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Dec 17, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 17, 2024 | Hour 1
A Numbers Game | December 17, 2024 | Hour 1
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:35
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the e-sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, so many ways to take us in. We just love that you choose one of them.
0:44
We appreciate you making us part of your morning. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Biddle, and everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, here on the Numbers Game. How you doing, man? Doing well.
0:53
How are you? Uh, I'm good. I asked you, uh, before the show off the cuff, I'm like, "Hey, you, uh, you going to that NBA Cup, uh, final tonight?" And you said... I'm going to the showdown.
1:04
I wanna call- I've definitely been calling it the match for four straight days. [laughs] I guess it's got a different name.
1:08
The showdown, it's, uh, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler versus, uh, Brooks Koepka and, uh, Bryson DeChambeau. You fancy. Yeah, yeah. Good for you. I am, yeah. Going over there- That's a-... with Matt Brown, yeah...
1:18
that's a very exclusive crowd out there at Shadow Creek. Oh, I have no idea how, yeah, how I'm going. Yes.
1:22
I, I was totally planning on going to the NBA Cup, but, uh, yeah, but I think this is more, more exclusive event and, uh, should be fun to do. Bring a jacket. Yeah, it's gonna be cold.
1:31
Couldn't you go to both if you wanted to, make it a day? I, yeah, I was thinking about it- Yeah... but, like, it's gonna be, that'd be tight. I would be getting to the NBA game late, for sure.
1:39
Whole show, we're just gonna go through what Kelly's gonna do today. [laughs] That's all we're gonna talk about. Uh, we do have a great show.
1:44
Drew Dincic joins us, uh, from not only the Deep Dive podcast, but also NBC Sports Bet the Edge. Uh, not one podcast is enough to contain this man. He's got two. He'll come on. Nick Bakay.
1:56
Uh, Nick Bakay has been on this show many times. He ours, he's our, he's our big Hollywood connection guy. Um- [laughs] Big Hollywood connection... uh, we love Nick.
2:04
He, uh, he is the co-creator, the showrunner, if you will, of Bookie, which has, uh, begun its season number two on Max, on HBO Max, and, uh, it stars Sebastian Maniscalco, so he will be here to talk about that and all the challenges that that brings to the table.
2:20
And for those of, of us of a certain age, and Kelly, you are not of this certain age, but well before they spoke about anything gambling-wise on ESPN, because it was verboten, right?
2:29
They had to sort of, like, skirt around it, a la the way that Brent and Al have done it for years. Mm-hmm. Nick would come on ESPN, and he would have segments in the early aughts, I believe it was.
2:40
Uh, people will remember the catchphrases, "Advantage push." Uh, so Nick Bakay with his, uh, gambling chops, he'll come on to sh- uh, to talk with us.
2:47
And Mike Sando, we've had Aaron Schatz on this year, as we do every year, you know, multiple times to, to talk about NFL Awards. He's one of the 50 voters.
2:56
Well, Mike Sando from The Athletic is another one of the 50 voters for NFL Awards, so we'll pick his brain on what he's thinking about for all of them, MVP on down. So Sando will join us a little later on the show.
3:09
Uh, we begin, of course, though, with the, uh, double header, NFL double header last night. May I just say this, if gambling did not exist, good God- [laughs]...
3:17
what a, what a horrible fan viewing experience the NFL was this entire weekend. And by the way, that even includes the 48-42 game, which was not that awesome. Uh, yeah, I agree. I agree.
3:28
I, e- especially when we, like, that Sunday early window we all thought was probably gonna be pretty bad, and then when it plays out that way too- Oh, so bad... it's, like, brutal.
3:36
I don't know about, so, like, we didn't really talk about this yesterday. I, is it better to have, like, y- you asked me, I love the ha- the idea of having two Monday Night Football games on. Love it.
3:45
But is it better or worse if they both kind of stink? Um, yeah. Which I don't know. [laughs] I also don't want, I also don't wanna have this tape saved for July when I'm like, "Please get me the NFL."
3:55
Right, [laughs] exactly. Yeah. 'Cause I don't wanna be. I'm grateful about it. Um, last night, Chicago, Minnesota, uh, the first, if you will, the one that started a half hour earlier, Minnesota gets it done again.
4:05
Minnesota 12 and two, and again, control their own destiny, as does, as do the Lions, by the way. They both meet, the Vikings and the Lions, in week 18, and that's why both of them control their own destiny.
4:17
Both 12 and two. 30 to 12 they beat the Chicago Bears.
4:20
Um, the only thing to say about this, 'cause this was not a tour de force by the Vikings by any stretch, but if you just go through the Chicago possessions, it is just a, i- it's a comedy.
4:31
It's just one of these things where it's like if something can go wrong, it will. Uh, they were four and two were the Bears at one point this season. They are now four and 10. They have lost eight in a row.
4:42
Their drives, uh, were all, th- this was the list of them. Fourth and one at their own 39, they decide to go for it. First drive of the game, Swift stuffed by Jonathan Greenard.
4:51
Um, three to nothing, next time they had the ball they matriculated, the Bears did third and nine at the Minnesota 29. Caleb sacked by Greenard, fumbles, Blake Cashman recovers. Uh, 10 to nothing, punt for Chicago. Um,
5:05
at that point it i- Chicago gets the ball back. It's fourth and three at the, uh, pardon me, it's, it's 13 to nothing, Minnesota at the half. Those are all the Chicago.
5:14
Oh, Chicago had a fourth and one at the Minnesota 29 late in the first half, pardon me. Swift stuffed by Blake Cashman. Mm-hmm. So it's 13 to nothing at the half, Minnesota.
5:23
They probably could have had a bigger lead, but 13 to nothing, just, Chicago just hanging around. The, uh, the third quarter starts Chicago punt, and then their second drive, down 13, six play, 58-yard drive.
5:36
It only took two minutes and 21 seconds. Swift in from one, 13 to seven it's gonna be. Uh, except for one little thing You see the, uh, the offensive lineman Doug Kramer did not report as an eligible receiver.
