing, just natural pressure, and they were really good defending the pass.
19:42
But the, th- when they blitzed, they ranked dead last in the NFL in basically every single metric, EPA, yards per attempt, et cetera.
19:49
So I think that if they reduce the number of blitzes, and I've brought this information up, I'm talking about it publicly a lot, hopefully they're looking at it as well.
19:58
Um, and in addition, they went out, their first two draft picks were both in the secondary. They also added Carlton Davis via free agency in the secondary. They brought in a lot of new corners.
20:06
They're overhauling that secondary.
20:08
If they can get similar pressure, I like the additions that they made upon the defensive line, I think this team is gonna be, like, it, it's not really a, a shock to say I think the Lions are gonna be good this year.
20:19
I think the Lions are, like, right there to get back to the Super Bowl, in my opinion, this year. And the other thing that's a factor, although he hasn't been having a good camp, is Jake Bates.
20:28
Jake Bates, and if he's there and is able to kick some of these deeper field goals, the Detroit Lions ranked number 25 in field goal make rate over the last four years.
20:37
Uh, that's why Dan Campbell doesn't attempt them very much, is because he has no con- he has more confidence in his offense than he does in his field goal kicking unit, but Jake Bates could be that secret weapon, although I do hear he's struggling in camp, which is something that's a little bit unfortunate for me, because I'm definitely invested in a lot of Detroit Lions futures this season.
20:55
And your bets, your bets are mainly on totals during the year, Warren? I'm on, uh, like their over, uh, 10 and a half. I also took a alt win total. I also took them to win the most games in the NFL.
21:07
Uh, they were like, I don't know, like 11 to one or something like that, so they weren't the favorite in that category. Um, I wanna say I took them to score the most points in the NFL. Mm.
21:16
Uh, this is, this is now a well-known statistic as well, but they play 14 of their 17 games in domes.
21:22
Um, and we know Jared Goff splits, like betting against him when he plays outdoors in the rain, that's definitely a thing.
21:28
He plays a lot worse when he's outdoors, especially when he's in the elements, and to play 14 of your 17 games in domes that are a lot more comfortable for him.
21:37
Uh, and, and I just love, you know me, I'm very much so into play calling and offense coordinators, and I love the fact that it's a coup that they got their offense coordinator back this season.
21:47
Same similar situation to like the Chiefs somehow being able to retain Steve Spagnuolo year after year, even though he's one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
21:54
I think the Lions able to retain their offense coordinator is really gonna continue the upward trajectory of this offense. Uh, Warren, I can't say enough about the guide.
22:02
Again, it's the 2024 Football Preview from Sharp Football Analysis. Uh, VSIN, if you put in that, 50% off.
22:10
Um, but just, just for the scheduling alone, again, three games in 10 days, four games in 17 days, where the NFL has just gone crazy on both of those.
22:18
Warren has all of those instances where it happens, which teams and when, when bye weeks are negated, all of that in the guide. Uh, can't thank you enough, Warren, and appreciate and continued success, man.
22:31
Yeah, thanks for having me, Gil. Let's try to do it again sometime this season. Where do they go again? Enjoy these convos. Where do they go again? Let's- Uh, just go to, go to sharp.football. Sharp.football.
22:39
Let's absolutely do it during the season. Warren Sharp, everybody. Thank you, Warren. Right here on a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. Spanky on the other side at the desk talking Bet Bash 3.
22:50
It's a Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] Hey, football fans. Do you live outside of Las Vegas but still wanna compete in the NFL contests around town?
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23:39
We get texts, we get tweets. Lou Finicaro, Gamblu, has texted in about the Warren Sharp segment. Uh, he said, "It pays to wade through 550 pages of Warren. Great segment. I scour through that like a gold miner."
23:53
It's very true, man. The scheduling alone, just to have that by your side as you handicap games from week to week, like, "Oh, I'm on this team. Oh, wait a minute, they have a rest disadvantage here.
24:04
I should lock into that." And you think you can pick up on that week to week, but having that as a guide is a, uh, as a guard rail, I should say, is a good thing. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
24:12
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback. Haven't read tweets this morning yet. This is from, uh, JasonH11, "How many days does Wyatt have to be in the producer chair to be considered producer number nine and a half?"
24:25
Uh, we don't do halves. It's gotta be three months in a row Three months, good segment, yeah? Yeah, yeah. That's, that's the rules. Uh, this is from Mr. Bomb Apple. Mr. Bomb Apple, "Welcome back. I feel whole again.
