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Aug 6, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 6, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 6, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:42
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So are those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:11
VSiN.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, however you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, it's Wyatt Tomchek in for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. Glad you could hang with us.
0:22
Uh, still to come this hour, we'll talk some baseball with Paul Spohrer as the White Sox achieve new heights, and by heights, I mean lows. Just absolutely historic stuff from the Chicago White Sox.
0:34
We'll get into that with Spohrer. We'll talk more AFC West. Um, we'll also get an appearance from, uh, the gentleman that I like to call the commissioner of sports betting.
0:41
Captain Jack will be with us to talk, uh, egregious DraftKings taxes, which is always a fun topic. Uh, but first, uh, always thrilled to have this gentleman on, and it's been a few times over the years.
0:54
I believe him to be the smartest human being in sports betting. [laughs] Uh, he has a new book, it's called Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Bettor.
1:06
It's Elihu Feustel, courtesy of BetBash, strolls on into the D. How you doing, man? Hey, thanks for having me. Um, can I embarrass you before we do anything? Absolutely. Uh, Adam Chernoff. You know Adam Chernoff, yeah?
1:17
Yes. He, uh, he DM'd a bunch of this. I'm not sure if you're aware of this. Okay. Maybe you got the DM too. But he says he's doing an anonymous article for bettors.
1:26
He asked X number of people in the industry for their answer, um, "The Sports Gambling Hall of Fame 2024 class was recently announced.
1:33
If you were to nominate anyone from the sports gambling world, past or present, who would it be?" Here is my answer, Elihu. Uh, I said, "In a market of sports betting's largest brains, I'll take Feustel versus the field.
1:47
Whether authoring books on sports betting or spending countless hours moderating forums and helping bettors, only his generosity exceeds his smarts.
1:55
I'm not sure that sports betting as a singular discipline can contain him forever, but even if it doesn't, for life contributions already made, there shouldn't be a Sports Betting Hall of Fame without Elihu Feustel."
2:06
[laughs] All right, I'm embarrassed. Yeah, and I sincerely mean all of that, man, 'cause for those who have, have been around a long time,
2:14
um, I was reared, reared sports betting-wise, on the Simon Noble newsletters of Pinnacle Sports in the '90s. You told me you ghostwrote some of those. Um, yes, for the first three years. For three years. Yeah.
2:26
I don't think I could have gotten a better education on the subject. You were then Justin7, right? Sportsbook Review, yes. At SBR, and you were so generous helping.
2:38
I, I was not part of that, but I, I remember finally figuring out that that was you too. Um, and you were so generous helping any level of question, right? The, the simplest to the most advanced, and you're an author.
2:50
I have Conquering Risk, your old book, on my bookshelf, um, which is, was great just for even the charts in the back, and now you're saying for this new book...
2:59
So by the way, man, I mean, this is, you're, you're awesome, all this. And then you were saying off-air about this book? Yeah. There's a, a barcode, so if you go to the code at the very beginning, it's got...
3:10
Let's see if I can get it quickly here. Where you scan with your phone, it'll take you to a directory that has 38 files,
3:17
and it s- it explains the files in different parts of the chapter on how to do, how to solve certain problems- Wow... how to use, write source code to do certain things.
3:26
Wow, so g- so it's beyond the actual physical pages of the book, then? Yes. What made you wanna write this book, again, called Beyond the Odds?
3:34
What, what was it about this time in sports betting that, that made this a, uh, an idea for you to write a whole book out of? Well, writing is fun, first of all.
3:42
I enjoy writing, not just non-fiction, but bad science fiction. [laughs] Yeah, 'cause you did a novel, right, at some point? Yeah. Yeah, okay. And, um, I wanted to do som- You know, Conquering Risk was a beginner's book.
3:54
It was designed for players who haven't won tournament, to give them the tools they need to win.
4:00
This is more geared towards adva- players who already know how to win and want to win more and figure out how to fight the books that are limiting them and collaring them, um, how to use market numbers.
4:13
So it's not top-down, but it's a variation on top-down. If you understand how the markets work, you can use the information contained in that and extrapolate and go far beyond top-down.
4:23
Yeah, because the second part of the tubti- subtitle here is Tools of Warfare- Yes... for the Modern Sports Bettor. I saw somebody was commenting, like, "You're not in Kosovo, Elihu, relax."
4:31
[laughs] But what you, what you, I would imagine, without having... 'Cause I have, uh, full disclosure, I'm just getting my copy now, so thank you. Um, I appreciate it very much.
4:39
So I haven't read it yet, but I would imagine a lot of this has to do with you just being able to stay alive with accounts. So the, the, the conflict between players and sports books is a fight over resources.
4:50
It's a fight over money, just like any other conflict is in the world, and there are rules to the war, and there are ways to confuse your enemy, and Sun Tzu's Art of War is a classic
5:03
showing ways to win wars and how not to do stupid things.
5:07
So there's a lot of concepts in here, you know, not just from avoiding unforced errors, but to ways to avoid detection or mislead your opponent so that they cla- misclassify you. Oh.
5:19
Because once they recognize you as a smart player, whatever book it is, you're not gonna win as much money.
5:24
So if you can confuse them, if you can emulate a low-functioning moron, you're going to last longer and make a lot more money. [laughs] That's right. A low-functioning moron. Without- That's right...
5:34
throwing away money to do it, though. Okay. It's easy to thr- Lots of people will make bad plays and say, "I'm doing this for cover." The, the trick is to make good plays that look bad. Yeah.
5:44
I've, I've heard you talk about this, either you tweeted about it or we had a conversation, but this has been a subject that has been near and dear to your heart and so many, uh, so many sports bettors for a long time now.
