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Dec 11, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 11, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 11, 2024 | Hour 1
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0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Beasin. Welcome in everybody.
0:36
Wednesday edition of a numbers game here on Beasin. I'm Ben Wilson in one more day for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin has always holding down the fort for us at our Circa Sports Book studio downtown Las Vegas.
0:48
A lot of good action last night between the Jimmy V Classic in college basketball, Kelly. We had the NBA Cup. We've got some Major League Baseball winter meeting news to get to.
0:56
I'm sorry my mo- my hometown Milwaukee Bucks could not cover for you. I mean, they were in danger of losing the game last night, but the Bucks and the Thunder advanced to your NBA Cup semifinals.
1:05
And, uh, if it were not for Jalen Suggs, you kind of have to give him credit, right, Kelly? Her- Herculean effort to get the magic almost across the finish line there last night in Milwaukee.
1:13
Yeah, they easily could have won that game. Incredible effort from Orlando.
1:16
Um, Milwaukee came out of the gates looking like, uh, they were just expecting to walk, uh, into the next round, and, uh, the Magic Man, just like they've been doing all year, playing tough, uh, basketball, forcing turnovers, pressuring them on defense.
1:29
They, they looked really good, and then that third quarter finally looked like things were gonna start to go our way. W- they dropped, like, 13 points in it.
1:36
Offense finally started to slow down, and then yeah, Jalen Suggs in the fourth, man. What was it, 18, 20, whatever he finished with.
1:42
Uh, incredible fourth quarter from him last night that, uh, prevented, yes, the cover from getting home. You're right, they easily could have lost the game.
1:49
I did get it in on a live bet, uh, in the second quarter on Milwaukee, which was a miracle cover at four and a half, uh- Oh, geez... with, yeah, 114-109 Down three with a minute to go? Yeah.
1:59
[laughs] Yeah, down three with a minute to go. That's a lucky cover. Um, so I'll take that one. But look, w- I try to be honest a- as we can about our bets. Got in on Milwaukee live. I had OKC last night. That got home.
2:10
Still didn't come close to break even. That's how l- how, how loaded up I was on Milwaukee pregame. Yeah. So, uh, bad night. The Cowboys are here in Vegas. They're all over the place.
2:19
They're screwing up my coffee routine, so I'm a little upset this morning, Ben, all right? Lost money yesterday, and I can't get coffee. [laughs] Drink, drinking energy drinks. These are a PM drink. This is a PM drink.
2:29
AM, I need coffee. Well, your issue is you need to throw in the, the, like, the 20, uh, rider rodeo parlays like we used to do back in the day purely based on name. That's...
2:37
I, I think that's what would get the, you know, the mojo in, in the correct direction for you. That's right, yeah. We need a solid bull riding handicap at some point this week. Yep. I think that'd be great.
2:45
I, I think that would be great. I don't know if we'll get that from our guest today, but we do have some great guests [laughs] coming up.
2:50
If, if anybody of, of the three you would handicap, probably Jason Weingarten would be your- Oh, for sure... your favorite in the clubhouse to have some, [laughs] some rodeo handicapping.
2:58
Jason will join us at our second hour, 11:15 AM Eastern Time.
3:01
He'll have a lot of thoughts on all the Major League Baseball moves that have happened over the last, a couple of days, as well as the Army-Navy game, which is the one college football game this week.
3:09
He is after Jonathan Von Tobel, will join us to talk about the NBA Cup, a couple games tonight, as well as some college football playoff thoughts in NFL Week 15, JVT in an hour at 11 Eastern.
3:19
And to kick off, our guests will go to Jim Root, a fellow Wisconsinite. Kelly, you c- I love how you, whenever I'm on, you just load it up with, uh, with friendly Midwesterners.
3:26
[laughs] Jim Root from the Three Man Weave will join us. It was an interesting night to say the least in college basketball last night. He comes up at 10:30 AM Eastern Time.
3:34
So you get the, uh, the Magic, they battle hard. Bucks do get the win. Bucks are short now. They're plus 270 to win the NBA Cup.
3:40
The, the bet that, uh, we were talking about yesterday that I at least, you know, felt like was, was reasonable to take a small piece in, Giannis Antetokounmpo to be NBA Cup MVP at near six to one.
3:51
That is down, down to, I believe, plus 350 as of last check.
3:54
And on the other side, it, it's sort of funny though, you're watching that game last night, Bucks pull it out, and then you watch the second game, and I'm like, "It's really gonna be fun when the Bucks, you know, find a way to get to the finals," and then just get steamrolled by OKC.
4:04
Because this Thunder team that after the super hot start to the year, maybe it cooled off a little bit, but last night in this true tournament win in advance format, I mean, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just went to another level, and a, a Dallas team that had been arguably the hottest, I would say, Kelly, over the last, you know, three weeks or so in the NBA- Mm-hmm...
4:22
nine and one in their last 10, uh, had zero answer as the Thunder win comfortably and cover. Total goes under, and they are now, uh, the short shots here to win the NBA Cup.
4:32
And SGA, your short shot to win Cup MVP at two to one. Yeah, I think n- no, no surprise there on either one of those. They should be favored. He should be favored, uh, in that market at least.
4:40
A- uh, even after whatever happens today, I would probably still say the same thing. Um, they'll be favored. He should be favored, uh, there. It, it was, it was impressive. We talked about it yesterday.
4:51
Ma- Mavericks have kind of owned this team a little bit here recently, and we...
4:54
I, I think this is a rivalry we're gonna see only grow from here, uh, over the next several years with SGA and Luka Dončić on these teams, and two of the top, top two names you gotta be on the lookout for, for MVP this year as far as who do the voters kinda wanna give this award to, um, they're next up.
5:11
Jokić obviously doing crazy things this year, uh, and has won it three times already. They're gonna be the next names up then when we talk about who could win MVP.
5:19
Um, he- heck of a game, like you said, though, from the Thunder, man.
5:21
They, they really were all over the Mavericks from, from start to finish in this game, holding Luka Dončić to 16 points on five of 15 shooting, holding Kyrie Irving, uh, back a little bit. Usually see one of those guys.
5:33
If one of them gets held back, usually the other one, uh, is able to have some room to operate. You just didn't see that last night.
