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Aug 9, 2024
A Numbers Game | August 9, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | August 9, 2024 | Hour 1
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44:41
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. visa.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you take it in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. Wyatt Tomchek to my right.
0:21
One final day for Wyatt in for Kelly Billings, the voice of UNLV women's basketball. What's happening? Not much, Gil, I'm just, uh, still on cloud nine after watching that amazing game yesterday, USA versus Serbia.
0:33
It is, you know, so, well, let's start there, but let me just tell everybody on the show today, Michael Monosono's gonna join us. Bet Bash four still in full effect over at Circa, just a, uh, short walk away from here.
0:44
What would you call that? A, uh, a five-minute walk, would you call it? It should be a five-minute walk, but I always get caught at the crosswalk, [laughs] the only crosswalk that you have to have. Yeah, that's true.
0:53
And you gotta dodge, again, the shankings and the shivvings. Yes. Uh, Michael Monosono, 2000 Circa Booby prize winner, will be here to, uh, talk all the bets he's making.
1:01
He, he bets beyond football, but he'll have, uh, specifically an NL MVP bet that he is really, uh, all about. We'll get into that, plus, uh, so many more sports from him.
1:11
Chris Fallica, The Bear, from Fox Sports with all of his bets heading into the weekend. Rufus Peabody, the greatest sports bettor of his generation, I will call him. Uh, he was supposed to be here on Wednesday.
1:21
Rufus has a really large brain, and, uh, he's the smartest person you will ever meet, uh, but he has difficulty with, uh, with the concept of Wednesdays, so he was not able to be here earlier in the week.
1:31
So he says he's gonna show up today. We'll see. Maybe, I don't know. Maybe he thinks today's Wednesday. I have no idea. Uh, how much crap are you gonna give him on air here?
1:38
Oh, I think it's, you know, already, already known. Okay. Let's see if someone escorts him in. Maybe s- maybe Captain Jack will escort him here, I don't know.
1:44
[laughs] And then Jason Weingarten from under [laughs] a cloud of smoke. You may sense a theme of the guests on, [laughs] on this show.
1:50
Um, but let's start wh- wh- right where you just did, Wyatt, which is, you know, I, um [clears throat]
1:57
the, the spreads are so big, the pre-flop spreads on these USA games are so big that it, you know, a- and again, in the championship game, it's, it's a large 17-point spread as well.
2:06
USA took some money early on the USA-France final, and then I think, uh, France took a little back, but it's right around 17 points, give or take a half, wherever you're looking.
2:14
Um, for the, for the championship game, which is on Saturday at noon Pacific, 3:00 PM Eastern, I believe is the exact time.
2:23
The, uh, the consolation game or the bronze medal game is in the dead of night, uh, between Serbia and Germany. That one's in the middle of the night. Um, but USA-France right in the middle of the day for us on Saturday.
2:37
But USA beat Serbia yesterday 95 to 91. It's one of these things where, you know, y- y- you, you start to, you f- you're not really thinking about it necessarily beforehand. Some people might've had a pre-flop bet.
2:48
I didn't. But it's one of those games where all of a sudden the texts c- start flying around, "Are we really gonna lose to Serbia? Are we really gonna lose to Serbia?" We being the United States of America, right?
2:57
So I, the whole country's watching it at a certain point, and well down double digits, got it to within six or seven. So it was like late first half, a bunch of us were making in-game bets.
3:09
I thought at that moment, right, 'cause it was m- my, it was hovering at USA minus four and a half when we were down double digits. I got a USA minus three, swear to God, and I thought, "Oh, did I time that perfectly?"
3:22
Because then Serbia went right back up, right? Serbia led by 13 after three, and you're like, "Oh my God, what, what I thought was this KG super smart bet just looks terrible now."
3:32
And, and, uh, you know, at that point you could get USA plus four and a half. Um, you could get them plus points obviously. But then
3:40
the talent manifested and Serbia finally stopped making threes, which was the big thing. Um, but- I believe, I believe in the fourth quarter they did not hit a single one. That's right.
3:49
But- It was the, they said it was the power of Carmelo Anthony. [laughs] Is that what it was? Yeah. Him screaming?
3:54
[laughs] Uh, Bogdan Bogdanovic, uh, Alexa Brom, uh, Vrabovic, they, they were just absolutely amazing from behind the arc. And of course Jokic is there, right? So Jokic's the, the unicorn of all unicorns.
4:05
But the thing about the USA, and I just wanna say this about this game, 'cause obviously the, the US, there was a big six-point play in the middle of the fourth quarter, right? Um, KD hit a three.
4:16
Jokic was called for a foul while he was making that three. We got the p- we got possession, and then Booker hits a three.
4:24
[laughs] Um, so that, that really changed it from, oh, this could, you know, from probably not to, oh, this could happen now. Yeah.
4:31
I was watching the game with my roommates and I'm, and you know, they're, they're like, "Oh, it should be a four-point play." I'm like, "I don't know if it's a four-point play.
4:37
I think this is an off-ball foul," because- That's right... Jokic ran into Anthony Davis, who wound up running into Kevin Durant.
4:44
It's like, yeah, you want the off-ball foul because then you get the possession, and like you said, it was a six-point play. 100%. 100%. I mean, that's the difference right there. That was the big sequence of it.
4:52
But then, you know, look, the, the whole thing is that, and, uh, Wishnev, Will Hill, and I were, were texting a lot after this game about this.
4:58
You got to see, 95-91 by the way, USA, they don't cover the pre-flop, but for, for those of us who made the, uh, you know, bets of minus three and a half and below, mine was super just complete luck that I got there.
5:12
But Steph scored 36. He was 12 of 19 for the field, nine of 14 from behind the arc. Um, you know, and then, a- and people calling it the Steph Curry game, StatMuse anyway called it that.
5:24
36 points, eight boards, cheat code they say.
