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Dec 10, 2025
A Numbers Game | December 10, 2025 | Hour 3
A Numbers Game | December 10, 2025 | Hour 3
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44:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Hour number three of the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM Channel 158. It's Gil Alexander.
0:17
That gentleman to my left is Kelly Bidlea. You don't mind me calling you a gentleman, do you? Uh, I've been called far worse. Yes, I believe you have. I don't know that you have, but I believe you have.
0:27
[laughs] You're like, "I believe you." Yes, I believe you. Um, Todd Wishnep standing by, as is Warren Sharp. We get tweets, betting book, Fairway Fred, "Give that man a raise.
0:36
Dustin's late night OT sweat on-air antics were fantastic." We agree. Dave Mack, "Can we get Kelly's barber to give him an on-air cut while we hear his c- sports conspiracies? Radio gold." Oh my gosh.
0:50
Oh, my dude would do it in a heartbeat. Yeah. My dude would be like, "Absolutely, I'll give you a haircut." No, I wouldn't... See, i- no, you're right. Yeah. That- that's the problem.
0:57
It wouldn't be, it wouldn't be the true authentic experience, 'cause Truman would love it too, way too much. Tru- Truman would, and my guy Dave would. My guy is [laughs] too, he's too raunchy for camera, though.
1:08
There's also that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, dude. Kevin Ryan, "Gil, the Bears pick," talking about Chris Felike's pick, uh, "yes, was under 20 and a half team total in the Bama game. You're welcome from producer number 10."
1:18
Kevin Ryan calling himself producer number 10, coming for you. Man. Um, no, we were, we were aware the Bears, probably should've said that, that, that Chris Felike was on yesterday.
1:26
He likes the Bear, uh, the, uh, the Crimson Tide under 20 and a half team total. What we were trying to remember was, was he laying the wood with Oregon, right? Was that what we were trying to figure out last week?
1:37
Yeah, Oregon. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we weren't sure about that.
1:40
Um, ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, Warren Sharp joins us right now, uh, as he does each and every Wednesday at this time, courtesy of Progressive Gasline.
1:49
And don't forget, uh, Warren has a great deal for all VSiN listeners this week. Right now, you can get the final four weeks of his NFL betting recommendations for the price of one week. That's a 75% discount.
2:00
Go to sharp.football, that's sharp.football. Click the top link, use code finalfour, that's the word final, the number four, on the rest of the season package to join today. That's the rest of the season package.
2:13
Join today. Once again, code finalfour. Warren joins us now from the DMV with a beautiful little Christmas tree behind him. Merry Christmas to you, Warren. Thank you, Gil. Merry Christmas, everybody out there.
2:25
Uh, yeah, certainly, um, the weather is going to feel a lot like Christmas. It's beginning to look like Christmas this weekend. We are getting a Arctic blast coming through. Man. Uh, and you're gonna see it.
2:38
And, and it's interesting the way that they've laid out the schedule this week, Gil. Take a look at that schedule.
2:42
All the 4:00 games aren't gonna be impacted by it, especially because the Chiefs play the Chargers at 1:00. But you're gonna have, like, five 1:00 games which are all outdoors and are either East Coast or Midwest.
2:56
You're talking about, like, Cincinnati, Chicago, uh, New York Giants, the New England Patriots game. So pay close attention to the weather in a lot of these games for either cold or in some cases a little bit of wind.
3:07
I think Philly might have a touch of wind or potential for some more snow in New England. So, um, a lot of interesting weather games in that early kickoff slate- Yeah... this Sunday. It is that time of year, for sure.
3:19
I, I love watching football in the snow. I j- I just think it's awesome. I remember my dad used to hate it. He'd be like, "It's not fair," 'cause he thought it evened the, the talent level. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
3:28
I'm with your dad. That was his thing. Though he was also the guy that says, "Give everybody steroids to make it an even playing field in baseball." [laughs] You- Big, big even playing field, field guy.
3:35
Good luck at any defense- Yes... trying to stop Josh Allen in the snow like that last week, okay? Let's talk about a game that has nothing to do with the snow.
3:42
Let's go to SoFi for the Rams and the Lions, one of the marquee games of the weekend, where the Rams are five-and-a-half point favorites. We were talking, again, huge implications obviously for both teams.
3:54
Lions more of a do or die. Rams just trying to win the division, trying to get the number one seed. What is your, what, what are your thoughts? What are the unique Warren Sharp angles on this one?
4:05
Well, this one's pretty obvious, but you've got the cluster injuries now that Brian Branch is out, tore his Achilles in the game, uh, last week against the Cowboys.
4:14
And that was, uh, like I, I view it as almost like the straw that breaks the camel's back for that defense, because of everything that he's capable of doing, all the different places they could line him up.
4:24
They could move him around a- and kind of make up for the fact that they already had massive cluster injuries in their secondary. Uh, and now that he's the one who's out, I think it's going to be extremely problematic.
4:37
And the guy that you don't wanna be going up against is Sean McVay in this situation, because he can find the smallest little, like, open, you know, l- little scab and pick it open and, and cause a massive wound just with one player being injured on your team, or one rookie that's out there, a- and let alone a whole secondary full of inexperienced guys that are clear step-downs from the starters at the beginning of the season.
5:02
And as a result, I think the Rams have a big upside here. Um, there's two key aspects where the Rams should have a lot of success offensively. The first one is in explosive plays.
5:13
Uh, the Lions defense, this is, you know, Brian Branch just tore his Achilles, so he's been playing, um, aside from being suspended that one game.
5:21
[laughs] Uh, the Lions ranked 26th in rate of plays to gain 20-plus yards. They ranked 29th in explosive play defense, and 30th in rate of completions to gain 10-plus yards.
5:32
So they were already one of the worst defenses, uh, versus explosive plays. Now they're going up against an offense that is great at gaining explosive plays. They're going up an offense...
5:43
A- and then the second factor here is red zone. This is one of the worst red zone defenses in the NFL, whether you look at red zone stats or goal to go stats.
5:51
And the Rams have changed things a lot this past year to utilize different types of personnel groupings down inside of the red zone.
