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Aug 7, 2026
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2026 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 7, 2026 | Hour 1
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47:20
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] This is VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:17
[upbeat music] Dustin Switelson filling in for Gil Alexander on a Numbers Game, alongside Kelly Bidlin. Thanks for waking up, hanging out with us, and welcome into your Friday.
0:31
It is technically a football Friday, as we'll recap what we saw last night in Canton, Ohio, with the Hall of Fame Game. We got a fun show lined up for you as we examine the AL Cy Young market.
0:42
In case you haven't checked, there's a new front-runner out in front as your betting favorite. We also have to examine the NFL week one lines, looking ahead again, uh, get ahead of some of these moves.
0:52
We've got a loaded guest list coming your way. 45 minutes, we go to Columbus, O-H-I-O. Bobby Carpenter, national champion, former NFL linebacker.
1:03
He will give us a lowdown on the Big 10, the Buckeyes, and what to expect in the college football season upcoming. Daryl Moose Johnston in about an hour, or two hours I should say, on the show. No, one hour. One hour.
1:16
One hour on the show. Uh, NFL on Fox. I went back and looked. He's been calling games on Fox since 2001. That [laughs] you know what?
1:25
[laughs] When I was writing down some questions yesterday, I kind of had that same thought. I was like- I-...
1:28
"This has been going on for a long time," I was feeling I was like, I was like, I know he's been in our lives- Yeah... for a long time, 'cause obviously the Cowboys, that- that's right in our wheelhouse- Mm-hmm...
1:36
for our age- Mm-hmm... uh, when, when, when they were running on Super Bowls. Three-time winner there. I, uh, I was kinda like, "Oh man, I feel old. That's 25 years."
1:44
[laughs] I always do the math, I go, "If someone was born the f- the, the first game that Moose Johnston called, they'd be 25." Yeah. Our coworkers are under, are around 25. Yep. Like- Yeah... think about that.
1:55
That's, that's [laughs] prob- I'm, I'm a little upset you just had to lay that out like that. [laughs] Thank, thank you, Dustin. I appreciate that.
2:01
And I'm sure, uh, we got Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith coming up later in the show, right? Just to really- Oh, for sure... just to really rub it in for Dave Ross- Yeah. Oh... 'cause I kinda promised that. Yeah.
2:09
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, we're going full cowboy here. Yeah, we're gonna go Jay Novacek. [laughs] We're gonna go Leon Lett. We're gonna... Ho- hopefully I'm not saying anyone who's not, not with us anymore.
2:16
[laughs] One of the, one of the Joneses is gonna hop on at some point. Yeah. Steve Fezzik will join. He, at 11:15 AM Eastern Time, fresh off Bet Bash where I'm curious if there were any fights with Steve Fezzik- Like-...
2:29
and so- someone on the internet who doesn't like how he acts. And his big, uh, his big panel today, his big pa- the ethics of touting, I believe is the name of it. Business ethics. What movie? [laughs] I don't know.
2:42
Billy Madison. [laughs] When they're playing the, the, the Jeopardy! game. Business ethics. I was j- I was j- what was it like last night? I used the Borophil line. Like- Yeah... chlor- bor- Bor- Borophil...
2:54
bor- I used that in biology so much that I had to do biology after school. [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] That teacher was like, "You're killing me, man. We get it. You saw Billy Madison in like 1998. Relax."
3:03
[laughs] It was 12 years ago. And finally, The Bear. Chris The Bear Felica will drop by at 9:00 or, yeah, 9:15 our time. 12:15 on the East Coast. I mean, this, it's, uh, three Bears at the desk, I guess.
3:15
No, s- no, no d- no, Chris is already back home. Oh, he's- He will not be here in studio. No. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He w- he was here for, for Bet Bash.
3:22
I think hopped on a flight yesterday, is back home because he's, uh, hopping on a cruise in a few days. That's low-key psychotic behavior. I'm not g- I'm not [laughs] gonna lie.
3:30
Like, that is- I, I keep, uh, getting surprised by, you know, like, we have a lot of people we know in town. It's great to see all these people. I keep trying to like, you know, see as many as I can.
3:40
I'm kinda, I keep getting surprised at how early [laughs] people are taking off this year. Like, everybody's out of here tomorrow at, like, the latest. Getting in, getting out. Yeah, yeah.
3:48
I'm like, I'm like, who- But I kinda have the same thought. I'm like, "You come all the way to Vegas and you're not staying through the weekend?" I- Who flies out of Vegas on a Saturday morning? Well, you know what?
3:56
The, the flights are probably [laughs] really cheap. They probably are. There's just probably not that many of them. [laughs] Yeah. That's the problem. But, uh, we begin today with football back in our lives.
4:05
In case you missed it, the Hall of Fame Game was an epic one. The Panthers with a [laughs] 33-30 win over the Cardinals. Carolina cashes as the favorite minus one. We go over that total of 34.
4:16
In fact, Carolina almost got there by their lonesome. That was the highest posted total when the lines came out since 2012, when it opened at 36 and a half. We saw steam all the way down to the under at 34, Kelly.
4:28
Underdogs unfortunately lose last night, but they are still on an 8-3-1 against the spread run, going back to 2013. The over, though, is now on a 5-0 run after going 7-2 to the under previously in the Hall of Fame Game.
4:42
That was the first ever Hall of Fame game for the Panthers. They pick up their first win, and the first cover in the pre-season for Dave Canales as the Panthers get the dub.
4:52
Now, there's a lot to digest as far as this is concerned, but just pulling back real quickly, I think what we saw out of Haynes King and Carson Beck, this goes with when we looked at quarterback depth charts yesterday- Mm-hmm...
5:03
on the show. Yep. It goes with my theory.
5:06
There are a lot of experienced college quarterbacks who are fighting for NFL jobs, where in the past they would've been guys who maybe started a year, maybe started two years, but these guys are three, four, five years, like- Yeah...
5:19
in college. They are so much re- more ready for what they're gonna see in the pre-season than the quarterbacks of years past.
