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Aug 7, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2025 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2025 | Hour 2
00:00
44:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly's behind the glass. Crack standing by.
0:21
Just wanna point this out. First of all, a couple tweets.
0:23
One, Brian Schaefer letting us know that, uh, with this strange format in tennis where, uh, Montreal and Toronto overlap with Cincinnati, which is just, again, it's just a money grab, squeezing it all into three weeks.
0:35
Brian Schaefer says Osaka has a to be determined time tomorrow. Mboka will play Saturday. So Mboka's match, they are putting in her, her round of 128, in other words, they're shoving into the round of 64 schedule.
0:50
That's how they're getting around it. Um, still, do- way too much, uh, way too much overlap here.
0:56
Uh, and then, uh, yesterday, in case you missed it, Toronto Blue Jays capped a series, uh, for the ages against the Rockies. 63 hits in three games. Uh, the most by a team in a three-game sen- set since 1900.
1:12
Uh, the Blue Jays won the series opener 15 to one, the middle game 10 to four, uh, and then yesterday, 20 to one.
1:20
Set a franchise record for runs in a three-game series, 45, and it was the sixth time in franchise history since 1977 that they scored at least 20 runs in a ballgame.
1:30
Uh, I st- I still don't buy into them winning the World Series. I still don't buy into them winning the pennant. I just don't. Um, will they win that division?
1:40
Uh, Yankees gotta figure out something, but the Red Sox are coming, and right now, um, uh, in that division, obviously the, uh, the Blue Jays holding the lead.
1:48
It's, it's hard not to get sort of mesmerized by a series at, at Coors, but the Red Sox four games back, Yankees five and a half back. A lot of baseball still to be played over a quarter of the season.
1:59
I just, I am not a Toronto guy, despite that performance, but what a, what a series. 63 hits, including 24 yesterday.
2:08
24 in the ballgame in their 20 to one win, and, uh, Dante Bichette, who, uh, played so great as a Colorado Rocky, his son Bo Bichette, seven of 17 in that series, three homers, 10 RBI, and his average up to.301.
2:22
It's time for Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger. [upbeat music] Oh, yeah. What up? Hey, how we doing? I'm good. How are you?
2:41
I'm gonna give you guys here some, you know, we can't play these sportsbooks here in Las Vegas, so I, I, I's just telling you, like, some of these sportsbooks, I don't understand the lines.
2:51
So DraftKings, there's a live line DraftKings. By the way, I think FanDuel has this too. Colts first half, minus three and a half. It, it, it's, it's six, like, like, at some, a couple, a couple places. No, I'm...
3:04
Yeah, hold on. Uh, I'm sorry. That one's four and a half. This is the one. The Bengals, but that's still a good play though.
3:09
For, the, the Colts are playing their starters, so, uh, Bengals minus three and a half, first half. There it is. There it is. Kelly played it earlier. Yep. It's six here behind us. Six what? It's, it's minus six.
3:20
First half? Yes. Oh, wow. There was a major line move in the last half hour came the Colts, but this is 30 minutes old. I- DraftKings just didn't move.
3:28
So a two and a half point difference in the first half line between DraftKings and what's behind us at Circa. Oh, there, there it is. There's the live line, three and a half. Oh, boy, oh, boy.
3:34
And not only Circa, Chris, Westgate, South Point, it's six. I mean, I'm just saying, like, the, the, there's, there's stone cold value out there- Yes... if you just follow the markets.
3:47
By the way, you don't need a live odd service. I, I, I, you know, I have, I have a, an odd service up here right now. Um, you don't need a live service.
3:54
You just need to have DraftKings, FanDuel, and you can, you know, you can get dummy accounts out here, uh, even if you're home or anywhere in the country, and you can look at the, you know, your, your old, um, if you're in Survivor, if you're in Millions, you can log into that account and still look at the lines here live.
4:10
People don't know that. They think it's, that is a contest entry. No. That's a, that's is a, an a- absolute 100% account number to access the lines at Circa, at Westgate.
4:21
If you're in those con- you can use your old contest number. There's a tip I didn't even, didn't even know I was gonna give. But the point is, is that now there's fives, four and a halves minus 20, uh- [laughs]...
4:32
Indianapolis, three and a half at DraftKings. How much do you love the preseason? I re- It's fantastic... I really do. Yeah. You're not gonna see too many lines in life- No... where Cincinnati's minus six.
4:41
You know, you, you, you got these games- Not gonna see too many. You'll never see any of them. Well, I mean- Yeah... Cincinnati minus six for the game and minus six for the first half.
4:47
You're not gonna see that too many times. Yeah. But it's all about...
4:50
A- and Gil, you don't even know, so I wanted to bring someone on just now, and I was, like, begging him to come on with us, 'cause he's one of the sharpest guys in the world.
4:56
But he, he j- you know, like he says, he, "I'm too shy." He says, "Pass." I said, "Come on with us. Gil would love to have you on our pr- this guy's a genius." Mm-hmm. One of the smartest guys in sports betting.
5:06
For me to tell you that, that means a lot. He says, "I like living under a rock." So, um, I wanted him to come on, but, uh, like- What, did you just run into him out here? No, no, no, no. Oh, okay.
5:16
I've known this guy for years. Okay. So now he sends me an article from somebody, and he's like, "Hey, like, this is a perfect example. Matt LaFleur told the starters they will play Saturday.
5:25
He's pretty much told us we're going to play. As far as how many snaps, I don't know, but we are gonna play." Like, that's giant information for tomorrow. But now there's no lineup on it right now.
5:35
There is no Green Bay first half line. It's tomorrow's game. But just reading, following the beat reporters- This is what we talked about... I didn't mean to come in here like a train full of steam. No, no, no, no.
5:45
But, like, just following the beat- these beat reporters, this is great information. We, we talked about this, uh, yesterday, and it's...
