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Aug 7, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:44
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:09
Hour number two of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Thanks for taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek.
0:18
Just, uh, fielding all the Braves hate. Um- We got some love here during the break, I just felt like- Jack Larkin from Sports Trade just off camera. Yeah. Yeah. He said he still loves your Braves.
0:27
I appreciate that, you know? That's it to it.
0:29
Look, I mean, you know, hey, I, I, I don't wanna say, I don't wanna wish bad upon anyone's bets, but usually when you bet against my team for, like, failure, I just, like, I, I hope you lose that bet, but win nine oth- nine other bets.
0:41
Yeah. So I hope you win all your tennis bets today. Oh, thank you very much. That I double- Yeah... entered into the, uh, website. Braves are a bit longer shot than those tennis plays today, if you know what I mean.
0:49
[laughs] So hope that... I'm sorry to- Hey, hey, you know what?
0:52
One, one of the, one of the best moments that I've, I've moved, when, since I moved to being the AP for, in the mornings for Numbers Game was your NL East, uh, win on the Braves a couple years ago.
1:02
So that was, that was pretty epic. That was pretty epic. Um, what Wyatt is referring to was when the Mets, that was supposed to be the Mets year. And Parles was my producer.
1:10
Jeff Parles, the Grover Cleveland of, of Numbers Game producers, 'cause he was producer number five and eight. And he kept telling me every morning, he goes, "I hope you lose your bet."
1:17
He goes, "I'd never say this," 'cause he's a big Mets fan, right?
1:20
But to me, it just made no sense that the Mets, that, that the Braves were such, you know, non-negligible plus money every single day, and I bet it was a dime every day- Yeah... 17 times, right?
1:32
On the B- on the Braves at plus money. And I know they had that big series against the Mets at the end of the year.
1:37
Anyway, the Braves overcame the Mets, and that was just monstrous, and I will always love the Atlanta Braves, 'cause that was one of the bigger hits ever. That, that was, that was such a fun ride. 'Cause it was that,
1:47
the second to last series, the Braves and Mets faced off against each other, and the Braves swept them. They, I mean, hit the ball so well, pitching was great. It was like a playoff atmosphere.
1:56
Both teams had over 100 wins, Gil. You know what happened? None of them made it to the NLCS. None. This is, and this is the cruelty again of the- Yeah...
2:04
baseball playoffs, which we talk about all the time, which is 162 games, and then it's either a best of three or best of five or, or, or consecutive. And so it's just the, the incongruence of all of it, right?
2:13
Where it's like, wow, we did all that to... 'Cause the way you do roster construction in baseball,
2:21
it's just you, you manage a 162 game schedule, and some teams are better at that management, and then some teams, the way that it's built can, in a short series, right, in a short spurt, you can manipulate your bullpen with your backend starters.
2:35
And so it becomes a completely different sport in a certain way. And so that's unlike, you know, yeah, basketball, the, the, you know, your rotation shortens a little bit. Um, but there's no real equivalent to that.
2:48
In football, your team doesn't change. And in baseball, the actual structure kind of does change endemically.
2:54
So it, it just becomes this, and this is why I say, right now at the beginning of August, the best bets you can make, to me, my opinion, and, and yes, we'll all have preseason bets, and we'll all, we're all excited about the NFL, and we all can't wait for contest.
3:09
But right now at this moment, baseball bets, which I will say this, I be- I bet tennis every single day, but what have been my most successful bets through the last three years beyond tennis?
3:20
Maybe even more successful have been baseball.
3:23
And even these monthly bets have, have shined through how these little spurts of 30 days, 31 days, um, in the case of the All-Star break, obviously in July fewer than that, can really manifest into a winning bet.
3:35
And right now with it as being as wide open as we, uh, as it is anyway in the standings, right?
3:39
There isn't even, usually when we go into that, quote-unquote, incongruence of a playoff versus the regular season, there are still some behemoth teams. The American League is completely wide open. Completely wide open.
3:49
Oh, yeah. I, I don't, if you ask me right now who, who's your favorite, I'm like, "Eesh." I think, 'cause you, you talked about it, it's the Yankees had such a hot start, but they've really struggled as of lately.
3:59
Hopefully kind of getting it back to even. But the Orioles have not taken that opportunity- No... that they've had to really bl- uh, blow away the AL East. They kind of blew it. Yeah. Yeah.
4:07
They, they should be up, how bad the Yankees were, you would say the Orioles should be up by six, seven games in the division, right? Oh, for sure they should have taken advantage. Yeah. Yeah.
4:16
And by the way, I would suggest, you know, and the Phillies are still built beautifully for the playoffs. But, you know, again, I made the, uh, talk about the suggestion.
4:22
I made the Arizona Diamondbacks to, to play the Kansas City Royals in the, in the s- World Series bet at 400 to 1. Now, there's gonna be people who hear that like, "Oh, you're crazy." Really? Am, am I crazy?
4:34
By, by the way, watch it be the Yankees and the Dodgers [laughs] come, come October. [laughs] This'll be the year where it actually does happen that way.
4:40
But this is, it is a complete free-for-all, and once we get to October, if you can just get in, obviously you gotta get into the, to the pl- to the, uh, postseason tournament, but if you can just get in,
4:50
oh my God, it's like you're holding on these long shot tickets.
4:54
And by the way, the same, you know, the same outfit, the same sportsbook that gave me all kinds of trouble making a bet on Karolína Muchová, where I had to bet it 14 times for her to win her quarter at the Olympics, uh, didn't give me a dime on that, but right, they, they gave me a nickel, right?
5:11
So it's like, oh, you took a big, you took a big, quote-unquote, bet on this. Not really a big bet, but you know what I mean.
5:16
You m- you mention th- that's a very good possibility that both those teams can face off against each other. This is year three of the expanded playoffs.
5:23
Three out of the four teams that have made the World Series have been wildcard teams. Yeah. Rangers last year, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and then the Astros are just the lone exception. So I,
5:34
I, it almost brings up to another question, Gil, and I've watched the Atlanta Braves lose, uh, back to back years in the NLDS.
