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Dec 12, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 12, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | December 12, 2024 | Hour 2
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
[upbeat music] Back here at the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Biblin. This is a numbers game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:47
As we shift our attention away from the NFL for just a moment, let's focus on hockey, because we might have cooked up a best bet or two or three for tonight's heavy slate of action.
0:59
Joining us on the progressive guest line, he is the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NFL, Jake Khan joining us here on a numbers game on VSiN.
1:07
And Jake, the first place that I wanna start is with the New Jersey Devils, who k- are coming off one of the most crushing defeats, and I say that because it crushed my wallet as well the other night, when they absolutely dominated a game against Toronto and lost in overtime.
1:24
When you watch a game like that play out, do you like to back the team that is coming off of that crushing loss, or do you typically fade that team?
1:32
How do you handle a game that played out the way that that Devils and Maple Leafs game played out? Yeah, I think it's a great conversation and a great, uh, betting angle. Thanks for having me on t- uh, today, guys.
1:42
And I watched almost the entirety of that New Jersey-Toronto game, and you could probably run that thing back 100 times, and I would say New Jersey probably wins it, like, 96, 97 times.
1:53
[laughs] That, that's how dominant it was. And I- Not making me feel better. [laughs] No, exactly. I'm, I'm, I'm sorry, I'm just piling on at this point.
1:58
But, you know, Stolarz plays great between the pipes, and the, the Leafs do have, uh, high-end talent, so if you keep them in the game long enough, you know, they can have their mark like they did in, in that overtime as well.
2:08
But I would be more likely to back the team coming off that heartbreaking loss than fade them, especially when that team is the New Jersey Devils. The, the way that this team can play, and they can just swarm teams.
2:17
Now, LA's a, a tricky matchup tonight. They tend to defend quite well, and they're coming in on a, on a big win streak right now. They're, they're playing some excellent hockey, so tough to go up against the Kings.
2:26
I think it's a six-game win streak they come in on at the moment, but I just love the way the Devils are playing.
2:31
If they play exactly like they did against the Leafs a couple nights ago, uh, I think they win, uh, against, against the Kings tonight.
2:37
And I think you're getting a pretty good line just because LA's coming in o- on this win streak right now. A- absolutely. And, and I actually just ran a trend here in the database, taking a look at some recent history.
2:47
So I went back as far as 2021, you know, post-COVID years, so the past three-plus seasons.
2:53
If you lost a game where you had over 35 shots on goal and your opponent had fewer than 20, so that would mean it's a pretty one-sided game in your favor, but you lost that game. Well, since 2021, those teams respond
3:08
34 and nine record. That's winning at 79.1%. Give me the Devils tonight as my best bet. So it sounds like we're both either winning or losing money on the Devils tonight. [laughs] Because I, I...
3:20
Even before we spoke and before you gave me that stat, I, I did, uh, it did jump out to me a- as one of the plays I really like tonight, just based on the line.
3:28
And again, I a- I actually really do like the LA Kings, the opponent tonight, but at, at some point, they're gonna have to lose a game here.
3:33
Uh, and this is just what New Jersey, uh, does to teams, or have, have done over the last few years. They can just swarm you, uh, possess the puck a lot.
3:40
They can run up the shot clock, and I trust their goaltending situation a little bit more than LA's right now. So think you could probably find a minus 140, maybe a minus 145 out there on New Jersey.
3:51
If, if you wanna risk it with the puck line, I, I think you could probably do that, but I, I think the money line's a safer play tonight. So how do you handle Toronto now, who comes off- Yeah...
3:59
of that surprising win in New Jersey? They're at home tonight facing the Anaheim Ducks, who come in on the second of a back-to-back, and Toronto is a massive favorite.
4:08
I'm looking at minus 440 for the Maple Leafs here- Whoa... against the Ducks. Yeah, I, I tend to avoid these big favorites in the NHL, guys. It's just... It's not worth paying up this price, right?
4:18
Especially when there's 14 games on the board an- and you could find some, some other better numbers out there. E- like, even Leafs on the puck line, you gotta lay a little bit of juice with that.
4:25
That's how, uh, that's how heavy this is. But I, I do think they probably win this game going away at the end of the day.
4:30
Anaheim on that second half of a back-to-back, like you mentioned, they are gonna go with Lukas Dostál tonight, uh, between the pipes, who's been relatively good this year.
4:38
So I think the case for Anaheim would be basically what Toronto did to New Jersey the other night, right?
4:42
Where Toronto dominates the shot clock, Dostál plays really well, and he's been capable of stealing games for Anaheim this year. So if you wanted to make a case for Anaheim, that would probably be it.
4:51
I just think it's too much, uh, to not enough here, and, and Toronto's probably gonna win this one comfortably.
4:56
Well, speaking of big underdogs, the other night we saw the San Jose Sharks go to Carolina, where the Hurricanes were minus 500 favorites and almost lost that game.
5:04
Because San Jose, if people that don't watch hockey are just gonna, like, they say the Sharks are the worst team in the league.
5:10
They're always, you know, at minus 500 for the favorites, and they're getting massive plus money. But this is one of the best young, talented, fast, aggressive teams that I've seen in the past couple of years.
5:21
They're plus 170 tonight in St. Louis. All right, can you talk me off of betting the Sharks tonight? No. Or, or you riding with me here?
5:29
I, I, you're, you're talking to the wrong guy if you wanna be talked off San Jose this year- [laughs]... because I, I love this team. And look, they're still gonna lose their fair share of games.
5:36
They're still very much early in a rebuild. This is year two. They just drafted first overall and got Macklin Celebrini last year. So they're still building towards something.