5:25
That's why I think the, the, the world of just walking into the betting board and saying, "Well, it's the pre-season.
5:31
I'm gonna bet unders," I don't think it's a blind bet like it used to be back in the day because Haynes King put on a show.
5:37
Carson Beck put on a show, and they're just the first of two with a ton of experience in college that I think are gonna translate at least to the NFL pre-season.
5:45
Yeah, I, I, you know, I w- I, I feel like, Dust, it's a, I think it's a great point that you just brought up. I think that, I think that this is going to be... You gotta be a little careful with this, right?
5:55
'Cause this is only gonna apply to a few quarterbacks. Yes. And, like, Haynes King, uh, a- a- and Carson Beck just happened to play each other last night. They kind of both fit this, right?
6:04
So it's not gonna be every rookie quarterback. No, no, it's- But, but it's a-... multi-year. Yeah, if you, if you started three years of college, you, you're probably gonna be pretty good 'cause- Yeah...
6:11
because- You're going up against guys that you're better than I, I think it's a, I think it's an excellent point though.
6:16
For, for pre-season betting, sides and totals moving forward, how is the changes in college football affecting what we're seeing in the NFL? Might not be directly affecting NFL regular season play right away, right?
6:28
But pre-season games with guys like that, I think it's a great point. Haynes King goes 21 of 34, 180 through the air, 39 on the ground, two touchdowns. But the key was the end of the game. Yep.
6:38
He wraps it up from the five with no time left, getting into the end zone, running it in. And I, e- every time he ran the football, all I kept thinking was, "This is Taysom Hill." Mm. This is Taysom Hill all over again.
6:53
At Georgia Tech, Haynes King was not afraid of contact. No, he was not. He is a fast quarterback. He ran the fifth fastest 40 by a quarterback at the combine just seconds behind Anthony Richardson. He ran a 4.46.
7:08
Richardson was a 4.43. I didn't realize King ran that fast. Yes. He is a running back with quarterback skills. I'm telling you, if he can catch the ball, they, you can use him like a Taysom Hill. Yeah.
7:19
And I think that could make Carolina really dangerous with a guy like Dave Canales who I have a lot of questions about where the Panthers are, what their ceiling is coming into this year, and if they can replicate some of the lucky success that I think they had a year ago.
7:31
But if you had a weapon like King and it's a wrinkle into your offense, and people aren't really sure how you're gonna utilize him, if you've got a two-back set where it's Haynes King next to Bryce Young, if I'm Dave Canales, that's what I'm in the lab thinking about.
7:42
Now I, there, there's nothing that leads me to believe that that's the direction they're going. Mm-hmm. But Haynes King was incredible last night, and that was after what we saw from Carson Beck.
7:51
And I think Carson Beck is probably the big picture story because he has a chance to start real meaningful games for the Arizona Cardinals this year. He goes 15 of 19, 188 pass yards, one touchdown.
8:02
And I think there, the, we're gonna, we're gonna look at it from two angles.
8:05
'Cause I think you have to give him credit for looking the part, but you can also temper the enthusiasm by acknowledging the defense that he was going up against wasn't trying to throw anything exotic at him. True.
8:16
They weren't really trying to show anything. They weren't trying to confuse him. But he still gets credit because he looked composed, he looked the part, he threw some lasers, he took some shots.
8:26
And I think the big game experience that he went through in college at Georgia and then last year at Miami, it showed itself in this situation as to why he's ready to be a quarterback in the National Football League.
8:36
Yeah. Think he looked great. Uh, yeah, I mean, look, I think we're gonna say this whole pre-season, just be careful what you're taking away from it, right?
8:42
You know, like you say, you know who you're go- he's going up against. It's not w- who he'd be facing if he ends up starting games for the Cardinals, obviously.
8:49
But I, I mean, how can you not be, how can you not be excited about what you saw in that game out of Carson Beck if you're a Cardinals backer or a fan, right?
8:56
Like, this is your, your h- you weren't count- you're not counting on a ton from him this year or maybe even down the line, so if he actually pa- turns into something and pans out to be your starting quarterback, that's great.
9:07
Did it screw up the Cardinals' actual plans though, in how they're building a roster? Because they did sign Jacoby Brissett to be the starter. No. Gave him more money. No, no, no.
9:15
Because if Carson Beck comes in and he plays well, but he's not a franchise quarterback, he's like a good quarterback, and now you've avoided the opportunity to tank in year one of LaFleur to ensure you get a top five, top 10 pick.
9:28
What if Carson Beck wins them three, four, five games? [tsks] What are the odds though... Uh, okay, like, do you think he's, you think he could- When he's Kyler's shock...
9:37
he could give him a better chan- them a better chance to win than Jacoby Brissett? There is a world. Okay. And then like, then I think it's, then I think it's a g- great problem. Then, then it works.
9:45
It maybe hurts you in the draft, but you can't say for sure. If he's winning ball games, you can't say in the moment, "This isn't our franchise quarterback."
9:52
No, but many of, many of an NFL coach has been fired because they, they got fooled into thinking someone could be their franchise quarterback, and they were good, but they weren't good enough to take you to the promised land, which ultimately has you back on LinkedIn updating the profile.
10:05
Yeah, I kind of think the, if you're g- if he's good enough to push Brissett out of the way, I'm throwing him- Okay... in there right now.
10:09
Find out what I have before I gotta go back to the drawing board in next year's draft. Does it, and, and if it maybe h- hurts my draft position a little bit, fine, 'cause I need to figure out what I have.
10:19
You'll still get someone. Yeah. You'll still get someone. He's 25 to one for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
10:23
I think that's something a lot of people are considering because quarterbacks are gonna get an opportunity to put up really interesting numbers. He's gonna be throwing from behind when he plays.
10:31
The question is where in the schedule does, does- Right... does he actually take over- You just don't know that now... as the quarterback.
10:36
What, what if Jacoby Brissett is very competitive and they're in these games early? I don't know when you see Carson Beck. Yeah, I think you gotta wait on that. I'm not saying it, it, there's no chance.
