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Aug 8, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 8, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 8, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:33
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek still doing his thing.
0:22
In for the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. Wyatt Tomchek, the voice of UNLV Women's Basketball. What's happening? Another, another beautiful day. It's, it's crack day. Crack day. Zach and Crack coming up.
0:32
Zach Cohen, uh, Bill Krackenberger on Unscripted, of course. Uh, it is Bet Bash week, so we will have Matt Buchalter in today from +EV Analytics.
0:40
Uh, it's kind of been an annual tradition for Matt to come over, uh, during Bet Bash to give his alternate season win totals plays in the NFL. We've talked about this for a long time on this show.
0:53
Drew Dincic actually deserves the credit.
0:54
He was the first person to sort of lock into this, how the alternate season win totals market is probably what you ought to look at first when doing pre-flop bets in the NFL, uh, because the notion that those are priced correctly is probably a fallacy.
1:07
And so Matt has a method of, of arriving at his, which has been quite successful. I think two years ago he was ridiculously successful. Last year, maybe not quite, but, but also successful, as I recall.
1:18
Uh, but it has to do with, uh, coordinators and coaches and whether they're stick from one year to another, or they change. We'll get into all that with him.
1:26
Plus, I think he has a comment on a couple of awards markets as well.
1:30
Um, and Joe Fortenbaugh from Daily Wager, old friend, which I'm not sure if we have him on Skype, but we won't be able to see if he has a mustache or not, which is the big thing that we always like to see with Jo- with, uh, Joe.
1:39
When I was doing the, the, the photo, you know, you gotta do the photo for somebody who's on the phone. I was like, "I gotta find a good mustache photo," and I just was unable.
1:45
That's, that's a, that's a, that's a very really, really healthy stash right there. Did the, uh, did the White Sox just fire Pedro Grifo, their manager? Did this just happen?
1:53
Pedro Grifo, the, uh, White Sox, uh, manager, has been, uh, let go. Um- 'Cause that's almost a good thing for him. It's like, "Oh, I don't have to deal with this anymore." [laughs] I believe you said this off air.
2:03
You said, "Right as he was getting them rolling." Uh, you know, they're now on a losing streak. They, they- I know. I know... the streak lasted only one game.
2:09
A, uh, they snapped a 21-game, uh, losing streak, which tied the American League record for, uh, for that kind of failure. Uh, did get a win, but then lost again last night. 28 and 89 on the season. Is that good?
2:22
I'm told that's not good. You know, some people have 28 wins by, like, the month of May. Yeah. No, that's true. Very true. Oof. Um, so he has been, uh, relieved of his duties. That's the breaking news.
2:32
All right, so here's the deal. Uh, last night, um, you know, I do my, my tennis handicapping every night, and I usually go men's side, then women's side. And every match I take a look at based on the data.
2:46
And on the men's side last night, uh, I didn't like anything. I didn't like anything at all, and then went out to dinner, went to the Legacy Club for Bet Bash last night.
2:55
Um, so I, you know, I was sort of lulled into this thing where it's like, "Yeah, the men's side wasn't, there wasn't anything there," 'cause it's all, by the way, the men are in, uh, the men are in Montreal, and it was just, you know, it's the round where it's, like, a lot of big favorites, but they're all kind of justified.
3:07
And then I went to the ladies' side and I'm like, "Um, are these numbers for real?" At least according to my numbers, there is a lot of opportunity on some of these matches today. And so, um, it's been great.
3:20
Since grass season, again, it's been nothing but positive in terms of the matches. And by the way, can you, can you do this for me, Wyatt?
3:27
Uh, next year, can you just, once grass season starts, could you just send me a reminder not to bet it at all? That's about, what, uh, m- about July, uh, it starts?
3:34
Yeah, just a, like, five, six weeks starting, you know, late June, early July. I gotcha. Or, or do we, do we need to petition to m- uh, make it turf? Well, no. You can let them have it. Okay.
3:43
I just need to, I just need to roll it back. But, you know, once it's, once it's clay or hard courts, it, it tends to work out well. And so today, look, I could fall flat on my face with these, but I have six plays, and
3:55
many of them are dogs. Um, well, four of them are dogs. One is a giga- gigundous dog, as, uh, Todd Wischnev would say. Um, let me just get through them. Um, Moyuka Uchijima I have at plus 261 against Ludmila Samsonova.
4:13
I used to, uh, pronounce it Samsonova, but I'm told it's Samsonova. Um, again, numbers play. Uchijima's hard court data is very good. Samsonova always a, a dicey proposition on the other side.
4:25
So at plus 261, um, that's what, again, and these are all at vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport, all of their bets are at vsin.com/picks for s- for subscribers, by the way.
4:39
Uchijima at plus 249, still very playable. I'm doing these from bottom up now. Peyton Stearns plus 264 going up against Maddie Keys.
4:46
Maddie Keys at her best should take down Peyton Stearns, but Maddie Keys has had injuries, and when she comes back from injuries, she tends to, what's the technical term for this, stink.
4:56
So, uh, Peyton Stearns plus 264, flyer on her against Maddie Keys. Marta Kostyuk, I didn't expect this to come through, 'cause Elina Svitolina is very good, Elina Svitolina, uh, Gael Monfils' wife.
5:09
Marta Kostyuk, plus 151 as a play against Svitolina. Katie Boulter is the one favorite on the board. Got her at minus 132 against Beatriz Haddad Maia. Let me see where Boulter is right now.
5:19
Um, by the way, on Stearns, Stearns is plus 194, so again, pays to be a subscriber, 'cause this was plus six- two- plus 264 when I put it in last night. I would still play it at plus 194.
5:30
Don't let it get too much, you know, less than that. Um, in terms of Kostyuk at plus 151, she's plus 138. Don't let that get lower than plus 130. Boulter at minus 132, this is the one I'm worried about.
