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Dec 18, 2024
A Numbers Game | December 18, 2024 | Hour 2
A Numbers Game | December 18, 2024 | Hour 2
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44:59
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Transcript
0:00
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy. Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers.
0:10
Their fee is free unless they win. For more information, go to forthepeople.com/bestbets or dial #LAW, #529 from your cellphone. That's F-O-RThePeople.com/bestbets. This is a paid advertisement.
0:26
The numbers told the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Everybody taking a sip, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:44
This is Kelly Bidlin, everybody, fresh off his appearance at the showdown yesterday- Yeah... at Shadow Creek. Who was that old DJ? Shadows Stevens. Do you remember that? Oh, that was before your time. No, not at all.
0:54
Yeah. [laughs] Shadows Stevens. When DJs used to just make up names. Maybe that was his real name, I don't know. That was a badass name. Shadows Stevens. Yeah. At Shadow Creek yesterday.
1:02
Uh, coming up this hour, Jason Weingarten from Under A Cloud Of Smoke, see what he's betting on a little later on.
1:08
And then, uh, in studio, Gina Fiore, who's, uh, as I was mentioning earlier, one of the great stories of, of just in this industry, of just how someone finds their way into a life that perhaps they didn't, uh, anticipate getting into.
1:24
And, uh, she has, uh, won with her team, uh, that she used to be involved with, I don't think she's still involved, but we'll find out about that, uh, over $15 million. Whew. That's pretty good. $15 million
1:36
the team have won over y- over the years, of course, not talking about in one, in one shot.
1:40
Um, but, uh, started out as a, uh, dealer at a, a dealer at a, in a, in a casino, and then, uh, sort of segued to the other side, if you will, with advantage play just becoming her life.
1:52
Now she's over at Unabated with Jack and Rufus and all those guys. So, uh- Yeah, looking forward to that. Yeah. That'll be good. We'll, uh, we'll talk to her in studio as well.
1:59
Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback. This is from Kevin Ryan, "Gil, every Tuesday I eagerly await the three college, uh, picks from three-man weave.
2:07
Lots of great games tonight on the slate. You can only imagine my joy when Matt spits out Youngstown and calls it a day."
2:13
Well, Kevin Ryan @RoadKingKR, you know, that's somehow, sometimes that's how the cookie crumbles, and I think that's, uh, we prefer that with, uh, with some of our handicappers.
2:22
I don't think they have to force a three-pack. Yeah, you're also gonna get, I mean, with the th- the, the weavers, you're rarely gonna get the, uh, North Carolina minus five and a half- Yeah... or something like that.
2:33
But I, I appreciate the, uh, transparency that this is sort of, you know, the, uh, the lull before the conference storm. Yeah. And so he doesn't really love this. Kevin, stop screwing with my head, though.
2:43
It's Wednesday. Oh, right. He said Tuesday. [laughs] Yeah, there's that.
2:48
Uh, NewYorkMess16, "Scott, Gil, if your Survivor investment comes to fruition," oh, this is a great question, "will you be hanging a banner or calling Fezzik for his tailor's number?" [laughs] That's great.
2:59
Yeah, you gotta get a jacket, man. You gotta get a jacket. So, so this re- Scott and Fez...
3:02
this is in reference to the fact that Fezzik last year invested in what was, what ended up being one of the four folks who chopped at the end, uh, of Survivor, chopped the, the, uh, the pool prize last year.
3:16
And Fezzik, when they give the check to the winner, Fezzik goes on stage [laughs] I fucking, I can't even say it without laughing. It's too funny, man. Fezzik goes on stage with the winner as if it was his- [laughs]...
3:29
'cause Fezzik likes that picture with the check. So my answer to that is no, I will not go on stage. The second thing that he's referring to is, uh- Wait, he w- he was up there for the check presentation with that?
3:39
The ch- he took a picture with the check and with, also with the guy, right? Now, he was, he was not alone with the check, but he still was part of the check picture, you know, the big outsized check that you get.
3:47
Yeah, I'm going to Google. Sorry, I hope you find it. And then, and then the other thing that Fezzik did, and Will sort of gives him a pass on this, Fezzik ended up getting a jacket w- which is- Oh, oh, oh.
3:58
So he wasn't there on the, on the pr- presentation in the jacket. No, no, no. Why- Okay. Okay... s- No, no, no. He... But, but why? Does that make it better? He- I don't know. It would've been funnier.
4:07
[laughs] It would've been funnier.
4:08
But he took a picture with, yeah, with the check, and then he also purchased, like with full measurements, a jacket as [laughs] the thing is, Fezzik said, Fezzik's, uh, defense on the jacket thing, though, is he didn't know that's what he was getting into.
4:23
He didn't know he was g- that's what he was getting into? He didn't, he didn't know he was ha- he was purchasing it. He thought that- Oh...
4:28
they were just giving it to him, so he gave the measurements of the, of his, you know, of his shoulders and all that, and then, uh, they're like, "Okay, now it's whatever," how much ever they charged him.