5:49
Uh, he lined up in the backfield as the fullback, if you will. He didn't report. Didn't even come close to reporting, by the way, when they showed the replay, the Zapruder- [laughs]... the Zapruder film footage of this.
5:58
Um- Yeah, this wasn't the Lions from last year. No. This, it's, right, where, where there was some question about that. Yeah. Nah, he didn't, he didn't report at all. So they get backed up five yards.
6:07
Swift, by the way, gets five yards back on first down. Um, but then after that it's two incomplete passes, and just as, you know, if the Bears can't be good, they also can't have luck.
6:16
There's a face mask that went uncalled on Caleb by Cashman, so they had to settle for a field goal, 13 to 3. Uh, Vikings made it 20 to 3, then 20 to 6. I mean, Chicago just completely took over the Minnesota 27.
6:29
Six plays in, fourth and 10 at the Minnesota 16. This is late, down, uh, by the score of 27 to 6. That's the only time they got in the end zone, on a fourth and 10 at the Minnesota 16, Caleb to, uh, Keenan Allen.
6:40
Too many men on the field for Minnesota, so Chicago got the ball at the one. They decided to go for two. They couldn't get that either, so they lose 27 to 12. I just wanna say this, though.
6:47
If you started, actually they lose 30 to 12 eventually, 'cause, uh, Minnesota added a field goal.
6:51
But with the Bears, if I had asked you during the day yesterday, "Come up, Kelly, I want you to come up with a creative way that the Bears botch another game," you would not even have been able to imagine the non-reporting.
7:05
Like, they just, it's just amazing. [laughs] It's wild, man. I mean, it's, it's, it's like the Cowboys, uh, block punt the other week. It's just things that don't happen. They just don't happen. It's incredible.
7:14
And so the Vikings, good for the Vikings. 30 and, uh, 30 to 12 win, now 12 and 2 in the standings, and again, control their own destiny. They do have a tough schedule down the rest of the... Here's the thing.
7:23
Vikings have the tougher schedule. Detroit ravaged by injuries. Yeah. And then there's Philly lurking also for that number one seed.
7:30
By the way, Detroit's injuries after the show yesterday, David Montgomery, uh, ruled out for the season with, uh, season-ending knee in- uh, knee surgery. Elliott McNeal on defense, season-ending knee surgery.
7:42
Khalil Dorsey, season-ending surgery, uh, Sunday night after breaking his leg. Carlton Davis has a jaw issue, jaw injury, so he'll be out at least in the short term. A broken jaw. Yeah, yeah.
7:52
Um, he'll be back at some point, but you know, you add that to Hutchinson and, uh, Anzalone, and you're just like, "Oh my God." Detroit at, at this point, it just becomes a body count for them. Yeah.
8:01
But, uh, Vikings finish at Seattle, home Green Bay at Detroit. So I would still say in the Nick Mackay way, advantage Lions- Yeah... despite the injuries. Yeah, we'll have to see, man. I- We'll see...
8:13
it, it really feels like it is building up. I, I think that that Bills game might have been the, uh, uh, that might have been the final straw of just, man, this team, I don't know how...
8:21
We talk about it all the time, especially, you know, NBA, NFL, who's the healthy t- who's the, the lone healthy good team left? Yeah.
8:28
And I, Lions' injuries might have ended up racking up and playing them- uh, playing themselves out of this. Well, i- if it doesn't in the regular season, it sure- Yeah... looms for the postseason, that's for sure.
8:38
The other game, um, oh, last thing about this. Kevin O'Connell becomes the short shot to win now, the, uh, excuse me, the favorite to win Coach of the Year over Dan Campbell. This is appropriate.
8:47
I think it's appropriate. And didn't Cleve in the off-season, wasn't that his guy, Kevin O'Connell? Didn't he have him at, like, 29 to 1 or something? I don't remember. I think so. Good old Cleve.
8:56
I mean, it sounds right, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. It sounds right.
8:58
The other game- I mean, you gotta, like, it, I mean, you gotta give that ch- uh, I was kinda thinking about it while you were going through the recap, like, you gotta give that Vikings team something, you know what I mean?
9:06
Like, they're, they're, they're, it's not like they have really b- anybody else in any of the races. Yeah. So I don't know. I always feel like that's an easy way for the voters to recognize a team somehow.
9:15
In terms of expectations, it's him and Tomlin, in terms of exceeding ex- expectations, right? Um, Kevin O'Connell, I mean, what can you say? And it's with Darnold, right? Yeah. Like, who thought this was possible?
9:26
And the Vikings long-term now, past this season, have a Sam Darnold problem. What do you do? Mm-hmm. You have JJ McCarthy waiting, but if you end, if you end up 14 and 3, are you really moving on? [laughs] I know.
9:39
So that's, so there's that. The other game last night, uh, but- I mean, a good problem to have, right? It's a good problem. Yeah. It, well, I guess. I guess it is, but it puts you in a very awkward little pickle.
9:48
That's for sure. You gotta gamble, yeah. Um, Falcons-Raiders last night. Falcons win it 15 to 9. Uh, there's not much to say about this except for Cousins 11 of 17 for 112.
9:59
Speaking of quarterback problems, Atlanta still alive in the NFC South, a game behind the Buccaneers, but win the tiebreaker 'cause they swept the Bucs. What do you do?
10:10
Do you stick with your, uh, multimillion-dollar quarterback who's struggling, struggling? Michael Penix in the, uh, in the shadows at this point.
10:18
I just wanna get to the, to the end of this game, 'cause w- we do a segment on the Megapod called Dumbo of the Week, and it's usually about coaches.
10:25
This week we have to have a separate category for players flipping the ball before they get through the goal, you know, through the plane of the goal line, and we have to have a coaches one.