5:39
Same thing with the Dodgers is you kind of wanna play in the wildcard round, you know, so you keep up that, uh, the consistency of playing against- Too, too small of a sample size- Yeah...
5:48
to, uh, to answer that with any sort of- Mm-hmm... you know, definitive, um, you know, gravitas. Because it's, it's just like there's, there's no, there's no way to really know.
5:58
I mean, ideally you skip it, then you still play well. You're playing fewer games. Your pitching is set up.
6:02
'Cause those wildcard teams, the big problem is that their pitching is not necessarily set up once they get into it. It's just worked out beautifully, uh, thus far.
6:10
The, the point being, again, that every year our human brains, our flawed human brains, go right back to, like, last year.
6:17
We, we did have Steve, Steve, uh, on Twitter was s-, you know, he did have the Rangers to beat the Diamondbacks, which he admits was complete luck, but he had them 175 to 1 to, to beat them in an exacta last year.
6:27
But most human beings, 99.9% of human beings, if you told them, "Oh yeah, the Diamondbacks and the Rangers are gonna be in the World Series," they would've laughed you out of the, you know, out of wherever you were, whatever room you t- you told them that in.
6:38
And then this year, the same thing. I'm just saying, would it shock you if any of these teams... Would it shock you if the Guardians played the Brewers? It shouldn't.
6:47
Would it shock you if the Rangers got back and played the Diamondbacks in a back-to-back? It shouldn't. Or, or another team, it's how bad they were at the beginning of the year, the Astros.
6:58
Like, it wouldn't shock me if they just ran through the entire AL again and, and get back to the World Series. It wouldn't shock anybody.
7:03
After how bad they started this year, it looked like, "Oh, this is finally the year that the, the kinda quote-unquote dynasty is done for Houston," and they've battled back. I mean, they almost had a no-hitter yesterday.
7:13
Ugh, down to the final out. Wow. Then a walk, and then Corey Seager goes yard. Oh, so close for Framber. Um, so here's the deal. The...
7:23
And by the way, the Guardians are the team, by the way, that I would say are the one that is least set up roster construction-wise for the post-season, right?
7:32
Their Achilles heel is their starting pitching, and that's, yes, it's bullpen heavy, that that should be your strength in, in the post-season, but you do still, like the old school need of having a good front line rotation is still tried-and-true, and, and they just don't have that.
7:46
So it'll be interesting to see what happens with them.
7:48
Uh, I do have, I was mentioning this about, uh, NFL pre-season week one, which I did wanna get into here before Fezzik shows up, which is, um, I mentioned again the games that have really low totaled totals on the board.
8:00
Panthers-Patriots, which was the first week one NFL pre-season game out the box. Um, Lions-Giants, Eagles-Ravens, Commanders-Jets, Seahawks-Chargers, and Cowboys-Rams.
8:09
That's a six-pack of games, all of who- all of which have totals of 35 or 34 and a half or 34. Um, the three team 10-point teaser, which we never recommend under, you know, in a normal week of the NFL season.
8:24
You knock those totals down. I asked Jason Weingarten off air, by the way. I was like, "Hey," um, I, I, he was like, "Is this a three team 10-point, uh, teaser week for you?" He goes, "Absolutely. Of course."
8:36
It's sort of the, the annual tradition, and these will get home. Maybe you wanna round robin them. All it takes is for one to torpedo it.
8:41
But if you can get above, again, if any of these games go under those numbers, you just have to sort of tip the cap. The other thing is based on sides.
8:48
Are there any sides that I'm looking to bet in week one in the NFL pre-season? I am not a huge pre-season bettor. I know there are a lot who love it. It really is an information gathering handicap.
8:59
What are coaches saying? Um, what are they, what are they planning in terms of having their first unit out there, specifically their first quarterbacks out there?
9:09
And really it comes down a lot to quarterback depth charts as well. Now, Humans, who we talked about with fast food earlier, he does more than fast food, I should, uh, hope you know that.
9:19
Uh, he did a great piece on quarterback depth charts at vsin.com as well, and I agree with one thing he said. I actually didn't see this.
9:26
I was going through the charts, and I was like, one team really st- stood out, and then I went to his f- his top, and he actually said this, which is the Cleveland Browns quarterback depth chart.
9:36
So Deshaun Watson, who knows if he plays at all in the pre-season a- at all.
9:40
But Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, say what you will about him as a viable starting quarterback, I know he had to start some games last year in the NFL.
9:48
But Jameis Winston, DTR, and Tyler Huntley are your two, three, and four in whatever order they end up in the Cleveland Browns quarterback rotation, um, or the quarterback depth chart, I should say.
9:59
Green Bay, who they are playing this y- this week, Jordan Love, if we see him, it's probably for 10 snaps-ish. Matt LaFleur said that, that Jordan Love will play, but like I said- Yeah...
10:10
it's probably gonna be for a drive. Drive, probably no more than that. Their depth chart is Sean Clifford, Michael Pratt, Jacob Eason. Cleveland is favored by three.
10:20
Um- And I will say sh- I, I will play the Browns there. I really will.
10:23
And I will say Sean Clifford, uh, was getting a lot of the one snaps with Jordan Love's hold in, and a lot of the stuff that I read was he's throwing a lot of picks.
10:31
I think he's kinda a little bit wild with the ball, just trying to find, uh, his rhythm.
10:35
So I, yeah, I would agree that the, the Browns [laughs] Browns quarterback room, Gil, you've got four guys who have started NFL games and have started for, uh, you know, a decent amount of time.
10:44
Um, pet peeve, you just called it the quarterback room. Have you noticed how everybody now calls it the quarterback room and the running back room and the wide receiver room? Rooms inside of buildings.
10:54
Wishnev was going off on this. Why is everybody now saying it's a room ins- uh, inside the building, in this room? It's the, it's the worst sort of group think thing ever happening.
11:02
Well, well, I used to work for UNLV football. Yeah. So when they built the, the football building, each, each position has their own little room. Back room. Mm-hmm.