4:38
[laughs] So he had to pay for the jacket. [laughs] So, so no to both. I'm not doing either. Wait, what do you mean? Like, the measurements of wa- w- that they put on the, the sign-up sheet?
4:45
So Fezzik assumed- Which I always thought was weird... Fezzik assumed as an investor that someone was coming around and also just being like, "Hey, you know, you won two. What are your, what are your," you know.
4:56
Oh, okay. "Are you a 40, a 42? What are you?" And, uh, Fezzik said, [laughs] and they were like, "Okay, here's how much you owe us." [laughs] That's great. That's awesome. But the picture, come on, man.
5:05
I do love the, for as much as we talk about how difficult Survivor is- Yeah...
5:09
nothing is better than when you do the sign up for Survivor every year, and they do have the option of whether you'd like to put your coat measurements in there or not. I know. I'm like, "Oh, yeah, yeah, totally.
5:18
Absolutely. I haven't gotten past week three in about four years- But-... but let me put my measurements down." [laughs] They're literally jinxing everybody participating. It's part of the gig.
5:26
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, it's time for Win Total Wednesdays. Are the guys looking over or under? It's another edition of Win Total Wednesday on a Numbers Game. [upbeat music] You know, Kelly Bidlin,
5:41
figuring out who the number one seed in the NFL, uh, in each conference is very difficult. It's hard. Hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy. If you're ever injured, you can check out Morgan & Morgan.
5:49
Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers. Submitting an injury claim with Morgan & Morgan is so easy.
5:58
If you're ever injured, you can check out Morgan & Morgan. Their fee is free unless they win. For more information, go to forthepeople.com/bestbets, or dial #LAW, that's #529 from your cellphone.
6:09
That's F-O-RThePeople.com/bestbets, or #LAW, #529 from your cell. This is a paid advertisement. Say advertisement or advertisement? Which way do you go?
6:20
Uh, advertisement, but it's pretty badass if you go advertisement It is pretty badass. That's pretty bad, but like- Advertisement... that's a well-traveled man right there. That is- [laughs] If you say advertisements...
6:29
it's a very, it's a worldly individual. I can't even say it. Advertisements. Advertisement. Advertisement. [laughs] So we're gonna do this for the rest of the hour. [laughs] Man. Can't we try to pronounce that word?
6:39
Like, uh, Cruz is just happy we nailed, we nailed the intro to this. Oh. Got it. We got it. Way to go, Bill. Morgan, Morgan, Morgan always flummoxes me. [laughs] Always get me.
6:47
All right, uh, we wanna start with the AFC, 'cause this is kind of the, I don't know if it's the more straightforward, but they, I mean, listen, with three games left in the NFL season, these are all kind of straightforward at this point.
6:57
So in the AFC, the Chiefs have a two-game lead in the standings over the Bills. Remember, the Chiefs are 13 and 1, for God's sake. Yep. Uh, Bills are 11 and three, Steelers are 10 and four.
7:09
I'm gonna take the Steelers off there, 'cause I don't think they're getting there.
7:12
I get it, schedule's not, you know, if you think they can beat the Ravens, maybe you think they could win out, but at 55 to one, I don't think there's a chance. I'm taking them off the board.
7:22
So this becomes a Chiefs versus Bills thing. Remember, the Bills own the tiebreaker about, uh, against the Ch- uh, against the Chiefs, 'cause they beat them head-to-head. Yep.
7:31
So the Bills would have to go three and O, right? Um- Which is very possible... which is very possible, 'cause it's New England, the Jets, and New England again. Yes. So let's assume three and O.
7:42
You know what they say about assuming. Makes you regret stuff. The, the Jets game is at home, and obviously a split with the Patriots. That's right. So they, uh, say they go three and O.
7:51
The Chiefs would have to go one and two. All right? Or if the Bills go two and one, and the Chiefs go O and three, that would work, too. But let's assume the Bills go three and O.
8:00
So that means that the Chiefs would have to figure out a way to win two out of their last three games, and they have a Patrick Mahomes question mark. Mm-hmm. So the problem is the price for me. Mm.
8:13
And so here's why I would say for me, I'm not playing it, because the price is, the Chiefs are minus 200, and the Bills are plus 165.
8:21
Do I think it's possible that if the Chiefs said, "You know what, Patrick, you need to rest. Come back for the Pittsburgh game, Christmas," do I think it's possible the Bills go three and O and the Chiefs one and two?
8:32
Yes. But plus 165 on the Bills is not sexy enough for me to play that. You? Uh, I think there possibly is a bet in this market for me up here. And I, and I wouldn't lay the minus 200. You? I'm intrigued. Okay. By which?
8:47
The Chiefs. The Chiefs at minus 200. The, the Chiefs. Yeah. I mean, but like you said, it's, you've got to lose two out of the three, but this is a, this is a monitor Mahomes all week situation, because- Yeah...
8:57
what doesn't make sense
8:59
when it comes to pricing in these markets is when I first typed this up yesterday, Gil, and we didn't have, uh, we didn't really know, right, that Mahomes was gonna be playing, doing anything this upcoming week.
