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Aug 5, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2025 | Hour 1
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44:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:11
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidlin, y'all. Hey, man. How you doing?
0:24
Pretty good. Magic of television, I was just boosting up my chair 'cause some tall person must have been sitting in here. [laughs] But nobody saw it. Nobody saw it. Nobody saw it.
0:32
Nobody saw me doing the awkward chair, uh, upping. Probably shouldn't mention it when nobody saw it. It's funny. [laughs] It is.
0:40
Drew Dincic will join us, uh, hour number two today, uh, from the Deep Dive and NBC Sports Bet The Edge podcast talk. National Football League, how about some preseason talk? Do you have preseason fever? Let's do it.
0:52
I do. Uh, three weeks of preseason. Remember a couple years ago and, uh, for most of our lives, it was four weeks of preseason. Back in the day, and I'm talking 1970s, it was six weeks of preseason. Can you imagine that?
1:04
Interminable preseason. That's brutal. Six weeks it was back in, like, 1978. Uh, but it's three weeks. How, how do you even land on that number? Like, why, like...
1:14
Well, they played 14 regular season games back then too, right? So what they've done systematically is reduce the number of preseason games and increase the number of, of regular season games.
1:23
And by the way, I, I don't know that we're done with that. We may get down to two preseason and even more. Yeah, that's fine. 18 regular season at some point.
1:30
Although I'm not complaining about three weeks like I was w- with four. No, no, no, I'm not either.
1:36
Though, and we'll get to this 'cause Kelly and I finally wanna talk about preseason betting strategy, because we, we should sort of double back and not assume that everybody is n- is, you know, an, a, a grizzled veteran when it comes to the notion of betting NFL preseason.
1:51
Because, as you know, when you tell your friends, right, who are not necessarily big bettors but are sports fans, "Hey, uh, s- you know, some folks bet the preseason.
2:00
Maybe I even dabble in betting in the preseason," s- most people look at you, at least half of them if not most, look at you and are like, "Oh my God, that's the most degenerate thing I've ever- Yeah...
2:09
heard in my life." But truthfully, and we'll get into this, um, that ain't the case, and we'll explain why coming up. Mark Borchardt on Major League Baseball. Uh, where will McLaurin and Parsons play this season?
2:21
I may, uh, recuse myself from this segment because I object to the premise. I cannot believe that a couple of these books posted odds.
2:30
They posted odds and they're like, "The, the Commanders and Cowboys are not that big of favorites." Yeah, I think they're both playing there this year at their respective spots.
2:38
I was expecting it would be, like, minus 1,000 each on, on those two teams, and then, and then some other teams.
2:44
Those are those weird markets, though, where it takes, all it takes is one bet somewhere and it changes dramatically. Mm-hmm. We'll, we'll talk about those. Those are available.
2:51
Uh, and then Tyler Shoemaker a little later on, a VSiN contributor, talk some WNBA with us. How about Todd Wisniew on the WN- NBA yesterday? That was great. That was great.
2:59
Um- I made a Liberty bet over the weekend, like, to win it all. Really? Yeah. What number? Uh, plus 170. When Collier went down with that knee injury- Yeah, Nafessa Collier... it was just like...
3:10
I, I mean, I, I know Breanna Stewart's out right now for the Liberty, but I'm just, I'm kinda, I wanna be positioned with a ticket on them by the time we get into the playoffs when Stewart should be back.
3:20
By the way, that Nafessa Collier thing, so the Lynx beat the Aces by a WNBA record margin as a road team on Saturday. She got hurt when they were up 40. If that were the NBA- Oh, we would be losing our minds...
3:34
think of the NBA equivalent of that. We would be losing our minds. Like, late season- I mean, it's Nikola Jokic... if the Thunder was up, I, um, maybe- I mean, it's the MVP, right? Yeah, yeah.
3:45
So it's, it's, it's- If the Nuggets-... SGA- That's right... of, of, uh, being in a game when the Thunder are up 40 points. [laughs] We would go crazy. Yeah. It's a great point. Yeah.
3:54
There, there are people going nuts about this- Yes... but not, maybe not as many as [laughs] we should be. Well, 'cause it, 'cause it's the W, right? Yeah, yeah.
4:00
Um, speaking of Todd, I was watching, uh, baseball with Todd, uh, yesterday, and I have said this and w- I think I might have even said it yesterday when he was on.
4:06
By the way, th- uh, thank you again to Chris Felica and Todd Wisniew who were in studio with us yesterday. Um, I watch baseball with him while he's in town. I watch it every night, and we, we're betting in-game.
4:16
And, uh, I will say this again, some people, it's so, he is so good at college basketball, he's so good at the WNBA, and then you'll hit a sport where some people are so snakebit. Mm.
4:27
The greatest bet in sports is Todd Wisniew voicing a baseball thought. Like, "Boy, you know, I really think we sh- really think the Blue Jays are worth a look here," right? Right. Yeah. When it's, like, one to nothing.
4:38
Never bet it. Yeah. And then he does not bet it, right? So he fo- he follows it up with a thought that I should bet it, but then v- then does not actually pull the trigger.
4:47
That bet lifetime I think is a documented- [laughs]... five bajillion and five in one. [laughs] He's so bad. And yesterday was a case. We walked in, we had, uh, dinner at Nora's yesterday.
4:56
It was two to nothing Blue Jays. I bet the, uh, Blue Jays minus four in-game. Final score was, like, 15 to 1. He didn't bet it, of course. [laughs] So there was, that's just another example of it.
5:05
Uh, our August, our early August returns two undefeated teams, the Brewers and the Red Sox, both 4-0 here in the early going in the month of August as the Brewers just continue to, uh, steamroll teams.
5:18
Our Rangers are two and two after having played four games, Kelly, you talk about the most rollercoaster first four games you can have, um, they were up in the ninth. Also, let's go to August 1st against the Mariners.
5:30
They were up in the ninth by a run. Two run shot by JP Crawford kills the Rangers, puts the Rangers at O and one to begin the month of August. Rangers beat the Mariners in 11 in game number two August 2nd.