5:27
I will say this, a good Steph Curry game is still, I'll take a great Steph Curry performance over anybody else's great performance at this point in life, and have, have felt that way for, for years.
5:38
He kind of felt like, you know, Steph, I, it still blows my mind that he's never played for Team USA. Yeah. So this is like his, his, you know, his international moment.
5:45
He said he got totally, uh, he, he really got into it. Like, the, they're not playing for money, man. Mm-hmm. This is for country, right?
5:52
This is for get- for getting a gold medal, which is something, like in the case of Steph, it's not on his, you know, on his mantle at this point. But I just thought it was amazing. You know, we got to see Steph-
6:03
Scoring 36. LeBron, who's going to turn 40 in December, can still take over a game at any moment, right? And then there's, I used the word unicorn earlier. Has there ever been a bigger unicorn than Kevin Durant, right?
6:17
KD. Ooh, that shot was- A seven-foot shooter with unbelievable range. And so you got to see the three of those guys. The last time we'll ever see them together for sure.
6:28
Well, we don't see them together on the court at the same time in the NBA.
6:31
But the last time you got to see them in one shot, in one glance, and it just, if you didn't feel that yesterday, I don't know if you have a basketball pulse at all. It was just awesome to see.
6:42
And it also strikes us, right? Will said this first, where it's like, and none of the three are really relevant anymore in the NBA in terms of winning a championship. Sorry, Lakers fans, LeBron ain't winning it.
6:56
Steph, the dynasty is over now officially with Klay gone, right? And in the case of KD, the most peripatetic guy of all, trying to latch on wherever.
7:03
By the way, that's the sadness of the KD legacy, is that he will be as great as a player as he is. He will be equally remembered for, well, you didn't kind of do it yourself.
7:13
You just sort of latched on with the Warriors and then you went searching for another sort of By the way, maybe some people make the same claim about LeBron too. But anyway, it was just so great to see.
7:25
And now with the game against France, what's the feeling? Is the bigger feeling, well, they got their scare.
7:33
Now they're going to come out and crush Wenbanyama and the French team, which is kind of like a home game for France, really, to be honest. Or do they lollygag kind of like they did against Serbia?
7:43
Because that was the other thing that it showed. When they decided they were going to play, nobody could beat them. By the way, there was a moment also at the end. Joellen Bead couldn't box out anybody. Oh, man.
7:55
So even on the comeback, I was like, oh God, dude, get a board. Well, I think Steph might have been the leading rebounder. Or actually, no, LeBron had a triple-double.
8:03
But yeah, the Bigs were really struggling rebounding the ball there late in the game. It's like he had no fundamentals of boxing out. Did you see his dunk that he had? He almost spiked himself on the ball. Yes.
8:15
It's got to be a foul. The guy kind of barely like, all right, I'll let you go. And Bead just He made plays too on both ends of the court. I don't want to completely knock him. He absolutely didn't.
8:23
He made huge plays yesterday. But that inability to box out gave Serbia two positive possessions where they got a bucket where they probably shouldn't have. And almost a third where the ball went caroming around as well.
8:36
So anyway, it was awesome because I even And it was partly because I had the bet, obviously. But you got into it yesterday in a way that I wouldn't have expected I would have. Yeah, I mean, it was,
8:46
I think, a good test for USA. And I think it also helps the game of basketball. Like, you look how competitive it is around the world. Oh, yeah.
8:53
Many people think that France in four years is going to be the biggest competition for USA. So we'll see. I mean, you know, France did not look good in their game against Germany.
9:02
That was just an old-fashioned Big Ten basketball game where it's 42-39, it felt like. But there's a couple other things, Gil. One, I got to say that Kevin Durant's shot there at the end was so tough.
9:13
Mid-range at the elbow. And then it was funny. People were tweeting out, well, LeBron finally figured out how to beat Jokic. He just needs Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Devin Booker, you know, all these guys. That's right.
9:25
Total cheat code team. But that was a great game. And shout out to Serbia. They couldn't have been any better, you know. And at one point, you're like, they're never going to miss. So that was awesome to see.
9:35
I don't know that we were planning on doing this daily every day this week. But here's your August baseball standings to the moment. The Padres. Every day it's a new leader at this point because it's so early.
9:45
But the Padres at 5-1 and also have the most. No one has more games left, right? 22 games left for the Padres. 5-1. They are the leader right now in the August most wins updated baseball. The Cubbies and the Giants.
9:59
Hey, how adorable. Giants a game above 500. They're only three games out of a playoff berth, baby. Magic. And the Diamondbacks are 5-2. So Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks all 5-2. The Brewers and Twins are 4-2.
10:11
And the Red Sox are as well. And then it's the Mets in eighth place, I believe. Is that correct? Yes. And the R Mets, who we have here at 20-1. They're in eighth place currently.
10:23
One game worse than I had them projected to be at this moment. But obviously a lot of baseball to be played. But I just want to point out, you know, we talk about we've been making these monthly bets in baseball.
10:33
For those who were with us pre-flop before the season, I made, you know, I always do my season win totals bets. And I made two this year. My single favorite was the Padres. The Padres are now well over 500.
10:44
I want to say they're nine games above 500. Let me check on that. But they're obviously off to the best start of any team here in this month of August.
10:52
And right now, yeah, in the standings, they are well above because they just need to get to 500. 80.5 was their season win total.
11:00
So, and that is done if you, you know, read the manifestos that I wrote at Beeson.com all these years. And if you listen to the shows, I do it the same way every year. I look at pie fag. I look at sequencing of runs.
11:13
And then and only then do I get into the personnel. So the Padres are doing very well. The other one was the Cubs. My second favorite was the Cubs. Cubs have a little work to do. The Cubs have to get to 85.
11:22
Got about 84.5, I believe. So the Cubs are still three games below 500. But again, off to a great start in the month of August. The beauty of those season-long season wins plays in baseball.
11:34
And I know it's an old school bet. And it's one of the few that we still make try to true every year. Is that you have 162 games. You can overcome negative variance if your handicap at its core is very good.