9:11
We still don't know that, but dude was out on the practice field yesterday. He is, he is, the most underrated thing about Patrick Mahomes is how quickly that dude heals. It's incredible.
9:20
It, it's, and going back to what Jake said, I mean, the fact that it's both him and Geno, like, I, who was watching those games and saw those hits and thought those guys would be back this week?
9:30
And it looks like it could be both of them. But here's my point. That minus 200 has not changed at all in this market, whereas the point spread has completely flipped in that, w- in that Texans game for this week.
9:42
We've gone from two and a half point dogs to two and a half point favorites back with the Chiefs now. So the pricing alone i- is a little shaky to me.
9:50
I think this should probably be back to, I, you know, I wanna know when that minus 200 was set, right?
9:55
And I don't, I don't know exactly when it was, but I know it hasn't changed over the past 24 hours, so something's off with that.
10:01
I think this is, I'm gonna shop around in town, see if there's a better number, uh, than this. I'll do that. And if I, if I see Mahomes is going this week, yeah, I'm pulling the trigger on minus 200.
10:10
You know what the first thing I'm gonna do when I shop around? Does this market even exist in town? I think I've seen it up at Caesars, uh- Okay... Caesars and maybe MGM.
10:18
Because ladies and gentlemen, when Nevada gets sports betting- Whoo... this is going to be a heck of a place to live. Watch out. Uh, let's go to the NFC for a second.
10:25
Now this is a, uh, this is definitely a three-way tussle- Mm-hmm... between the Lions. I don't think I've ever used the word tussle on the show before. That was a good one. Lions, Eagles, Vikings. Lions are minus 110.
10:35
Now, remember, all three of these teams have the same record. They're all 12 and two. Lions and Vikings trying to sort out the NFC North at the same time. But for the number one seed, the Lions are minus 110.
10:48
Why are the Lions the favorite? Because the Lions have control of their own destiny against the Vikings, 'cause they play each other the last week of the season. Vikings also control their own destiny in the NFC North.
10:58
But the Lions also have the current tiebreaker if this were a, let's say this was a tie with the Eagles. They didn't play head-to-head.
11:05
Do you know what the s- the number two tiebreaker is for determining number one seed? Conference record, right? I thought it was conference record. You know it's not. That's number three. Really?
11:14
Uh, head-to-head is one, conference record is three, common opponents is two. The Lions would win on, on both anyway. For any tiebreaker, or just the number one seed?
11:23
Just for the, the breaking a conference tie between multiple teams. Okay, okay. Yeah. Um- I did not know that. Wow. At least that's how I read it. Either way, it doesn't matter.
11:31
The Lions win on both counts, 'cause the Lions conference lost to the Bills, which is out of conference. Eagles have lost both in conference.
11:38
And the, the, uh, Lions win the common opponents one anyway, because they've beaten the Packers twice. Eagles have only beaten them once. So the Lions are minus 110 for that reason. Eagles are plus 150, Vikings plus 440.
11:50
Do you want some Vikings at plus 440? No, and I, but I think that's the only one you can consider here. That's why I ask it that way.
11:57
And we, we, we hate to be those guys, but it's, it's rollover money lines with the, these other teams. Yeah, yeah. Right? Yeah. Mathematically, this does not work out. Yep.
12:05
But if you're interested, we just wanna be thorough, those markets exist. I don't love either, but you may. We'll come back. Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
12:13
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. In sports betting and trading, probability is the key to success.
12:29
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12:42
Don't miss the chance to gain the edge in your trading game today. That's bubbatrading.com/vsin, and use promo code VSIN500. Did I read the wrong one? I thought I had to read about Bubba. Uh, yeah. Okay.
12:59
Well, maybe I missed that one. Okay. Well, we'll get to the next one next time. [laughs] Yep. Yeah. Awkward. Next time. Next time. Awkward. Yeah, yeah. Uh, here's what Kelly and I were talking about off air.
13:10
What was your question? Repeat your question. I don't know. It was, it took me way too long to realize you were reading the wrong one. Yeah.
13:14
Uh, are you more shocked by Jameis getting benched or Kirk Cousins getting benched? I was more shocked by Cousins getting benched, but the reason you ask is because you, that you must think that sneaky, in a sneaky way,
13:30
that it's more shocking that Jameis got benched. I just feel like a bit of, I guess I feel like a bit of an idiot today. I, I... People were bringing up the DTR. Obviously he finished the game, obviously.
13:38
Like, but I, I really didn't think they'd go back to him. I didn't either. He looked so bad last year, I really didn't think there was- Well-... much of a reason.
13:44
Well, the reason that Cousins is more shocking is 'cause Atlanta can still make the playoffs. So to go to the rook, right? Yeah. Is the more risky play. No, no matter how badly Kirk Cousins has been playing this year.
13:54
I was gonna say, do you have your numbers you wanna go over? I do. I was gonna say, for God's sakes, I teased that a long time ago.
13:58
Could, 'cause the, the only thing with it, Gil, is the, I kinda get it from, uh, it feels like they've hung around with Cousins as long as they can, that it's just gotten to a desperation point. You gotta try anything.
