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Aug 8, 2025
A Numbers Game | August 8, 2025 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 8, 2025 | Hour 1
00:00
44:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM Channel 158. You know the drill. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bilat, everybody. Heyo.
0:23
What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? Ah, steam shmeam, as my mom used to say. Oh man, I got my face kicked in on multiple fronts yesterday. Pre-sea- preseason's one thing, then the, uh- All that talk.
0:37
Oh yeah, all that talk. All that talk. And by the way, raising our hands, right? Guilty as charged. Oh, yeah, oh, 0 for 2 over here. 0 for 2 over here.
0:44
I don't, I don't know if you had the guys in the back have the Scottie Scheffler, uh, scorecard from yesterday, but how about, uh, how about me betting a Scottie Scheffler to finish top 10 in the first round?
0:55
Gil, he goes, like, two under through, like, three holes. I'm like, "This is easy." I'm at the gym working out, bare- barely paying attention. Of course bogies, uh, the final hole to knock him out of the top 10.
1:06
I'm like, Scottie Schef- Scottie Scheffler just, I don't know how many times a year. What would you say? Three, four times a year just cau- causes me absolute, absolute heartache and torment. Yeah.
1:15
Even when you bet on the guy. Yesterday, just one of them days. One of them days, man. One of them days. Tim Lawson will join us on the show today. By the way, usually it's a Felika and Fezzik Friday.
1:24
Fezzik was with us yesterday. He couldn't be on today. Yep. And, uh, Felika, I don't know what his excuse is, but he's not on. On his way to a wedding, Gil. Oh, that's okay. Yeah.
1:30
That's a good, that's a good enough excuse. Uh, Tim Lawson will join us to talk, uh, MLS soccer. You want some soccer action for you action junkies out there, he's got some soccer plays in MLS.
1:40
Tim Murray on college football. Pete Futack on college football. How about that? Mm-hmm. Couple college football segues today on the show.
1:48
Uh, and then the National Football League, surprise teams to make and miss the playoffs. We will talk about Cleve's, uh, parameters, Cleve T.A.'s, right? What are you smiling about? No, it's, it's, it's awesome. Yeah.
1:58
It's an awesome e- exercise. So it's, it's, I'll do it off the top of my head. It's, it's, uh, teams that are minus 190 or better or l- or shorter to make the playoffs. Which of those do you think will miss?
2:11
And then teams with a season win total of eight and a half or less, which of those do you think will make the playoffs? Win total of eight, actually. Oh, I thought eight and a half. Yeah. Okay, eight or greater.
2:22
Uh, w- which, who will make the playoffs? So surprise teams there. We'll do are we sure, estamos seguros? We will do that later on, including, uh, something I was pondering the other day, which is a little off topic.
2:32
And by the way, can I do a, can I do a, I know we never do this, random, since we're doing a random are we sure. Can we do a trivia question at some point on this show today? Sure.
2:41
Courtesy of our friend Will Hill, VSiN host Will Hill, VSiN podcast host Will Hill, uh, Should've Bet More podcast. A, a trivia question that I was completely not only flummoxed by, but flabbergasted by the answer.
2:55
Is this a sports trivia question? Yeah, yeah, it's a sports trivia. Okay. It's a NFL trivia question. I didn't know if you were about to give me, like, a Fezzik, like, you know- It's, it's such a-...
3:01
what if someone's going across the bridge with a lantern and then they got a red truck. [laughs] Oh, no, no, no, no, we're not doing that. No, no thought exercises. We're not doing that.
3:09
Um, real quick, so I, I wanna get to my tennis plays. I wanna get to my NFL preseason plays, which I did. Brain dead NFL preseason plays. You like that tease? Coming up here momentarily.
3:18
Yesterday in tennis, not good, one in three. Your boy Zizou got home. Zizou. Uh, but the day sort of hinged on the final in Montreal between Naomi Osaka and Victoria Mboko, and Victoria Mboko wins it in three.
3:33
Naomi Osaka was minus 158. At, at some point yesterday I looked at, it was minus 190. I don't know where it closed. Could've come back for all I know.
3:40
But, uh, again, it was another 30 cents of CLV kind of thing at one point. Um, I don't usually play big, uh, minus 158 is about as big a favorite I think. I looked at my spreadsheet.
3:50
I haven't seen a, me play that big of a favorite in a l- like years. Mm. Um, and despite the CLV, I, the reason I bring it up is because first of all, congratulations to anybody who had Mboko in this.
4:00
But Osaka, this was more revealing about Osaka than anything. And, and again, I usually preface these things by saying I don't wanna take any away [laughs] anything away from Mboko, and then comma- Right, right...
4:10
I take away this from Mboko. We all do, yeah. But I don't mean to do this, I really don't. It, it was more revealing about Osaka than anything.
4:16
Mboko, Mboko's gonna be a great player, but Osaka was up a set, and then she was down a break, and then down a second break. And then Mboko was trying to let her back in the match. She was double faulting.
4:27
She got one break back. It went from 5-2 to 5-4, and Osaka was just moping.
4:33
Moping, you know, like a, a to- a toddler or a t- you know, like a child who, like, they move their shoulders back and forth when they're walking. Like, "I don't wanna be here," right? That was Osaka.
4:43
She couldn't get out of her own ha- own head. Why? Because the crowd was rooting, the Canadian crowd was rooting for the Canadian player, and she just couldn't handle this.
4:53
And then, you know, she, she was down a break in the third. She got back the break. She was just, it was the, the body language was awful, and she did one thing that I do on a tennis court, which is you're just lazy.
5:01
Yeah. A g- a ball's coming at you and you're like, "Oh, I think this is probably gonna be out. I'm not gonna move for it." [laughs] And, like, she would just, like, stand on the baseline. She'd be like, "Oh, in.
5:09
What do you know?" So anyway, it was just, it was such a window into her moving forward in terms of, uh, in terms of whether you wanna bet her in matches or not. Just gives you pause.
5:19
And l- and in the post-game, you know, this is the thing about tennis, you have to speak afterwards- Sure, yeah... in the final. No other sport does it where you win or lose.