5:44
But they're ahead of, of where I think a lot of us thought they were going to be.
5:47
And, uh, in terms of, of betting, you know, daily fantasy, all these sorts of things, there's a lot more value in this team than I thought there was going to be coming into this year.
5:55
The Celebrini shot prop has been great. Uh, the Eklund point prop is a market that I, I've really liked as well. A young Swedish forward for San Jose that's been excellent.
6:03
You could go up and down the list and I think find a lot of value, even just outside the total and the money line, but that's a big number. Now, St.
6:09
Louis has been playing much better since they made the coaching change and they brought in Jim Montgomery. He has given this team a little bit of a boost. I actually don't mind the over in this game, uh- Hmm... guys.
6:19
I, I... We don't know exactly who the goaltenders are going to be. Uh, it could be Alexander Georgiev, uh, for San Jose, who just came over from Colorado via trade.
6:27
Uh, so over 5.5, over 6, depending on what kind of price you wanna p- uh, play. And I also love a prop on the, the St. Louis side. Dylan Holloway, over 2.5 shots on goal.
6:37
You can get that around +125, maybe +130 if you shop it a little bit. Uh, he's, he's been firing it in a, a nice offensive spot for St. Louis lately. You mentioned Celebrini.
6:46
He's +200 to win the Calder Trophy as the NHL's rookie of the year right now. That's the second favorite behind Matvei Mishkov of the, uh, Philadelphia Flyers. I, I think Celebrini's the play here. You...
6:57
At +200, obviously I'm a little late to the, to the boat. I, I think I'd like to get a better number than that.
7:02
But the way that he's playing, with all due respect to Mishkov, who's scoring a lot there i- in Philadelphia, I don't know what goes on with torch sometimes and the playing time. I think Celebrini's the play here.
7:12
Who do you like- Well-... in this market? Well, I, I watched that train go by, like a train that I miss in Toronto trying to get to work e- every single day, because I, I remember he came back from his, his injury.
7:21
He missed a few weeks at the start of the season. He comes back. I, you know, pull up the sportsbook. Okay, what... You know, what, what's the, what's the Calder odds looking like? And he was about 7/1. Hmm.
7:31
And I thought, "Man, that's a, that's a big number for a guy with this kind of ceiling." And then you wait just a little too long, it goes to 4/1. You feel like you, you missed the boat.
7:38
And now, like you said, it's up to the 2/1. But I still think if, like, if you were getting into it right now, he is probably the play for me, just with his high-end ceiling.
7:46
Mishkov does continue to dazzle in Philly, and, and I really like him as a player moving forward, but Celebrini would be my pick.
7:52
If you're looking for a long shot, though, uh, Dustin Wolf, the Calgary Flames, the goaltender. Ooh. If any- anyone could build a case, I think it's a goalie starter on a team that could possibly make the playoffs.
8:01
So a bit of a long shot, but I, I do think Celebrini wins. Jake, well just look- if, just looking at the Stanley Cup futures, if you...
8:07
Let's just say you're a guy who happens to bet a lot of NBA, like myself, on a nightly basis- [laughs]... and you've been checked out of the NHL season- Yeah... a bit so far. I...
8:17
One thing I love about the NHL is we've only got, what, four teams that are shorter than 10/1 right now, uh- Yeah... to win the Stanley Cup.
8:24
Where, where would you be looking at right now for a team to win it all, if somebody wants a ticket just to have in their pocket for this season, that you think has, has some good value on right now?
8:32
S- so it's, it's funny you ask me that, uh, Kelly.
8:34
And a- actually, as a guy that m- mostly follows the NHL during this time, I, I'm not afraid to dabble in some NBA plays, uh, here and there, uh, as well, which actually have, have gone decently well.
8:44
Uh, for me, sometimes it's good to not be too bogged down by info, right? Yeah. You just jump in as somebody that casually follows.
8:49
You're like, "Yeah, this looks like a good play," and you don't overthink it a little bit too much. So there's something to be said for that.
8:53
But in terms of the cup futures, I actually placed a cup future bet earlier this week, uh, really just based on number than anything else. But I found a 35/1 on the Washington Capitals. Wow.
9:04
Now, this, this team has taken a lot of people, uh, by surprise, myself included, guys. I had them as not a playoff team this year, and they've slowly made a believer out of me. So I get it.
9:13
There's a lot of better teams, I think, on paper that you could say, yeah, they should beat Washington in a, you know, best-of-seven type series.
9:19
But this is strictly a play on the number, as a team that's leading the Metropolitan division right now, and we're getting 35/1 on a team that I believe will certainly be a playoff team and might even have home ice advantage in the first round.
9:30
So that's where I'm going. Uh, guys, I, I think if you're looking in that, you know, closer to the top tier, uh, I do think the Minnesota Wild are, are interesting to me. That was my pick, Jake. Yeah.
9:39
That's who I was gonna tell you. Well, well- Minnesota. Yeah, exactly. And I, I think your reasoning for it would probably be how well they defend. Yes.
9:47
They're getting good goaltending from Philip Gustavsson, and they've been doing it with guys on the shelf. Like Mats Zuccarello's been hurt for a couple weeks. He's still on injured reserve.
9:54
Joel Eriksson Ek, who's one of the better two-way players in the league, is hurt right now as well, and it doesn't seem like they've, uh, missed a beat. So I'm with you on Minnesota there.
10:02
18/1 right now on the Minnesota Wild, who have the fewest expected goals against in the NHL, and one of the top- I like it... expected goals for. So Minnesota, a very underrated team in the market.
10:13
All right, Jake, before we let you go, give us another best bet that you're looking at for tonight's busy schedule. Yeah, it's tough to narrow it down, guys, because I, I could go right back to Washington.