14:08
Cousins mustered just, uh, 93 net passing yards against the Raiders the other night. He leads the league in interceptions over the last five games with nine, and has fumbled the ball five times in that stretch.
14:18
Is that good? He ranks seven. Now listen to this.
14:21
First nine games of the year when they were six and three, he ranks seventh among 37 qualifying quarterbacks in expected points added per drop back, 0.15, during those nine weeks when everything went well.
14:34
Since then, Cousins' expected points added per drop back have gone from 0.15 to minus 0.14, plummeting to 30th among 32 qualified quarterbacks, and he ranks dead last in interception percentage at 5.7%.
14:50
Now, here's the thing. No team runs less play action than the Falcons do with Cousins in there, and he has had a grand total of three scrambles this season. Three. It's like finding the Yeti when it happens. Yeah.
15:04
Uh, success rate counts, uh, uh, here's the thing. Success rate counts how well they move the ball. Expected points measures what's happening on those plays.
15:12
Their success rate actually, to your point earlier, actually stayed okay. So success rate is like, are you still getting, you know, you still moving the chains? Are you ahead of schedule with the chains?
15:24
That they somehow still did well. Um, but obviously Raheem Morris and staff feel, you know, that's the end of that. We've gone as far as we can with Kirk Cousins. Which brings us, by the way, to our, to our tweets here.
15:36
We get tweets of being in the book. Mariners Geek, "Seeking advice. He's in a survivor." He says, "Atlanta for this week or the final week?" [laughs] I'm like, "Dude, I don't know. Can you avoid them?" [laughs] Yeah.
15:46
I don't know how to answer that. Who do they, who do they have the final week? So let's get y'all to look that up. Uh- I mean, I, I think I would really avoid them this week. I mean, it's his first start.
15:56
Jason- I made a bet in that game, though. I just made a bet. You did? Yeah, I bet the under. Okay.
16:00
Like I, I, I don't really, I'm kind of surprised more under money didn't come in yesterday when that news came out, but I just saw it light, the board lighting up a bit. I got under 42.
16:08
By the way, if there, if there is a college football play today, I'm making it as the under in the Boca Raton Bowl. Okay. Like it. Uh, Panthers final week for the Falcons, so yeah, I mean, I would probably wait, I guess.
16:18
Uh, Jason Stark, "Shadow Stevens for the block. I remember him from his Hollywood Squares fame in the '80s, LOL." [laughs] DGen, Southern Gen, "Frisco, Texas, great place to raise a family if you can afford it.
16:28
San Francisco, great place to raise hell if you can afford it." Hey, stop it. Totally Driven Golf, "Hey Gil, did you happen to do any nickel and diming with Jake for that sliver?" Nope. Not at all. Face value.
16:39
Not a discount, not at a premium. Chris Heath at, "What number does one take Cal? The thing has gone to six and a half now." Is that true? Oh, it's moved six and a half, you mean, through the zero. Yeah. Hmm. Yeah.
16:51
Still, six and a half points, that's huge. Yeah, three and a half they still have there. Um, yeah, no kidding, right? It is tempting, but, um, I don't know. I have no, I have no preflop conviction.
17:00
There's obviously a number where I would take Cal, but I'm not looking to, uh, you know, I'm not actively monitoring it to say, "Oh, I wanna take Cal at this number," kind of thing.
17:07
Ladies and gentlemen, comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern California, you can follow him on Twitter @spreadapedia. It's the great Jason Weingarten, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
17:16
How you doing, Jason? Pretty good. How's it going? Welcome back. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it very much. Are you betting bowls? Uh, a little bit. I, uh, I didn't bet the game, uh, last night.
17:27
Then today we have the, uh, the LA Bowl, actually.
17:31
So I guess I can go to that game if I want, but I really, Cal-UNLV at SoFi Stadium, it's not really getting me in my car to, to, you know, fight traffic to go to that game. [laughs] Might just watch it on TV.
17:45
Um, you know, I see the first baseball season win totals are trickling out. Do you jump on these as soon as they get out? No. Um, I haven't, I haven't very, very much looked at, at baseball or win totals.
18:00
Uh, still, still too early. It's, you know, like especially tying up money, it's not worth it if you're gonna do it at 500 bucks a pop or something.
18:08
Let me just give you one, 'cause Eric Berg at, uh, Bets by Berg tweeted in a, a screenshot of the Chicago White Sox, who, uh, flirted with the worst record of all time this past year.
18:18
Guess what their season win total is. 70? 68? 65? What, what we got? [laughs] 49 and a half 49 and a half? Oh, wow. [laughs] Let me ask like- That's like historic. Is that, is that the lowest we've ever seen basically?
18:33
Like- I, I believe that's the lowest we've ever seen. Yes. Does that change your mind? Yeah. Would you bet over on that s- you know, without, without any consideration beyond that? No. Just the number?
18:42
Just 'cause I don't feel like tying up the money on the White Sox till September. I mean, it's December right now. I don't, I don't wanna think about the White Sox for nine months.