5:27
And, uh, she got up there, and first thing Naomi goes, [laughs] she goes, "Thank you, I guess." [laughs] And it's 30 seconds later. It reminded me of what Serena did to her when she won her first Slam or US Open.
5:38
Hurt people hurt people. Anyway. I, n- this is, I mean, this is a bit of an Osaka thing fr- from before- It is... though, right? Okay. It is. Uh, but this was just horrifying.
5:45
I mean, not, not that I'm saying you should've seen it coming. No. But, like, it- It is... like you're saying, maybe red flag though of- Yeah... are we getting back to our old ways right now? Well, it's not fun.
5:54
We got four more today. And this is in, in, in a time of year, right, where this is rapid tournament play now- Oh... here over the next couple weeks.
6:01
This is the first time I've ever sort of, like, overlapped on these tournaments. Right. Again, we're at Cincinnati now. This is the prelim to the US Open. Uh, I've got three on the men's side.
6:10
Adam Walton versus Mariano Navone. Adam Walton at minus 122. Had success betting him a couple weeks ago. Really? I was just gonna say, no way you've ever bet that dude before. Yeah. Uh-huh. Okay. All right.
6:21
Alexander Muller, uh, plus 106 versus your boy, Jenson Brooksby. Jenson Brooksby. Damir Dzumhur versus Matteo Bellucci. Matteo Bellucci's number is not good lately.
6:31
Uh, Dzumhur is plus 132, and then on the ladies' side, and this is the first one this morning, Antonia Ruzic, who we had success betting a couple weeks ago, versus Lulu Sun.
6:40
You can get Ruzic at a better number than I got her at. I got her at minus 133. She's lower than that now. So Walton, Muller, and Dzumhur on the men's side, Ruzic on the ladies' side.
6:50
The, the brain dead NFL, back to the NFL. Uh, the, first of all, the steam last night. Let me just, [laughs] let's, let's go back to that for a second.
6:58
Here we are, we're saying, we're like, "Oh, steam, such a big deal in the pre-season. You'll never see this in the NFL," and you won't, in terms of the movement.
7:05
And we talked about post steam is, you know, pre steam is one thing, 65% over like a almost 500 game pre-season span, 450 game pre-season span, to be accurate, 447 I think it was.
7:15
Um, and even post steam, this could work out for you. Well, guess what? Nothing did last night, uh, the first three games of the NFL pre-season beyond the Hall of Fame Game.
7:24
First it was the, uh, the Eagles beating the Bengals 34 to 27. Remember, the Bengals on the move multiple times, including during the show yesterday. They ended up being six, six and a half point favorites.
7:35
Remember, Kelly got the three and a half [laughs] in the first half, which quickly became six in the first half by the end of show yesterday. Neither of those hit.
7:43
So, so, so Gil, there's, I, I had two side bets yesterday, right? One of these I don't regret, one of, one of them, one of them I do. This one I don't. Bengals were exactly what, great offense, terrible defense. Right.
7:54
They- Yeah. Did Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase show up? It was great. Wow, they looked fantastic. They were great. But, uh, Tanner McKee was unstoppable on the other side. [laughs] The great Tanner McKee.
8:03
The great Tanner McKee. Uh, then Ravens and Colts. Ravens won that 24 to 16, after the Colts were a six point favorite in that. Real, real, real quick, just to follow up.
8:11
The Eagles finished with 427 yards of offense in that game. Only two starters played at all. If you're the, if you're an Eagles fan, you're like, "Yep." Yep. [laughs] We're looking pretty good. We're ready.
8:24
Uh, the Ravens game, Rav- so the Ravens, uh, beat the Colts, who had a six point favorites. The, there's a couple injuries in that game, right? Anthony Richardson dislocated his pinky. Bro.
8:32
And if you thought that was gruesome, good God, this poor, uh, sixth round quarterback for the Ravens, Bilal Coney. Yeah, that was still pass interference, though. Oh. [laughs] Kelly, Billy- I'm sorry, Judge, it's, what?
8:44
That was such a- It's an injury. It was terrible. I feel bad. Poor kid's leg was 90 degrees. And then I don't know- He's out for the year... I don't know about you.
8:49
You know I've got a soft spot for Anthony Richardson, but, like, that is, there's a free rusher coming off the side in your face, man. Like, you gotta see that. And the Raiders-Seahawks was a tie, which is fun.
9:00
A t- a tie. [laughs] Which is NFL pre-season, week one, catch the fever. So here are my brain dead plays, and I mentioned that this is what I do during the pre-season.
9:08
Again, when these are low totals, I have two of these. One is a four team, nine, nine point teaser, Kelly, where I took all the lowest totals for the entire weekend and just teased them down nine, right?
9:19
So these are, in this one, ties just reduce to the next level. Mm. So I don't lose on a tie here. Browns, Panthers reduce to over 23 and a half.
9:29
Lions, Falcons, and Cowboys, Rams over 24, and Titans, Bucs, over 23 and a half. So if either of them two middle ones tie, it just pushes down to a three teamer. So that's at even money.
9:38
And then the other one was a, the old three team, 10 point super teaser, where ties do result, uh, in a loss here, but that's why I made them all half points, right? With the 10 pointers. Yeah.
9:48
Uh, Browns, Panthers over 22 and a half. Titans, Bucs, over 22 and a half. Dolphins, Bears over 22 and a half. I put as much thought into those on a yearly basis, right, annual basis on these, uh, as I do, I don't know,
10:02
driving here every morning, which is to say not at all. [laughs] Not at all. So there you go. Those are the two, those are the two, uh, the football plays. Do you have any- Yeah... any more this week?
10:09
I got, so I got the Giants pending, and I was just gonna bring up, the one I've got my eye on that I might do something teaser with, I, I wanna play that Cardinals side.
10:17
They're like two and a half point dogs at home right now. Like, everybody, eh, that g- that kind of moved a bit, 'cause Mahomes is gonna play, quote, unquote, but, like, okay, how long, right? Eh, yeah.
10:27
So I, I, but I haven't, I haven't found, found a dance partner for him yet. So, um, I might include a total.
