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Aug 5, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 5, 2026 | Hour 1
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45:10
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] August the 5th.
0:12
Be with you on a Wednesday morning. Welcome on in to a Numbers Game. I'm Dustin Swedelson. He's Kelly Bidlin. The bearded brothers reunited for a few more days here- Yeah... on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:26
We got a fun one lined up for you today. We got plenty more to do as far as college football is concerned. The VSiN College Football Betting Guide is out. We are highlighting some of our favorite entries into that thing.
0:37
And the new coaches, I think it's very important to be up to date on that. We will examine some of the better hires out there. I have two total plays on two new head coaches, and there's one I'm looking to add.
0:48
I'll run it by Kelly a little bit later on- Love it... in the program. Some usual suspects that you're used to seeing on the program joining us today. In about an hour, Will Hill, in studio.
1:00
VSiN betting analyst in town hanging out with us. We'll do a little baseball, we'll do a little football with Will as his New York Yankees with a fun one last night. Will- Nick Whalen drops by. Yep.
1:11
You think Will's, uh, gonna be in okay shape? Started bet bash last night. I don't know how, uh, rowdy he got. I feel like Will Hill's a veteran of the game.
1:18
I feel, feel like he knows to pace himself at this point in his career and his life. Although, you do get nervous. When people come to town- From Connecticut, away from their family...
1:27
away from their children Away from, away from their 17 kids and dogs. Yeah. He's got a lot going on there. [laughs] There's always the concern that you maybe get a little too loose too, a little too early.
1:36
Uh, speaking of that, too loose, too early, Nick Whalen joins us- Yeah, love VSiN... uh, 11:45 AM Eastern Time.
1:41
And then Paul Spohor will break down baseball with him coming up in a couple hours, 12:15 A, uh, P Eastern Time. That always throws me off, the AM/PM. Yeah, I know, right? I'm not gonna lie.
1:49
Uh, but we begin, Kelly Bidlin, because you and I were talking about this on Monday, and, uh, I saw the social media re- media reaction when you and I were also hanging out over the weekend.
1:59
When the Dodgers acquired Tarik Skubal- Mm-hmm... they ruined baseball. They're gonna win the World Series. Why are we even playing the games? Unstoppable.
2:07
Yeah, well, since that happened they've lost five games, so, um, or, or they're on a five game losing streak I should say. They've s- I guess that'd be a four game losing streak since then, right?
2:14
Right, so- No, no, it might be five. It's Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, We- so okay, never mind. Four, four. Yeah, four. Yeah, four. Four. Either way, they lose last night, in case you missed it, 5-1 to the Cubbies.
2:24
How about Chicago? By the way, the Cubs, who I took a little, little bit on at 20 to 1 to win the World Series after the trade deadline, they're still 17 to 1 on the market. This is the team.
2:34
I know VSiN put out, uh, my list from Monday before the trade deadline of teams that can beat the Dodgers. The Cubs were not there 'cause I didn't trust the pitching.
2:42
But since then, they've added Kevin Gausman, they've added Clay Holmes. I believe in the Cubs. I believe in this Cubs offense. Well, need to re-edit an Instagram reel. Yeah.
2:50
Well, can we go back retroactively and fix that thing? [laughs] 5-1 the score last night. They blow up Tarik Skubal's debut. Skubal was fine. He goes six innings, two earned, uh, six strikeouts and 85 pitches.
3:02
We cashed the under- Boom. There you go... on the seven and a half Ks there. It was a little bit plus money. Swanson homered, Nico Hoerner goes yard.
3:10
Kyle Tucker's starting to heat up for the Dodgers, in fairness, on the other side. But the Dodgers have lost five in a row, and don't look now, the mighty Dodgers at Wrigley Field trying to avoid a sweep are plus money.
3:22
The Cubs are favored to sweep the Dodgers on the heels of the Red Sox sweeping the Dodgers. Hold on, people. What happened here, baby?
3:30
You told me the Dodgers were inevitable, and now all of a sudden they look pretty mortal.
3:35
I'd also add into the mix is that the Dodgers haven't had pitches thrown by Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow in months, and you're all just factoring them being a part of the playoff rotation.
3:47
We're gonna have Robleski, we're gonna have Lauer going tonight. It's not the, a sure thing that they're gonna get those guys back.
3:52
And if they're back, if they're not gonna get injured again, 'cause those are two guys routinely over their careers who are always hurt year in and year out.
4:00
Dave Roberts reflected on the loss of Tarik Skubal's debut after the game last night. Uh, it's, uh, I don't know the answer of what's gotta give, but we gotta find a way to, to win a ballgame.
4:11
Um, you know, I thought tonight Tarik was, Tarik was fine. Um, a lot of emotion, adrenaline, and, um, it was, uh, you know, he limited the damage. Um, you know, I, I, I got...
4:27
You know, they scored that extra run on the, uh, infield hit by Hoerner and, um, you know, put us in a position to win the game. And, uh, you know, there's probably, probably a little bit more in there for sure.
4:38
Um, but I'm not gonna push him every time out. Um, we have a lot of baseball left to play.
4:44
Um, he's a guy that we're all counting on, so I think that I'm gonna, I'm gonna manage, you know, and pick my spots, um, with him. And, you know, you still gotta score. That is a huge statement.
4:55
If you bet player props, i- if you are looking to bet the Dodgers and Tarik Skubal starts, 85 pitches. Mm-hmm. Dave Roberts just said he doesn't really wanna push him more than that because he needs him for the playoffs.
5:05
Yep. Because everything I just said. Glasnow and Snell are not there. They gave up assets to bring him over to put them over the top, but they also really need him to be the front line of this rotation.
5:15
And if Sc- Skubal's not going deep into games, here's another problem for the Dodgers right now. Over the last month, they have the fifth worst bullpen ERA. 5.16. So that is an issue for them.
5:28
They're not getting offensive production out of the catcher spot. Dalting Rush- Dalton Rushing is dealing with an injury now. So the Dodgers, who I agree, that's the best team in baseball.
5:39
Do they warrant being the price they are at the top of the betting board to win the World Series? Abso-freaking-lutely. Uh, should you bet them? No. It's baseball, Susan. Anything can happen in a series.
