Search
Login
Sign Up
Dec 13, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 13, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 13, 2024 | Hour 1
00:00
44:58
1×
Transcript
0:00
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy. Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers.
0:10
Their fee is free unless they win. For more information, go to forthepeople.com/bestbets or dial #LAW, #529 from your cellphone. That's F-O-R-T-H-E-people.com/bestbets. This is a paid advertisement.
0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:36
Coming to you from the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las Vegas, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Vidlin. This is a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
0:46
Week 15 of the NFL season got off to an exciting start. Thrilling. [laughs] And I s- I say that, you know, facetiously. A 12-6- Oh, man... win for the Rams over the 49ers.
0:57
Congratulations to all of those who cashed the no touchdown score at 225 to one at Circa Sports Book. I don't know a single winner, though. I, I haven't seen Jeff Benson tweet anything out about a winner.
1:10
Have you seen anybody tweet- No-... a winner? I, I have not. No? I don't even know what I would've guessed the odds on that were. 200- 225 to one. All right...
1:15
it's, uh, yeah, it was less at other sports books, but Jeff had tweeted out that it was, uh, 225 to one here at Circa for the no touchdown score last night.
1:23
And apologies for all of you that were relying on any players in week one of your fantasy playoffs. I, for one, went against Cooper Kupp, who put up a big zero, so I have a big smile on my face this morning.
1:33
[laughs] But another reason is because our best bets cashed last night. We gave out Colby Parkinson over eight and a half receiving yards. He finished with two catches for 21 yards.
1:46
That's the second most receiving yards on the Rams last night. [laughs] I, I, I, I was looking for him on the box score today. I'm like, "Where's he at?" I'm like, "Oh, because- All the way at the top...
1:54
I went too far down, Scott. Yeah, I went too far down." All the way at the top. Yeah, Puka led the way with the, uh, 97 yards, but Colby Parkinson was the second leading receiver on the Rams with [laughs] 21 yards.
2:05
And wh- when did he get his first catch? Was it the fourth quarter? Yeah, it was one-- But remember, when we handicapped this, we talked about how in each of the last four games, he had only one reception. Yep.
2:14
But each of those four games, he had gone over the eight and a half yards. His one catch that he had on a designed the play action rollout went for seven yards.
2:23
And Scott texted me that last night, I'm like, "Yeah, this is gonna turn her off." [laughs] I said, "This is such a bad beat.
2:27
We lost by one and a half yards," but then he got the catch on the crucial possession at the end of the game to get a first down and secure the victory for the Rams.
2:35
I found myself questioning a lot of things last night about both teams and their play calling. Again, no touchdowns were scored.
2:42
Yes, it was wet and rainy, but the conditions really weren't that bad that the offenses should've, should've been this inept last night. Brock Purdy certainly had a bad performance.
2:53
I wondered if it was either the familiarity between both of these teams and both of these coaches, or the fact that on a short week of preparation, the game plan was simplified.
3:02
And I think it's a combination of both, and it's something that we really should be focusing in on when we have these match-ups as we progress throughout the NFL season and eventually into the post-season, is familiarity between coaching staffs and familiarity between teams.
3:17
Yeah, it's, uh, it's interesting you bring that up, 'cause I thought the, I thought the first half, the teams looked like... I thought it was pretty apparent that they looked like the weather was worse, way- Mm...
3:27
worse than they expected, right? It maybe wasn't terrible, but it was worse than they expected, and they were having trouble dealing with that.
3:33
Still amazes me today in the, in, in today's NFL that with all the communication equipment they have, with all the equipment they have on standby, like cleats and gloves and everything, you sometimes still just need a halftime to reset- Yeah...
3:44
'cause it was... I mean, Stafford, Stafford's first half, four for, four of 12 for 23 yards. Second half, 12 of 15 for 137. Much better. So yeah, much better, and conditions got better. Like you're talking about- Mm...
3:55
weather wasn't nearly as bad in the second half. For the 49ers, we cashed the George Kittle receiving yards over 59 and a half, barely. In one of the bets that I felt should've never been a sweat, because- Yeah...
4:06
[laughs] he had a monster first half, and then all of a sudden we were waiting for one catch just to get him over, which he did. He finished with 61 yards last night for the 49ers.
4:15
Speaking of the 49ers, the six points that they scored, the second lowest under Kyle Shanahan. The first lowest, three points in his very first game as a head coach. Wow, that's a good note.
4:27
So this is the lowest amount of points that they have scored since his very first game as a head coach, and I think we all can just accept that the season is gone. It is over now for the San Francisco 49ers.
4:39
They will regroup and come back stronger in 2025. But for the Los Angeles Rams, everything is right in front of them. Yesterday we talked about their odds to win the NFC West. It was at plus 160.
4:50
Well, after the win last night, they are now minus 115, which makes a lot of sense. Because as we mentioned yesterday, they are in control of their own path to win this division.
5:01
Because they have that win over the Seahawks, all they have to do is go into that final week with one loss behind Seattle, and if they win that game, it's an NFC West Championship game.
5:12
If Seattle wins, they're division champs. If the Rams win, they are division champs. So everything ahead of the Rams right now and their schedule, let's just be honest here.
5:22
The remaining games for LA, the Jets and Cardinals, I'm, I'm excluding that Seattle game, the final game of the season. Mm. But they're favor- they're gonna be favored in both games- Yeah... Jets and Cardinals.
5:32
And then the Seahawks, they're dogs coming up on Sunday night against the Packers, and then they'll be home underdogs against the Vikings next week before going to the Bears for an, a get right game possibly, even though the Bears could still be fighting, uh, just a little pride at the end of the season, before facing the Rams.
5:51
There is a great chance for that game, the final game of the regular season, to actually not be for the NFC West title if the, if- The Seahawks lose to both the Packers and the Vikings.
6:02
Yeah, that's, uh, just ch- checking lines real quick for next week. So you got Seahawks catching two and a half on the look-ahead against Minnesota. Mm-hmm.