5:50
Or excuse me, two days ago, where it, it's probably the, you know, probably the most, you know, informative, uh, or important thing that we could have said all week, which is, again, it's just the notion that-
6:01
If you tell your buddies, right?
6:02
Your, let's say your sports fan friends who are not really big bettors, but are, you know, have bet in their life, but they're not bettors first, they're just sports fans first, and you tell them that you bet on pre-season football- Yeah...
6:13
a lot of them look at you like you're the most degenerate person in the world. Yes. Yes. And they say, they say, "Oh my God, you're, you're absolutely ridiculous." But what you just said is, again, the, the point.
6:23
First of all, we, we know, uh, uh, we know the motivations, we know the depth charts. If you curate your Twitter feeds, uh, for the best beat reporters, and it's just an information battle.
6:33
And you just don't ha- This is like the draft, right? This is like betting the NFL draft. You just gotta know the stuff before the books do. Yeah.
6:41
Um, and then in some cases, as we've said, it's also irrational because we kinda know that Josh Allen's not gonna play for the Bills, but yet when they announce it, it's another move- Yeah... on top of it. Yeah.
6:50
So there's just a lot of... It's just a fascinating case study, and it only lasts three weeks.
6:54
So, but, so I heard you guys talk about, earlier, I listened to the Steve Fejgaq- uh, Fezzik asse- session here, and I hear you guys talk about Ras. Yes, Ras is part of the pre-season.
7:03
They move games, but they're not nearly- No... a- a- as many plays as I know a certain group. I'm not gonna say names.
7:10
And the guy I just talked to, it's a 65-year-old multimillionaire Jewish guy from back home, back on the East Coast, genius, mathematical genius. Doesn't go...
7:19
I only heard him on one show, and I've known him for 20-plus years, and I said, "Come on with us." And I did it without even asking you because we would want his...
7:28
If you knew the, if we revealed the name, you'd be like, "Wow, let's get him on." Um, genius guy, uh, worked for the sharpest groups in the world. He's the originator. He's not getting it from anyone.
7:36
He's the originator. He also originates so much pre-season, like, you know, he, he, he's a genius. So there- Was he the, was he the guy that sat next to us at the Jim Feist thing a few weeks back? There's four groups.
7:47
Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Oh, different guy. He lives outside of Philadelphia. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Genius guy. Wow. Um, so there's four different, um... Oh, no, that, that, that guy is, uh, Jeff Whitelaw is- Yeah... very...
7:56
Forget it. Yeah. He, he... But the money's in. Jeff, the money's in. I get you, buddy. [laughs] The money's in. There's gonna be no more big gambling, no more swings in your life. [laughs] Just enjoy those millions.
8:05
Live and walk on the beach in Del Mar. No, I'm, I, I mean, he's a great guy, too. But keeping myself surrounded by the sharpest minds in the world is very important, 'cause that's how I make my living, you know?
8:18
Um- That's your MO. It is. It is. Yeah. You know? Um, uh, I have good contacts, and, and, and I, and, uh, like I said, come on out here. Just there's, there's a nugget of wisdom.
8:28
Now, Green Bay first half tomorrow when it comes up, even though the line is pick 'em or one, it's one, okay? Tomorrow the first half may be two and a half, you know, if, or something like that.
8:39
Now, it doesn't, it, it doesn't mean it's going to win, it just means that it has a mathematical edge. And what, what I mean by that is it has a, uh, I'll go out on a limb and even say a 10% edge, which is ridiculous.
8:53
People don't have 10% edges. But let's say it does, all right? Say I go to the counter and I make a bet of $1,000. That means I'm, theoretically, long term I'm going to make $100 for every thousand I bet.
9:06
And you don't really make that much. Like I said, two, 3% edge is a monster. Pre-season you can up that, though. And I had a war in town this week, a, an effing war. My throat was sore. I didn't even tell you.
9:18
Usually I tell Gil all my little things, you know? This is why you're salt. This is what you meant when you said you're salty coming in here? I, it, probably. Yeah. I mean, it happened a couple- Yeah...
9:24
days ago, but I haven't, you know, I, I, you know, I try to, you know, go to the gym, work it out, go swim laps. Can't do it, so that's all over, so I'm g- let it out here.
9:33
Um, a- a- and being serious, though, I had a war this week because I was told I was allowed to bet something. I'll, I'll tell you the bet. It was, it was the Rams to not make the playoffs plus 180.
9:47
Rams not to make, yeah, plus 180 or 185, might have been 185. So- Riffing on the Stafford news. That's right. Mm-hmm. That's right.
9:53
But it came the same kind of, uh, you know, it, it, it came out more that day, but they didn't move. By the way, the line was the same at three different sports books on the Rams not to make the playoffs.
10:03
But I went to where, one of my books that I usually get down pretty good money, and, uh, I went to the counter, and I text the line manager ahead of time, though, to tell him I'm coming in. I'm not betting on the app.
10:15
Places don't like big bets on the app, or they don't like informational bets on the app. I try to be friendly with everyone to tell you, "Hey, this is going to happen," or, "This..."
10:24
You know, uh, I had a situation two weeks ago where, uh, someone had the wrong lineup on the game, and I told him, "Listen, you got the wrong team favorite. The wrong UFC fighter favorite here."
10:35
That same book had 10 dime limits on their app on pre-season. I said, "Listen, you, you gave me two dimes last year, but I'm just letting you know it's 10. If you want 10, I'm gonna bring some more money in, you know?
10:46
But it's two." He goes, "Oh my God, thanks, Crack." That stuff helps you long term.
10:50
Well, just like I'm that f- I'm that friendly with that guy, I had a war with a guy I thought I was that friendly with, 'cause he told me, "Yeah, go in. You can come in, yeah, you can come in and make that bet."
11:01
I came into the counter and make the bet, and the line manager said, "I don't care what my boss said." Ooh. "You're not getting that bet." Oh. I said words that I can't believe came out of my mouth.