5:50
And while this may be the best version, the most talented version we've seen of the Dodgers yet, I think there's plenty of teams that can punch up and give them their best shot, and we're seeing it with the Cubs right now.
5:59
Uh, first of all, would've been awesome if Dave Roberts just came out and, and killed Skubal for it. Say, "Oh, it was all in the starting pitcher performance."
6:05
"No, you know, we, we needed another inning out of him-" [laughs] "... and we just, he couldn't give it to us." Yeah, no, [laughs] like I'm not sure about this signing. I don't know what we did.
6:13
The, uh- But if you're betting like outs recorded, you're betting strikeouts, keep in mind Dave Roberts says- It's a great call... he doesn't wanna push him. Yep, i- that's a great call.
6:20
I think the other, the other part of that to me is you brought, you brought up the bullpen.
6:23
Okay, if we're not pushing the, if we're not pushing these starters and we're getting to a bad bullpen sooner, then look at some overs, look at some team total overs as well. Uh, and come on, come on, Dustin.
6:33
This is like, it's like cheating on a test in middle school or high school, right? You gotta like, you gotta throw away a couple games if you're gonna follow the script. You know what? I was thinking that too.
6:41
The Dodgers follow in the script, you gotta lose a few games before you dominate everybody, man. I was thinking that too.
6:45
[laughs] It's like when you get in trouble as a kid, and then you come back the next day, you're really good, you make people feel good about- Mm... and then you go back to being bad again.
6:52
You gotta throw them off the scent. You gotta throw a, gotta throw a few duds on that Scantron before you, uh, nail the rest of it.
6:57
Hey, I, I, I think there's somewhat, this is somewhat real, man, what's going on with the Dodgers right now. They, now they did it a year ago. Let's also remember that. They scuffled down the stretch.
7:06
They did not have a bye to begin the post-season. They still won the World Series, but it wasn't as easy as, as it kind of feels like in retrospect. They went seven with, with the Blue Jays to win the World Series.
7:17
I, I'm not saying they're vulnerable, I'm just saying at the price, it...
7:22
Because the Dodgers are so short, that affords you the possibilities of finding some bigger numbers on other teams if you think that they can hang and have a puncher's chance. It is the Numbers Game.
7:33
I'm Dustin Swedelson, that's Kelly Bidlin. And last night we had a debut in the Bronx as the Yankees beat the Cardinals two to nothing.
7:41
The rookie, George Lombard Jr., if you watched this game, the kid looked ready for the moment. Double play to get things going early. First at bat, home run for him.
7:53
He then set up another double play where he fielded it up the middle, took it to second himself and threw it to first.
7:58
And George Lombard Jr.'s debut, it is a, a, a sign of positivity for the New York Yankees, who've been dealing with a lot since Aaron Judge hit the shelf a, a, a few months ago. Lombard, to me, looked ready.
8:10
That was the thing that jumped out to me. The, the way, uh, he was so calm at the plate, the swing was absolutely fluid. He locked in on the pitch he wanted.
8:18
And then at shortstop, he was so composed out there for a kid making his debut in the Bronx. Yankee prospects can often get over-hyped.
8:27
Yankee prospects, and I'm s- you're, you're, you're listening to the voice of someone who, I wanna say it was 2004, got tickets the day of to go to the Bronx to watch the career debut of Melky Cabrera, thinking he was going to be one of the next great Yankee center fielders.
8:44
[laughs] Okay? To let you know of the hype and the past of Yankees prospects. George Lombard Jr., though, he is a legacy. His father played in the bigs. He is a huge prospect.
8:55
And watching him play just one game, I'm already wondering how has Anthony Volpe been allowed to run out there for the last couple months, 'cause that is an absolute disgrace.
9:03
This kid was ready, especially if you look at the numbers. Now he's, he's jumped from double A to triple A,.284 over the two levels, 12 homers, 14 steals, 33 RBIs, 65 runs scored. I think George Lombard Jr.
9:18
is gonna help kinda mitigate the issues that they're seeing offensively without Aaron Judge in the lineup. It's a lot of pressure on a kid, but I like the spark that he added last night.
9:27
Yeah, what, what an awesome, awesome night, awesome story for the Lombard family last night, right?
9:31
You get two, two, the two brothers making their debuts, one in single A, one in the majors, and home runs for both of them. That was pretty cool. Like an hour apart too. Yeah.
9:40
Yeah, I mean, it doesn't get better than that if you're a parent, your, your, your kids are going off like that. [laughs] I mean, that, that is the dream. No, seriously, it's great, yeah.
9:44
I'll tell you this, my parents never experienced that. [laughs] Uh, certainly not at that level. Let's hear from George Lombard Jr. re- reacting to his debut there in the Bronx.
9:53
What was your feeling just running the bases there after you hit the home run? What was going through your mind? S- I mean, excitement. Uh, I don't...
10:03
Still kind of all processing but, um, yeah, it was, it was really cool.
10:07
And then, like, also at, like I said, being a close game and, you know, it was a big run, so, uh, yeah, this, this is, uh, probably, uh, a moment, a swing, a, a day I won't forget forever. He's a child.
10:18
He- He's a child... yeah, yeah. He turns 17. [laughs] I mean, he wasn't 17 that long ago, dude.
10:23
I mean, but like big shortstop, 21 years old, looks the part defensively, and then offensively, if he's gonna provide the pop like that, that, that is awesome for this team as they're awaiting the return of Bellinger, they're awaiting the return of Aaron Judge.
10:36
So that's where we stand with that. Nice win for the Yankees in the debut of George Lombard Jr. By the way, the Red Sox, they crushed the White Sox 14 to two last night. [laughs] They can't stop winning baseball games.
10:45
Uh, 29 and five since June 25th. A- that's incredible. And then on top of everything going on, let's do a quick update on most wins of the month of August. Gills bet Detroit, they're three and O.
10:58
They beat Seattle eight-nothing last night behind Troy Melton. Seven shutout innings, three hits, four strikeouts.
11:04
You also have the Phillies moving to four and O in August with a five-nothing win over the Washington Nationals. Luzardo, eight shutout innings and seven strikeouts.