5:42
Again, CLV so far on all these, you know what that means. Boulter's the exact same price. You could pair at minus 132. And then there's this at the top, and I'm playing this two ways.
5:51
Aryna Sabalenka, favorite to win the tournament, is going up against Yue Yuan. Y-U-E Y-U-A-N. I took Yue Yuan plus the games at plus six and a half games for the match against the great Aryna Sabalenka, minus 125.
6:06
I also couldn't believe- And I know what you're thinking. You're like, "Really, Gil? You think she's gonna beat Sabalenka?" Based on the numbers, this ought to not be anywhere close to what it is. She's plus 924. What?
6:22
How is that possible? By the way, looking now, she's plus 838. Still playing. Uh, when you, once you get that high, it's really not as big of a difference as it seems. But those are the six plays.
6:31
So two in the Yue Wan, Sabalenka match, both on the games and on the money line. Uh, Bolter's the favorite, and then three dogs, Kostyuk, Stearns, Uchijima.
6:39
Not quite the prices they were yesterday, especially in the case of Stearns going up against Maddie Keys, but I'd still play them all, just don't let them fall anymore.
6:46
So six tennis plays, all on the ladies' side in Toronto today on the tennis tour.
6:53
Um, baseball, of course, Mets did win last night for the, uh, the August monthly bet, so the Mets get to, uh, 500 on the early stretch unless... They're like in 10th place here in the early going. Again, way too early.
7:05
Update on standings, quite frankly, we know that. Um, but just in case you, you were wondering and you have bets on these team.
7:11
Diamondbacks with their sweep of the Guardians yesterday in a double header, five and one right now in the lead, and the Cubbies are the only other team with five wins. They're five and two.
7:19
So D-backs, who won July, won it outright at Circa, dead heat with the Mets in July at William Hill Caesars. They're off to another great start, five and one.
7:27
I'm telling you, man, Diamondbacks, you should not be surprised if they get back to the World Series. You really should not be. Diamondbacks five and one, Cubs five and two. Uh, Padres, Twins, Red Sox, Giants.
7:38
Giants, adorable, still chugging along, and Royals, all with four wins. And then it goes Brewers, Yankees, and then the Mets right now, three and three in 10th place. Again, early.
7:47
But this gives us entree, Wyatt, just to, when we track these, to just take a glance, and I wanted to bring you into this because
7:54
Will Hill texted something about his Yankees yesterday, which is, "Isn't it amazing that the Yankees," at the moment he texted it, they ha- I think they had the best record in, in baseball, but after the end of the night, still, as bad as...
8:06
So I'm just gonna go through these, and you tell me which is the most meshugana thing in your mind when you think about what the perception is of baseball right now and what the actual standings is.
8:16
So the Yankees, despite their massive swoon in June and July, mid-June all throughout the month of July, despite their massive swoon, and despite the Orioles' inability to make any,
8:28
you know, space between themselves and that Yankee swoon to take advantage of that, the Orioles and the Yankees are only a half game behind the Phillies for the best record in Major League Baseball, despite all of that.
8:40
All right, so that's choice number one. I'm gonna ask you, what's the, which is the most meshugana of all this?
8:44
The fact that the Yankees and Orioles are still only a half game behind the Phillies for the best record in entire Major League Baseball. Uh, choice number two, this one's a little out there.
8:54
Think about what you think about the Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland A's. They suck, right? Both those teams.
9:01
The Angels are only, in quotes, only nine games out of first place in the AL West, and the Athletics are only 12 out.
9:10
I know that's still, like, a long way, but I think most people think of those teams as so bad that they'd be, like, 25 out. Be like the White Sox. The Angels are nine games out of first place.
9:20
I'm saying, i- in an AL West where the Astros now lead by a half game, by the way. All right, that's choice number two.
9:25
Choice number three is that your Braves, sorry about this, are now only a half game into the playoff picture. They're the third wild card spot. They're only a half game ahead of the Mets. That's choice number three.
9:36
Uh, choice number four. You know the Dodgers, the big, bad Dodgers? Mm-hmm. They only have three game leads over both the Diamondbacks and the Padres here on August 8th. Three game leads, that's it.
9:48
And your final choice in terms of which is the most meshugana, the Guardians, for as great as they were early in the season, we had them in March, April, we had them in May,
9:56
only a three and a half and four game lead respectively over the Twins, and the Bobby Witt-led Royals. And let me just say this again before you answer this about Bobby Witt. Since June 30th, he is hitting 464.
10:13
That's a batting average. 464, 58 hits, 10 homers, 31 RBIs, 36 runs scored. By the way, he hit two homers last night. But you still can't bet him for MVP because Aaron Judge exists.
10:27
What's the m- of all those things, what to you is the most startling?
10:30
Well, the reason why the Mets are within half a game is 'cause the home plate umpire for the Braves and Brewers games, he needs to be shot to the moon. He was awful last night. But nonetheless, I think it's the Dodgers.
10:39
I, for, for as great as we th- uh, you know, LA started this year, I know injuries have really ha- hampered them, but they spent so much money on Ohtani, and they're only three games up on the Diamondbacks and the Padres.
10:51
Like, wow, that's, that is very surprising to me. Like, the, the Padres, for how bad they were at the beginning of the year, we're like, "Well, it was just kind of that one-year run."
10:59
Like, this NL West race is very interesting. A lot of injuries. Obviously, Freddie Freeman was absent for a bit because of his son's ailment. Um, but I, I might agree with you on that.
11:10
I think that would surprise the casual fan the most if they just popped up now. Diamondbacks and Padres just three games behind the Dodgers in the, uh, NL West.
11:18
And all of this to say, as I have been all week, it's the most wide open baseball
11:26
season in early August that I think I can remember, where there is not a single team, not a single team in baseball, has a win percentage of 600, and it is a free-for-all, and you ought to be betting accordingly with futures.