5:38
I think my biggest takeaway from this game, uh, though, Ben, was, uh, you know, something we had seen in the past is the Mavericks with these bigs, a rotation of bigs with Gafford and Lively that they have really be able to capitalize on that and punish Oklahoma City for having a little bit smaller lineup.
5:53
You add Isaiah Hartenstein in there th- this year, and he finishes with, what, 13 rebounds last night. You just look at total rebounding overall, 52 to 44 advantage for OKC. That was really big, uh, in a game last night.
6:07
And then SGA playing like an MVP, um, in that game, dropping 39 points, eight rebounds, five assists, three steals. Uh, great game for the Thunder, and, uh, I, I think I... Just honestly a big mental win.
6:18
A- as much as we wanna... As big of a deal or little a deal as you wanna make out of the NBA Cup for, I mean, this kind of win in a game of somewhat significance, uh, between these two teams going forward is big.
6:29
And now you look at where, where OKC goes from here, and, uh, not only in the NBA Cup, Kelly, but something we've been at least noticing is the, the futures in general, and it's something we wanted to hit on as well because, uh, now you're sitting here, SGA your second favorite behind Nikola Jok- Jokic, three to one.
6:43
Giannis, by the way, plus 750, third overall. I [laughs] we didn't really get a chance to talk about this in depth on Monday. Mm-hmm. You, you had this as a bet.
6:50
You ki- we kinda threw it in at the end of the show since we were so heavy [laughs] NFL, but I was just thinking last night, watching, you know, Jalen Williams, it was a solid game.
6:56
Uh, and, and, uh, for OKC, he is your plus 150 most improved favorite right now.
7:01
But you have a bet in that market which has just come tumbling down, and there's also been a lot of injuries here that have impacted that, uh, as well, throughout the course of the last couple weeks or so.
7:11
Um, so that, with... And Tyler Herro we're talking about, who's now seven to one, at least in, uh, in that most improved market, which I, I was totally... I, I did not, uh, have any action in.
7:18
I was not aware of the, of the sort of pricing that you got. I saw it Monday. I'm like, "Oh, that seems like a nice long shot." Yeah.
7:23
Then I look up at my odds screen and I'm like, "Wait, this th- this guy's seven to one now." You got him at what? Over 50 to one? Yeah, 55 to one on, on Sunday, I believe it was. Sunday night he really got steamed.
7:33
Uh, as a shout-out to Michael Bonasano, we, uh, he- he's been on Numbers Game multiple times here before. Yeah. Uh, w- you know, he, he and I will exchange texts. I, I love talking most improved players.
7:42
My favorite award to bet, I think in any sport, is most improved player in the NBA. Um, I think, uh, there's, th- there's a little bit clearer path to what these winners usually are.
7:51
It's a little bit, little bit easier to figure out, but man, you've seen, you've seen the odds in this awards market bounce around all season long. Um, a- and I think we're gonna talk some MVP too. I, I...
8:01
You're just trying to pick off some longer numbers right now at this time of year, when so much of this is so up in the air with the top of the board.
8:08
Yes, I think the two Jalens belong there as the, as the favorites, but after that, you can start making a lot of arguments for some guys.
8:15
So yeah, Herro, I mean, look, he's up about three points per game, uh, fr- from last season. There's all these, uh, questions about what Jimmy Butler's future's gonna be with the team.
8:24
I think if he gets shipped out, uh, you're really gonna see Tyler Herro become kind of the go-to offensive player, uh, in Miami, you know, if he's not there already.
8:33
Uh, and you know, that's a big deal for a team that might be contending for a playoff spot. So I, seven to one, look, yes, like you said, I got it 55 on Sunday. 55 to seven is a massive difference.
8:42
I don't know if I'd be running to bet it, um, at seven to one. I, I, I...
8:46
We could bring up a third Orlando Magic player in this award market, uh, since the beginning of the season, but Jalen Suggs is a guy [laughs] that I've considered betting in this multiple times, and after last night, um, you can really see what he, what, what he can do.
9:00
And you know, he's gonna have these games wi- without Franz, without Banchero, where he can rack up some stats.
9:07
So if you are looking to get in on something right now where a number's gonna likely drop going forward, it'd probably be Jalen Suggs is what I'd tell you. An opportunity is, is right there- Yeah...
9:17
when you think about Franz Wagner out weeks. We still don't know when Paolo Banchero is set to return.
9:21
So that's your two top guys for Orlando, and this is two games now, two covers for the Magic, without their two top stars. Mm-hmm.
9:27
With, with the Wagner news coming out over the weekend, and Suggs has been awesome in, in both of those games, really carrying the Magic, uh, to a, uh, upset win over Phoenix over the weekend, and almost pulled off the upset, uh, last night over, uh, over Milwaukee.
9:39
Uh, how... And it's funny, with the Heat thing, and this is where it comes into your Tyler Herro bet.
9:44
I think we all watched how the start of the year played out and went, "All right, this is finally the year where we can, we can get rid of the whole Heat culture BS talk. This team's just been a dumpster fire."
9:51
But at le- It's, it's funny, the last 10 games, they're kind of out, out of sight, out of mind, and here they are. They're, they're, uh, top seven in net rating last 10. [laughs] They're, they've won 7 of 10.
9:59
So I was looking at some look-ahead markets for tomorrow. I was tempted to, to maybe look at the Raptors here catching a huge number, and then I'm, I'm kinda looking deeper.
10:05
I'm like, wait, Heat are actually playing really good basketball right now. I'm not sure that, uh, how, given how shorthanded the Raptors are, I want to step in front of that.
10:11
But it is interesting how this Heat team that we, we have loved to rip analytically for the last couple years, 'cause they just find weird ways to win tangentially and, uh, and, and do things that don't make a whole lot of sense, and yet here they are.
10:23
They are, they have shown a little bit of life here, Kelly, and I don't wa- I wonder how much of that, uh, has to do with the Herro resurgence as well in that MIP market. Yeah, there's that.
10:29
Jimmy Butler, uh, you know, playing some games again. And look, Bam Adebayo, uh, once again, as he's been doing for the past several seasons, flying under the radar as one of the best defensive players in the league.
10:38
I mean, you could, you could argue this is where... Uh, I know last year we got in these heavy defensive player of the year arguments with Bam Adebayo.