11:11
I, I, I didn't know I could even say... I don't curse. I very rarely curse out, out, out, you know. I went absolute... I didn't go, I didn't get mad 'cause I wasn't getting the bet or something situational.
11:21
I got mad because your boss told you, "Hey, Crack's coming in. He's gonna bet two dimes on this," or, you know, whatever it may be. Did you get it eventually or no? And, and listen, it, it, it, it...
11:32
I did get it, but I had to fight for it, and I literally took the ticket and wanted to rip it up and say, "Listen, it's not about this." You know what it's worth? Nothing, because two other books have it in town.
11:41
I could've bet them all together. Like, I lost it, Gil. More with Crack, Salty Crack, right here at the Numbers Game at Visa, the sports betting network, coming back.
11:49
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12:12
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12:21
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12:34
Tony Farmer on Twitter, "My girlfriend just asked me what I was doing this morning and I said, 'I'm enjoying salty crack.'" Salty Bill Krackenberg, everybody. Oh, this is JasonH11, "So what's Kelly doing on his day off?"
12:46
Kelly said, "Watching pre-season line moves." Wish I could do that, except I have a show to do here. How you doing, Billy? You okay? Green Bay's minus three now. Green Bay's minus three?
12:56
Look at, last break, what were we talk- we were just talking about? Yeah. Green Bay. Mm-hmm. Come on. Is, was there a big s- look at this. Green Bay, major line move just right... Did I, did we do that? Did I do that?
13:05
No, I'm not [laughs] I'm not... Listen. I, I, and I, of course I didn't do it. No. But it just so happens that, um, Kelly sent me an article about Aaron Gra- Aaron Glenn reveals that their starters are gonna play. Yeah.
13:15
Well, I, I, I said now at pick 'em, or first half pick 'em, Green Bay first half ha- has better starters. I think they're the better team.
13:23
And then all of a sudden, now I look up and, and, and the, the major line move on the screen is Green Bay. So just situational there. Um, maybe someone grabbed it on, on, on the break.
13:33
If so- if someone asked you what's the, what's the time of year, 365 days, of a sports betting calendar? What is the time that you love more than any? Pre-season football's right up there, isn't it? Right up there.
13:45
Is there one- Right, it's, it's, it's right up there. If you had to rank, what's better? Uh, I'm part of a, I'm part of a lot of these moves, so, um, I, I, I really like pre-season football. Yeah.
13:56
Um, I, I like getting the best of it, but however, you have to watch out getting the best of it because if you're laying one with a sportsbook that the li- you're talking...
14:05
Look at this, this, um, this c- this Cincinnati game, the Bengals, they were plus one and a half- Yeah... the other day. Open as dogs. Then they went to seven here. Right here at Circa, they were seven.
14:17
You're talking about eight and a half point move. Sportsbooks don't really like that too much when you do that to them. Now, you can be ha- it's, i- in Vegas, we're different than the sportsbooks back east.
14:27
In Vegas at least, Circa, the Westgate, uh, Super, uh, the, the, a couple other ones in town, the South Point, they're gonna take it, they're gonna move it and overmove the line, and they're gonna take the hit from the originator.
14:40
But, um, if you're playing back east with those books, they just close your account, basically, limiting you to 10 bucks the next play. I think it's just so unfair what they do. Take a bet. I'm not saying take a big bet.
14:52
Take a $500 bet from the originator or a cou- maybe a couple of their followers.
14:57
Um, you know, it was a big controversy I haven't got to talk to you about that happened on our show last week when I tweeted that, uh, segment, that, that, that first tweet out about that group that contacted me, um, in, it was actually in, in North New Jersey and New York, when they contacted me about betting five of them together, how they all got their bets in- All same, same IP address?
15:20
Yeah, same IP. Yeah. Actually, I found out now four of them were same IP, one wasn't- Yeah... on their, on the... But, uh, one account was down a couple hundred thousand and now is down 80, so they got 120 back.
15:32
These are big, big amounts, by the way. So, um, we, I had some pushback there. About a dozen people of those 100 comments, so you're, uh, roughly I'm gonna say 15%,
15:45
even on the show when it was repeated, I was surprised at all the pushback by the, by the people. They said, "Oh, well, of course you shouldn't get paid if you and your buddies bet the same game."
15:55
Like, the, here you have, th- this is, like the Mother Teresa- What? What?... of sports betting, these guys are. The, the, these companies will rip your eyeballs out and take your first kid from you.
16:05
What was the, what was the- Uh, ruin your family, and you guys wanna stick up for sportsbooks now? Jesus, Mary, and Joseph. What was the rationale? I don't get it. They're saying that, that's in the terms and conditions.
16:15
Terms and conditions says you can't bet together. Well, that, but that's designed, right, for sportsbooks to, uh, if it's, if it's a s... I don't, I don't know what the, what they're...
16:26
Well, they're more worried about, like, some syndicates doing that, right? Or, you know, but, but, like, the notion of friends getting together and that being enforced- Yeah. Yeah... is kind of ridiculous.
16:35
I guess 'cause I said the word three, two, one, go, which really didn't happen in the situation, but I'm used to doing that.
16:41
You know, the great Billy Walters, that's the way it used to work before these apps, before you could bet on the computers. You know, not, I s- I shouldn't say computers, but there was a giant phone room.
16:51
Matter of fact, that guy that I talked about that wanted to come on the phone- Yeah... he, he, he come on the show, he was one of those guys in that room, and that's the way it worked. Three, two, one.
17:00
You know, you have Tradewinds, you have Heritage, you have G- Chris, you have Pinnacle, and, and everyone had their own book to dial.
17:06
This is when they were dialing bets, and, uh, you, you would dial it three, two, one, go. Bang. All the books would get hit together. So that's why I probably just said that because I've been around since those things.
17:15
Dinosaur-ish. So, um, but I was surprised by all these people that were pushing back and saying, "Oh, this is terms and conditions. What are you doing? I've been betting for years."