10:21
I just sung their praises in the futures market. I don't mind them tonight on the puck line against the Columbus Blue Jackets. I still don't think they're getting enough respect, uh, in the markets.
10:29
We talked about the Devils. I think we agree on that one. I like the Avs on the puck line as well.
10:33
It feels like Colorado is really starting to get this thing turned into gear, and they, they're just gonna be too much for Utah tonight, especially at Ball Arena, where they historically play well.
10:42
Uh, and I don't mind the Montreal Canadiens as a very slight home dog. I, I'm seeing some signs of life from this team lately. Pittsburgh is playing a little bit better.
10:51
Uh, but getting a little bit of plus money with Montreal as the home dog, and I might have to fire up the Patrick Laine goal prop and shot prop as well.
10:58
Ever since he's come back, he's, he's given Montreal a bit of a spark offensively. Real quick, Jake, we've got about 30 seconds left or so. VGK takes on Winnipeg tonight. The Jets are coming off a route of Boston.
11:08
It was 8-1, but forget about the score. There were so many fights in that game- Yeah... that I find it hard to see Winnipeg come into tonight with the same intensity off of that brawl that happened, uh, i- in Boston.
11:20
What do you think about maybe fading Winnipeg tonight? Yeah, I don't mind that. I, I don't love the Jets, uh, at this price against what I believe is a very good Vegas team.
11:28
Now, the thing about Vegas is they tend to play much better at home than on the road.
11:32
So being on the road, yeah, maybe it hurts them a little bit, but it doesn't mean that they can't go in there and, and win this game in hostile territory and, like you mentioned, kind of an exhausting game for Winnipeg in, in the last one.
11:42
And now you gotta face a, a team that will give you absolutely nothing in Vegas. Vegas defends really, really well. I, I, I kinda like this one to be low scoring, guys.
11:50
I feel like it could be tight, you know, playoff style. Mm. A lot of checking, so maybe the under six in this one for me. Jake, great stuff. He's Jay Kahn from SiriusXM.
11:58
And boy, that game between the Jets and the Bruins, it was like the old saying, I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out. He's Kelly Bidlin, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil.
12:06
It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:09
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:28
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12:36
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12:49
That's Z-Y-N.com. Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Scott Seidenberg back here in for Gil on A Numbers Game, alongside Kelly Bidlin here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:04
My thanks to Jay Kahn from SiriusXM, uh, co-host of The Point and The Fantasy Hockey Show, for joining us last segment. To recap, we had a, a double best bet, if you will. I like it.
13:13
And triple, 'cause Kelly's on it as well. [laughs] Uh, on the New Jersey Devils tonight, uh, minus 155 as they are home against the LA Kings. And that trend that I gave out, uh, going back to 2021, 34 wins, nine losses.
13:30
Yeah, that's pretty good. I'll go down with the ship with the Devils tonight. That's pretty good. [laughs] It, it, it's easier, Scott, if you just check in whenever I'm not betting the Devils. Yes.
13:37
[laughs] You know what I mean? That, that's... For the audience that knows me, that's obviously the case. Well, let's take a look at the futures market in the NFL.
13:45
It's time for the latest edition of Done or Not Done Yet. This is, like, Gil Alexander's fifth favorite game that we play on this, uh, show. [laughs] I love it. I don't know whether you like it.
13:54
So I, I like that I get to play with you. So we have, over at DraftKings now, we have favorites, odds-on favorites in every one of these markets, I believe. So I'm just gonna roll through these with you, Scott- Okay...
14:04
and simply ask you, is this race done or is it not done yet and still open? Okay, we're gonna start with MVP. We got Josh Allen minus 400 now over at DK. MVP, done or not done yet? MVP is done.
14:16
Uh, Josh Allen has secured the bag here. He has done enough to win this award. There was a time where you thought maybe Lamar Jackson was gonna be in the running for it. I'm not buying the Saquon Barkley MVP train.
14:27
Certainly, he's the Offensive Player of the Year, and if I'm jumping ahead, I apologize. But when it comes to the MVP, we see it kind of like in Major League Baseball where it's almost become two separate awards, right?
14:38
Yeah. You got the MVP and the Cy Young. The pitchers win the Cy Young, the batters get the MVP. In the NFL, the MVP is a quarterback award first and foremost.
14:47
Yes, there have been instances where non-quarterbacks have won, but this is a quarterback award, and I think that the voters who vote for these things would say, "Yeah, Saquon's had a great year.
14:58
Has he been that much better than Josh Allen to the point where we're gonna give him both the Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP award?" No, they'll split the market here.
15:07
Josh Allen is your MVP, Saquon Barkley your Offensive Player of the Year. A- I mean, come on, the guy threw and caught a touchdown pass to himself. [laughs] That's incredible.
15:15
Remember when Gisele S- remember when Gisele said, "My husband can't throw and catch it by himself"? Well, Josh Allen said, "Hold my beer," because he absolutely did that. He can. All right.
15:23
I'll, uh, I'll follow up on this one real quick. Let's just say, we don't, we don't wish injury on anybody- Mm-hmm... so let's say Josh Allen gets abducted by aliens tomorrow.
15:30
Uh, Barkley, Jackson, Goff, do you still think a quarterback would have a better chance of winning this than Saquon Barkley? I, I would. The problem is we don't have anybody stepping up right now. Mm-hmm.
15:43
When, when Patrick Mahomes was the top favorite to win the MVP, it made absolutely no sense. Yeah. And Jared Goff, even though he's arguably on the best team and he's having a good season, it's not an MVP season.
15:56
There's too many interceptions for Jared Goff. He's right now thrown 25 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. That's not good enough in my opinion.