10:32
The end of this game, it's 15 to 3, uh, 15 to 3 Falcons, and the Raiders all of a sudden, who have done pretty much nothing all day, Ridder's in now, um,
10:46
for, uh, Ridder's in for the, for the Raiders in this game, and they come down the field and, um, they score a touchdown, 15 to 9. Now, they get the extra point blocked, which of course is- Ah...
11:01
significant to some, as they say, and it really is significant to some of the some, because it depends on where you got the number. Right. Right? If you got five and a half versus six and a half, that mattered.
11:09
Um, if you got the, uh, if you got the six and a half, you were l- you were just absolutely, um, loving, you know, you're, you're loving that.
11:17
But if you had the five and a half, good God, uh, for the, for the, uh, Raiders. But then Atlanta has the ball, two minutes left. The Raiders are out of timeouts. It's a third and six with two minutes left.
11:29
So what do you do? You run there, right? If you're- Mm-hmm... the Falcons, 'cause you wanna milk 40 seconds off the clock. Not, not the Atlanta Falcons. Nope. Mm-mm. Nope.
11:37
Raheem Morris and the Falcons decide they're going to throw the football. Incomplete, of course. So it gives the Raiders 40 additional seconds to try to matriculate the ball down the field and win this game.
11:47
And they ultimately get a shot at a Hail Mary. Not really a Hail Mary. Come from the 35-yard line. Ultimately, it's an interception.
11:54
But just what complete malpractice by Morris and the Falcons coaching staff at the end of that game. Like the stupidity of some of these teams is off the charts. Well, Kirk Cousins has looked so sharp the past few weeks.
12:05
Why wouldn't you do that, Gil? Come on. Oh, it's just so bad. Anyway, Atlanta keeps hope alive. We'll come back. Drew Dinsick on the other side. It's a numbers game at Beaston, the sports betting network.
12:22
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12:30
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12:38
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12:50
We get tweets that beat in the book. Best listeners in the game. I'm not kidding. Really are. This is from, is it Huddy or Huddy Delight? He said all I could hear, talking about the end of the Saints-Skins game.
13:02
He says, all I could hear in the back of my head was local announcer Todd Wishnev on the call. Oh, wait, I'm hearing something. Yes, it's coming in. Saints down seven, three seconds to play.
13:10
Rattler drops back, hits Marone. He's going towards the pylon and he scores. Todd does that every show. Unbelievable cover. Yeah. Ask Kelly Bidlin how he did on his teaser leg on the Skins there.
13:21
Jason Stark, love Nick Bakai. Advantage push coming up on the show. Ice Cold Gamblers is very disappointed to hear Kelly is choosing the showdown over the NBA.
13:30
Gil, be ready for Kelly to call in tomorrow with quote unquote food poisoning. Fezzik's South Point Runner has checked back in. Oh, good. He says, what is Kelly having for lunch and dinner? Food at the game?
13:40
So many unanswered questions. In-game into membrane. In-game into membrane. Whispering, he says. Gil, I'm a Falcons fan. But I'm watching the quarterback play over the past five weeks.
13:50
How bad must Penix look in practice for this coaching staff to continue to trot Cousins out there? So true. And we have one for our guest, Drew Dinsick, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:00
Drew Dinsick at Whale underscore Capper, not only the host of the Deep Dive, which he does with Andy Molitor, but also, of course, NBC Sports Bet the Edge with Jay Croucher. This is from Mortal Locks 914.
14:10
Can you ask Drew if he bets or pays any attention to the ATP Next Gen Finals? How you doing, Drew? Oh, I'm doing tremendously well. And the Next Gen Finals is, that's where the future stars are born.
14:23
That's where Yannick Sitter first burst on the scene. And I'm not following it. But I will absolutely scrape the results. The format is funky.
14:38
And I know they're doing it just so that it doesn't feel like every other tennis tournament. But that actually makes parsing the data and using it in a forward sense a little challenging.
14:47
Yeah, I totally hear you on that. I also would have answered the same way. No particular betting interest in this event. But you will scrape the results. Let me just show this up here.
14:58
This is a Dove Kleiman, if that is your real name. Dove Kleiman, it's a familiar Twitter football account. Let's put it that way. We don't know if it's the original Dove Kleiman.
15:09
We don't know if there's still a restraining order where Jennifer Lawrence is concerned. We're not sure. But there's some football information here.
15:15
This is just a three-column comparison between Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. Bold-faced indicates, for those who can see this on the screen, bold-faced indicates who is leading in those categories.
15:28
And as you see, there is 3, 6, 9, 12. There's 14 categories. Lamar Jackson has most of the bold. Joe Burrow has the majority of the others. You know what Josh Allen has the bold-faced in?
15:43
He's tied for the number of games played because they've all played 14. His team's record is the best, 11-3. And the only other thing he leads in is rushing touchdowns, which he leads by a lot.
15:54
Who would you vote for at MVP right now if you had a vote? I would vote for Lamar. But I look through the prism of almost entirely how much total EPAV generated. And right now, Lamar is number one, but it's narrow.
16:09
The way Josh Allen has played the last two weeks, he has closed a huge gap. But it's funny because it's basically everyone has already decided MVP discussion is over. Let's move on.
16:20
And this happens around the holidays because people don't really want to put in the hard work down the stretch. They just want to have things decided. And then we can kind of move on collectively.
16:28
And the two performances back-to-back in the super high-profile games that we saw from Josh Allen was enough for everyone to just decide, okay, he's the guy.
16:36
He's going to be the first MVP, maybe the first unanimous MVP where he is second in everything. It's like there's no doubt about it. He's just in general the second best quarterback behind Mahomes.
16:49
He's going to have the second best record behind Mahomes probably. I guess that could all change if Carson Wentz goes out there and Wentzes it up the next couple of weeks. But
16:58
it looks like surely Lamar Jackson has performed the best.
17:03
And the counting stats have gone to Joe Burrow as he has largely been in comeback mode and or been forced to air it out when there have been portions of the game where Josh Allen can put away wins just with
17:15
some competent drives as opposed to ADR touchdown passes. But that said, I'm bitter about this because I'm not on the Josh Allen MVP bandwagon at all. And he's one of my most favorite players to watch play football.