18:50
That's- [laughs] I have to look at that ticket every time I open an account and think about what I'm doing with my money and my life? No way.
18:58
This is the season-long version of, of what you used to say when your model used to show value on a really bad MLB team at, like, plus 320, and you're like, "Do I really wanna spend the next four hours of my life hoping that this gets home?"
19:10
That's the season-long version. Yeah, I'm not, I mean, I'm not even saying it's a bad bet. I just don't wanna think about it for- Yeah, yeah. No, I hear you... that. Life considerations happen.
19:18
So a, a Fox Sports article tell- Yeah... tells me that last year's A's win total of 56 and a half was the lowest since 1990. Yeah, 49 and a half, we've never seen the number four as the starter for any of these, ever.
19:33
But that's how bad this franchise is. We have a, we have a White Sox, uh, front office listeners who kn- uh, listener whose name I will not mention- Mm-hmm... who stops by all the time. Um, okay, let's go to NFL awards.
19:46
We had Mike Sando on, we had Aaron Schatz on. Both of them, and they both allow for the fact there's three weeks left and their minds could change, but both of them are leaning Lamar. Do you see it that way? No.
19:59
Uh, Bill Barnwell had a pretty good article about Allen and Lamar and everything.
20:05
Uh, he said actually he thinks Saquon Barkley still has the best shot of knocking off Josh Allen, if anyone's gonna knock him off, and I sort of agree.
20:14
I think at this point it's, it's pretty clearly, uh, clearly gonna be Josh Allen. Not to say that Lamar doesn't have a case. You know, if you wanna vote for him, I'm, I'm not even saying you're wrong.
20:24
I'm, I'm not even saying Saquon's out yet either. I, I do think my, uh, Jared Goff tickets were basically worthless the whole time, but, um- Hmm...
20:34
you know, I, I, I think Allen's finally, finally gonna win it, and I don't know.
20:37
I mean, like, it's, it's kind of unfortunate that you can't give it to Lamar and Allen 'cause someone has to lose, but, uh, unless something crazy happens, Josh Allen's definitely seized the lead here.
20:49
And let me just ask this, 'cause we haven't talked about this market in a long time, but at risk of annoying Jason, Comeback Player of the Year, was it you who was saying this yesterday, Kelly, that there, there's not enough zeros that should go behind Joe Burrow at this point?
21:01
Oh, well, okay, what I was saying was if we, if we knew at all, if we were confident at all how, how the voters looked at this award, 'cause we're still unsure about that- Yeah...
21:09
or at least I am, I would think they, I would think, uh, that Joe Burrow would have this completely locked up. I think it's too easy with him coming back, the numbers that he's put up.
21:18
To want to give him an award and to give him that is too easy, but I have no confidence in what these voters will do with this award. What do you think, Jason? Yeah, it's, it's so tough.
21:27
I mean, I, I basically always try to focus on the guys who are actually injured and, and especially with the guidance from the AP this year that, that, you know, to kinda take it more seriously.
21:37
Um, I guess Burrow is coming back from an injury or something, you know? Uh- [laughs] It's just so, it's just so hard 'cause every time we go, go over this, I see Damar Hamlin. Yeah.
21:49
And I'm like, "We're not giving it to Damar Hamlin?" Like, this is what the award was meant for, was, was if, if Damar Hamlin's not winning this award, I don't know who is.
21:58
And again, he probably should've won it last year, not this year. Um, so really your guess is as good as mine. I know Tim Patrick's been getting some love lately. Um, I, I'm pro-chaos in this market.
22:11
I wanna see the biggest tickets. I wanna see people tweet the, the biggest odds in this market. So Joe Burrow's a boring winner to me here. I'm pro-chaos too.
22:20
I want Hamlin to win, and I don't have a ticket on him, but that's who I'd like to see win. Yeah. I have a small ticket on him. I wish I had a lot more.
22:26
And then can I just say for, uh, Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bonito. It's very rare that a guy pops out of nowhere that I actually have to look up and be like, "Where'd this guy come from? What's his deal?"
22:37
Um, he's third in the, the Defensive Player of the Year, and, uh, the only person in front of him is his teammate and then T.J. Watt all of a sudden, so a pretty interesting race there.
22:47
The, the, the Broncos kinda coming up everywhere. I bet the Broncos plus three, two and a half, still good for Thursday night. Trying to get that boat out. Thursday night against the, uh, Chargers from Jason.
22:58
Jason, thank you. Appreciate it, man. Thanks for having me. Sorry I can't get the camera working today. [laughs] That's, that's all right. Next time. Jason Weingarten, everybody. Gina Fiore on the other side in studio.
23:09
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:20
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23:26
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23:34
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23:44
Visit vsin.com/jansanity and let the Jansanity begin. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated. This is from Ice Cold Gambler, uh, "Let's get Sporer on ASAP. We need baseball talk.
23:57
I'll be fading the Angels and would like to hear his thoughts. White Sox 49 and a half wins. Oh my God, I think Tennessee could win 50 games in MLB. If you can't win 50 games, you should be, dot, dot, dot," he says.