10:32
I w- I, I mean, honestly, they're so low, and those, [laughs] we had three games sail over, uh, yesterday, so, uh, who knows how this pre-season's gonna go. Uh, real quick on base- Actually, and totals are being bet up.
10:42
Like, these are going up it looks like for this week. Real quick on baseball, uh, Paul Skeens gave up seven hits yesterday. Did you see this? Yeah. Yeah, this is incredible. [laughs] This is the first time, right?
10:53
This is the first time. First time. First time in 47 Major League games. In the for- it took 47 for him to give up seven hits to an opposing lineup.
11:01
So his record streak of allowing six or fewer hits ended at 46, 7-0 win over the, uh, the Reds.
11:07
Think about that, 'cause when we talk about, like, six or seven hits, usually the recap is, you know, pitcher X scattered- Yeah...
11:15
six or s- like, he only now has gotten, has graduated to a, his worst game is a scattering of hits. Yeah. It sh- and it, and it j- Never been shelled, never had a hard time, never whatever phrase they use.
11:28
So, so- A scattering's the worst for him... allows a record number of hits from him. They win 7-0. Skeens is 7-8 on the season now. Yeah, and his- He struck out eight and lowered his ERA to 1.94.
11:39
[laughs] Lowered his ERA to 1.94, lowest among qualified pitchers. Pretty, pretty good. We'll, uh, update the, uh, the early August wins, and NFL next.
11:51
[upbeat music]Visi Network Want to bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:08
Right now you can check out Matt Humans' fast food rankings, Greg Peterson's MLB best bets, and Beason's college football betting guide, and later today you can check out Britain Hess's UFC picks, Saturday Saratoga horse racing predictions, and Steve Macaden's NASCAR simulation.
12:21
Right now you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the Beason Pro articles. Just head to beason.com/subscribe to sign up today. The last dance for food rank- fast food rankings. Yeah.
12:32
Read- I read through a bunch of that. It was a, it was kind of a, it was kind of a sad article, Gill. It's just the, the... Matt really wrote, he wrote up a bunch of just the- Yeah... it was a final farewell.
12:41
Were you weeping while you were reading? I almost did. Yeah?
12:43
I almost did because, I mean, he, he did a great job of bringing it back to how it started, and just remembering the pandemic days, and oh man, were those some interesting times around, uh, around here at Beason when we had nothing to talk about.
12:56
Beason.com with a very special fast food rankings. You remember that when, when I was- And then I finally got to the rankings, Gill, and, and there were some shocking moves. [laughs] Shocking moves, really?
13:06
Look, I, I, I, I'm, I'm telling you, ones that Humans has had, like, one, two, three for years that plummeted.
13:12
I used to love that with, uh, network promos, a v- on a very special fast food rankings, when, like, the Different Strokes episode where, like, uh, someone tried to sell, uh, Willis drugs at school on a very special Different Strokes.
13:23
There we go. You gotta do that tone. That's what this one is. The serious, the serious quiet tone. This is, uh, this is... We get tweets at Betting the Book. Y'all are the best. Love y'all. Best listeners in the game.
13:32
This is from, uh, from Mike Rouse. "An ANG dress code on Friday. Twinning is winning." Apparently we, oh, we have the same color. Ish. It, well, yeah, same.
13:43
No, no, no, my sh- my button-down shirt and Kelly's schmatte are the same color. Wh- what was that, schmotte? Charcoal. Schmotte. Look it up.
13:50
[laughs] Well, let me give you an example from an old SportsCenter where schmotte was used. Charlie Steiner was watching an Agassi match- I know that one... when, when he wore the bandana on his head. Oh, yeah.
13:59
And he goes, "Agassi with a forehand, Agassi with a backhand, Agassi with a schmotte on his head." [laughs] All right. It's one of the great SportsCenter calls of all time.
14:07
James Saad, "I watched the last three games of the Osaka match, and that was horrible. She checked out. That was not cool." It really was not.
14:13
Del Mind the Gap Radio, "After watching Colts, the Colts last night, they should not be favored in week one. Take the Fins, take the Dolphins plus point and a half.
14:22
Also, question for Kelly, can you name another wide receiver for the Colts besides Pittman?" Oh, sure. You can do that. Uh, uh, Adlai Mitchell. Adonai Achad Mitchell. Yes. That's correct. Thank you.
14:31
Alec Pierce, of course. Is he still there? He's still there, right? He's still there. I think he is. I mean, he better be. He's the only guy who could catch anything last year. Yeah. Downs, right? Downs, yeah.
14:41
They, all these... Uh, b- 'cause we do guessing lines, so we remember all these random names. Yeah, Pierce is still there. Yeah. Uh, this is, uh, Jason H11.
14:47
"Gilly, you should never drive brain dead, so you have uninsured driver insurance. Vegas' best attorney, Al Lasso, reminds you to protect yourself. Paulie swears by him, just saying."
14:55
[laughs] Have you, have you heard the Paulie Al Lasso commercials? Uh, commercials? No, I guess not. I- Or promos? Yeah, I've heard him bring it up on the show multiple times.
15:03
I heard on the promos, he goes, "Al Lasso, he's fantastic. He's our attorney. He's our law... Go, go get him, or go at him." [laughs] Go get him. I was like, "What does Paulie... Paulie has an attorney?
15:11
Why does he need an attorney?" Uh, let's see.
15:14
Mikey P wants to remind us about his tweet yesterday where he said, um, "I have a weird feeling that the Bengals are gonna do to us tonight what they did to everybody in week one of Survivor last year."
15:24
So he reminds us, he goes, "No more betting on the Bengals on any week ones going forward." Yeah, that's a good point. God, th- there was, there was...
15:31
It, that game was hitting that point, too, already, where you're like, after the second touchdown, you're like, "Get him out of the game. Get Burrow and Chase out of the game."
15:39
Even when it was someone like me had money on it, I was like, "What are we doing here? This is only gonna end badly." [laughs] You, you're not gonna be able to sustain this pace throughout the regular season.
15:48
I, I- You are not. No, no. Emotionally. It's just the pre, it's the preseason stuff, man. I know. Like, I understand.