11:12
And the Astros, my bet at 28 to one, three and one in the month of August thus far- Ooh... with a seven-two win over the Toronto Blue Jays. So that's where we stand with the baseball.
11:22
We'll do more on the card coming up for later on today. Few more player props that jump out to me. I'm backing a team to end a losing streak.
11:30
We'll tell you who that is later on in the show, plus discussion on the MVP, a number that you feel like should be a little bit longer, but I'm gonna have FOMO if I don't bet it and miss out on this guy.
11:41
All of that coming up throughout the program. When we return though, the NFL, this is a big loss for a team that a lot of people are hyping up. [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge.
11:53
That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you.
12:02
VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use. No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets.
12:09
Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:30
Back on a numbers game, Dustin Sweetelson filling in for Gil Alexander today, tomorrow, Friday, and then the summer of Swede comes to an end here. My tour is over. Yeah, it, it's, uh, it's been a great tour.
12:43
Everybody's enjoyed it. I think you're gonna, uh, be happy getting, uh, your show back, buddy. My, my watch has ended to, to- It was your watch- You've, you've never watched Game of Thrones, have you? I have.
12:51
Yeah, yeah, yeah. You have? Oh, I didn't know you were a Game of Thrones guy. I got that reference.
12:53
We were, uh, weren't, weren't we talking about this at dinner on Saturday night or was that just m- Oh, no, we were with Samich and me... No, we're talk- we're talking about movies, you and me.
13:00
We were, well, Samich and I were talking about House of Dragon- Which I, by the way, I'm, I'm-... two, two dragons, uh, dragon, uh- Okay, I'm glad you brought this up. I'm trying to watch season two still. Mm-hmm.
13:10
I think the show stinks. So that's what I told Samich at for eight s- I, I think it stinks... eight- but here's the thing. Like Game of Thrones, and this, this bothers me, it annoys me to even say this- It's slow...
13:20
it's slow but it gets better- No... and it gets faster. I don't, I, honestly I... You know what it is? It feels like a sterilized version o- of Game of Thrones. Like, it's almost too clean cut. It doesn't feel...
13:31
There's dragons so it's weird for me to say this. Well, yeah. It doesn't feel as real. Yeah, yeah.
13:35
Like, it feels like they cleaned it up a little bit too much, and I kind of like the nitty-gritty of, of, of the way Game of Thrones looked, especially early on where it felt very medieval.
13:44
There's just something about- No, I hear you there... House of the Dragon that feels just a little too, I don't know, cartoony, cookie cutter-ish. That's a, that's a fair p- I think that's a good point, actually.
13:52
I know e- I know exactly what you mean a- and by season three they are fully leaning into just dragons and war. Yeah, okay. It's just dragons. So, you know, if you want that.
14:00
But no, the bigger one, the bigger entertainment takeaway from that dinner, I, I have thought about this multiple times. Oh, we all agreed o- on the movies? That you, myself, and Mike Samich have all seen
14:12
Project Hail Mary- Yep... and The Odyssey. And we b- we all agree. All three of us said Project Hail Mary was pro- was a better movie. It, it's not even a conversation. The O- look, The Odyssey- The Odyssey's great.
14:23
The Odyssey's great. Wait, we have to tie, we, we- Project Hail Mary is a b- I, I think it was a better movie. The crew was laughing about, at me about this for like a, for like a month, man.
14:32
It's Ryan Gosling, it's Interstellar, and it's E.T. combined, man. The, him and that rock, it's true emotion. Yeah, well it's, it's Martian with a friend. That's Martian with a friend. There you go. Okay.
14:42
In prediction markets, The Odyssey is a 50% chance to win best picture. It's gonna win best picture, not because it's the best movie. It's the best spectacle. Right, right. Right? It's the sh- it's the theater of it.
14:52
It's the shots that you're seeing. It's the way that it m- they make you feel like you're along for the ride with Odysseus. Let's also be clear, it's not like they wrote this script any time soon.
15:01
[laughs] Like, this is a 2,700 year- 2,700-year-old script. I think that should play a pretty big role into who wins best picture- [laughs]... the script part of the conversation.
15:10
I k- I kept making jokes leading up to it. I was like, "This is, this is a true story, right?" No, my- "This is based on a true story" [laughs]...
15:15
my, my favorite, when I was doing Follow the Money the week it came out, Pauly Howard wouldn't shut up about it so I went and saw it. Yeah.
15:21
Someone was like, "Pauly's gonna ruin it with spoilers so you have to go see it." [laughs] I was like, "Spoilers? I read it in like ninth grade. What do you mean spoilers? It's been around for thousands of years."
15:30
[laughs] The, we all... I, I said this and I was so happy you guys agreed 'cause I thought I was taking crazy pills. The Odyssey was awesome. I f- I went along for the ride, it was three hours, it was tremendous. Yep.
15:39
It was really re- it was really cool. The, I had a couple problems like they say the word stuff, which definitely didn't exist back then.
15:45
[laughs] There, and like I can get past some of the other, like, holes in the, in, in, in the way that they framed everything, but at the end of the movie,
15:54
at watching that and then watching, um, Project Hail Mary- You did the same thing I did... where I watched it- [laughs]... on my phone on a plane, and I was crying in public. Yeah, yeah.
16:05
I just wanna point, like the way that movie made me feel versus the way The Odyssey made me feel, it's not even a conversation. I, I c- I completely agree.
16:11
It's- I, I did think back multiple times after that dinner though. I was like, man, Dustin, Mike, and me all said the same thing. We saw both of those and we all felt that- And we're in the minority. Yeah, right, yeah.
16:21
Uh- Well, let's see. Best- We're bound to get some tweets about it... what about best screenpro- s- screenplay if I can speak? Oh, that's a good call.
16:27
Because- Yeah, you would think The Odyssey is, is not- Well, well I mean-... up for something. You would hope- Come on, come on... you would hope not. Come on. Wild Horse Nine looks like it...
16:35
It's a very small market, though. Really little. There's only $46,000 in volume here. Okay. Uh, Obsession's pretty high. I heard Obsession is great. Oh my God, I've seen that movie too.
16:44
No, I, I, I thought it was terrible. Oh, really? I, I, I don't know. I st- I stopped it halfway through. By the way, I don't see, I don't see Project Hail Mary available. What do we do? It's a perfect movie.