10:45
I, I'm on that side of I don't really know that he's ever gonna get there, or if he does, it's gonna be in a down year for the rest of the league.
10:54
It's just so tough when you're asking these voters to value, value rim protection, blocks, steals, things like that, versus a guy like Bam Adebayo who can kinda guard one through five, kinda does on a nightly basis, um, you know, whether you're seeing it or not, and does so at such an ef- high efficient level.
11:11
But you're just not seeing some of the counting stats, um, out of him that you're gonna see s- from some of these other guys, like Rudy Gobert for years, right?
11:18
He's always the classic example with how many blocks, and then for whatever reason, defensive rebounds he's getting per game would seem to matter so much more in this market.
11:25
So I, d- uh, not a bet I'm running out to make in that one, uh, but, uh, he's such a key to this team and, uh, it's gonna be interesting to see what they do with Jimmy Butler.
11:33
I, i- it's, would be an opportunity to try to get one kinda new look team, one more version for Pat Riley, and see if he can do something with it here. I, I love your bet though.
11:42
I'm, I'm, I'm gonna be rooting for it for you on your behalf. Tyler Herro, pride of Greenfield, Wisconsin. Let's, uh- There we go. Let's go... let's go. Greenfi- Yes...
11:48
the Greenfield Hawks, I believe, the, uh, the high school there, uh, in Greenfield, Wisconsin. Alas, we still have a lot to get to on the show today.
11:54
We'll talk some of the Major League Baseball news and notes, the big one, Max Fried, giant contract for the lefty going to the New York Yankees. We'll talk about that with Jason Weingarten a little bit later.
12:02
But up next, college football playoff. It's Win Total Wednesdays. We'll talk some win totals out there for the teams that are in the 12-team field, as we're just getting started here on a Numbers Game.
12:11
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12:27
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12:36
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12:58
We are just underway, Wednesday edition of A Numbers Game. We'll talk some college basketball with our guy Jim Root from the Three Man Weave in about 15 minutes. One more thought though, Kelly.
13:06
We were talking NBA to open the show here. Mm-hmm. And MVP market. We mentioned this, the second and third guys who were both on the winning teams last night, SGA of OKC, three to one. Giannis Antetokounmpo, plus 750.
13:18
But there's another guy, it's the Luka Dončić angle here, and I've been looking to find angles for Dallas. They actually slipped to plus 150 to win their division.
13:25
I believe they're a half-game back of, of Houston now, with a lot of game left, a lot of time left in the season. That's the one I'm intrigued on as far as a, an in-season future.
13:33
But Dončić here at MVP, that is at least close to triggering a bet for you, it sounds like. It already has. I, I bet him last week at 17, uh, to one, and this is...
13:42
Uh, like we talked about with most improved, most improved you're, you're, you're kinda trying to feel out these pl- feel out what the players are gonna look like on these teams, you know, and then also compare to the odds.
13:52
With MVP, we kinda know heading into the season, okay, what group of players really has a good shot at winning this, and I really think it's, in today's NBA, we're talking about four or five players, uh, with actually a legit chance of winning this award every single season.
14:07
C- just because of what the other guys that are in that group and what they have to contend with. Um, Luka Dončić, and l- and MVP is much more of a narrative award too.
14:15
We kinda go into the season expecting some guys to be there at the end and to be in this conversation, and Luka Dončić h- has been there for the past couple years.
14:23
Um, and it's, it's, look, it's been Nikola Jokić, uh, keeping him away g- uh, a couple times, and, uh, you know, there could be some other competition for him now.
14:32
But you see him anything over 10 to one, I think right now if you're looking to get involved is a good bet. I got him at 17. Um, but this time of year, this is what you're trying to do. Giannis at plus 750 right now.
14:42
Just a couple weeks ago I got him at 35 to one was as far as, a- as where he had dipped to. So yeah, I would love to have a portfolio that has SGA, Giannis, and Luka. That's what I'm, I'm ideally looking to do.
14:54
Uh, we talked about it, a bit about it with Drew yesterday. I can't remember if it was on air or off air. Jokić, Jokić has been absolutely amazing.
15:01
Of course, if he keeps putting up these kind of numbers, he's gonna win this award again. I, I, it's not even gonna matter about how many times he's won it before at this point. His numbers are so ludicrous right now.
15:11
Um, but w- we talked about it with Drew, is he gonna be able to continue this throughout the entirety of the season, and I got, I have questions over that.
15:19
Meanwhile, I think Luka Dončić, uh, you're playing on the second-best team in the, or one of the top two teams in the Western Conference in my opinion in Dallas.
15:26
Expect the wins to be up there for him, and then the stats that he's putting up, he might be dragging a little bit from what we've seen in seasons past. That slow starts for Luka though is nothing especially new.
15:36
He's still fourth in estimated plus minus over at Dunks and Threes. I love th- looking at that for, for individual player awards. 28.1 points per game. That's still sixth in the NBA. We only expect that to go up.
15:48
He's over eight rebounds. He's at eight assists a game. He's over two steals a game, which is actually kind of impressive for Luka Dončić. So I think right now- Yeah...
15:56
this is about making a bet and seeing where it's going to play out come May, June, that time of year. I think a thir- a double-digit bet right now- Yeah... Luka Dončić is a good one.
16:05
Well, you think about the, the angle on Nikola Jokić as well that people might not realize just because you watch how dynamic he's been, the productivity has, has been awesome so far.
16:13
Jokić has never played more than 34 and a half minutes, or has never averaged more than 30 ha- four and a half minutes played per game in a season. Yeah. He is at 37.6. I realize that might not sound like a lot.
16:23
That's three minutes. But, but that adds up over the course of an 82-game season. The amount that Denver's relying on him- Mm-hmm... it has, it has resulted in tremendous stats.
16:31
And if you were to- And, and for a guy who doesn't really mi-... you know, extrapolate it out Yeah, for a guy who doesn't really miss games, right?
16:35
Like, that's why his minutes are usually in that range, because they don't, uh, 'cause he doesn't wanna be that guy who's taking 20 games off during the season. I, and I don't expect him to.