24:36
Thoughts on my Padres as a long shot for the ring?" Like I was saying in the first couple segments, you gotta take a shot on, on a team that most folks aren't really considering.
24:45
The Padres are always a kind of like, you know, cool person's pick anyway, and they're playing good baseball right now, so again, based on the number, the number that you can find, they are, they are set up pretty nicely.
24:58
It's just, can you get to the point where you can see them winning it? They're at... They have as good a chance as anyone, in my humble opinion, they really do, in a wide open Major League Baseball season.
25:08
Uh, and this one is from Joby. Uh, "Welcome back.
25:10
Hope you could take some time today, use your platform to talk about the big news in the industry that dropped last week, namely DraftKings planning on surcharging players net winnings at a rate of 3 to 5% in some states starting January 1st, 2025."
25:22
Don't get me started. I was gonna wait for, uh, Crack on Thursday to talk about this. That's when we'll do it. I promise you, we will talk about it then.
25:29
And of course, I think it will probably come up on the panel that I am, uh, honored to moderate on Friday at BetBash3, which includes Billy Walters, where we talk about, uh, legislative stuff in gambling and just, uh, is there a voice for the bettor kind of thing?
25:45
Bettor being O-R. Spanky, the organizer of BetBash3 joins us right now at the desk, at the shield here at the D. What's happening, man? Oh, nothing much, man. Thanks so much for having me.
25:55
We're getting really excited about BetBash and, um, you know, I, I make this pilgrimage on your show every year, Gil, to talk BetBash, so thank you so much for continuing the tradition. Bro, I appreciate it.
26:05
I, I'm honored to, uh, be a moderator once again. Other VSiN hosts as well, right, are doing stuff at, at BetBash?
26:11
Yeah, you know, we're trying to get a- as many people involved as possible, and, um, it's just, uh, it's such an exciting time. You know, this is, um... It, it's...
26:19
We really ramped it up this year with 24 seminars and six live podcasts, so that's the big new addition this year. Uh- Wow. Yeah, so we're really bumping up the educational content and, and, and whatnot.
26:30
Six live pod- So this is BetBash3. This is old- BetBash4 actually, 'cause- Four? The first one was in Jersey City, yeah. Oh, that's right. That's right. Yeah, yeah. BetBash was, the first one was in New Jersey.
26:40
You're absolutely right. Yeah. So this is the third one in Vegas, but BetBash4. So this is old hat for you now. This doesn't make you nervous anymore.
26:46
No, you get a little butterflies, um, you know, n- uh, nervous I wouldn't say, you know. I'm excited, you know. It just... There's always a level of excitement. It doesn't get old. You know, the Hall of Fame is...
26:56
This is our second year doing a Hall of Fame, and this is, uh, you know, you know, the list of, uh, luminaries that'll be present, um, is just unbelievable, so it's, it's, uh- So- It's incredible...
27:06
to the person hearing about BetBash for the first time, what, what, what's your, what's your elevator pitch? The greatest collection of gamblers in one spot? What is it? Yeah, you know, I...
27:15
BetBash, there's a four-prong process, networking, education, legends, and fun. That's kind of what we're looking at, and if you like any one of those things, um, you should come on down. The, you know, there's...
27:24
Networking is the biggest thing, where you get to meet other sports bettors, you know, guys that love to do this m- either for a living or recreationally or a little bit in between.
27:33
Um, and if you wanna learn about sports betting, um, it, it, it's, it's, it's not just for experts, it's for amateurs. We have a Sports Betting 101 panel, uh, seminar that we're doing at BetBash, and I was surprised.
27:43
There's, I think, 90 people signed up for Sports Betting 101, and I would think there wouldn't be that many, but- Wow...
27:48
we, we, we get a lot of, uh, you know, int- intro guys that are just wanna learn about, um, you know, sports betting, dive deeper, and say, "This is the time to do it," because you'll be rubbing elbows with some of the world's greatest.
27:59
And, um, and a lot of the world's greatest come here, and not that nobody knows who they are. Um, you know, I don't even know some of them- [laughs]... how, how good they are, but there are some I know, but not every...
28:09
Uh, people like to keep it quiet, so. So BetBash is August 6th through the 9th. Yes. So, so starts officially tomorrow. Yes. Um, but really gets really full steam right after that, I would say.
28:21
Yeah, tomorrow we have, you know, we, we have a couple of VIP events for early, you know, for guys that wanted to jump in.