15:54
I understand you've gotten off to slow starts, but if one of those guys goes down, you are going to regret this so much.
16:01
Real quick before we get to the NFL make or miss playoff team that we selected, given, uh, Cleve TA's, uh, parameters, uh, MLB monthly wins, month of August, early going here, our play on the Rangers, meh.
16:13
Uh, three and three, but [clears throat] can I, uh, ask you, can I ask you, uh, what you think their one run record is here early in the month of August? Oh and three.
16:22
[clears throat] Three and three and oh and three in one run games. Now, to be fair, they have won a, uh, extra game, extra inning game or two, or one extra inning game, and they've won some close ones themselves.
16:31
But it is the Brewers, who apparently are never gonna lose a baseball game again. Six and oh with a plus 32 run differential. They are the leader in the clubhouse.
16:40
Red Sox, Mariners, which of course I considered [laughs] and had last month, and the Guardians, go away. All three are five and one. Blue Jays, Phillies, Giants, Padres, all four and two right after them.
16:53
Sha- shout out to Scott who came up to me at the gym two days ago and just had written on his phone, it just said, "Mariners." Just said Mariners. Good for him. So far so good.
17:03
Um, but again, what are they in one run games? Three and oh in one run a game, one run games. Yeah, it helps. That'll do it. That'll do it. Guardians, by the way, four and one in run one, one run games.
17:13
It's very hard to say. Can I get my trivia question before we do make miss? Sure. This is from Will Hill. We don't usually do trivia questions on this show, but I thought this one was fantastic.
17:21
'Cause even when I, when I got the answer, I couldn't get the answer, and then when I got the answer, I was like, "This can't be real life." All right, the year was 2008 in the NFL, 2008 regular season.
17:31
Can I- The MVP ended up being Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts. You remember Peyton Manning, right? Mm-hmm. He was the MVP. Good quarterback. Yep. He was voted number one. He won the AP NFL MVP award.
17:42
Can you name the two players with... And don't look and, and then, you know, think you're... Uh, uh, obviously don't look. Can you name the two players that- Probably not... tied for second in voting? Oh, gosh.
17:55
Can you name the two players for the 2008 season that tied for second in voting behind Peyton Manning, who won the MVP after the 2008 regular season? That is your trivia question for the day. All right. Okay?
18:05
I'll think, I'll, I'll, I'll think about it during the break. Okay. And get back to you. Now, uh, Cleve TA, our buddy, uh, who does his NFL betting guide, he's great with the parameters A team, what is a team?
18:15
We're gonna do a make miss. We're gonna pick one team here for each of these categories. A team, let's, let's start with the, uh, you wanna start with the miss or the make? Let's do the miss. Let's do the miss. Okay.
18:25
So a team with a, with a, uh, miss the play, or, or should, I should say a make the playoffs of minus 190 or shorter. Minus 190 or shorter, or minus 190 and longer? Shorter.
18:39
Minus 190 and shorter has missed the playoffs, what is it? How many years in a row now is this? Let me, uh, this is where I get another screen here. Let me, uh, I'll read it here. Each season since 2008.
18:49
Each season since 2008, a team with a make a playoff pre-flop number of minus 190 or shorter has missed. Who, sir, would be your pick in that category to miss the playoffs this year?
19:03
So if you go over to the first part with this, this is obviously gonna change year to year, right?
19:09
But if you go over to DraftKings and look at how many teams are even a minus 190 or more to make the playoffs, that would be the Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs, and 49ers. That's it. That's it, our entire list.
19:22
Um, I went Niners, and it's, it's what happens, right? It's Aiyuk, injury stuff. McCaffrey maybe isn't fully healthy. Kittle will get a little older.
19:32
Maybe Purdy takes a step back, and the schedule just doesn't end up being as easy as we think. Oh, wait a minute. So it says a team with minus 190 or lower odds to make the playoffs has missed in each season since 2008.
19:46
I read minus 190 and low- and lower as minus 190 and, and less, and less likely, not the other way. Minus 190 and lower. Did I misread that, or did you misread that?
20:00
It, it, you, you did, but it's probably just not explained well enough. Okay. Big favorite that misses the playoffs, right? Okay. 'Cause I ended up, I ended up reading it as minus.
20:09
When he said lower, I ended up saying minus... I, I, I picked a minus 140 team. Okay. I read it the other way, and I went with the Chargers. So you're saying it's one of the ones that is higher than that? Correct.
20:22
All right. So we had a, we had a little word problem there. Little word problem. Maybe we should, uh... But I, I hate rehearsal when we don't get this right.
20:28
Um, anyway, I went with the Chargers, so just doing it in my, doing it my way since we botched that. The Chargers for me, again... By the way, did you hear this?
20:35
Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater gonna miss the entire season for the Chargers now. Ruptured patellar tendon, suffered in practice yesterday. Uh, he'll undergo surgery, be placed on injured reserve.
20:46
Uh, they have a harder schedule than last year when they won 11 games, but this is just a numbers game. [laughs] See what I did there?
20:51
This is just a numbers game for the Chargers in a crowded AFC where, take the division winners, right?
20:57
Let's, let's say it's Buffalo, the Houston/Jacksonville winner, or the team that ends up with a better record in the, uh, in the South, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Just go with me, Bengals fans.
21:07
And let's say then the wild cards are the Bengals and two others. I have the Broncos as one of the two others. So then the Chargers are, as a, a numbers game, you're only playing for one spot. Mm-hmm.
21:18
And you're up against the Houston/Jacksonville loser and the Pittsburgh Steelers of the world. I just, I'm not a guy who trusts Justin Herbert. So anyway, my play was the Chargers based on how I read that. All right.
21:30
Let's do the other one. Yours wa- and yours was the Niners if things go wrong. Yes. Okay.
21:35
The other one, which we both got right here, is since 2000, at least one team with a win total of eight or fewer wins has made the playoffs in every season.
21:42
In 21 of the last 25 years, at least two teams have made it, including five teams last year. Washington, Denver, Tampa, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. You came up with? Uh, I listed a few options here,
21:55
but number one would be the Miami Dolphins. Ooh. And this is one that I haven't bet yet, Gil, but I'm going to play some alt/overs on them.