10:45
He, he's not live for that award, but there's just no reason to bet that now. Wait, wait till you get some signal that he's actually gonna start some games.
10:52
A- and just, I, I'll have conversation to him versus Brissett just 'cause Brissett actually had a pretty good season last year. His passing numbers were not bad for how bad, uh, for how bad this Cardinals team was.
11:00
No, and, and if I'm the Cardinals looking at how their schedule starts, they're at the Chargers week one. They have Seattle week two. They're at San Francisco week three. [laughs] You go to New York week four.
11:09
Detroit's week five. The Rams are week six on the road in LA. Then week seven, it's Denver. I don't see a soft spot. This i- this is the same thing with Fernando Mendoza, right?
11:19
You're like, "Oh, we g- when, when are they gonna get him in?" And you pull up the schedule and you're like, "There is no obvious place to put him in."
11:25
I retract the statement of what if he walks them into four or five wins. [laughs] I retract that statement because until week 15 off their bye at the Jets at N- or verse the Jets at New Orleans verse the Raiders,
11:36
I don't know when that first win's coming. Yeah, I don't know either. I don't know when that first win's coming. This, this just goes back to our Dolph- our fewest wins bet, uh, conversation yesterday.
11:44
Dolphins, Cardinals, just bet 'em both. The American League Cy Young market is completely shifted. We'll examine that. Plus, this team can't stop beating the best of the bunches.
11:54
That's on the other side of a numbers game. [upbeat music] You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home.
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13:27
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Final stop to the Summer Sweet Tour.
13:44
I'm Dustin Sweetelson, that's Kelly Bidlin. My last day doing the day shift. I will go back tonight, on Sunday, as Cashing Out returns, and Gil Alexander will be back here on Monday, finally returning to his own program.
13:56
That's right. Well, you know, we'll see. He's gonna be on the air. I'm, I'm not, I'm not- Oh. Oh... I'm not s- I am not, uh, counting my chickens before they hatch. There we go. That's the, that's the phrase.
14:06
Thanks, Kelly. You nailed it. You... Hey, thanks. Yeah, thanks. You nailed it. I believed in you. Stumbling into that one a bit. Uh, until Danny, until I see Danny and Gil both here in person, I...
14:16
Yeah, you're- Gotta hold my breath... you're all by your lonesome these days. Yeah, yeah. That's not cool, man. You've been abandoned in your most important time. You're like Will Smith at the end of Fresh Prince.
14:24
That's exactly what, that's exactly what I told Gil yesterday. Just looking around the room. Yeah, just looking around. That's cool. With all my friends. While he's gallivanting around San Francisco. Yeah.
14:31
You're taking off for your own bright new show, special. I mean- Coming back, show coming back. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Going back to my old life. My watch has ended during the day. They're like, "Banish him to night."
14:42
[laughs] "Banish him to the night watch." Ooh, that might be a segment, the night watch. I- Oh, that's a good call... 'cause I can do Game of Thrones shtick. That's all I wanna do.
14:50
By the way, real quick, I, I'm not Paulie Howard. I'm not a movie expert or TV show expert where I watch everything. There's also odds for all this stuff these days, isn't there? I am trying to watch House of the Dragon.
14:59
I- I'm trying to watch season two still. Yeah, you brought this up the other day. You're not a big fan, huh? It's garbage. Yeah. So- someone tell me it gets better. I...
15:07
It is the, one of the worst shows I've ever watched. I did the other day. It gets better. It does? It gets better. The problem is I, I, up until the point where you're at, I would've said the exact same thing as you.
15:17
It, it, but like a- like I'm basically caught up. Is it great? No, it's not great. It's okay. 'Cause it was, it was never gonna be great, but I don't even find it entertaining, like, I find them so uninteresting.
15:26
Did, did you like the other one? What was it? Like- I haven't watched that, that, the Ser Duncan the Tall one. Yeah. I wa- I heard that one's great. It, it, it, I don't, it's okay. It's very different.
15:35
I know I'm not gonna, you know, I'm not gonna spoil it, but it's just very different how it's set up.
15:38
I mean, isn't it essentially just Arya and the Hound following each other thousands of years prior, something like, like? No, not at all. No, but, like, isn't that the relationship between Egg and Ser Duncan, like?
15:48
Oh, uh, yeah, I guess. So just like, yeah. There you go. It's a, it's a different world, though. Yeah, it could've just used the spinoffs of the original characters and then- Right, do, exactly. Exactly.
15:57
Also, I'd prefer Ge- George R.R. Martin be more involved in, in the, the bastardization of all of his characters as well.
16:02
It was, that was, like, the hardest part of just Game of Thrones when it started, was just figure, was learning and keeping track- Okay... of all these characters. So that, that is the, that is the thing that I wanna do.
16:11
I'm, I'm sure there's already a podcast that exists. And trust me, we're gonna get to AL Cy Young in a minute. I wanna make a podcast where it's like, "Oh, you just watched episode one of Game of Thrones?
16:20
Well, I'm gonna watch it with you. Put it back on, watch it a second time, and I will explain who each character is." Once you know who each character is- That's a great call...
16:27
'cause I, I've gone back and watched the show- And location... I've watched the show three times. Every time it's better because I pick up on so many subtleties in the script- Yeah... that I had no idea were there.
16:36
Yep, I agree with you. All right, well, as far as the script goes for the Cy Young Award in the American League, it has been completely flipped. Dylan Cease is your favorite.
16:43
Minus 115, Cam Schlittler is now plus money at plus 105. This on the heels of Cease yesterday at the Cubs in a losing effort. Not his fault. Seven innings, two hits, 10 strikeouts. ERA's down to 2.28.
16:57
He just barely s- uh, trails Schlittler there. Since the start of July, 43 innings, 56 K's, a.84 ERA, and a.67 whip. And yesterday we talked about this market, and I was dead wrong.
17:11
I said, "I'd probably still ride with Schlittler." My concern was I think Toronto wants to get Cease this award. I think they wanna push him for it 'cause it's all they really have to look forward to.