16:04
Now, the reason why Lamar is so interesting is because he's thrown 29 touchdowns to three interceptions.
16:10
But there was a piece that was done, uh, I think it was by the NFL a couple of weeks ago, where if you go back and replay his three interceptions, none of them were on him.
16:19
They were deflected passes, drops by the wide receivers that wound up being in the hands of the defender, including one play that was like a simultaneous catch play- Mm-hmm...
16:28
that the defender actually ripped the ball away from the receiver, and they credit it as an interception. So you can make the argument that Lamar hasn't turned the football over at all this year.
16:37
So he would be the only one that I would say would be able to chase down Josh Allen. Yeah, I bet him, like, a week ago, a little bit longer on- Mm-hmm... just because of... I, I, I'm with you on Saquon.
16:46
I just don't see him getting there. Well, if, and if Josh Allen gets abducted by aliens, like you said. [laughs] You gotta factor that in, Scott.
16:51
[laughs] All right, Offensive Player of the Year, you kinda hinted at this, Saquon Barkley minus 600 now. Done or not done yet? I think it's done. Uh, he's gonna set the all-time single-season rushing record.
17:00
The Eagles are using him at w- a historic rate, by the way. Like, he's running more, and they're using him in different ways to run the football.
17:08
You realize that they're using him in motion to run, which is something that he didn't do with the New York Giants.
17:13
They're running more out of shotgun as well, and that's because of Jalen Hurts and the, and the scheme that they're running. They're the only team in the NFL that runs more than passes. Yep.
17:21
And so when you factor all that in, Saquon Barkley, when you set a record, it's hard to have anybody jump ahead of you. Yeah, I, I'm, th- these odds, I'm not even sure if they're short enough on him. Like mine- No...
17:33
is saying like I, I'm with you. I- Mm-hmm... this is probably a slam dunk. All right, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels -275, Bo Nix right behind him at two to one. Done or not done yet?
17:43
Not done yet, and not getting enough credit, Brock Bowers. Oh, I'm totally with you here. Okay. Oh, boy. You gotta explain to me... Now, first off, it's not... I think Bo Nix deserves it over Jayden Daniels. Okay.
17:55
Jayden Daniels for the first part of the season was tremendous, but then he got the rib injury.
17:59
Things haven't looked so good, and historically, we've seen Kliff Kingsbury offenses fall off of a cliff in the second half and fourth quarter parts of the season.
18:09
So I'm curious to see what happens with Washington in these final couple of games. But Bo Nix, since week five, is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. All the numbers play out that way.
18:18
Since that week five win over the Raiders, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he's covering just at a historic rate as well.
18:26
So Bo Nix, if I had to pick between him and Jayden Daniels, it would be Bo Nix. But Brock Bowers at 12 to one, even though he plays on a terrible team with no quarterback, he is setting records. I talk about- Yes...
18:39
Saquon Barkley setting records. Not just receptions for a tight end, receptions for a rookie. Yardage, all of the numbers.
18:47
Brock Bowers is the most valuable offensive player on a Raiders team that traded away Davante Adams, that has absolutely no running backs. Sinorice McCormack is now their starting running back.
18:59
When you factor that in, how is he not... Because if you, if you said right now, "Give me the o- give me the rookie MVP," meaning most valuable player to their team, Bo Nix, great season. Jayden Daniels, great season.
19:13
The only offense the Raiders have is Brock Bowers. Without him, they don't score. So I like Brock Bowers. I liked him at 10 to one. I love him at 12 to one. I love this.
19:22
I haven't bet it, but it is every week that goes by. Yeah. Everything that you're saying, when you watch this team, it is, this team is so bad, and you know what limited targets they...
19:32
I, I bring this up whenever we talk CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase too. We, you know they're gonna be targeted heavily. The defense- [laughs]... knows they're gonna be targeted heavily. Yes.
19:40
And they still have massive games. Yep. Everything you said, he is going to end up setting records and have arguably one of the best receiving, not, throughout tight end- Exactly...
19:49
or positions, one of the best receiving rookie years of all time. And I, uh, the odds- With Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, Desmond Ritter, like- Yeah, yeah, absolutely... you have to- With no offense...
20:00
it has to mean something. It has to. And, and, and the odds tell us, Scott, that for some reason winning now matters in Rookie of the Year more- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm... when it really hasn't before.
20:08
So I, I don't know, I still might get involved 'cause I'm with you. I, Brock Bowers has been so impressive. I think he should be much further, uh, along in the conversation.
20:15
But like I said, if I had to pick between Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels, it's Bo Nix. Okay, okay. That's interesting, 'cause yeah, I do th- I, I think I'd lean Jayden Daniels. I don't know as, uh, about as minus 275.
20:26
I don't know if I'd lean that far. All right, Defensive Player of the Year. T.J. Watt -220. Patrick Surtain coming up there. He's nine to one now. Uh, T.J. Watt done or not done yet for Defensive Player of the Year?
20:38
It's done. Uh, T.J. Watt's been tremendous. It, it's not just about the strip sacks and the fumble recoveries.
20:43
It's the impact that he has on the game, and if you look at the way the Steelers are playing defensively, they're one of the best defenses in the entire NFL, and a large part is due to T.J. Watt.
20:53
With all due respect to Surtain, Myles Garrett, uh, you know, his team's obviously not doing well, but he's still having a tremendous season. You can make...
21:00
I, I could, I could hear a case for Danielle Hunter, but it, it's not even close. T.J. Watt by far is the most impactful defensive player in the NFL. Yeah, it feels like kind of a not, not very competitive award- No...