24:08
I think he's saying relegated there. Uh, and then, uh, Torch D, "VSiN's own Adam Shine voting for Sam Darnold for Comeback Player of the Year."
24:17
So, uh, Adam Shine, who we hope to have on the show, uh, Kelly will grab Adam Shine, who of course is a VSiN host here weekdays.
24:24
We'll get him on and get all of his awards thoughts as well, in addition to those we've gotten from Mike Sando and from Aaron Schatz.
24:30
Uh, it is my pleasure to have, uh, this lady on for the first time ever on this show, uh, kind enough to come in studio, and as I was saying earlier, her story is probably about as good as anybody's in this industry.
24:43
I would say Jeff Ma being part of the MIT blackjack team is probably the coolest story of them all, but, uh, Gina Fiore's is right up there.
24:50
She was a, uh, dealer in a casino, and, uh, one day got the inspiration to Go to the other side, if you will. Count cards.
24:58
That led to a, uh, a life of looking at hole carding and had a team of d- of, uh, players with her.
25:06
She ended up winning, uh, that team did, over $15 million over time, uh, with all kinds of other advantage play as well, and she's got a whole bunch going on right now, including a master class. We'll get to that.
25:18
She's got a calendar. Kind enough to join us in the studio, by the way, she works for Unabated as well, it's Gina Fiore. How you doing? Hey, good. Yeah. Thanks for coming in. Yeah, for sure. Uh- How are you?
25:26
I'm doing very well. Did I accurately describe? You did. You did. How did you... Well, let's just start there for a second- Yeah... before we get into all this stuff. What was the, sort of what was the epiphany for you?
25:37
You're, you're a young lady. You're, you're- Yeah... just a employee in a casino, and one day you decided, "Yeah, there's a better way here." It, I had an epiphany. I had a plot point [laughs] in my life.
25:48
Uh, there was a dealer. I was dealing on the strip, and there was a dealer who quit his job, and I asked him, you know, "What are you gonna do? Did you get another job?" And he said, "I'm going..."
25:59
Or he said exactly, "I'm going to play poker in Laughlin and count cards." That was exactly what he said.
26:05
And at that moment I was like, count- 'cause I had heard of counting cards, I was like, "You can do this for a living? This is a thing that you can do?" And I did not like dealing blackjack. Were you...
26:14
Oh, 'cause you were searching for a career at that point- I wasn't... a long-term? I wasn't. When I was, uh, in high school my mom was a dealer at The Horseshoe,
26:22
and she saw people getting kicked out for card counting, and she told me that she thought I'd be good at it, and I'm in high school, because I was okay at math.
26:29
And so I remembered this thing she said, and then I hear this guy saying he's going to quit to count cards for a living, and I don't know what happened in my brain, but that was it. I was just obsessed.
26:38
So I went downtown and got some books and taught myself. Uh. And, and studied it. I studied it obsessively. I was obsessed. Really? Yeah.
26:47
And at what point then, how long did you do that before you discovered hole carding? God, I was counting cards- And explain to folks, by the way- Yeah... what, what hole carding is, for those who might not know.
26:55
So hole carding is, I mean, the dealer's dealing, right? And you, you shouldn't see their bottom card if, if they're doing their procedure correctly.
27:03
And hole carding is just, they're not doing their procedure correctly, or the machine is just, uh, at, uh, stationed in a way that when they bring the cards out you can just see the hole card.
27:14
And it's not illegal, it's just something that is there for everyone to see, and once you know what to look for you're just like, "Oh, there's a card, and now I have a huge edge."
27:23
And you're not doing anything to get the dealer to show you. You know, you're just sitting there. It's like, "Oh, I can see this thing." Just their mechanics, in other words. Just, yeah, yeah.
27:31
What, so what would you estimate is the ratio of dealers out there, one in how many were you able to discover, "Oh, this is someone whose hole card I can see"? Yeah, I would say one in, one in 300, one in 250.
27:46
It's a lot of scouting. It is a lot of walking around. So your life is just going around casinos, seeing and, and spotting someone, and then just milking that.
27:54
For many years I had no other life than scouting casinos, and there were other opportunities, it wasn't just that. But yeah, I'd had no social life for, I don't know, a decade at least. A decade. Yeah.
28:08
So at, okay, so let me just follow, follow suit here. So then at some point you went from Gina solo to a team. Did you make the assessment that your profile, right? Mm-hmm.
28:23
Meaning your, w- the profile as the casino sees you- Mm-hmm... uh, was not going to be as lucrative as if you, uh, recruited others? Uh, definitely.
28:34
Me being me, I can get away, I could've gotten away, and I don't do this anymore, I, I just bet sports, but I could've gotten away with a lot because,
28:43
and just honestly, floormen or people working in the casino don't look at me and think I'm sharp. They just don't.
28:49
So I can just, you know, see the hole card, bet my table minimum, and signal someone else, my, you know, Asian woman or my older white guy wearing a Tommy Bahama.
28:59
Like, I can signal someone else to bet the money, and so- Mm-hmm... that keeps my profile, you know, very, very low, very anonymous. And people should know, I, I feel the need to interject.