11:41
Normally, I wouldn't say, "Hey, go crazy on futures." Go crazy on futures. Take some swings. We'll come back. Zach Cohen next with all of his plays.
11:48
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12:06
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12:41
If you're looking to subscribe to VSiN for the first time, please visit vsin.com/best, uh, special that is, vsin.com/special to sign up today. That's V-S-I-N/special. You look like you wanna chime in on that. No?
12:55
Uh, you know, there's behind the scenes stuff that I was trying to- Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you were- I, I was getting the look of when to, when to talk to, uh, the crew back there- [laughs]...
13:02
and you, you gave me the look. I'm like, "Oh, no." Oh, no. "You're gonna ask me a question." Oh, no. It's about to happen. The Atlanta Braves got screwed yesterday. That's my final answer. Okay. Well, yeah.
13:10
You know what I will say before we get to Zach? Yes. Uh, so the Braves had a four-man booth yesterday of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, and Jeff Francoeur. Wow.
13:18
It is, it is so fun to kinda listen to them banter with each other, and then they just pull up all the, all the old highlights of them, uh, you know, messing up.
13:26
Like, Chipper Jones ran over Greg Maddux one time trying to field a fly ball. So it's, it is awesome to hear those broadcasts. Mm. Yeah, it's great.
13:32
Um, and they all have a great relationship to this day, which you don't always see, um, from the heyday of the Atlanta Braves. And when I say heyday, Wyatt, I think you know what I mean.
13:41
Just one World Series title when they should've had more. Good thing I wasn't, uh, that old when it happened. Although, fun fact, uh, my dad does have th- that one World Series ring. Yeah.
13:51
W- was it 14 straight NL East titles, I believe it was? I think, I think it was, 'cause, uh- Your dad has a s- a ring? Yes, he used to, uh, work for the minor league affiliates, uh- Oh...
13:59
for the Atlanta Braves, so- Cool... he has a 1995 World Series ring. There you go. All right. That is why I'm an Atlanta Braves fan, for everyone who wants to know. Gotcha. Braves, Packers... Bucks. Bucks.
14:08
Michigan Wolverines. Okay. Vegas Golden Knights and anything UNLV. [laughs] Wyatt Tomchek, everybody, in for, uh, Kelly Billings. Zach Cohen joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
14:20
Zach can be found on the Twitter machine @bettingonx. What's happening, Zach? Not much. How you guys doing? Doing very well. Did you have any tennis plays today at all? Let's start there.
14:29
Uh, I played Rinki Hijikata plus one-and-a-half sets against Grigor Dimitrov. Uh, I got that, like, plus 150. Now down to plus 105. I think I'd still play it because it is out there at plus money.
14:39
Uh, Dimitrov's coming off, you know, an abductor str- uh, tear that he suffered at Wimbledon. Uh, it's his first singles match back. He's also going from grass to hard courts. Uh, Hijikata's a pretty tricky player.
14:49
He plays with a lot of power from the baseline, has won three matches already in Montreal.
14:53
I just think that he's going to have, you know, his feet underneath him already, and I think Dimitrov's going to have to work his way into form a little bit early in the match.
15:00
So I think that Dimitrov probably ends up getting it done in the end. Uh, he's just been so good this season, but I think he'll get off to a slow start, and Hijikata will pounce on him a little bit.
15:08
Have you made any US Open futures plays? Not yet. I, I'm still looking for, uh, for a little on-court time from Jannik Sinner.
15:16
I think that that would be my pick to win if, uh, we see him a little bit healthy heading into that tournament. He's basic- uh, metal health stuff has been a concern for me lately.
15:25
You know, the, the illnesses, the injuries, uh, the fatigue in matches.
15:29
But I do think that when he's playing, he's the best player in the world, and I think that when he's playing on hard courts especially, he's the best player in the world.
15:35
I, I, I think it's a little interesting to see Djokovic already priced ahead of him after that win at the Olympics.
15:41
I, I, I wrote in my preview for that Olympic match between Alcaraz and Djokovic that I, I think Alcaraz had been, you know, seven out of 10 times against Djokovic. I think we caught one of those three times in Paris.
15:52
I just think he was smacking the ball, finding the lines, uh, and just played unbelievable. I think, I think you're absolutely right. Uh, we wanna get to, 'cause you have a bunch of college football plays.
16:01
Uh, you were integral to our college football betting guide. Um, but before we do that, there is United States, uh, Olympic basketball today. It is the semifinals.
16:10
Uh, Germany-France, Germany favored by six, and then we, if I may say so myself, USA, favored by 15 and a half over Serbia. Any thoughts on either of the semis? Yeah, I had plays on both games.
16:24
I, I think that France is actually gonna win that game, so I, I would put a little spread money on that, but I'd also sprinkle the money line.
16:30
I, I just think that Vincent Collet made some really bold and, and helpful changes before that game against Canada, you know, putting Evan Fournier and Rudy Gobert on the bench.
16:39
I think that they were playing a little bit too big.
16:41
The idea of that Victor Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert front court was exciting when we first heard it, but you know, as much like the NBA, you really can't play two guys that big.
16:49
I think that they played a lot better, you know, bringing Ntilikina into the lineup, uh, playing Guerschon Yabusele bigger minutes next to Wembanyama. I think that that's going to help them a lot against Germany.
16:58
Germany pounded them in group play, but I, I think it's gonna be a much different game this time around. I think that Ntilikina's actually gonna be the X factor for France.
17:06
Uh, Dennis Schröder had 26 points, nine assists, uh, the last time these teams met. I can't see him doing that with Ntilikina as, you know, the primary on-ball defender on him.
17:14
He's still a very good defensive player, even if his offense was kind of what made him flame out in the NBA. So I think it's gonna be a really close game, that France is gonna have some chances to win.
17:23
It's gonna be obviously a crazy atmosphere with them playing at home, playing with a little more energy after the win over Canada.