5:53
Did you expect when, when PASPA was ruled unconstitutional in 2018, May 14th of 2018- And if I had talked to you that day and I said, "Elihu, it's legal. It's gonna..."
6:05
And, and we didn't know if it was gonna be state to state at that point, but it ended up. We- we- the money was on it was gonna be state to state. It was not gonna be federal oversight at that point.
6:13
Here we are six-plus years later. If I had asked you then how you think this was gonna go, would you have predicted that that would've gone the way that it has? And by, by that I mean
6:25
the, the poor profiling of bettors or the, the quick ex- the, the quick elimination of bettors that showed any modicum of success.
6:33
I was surprised at a number of levels how bad it was at the beginning and how it hasn't evolved as fast as I thought it would. So there are still lots of opportunities there. Uh, I mean, opportunities come and go, but
6:47
sp- your sportsbooks, they learn, and they generally become, if they survive, they become more difficult to beat, and they, things that didn't work or things that used to work don't continue working. But
6:58
the way that the sportsbooks are combating players, when you blindly counter them and you don't try to solve the underlying problems, the problems last a lot longer.
7:07
Whereas if you take the bets and you say, "Well, what do they do? Why are they doing this?"
7:11
And you solve the source of the problem, instead of addressing the, identifying the player as the problem, you evolve a lot faster.
7:17
So the, the legal regulated markets are not evolving as fast as ones that, as the market makers. I'm gonna talk about this with Captain Jack a little later on in the show.
7:26
Um, obviously this surcharge, this tax from DraftKings has, is obviously, everybody in sports betting, Twitter and beyond, is- is just, you know, correctly up in arms about this. Is this only gonna get worse?
7:40
I don't, I think this is a non-issue. You do? I don't think it'll last long. Okay. Um- You, you think it may not even see the light of day? Right.
7:47
Like, between now and, and the first of the year where it's supposed to be implemented. I mean, the pushback-- So even recreational players are somewhat price-sensitive.
7:54
They know the difference between laying 110 and 115. Well, especially when they do it the way that they're doing it, right? Yeah.
8:00
They could have snuck it into a same game parlay, and people, you know, people who play those wouldn't have been the wiser. Yeah. Right. But they're underestimating the smartness of your average bettor.
8:10
They are underestimating the smartness of the average bettor. You believe that? Yes, I do. Okay. Are they underestimating the smartness of the novice bettor? Yes. Really?
8:20
Novices know 113 is worse than, 113.6 is worse than 110. Wow. Any moron knows this. Well, I would hope they would know- Yeah...
8:27
instead of seeing like a pl- you know, an even money bet that obviously they got docked a little bit. I hope they would be able to see that. But they see that every bet they make is at- Yeah...
8:34
at this price instead of 110 at FanDuel or any of the other competitors. It's, it's not hard.
8:40
Wouldn't DraftKings realize that they, they, that people will, will quickly realize, "Well, there's no really, there's no point in me betting here at all then"? That's why I'll be surprised if- Yeah...
8:49
they execute it, and if they do, I'd be surpri- more surprised if it lasted. Okay. Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Bettor.
8:58
If I was asking for the 30-second elevator pitch on this, why someone shou- should buy this, you would say... To get smarter. Just to get sma- Yeah. To get smarter is the macro.
9:09
So the two big concepts are, again, understanding how markets can be used to make more money.
9:15
So if you understand a market price in a, of a spread and a total, how you can use these past games to bring it to derivatives, first halves.
9:24
How you can use the past history actually to model better, to improve your model using efficient market theory. Um- Okay. 'Cause I did, I didn't, you know, you said earlier it was for advanced bettors.
9:33
I didn't want novice bettors to be turned off by the book either. Now, novice bettors, uh, there's a, a section on using bonuses correctly. Okay.
9:41
And if you know nothing else, if you learn nothing else from that, it'll more than pay for the book. Beautiful. That, that's what I wanted to get at. Okay.
9:47
Uh, I mentioned something there in my, in my little brief tribute to you, Elihu, I mentioned something there, uh, which is I don't know if sports betting will be able c- to contain you forever. Uh, I would imagine
10:01
that at some point, and you said you've already written a sci- you know- Yeah... you, you called it a bad science fiction book, but you have, I'm sure you have other interests as well.
10:10
Do you think you'll, five years from now, do you think we'll be talking about sports betting? Probably, 'cause I still, I enjoy the problem-solving more than the execution. Okay.
10:18
So we, you, there will never be a, I don't wanna say never, but you can't anticipate a time in your life where you'll be like, "Ah, I don't talk about that anymore." Uh, I'll still enjoy talking about it. Okay.
10:26
What do you think you might want to drift to? I enjoy teaching. I enjoy writing. I enjoy exercise. So I don't know. Lots of things. Would you, would you have been a, a teacher if it had paid more?
10:36
Uh, there's a lot of BS to deal with when you're a teacher. Yeah. [laughs] That's true as well. But the nice thing about, like, teaching on th- at this scale is there's not much BS. Ah.
10:45
You, you, you work with somebody, you, they develop, and that's it, and there's no one to answer to for it. It's a beautiful thing. Um, you will be at BetBash. Will you be signing copies for people at BetBash?
10:55
As long as I'm, Amazon doesn't lose my shipment. It should be here no later than Friday. I, I feel somewhat responsible for your shipment, by the way. [laughs] So I gotta, I gotta, I gotta monitor that situation.
11:05
We're getting, how many books are coming in? Hundreds? 150. 150 books, okay, of Beyond the Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare for the Modern Sports Bettor. Again, you're on Twitter at D_Feustel. Yes.