5:59
As we know, there's a lot of talk about how much they're using 13 personnel, and one of the things I wrote in my book is how they needed to do something different in the red zone, because that was one of the biggest weaknesses of their team last year, was their red zone performance.
6:11
They've gone up against the Lions a couple of times over the last two years. They lost in the 2023 playoffs, um, and they lost in the week one of 2024 season.
6:22
So the Rams are 0 and 2 the last two years against Jared Goff's, uh, former, uh, sorry, uh, well, both of these guys are on the former team, but Matthew Stafford's former team, the Lions.
6:32
The Rams have had eight total red zone drives in those two games, and they scored only two touchdowns, in part because of their red zone problems. They're a much better red zone offense right now.
6:41
So I think the combination of their explosive offense matched up with the weakness of the bad explosive defense, coupled with those injuries, and then when they do get into the red zone, their improved red zone offense versus the Lions' weaker red zone defense, is just gonna be a lot to handle for, uh, the Detroit Lions defense here, and Dan Campbell calling plays offensively.
7:05
I think it's gonna be a fun, entertaining game, probably high-scoring, um, and, and there's a reason that the total moved up multiple points here in this one.
7:12
Yeah, you've talked about the, uh, the Rams' personnel in, in, in red zone situations this year. That's been a running theme. Interesting as we head into this ballgame.
7:21
And yeah, the, the Stafford-Goff trade, I guess we, we, we've stopped calling these matchups, "Oh, look, it's Stafford and Goff, the two guys that got traded for each other."
7:28
Uh, we've stopped mentioning that these, these many years later. But I guess if we look back, as great as Goff has been for the Lions statistically, I guess the Rams have to say We won the Super Bowl though. Yeah.
7:39
So we, we won this trade, I guess, in the end. At least that's how it stands right now. Um, what about Thursday night, tomorrow night? Not the, uh, not the sexiest game.
7:47
Anything on the Bucs and the Falcons tomorrow night? The first thing I was drawn to was, was the field conditions. This, these guys played on Sunday in a monsoon, where Tyler Shook ran all over the place. Oh, he did.
8:00
And that field was torn up. I went back and re-watched that game in the fourth quarter, and the field was a disaster.
8:05
It'll be interesting to see how quickly they get it turned around and in good condition, uh, for this game.
8:10
The, the, the key is, I, I don't know if, if Michael Penix was the quarterback for the Falcons, I would have had a better idea of how they might utilize Bijan Robinson.
8:20
But if you go back and look at the history of Bijan going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Todd Bowles run defense, Bijan has struggled massively in these games.
8:29
Um, but the way that you would then pivot is say, "Okay, let's throw the ball to Bijan Robinson," because this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense is the worst in the NFL defending running back passes.
8:39
And so it's a great opportunity to throw the ball to Bijan Robinson.
8:42
But you've got this wild card, which is Kirk Cousins, and Kirk Cousins doesn't, for whatever reason, like to s- it sounds counterintuitive, but just, like, make the easy, simple, direct throw.
8:55
I think he feels like it's beneath him. And so look at Bijan's target rate when Kirk Cousins is starting. It's not anywhere close to what it was with Michael Penix starting.
9:05
And as a result, like, Bijan last week, I think he only caught two passes.
9:08
Uh, and there's no reason that you sh- m- meanwhile, the games where Michael Penix is starting and Bijan Robinson sometimes is their leading receiver. Bijan Robinson is ca- you know, six, seven targets.
9:19
And so they need to utilize Bijan Robinson through the air in this game against a solid run defense that's the worst in the NFL defending running back passes.
9:27
I just don't know that I have the confidence, Gil, that they're going to do that with Kirk Cousins at the helm here, even though it's the most logical thing to do.
9:36
It's, it's so funny you bring that up and, and I wasn't... You didn't know that I was gonna bring up tomorrow night's game. You, you might have guessed that I would've.
9:41
But, uh, I happened to be watching, speaking of Stafford golf, blockbuster trade, one player for one player, I happened to be watching some, uh, Washington Commanders podcast, and they had Clinton Portis and Champ Bailey on as the guests.
9:55
Speaking of a blockbuster trade, one for one back in the day between the Broncos and the Skins.
9:59
But they were both on this, uh, Skins show, Portis and, uh, Champ, and they were talking about exactly this with the Falcons.
10:07
And it was fascinating seeing two guys who were both great NFL players, one a Hall of Famer in Bailey, who were just so frustrated talking about the Falcons.
10:15
They basically ju- just paraphr- just, just distilling it to one sentence. They were both losing their minds about, "We know who your best players are. Just go to them.
10:24
Stop making this game so much more complicated than it needs to be." Is that, like, uh, does that echo one of your biggest frustrations in watching the league beyond the Falcons, just league-wide?
10:36
Yeah, I mean, there's a saying out there, the assumption of rational coaching. Yes.
10:40
Like, b- do the most obvious things that are going to give your team the biggest upside, and so many of these teams see, like, something simple in front of them.
10:49
I don't know if they out-think themselves, like, "Oh, well, they'll know that we're gonna try to do that, so then they're gonna be prepared, so we should try something different." [laughs] That's right.
10:55
Like, d- d- don't, don't, don't overthink it sometimes. Make the right calls. Make the right decisions. The goal is to try to... I, I, the game is simple a- at times, Gil. Figure out the fastest way to build a lead.
11:07
That should be the number one objective for any staff. What is the, what are the biggest mismatches so you can build a lead the quickest in this game? Force somebody else to go to plan B, C, or D.
11:17
Make the changes that they didn't approach the game with a- a- and, and start out fast.
11:22
And usually, that's going to be getting the ball into your best players' hands as quickly as possible, and as frequently as possible, and as creatively as possible. It's very true.
11:30
It's like Princess Bride with the guys, like, "You think I'm gonna drink that drink. So I'm not gonna drink that drink because you think I'm gonna drink that drink," kind of thing. Uh, Warren, always a pleasure.
11:38
Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Warren Sharp, everybody, @SharpFootball. Remember the deal over at sharp.football for VSiN listeners with the code FINAL4. Check it out. Wishnev next.