16:44
I think what you, it's a great point, uh, on the minutes, uh, Ben, because that's, that's what's being required out of him right now for Denver. Jamal Murray is not the same player, uh, that he once was. KCP is gone.
16:55
For Denver to compete, Nikola Jokić has to be that good right now a- and I just, I don't th- I don't think it's realistic to expect those kind of minutes, that kind of production to continue throughout the course of the season, but it is Nikola Jokić.
17:06
He's the best player in the NBA. Uh, and he, if there's someone who could do it, I mean, you wouldn't put it past him. Yeah. [laughs] We'll, we'll put it that way.
17:12
He also has never averaged more than 18 field goal attempts per game in a season.
17:14
He's at about 22, so the usage has gone, gone up tremendously, and that's not a surprise when you talk about how many more minutes he is playing.
17:21
A good discussion here on NBA MVP, but it is Win Total Wednesdays, Kelly, after all. Fun segment. Let's get to it right now. Are the guys looking over or under?
17:31
It's another edition of Win Total Wednesday on A Numbers Game.
17:35
[upbeat music] All right, Win Total Wednesday is a reminder that finding value in college football playoff win totals might be hard, but hiring Morgan Morgan is easy.
17:45
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17:55
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18:06
This is a paid advertisement, as we are, we're mixing it up a little bit this week, Kelly. We are not doing NFL win totals per se, but college football playoff win totals. Fascinating market posted by a couple of books.
18:18
We've been looking at some of these DraftKings numbers, and it's, it's interesting, since these have been open they've, they've changed a little bit the verbiage.
18:25
So if you're looking at it now, what you'll see if you, if you go to that menu is it's actually yes or no to make the college football playoff semi.
18:32
But before that, some of these teams it was either one and a half on the win total Or a half. Yeah And that's, that's basic- So it's es- essentially the same thing here.
18:39
It- But that's what we've got now And Ben, we don't, we don't know that they're not coming back. DraftKings also does this a fair amount. They'll pull down a market.
18:45
I have a feeling that's probably been bet into a fair amount. They'll pull it down for a bit. [laughs] Little bit. You know, adjust some numbers, then put it back up. Sometimes it takes a while.
18:52
So these win totals could be back up. I think you're right, though. I think they probably just chose to replace it with yes, nos on the semifinals. But a lot of the odds still the same.
19:00
That was a very impressive, uh, Dan Dierdorfian, uh, double negative, Kelly. I'm, I'm- [laughs]... I'm not so sure that they're not gonna repost.
19:06
That was like the, I was, I, as a broadcaster, that was Dierdorf, uh- Oh, boy... that was a Dierdorf special- [laughs]... on the, on the NFL on CBS with Dierdorf. That's what I'm here for. It'd be a great day.
19:13
English major, Florida State University. I, you know what? I, no, I, you were just trying to pay homage to a, uh, a, a great on the, uh, on the NFL broadcasting lexicon.
19:22
There's one that really jumps out to me, and it's more that I'm surprised you're not having to pay somewhat of a tax for the possibility of a specific matchup, and that is Oregon. I love Oregon.
19:33
In, in the market that we're being offered right here, it's over a half win. So it's Oregon to make the college football playoff semi. They are the one seed. They are already into the quarterfinals.
19:41
They've gotten, they've gotten that part taken care of. They face the winner of Ohio State and Tennessee playing in the eight-nine game this week.
19:48
Oregon, just mathematically, should be priced higher than they currently are. They are minus 130.
19:54
If you go ahead and look at the lookahead numbers that DraftKings is currently posting, and there are other shops that are posting these, too, it is, well, right now, Ohio State and Oregon, who would meet on a neutral in the quarterfinals, Oregon's minus one and a half.
20:05
That, so that generally comes out to you'll be looking at the minus, you know, 125, minus 130 range for a money line.
20:10
What that is telling you, this price, Oregon to make the college football playoff semi, is, is in- essentially that they will be facing Ohio State.
20:19
And if you want to bet Oregon, you are basically betting Oregon to beat Ohio State.
20:24
You obviously only want to do this if you have pretty good conviction and a good feeling that Oregon would beat Ohio State, which I do, but that's only part of the point here, Kelly. Yeah.
20:33
It's the fact that Ohio State has not yet beaten Tennessee, and while they are likely favored to do so, they're seven-and-a-half point favorites, implied probability gives them a very, very good chance of winning that game, but it is not close to 100%.
20:46
And the lookahead lines are also out for Tennessee and Oregon, what that potential matchup would look like.
20:50
If Tennessee somehow goes into the horseshoe, pulls off the outright upset, Oregon would be a six-and-a-half point favorite. That correlates on the money line.
21:00
You're looking more like a $3 favorite now to make the college football playoff semifinal.
21:05
It's wild that you are not being forced to pay any sort of tax for the mere possibility, which is clearly greater than 0%, that it could be a Tennessee and Oregon college football playoff quarterfinal.
21:16
That, to me, is enough to say, like, what is, what is going to change between now and December, you know, and December 28th and into the new year, even if Ohio State beats Tennessee in this game, that would wanna keep me off betting the Oregon side regardless of its, of its an Oregon-Ohio State matchup?
21:32
So why not lock it in now, and if the upset happens in Tennessee's case, now you're getting an unbelievable price on Oregon to make the semis. Yeah, I love it. Absolutely love it.
21:41
That, that is the, uh, we were discussing it off air, but it, it is really, since kinda legalization and all these sports books that have been added, it's, it's all these markets that they try to add, and they're so fun for us to talk about.
21:52
And, and there is, there's value in some of them. We always talk about shopping from, shopping numbers from shop to shop.
21:57
Shop within the same book, 'cause like you're talking about, you using the same book's numbers and comparing the prices on these and finding value in one of the, one of these prop markets, I think it's awesome.
22:06
That was kind of the one, one of the ones that we first locked into.
22:09
It was interesting to see the g- the games and teams that they chose to po- uh, post a half versus one and a half, 'cause I don't think it always made sense, Ben, [laughs] of which teams they did that with.
22:19
I think the other one, as you're talking, obviously this is not for all bankrolls out there, but Tennessee under one and a half, like that is [laughs] say- I know it's minus 1400, but we're kinda talking to the same, uh, you know, same sort of realm here, right?