11:17
F-E-U-S-T-E-L for people who wanna take a look at the book. They can order it from Amazon there as well. Yes. Elihu, I hope to see you for the rest of the week. Awesome. If not- See you often... thanks for coming by.
11:27
Thank you. Elihu Feustel, everybody, the smartest man- [laughs] I'm telling you he is, in sports betting. Uh, always a pleasure to have him.
11:35
Conquering Risk, by the way, uh, his previous book, which I'm sure is available with a search as well. We'll come back. We'll wrap up the AFC West. We'll talk to Paul Spohrer. We'll talk to Captain Jack.
11:46
It's a numbers game at VSIN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
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12:13
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12:32
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12:41
Or if you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N/special. We were in the presence of greatness, Wyatt. That man right there, greatest dude ever.
12:54
Smart, generous, just honestly should be in every sports betting hall of fame. It was a lot of fun. Yeah, man. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
13:02
So, SoCal Fantasy, "Although the strategy is not normally looked upon positively, what do you think of starting a martingale on the Chi Sox," meaning against the Chis, or, or, or on them themselves.
13:14
"They have to win eventually, right?" [laughs] Uh, yes, uh, they do have to win eventually, I think. Uh, right now the, uh, the Chicago White Sox, their 21st consecutive loss yesterday to the Oakland A's.
13:27
We'll talk to Spore about this later. Uh, the losing streak now ties the 1988 Baltimore Orioles for the longest in American League history.
13:34
By the way, the Orioles did that, for those of us old enough to remember, you will recall, at the beginning of the season in 1988. They went 0 and 21. Cal Ripken Sr.
13:44
lost his managerial job, uh, to Joe Altobelli at that point. He was replaced by, but, so they've tied the American League record, the White Sox have.
13:51
Two more consecutive losses, the White Sox would be tied with these 1961 Philadelphia Phillies for the longest losing streak in MLB history at 23 games. Again, two games against the A's to make that happen.
14:04
If you're gonna do it, if you're gonna overcome this, you c- g- you gotta beat the A's. It's not like you're playing the '27 Yankees here. I know the A's have been better, but come on.
14:12
The A's are a minus 205 [laughs] favorite. Good God. Um, and by the way, the White Sox might end up as the worst team in MLB history. They're 27 and 88.
14:25
If you take out this loss, this losing streak, and a 14-game losing streak earlier, they're still the worst team in baseball. I saw that stat yesterday. [laughs] God bless.
14:34
It's- That's like Barry Bonds bizarro stat territory. Y- you know, uh, some fun I just saw here, Gil, on DraftKings is that what, what are, what's, uh, gonna be the White Sox losing streak?
14:44
They go from 22 and a half to 27 and a half. You can bet the over under on it. Well, 'cause after they play the A's, you got some, you got some good ball clubs they're playing, so this is like their chance to win.
14:53
Uh, as far as your question about the martingale, I'm not doing it, just to be perfectly clear. Um, but y- yes, do they have [laughs] to your point, do they have to win sometime? One would think,
15:03
but man, just for a futility for the whole year, they, uh, the White Sox are 27 and 88. The 1916 Athletics, Philadelphia Athletics, went 36 and 117.
15:15
By the way, quick math, the A's, the, excuse me, the White Sox current 27 and 88, and the Athletics 36 and 117 in 1916 have the exact same win percentage right now, 235, so we're banged up against that.
15:28
By the way, most losses in a season, because they played more games, 162 game schedule, the, uh, the Mets of 1962, 41, 40 and 120 and one.
15:39
41, 20, and one, which is slightly better than the pace that the White Sox are on right now. White Sox 235 winning percentage. Um, the Mets of that team, 1960 of that, of that year, 1962, 248. This is from Invictus.
15:54
Um, "Drew is right about Peacock. The streaming has been awesome." Uh, Banshees of Atlantic City. Uh, talking about the Olympics there.
16:01
Banshees of Atlantic City, "Businesses of all kinds," talking about the DraftKings stacks.
16:04
"Businesses of all kinds sometimes get petulant about taxes or other regulations and try to get their customers to apply political pressure by inflicting the pain on them. Never works.
16:12
Dealing with taxes and regulations is the business's job, not the customer's." Amen, man. Stringfellow Hawk, uh, "Drew said he needed Spanish mixed medley speed walking.
16:22
You may need to sit down and have a talk with your boy." [laughs] I might. Uh, Mike Alvarez, "What the hell, Gil, are you talking about? Uh, you're talking about wh- why do you," oh, geez, he's imitating my mother.
16:32
He says, "What the hell are you talking about, Gil? Why you bring me on your show?" Uh, he, he says, "I only agreed to be on your show to give out three team 10-pointers. Sincerely, Joe Theismann."
16:41
Oh, Joe Theismann came on the show a few years back, uh, Super Bowl winning champion, Super Bowl 17 for the Washington Skins.
16:47
Um, when he was on the show, he gave out a three team teaser, but I don't, I don't think he could remember the third team in his three po- in his three team 10-point teaser, [laughs] so it was a bit of a debacle.
16:56
Uh, Tom F., he's on the sea somewhere. He says, "My annual vacation fishing trip accompanied by the dulcet tones of Beating the Book. Let's go 10-point teasers." Um, and a whole bunch more.
17:07
Captain Jack is about to join us. He's tweeting out about that as well. All right, AFC West, let me just get to the last two teams. The Raiders, which are near and dear to the heart of many around here.