22:04
Um, this is just, there's so, I feel like there is so much injury expectation ba- baked into their numbers that it's just, what if ev- what if everybody stays healthy this year? It's as simple as that.
22:15
What if Tyreek Hill and Tua are friends and everybody stays healthy? This team I think has got a chance. I'm gonna say Atlanta Falcons, win total of...
22:24
I- if you, if you allow me over seven and a half minus 140 as counting in this, right? 'Cause that's what it is at DraftKings.
22:30
Fourth easiest schedule in the National Football League, and would you really be surprised if Tampa wasn't quite as good as last year? And Michael Penix in a, in a, in a perfect world
22:41
where he showed flashes of manifest this year, and Atlanta is the team that wins- Yeah, I like that one... the NFC South. It's a good one. Yeah.
22:46
Nothing, nothing super sexy on those, but I think that's always interesting. What is the team based on those parameters that get there in both directions? Coming back, MLS soccer next with Tim Lawson.
22:56
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Circa Survivor. I'm not gonna give up. Circa Survivor, the quest for $14.2 million.
23:11
10-part documentary series following the drama, strategy, and heartbreak inside the world's largest legal football contest. Episodes air nightly, 9:00 PM Eastern through Saturday on VSiN.
23:20
Then catch the final five episodes, which I have not seen the final five, next week, August 12th through the 16th, also at 9:00 PM Eastern. If you missed an episode, you can watch them at vsin.com/survivor.
23:31
It will definitely get you charged up for this year's Survivor as well. You bought your entries yet? No. Neither have I. No, but, yeah, but this is, uh...
23:40
So I spoke for us the other day when some- We're sitting here lollygagging... someone asked me this question. Mm-hmm. They're like, "You, Gil signed up yet?" And I'm like, "No, not at all."
23:47
I'm like, me and Gil have kind of gotten into the bad routine of we, we, it's right there, so we do it within, like, the last week usually. Yeah. At least that's how it was last year for us. Uh, let's see.
23:56
Uh, this is a, we get tweets that beat me to the book. Kevin Ryan, "Gil, how stupid can I be?"
24:00
He said, "John Harbaugh's preseason career versus the news of Richardson and Jones playing in the first half, and I jump on the Colts and brag about CLV." Kelly was saying the same thing. This guy.
24:09
I, I'm right here with, right there with you, buddy. Right there with you. At what point in that game were you like, "Why did I bet against John Harbaugh?"
24:15
Keaton Mi- Keaton Mitchell's, like, second run, and you're like, "Oh, yeah, this Harbaugh guy, he, he cares about this stuff." Yeah.
24:22
But some of it, like, I, not making excuses, but the, these, like, special teams just completely outplaying the Colts. I mean, they get a touchdown, they get another big return, um, and then they just ran all over them.
24:34
Keith Mitchell just ran all over them. Cleve TH chimed in. He said, "Kelly was correct. It's minus 190 odds or lower, uh, AKA more negative number, has missed the playoffs."
24:44
I said to Cleve, "Maybe we should use longer or shorter next time." This is like, uh, higher or lower seeds in the NCAA tournament. Every year I'm like, "Wait, higher or lower? What are we talking about?"
24:52
You know, that one always messes with you. Yeah. Or the over-under on the draft picks. That's the one I always remember messing with you the most. Cleve said, "My bad."
24:58
[laughs] Uh, Bruce Dobingan, "Watched the quarterback show and saw the precise moment the Bears decided to hire Ben Johnson. It was Lions', uh, it was a stumble bum play against them where Goff pretended to fall down.
25:09
Remember this, Gibbs did fall down, and the offensive line shouted, 'Fumble,' and Laporta was open for a touchdown. Bears started drawing up the contract before they kicked the PAT." Yeah.
25:19
Ben Johnson, who, uh, legend has it, was on a, uh, th- had a meeting with the Washington Commodores and thought it, that their, that their, uh, front office was too basketball-y. Oh, interesting.
25:32
Josh Harris being the Sixers owner. Yeah. Bob Myers, former Golden State Warriors GM- Remember John, he was involved, yeah... being part of that. And of course Magic being a part owner.
25:42
He was like, "Eh, too basketball-y." [laughs] Jayden Daniels too basketball-y for you, buddy? All right, your trivia question's messing with my head. Can I throw out some names to you?
25:50
Okay, so give us a tr- 'Cause I know they're all gonna be wrong anyways. The trivia question. We're gonna- There's a reason why you're asking it. There's no reason why I'm asking it.
25:56
The only reason I'm asking it is because- Well, they're gonna be surprise names... well, it's because I love a trivia question. Tr- it takes a lot to impress me with trivia questions. Eh. Right?
26:05
And so Will had one where not only did I not know the answer, but when I found out the answer, it blew my mind how little I possibly could have remembered one of these people.
26:14
So the trivia question is, Peyton Manning won the MVP in 2008. Who finished in a tie, which two players, who finished in a tie second place in voting? I got five names I wrote down.
26:25
I don't even know if I'm r- I don't even know if I'm right on years of, like, exactly when they were at their prime. Mm-hmm. But I think I am. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees.
26:35
Chris Johnson finished seventh. Adrian Peterson, who probably should've been in co- in com- competition higher up for the MVP, finished fifth. None of the others were in the top eight.
26:45
I thought I was early on Peterson maybe. Okay. Let's see if, uh, oh, by the way, here's a, here's a tweet that leads us- Tim Lawson might know... right into our next guest, by the way. This is from JoeC714.
26:58
He said, "Can you ask Paul," and Paul Carr is not our guest today, 'cause Paul doesn't do the MLS. But he said, "But we'll ask Tim this," Tim Lawson. "Can you ask Tim what he thinks of Son going to LAFC?
27:08
I think one of the biggest signings in MLS history." Mm. I don't even know. Yeah. And we don't even know what we're, what we're talking about here, but Tim Lawson does. He joins us now courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line.
27:17
Not only was he the host of The Better Life podcast, but now he's the host of the Better Life Better Than Ever podcast.