16:54
It's perfect. It's very good. I'm with you. All right. It's very good. Danny put a, a tweet on the screen. I think he means it's time to move on. [laughs] I think that's what that means. Good job, Danny.
17:01
We have football this week. Hey, no more movie breakdowns. We'll have football this week. Don't worry, we are a little bit over what, 30 hour, 30 something hours away. I don't have the countdown clock- Sure, yeah...
17:10
in front of me. Cardinals taking on the Panthers. God, can you imagine if that was a Super Bowl preview? Good jersey matchup. I like the contrast in colors.
17:19
But if you go to vsin.com, Steve Macaden, he's the numbers guy, he has some really good trends for the Hall of Fame game. As news has now come out, we know who the starters are gonna be.
17:28
Kenny Pickett takes on Carson Beck, and, uh, we are looking at Dave Canales entering his third preseason. One and five straight up, O and six against the spread [laughs] is Dave Canales in the preseason.
17:41
Which that actually surprises me because m- my, my initial thought is a lot of these guys, just their personalities show in how they perform in the preseason.
17:50
The guys who are hardos, who are turned all the way up, who wanna prove, you know, how smart they are, they tend to do better in the preseason.
17:57
Just like that's my thought coming in, but that is not the case for this game coming up on Thursday. Uh, this is the highest posted total we have since 2012 at 36 and a half.
18:08
And, uh, right now it's Carolina minus one and a half. Ooh, it's dropped down the total. 35 and a half actually. But Carolina's a minus one and a half point favorite.
18:16
Underdogs are on a seven and four straight up run, eight two and one against the spread since 2013. The over's on a four and O run after going seven and two to the under previously.
18:25
And posted totals of 34 or higher, the under is 6 and 1 in those games. This is the first time ever that the Panthers are playing in the Hall of Fame Game. The Cardinals played in 2012, Kelly, and in 2017.
18:38
They're 0-1-1 against the spread. Cardinals-Saints in 2012, it went over, uh, in that game in 2012, I believe. Although my notes say 17 and 10, so ignore that one. [laughs] Okay.
18:51
There's no way the total was 26 and a half, right? Well, well, no, you know what? Back then it probably was. Oh, man, who knows? Who knows? No, back then it probably was. Hall of Fame games. Trying to think.
19:02
Okay, why do I... I'm missing results for the past two years. Um, yeah, the over, the overrun is a little interesting. I kinda get it, though. It was seven and two before that, though. Yeah. To the under? Yeah. Yeah.
19:14
And then it went four and oh the last four years. I don't- I, I, see, I've, every year when we get to this game, I, I, I don't, I never bet the Hall of Fame game. But these, this total is always so low.
19:25
It's like, man, I, it's... E- even when you wanna talk about these offenses not having everything together, not, uh, everybody not being completely on the same page yet, sometimes that works the other way, right?
19:35
You have an interception, turnovers, leads to points, leads to short fields for the other team. It, it would be a lean to the over at 35, and this is gonna keep dropping probably. Um, that would be the only look for me.
19:47
Are we- I don't know how you go on a side here. I see, I, I, I kinda wanna go under here. I, I j- they announced the starters. Yep. And I like, I get it. Kenny Pickett, he has experience. He was a starter.
19:57
He was a first-round pick. Carson Beck, he's a young guy trying to prove himself. He's played in big games in college. But just 'cause they're starting doesn't mean they're playing the bulk of the game.
20:05
Doesn't mean they're playing all of the game. And if you look at Arizona, they'll probably throw Kedon Slovis out there to finish things off. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
20:12
On the other side, for Carolina, I think you're gonna get a lot of Haynes King. I, I don't think Dave Canales wants Kenny Pickett to get injured.
20:20
I, I think Dave Canales, and this is my conspiracy, I have no reason to believe this, but I think Dave Canales doesn't necessarily wanna, like, latch on to Bryce Young and have his career tied to what Bryce Young can and can't do in the NFL.
20:32
And Kenny Pickett is a huge insurance policy. Say whatever you want about Pickett, but is it that big of a drop-off from Bryce Young to Kenny Pickett if you make that move? No.
20:42
Uh, no, not at all, if it, if it is a drop-off. A- and no, I think you're, I think you're right. I would expect we see a lot of Haynes King this pre- this preseason because, uh, yeah, yeah... I don't know.
20:53
I think, I, I don't know exactly about what you're saying, Dustin, but I think he has to take the approach of if he know, he knows they're a division winner.
21:01
They're no division winning football team, and if he thinks about Bryce Young any w- a- any way similar that we think about him, then he knows he has to keep that insurance policy healthy- Yes... throughout the season.
21:09
That's what I'm saying. Yeah. And I don't know who's fourth, fifth on the depth chart right now vying for jobs. It's guys that you probably have never heard of before. Also, Haynes King, what does he do best?
21:18
He is a running quarterback. He is not going to throw the ball as much. All that leads me to believe that the under would be the way to look here.
21:24
That, that's where I'm leaning right now, and it has moved on the under, down from 36 to 35, 36 and a half to 35 and a half. So, I do think that tracks here.
21:34
And as I mentioned, totals of 34 or higher, six and one to the under run right now in the preseason. I think, I'm wondering how many player props we'll have available for this game.
21:43
I, I, I think those, there's only three quarterbacks on the r- on the roster right now. Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, uh, and Haynes King.
21:49
Yeah, but then there's the, like, the, it's the people trying out the non-roster invitee types that you're, you're gonna find out in the moment that they're on the team. Yeah, you might be right.
21:56
It might be something to monitor, but I, I, I, I have a feeling you're right. We're gonna see Kenny Pickett get the start. He might go, like, a quarter or some- Maybe a half tops... quarter of an, a quar- maybe a half.
22:04
Then it's a lot of Haynes King. And normally I would say preseason, don't expect these guys to w- the quarterbacks to run as much because they want them to work through the playbooks- Sure... right, and throw the ball.
22:15
But game one, [laughs] game one of the season, Hall of Fame Game, nobody's ready to play. If, if, if, if he sees n- something not there, he, he'll tuck it and run- What are the-... in the Hall of Fame Game.