6:09
Rams, Jets I do not see versus- I mean, the Jets take money every week, but we know it's just ridiculous. Like, they're, they've been favored in nine games this year- Right. Yeah... for some reason. I know, right?
6:18
[laughs] It, it's, it's just every week. Ram- Rams, Rams three point favorites, two and a half, three- Yeah... uh, on the road against the Jets. And that, and that makes a lot of sense. Mm-hmm.
6:24
And we're gonna be joined by Steve Fezzik, two-time SuperContest winner, professional bettor, coming up in our second hour, and I'm gonna ask him about these future lines.
6:31
As he always does with Gil, he gives out some plays for the upcoming weeks. Yep. And we know that the Jets take money, because they have all season. I've been watching the Jets... I'm a Jets fan.
6:40
I've been watching them take money all season, and it makes absolutely no sense why they flip from short dogs to short favorites, and yet they keep on losing these games.
6:49
So I'm curious, if we wait on the Rams-Jets game, do we actually get a better line on the Rams? Mm-hmm. I'll ask that of Steve Fezzik coming up a little later on in the program.
6:59
Once again, I'm Scott Seidenberg alongside Kelly Bidlin, in for Gil here on A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. You can hit me up on Twitter @scottsonair.
7:08
Uh, we'll get into some, uh, soccer coming up a little later on in the program as well. We get- Paul Carr on a heater, man. Yeah, he's, uh, k- killed Champions League this week. We're gonna bring him on.
7:16
We'll talk Premier League with him, and then like you said, we got Steve, uh, joining us in the second hour. Uh, I did wanna ask you one question. These, these things get lost with a, with a team that wins. Mm-hmm.
7:26
What do you feel about McVay and his... I mean, we all know McVay loves field goals. Yeah.
7:30
But, oh boy, I think almo- I think every one of those fourth downs that they settled for a field goal- They could've gone for it... last night, I woulda gone for it. Yeah. Th- well, you also have to...
7:39
Whenever you talk about fourth down plays and aggression and should you go for it on fourth downs, you have to look at the third down plays as well. Yep.
7:46
Because what's so important, and people forget this, if your strategy, like Dan Campbell, is to go for it on fourth and short all the time, your third down play calling is different.
7:54
So, uh, Ben Johnson, for the Lions, knows, "Hey, I can call a certain play on third down, because if we're within one to two yards, we're gonna go for it on fourth down." McVay's calling the game.
8:04
I don't know how he's calling the game. Last night it didn't look like the Rams. It just didn't. Mm-hmm. And, and that's why I question, was it a short week of preparation?
8:11
But I gave out the numbers yesterday, and I'll repeat them again, and I'll update it now with the ATS win for the Rams last night, but Sean McVay on short rest, 15-6-1 against the spread. He thrives on short rest.
8:24
So it can't just be a dumbed down play calling sheet or, or, you know, uh, just a simplified game plan because of the short week.
8:33
Maybe it was because of how familiar him and Kyle Shanahan are with each other's playbooks and the play calling style. It could have been the, you know, maybe they just saw something within the- That's a good point.
8:43
Yeah. They saw something within the defensive line of the 49ers, and they said, "Hey, we're gonna be able to run on this team all game. So why... Let, let's just not expose ourselves to any mistakes.
8:53
We don't want Stafford throwing an interception," because the worst thing you can do in a game that you feel you have control in is up the variables. Mm. Right?
9:03
Up the opportunity for you to allow the other team back in the game.
9:07
I think Sean McVay knew, looking at that 49ers team last night, that they were gonna win the game, and that they could be in control the entire game, and the worst thing they could do is h- have Stafford throw an interception, turn the football over, and give the 49ers some life.
9:20
If they just ran the ball, ran the ball, and ran the ball, they were gonna be able to move it down field. Unfortunately, they settled for field goals- Yeah...
9:27
but it didn't matter last night, because Brock Purdy was, was not good. They, uh, uh, the, the Niners needed the rain to continue apparently- [laughs]...
9:33
'cause they, they looked like the better team when it was pouring out there. As soon as it stopped, it completely flipped. Absolutely. So, uh, that kicked off week 15 of the NFL season.
9:42
We got a full slate of games coming up on Sunday, and then a double header on Monday Night Football. So I wanted to quickly look at the market rundown and see if, where we've had some movement from Thursday into Friday.
9:54
Obviously, more injury reports come out on Thursday, practice situations get clarified.
9:58
I know for the Bucs, Bucky Irving did not practice once again, which I- I don't think that they do the same type of, uh, what's the good word I'm looking for? Chicanery- [laughs] That's a good one, yeah...
10:08
that, that they did last week when Bucky Irving, uh, w- did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, practiced on Friday, and then they said, "You know what? He's gonna be good to go." What'd he get?
10:18
Three carries for five yards- Right. Yeah... and he didn't play the rest of the game. So I don't think they pull that, again, the great word, chicanery- [laughs]... again, uh, with Todd Bowles and the Bucs.
10:28
I think that if Bucky Irving is on this injury report, he's not gonna play. Yeah, it's a little scary. Uh, Mike Evans, uh, probably a bigger deal out there for, for the Buccaneers.
10:36
I'm on that side this week, so that'll be a little bit of a sweat, but you know, Chargers, they, we, we, we got a banged up Justin Herbert it sounds like too, and I, I mean, I have a feeling he's gonna go.
10:45
He did practice yesterday, Scott. Mm-hmm. But that is... I mean, a, a hobbled quarterback is never great to have out there. So we'll see how much that ends up affecting him.
10:53
Yeah, we know George Pickens likely to miss another game. Uh, Kenneth Walker's gonna be interesting for Seattle.
10:58
Now, that game's Sunday night, so they have more time, but a- all indications were earlier in the week that this was gonna be Kenneth Walker returning- Yeah... for the Packers.