17:15
You're a Ra- you're not a Raiders guy. You're a Packers guy, right? Yes, all the family's in Wisconsin, and also, uh, you know, people that, I mean, uh, I'm gonna go down a rabbit hole here.
17:25
Raiders are a California team. They're not a Vegas team. I'm not gonna just, "Oh, La- Las Vegas has a football team. I'm gonna abandon my fandom for the Packers and go root for the Raiders." Nah, can't do it.
17:35
FT had decided when they were doing the preview of the Raiders, they, they just decided to take a more macro approach with it, 'cause they're like, "Look, the Raiders are not
17:42
good as currently constituted," was their, was their basic base point on this. Um, they make the point, you know, how, when have the Raiders been good in the last few years?
17:51
Well, when Rick Bisaccia was the, uh, the interim coach, when they got the, the spark from Antonio Pierce being the, uh, you know, being hired as the interim coach, and, and Max Crosby saying, "I'm, I'm not gonna stick around here if you don't hi- hire Antonio Pierce."
18:03
They also make that point that, like, they're worried about the power balance, that Max Crosby wields more power than anybody else, including the head coach.
18:12
And they make the point that as far as NFL owners' wealth is concerned, that Mark Davis is more of the working man's owner, and that until the Raiders can get out of Jon Gruden's payoff, Josh McDaniels' payout,
18:32
and, you know, a big contract to Devontae Adams, until they get past the big portion of that, they can't really go crazy in free agency.
18:40
So the only thing the Raiders really did was Christian Wilkins on the defensive side of the ball, which they do admit is a good addition for sure.
18:47
But, you know, for those who were thrilled with Aiden O'Connell at the end of last year, they point out, look, he's dangerously immobile.
18:56
They said he was a fourth-round afterthought in the 2023 draft class, and he did his best work this year against staggering opponents helmed on the offensive side by Tommy DeVito, Easton Stick, and Jarrett Stidham.
19:08
And they also question the Brock Bowers pick, which we did as well. You have Mike, Michael Mayer. Why did you need to draft Brock Bowers? Especially when tight ends historically drafted that high take a while to develop.
19:19
So as great as Brock Bowers might be, it might not be this season from a historical standpoint. So they, but, but they point out at the end, and the Raiders still could finish second in this division.
19:27
They're, but they're not gonna threaten for a playoff spot according to, to their, uh, analysis of them. And then the Chargers, and I think it's great that the 32nd team we look at is the Chargers.
19:38
Anecdotally on this show and on this network, I think we have the most, I think we have the widest variance of opinions on the Los Angeles Chargers that I think of any team. Some people are super high on them.
19:49
They're going over on everything.
19:50
Some people feel the exact opposite way, that this team is highly overrated, and that Jim Harbaugh is kind of covering up the, the, the whole Harbaugh, um, aura is covering up for a lot of, of warts.
20:03
That's how FTN views it. They called, and we talked about the Patriots yesterday and how bad their skill position players are, uh, pre-Brandon Aiyuk if they end up getting him.
20:12
They call the Chargers skill position players the worst group in the entire National Football League. Worst, period.
20:23
Um, now of course, the headline with the Chargers here is that Justin Herbert has plantar fasciitis, so he's gonna be out four to five weeks.
20:30
Obviously, this is a franchise snake bit by injuries already year after year after year, so when this came down, it's like, "Oh my God, are you serious?"
20:37
But they point out, like, for as great as Justin Herbert has been, and he has a great arm
20:42
for sure, and there's so much potential, but there were seven games last year where he had the ball in his hands, and the Chargers needed to drive late to beat opponents.
20:53
And not only did it, like, end up poorly, but, like, some of those drives couldn't even get off the ground.
20:58
So Justin Herbert, even when healthy, they ca- you know, their, their point of view is, still has a lot to answer for. We just can't anoint him a top five quarterback if he hasn't really shown it on the field.
21:10
Now, part of that, they admit, is he did not have, you know, he had sort of aging players around him in some circumstances. More often than not, it was injured players around him. Not all of it came down to him.
21:19
They do acknowledge that they got in those positions, uh, to have the ball in their hands late because a lot of Justin Herbert. So there's good and bad with him.
21:27
Uh, it's just that he hasn't come through in the clutch when he has needed to more often than not. But they point out, it's like, look, Joshua Palmer's your number one wideout this year.
21:37
Um, Quentin Johnston might be a bust. Yeah, D.J. Chark is there, but, like, Ladd McConkie was a B-tier prospect. Gus We- Gus Edwards, J.K.
21:46
Dobbins in the backfield is like, where are they g- how quickly are they gonna get to IR?
21:50
So their, their opinion on the Chargers is really bad, and they think that they have made all-- Like, every decision that they made in the off-season was a bad one in terms of who did they allot the money to.
22:02
They allotted it to Khalil Mack in the, on the defensive side of the ball, and that might work out for a year. But, like, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, who they also gave money to, Joey Bosa's coming off multiple injuries.
22:15
They've got about a one-year, two-year arc for those players as well. So they're not bullish on the Chargers as well.
22:22
If they had to tier them, yes, the Chiefs are far and away number one, but they kind of have the Chargers below the Raiders and the Broncos.
22:28
And I, I do not have an opinion on it, but I think it's fascinating that the Chargers of all teams, even with the Joe Alt draft, which everybody loves drafting a lineman for, for long-term stuff, this year may be ugly.
22:41
May be very ugly for the Chargers, despite a lot of people thinking, "Oh, the schedule's so easy, they'll be great." Uh, we'll come back.
22:46
Some baseball with Paul Spoor next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:02
We gotta bring in Futek, and I know this week's big Bet Bash week, so we have all the Bet Bash guests on the show, but we'll bring in Futek next week to talk a whole, talk a whole bunch of college football.