28:26
We have a, a golf tournament, a poker tournament, and then tomorrow night is, we have the, uh, the opening night registration cocktail party. And, you know, everything's open bars. We have four open bars during BetBash.
28:35
If you go to the Hall of Fame, it's five.
28:37
Um, and, um, you know, and then Wednesday, like you said, Gil, that's when it really gets vamped up with the speed networking event that we have, which is kind of a s- So explain that to people. Yeah.
28:46
So speed networking essentially is, is like, um, you, you fill out a form, you know, it takes two minutes to fill out, and then w- uh, an algorithm runs, and a computer kind of matches you up with the 15 best matches.
28:57
So it's kind of like speed dating, but, um, you're not dating anybody, you're just networking, trying to create synergies with other fellow sports bettors and... or other things.
29:05
Could be handicappers, could be guys that might have a bankroll, ideas, you know, it could be mentors.
29:10
There's so many different classifications that you could, that you could mark yourself, and then it'll match you accordingly, and it's, it's, you know, people...
29:17
There's people I know that come to BetBash just for the speed networking. They'll fly in late Tuesday night, do the speed networking Wednesday, they're out Wednesday afternoon.
29:26
Now, are those people, those people are looking for what? Outs? They, they... Most of them, I, uh, the ones I know are looking for outs, but just looking to connect, and it's the easiest, most structured way.
29:34
In two hours- Yeah... you can make 15 connections, and all you need, you know... A lot of them are gonna be duds, obviously.
29:39
You can't make 15 great connections, but I always say all you need is that one connection, and then that could just skyrocket. People have made huge, huge connections.
29:47
Lives have changed, and I say that not being facetious.
29:51
Uh, lives have changed, um, at BetBash because of the speed networking event and because in general, just, you know, a lot of people like to network at the bar, um, but speed networking is kind of structured for those guys that are a little bit s- under a shell that, and- Yeah...
30:04
you know, we make them get out a little bit more, and, um, and it's kind of structured, so they have to talk to each other. I've met a couple gamblers in my life that have been in a shell. Yeah.
30:12
[laughs] It's quite, quite a personality trait. By the way, Jason Weingarten, to your point, Jason Weingarten got a gig at Pinnacle- Yes... through the speed dating as well. Yes.
30:20
One, one of, one of many huge connections. Yeah. One of many huge connections. Wow. What's... By the way, this year is closed? This year is full already?
30:26
Well, we have, we have a few general admission tickets that we're selling. Um, the, the VIP, uh, tickets are all gone, so if you want... The Hall of Fame induction ceremony is all sold out.
30:34
Legacy Club after-party all sold out. Um, we have a few, uh, general admission tickets whi- which we anticipate to sell out by the end of today. Okay. Where would they go to get those? Uh, BetBash.co
30:45
Det- BetBash, BetBash.co Yes, sir... very simple. Okay, for general admission tickets. Uh, what has been the thing about this?
30:53
Maybe you already said it, maybe it was the, like, the betting 101 where so many people show up for that, but what's been the biggest surprise of all of this for you that you couldn't have anticipated?
31:02
The biggest thing, I think the, the big breakthrough that made, you know, the coup de gras of BetBash is the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame.
31:07
You know, uh, we went up, and M- Matt Kalf and I kind of asked Derek, uh, two years ago, asking Derek, you know, "Can we, um, y- you know, can you h- ho- house the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame?"
31:18
And he altered his sports book, you know- Yeah... put a, put, you know, put an, uh, an enclave inside his sports book, in the world's most beautiful sports book, the world's largest sports book, and he was all in.
31:28
I thought he was, there was a little bit of resistance. [laughs] He was just, "Yeah, let's do it." And, um, you know, Derek's all about preservation of legacy and, and remembering.
31:35
You know, you go up to the Legacy Club, you see busts of all the people that have built Las Vegas, you know, the Binions and the Boyds and the Corones, you hear all these names.
31:43
And now, when it comes to sports gambling, there are guys that have kind of laid the groundwork for people like you and I to be able to do what we do, and I think it's great to be able to honor those, um, inductees every year.
31:53
So that, that's the big special thing that, that kind of really, really, um, hit home with me.
31:58
I used to say this also at the South Point all the time, and I used to say it in Jimmy Vaccaro's and Chrissy Andrews presence, which is we really are lucky because, well, first of all, we're all getting older.
32:07
Those guys are getting older, and we're getting older. And so this is, we are going to look back at this time as like, wow, what a privilege it was to rub shoulders with the legends who really made this industry.