11:06
Now, does Zach Charbonnet having a phenomenal game last week kind of allow Seattle to take a step back with Kenneth Walker? I don't think they can afford to. I don't think so either. Yeah. I don't know about you.
11:15
I like how you put it, because I was certainly surprised that Charbonnet looked that good last week. I don't really think that's the same... That, that wasn't the same guy I've seen basically his whole career so far.
11:24
Um, and Kenneth Walker, uh, he's, I mean, I, I don't think we talk about the Seattle team enough, but he is an underader- under the radar good back in the NFL- Mm-hmm...
11:33
and, uh, having him healthy out there would be, be huge, I think. Oh, absolutely. So we're gonna continue to look at the NFL week 15 schedule.
11:40
I have some interesting trends when it comes to these games, including one that, Kelly, you're gonna say makes absolutely no sense. Right.
11:49
[laughs] Because it contradicts everything that you would think heading into a specific marquee matchup for this Sunday's games. I'll give you that trend coming up next. I'm Scott Seidenberg. He's Kelly Bidlin.
12:01
We're in for Gil. Well, I'm in for Gil. He's always here. It's A Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:10
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:28
Back here on A Numbers Game. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Bidlin here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:35
We got an exciting slate of games here for NFL week 15 Sunday, and a double header on Monday Night Football.
12:42
Kelly, out of all the match-ups that we have here on the week 15 schedule, which one are you looking forward to the most? Bills-Lions. And don't, don't... I was about to say, don't say, uh, Rams-49ers- [laughs]...
12:51
'cause we know that didn't live up to the hype. But what'd you... Bills-Lions, right? Oh, would have liked that. Yeah, Bills-Lions. I think that would make sense. It could be a Super Bowl preview.
12:59
I love, by the way, the, uh, memes that are going around the internet saying, "The Super Bowl America wants: Bills-Lions." Yeah. "The Super Bowl America's gonna get: Chiefs-Eagles."
13:08
[laughs] That is pretty good, actually. Yeah. 'Cause it's, it's what's gonna happen. We all want to s- This match-up on Sunday should be the Super Bowl.
13:16
W- I think America would love to see these two teams battle in the Super Bowl. But it is a bad situation for the Buffalo Bills to be in. Let's just be honest, okay?
13:27
They come into this game after an absolute shoot-out with the Rams. Not only do they come in after their defense was on the field for however many plays, over 40 points allowed,
13:38
but the Lions have a significant rest advantage after being on the bye. Yep. Naturally, you would think this is a bad spot for the Buffalo Bills. But I'm gonna give you a trend that says otherwise.
13:51
Speaking of trends, our buddy Steve Makinen up on vsin.com has a ton of trends for week 15 as well, and if you wanna be a smarter bettor, start with smarter insights.
14:00
A VSiN Pro subscription delivers the kind of actionable content that gives you the betting edge.
14:05
Right now, you can check out articles like Greg Peterson's college basketball best bets, Zachary Cone's on the UNC win total, Nigel Seeley's EPL picks, and later today you can check out weekend horse racing picks from Ed Sehon and our friends at First Bet, plus Adam Burkes' NFL player props.
14:22
To get all access to all the articles on vsin.com, right now you can sign up for as little as 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. So I mentioned how the Bills are in this terrible situation.
14:35
Huge rest advantage for the Lions. The Bills defense on the field for so long, they gave up 40 points. Well, I did a little trend research of my own, Kelly, and this is what I found.
14:47
I start with the year 2012, because that's the year that really things changed in the NFL. New CBA, new schedule, new rules. Like, 2012 was pretty much a standard year when it comes to trends.
14:58
So I know a lot of people give out trends that go back to 1990, or go back to maybe the last 10 years or so, but really 2012 is, like, the marquee date, the marquee year for NFL trends.
15:09
Because as I mentioned, the rules changed, byes changed, uh, see- the practice, everything changed in 2012. So I went back to that year and I said, "If you allowed f- over 40 points to your previous opponent,
15:23
now you go on the road and you are at a rest disadvantage," which is exactly the scenario that the Bills are in. You would think that that would be bad for the Buffalo Bills.
15:33
But those road teams who had bad defensive performances the week before and are at a rest disadvantage, I'll say it again- Yep... 24 and six against the spread. [laughs] That is pretty crazy.
15:46
24 and six, covering by 4.8 points per game. The average line in those games, three and a half. So they're three-and-a-half-point dogs on average, and right now the Bills are two-and-a-half-point dogs against the Lions.
15:57
But those teams since 2012 are 24 and six against the spread. Now, I dug a little further into these games, these 30 games, and this is non-playoffs.
16:09
So I don't count playoffs because playoffs, obviously, you can have a, a rest disadvantage if you're playing one team that had the bye in the playoffs and you're coming off a wild card game in which you gave up 40.
16:18
I took the playoffs out of this. So this is regular season only. In those 30 games, I mentioned 24 and six ATS, the under, 20, nine and one. 20 unders, nine overs, one push.
16:33
That one surprises me less, 'cause if anything, you're talking about points the week before- See-... that might make the total go up. Yeah. That is what I'm... That's why Kelly's here, folks.
16:44
This is, this, this makes sense. Because first off, you just said it, lot of points the week before, so that would lead to higher totals.
16:52
And right now, if we look at this game, we're seeing a total between the Lions and the Bills that is 54 and a half. Mm-hmm. 54 and a half. That's just absurd.
17:05
I understand more scoring in the NFL with the kickoff rules and whatnot. 54 and a half is dumb, okay? Right off the bat, I wanna go under 54 and a half. But
17:15
that's obviously an inflated line because of both of these offenses, and we just saw the Bills give up over 40 points a week ago.
17:22
But when I dug deeper into these games, I saw that the opponents for the road team that's at a rest disadvantage are actually only scoring 20 points per game. And now that makes me think a renewed focus on defense.