23:09
Don't forget, our college football betting guide is out. Um, it is stacked, as all our betting guides are.
23:16
It's the ultimate resource for the upcoming college football season, including previews of all one hundred thirty-four teams, preseason top twenty-five, power ratings, proven betting systems, and more.
23:24
We got a twelve-team playoff, baby.
23:26
Sign up today and receive both the college football and NFL betting guide, plus full VSiN Pro access to our daily pro picks, twenty-four/seven video, exclusive data like our betting splits.
23:34
All our subscription options are at vsin.com/subscribe, and pick the plan that works best for you. That's V-S-I-N/subscribe. We got tweets that beat me to the book.
23:43
Captain Jack, uh, saying, uh, he'll be on a Numbers Game in a bit. Lots to discuss about where things are headed in US sports betting. He's the commissioner of sports betting joining us momentarily, Mike Zhang.
23:52
I just had my Good Will Hunting moment. Was that with Elihu maybe earlier? I don't know. Uh, Brian M., "I saw a post on Instagram.
24:00
If the White Sox set the modern-day MLB losing streak record," which will be three more losses if they do Uh, the record-setting game would be at home against the Cubs with fireworks [laughs] after the game.
24:11
Scott C, "We're so, uh, we're in luck as, uh, recent listeners get wisdom from Elihu Feustel. Thank you, Gil, for introducing many of us to the man and his work. Can't wait to pick up the book."
24:21
Thank you, Scott C, and again, all thanks to Elihu for, uh, making the short walk. And when you walk from Circa to the D, uh, you gotta sort of, uh, you know, dodge the shivvings. You do at a certain hour of the morning.
24:32
Yeah, when I was, uh, producing Sharp Money, that, that walk was really interesting. Yeah. But I've learned, just put your AirPods in, kind of a scowl look on your face, nobody tries to talk to you.
24:41
[laughs] Remember, there are shivvings and there are shankings. One is a subset of the other. I'll let you figure out which is which.
24:47
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, from Austin, Texas, he works at FanGraphs, baseball nerds' bibles, and of course, uh, he's also the host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast.
24:58
It's Paul Spoor, @spoor on Twitter. What's happening, Paulie? Not too much, Gil. It's great to see you. How, how's it going? It's going very well. Have you met my friend, uh, Wyatt before? Wyatt, Paul, Paul Wyatt.
25:07
Oh, yeah, we've texted. Yeah. Yeah, we- And, uh, yeah, I think we've at least, uh, digitally met. Oh, digitally. This is digital too, of course, I guess. Ah, I suppose. But we've texted.
25:15
We were bonding over the college football game during the break while you were talking to Captain Jack. Yeah. Paul and I, I told this story many times.
25:20
Paul and I finally met in person once, um, in a airport, you know those airport lines be- before TSA where you had to, like, do the whole back and forth- Yeah, yeah... and back and forth?
25:29
And like we say, "Hey, how you doing?" And then we had that awkward thing where we did it like three more times. [laughs] Huge. We're like, "Yeah, how you doing?" You know, it's okay, yeah.
25:35
[laughs] Those are the lines where you're like, "I don't think I'm gonna make my flight. I'm really d- nervous right now." Right. All right, uh- Thankfully we were both there early. That's right.
25:41
Um, all right, uh, my, by the way, my 1000 to 1 beach volleyball bet on the two Japanese players, Ishii and Hasegawa, lost yesterday to the Brazilians. That's why they were 1000 to 1. They lost 21-16. Right. 21-15.
25:54
That goes by the wayside. But, you know, it's 1000 to 1. It was, you know, you can imagine how much they allowed me to bet on something like that.
26:01
I did make a four, and this is a serious one now, I did make a 400 to 1 bet in baseball yesterday. I talked about it on the show yesterday, and I went ahead and I betted at MGM yesterday.
26:13
The Diamondbacks and the Royals to meet in the World Series. I don't have to have one beating the other, just to meet, 400 to 1. Do I have a puncher's chance, Paul Spoor? Of course. Of course you do.
26:28
They both gotta get in the dance, but they're both positioned well, and you're just taking a shot. Is it super likely? Of course it's not. But is it, like, harebrained? No. Right?
26:39
Like, I, I think if they're both in, you can really start getting excited about it because obviously they will have been playing well enough to establish themselves in the playoffs.
26:47
Neither is guaranteed right now, both sitting third in their respective divisions, KC and Arizona, but both interesting clubs, you know. In different points of their trajectory right now.
26:56
Arizona, of course, reached the World Series last year. KC's on the rise. But if that KC team gets in, and they're pretty whole, right?
27:03
They don't, they don't, you know, uh, lose some guys to injury on the way that are key.
27:07
If it, if it's the club that we see right now, that pitching, i- i- starting pitching at least, is one of the strongest that we're gonna see with Lugo, Reagan's, Wacha, Singer as a nice four pack out front. Singer, yeah.
27:19
Even Lorenzen as your five is capable, and of course he'll shift into the bullpen during the playoffs. And then Witte and company on the offense.
27:25
And then of course I don't really need to map out the, the Diamondbacks' situation. We saw it last year. They would need the similar thing.
27:31
Get Christian Walker back soon, hopefully, get going and, and see everything click in the playoffs.
27:36
They don't have as much firepower on the, uh, s- pitching staff side, at least as far as the rotation, but you still love lining up Gallen and Faud at least as the one-two.
27:46
The key will be, can someone like Jordan Montgomery click? Is he just figuring it out, or is this just a lost year?