11:45
Michael Montesano, Circa Booby Prize winner on the other side. Numbers game coming up.
12:00
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12:52
He won the Booby Prize in Circa Millions back in 2020, the inaugural Booby Prize, $100,000 cash for finishing with the worst record- That's right... of them all.
13:04
And believe me, worst record, just as impressive as best record. I'm always fascinated. It's Michael Monosono, everybody, on the show. How you doing, man? Good. How you doing?
13:12
And I had to go 0 and 5 the last week to win it. Well, can we just... Uh, 'cause obviously we talked about that then- Yeah... but we haven't talked about it in a while.
13:20
But for those, again, it's five, you know, million super contest, five games against the spread every week of the NFL season. At what point did you decide I'm going for... You had two entries that year?
13:34
Two entries, yeah. At what point did you decide to go for the Booby? Week one. [laughs] After I was 0 and 5 and 1 and 4, and, uh, I didn't even really know about the Booby Prize, to be honest with you.
13:44
I just, I just didn't, I maybe I just didn't look in depth into it, and then I, I finally lo- I looked at it, and I said, "Oh, well, I still think I'm pretty good at this thing," 'cause I, year, the year prior, I think I finished, this was before Circa did top 50 and the top 100.
14:00
Yeah. Um, there was like top 10 I think they did. I finished like 36th that year in 2019, and I was pretty good in- So you're just good at it, period.
14:11
Yeah, and then in the, uh, the Gold Nugget, um, I finished ninth, and I won like 5,500 bucks this, in 2019. I was actually first, if you go back, you can go back and check the records. Yeah.
14:22
I was first going into the last week. Oh. And I had a wonderful 1 in 6 week- Ugh... and I finished ninth, and you wanna talk about a miserable human being for about a month. Brutality.
14:31
It was like 115,000, 120,000 for the Golden Nugget. Oh, man. I, I don't remember that part of the story. Yeah. So when, so did you go back, so you end up getting the, so from week one- Week one, yeah...
14:41
after, after week one you decided that. Did you go back at the end, and you said, "Oh, hey, I won the Circle Booby Prize and $100,000?" Yeah. But if you took your record from week two to the end- Yeah...
14:50
and just reversed it, what would you have finished for the top? I probably would've finished top three. So you're, shouldn't you hate yourself right now? Yeah, absolutely. [laughs] I'm glad, glad we established that.
15:01
[laughs] We're just here to make Michael feel bad about himself. Well, how much- Yeah... would you have won, Tom? Oh, wait, wait. Okay, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. No.
15:08
So that, so I, th- with the two entries, okay, finished the Booby Prize, but then I was reversing the picks. I was just going the opposite. I did finish 47th on the four- Oh, 40 I'm sorry. Okay.
15:19
Uh, 47th on the other- That's what I meant, yeah... from, from that, from week two, yeah, from week two. Okay. 47th, I think I won like $450 'cause there was like a million people that [laughs] were like- Okay.
15:30
So that, okay Yes, yes So, so you shouldn't feel so bad. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I shouldn't feel so bad, yeah. Okay. That's awesome, man. Yeah. Uh, okay.
15:36
Now, you bet, first of all, before we get to the other sports, 'cause I wanna get into this whole NL MVP thing with you. Yeah. What, what is your, I've asked this of others, I'll ask it of you.
15:44
What is your, you know, s- one of your stronger NFL opinions heading into the season that I, is either just anecdotally or, or, or by the market, you feel people f- people in, in majority feel the same way you do, or is sort of contrarian to what you've heard as sort of a, a conventional wisdom thought?
16:03
Like, what, what conventional wisdom thing are you like- Hmm... "No, I don't see it that way at all"? I think I'm more sold on the Jets than maybe a lot of people.
16:12
I mean, I, from what I've been hearing, um, you know, the, the Rodgers situation and Sala- and Sala, it's like I heard yesterday he could either win Coach of the Year or he could get fired.
16:22
He's- There's a huge variance in it. Huge. There's a huge variance, but, uh, it'll, it'll give... I think he's got all the weapons if he is somewhat, like 90% healthy coming back from his Achilles tear.
16:33
They have a top five defense. Now, defense sometimes it, it, it changes from year to year. Offense is usually more predictive. Um, but if they can get a top five defense, I think they're gonna do some damage.
16:44
They do not feel, and FTN pointed this out- Yeah... in their almanac. They, you know, there's, they were still top six DVOA back to back year. Yeah. So they've already done the sustain from one year- Yeah...
16:52
to another thing. Obviously that could change, but they don't feel like a defense that's gonna be anything but one of the elite. You would think s- you would, you know, you would, you would think so.
17:01
'Cause it was, it's, it's Quinnen Williams in, on the defensive line. It's Quincy Williams in the linebacking corps. It's Sauce in those, in, uh, in the secondary. You have three players, one on every level- Right...
17:11
that is just top of the heap. I mean, they won seven games with like a third and fourth string quarterbacks last year, basically. Yeah. I mean, I don't know how they did it. That's right.
17:20
I, I, it might be a little bit of credit to S- Sala. I mean, [laughs] I mean, to win seven games with no offense, that's pretty good.
17:27
Yeah, but what you were pointing out, for those who missed it, Matt Buckhalter was talking about this yesterday on the show, which is that S- uh, Robert Sala is the short shot for Coach of the Year, and he is the short shot f- to be fired first.
17:38
Yep, yeah. [laughs] Well, one of the- Yeah... one of the short shots for both. Yeah. So, so it's a wide variance on the team.
17:41
And Quinnen Williams might be a, um, a nice little look for Defensive Player of the Year that no one's talking about. 'Cause it, you have your top six guys- Yeah...
17:49
but he might be someone to, you know, to kind of see how the season's going. All right. This brings up a great, great subject with you. 'Cause I know you, you were on Puka Nacua.