17:39
So think about this. You just gave up over 40 points a week ago. What's the coach gonna drill into you all week? Defense, defense, defense.
17:48
Especially now with a defensive-minded head coach in Sean McDermott, it's gonna be all about defense for the Buffalo Bills against this high-powered Ra- uh, Lions offense.
17:58
So I actually, I love the Buffalo Bills in this match-up. I think I love the under more. Now I'm gonna give you a little defensive trend here for the Bills. They play zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the NFL.
18:08
That's their base defense. They are in zone coverage. They've recorded 10 interceptions in zone coverage. That's also the fifth highest, fifth most in the NFL. Jared Goff this year has thrown 10 interceptions,
18:22
all of them against zone coverage. Now, this is nothing new for Jared Goff. Last year against zone coverage, he also threw double-digit interceptions. So if you wanna defend against Jared Goff, you play zone.
18:35
What do the Bills do? They play zone. So I think the Bills are gonna have a good defensive game plan here against Jared Goff and the Lions.
18:42
The trends speak to the rest disadvantage, meaning not a lot here, if, if, if anything nothing, with the 24 and six ATS numbers. But really those under numbers stand out to me with the opposing teams scoring 20.
18:55
So can I sell you on the under 54 and a half? Uh, you make great points, Scott Seidenberg, but I already bet the over, so [laughs] Wow. Heard about the over.
19:04
Kelly's putting together his same game parlays with Montgomery and Gibbs and- Well, so I will tell you, I will tell you, so I bet, I bet the side and total on this game as soon as it opened up. Mm-hmm.
19:14
I bet over 52 and a half. I, I just thought with both these teams how the offense had performing, that number was gonna go up throughout the week.
19:20
And by the way, when Steve Fezzik's in here next hour, he'll tell you, you bet the under 54 and a half. Mm. 'Cause you can always play back. You, right now you have an over 52. Yep. You can bet the under,
19:30
and you have a little middle. Two-point middle, yeah. But- Little two-point middle... but at some point the line gets too far away from you that you have to play back. Yeah.
19:37
I'm w- I'm wondering, the one I've been kind of thinking about all week is I do think side and total are a little correlated here. Mm.
19:43
Like, if you like the Lions, 'cause I bet the Lions, I actually think that probably more, means more of an under play is coming because they're gonna be able to, probably means they're gonna be able to re- uh, lean on the running game and their offensive line, push the Bills around, and they're just gonna try to keep Josh Allen on the sidelines as much as they can, taking the air out of the ball.
20:00
Uh, so I, that's kind of the way I'm looking at this game. I think if you like Buffalo, I think it's kind of reverse. If you like, like Buffalo- Hmm...
20:06
you're probably liking the over a little bit more, uh, just because you're thinking it's gonna be more of an up and down game on both sides of the ball.
20:12
So I don't know, this is gonna be a great game to watch play out, though. Um, updating some injuries on it 'cause this is pretty big. Both sides get a little healthier.
20:19
I think this has been, it made more of a big deal with Buffalo, that looks like Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman could be back. Uh, but even on the Detroit side, DJ Reader, he's questionable. Didn't play last week.
20:30
It looks like he's got a good chance to get back there this week. The same with Taylor Decker on the offensive line as well.
20:36
So, um, yeah, b- big injury, in- information to track here over the next couple days, but man, the marquee game of the week for sure. I r- I hope it's a Super Bowl preview. Me too. I, I, I really do.
20:46
And if you're interested, the Jared Goff interception market, you can get Jared Goff over a half an interception at plus 120. Hmm.
20:54
Well- That's attractive to me 'cause I just told you, 10 interceptions against zone coverage this year, and the Bill's defense, zone coverage. So.
21:01
Yeah, and if you, I mean, like, if you like the over, then you're gonna be thinking there's at least more pass attempts, right? [laughs] Than, than an average game.
21:09
The props market is going to be absolutely inflated in this game because of the high total at 54 and a half. So keep an eye on that.
21:17
Obviously, the numbers are gonna be much higher than what you would see on a typical week. But this is just such a big number when it comes to a total this year.
21:26
Almost, you know, it, it's like when you see these big numbers, the, the one thing I wanna do is go a- it's like my first instinct's to go against it. My first instinct when I see a 54 and a half is to go lean under.
21:36
My first instinct when I see the Ravens at 16 and a half point favorites is to lean under. So i, I mean, lean, uh, lean towards the Giants- Right, yeah... plus the 16 and a half. Although- That's a big number in the NFL.
21:46
I mean, that's just a huge number. The, these two offenses, though, [laughs] 32 points per game for Detroit. Buffalo, 29 and a half so far this year. Although there is something that you have to know about the Giants.
21:59
[laughs] Yesterday at their practice, they ran red zone. They practiced outside. [laughs] I saw this. Instead of being, instead of being in the bubble, they practiced outside, 30-degree weather, 18 mile per hour winds.
22:09
It's not gonna be 18 mile per hour winds during their game, but they wanted to practice in the elements. 17 plays, they went O for 17 on passing plays. [laughs] Tommy DeVito did not complete a single pass.
22:21
O of four versus air, which means no defenders.
22:24
O for 13 in one-on-one match-ups with defenders, and according to Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News, it was a combination of drops, overthrows, defensive plays, and two catches out of bounds.
22:35
O for 17 for Tommy Cutlets. You're te- telling me this, uh, Giants team isn't, uh, firing on all cylinders right now? Is that what you're trying to tell me, Scott? I believe you. Oh, boy.
22:44
I want nothing to do with that game, though. 16 and a half points, hope, uh, that's a lot in today's NFL. I have two props in that game, though. All right. So we're gonna have to get to that coming up.
22:52
But coming up next, Paul Carr's gonna give us the plays on the pitch. That's what they call the soccer field. You know that? That's right, yeah. Yeah. He's Kelly Biblin. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil.