17:26
And even the pros came at me, said, well they said they're pros, "Oh, you know, I win a lot more money than you think, and that's not right that you guys do that." I said, "First of all, it wasn't me.
17:35
I'd be happy to say it was me." Right. Um, it, it, by the way, in the past it has been me, I'm not gonna lie, but this situation, like I, I, I don't have a single dime in this, so it didn't matter to me financially.
17:45
I just thought that the book in hand that the guy was down, he was a- he was down 210,000. He showed me all of his NFLs throughout the year. I said, "Please don't send me no more."
17:54
All of his yearly NFL five, five and 10 and $20,000 bets. Lose, lose, lose, lose, lose. Uh, and then, but he's had winning weeks.
18:02
He won 50, 60,000 one week, but he lost overall 210,000, got back 120, and him and the rest of the guys are not getting paid. And they're getting ghosted by the sportsbook.
18:13
But these people That are s- under—by the way, you know, maybe the answer is this. They're under anonymity on a computer, on, on Twitter, and on, on YouTube in the comments.
18:24
They're the ones that are saying, "Well, of course you shouldn't get paid five guys bet together the same side. Are you crazy? Of course you shouldn't get paid. It's in the terms and conditions." I, I, I don't get it.
18:36
I don't, I don't get the... Like, it, th- this shouldn't... There are so many things in terms and conditions. You think people read that? Anyone ever see Willy Wonka?
18:45
Remember Willy Wonka when the kids came in, they had to sign the board, and it was bigger, and it got smaller and smaller, and the father said, "Don't you dare sign that, Veruca." "I'm signing it, Daddy."
18:54
And they sign it. [laughs] That's, that's what... They, you know, there's so many terms and conditions, and it's all to protect them.
19:00
Basically, all the sports books' terms and conditions, at any time they could say, "We're not paying you." We're- They could find a reason. Well, right.
19:08
The, the, what, what was lost at what you just said is when they were $210,000 down- Yeah... nothing, nothing happened. No. It's the 120 back that all of a sudden it became an issue. Yes, because him- Yes...
19:18
but, and, and the other accounts- So this is-... were up money, though. The other accounts just- Yeah... did win some money. Uh, I think one was down, but three of them won, and yeah, they're, they're not paying them.
19:27
Well, right now. We're gonna see. They think these kind of things help them, though. Um, so maybe there's a little bird dog in there for the K Man. I'm joking.
19:33
[laughs] But, um, yeah, no, but, but- For the, for the K Man. [laughs] Yeah. No, but I mean, it, I, I was just... That surprised me a lot.
19:41
I'm sure after this show again, when it goes on, if it goes on YouTube, for some reason the VSiN guys, they'll, I don't know, they only play 15 minutes instead of the whole show. Um, I'm pissed off at that, too.
19:50
I'm gonna tell Bill later. No, they did a great job editing that, though, I thought. No, editing was great. Yeah. But the whole show was not on. Oh, yeah. And people are asking me. Yeah.
19:57
And, and you know what I tell them? Go to the VSiN app. I think you can watch on the VSiN app. You can, yeah. Right? The whole show? Every show on the network. Yeah.
20:02
Every hour you can go back on the VSiN watch app and watch. Yeah, but then they get shaken down for like four bucks or something, right? I mean- No, no, no, just go on there. For real? Yeah. All right, good.
20:08
There you go. Well, there you go. See? Shaken down. [laughs] I'm just kidding. I had a great conversation with Bill today. I told you that. Yeah. At that Fezzik seminar. Yeah.
20:14
Where he stayed for the whole thing, and I told you, he put you on a pedestal. I'm telling everybody. He loves, he loved, he, he loves, uh... So Gil didn't know. No, I'm joking.
20:23
Gil knows, but yeah, Bill appreciates our segments here, me, Fezz, and he appreciates you. Just gonna let you in, just letting you know. Well, thank you. That's very kind of you to say.
20:30
No, it was, it, he, he, he- Yeah... stood up and talked about it, and just in general. And that was a better, uh, that was a really good seminar. You know, I wasn't scheduled to do any speaking. I just was going there.
20:39
We weren't either necessarily. Yeah, I was just going there. Yeah. And then he said to me, you know, "Can you come up and say something?" And I stayed there for, like...
20:46
I, I talked, I gave away stuff there and talked about my history more than I've ever talked anywhere. Like, the original Planet Pinnacle, people don't realize- You're talking about the Fezzik boot camp. Yeah. Yeah.
20:58
Pinnacle Sports, I think that's their URL now, or pinnacle.com or Pinnacle Sports. I mean, they're illegal in the United States, so, um, but Pinnacle Sports did not, was not Pinnacle Sports.
21:07
They were called planetpinnacle.com. But they might've been the last place to take internet bets. They were old-school business guys. Uh, you know, they were really, really schooled, but some of the best...
21:20
The, the two guys at the top were Stanley Thompson and Jimmy Evart. Jimmy went in the Hall of Fame last year.
21:26
Um, they had, they had stage names of Henry and Monty, and, uh, the, George's was, was the, one of, the other guy, but George wasn't in Curacao. Those two guys were.
21:35
And Planet Pinnacle was the original sportsbook, but they were old-school phone call guys.
21:40
They were probably the last sportsbook to say, "Oh, okay, I guess we gotta open up this thing on the internet, open up a site, then you wanna..."
21:47
And they, they had a big stage like this with some of the geniuses that Henry trained. Then they had a giant sea of phones with 60, 70 phone clerks at first that were taking the bets.
21:58
And by the way, they lost money the first year. Pinnacle lost money the first year, and yet Stanley said, "Yeah, we're gonna, we're, we're going to 103 on NFL. I don't care, 103 on both sides."
22:09
They knew that they just were part of some, you know, they, they, they knew that, eh, you just got some- They had some, they had some negative variance. Yeah, just part, I was gonna say part of some variance. Yeah.