32:19
Have you announced the Hall of Fame inductees for this year? Yes, absolutely. They're, they're on sghof.com, Sports Gambling Hall of Fame, sghof.com.
32:27
Everything's been announced, and you just mentioned Chris Andrews, Jimmy Vaccaro, they're part of the, uh, selection committee. Jimmy Vaccaro was inducted last year- Yeah...
32:35
um, and, and it's just gonna be an incredible, incredible list, uh, uh, of inductees. You know, Ron Sacco, who is, uh- Oh, yeah... the godfather of bookmaking. Um, Jimmy Everts, who is the co-founder of Pinnacle Sports.
32:46
Jeez. You know, Richie Bacelari, who is a legend in Las Vegas. Nick Bogdanovich, another legend. And then we also remember those that have passed on.
32:54
Um, Vic Salerno is another one who hasn't passed on, um, but Vic Salerno f- uh, introduced computerized wagering- Jeez... to Nevada. Like, you know- It's amazing...
33:02
that's, you know, to, to, just unbelievable what these guys have done. So for those who can't make it this week but are wondering, "Okay, you're doing it again next year.
33:10
When might be my first opportunity to purchase tickets for next year?" So we're gonna give, we're gonna have tickets on sale only for BetBash attendees, um, you know, special rates just for this year's BetBash attendees.
33:20
We gotta hook up the people. You know, they show us love, we'll show them love. But- Right... we'll then put on tick- put tickets on sale probably in, um, in October, um, for next year's BetBash.
33:29
Okay, for BetBash dot- BetBash five BetBash five at BetBash.co. Spanky, everybody, who by the way, let me just say, you might be the only person that could have pulled this off. Ah, no, no, no.
33:40
It just, i- if you have passion, you always get it done. S- That's what I believe Thanks for coming by. Appreciate it. You're the man, Gil. My man, Spanky. Coming back with Samich Zamobami on the other side.
33:50
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game.
34:05
Don't forget, you can become a VSiN Pro subscriber today. NFL and college football betting guides, unlimited access to betting splits, daily best bets, early bird price of $175.
34:19
That's full VSiN access through the Super Bowl. Look at those guides, Wyatt, very attractive, both our college and NFL available. Matt Humans, Wes Reynolds, Adam Burke, everybody does such a great job on those.
34:31
McInin, Steve McInin. Um, and again, we had, uh, you know, again, by the way, vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today to become a subscriber. And we had Warren Sharp on earlier. His guide, we gave a VSiN promo, 50% off.
34:45
It was very generous of him 'cause he hasn't been on the show for, uh, quite some time, so we're very pumped to have him. Um, we get texts, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated.
34:54
Tim Lawson, "Very excited for BetBash," he says. Um, this is from, well, we get tweets at Beating The Book. This is from Scott C, "What a great guest list this week on a Numbers Game.
35:05
Sports betting insights and info like none other." Very excited to have everybody on this week, and that is a definite drift from BetBash.
35:12
Elihu Feustel, Captain Jack on the show tomorrow, along with Drew Dincic, of course, our regular. Steve Fezzik, Rufus Peabody on Wednesday. Dean Sisson from Prophet, Matt Buchalter on Thursday from, uh, +EV Analytics.
35:25
Looking forward to all that. Fortenbaugh may be chiming in as well. We'll see. Uh, this is from, uh, Norm in Vegas, "Glad you're back. FYI, Hard Knocks returns tomorrow with da Bears in training camp."
35:35
The Giants preseason one was fantastic. Fantastic. Uh, let's see here. Trip Tepper talking about the rest advantage and disadvantages we were talking about with Warren.
35:45
"The rest disadvantage is magnified after week eight when players are more banged up," yes, "and need more recovery time, et cetera. A rest disadvantage in week three, for instance, less significant than week 11."
35:55
I would agree with that. Uh, Mike Rouse, "New shirt? I have never seen you [laughs] wear that specific shirt during ANG." I wore it last, uh, whatever, two weeks ago I wore it. So funny, Rob Moreno texts me.
36:06
He goes, "Ooh, new shirt for Gil." I was like, "He's worn it before." I just noticed it 'cause it, the, the design. Love that y'all are tracking my shirts though. Ladies and gentlemen, he is known for Zamobami.
36:16
You can follow him on Twitter at zamobom18. That's the number one eight. It's Mike Samichko with the handle courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. There's your Zamobom. What's happening, Mike? Oh, not too much, Gil.