17:29
Yeah, it wouldn't, and it, and it wouldn't be a bad bet, you know, knowing that a, a favorable whistle or two might go the way of France- Yeah... uh, playing, of course, in Paris. Uh, nothing on the USA game?
17:39
No, I did take Serbia on that one, too. I got it at 17 and a half. I guess I'm a... I, I probably would have wanted a 15 and a half, although, it's still pretty enticing to me.
17:48
I, I just think that this, these odds say a lot after we've seen two 30-point wins for Team USA. You know, seeing the spread down at 16 or so is a little surprising. They're trying to get people to bet USA.
18:00
Uh, Serbia I think is held back a lot, you know, s- strategically in the two match-ups we've seen between them.
18:05
And one of the big things that we've seen in the two games between these teams already is that Nikola Jokic, uh, when he's gone to the bench, these games have gotten out of hand.
18:13
I don't think we're gonna see him on the bench in this game. I think he's gonna flirt with 40 minutes. Uh, he played, you know, 39 minutes of a possible 45 in the overtime win over Australia.
18:22
I just don't see him sitting in this one, and I think that he's gonna be able to pick apart the Team USA defense after having, you know, seen it twice now.
18:29
All right, Zach, let's rapid fire our way out of this with a bunch of college football. Again, College Football Betting Guide out for everybody to purchase right now. Uh, you did a whole bunch for that.
18:38
Let us start with a bet to win it all, to win the College Football Playoff. Where did you land? I went with Alabama. I just thought that the number was really good at, you know, at 14 to one.
18:49
I think that Kalen DeBoer's gonna do a really good job for Nick Saban, and I don't think it's gonna take him a lot of time to really get comfortable there.
18:55
I mean, he's won everywhere he's been, and he's won quickly everywhere he's been. But now he's stepping into a situation where, you know, his team is loaded with five-star talent. He returns a really good offensive line.
19:04
He returns probably the best dual-threat quarterback in college football in Jalen Milroe. Uh, he gets Georgia at home early in the season.
19:11
I, I wonder if maybe Georgia is gonna be a little shell-shocked by just seeing this DeBoer offense for the first time.
19:17
I think that's a really good opportunity for, you know, Alabama to win a game that potentially could win them the SEC.
19:22
And if they do win the SEC, they're obviously going to have a really good season in the College Football Playoff. So I, I thought that that number was a little too long. I also like their defense.
19:30
I think Kaden Womack is a really good defensive coordinator. Uh, and the team is just... You know, like I said, it's pretty loaded.
19:36
I know people are a little bit worried about players that went out in the transfer portal, but I don't really think we have to worry about Alabama from a talent perspective.
19:43
I think that if he's able to coach these guys up, which I think he will, I, I think this team is better than the team he had at Washington.
19:49
I, I just don't really see much keeping them from being an elite team right away. Man, wouldn't that be something if Bama wins it all, uh, the year after Saban? Uh- Yes... sticking in the SEC,
19:58
you do not have a play on these guys to, uh, to win the conference, but you are very bullish on Texas A&M. Yeah, this is another one where I just think that the coaching hire is going to be huge.
20:07
I think that Jimbo Fisher, uh, did a really good job of collecting talent at Texas A&M, and, you know, no one ever doubted his recruiting. But I think he left a lot to be desired as a game day coach.
20:18
I don't think we're gonna see that at all with Mike Elko. I think Elko proved that he could win with anyone at Duke.
20:22
Uh, he's already churned out, you know, elite defenses at Texas A&M before when he was the defensive coordinator. Uh, but I think that this team is gonna be really good on both sides of the ball.
20:31
I think that the offense with Connor Wegman, uh, is going to be, you know, much better than people expect, especially with Colin Klein, the Kansas State offensive coordinator coming in.
20:39
That was a team that was really clever in the way it got people open, and also really good in the red zone and on third down.
20:45
So I think that if that offense is a little better than people think it's going to be, I think Texas A&M's gonna be good right away, especially with them playing a lot of their toughest games at home, starting with that one against Notre Dame.
20:55
If they win that game, I don't really see any possibility that they go under nine. Your favorite Power Five conference play is?
21:03
Ooh, I think that my favorite win total of the whole season, honestly, is Virginia Tech to go over eight and a half.
21:10
I, I just think that that team has a really favorable schedule, much like, you know, A&M before, where I, I mentioned before.
21:15
It's a, it's a team that plays most of its toughest ACC games at home, but they also happen to be returning, like, all of their production from last year. You know, 10 starters back on the defensive side of the ball.
21:25
11 players with starting experience back on the offensive side of the ball.
21:29
I think they have a sneaky Heisman Trophy contender in Kyron Jones, a quarterback, a guy that is just an electric dual-threat quarterback that maybe needs to improve a little bit as a downfield passer, but really accurate, you know, short to intermediate portion of the fields.
21:42
Uh, probably the best runner in the ACC. Uh, I just think that that team is, is, is loaded with experience and loaded with, with talent.
21:49
I think they also did a really good job on the transfer portal on the defensive side of the ball. So I think they're being slept on a little bit in the conversation at the top of the ACC.
21:57
It's a team that I think, you know, might be worth a sprinkle at 10 to one as well. All right, 30 seconds on this. I know you went deep dive on the Heisman, but give us one play that you like above all.
22:07
Uh, you know, I... The more I've talked about it on these shows, I think the more I think that Miller Moss is still a good play to win the Heisman.
22:13
I just think that, you know, being the quarterback of a Lincoln Riley offense is huge. Uh, we've seen him light it up for them before. He had a huge, huge bowl game for them last year.
22:21
He spent two years in the system, so I think there's a lot of comfortability there, and I think that the defense, bringing in Dent and Wynn's gonna be a lot better, giving them the chance to win nine, 10 games.