22:18
Part of some variance, and, uh, they had destroyed it years after. And why? Because they were a betting book. People don't know, a betting book.
22:27
They actually took bets from people and held the line maybe even for a couple seconds, and got on the phones and started betting it everywhere themselves. They knew who the sharpest sports bettors were, and they bet it.
22:38
And when we come back from the break, I had a meeting with one of the guys in town that runs a book. I told him, "I, I get it. You guys sh- are supposed to bet.
22:45
You get sharp bets, you're supposed to have bookmakers you bet with." Bill Krackomberger, @BillKrackman with a K on Twitter. Wise Crack is the name of his podcast with John Orlando.
22:53
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23:10
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23:40
So let's, let's recap again what happened in that, uh, to the line again in the, the Green Bay game if we could. Again, so Aaron Glenn comes out. This is the Green Bay-Jets game we're talking about. Right.
23:54
Um, Aaron Glenn comes out and says they're playing the starters. Yes. The Jets are. Yes. So we see a brief move in the Jets direction. Kelly sent me the text on, live on the show.
24:05
Aaron Glenn said that's why the game went from, like, two down to, like, pick minus 15- Yeah... or even minus one, minus 05, meaning it was Green Bay favorite.
24:15
Now, that could have been an easy setup, 'cause it's real easy to set. Listen- Yeah... if this doesn't take, uh, the amazing Kreskin, you can bet Circa- [laughs] Yes...
24:24
and bet maybe a, a, a Chris or a Pinnacle or j- all you bet, bet it, all you have to do is bet Circa. Cir- my account is, is, is, forget it. It's so hot for, it's like morphine. So you, you get a immed- immediate jolt.
24:36
I bet and they're gonna move two, three points. Westgate, two, three points. So all I do is give them a bet on the wrong side, which I haven't done, so I'm not saying that. They're gonna move, and then what happens?
24:46
Everyone that's line managers in sports books across the world, not just Vegas, not just the United States, the world, is told, "When Circa moves, you guys move."
24:55
So, um, you could literally manipulate the line, and that is obviously what happened there. Um, even though that Aaron Glenn said that, well, Green Bay is also playing their starters.
25:06
So, and the Green Bay starters are probably a lot better than the Jet starters. So that's why tomorrow, watch what happens tomorrow, this will become a play when the first half line comes up tomorrow.
25:15
Green Bay will become a play. And God forbid you can get a quarter, a first quarter in. God forbid you can get teasers. There's so many opportunities for things now. There really is no teasers that you can get.
25:26
I- if you have a sportsbook that, perfect example, if you have a sportsbook that takes a teaser, I know we're all over the place back and forth here, guys, I apologize, but like if you have a sportsbook that, that, that takes teasers, um, there are places, there, there are some places, maybe in far off places, um, that, that you should be, you know, betting, betting certain teasers around the low totals.
25:47
I'm tr- I was trying to look up the teaser. I can't find it. It's gonna be, uh, maybe the Carolina, Cleveland game, I think.
25:51
It's r- one, one of the low totals, if you can bet like Carolina, uh, on a six-point teaser when or when the total's 32 or the opposite way, um, on a lot of these, um, I, I usually don't bet teasers to 10, a- and a half or if you could bet like a 6.5 point teaser with, uh, I'd pick the lowest total.
26:08
Uh, Green Bay, uh, okay, Detroit, Ala- uh, Atlanta, 32. Boy, if you can see a total that's 32 and you could tease a side to plus 10.5, well, obviously it's, you know, you have a good chance of w- of winning that.
26:21
But the problem becomes now the teaser prices, these sportsbooks have all adjusted. I cannot play a teaser in this town 'cause it's too, the, the, the teaser juice is too high. I think DraftKings is one of the best.
26:32
Mind you, I have to give DraftKings credit, but I am. I think the DraftKings t- uh, teaser price is very good compared to anywhere near- It was last year, too... in Vegas. Yeah.
26:41
Um, but going back to what Kelly w- uh, text me and then the major line move came because a syndicate group went out on the Green Bay Packers after they heard Kelly. No, I'm just kidding. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah.
26:52
No, but it's situational that, that, that's what happened there. And you could see these line moves are crazy, but, um- The other one we talked about earlier. Yeah.
26:59
Kelly got the Cincinnati Bengals minus three and a half when the first half line came out. That's six everywhere now, first half. Did he get that line? He did.
27:06
And it's funny because we talked about DraftKings having that earlier when I came on air. DraftKings still had that first half line at minus three and a half, and as we see here, three and a half, just refreshed.
27:18
How can they ho- how can they have that? You wanna complain about you throwing people out- Still three and a half at DraftKings? Yeah. First half, three and a half. [laughs] By the way. Geez.
27:27
Minus six, minus 15 at a couple books here in town. I mean, to be real blunt, that's a middle. That's a, I, I don't middle things, but, you know, it, it's a first half.
27:37
I don't, it's tougher to middle first halves than full games. Um, i- i- and now I, normally I, I would I, on key numbers maybe, but this is three and a half. Four is a live number. Five's dead.
27:48
Six, yeah, maybe it could land on a side. But, um, a- anyway, that, for me- All right... it'd just be a bet. I'm not middling anything there. Same thing with their Colts minus three and a half, minus fift- minus $1.12.
28:00
As you can see, it's minus four, minus 31, or minus four and a half, minus 20. That's just a, that's just a bet it, reset, and go to the next one.
28:10
So there's a couple bets, uh, that, that are mathematically, if you have DraftKings, they're definitely worth playing first halves. All right. Uh, you're, you're getting a chance to do your podcast- Yeah...
28:19
live at Bet Bash? Yeah, I've never been to the Bet Bash before. Um, so Spanky asked me, John, and Randy- Randy McKay...
28:27
yeah, we're, we're gonna, the three of us are gonna be doing about an hour podcast, uh, live at Bet Bash next Wednesday, um, 1:00 to 2:00 PM. Please check to make sure. I think that's, that's, that's it, though.