11:50
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:06
[laughs] Speaking of, speaking of Wishnev off air, he plea- please do not repeat what Todd Wishnev [laughs]... Please, I'm gonna beg Todd not to repeat what he just said.
12:14
Uh, Todd Wishnev joining us momentarily for Wishnev Wednesdays. The man is on a college basketball heater. I can't even call it a heater, 'cause it's from the beginning of the season. It's not even a heater. Yeah.
12:24
Heater implies that then it comes down at some point. Right, that it was- It was... it was cold at some point. That's right. Hasn't been. We'll get his, uh, unit count, uh, momentarily.
12:32
I just wanna read this one tweet, 'cause I'm always touched by, uh, anybody who says something like this. Jeff Kuykendall, couldn't be any nicer on Twitter.
12:38
He says, "Any time you share a tidbit about your father is always a welcome addition to the show. I am sure you miss him dearly. Enjoy your day." Thank you, Jeff. That is so nice of you. Very sweet of you.
12:47
Um, I d- not even two hours go by where I don't think of him in some ways. But yes, uh, he, uh, he watched football with me, and I'm always touched when, uh... Will Hill always does this, too.
12:57
Whenever we're watching a game on the group chat and there's two consecutive losses on offense, whether by sack or penalty, whatever, my dad always said the same thing, as if he had never said it before.
13:07
He's like, "Jesus Christ, they're going the wrong way." [laughs] 'Cause Will always sends that text every time. I'm always touched by it. Yeah. Uh, [laughs] it's- Hey, he sees the game like I do, too, man, apparently.
13:16
This is where I, I, I catch a lot of heat for this, but it's the, if I, i- i- in, in theory, if I'm betting on something, I would like the playing conditions to be absolutely pristine- Right... for everybody involved.
13:26
I, I don't know if he thought that, uh, teams lost their way for a while. Like, they couldn't fig- "Oh, oh, they sh- sh- they should remind themselves the direction they're supposed to go," kind of thing.
13:34
Todd Wishnev joins us, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter at @TWishnev as part of Wishnev Wednesdays. Also, of course, the, uh, star of the Megapod. It's his podcast, after all.
13:45
And the star of Showtime's docuseries Action, where producers plucked him out of the crowd at the South Point Hotel Casino Of the southern tip of the strip. He joins us now from Squirrel Hill, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
13:58
What's happening, Toddy? Well, Gilly, I did hear that you were in the radio business, and back in 1980s there was a song by Kool & the Gang. It goes a little bit like this. Celebrate good times, come on. Da-na-na-na.
14:12
We're celebrating. Oh. And have a good time. There's a party going on. To- Toddy is- Toddy this morning, man... is live This kid, it's almost like he's 80 plus units up in college basketball. What's your record, Todd?
14:26
Well, it's, it's getting a little ridiculous at this point. I don't really think I'm this good at college basketball [laughs] to be fair. But I am now 314 and 195 for plus 82.05- Dude... bet size, you know, bets.
14:42
61.7% and at an approximate minus 119 bet size gets you plus 82.05 units. You know what I love about this so much- Man... is that you have- Way to go, Todd...
14:53
you have what, like, a thousand people now following you on your Discord? Yes. And there, I love it 'cause there's still, like, two or... E- there's still people out there like, "Oh, he sucks. He can't..."
15:02
I'm just like, "Okay, keep, keep saying that. Keep saying that." Well, I'm probably not this good, to be fair. Yeah. But, you know, we're now at 500 picks. We're getting to- [laughs]... quite a large number.
15:13
That's right. That was the thing that stuck out to me. I, I immediately picked up my phone. I'm like, "Let me go see how many bets I've made in the NBA this season." Just that, that- Yeah...
15:19
that alone is, is fascinating. Well, it's 'cause he's bet, it's all in-game. Right. He's betting totals for games, totals for the half, sides, all kinds of stuff. Uh, where can people go to be a part of this, Todd?
15:31
Uh, you, there's a post on my Twitter, like, from, uh, Thursday, last Thursday, where you can just l- uh, sign up for the, I mean, just hit the link for the Discord and you can get on.
15:40
I gotta, I gotta figure out how to get the alerts on the Discord 'cause I, I have the alerts on the Telegram, but I can't, I can't, uh- Yeah... I'm too stupid to figure out this setting. It's not that hard.
15:47
Well, it is for me. Um, okay. [laughs] Have you met me before? Um- Fair enough... okay. So- Yeah...
15:53
uh, usually when you come on here I ask you some version of the question of, "Hey, which teams are, uh, are better than, than most would suspect? Which teams are worse?"
16:01
Let's be a little more nuanced about it, um, in terms of teams that are good on one side of the ball, bad on the other, and vice versa. What do you got for us? Yeah.
16:10
I've, I've found, and the reason I brought this up with you, is I've found that oftentimes when teams are so ridiculously good on offense and ridiculously bad on defense, or the opposite, let's, let's just take the first example, right?
16:26
Ridiculously good on offense, ridiculously bad on defense. The overs have a way of, even if they make it so high, right?
16:33
Because they, they think, "Oh, this team's gonna score a lot and not gonna stop anybody," they just can't make it high enough. You know, because the numbers, when you get so ridiculous, you know?
16:42
And just to give you an example of some of those kinda teams, I ha- I went through the KenPom stuff and, and looked through. Like, for instance, Baylor is 12th on offense and 95th on defense.
16:53
And you're gonna say, "Wait, there's 350 teams in college basketball. Well, 95's not that bad." No, no, no. For a real team- Yeah... 95 is a disaster, okay?
17:04
So Baylor is, you know, th- they're 128th on pace, so very often it's hard for them to make a high enough number. Another example would be, um, Oklahoma, 27th on offense, 116th on defense.
17:16
Colorado State, 15th on offense, 183 on defense. I mean, some of these numbers. And then you get into, like, some of the more obscure teams. Oakland, 71 on offense, 315th on defense. [laughs] Oh, man. And they play fast.