21:11
this year either when we've had- Well, it's the same thing with Defensive Rookie of the Year. Jared Verse is running away with this award. So, right, yes. It's not even... Th- there's no, there's no market for it.
21:19
Like, this might as well be, like, just take it off the board because we know who's winning that award. Yeah, that's, uh, one I'm probably gonna get involved with.
21:26
I've b- I've been, I've been thinking about that for a couple weeks now 'cause you're, you're literally just talking about two Eagles defensive backs that are next there. Which will cancel each other out.
21:33
Th- well- And they've only come on as of late. Right. So it, I mean, you have... Yes, okay. We- And we're giving credit for the team defense success. Exactly. We wanna credit Vic Fangio for everything he's done.
21:42
Since the Eagles' bye, with all these wins they've stacked up in a row, they've been the best defense, especially their pass defense, number one in EPA and success rate since their bye.
21:51
But between Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, it's like, who, who has the more impact? Okay, you say it's Quinyon Mitchell, but I don't really know if I can measure that.
21:59
What I can measure is the amount of pressures, the amount of sacks, the amount of double teams that a guy like Jared Verse gets, and we'll see him here on primetime national television for the Rams.
22:10
I think he's the winner in this market. A- and the fact that the odds have come down, even better. Hey, ready to elevate your tailgates game? You have to try Sewell's Barbecue.
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22:41
The college football playoffs are right around the corner, and I have a pick for the national championship. Ooh, nice. I don't- I know who's gonna win. Oh, he's... Oh, Scott knows who's gonna win. Word.
22:53
And I think that because of the way that the bracket plays out, it got easier for this team that actually lost their conference championship game.
23:03
We'll talk to Pete Fu- Futak from College Football News coming up next here on The Numbers Game. I'm Scott Seidenberg. He's Kelly Biblin. It's VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:21
I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bidlin. This is a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Joining us now on the progressive guest line is Pete Fiutak from College Football News.
24:31
And Pete, before we get into the college football playoffs, we got Army-Navy coming up here this weekend, and we always say bet the unders in the Army-Navy game.
24:42
But I think the market is starting to buy in and adjust accordingly. When you look at this game, how do you see it playing out? Are you on the unders as well? I know you're not supposed to do this.
24:55
I know, you know, you're supposed to be analytical. You're supposed to take all the data here- [laughs]... that says you're right, that you have passing games. Both teams can throw it a little bit. They're gonna be...
25:04
There's gonna be a little more offense than usual. Army has the ability to potentially even cover the spread all by itself if it, if it goes off. So, uh, yeah, the going over makes a whole lot of sense.
25:16
This defies logic and reason. We know how it goes. [laughs] It's almost like an NFL game because they're, the, the, the, uh, the possessions are so limited.
25:24
There's only just a few, you know, times each each team gets it, 'cause they're gonna go on these nine-minute drives each. Uh, I think Army wins relatively easily.
25:33
Again, that kind of defies logic and reason as well because this rivalry kind of goes above and beyond that. Uh, but I am the never screw with a streak guy.
25:42
[laughs] If you're, if, if we're talking, I, I think it's something crazy like nine years that it's gone under or hasn't hit 39. Just if it goes over, tip your cap and move on.
25:55
But I think you go over on this until, uh, these, uh, uh, Military Academy versus Military Academy games go off. 'Cause this year they, against Air Force, they didn't. So I would still stick with the under.
26:06
And the game is in Landover. So in case people don't realize where the game is being played here, it is in Landover, Maryland this year.
26:13
So I guess a pseudo-home environment for Navy, although we, you know, both teams and both, uh, academies will be well represented.
26:21
Uh, when you look at these bowl games, Pete, not the college football playoffs, just the generic bowl games that we're gonna see being played starting here on the, uh, 17th, how do you handicap these games and how do you assess the teams from whether it's an opt out, uh, angle or just a motivational angle?
26:39
Yeah, first of all, it's College Football Playoff. There's no S. Ah. [laughs] Heaven forbid. You get the, you get, you get a- [laughs]... you get a stern email. It's like the Stanley Cup Final- No...
26:47
not the Stanley Cup Finals. Exactly, or the Open or something. [laughs] Or the Ohio State. It... Or otherwise you'll get an email or a text or something saying, "We prefer that it's..."
26:55
[laughs] I've been on the business end of one of those. Uh, it, it's, it's awful. This is, this bowl, I- I- I don't know how, other way to put it, but crudely, this bowl season is gonna suck so bad- [laughs]...
27:08
because they are just guys in uniforms. There's, uh, there's nobody left. I mean, 'cause everyone's in the playoff, it's gonna stay.
27:15
And even the playoff you've got guys, you know, who are, are kind of like, "Well, I'm gonna transfer after the season." And like Kelly, Kenny Dillingham of Arizona State's like, "Well, you know, don't play in this.
27:25
You don't wanna get hurt," you know? And it's the playoff, you know? What are you doing?
27:28
So the only way to kind of handicap this is one, just assume i- if you just go, keep going with the underdog all the way across the board, you're probably gonna be okay because we don't know what's coming out of that tunnel.
27:41
The second way to look at this is like if it's NFL pre-season- Hmm...
27:45
where if you can kind of figure out, okay, this coaching staff's gonna play its starters an extra quarter or something like that, then you kind of know how this works.
27:54
Especially right now, we're a little past it already, but o- over the first week, if you could've figured out that, you know what, this team's probably gonna lose a bunch of its players to opt outs, like Texas A&M's probably gonna lose half its team by the time this, these, this, this thing starts, and the line hasn't jumped yet.
28:11
To me, the easiest pick of this board, because what do we know? The teams, who do we know is gonna show up? Army versus Marshall. And it started off at, I think, seven and a half.