27:53
Now, I'm never gonna say one guy out of 26 is your linchpin, but he's somebody that I would really start to feel great about this bet if Jordan Montgomery got clicking, 'cause then you're looking at Gallen, Montgomery, Faud as a one, two, thr- Faud as a one, two, three, and that feels a lot better.
28:07
Well, Diamondbacks getting back, uh, Merrill Kelly, uh, Ejac coming back as well too, right? So they, they have reinforcements. Eirodt. E- Eirodt, pardon me, Eirodt. That's a great point. Yeah.
28:15
He's due back today off of zero rehabs, and the only reason I mention that is 'cause it might be a little slow and go to start. But that's actually a great point. I'd, I'd forgotten about Merrill Kelly entirely.
28:25
I was gonna bring up Eduardo in a second. Yeah. But yes, if they get both of them back, that is super dynamic.
28:31
That really changes the story then, because then if you're relying on Faud as more of a four, and he's, he's really good. I like Brandon Faud quite a bit. So if he's more of your three-four type, yeah.
28:41
So them getting the reinforcements back is pretty crucial, and I had forgotten about Merrill Kelly, so my, my apologies to Merrill. No, it's all right. Merr- Merrill accepts your apology. I will accept on his behalf.
28:50
Good. Um, by the way, somehow I got the, uh, the Edwin Jackson 147 or 148 game, uh, pitched no-hitter in my head with the Diamondbacks- Yes... from years ago.
28:59
Um, okay, and the point of that is, so again, you don't, uh, those listening are like, "Ah, Diamondbacks, Royals, what are you talking about?"
29:06
My point in all that is you don't have to agree with the two teams that I wanted to make the bet on. Right.
29:11
But I think this is the year that you should absolutely be taking a shot, because I don't, man, I don't know, Paul. I don't know how you feel about this, and maybe I'm being prisoner of the moment.
29:22
I talked a little bit about this with Borichard yesterday. I just feel like more than any other year, and, and the playoffs magnify this, the way that it's structured. Anybody can get there, you just have to sneak in.
29:35
We, we saw that last year, right? Texas, Arizona, nobody had that. Nobody. Nobody had that at all. Nobody. Like, the, tho- those two teams weren't in the playoffs at points of September. Right. Right?
29:44
So it further underscores what you're talking about here. We just saw it, and now we've got a year where the titans aren't even that strong. Last year, we, we thought the titans were strong.
29:54
Them falling, whether you're talking about, um, Toro- uh, Toronto, I don't know why I went Toronto.
29:59
Whether you're talking about the Dodgers, the Braves, you know, the teams that we expected to really get there coming down, that was unexpected. This year it wouldn't be so much.
30:09
Even Baltimore, great team, but only in their second year. And we see sometimes these young teams in the playoffs, they take a few growing pains before they really come forward.
30:17
So who do you really believe in right now as, like, an ironclad titan that you would put some, uh, juice to get to the World Series?
30:24
I think maybe Philly And that's about the only team I really, really have a lot of confidence in. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, and they, they are also gonna bring back reinforcements, but have you seen that lineup?
30:33
Yeah, man. Until they bring back those reinforcements... You know, they got one back yesterday with Freddie, and oh my God- Oh... watching that ovation absolutely- It was emotional... destroyed me. Man, me too...
30:41
in, in the best way possible. Yeah. And then the Harper hug after he got the knock. So I'm so glad he's back. Obviously, his kid's health is way more important than, than playing.
30:48
But, you know, they gotta get Betts back and everything. So yes, the Dodgers are close, but Philly's the only team right now that I'm, like, scared of in the playoffs.
30:55
Every other team has a discernible flaw that you could attack. And I'm not even saying Philly's, like, unquestionably great, but I think they've got things really lined up.
31:03
Great rotation, super deep rota- uh, bullpen, and a great lineup. All right. So yeah, I agree. Pick your two teams and see what you got. Little rapid fire here to close, because, uh- Yeah...
31:13
and this, and this question is, uh, is both for Wyatt. Wyatt is an Atlanta Braves fan, but I also have a real life bet, and on a numbers game we have the VSiN Network bet on the Braves to miss the playoffs.
31:25
Uh, on the, in the VSiN contest, we have it, it's show to show futures contest. Uh, we have Atlanta to miss the playoffs at 8/1. I have them in real life at plus 750.
31:34
Wyatt is giving me the thumbs down 'cause he's a big Braves fan. Ooh, ooh. Are the Braves going to miss the playoffs, yes or no? Uh, I don't think so, push come to shove, but it is very viable, right? Yeah.
31:47
I think a lot of it's gonna come down to the return of Reynaldo Lopez. We're not getting a whole lot there right now. He is finally on the IL after being day to day for a while. Reynaldo Lopez has been so key for them.
31:57
I know that sounds weird to say, like he's the linchpin, but I kinda think he is. And again, you start talking about the depth of rotation. Sale, Fried as a one-two is pretty darn good, but where does it go from there?
32:08
Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, he's your number three in a playoff race? I don't know. Charlie Morton, okay, but then he's 100 years old, so you got the baby and the, and the grandpa.
32:15
So I don't think they will, but it's very, very, very possible. Braves one and a half games clear of the Mets. Braves in the third and final wildcard spot right now.
32:24
I will also just say, I know Paul was hyping up the Phillies. They have not been playing good as of lately. They're just two of their last eight. That is also true. Yeah. Um- That is also true...
32:32
White Sox, we went through the historicals. Worst team you've ever seen? Uh, 2003 Tigers still pretty darn bad, but- Yeah... you know, th- they start to blend together, the crappy teams, but it's up there. And just the,
32:45
just the overwhelming lack of hope, you know? Yes. I, I don't know if you saw that viral pic of, uh, Miguel Vargas yesterday looking like, "What the hell did I sign up?"