17:30
They're 30- they play 36th fastest. So that's, like, an example of some of these crazy-ass teams. Providence is another one I love. Dude, last- 43rd on offense... last night Brown, Providence was just a smoking pace.
17:43
Yeah. Right. And so if you know this stuff, and you know what teams are, it can help you in the in-game.
17:50
Because yeah, maybe it's already, maybe it's already priced into the pregame, but it can help you in the in-game to push you to maybe make a bet you were not sure of, or to stay off a bet that you're not sure of the other way.
18:01
So knowing these kinda, that these teams exist and, and, you know, how they work and stuff. For instance, on the defensive end, Marist is 342nd on o- defen- on offense and 30th on defense. They're like a real team.
18:16
30th on defense and horrendous on offense, right? Or Cincinnati is a great, is the best example in the country. 218th on offense and 9th on defense with the 60th pace.
18:29
So they're gonna run, they can't put the ball in the basket, and they can stop you from putting the ball in the basket. [laughs] So, uh, you know, West Virginia, another example except the opposite on pace.
18:38
They're 114 offense, 41st on defense, 350th in pace. So if they play a team that can't, that also goes slow, they're gonna shut them down, they're not gonna score, and that's how Mercyhurst gets 38 points.
18:53
I mean, these things you, if you know these things it can help you on the in-game. VCU, 77th on offense, 15th on defense, 59th in pace. So again, i- if you can get a feel, here's one of the top teams.
19:07
Every- everyone wants to know about the top teams. Kansas, granted their top guy has been out for some games, 50th on offense, 8th on defense, 254th in pace. That's pretty defensive-oriented.
19:18
Uh, Austin Peay, 292 on offense, 97 on defense, 153 in pace. Again, if you can get, you know, if you can know these teams, even if you know 10 of them on each side of the ball, it can help you on the in-game.
19:31
Toddy Wishnia prepared for this segment. Really did. Love it. Love it.
19:35
Um, I, I, and look- Well, because I figured I wanted to make the segment better than the average, uh, 12 o'clock to one o'clock on Friday, which is [laughs] substandard. Oh, it's 12, 12 o'clock to one o'clock on fence.
19:46
[laughs] Uh-oh. That's right. That's like, I was like, "What's he referring to? Oh, I get it now." [laughs] Uh, okay. Shots fired. Um, okay. Uh, let me ask you about this though.
19:57
So- It's only funny here 'cause it took you a minute [laughs] That's right. Like, "Wait, what's he, what's he referring... Oh, I see." Um- By the way, Dr.
20:04
Bob on the, uh, podcast tomorrow on the Megapod, Todd, please be on your best behavior. Todd and Dr. Bob. Todd- Oh, stop. That is such-... has allegedly been rude to Bob in the past...
20:12
that is such nonsense Ooh I- it's just- And then we call-... a joke... him out on it, and then Bob is like, "He's not being rude," so then Todd feels he's not being ru- it's a whole thing.
20:20
Anyway, uh, real quick, B, though, and I, I know this doesn't matter to people while they're cashing all these bets that you're recommending on your Discord.
20:28
But I am just curious, 'cause I asked Greg Peterson, who was on earlier, I'm like, "Oh my God, did you see AJ Dybantsa yesterday? It was just unbelievable. This freshman class is just sick."
20:38
While you are doing what you're doing, because you are robot-braining all of this, you're looking at the box scores and you're determining whether bets, uh, need to be triggered or not, are you able to appreciate, like, individual performances and, like, s- and, like, isolate players?
20:55
You're like, "Oh my God, this guy's unbelievable," for the love of the game? Or has it just become so mechanical for you that, like, you can't even do that anymore? Well, teams I can on, as far as teams go.
21:07
And some, and some, you know, somet- you know, you start to know s- the, the guys on the teams.
21:12
But I feel like I do, like, on Michigan they've got that giant kid who used to be on UCLA, Mara, you know, who's incredibly tough to stop. And you know, you, you notice some of the big names on some of the teams.
21:23
But for me it's more like I, I know about teams as opposed to more than individual players on those teams. So I would say, yeah, on individual players, uh, it's not as, as big a focus.
21:37
But definitely teams you start to really know them. I mean, there's a ton of them where I'll go to myself, I'll look at the lines pregame, I'll be like, "Wait a second. I love this team," or, "I don't love this team."
21:45
And of course if I would've betted, I would've won easily. Mm-hmm. And I sh- if, I should probably take the time to at least bet some of these pregame small that just jump off the page at me.
21:54
You know, like yesterday Clemson plus the points against BYU, I was like, "Oh my God, that's crazy." Have you made- I mean, you know, Clemson almost pulled the upset. Probably should've.
22:02
Have you made any futures bets this year to win it all? Anything? Yes, I have. I actually bet a- about a week or two ago I bet two futures. I usually don't bet futures.
22:11
Um, but I did have Connecticut those two years they won, uh, early in December. Mm-hmm. But this year I took 10 to one Michigan and 25 to one Iowa State. Wow. Those are the two that I have right now.
22:21
Both looking really good at those numbers, especially Michigan. Yeah. My goodness. Is Michigan still really good? And the Zags are really good too. Gonzaga's great except they lost- The Zags-... to Michigan by 40.
22:30
Other than that they've been pristine. Right, but you have to take that off their record. If you look at some of these other teams- Yeah... they're beating the hell out of good teams.
22:36
So it makes Michigan even more impressive. Toddy Wishnev, everybody, @TWishnev if you want to, uh, hop aboard the Wishnev train, Wishnev Wednesdays. Thank you, Toddy. Appreciate it. See you tomorrow.
22:46
[upbeat rock music] Todd Wishnev. No problem. Megapod star. 80 units plus college hoops. Coming back on The Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you missed it the first time, good news, we're giving you one last chance to score an unforgettable Vegas weekend at Circa Resort and Casino.
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Have you, have you stayed in a Circa room before? No, I have never had. I have not either. Never have. You would think that at some point we would have, uh,
23:55
figured out that might be a, a plus EV move for us, but apparently not. Yeah, yeah. No. I'm sure it will happen at some point. It'll be that, that, that night that I need to stay here, you know?