23:00
This is A Numbers Game here on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
23:04
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
23:22
Back here on A Numbers Game, I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gil, alongside Kelly Biblin here on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
23:28
Paul Carr will join us in about 15 or so minutes from now to give us his best plays for the upcoming soccer weekend.
23:36
And I wanna remind you guys that if you are the type of player who's looking to get down $10,000 or more on an NFL line at the best price in the market, or perhaps you're looking to get your in-game play instantly accepted, introducing Sport Trade, the app that's going to change sports betting.
23:50
Minus 104 lines instead of the typical minus 110 instant in-game betting and a concierge player service, Sport Trade is perfect for those who want a premium betting experience.
23:59
Sport Trade is live in New Jersey, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, and Virginia. Download Sport Trade and use code VSiN to earn 10% cash back on each wager in your first week. Terms apply. You must be 21 years or older to play.
24:10
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. I talked about the Giants' ineptitude when it comes to their red zone practice yesterday, which is fascinating.
24:22
Again, O of 17 on red zone passes yesterday. Line right now, 16 and a half, the Ravens are laying at the New York Giants, total of 42 and a half. I, I like the under.
24:34
I lean towards the Giants, but I'm, I'm, I'm not gonna bet it because I just can't. Yeah. I can't trust it. But here's what I can trust: Derrick Henry
24:44
Kelly, I'm, I'm all over Derrick Henry props in this game, but specifically his longest rush prop. This is where I wanna focus in on. You can find his longest rush prop at 20 and a half yards.
24:57
Some- it might be more if it's juiced and people have bet into this market. [clears throat] Maybe me. Um, [laughs] but I'm not saying I move lines, Kelly.
25:06
[laughs] I'm just saying, like, uh, that, that, that there's been bets placed.
25:09
Um, but 20 and a half is, is a line that I'm seeing out there, and Derrick Henry this season has forced the third-most missed tackles in the NFL.
25:19
He's also gained the most yards after those missed tackles out of any running back in the NFL. He- He's tough to tackle. It makes sense. Yeah. It makes sense. He looks like he's tough to tackle. He is.
25:28
You know, Scott- I wouldn't stand in front of him. [laughs] The New York football Giants, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most yards in the NFL after missed tackles.
25:39
They're right around 12th or 13th in missed tackle rate, so it's not like they're one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL, but as it gets colder later in the year, motivation lacks.
25:50
I don't know how many guys are gonna wanna stand in front of Derrick Henry and take him down. But anyway, they allow the second-most yards in the NFL after missed tackles.
25:58
So I wanna look at Derrick Henry, not his overall rushing prop, which he'll probably still go over, but it's juiced because they're a 16-and-a-half-point favorite against a bad Giants team. But his longest rush.
26:10
He's had 29 carries this year of 10 or more yards. That's an average of 2.2 per game, a 12% rate, which means 12% of his carries go for double-digit yards. The Giants defense, meanwhile,
26:25
has allowed the third-most double-digit runs in the NFL, average of 4.15 10-yard runs per game, and a 14% rate of double-digit runs. So 14% of opponents' carries are going for double digits against the Giants.
26:42
And if you're asking, "Well, what's the game log look like? How many times has Derrick Henry gone over this number?" In 10 of 13 games this year- Wow... he has had a rush of over 20 yards.
26:52
In one game, he had a rush with 19 yards, so that would've been a bad beat for you. Yeah, yeah.
26:56
But let's say you got the prop at 19, I mean, that's 11 of 13 games this year, but still, 10 of 13 games he's going for 20 or more. I feel pretty good about Derrick Henry longest rush over 20 and a half yards.
27:07
Yeah, I like it. I, I always like, I always like kind of reading into it when we go through numbers like this, and it's like, you know what I took out of that, Scott? Man, these, uh, these Giants linebackers suck.
27:15
[laughs] Like, they must suck. Like, 'cause you talked- They have a really, they have a really good pass rush. Right. Yeah. They just can't defend the run.
27:21
I mean, 'cause you talked about the missed tackle rate- Mm-hmm... and all that, so it's... Okay, so it's getting cleaned up on the back end somewhere, but, uh, those initial tackles are not getting home. Yeah. Yeah.
27:30
A- and if you're interested, if you, if you're somebody that plays, like, defensive props, you could look at the Giants' secondary and look at their tackles.
27:36
Because if you think about it, who's gonna get the tackles when Derrick Henry- Right... breaks through the line? Yeah. It's not gonna be the defensive lineman, it's not Dexter Lawrence, it's not Brian Burns.
27:44
It's gonna be those guys in the secondary that are gonna have to clean up- Yeah... those missed tackles. Safety coming down. Yep.
27:49
So that could be a- an angle to look at if you are a pl- someone that plays defensive props at a sportsbook that does offer those tackle props. Do you ever get involved in the, with those?
27:58
I do get involved with sack props. Okay. All right. Because... And there was one that I played this year, actually, on Brian Burns. I rarely do. That's why I bring it up. I played one on Brian Burns of the Giants.
28:06
It was the game against Carolina, and to me it was like, you know, we talk about the revenge spots. This was a revenge spot for Brian Burns. Remember, Carolina didn't wanna- Right... give him the long-term contract.
28:15
They trade him to the Giants for nothing. The Giants pay him, and it was the second play of the game he got a sack on Bryce Young. [laughs] So it w- See what you're feeling.
28:22
[laughs] And, and the line was only, it was over a quarter of a sack. It wasn't even over a half a sack. So all he had to do was get a half a sack, and you would cash that bet.
28:30
And people are asking if you don't know what a half a sack is. It's like if you and your teammate meet at the quarterback, like, you're, you're both gonna get credited for a half a sack there.
28:38
So, uh, that happened on the second play of the game. So that, I do get involved in sack props, not so much tackles props. 'Cause you can get a bad beat on tackles props, I think. Oh, totally.
28:46
I'm trying to look up right now, too. I, I don't see any of the Giants safeties listed, uh, under the tackles props for [laughs] a track. It's just so bad.