5:42
Um, Rangers lose by a run to the Mariners on Sunday when Jacob deGrom decided to throw up meatballs and give up three, three homers in that game. And then last night, the Rangers, you see this game against the Yankees.
5:57
Yeah. Uh, by the way, Chris Felica, speaking of Chris and Todd yesterday, Chris Felica came on the show a couple weeks ago and gave that Yankees to miss the playoffs, I think at, like, 10 or 11 to one.
6:07
Uh, this team can't win. They got swept by the Marlins, and then last night they're beating the Rangers by w- first of all, they were up three to nothing, Max Fried versus Corbin, right?
6:15
So this is a, this is a game they have to win, Fried versus Corbin. They're up three to nothing. They gak that lead, um, after, uh, Fried throws the ball into center field for the, uh, the go-ahead run by the Rangers.
6:27
Two-run shot by Giancarlo to put the Yankees up five to four. That holds 'til the ninth inning. And then Devin Williams, good God, um, up steps Joc Pederson.
6:37
Joc Pederson is hitting, I think if I, if memory serves, 156 on the season. Like, this is the, this is the proverbial- Oh, Joc... clearly the last year of his career kind of thing.
6:49
He jacks one off Devin Williams with one out in the ninth to tie it, and the Rangers win it on a three-run sho- a three-run shot by Young in the, uh, 10th to win it eight to five.
6:58
Devin Williams after the game, this is, but w- was worse than even the Yankees', uh, the ending was his quotes.
7:03
Devin Williams, uh, quote, "Things haven't been going well for a while, and I think everyone's well aware of that. I would say I'm trying my best.
7:11
Sometimes that leads to the opposite outcome that you're trying to achieve." He also, uh, said, um, "Yeah, I only threw one pitch that hurt me." Yep, it's kinda baseball-ish. Anyway, Brewers and Red Sox 4-0.
7:25
Phillies, D-Backs, Guardians, and Marlins all 3-1.
7:28
When I talk to Borchardt I'm gonna ask him the same question I asked of, of Paul Spora yesterday which is, which of these teams, you know, 'cause we're all so focused in on the trade deadline.
7:37
Oh, who are the winners and losers? Basically, who are the teams that w- you know, went for it, and which are the teams that sold?
7:42
But the real betting day by day thing is, which of these teams that you think have given up are the ones that are gonna come back and nip you every day betting wise? Not every day, but a lot of days.
7:54
Look at those standings. Diamondbacks, who were the first to just sell everybody off, uh, 3-1. Guardians, who have the, uh, Clase/Ortiz gambling probe issue, 3-1, and Shane Bieber is gone.
8:08
And then the Marlins, uh, with the loss yesterday, fall to 3-1 for the month of August. So that's, that's the thing.
8:13
Baseball is a, uh, is a quirky little sport like that, and so that's what, uh, that's what we have to deal with on a day-to-day baseball. Um- Just getting a notification coming down. Does look like Judge will go today.
8:24
Judge who is eligible for activation, and he will be going today. Yep. I would, I would assume DH as opposed to playing in the field. Yeah, they said that right away. Yeah. Right?
8:31
They were gonna start him back at DH, so yeah, look for that. And then I wanna ask you, because I know we got a couple tweets about this yesterday, and, uh, I've been thinking about it too.
8:41
So you've got the Rangers 2-2 in this month. If you're g- if you've got a book open like DraftKings that does the updated odds, would you still get i- involved on the Rangers at a very similar number? I would. Okay.
8:51
Uh, you got two against the Yankees, and you got three against the Phillies, and then it gets progressively easier from there.
8:56
Um, so I would, and tonight is again, uh, it's an Eovaldi start for the Rangers, so that's, that's one you gotta win. Um, but this should be a, uh, fantastic...
9:05
Another, uh, these monthly bets are fascinating again just f- because it keeps you locked in to baseball, not just from a betting standpoint, but also just keeps you engaged in the sport itself as we head towards, uh, the, the post-season and an interminable regular season.
9:20
But, uh, October will be here soon enough. Football and then October. God bless these odds makers, Gil.
9:26
Like, this is, like, we talked about it when we looked at b- uh, what was that, most, most wins, best record last, uh, last week. We were like, man, these shift so much on- Yeah... a daily basis.
9:36
I mean, now you talk about the monthly ones. It's like you win a game, and like you got short by a dollar. Like, it is [laughs] it's just wild.
9:42
By the way, adjusted odds for the month of August, Brewers plus 350, Phillies plus 450, and there are the Dodgers 701. That was another one, by the way, yesterday.
9:50
Todd goes, "Can I interest you in some Sonny Gray at plus money, plus 150 for the Cardinals? That sounds like something I might wanna bet." He didn't bet a Cardinals win. Of course. Yeah, D- Dodgers perfect example.
9:59
They were four to one yesterday, out to seven now. Yeah, I, I would even, even the awards markets are...
10:04
You know, everybody, we, we also, I think, just content wise, we can be guilty of that if you're not careful, right?
10:11
You, you can't be too reactionary just 'cause somebody hits two homers on one night, "Oh, I gotta bet this guy." Right. Right? You can't, you know. You just gotta look at the big picture on some of this stuff.
10:19
By the way, one tennis play before we, uh, dive into NFL pre-season strategy talk. Um, I have not, the, the men are in Toronto, the women are in Montreal, the Canadian Open. It is on the business end of this tournament.
10:31
And I really haven't really found anything bettable the last couple days, so apologies for that. But if it's, if it's not there, I'm not gonna play it. Um, we do have Madison Keys today, though.
10:42
Maddie Keys minus 135 versus Clara Tauson. You can get this about five cents better. I'm, I'm behind this one in terms of the line.
10:49
Clara Tauson is a, uh, Danish player who, um, when we used to have Dan Weston on the show years ago when he used to, uh- Dan... talk tennis. Remember my buddy Dan? What, uh...
10:59
I mean, I know he's doing hardcore cricket now, but like- Hardcore cricket... can we get him on the show to talk cricket? We could if you wanna talk cricket. We won't understand a word though, but we could do it.