22:31
Ohi- it's Ohio State, and then you're talking about going on, uh, to play Oregon. So- It's a big ask, yeah...
22:37
it, yeah, that's a big ask, and same thing, if you're just comparing what money lines are gonna be, you're gonna get value on that number [laughs] I know it's absurd, minus 1400 is not something we re- regularly do or talk about on this show, but I just think you, there's not even Oregon, you can look over those same kind of matchups and find some value.
22:54
Yeah. If it, well, if it was one-two, you'd wanna lay a price. Like, I get there's a lot of negativity around Texas, but I mean, you're 11-point favorites against Clemson.
23:01
You would be 11 and a half against Arizona State. I mean, minus 205- 205... that also feels a, feels a touch light on Texas to make the semi.
23:08
We'll talk more colleges, but this time on the college basketball with our guy Jim Root from the Three Man Weave coming up next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:55
As we are back, it's a numbers game on this wonderful Wednesday morning. Kelly Midlin from downtown Las Vegas, our Circus Sportsbook studios. I'm Ben Wilson.
24:03
We go out to our progressive guest line right now after a very fun night in the college hoops last night, Kelly. The, uh, the Jimmy V Classic. Mm-hmm.
24:10
Little upset, Arkansas pulls off a big win over Michigan, and we go out to our guy Jim Root from the Three Man Weave, fellow Wisconsinite, who was, uh, correcting me in the break, my, uh, my high school, uh, regional knowledge- [laughs]...
24:20
uh, Tyler Hero, a, a Whitnall Falcon, and, and, uh, Jim, Jim- Embarrassed the whole show, Ben. God...
24:25
Jim, Jim way be- a way better, uh, basketball player than I, than I back in the, uh, uh, he, uh, he faced, he, he was in the same conference. So you would know, Jim. You would. Welcome to the show, man.
24:33
Great to have you. Yeah, happy to be here. Good to talk, uh, talk hoops. I mean, my, my claim to fame from, from growing up is playing against J.J. Watt in football and nearly dislocating my shoulder tackling him.
24:43
So, uh, it was a pretty prominent conference. There were some, there were some good players bu- up there in Wisconsin.
24:48
Dude, Wiscons- Wisconsin, uh, Kelly, I mean, you're from Florida so y- you know, you've got this different, uh, you know, y- you think, I'm sure, like, okay, Florida, you're s- it's just a powerhouse of producing talent.
24:57
Wisconsin is bu- built, built different. I mean, there are some guys that come out there. I mean, it's a lot of, lot of, uh, lot of time on the farm getting, getting country strong. And, uh, I've, I've- Yeah...
25:05
I'm glad you're at least standing, Jim- [laughs]... 'cause I can't imagine you pacing. I was gonna say, I'd be making business decisions if I saw J- uh, J.J. [laughs] Watt running at me. Are you kidding me?
25:13
I'd be, "Uh-oh, uh, my shoe's untied. I fell over. Oops." Do they have like a shield face mask for him- Well, he wasn't, he wasn't running at me... back then?
25:19
I, I had him lined up to blindside him, and he still dislocated my shoulder. [laughs] I wonder what was going through young Jim Root's head as he went to try and blindside a, a [laughs] pre-NFL, um, J- J.J. Watt.
25:33
Well, like, what- Yeah... what Jim and I share that, uh, very, very unique thing in common. We're both from Wisconsin. Both are, uh, University of Missouri alumni. Um, did, did, did you get...
25:41
Uh, was, was there a- any emotion, Jim? A little tears falling? Was, uh, Mizzou... We... You and I were both at that game, what? 12 years ago now when...
25:48
Actually, yeah, 12 years ago now when Missouri and Kansas faced off for the final time in Columbia a- as Big 12 rivals. We didn't... We weren't sure if we'd ever see it again.
25:56
Well, they faced off, and, uh, Mizzou gets the upset win on Sunday. They storm the court, and there's a lot of questions now, uh, people asking, "What's wrong with Kansas here?"
26:04
But that, that was a, a, a moment of, uh, of nostalgia I, I especially felt watching that thing on Sunday. Yeah.
26:11
I mean, we've, we've got that, uh, rivalry revitalized the last few years, and it's just been completely one-sided. Kansas has dominated.
26:18
But I think the secret sauce, and you mentioned Arkansas getting the big win last night. Kansas played an SEC team. What are they gonna do? I- it's SEC basketball this year.
26:26
They're completely dominant, uh, in basically e- every challenge you put them against. The overall record is ridiculous. People that are doing bracketology right now have like 12 teams in them.
26:36
Obviously, that's probably not gonna last when they start playing each other and accumulating more losses. But the non-conference performance has been incredible out of that league.
26:45
And Mizzou over Kansas and Arkansas over Michigan, just continuing to add to that right now. Is Kansas there? I'm looking at early bracketology already. Three seed as it, as it stands right now.
26:55
Are they, are they destined to be that, that sort of team that Bill Self has had in the past that's like, you know, a, a week three or four that gets seeded high just because the committee has so much respect for them.
27:06
And, you know, they, they end up facing, what was it? The, the Bucknell year or the Bra- you know, the Bradley year.
27:10
There's been a couple of them where Kansas was, was probably getting too much respect by the committee, and, and bettors kind of saw that and picked them off.
27:18
Or do you see there still being a path forward here for KU once they get into Big 12 play, once they're a little more comfortable i- in that sort of setting to right the ship a little bit here?
27:26
Yeah, I think there's a path for them. I- i- they had a weirdly unengaged early effort against Mizzou. I, I don't know what that was all about. But we've seen them perform at a very high level.
27:36
Some of the wins that they've already pulled off this year, the UNC win at home and then, of course, the Duke win on a neutral court that even after Dickinson went out, they were able to hold up and, and secure that one late.
27:47
Uh, so I think we've seen that, that high upside from them. And as they get into Big 12 play.
27:51
And they've just got to figure out the complementary scoring, 'cause right now teams are making DeJuan Harris score or KJ Adams score.
27:58
A- and that's not really what those guys want to do, and it's not really the way the team was designed. It should be Rylan Griffin and AJ Storr and Zeke Mayo.
28:07
Uh, those guys have had some ups and downs stretches trying to figure out their roles in that offense.