11:10
It's like one day- Even says, even says on the little thing... one day broad- one broadcaster said, "Oh, he's great in space," and then the entire broadcasting community said afterwards...
11:18
Uh, the other thing is, um, we talk about how John Harbaugh has had this great success.
11:22
Remember they won all those games in a row till they lost to Washington the pre-season last year, and everybody was like, "John Harbaugh is a, uh, pre-season juggernaut." You know who else is? Mike Tomlin.
11:33
Inter- He is a pre-season juggernaut with the, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers. I think 18, two and one. I will check on this. I'll give it to you after the break, the exact numbers on Mike Tomlin during the pre-season.
11:44
It's pretty startling as well. Steve Fezzik, the quickest way to be a successful bettor next on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:02
Back on The Numbers Game live at Bar Canada at the D. Bar Canada, The Barrage. It's Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for Kelly Bidlin.
12:10
Uh, I got a text here from a, uh, Steve Fezzik who said, uh, on his text, who wrote I should say more properly. He said, uh, "Fast food hack you must do. Always customize your order so they make it fresh.
12:22
Always order your Big Mac without pickles, fries with no salt. Some examples." If only he were here live in the flesh to talk about this.
12:30
There he is, ladies and gentlemen, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, the great Steve Fezzik. How you doing, sir? Well, Matt Umans is the foremost expert on fast food.
12:42
But you know, you put out 50 picks, you're gonna get a couple of them wrong, you know, inevitably. [laughs] So I'm, I'm here, I'm here to clean it up a little bit. What are your... Do you...
12:50
You said off air that you wanted to mention the two that you dislike the most. Yeah, I'm not gonna talk about winning today. Bad news bears, the Yankee coach. I'm gonna talk about losing, all right?
13:01
And these are the two biggest losing fast food places. Fatburger, the last great American, um, hamburger stand. Uh, no, not at all. Look at the price point. It's no different than any other of the burgers.
13:15
I was in Tahoe, 7.99 for fries, 14.99 for a basic one-third pound hamburger. Who pays that? Fatburger belongs at the bottom of the list just from a pricing perspective. 2:00 in the morning, got a Fatburger.
13:30
I think you're supposed to get it at 2:00 in the morning. I think that's the point of it. Not in Tahoe. They close at 10:00. What's the, what's the other one? Starbucks. Oh, yeah. Starbucks.
13:38
But that's its own little category, right? You know, the problem with Starbucks is it's supposed to be, like, a niche-y, like, really upscale, and they microwave their breakfast sandwiches. It's terrible.
13:47
It's absolutely terrible. Three times worse than an Egg McMuffin at McDonald's for three times the price. What dumbo eats food at Starbucks? If you like the coffee, get the coffee. Stop with the food, all of it.
13:57
I've had it all because I got a $10 free food comp. We're aware. It's all awful. Uh, Matt Umans' top 50, uh, fast food rankings at vsin.com.
14:05
Um, I agree with you, but do you agree with me that the, the McDonald's breakfast thing sort of, sort of hovers above all of this? I- if it was just a breakfast only survey- Yeah...
14:15
uh, Portillo's, as good as it is, you know, just disappears. McDonald's is good food. It's gr- it's just good food. [laughs] All right, that's, that's what you, you dislike. What's your favorite of all of it?
14:25
You know, I'll go with Portillo's. You will. And I'll, I'll, I'll... In-N-Out Burger for value just because, and the service because they pay their employees $2 more per, per, um, [smacks lips] uh, hour.
14:34
You are getting great service at In-N-Out Burger, whereas you go to Popeyes Chicken and, and you'll be convinced to short America, that we are just, you know, doomed- [laughs]...
14:43
trying to get food at Popeyes, as good as their chicken sandwich is. In-N-Out, I'm gonna say this as a California guy. In-N-Out's kind of overrated. Mm. It, it is.
14:51
I'm telling you why, 'cause In-N-Out has this thing where it's like there's a secret menu, and so it's kind of, like, cool to order from the secret menu, so it got a lot of cachet from that. Um, the fries are subpar.
15:03
And then if you're in the Bay Area, there was another, like, late night competing burger spot in Oakland, Nations- Mm...
15:08
which is actually better burgers than In-N-Out, for those in the Bay- The, the, the fries are subpar. I, I agree with you. Yeah. Yeah.
15:13
Even though they're fresh, they, they must just not be bad for you because they don't taste good enough. But the big thing is the burger. Burger's just, is phenomenal, and also an underrated thing is the milkshake.
15:22
I enjoy the, their milkshakes. A little milkshake add-on. Yeah. Okay. All right, so that's... So you wanted to start with the, the ones you dislike the most.
15:30
The hack, before we move on, 'cause I wanna get to what you, what I've been teasing is the quickest way to become a winning sports bettor. Um, let's, let's start there. Let's move on from that.
15:40
Let's start there with that, which is... 'Cause we were talking about, okay, you've made appearances. Obviously, you're on with Patrick on Sharp Money all the time, Patrick and Dustin.
15:47
Um, and we were talk- we've talked about so many different things on this show when you've come on, and one of the things that
15:54
I don't know if you just k- kind of get sick of it, I can almost sense the frustration, where it's like there is a very
16:02
direct line to becoming a successful sports bettor, and sometimes it's not as complicated as people think. Spot on. All you gotta do is be good at one thing. All right?
16:11
Now, poker players understand this, so they, they go ahead and instead of just playing no-limit poker, they expand out.
16:18
Maybe they'll play open-faced Chinese or something a little more obscure, and they just get great at that game.
16:22
So I would emphasize if you're struggling to win, heck, pick out something like a runs, hits, errors prop on baseball and you are gonna be as good at that run, runs, hits, errors prop as anybody.
16:34
You're gonna know everything about all the teams and which teams don't get a lot of hits, but they get runs like the Dodgers, et cetera, and you're gonna win if you just specialize in one item.