17:23
But the other element that I should've considered a little bit more in the moment is the reason I've been hesitant to believe in Schlittler is the innings limit. Mm-hmm.
17:30
And it's less about believing in Schlittler in a minimal way about finishing the season strong with the innings. It's more about I need to believe in Cease in a better way. Right.
17:39
Because Dylan Cease has done this before. He's pitched into late August, early September, towards October baseball in meaningful games where he, he just knows how to condition his body for this.
17:51
Cam Schlittler's going through it for the first time. That's why I believe the market move is correct. That's what it's indicating to me.
17:58
That the bookmakers believe that Cam Schlittler, as this season goes on, with the Yankees, who desperately need him to be an ace once October comes around, not just managing his innings, but the potential for him to falter here because his arm is doing things it's never done for this long a period of time.
18:15
Yeah. It's, uh, gonna be interesting to watch. I think you and I kinda hit the point the other day, right, where it was, "Eh, can Cease do enough to beat out Schlittler?"
18:23
And now we see that he is, and this number's starting to move. Well, real quick in the game, the Cubs won 3 to 2 in 11.
18:29
I'm not sure if you saw this, but Alex Bregman t- hit a two-run home run in the ninth to send it to extras. Believe the Cubbies were down to their final out in that spot. Mm.
18:38
And then PCA stole third in extras, and on a throwing error was able to score and walk it off in the 11th. Another example of PCA doing MVP things, making it happen on the base paths.
18:49
He has significantly more steals than Shohei Ohtani. And again, I have no skin in this game. I do not have anything on PCA to win MVP. He's minus $1.20. He is the favorite.
19:00
That is another example there of what he's bringing to the table right now, something that Shohei can't do. And big picture, the Chicago Cubs are now down to 13/1 to win the World Series.
19:11
Bet 'em after the deadline earlier this week at 20/1. I still think they're worth the look at 13/1. This is where I want a team to start getting hot. We are at that point. We're approaching the middle of August.
19:22
By next week we'll be there. Chicago's got a little bit of an injection of energy because of Gossman, because of Holmes, the moves they made at the deadline. But this is a group that just needed some arms.
19:33
They've got the bats. They've got the defense, something that everyone completely overlooks. I'm buying the Cubbies, man. I said it out on my, on Tuesday.
19:42
I, I'll say it again: this team is different than they've been all year, and the vibes couldn't be more immaculate. Yeah. This is, uh... I'll just bring it up right now.
19:50
I know we're gonna talk about it later, but the, the, this most wins in August market, this is crazy so far where we're at.
19:55
I mean, you got Red Sox 5-0, Braves 5-0, Cubs 5-1, Phillies 5-1, Rays, Reds, and Tigers all 4-1 to start this month.
20:04
So g- if you got a bet going this month, God bless you, 'cause there's some good teams there with so- with some good records out of the gate. Well, speaking of crazy wins and the Red Sox, they won 12-11 in 13 innings.
20:14
Caleb Durbin hits the walk-off in the 13th. They were down one in the ninth. They were down two in the 10th. They were down one in the 11th, one in the 12th.
20:21
They still came back and won, and they extend their winning streak to eight. They're 26 and 3 their last 29 games. On June 25th, they were 33 and 46. They are now 63 and 51. They just swept the White Sox. Insane.
20:34
That is the sixth straight sweep over a first-place team. This is one of the biggest anomalies you're ever gonna see. I, look, I, I'm, I'm gonna be wrong and I'm gonna be wrong loud about them if they make a run here.
20:48
And by the way, there is a, a rumor or at least news circulating that Garrett Crochet could return as an, a, a reliever for them.
20:55
Because he may not be able to be stretched out as a starter, they could inject that into their bullpen, which is already awesome. Garrett Crochet giving you one, two innings, throw in 101.
21:06
Ah, Roman Anthony could return at some point maybe. This Red Sox team is doing historical things right now, and yesterday was an example. Like the Cubs, sometimes it's just a team of destiny.
21:17
What's the exact to pay if we go Cubbies versus Red Sox in the World Series? The two teams most of our childhood were cursed and couldn't win one. That would be a fun one for us to watch. That would be... Let's see.
21:30
I've got the exact outcome market in front of me. Cubs versus White Sox. Cubs. Cubs over White Sox, 120 to 1. No, no, no. Cubs over Red Sox. Red Sox. Cubs beat Red Sox is 60 to 1. And then Red Sox- Yep...
21:45
I don't have that one yet. I'm, I imagine it's around the same number, though. 'Cause they're around the same number to win the World Series. 65. Yeah. I don't hate the idea of doing either of those.
21:54
We're, okay, so weren't the, weren't, didn't the Red Sox earlier in the season, or am I mixing up teams here, Dustin? Weren't they, didn't they score in every f- every frame that they h- uh, were at bat in?
22:04
Feel like something like that happened. Somebody did that and I thought, I thought it was the Red Sox. But then they do that, they do that in five consecutive innings, right, in the ninth or later last night.
22:12
That's crazy. Which is crazy. Well, you have the, you have the ghost runner on second to begin the extra innings, though. Still, though. Yeah, still, though. No. Like, it, it's wild.
22:19
And what they've done, well, you brought it up. What they've done in the last month, i- it's just wild. 26 and 3 over the last 29 games. I- it's, it's r- and you have to wonder how far it can go.
22:28
Like, like, h- how long do they keep playing this way, and does it translate to October where it's a series? Because it just feels to me sometimes, I get nervous about peaking too soon in baseball.
22:38
It's such a long season. You have to stay up for so long. There isn't a little blue pill that you can take to give you an extra few hours here. Uh, the, the Red Sox may just be too hot too soon.
22:48
That is my only concern about this team. 13 straight wins against teams with winning records. Tied for longest team by, uh, longest streak by any team in the expansion era, since 1961. Wow.
23:01
And then r- real quickly, the Tigers, it went exactly how I thought it was gonna go. I think I went two and one with the baseball bets. We lost the Hall of Fame Game parlay.
23:08
But Framber Valdez, seven innings, five hits, no runs, five strikeouts. He's gone seven innings in back-to-back starts. I thought he'd step up with Skubal gone.