27:23
You can follow him on Twitter @TheBetterLife, and Megapod historian on his reg- on his resume as well. How you doing, Tim? Uh, I'm doing well, Gil. Uh, I have to say the Son Heung-min, um, signing is huge.
27:37
Like, South Korean phenom, you know, former, uh, you know, just came out of Tottenham. It, I mean, he's cl- definitely the biggest signing MLS has had in recent years who's not named Lionel Messi, right? Right.
27:48
I mean, this is, uh, an incredible signing, unlikely to be available for this week's, uh, this week's match. But, um, it, I mean, when someone sent it to me, I thought it was, like, I was like, "This can't be.
27:58
Like, are they messing with me?" Uh, no. Huge signing for MLS, and I think a signal, uh, that MLS is starting to legitimize, uh, in the, in the soccer world's eyes. Legitimize.
28:10
So not just a, uh, repository for aging stars. Yeah. Right. So Thomas Muller just went to Vancouver, right?
28:19
He's got a, you know, he, you know, took, you know, four, uh, you know, suitcases to pack all his, uh, trophies and medals [laughs] that he's gotten over the years.
28:27
Someone signs like that, it's like, okay, little r- you know, uh, this is their golden age, their retirement years. They're gonna come over to MLS and enjoy it.
28:34
Uh, Son coming over is an indication that players in, you know, who are still in good form and in, and a good part of their prime may have interest to come stateside. Interesting. All right.
28:44
And then from a betting perspective, and I think I've brought this up before on the show before, but I just wanna sort of establish your, your sort of perspective on MLS.
28:52
I have heard from some soccer folks who, you know, soccer handicappers, that they like handicapping other leagues, but for whatever reason, MLS they think is the hardest of all to handicap. You don't view it that way.
29:06
I can definitely understand, uh, how, um, it, it's, it, it can be volatile. And because of the salary cap, sometimes, uh, you know, parity comes into play more.
29:16
But I think the, the more talent and the more, um, you know, the more, uh, routine, the more we're understanding the league, the more the league is becoming like other leagues, the more I think it's, it's, uh,
29:29
available to handicapping and l- and get a little more, uh, regular, uh, results as you might see in other leagues. All right.
29:36
Uh, Philadelphia the best team right now in the Eastern Conference, with a slight edge in points over Cincinnati and Nashville, in a pretty bunched up top of the Eastern Conference.
29:46
Then Western Conference bunched up even more with San Diego, Vancouver, and Minnesota. Uh, we're 25 games in. How many more games left in the season, Tim? Uh, oh man, I, I probably, uh, should...
29:59
I mean, it's gotta be, like, they're, we're a little past the hit, halfway mark here. Little past that. So, like, 10, maybe, yeah, d- uh, 10 more I think maybe for, for league play. Okay.
30:07
Uh, you have a trio of Major League Soccer bets. What do you have, sir? Uh, first, uh, Dallas. Uh, Lucho Acosta is on his way out, going to Brazil, but I think they're still in a good spot here to pick up three points.
30:20
Portland had a really great showing in Leagues Cup. Again, I'm, I'm gonna bet that maybe 10 people max in your audience knew that there was a inter-season tournament going on between MLS and Liga, Liga MX.
30:30
But, uh, Portland had a really great showing, but Santo Moreno, uh, Santi Moreno I should say, uh, has created some drama inside the club by packing his bags and threatening to just leave until a transfer is complete, which is weird, 'cause, like, he's expecting it to be complete and also being like, "Hey, I, I'm just gonna leave until it is."
30:45
Uh, I think that this Dallas side is ready to show they can suc- succeed without Acosta, and I think that, uh, with, uh, Moreno possibly not playing, Mora, Acosta, and Antony getting meaningful minutes in, in a recent match where they played down a man, uh, I think Dallas is in a nice spot here to pick up points against this, uh, Portland side that may have a rotation going into the week.
31:04
Also going on, is, is remaining in the state of Texas with Austin on the money line here. Yes. Uh, this is, I think this is the, the largest edge of the weekend in my opinion.
31:13
Uh, many believe that this lackluster offense would struggle after the injury to striker Brandon Vazquez, but I think quite the opposite is happening.
31:20
Owen Wolf and, uh, Murta-Wazini have both stepped up in creating chances, and this entire Austin squad will be rested after not playing in the Leagues Cup.
31:29
Houston, on the other hand, did play all three matches, and, uh, they lost all three matches. They're generally in poor form. They p- had some starters play in their most recent match.
31:37
I think that you're either gonna get, uh, some tired legs for the starters or a rotation of less quality on either side.
31:43
I think, either way I think a sneaky Austin side, uh, can get all three points against an interstate rival here. All right. Now explain this last one to the uninitiated here.
31:53
Yeah, so LAFC, who we just talked about, Sun likely u- uh, um, unavailable to play, but LAFC draw no bet. Uh, all could be list- also be listed as a pick'em. What it means it is if it lands on a draw, it's just a push.
32:06
It's a no bet. If LAFC wins, it's a, it's a cash. If they lose, it's a loss. But it protects you a little bit against a draw in a s- in a situation where you, where you may want to maybe not go all in on a money line.
32:17
Uh, the simple handicap here is, w- even, uh, it's a little counter to my last plays, but Chicago, who didn't play Leagues Cup, LAFC did, but, uh, the star striker in LAFC, Denis Bouanga, did not even suit up for their last match.
32:30
So he's expected to be both available and rested. LAFC, you know, coming off of this recent signing, they're all in, uh, for winning. They're the more talented side.
32:39
And for as good as the Chicago attack is, they're really known for letting quality sides stick around, uh, and that's who LAFC is. Uh, I think that they're going to be able to prevail.
32:48
But I do wanna respect Chicago's extra rest here, so I'm take- I'm going with the draw no bet. All right. Dallas, plus 110. Austin, biggest edge of the weekend, uh, plus 116.
32:57
And then LAFC, uh, draw no bet, so if it's a draw, it is a refund on LAFC at plus 102. Tim, real quick before you go, 30 seconds. Uh, you are the Megapod historian. Yep. That's right.