11:06
I'll have to find someone to r- Byron Lindiquie I'll reach out to to- Okay... write us questions- Okay... to ask Dan. Okay. [laughs] Yes. Their South African will translate questions for us for the English- Okay...
11:19
for our English mate. Okay. I like this. Uh, anyway, Dan used to love Clara Tauson. Al- always expected big things of her. She beat Iga the other day. Iga's returned from, uh, from Wimbledon, uh, in the second round.
11:28
Oh, really? Yes, she is. Is that why this price is like this a little bit? Yes, so this, uh, people are saying maybe this is the tournament Clara Tauson finally, Clara Tauson, by the way, finally breaks through on.
11:37
But I got Maddie Keys, uh, with better numbers, and I got Maddie Keys at minus 135 today in Montreal, Kelly's favorite place on earth.
11:45
NFL pre-season strategy for the young and old next right here on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter?
12:08
Start with smarter insights right now. You can check out VSiN's College Football Betting Guide. It is out, out and about Greg Peterson's MLB Best Bets, and the Circa Friday Football Invitational Preview.
12:19
And later today, you can check out Wes Reynolds' FedEx St. Jude Championship preview, Zach Cohen's tennis best bets, and Steve Mackinnon's MLB analytics report.
12:27
Right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the Beastin' Pro articles. Just head to beastin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets at Beating The Book. Y'all are the best.
12:38
This is from, uh, Vinnie Boombots. He said, "Okay, this is some, uh, some serious blank." He said, "We need a Wish Nev Wednesday back." By the way, he said, "We need a Wish Nev Wednesday."
12:47
I don't know if you're aware of this, we used to have Wish Nev Wednesdays where Todd would spend an entire hour with me on the show on Wednesdays.
12:53
Uh, "If we've got to pass the hat to pay him or have Derek Stevens get him some free slot play, I have very little going for me. I need this. Make it happen." Thank you, Vinnie, appreciate it.
13:02
Oh, he goes on to say- [laughs] "... nobody on earth consumes more Gilly ice content than I do. The Gilber- versus Todd dynamic is five out of five stars, and we need more of it, all I'm saying."
13:12
I agree with you, Vinnie Boombots. Buddhist Man, uh, "Just getting around to, uh, yesterday's replay after a particularly fussy day with, uh, the child." Uh, he has a new gir- baby girl, by the way, Buddhist Man.
13:21
Yeah, yeah, I feel like we're get- Yeah... we're getting late night tweets from him now. Yeah. He says, "Tremendous show with two of the best in studio," talking about Felika and Todd yesterday.
13:27
He says, "Great job by Felika for eliminating the foul language, and Todd giving in-play and WNBA insights you won't hear anywhere else, literally." Absolutely.
13:37
And then, uh, this is from, [laughs] this, this might be a bridge too far on this one, everybody making this kind of joke.
13:42
This is from, uh, Yaakov Ellis, who says, "If Todd could do a handicap on the color of the next object thrown onto the court in the WNBA, that'd be great. Probably more of a Megapod segment now that I think about it."
13:53
Um, and then Joe C, having our buddy Joe C- Odds are out there Do you see the Joe C tweet about, uh, him having trouble with vaping, or what's the story? That's wild, man.
14:01
So he w- did, he got fined and then they rescinded the fine 'cause he was v- Was he vaping inside of his hotel room? Allegedly, I believe. Allegedly. Al- allegedly, I believe.
14:10
Yeah, he just to- he just said they have new sensors or something in the rooms, 'cause I was... He, he sent us something last night. I didn't see it till this morning. Yeah.
14:18
Um, but yeah, he got, he got dinged by The Venetian, I guess, for, uh, for, for [laughs] vaping in the room. It's like a $600 fine.
14:27
Uh, which, you know, you're not supposed to do, just like you're not supposed to smoke in non-smoking rooms. But, uh, you know, mari- marijuana's legal out here. People like to do that, Gil.
14:36
Um, and he said that, he said this morning there is a new sen- new type of air sensors in the room. I've never heard that before. He was surprised by the vaping rule. That was what shocked him.
14:45
Yeah, that's what I was surprised. And maybe- I was like, "How the hell did they find out?" And maybe that's actionable information for those out there. Maybe- It might be, yeah...
14:50
maybe folks did not know that you're not allowed to do that here.
14:52
Uh, okay, pre-season football, I wanna repeat what I said at the end of the last segment, which is, uh, listen, I know a lot of you will know this, but there are some folks who are new to betting and new-ish who, who may want, who, who may be sort of, uh, you know, given sort of a little bit of an education with this sort of thing.
15:09
Because a lot of people who are, again, maybe not the biggest bettors in the world but are sports fans, when you tell them that you think about betting pre-season or actually bet pre-season, or that your friends do, they think to themselves, "Oh my God, that sounds like the most degenerate thing ever."
15:23
But in fact, uh, edges in pre-season games are vastly superior to anything, uh, that you can get in the regular season.
15:32
And, and the reason for this, again, is because in the regular season, uh, motivation and player avail- uh, player availability is well known. Your ability to,
15:45
to figure out what those two things are, again, motivation and player availability in the pre-season, is really just an information race.
15:53
Uh, like so many things, like the NFL draft that we bet, like any draft that we bet, some betting is just a, a race for information.
16:00
Are you a better Googler or Twitter feeder than the sportsbook markets are in terms of what they do to produce lines? Uh, and how do you do that? Curate.
16:11
What, what's our, our buddy Matt Brown likes to say, "A perfectly curated Twitter feed of, of great beat reporters from NFL teams will go a long way towards you figuring out, uh, who is playing and for how long and what teams' motivations are in a three-game pre-season."
16:26
I finally decided this, uh, off-season though, Gil, I'm following too many beat writers. Yeah, well it's not curated well enough. That's right. You're right, you're right. I had to start clearing some out yesterday.
16:35
You gotta, you gotta hem your hedges, or whatever you call it. Because you can't, you can't... Th- this is the opposite. Like, you do need, I, I agree.