22:30
And if the numbers are big, there's a chance he wins it. Miller Moss, 40 to one to win the Heisman. Uh, Zach goes even deeper than that in the Heisman in the College Football Betting Guide. Thank you, Zach.
22:40
Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen @BettingOnX. Matt Buchalter from +EV Analytics, all his alternate NFL season win totals next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
By the way, we were talking, of course, with, uh, Zach Cohen earlier, who was so integral to writing the College Football Betting Guide. $175 early bird price.
23:03
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23:13
Uh, Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for Kelly Bidlin. This has become an annual tradition on the show.
23:17
Whenever Bet Bash is happening, uh, folks are, uh, super, super kind to come drifting over to the show, and this specifically has become an annual tradition.
23:27
Matt Buchalter from +EV Analytics on Twitter joins us from Canada. Morning. How you doing, man? Great. This is... H- How often does a, a guy from Canada who does math get to be on TV live?
23:40
This is, this is a highlight of the year for me. Thanks for having me back. As you point out, 'cause we're on Game Plus up there. We are. And, and you're in from Toronto? I am, yes. Yes. So hi, everyone back home.
23:49
There it is. Matt, um, let me just ask you this, first of all. You're here for Bet Bash. Bet Bash so far for you, fantastic? As always, like Bet Bash is, is one of my favorite weeks of the year.
24:00
It, it's sort of 50% professional conference, 50% fantasy camp. Yes.
24:05
You, you, you see all kinds of people from absolute legends to just people who are getting started, and people come up to me and say, "Hey, I read your tweets, I read your articles. I love your stuff."
24:14
There's nowhere else in the universe that I get approached- [laughs]... you know, out of nowhere by people, "Oh, hey, hey." Like, it's, it's, for, for a couple days a year, it, it's cool to, to have that.
24:24
Well, I appreciate that you, that you love doing this as well. So now refresh folks' memory because, um, I think this is the third year we've done this. Two years ago I wanna say you had a fantastic record.
24:34
Did we do well on these last year too? We were close to breakeven. It wasn't great. Okay. I don't remember the exact number. But the year before was big.
24:40
Year before we did well, so I'm gonna try, try and, uh, bounce back this year. So explain to folks what your approach is to betting alternate season win totals. Yeah, so a couple things going on.
24:50
Um, I mean, the easiest one is if you look at since 2015 up to last year, season win totals are 52.7% to the under. There's a little bit of a bias. People like to bet overs. Books know that.
25:00
So really what that means is if you're betting a team's season win total under, you're basically betting vi- vig free. You're still tying your money up for, whatever, six months, but you're not paying any vig.
25:10
If you're betting overs, you're paying double vig- Double vig... and you're tying your money up for six months. Yeah. So generally like to, to favor unders all else equal.
25:18
Um, another thing that has tended to be, uh, predictive is if you have either a new head coach and a returning offensive coordinator or a new offensive coordinator and a returning head coach, those are 27 overs and 52 unders over, uh, since 2015.
25:36
So if you look at who's in, in that situation this year, I believe, if my research is correct, and, uh, thank you to my German friend Suma for helping me out with, uh- [laughs]...
25:45
with the research on this one, but I've got the Bears, the Bengals, the Raiders, the Eagles, and the Bucs who are in that particular situation this year. Uh, repeat the situation again for those who missed it.
25:56
So new head coach, returning OC, or vice versa, new OC, returning head coach. Okay, so an incongruence of that. Yes. So one, one is new, one is returning.
26:06
Yeah, so you, you, the, the idea is there, there's a bit of a feeling out period, and, you know, the two have to learn to, to work together in, in the system.
26:14
Um, so that tends to be a, a pretty strong under look, or has been over the last, uh, last few years. Okay.
26:20
Uh, another one, uh, second-year quarterbacks are, uh, 19 to the over, 15 to the under, which isn't that much of a difference, but if you compare to the overall, which is, which is skewed to the under, you know, there's a, there's a little bit of signal there.
26:33
So you look at second-year quarterbacks this year, you've got the Texans obviously. C.J.
26:37
Stroud, bit of a weird one because I think the idea with this is you get a lot of rookie quarterbacks who are underwhelming in their, in their first year.
26:44
Um, people sort of give up on them, and they come back in year two and they, uh, they surprise you. Not the case with C.J.
26:50
He's actually getting MVP buzz, so, uh, you know, he's not coming out of nowhere and surprising anyone. So not quite sure what to make of the Texans this year with respect to that second-year quarterback angle.
27:02
Uh, you've also got the Panthers with, uh, Mr. Young. You got the Colts, Anthony Richardson, and you've got Will Levis on the Titans, who are, uh, I believe, the exhaustive list of your second year- [laughs]...
27:12
starting quarterbacks- Yeah... um, this year.
27:15
So if you're looking for an overplay, uh, you know, despite the fact that you're on the wrong side of the, of the bias here, those are the teams and quarterbacks that I would tend to look to. Okay, that's interesting.
27:27
So all of that led to some bets in both situations that we, that you just discussed. Let, let's start with the one that you did last right there, right? Let's just start with the, the Texans and C.J. Stroud.
27:37
That led you to a bet here? Yeah, so, so I've, uh, I'm actually on the Texans to have the most wins in the NFL this year. Uh, and that's plus 2100, so, you know, it's, uh, it's a bit of a long shot, 21-1.
27:51
Um, but I think there is definitely, I mean, y- he's got MVP potential. Yeah. Now the question is how much from, from his good first year, you know, how, how many steps up will he take from that?
28:04
And of course you never know, but there is potential.
28:06
Like, if he comes out and he's, if he wins the MVP, you know, there's a good chance that the Texans could, could win 13, 14 games and, you know, li- live at 21 to one. At 21 to one, worth a flyer.
28:17
You also did a most losses. Yeah, most losses. Apologies to my friends locally here in Vegas. Yes. But I think the, the, the Raiders, uh, at, at 18 to one I think- [laughs]...