33:08
Um, Beating the Book podcast, Betting Dork podcast, put them together. How many episodes total have we done? Oh, it was just shy of 1,000. It was, like, 970 I wanna say, 980. It got really close.
33:20
I'd, I'd have to double check. And that was, those were rough numbers. Uh, before, before week one, I will have, uh, uh, an absolute number for you to, to report to your audience. Thank you, Tim.
33:29
About to hit 1,000, Kelly. It sounds like you need to pick it up, yeah. 1,000 episodes of a podcast. You were lucky if I was ear- wearing pants back in the day. [laughs] You gotta hit 1,000, man. Come on. Yeah, man.
33:40
Tim, thank you. Can't get that close. Appreciate you. Great seeing you, Tim. @TheBetterLife is where you can follow Tim for all of his soccer plays. Let's talk some college football.
33:49
Tim Murray, VSiN's own, next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:10
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander. This right here is Kelly Bilat, everybody. What's up?
34:17
We got a, a, can we, can we make a celebratory announcement for one of our coworkers here at VSiN? The great Zack Cohen. Yes.
34:26
Our buddy Zack Cohen, who, uh, comes on this show on Thursdays as part of the Zack and Crack Show.
34:31
But of course, is just instrumental in everything we do at the network, is prominent on the website, on college football, on the NBA, on tennis of course. Um, uh, those are just off the top of the dome. Yeah.
34:45
He does multiple sports. But Zack Cohen, uh, "Apologi- apologies for the late text, but just wanted to let you know that Chase Alexandra Cohen is here, late in the night, August 7th.
34:55
Has a boyish name like her mommy, Logan. Both doing well. Born the night Mboka won Montreal," he wrote. [laughs] Which I, which I said to him, "Well, I hope you remind her of that often."
35:06
Oh, congratulations- So congratulations to Zack-... to the Cohen family... he will make a, uh, fantastic father. He really will. What a blessing. Mazel tov to, uh- Yes... to our own Zack Cohen.
35:15
We get tweets @beatingthebook. Uh, SteveTheProxy, "A little light on guests today.
35:20
Can you please spend 10 minutes discussing when was the last time you ate chicken planks at Long John Silver's or a burger at A&W in Boulder City, and how does it rate versus Carbone?
35:28
The VSiN host food spectrum is wide," he says. Yeah, uh, I'm gonna go Carbone. SeanTownBaller, "Just finished the Billy Joel documentary. You weren't kidding. Perhaps the best documentary I've ever seen." Really?
35:39
'Cause Kelly won't watch it. Is there, is there also a movie simultaneously up, uh, on, on streaming sites about him? I don't, I don't know. Okay. I don't think so. Maybe I'm wrong.
35:49
Thought I s- passed by that the other day. Alan Harris. Alan Harris went and looked at the answer of our trivia question. Again- I did too...
35:57
okay, the trivia question again, without, without revealing it yet, the answer. 2008, Peyton Manning won the MVP. Who were the two players who finished tied for second in voting?
36:06
And Alan Harris, general, big, at Big Cat Sports, he goes, "Just goes to show you," after he, he looked at, at the answer.
36:12
He goes, "Just goes to show you how dumb the MVP/offensive player of the year voting was even then.
36:18
The two guys that finished tied for second in MVP voting got a combined one offensive player of the year vote, and Drew Brees won offensive player of the year without a single MVP vote." Yeah. Yeah, it's silly.
36:28
It's the... I, I think also just, just if you look at the fi- I pulled it up during the break. If you look at the final voting, too- Yeah... just compared to what MVP looks like nowadays to...
36:38
Like, I mean, it was a, it's a plethora of d- of positions that are, uh, uh, that are represented in the voting back then. The thing that is, again, by the way, all credit to Will Hill, who had this trivia question.
36:48
He was the one. I don't even know that I truly remember one of the two players. That's what blew my mind. I'm like, I'm, am I, do I really remember this player, or am I acting like I remember this player? So, so- Yeah...
37:00
th- that was the one. I know exactly who you're talking about. Whether, I'm mad that I didn't have the stones to bring up the other guy's name. [laughs] I just, I, I didn't remember what year. Tim Murray joins us now.
37:09
He is, uh, the host of multiple things at Vsain, including the, uh, Vsain's Weekend Morning Line and of course the Vsain College Football Betting Podcast, not to mention Vsain Primetime as well.
37:17
It's Tim Murray, @1TimMurray. That's the number 1, Tim Murray on Twitter courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. How you doing, Tim? I'm great, Gil. Feeling good.
37:26
Got my, uh, Bethany Beach sweatshirt on just for you and, uh, coming back from a little trip back east, checking out our old roots this past weekend. I did not unfortunately get to talk to Terry, uh, McLaurin- Yeah...
37:38
and convince him to sign. So, uh, that was, uh, on the checklist. Didn't get there. He had one job going back to the DMV, Tim, and that was it. Uh, Bethany, Rehoboth- I did have to go...
37:47
I did, I did have to go see the Nationals get absolutely curb stomped by the Brewers, you know? [laughs] So had to- That's fun... had to check that off the list, yeah. You got that opportunity.
37:55
[laughs] Tim, well, that's our first Bethany/Rehoboth/Ocean City shout-out on the show ever. Yeah. Which I probably went to once in my life, by the way. Once. Really? Uh, yeah. Not, not a, not a- Where?...
38:05
East Coast beach guy. No, not that part. I would go, I would go down to my buddy in Key Biscayne. That's what I would do. Florida. East Coast, too, but, you know, way down there. Excuse me. Yeah.
38:14
[laughs] I mean, you're, you're, you're excused. Kelly, he's not... Hey, look. You are excused. Look, he, he went... Look, we're, we're gonna go, we're inside the beltway here. I didn't go to Landon.
38:23
So, uh, I- Where did you go?... slummed it. Where did you go? Uh, I went to The Heights. Yeah, I think we- Uh, just down the road from Landon. I think we beat you. Another private school. I think we beat you repeatedly.
38:32
Tim, Tim, Tim acting like he w- Probably... like, Tim, Tim's like, "Yeah, I went to another private school." [laughs] I, I, I, I slummed it at another private school. Good job, Tim. Good street cred, buddy.