23:17
I thought he would relish the role of now being the number one guy there. Also, news coming out, Jackson Jobe, their big-time prospect who was hurt all season long, he's expected to make his debut Saturday.
23:28
That could be an injection into this team. The Tigers are a game out of the wild card. They could make the playoffs t- still without Tarik Skubal on this team.
23:36
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23:43
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23:49
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23:57
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24:11
How are we looking thus far as Kelly sweats some bets live on A Numbers Game?
24:16
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:41
[upbeat music] From the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, Dustin Swedelson, Kelly Bidlin here. You there, however you may be tuning in, we appreciate you doing so.
24:49
Sirius XM Channel 158, YouTube TV, the Visa Watch App, radio affiliates across the United States of God Bless America.
24:56
15 minutes away, going to Columbus, Ohio, Bobby Carpenter checks in, previews the Buckeyes, the rest of the Big 10 in the college football season that is forthcoming.
25:07
Also top of this hour, 30 minutes away, Daryl Moose Johnston, three-time Super Bowl champion, how will his Cowboys do this season? Second year of Brian Schottenheimer.
25:17
As, uh, Dave Ross, I'm sure, is gonna be tuned in, locked in, ready to go. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Dave's weekend is not starting until our show is through.
25:25
We have the NFL Futures Draft coming up later this month we're gonna do. We all made fun of Dave Ross last year. Over under three and a half futures related to the Cowboys for Dave Ross in that draft.
25:36
Did I set the number too high? Two and a half? Let's go two and a half. T- uh, no, I think you did a, you, you did a solid... No, if it's two and a half over, it's like minus 170.
25:45
So three, three and a half is the number. Eh. Eh. Three and a half's the number. Well, then, you know, then, then the under's used heavily, you know? He wants the, the over. He wants NFC East.
25:53
Like, I think exactly three is a very good chance. He wants either Dak MVP, but I think someone will fight him for Dak passing yard leader. Mm, yes. I think that's the challenge for him. Were- Can he get those?
26:05
Weren't those, like, w- wasn't it that one and Joe Burrow passing yards leader, like the first two to go last year? Yes. [laughs] It was a- I know. It was like a race on Bengals and Cowboys offensive stats...
26:13
no one knew the strategy. And then Patrick Ma- Maher won because he hit, I think, one or two of his win totals, and he also had a bomb. Jonathan Taylor lead the league in rushing touchdowns, I believe. Mm.
26:26
So, like, everyone was so, like, obsessed with getting certain ones, but the reality is you had to hit your favorite of, like, the longer shots. You couldn't go...
26:36
People were going way too short with some of their futures. Yeah. You... The strategy has to be go all or nothing. It's, it's interesting. It's interesting 'cause th- and it's always...
26:44
I mean, there's theory, game theory to anything, right? But then you're sitting there, if you're watching everybody go with a bunch of long shots, you could easily win the thing just to, you know, going with...
26:51
I mean, you could bet a bunch of favorites and win the thing. True, if no one hits them all. If nobody hits. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
26:56
If you're just playing [laughs] like the, the I'm just, I'm just gonna have a good win loss here. Be like everybody's firing on 60 to ones or whatever. Yeah.
27:02
I remember it came down to the final week of the season, though. The, the, the, uh, the Futures Draft. So we'll do that later on this month. We get tweets. We get tweets.
27:12
At Dustin Swedelson, at Kelly Bidlin, at VSIN Live. Some of them rolling in here. By the way, I don't see the, the, the one that you were talking about with X-Pac's in it. I don't know why. Oh, you should.
27:22
You were tagged on it from James Fessler. I, uh, I, I don't know. I want to. I'll try my best on this. There's a lot of re- Yeah, you, you read this one... a lot of wrestling lingo.
27:27
Uh, James Fessler tweets in, "Last day of the Summer Sweed. Question for you, Dustin. If you," and myself, Kelly Bidlin, "are the new wager outlaws- Oh. [laughs]...
27:37
I feel like bougie Matt Brown is Shawn Michaels and zany Greg Peterson is X-Pac. You filling the post roid Triple H with Matt Youmans?" Oh, no, no, no.
27:48
If we're filling out the Generation X, I think Matt Brown needs to be there for the energy. I think that is a fact. I guess- I have no idea what we're talking about...
27:57
he would be Shawn Michaels with the leg kick, and he, like, he thinks he's the leader, but really he's not the leader. Do you know what I mean? Like, when we're out, Matt thinks he's in charge, but we- [laughs]...
28:06
we still tell him what to do. [laughs] Yeah. So he's not really in charge. For Triple H, who would be our Triple... It wouldn't be Youmans. Although, yeah, it would make sense. The personality makes sense there.
28:18
I think that works 'cause Youmans would be the real leader. He'd be the real alpha knocking around Matt Brown a little bit, so that, that's not a horrible call. It's not a horrible call.
28:26
I see James', uh, James' tweet now. I don't know why it's not popping up in my feed, but I do have it available to me now. We also got a couple tweets here.
28:34
Darren Frazier writes in, "The Summer Sweed coming to an end is sadder than Sandra D leaving for Australia at the end of Grease. [laughs] Back to long days and late nights on VSIN Live.
28:44
Uh, Gilly and Kelly are the best, but the bearded bros rank right up there." That, that, that's our original- Appreciate it, Darren... that, that's our original tagline. True. The bearded brothers.
28:51
And, uh, shout out to Patrick Maher for coming up with that. Chris Heath, unless he has some make the cut parlay, he's sweating. The sweat doesn't come till Sunday.
28:58
That's in reference to me saying you're sweating out the Wyndham Championship. Uh, correct me if I'm wrong. Once an event begins, you are technically sweating out the bet. Uh, for me, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's, that...
29:08
Yeah. That would be accurate. Now, I sweat when I tie my shoes and when I eat. [laughs] So it's a little bit different here. I don't... I mean, it's the same thing as, I don't...