17:28
And so every time I'm watching a Bills game, I'm like, there he goes again. This guy's just going to waltz in. He's going to walk in the MVP. Unbelievable.
17:39
But I didn't necessarily think Lamar Jackson was the deserved winner last year. I thought Josh Allen outperformed him. And it's pretty funny kind of symmetry where
17:49
because he has a better record this year It's gonna go to Josh Yeah, Aaron Schatz, uh, said, uh, you know, famously... We, we were at dinner, Kelly and I- Yeah... and Matt Brown.
17:56
We were at dinner with Aaron Schatz when the announcement-- He's one of the 50 voters.
18:00
When the announcer c- uh, when the announcement came last year that Lamar Jackson was one vote shy of being a unanimous MVP- [laughs] 49 of 50. [laughs] And Aaron was the guy. He was the vote that went with Josh Allen.
18:13
Yeah. And we lost him for about five minutes, 'cause he knew what was coming. And he said- Oh, geez...
18:18
last time he was on this show, and he might have changed his mind by now, um, but he-- last time he was on this show, he says, "I bet you it'll be reversed this year. I'll be the only one on, on Lamar Jackson this year."
18:26
So we'll see. It'll be interesting.
18:28
I, yeah, I, we, I, Aaron and I are, are, uh, coming from the same point of view on this, even though I know he probably uses his proprietary statistics, uh, more directly than, uh, just the general, general EPA stuff that's out there.
18:40
But, um, no, I mean, uh, what Lamar Jackson is doing is absolutely ridiculous this year. And, uh, the fact that he is, um, you know, f- I can't believe he only has three picks, to be honest with you.
18:50
Like, that's the, that's the real eye-opener there- Mm... which is he is throwing the ball, uh, pretty aggressively there. And this is a, uh, a deep passing attack.
18:58
Uh, and, uh, he is, he is doing it at a, a very, very high level.
19:02
And I mean, what's, what the funny kind of carry forward for this is that, uh, I'm assuming that the Chiefs don't bottle this and, and really do get the one seed.
19:11
Like, we're set up, I think, for a very clear divisional round matchup between Allen and Jackson and Buffalo, and that is obviously going to be the kind of the de facto AFC Championship game, I think.
19:22
Uh, except for the fact that that could be such a physical and tolling and, you know, kind of a, you know, a game that, that has such consequences that, you know, whoever kinda comes through goes to a pretty rested and healthy Chiefs team in Arrowhead [laughs] and loses.
19:36
And you could end up with the fricking Chiefs in the Super Bowl again- Here we go again... even though, like, clearly the two best teams in the AFC, in my opinion, are Buffalo and Baltimore.
19:43
Now, if Buffalo just kind of waxes Baltimore and it's not a competitive game and they're kind of fresh and healthy and dangerous going into Kansas City, it's obviously pretty different.
19:51
But I think the margin between Buffalo and Baltimore is very, very narrow right now. Um, and, uh, I think we're, we're on tap for a, you know, a classic showdown in the divisional round.
19:59
And honestly, that's kinda the only thing that really kinda gets me out of bed for the AFC right now. The AFC is not looking good for wild card weekend.
20:07
Like, these wild card teams that are in the mix now are all drawing dead. Um, even against Houston, I'm not ex- inspired by whoever gets the five seed here.
20:15
So, um, yeah, the, the AFC looks to me at least to be decided by who wins that Buffalo-Baltimore game and what is the cost.
20:23
[laughs] And, and at that point, uh, you know, we, we have one of our teams in the, in the, uh, in the mix. And then on the NFC side right now, throw a dart, man. Like, take a price. Like, this looks so wide open.
20:35
I am, uh, I'm dying to, uh, see what this, you know, how this, uh, s- you know, seedings shakes out, because that's gonna have huge implications for path.
20:45
Um, but, uh, you could convince me basically one through six that any of these teams are good to go, and I'll even listen to an argument for the Commanders at seven.
20:53
But I'm not going to listen to it now, because there is still a very clear and obvious way for them to find their way out of the playoffs- Yeah... which absolutely stinks.
20:59
I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna make you listen to that argument, because I'm not, I'm not even sure I'm convinced of it either.
21:04
[laughs] Let me just, let me just, before we get to your week 16 picks, which we'll do after the break, let me just focus on the Vikings, who obviously played most recently- Sure... and won last night.
21:11
12 and 2, control their own destiny. Could get the number- Mm-hmm... one seed, control their own destiny in the NFC North. Um, you said you could, you could, you know, be okay with an argument for any of the top six.
21:22
What is the Vikings' argument? Like, do, do you see them as legitimately, uh, as viable as any of them? Absolutely, I do. They're the most well-coached defense of any of these teams outside of the Eagles.
21:38
Um, and even there, maybe that, that's a fine margin between Vikings' defense and Eagles' defense. Um, I think the Eagles' defense is more talented. Fangio's done a masterful job this year.
21:47
But, um, you know, there's, there's an argument to listen to that the Vikings have the best D. Um, and they absolutely have the best set of weapons.
21:55
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison right now might be the most dynamic one-two wide receiver threat in all of football. Hockenson is coming on as he is getting more reps coming off of that brutal injury from last year.
22:04
And they lack a running game. They don't have much in the way of balance, and Sam Darnold does do some things that obviously kind of spook you, and I think that's why their price is a little depressed.
22:13
But, um, you know, I think it's pretty obvious and, and pretty clear that a player that's as talented as Justin Jefferson could just flat out take over a playoff game, and no one would be surprised.
22:23
And there are enough susceptible pass defenses in the mix in the NFC that, um, you know, the Vikings, uh, even if they don't have, uh, you know, path comes through us, uh, I think have a chance to go deep.
22:36
Who, between the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings, who of those three, which of those three does home field throughout the playoffs mean the most to?