17:58
We were on Puka, and I'll, I have another funny story about the, uh-... offensive rookie of the year this year too, so I'll tell you that Which, which of the results last year at NFL Awards just...
18:09
Because you had Flacco, right? I did. [laughs] Okay, so you're not a Hamlin guy. You had Flacco. No. But, like, after, and, and just trying to take your Flacco brain out- Yeah... of this, 'cause you, even you- Yeah...
18:18
were surprised you won it. Yeah. What i- what is the one that you are st- you're staying the farthest away from right now? Because you're just like, "I saw how it went down. I just want no part of this market anymore."
18:30
I, I think the def- uh, the defensive player of the year, it's tough. It's tough. There's- That's why I bring it up. The, the top- 'Cause you brought, you brought Quinnen.
18:36
Yeah, the top six, uh, guys, I mean, how, I mean, they're all equal. [laughs] Yeah. If they're all healthy, they're all gonna have similar stats. Um- And he's still not the name. He's not the name. Yeah.
18:48
And, and I don't know, you know, the stat- if he can get, get you the stats that the other guys can do. I mean, the other top, I mean, Watt, and Garrett, and Parsons, I mean, those guys are, they're, they're monsters.
18:59
You wanna talk about the Tyreek thing that you, uh, brought up off air? [laughs] I, I, I, I s- I sent you a text yesterday.
19:05
I'm like, "You know, you gotta do, you gotta convince me from not taking Tyreek for, uh, um, for MVP again." And then I, I go back and it was 100, he's 150 to one. I had him last year- Yeah...
19:16
100 to one, and- Not offensive player of the year. You're talking MVP now. MVP. Yeah. And, you know, he, he did get his contract and his money, and people think, "Well, he's just gonna relax."
19:24
I, I, Tyreek, Tyreek has a, a drive in him that a lot of people, I don't think, see, and he's pretty good. And, and his, and if he didn't get hurt last year- Oh, he's, oh, he's got a drive in him all right, Michael.
19:35
[laughs] You know what I mean? Yeah, I do, I do know what you mean. [laughs] Sorry, sorry. Yeah. You teed it up. I apologize. Yeah, that's, that's okay.
19:40
But, you know, he, he has a more than reliable quarterback to get him the ball, and he has other weapons so that, you know, you can't really key on just him all the time. Does he meet the Cleve TA guardrails?
19:51
He- I wanna, I wanna bring these up every time. Yeah. Yeah. Does, does he? No, he does not. He does not. Yeah. He does not. Yeah.
19:56
In, in listening to Drew and Andy yesterday, they went through their MVP process and, uh, it's, it's quarterback. It's a q- It's quarterback... it's quarterback.
20:04
And now the offensive player of the year is, you know, even though quarterbacks have won it in the past, they're looking more towards the wide receivers than the running backs. Th- this is the problem with that, right?
20:13
So by the nature of the fact that we do content, right? Yeah. You can fill content if you want, anybody can, by talking about, oh, wow, Tyreek Hill to win MVP. Yeah. But it just like, we have Aaron Schatz on, right?
20:24
Yeah.
20:24
Who's one of the 50 voters, and Aaron tells us every time, as much as it, it drives us crazy, we're, you know, ultimately we're not, we're not here to have a crusade, like, "This award should be given to this person."
20:36
We're just trying to win bets. Yeah. So if a voter, and he's correct, right? Every time he's correct. But what he tells you, he goes, "No, man, MVP is kind of, it's kind of the quarterback award now-" Yeah...
20:47
"even though there were exceptions in the past. And then offensive player of the year is the catchall for whoever's the next best player." Yep. And so that's, you know, we could...
20:57
It would take somebody, now this is where the Tyreek thing becomes interesting, right? It would take someone to have stats that are so off the charts, but not just record-breaking. Right. Record-breaking and then beyond.
21:10
Beyond, yeah. And then he's, he, he, besides the yards, he's gonna have to compile touchdowns. Right. And, uh, he- It's not enough for him to get 2,000 anymore, is it?
21:18
He- He'd have to get, like, tw- and I'm just making up a number. Yeah. But if he got 2,500, then we could talk about it. Yeah, yeah. I mean, his number went down, like, when we, you know, 100 to one last year.
21:27
I think he got, I don't know, don't quote me, on a 15 to one, I think, at one point. Right. But- But how much of that is us? It's, right. Right. It's, exactly, exactly.
21:35
It's not a sh- it's not a, a, a sharp market with that. Uh, any other foot- any other NFL bet that you love, that you have in pocket now, that you're like, "I l- I love that, uh, that this, there's a path for this"?
21:46
I just, I, I just made offensive rookie of the year bet plus 775 at Circa, Jayden Daniels. Yes. There it is. Because there's a path. Because he's a quarterback- Yes... who is going to start from day one.
21:59
And he could break Robert Griffin III's rookie, uh, quarterback rushing record. [laughs] Oh, wait a minute. Let me just think about it.
22:04
[laughs] Uh, the, for, he, I, by the way, really obviously people know that, know I feel about RGIII. Yeah. It really bothers me that his, that he is not remembered for that. Yeah, yeah.
22:14
He, he won the rookie of the year over Andrew Luck. He was the greatest. He was great. It was just an incredible, magical rookie season, and then the injuries killed him. Yeah.
22:21
But now everybody, you know, the i- the lasting image of him is, you know, face down- Yeah... when injured on the turf. Yeah. And it's just, his fundamentals went, went to hell.
22:31
Uh, let's talk about your NL MVP thoughts, 'cause I know you've been, uh, you have a great bet on this, and I'm curious if you'd advocate folks making that bet right now.
22:38
But we'll get into it, where Shohei is the prohibitive favorite, and then, uh, Ketel Marte is the shortest shot next on the NL board. That's next with Michael Montesano, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:50
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game here at VSiN. [clears throat] Pardon me. The sports betting network, live at Bar Canada here at the D.