29:13
Are you sweating in the second quarter of an NFL bet? Yes. I, I am. So yeah. Once the game starts, you're swe- I don't know... well, how's the sweat going? Get us updated on where we stand.
29:20
Currently, Ben James, which sounds like a, uh, Caucasian version of Mike Jones, he is your leader at 11 under.
29:27
Thigolla is nine under, tied with Alex Noren and Beau Hossler, a name I've never heard before, who has not teed off yet today. Then it's Chad Ramey, Max Greyserman. Sounds like people were at my bar mitzvah. Yeah.
29:38
Greyserman. Yeah. What is, what is going on here? I don't know a lot of the names at the top of this board right now. Yeah, it's a lot of long shots. Uh, Ben James, he's been playing some good golf re- uh, here recently.
29:47
But yeah, 11 under par. He's got a two-shot lead right now. Thigolla, Noren, little bit more familiar names to people who... Sahith Theela had a bonkers first round yesterday of front, front nine.
29:58
Um, yeah, and then you've got Beau Hossler. Look, good player, established player. Not, not anything crazy to write home about. Max Greyserman as, as, as well. Doug Gimme's had a good run here recently. He's through 14.
30:09
He's at seven under par. Uh, you've got four guys there at seven under. Live odds for this thing, outrights, uh, Benjamin James is your favorite, plus 245. That feels entirely way too short. Beau Hossler plus 880.
30:22
Sahith Theela plus 890. Davis Thompson then 18 to one. Tom Kim 22 to one. He is on my outright card. Has not teed off yet. Probably where I would direct people to look if they wanted to get in live.
30:35
I have not added anything though, uh, from, uh, day one. Well, how, how weird is this, th- this event specifically because it's not about the big bombers, it's about the iron play. Right.
30:44
And to, to me, my, my thought would be is like guys who are good with their irons are usually consistently good with their irons. Yes.
30:49
So, so the opportunity to find these adjustments, once someone has a good first day, don't you feel like they have a chance to hang on there, at least at the top of the board? They do.
30:59
The problem is there's so- th- this is such a scoreable course, Dustin.
31:01
It's just, it, it- So you can make up ground if, if you're, if you're playing from behind, you can change your strategy and, and just take a few more chances I- i- and with this, this is, this is a course, and you, you set it up well.
31:10
It is, it is a second shot golf course, approach matters the most. But what we're- you always see the stats that matter at the end of the tournament, it's putting, putting, putting.
31:17
So the guys that, these are relatively easy-to-hit fairways. We talked about it on Wednesday. You're gonna get yourself in trouble if you're spraying it off the tee.
31:24
As long as you're accurate off the tee, though, you, you have quality, and you have quality approach shots in, you gotta get up there and make putts. That's what's gonna end up deciding this event.
31:32
This is why you've seen so many long shots win it over the years. And yeah, kind of to your point, if you're consistent with the irons, you can get hot with the putter, anybody can go win this thing.
31:42
The Numbers Game, I'm Dustin Sweetolson, in for Gil Alexander today on the program. Kelly Bidlin alongside, as always. We're gonna take an ADHD timeout for a hyperfixation from me. Uh, the name Hideki.
31:53
We had Hideki Matsui, we have Hideki Matsuyama. By the way, he's bogeyed three holes in a row, so, so- Oh, really? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Oh, he was off to a really good start. You got bets against him, right?
32:01
I'm in, I'm in a contest against him. A contest against him? Yeah. We- D- Dustin and I were joking about that before the show- Yeah... because we watched him drain like a 50-foot birdie putt right before we went on.
32:09
And that's three bogeys in a row for old Hideki. So here's my HD- A- ADHD hyperfixation that I couldn't stop thinking about while you were talking, looking at his name on the betting board.
32:17
If you were a Yankee fan, you're a big golf fan, you had Hideki Matsui, Hideki Matsuyama, like that'd be a sick name to name your kid. Can I name...
32:24
If I w- if that was me, I'm not a Yankee fan, I'm not a golf guy, but Hideki Sweetolson would rule as a name.
32:28
That would, [laughs] that would be an awesome- That would be an awesome name [laughs] That would rule as a name.
32:33
[laughs] I mean, I, I know a, you know, little cross-pollination of the cultures here, but- You bringing that one up with the fiance? No. [laughs] She, she has agreed to naming the first child Jalen or Brunson. Wow. Yes.
32:45
Wow. Yes. That was quite an announcement on the air right there. No, no, she has, she has agreed, handshake- Brunson... it's done. I like Brunson better than Jalen. There's two- It's unique.
32:55
Well, one, based on the way it's going, if he's named Jalen, he's gonna be in the NBA because there's 4,000 people- [laughs]... named Jalen in the NBA right now.
33:01
Uh, well, maybe not with my genetics, but you get my point. [laughs] I think Brunson would be a cool name. It's a cool story. That is cool. I like it. Hey, 20 leagues, one mission. That's Just Win Bets, baby.
33:10
They're your premier source for daily sports betting picks. They break down the data so you can bet with confidence across the entire sports calendar.
33:17
Scan the QR code or visit justwinbetsbaby.com today and start betting smarter with Just Win Bets, baby. The name says it all. Most wins in the month of August in Major League Baseball. It's off to a good start.
33:29
You hinted at it earlier. Everyone's talking about the Red Sox. We need to at least acknowledge where, where the, the Bravos are. The, the Bravos are 5 and 0 this month.
33:38
The Braves have the, the second-best record since the All-Star break in all of baseball. They are plus 550 right now to have the most wins in the month. I don't hate that idea right now.
33:49
They were someone that I thought about 12 to 1 before it started to betting. I chose the Astros instead at 28 to 1. Cubbies 5 and 1 right now, as are the Phils. The Rays 4 and 1, the Reds 4 and 1, as are the Tigers.
34:01
And you have the Brewers and Padres at 4 and 2, followed by the Metsies at 3 and 2. And, uh, this was floating around yesterday.
34:08
I just want to bring it up because the New York Mets, after what they've accomplished, uh, being one of the most embarrassing teams in baseball this year, they actually have a path to making the playoffs. Now- Whoa...