28:12
The, the fortunate thing for Jayhawk fans is that Bill Self's in charge, and he is one of the best coaches in, in the country. And he's gonna figure that out, I think.
28:21
It's just a little bit of a trial and error, sort of figure it out as they go, um, how they complement Dickinson and Harris and Adams and fitting those new pieces in.
28:30
I, I think they will get there and, and be a rather strong, you know, two or three seed whenever it's all said and done. Yeah, dip now to 17 to 1 there for KU as we're joined by Jim Root from The3ManWeave.
28:39
Give him a follow @secondchancepoints. The one other team want to get your take on before we get into some of your bets for today. Wisconsin never liked by the computers. That's not a shock once again this year.
28:50
Uh, but curious your, your thoughts on a team that started off so strong. They get this resurgent season from John Tonje, who, a former Mizzou guy, just never put it together, was injured, banged up all of last year.
29:00
But back to back to back really tight losses. Uh, the, the, the first, the two of them were in Big Ten play.
29:05
Michigan and Illinois last night, uh, had a great first half, just got blown out of the water by Cam Jones and Marquette over the weekend here.
29:12
What do you make of a Badger team that seems to lack a little bit of depth, but, I mean, Tonje's been unbelievably impressive when he's been able to stay on the floor this year?
29:20
Yeah, it's just kind of an overall talent question. Uh, that was coming into the year with Wisconsin was, all right, how good actually is this roster a- and where can they actually go?
29:30
And they've had some guys be bigger contributors than expected. I think Nolan Winter's taken a tiny step. And Tonje being a star has kind of changed everything about role allocation.
29:39
It's like, all right, now John Blackwell can be the number two. Steven Crowl can continue being a complementary guy that hits shots and can pass out of the post.
29:47
Having a star has, has realigned maybe what their expectations are. But yeah, that rough early start to, to Big Ten play. A home loss at Michigan really hurts.
29:56
The Kohl Center typically a, a place where they're able to get big wins, and, and Big Ten home court is, is always strong. I, I think they're probably gonna float along the middle of the pack there.
30:05
They'll steal a couple on the road. It's just a different team now. They play a little faster. They're way more offensive focused. As a bettor, I've been...
30:12
Like, I, I can't believe I'm confidently betting Wisconsin overs and winning them comfortably. But that's the day we're living in right now with the way guard has sort of modernized the attack. Sure thing.
30:21
It ha- yes, it has been a little bit weird aesthetically to watch the, [laughs] the shift in Wisconsin basketball identity, [laughs] needless to say, over the last few years.
30:28
All right, Jim, let's get to some of your best bets for today. I love that you are going To, I call it the, my, you know, my conference, the WAC, where I get to call all the, the conference tournament games.
30:37
For me, the highlight of my, uh, broadcast season. There's always craziness that goes on in the WAC tournament, and you are looking to a team in the WAC. It's a non-con game.
30:44
California Baptist, the Lancers, injury-riddled last year, getting a great season from Dominique Daniels, and they go to San Diego State tonight, catching 15. I love...
30:53
I, I don't know if this was contractually obligated, Jim, but I love that you're bringing up a WAC team here, uh, with me on the show today. Oh, of course. I, I, I had to, had to shoehorn it in here.
31:01
No, I, I, I love Cal Baptist. I've loved them since the, the start of the season. I just thought they had the right pieces, and last year Daniel's got hurt. As you mentioned, he's their key point guard, floor leader.
31:10
Without him, they kind of tumble off a cliff. But they've got some interior scorers with Brown and Coleman. And, and really, this is kind of a general narrative.
31:18
We'll see this with, with one of my other picks too is this being finals week, and your favorites at home maybe aren't as motivated as they would be in the home opener or a conference opener.
31:28
You get these non-conference games that feel a little like, "All right, let's just get the win. Let's get across the finish line." Uh, you saw it with Duke last night against Incarnate Word, a rather unimpressive effort.
31:37
Um, but so I'm taking Cal Baptist here, going to San Diego State. I think 15's a little too many for a dog that has talent.
31:44
A- and I just don't know that this is gonna be a hyper-engaged San Diego State team where th- they're not ready to blow out a, a, a capable dog by 25 or whatever.
31:55
So that, that's one pick, and then yeah, as, as we get into some of the others, I, I think that narrative will come up again. Sure thing.
32:00
Yeah, Rick Croy, head coach for CBU, longtime head coach there for the Lancers, one of the most respected long-tenured mid-major coaches out there as well.
32:08
Yeah, we get the, uh, the, the Indiana directional school battle, the formerly known IUPUI Jaguars, now IU Indy, taking on IPFW. Little Jaguars Mastodons breakdown here, Jim, which we always love on a Wednesday.
32:20
Oh, yeah, Horizon League. So I guess this one doesn't quite fit what I'm saying as a narrative because this is a conference game.
32:25
This, this does matter a little more for Purdue Fort Wayne than it would be for a, a typical favorite at home laying 15.
32:31
But, uh, this is more about IU Indy to me, a team that has been circling the drain of Division I in the last few years, like bottom three in the country, but they brought in a new coach. IU Indy hired UIndy's coach.
32:43
Try to follow that. Uh, Division II University of Indianapolis. Uh, and that's kind of galvanized the program a little bit.
32:49
They've brought some players with from UIndy, and those guys have, have created a little bit of a core with some continuity from last year.
32:56
They struggled a little bit out of the gate because this team isn't overly athletic. But getting into conference play, I don't think they're gonna get overwhelmed by teams.
33:04
So getting 15 there with IU Indy against Fort Wayne I, I think, is a good spot. Perfect. Then we're looking over in, uh, Fresno State BYU. BYU off the AJ Dybantsa news. The, the first ever five-star recruit going to BYU.
33:15
How about that for the Cougs? Yeah, they, they dug deep into the pockets for that one. So congratulations- Oh, yeah... to them, uh, to, to BYU. But yeah, I like this against Fresno, a team that wants to get up and down.
33:25
They hired Vince Walberg this off-season, a coach that used to be at Pepperdine and then was in the high school ranks, the inventor of the dribble drive motion.
33:32
They really ping-pong back and forth up the floor, and I think BYU, off that loss to Providence i- in the Big East-Big 12 battle, is gonna be more than content to try to run up the score here, score a ton of points, and, and run with Fresno.