38:40
[laughs] And, and yeah, Tim, when Gil goes to the beach, it requires a plane, okay? Yes. That's right. Yeah. For God's sakes. All right, college football. Um, given you are a Notre Dame guy, let's start with this. Sure.
38:52
Give me the most outlying Tim Murray, uh, season long play, the one that you feel like you're on an island.
39:00
And then after that or with that, give me the m- sort of anecdotally the play that you're hearing or, or a common sentiment that you've been hearing on a season long play that you just can't get behind. All right.
39:13
So you're talking not about Notre Dame. You're talking about just all across college football? In general, yes. Okay.
39:18
Um, I, I would say, and I've actually seen it a couple times in our, uh, in our guide, so maybe I'm not as outlandish out there.
39:27
Um, but I, I bet Devin Dampier, the New Mexico transfer, to win the Heisman Trophy at 100 to 1 this off-season. Can get, still get it, like, 70-ish to 1 or something like that. Look, it, it's a long shot obviously.
39:39
But I think Utah's gonna win the, the Big 12 this year in, in one of the most wide open, I think the most wide open Power Four conference, maybe the most wide open conference in all of college football this year.
39:50
But I love what Utah did in the transfer portal to go get a Devin Dampier. There's a lot of hype, and maybe this leads into the second answer, about John Mateer going to Oklahoma.
40:00
And I'm excited about what John Mateer could potentially bring to Oklahoma. He goes with his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle. But people are overlooking the fact that Utah brought in
40:10
Charles Beck, uh, uh, Beck, the, uh, the offense coordinator from New Mexico as well. So that was my long shot bet that I kinda put together early on in the off-season as, uh, maybe a little outlandish.
40:22
I don't think Utah to win the Big 12 is outlandish.
40:25
They're in the six to one range, so I think that's, you know, if someone says it's gonna be Arizona State, someone says it's gonna be, you know, Kansas State, uh, certainly it, it's possible TCU, et cetera.
40:35
So I think that is the one, uh, that I may be a little out there on, that Devin Dampier I think is gonna be exceptional. In week one, look at the point spread.
40:43
It's up to six and a half now for Utah on the road at UCLA, one of the bigger movers in week number one. Uh, the one that I, I just can't get behind just yet, um, is, is...
40:56
I don't know if Arch Manning to win the Heisman Trophy is one that everybody is out there betting. Uh, but I just, I gotta see it. And, and, and look, could Arch Manning be the best quarterback in college football?
41:06
Yeah, it's certainly possible, Gil. But the guy has played two games so far, started two games. And we know how good he was expected to be and know how good he probably will be.
41:17
But I'm just, I'm not ready to jump all in on Arch Manning being this elite quarterback. Could he v- could he be? Absolutely.
41:25
But I wanna pump the brakes just a little bit there o- on Arch Manning to win the Heisman Trophy.
41:30
I'll say this, another one that has certainly made the rounds, and it was my actually first bet this off-season, Gil, was Clemson to win the ACC. And boy, they have garnered a lot of love this off-season.
41:42
So you always get a little bit worried.
41:44
I feel like I was early on the Clemson train here this off-season, but they certainly are a team that a lot of people are not only expecting to win the ACC, but maybe to win the national championship.
41:55
You look at their odds this off-season, Gil. They've went from around 20 to 1 down to 10-ish to 1 to win the national championship this year, uh, for the Clemson Tigers. Yeah.
42:04
And I, you know, I was asking the other day about the NFL, which is the NFL team here in this preseason that w- that we've heard the most variant views on.
42:14
And we came up with, I think, the Vikings, the Dolphins, like, teams in that pocket. I think, and speaking of the ACC, I think Miami is that team for me in college football. Yeah.
42:22
Like, I hear a lot of folks who just are all about it, and then a lot of folks who don't buy it at all. You, you don't buy it? I, we'll see week one. I'll be there, Gil. I will be, uh, boarding that plane- Yes...
42:35
on a red-eye and going to see my Irish take on Miami. And, um, you know, I know your good friend and, uh, friend of mine too, Chris Felica, is bullish on his beloved Hurricanes this year.
42:46
I think Carson Beck, believe it or not, is getting a little underrated this year. Because of his unceremonious departure from Georgia, I think people are sleeping on him just a little bit.
42:58
If you look at the raw numbers of Carson Beck, his, his two years as the starter at Georgia, Gil, they're, they're pretty impressive. Now, the big question with Miami is going to be the wide receiver position.
43:10
They lost a ton of production at the wide receiver position. They also lost a ton of production at the running back position as Damian Mar- uh, Martinez moved on to the NFL. So I think that's the question.
43:21
I'll say this about week one, and I think this is a sentiment that our friend Bear, uh, Chris Felica, does hold as well.
43:27
Uh, I think under 54 and a half is really a good play for that Notre Dame and Miami game because the strengths of those two teams are going to be upfront, both offensive and defensive line.
43:38
Notre Dame, I look at them in the secondary, even though they lost Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, I think that's one of the best secondaries in the country Notre Dame, uh, has out there.
43:48
So I think Notre Dame, when you look at what their strength is going to be offensively, Gil, which is the two-headed monster of Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price in that backfield.
43:58
They have a quarterback who's never made a start in his college career, whether it be Kenny Minchey or CJ Carr.
44:04
To me, 54 and a half seems a little bit high for a game that feels like could be a little bit played a little closer to the vest with an unproven quarterback on Notre Dame sideline, and then some questions at the skill position pl- uh, skill positions for Miami.
44:19
So under 54 and a half, certainly a look for me in week one for Notre Dame, Miami. Tim, I need a quick answer in five seconds. There's a prop at the South Point by meshbugga Chrissy Anders.
44:28
To win the national title, there's five buckets: SEC +135, Big 10 +140, ACC 12/1, Big 12 15/1, field, including your Irish, at 10/1. Who you betting? SEC. SEC. Going with the SEC at +135.
44:44
We'll talk to Futak about the SEC coming up. Thanks, Tim. Appreciate it. [upbeat music]
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