34:20
it's a, it's an unlikely path, but Anthony DeComo, who covers the team for mets.com, he did tweet it out yesterday what they have to do the rest of the way, and I don't see that tweet right now.
34:29
[laughs] And I have it somewhere in my notes. Damn. I- What, what a Mets thing to happen right there. That... Oh, here it is. I'm gonna lay out a plan. 38, 38 and 9 over their final 47, and they'll make the playoffs.
34:40
Yeah, no problem. It's been done five times, most recently in 2017 by the Guardians, where Francisco Lindor was the shortstop for that team. He's the shortstop for the Mets. Here's what I'll tell you as a Mets fan.
34:49
Now, after they traded Luke Weaver, after they traded Brooks Raley, their depleted bullpen, they're gonna make this interesting for about four weeks, and then in the final home stretch, it's gonna come to a screeching halt.
35:02
Mm. Epic disaster coming as far as that is concerned. Speaking of the Mets, they open up a series with the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC. I like a play in that game. We'll break it down on the other side of a Numbers Game.
35:15
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36:39
The sports betting network [upbeat music] Back on a numbers game, Dustin Swedelson hanging out with Kelly Bidlin, Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
36:51
You can always catch the show Sirius XM Channel 158, YouTube TV, VSiN Watch App and radio affiliates across the United States. God bless America and Game Plus- There you go... up in Canada.
37:02
College football's gonna be here before you know it. We are just a few weeks away from week zero, and then the big boys get going in week one. And our VSiN College Football Betting Guide is out right now.
37:12
There's a few surprising things, but I think the one that jumped out to me immediately, when we were all doing our predictions of who's winning the national championship, we only had one out of 22 people here at the network pick the Ohio State Buckeyes to win the national title.
37:28
And I'm trying to figure out why we're all down on Ohio State because, sure, they lost a lot, but if you look at the NFL draft every year, they always lose a lot. Yeah.
37:37
And they lost a lot in 2006, when our next guest was selected out of Ohio State.
37:42
He is Bobby Carpenter, former linebacker for the Buckeyes, a national champ in '02, also hosts the Bobby Carp Show and Morning Juice on 97.1 The Fan out in Columbus.
37:52
Seven years in the NFL, and he joins us on the Progressive guest line.
37:56
Bobby, does that surprise you that Ohio State, who is the betting favorite to win the title, out of our 22 people here who are pretty sharp and follow college football, only one of us chose the Buckeyes to win it all?
38:08
It's, uh, it's interesting, uh, saying that. You mentioned college football is almost here. I mean, heck, most ca- uh, teams have started. I was just leaving Ohio State's practice right now.
38:16
And, you know, one of 20, I mean, I guess if you look at it and you're trying to find value, there's not a lot of value usually on the odds-on favorites, so you're trying to find, obviously, something alternative of that.
38:27
But, I mean, this is just who you think's gonna win it. I'm curious, who was the number one team picked or the, the team most picked by, uh, all your f- all your analysts? I believe s- uh, seven went with Notre Dame.
38:39
There was a tie between Oregon and Georgia at four or three, I believe. It's interesting. I, I like Notre Dame a lot. They've got a really good team with CJ Carr. Marcus Freeman's doing a great job.
38:50
They lost, a dec- they lost some, but they, they returned a ton. But this...
38:54
The reality is in this, it's really hard to figure out exactly what these teams are unless you really know them, and you've been able to be around them and see them in spring ball, just because
39:05
this is unlike it ever was before.
39:07
The, I mean, Ohio State added 50, I think 52, 51 new players between high school players, some of which are gonna contribute and play, and then a lot of transfer portal players, um, most of which are gonna contribute and play, and play significant roles.
39:21
So it's really hard to kind of figure out with some of these teams the level of integration they have and the speed of assimilation, how that works.
39:32
And when you're like Ohio State or Texas, you play each other in week two. Like, you've gotta make sure the guys you brought in are greased up and ready to go from the jump.
39:40
Now, with that and the 12-team playoff, y- Ohio State's got an incredibly difficult schedule this year, which, you know, I, I think that that might play into why the, you know, people think they might not be able to win a national title.
39:50
And, you know, that's, that's a, that's a real concern.
39:52
But also I think it, it does kind of test you and prepare you should you come out of it healthy, that you're better positioned to be ultim- ultimately be able to go make a run in the CFP.
40:03
And the defense lost a lot, right? Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, Arvelle Reese, they're off to the NFL. But I wanna start with the offense.
40:10
I gotta tell you, Bobby, I, I, I thought, I thought Julian saying, when I looked back on last year, in my head, I went, "You know what? He was good. He was a good game manager."
40:19
The numbers are a little bit more eye-popping than I thought. I mean, he had a [laughs] really good year, first year as a starter. 3,600 yards, 32 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
40:29
Do you believe there's an opportunity for him to elevate his game this year and be like a, a true quarterback that we're used to seeing at Ohio State that puts on these dominant showings?
40:40
Well, it, it's irony you bring that up. And a lot of people kind of look at it where... I mean, he did, he was a Heisman Trophy finalist. [laughs] Like- Yeah. Yeah...
40:47
you know, talking about him being a [laughs] game manager. He was, he was in New York.
40:51
And I think early on, and especially people who watched the Texas game last year, and I think both him and Arch, like Sark and Ryan Day, both them, of them were trying to keep the reins on those guys and not put them in a position to lose the game.
41:05
As the season goes on, you begin to trust your first-year starters more.
41:08
And, you know, I, I always love to go back to this old adage of Bill Parcells, that he, he only liked to draft quarterbacks that had started for at least two seasons, ideally three, 'cause w- returning with expectations I think matters.
41:20
And people go back and watch, like, okay, well, you're the guy now. It's not a quarterback battle. You're not a first-year starter. You're expected now to elevate the players around you and elevate your team.
41:29
And I felt like watching Julian through the spring, seeing him through the summer, he has a more demonstrative tone to him. He looks to be more in greater control of the offense.
41:39
And I think they're gonna let him do some things.