28:37
It's Wednesday 1:00 to 2:00 PM, uh, live at Bet Bash. So, um, you know, all the telephone tough guys that wanna say things, come on over and we'll talk to you in person.
28:47
No, I'm just saying like, you know, these people go after us for everything. I, I'm gonna be at certain, well, they know where I am every week. They just wanna be your friend, Bill.
28:52
In real life, they wanna be your friend. They really do. They really do. Yeah. You know, uh, John gave me a, I mean, someone gave me a good line the other day [laughs] and I said, "You know what?
28:59
That, that's a really, that's a really good line." Maybe you did. No. [laughs] What? What was it? Are you the one that gave me this, "They're rotting from the inside out with hatred"? No. No? That wasn't me. [laughs] No.
29:09
What I- Someone gave me that line... what I would say to you is, is nobody who hates on you is having better life than you are. I have a pretty good life. I'm not gonna lie to you. Yeah.
29:16
No, no, I'm not, not that I'm, I'm extravagant with anything. I mean- Yeah... you know, I, I don't, I'm not an extravagant guy.
29:22
Um, you know, uh, there's more people in this space, though, and it's another, another subject I have. I know I talked like the whole s- the whole frigging half hour here. I'm ta- I'm sorry.
29:33
Kelly and I are taking the day off, Bill. Yeah. Go ahead. I am sorry. Yeah. [laughs] Um, there, there, there are so many... I, why would, why did I watch it? Well, it was on in the background.
29:41
There was a network on in the background. I'm not gonna name it. I'm not gonna throw any individual under the bus. It's a blanket statement.
29:46
There are more people, though, in the space that are just so happy the NFL is back, but they have nothing constructive to... They're like, they're like chicken chow meiners.
29:56
They're like, they go to a Chinese restaurant and they order, "Ah, uh, waiter, give me the chicken chow mein," 'cause that's just, they're chicken chow meiners. Uh-oh.
30:03
They just wanna talk about, you know, that's an old Philly term I heard. [laughs] I forgot about it for a decade. Yeah. I said, you know what? That's what they are, though.
30:09
They're just, uh, uh, okay, the waiter's, uh, oh, chicken chow mein. Mm. That's what they, they're just- Oh yeah, let's, we're, we're, we're based out of New York.
30:17
Oh, the Jets and Giants, the line is this, and I like the Jets, and I like the Giants. Like, there's so much garbage out there.
30:25
I have to tell you right now, I feel listening to your show, when I'm not even on, is, is definitely worth any price. And, and, you know, you can listen for free.
30:35
And, um, a- I'm just, just that's something I wanted to say about value of listening to...
30:40
If I wanna listen to shows to be entertained, um, I'll listen to, there's a couple great shows on VSAN Network that I'll listen just to be entertained, get a couple laughs, giggle, and have some fun.
30:51
You know, but it's fun. It's, it's entertaining, and that's, that's work a lot.
30:54
But if I wanna listen to something to have real information about things that are going to, uh, help you in life, little nuggets, little wisdom things in life, you and your guests, not even using me.
31:08
Um, like s- I think Steve blows me away. I, you know, he c- how did I get on an hour today and he only got on a half hour? I don't understand, but that's, that's really, uh, humbling. Um, but yeah, so anyway- Well-...
31:18
I just wanted to let you know that. I wrote that down. Let me ask you a question about this, the Vegas specifically and 17% down in terms of July to July. No one's, you know, in other words, the, the vacancy here is up.
31:34
A- and the reason, again, price gouging, uh, there's all kinds of reasons, right? People just don't wanna be in an inferno for getting price gouged- Yeah... in the middle of the summertime.
31:43
Um, there's other factors though as well, right? Obviously, with sports betting, everybody's doing all their apps and maybe s- all these years into it, the notion of having, coming to Vegas and making bets in person.
31:54
Uh, the other big one that was thrown out the other day is that the younger generations don't drink as much as older generations- Interesting... which I think is a broader problem for Vegas- Wow...
32:04
moving forward in the future, right? That they would have to sort of reconsider things if that is in fact a generational trend. And my question to you is, do you think we will see this bleed into football season? No.
32:17
Or is football season the panacea, where it's football season, we're back to normal? Here's the reason why I say no,
32:22
because, uh, I jumped on that train very little in the beginning about, you know, the year over year because of the resort fees, because of parking prices. Who has to...
32:32
My father, he would not go to a casino if he had to pay to park. Right. He wouldn't go. He's just not going. He's going to a local joint.
32:37
So, um, but that m- you see these numbers down, you see the, uh, like you said, I didn't hear 17, I heard 11 or 12, but it's all right, 17%. Yet the gambling numbers weren't down.
32:48
The gaming revenue was not down for July. They still, they still made money on baseball. Still made money betting. Yeah. The, the gaming numbers, some of them were higher than ever.
32:56
I'm talking about even the casinos, craps, blackjacks, machines, those numbers were still high. So I see that, and I say to myself, the true hardcore gamblers are still here.
33:05
Maybe some of the non-gaming revenue people left, um, over the summer for many reasons. Um, there, there's so many different reasons, even political reasons or whatever.
33:15
So, but I think they're coming back for football, Gil. I think football's back. I think these contests are gonna be, you know... You, you got between here and Westgate, you have some sick contests this year.
33:25
I think they're all gonna be back. They're all gonna be overflowed. I think they're gonna... I think that this, uh, this survivor, it, it, it may get like, who knows, m- a lot more than the minimum.
33:36
And, uh, I, I think it's great. I think it's great for the town. Uh, in, in general, I think, I think we're okay as a town.
33:42
Yeah, there's gonna be no collection buckets from Bill Krackomberger around the Strip trying to help the casinos. That, that, that drinking point, generally- Interesting... generationally is an interesting one.
33:48
Interesting. Uh, Crack On contest, how many he's doing entry-wise, and more coming up. Numbers Game.
33:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSAN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game.
34:12
Gil Alexander, Bill Krackomberger in the house, @BillKrackman on Twitter. Wise Cracks, the name of his podcast, which he will be doing live with John Orlando, of course, and Randy McKay at Bet Bash this coming week.
34:25
Uh, [laughs] DP, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. Uh, DP Vegas, DP says, uh, "Fantastic show as always. Double dose of Fezz and Crack." This is from, uh, Loch Ness. "What is in Crack's coffee this morning?
34:36
He is on fire." And Todd Bubba Horwitz, "Great info as always. You can learn a lot listening to ANG. Remember, haters are losers in disguise," Bill, he says. And Mr.
34:43
Rothstein, "Salty Crack is the best of all possible Cracks." Um, I cannot believe that DraftKings first half is still at three and a half. Still there. Three and a half on Cincinnati. Yeah. Let's refresh it again.
34:55
Everybody else at six or seven. Pulls down. And as Kelly pointed out, with the money [laughs] he just arb the m- The Colts three and a half and Cincinnati still is three and a half... just arb the money lines.
35:02
But- The money lines, yeah... but you then said if, if you bet it, they're gonna kick you out.
35:06
If you bet it, they're probably, you know, if you bet both of them and, and they, you know, one of the traders sees it, you're, you're gonna get limited. Yeah, you're gonna, you're gonna get limited.
35:14
How about just betting it? Yeah. How about just betting it- Not, not 100%, but you, you know, you're gonna get limited to, to $100 or less... how about just betting it in conservative fashion, not going crazy?
35:20
No, then you're not gonna. Okay. That's a, that- If you're gonna bet, if your average bet- That's the strategy... is, is, is $100- Yeah... and you bet that same 100 on these two- They're not gonna do anything to you...
35:28
providing the trader doesn't get, uh, doesn't get like, "Oh, this guy's betting these two." I know a lot of people, not just picking on DraftKings, there's many sports books. Oh, this is the biggest.
35:37
We just talked about one. This is the biggest thing. That the trader says- What-... "Oh, put that account limited," and they don't realize the big picture.
35:44
The guy loses every year betting NFL, betting college, betting... He loses. However, he got these two lines 'cause he heard about it on the Numbers Game.
35:53
I mean- I, I've said this before on the show, I'll say it again, which is your sports book experience now, you know, I'll just use here in Las Vegas. Your sports book experience when you go to the desk sometimes- Yeah...
36:05
when you go to the window- Yep... is often based on the mood of the supervisor that day and who you get. I never heard no one say that like that. It- But that's spot on.
36:15
It, it- It's based on the, the person- Who you get-... and risk. Yes. Their mood. The person and risk. Which is never gonna be good because they all wish they could be betters like us.
36:22
Well, no, but sometimes you- I hate to say it. Not all of them, but-... sometimes you get lucky, right?... a lot of them. Sometimes you get lucky- Yeah, yeah...
36:26
and the person's like, "Yeah, sure Listen, I always go up there now and I'm like, "Ah, it's not gonna win. They should take it. Come on." That's right. You ready to just- That's right... go, goad them into it?
36:34
That's the sales talk. [laughs] It's go- But- "This isn't gonna win. Come on"... however, yeah, just, just call yourself, "Listen, I'm a chicken chow mainer," you know? [laughs] That's all you gotta do.
36:42
Um, but, you know, honestly, um, we talked about it earlier. I talked to a big director in town here last week, and I said, "Listen, your traders shouldn't get upset.
36:54
You shouldn't get upset that a Bill Krackenberger's betting something or if Steve Fezzik or even Gil with tennis. They shouldn't get upset and say, 'That son of a B, they're trying to get over on us again.' Be happy.
37:04
Take a nickel or a dime. And by the way, start betting it yourself. If we're so good- Right... with our two percent edge, three percent edge, have the heart and the stones to bet it yourself." And guess what?
37:16
I know for a fact that a lot of the traders in this town do bet. Good for you. Just don't get in my way. And that means if I bet something at, at, at, you know, at Caesars, w- I, I use Caesars.
37:29
I'm not, I'm not even allowed to bet. All right, let, let's use it though, 'cause that's where it happened before.
37:32
Betting at Caesars, I don't wanna see Circa moving 30 seconds later or five seconds later or, or Westgate move in five second- That happened.
37:38
That happened in the past, and I'm not meaning to just s- It didn't, it happened at more than Caesars, but I'm just picking, uh, them out 'cause that's where I'm thinking about the last time it happened.
37:47
But you should bet. You should have a small account on your own. Play, um, uh, with the Coast casinos, Boyd, Coast casinos. Play Station's casinos. They don't move. They don't move instantly, so play.
37:57
I have no problem with you playing them. Um, or, you know, or whatever. I know you guys are playing with some local guys too. Play them. Have, have fun. Enjoy yourself. H- hold your thought on the next. Yeah.
38:05
Let's recap all the best bets from the show- Go ahead... today, and then, uh, we'll, uh, we'll resume here with Crack courtesy of GBank, the official bank of VSiN, uh, on tennis today.
38:15
Um, I don't think any of these have started, but I could be wrong about this. Let me, may- m- maybe they have. I have four bets today. One is in Montreal.
38:22
It's Naomi Osaka against Victoria Maboko in the final in Montreal, the Canadian Open. It's already starting in Cincinnati, the two tournaments, the two 1000s overlapping.
38:32
I got two on the ladies' side, Katie Boulter against Olga Danilovic, Yafan Wang against Peyton Stearns, and then on the men's side, Zizou Bergs plus 112 versus Jacob Fearnley as, uh, we lead up to the hard court slam that is the US Open here to begin at the end of August.
38:48
Uh, also on the show today, and again with, uh, Fezzik and Crack, we were limited, but Kelly, Colts minus 130 on the Moneyline week one preseason National Football League.