28:21
And then all of a sudden, it, people figured out, "Wait a minute, Marshall lost its coach. Marshall lost a bunch of its players. Everyone's kind of in a portal. And Army's Army. You know no one's opting out Army."
28:33
Mm-hmm. Uh, and so as is, even if it was a straight up game, I liked Army minus seven and a half. Now you're doing that and it jumped. What'd it do? I think it's now at 13 and a half last I checked. 15 and a half now.
28:43
Yeah. 15 and a half. Exactly. Wow. Uh, because again, Marshall doesn't have anybody left- Mm... and it's Army, and they're, you know, gonna be, you know, coming off a Navy where they're still kind of full force.
28:52
So, uh, so games like that you have to kind of figure out. The only other one on here so far, I mean, that really kind of looks like it might be sort of, uh, legitimate to the regular season is the Alamo Bowl.
29:03
Because for some crazy reason- [laughs]... uh, Coach Prime's guys are still playing. I mean, Prime's Do you believe that though, Pete? Do you think by the time we get there it's gonna happen? 'Cause I don't.
29:12
I don't believe it. How... Y- yeah. It, it's a, it's a little bit different when you are the coach's son and you're always- Mm-hmm... already have generational wealth.
29:22
And like remember, uh, when Andrew Luck kept playing college football when, you know, he didn't really need the money? Yep. The Mannings always played because they didn't, they stuck around because it was more fun.
29:32
They didn't need, you know, they weren't worried about their- You know, their, you know, how their future is gonna be.
29:37
I, I kind of think a little bit, but remember also that Deion Sanders' Jackson State teams with Shedeur, with Travis, they gagged twice at Jackson State.
29:47
You know, remember they got their doors blown off by South Carolina State in the Celebration Bowl a few years ago, and they lost a heartbreaker a couple years ago.
29:54
And so this is a chance for these guys to win a bowl game- Mm. Fair... which they've never done, you know? So there might be a little bit something to that.
30:01
And BYU, for the most part, uh, is gonna be more intact than most other teams. Yeah, Pete, I, I, I believe I caught something on Cam Ward, too, making it sound like he was gonna try to play.
30:11
I mean, do you think this is just special situations with these schools specifically this year, or is this a trend we could see continue if, with teams that are not in the playoff?
30:20
'Cause it's blowing my mind these guys would actually go out there and play in these games. Uh, maybe it's NIL money. Maybe there's a little extra part of the deal. Mm.
30:27
Maybe it's to showcase yourself to bump yourself up, uh, another five or 10 spots in the, uh, the NFL draft. But you're right. I mean, these guys shouldn't be playing at all.
30:36
It, it's, especially in this now, 'cause when you're...
30:38
We're really gonna see more than ever just how much of a, these are just exhibitions as opposed to, you know, anything truly meaningful in the world, especially when you've got a college football playoff that's right in the mix of all this that's gonna be so interesting.
30:52
Pete, let's talk college football playoffs. Uh, playoff. Excuse me. I don't wanna get the email. Yeah, no. Uh, you and I have talked before about the path to the championship and how- Yep...
31:01
perhaps winning your conference title game is not necessarily beneficial to you. Sure, we have, you get the bye and, and you're in the quarterfinal. That's cool, but the path sometimes can be easier.
31:13
I mean, I look at a program like Texas or I, I look at some other teams that ha- that have to play in that first round, and to me, it just seems like the path is wide open for those teams that didn't win their conference title.
31:24
I was gonna say, I thought you were g- I, I heard your, your initial thing. I was gonna guess you were gonna go with Penn State, and I was gonna have to chastise you about this. You're, so Texas is your call? Yes. Okay.
31:34
Uh, it, that's, they're not the... It's not a bad call because they've got the guys who... I mean, look, after all of this, it's gonna be Ohio State/Georgia probably- [laughs]... or Ohio State/Notre Dame.
31:44
I mean, Ohio State's the best team. It just is. And if it's not, that means they gagged. Um, so start with, you know, you know, who, who has the talent, but you're right.
31:53
I mean, part of it is, you know, look, who's the... Let... You know, we're all among friends here, and you're not Gil, so I'm not gonna get yelled at here for this.
32:00
[laughs] Bo- if you get Boise State, you know, of course that's, you want that. Yep. If you want, uh, Boise State, Arizona State, honestly Clemson, and to your point, can you get out of your first round?
32:11
Clemson, Texas is gonna wipe them up. Indiana's scary for Notre Dame. I, none of my Notre Dame people wanna believe me on this 'cause Notre Dame is talented enough to actually get to the national championship.
32:21
I don't think they can win it. Uh, but India- these teams with tempo. I'm not counting out SMU. Uh, I don't think- Ooh... they're that great.
32:29
I don't think they really deserve to be in this, but neither did Alabama- [laughs]... so someone had to be in. Uh, but
32:35
I, SMU, because of the way they play and the tempo against Penn State, because of Indiana and the way they play, those are dangerous games. We're on the right day, I think they can win.
32:43
I don't think Clemson can beat Texas. So to your point, you gotta be in it to win it. You gotta keep moving. So at least Texas is gonna survive and advance, I think, in this.
32:50
And then Texas over Arizona State, and then they match up with Oregon in the semis, or maybe it's Ohio State in the semis. And it- But you're, you're missing the part of this where it's Texas, so it's gonna blow it.
33:01
Yeah. [laughs] Um, so it- That's true.
33:03
Although I will say, if Georgia gets to face SMU in a semifinal game, I mean, I don't care who's at quarterback for Georgia, [laughs] it's gonna be, uh, a Georgia National Championship picture.