41:41
And, you know, for guys that just arrives here f- on, on the transfer portal, or freshmen, like, all they know is Julian Sayin, starting quarterback, Heisman Trophy finalist.
41:50
And so I think there's a level of cachet and understanding that he has, that they have around him where, you know, he, he's becoming more that alpha dog, and he, I think he's em- embraced that role, and I think they've tried to develop him in it.
42:03
And so I think he can get better. He's got great receivers. They're gonna ch- tweak the offense a little bit with Arthur Smith. But I think those numbers could improve even more. Yeah.
42:12
Bobby, I, I think big things expected from him. And we talked about some of the turnover on the roster though.
42:17
Is there, is there a position group or a couple players that have really stood out to you so far that you think are gonna surprise some people once the season starts? Yeah.
42:26
You, you start looking defensively, which is where they lost a ton, and you have, you have four guys that are in the top, you know, 40 picks, three in the top 11.
42:35
Um, I really like that linebacker, Peyton Pierce, who played a decent amount last year. He's gonna, you know, be the guy that takes over as the signal caller. He'll be good.
42:43
Um, you know, Jalen McLean returns, and he was- Kind of never gotten the credit he deserved because he was playing beside Caleb Downs last year, and so him at safety's gonna be big.
42:52
They paired him up with Earl Little, who's a very dynamic player, and so that should be really exciting to see what those guys can ultimately do.
43:01
And then, you know, offensively, trying to figure out who this, you know, their, their third or second receiver opposite of JJ Smith, who that is, is gonna be awesome to see because, you know, they've got, you know, some freshmen coming in.
43:14
You know, Brock Boyd, Jaquavion Guilford, like those guys are really good. You know, Chris Henry is in the mix. They brought in, uh, McEwen from U- uh, UTSA who can blow the top off the defense.
43:25
Watched him hit some deep balls today.
43:26
So they've got a lot of opportunities to be able to do that stuff, and there's, there's some guys that I think you're gonna be pleasantly surprised when you see them out there that may not be hou- not household names today, but will develop into that here in the coming weeks.
43:40
Yeah, and this defense under Matt Patricia, super versatile with guys like Kenyetta Jackson. You mentioned Little coming in from Florida State and Alabama. Uh, they always have corners. They always have pass rushers.
43:51
On offense, if I was to, to, to give you the option, Heisman Trophy ceremony. We talked about Sain being there last year.
43:57
You think it's more likely Sain's there, or you think Jeremiah Smith in his final season with the Buckeyes, he winds up being a Heisman finalist?
44:05
The thing is, I don't know if you can decouple those, which is crazy because if Jeremiah has a good season- Yeah... like Julian probably...
44:11
I mean, he's throwing him the ball, and so I, I think there was just a little circular reference.
44:15
If Jeremiah goes, I think Julian is definitely there, and I think that there's a good chance that he might be the Heisman Trophy winner. I know Jeremiah's looked at it. His goal is to get there.
44:24
As a non-quarterback, like that's, that's kind of the apex. I mean, Devante Smith won it, I get that, but you know, you do with it what you can.
44:32
I, I would say it's more likely that Julian goes just 'cause when you look at it historically, I mean, most of the guys that get there are quarterbacks, and so probably two-thirds to three-fourths are.
44:42
And so I'm gonna roll with the QB just simply off the numbers. Bobby Carpenter's our guest, former Buckeye great, national champ in '02. The Big 10, Ohio State is plus 180 to win it. Indiana's two-and-a-half to one.
44:54
Oregon's plus 260. Who scares you the most between those two at the top? Oh, that's really interesting. I, I'd probably have to say Indiana, 'cause they beat Ohio State last year. You know, they were, they were good.
45:09
They've got a lot coming back. You know, they've got a break-in Hoover at quarterback with Signetti.
45:13
Like over the last two years, he's had transfer quarterbacks and both of them have played great, so why would you think that they're not gonna play great this year? Like, it, it should be the same way, and you...
45:21
I think it's wild to think that, you know, there's an expectation where Indiana's just going to be good. But I think that's where we're at. And Dan Lanning, this is a great opportunity.
45:29
He's got, you know, a, a great quarterback coming back. We'll see if they can continue to develop and how good they are, and you know that they're very talented, but ultimately, can they win big games in the playoffs?
45:42
That's the one thing that's kind of, I wouldn't say haunted, but Dan Lanning, that's the question he, he has to be able to answer.
45:48
And you know, we're getting to the point now where you start talking about, you know, are you a big game coach?
45:53
And he's won big games in the regular season, but I think right now I would lean with Kurt Signetti and give him, you know, the edge. Just, you know, simply they're good and they're coming off a national title.
46:02
That is a, a big statement. Bobby, we really appreciate you doing this today. Look- uh, looking forward to chatting with you throughout the football season here.
46:08
Everyone check out The Morning Juice, 97.1 The Fan in Columbus, Bobby Carp Show as well. All the information on his X page, @bcarp3. Thanks so much, man, and, uh, enjoy the football season. Yeah. Hey, my pleasure.
46:20
Thanks, guys. You have a good one. I thought that was a big statement at the end. Mm-hmm. I thought him saying that Indiana... And we just talked about it on the show yesterday.
46:27
Matt Humans with a great write-up talking to bookmakers from around the country. The public is not buying the Hoosiers returning to prominence. Yeah. And it's so funny. It's like, guys, it, this is Signetti.
46:38
If this was college basketball, you'd believe because college basketball we're conditioned to believing you could turn over a roster- Right, yeah... and just start over. So true.
46:45
And, and when I first started betting on, on stuff, Patrick Maher would be like, "Dude, you're getting way too caught up in all this semantics with college basketball. You bet on coaches. That's it."
46:57
And if you're gonna bet on coaches, why wouldn't you bet on Kurt Signetti? So- Yeah... that's my thought there. We're gonna kick it to the National Football League. The rest of the NFC East has improved.
47:08
Are they good enough to not knock the Eagles off their pedestal? We'll examine that with Daryl Moose Johnston next on A Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music]
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Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