22:46
It means the most to the Eagles by a margin, and that's because teams gotta come play 'em outside, and the Linc is a very violent place to go play a football game in January. I think that's the answer for sure.
22:56
Week 16 thoughts from Drew. Once again, you can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper. Uh, all of his bets. Let's see if he even has any bets. Slim pickings from where me and Kelly were sitting yesterday.
23:07
That's coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, if you wanna bet smarter, and I know you do, start with smarter insights.
23:23
A VSiN Pro subscription delivers just that, the kind of actionable content that gives you the betting edge. Right now, you can check out articles like Greg Peterson's College Hoops Best Bets.
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They don't call him Hoops for nothing. Adam Burke's preview of the Frisco Bowl. I haven't bet on the Frisco Bowl. Little later, Kelly. Ooh.
23:38
Zach Cohen's NBA Cup Championship preview, and later today, you can check out Tyler Shoemaker's NFL Best Bets for Week 16. Adam Shine with his Shine 9 column. Jonathan Davis, top NHL best bets.
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24:01
Did that work? Yeah, sure way. [laughs] Don't forget to subscribe. [laughs] Um, we get tweets at Bet You The Book, always appreciated. Uh, Primetime, Cowboys_Cubs1, "Yo, hey man."
24:12
[laughs] I love he gets the, he gets the preamble out of the way. Hey, yo, hey, man. Hey, man. "Now that we have morphed from the summer of George to the winter of K. Michael Bin Laden, inquiring minds need a bet.
24:22
Over, under three and a half brown liquor drinks today from Kelly." He says, uh, "Give me a Charles Barkley marker max bet on over." [laughs] Ask Gil about that if you don't get the reference, Kelly.
24:30
Yeah, that's a strong lean. That's a strong lean to the over. Yeah. Strong lean. Charles Barkley has a history here in town with, uh- Oh, yeah... markers. Oh, yeah. Let's just put it that way.
24:39
James Sott, "Will Nick Bakay be himself or Sabrina The Teenage Witch's cat, Salem? Either way, I'm excited." Nick Bakay also the voice of Salem the cat- Mm-hmm... on Sabrina The Teenage Witch. Um, what was that?
24:50
Was that CW or one of those stations? Was it CW or the- Ye-... the WB? I mean, it definitely ran on CW at some point. I don't- Da-ba-da-ba-da-ba-da-ba... I don't know if that's where it started... WB. Sam Ginsburg. Yeah.
25:01
"Valvana, Valvano went to NC State." I love it when people tweet like stuff that has no correlation to anything we're talking about. He said, "Valvano went to NC State.
25:09
His new barber told him he hoped he would do better than the last coach. Valvano said, 'What are you talking about? Sloan won the NCAA championship.'
25:15
Barber says, 'Yeah, but imagine what Dean Smith would have done with that team.'" [laughs] He says, "The Vikings might be 12 and 2, but imagine if they had kept Cousins."
25:24
Let's just say this, the Vikings' history now, Case Keenum, fantastic season, Minnesota, Minneapolis Miracle or Minnesota Miracle, whatever we're calling it. Then the Kirk Cousins years, and now the Sam Darnold year.
25:36
Yeah. Bookended by greatness from Keenum and Darnold. Kelly always gets uncomfortable when I take a shot at, at Cousins. [laughs] I know. It was an incredible run.
25:45
Like this te- this is what we keep talking about with this Vikings team, though. We don't want to give them any credit ever over the past several years. Awesome team. Awesome. And you know what?
25:53
I stand, I s- I raise my hand. I have not given them enough respect this year. Brandon- Well, you got, you got that package. We should just sh- show that to Sam. I think I got your package for Gil. Yeah.
26:01
Oh, Sam, is that you? Yeah, if, if, if- Thank you, Sam... if it's not your package, then yeah, we'll give you... You need somebody to take this one. Sam, I f- I didn't know that was from you.
26:07
I was asking people to do the Lefty Rosenthal thing where they, uh- [laughs]... Chrissy Andrews story, where he was like, "I love Mr. Rosenthal. He's so nice. He lets me start his car every morning."
26:15
[laughs] I was like asking people to open the package. Brandon Webb, "Would a Commanders Super Bowl be grounds for Gil getting drunk?" That's the Super Bowl party I want to be at.
26:23
[laughs] Oh, I will totally, uh, totally have a different kind of, uh, experience. The Numbers Guys, "Question for Drew. Are you happy now, Drew Dincic, you Lions-hating dirty dog? Just kidding. LOL.
26:34
Wish you could have just let us have our five-week moment in the sun." Drew Dincic joins us once again. I love it when the, uh, the guests get tweets from folks, uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
26:43
[laughs] Uh, people, people didn't love where you had them power ranked. And he's just, he's sort of asking, uh, in jest, although not quite in jest completely. Yeah. Are you happy now? Uh, of course you're not happy.
26:53
I, I'm- But maybe corroborately. No, abs- no. Uh, this is a- I wanted to, I wanted to see this, uh, have a much happy... I mean, it's still, I guess it's not over, over.
27:02
But I mean, these injuries, absolutely brutal- Oh, it's brutal... for the Lions. Um- Brutal... Alan, the Alan McNeil one especially, like that guy was really emerging.
27:10
And, um, yeah, it, uh, this is, this is gonna be tough for them to overcome.
27:14
Um, I believe in Dan Campbell kind of getting these guys up off the mat, but, um, boy, oh boy, are they sort of the proverbial team that peaked too early. And it, uh, it stinks.
27:23
Um, but you know, the NFC is, uh, wide open. The Detroit Lions went on the road at the Niners last year in the NFC Championship game and gave them an absolute war.
27:33
Um, I was against them that day aggressively, and I paid the price. And so I'm not... I, I, I think even losing home field, um, even if you lose the...
27:42
You know, if you have to go via wild card, uh, this is still a Lions team that has shown they can go on the road and get it done. Um, [clears throat] that said, awful big point spread this week. You want any part of it?