38:58
He's got the Bengals minus three-and-a-half first half. That's still available at DraftKings. Still available at DraftKings. Yep.
39:04
And the Giants on the Moneyline, uh, also f- first, uh, week here of preseason, so firing away. Stevie, uh, did have a couple.
39:11
He, Bengals, Eagles under 37 and a half, and he is on the Colts in a pick 'em versus the Dolphins week one of the regular season from Steve Fezzik earlier here on the show.
39:22
Uh, all of those brought to you by GBank, the official bank of VSiN, and once again, don't forget about the trifecta happening, uh, with GBank and of course VSiN and First Bet. It's the $500 trifecta.
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40:03
[laughs] K- he's texting us. Kelly's texting us from the back room. All three games tonight at DraftKings you can arb. So I don't know. Maybe, maybe something happened over at DraftKings. They usually do move.
40:14
They're, they're slow to move, but they usually, they usually do move. But, um, you know, but- What else are they doing over there for God's sakes? You got one job. Gil. [laughs] Yes.
40:24
Um, uh, uh, this is, you know, 'cause I, and we're gonna close with this, I guess. I, I wanna g- I have, well, no, I have the 11th subject we went over too. So Caesars,
40:34
a lot of these other places, though I don't mean to pick on Caesars, but, um, they're easy to pick on.
40:39
Um, like, you, you, if you're a CEO or someone with your nice fancy college degree and you're, you're not used to giving speeches, hire someone that gives speeches.
40:49
Hire a speechwriter or hire someone to be your front guy for speeches, you know? Um, th- so they closed a lot of these lounges at Caesars nationwide. Yeah.
41:00
Um, a- and you know, down, back East they have the greatest seven-star lounges, Harrah's. Um, Caesars is okay.
41:06
They just went to a buffet one rather than you order off a menu for free for your, just for your top echelon people. But they closed the lower level lounges, and a lot of people are upset they closed them.
41:16
They even closed the Diamond Lounges where you used to go. You used to get some hot food. Well, now they maybe give you some peanuts, but now they even closed them. So
41:24
the CEO, nobody, the, the guy that's at the top of the chain that has that nice college degree making millions of dollars a year, he says, "You don't need to lose...
41:36
Y- you can have, you, you can ha- you can't have nothing, but you don't need to lose money certainly near as much a- a- a- as this industry has lost feeding people." So he's saying he lost money feeding people.
41:49
Well, if that was the case, South Point might as well close the doors, 'cause they lose millions every, a million and a half a month- Yeah... feeding people. They just give, uh, it's a loss leader.
41:58
That's what he says at his Caesars properties. "We don't want these lounges." Ready?
42:01
The next line, this is the next line where the, the board of directors and the stockholders if, uh, if they've seen this- It's amazing... God forbid they stop at McDonald's on the way home.
42:14
This is- This is the CEO of the company So this is, this is exactly dovetails into what I was saying earlier- Yeah...
42:18
which is remember Vegas used to be the place where people go because they could have a bargain vacation, $2 buffets. Right. Remember back in the day, right? Right.
42:29
The corporations have t- have, have completely turned that on, on its head, and this guy is so tone deaf as to say the quiet part out loud. There's nobody l- there's... Honestly, you, that's, you...
42:40
This is why I'm a street guy. I'm a street guy, I talk street terms. I can't put things into sen- these words like Gil does. That's exactly right. What Gil said is exactly right. You could think that.
42:51
We know a lot of the directors and the bosses think that. Right. You can't say it publicly. He said it out loud. He actually said, "God forbid they stop at McDonald's on the way home."
43:00
You know who also falls into this category? Who? And I'll... Jason Robins at DraftKings. Like, I, I get it, you have a very successful business. You know who's not a good spokesperson for the business? Jason Robins.
43:10
Yeah. Because he- He's made some things- He also has- He said some things before... has made some ridiculous statements that if he knew any better, like, if he had a sense, like, okay, I get you think that.
43:19
Why are you saying it? Thomas Reeg, CEO of Elder- Eldorado Caesars Entertainment, how can you say that? You know, that he has to regret. Yeah.
43:28
Someone had to say to him, "Hey, you can't talk like that in public, 'cause the public's gonna get insulted by you telling them to stop at McDonald's instead of us giving them peanuts."
43:35
I mean, this is, it's unbelievable. It's unbelievable, but- So Fe- so Fezzik, like I remember Fezzik used to go, [laughs] 'cause, 'cause Fezzik is Fezzik, right?
43:43
He used to go to some place at the Cromwell where they had, like, lots of M&Ms and stuff [laughs] and all, and he would, like, brag about coming home with all this free stuff.
43:51
He doesn't have that opportunity anymore, I guess. Well, I hate to say it- Yeah... Mr. Reeg is right about guys like Fezzik. [laughs] Because he would- On the other-...
43:57
maximize his four- On the other hand, that's true... he would get four drinks a day. Starbucks, we used to get four drinks a day at Caesars.
44:04
He would, after going to the gym, go down there and just pile all the drinks into his backpack, and get his free M&Ms and everything, and every day he would do it, and then he'd have a refrigerator like it was the end of the world.
44:15
He'd have everything set up and, and, and, and guys like him... Sorry, Steve.
44:19
See, that's the, that's the only thing that would make that quote sympathetic, if at the very end he goes, "Because we cannot afford to have 100 Stevie Fezziks." Yes. Now, if he said that- He said it...
44:27
I would be happy to say it. [laughs] He just said it because someone told him. Yeah. Oh, man. Wow. Bill- The things we get out here... Bill Krackomberger, everybody. Bet- @BillKrack on the K... yeah, BetBash next week.
44:36
BetBash next week. What day again for your podcast live? Wednesday from 1:00 to 2:00. Wednesday from 1:00 to 2:00, BetBash. Spanky's, uh, fantastic, the best ever sports betting conference. Money Moves with JVT is next.
44:48
Enjoy, from Visa, the sports betting network.
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