28:26
is worth, worth a look for, uh, for, for most losses this year. I think they're, they're, um, you know, and they're in one of those, uh, new head coach, uh, returning OC spots. Yeah.
28:35
And I think, you know, if, if things go wrong, they could go very wrong, uh, over here in the desert. Returning head coach, new OC. Luke Getsy, I believe, is the, is the, uh, new OC there. I'll take your word for it.
28:45
Um, and so okay, that, this gets into our, the, the whole coach, coordinator thing.
28:50
So okay, that led to, the, all of that, that first part, led you to four alternate season win totals plays, which again, we love to bet into this market.
29:01
Um, the notion that the alternate season win totals are priced properly, probably a fallacy. Uh, and based on the way that you've done them, you came up with four. I've got four. All right. You ready for them?
29:11
Yes, please. So my, my, my top pick is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers alt under at six and a half wins. Um, I got it at plus 250. I think it's moved since then, maybe plus 230 or so. Uh, I still like it at that price.
29:26
I'm gonna, I'm gonna really put myself out there and say I make it plus 141. Oh, wow. Uh, so I mean, don't take my word for it.
29:33
I'm, I, nobody's ever 100% right on these things, but, uh, despite some movement, I think there's still a little bit of meat left on that bone. Um, Eagles alt under nine and a half wins.
29:44
Uh, I got it at plus 215 a couple days ago. Not sure what it is now. Uh, Raiders again, under five and a half alt wins, uh, at, at plus 225. [laughs] Killing the Raiders. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I, I love Vegas.
29:59
It's my favorite place in the world. No, no, uh, no personal offense needed to my friends here in Vegas. Um, and then if you're gonna play one over, I do like the Carolina Panthers- Wow...
30:11
alt over at six and a half wins at plus 180. I think Bryce Young, I mean, it's, it's, I've heard some, some not so favorable buzz.
30:18
One of the Bet Bash panels, excellent panel, uh, one of the Pro Football Focus guys on, uh, on NFL, uh, Preview, he was not high on Mr. Young, and I have- No... no reason to disagree. Yeah.
30:29
But the potential, you know, anybody could surprise in these second-year quarterbacks. Um, you know, we know what we know, but I think the, the range of uncertainty's a bit wider on all these second-year quarterbacks.
30:40
So on the off chance that he comes out and surprises everyone, he's sort of the opposite of C.J.
30:44
Stroud, where expectations are quite low- Um, and I'm, I'm cool if the low expectations are priced into the market, and I can sort of take some of that upside on, okay, if he's a little bit better, if he's, if he's mediocre instead of bad, that might be good enough to get them over that over, uh, six and a half wins.
31:00
Here, here's what FTN, I know you were talking about Pro Football Focus. Here's what FTN said about Bryce Young.
31:05
Uh, their proprietary stat DYAR, third worst ever recorded, just beaten out by the rookie years of Josh Rosen and David Carr. Uh, sixth all-time, 62 sacks, third all-time, 477 yards lost.
31:19
Uh, when he was actually able to get the ball off, 9.1 yards per completion, ninth lowest ever. Take the sack yards away from his completion, and he netted just 4.1 yards per drop back.
31:31
Adjusted for era, 10th worst season [laughs] ever. It keeps going. Uh, 5.5 yards, uh, per attempt without sacks was a little better, but all put together, one of the 20 worst seasons of all time.
31:42
These guys know way more about this stuff than I do. Yeah. So I have absolutely no reason to disagree with that. But surprisingly, I actually don't mind that, because those- No...
31:49
are the kind of things that would, you would think already be priced into their- Yes... standard, I guess their, their, their standard win total is five and a half.
31:57
It's five and a half for a reason, and you just gave a whole bunch of good ones.
32:00
Um, really what I am taking a bit of a flyer on i- is, okay, well, what if, what if he had a, some, some really good work in the off-season? You know, what if he- Absolutely...
32:09
what if he went on a ayahuasca retreat and- [laughs]... you know, found himself? Wow.
32:14
You know, what if, uh- [laughs] Well, well, you know, there, there, there are things that, that, that can happen between year one and year two, and there are enough examples over the last, you know, decade or so.
32:23
Not saying Bryce Young is going to make that leap, but I'm saying he could. Yep. And I think the fact that he could, um, is enough to, to, to put a little sprinkle out there at plus 180.
32:32
All right, so Bucs alt win total under six and a half wins plus 250. Eagles alt win total under nine and a half wins plus 215.
32:39
Raiders alt win total under five and a half wins plus 225, and the Panthers alt win total over six and a half at plus 180. And then the Raiders most losses 18 to 1, and the Texans most wins at 21 to 1.
32:51
We only have 30 seconds. Can we make the point about Robert Saleh? 'Cause I think it's a key one. Robert Saleh of the Jets, and I saw this on Twitter, he is favored to be both first coach fired and coach of the year.
33:01
Just an example of the, some of these teams have a much, much wider range of outcomes than others, and the, the Jets, uh, you know, between him and Aaron Rodgers would be at the top of the list.
33:11
So I didn't, I didn't have any Jets bets I like specifically, but if you're betting alts- That's the point... look, look at the mean green. Yes, that's the point.
33:19
That's why you should be betting alts, because of stuff like that right there. The variance might be wider than we probably think at this point for many of these teams.
33:29
Matt Buchalter plus EV Analytics, great seeing you, man. Appreciate it. Catch you in January. We'll see how we do. Game Plus, some Buchalter for you. Appreciate you, man.
33:38
Coming back with Joe Fortenbaugh from Daily Wager at ESPN next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:53
Back on A Numbers Game live from Bar Canada here at the D in downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomchek in for Kelly Bidlin. Uh, always a pleasure to have this gentleman on with us.
34:06
He, uh, I, I keep misspeaking, by the way. Wyatt, you're right. I was saying, I was calling it Daily Wager, but it was Daily Wager when it was here in Las Vegas.