36:28
Looking, uh, looking forward to at least being at BetBash on Friday. Gonna get in early Friday to be able to see some of the festivities there, and I didn't know it was salmon shirt day.
36:35
I, I could have worn a salmon shirt just like you, Gil. I just didn't get the word. Well, you know, it takes a man to wear a salmon shirt, Mike, so, uh- [laughs]... we only send that memo out to some people.
36:43
Um, I have a question for you, first of all, with the White Sox.
36:45
This is, uh, so Mark Borchardt f- following up on his earlier segment, and this is, I wanna give Borchardt all the credit in the world 'cause we were doing our, uh, Q2 podcast By the Q3 coming up, by the way, beating the book Q3, quarter number three derivatives, uh, MLB show.
37:00
But the White Sox, we wanted to get the numbers on this. White Sox total games played, 114. Games with l- with the lead after five innings in those 114 games for the White Sox, 42 times.
37:14
42 times they've led after first five. And as we pointed out many times on this show, they're actually a pretty solid first five team. But here's the deal. Of those 42 times that they've led after five, 22 of those times
37:29
they have... Let me get this right. Games one with lead after five, 22. 20 of those times, 20 of the 42, they have lost. 20 times they have lost after having the lead, uh, after the fifth inning.
37:44
So that is a, that is a unbelievable rate when the average price is between, is, is right around seven to one.
37:56
So if you do, again, if you just bet that double result, which not everyone offers, by the way, and I know you can in-game this too, but if you have this double result option, which is usually a bet that's known for soccer, but that they lead after five and lose after the game, and you're hitting that every, you know, if you b- bizarro bet, you did it every time, you hit it 20 times.
38:14
That's 140 units on the ones you won alone. So even if you lost all the others, you're just so far up. Just an incredible quirk. Um, have you been fading them, Mike, or is the price is just not something you wanna touch?
38:26
I- I've been looking for unique ways to fade them. So like yesterday, I had, uh, first five team total over for the Twins at three and a half. That was mainly 'cause, you know, Chris Flexen on the mound.
38:35
Uh, he gets rocked by the Twins. So I'm looking for creative ways to bet against them, and I think it's interesting in that stat where they, you know, they, they've been in lead 44 times at the first five innings.
38:44
I'd love to know how many of that was with Crochet and Fried on the mound. Yeah. Because those two pitchers were very, very good. Uh, and today, I'm actually fading them in the first five.
38:52
I'm gonna take the Athletics minus a half run, minus 120 first five. We don't have a starter announced for the White Sox, which means it's, it's a chance we have a bullpen game. If not, it's going to be a bad starter.
39:02
On the other side, you got JP Sears, who's actually pitched pretty well. He gave up seven earned to the Astros two back, but still has just a 3.02 ERA through this month.
39:10
So he's starting to turn his season around, and I, I, like, the fact that you, you hear that they've lost 20 of those games, it tells you how bad the bullpen is for this White Sox team.
39:18
Anytime you can target the White Sox bullpen, I think that's a positive thing. So been trying to find unique ways to fade them because the price has definitely run out on them, where it's hard to just bet the other side.
39:28
Yeah. By the way, that scenario, the pricing for these vary, Mark says, Mark Portress, but they range from plus 650 to nine to one. [sighs] Ridiculous.
39:38
Um, okay, you have a couple other first five bets today as well, yes? Yeah, I do. Uh, one of my favorites today, look, I, I love whenever I can bet against Patrick Corbin.
39:46
Probably the worst tenured starter in the majors at this point. It's been like four straight years where we just get to bet against Patrick Corbin. Uh, the price right now for Logan Webb and the Giants minus 170.
39:55
Don't wanna lay that juice, but I do wanna look at the first five team total here for the Giants. Sitting at two and a half right now. We're gonna go over the two and a half minus, uh, minus 120.
40:05
And if you look at Patrick Corbin's stats against Giants currently in the lineup, they're hitting 37 for 83 with a 446 batting average. Is that good? Against Patrick Corbin. Wow. That is wild.
40:16
Like, that's a decent sample size. 83 at bats too. Uh, if you're specifically looking for DFS or looking for a player prop, Michael Conforto, 12 for 34 against Patrick Corbin with five dingers.
40:27
Uh, so Michael Confor- or, but, uh, Michael Conforto, one of those guys you might wanna have in your lineup there if you're looking for it. Uh, and then one other play for me here.