24:05
We get tweets at Betting The Book. I just wanna read this one from Bobby Gettys. [laughs] "Naturally I had to look up Y.A. Tittle again. Amazes me every time."
24:13
We were talking about old quarterbacks in light of Philip Rivers perhaps playing for the Colts at age 44, and there's only been five others to play at age 44 in the past.
24:24
Once again, that list is, uh, of quarterbacks at, at that age who have played, 44 or above, Tom Brady, Vinny Testaverde, Steve DeBerg, George Blanda, Warren Moon, and now perhaps, perhaps Philip Rivers.
24:37
But we talked about, like, who's the oldest looking quarterback, and we brought up Y.A. Tittle. So Bobby Gettys said, "I naturally had to look up the Y.A. Tittle picture again. Amazes me every time."
24:44
Also, do you know what [laughs] do you know what the Y.A. stands for, Kelly? No, not at- You have any idea?... not at all. Yelberton Abraham. Excuse me? What a legend. Kelly's gotta love that name. Yelberton Abraham.
24:57
Yelberton? Yelberton. That's why he went by Y.A. Yeah, even in the '20s that was a good call to start just going by Y.A. I'm gonna- Yelberton?... I'm gonna go by Y.A.
25:08
Can I shout out- Uh, tweet, tweet at me if you've, uh, know anybody in your life named Yelberton still. Yeah. That's a hell of a name. Can I shout out Chris Fallica one time?
25:15
I, I know this is, like, bad form to do this on air, but I, I feel like I, I need to, uh, thank him on air. Chris, I w- I was Chris's plus one yesterday at the, uh, Urban Meyer, his colleague- Mm-hmm...
25:25
at Big Noon Saturday was, uh- You might know him as a famous college football coach... or other things. Um, and, um, I don't know what preseason.
25:33
But he, uh, he was in d- he's going in the College Football Hall of Fame, and they had a banquet in Vegas for it, and then they had an after party. Anyway, they ended up at Carbone last night.
25:42
You know how much I love Carbone. It's, I like to call it my home games here in Las Vegas. Yep. And so they ended up in the, in the back room at Carbone, and Chris had me over there.
25:48
It was an unbelievable spread of food. Just- Dude, you gotta stop talking about it... unbelievable. Thank God Wyatt brought in McDonald's. Yeah, got a hash browns here on the side.
25:58
I, I, I'm surprised I made it through the show today. Not yet, but, but close, because of all the food eaten. It was just incredible. And, um, all them, all them Fox folk were there Good time? Great time.
26:09
Thanks to Chris Felica. Thanks for him being on the show yesterday morning Yeah, it was great. It was great having him in... super generous. You know, you meet people in this industry, right?
26:16
You can draw a line right down the middle. Those who, uh, think they're too big for their britches, and then there's the nicest people in the world. Chris Felica, top of the list. Just wanna send him a shout-out.
26:25
Yeah, absolutely, man. Yep, absolutely. Um, real quick now. Oh, boy. Um- Davey T just sent me a picture... a video of, uh, Philip Rivers, his, I guess, introductory bre-, uh, press conference. Yeah.
26:40
He, he looks like he's been out of football for a few years. Really? 'Cause someone was- At least he's leaving that- I heard the opposite. Someone was saying he's in better shape now.
26:46
He looks like he's in better shape now than he did then. Okay. [laughs] Okay. [laughs] You don't believe that? Okay. I, I just saw him walk up to a, uh, to a presser. That's it. Okay. That's all I've seen.
26:56
Billy Charla- I could be wrong... Billy Charlabas says r- uh, "Todd needs the nickname Hotty- Hot Toddy, a warm, uh, seasonal cocktail, and the dude is on fire." Yes, he is.
27:04
I, I mean, to be fair, it's not, it's not [laughs]... Like, none of us are exactly crushing Philip Rivers. I don't think anybody ever looked at Philip Rivers and be like, "Specimen of an athlete." [laughs] Nobody did.
27:13
Right. And we say a lot of... To- Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes- Tom Brady. Yeah, yeah, a lot of these guys... also not the same. Yeah. Let's look at division by division, 'cause we haven't, like, done...
27:21
We haven't done this necessarily in all the markets we look at in the NFL, but let's just look at division by division real quick. NFC East. Oh, here we have Adam Schefter, by the way.
27:30
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, who suffered another left elbow injury versus the Vikings, is out for Washington's upcoming game versus the Giants. Great job by the crew out ba- uh, in the back there.
27:40
I th- I don't know who's on graphics right now- On top of it... but I saw, I saw the little breaking news bug. Darnell taking credit. There he is. Yeah. There he is. I... And a little...
27:48
If you watch, watch vsim.com, watch us on YouTube TV, you'll see that little breaking news flasher come up at the bottom of the screen. I saw it before I even saw it on my phone. Yeah.
27:56
Shout out Darnell, who's a Commanders fan, like myself. Mm-hmm. He was all over this. Shut it down. Sh- have this please season- Yeah... season end already, please. I was gonna say, how do you feel...
28:06
I mean, if, if they're ruling him out for this one. I didn't want him to play against the Vikings. They, he needs to, he needs to not play anymore this year. Yeah. Get, get the kid healthy. Just enough.
28:14
Too many injuries. And then Zach Ertz blew out his knee. It's just one after another. The most games lost to injury for starters by far this year, the Washington Commodores. I still f- I still feel similar. I...
28:27
It's different injuries, but I still feel similarly about it with Jaxson Dart. It's just what... Like, yeah. What are you doing? What are you doing? What are we doing? And Jaxson Dart is concussions. That's even worse.
28:35
Like, the worst thing you could do is get one of these guys hurt for a long period of time right now- Yeah, when they're-... when the season's almost over and- Yeah, when they're football players, Kelly.
28:43
If they're getting paid, they gotta play. That's what that whole attitude is. Yeah. Uh, Eagles in the NFC East. Win total remains at 10 and a half. Remember, they're 8 and 5 now.
28:52
Cowboys are 6-6-1, a game and a half back. So no tiebreakers will apply here because of the tie involved, right?