16:45
Now, I like betting pre-season baseball for the season wins and for some of the prop bets. It was just, Gilly, it was just, uh, 15 months ago, we were at the Raider Cafe. Yes, we were. And- With Wishnev...
16:57
dialing it back, and they had a prop there, will a team lose 100 games? Now, historically, there have been years where nobody has lost 100 games, but the, the game has changed, and that's reflected in the season wins.
17:10
Several teams are favored now to not win 100 games. So 15 months ago, I literally, I said, "Todd, put the pretzel bites down. You gotta keep betting this.
17:21
You know, yes, there will be a team that is going to lose 100 games," and I think there was three teams that year. Uh, one team lost like 108. One team lost 105. Literally by the end of April, it was a guaranteed winner.
17:32
White Sox might lose it by the end of the month. And the White Sox this year- Yeah... the g- same sort of thing. Longest losing streak.
17:39
One book put up a 10 and a half, which team w- w- not which team, but what will the longest, longest losing streak for any team be? 10 and a half, the over, was like a 90% bet. You know, it was just so strong.
17:51
You brought up something with this, so obviously their NFL season win total's pre-flop to bet into.
17:55
You brought up s- you brought up something off air with me, or via text, that I have been saying about the MLB, the Major League Baseball, season win total pool when I used to write the manifestos at vsin.com about MLB season win totals.
18:10
Please explain. Yeah, so- The average for a season win number should be the number of games you play divided by two. But in football, it actually should be a little less than that because overtime's only last 10 minutes.
18:22
You're gonna have ties, one or two of them per year. So instead of 8.5, the average should come out to be 8.4. But it's not 8.4 because of irrational exuberance. Everybody's like, "Oh, the Rams are a sleeper team.
18:35
Oh, yeah, you know, Houston, Detroit, watch out for those teams." And so they all, all these teams wind up a little bit higher than they should be.
18:42
Like, even the Carolina Panthers are getting steamed through the roof versus their opener. So the current average is 8.58. I just punched it in. This is on Westgate's numbers. I know you love your Westgate. Love. Yes.
18:53
Uh, the number should be 8.4. Sounds trivial,.18 difference, who cares? What turns out, that's like a.2 difference, which this is virtually what it is.
19:02
It's like the difference between being the house versus being the player. So if you- Yes...
19:06
bet every, without even shopping, you just went to Westgate and played every single team under, just versus their numbers, you're a slight favorite to actually win. So think about that.
19:15
That's just turning your brain off. But it, what, what, again, so let's do the MLB equivalent.
19:21
So when I used to do the whole season win totals thing, if you take, you know, there are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, there's 162 games per, per team.
19:29
Uh, that's a grand total of, quick math, boop, boop, boop, boop, boop, 2,430 total Major League Baseball games. I got that right? I, I assume so. [laughs] 2,430 Major League Baseball games.
19:42
When you add up the pre-flop season win totals, regardless of book, it would be anywhere between 24-45 to 24-65, and you think to yourself,
19:55
first of all, the first thought ought to be, and the way I used to phrase it was, your instinct therefore ought to, ought not to be to have a spade of overs. That's how I would say it.
20:05
So if your, your instinct ought to always be the other direction because it's already shaded, and you said it at the beginning, which is the human brain is wired for optimism, right? Absolutely.
20:17
We're wi- even in game totals, right? The average bettor will be like, "Over. Oh, this game's gonna go over the total." And so the instinct ought to be counter to that because it's already built in.
20:26
Not to mention the homers. I mean, how many people bet the Chicago Cubs for, like, the last 50 years? The Cubs are gonna win the pennant- Right... and they're gonna go over, you know.
20:33
They're so loyal, the fans, you know, in Wrigleyville. But what's so, and this is without shopping, and there are disparities. Like, you know, this year, uh, Tampa Bay, I saw a season win 81 and another shop at 83.
20:45
Same time, exactly the same moment, so no market timing at all. So boom, I'm like, "Well, I'm gonna play the middle.
20:50
I'm gonna go over 81 and under 83, but I'm gonna get me some more under 83 because I know the unders probably have more value." So I max bet the under 83, and I do a half a bet on the over 81.
21:01
I promised, uh, the Mike Tomlin trend here in the, uh, preseason. Pittsburgh has won its last six preseason games straight up at ATS. This is courtesy of Steve Makinen, by the way, at vsyn.com.
21:12
Steve Makinen does such a great job. And we are not a trends show, but I kind of like trends in a preseason because there's reason for them.
21:21
Uh, Pittsburgh has won its last six preseason games straight up at ATS, and is 18 and four straight up and 16 and six against the spread dating to 2017.
21:31
Steve Fezzik, would you agree that when it comes to NFL preseason and head coaches, that there may actually be something to those? Oh, absolutely. So ob- obviously, um, guys like Harbaugh really wanna win.
21:44
Now there's two of them, so we'll see [laughs] if the other guy- By the way, Jim Harbaugh's, I went back and looked- Uh-huh...
21:48
it's funny you mentioned that, uh, his four years in San Francisco, two and two, three and one, three and one, two and two, straight up in preseason. And- By the way, the wins were blowouts usually...
21:57
and of course, famously, McVay doesn't care, you know, w- when, when he plays.
22:00
So what's interesting is that Pittsburgh was a two-point favorite against Houston, and then Houston's gonna play starters that, I don't know if that means three plays, you know, who knows? Yeah.
22:09
And now the line's down to pick 'em. I will predict that that's the low point on the Men of Steel. And if you wanna get in, I would invest in Pittsburgh at pick right now.
22:17
I wanna dive more into that because I'm, I'm curious how, how deep you get into preseason betting, and if it is, I, I think you're intimating that it is, a completely different discipline for you. Maybe it's not.
22:28
Maybe you do some of the same things in the, uh, in the regular season. The only back-to-back winner of the then Hilton Super Contest, which of course became the Westgate Super Contest, uh, thereafter.
22:38
It's Steve Fezzik on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:00
Back on The Numbers Game live from Bar Canada at the D. Lovely, majestic, beautiful downtown Las Vegas. It's The Numbers Game.