29:09
People should know you are not doing the profiling there. You are actually reflecting what a casino actually has as a prejudice. Right. R- oh- Yeah... yeah, as far as... And, and I would play it up, you know?
29:19
My best thing, I would get like a, a 13, and then I'd hit and I'd get a three, and I'd say like, "40." [laughs] And it gets them every time. It's- It gets them every time. I see.
29:28
[laughs] And they're just like, "There's no way that this person is doing anything," so they just wouldn't, wouldn't assume that I was sharp.
29:36
Uh, it's an amazing story because it becomes so, so big and so lucrative or, or, uh, you know, that you end up not only doing it, you know, by ground, you end up flying different places, you end up having an experience.
29:51
I was doing...
29:51
You, by the way, the easiest person to research in the world is Gina because there's so much on her, and we'll get to all the stuff that's available, including a documentary on her, on her life as a gambler.
30:01
But one, one, you know, famous incident is y'all won a bunch of money- Mm-hmm... in Puerto Rico, I believe it was. Mm-hmm. In Puerto Rico. You fly back. Or well, like, go through the circumstance. How did it happen?
30:12
Yeah, so we were on a... I was with one partner, and we were on a trip, well, a work trip, and we went from Las Vegas to Atlantic City to Puerto Rico, and we're playing blackjack everywhere.
30:23
So in Puerto Rico I just had a random bag search from TSA, and they saw that I had $30,000 in my bag. And they said, and it was a lot, and they were like, you know, "What is this?" And I said I was playing in the casino.
30:34
And they said, uh, "Don't be surprised if someone in Las Vegas stops to talk to you, or stops you to talk to you."
30:42
Okay, so I'm, I'm on the plane taking off and I send a text to s- to another partner to call, uh, Bob Nercessian, who is a- Big time...
30:51
a big time, uh, civil attorney for a lot of gamblers when gamblers' rights are, you know- Gambler's riot. So, uh, we had a stop in Atlanta.
31:00
We get off the plane, and two minutes later we're surrounded by DEA agents, just surrounded, and they've got the dogs, and you've got the, uh, the DEA agents, like, uh, look like travelers.
31:12
You know, they got the backpacks and they're- Sure... they look like civilians. And so they surround us, and they check our bags, and my partner had another 65K, so we have, like, $97,000. "Where'd you get the money?
31:22
What were you doing?" And so we were ver- I was very honest. We were gambling, and I used to keep, uh, records, like, just perfect records. I was like, "We were in Puerto Rico.
31:31
We were in Las Vegas," or sorry, we were in Atlantic City, like, you know, everything. They were gonna take our money no matter what. They said the dog got a hit. I'm like, "The dog is sleeping.
31:40
The dog- [laughs] Nothing happened to the dog. The dog got a hit. The dog is unaware. They take- yeah, they take- Yeah... all of our money, 97,000. I mean, every dollar we had, just took it all. So we flew to Las Vegas.
31:50
Bob was at the gate waiting for us, and then it was, uh... He filed something immediately to get the money back, you know, on our tax returns, professional gambler.
31:58
I've been filing as a pro for two decades at this point.
32:03
So yeah, so we filed something, and they wouldn't give the money back, and it was eight months before we got the money back, and it was the, the eighth month they said, "If you sign something that you won't sue, we'll give you the money back."
32:13
And I was like, "Absolutely not." Like, "It's not happening." Good for you. Yeah, like, you violated our rights. So we got the money back.
32:19
'Cause you had had some previous experience here in town where you regretted not going after it, I remember hearing, yeah. Right, I was backroomed in a casino- Yeah...
32:26
for four hours, and the, I called, I was the one who called the police. The police came in, kept us there for four hours, and taunted us. And so I- How?... I did sue.
32:35
I sued the casino and I sued, uh, Metro, and we ended up settling. So here we were, and I wanted to prove a point, because civil asset forfeiture is a big deal. It's a huge deal.
32:44
Like, they will take your money and make you prove that it's yours. So we ended up suing the DEA agent, um, for, because you can't sue the DEA, and we sued him in Georgia.
32:55
I'm sorry, we sued him in Nevada, where we felt, uh, there was, Nevada had the burden. We couldn't spend our money here.
33:02
The crime happened in Georgia, but we felt Nevada was the, the state that experienced this, this outcome.
33:09
And so it was appeal, appeal, appeal, and the Ninth Circuit said, "Yeah, you can sue in Nevada," because he wanted us to sue in Georgia. So he appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States, and they took the case.
33:20
Wow. Yeah. It was eight years of appeals and back and forth. So we went to SCOTUS in 2014, and the argument was over jurisdiction, where can you sue if a crime happens, and we lost.
33:34
And so he won, and we had to sue in Georgia, but the thing is, it set a precedent in this country for jurisdiction, for personal jurisdiction.
33:42
So now I've run into a lot of lawyers who say, "Oh, we had to study your SCOTUS case." That i- that alone is awesome. It's, it is, but we wanted to set a precedent. It wasn't about the money.