29:00
So the Cowboys, to win the NFC East, we talked about this yesterday, they gotta beat the Eagles by two in these last four games. So 4 and 0 versus 2 and 2, in other words.
29:09
And if you look at the schedules, again, it's not the most outlandish thing- Yeah...
29:14
in the world, which is why I bet all those Cowboys, you know, stage of elimination, I bet a couple of them, and the Cowboys to win the East at 10 to 1. Cowboys... Or let's start with the Eagles.
29:26
Eagles, home Raiders this week, the, the must-win of all must-wins. Then it's home and... uh, road and home with the Commanders sandwiched in between at the Bills.
29:36
So the Cowboys are looking at that schedule and going, "Okay, well, at the Bills, they'll chalk it up at a loss," and if they split with the Commanders, that's their 2 and 2. Mm-hmm. And in the Cowboys' case,
29:48
it's home Vikings, home Chargers, at Commanders, at Giants. They gotta win them all. That's the path. So I don't know. I, I'm just saying, I don't hate the Cowboys to win the division still. I really don't.
30:00
I, I don't hate it either. It's, uh, given the way that the Eagles are playing. I mean, let's... We should probably start with that- Yes... phrase.
30:06
Given the way that the Eagles look, and even coming close to winning the other night, Jalen Hurts, four picks, one fumble, five turnovers. Two f- two turnovers on one play. Hasn't been done since at least 1978.
30:20
And someone... Who was it? I, I saw somebody say this. I c- I... Forgive me that I don't remember who said this. It wasn't me, but I, I... It resonated, which is Jalen Hurts non-clutch makes him a very ordinary player.
30:34
Mm. Like, his superpower was clutch, is basically what the, what the person was saying. Yeah. I think he's g- I think... I don't... I wanna say he's getting a little too much criticism right now, but the...
30:45
c- because, in my opinion, that entire offense and that entire team deserves that criticism. But man, what a, what a wild fall from, uh, last year.
30:52
Can you imagine after the Super Bowl just being like, "Well, here's what's gonna happen next year, guys. Saquon is gonna be a shell of his former self." Ri- right.
30:58
All the s- "Jalen's gonna be a f- shell of his former self. The tush push ain't gonna work like it used to." Like, all the same guys are back. Yeah. And all that's gonna happen. Yeah. It's wild. NFC North.
31:08
A- and that's the... A- and just to drive that point home, right? It is... If we sat here two weeks ago, I don't know if I would've had the same feelings, even when we were making the Cowboys bets.
31:16
I wouldn't have thought that the Eagles were gonna c- look like this still.
31:20
So when you look at the end of that Eagles schedule, you wanna say, "Oh, this is easy," but n- I don't think anything's easy right now for this team. Good thing the Eagles fans are handling it well. Oh, always.
31:29
Uh- Always cool... NFC North. Packers are 9-3-1. Bears are 9 and 4. Lions are 8 and 5. You see the win totals. Packers and Bears both set at 11 and a half. Lions at 10 and a half. Packers minus 250 to win the division.
31:41
Bears plus 310. Lions 8 to 1. Is there a bet here? Bears to miss the playoffs is the only thing I'd consider. Yeah, me and you are in on that already. Um, this one's a little interesting to me.
31:54
Like, okay, me and you think the Bears are gonna miss. You- I don't think, I don't know that they're gonna miss, but it's a bet I would make. It- Yeah. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Well, we made it, right?
32:01
So we hope we're, we're hoping. I'm saying, I'm saying now for people- Yeah, yeah... I would make it. Yeah. The, um... This really depends on how strongly you feel about this team.
32:08
You'd have to feel stronger than me, but if you're betting the, if you're betting the Lions this week against the Rams, I don't think an 8 to 1 shot is that, that ridiculous to take here
32:18
If you believe they're beating the Rams. Yeah. Yeah, no, I agree. Yeah, yeah. I agree. But to- That's something I'd probably be adding on if I was pl- betting them this week Lions riddled with injuries too, though.
32:26
I don't think, I don't think- Yeah... they get there. I think, I think this is the Packers to lose. I don't think the Bears win it either.
32:32
But man, but we, how many times this year have we talked about the Packers looking inconsistent? Finally, they've hit a couple weeks where they're looking pretty good.
32:39
I wouldn't shock me if, if they looked, uh, yeah, they're going to play the Broncos this week. If for some reason, that team doesn't look all that hot. NFC West, Rams 10 and three, currently with the number one seed.
32:49
Seahawks 10 and three, Niners nine and four. Rams and Seahawks with win totals, adjusted win totals of 12 and a half. Niners adjusted season win total, 11 and a half right now to win the division.
32:59
Rams minus 145, Seahawks plus 185, Niners seven to one. This is another one. Two, two best teams in football, Rams and Seahawks. Yeah. That's how me and you both have them in our power rankings, right? Yes, sir.
33:12
One, two- Mm-hmm... Rams, Seahawks. Seahawks second hardest remaining schedule in all the NFL behind the Colts. The bet here would be the Niners. [laughs] Wow. The Niners are still live.
33:21
Seven to one, like, they've still got a shot. You- next week you've got Seahawks, Rams. Rams have, Rams have an easier schedule down the stretch, though, than the Niners do. They do. Yeah. They do.
33:31
But you lose to Seahawks, right, let's say, I mean, if you- Yeah... lose Lions, Seahawks, y- the Niners are live. Do you agree with me?
33:38
Do you watch part of that Rams-Cardinals game and just be like, "This team is the best team in the NFL, and it might not be close"? Yep. Yeah, I would word it exactly. Yeah.
33:45
I don't know, but it might not be, even be close. Might not be close. Man, when they look good, they look good. Coming back, we'll do more of these, and we'll recap all the bets, including a, uh, extra from Warren Sharp.
33:54
Next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game.
34:12
Un partido de numeros for those listening in Spanish. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, Kelly Bidlin. Man, we got a great crew. The best. Love chatting with them off the air. Darnell, Roberto Moreno. [clears throat] Chris.
34:27
Absent today. Chris, Deep Thoughts with, uh, Chris Foster, um, obviously Danny. You somehow give- Danny Higgins... you somehow give Rob Moreno too much and too little love. Lair Bear, Larry Mir. Yeah.