28:53
The p- the b- sportsbooks probably getting cleaned up on these props.
28:56
[laughs] Uh, the other prop I like in this game, sticking with the Ravens rushing attack, kind of a similar theme, but their backup running back, Justice Hill. Uh, his prop, it was at 12 and a half yards.
29:06
It has gone up to 14 and a half yards. I still like it at 14 and a half yards. If you look at the amount of carries he gets this year, the bulk of his yardage comes from when the Ravens are leading.
29:16
They're 16-and-a-half point favorites in this game. They're going to be leading.
29:21
And so when Derrick Henry already has 200 yards and two touchdowns against the New York Giants, Justice Hill will get some carries there in the second half. So I like Justice Hill over 14 and a half rushing yards.
29:32
Like it. I like it. Co-sign? Yeah. All right. We co-sign on that. But that was, that was when we were, we were talking about a little bit during the break.
29:36
Man, it feels like Justice Hill gets way more run than he actually does. Well, 'cause he does catch the football a lot. Right. Yeah.
29:41
But again, in a game where they're 16-and-a-half-point favorites, I don't ca- he's not gonna get a lot of receiving yards. Mm-hmm.
29:47
I don't think he's gonna be in there on passing situations, 'cause we expect the Ravens to dominate the Giants in this game. Yeah.
29:53
So you know what's interesting about this game as well, is you look at the situation that the Ravens are in coming off their bye as an away favorite, and that's normally been a historic trend that people talk about, away favorites after the bye.
30:07
So I went and I looked up since 2012, again, we go back to that year, how, how do these teams do? Well, it's actually not that great. It's not a good ATS number ag- against, uh, as an away favorite.
30:20
It's not great as a double-digit favorite. Two and four ATS as a double-digit road favorite after the bye. What's interesting, though, is if you look at the unders for these big favorites after byes,
30:36
five and one to the under. If you look at overall away favorites after a bye, 16 and nine to the under. And what if those teams are coming off of a loss, like the Ravens are?
30:49
Well, you would think, again, kind of like I mentioned with the Buffalo Bills last segment, the defensive intensity picks up. Mm-hmm. 23 and 10 to the under, with the opponent scoring an average of 16 points per game.
31:01
Now, the Giants team total is listed at 12 and a half in this game. Th- this, and it also isn't la- it's not a situation where the Ravens are... Like, the Ravens have something to play for still too. Exactly. You know?
31:10
It's- Exactly... it's not like they're locked into a playoff spot. I ca- I don't think I can bet the Giants team total under because it's so low.
31:17
Like, you can almost, you could backdoor your way into scoring 13 points in the NFL. R- right, yes, absolutely. But I do like the under 42 and a half in this game, because I don't trust the Giants to score.
31:25
Yeah, I do too. And I think the Ravens are just gonna run, run, run, run, run. And so I could see this being, like, one of those, h- I mean, would it surprise you if this was a 20- 20- 27-6 final? No, not at all.
31:37
Not at all. Even 31-10? Well, that would be borderline cashing the over, 'cause it's 42 and a half. I don't wanna go 41. But I, I, I lean towards the under, because one team's gonna score, the other team's not.
31:49
So under 42 and a half between the Ravens and the Giants.
31:53
You know, there's another away favorite that's coming off of the bye, and they're actually a pretty big favorite as well, and that's the Washington Commanders, who are on the road at the New Orleans Saints.
32:03
And this line has gone up with the quarterback news. It's gonna be Jake Haener at quarterback, not Derek Carr. I know there are conflicting reports.
32:10
I think ESPN said, "If Carr can't go," but NFL Media are reporting that it will be Jake Haener making his first career start in this game.
32:18
Washington moves from a six and a half point favorite to a seven and a half point favorite, which I, it, it makes me believe that obviously part of that six and a half was Derek Carr not playing.
32:29
'Cause Derek Carr is not, it's not one point to the line. It's a lot more than one point movement on the line for Derek Carr not playing in this game. But I do think that- Yeah...
32:38
you know, once it gets officially announced, obviously more money comes in on Washington. It moves it an extra point from six and a half to seven and a half.
32:46
Are you concerned laying it this many points with Washington on the road? Oh, man, great question. I, I, you tied them into a teaser with the Rams from last night, but I, I love them as a teaser leg this week.
32:57
Oh, from seven and a half down to one and a half, for sure. Yeah, yeah. Laying the full seven and a half, it's a great question. It's definitely still the pl- it's definitely still the side I would lean to.
33:05
Might end up being a, a Circa Millions play for me this week- Hmm... just 'cause of a kind of l- lack of- Well, contest line, contest line, though, is gonna be less, actually. Seven and a half. It is seven and a half.
33:13
Oh, it is seven and a half? Okay. Yeah, it came out yesterday. Yeah, I wish it was seven. Well, the Westgate had six and a half in their Super Contest. Oh, really? 'Cause their, their lines come out a day earlier.
33:19
Oh, wow, okay. So it's in, yeah, uh, they come out on Wednesday, Circa comes out on Thursday. So obviously check your contest lines. I, but to answer your question, no, I'm not overly concerned with this guy.
33:28
I, I think this Commanders team has, has come back down a, a little bit more towards league average- Mm-hmm... here over the past few weeks.
33:34
But this Saints team, without Derek Carr, with the injuries that they have, I think you're talking about a bottom five team in the NFL right now. Oh, for sure.
33:41
A- and we saw that in the games where Spencer Rattler started. Right. Now, Haener's better than Rattler, but we still see the offense is not the same without Derek Carr.
33:48
And yes, I do agree, seven and a half going down to one and a half on the six-point teaser. Maybe pair it up with the, uh, Buffalo Bills up from two and a half to eight and a half.
33:57
Let's get those soccer plays coming up next with Paul Carr. I'm Scott Seidenberg, he's Kelly Biblin. It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN.