23:07
Gil Alexander, wide top jacket for Kelly Bidlin and Steve Fezzik, kind enough to, uh, hang out with us. Uh, I have worn the, uh, the bad second button button-down shirt in honor of Mrs.
23:18
Fezzik, who hates that, uh, it, it sort of butterflies on me. She does not like that. She's like, "That Gilly's, like, showing, showing some skin there." Yeah.
23:27
Well, it's just where the laptop, 'cause if I'm up here, no one cares, right? What's, what's bad about the second but- or is it just, it's just too low? It's just in a spot on this shirt where it looks like it. Yeah.
23:34
And then when the laptop cuts it off, you have no idea where it goes. It could go down to my belly button for all you know. He looks like Carrie Casanova over there, you know?
23:42
[laughs] We get tweets that beat to the book. Brian M., uh, talking about the conversation we had with Will Hill earlier about the, uh, the rain-outs.
23:49
Not the rain-outs, but the games that start and then get delayed just a couple innings in. He says, "My understanding," Brian M.
23:56
does, "My understanding from having worked at Fenway is the team has full autonomy to start the game. Once the game starts, it lies with the umps." Hmm. I think that is correct.
24:04
Not sure, I'm, I'm sure he knows, having worked at Fenway, not sure if this has changed post-COVID. Also heard there are heavy fines if the game is canceled first three innings. Oh, interesting. Heavy fines.
24:14
The numbers, guys. Hi, Gil. Obviously, Youmans isn't a teenage boy, but if he were, I can assure you number one would be Raising Cane's. The kids are going nuts for it. I don't get it.
24:23
I agree with Matt, who says the, uh, tenders are average and the fries fizzle. I'm not about the fries, but the tenders are pretty darn good. I agree with that. Yeah. Good sauce, too. Yeah.
24:34
Mike Stacks, "With how sharp Rufus is, does he have any thoughts about the DK 3% [laughs] charge?" Listen, I'd love to know Rufus's thoughts, but Rufus didn't show up this morning.
24:42
I can handle this, Sir Tax, if you'd like. Someone check on Rufus. Health, health- [laughs]... check on Rufus. Wellness check. Wellness check. Everything's okay? Uh, couple more. We- we'll get to you on that.
24:51
John Blom, "You, Fezzik, Drew, Crack all together will be the top handicapper room in the game. I have that higher power ranked than the Browns quarterback room or the Dolphins wide receiver room.
25:00
[laughs] Prime time, really looking forward to seeing Rufus join you in the legendary handicapper room this AM." Does the room thing bother you as much as it bothers me? Quarterback room, everybody's saying that now.
25:09
I kinda like it. Oh, drives me nuts. I invented it. No. Did you? [laughs] Just kidding. I'm only, I'm, uh, you can tell the story.
25:15
What is- So Fezzik, Fezzik claims to have inven- You know, it's the, uh, Austin Powers thing where his, his, what was it? His father claims to have invented the question mark.
25:22
What, what do you, what do you say that you, it originated with you? Pre-flop betting. Stop it. I have referred to pre-flop betting, and back up the truck.
25:30
If you got a big bet, you back up the truck, and I've been doing that for 30 years. How long have you been saying pre-flop? Oh, 20 years. Pre-flop, I just... Wow. Okay. I'm gonna have to find documentation for it though.
25:41
Please, I wanna, I wanna see full documentation. Yeah, fair enough. Um, what about that 3% DraftKings tax? You have anything good to say about it? No.
25:48
[laughs] Uh, uh, there's a, uh, you know, all my references are, like, from the '80s. So there's a movie, The Running Man, with Schwarzenegger, all right?
25:56
And, and, and, um, the game show host, um, is the villain, and he comes out, and his name's Killian, and then they go, "Killian is lying to you."
26:05
And so when they say, "It's a nominal fee, it's 3.2%," no, it's not a 3.2% increase. It's a 3.2 fee on not just the vigorish, but on what you're wagering.
26:14
So what it translates to being, we have laid minus one 10, an extra $10 in vig on $100 bet for 50 years.
26:21
Since the gambling tax in 1976 or whenever it was dropped from 10% to 2%, the federal tax, it has been minus one 10, $10. And now DraftKings wants to charge $13.60 instead of $10.
26:35
That is a 36% increase overnight that they wanna implement. There is no way any bettor is going to be good with this, and there's no way other operators are going to match it. It is, um, it is gonna be a failure.
26:49
D- Wait, don't waste all your money. You're just gonna have to change it back. It's not gonna fly. Uh, I hope you're right.
26:54
I'm not so sure you're right because, as I said yesterday, I wonder if it's just the tip of the iceberg. I wonder if it, if everybody jumps on board.
27:02
Everyone won't jump on board because there'll be more than- Not everyone, but some others... operators outside of the US will make a enormous comeback where all of a sudden, you know what?
27:12
The thing we talked- That's the biggest point of everything. When you say operators, you, you're not referring to European.
27:16
I'm referring to illegal, uh, you know, the local bookie, offshore, whatever, uh, which by the way, still exists for those who don't know.
27:23
But I'm just saying the very thing that you are, you claim to have set out to eradicate is the very thing you prop up. [laughs] Period. Uh, that's the whole story with it. And we're talking fast food, right?
27:34
And Portillo's is, Portillo's is different from McDonald's, it's different from Starbucks, it's different from Fatburger. They all have their own burger, all right?
27:42
This is, like, it, no, it's, it's exactly the same thing. I'm betting Minnesota plus four and a half against Las Vegas, and it's, it's the same product.
27:51
So when it's an identical product, consumers are gonna go where it's cheaper when they go ahead and just have to click on a button. I asked, uh, Captain Jack this yesterday.
27:59
Would you ever have a reason to bet there anymore? Like, could you ever?
28:03
I said, uh, my example is if they had a futures price at DraftKings that was so much better on something you liked than in another place, maybe then. But even then, even then, Steve, I'd feel dirty about it.
28:19
Now, I'd be the opposite. I'd be like, uh, famously, Kenny Houston, famous blackjack player, he got barred at the Westward Ho.