23:06
Bar Canada, the Barrage, for those listening in Spanish. It's Gil Alexander, Wyatt Tomcheck in for, uh, Kelly Bittling. We get tweets at Beating the Book.
23:13
This is from Trust the Glove, "The, uh, Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce would like you to mention that you can, uh, still gamble at the urgent care center after a shiving or shanking." Thank you very much.
23:21
I will tell them. Uh, Mike Alvarez, "Good luck today, Gil, on moderating at BetBash." Oh, yeah, thank you for that, uh, Mike.
23:27
He says, "You should impress Billy Walters [laughs] with your vast knowledge of '90s R&B, and that some people consider you the voice of sports betting. By people, I mean me at Base Witter.
23:37
Oh, and let him know you're at the, you're the commodes authority." Yes, I will try not to mess up that panel.
23:42
I am moderating at BetBash today, the, uh, the Learning the Game: How Do Legislators and Regulators New to Sports Betting Learn Who to Trust and Who to Bust?
23:51
And Billy is on that panel, Billy Walters, as is Alex Kane from Sporttrade, uh, Shawn Flury, West Virginia State Legislator, and then we have a, uh, a former director of uh, licensing at the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, Susan Hensel.
24:02
But essentially, uh, that, that panel could go either way. But Billy, my first question on the whole panel's gonna be like, "You could do anything you want in the world, why do you feel that it's important to be here?"
24:10
Because, um, he feels like his sports betting, sports bettors need a voice, and he's right. We're, I think we're at a, we're at a huge inflection point.
24:17
So, uh, I'll try not to mess it up, Mike, is basically the, uh, the story. Jesse Welch, "I'd love to see the ratings in 15-minute intervals of that U- USA-Serbia game. The last half hour must have spiked immensely."
24:28
I completely agree. And Steve Fezzik has chimed in. By the way, I should mention Fezzik for two reasons. He has just chimed in about you, Michael. He said, uh, "Oh, yeah, uh, Mike is a really cool guy.
24:37
I was thinking, uh, if there was one guy I wanted to talk to more at Bet Bash, I saw him a couple times, but never had a conversation with him. Great choice to have on air." So Steve Fezzik giving you a shout-out.
24:47
Thank you. By the way, Fezzik, the same Fezzik who after the, our, our first leg of our three-team 10-point teasers, didn't even come close to hitting on the- [laughs]... on the Panthers game.
24:57
By the way, welcome back preseason football. Yeah. That was awesome. The, uh, the Panthers-Patriots game. And so Fezzik just couldn't [laughs] resist himself last night.
25:06
Fezzik, the greatest guy in the real world, then on Twitter he just goes nuts. "You idiots who bet that grab." It's like, oh, yeah, Steve, we can't think of anything you've bet poorly. Yeah. Uh, Purdue.
25:15
[laughs] Um, but uh, anyway, Steve gives you a shout. Steve's great. Um, okay, before we move on from football, there was one other thing- Yeah... that you wanted to mention. Yeah.
25:25
So yesterday listening to, I, I sat in on Drew and Andy Molitor's, uh, podcast. Deep Dive. Deep Dive, and they went through all the awards. I'll make this r- you know, s- longer story a little bit condensed.
25:35
And my son, last year, gave me, uh, Puka Nacua for Offensive Rookie of the Year. I had no idea who Puka Nacua was. This was, like, two weeks before the season started. I'm like, well, I just logged into Circa.
25:46
Obviously I can't, being in New York, I can't bet Circa. But I said, "He's 500 to one." I was like, you know. There w- And I couldn't find him anywhere on any of the offshores or whatever.
25:55
So then he got down to 100 to one. [laughs] And he's like, "I really think you should do this, Puka Nacua." I was like, uh, uh- Your son does not sound like this. You know, I know. [laughs] Yes. Yeah, yeah.
26:04
So then, of course, game one, Puka goes crazy. Uh-huh. And I was like- Oh... I gotta figure it out. I gotta make some calls.
26:11
And I got, uh, you know, I was able to get 25 to one in offshore and whatever, or 30 to one, I think, uh, you know, you had him as well. So who's the, who's this year's Puka? And so this year's Puka- Who is it?
26:22
He texts me. He goes, "Javon Baker from the Patriots, 315 to one." And Drew and Andy literally said it, like, five minutes later that if you wanna take a long shot, take Javon Baker at 315 to one.
26:36
I just was like, "Are you kidding me, my kid?" [laughs] He had it. Ah, yeah. So I did jump on it, and I think he's down to 200 to one at Circa right now. Javon Baker of the Patriots, by the way. Yes.
26:47
Uh, Javon Baker did, now what'd he have, two catches last night? Yeah. Did, not even. Not even. I think he was at- I think, oh, yeah, he had two, two catches for 11 yards. He, yeah. He was targeted four times total.
26:55
Four times. Um, I will tell you that FT, and again, I, I'll, I'll lean on their preview guide- Yeah... 'cause I can call it up the quickest here. Yeah. But they're, they, what they were saying is they don't love him.
27:05
They think he's just gonna add depth- Yeah... to the, ready for this, quarterback room. Yeah. Uh, it drives me crazy. [laughs] It, it's a thing now. [laughs] Everybody's saying it's a room. Stop it already.
27:15
Everyone has a room. Um, all right, Javon Baker. Yeah. Of the Patriots. Of the Patriots. I mean, who am I to say? I don't know if, I don't know if I can get behind that. Yeah.
27:23
But, but I'll have the same reaction after week one if he goes crazy. Yeah. I'll be like, "Ah." Yeah. Uh, all right, let's go to baseball. National League MVP, like in the American League, right?
27:32
The big thing I've been saying about the American League is Aaron Judge, prohibited favorite, and as great, and I mean great, as Bobby Witt Jr. is, I still can't bet him.
27:42
I still can't put money behind him because I know, un- unless Aaron Judge gets hurt, Aaron Judge is winning this. There's a Yankees bias also on top of it, as great as Witt is.