33:13
Pete, appreciate the time and the conversation. Good luck with your Army-Navy bets this weekend. Have a good one, guys. Have a nice one. There he is, Pete Fiutak from College Football News.
33:21
And, you know, it's hard to go against the trends, Kelly, of betting an Army-Navy under because, like, that's the first way you wanna look. It, it's 15 and one, right? Service Academy unders- I think that's what it is...
33:32
is where you wanna look. But I will say, and Pete did mention it, these two teams this year are playing differently than they have in the past.
33:40
Specifically Army, they have a passing game, and the number just might be low enough to think, "Ooh, this year could go over." That was my Tony Romo impression. Uh, so those are what we've thought for the past 16 years.
33:53
Yeah. [laughs] It's so low. How can it not go over? He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil. Best bets coming up next right here on A Numbers Game on VSiN.
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34:18
[upbeat music] Hey, stay tuned because after A Numbers Game, it's Money Moves with Stormy Buntin Tony and Matt Brown coming up at noon Eastern. And of course, they will preview Thursday night football coming up tonight.
34:32
Then make sure you stick around for Prop Points with John Hanson at 2:00 PM, followed by Make It Rain with Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00, all coming up next here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:44
I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bidlin here on A Numbers Game. And it's time to get to the best bets, Kelly, and best bets are brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN.
34:56
Let's take a look at Thursday night football for tonight, and let's focus in on the tight end, George Kittle, for the San Francisco 49ers. Gave you some stats earlier, and I'll repeat it here again.
35:06
George Kittle, plus 250 receiving yards over expected end, plus nine-and-a-half receptions over expected. That's fourth most and sixth most in the NFL this year.
35:17
And his plus 134 yards after catch over expected is the most amongst tight ends in the NFL.
35:26
We know he's the primary red zone target for Brock Purdy and this offense, getting 27.7% of the 49ers red zone targets, leading the league with 113 yards and eight touchdowns In the red zone, I like George Kittle to go over 59 and a half receiving yards.
35:45
And this one is a little fun. Colby Parkinson over eight and a half receiving yards. Who? Well, let's talk about one of the backup-to-backup wide receivers for the Los Angeles Rams.
35:58
Matthew Stafford this year, in this Rams offense, is targeting tight alignment receivers at the third-highest rate in the NFL. All this information courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats.
36:10
It's also Matthew Stafford's highest rate of targeting these tight targets since 2016. So he's looking at the tight window target, the tight l- alignment targets. Now, what is that? Let me explain it to you.
36:23
When you watch football, you see the wide receivers, sometimes they line up out wide. They go towards the sideline. They're at the numbers, right? Where, the little numbers you see on the field.
36:31
Other times, they're in the slot, so they're in between, like, where the tight end lines up and where the receiver goes out wide.
36:37
And then, as you will watch tonight with the Rams, they line up real bunched up close to the line of scrimmage. That is tight alignment.
36:45
Well, Matthew Stafford is targeting those wide receivers out of tight alignment, and the player that runs the most routes on the Rams in the tight align- alignment is Colby Parkinson, with 140 routes run out of that alignment.
37:00
Stafford will look to him tonight, and I think all he needs, Kelly, is one catch to go over this prop, because as you detailed for us, looking at his game logs, if you have it handy for you,
37:11
all it takes is one catch for Colby Parkinson, 'cause that's what he's done each of the last four games for the Rams. Four straight games, yeah. One catch, uh, one target in all those, except for the Eagles.
37:22
He got two targets in that game. But yeah, like you said, over eight and a half. Over eight and a half, so you're g- looking good there. Um, and you got one, one on the ice tonight too? Yeah.
37:29
I do have one on the ice tonight. It is the New Jersey Devils on the money line. It's minus 155. They're against the Kings, who are a very talented team, uh, but they're on a road trip here.
37:38
They played the Islanders recently, and they've won a bunch of games in a row, whereas the Devils have lost two straight. But the Devils, in their loss against Toronto the other night, was a crushing defeat.
37:48
They absolutely dominated the game. They had almost 40 shots on goal. They limited Toronto to really nothing offensively.
37:56
It was a fluke short-handed goal in the third period after the Devils almost got a power play goal. There was a whole bunch up in front of the net, and then the puck squeaked out.
38:05
Guy puck- shot it down the ice, and it winds up bouncing right in front of a Toronto player, who shoots it past Jacob Markstrom. Very unlucky to tie the game there from, from a Devils perspective.
38:14
And then the Devils dominate the overtime period, because in three-on-three overtime, it's all about possession.
38:19
They had possession for the entire period until they gave it away, and Auston Matthews scored on the breakaway because he's one of the greatest players in the world.
38:27
So Devils are coming off a hard-fought loss, and I think they respond tonight against the LA Kings. And then I looked up this trend, Kelly, which is fascinating. I went back to the 2021 season.
38:38
So the past couple years, I like to go post-COVID 'cause- Yeah... things changed- Yeah... and whatnot.
38:42
But since 2021, if you're coming off of a loss where you had more than 35 shots on goal in your previous game that you lost and your opponent in that game had under 20 shots on goal, which means it was a dominant performance from you.
38:58
You had over 35 shots, your opponent had less than 20, but you somehow lost that game. How do you respond the following game? How about 34 wins and nine losses? Yeah, that's pretty good. That's 79.1%.
39:13
I like that percentage. No, they're just making sure in that next game that they shoot the puck past the goalie- Exactly... and not into him. That's, it- it's the key to winning hockey games.
39:20
Ex- That's, that's what I hear, Scott. Exactly. So Devils minus 155 my next best bet. What about you, Kelly? I like it. Yeah. Mine's okay. A little unorganized if you're watching at home. I'm sorry.