33:46
It's a high possession count, high efficiency game up in that elevation. Great stuff. He's Jim Root from the Three Man Weave. Always a pleasure, man, catching up with you. Ha- be well.
33:54
Best of luck to you with the plays tonight. Cheers, thanks, Ben. Good to talk to you. Absolutely. Fellow Wisconsinite Mizzou alum, Jim Root, uh, crosses off multiple boxes here on the, uh, the ANG bingo.
34:03
We'll come back, talk a little NBA Cup for tonight. How about some NFL awards? We'll do that on the other side of the Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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35:08
As we're back, a Numbers Game, first guest of the day in the books. Big thanks to Jim Root- Mm-hmm... talking some college hoops with us here from the Three Man Weave.
35:14
Still to come, Jonathan Von Tobel on the NBA Cup, some college football playoff, maybe NFL thoughts.
35:19
Uh, coming up in 15 minutes we'll have Jason Weingarten in a half hour to talk some of the big moves over the last couple days in the Major League Baseball. Uh, are they still calling it the hot stove, uh, season, Kelly?
35:29
I, I was- Oh, good question. We should ask Paul Carr that yesterday when he was down at winter meetings. Good question. Do, doing work for his real job. We al- we always forget about that.
35:37
We just bug him to come on here and talk about soccer. He does so much work with True Media Sports down there. Uh, we've got, we've got questions loaded up for Jason.
35:44
I got a lot of, uh, a lot of tweet submitted questions, uh, for Jason. We need an update on the claw machine, his claw machine empire. So it's, uh, uh... It'll be good.
35:52
He said he's got, uh, a couple, a couple bets he wants to discuss. Army-Navy this weekend I think he's got something in. Yep. So yeah, it'll be a lot to, lot to hit on with Jason.
36:00
Sorry, I was, I was too busy asking, uh, talking to Paul about fixture congestion yesterday. That's, that's right. That's, it's where you lost me. I apologize. Yeah. Fixture congestion. I, I... Yeah.
36:08
We should've, should've done a better job there. Well, we had the two NBA Cup games last night.
36:12
First two, and, uh, unfortunately, I'm, I'm a little curious why it was staggers that you had one east and one west, and now one east and one west tonight, since you'll now have somewhat of a rest disadvantage.
36:22
Granted, they, you know, there's time to recover. This is not till Saturday that they'll come out to- Vegas for the NBA Cup semifinals on the neutral floor.
36:28
But I'll-- More just selfishly 'cause I would have loved to have seen an opening number on one of the games for the semifinals today. But alas, we do get the other two games going on today here, Kelly.
36:37
And when looking at the updated lines, we have seen some money come in. It was, it was early Atlanta money. Knicks opened eight-and-a-half point favorites. This is Knicks hosting the Hawks tonight.
36:47
This got down as low as I saw six, six and a half, and now we are, uh, pretty aggressively back up here seven-and-a-half market wide. Couple of books touching eight now.
36:56
And as much as my initial thought was, man, Atlanta's been playing really, really hard against kind of a spotty defensive team in the Knicks to be catching this many points in a, a legit playoff-type setting of the NBA Cup.
37:08
You know, the more you break down the numbers, though, it's really hard for me to-- I couldn't totally get there with how the Knicks have been just playing elite on the offensive side of the ball.
37:15
Number one offensive rating over the last 15 games. Seems like they are really coming into form offensively.
37:21
And while I do have questions on the defensive end still for the Knicks, uh, was not enough to trigger a bet for me on that one tonight.
37:26
Yeah, this is, uh, just kinda going off my numbers and stuff that I look at, Ben, I, I think this is probably the line of all four games that was the most off to me 'cause I have the Knicks well into double digits favored.
37:40
Um, the problem is- And I get it purely, purely numbers-wise. Yeah... like, it, it makes total sense. Yeah. It's just something about this Atlanta team, man, it, it makes people wanna gravitate toward them.
37:48
Well, and it, it's, I m- I mean, something about this Atlanta team, right? It's been a couple years of this now, but this season really sums it up w- uh, sums it up well. Yes, they have improved defensively.
37:57
The pieces, the pieces that they've added or, or in the case of Jalen Johnson, the pieces that have come on for them have been great.
38:03
I think it's gonna be a fun team to watch, uh, here throughout the course of the regular season.
38:07
But you're talking about a team that has beaten the Celtics, the Cavs twice, and the Bucs, but then the Washington Wizards have three wins on the season. That's it. They're terrible. The worst team in the NBA.
38:19
Two of them are against the Atlanta Hawks. So- [laughs] Why not? Yeah... I, like, I-- tell me what this team is, Ben. I don't really know.
38:25
I- it's a team that I've been high on just in general over the past three, four years. Um, but yeah, a-as far as betting this game tonight, I, I kept coming back to it, man.
38:35
I've seen this Atlanta team show up or, uh, in different times this year. I did not expect it. I've seen them look terrible at times. I was not expecting it. So I'm not gonna get in front of anything pre-game with this.
38:45
I think Knicks will look, uh, to jump in in-game if there's an opportunity like last night, um, in Milwaukee that opens up. Uh, you know, Atlanta gets out to a hot early start.
38:55
I think you always wanna look, um, w- past the first quarter.
38:58
You, you'll see the, the, the adjustment in the in-game market, um, the mo- i- a bigger adjustment once you get into that second quarter, further away from what that, those pre-game numbers are.
39:08
So I usually wait for, you know, those first timeout, first couple timeouts and commercial breaks in that second quarter. That's kind of ideal timing for me, uh, of when I wanna try to make a live bet.
39:18
But, you know, into the second and third quarter, I'll, I'll mess around with as well, yeah. I think you get into the fourth, you're not leaving yourself much runway, uh, to let the bet play out.
39:26
Um, yeah, we'll do that sometimes, but it's, it's, uh, dependent on wh-what, what the scenario is for teams advancing for things, things like the NBA Cup, uh, quarterfinals.
39:35
So it would be, long way of saying, the Knicks are pass for me. Uh, I'll look to get in live. I think a Knicks team total over would probably be a good look, too, as you brought up.