34:12
Uh, now that they're back at the mothership, uh, they went to ESPN Bet Live to match the sportsbook ESPN Bet. Uh, he's our old buddy.
34:20
Not only does he, does he work on ESPN Bet Live, you can see him on SportsCenter all the time. He's always joking with the anchors.
34:26
Some of them, you know, some of them probably like him better than others when they do that, I'll be honest with you. We'll get his reaction to that in a moment, maybe.
34:31
But he's also part of the Carlin versus Joe show on ESPN Radio. That's Carlin versus Joe. It's very antagonistic. It's our buddy Joe Fortenbaugh, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. What's happening, Joe?
34:43
Great intro, great welcome. That's exactly how you do it. You lay out all the great stuff.
34:48
You make the guest sound really big so that inevitably when I flop during this segment, they'll still have a positive memory- [laughs]... of a great introduction. Well- Great to be with you guys. How the hell are ya?
34:57
Uh, we're great, man, but what I left out is, what's the deal with the mustache, man? What do you do, what are you doing with that? Okay, so it doesn't look good. I'm gonna be clear about that, and I know that.
35:07
And for some reason, despite the fact that I do this every year, uh, people just feel the need to tell me how bad it looks. Yeah, I get it. Mustaches don't look good.
35:17
I grow it when I'm on vacation, because it would be very weird to grow out a mustache while you're appearing on TV every day. It would just look lazy and sloppy, and then all of a sudden one day it's like, "Oh.
35:28
Oh, that's what you were doing. Oh, okay." Um, I tie it to my Survivor pick. So I go on vacation in the summer. I don't shave at all. One year a few years ago, I looked at myself in the mirror.
35:38
I go, "This could be funny. My kids have never seen me with a mustache." So I just kinda left it. And everyone laughed, and I figured, all right, let's ride this out a little bit.
35:45
And then I just kinda turned it into a bit. So the mustache stays as long as my Survivor pick lasts. Wow. Good news for people who hate the mustache. Okay.
35:54
I tend to get my butt kicked out of those contests relatively quick. Two years ago I got eliminated [laughs] week one with the Niners against the Bears. Last year I was out in, like, week four.
36:03
So i- if you don't like it, don't worry, it won't be around very long. No, I like that. So Fortenbaugh in on the joke, and then without even having to say anything, we will know if he's still alive in Survivor or not.
36:12
I like that. It's a good strategy. There you go. Okay. Exactly. All right. Let's get to, uh, your favorite pre-season, your favorite pre-flop NFL play that you have made, sir. What do you like? I've got a few.
36:25
Um, I'm with the public on the Bears over the eight and a half with the win total, and, and I don't care. I know a lot of, "Oh, the public bets. The public, it is big trouble." I, I could not care less.
36:34
I love everything about this team this year. And it's not that I'm drooling over Caleb Williams. I'm really not.
36:39
I think the handicap gets them to nine wins, um, with Williams being an average to above average quarterback. I don't think this team is going to need a 5,000-yard passer to have nine wins of success this year.
36:50
They won seven last year closing strong, five and three over their last eight. Schedule this year is a lot easier. It's like top four in terms of ease.
36:59
So you should be able to navigate that and find some favorable spots on that schedule, right? Your defense is gonna be a top five unit in my opinion.
37:06
I don't think a lot of people realize how loaded they are, especially after they brought Montez Sweat over last year. And then if you're a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, you're stepping into a great situation.
37:16
I mean, how many rookie quarterbacks come out and their wide receiving unit is D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze with DeAndre Swift added in the backfield? Now, there are problems.
37:25
Number one, is Matt Eberflus a great head coach? We don't know. We do know there's a rookie quarterback, obviously, and that offensive line still has some question marks. But in terms of getting to eight wins, I'm there.
37:36
Denver to be the worst team in the NFL, six to one, I played that. I'd also go under the five and a half wins. Uh, getting rid of Russell Wilson was like the big win for them. Congratulations.
37:46
But because you have such a big dead cap charge, you weren't able to bring anyone in to help you out. You lost Lloyd Cushenberry on the, uh, offensive line. You lost Simmons at safety, Jerry Jeudy at wide receiver.
37:57
You didn't really add anyone. The schedule's not easy.
38:00
Uh, Bo Nix at quarterback, that could work out at some point, but he doesn't have a lot of weapons, and I don't know if he's that great to begin with from a pro prospect perspective.
38:09
So I think Denver's in a world of trouble. So those are two off the top that I could throw at you, but I mean, obviously, we could talk all day long about this. Well, no, I w- I wanna react to both of those.
38:17
One, I'm with you on the whole Denver Broncos thing, and if those who listen to this show know that I find Sean Payton to be a reprehensible human being. Um, before that- [laughs]...
38:26
about the Bears, you know, you, you asked rhetorically, and I'm sure it was rhetorical, about, you know, what quarterback comes into as great of a situation as, as this, uh, in terms of Caleb Williams coming into the Bears, you know, which is a stacked offense, uh, D.J.
38:40
Moore, Keenan Allen, plus Rome Odunze, you know, at, at all. Um, the answer, I think there is actually an answer. Someone was talking about this and it, it was, uh, I wanna give Aaron Schatz credit for this, uh, at FTN.
38:51
Dante Culpepper with Randy Moss and Cris Carter is the only answer anybody could come up with. Oh, hell yeah. That's the only one though. Hell yeah. That's a great one too. Yeah.
39:01
So- That's a- and that goes back, like, 20 years, but that's fantastic. Yeah, so, and, and by the way, I don't think Culpepper started immediately either. I think it took a while for him to get in.
39:10
So this really in terms of, like, right off the bat is probably unique in that respect. Um- Yeah...