27:51
And so I could sit here and prattle on about, oh, Witt's this and Witt's that, but there's no point 'cause he's not going to win it against Judge. National League, Shohei is the behemoth, right?
27:59
He's the prohibited favorite. He's minus 1,000 at DraftKings. Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks, a week ago you got him at what? Uh, 40 to one. When I was in Massachusetts, 40 to one at, at DraftKings.
28:13
He's now six to one. He's now six to one. Second only- Yeah... to Shohei. And I've, I've been, I was, been texting you for a while about this- You have been... and just saying, "I don't understand these numbers."
28:23
I mean, I really do deep dives into the awards market statistics, um, for all, you know, MLB, NBA, and, and- Yeah... NFL. And, and, it just wasn't adding up.
28:33
Now, do I think Ke- Ketel Marte is gonna actually win the NL MVP when I made the bet? No. [laughs] But I said to myself, "What if something does happen to Shohei?" Yeah, it's a, it's an injury bet, right?
28:46
It, it, or the, the fact that he, you know, he is a DH. Yeah. And Marte does pl- he plays three different positions in the field. And, and, and Arizona's only three and a ha- three back.
28:56
They're, yeah, ig- they're only three back. Yeah. If they somehow can jump the Dodgers and his numbers are close to Shohei, when you add the defense, he has a shot.
29:08
Um, it was more of just a numbers play, thinking he's the second-best player- And the market just was cut. You know, it was land. It was Lindor. It was Harper. It was Cruz. They're all having good years.
29:20
Would you, would you recommend it at 6 to 1? I wouldn't recommend it at 6 to 1. I'll tell you why I wouldn't just off the top. You can get Shohei versus the field. The field is 6 to 1. Yeah.
29:30
The field is the same price as Ketels. Right. So you should, if you're, if you're going to do it- Right... just bet the field. If you're, if you're, if you insist on doing it.
29:36
Here are the, here are the slash numbers, home runs and RBI. We actually added, uh, stolen bases for Elly De La Cruz, who's the fifth shot on the board at 50 to 1.
29:44
Uh, because he leads obviously, uh, with 59 stolen bases. But Shohei in, in all the slash categories, right? Batting average, on-base percentage and slugging, he's ahead of Marte, right?
29:53
He's 302, 396, 18, whereas Marte's 295, 366 and 553. He's got five more homers, 34 to 29. He's got one more ribby, 81 to 80. And by the way, Bryce Harper, 20 to 1. Lindor, 35 to 1.
30:07
Remember there was a moment there where everybody was going nuts about Lindor, and you look at his stats and they're just... I mean, Ohtani's dwarfs him. Yeah. Yeah. Right? They just dwarf these guys.
30:17
So it is, sometimes we are too close to the sun or we're too much, we're actually too much in the moment because baseball is so long, and there are going to be two-week stretches where somebody shines, right?
30:28
Ab- absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. And you know, and you're, you're hoping as a me- you know, as a someone who, who has a position on Marte, that Shohei just cools down a little bit. Yeah.
30:39
And he stays hot the next two mon- the next two months, and if it's relatively close, maybe they'll, they'll say that Marte, you know, the... I don't, I don't-- I know we don't look at war anymore. Well, yeah. It...
30:51
But if it's close, can we look at baseball reference war instead of FanGraphs war? Can we do that? Because if you look at baseball reference war, you'll see Marte's a little bit ahead of Ohtani. Yeah.
31:01
Because I think that's more because of his defense. I don't know how many of these voters are looking at war, sadly. You know what I feel about Marte? Oh, it's... So I have Lugo to win AL Cy Young at 13 to 1.
31:11
I feel like the knock on Lugo is the same as the knock on Marte. Yeah. Which is, what, what do people say? I, I can, I can tell them everything in the world about Lugo. Lugo could win 20 games.
31:20
You know what they're going to say? They're going to say, "I don't think they're going to give a Cy Young to a pitcher on the Royals." Right, right. I feel that way about Marte. Small market. Yeah.
31:27
I mean, no one has been talking about Arizona all year. Yeah. And no one has even mentioned Marte at any, at all until like la- two days ago. [laughs] You, you talk about quiet seasons. Yeah.
31:37
No one talks about the Diamondbacks. No one. And they are, again, I have them at Arizona versus Kansas City at 400 to 1 in the World Series. I'd, I would not be shocked at all to see the Diamondbacks get back.
31:46
I wouldn't be shocked either. Yeah.
31:47
I mean, the variance in, in, as you've said it over and over again in MLB playoffs and even this year, I mean, going back and forth, the AL, I mean, it's, it's up for grabs and obviously the NL is, is up for grabs as well.
31:59
Um, this is for Wyatt because Wyatt is a Braves fan. And yes, ladies and gentlemen, this morning when we, uh, for the first day, uh, that we can say this, the Atlanta Braves are on the outside looking in.
32:10
Wyatt, are you aware of this? Did you check the standings this morning? See you guys later. Um, it has been a pleasure being here- See you, Wyatt... on a numbers game. Yeah, the,
32:17
the Braves had probably the absolute worst series that they played all season long. I mean, the Brewers just got base hit after base hit. Oh, God. Home run after home run. It was... The, the Braves just sucked this week.
32:29
Well, they are now officially on the outside looking in. Now, so we have it in this Vsain contest. We have it on numbers game at eight to one. In real life, I have it at plus 750 for the Braves to, to miss the playoffs.
32:39
Will Hill has it at double that. He has it at 15 to 1. I'm ha- I'm exactly half of what he has. They still have the eighth easiest schedule left in the season.
32:49
So you could, if you still think they're going to miss the playoffs, you can still get them at plus money, plus 175.
32:56
With the eighth eas- easiest schedule though, do you think that that's the bet to make, the no, or do you think they're getting there? I don't, I still don't think they're getting there.