22:26
So I, I, what my p- point is here, Haynes King over his rushing yards, if that's available. That would be interesting. First half o- over with the game under four to one. Hmm. Okay. All right.
22:35
First half over, game under. Yeah, maybe, maybe, maybe. Little, little vibe check there. If, if... Look, if you don't wanna bet on the preseason 'cause it, it's weird,
22:43
I like have a little fun on my little four to one shot there. Hey, the wait is over. The VSiN College Football Betting Guide, it's here. Sign up for VSiN Pro today.
22:49
Get instant access to our College Football Betting Guide. Previews of all 138 FBS teams. Great breakdown of the Heisman Trophy by Zach Cohen. Paul Stone with his top quarterbacks.
22:59
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23:11
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:30
Welcome to Wednesday. It is a numbers game. I'm Dustin Sweetolson. That's Kelly Bidlin. Thanks for hanging out with us however you may be tuning in.
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SiriusXM channel 158, YouTube TV, the VSiN Watch App, radio affiliates across the United States of God bless America. The VSiN College Football Betting Guide, it is out.
23:47
It is probably my favorite of the betting guides that we do. Mine too, but can we... Should, should we all be saying that? I don't know if we should all keep saying that.
23:54
No, it's just, you know what it is, college football is in such a weird space right now- Mm-hmm... with, with the, the fluctuation of the rosters year in and year out.
24:02
You just need help, and i- it's nice to look at where you go, "All right, Wes Reynolds agrees with my pick." Super sharp guy. Tim Murray, he likes this Heisman pick that I'm also on.
24:12
W- when you can get that cosign from someone, it's not necessarily just blindly following people, it's more about I was already thinking this, and if Matt Youmans joins me, if Jensen Lewis joins me, I'm like, "Okay, cool."
24:24
I like having that support here- Yeah... and it puts me over the top. Okay, so that's great for you. For me, what's great is like, wow-... players on this team- Oh, this is happening now...
24:32
Texas State's in the Pac-12 now? [laughs] Wow, okay. Yeah, there's a lot happening there. [laughs] North Dakota State's in the, in the Mountain West. It's- It's crazy, man.
24:40
[laughs] It, it, it's a lot of movement every single year. And look, that part's not good for the sport, but I'd also argue the NIL, the transfer portal, it's, it's elevated the, the actual game experience.
24:51
What we're seeing for a product is so much better because quarterbacks who used to go in the third round, fourth round, hoping to make it onto an NFL roster, well, they're sticking around for year five. Mm.
25:03
They're getting paid a few million dollars, and they're getting to show what they can do, hopefully turning themselves into a higher pick with a good season.
25:10
So there's some positives to the landscape we live in, but probably the hardest thing to do is to keep up with who is where.
25:16
And one of those things i- is, is laid out very nicely in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide, the coaching carousel. So if you look at the power schools, a lot of changes.
25:26
The ACC, the two California schools, they have new head coaches. Josh Lepoi comes in from Oregon, where he was the defensive coordinator. He has a, a kid returning in Jackson Kiave Sagapolutele. Nailed it. Wow.
25:41
I can't- Well done. I know, dude. It, it's a lot of practice. Don't try it again. Don't try it again. You have to say it in the mirror like you're, you're the guy in Cool Runnings- [laughs]... who's like, "I see pride.
25:50
I see power." [laughs] "I see a bad..." I can't say it here, but you get what I'm saying. I know. Uh, that's how you have to say, uh, Jaren Kiave Sagapolutele. Oh, man. All right.
26:02
Uh, hey, you, you gotta- You have to slow down for it... you got it again, but yeah, you had to slow it down the second time. Yeah, I had to slow it down. I, I was smooth the first time. Yeah, you were smooth.
26:07
But because they have him, because they brought in a coordinator in Lepoi, who, you know, is gonna have this defense dialed up, he brought some pieces with him, uh, they're expected to be a fun team to watch this year.
26:18
Stanford bringing in Tavita Pritchard, he has experience in the school, right? He, he's a Stanford guy and, and he has familiarity with Andrew Luck. That's a big TBD where people are questioning it.
26:28
I would say I probably question it less than most just because I believe in Andrew Luck as a football genius. Virginia Tech has James Franklin joining the fold. What's crazy is he got Brent Pry to stay around as his DC.
26:41
Brent Pry was the fired Virginia Tech head coach. Mm-hmm. Imagine you go to the office every day and you're like, "Well, that's not my parking spot anymore." [laughs] "That's not my office anymore." Somewhere, yeah.
26:50
"I used to be in charge here." That's just such a weird ex- Uh... like I'm thinking in the NFL- I used to tell that guy what to do, that guy what to do, and now I can't Yeah... like I'm their, I'm, I'm their equal now.
27:00
Like I always think about Dave Campo going back to the Cowboys- Yeah... and he's like the special teams coach. That's al- that's always an odd... That was weird... we have Vance Joseph in Denver right now- Mm-hmm...
27:09
as the DC, where he was the head coach previously. Those are the only three moves there.
27:12
In the Big 12, Jimmy Rogers comes up from FCS to Iowa State, and initially thi- this would probably be a guy in the past that I'd want to back.
27:19
The problem is Matt Campbell took basically everyone who's any good on the [laughs] Iowa State roster with him to Penn State.
27:26
Collin Klein goes back to Kansas State for his alma mater with Avery Johnson after a pretty good run as a coordinator, and he knows how things work at Manhattan.
27:35
I, I'm very intrigued by them, if he can get, get them back- Yeah... to their winning ways. He replaces Chris Klieman, who was a really good win on the margins coach.
27:43
Oklahoma State and Eric Morris, high-powered offense from North Texas. A- and the, the thing that I wanna do with Oklahoma State, I think the win total's five and a half.
27:52
It's gonna be tough 'cause they bring in a lot of new pieces. But Eric Morris has a, a great offense, and he brings his quarterback with him, Drew Mestemaker- Yeah... who put up crazy numbers last year.
28:01
He's getting some Heisman love. 72 to 1. Zach Cohen wrote about it. That's one that I talked with Tim Murray about on the, the College Football Betting Podcast. I, I, I like Mestemaker as a long shot. It...