39:17
I know we never ask this question because we're too cool sc- too cool for school when we're doing betting content to ask this, but, like, ultimately, I think the most interesting thing about coming into the season is as much analysis as any of us can do, and last year, Lord knows, like, I mean, some of the analytics sites, the, the, the Ravens and the Niners were historically epic.
39:36
Like, ranked as one of, as two of the great teams of all time, and yet Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid still exist.
39:43
So when I ask you, um, when you do all this analysis and if I ask you, "Okay, well, who do you think probably rises to the top when all is said and done?"
39:50
Does that linger in the back of your mind like, "God, I, I'm gonna say teams, but then I know that the looming specter of Mahomes is always there, so why would I say anybody else?" You know what?
40:01
To be honest, it's one of the reasons why I don't make a lot of, um, like, to win bets, future bets on the AFC or the Super Bowl. Like, I d- I like season win totals. I like yes/no playoffs.
40:14
I'll, I'll be in on a lot of player props.
40:16
But with the Chiefs looming there, like, I've tried to get cute in the past where it's like, "Well, they're coming off the Super Bowl, you know, they're a little overvalued," and I'll go deep into the numbers and try to give some great arguments, and then they'll just go win the whole thing, and you sit there and you're like, "Yeah, that was pretty obvious."
40:32
But then you get it in your head where it's like if you pick 'em- Right... well, you're picking the favorite. How often does that work out?
40:37
So you do these mental gymnastics, and I just got to the point where I was like, "You know what? I got plenty to gamble on here. I don't know if I necessarily even need to involve this."
40:45
So if I might find an AFC shot that, that, and I haven't found it this year, but that offers, like, a really good price that I could see making some noise and gives me a good hedge out opportunity, sure. But no.
40:58
And I can tell you, like, I'm not gonna play a team like the Ravens, that, that, they, they, they, they've made it clear who they are.
41:04
There are certain teams I'm not getting on, and then with the Chiefs, I'm not going against them. So you're basically left with your hands in the air, and it's like, "You know what? I'll just play something else," right?
41:12
I'm not gonna force it. You're right. It is in my head. Yeah. I mean, and how could it not be for all of us, right? So it's this, it's this sort of, you know, a joker in a game of war.
41:21
The, the it's out there, and it trumps all. Uh, did you, did you have any opinions on any awards markets, Joe, or do you w- usually wait to play any of those?
41:30
The, um, a- a- MVP award market, I've got a play on Matthew Stafford at 30 to 1. Wow. Um, I, I, I'm, I'm not as high on it as I was.
41:39
I still like the bet, but the thing is, it goes hand-in-hand with how I feel about the Niners. I played the Niners under 11 and a half wins. I have a small position on the Niners to make the playoffs.
41:48
I think there's a big regression coming for San Francisco. Now, it's, it, it has nothing to do with Aiyuk. A lot of people will, will, will conflate those two. "Oh, so if they lose Aiyuk, you don't like them."
41:57
No, no, no, no, no. It's not that. I mean, that hurts obviously, and it, and it's mostly based on this. Couple of key factors. Number one, they were a really healthy team last year, all right?
42:07
Like, they went to the Super Bowl, and a lot of times the team loses the Super Bowl, and there's this narrative about, "Oh, that team is cursed. The Super Bowl loser, they do so poorly the next year."
42:16
It's not like it's a curse. There's pretty good reasoning as to why it happens, and one of them's health.
42:21
If you're gonna make a deep run in the playoffs and you're gonna make the Super Bowl, chances are you were a healthy team. If you're healthy in the NFL, chances are next year that's gonna regress a little bit.
42:29
Just like if you're the Ravens two years ago, where you're rattled by injuries, the following year you're probably gonna be a healthier team. It's just regression to the mean. The Niners were really healthy last year.
42:38
McCaffrey's been healthy each of the last two seasons. The two years before that, he was very injury-plagued, right? Deebo tends to get dinged up. Trent Williams is 36 at left tackle. George Kittle's missed time before.
42:49
Dre Greenlaw is not playing linebacker this year, at least not early in the season 'cause of the injury in the Super Bowl, right? Nick Bosa's gotten dinged up.
42:56
You look at them, uh, if you trade Aiyuk, and then you have an injury here and an injury there, suddenly things can get away from you.
43:02
Scheduling-wise, they're gonna play eight opponents that have a rest advantage against them. So I'm down on the Niners this year, which in turn has me high on the Rams.
43:10
Now, they've, they're going through a lot of injuries on their own on the offensive line right now, so there's a little bit of pause, but I played the Rams to win the division.
43:17
I like the Rams to make a little bit of a run.
43:19
They addressed some of their concerns in the off-season, and I, I, I can't help but think that if somehow this is Matthew Stafford's last year in the NFL, he's one of those all-time good guys. People like the story.
43:31
People like the family. You know, the wife battling back from cancer, all that stuff.
43:35
I'm not trying to bring that into the handicap, but if they find out he's gonna retire after the year, there's the good guy narrative around that if he's able to win enough games and put up some numbers.
43:44
So Stafford right there is one of the plays I'm making in terms of the MVP market. Joe, 20 seconds. SportsCenter anchor that loves when you go off-script and joke with them the most, and the one that wants to kill you.
43:55
Who are they? Uh, Randy and Gary without question love it when you go off-script. Al Duncan as well. In terms of the ones that wanna kill you, I, I, that's one I'd have to think about because- [laughs]...
44:05
most of them are very, very fluid, and they like that. They encourage it, so. Plus, I'm not dumb enough to give you a name and burn myself. Damn it. I thought I had him. Uh, Joe, Joe Fortenbaugh- Yeah...
44:16
from ESPN's Bet Live, and Carlin versus Joe on ESPN Radio. Joe, more energy next time, okay? I'll try my best, Gil. Thank you so much for having me. Joe Fortenbaugh, @joefortenbaugh. Very subdued, very subdued.
44:29
Crack is next unscripted on the Numbers Game at Vs, the sports betting network.
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