27:54
Yeah, probably gonna be on the Bears. [laughs] This is too big of a number. Like, uh, as I look up and down at my numbers this week, um...
28:01
And actually, yeah, before getting into that, I guess, uh, just for, just to close the loop for you guys, uh, Sabrina The Teenage Witch, uh, four seasons on ABC before mo- migrating over to the WB, uh, to finish out their- I am so sorry...
28:14
their final two seasons. So- I apologize to Nick in advance... um, [laughs] yeah, the CW. Get out of here. Um [laughs] I don't know. Get out of here. Sorry. I did, I did not know that off the top of my head.
28:24
I looked it up. Oh. Um, but, uh, yeah, I mean, uh, the... You were, you were right about slim pickings this week across the NFL. These games are miserable.
28:32
Um, thanks a lot to the, uh, to the league for, uh, doing this to us at a time of year where we all have a lot more time to consume football.
28:39
Um, not giving us much in the way of enter- en- you know, entertainment or good games. Um, that Monday night m- mess last night is still kind of confounding. Why did we do that? Why those games?
28:48
What, you know, what happened? Uh, and, uh, you know, ultimately this is, uh, this is looking like a little bit of a busted week. All of my biggest edges are on absolute nonsense teams up against good teams.
29:00
Um, and I just can't quite get to the biggest numbers that are out there. Um, that includes the Saints against the Packers. 13 and a half to me is a little bit ridiculous. That includes the Giants against Atlanta.
29:12
Um, I don't think in any way the s- Patriots deserve getting 14. Uh, and, uh, and certainly, uh, the, uh, the Lions number I think is too big. I'm gonna be on the Bears.
29:22
Uh, don't know about what the weather's gonna look like in Chicago this week one way or the other, but, um, this Lions team all of a sudden having to go outside with the injuries they've sustained and, uh, you know, put up a win by margin seems like a tough ask right now.
29:34
Those injuries, again, just from this past week, David Montgomery out for the year, Alim McNeill out for the year, Khalil Dorsey out for the year. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, Carlton Davis with a jaw injury. Carlton Davis.
29:43
He'll be back at some point. Yeah. But that, of course, on top of, uh, Hutchinson, Ancelotti, and et cetera, et cetera. By the way, you didn't mention the Browns as having an, an edge this week. That's who I landed on.
29:54
Yeah, I, I mean, I can't get to that number with the Browns, but at the same time, like, this Browns defense, uh, has, has pretty much given up, and they are now ailing, uh, pretty significantly in the secondary.
30:05
Bengals look like a team that is just trying to, um, you know, set some milestones, some career milestones. Uh, it is going to be pretty hilarious to see both, um-
30:15
Burrow and Chase win their respective triple crowns in stat counting this year. Uh, and this team's gonna be eliminated from the playoffs by, like, week 16.
30:25
Um, I, I, I'm blown away by how, uh, miserable that, uh, Cincinnati defense has been, and there's no reinforcements coming, so maybe Cleveland's live in this one.
30:34
But it's probably gonna be DTR, which I, I mean, at least when I look at this number, I assume that's a DTR number, and, uh, I, I'm, I'm not there for that. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not joining the DTR party.
30:43
I'll join the, uh, uh, the Rattler party in New Orleans. I'll join the, um, the, the Drake May- the Drake Mayasance in, uh, in New England.
30:52
Um, I'll even, uh, I'll even give some consideration to whatever Tim Boyle was doing in, uh, in New York. But, uh- I've heard Tim Boyle was doing. I'm, I'm not here, I'm not here for the DTR experience.
31:00
[laughs] But let me, but let me... So this, this begs the question, though. Yeah. 'Cause this comes up at the ends of, of seasons. Um, but not in baseball.
31:07
Sometimes it's, you know, at the beginning of the season 'cause teams, the, the chasm between the haves and the have-nots is so wide there. Yeah.
31:13
But here we have a situation, okay, so you're, whatever process you have, whether it's by model or non-model- Yeah... you end up with edges on the poo-poo platter of teams, which you've just described, right?
31:25
You have, you're like, "Okay, these are the teams where I think I need to bet them." Okay, then remove the Drew Dincic, um, mechanical sports bettor hat- Sure...
31:36
and go to Drew Dincic human being, who sees, "Oh, man, Drew Dincic mechanical sports bettor's-" [laughs] "... got these edges. Do I really wanna live through all of this?"
31:45
So does the human being part of you override that to any degree and say, "You know what? It may say that, but I have some humility in this as well. Maybe I don't know everything.
31:55
I don't wanna experience this, and I'm just gonna either pare down my bets or not bet them entirely"? Oh, yeah, without question.
32:02
And I think that's the right process that you're describing in totality, not just looking at your numbers and fire, fire, fire.
32:08
Like, you absolutely have to have a kind of a, a, in my opinion at least, a quantitative underpinning.
32:14
Which is to say, you're coming up with a fair that's kind of a repeatable process that's kind of you're taking your judgment out of it.
32:21
And then once you have a set of fairs, then you put a qualitative layer over it that is either your eye test, your, uh, you know, the sub- subjective, uh, decision-making because of situational things.
32:31
Uh, last week I could not have told you in a million years that a fair price for, uh, Ravens, Giants was gonna close 16. Um- Oh...
32:40
and I would've said, "Yeah, the numbers say Giants," but you look at that situation and you're like, "Uh, no thanks.
32:46
Ravens [laughs] coming off of a bye against the Giants team that has clearly thrown up the white flag may- may- maybe with a internal mandate to lose. Like, no, thanks."
32:54
Um, and so I think ultimately this is, uh, you know, th- this time of year the qualitative part of it, um, takes a huge step forward.
33:02
I mean, week four, five, six, seven, eight, if you're really kinda using qualitative angles to make your final decisions as opposed to just, uh, you know, kind of a, a last kind of check the box, then, you know, I think you're, you're, you're overstating your, your confidence.