28:25
They had a $200 limit, and they, they kicked his butt out, and he was so angry at, at their business practices that he literally said it in his book, Million Dollar Blackjack, "It is time," this is the Westward Ho, "It's time to pound the Ho."
28:38
[laughs] He was like, "Go in there-" Wait a minute... "get the coupon books, save the, save it for the $200 max bets that you don't lose on 22. You double on 11, you catch the ace, use it, then it's worth $400.
28:48
We're gonna annihilate these guys because I'm so angry with their business practices."
28:52
It won't surprise me if there aren't some people that are upset enough to, like, make it their life's mission to, like, send in the, um, the advantage players to get these guys for, because they're, they're, they're just obviously just taking advantage of the consumer.
29:05
Apologize for the stream of consciousness, but when we have Fezz here, this is probably the way to go with things. So you just brought up blackjack. You were talking poker off air. Some poker hack you wanted to share?
29:14
Yeah, nobody does this. I, I don't know why. So a, a lot of times when you come in, you, you can't come in until you're in the big blind, all right?
29:21
And you're in a, at a disadvantage in the big blind, so if you're playing a one three no-limit game, you can buy in for anywhere from 100 to 300, and all the good players and all the decent players buy in for 300 typically.
29:31
It's a mistake, actually, because when you're playing in the blinds, you gotta play the big blind, the small blind. You don't want a big stack, you, because you're, you're out of position. You want a small stack then.
29:40
So what you should do, just buy in for 100 when you're in the big blind. I know this is a little thing, but for the rest of your life it is gonna add up. Play the $100 stack for two hands.
29:48
You get a pair of jacks, someone raises, re-raise, um, some callers, you just shove. It's easy. It's an easy decision versus it being really hard to play that hand with a big stack.
29:57
And then when you get the button and you get to act last and you get position, then go ahead and go up to $300. I do it every time.
30:02
I've never seen anybody else ever do that hack, but it makes complete mathematical sense. As humans is to fast food, you are to these kinds of things. Yes. Period.
30:11
Um, I think that's on the LSAT, by the way, that kind of, those, those kind of problem solving. I'm a good- Yeah... um, standardized test taker. I'm sure you are. By the way, your son is even better than you?
30:20
Five on his AP Calculus exam. He's 13 years old. Bro. Oh my God. All right, let's get to- 13 in AP Calculus? Yes. The kid has a big brain.
30:29
Wow, I was, I was happy just to have, only have to do one semester of math in college. I was like, "Thank goodness, I'm done." [laughs] Could you imagine, could you imagine if Fezzik had a dumb kid? Could you?
30:36
That would be the most ridicul- I would, first of all, I would love to watch Fezzik deal with that. That would [laughs] What do you think- That's funny.
30:43
And then Wishneb, when he, wh- wh- when, I still beat my son at tennis sometimes, and he's like, "That's because Johnny has no idea what he's doing. He's just a dumb kid."
30:49
[laughs] He can't, he can't, he, he has a stupid strategy and he doesn't know what to do, how to take advantage of it. A dumb kid he is not. Um, all right, so back to the football thing then.
30:59
So you are, again, and this is for, this is more macro than it is about specific games, but so your entire pre-season strategy then can be reduced to what? Looking for numbers that are just wrong.
31:13
That I, I look for books to put up, um, product nobody else is putting up. Uh, so let me give an example. So the MGM did this, all right?
31:20
So they, they had, uh, they had a match up, Notre Dame against Michigan, who is gonna win more games, all right?
31:26
And, and people are very down on Michigan, so people like bet Michigan under nine and a half, and they're even playing them a little bit under nine.
31:32
Now, unfortunately, Notre Dame has their own problems, but their season wins at 10. So I've got a Notre Dame team, if you look at their schedule, they already got eight wins automatic, eight to nine wins.
31:41
Michigan has, like, one less win. Every one of their games is like, for these teams, is like eight wins, and now Michigan's gonna lose to Ohio State, and they're probably gonna lose to Oregon.
31:50
They're probably gonna win nine games, and Notre Dame's probably gonna win 10, so, like, Notre Dame may only be a one-game favorite against Michigan, but their schedules are so obvious and set in stone, it's gonna take an act of God for Michigan to win more than Notre Dame.
32:03
So, and, and Notre Dame was, like, -150, so it was just a, a tremendous bet that you could make versus the opener. I think it was cheaper than -150 at the open. And this requires no genius is the point.
32:13
You're just doing the work. And it's- You're just looking... it's a great point. So anyone, anyone, if you s- if, if I said, "I need you to make a bet- Yeah... Notre Dame against Michigan," and set a line, okay?
32:21
Now, I know the Hall of Fame bookmakers came up with a different line, but I could tell you any sharp bettor that is analyzing everything, it w- is gonna come to the same conclusion. It's just a matter of doing the work.
32:32
Leave my Mich book alone, okay? Um, w- so but, but when it gets to N- [laughs] And when it gets to NFL preseason, do you do then the similar thing- No... just in terms of game lines? What are you doing?
32:44
No, because it's complicated. It's so much information-driven. So you have a situation where Vegas is gonna play, you know, both their quarterbacks trying to- All information, yeah...
32:54
and, and, and, and, and so because of that, they have to evaluate, you know, O'Connell versus, you know, Minshew, and- So is that something that interests you to get involved in because it actually requires a different sort of skill set?
33:04
E- exactly, and I'm not good at that skill set, so because of that, and you have to be, like, trolling all the Twitter, you know, the, the beat writers and the like, so I am a- Well, you're a good, you're a good Twitter troll, just not that way.
33:13
[laughs] I am, I'm an aggregator. I am an aggregator. So I'm a- I thought that was your greatest strength, dude. [laughs] I'm a top-down guy. Yeah.
33:19
So I, I use other people and their information, and then I make their- [laughs] I see. It's like I spend too much time on Twitter. Ah, yes. I know, I know. No.