28:12
Look, he's not gonna have the wins to do it, but if there's some cannibalization at the top of the Heisman board- Sure...
28:17
where a lot of these guys knock each other off to some degree, and he just has an insane stat line, he's gonna be in the mix for the conversa- And I think he's capable of doing that. That checks out, yep.
28:27
Morgan Scally takes over at Utah for Kyle Whittingham, and then we go over to the Big 10, where Kyle Whittingham is at Michigan now.
28:34
And Michigan I think is gonna be a better football team, but I don't think that results in them going over their win total. I don't think that results in them being a playoff team or anything like that.
28:41
But I do think they're gonna play better. A lot of guys stayed. Bryce Underwood now has a new coordinator in Jason Beck, who, who really maximized Devin Dampier the last couple years.
28:50
I think Michigan week in and week out you're gonna wanna back, but as far as the win total, I agree, Matt Humans wrote it up in the College Football Betting Guide. He likes the under on them.
28:58
The schedule's just brutal for them. Week two they've got Oklahoma, and Oklahoma's a bunch of grown men this season. Pat Fitzgerald is back in college football, taking over a depleted Michigan State program.
29:09
He's good at doing more with less, and that's what he's gonna have to do there in East Lansing. Matt Campbell at Penn State, they have a very fortuitous situation with their schedule.
29:19
I mean, they ain't play nobody, Paul. Mm. They got no one they gotta go through. And then Bob Chesney at, at UCLA, a really good write-up in the betting guide from Ben Stevens, who loves Bob Chesney.
29:30
He likes them to go over their win total. I am, I am with him. I think Bob Chesney and UCLA are really gonna d- Niko Immeliova just needs to be coached up, and he was not coached up at the beginning of last year.
29:42
Once Jerry Neuheisel took over as OC, when they made the firing, uh, things, things kind of went in a different trajectory. I think Chesney's gonna have UCLA very, very tough this year. And we go to the SEC.
29:54
The SEC is where I have my two bets on the win totals that I wrote up in the guide on two new coaches. So first the ones that I didn't write about. Auburn and Alex Golos. Auburn's gonna have offense.
30:06
They're gonna have punch. Alex Golos really impressed me at SEC Media Day, Kelly. He was very composed. He wasn't doing schtick. He wasn't playing the game that everyone plays in the media. Mm-hmm.
30:15
He's just like, "Yeah, we're gonna show up and do what we do, and we have a system that we stand by. We believe in our system, and we're gonna execute."
30:20
He brings his quarterback, Byron Brown, and as long as Byron Brown's healthy, Auburn has a puncher's chance- Yeah... against just about anybody.
30:26
A- another guy that's been getting some, uh, longer shot Heisman love, right? Yeah. Byron Brown. Yeah. Absolutely. And then Florida, they add John Sumrall replacing Billy Napier.
30:35
Sumrall's a winner, and I'll tell you this, I'm very, very interested to see how the offense goes in year one. Buster Faulkner is the OC. Buster Faulkner and I were at Valdosta State together.
30:46
He was a quarterback, eventually became a coach, was the offensive coordinator in 2007. Buster Faulkner is a master of the air raid.
30:54
He's bounced around to Georgia, most recently at Georgia Tech the last couple years helping them revitalize that offense. He brings Aaron Philo, the backup quarterback from the Yellow Jackets, with him down to Florida.
31:07
If Philo can play, they will be successful. If it's not this year, it's next year, Buster Faulkner will bring offense back to the swamp. I believe in him as a play caller.
31:16
I've just seen it happen for such a long time in a couple different stops with the guy. LSU, Lane Kiffin, we know the boom or bust potential.
31:23
Ole Miss and Pete Golding, I, I really wanna see what it looks like having a full off-season o- of, of putting across your message.
31:30
It's easy to galvanize when your back's against the wall, when you all feel hurt, as Lane Kiffin leads during a playoff run.
31:37
It's another thing to come in and say, "I'm the guy who's generating this entire program," right? In our, in our world, Kelly, it's like there's some people who can create content on their own.
31:48
There's other people who their content is just, "I'm gonna poke holes through your content." Hmm. They don't know how to create.
31:54
And I think for Pete Golding, last year was an ability to poke holes through what Lane Kiffin was doing. "Well, he left us. This is what we were missing while he was here." Right, right.
32:02
"Let- let's adjust whatever I think I've been viewing from my vantage point that needs to be improved here." And then you can go and build upon whatever's already laid as the foundation.
32:11
Now you're generating it all from the ground up yourself. Y- no excuses, your time. Yeah, I- It's your time... I'm not doubting Pete Golding, I'm just saying that's something that needs to be acknowledged. Hmm.
32:20
No, that's fair. The two win totals I have though from these new coaches in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide. Check it out right now, vsin.com/subscribe. Start today for just $9.99. The first one is an over.
32:32
Give me Kentucky. I, I, I really, I'm a big Will Stein guy. Y- you look at what he's accomplished as a coach. He turned Bo Nix into a first-rounder.
32:39
He turned Dillon Gabriel into an NFL quarterback, and Dante Moore was a H- was a Heisman candidate a year ago. Kenny Minchey's the quarterback.
32:46
He battled CJ Carr last season, and CJ Carr is the Heisman favorite this year. Kenny Minchey almost won the job. They also added in the portal huge receivers. Nick Anderson, 6'4" from LSU, was at Oklahoma previously.
33:00
Shane Carr, 6'2", Southern Utah, very productive. Ja'Kaden Ferguson, 6'2", coming in from Arkansas. UAB Xavier Daisy, 6'3".
33:08
And they got a running back in CJ Baxter who was supposed to be the starter a couple years ago at Texas. Huge upside. Offensive line's been rebuilt with four stars. Three four stars in the portal from big programs.
33:18
Give me Kentucky over four-and-a-half wins, -150. And then Arkansas, under four-and-a-half wins at -166. You could even take it down to three-and-a-half at plus money. Ryan Silverfield was a weird hire.
33:29
They have to do more with less. They are a run-first team. They're gonna be losing all year. I don't believe they're built to throw from behind and cover numbers.
33:39
Because of that, I think they wind up going under this number. The schedule's brutal as well. The, no favors for them, but I just don't think they're built to throw the ball consistently. Football season's almost here.