33:16
But this, but this time of year, um, with the moving parts and, you know, the just... You know, you have to make guesses. Like, you, you... I'll never forget the Chargers game against the Ravens la- Raiders last year.
33:26
The Chargers literally quit to get their coach fired, and like, I was like, you know, you, you... That total was 36. I remember that. Yeah. And it was a 90-point game. [laughs] You know?
33:35
And it's like, you know, you don't really know what a team's gonna give you this time of year because they're trying to send a message or they're trying to fight hard. And, uh, yeah, so I think that's the right process.
33:44
Drew, uh, Oklahoma City, uh, Thunder four and a half point favorites, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup final tonight. Do you have a play? My fair, my fair is six and a half there, so Thunder for me. Thunder.
33:55
No play on the total? No. Nothing on the total. Thunder for Drew in the Emirates NBA Cup championship season number two. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it, man. Best of luck, guys.
34:06
College football play and your tweets next. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino.
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35:10
We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate it. You guys are as much a part of the show as we are, for God's sakes. Uh, this is from, uh, hmm, let's see.
35:18
Coach May, "Has anyone commented that the Vikings might have the best backup quarterback as well?" Do, does Daniel Jones leap to the top of the backup quarterback rankings? I'm gonna say no.
35:31
I'm gonna say Andy Dalton still number one. Yeah. He's probably up there, though. He's up there. Jones is up there. Oh, he's a top fiver, maybe even a top two-er. Better than Garoppolo?
35:41
Would you rather have Daniel Jones or, or a not-seen-in-a-long-time Jimmy Garoppolo? That's a great question. I'll go Daniel Jones. I think I would. Like, I actually think that's a kinda easy answer- Yeah...
35:50
'cause I haven't seen Jimmy G in so long. Yep. Uh, does he still exist? Have we even seen him on camera in any of those Rams games? [laughs] I sure haven't. Like, I never see him.
35:57
Uh, JasonH11, "So Bye DeLaune's going to Shadow Creek tonight. Minus 250 he's got the Vegas flu tomorrow." Oh, you're not the first to say that. Uh, John Blom, "Come on, man.
36:07
Gil and Kelly, Sabrina the Teenage Witch on CW? What do you think this is, LIV Golf?" [laughs] When did the, when did the S- CW, like, start, though? And the W- where would the WB go? I don't know.
36:20
Like, I don't remember this stuff. That, that's what I got confused about I don't know It was on TGIF with all those ones- Do you ever watch- And remember when that was on ABC?
36:27
Do you ever watch any shows on those networks back in the day? Like sorta, like some of this stuff, but like yeah, like I was young. What was your go-to show on- I have no idea. I, I don't know. Yeah.
36:37
Anyway, uh- Where, where was Saved by the Bell at? No, Saved by the Bell- Oh, dude... was different, dude. Saved by the Bell was awesome. Sav- Saved by the Bell was like when I was in school.
36:44
[laughs] And like Saturday mornings we would watch Saved by the Bell. I, I remember watch- I would watch it before school like every day. Oh. Tiffani Amber Thiessen, Elizabeth Berkley, and Lark Voorhies.
36:55
Wasn't that a part of TGIF though, like at some point? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know either. Del, Mind the Gap Radio, "Does the portal and the 12 team playoff dampen the rest of the bowls? They used to matter.
37:05
Today they seem an afterthought." Uh, 100%- Yes... uh, Mind the Gap, uh, it absolutely does dampen all this. And matter of fact, I even commented when we were talking about, "Oh, who's gonna make the 12 team playoff?"
37:18
We never talked about the other bowls to the fact that I, to the point where I was like, "Oh yeah, there are still bowls." Uh, to give you an idea- There's a lot...
37:26
me and Preston Johnson, Preston Johnson who now owns a soccer team [laughs], owns a, a league... Is it a League 1 or League 2? I can never remember. Soccer team in, uh, in, uh, England, Crawley.
37:37
We used to do college football bowl podcasts, me and him, all 39 or whatever it was at the time, and we would break down from a betting perspective every single bowl game 'cause they mattered.
37:48
Um, they, and in those days it was almost cute, right? It was almost adorable, like the, the things that we would talk about.
37:55
It's like, "Oh, well, you know, this coach took that job so it's the interim coach, and oh, this assistant coach is moving over there." Right, right.
38:02
"So I don't know if he's gonna be there," like the coordinators in other words. And like that was how...
38:07
And there was always a motivation thing, but, uh, think about it, the, the, in terms of moving around, the coaches was all we would talk about, we would talk about. And then
38:16
Leonard Fournette of LSU and Christian McCaffrey at Stanford one day decided they weren't gonna play in the bowl games. Mm-hmm. And that was kind of the first moment of, "Oh,
38:28
I'm surprised this hasn't happened more often, guys that are gonna go pro, why risk an injury?" So that was like the first level.
38:36
Now what you just pointed out obviously is the biggest thing, which is the transfer portal. In the transfer portal, these guys go into the portal before these bowl games.
38:43
You even had a team in Marshall that said, "You know what? We can't play in this bowl game. Uh, all our guys are bouncing, and so see you later. We gotta vacate."
38:53
And so [laughs] another team out of Louisiana Tech had to come in and play the bowl game instead of Marshall.
38:57
So it's, it's completely off the rails at this point, and yes, it's, I, I agree with you completely Mind the Gap to, to where your question is going.
39:05
I don't think it's, uh, I don't, it's not, it's not nearly as big of a deal. It, it is completely an afterthought. However, from a betting perspective,
39:14
still makes the money, it's, the money's still green, still proper currency, and so if there is an edge, one still wants to exploit it.
39:21
And I will tell you this, the, uh, the bowl game that was on the other night, the South Alabama, I forgot which directional Michigan, I believe it was Western Michigan that they were playing- South Central, yeah...