32:53
Just kinda sit and languishing in the, in the dugout there. They're, they're dreadful. They're dreadful. I will say this though, Farm System's on the rise.
33:00
They have made some good trades, including the Miguel Vargas deal. But on the field right now, you cannot see a glimmer of hope. White Sox in 2027, baby. Let's go. DFS on the way out, what do you got?
33:11
Uh, well, we got some rain to be careful of, so I know you might wanna pick on Daniel of the Angels against the Do- against the Yankees, excuse me.
33:18
But be careful with that, because that rain is looking a little bit treacherous. We do have some great pitchers up top. I like Luis Castillo against my Tigers.
33:25
Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Grayson Rodriguez, lots of studs to go for today. Seth Lugo, I know going against Boston's tough, but it's in KC. I like him as well.
33:33
Paul, aren't the Giants adorable that they've gotten to 500 again and are still in this? Don't you find them- Yes, yes they are. [laughs] They are consistently adorable. Mark Canha will lead them. You're welcome.
33:43
[laughs] Thank, thank you, Paul. Paul Sporer, everybody. Captain Jack, the Commissioner of Sports Betting. Oh, also the co-founder of Unabated. Good job. Next.
33:58
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34:52
It's Gill Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for Kelly Billin here on a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, live from Bar Canada at the D.
34:59
Bet Bash Four, Spanky reminded me it's Bet Bash Four, 'cause there was one in New Jersey, uh, continues, or actually is now in full swing today.
35:07
Lasts through, uh, I guess through, through the weekend, or at least till Saturday anyway, 'cause it's technically the 6th through the 9th.
35:14
Uh, and so we are k- you know, fortunate enough to get folks to just walk down, uh, the street to come over to the D and hang out with us, and no different right here with the guy that I like to call the Commissioner of Sports Betting.
35:27
That's his side job. He's really the co-founder of Unabated. It's the great Captain Jack Andrews. You can follow him on Twitter @CapJack2000. What's happening, man? Hey, Gill. It's a pleasure to be here. Good to see you.
35:38
Yeah. Uh, Unabated, you had a big hire this week. Would you like to, uh- Yes. Uh, we, we acquired [laughs] Justin Fan from Underdog.
35:47
So everybody that's on Twitter knows that u- when you want lineup information close to game time, who's in, who's out, Underdog_NBA_MLB.
35:57
Justin has run that for them for the past few years, uh, and now he's joining Unabated. Huge.
36:03
And he's gonna be doing some really cool things that we're gonna announce a little bit later on, uh, with us, and I think it, it's gonna be a game changer for people that kinda need to quantify how much players are worth to the spread.
36:15
Oh, which, which you and I talked about off air. I used to say this about my buddy Do- Dr. Bob, who I used to work with, Dr. Bob Stoll, that was always his strength, to me.
36:23
That is such a, such a massive Part of this whole sports handicapping puzzle. And, uh, good on you. By the way, for those who are listening are like, "Unabated? What's this Unabated stuff?"
36:34
So Jack, I turn to you and I say, uh, and I say this 'cause Rufus is coming on the show tomorrow, Rufus Peabody, your, your co-founder there at Unabated.
36:41
He is terrible at this when I ask him this question, so I want you to be better. Give the Unabated spiel for folks. All right.
36:47
So Unabated is a website which gives you tools and resources that are useful for sports bettors, savvy sports bettors. How much is a half point worth in the WNBA? How much is a half yard worth in a prop bet?
37:01
You know, is over 84 and a half minus 110 better than- Right... over 85 and a half plus 105?
37:09
We give you those answers, and then in the center is a real-time odd screen with real-time odds for dozens of books, both in the US and in faraway places. Because as you know, the sports betting ecosystem is worldwide.
37:24
It's not just- Oh, yeah... in the US. Um, that's Unabated.
37:28
I wanna shift to something that is obviously huge, uh, today, this week, when this went down, and this is a Captain Jack tweet, actually, a Cap Jack 2000, if we have that.
37:39
But you are reacting to DraftKings' announcement, uh, that they are, they are putting a 3.5% surcharge. Here it is. This is you sort of, you know, tweeting about, about the announcement.
37:51
You said, "If you bet in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, or Vermont, get a load of this.
37:56
DraftKings will be adding a surcharge to be subtracted from your net winnings to pay for their tax on gambling revenue, the money they make from losing bettors. Wow, just wow." Um, have we gotten lower than this?
38:12
You know, my shock has given way to my puzzlement as to why are they doing this? Like, why are they doing this? Because think of all the ways that you can juice the bettors. Look at same game parlays.
38:24
We don't know what the legs should pay. Everybody just says, "Oh, that's the price? Okay, that's what I'll pay."
38:30
So a lot of sports bettors are already price insensitive, and so if you just juice it into the line, you know, if it's like minus 112 when it should be minus 110, they don't notice. But when you put a surcharge- Yes...
38:42
like we all hate surcharges right there at the bottom of the bill because you used a credit card, because you, you know, a convenience fee, whatever you wanna call it.
38:51
And so it's like they know, 'cause they're human, they know people are bothered by this. Why are they doing this way? And that's what I think I'm still trying to figure out.
38:59
There's gotta be a reason why they're doing it this way instead of just juicing it. Oh, oh, well, you say that as a rational person, that there's gotta be a reason.
39:06
Part of me does wonder if they are that tone deaf, if they are that... It's, it's a, it's a strange cocktail of, of arrogance, ignorance, and I don't know what else.