16:41
I o- I have lists for every sport that I bet, uh, I mean, NBA, NFL especially, where injury information's king. You gotta be on top of that. But, but you're right. You've gotta curate it well.
16:50
If you have too many follows, you can miss some of the important news that comes down from a specific team. That's right. That's absolutely right. Now, for instance, here's, here's an example of this, right?
16:57
'Cause particularly quarterback, right? You wanna know what the quarterback depth chart is, how long is the starter gonna play, if the starter's gonna play at all.
17:05
How long is the second-string, uh, quarterback gonna play? Uh, this is from Ian Rapoport.
17:10
Uh, Bengals coach Zach Taylor tells reporters that quarterback Joe Burrow and other big-name players will play several series on Thursday night, and more in game two against the Commanders.
17:19
New way of doing it with eyes on starting fast, 'cause remember, this is the rap, right? This is the rap on the Bengals. They start poorly.
17:27
Survivor players from last year know this particularly well, with the Bengals losing week one to the Patriots, losing week three to a Commanders team that nobody knew, uh, would be as great as they were with Jayden Daniels.
17:39
So the Bengals, and this is a well-known bit of information, they have sort of telegraphed the pass on this. We're gonna play Joe Burrow a lot more. We're gonna play starters a lot more.
17:47
So that's, that's a bit of information that's not gonna necessarily get you ahead of the lines. That's just confirmation of one. But there- Well, well, I will, I mean, this was a three-point game yesterday.
17:56
We're out to six and a half now. Okay, so what Ke- Six and a half So what Kelly is referring to, though, is these kinds of lines now maybe, so maybe I underplayed it. That might be an overreaction, but okay.
18:06
Pre- JVT and I were having this conversation yesterday. Yeah. Pre-season lines will move dramatically larger and quicker than will regular season odds, generally speaking.
18:17
So let me, let me just, let me put it in, in sort of q- let me quantify it for you. Steam, in other words, in preseason.
18:26
If you can get ahead of it, there's like an 1100 game sample size of preseason games that were studied. Uh, Drew Dinsick, who's coming on later, did a great job of this.
18:35
1100 preseason games, the most recent 1100 of these. If you get ahead of the steam on the ones that move dramatically, so we're talking about one point or more, if you get ahead of that, you hit it like a 65% ATS rate.
18:50
If you do not get ahead of the steam, Kelly, let's say you just don't enjoy this information race. Let's say you're just lazy- Mm-hmm...
18:57
and look at the line and you see, "Oh look, that one moved three points," do you know what you are playing them after the steam in this? So this 1100 game sample of preseason games, 447 of which moved one point or more.
19:11
Even if you don't get ahead of the steam, if you play it after the steam, do you know what your rate is ATS on these? What? 58%. Wow. That's how ridiculous preseason betting can be.
19:21
Well, and I get, I g- I, that, and that's why these numbers are still moving, then I guess off of the, the l- now I don't wanna say the littlest news. This one is, is kinda significant, but we've gotten a couple.
19:31
Like JV, JV and I were talking about this yesterday. I can't remember what team this is now, but we were like, "A game moves three points off of like, maybe, maybe news that you expected to hear." Yeah.
19:41
I don't know if I wanna say this is exactly what I expected to hear from Zach Taylor. I mean, not precisely. 'Cause, 'cause I think me and you are still concerned- Yeah... about this plan. Yeah.
19:47
Like Za- Zach Taylor, maybe dial it back a little bit. [laughs] Za- Zach, I don't know if you know this, but injury is a possibility as well. Yes. [laughs] Yes, probably should mention that. Like several series? Yeah.
19:55
I'm a little surprised by this. By the way, what I'm referring to here in terms of the movement and those numbers that I just quoted are based o- I'm talking about sides.
20:02
Now, when it comes to, and, and so that's the other thing. You'll hear a lot of people talking about, "Here are the best coaching ATS records in the preseason," and this makes for fascinating content, right?
20:11
We've talked about John Harbaugh for years. John Harbaugh cares deeply about preseason. The Ravens are 40 and 21 against the spread with him as the head coach.
20:20
Sean McDermott of the Bills, same thing, 17 and nine, almost exactly the same win percentage, um, with fewer games coached. Jim Harbaugh, uh, the newest of this bunch, is 11 and eight.
20:32
But then there's Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin, also old heads in terms of coaching, who have great preseason ATS records. So that makes for interesting content, but books know that stuff. Mm-hmm. Right?
20:44
That's baked in typically.
20:46
It's the information that is just coming out in a given preseason, that's the stuff that ideally you'd wanna get ahead of it, and as I just mentioned, even if you don't get ahead of it, sometimes you can just play it after the fact.
20:56
There is no other situation in sports betting where I would ever tell you, "Hey, it already moved. You still might wanna play it," right? It's just a preseason kind of thing.
21:05
Uh, ideally, though, once again, of course you wanna get ahead of it with an information race and being ahead of that. Now, when it comes to that, this is all, I'm referring to sides here.
21:12
When it comes to totals, you may have heard me talk about the three-team 10-point teasers. The totals in these games are so low often, right? A lot of them in the low 30s. You'll never see that in the regular season.
21:24
So for books that still offer the three-team 10-point teasers, the, the practice has always been, "Hey, knock those totals down to the low 20s, pick three of them, play over, and it's bingo bango." Books are adjusting.
21:39
The only one in Nevada that still o- offers it, Kelly, Caesars still offers the three-team 10-point teasers. They do? On totals, yes.
21:47
So when it comes to totals, that is still, if you can find those, that is still a way to play it, uh, beyond the, uh, the, uh, sides information I, uh, I was just talking about.
21:57
And the other thing, and this is, this is the thing, books adjust, right? For many years, I talked on presea- uh, at preseason football here when there were four weeks of preseason. Dr.
22:05
Bob had this unbelievable trend for week two of preseason that teams, it was very simple.
22:09
Teams that lost week one of preseason versus teams that had won week one in preseason, betting the team that lost the previous week, week one, into week two was a great bet.