33:26
But y- but it is interesting because that's just not something that your brain is that interested in doing. Exactly. You can't do everything. Exactly. And I totally, I totally respect that.
33:35
I get it, whereas others swear by it.
33:37
Like, "Hey, I'll spend my whole day on Twitter finding out what the, uh, how many s- you know, snaps the starter will take in a quarterback, in a, uh, week one preseason game," for instance.
33:45
More with Steve Fezzik on the other side. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:49
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34:47
Gil Alexander, Wyatt Topchik in for Kelly Veselin, and Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back, uh, Hilton Super Contest winner there has ever been. Did you use a proxy back then?
34:56
No, back then you just- You just rolled up... I don't think there were proxies. You just- I don't think there were... you go- you had to go in person, baby. You'd make your bets in person. What years did you win those?
35:04
Uh- Where there were no proxies... 2007. 2008 I won the... No, 2008, 2009, won the South Point twice and won the West Gate twice. You won the South Point twice and the West Gate twice? Yeah. 2008, 2009.
35:16
In 2009, I actually [laughs] this is... Okay, angle shoot, I tied for first with both my entries in the South Point, so I count it as a double win. Oh, this guy. This guy.
35:26
Wait, when did Tony Salinas win his c- super contest? Guy, I loved Tony Salinas with the cowboy hat and the like. Yeah. I think I- Is he still with us? I don't k- I do not know. I th- I haven't seen him.
35:35
I don't think so. Yeah. I haven't seen him in a while, but he would wear, I mean, he wore- Yeah... like, in the rodeo, he'd fit right in. Yeah, it's perfect. What, what year did he win? Before you, right? Yeah. Yeah.
35:43
It was before, yeah. Okay. Did he win back-to-back? No, you're the only back-to-back. Only one. Do you wear that with pride?
35:48
Not only do I wear it with pride, I got my Circuit Sur- Survivor jacket now, so, like, I c- I can style, like, once a year, you know, because I had a piece, you know, of Greg Jones, you know, ab- Yes... about that.
35:58
I w- wound up with one-sixth of him. Yeah. You know, so they come up, a guy comes up to me. He's like, "Do you want, do you want a Survivor jacket?" I'm like, "Heck yeah, beautiful," and I'm feeling so good about me.
36:07
And he's like, "And h- and here's what, yeah, I need your credit card. You gotta, [laughs] you gotta pay. You don't get it." [laughs] I'm like, "Okay, I'll pay." [laughs] How many, uh, millions...
36:16
You do Circuit Millions as well. Yeah. How many Millions entries will you have? How many Survivor entries will you have? I'll, I'll certainly have the max of the Millions, five.
36:24
So the Survivor depends on whether the Chiefs win Thursday night. Now, that sounds crazy. I like what you're doing here.
36:29
So what's gonna happen is some people are gonna enter Thursday, and they're not gonna play Baltimore because Baltimore's a, a 2.8 point dog. They're gonna play Kansas City, or they're not gonna use Kansas City.
36:38
So if Kansas City wins, now I actually have a negative, um, rake. Um, I have a rake against me because some people are gonna start 1 and 0, and I'm only 0 and 0. I don't really wanna play.
36:49
I know that sounds trivial, but that's significant. But if Baltimore beats Kansas City, now all those people who played Kansas City, a lot of them- Dunzo... they're dunzo.
36:58
Their monies are in the pool, and they can re-up, but that's still extra money into the pool, which makes it, like, a f- a, a free-for-all to ma- make...
37:06
Not only will I sign up for 10 Survivors, I'll get my wife to sign up for 10. So what I'm hearing is you will play zero Survivors if Kansas City wins the opening Thursday night.
37:15
I should play zero, but I'll play a couple just because it's so fun Oh, I was just gonna say. Okay, I was gonna say It's so fun.
37:20
Like, uh, the question was are you that much of a robot that you would actually play zero versus 10 based on the outcome of that game? No, you still play two.
37:26
Well, well the thing is I can just, as an investor, I can get involved- Yeah... down the road, you know, and get a good deal on people, you know, in, in October, so I can always get involved later. Yeah.
37:35
The average player who is coming in who is not, who is, who is a mere mortal, who is not Steve Fezzik, and asks the question, "What is the optimal number of survivor entries I should play?"
37:45
I suppose you've already answered that with your strategy, that that's how they should play it. Is that what you're gonna say? Yeah, but let's assume that, that, that, that didn't exist. Okay.
37:52
That everyone had to enter by Thursday. Yes. I would say the first entry is- What's the max number of entries in Survivor? 10, I believe. 10, yeah. So the first entry is worth the most.
38:01
However, I would argue that clearly the second entry still has positive expectations. There's gonna be some people that sleep in. Heck, I'm still looking for Rufus. I'm still looking for Todd. I don't see them.
38:11
Um, so the, the, the, the point is is at, at each, each entry is slightly diminishing utility. Slight, okay? Because you can't just play the same path for every single team. No. So because of that, everyone's different.
38:22
Maybe it's three that's optimal, maybe it's seven. It all depends. This has always been my point, that I do believe, right, it's a tough thing 'cause m- some people's heads explode.
38:31
I know it's not in Derek's best interest for me to say this, but I do think that the notion of, oh, you gotta play all 10, or you gotta play seven, like I don't know. You see, you only playing one ultimately optimally.
38:43
I get your point though, but it, it's, it, there is a dimin- that, that's the better way to say it. It diminishes as these, as you add entries.
38:50
A, a great example, and you know I play advantage parlay cards, so if you say I can play one seven-team or I'm playing my seven best teams.
38:57
Now I'm gonna play, if I play 20 seven-teamers, I'm not gonna just play the same, you know, seven teams. I gotta diversify. I'll play some of the same picks- Yeah...
39:04
you know, like, but you know, I'll, I'll go ahead and diversify. I did wanna mention, I did- I need to hear a number though in the end before you move on. What, so what is there a number?
39:10
Is there a static number for you? Four and a half. [laughs] Four and a half, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah. Go with, uh, full money for four and then- [laughs]... go to the counter with half the money and see what happens.