34:40
Andre's hanging out. I don't know what he's doing. He's just hanging out. He just wants to be here. Andre, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Hey, he's laughs at my jokes. That's important. That's important. Okay. Very important.
34:47
That's, someone's gotta laugh at them. Nobody else is. Who are we forgetting that's here some days? Wyatt Tomchek's- Wy-... always helping out... Wyatt Tomchek, who, who by the way- Basically running this place...
34:54
Wyatt Tomchek, who is the king of the, uh, the Megapod. The Megapod doesn't happen without Danny and Wyatt. Every graphic you see on air, designed by Ryan Pineda- I-...
35:02
who I assume is just sitting at home in pajama pants doing that... Isaiah Vonbrinkle. Well, he runs the whole place. Typically responsible for hash browns, though not today. Wyatt responsible for the hash browns.
35:12
Did you already eat yours? Your, whatever they gave you? My sausage egg McMuffin? Yes. Yes. You did? Yeah. During the show? Yeah. It was delicious. Just- Starving...
35:21
you, you, you put down a whole sausage McMuffin with egg during a break? Yes. [laughs] Yes. Okay. Okay.
35:28
Do you wanna know a, you and Warren were, uh, you, you, you and Warren were having a great conversation before this spot. Oh, that's when you, that's when you went.
35:33
And I, uh, I to- I w- I was eating back there with the crew, and I said, "Wyatt, try to, uh, give me a McMuffin once a week. I need this kind of break." Must be nice.
35:41
Drew Bridge is on Twitter, "Rams next 10, next 10 days versus Lions and at Seahawks, and Niners versus Seahawks week 18, very possible. Enough value?" Mm. I, I, I don't hate it. You know me, Gil.
35:52
I'm not usually the guy, we go through these this late in the season, I feel like I'm usually the person that's like, "Well, you're gonna run out of runway here." Lawrence Carter has a cross sport parlay.
36:02
He's got the, the Rams to win the NFC, the uh- Like, did he just bet it, or is this one of those, like, s- check out, check out how great this is gonna be? I don't know if he just bet it or not.
36:15
Uh, he's got the Rams to win the NFC. Oh, no, he didn't. He definitely didn't just bet it because I see some of these numbers. Yeah. Rams to win the NFC at plus 650. He put all these together.
36:24
Uh, Oregon Ducks to win the, uh, college football playoff at, uh, five to one, and then the Los Angeles Dodgers plus 240 to win, uh, next year's, was it next year's?
36:34
No, this past year's Major League Baseball- All right, so we got, we got one home... World Series. So one is home. Uh, what is he, what's the payout on this? All right. 152 to one. Let's go. Let's go, Lawrence Carter.
36:45
Let's do it. I mean, like, secretly I hope you lose, but, you know, 'cause I've got the, I've got the Seahawks to win the NFC, so. Yeah, and I got the, uh, the Hoosiers to win, uh, college football.
36:53
Paul M, "Not mentioned very often, how many O coordinators has Hurts had?" Yeah, man. "Not learning lesson from hiring within the first time three years ago is m- uh, is more to blame."
37:04
By the way, six new coordinators in six years. Yeah, uh, as things were going great for Hurts, we, we never, we rarely brought that up. But between Oklahoma and Alabama, before that and the Eagles- Yeah...
37:19
yeah, man, it's been a lot. I, I, I'm kind of one of those defenders of him, still feel like I've always been a little... I don't think, like, I don't think he's great.
37:27
I think he gets overrated sometimes too, but man, he gets quickly killed and then m- But the reports this year have been troubling, right?
37:34
O- of just that there is kinda division in the locker room, and it feels like he's on one side and everybody else is on the other. He falls into my- You, yeah-... my-... you say it, you say it so well...
37:45
my, my body language- Yep... thing, which is, uh, in baseball, it's Robinson Cano, Camilo Doval, right? As long as things are going great and you have the nonchalant body language- Mm-hmm... on stuff, things are awesome.
37:56
But as soon as Robinson Cano hits below the Mendoza Line, or Camilo Doval starts getting shelled as the Giants closer, and then with the Yankees, um, or in football, like I say about a Jordan Love, right?
38:08
Jordan Love, you cannot tell what's happening. As nonchalant as can be. As thing- when things are going well, Jordan Love's never gonna take any incoming. And that works.
38:14
But if it doesn't go well, people who are too nonchalant Whether it's fair or not, I'm not saying it's fair, but people will look at them and be like, "Oh," I mean like, "Act like you care. Do something."
38:25
It's, it's America, man. Yeah. We demand answers. It's America. You must re- you must respond and answer for the mistakes you have made, and some of these guys, they don't want- Yeah...
38:33
they don't feel like talking about it. Remember we used- They don't feel like... They're not gonna act like they care about your pro- your concerns.
38:37
Remember we used to talk, this is a, this is a little, this is a little different from the nonchalant face. We used to talk about the Eli Manning face and the Jay Cutler face. Yeah. Jay Cutler.
38:44
Eli Manning won two Super Bowls with the Eli Manning face. Yeah. But Jay Cutler didn't do that, did he? No, he did not. No. No, he did not. He did not. The Jay Cutler face. I wonder if the Colts worked him out.
38:54
[laughs] Made you mad. Uh, the twist, it's no longer Philip Rivers, it's- [laughs] Yeah. Philip Rivers, man. It... Just from a, just from a, uh,
39:04
just from a ju- curiosity standpoint, don't you wanna see it happen, though? Oh, of course. Yeah. Of course. I wanna see him play. I- But again, separate, separate minds, right? Yeah. Like, I, I want him and think...
39:14
Like, I, I think there's a chance. I don't f- I... It's not like Philip Rivers was Michael Vick or anything, running the ball. Nope. Like, could he drop back there in a clean pocket and still sling it around? Yeah.
39:24
I'm a believer. Sure. It could happen. He's got great weapons on the Colts. Well, sling was never his thing either, right? Yeah. [laughs] He, he- Shotput [laughs] He shotputs everything.