22:20
But now that it's been reduced to three weeks, so usually sports books adjust and we lose the opportunity to make good bets on things, um, like those three-point, uh, those three-team 10-point teasers going away as the years go on.
22:33
This was just a legislative NFL move to reduce from four weeks of preseason to three, that that now goes away because back in the day when it was four weeks of preseason, every team could be counted on to, to have a pattern of play in terms of who they played.
22:47
Now that it's three weeks, every team plays it differently. By the way, Sean McVay, he never plays starters for the Rams, but the books already know that part. Anyway, Drew with specific examples coming up.
22:56
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on our numbers game, live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas.
23:10
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bedell alongside, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
23:14
By the way, I mentioned, uh, as, when we were talking about preseason football there, Kelly, that, uh, Drew will be coming up later, Drew Dinsick, 'cause he will have his preseason, uh, week one bets.
23:22
But just in terms of, um, some of those that have already moved, 'cause we're talking about getting ahead of the move is, is ideal, but even if you're behind the move, it's not the worst thing in the world.
23:32
Uh, Raiders, Raiders, uh, is a, is a, has been a move, right? The Raiders are now, um, in their game, they are now a favorite. They were a dog beforehand against the Seahawks.
23:45
They are a slight two and a half point dog, uh, two and a half point favorite now on the road at Seattle. They were a dog when this opened.
23:52
Um, the other one that has moved, the Bills opened up as a favorite against the Giants. The Giants are now a slight favorite. Bill's got no reason to play, uh, preseason football, right?
24:02
They're just trying to win a Super Bowl. Yeah. And then I believe the Panthers is also another one. Did they start out as a dog, or they were at least a slighter favorite in this one against the Browns.
24:11
By the way, the Browns, you hear this news? So we already know, we talked about this yesterday with their depth chart at quarterback. Yeah, two and a half to four, I think this is mainly that- Yeah...
24:19
this whole reason about- So it's, it, it's f- it's obviously Deshaun Watson, I guess you should start with Deshaun Watson. Achilles out for the year.
24:26
So it's Flacco, it's Pickett, who they got by trade with the Eagles, and obviously the two rookies, Dylan Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
24:33
And everyone besides Flacco, so besides Deshaun, of the remaining four, three of them have injuries. Flacco, the man who's a thousand years old, uh, he's the only healthy one.
24:42
Uh, Shedeur has a shoulder, and the other two have hamstrings, Pickett and Gabriel. So they signed Tyler Huntley, Snoop Huntley, in the fold to play some preseason football For the Browns.
24:53
Good pick Man, that is, uh, it's kinda sad when that's, uh, probably the only reason he's on the team. Like, it's literally, "Hey, we need you for a couple weeks to get through pre-season."
25:01
What do you think they told him and his agent? I, I kinda hope that. I kinda hope- [laughs]... 'cause like it's very obvious. They go, "Tyler, there's a shot you could start week one."
25:09
I mean, we, we've gone back and forth about, like, w- how are they gonna carry... Are they really gonna carry four quarterbacks into the season? Which I still- You can't... which I still don't believe they're going to.
25:20
No. Even though they c- the Browns camp keeps saying that they, there's a chance that they do that.
25:27
But I, I, it, it just kinda sucks 'cause you would like to use this pre-season time to figure out which one of the vets are you gonna hang onto, and which are you gonna get rid of. They playing for Arch next year?
25:36
Is that what they're doing? Maybe. Yeah, well, who knows? What if, what if Arch doesn't live up to the hype? He's never gonna live up to the hype.
25:43
Well, I've- It's very different than Bronny James, but, like, someone else asked me this the other day. Some of these kids are never gonna live up to the hype. The hype is too much.
25:50
Well, that's why I asked Futak the other day, on a scale from, you know, and Galilei to completely living up to the hype, what, where is Arch gonna be?
25:57
Because I, like, when we d- we were watching the Hall of Fame Game and, and DJ was out on the field, and you're just like, "Wow, still living off your reputation when you were 17." Yeah, it's wild. It's incredible.
26:08
Uh, let's talk some baseball. Mark Borchardt joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. You can follow him @basewinner on Twitter, basewinner.com.
26:15
He's also the host of a Bet US baseball show, which he does every morning except for this one, and then we're fortunate enough to have him on his day off. It's Mark Borchardt. How you doing, man? No, you know what?
26:26
I go double duty. I go on this show- Oh... and then I go right to, right to the MLB show on Bet US TV.
26:32
So yeah, I mean, it's, uh, so, but sometimes on my day off, like, you'll, you'll say, "Mark, I need you to do something. C- can you fly into Vegas, get me a sandwich, and bring it into the studio?"
26:41
[laughs] And I'm like, "No problem, Gil. Anything for you, brother." Anything. [laughs] It's really kind of you when you do that. I ask that so often. It's, it's really great of you to, to acquiesce. Yeah.
26:51
Uh, let me ask you this, uh, 'cause I asked this of Spor earlier in the week.
26:54
I wanna ask it of you 'cause for those of us who bet baseball on a daily basis, mainstream media's gonna focus on winners and losers of the trade deadline. That's always fascinating.
27:01
Whether it manifests or not as we think, who knows? I'm curious, and, and Spor's answer was the Orioles to this question. Which is the team that you think has packed it in, right? And we're seeing a lot of these.
27:15
D- your Diamondbacks, right? Three and one here to start off August. Um, the Giants [laughs] who took a series from the Mets.
27:23
Um, uh, the Guardians who just won't give up, and they are annoying me 'cause I have them under season win total for the season, uh, who are just pesky every night.
27:31
What's the team that everyone thinks is packing it in that is gonna just absolutely destroy our bets on a nightly basis, or not a nightly basis, but every so often here going down the stretch of the baseball season?
27:42
Who is the live team that you think is gonna annoy people? You know, the Diamondbacks still look pretty good. I, I'm with you on that. I think they're, like, 11th in, in, like, projected run differential.
27:54
Yeah, they're 11th. Point for, they're, they're on the, on the positive side, even with all the subtractions that they had, uh, they're still.45 runs above average.