33:50
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34:02
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34:14
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:34
Coming at you, Circa Sports Book, downtown Las Vegas. I'm Dustin Swedelson, he's Kelly Bidlin. Fun show lined up today. The quarterback tiers are out. The Athletic does a great job with that every year.
34:44
Yeah, it's awesome. I see some very disrespectful numbers- Yeah... next to certain quarterbacks. Yeah. I think there's some guys that might be mis-tiered. A former MVP has fallen out of that top group.
34:56
We'll tell you who that is later on in the program today. A lot to get to. Nick Whalen will drop by. We'll chat with Will Hill in studio as well. Paul Spohrer breaks down Major League Baseball.
35:07
And then Kelly found a fun market, head-to-head NFL wins. So basically you can get really good prices on one team to have more wins than the other, and that's up at DraftKings.
35:17
Kelly and I will share some of our favorite ones there as we want to fade some of the same teams- Yeah... going forward. I love that one, man.
35:24
B- between that and a couple of these baseball markets, I might actually have to, like, uh, make a trip down to, uh, Arizona here. Oh, that's interesting.
35:30
I mean, the other ones we were talking about, we've been talking about for, like, a week. Like, the Brewers one seed, I really like that right now, four to one.
35:37
You do feel like a guy who fits in well in Scottsdale, I will tell you that. Right? Yeah, I think so too. Yeah, I feel like that's a good vibe for you. Eh, I think you're right. And then, like, I...
35:45
You know, Gil brought up last week, most wins in August. Cubs, nine to one.
35:48
Like, that number's shorter, but, like, this is, we talked about it, getting through the Yankees and the Dodgers, and they d- got through with only one loss. Like that, like it. Yeah. Yeah.
35:57
All right, I like where your head's at. I'm also gonna run an MVP candidate by Kelly later on in the show when we do the quarterback tiers, because we have sound of a wide receiver hyping up his dude.
36:06
The number's a little bit shorter than I wanted it to be, but it feels like one of those bets at the end of the year that if you don't place it, you're gonna go, "Yeah, why... W- what was I thinking not doing that?"
36:15
Right. Yeah, yeah. So I, I will share that later on in the program as well. But some news out of the NFL, this via Jeremy Fowler. It is confirmed for Atlanta linebacker, Jalen Walker has torn his ACL.
36:26
That is a huge- Brutal... loss for the Falcons, as the rookie out of j- or the, the second-year guy out of Georgia had a really good rookie year.
36:34
Part of the reason why this defense took the next step was they finally had a pass rush. They were getting it from him at, at outside linebacker.
36:42
You combine that with the fact that James Pierce, with his transgressions in the off-season, a suspension is coming at some point, we just don't know how many games. You have Billy Bowman coming off of an injury.
36:54
I, I know a lot of people around here wanted to hype up the Falcons because Kevin Stefanski's there.
36:58
But if you're not getting after quarterbacks and you don't have Pierce for a certain number of games, you don't have Jaylen Walker now for the year with a torn ACL, I don't know how this defense picks up where it left off a year ago, where it made huge strides in 2025.
37:10
Yeah, I mean, that's the, that's a major concern, right? I, and we all know about the quarterback being a question coming in.
37:16
I, I've be- I've been a defender of the Falcons with a little bit of just who else am I that scared of in the NFC South.
37:21
But it's been a lot about, yes, the improvements that we saw from the defense, and then the pieces that are on that offense already, and can they just get enough out of the quarterback.
37:31
But you start to lose these guys on the defensive side of a- of the ball, becomes a different conversation. I know, I know we all love Kevin Stefanski. I know we all hype him up over and over again. We, we...
37:41
He's, he's won the Coach of the Year twice. But let's live in a world where we're wrong. I know people don't like to go there.
37:47
[laughs] I, I know we don't like to acknowledge that sometimes we're wrong about these things. Maybe some of the issues in Cleveland actually might have been Kevin Stefanski.
37:55
Without his two best defensive players potentially here, in, in Pierce and Walker, at least his best pass rushers, and with potentially starting Tua Tagovailoa as your number one guy- Mm-hmm...
38:07
should we be discussing the Falcons to have the worst record in the NFL at 15 to 1? I mean, re- re- realistically. [exhales] I can't- Because-... get there. I can't get there.
38:14
I, I, guy, I, I think, I think everyone's falling in love with Stefanski the play caller. I love Bijan Robinson. I love Drake London.
38:21
Kyle Pitts, the, the second half of last year was tremendous, but there's pretty good track record of him not showing up. I, I, I don't know. I, I think we might be hyping up the Falcons too much.
38:31
Yeah, you see, you know what? I, like, I like Stefanski. Stefanski being there has never really been a major part of the handicap- Okay...
38:37
for me of why I think the Falcons could actu- or could actually be in the mix this year in the south. Would you go under the six and a half? No. Oh, you actually go over? It would be over or anything. Really?
38:46
It would be o- it would be over. I... Now, look, it, as these defensive injuries continue, um... And look, we'll talk to Will. I think Will, Will's on this side, too.
38:55
It, it's a lot of dogs and long shots for me in the NFC when we're talking divisions. Like, if I had to play a division bet here, it probably would be Atlanta still to win this, though that's kind of a long- Still?
39:03
No, no, Kelly, Kelly, they, they, they, Tua's no quarterback. Uh, w- who... Oh, oh, gosh, this is... It's just a division that's just chock-full of amazing Hall of Fame quarterbacks. You know, we've been talking- Okay...
39:16
about Bryce Young all week. No, look, fair, fair. [laughs] We got Shuck- Fair. Okay. Let, let, let-... over there into New Orleans... let's, let's do this.
39:20
Let's do the Shuck thing- Baker Mayfield can't get a contract settled. Sh- can, can we do the Shuck thing real quick? 'Cause I, I am... We've reached a point with the, the Shuck hype- Yeah...
39:28
where, like, w- we, we've completely just jumped the shark. Yeah, I com- I com- uh, uh, very much agree with you. Guy- guys, he put up monster numbers as they won what, four of five down the stretch- Mm-hmm...