33:04
I don't- You, you st- I still don't either. I don't think they're getting there. I have them eight to one and six to one to miss the playoffs. Yeah.
33:09
And I, I just, just, it's just a different team without Strider and- I agree... and Acuna and all the, and some of the other guys. They're just, you know. I agree. I don't think the schedule, the easy schedule matters.
33:19
I don't think it matters either. Sometimes it's just not your year, man. Yeah. It's all right. With injuries. Michael, a pleasure. We could, uh, we can talk about your bets, uh,
33:27
for a few more segments, but I will tell you this. Let's get you on regularly during the season. Absolutely. Always a pleasure, man. Absolutely. I'll see, I'll see you over at Circa later. Yep. Looking forward to it.
33:35
Thanks, guys. Michael, Michael Montesano. No Twitter presence for this man, so I can't give out a, uh, Twitter handle. Michael Montesano, Circa Booby Prize winner, 2020, the inaugural Circa Booby Prize.
33:44
Chris Felica, the Bear from Fox Sports, he's next on a numbers game at Vsain, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on Vsain, the sports betting network.
34:02
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34:12
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34:49
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35:02
Let's go to Alexander. We have, uh, we have a couple tennis plays today, but I am checking on price. Again, these are at vsain.com/picks.
35:09
Every host, every guest, every sport that they're betting in, every play is at vsain.com/picks. That is for subscribers. Uh, I have two plays today. They're both favorites.
35:20
Um, one on the men's side, one on the ladies' side. On the men's side, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, which I got at -122. It's now -137. Honestly, I would not play it at -137.
35:35
To me, the break-off point would have been about the low -130s.
35:39
Remember when the prices, as opposed to yesterday's, which were huge dogs, and you're like, "But you told me to play that, uh, dog at 30 cents less than it was."
35:46
When you're up in, like, the plus 300 range and it moves to plus 270, mathematically, that's not nearly as big of a moves, uh, move as it seems, whereas from -122 to -137 it is.
35:56
So I would not play it if I'm being, you know, really stickler about this. I wouldn't play it at the current price. If it comes back down, maybe it does, then I would.
36:04
Uh, Anna Kalinskaya on the ladies' side was at -127 against, uh, Amanda Anisimova. Kalinskaya is way out of whack, -156. So again, pays to be a subscriber because sometimes...
36:17
Now, just 'cause I got CLV, Lord knows, doesn't mean they're necessarily gonna win, but in the case of Kalinskaya, I would absolutely not play it at the current price.
36:25
Davidovich Fokina, if it drops down some pennies, I would, but not at the current price. Anyway, so visa.com/picks for subscribers, that way you will get the best of the number more often than not.
36:38
By the way, yesterday we had six plays. Some of them were huge dogs. Two ended up being scratches because they were walkovers. One of which was a big, uh, dog on Peyton Stearns.
36:50
We had Peyton Stearns, I wanna get the exact price right here. I think it was plus 250 something. Let me not lie about that. Peyton Stearns against Madi Keys yesterday was plus 264, pardon me, plus 264.
37:01
She's up 3-love in the third set, and Madi Keys says she's had enough. So if you had that play at a shop that only needs grading after one set, we had a winning day.
37:11
If you didn't, we had a slight tick of a loss, uh, on the net of those six plays yesterday. So anyway, that's how the cookie crumbles. We've been on the wrong side of those, those quittings so many times this year.
37:24
Chris Fallica joins us. He's the Bear, El Oso, from Fox Sports, the reigning czar of the Bear Bets podcast, and of course, he's looking forward to college football season courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
37:35
What's happening, Chris? Not much. Hey, have you been, uh, talking to Mitch and Paulie, by the way?
37:40
I heard them talking this morning of they, I guess they were doing some type of little thing with, like, best front man or best whatever it was, and, and they went, ripped through the whole Bob Seger catalog.
37:49
[laughs] Like, like, are they, are they angling to, are they angling to get to the D and take your, take your spot over there? These guys are trying to be at the D, for God's sakes. Uh, I don't know.
37:58
[laughs] That's so funny. Uh, Bob Seger, for those who don't know what the joke is, they play, uh, what do you say, every Bob Seger song humanly possible at this casino hotel? [laughs] It's just amazing. Yeah.
38:09
Except for the great ones. It was- Except for the best... it was funny when we were- Yeah... uh, going to Circa, uh, the other day. It's like, yeah, the, the music at Circa is a little bit more, uh, modern.
38:17
Yeah, little less Segery- Yes... I believe is what we like to call it. [laughs] Uh, no, but I, I'll be curious to hear that. Um, you have so many sports here that you wanna, wanna talk about. Yeah.
38:25
Can we start with the Olympics? Let's get that out of the way 'cause the Olympics- Yeah, I, I-... of course, in its final days.
38:31
Yeah, you, you wouldn't think that, uh, the, the bronze, the, the, the, the, the fi- the, the bronze medal match, or I should say the semifinal, the women's, uh, basketball competition would be very high on my radar, but, uh, was looking in, like, the France national team, they're -205 today in the semifinal against Belgium, uh, to win, and they're -175 to win the silver medal.
38:53
So, like, if they play the US, they're gonna be a massive underdog, and they're gonna lose to the US i- in, in the, in the fi- in the gold medal game.
39:00
So I was just thinking like, "Hey, you're basically getting a 30 cent discount or so on France to beat Belgium in the semifinal today, assuming they're gonna lose to the US."
39:08
So you're get- you're just getting a little bit better, uh, of, of a price there.
39:11
So if, uh, if betting on the, uh, the semis in France, Belgium, and looking for a little bit of a discounted price, that might be your, uh, that might be your jam today. All right.
39:19
Minus 175 to win the silver as opposed to 205 to win the game today. Anything else Olympics? And you know they're gonna get every whistle. Yes, and you know they're gonna get every whistle, as we, as we said yesterday.