34:02
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:20
Scott Seidenberg back here in for Gil, alongside Kelly Biblin. It's a Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:26
It's time to head out to the progressive guest line as we welcome in Paul Carr from True Media Sports, The Expected Value podcast, as he gives us the top plays on the pitch.
34:35
And let's focus our attention, Paul, on the Premier League. See how I pronounced that, Kelly, properly? Yeah. Uh, love it. Premier League.
34:41
Uh, Man City, I, I wanna ask you, 'cause I, I know you have a play on them coming up here for this slate, uh, tomorrow, but they seem to fallen off a cliff as of late. I'm looking at the futures market.
34:51
They're 10 to 1 to win the league title. What is going on with Man City? [laughs] Boy, that's the question. I guess first, hello, Scott. Hello, Kelly. But that's the question of the Premier League season.
35:02
They have one win in their last 10 games in all competitions. Couple Cup finals- Wow... couple Champions League games. But one win in 10 games. Like, that's bad.
35:10
And it, I guess it reminds me a little bit of the 49ers- [laughs]... in that there's, there are injuries. Okay. You know?
35:18
City, we've talked about City has lost Rodri, their best player, the best player in the world this last year, midfielder who's out for the season with an injury.
35:25
Uh, they're now down to three healthy first team defenders, and they generally play with four, so that's bad, obviously. Uh, that's part of it. But they'd n- everything, yeah, they're falling apart. The
35:37
midfielder w- taking Rodri out is kind of the linchpin that has been holding everything together. Hmm. He's gone. The midfield gets worse, the defense gets worse, the attack gets worse.
35:45
And they look like they've been maybe just gonna try to outscore everybody, which sometimes looks like a good idea, but they give up so many good chances on the counterattack that they have to press more numbers forward to create chances.
35:57
It opens it up the other way, and it just looks like one of those kind of wheels fall off type of seasons, kind of like the 49ers are going through.
36:04
That's a great analogy, because both of them were favorites to win the title before the season- Right... started.
36:08
And while the 49ers are now done, at least Man City, well, 10 to 1, but it's, it's- I think they're, yeah, I think they're done from a title perspective. Probably done.
36:16
Because just the math, for them to get to the mid-80s on points for the season, they have to play at, like, 100-point pace, and there's just no chance that they're gonna do that the rest of the way.
36:26
So how are we looking to attack them in their game here against Man United coming up? Yeah. I mean, I've been playing a lot of double chances.
36:31
I've probably given out five or six on the show in the last month or two, and I think all but one has hit. Uh, so the double chance is an option, which would be a Manchester United win or draw. Mm-hmm.
36:40
I'm going a little more high risk on this one. I've taken the draw by itself in this match at plus 360. I talked about all City's struggles. They struggle in transition.
36:50
Manchester United has looked pretty decent in transition since their new manager, Ruben Amorim, came on- aboard about a month ago. And so I think this is gonna be an open game.
36:59
It feels a lot like a 2-2 kind of game that just gets a little nuts. So I played the draw at plus 360. If you wanna be a little less risky- Yeah... United double chance plus 135 or so.
37:12
You could go over three and a half at plus 115. I feel like there's a lot of decent plays here, 'cause I think this will be a little bit of a crazy, open sort of game. Paul's been on a tear recently.
37:20
Paul, was that a clean sweep, a Champions League we had, uh, earlier this week? Uh, went, went 2-1. 2-1. 2-1 at Champions League. We're up seven and a half units on Premier League this season. Hoo. All right, let's go.
37:30
And what about, I wanted to ask you one more about Man City. Uh- Yeah... do, do you co-sign the Feliko relegation bet yet, or not, not yet? [laughs] 10 to 1. 10 to 1.
37:38
Do we still have these penalties hanging over their head still? Yes, is the short answer. Uh, I mean, I would be surprised. Like, the 10 to 1 sprinkle, you know, I'm not gonna argue too much against it.
37:48
And I think I may have said this on the show last week. It could be one of those where... Well, I think they may take the point deduction for those penalties this year. This is just speculation, no, like, reporting here.
37:58
Because it's like one of those teams that says, "We're not gonna play in a bowl this season," when they're, you know, they, they're three and nine or something like that. Right. So, but I...
38:05
But getting relegated is so much more than just, you know, finishing 15th or something, just from a financial standpoint, that I don't really see it happening, 'cause I think they would just fight it.
38:15
Like, let's say the Premier League decided to do it today. City would fight that for more than six months, and I can't imagine that it would actually get done. So it's not a terrible bet. Lock it up in court.
38:23
[laughs] Kind of fun, but I'd be pretty surprised. I love the analogy of the bowl team that's out of it, and it's like, "We'll accept the sanctions this year- [laughs] Yeah... with the bowl ban." Right.
38:30
Like, "You weren't playing in a bowl anyway, guys." [laughs] Talk to me about Arsenal, because I see that when you're betting them here coming up against, uh, Everton, you like this game to be a shutout. Do. Yeah.
38:40
They have one of the best defenses in the league. They're probably not as good as they were last year right now, but still second or third by most underlying numbers.
38:47
They just don't give up a lot of opportunities or good opportunities to opponents. Uh, and now they're playing, hosting Everton. Everton has the second worst attack in the league this season.
38:56
They've been shut out in half of their 14 games. That's the most of any team in the league. And, and offense, which has been a s- challenge at times for Arsenal this year, has been looking better.
39:05
Uh, Bukayo Saka on the wing is looking like one of the best players in the world right now, had a goal and, uh, two goals and an assist against Monaco on Wednesday.
39:13
So Arsenal's gonna get a goal or two, and then they just kinda close up shop, and Everton I don't think will be able to crack them. So minus 120 on win to nil is what I've had here.
39:23
Paul Carr from True Media Sports, the Expected Value podcast, joining us on the Progressive guest line here on A Numbers Game. I'm Scott Seidenberg, in for Gill, here on VSIN.