39:29
yesterday. Pardon me, uh, to the directional Michigan schools. Um,
39:34
but I liked, you know, there's one of these games where you're still like, "I still think South Alabama's conference is superior to the MAC, and so I'm going with South Alabama."
39:45
They only won d- they only won by seven points. They probably should've won by a lot more, and you could tell they were the better team as the game was going on.
39:51
We always say this about college football from the in-game perspective, bowls or not, that no sport reveals itself quicker than college football games do in terms of just if one team is vastly superior to the other, in terms of either defense not being able to stop the other, maybe there's in-game overs.
40:06
Well, in bowl season that becomes exacerbated, and tonight's game, segueing to that, um, is the Frisco Bowl. Um, for those who, uh, do the terrible thing and call San Francisco Frisco, this has nothing to do with that.
40:19
And by the way, if you ever go to San Francisco, never refer to it as Frisco. Do me a favor. Or San Fran Tom Brady, who you're supposed to be from the Bay Area, don't do that either.
40:27
But the Frisco Bowl, Frisco, Texas, it's Memphis and West Virginia, and this to me is lay the points with Memphis, which I did. I laid the four and a half with the Tigers.
40:38
Uh, Ryan Silverfield, their head coach, has a good bowl record. Uh, he's only lost once, and I think that was to Penn State several years ago. Hasn't lost a bowl game since.
40:47
They have a quarterback, um, who is a veteran quarterback.
40:51
I always love these bowl situations where you have a veteran quarterback who is, he's going to his hometown, it's his last year, he's going close to his hometown.
41:00
Um, they're, and he's playing against a defense in West Virginia that is 129th in EPA per pass, 131st in coverage. [laughs] That's not great. That is not good. That is not good. And so, um, I, I like Memphis today.
41:14
I, I, I l- I'm laying the points. It is a, a rare pre-flop if you will, a rare pre-flop bowl bet for me, but I am on Memphis in the Frisco Bowl.
41:23
And yeah, so despite the fact, and this is the thing with sports betting, despite the fact that it is, you know, kind of irrelevant, and yeah, like it does make you question your life that you're sitting here and watching this thing, I will be honest with you, but, um, money's money, and you know, that's the thing.
41:41
So, um, I'm on Memphis. Yeah, I think the- And, and, um, and pretty s- and pretty strongly. Seth Henigan, by the way, the quarterback that I'm referring to from Memphis.
41:48
The, I, the bowl season's gotten interesting 'cause I mean e- everything you just said i, is completely accurate, but it's still a, a, i- i- it's a, look, if we're gonna have all these vast changes and, and, and crazy changes during bowl season, before s- before bowl season, what?
42:02
It affects betting numbers. It affects betting m- numbers, it means that there is a, uh, there is a chance a- a- a- in a, a good, a, a good, uh, a betting opportunity for you to get involved with.
42:13
It's just you gotta be dialed in a- and make sure you're checking all this stuff. I mean, it was, I mean, what? Penn State yesterday, right? You got the Drew Allar quarterback, right?
42:20
He's saying he's gonna come back, so the backup goes and train, en- enters, enters the portal immediately. I mean, like that's a college football playoff team we're talking about.
42:28
So I, you just gotta be on, you gotta be a, on top of all this stuff. The Um, you know, when we were talking a little bit last week, it's like, hey, what is this?
42:36
Cam Ward and Shador Sanders, like, sound like they might play in bowl games? Why would they do that? Someone needs to hold them out. They shouldn't be doing that. Like, Ben brought it up.
42:45
I don't, you don't even know, you don't, you don't know how much of this is possibly tied to NIL deals too, right? Like, smart by schools- 100%...
42:52
if you, if you're working these NIL deals to try to get these kids to play in every possible bowl game that they could. Oh, NIL also in, in college basketball.
43:00
You know, again, I know a kid who at one point wa- you know, thinking, "Oh, you get a chance to, to play for a national championship," but then you're like, "Well, but the NIL money that I could get if I redshirt-" Mm-hmm...
43:13
uh, financially speaking, that's a better move, so maybe I should do that instead. Like, I mean, we have no idea. And by the way, we still don't quite know the amount of money that's being thrown around.
43:23
Correct, correct. I mean, that's the- And it's just- Like, when we talk about these N- this NIL, I know, NIL details, stuff like this, like we can't, we can only guess, right?
43:30
You can only guess 'cause you're not seeing what these deals are. Uh, Jason, Ice Cold Gambler, "Sean McVay a viable candidate for Coach of the Year? I mean, who had the Rams being any good this year?"
43:38
Uh, we've said this before, Coach of the Year this year- Uh, yeah... I mean, you can make a case for a quarter of the league's coaches. It's really, really [laughs] It's incredible.
43:47
Um, I do think Kevin O'Connell is the rightful favorite though at this point, because at some point your record is so cartoonish- Yeah... that you just can't get past it, and he's doing it with Sam Darnold.
43:58
So listen, in the end, Sean McVay is still doing it with Matthew Stafford. So, I mean, I, I still think Kevin O'Connell is the correct favorite.
44:07
Now, Drew was making the case off, off air that if Washington beats Philly, and he has a Dan Quinn bet, so he does it through that lens, he thinks Dan Quinn, Dan Quinn could actually be a serious candidate.
44:20
I'm not so sure about that. Uh, O'Connell to me should definitely be the short shot. I, uh, I'm sorry, it is. It's just tough to, it's tough not to laugh about it right now 'cause it is.
44:29
Me and you have been talking about this- Oh... for the past four, five, six weeks now, and it still holds true. There's so many guys with such great resume. I mean, Sean Payton has a great resume.
44:37
I think there's some guys further down the board too that n- are not out of it. What if, what if the Chiefs go 16 and one? I was just gonna bring that up.
44:44
And of course- What, what if it's without Mahomes for a game or two? Ah, Andy Reid back in play. Great point. What a, what a market. If only we had a voter coming up later in Mike Sandow. Oh, we do.
44:53
And we also have Nick Mackay from Bookie next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network.
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