28:03
You know, when you, when you subtract the runs scored minus the runs against them.
28:07
They still have, you know, Marte [laughs] and Corbin Carroll are top 10 hitters, and I don't think the pitching staff's as brutal as a lot of people think.
28:15
The starters particularly, and I think the relievers, you know, a- as bad as, as, as a team can be, there's always gonna be some fluctuation, uh, with that bullpen as far as peaks and valleys, and they've had their valleys, so maybe it's time for their peaks, Gil.
28:29
Maybe, [laughs] maybe it would be. Uh- They've had some valleys this year, that's for damn sure. That's for sure. But that's just- Yeah...
28:35
you know, some of these teams, it's amazing, or you just, you don't write 'em off 'cause it's still Major League Baseball and they didn't trade everybody, right? They're still real- Like-... players...
28:46
you know, on the other side, the team that's really been, for me, uh, at least from a betting standpoint, are, are the Nationals. I mean, they, they got smoked by the Brewers. I, it, are the Brewers this good of a team?
28:57
And I, I don't, I don't think they are. You know, what's interesting, Gil, the, uh, the MLB, not to my MLB show, but MLB Show the video game runs simulations, and they, they picked a simulation.
29:08
I, I'm sure they run thousands of them. They picked one simulation before the season, and it was the Brewers to win the World Series. Wow.
29:15
And everybody kinda like, talk about laughing and, and, and, and shaking your head, but it looks like it... Joey Ortiz was the MVP of the, of the World Series.
29:23
So, uh, I don't think that's gonna happen, but the, th- they've really kinda played, in my opinion, over their head, Gil.
29:29
So, so that's, so, so that may be b- the answer to the next question, which is which of the teams that are right now in playoff position or maybe atop their division, in the Brewers case, it's the best record in all of baseball.
29:40
Besides the Brewers, who's the most per your numbers fugazi at the top of baseball? You know, I, it's, it's, it's, it's interesting. I don't think the Dodgers are as good as everybody's saying they are.
29:54
Uh, I don't, you know, the, the, the Padres, they were at plus 750, uh, right after the trade deadline. I thought that was a steal.
30:02
Uh, I, I don't know, like, they've got, for me, they've got a 16% chance, the Padres do, to win that division.
30:08
Uh, but gosh, this, you know, this Dodgers team, you, you look at, at hitting stats, and, like, this is a plus 250 team to win the World Series, and they were, like, 20th i- in baseball when I looked at it yesterday, uh, in, in, like, weighted runs created plus over the last two months.
30:25
I think that's concerning if you're gonna put p- plus 250 on a team, Gil. Yeah. To win the World Series, that is, yeah. Well, and then the, yeah, that's the thing. I mean, the playoffs are a whole nother animal.
30:35
Even the best teams can falter in, in those series in, in the nature of baseball.
30:39
So right now, Dodgers plus 190 to win the pennant anyway, Phillies plus 350, and there are the Brewers, currently with the best record in baseball at five to one. Uh, Mets and Cubs and Padres all in single digits.
30:51
Everybody else distant from there, including teams like the Reds, who are, by the way, just a, you know, a stone's throw away from playoff position Who are 50 to one You know, one thing I wanted to say, and it's gonna be interesting to see if this, this continues, because they all, they both have seven starts.
31:05
It's Burns and Masarowski from Milwaukee, and those guys are top 10 pitchers based on their 10 starts. So if you look at, like, projections, steamer projections, that sort of thing, they're not.
31:17
They're, they're probably, you know, middle of the pack. But they've really performed well. So if they can continue that, th- that's gonna give both of those teams a, a huge upside.
31:25
But you, but you based on steamer unsustainable. I, I don't know.
31:30
You know, y- I, I, I used to think that, because the steamer ratings are, are probably the best, like, you know, for triple A guys coming up, and I've used them for years.
31:38
But these guys get so much exposure at such an early age. That Masarowski and, and Ben Burns, the... and, and even Lighter as he's coming around for the, for the Rangers, these guys look good.
31:49
So I, I don't know if maybe the traditional steamers that they've been doing for the last 15 years is gonna hold up. These guys look, these guys look like aces. They really do. But- And, uh, so it's hard to evaluate.
32:00
If you do, if you do a, an evaluation a certain way for a number of years, and then, and then, you know, it's not working anymore, uh, s- you gotta, like, kind of be a little bit flexible I think on that.
32:11
But that, those are two interesting guys, Burns and M- and Masarowski, to see if they can continue to do that. Thank you for wearing the Rangers shirt today, Mark. What did you land on today? Well, spe- uh, I know.
32:22
Speaking of the... good lead in, Gil. You're, you're, you're a consummate pro. But I- [laughs] I like the Rangers today. You know, it was an interesting game yesterday.
32:29
They, they walked Langford to get to Josh Jung, and he hits a, he hits a walk-off home run.
32:36
You know, I've never seen a guy do this, but I wanted to see the flashing four, because Aaron Boone, they, they, they panned to the dugout when Langford's up, and he's flashing the four, like intentionally walked the guy.
32:46
I wanted to see Jung hit the damn home run and then turn to the Yankee dugout and go like this. [laughs] For his teammate. But he's a better... you know, flash the four and- Yeah... but he's a better man than me.
32:55
And, uh, anyway, to- today I've got, uh, I've got it priced, uh, with Texas at more like one, minus 152. They're minus 122 in the market. I think that's pretty good value, Gil. Rangers, straight bet.
33:07
Uh, do you have a, anything else for us before you leave? Oh, of course. I've got the base winner parlay, Gil. You've got Boston and Seattle, two teams.
33:15
I think really, uh, Seattle made such a, such a, uh, upgrade with, with their trades. I think they won the trade deadline. If there's winners and losers, they were the winner.
33:25
And, uh, they got Brian Wu coming up, 21st, uh, base winner, uh, ranking out of 150. And then I'm gonna go with, uh, with Crochet over there. He's number four base winner number.