39:33
I never could figure out his release. Weird throwing motion. I could never figure out. And apparently his tremendous prospect son, Gunner Rivers- Mm... apparently throws the ball the exact same way, we're told. Gunner.
39:46
By Danny Higgins. Gunner Rivers, obviously. Yeah. Jason H. Levit has the single reason why the Eagles versus Cowboys is even a discussion, is because the Eagles lost to the Giants 34 to 17. What w- what was that?
39:56
He didn't say what, though. He used the acronym. That was that weird Thursday night game during the, during the N- MLB playoffs, right? I believe.
40:04
Where it was, like, on another screen, and I was, like, fixated on the MLB playoffs, and, like, the Eagles were getting trucked by the Giants.
40:10
It's r- it's, it's not only that, though, it's they were up 21 to nothing on the G- on the, uh- Oh, yeah... 21 to nothing on the Cowboys, and were they 8 and 2 at the time, if I'm not mistaken?
40:20
Yeah, I mean, that's really, that's the turning point, right? That's the moment, right? It's the, the bizarro Kirk Cousins moment.
40:26
Remember Kirk Cousins' career turning around down 24 to nothing to the, uh, Bucs in the famous You Like That game? This is the opposite of that for the Eagles. Yeah, it's ex- it's exactly that. Yeah. It's exactly that.
40:35
'Cause you had the weeks before that, you had wins, wins over the Packers. Yeah. Win over the Eagles at home. Yeah. Go up 21 to nothing on the Cowboys. Win at... Well, Eagles didn't beat the Eagles.
40:44
Who did the Eagles play before the Packers? Wait, what? What, what are you saying? Who are you, whose schedule are you talking about there? Eagles beating- Yeah, you said the Eagles beat the Eagles.
40:54
Eagles beat the Packers, and before- Eagles beat the Packers, and the Eagles beat the Lions. Ah, there you go. And then it went up 21 nothing on the L- on the Cowboys, and then that happened. Yeah.
41:01
Um, here are the bets, again from Guessing Lines. Bengals plus two and a half versus the Ravens. Bills minus one. And the Patriots, Packers minus one and a half with the Broncos for me. We're actually missing a bet.
41:10
I'm also on the, uh, the Steelers minus three and a half as well. I have four bets in the NFL this week. Good God. And then Thunder to win the NBA Cup at minus 120. The Thunder begin the three-game arc tonight. Let's go.
41:25
Let's go, Thunder. I got thunder fever. Now, if, uh- [singing]...
41:29
if you do wanna take a step back, could just be like, well, the Eagles have had to play the Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Bears, and Chargers in five consecutive weeks. [laughs] So there's that. There's also that, right?
41:38
[laughs] Uh, I've also got Indiana to win the college football playoff at 10 to 1. Um, that was my
41:45
mid-season, "I think this team could beat any team/regret that I didn't bet Mendoza when Joe Peta did to win Heisman Trophy bet."
41:53
Also have the three Cowboys bets to win the NFC East at 10 to 1, and then stage of eliminations to lose in the divisional round at 12 to 1, to lose in the conference championship at 22 to 1. I cannot believe
42:05
I have bets on the Cowboys. Yeah, you do. Yeah. Big Cowboys fan. Yep. Betting is betting, though. That's right. Value is value. Get it home, Cowboys. What do you got? Thunder, uh, minus 120 to win the NBA Cup.
42:18
Uh, we didn't really talk about today's games all that much. I don't have anything. Just of note, uh, we're out to seven, seven and a half on the Lakers tonight. No Victor Wembanyama for the Spurs.
42:28
Looked like they were gonna have a chance to get him back. Looks like it's gonna be another game or two. That total on the rise, 240 and a half.
42:35
Little bit different than what we saw yesterday with some of these games getting bet to the under. Um, then Suns, Thunder, that line, 14 and a half. Devin Booker questionable for tonight.
42:45
I don't really have a great read on where the, where that's gonna go. Total is starting to drop a little bit in that game.
42:51
NFL for me this week, laying two and a half with the Panthers, one and a half with the Packers, and five and a half with the Cowboys. Will Hill on the show earlier on the show. Um,
43:02
on the show earlier on the show is redundant, but you get the idea. I got it. Yeah. Uh, he's got Army plus the points versus Navy. He got Army plus seven. I think it's six right now, consensus. He's got Army.
43:12
Not a standalone. There's a bowl game that night, too, between Boise State and Washington, but Army plus the points versus Navy.
43:17
He's got Oregon in the first round of the college football playoff laying the 21 versus James Madison. He's got Miami plus the three and a half at Oklahoma in the first round of the college football playoff.
43:27
NFL, which we didn't get to, he is on the Lions plus the points against the Rams, plus six this weekend. And he bet Philip Rivers NFL comeback player of the year at 18 to 1.
43:38
I gave an impassioned speech as to why I thought you should not bet this the first segment of the show. Will concedes that when he pressed submit, part of him thought that he was a crazy person.
43:48
I think he used a different term, but he did have some self-loathing when he pressed the button. Suns team total under one fo- 104 and a half versus the Thunder tonight. Will is all about the Thunder.
44:00
He's got them to win seven. He's got them to win 74, and he's got the Suns team total under tonight against the Thunder. Nick Whalen, our buddy from Rotowire, he's on the Pats plus one and a half versus the Bills.
44:10
We're oppo. He's laying the points with the Niners minus 12 and a half versus the Titans, and the Packers Broncos under from Nick at 43 and a half as well.
44:19
And then Warren Sharp, we didn't, we didn't me- we didn't get to this with Warren, but he's got Derrick Henry over 17 and a half rush attempts in the Ravens Bengals game. He, uh, added, "Could be a trap, but I like it.
44:32
I'm going with it." One of Derrick Henry's lowest rushing attempt numbers of the year. And then Greg Peterson's Fab Five, Norfolk State, Baylor under. Notre Dame laying the points.
44:41
New Jersey Institute of Technology laying the, uh, getting the points versus New Haven, and Nebraska with the points and the under in the Nebraska Wisconsin game. Enjoy from VSAN, the sports betting network.
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