39:32
You have one more best bet, Paul, and that's Bournemouth to win against West Ham. Why do you like them? Yeah, this one is on, not till Monday, so you got a little time. I like them to win at minus 135.
39:42
By some underlying numbers, like expected goal difference, Bournemouth is the fourth-best team in the league this season. A- and they're just running really cold. Hmm. But they're still in eighth place.
39:51
I'm not saying they're the fourth-best team, but I think they are definitely a top half team so far. Uh, they're running cold but still cooking. They've won three straight games.
39:59
Uh, they beat Wolves, Tottenham, and Ipswich by a total of four goals, but none of them are really all that close from an expected goals perspective.
40:06
Just meaning the types of shots, the shot quality that they were generating. They had over three expected goals in all three games, and only penalties, penalties were only a factor really in one of those.
40:15
Um, West Ham, bottom five this season, taking bad shots, facing a Bor- Bournemouth defense that's pretty good at preventing good shots.
40:22
And West Ham have been bad on the road lately, so that just adds up to a lot of trouble for West Ham. I don't, minus 135 is the price. I'd weigh probably to minus 150 or so for a Bournemouth win here.
40:31
Now, one of my favorite bets to make on soccer, when I do the occasional time dabble in on Premier League soccer, is both teams to score. I mean- Yeah... it's, it's exciting, right? We want- It is...
40:41
we wanna see some action. And so what I like to do is I look at games that have, you know, pretty high totals. And so I see Liverpool against Fulham is at three and a half. Both teams to score is minus 125.
40:52
What do you think about the both teams to score, not just in that game, but any game that you like here this weekend?
40:58
Yeah, this is usually a pretty juicy market, 'cause the scoring environment's been a little higher the last year or two. So the two that jump out are really the two best prices.
41:06
Minus 125 in that one, minus 130 in Newcastle, Leicester. Uh, either one of those I'm okay with. I would lean Newcastle, Leicester just because, frankly, Newcastle's defense is not as good as Liverpool's.
41:17
Liverpool likes to get a goal or two and just kinda sit on it and, and play it out.
41:22
Uh, Fulham may not play along with that, but that's what Liverpool would like to do, and I don't think Newcastle knows how to do that at all. Hmm.
41:27
And Leicester is, uh, probably gonna be relegated, not very good defensively, but they tend to go for it enough offensively. So if I had to pick one, I would take Newcastle, Leicester at minus 130.
41:37
Uh, I don't hate Liverpool, Fulham at minus 125 either, though. Hey, Paul, just looking at the, the top goal scorer market for, uh, for the Prem this year. Yeah. Uh, yeah, Erling Haaland, mi- minus 170.
41:47
Any Man City struggles we think gonna affect that at all? He is tied, uh, league lead with Mo Salah over on Liverpool. He's, Salah's two to one right now. You got Haaland at minus 170.
41:58
You got any thoughts in this market? I know it's very early still. I mean, City, their attack is so built around Haaland.
42:05
Like, when they brought him in, they had all these wingers and guys who could score, and you wondered if we... It's almost like putting a center on a fluid NBA team.
42:12
You wondered how they would be able to keep that fluidity with him. And now they've kinda swung that pendulum the other way, where they're overly reliant on him and everything is built toward funneling the ball to him.
42:24
So, and he takes penalties, as does Salah, so it's, it's tough to think that anybody's going to pass Haaland, barring an injury, of course.
42:32
Uh, Salah's been playing out of his mind, like the best player in the world, really. So plus 200 is probably not as high as I would want to get to take Salah in this one.
42:41
It's still really hard to bet against Haaland because, as I mentioned, City's best plan going forward may just be win games four to two. And in which case, Haaland's gonna get a couple. But it is down to minus 170 after.
42:52
It was much, much juicier earlier in the season. So again, I don't hate Salah at plus 200, but I probably would prefer a, a better price if I were gonna play him. Paul, great stuff. Thanks for joining us here.
43:03
Good luck with your bets this weekend. Thank you. Have a good one, Scott, Kelly.
43:06
There he is, Paul Carr, True Media Sports Expected Value Podcast on an absolute heater here on a numbers game, looking to continue that hot streak.
43:14
By the way, a friend of mine texted me on Wednesday and said, "Bet Mo Salah anytime goalscorer." And I, I didn't wake up, I didn't see the text, and he, he scored a goal. Yeah.
43:22
So that- That's what tends to happen, right? That happens. You know, I got a soccer guy. I got, I got a guy.
43:27
I, I guess I didn't ask Paul this, but I'm also gonna assume that there's nobody further down the list he would really consider, 'cause those are two of the top sco- goalscorers on two of the top, uh, teams- There you go.
43:36
Yep... in, in the Prem. Hey, nothing delivers comfort and joy quite like the unrivaled quality and taste of Omaha Steaks.
43:42
It's guaranteed perfection in every single bite, and right now you can save on unforgettable gifts with 50% off sitewide at omahasteaks.com. Plus, score an extra $30 off with promo code NUMBERS.
43:54
With five generations of experience, they consistently deliver the world's best steak experience, and the gifting experts at Omaha Steaks have made it easy to deliver the perfect gift with thoughtfully curated gift packages featuring gourmet favorites.
44:06
From legendary steaks to mouth-watering desserts and more, save 50% off sitewide for a limited time at omahasteaks.com. Plus, our listeners get an extra $30 off with promo code NUMBERS.
44:17
That's 50% off at O-M-A-H-A steaks.com, Omaha, and an extra $30 off with promo code NUMBERS. Minimum purchase may apply. I'm Scott Seidenberger. He's Kelly Bidlin. I'm in for Gil here on a Numbers Game.
44:31
Coming up, we'll get back into the NFL, plus it's Army-Navy. Does that mean we just hammer the under? The under. Just, just, it feels right. But sometimes it feels good to feel so wrong.
44:44
[laughs] We'll get into that game coming up next here on BSIN. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