33:35
So Boston, Seattle, uh, it's, it's kind of a Chuck Woolery two and two, but it's a base winner one on one. You risk one to win one, Gil, on that one. All right. Rangers straight.
33:43
Boston, Seattle parlay from Mark Borchardt at Base Winner. Thank you, Mark. My pleasure, Gil. Coming back, where will Terry McLaurin and Micah Parsons play next, or will they stay?
33:54
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. I'm a survivor. I'm not gonna give up.
34:12
What's next, Kelly? What are the next lyrics? Uh, uh, uh, uh. [laughs] Circus Survivor, the quest for 14.2 million, will make its debut tonight right here on VSiN.
34:22
The 10-part documentary on the world's largest legal football contest follows contestants as they chase the $14.2 million prize.
34:30
Episodes start tonight through Saturday, and then resume next week, August 12th through the 16th. Watch episode one tonight, 9:00 PM Eastern on VSiN. For more, visit vsin.com/survivor.
34:43
Have you decided how many Survivor, uh, entries you're gonna have this year? Two. Two. And I'm not gonna stop. I'm gonna work harder. I'm a survivor. I said that in the documentary when they were filming.
34:53
I said that, and, um, I acted like they were, they, they was my own original thoughts, and I was like, "I just made that up."
34:58
And both of the documentarians from behind the camera just looked at me like, "What the hell is he on?" [laughs] Not used, on the cutting room floor. I was like, "I'm a survivor, I'm not gonna give up."
35:10
Um, can I give away one line which I thought was the funniest in this? Oh, that's great. [laughs] Both of, both of them were behind the camera. They're like, "What the hell is he talking about?"
35:18
[laughs] Um, Stormy- They got to be Kelly for a day. It's like, "What? All right." Stormy. [laughs] "Why is he talking weird to us?" [laughs] With, with all the, with all the, like, shortened words. I'm not gon' give up.
35:29
Right. [laughs] Yes. Gon' give up. Uh, [laughs] uh, Stormy is so great in this. She had a line. Can I give away one line from this, from this documentary? I think you're allowed to do that.
35:38
Uh, she, she said that her, uh, la- this is all last year's Survivor contest, by the way.
35:42
She said their, that her team name, her entry name, pardon me, her entry name was This Is The Year, meaning this is the year that she won. And she, [laughs] she said, she goes, "This, in fact, was not the year."
35:52
[laughs] She, she was awesome in it. Um, but Stormy is- Yeah, man...
35:55
Stormy Bonatony, uh, co-host of Money Moves, which follows us here on the network, she is prominently featured in the documentary, as is our own Tim Murray. Tim Murray prominently featured throughout.
36:06
And, uh, you know who is sort of the, uh, the narrative voice of this documentary is Matt Brown and Mike Somich from Ready Set Bet. Well, they do such a great job with- Yeah... the contest show. That's right.
36:18
Uh, they do a great job with the contest show, and they, and they sort of, you know, bring the stats along as the weeks go from week to week.
36:25
Remember last year, let's just, uh, let's just put this in contest, ti- context for people. Three weeks in last year, 98-plus percent of the entries were gone. Sucks. Three weeks in. You didn't make one passer, right?
36:41
Nope, sure didn't. Yeah, okay. I was, 'cause of Be- I had the Bengals. Yeah, me too. Bengals lost week one. Bengals lost week three. Um, I did...
36:49
listen, the average though, like the last three years in Survivor, I think like three, uh, two years ago, 70-plus percent were gone after three weeks. Yep. Or excuse me, three years ago that was it.
36:59
That- Two years ago, 60-plus percent were gone after three weeks, and then last year was the unprecedented 98%. But the point is, is that You can count on two-thirds being gone within three weeks. That's conservative.
37:13
But remember with last year when it was 98-plus percent, remember some of us, not me, but, but some folks were like, "Boy, I don't know. If you're out that quick, will people ever wanna play again?"
37:23
Hell yeah, they wanna play again, because you've had six months to stew on it. You're absolutely gonna play again. I think they get the 20 million this year.
37:30
Well, I always think that's a tough question, too, of like the, the are we too close to the sun sort of thing on this, 'cause it's like me and you still enjoyed talking about it all season long. [laughs] Oh.
37:38
Like, there really wasn't any lost intrigue for us on it. Oh, no. 20, 20 million I think is, is, is very doable for them this year. I think that's a commonly held belief.
37:47
And then in Grandissimo, which is the $100,000 [laughs] buy in at Circa, what is the over under on number of entries? I think they have eight already confirmed. Is that correct?
37:57
I, I still think 30 and a half is the over. 11. 11. 11 the board tells me out there. 11. Yes. That's the biggest... When, when PASPA was ruled unconstitutional- Right. 11, yeah...
38:06
when PASPA was ruled unconstitutional in 2018- Gotta get your eyes checked... you know what the, uh... You should be able to see the 11. Yeah, yeah.
38:12
[laughs] It's only [laughs] those are only- That kind of scared me [laughs]... those are only breadsticks. Someone needs a new prescription.
38:18
Um, but when PASPA was ruled unconstitutional in 2018, I think we take this for granted now, but I think the biggest thing that we were all surprised about was how many people just have disposable income for days. Mm.
38:31
So Grandissimo, I think it goes over 30 entries. 11 already. Yeah. What did I s- I thought, like, what was my number, 14 and a half, 15 and a half? I thought it was gonna be right around 15.
38:41
Looks like they're gonna do better than that. Oh, yeah. Wow, it's amazing. All right. Um, I don't wanna do this, but, uh, I'll do this.
38:47
Who will Terry McLaurin play his first snap for in the upcoming season, which begins on September 4th, Thursday night, uh, the whole regular season? Commanders, staying with the Washington Commanders, the taco holders.
39:00
Look at that logo. Minus 350. The next short shot here is the Patriots at five to one, and the Raiders at seven to one, everybody else 14 to one or longer.
39:12
Uh, I think he stays with, uh, with the Skins, with the Commanders. I think they work it out again.