39:17
Because you're absolutely right, the same game parlay is the first thing that popped in my mind. I'm like, "You could have just thrown that in." We, we already said about same game parlays on this show.
39:25
As long as you understand you're not getting the proper bang for your buck on your odds, have at it, but just know you're not.
39:31
And if they had just sort of thrown that in, the very people who play those were gonna be none the wiser. They were gonna still play them.
39:39
Now it's, I think anybody, and Elle, who was talking about this earlier, anybody can say, "Oh, I should," you know, you, you gave the great example on your Twitter of, "Here is a $10 even money bet on the Celtics," or whatever it was.
39:50
"I should be getting $10 back when this wins. Oh, wait, I didn't? I got back $9.68?" Or- Yep, yep... you know, 'cause you're turning a minus 110 into a minus 113. Um, let, let me, let me ask another question. So
40:03
it's not just the operator. This starts with an egregious tax to begin with, right? Like there's- Yeah... some bla- some of this has to go to that first, right?
40:10
So the funny thing about that is, you know, New York State has a 51% tax on gross gaming revenue. That's tickets written minus tickets cashed. It's the operator pays this.
40:20
And New York reached that 51% by asking the sports books, "How much are you willing to pay in tax rate to get into our state?" Some of them bid 64%.
40:31
DraftKings was part of a bid with FanDuel and a couple other sports books that came together with a super bid of 51%. They named their price. Yeah. And now they don't wanna pay that price. That, that points to...
40:43
And I think they think they can get the state to come down, and that's not how regulators and legislators work. They don't-- You can't demand them to do something for you. You have to kind of cajole them into doing it.
40:55
You kind of g- encourage them to do it, and they're not making progress on that. They're, the, New York has said time and again, "We're not lowering our tax rate. You better figure something else out." Yeah.
41:05
It's, there's, there's just such a, I don't know what the word is, but there, there's such a, um,
41:11
it's not a good feeling of, of, of, anything about this is a good feeling, but one of the things that sticks it in mind for me is you're sort of, you're, you're wanting to phase out the hobbyist and prey on the addict almost.
41:24
Yes. Right? Like it's... And, and by hobbyist and addict, I mean, okay, the, the sharper sports bettor is just gonna be like, "Well, illegal bookie, here I come." Right?
41:33
The very thing you claim to be wanting to pha- phase out is just going to still get, get the fuel to live.
41:39
And the per- and the person who is just, you know, the, the person who's none the wiser, right, is just going to, you know, say, "Oh, well, okay. I mean, I guess I'll still lose." Because there really is no...
41:51
If, if this were to happen, by the way, Elle who said he might, he doesn't believe that it might happen at all.
41:55
Like, by the time the first of the year gets here, where this is supposed to be implemented, cooler heads will prevail or something will be determined, and it won't happen.
42:01
Because if, if it gets implemented, is there any reason to bet at DraftKings at all? There shouldn't be, but I'm not sure they won't be the last to try this.
42:12
It's one of these things, I just feel that- And that's my other question, is it only gonna get worse? Yeah.
42:16
There's, there's gotta be forces at work that are making this happen that think this is the right way to go, and I'm not accusing anybody of, like, price fixing collusion or anything, but maybe they've talked to other operators and said, "You know, if we, if we take the bullet, first man out of the, out of the boat here, uh, you know, are you gonna follow in and, and storm the beaches with me?"
42:37
And I, I, I don't know if they have, but it seems like There's something more here. So the, the casual bettor, but Gil, you made a great point. The casual bettor is gonna become numb to this really, really quick.
42:51
And somebody said, and I think it was somebody from DraftKings said, "Well, this is good.
42:55
There's gonna be less sharp bettors now using our site, because they're price sensitive, and we wanted to get rid of the sharp bettors." You know what?
43:00
The sharp bettors, we are, "You close the door, we come in through the window," right? So they're gonna find other ways to bet at DraftKings if they need to bet at DraftKings.
43:08
Maybe just go across state lines to a- Yeah... a state that doesn't have the surcharge. They're gonna find ways to make sure they don't have to be affected by this. They won't lose any sharp bettors over this.
43:18
I didn't, I didn't mean to, like, end this up plugging like I'm doing a panel at BetBash. Spikey was kind enough to ask me to moderate the, the legislative and the, the one that Billy Walters is on.
43:28
And part of me, as I'm hearing this, I'm like, I mean, shouldn't these regulatory bodies or these, or the people who are, you know, the legislators who are ultimately responsible for the taxes, like, shouldn't the regulators, of course, I'm not talking about Nevada, but some of these newer regulators in other states, can't they have, like, some impact on this?
43:46
Like, wake up. So I was, I appeared before the Massachusetts Gaming Commission back in May, and I made a comment similar to that, and they were quick to correct me and say they have no effect on the law.
43:58
The legislators make the law, set the tax rates. Yeah. They only enforce the rules that are given to them. Oh, God. So sometimes getting the regulators on your side isn't all that is necessary.
44:09
And I ask that with sort of knowing ignorance, because the regulators will tell you themselves, "We're, we're not super educated on this subject." You're the regulators, for God's sake.
44:20
But you're right, it starts at the... It, it's... Oh, boy. Could only get worse. Captain Jack from Unabated, the commissioner of sports betting. Do you- So you say. So I... Do you wear that proudly, by the way? I do.
44:31
No, I think you should be, man. I think if there's a title, you should run for it. I will vote for you. Captain Jack, everybody. We've done all we can do. Best Bets is, is next.
44:38
Enjoy, from VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
A Numbers Game
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