39:29
I did add some, some NFL plays, uh, today. I don't know about you, Scott, but I think I've got more NFL bets this week than I've had in, like, six weeks. Oh, just- Like, it has been- Just wait till tomorrow's show.
39:38
Okay, good. Because- Because- It's been sparse for me recently... I got... I, I, I, I bet you I- I'm curious who has more props this week, myself or John Hanson coming up later on tonight- [laughs]...
39:46
'cause I've been all over this board. Okay. Well, [laughs] we'll have to see then. [laughs] All right. For me tonight, Rams in a teaser. Uh, paired them with the Vikings early in the week. That is not on the board.
39:55
Paired them with the Commanders, uh, as well a couple days ago. I a- that's my favorite one is Rams, Commanders, six-point teaser if you're looking to play. I also added this morning Bucs plus three.
40:06
Herbert missing practice yesterday. Doesn't sound like that ankle is all that healthy, uh, for the Chargers, so do like the Bucs catching points this week.
40:13
Wanted to see what the Chargers' injuries were gonna look like before making that bet, but did put that, uh, into the account this morning. Bucs plus three.
40:20
Other one I do not have on here, we talked about it earlier, A.J. Brown I bet over 75 and a half receiving yards yesterday. [laughs] It's just the squeaky wheel, man. We prob- we've said it- Oh, yeah...
40:30
I don't know how many times on the show, but it is, it is some... I'm just blind- basically blindly betting at this point, uh, especially with guys like of A.J. Brown's caliber. He is so good.
40:38
He, those deep balls, uh, he can e- that can be three catches. He doesn't even need to be fed that much. He can take one d- uh, long for a touchdown. Uh, Bills, Lions. I got two bets.
40:47
Over, uh, over in that game got early in the week at 52 and a half. That has gone up. I'm laying two and a half with the Lions. You can get a better number than that right now, uh, than what I got.
40:56
Do think it's gonna be... I, I, I know B- Bills are getting healthier. We'll talk more about this game tomorrow.
41:01
I, I still think it's a tough, tough ask for that Bills team, um, g- after a big game last week to head in Detroit, uh, and try to steal one there as well. Broncos laid the points with earlier in the week as well.
41:12
Colts heading into Denver this week, and massive game for AFC playoff picture. Do think the Broncos are in a little better spot, though, like them laying the points in that game.
41:20
And then Packers moneyline I played on the opener as well. I know we talked a little bit about that. Uh, big game for the NFC West. And there's Zach Cohen's best bets as he joined us earlier on the program.
41:31
He likes the Raptors plus 10 and a half tonight with Duante Murray over 36 and a half points, rebounds, and assists. And tonight for Thursday Night Football, the 49ers on the money line.
41:41
Best bets are brought to you by G Bank, the official bank of VSiN. And there's some more best bets from Jake Hon. Devils money line with, with myself. Sharks on the money line, get that plus money price.
41:51
And some props for tonight, Dylan Holloway over two and a half shots on goal. Capitals to win the Stanley Cup as a futures bet at 35 to 1. If you're serious about sports betting, you need the G Bank Visa signature card.
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42:34
Scott Seidenberg in for Gil alongside Kelly Biblin here on A Numbers Game. And you know something? I think I have a bonus best bet for you, Kelly. Oh.
42:42
A- and, and you picked the Packers on the money line as one of your, uh, best bets. Packers play the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, where they are three-point favorites over Seattle.
42:51
If that is the case, and your Packers beat the Seahawks- Yep... well, then I like this best bet even more, and it's the Rams to win the NFC West Division at plus 160.
43:04
Rams are certainly live dogs tonight, and a win tonight over the 49ers, of course, helps their cause. If they lose tonight, yeah, it gets a little trickier. But let's look at the schedule for the Rams moving forward.
43:15
What, what are the full division odds? Do you have them in front of you? The full division odds right now, Seahawks minus 120, Rams plus 160, Cardinals plus 900, 49ers 18 to one. Okay. All right.
43:26
But let's take a look at the Rams' schedule real quick. So after this game against the 49ers, they then play the Jets, Cardinals, and wrap up the season with the Seahawks.
43:34
Keep in mind, they already beat the Seahawks earlier in the year, so they right now have the tiebreak.
43:39
So if it gets down to that final game of the season, and they are just one game behind Seattle, a win over Seattle in the final game of the regular season would win the division for the Rams. Yeah, I like it.
43:53
I, I mean, if you're looking at Rams tonight, or looking at Rams tonight or Packers this weekend, or both- Mm-hmm... I think this bet, that bet makes a lot of sense.
44:02
B- I mean, biggest point is, I w- I was wondering what the number's gonna be, and then we're looking at the schedules, right? Biggest thing is that game's at home, right? Yes.
44:08
Rams get the Seahawks at home, week 18, so you'd be rolling into that g- that game with a nice, very nice money line price.
44:15
And if Seattle doesn't lose against the Packers, well, they play the Vikings next week, which is a tough opponent. Then they have to go to the Bears and have the Rams on that final game of the season.
44:25
But right now, Seattle eight and five, ahead of the division. Rams, seven and six, right there on their heels. All they gotta do is stay within one game heading into that final game of the season.
44:35
And because they're at home, Kelly, it ain't gonna be plus 160- Mm-hmm... on the Rams- Yep... in that game. We'll be back again tomorrow, get you ready for the rest of the NFL week 15 slate.
44:44
Don't forget, we got coming up next, Stormy and Matt Brown. I'm Scott Steinberg in for Gil. He is Kelly Pidlin. This is the Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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