39:18
Terry McLaurin is going to be 30 years old on September 15th, so just a couple weeks into the season, couple games into the season, and he wants to be paid, uh, in a manner as if he's not 30 years old, 'cause he doesn't have as much wear and tear on his body, uh, only played two years really legit at Ohio State, and then, what is this, his sixth or seventh year in the National Football League.
39:41
So he, he feels like he has a younger body than that, uh, whereas Washington, at least thus far, is sort of treating it as, yeah, but you're gonna be 30 years old September 15th.
39:51
Now, the only problem with that [laughs] logic for the team is, um, 'cause I understand both sides. I do. I've said this from the beginning.
39:57
The only logical problem, though, the, in terms, the only problem with the logic from the team is when you guys, meaning the Commanders, when this franchise stunk for as many years as it did, Terry McLaurin was the only great thing that they had.
40:10
Maybe pay the guy. He's a, the great face of the franchise. But, um, and then there's the other thing, which what do we say all the time? You can only win a Super Bowl in two ways, right?
40:19
If you have a Hall of Fame quarterback, or if you have a rookie, or if you have a quarterback who over-performs on a rookie deal, and then what can you do? You can pay everybody else.
40:30
So there's that in terms of the pro McLaurin argument. Yeah, they out there paying everybody else except for Terry McLaurin. Yeah.
40:38
Wide receiver market is such, right, where it's McLaurin wants north of 30 million by all, uh, standards. He wants, you know, more than Metcalf, for instance.
40:48
I don't think he's asking for as much as, uh, Jefferson and Chase, but he wants Metcalf, Aiyuk kind of money, and I'm not sure what the Commanders are offering.
40:56
We don't know the exact numbers, but the consensus opinion is that it's like a $5 million difference, which is a lot- Yeah... you know, when you compound it over [laughs] several years.
41:06
Anyway, I think he stays with the Commanders, 'cause I think they can work out something. Listen, most of these holdouts now in today's NFL, hold ins, because you can't recoup those fines anymore.
41:16
Used to be back in the day, "Oh, we fine him $50,000 a day," but then they give it back to him at the end. Can't do that anymore.
41:21
I think the Commanders work out a deal where it's, you know, just a few years with incentive, an incentive-laden deal, and I think they work it out. So to me, I wouldn't bet anything but the Commanders here.
41:30
First of all, shout out to, uh, Bet365. It does not get prominently featured on this show very often, but- Oh, is that where this is?... they had the odds up.
41:37
Yeah, yeah, DraftKings has had these up, but, uh, Bet365- How dare you put this up, Bet365... [laughs] that, that's where I got them from, and I, I, I was talking to Zach about this yesterday.
41:47
He said they g- they had great tennis, uh, odds up there all the time. Yeah.
41:50
And, and I know they are one of the few, if not the only ones, in the States that offer each way betting on golf, which, uh, just, just a shout out. I would check that out if you're in a Bet365 state.
42:01
Um, anyways, so yesterday I sat here and I said, said to you I thought this whole the McLaurin, Hendrickson, Micah Parsons stuff, a week and a half ago, no way this is all gonna get done.
42:13
Okay, this has gotten kind of ugly with what, all three of them, and like I'm not nearly as sure. I still don't. Minus 350? We're talking about implied odds of 70, a little over 77%.
42:25
I think there's a much better chance of, of him returning to the Commanders than that. I do, too. And like, I mean, I think this is a bettable number. It's, I, I think Micah Parsons is a bettable number.
42:34
Minus 300 for him to return to the Cowboys. Only a 75% chance that we think he returns to the Cowboys? Yeah, but the problem is- As ugly as this has gotten, I think it's, we're way over that...
42:43
but that's what the issue is with these markets, right? Like, they're, they are so not reflective of reality, right? They're not, they're not a, uh, calibrated market. All it takes is a small bet to move it.
42:54
So the notion that these are accurate reflections of reality is probably a fallacy. Sure. Yeah. But then I think there's still value in betting that number. No, correct. Yeah. That's what I'm saying.
43:04
Um, yeah, I think they're way short. I mean, look, I think the other, the o- or I don't think they're short enough. Um, when we talk about these other teams, I, [laughs]
43:14
it, it's tough to talk about these other teams because of how good Terry McLaurin and Micah Parsons are. You're like, "Hey, could you use a top 10 wide receiver in the league?
43:21
Can I interest you in one of the best pass rushers in the league? Who's interested?" By the way- Everybody... can you imagine if the Cowboys, hypothetical sports talk radio nonsense question I'm about to ask.
43:30
You ready for this nonsense question?
43:31
If the Cowboys and, and Commanders got on the phone with each other and say, "Hey, I'll trade you Terry McLaurin for Micah Parsons right now," by the way, me, the greatest Terry McLaurin fan in history, who would hate to see him not play for Washington, I'd be like, "Make the trade now."
43:45
Yeah, you'd ship his ass out in a second. It's not even close. [laughs] I mean, like, this is... W- I mean, who's interested in Micah Parsons? 31- Can I, can I interest you in Micah Parsons?...
43:53
31 teams would have a trade proposal into the Cowboys. [laughs] What else do you want for Micah? That's what I would say. Uh, I think they're all staying. At least these hold ins usually end up that way.
44:03
It's a lot of content that is filled with the talk of this, but usually the team and the player can work it out.
44:09
And the honesty, the honest truth is, because truth is usually honest, um, that's redundant is what I'm trying to say. [laughs] Is that, you know, Terry doesn't have a lot of leverage here. He really doesn't. Yeah, yeah.
44:21
He doesn't have a lot of leverage. Is he gonna hold out, uh, not play this season? No. Why would he do that? It's the middle of his career. That would just ruin it. So he'll play. He'll play for Washington.
44:29
S- I have, I have no idea how much they're taking on these, Gil. I'm sure it's not a ton. No. I wouldn't wanna bet a ton anyways, but I would bet both the Commanders and, and Cowboys in these markets. I like it.
44:39
All right, Drew Dincic, what he's betting week one pre-season, his NFL thoughts beyond that as well. It's The Numbers Game at Vsins, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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