39:28
Um, anything else Olympics, or is that, that was the, uh, long and short of it there? No, that, that, that was all I, all I really had.
39:34
I got a, I got a bunch of stuff going on in a par- in a parlay that, a big money line parlay, which, the, uh, the, the, the -3000 diver came through this morning- [laughs]...
39:43
so we're, uh, we're, we're, we're, we're good, we're good there. So yeah, no- nothing that, uh...
39:46
And, and, and I did see, uh, Drew's, uh, uh, Lisa Carrington, the, they won, she won the, uh, the, the tandem today or the dual- The canoe tandem... double, whatever they're called. Yes. So, uh, the new...
39:57
So that, that was, uh, appreciate that, Drew. And I, I'm curious to hear, uh, if he thinks we're still gonna be good on USA over 39 and a half and, and France under 24 and a half.
40:06
So that, that's my other thing with today too, 'cause I do have France minus, uh, France plus 230 to win Olympic gold in men's soccer, and I just don't... I, am I, do I buy some back on Spain?
40:18
Do I take Spain plus a half? Like, like, do I just wait for end game? 'Cause, I mean, they are the two best teams, and France, they have a tendency to play some very tight games that have gone to extra.
40:27
So I'm considering maybe buying a little back on Spain plus a half, and maybe, uh, see what happens there.
40:33
Um, you are not, we, you and I have talked on this show, we've, we've counted them, 11 different sports, something like that. Mm-hmm.
40:38
NBA is never one of them, but even you got wrapped up in that game yesterday, didn't you? I watched more Olympic basketball yesterday than I did in all of NBA, uh, through the entire 2023, '24 season.
40:51
Now, it was great, uh, because, a- and you hit on it early in the show. When these guys try and play their ass off defensively- Yeah... and were challenged, like, it, it was clear how...
41:02
And LeBron playing both ends of the court like he was, a- and it looked like vintage Steph with the Warriors.
41:08
Like, it, it, it was great, uh, to, to watch, and I, and I would expect that they would go out now on, uh, what's, is it Saturday or Sunday, the gold medal game? Uh- They probably- It's tomorrow, Saturday.
41:19
Yeah, they, they, they, I, I would think they'll go out and, and win relatively easy. They get, they, they, they got their scare yesterday, and I think they'll come out tomorrow and...
41:26
I mean, yeah, France is, is, is good and legit, but, um, I think it's more of a coronation tomorrow. And I say that as someone who has a, uh- Of friends plus 1,500 to win the cult ticket. Oh, well, there's that.
41:38
Uh, all right, when does your college football routine begin in earnest at Fox? Uh, well, well, we start, we started doing, we've done two podcasts so far, uh, on the Bear Bets pod.
41:48
Rip through, uh, some college, uh, football stuff. We had, we had, uh, uh, Colin Wolfson on from Action Network one week. We had, uh, Brett Ciancia from Pick Six Previews on.
41:57
Uh, Jeff and myself, Will and Sammy were back this week to talk to some, uh, some NFL as well. So yeah, we've had a couple of pods already and, uh, I'm gonna be, uh, cranking out some more, uh,
42:07
season props and season win totals and stuff on the, uh, on the website soon. But the first big noon will be, uh, August 31st, will be, uh, Penn State at West Virginia in Morgantown, which should be, uh, a lot of fun.
42:18
Morgantown. How do you get to Morgantown? Yes. Where do you fly, where do you fly in? Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh and about an hour and 15-minute drive south. I love that.
42:26
Um, all right, any new college play that you have made since the last time we've spoken? Oh, a bunch. Uh, I did play, did, did play Penn State to make the playoff, uh, at minus 140.
42:37
Now I, I'm not a massive Drew Allar guy at all. Uh, he- he's looked spooked last year and was, like, captain checkdown and refused to go deep.
42:46
And, uh, they did lose a couple wide receivers, but they did get, uh, Julian Fleming from Ohio State to transfer in.
42:53
If you look at the, the college football playoff expanding to 12 teams, I don't think there's a team out there in the power leagues that was done better by the expansion than Penn State.
43:03
Like, if you look over the last eight years, they would've been in the playoff six times. Yes, you've had the seventh straight losses to Ohio State. You lost four straight to Michigan.
43:11
Oh, by the way, they don't play Michigan this year, uh, as you see on the schedule. Yep. Uh, they were probably the best defense in the country last year. I think they're still loaded, uh, even without Chop Robinson.
43:20
Tom Allen is in from Manny Diaz. You bring in Andy Kolodziejski from Kansas, uh, to be the coordinator, and maybe he can get Allar to break out of that shell.
43:28
But I think if you look at that, that schedule, 10 and 2, uh, looks like a very likely record for Penn State, and 10 and 2 will get them in the college football playoff. By the way, you bring up Chop Robinson.
43:38
I mentioned this when I was talking about, uh, the Dolphins. Chop Robinson's 40 time would be the eighth fastest running back time- Ridiculous... in the NF- [laughs] in the NFL. Uh, what else?
43:48
Got 30 seconds here before the break. Uh, I bet Ole Miss under nine and a half. I know that's a little bit of a contrarian play. Uh, you, you go down their schedule, I mean, they got the Georgia game.
43:59
You think you still got it all. Ole Miss is one of those teams that, in recent history, they haven't necessarily been viewed as, like, one of these blue blood elite teams, haven't been expected to good.
44:10
It always feels like there's a game or two throughout the year that they lose that they're not supposed to.
44:15
So Ole Miss under nine and a half was one of the, uh, the win totals for that play, and I got a couple more after the break. All right, we'll do a couple more season win totals after the break with Chris.
44:22
He'll talk some NFL bets as well, and he has some Major League Baseball thoughts, the whole gamut. And Rufus has arrived after texting me, "The D or Circa?"
44:32
I think he has found where we are, so we'll have Rufus, the greatest bettor of his generation. But Chris Fallica, right on the other side. Numbers Game, Feast in the Sports Betting Network.
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