39:39
at Tampa Bay. Which, by the way, he didn't have a good game. Against Carolina, against the Jets, at the Titans, and at Atlanta in January when Raheem Morris was...
39:50
[tsking] Like, let's, let's, let's temper the expecta- I like Tyler Shuck. He might be good. He might be good. I had 60 to one on him to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Believe me, I wanted that ticket- Yeah...
40:01
to, to be real. We have to use context when we... It's like the, the last year when we do the MVP debate. Context has to matter.
40:08
Who Drake May was beating versus who Matthew Stafford was beating had to matter in the conversation. Is Tyler Shuck better than most of us anticipated? 100%. But also, remember who he did it against, okay?
40:21
Yeah, w- Dustin, we've seen... I've been sitting over here smiling.
40:23
We've seen the, we've seen, we've seen three seasons of Bryce Young, and anybody who listens to this show regularly knows I, I, uh, I always go to, "I don't know how good this guy is still."
40:33
We've only seen how many games of Tyler Shuck, and I'm supposed to be convinced he's great? I, I think Bryce Young stinks. I think they're the bet in this market.
40:40
[laughs] So maybe I shouldn't be giving you so much about t- betting a- wanting to bet Atlanta. I think the Panthers, I, I, I think they do take a step back. I think Bryce Young can't see his receivers.
40:49
I guess we'll push country, country plug in. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. Plug him back in a bit. We'll get to that later. He'll get to golf. And then l- we didn't even talk about the drama at the top with Tampa Bay.
40:56
Baker wants a new deal. He's gonna be franchised next year according to reports, which I... Can we, can we at least agree as Americans that the franchise tag is unconstitutional? Oh, yeah. Yep.
41:06
In a free market society- Mm-hmm... how is- He's not allowed to go pursue... how is the franchise tag legal? How has, like, the Better Business Bureau not stepped in at some point? I mean, like, uh...
41:16
Oh, God, I'm so with you, 'cause I'd really be with you on most of those types of conversations. But, like, it's just we, we all don't care when it's like, yeah, he's, he's making top five money No, I get it.
41:25
I mean- He's gonna get paid, but he also doesn't have any control in his future- No, he doesn't. [laughs]... or career. You're right. It's messed up. I, I don't, I don't- It's messed up... understand how this is legal.
41:32
No, we went through this yesterday, something Panthers, Saints. This is my points. Panthers, Saints, we kinda talked about them. I, I like the Bucs. They very, they very well might be the best team in this division.
41:42
But can we sit here and confidently say this is a better team than a year ago? No. Vita Vea wants out. Mike Evans is gone. Yeah, I can't say that at all. And then, then you tell me what you think of this statement.
41:53
The report was yesterday out of Tampa Bay the offense is 50% what they ran with- Oh my God... Grizzard- I saw it... and 50% what they, they're gonna run now with Zach Robinson. I... Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
42:06
I think they were trying to frame it like it was a good thing. Kelly's standing up. What the hell does that mean? [laughs] Standing up. That, that has got- We're standing up... that has got disaster written all over it.
42:16
I'm glad you caught the same... I s- I saw that too, and I was like, "What?" I was like, I, I think they're trying- What?... they're trying to tell us this is a good th- I think it's a negative. I think it's a...
42:23
Uh, it sounds like a terrible thing. Because now Zach Robinson's trying to be someone that he's not. And by the way, Zach Robinson, who I like a lot as a person, when he was at PFF in the early days- Mm-hmm...
42:31
he used to come on radio shows, and he was awesome. He didn't have a great run in Atlanta. No, not at all. But- So, so, so we're gonna mix half of his offense and half of an offense that's gone? Yes.
42:43
And that people know about? Yes. I, I, I th- I, th- I thought that quote was wild. Where's Josh, Josh Grizzard now? Where is he? Oh, he's with the Eagles as a pass game coordinator. Mm.
42:54
That's a, that's a weird move to go from the Bucs to, to there. Let's hear from Tua Tagovailoa. That's Kelly's guy. [laughs] He's riding with the Falcons.
43:01
They're four to one to win the division And Tua met with the media yesterday, I believe this is from NFL Network, talking about their team and expectations for this season I think what success looks like for me is what it would look like for the team.
43:15
Mm. The team's success. You know, obviously you wanna g- win games. Um, you wanna win playoff games here. But the ultimate goal, regardless of where I'm at, whether it's here or anywhere else, is to win a Super Bowl.
43:26
Okay. So if you could clarify, we know you were limited today with some back tightness and every- No way... what exactly is going on? Is this something that, that is serious?
43:34
Because we see you out there throwing the ball around. Yeah, nothing too serious. Just, um, just, like, a caution, uh, sort of thing, where we're not rushing it. Um, but it was just a flare-up.
43:45
[air horn] Nothing big, not, not anything long-term, so we'll be fine. Oh, yeah, no, no, it's nothing serious. It's nothing long-term for a guy who's always hurt. We shouldn't be concerned. Just a back, just a back.
43:55
Can't wait to watch a lot of Jack Strand this season. Yeah, who is that? Uh, well, he's their third stringer. Uh, played at, uh, Minnesota Moorhead. Well, they signed Cooper Rush, remember?
44:05
Yeah, some, for some reason I'm looking at a depth chart with him fourth. Minnesota State Moorhead. There's a joke- Yeah... I'm not allowed to make anymore based on my, uh, big deal here. Anymore. That's so great.
44:16
Tua, Tua- I've heard you make that joke... Tua played 14 games last year. He played 11 the year prior. Played a full season in 2023, had a monster year. 2022, 13 games. 2021, started 12, played in 13.
44:29
Why am I supposed to believe that Tua, the back issue that's happening right now, is not gonna impact him going forward?
44:35
Like, why, why do I have to be the guy who has to, that has to defend the Falcons quarterback situation? But you know, you're not relying on Tua, you're relying on Tua and Michael Penix. We think.
44:45
And who- Michael Penix is hurt as much as Tua going back to college. I was, I don't wanna be the guy having to make these d- this defense. Michael Penix has two new ACLs. One in each leg. Two... That's not a good thing.
44:58
He's not Iron Man, that's for sure. All right. More coming up here on The Numbers Game. Will Hill with his thoughts on the NFL as well. That's next. [upbeat music]
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