39:20
Um- Yeah... I wanted to give a big thank you to Todd. I pick on Todd all the time, but like- Todd Wischnev, everybody, who we're referring to, yes...
39:25
it's been two years since we had this weight challenge, and I was right around like 230, and this morning I was 204. So, uh, Todd has made me such a healthier person- Yeah...
39:36
just, you know, h- doing that, that contest, and we battled all summer. We both got down to 193 and a half, so, uh, thank you, Todd. That really, you know, it changed my life. Oh, that was very sweet of you. Yeah.
39:46
We, we miss Todd. Todd Wischnev, who, uh, used, who is on the Megapod, by the way, so the Megapod will start, uh, the schedule for the Beating the Book podcast once again is that the Megapod starts before week one.
39:56
Each and every Thursday morning we put it out, me, Todd Wischnev, Will Hill, and a rotating group of the best guests, including yourself, sir, uh, in all of sports betting. And then Guessing Lines begins before week two.
40:09
As always. But everyone just can't wait that long. What's this? I'm looking at the, uh, the BetBash, uh, schedule, and th- it's, it's Gilly Alexander. Friday you're hosting a, uh, a session, right? Super, super honored.
40:22
Um, I, I moderated there before, but this one has Billy Walters on it, so it's extra special. Uh, Jack Larkin is from SportsTrade. Alex Kane, who's the CEO of SportsTrade, will be on that as well.
40:32
Plus we have a, a, uh, legisla- former legislator in the state of West Virginia, and a regulator I wanna say in Pennsylvania, but don't hold me to that.
40:41
But anyway, it's gonna be about, I'm sure the DraftKings thing will come up, but it's basically Billy's, you know, I'm gonna start with Billy 'cause that's who people wanna see.
40:48
Be like, where's the voice for the bettor in all of this? So if you, i- here's my thing, though. If y- you know, folks who are not, who are listening to this are most likely not at BetBash.
40:57
Would you recommend that they come to it next year? Oh, absolutely, and, and I think the key to BetBash is, is there's great social, uh, programs. There's, you know, open bars every night. There's golf. There's poker.
41:09
And it's like going to Disney. Don't try to ride the rides, you know, from sun up to sun down. You're just gonna get burned out, so what you wanna do is just recognize, hey, I'm gonna pace myself.
41:22
Maybe I'll pass on the scavenger hunt. I love golf. I wanna play, play golf, but maybe I'll go ahead and pass on the poker tournament.
41:28
If you try to do everything, you're just gonna be so worn out after two days, especially at 60. I mean, I just can't do it anymore. 60 years old, Steve Fezzik. Is that why you can't play tennis every day with me?
41:38
Is that the problem, 60? I, I'm on the DL two-thirds of the time, you know? Um- Oh, I know... they, I, and, and my son gets, gets my first kick at me each week, and then, you know, playing twice a week is hard, yeah.
41:49
Before we go- I understand. I'm sympathetic...
41:51
before we go, uh, Circa Millions obviously has been your, you know, those, these handicapping contests where you're picking five games a week has been your bread and butter, whether it was back at the Hilton or whether it's currently at Circa.
42:02
Can you give, for folks in the final two minutes, your, without giving anything too far away, 'cause I love how you start with I want perfect information so I'm waiting till the very end.
42:13
That's always the first thing you say. Exact. Deadline's 3:00 PM. You wanna put in your, you don't have to put in your picks at 2:58. Uh, famously Las Vegas Chris- Las Vegas Chris...
42:20
almost didn't get his picks in because of that. And he was in it, right? Uh- Like late. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. But, um, an hour before is a good k- you know, compromise. But, but, but don't- Are you setting alarms?
42:30
I, I'm, I'm on top of it. Okay. Yeah, I'm, I'm, yeah, th- th- I'm, I'm betting all day, you know, college football, but there have been times where I look up, it's like, [gasps] it's 2:10, you know?
42:39
Okay, all right, I'm, I'm popping them in now.
42:41
And getting your picks in, number one, but get them in late, is, it, those would be my top two picks, and my number three strategy advice, until like week 13 I would never take a number worse than what you could bet on the board.
42:54
So think about this. Until week 13. Yeah, then you could start being a little contrarian if, i- if you're out of it, but like, like let- Then you start scoreboard watching a little bit? Yeah. Okay.
43:02
But if you like, for, for instance, let's say you like the Chargers against the Raiders, and Herbert's gonna play and his plantar fasciitis has cleared up, all right?
43:10
But they make the Chargers minus three and a half in the contest, but, but South Point still has the Chargers minus three.
43:15
I would not play the Chargers minus three and a half because you're making, when you put it on your card, it's like an implied bet on the Chargers.
43:22
Just go and, and bet the Chargers at the window minus the three instead of betting them minus three and a half by playing them in a contest.
43:29
So what percentage then, now you have five picks a week, so it's an easy percentage to calculate, of your picks actually has to do with any kind of handicap that's beyond what you just described? Half. Half and half.
43:42
Half and half. Half is just, bang, I'm doing those because I ge- I'm getting the best of it, and half is because I think something. And when I play poker, I say I'm not good enough to fold pocket kings.
43:52
I don't care what's happened. I, I, I could be convinced a guy has aces, I'm still not folding my kings 'cause I, it, it, I just am not gonna be right enough of the time.
44:00
I'm not good enough not to play a team plus eight when the line's six currently. Lastly, using this strategy, have you ever just been way out of it ever? Yes, yes.
44:10
There's been years where the line moves haven't done well, and I can't win when that occurs. But you're okay with that because that's, it, it, it works a whole heck of a lot of time other, other times to, to justify.
44:22
Absolutely. I finished 21st. I faded late, but I still got 21st out of 5,000. You were definitely late. I'll take it. Yeah, 21st. For a guy who's won it twice, 21st, he's like, eh, 21st.
44:31
Thousands of people in this thing. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate as always. My pleasure. Steve Fezzik, everybody. Uh, we've done all we can do. Best Bets is next. Enjoy from VS, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music]
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