40:33
We're gonna go Astros first five minus 115. Got Hunter Brown on the hill for the Astros, a lefty, uh, who has better underlying numbers what is, than what his stats currently say.
40:43
Uh, the Rangers bottom 10 in majors hitting against lefties. And for the Rangers, you've got Andrew Heaney on the mound. Uh, he's a righty.
40:50
The Astros, they are top three in the majors hitting against right-handed hitters.
40:53
So perfect storm here with a lineup good against righties versus a lineup bad against lefties, and the proper, uh, arms on the mound for each team. So Astros first five minus 115, the third play for me. All right.
41:04
So Athletics first five against the White Sox laying the half run at minus 120 first five bet. Uh, Giants over two and a half, first five team total, minus 120 in their game.
41:14
Logan Webb starting for the Giants on their side. How about the Giants being all adorable and hanging around? Uh, and then the Astros first five minus 115.
41:23
By the way, Wyatt, your Atlanta Braves only two games in from being out, if you know what I mean. Out of the playoff picture entirely. Only two games. I'm protesting the rest of the week. Come on, Braves.
41:35
Actually, I shouldn't be, I shouldn't be, like, egging the Braves on to lose. Like, the Mets, if you could start winning games again, this could, like, be real quick.
41:42
We have a bet here, um, not only in real life, but also in that VSiN contest for the Braves to miss the playoffs. Uh, you have a college football season play you'd like to share. I do. Yeah. I got a team.
41:53
You know, I, I like the Ole Miss over, but everyone's talking about Ole Miss, so I don't wanna come on here and talk about Ole Miss and their over. I wanna come in here and talk about Illinois and their under.
42:01
Their, uh, their team total right now is sitting at five and a half. It's a offense that's not very good. Luke Altmyer looked awful last year.
42:08
It's hard to throw for just 1,800 yards when you start every game, yet that's what he did. Uh, and this is a schedule that I don't think is very favorable for Illinois.
42:15
They've got two easy wins in their first three games. So give them those two games. They've got 10 games left after that. Well, in six of those following 10 games, they're a seven and a half point or more dog.
42:26
Uh, the final four games are all coin flips for them.
42:28
If they lose those six games where they're seven-plus point dogs, they would have to go 4-0 in the coin flip games to be able to get over this five and a half win total. The defense isn't very good.
42:38
They didn't do much in the transfer portal. This offense isn't much better. I, I just don't see how Illinois is gonna pull off a big upset, and I don't think that they're gonna win all those coin flip games.
42:46
So give me the Illinois under five and a half team total. You got it. Illinois under five and a half team total. Uh, we did AFC East earlier on the show. We did it through the prism of Aaron Schatz' FTN Almanac.
42:58
They've got it in terms of the, the talent. Jets one, Dolphins two, Bills three, and they actually have the Patriots way better than the market. They say the defense is gonna keep them in a lot of games.
43:11
They got the Patriots winning, like, seven ballgames. Do you agree or disagree with any of that strongly? Uh, yeah, I disagree with the Patriots part strongly. Yes.
43:23
I, I understand, uh, that the defense was good last year and good a couple years ago, and you could make a case. M- I don't see how this happens, though, this year.
43:31
Like, this, they are so devoid of talent on the offensive side, and they're have, in my mind, holes on the defensive side.
43:37
Yes, they've got some good players, but, uh, to, to think that this defense is going to toll, do what the Jets did last year, right?
43:42
Where they consistently were in bad positions on the field all the time, and be able to really hold off these teams, especially with three good teams in your division.
43:50
I, I just don't see how the Patriots are gonna be able to win anywhere near seven. I have them for the least wins in the league. I think that was plus 750 when I bet it, and last team to win a game.
43:58
That was plus 800 when I bet it. Uh, I, I think this Patriots team is, could be historically bad. I'm talking, like, two and four- or two and 15, three and 14 type levels.
44:07
I wouldn't be shocked if it's the one and 16 season. I think this is a very bad Patriots team. I think they're last winless as well. We went over that market too. I, I'm with you on most of that. They're...
44:16
You're, you're so right about the offense. Like, um, they're trying to mimic the Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Cleveland structure with Rhamondre Stevenson and, uh, you know, what is it? Uh, for the kid from Washington also.
44:31
So it's like, yeah, it's not gonna happen. Not gonna happen at all. Uh, and the receivers are putrid. Mike, appreciate it as always, man. Have a good one, guys. Mike Savage from The Handle. We've done all we could do.
44:42
Enjoy from VSiN.
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