39:43
I, I-- they've been pretty much the best offense all season long. Karl-Anthony Towns is just playing incredible basketball right now. Um, OG Anunoby, career high in points right now. He's playing great.
39:54
Of course, you got Jalen Brunson there. J-j-- uh, I believe Hart is questionable for this game tonight. Yeah, big questionable tag on him tonight, so that would be pretty important to make sure he's gonna go as well.
40:05
On the other side, though, Bogdanovic and Jalen Johnson both questionable, uh, for the Atlanta Hawks. I would expect everybody to end up going, but just something to be aware of as you're, uh, betting this game here.
40:15
Yeah, I'm seeing 122 and a half team total there for the Knicks tonight. 237 your total. That has been one-way traffic to the over. Open 233 and a half. Pretty strong move there of three and a half points.
40:25
It-- [chuckles] I mentioned one of the teams, the Hawks beat the Bucs. That was when the Bucs had won seven straight and were absolutely red hot. Hawks went into Milwaukee and won the game outright. You're right.
40:33
As far as game number two here, Kelly, it's a, a matchup we've seen a couple of times already, and it's the Rockets and the Warriors.
40:39
Both times Houston and Golden State have faced off, the Warriors have been without Steph Curry. Both times Houston and Golden State have faced off, the Warriors have come away with a tight win.
40:48
And now you go back to Houston here, where I was so prepared l- I was... I, I really wanted to bet, uh, Houston last week. Hmm. Ultimately didn't get there just because we didn't know the status of Curry.
40:58
Once the news comes out, line spikes towards Houston, then felt like it was too late, and boy am I glad I...
41:04
You know, imagine if I had just kinda speculatively bet some early Houston prices around pick 'em because, uh, th- [chuckles] you know, that would've been a really frustrating loss there with- Oh, you mean like-...
41:12
hitting the great-... exactly like I did, Ben? Exactly like I did- Oh, you did. Okay... and got my teeth absolutely- Oh... kicked in just like Milwaukee last night? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Sorry.
41:21
Th-th-those are a couple big bets a couple weeks in a row that have been very tough to take. Oh. Yes, that was ugly last week. Yeah. Sorry to cut you off.
41:28
Well, no, no, but I, I, I've, I've -- We were on the same line of thinking, and I feel bad that you, you went through with it and you h- you made a good bet and, uh, and I, and I didn't and I regretted it at the time until the game actually happened.
41:39
Yeah, you know what? Uh, that happens a lot. Good, good bet or bad bet, I'll take the bet that ends up with money in my pocket, though, and that wasn't the case. Um- Very, very true...
41:45
add on this game, w- I think it's up to 16 now. Warriors have beaten the Rockets 16 straight times. This is a streak that goes back to 2021. Just one of the more random, uh, uh, streaks that's out there in the NBA.
41:59
Um, look, e-everything I, I'm looking at would point Houston, uh, way for me. This is, they're six and four their last 10, uh, plus 5.4 net rating outside of garbage time minute.
42:08
Golden State Warriors outside, a-after that quick start have slowed down a bit, four and seven their last 11, uh, minus 1.2 net, uh, i- outside of garbage time minute.
42:18
Where I am looking in this game though, Ben, is at the total. I am on the under already. I'm on the under at a worse number. I got 222 yesterday embedded. Uh, 223 and a half is what we're showing right now.
42:30
Um, I think it's a good bet. You talk about over that same time period, you're talking about a Golden State Warriors offense that is ranked 28th in the NBA.
42:38
Houston, middle of the road, but you're talking about two top five defenses, uh, at the same time. So would be a lean to the Houston side for me. Uh, not gonna play that, though. We am playing the under.
42:48
Also, injuries in this game to be aware of. Alperen Sengun popped up yesterday on the injury report questionable. Um, th- they've got a couple guys questionable. Does look like Tari Eason's gonna go, though.
42:58
He will be big to get him back in the lineup. So more injuries to, to, to monitor. Um, uh- We did bring this up yesterday.
43:05
Kinda glad we brought it up 'cause I, I didn't know how much to make of that illness stuff that was going on in Dallas. We don't really know.
43:11
Maybe that affected them more, um, like I kinda hinted at, than we really saw play out. But P.J. Washington ended up missing that game yesterday.
43:18
So I think, I, I think initial reaction from people like me when you're seeing names on an injury report for an NBA Cup game is, "Okay, they're all gonna play. It's the NBA Cup.
43:26
At least means a little bit more than a regular season game."
43:28
But some of these questionable tags you still gotta be careful with, especially with players as, as important as Shane Gunther, so monitor that throughout the day. Sure thing. I, and have not bet this yet.
43:37
I'm, I wanna wait, and as we've, we've tended to see the general thought is, yeah, Golden State, they've owned Houston in this series. It's, you're, you're banking on...
43:45
And, and Nick, Nick Willem made a very good point on the show yesterday about the infrastructure that Golden State has in a game like this that you tend to feel comfortable in. But I'm just gonna wait here.
43:53
I mean, we're down to one and a half at a couple books, money lines now in the minus 122, 125 range.
43:59
It- were this to keep dropping, if we get down, you know, near, like, a pick 'em one, and I get a super cheap money line, I, it would be a small play for me on Houston tonight. Uh, 15 straight, by the way, Kelly.
44:09
It has not been since COVID. 15? Okay. See, last time was pre- [laughs] pre-COVID bubble. February 2020 the last time Houston beat Golden State. That is wild- [laughs] It's nuts... as we sit in 2024.
44:19
That is absolutely nuts.
44:20
Uh, but it just, just based on number, and you're right, I mean, Houston has just been at, at another, at an unreal level defensively under Head Coach Ime Udoka last 15 or so games against a Golden State offense trending in the wrong direction.
44:31
It, it's one that numbers-wise would really tend to you to believe Houston should be the side, but they have struggled so much- Yeah... in this specific matchup.
44:39
Uh, if I, if I get a discount, if I get a cheap money line, uh, that's what I'm waiting on here, more Golden State game day money, which I kinda think will happen, continues to come in throughout the day.
44:48
That's one hour down for us here on A Numbers Game. When we return, Jonathan Von Tobel gives his thoughts on the NBA Cup for tonight, also some college football playoff early bets as well. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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