33:51
We weren't going to make money. It was a precedent to say, "Not only can you not do this, but we have to make it hard for you. Like, you can't do this anywhere. Now we have to fight you over there.
34:00
Like, we should be able to fight you in our home state." Hold that thought. Yeah. We'll continue this, but I wanna get to all the things that, uh, you're doing, including MasterClass.
34:07
Gina Fiore on A Numbers Game, coming back. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Coming up at the top of the hour after A Numbers Game, Money Moves with Stormy Bonatony.
34:23
Stormy's got Patrick Maher in with her today, or not in, but on the show with her today from 9:00 to 2:00 Eastern, followed by Prop Points with Jon Hansen from 2:00 to 3:00, and then Adam Shine with Make It Rain.
34:33
Awards voter Adam Shine from 3:00 to 4:00 right here on VSiN, the sports betting network. Uh, which brings us to our gbank Best Bets of the Day. Gbank, the official bank of VSiN. Um, a bevy from, uh, guests.
34:46
My only one is, uh, I'm still on the Commanders. The Commodores plus three and a half versus the Eagles on Sunday. I got off that Browns bet. Uh, Kelly is still on the Browns bet, but he's trying to get off it as well.
34:57
He's got the Browns plus seven versus the Bengals. DTR going for the Browns behind center, and then he's on the Giants, Falcons under 42, Michael Penix getting his first start for the Atlanta Falcons. JBT was on earlier.
35:09
He's got, uh, one in the NFL, one in college football. College football, he's on Tennessee, Ohio State, the under 47 and a half as the college football playoff begin, and he's on the Panthers.
35:18
He has been on the Panthers for six straight weeks. Uh, he is, uh, riding them again plus four and a half. He was off them this past week. He faded them this past week.
35:26
Matt Cox, Matty Cox with only one college basketball play. He's on Youngstown State plus the seven points. Uh, and then Jason Weingarten, on his way out, he did the old Columbo bet. He's like, "Oh yeah, one more thing."
35:38
Uh, he is on the, uh, Denver Broncos taking the three points against the Los Angeles Chargers. Gbank, once again, the official bank of VSiN each and every day on the show, each and every show on the network.
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36:11
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36:19
Scale Alexander, uh, Gina Fiore kind enough to hang with us for a, a second segment here on A Numbers Game. Just wanna wrap up, uh, your story- Yeah... because you have so mu- we have so much else to talk about.
36:30
Ultimately, though, they won? You said you settled, I thought. Uh, so we settled versus Metro and the casino- Gotcha... that backroomed me.
36:39
Um, as far as, uh, the DEA agent, they won jurisdiction, so now if we wanted to take it further, we had to sue in Georgia. And now it's eight years after, you know, we had our money seized, and
36:54
I do regret this, but we let it go. It's like, if we sued in Georgia, it would be a whole thing. At some point you have to though, right? Yeah. Like, you have to move on.
37:03
It was, it was just to prove a point It was just to prove a point and, and yeah, we let it, we let it go Um, and then, okay, this begs the question then.
37:12
By the way, your, your entire, this entire sort of life that Gina led, uh, as an advantage player is represented in the documentary which is called? Mis- It's called Miss Brown. Miss Brown. Yeah.
37:24
Which is the name you took all these years- Yeah... when you were doing this? Yeah, that's the name I used on, like, blackjack message boards, and then in the blackjack world they still call me Miss Brown or MB.
37:35
That's how people refer to me. By the way, Gina's, uh, Twitter is o- @RXGambel, like the prescription, RXGambel. There's a shot of, uh, Miss Brown Winning Against the House, uh, the documentary based on her life.
37:48
Now, is that... Can I ask you a question? Mm. Is that you or the actress that's plays you? No, that's... So that's me. That's you. Yeah. Okay, 'cause the actress who plays you favors you, right?
37:58
Like, you guys look quite alike. Yeah, they f- they, uh, casted that amazingly. Yeah. Yeah. What is her name? Her name's Christina, the actress. Christina, okay. Christina Braah.
38:07
So if people wanna get that, what's the easiest way for them? To go to your Twitter maybe? Is there a link there to that? No, so it's a series by Meadowlark Media. Okay.
38:14
They made a series called Sports Explains the World. I think it's 16 episodes, and it was sort of like a 30 for 30 sort of thing. Um, you know, the president of ESPN went over to Meadowlark Media.
38:28
So he created the series- John Skipper? Yes, exactly. Yeah. Mm-hmm. He created the series. They're all done. They're all in the can. I've seen a couple of them. They're great, and they haven't sold the series yet.
38:39
So you, you can see the trailer online, there's a link on my website, but you can't watch the documentary unfortunately. Can't watch the documentary? No. Okay. No. All right. Not yet, not yet. All right.
38:50
Well, there are some things you can get here. Um, well, we'll get to that. How did you transition then? 'Cause everybody who listens to this show bets on sports, some also bet in the casino- Mm-hmm...
38:59
uh, on the, in the gaming tables. Uh, how did you transition to sports betting? What was, what was the point in your life where you're like, "You know what? This was a, a great thing in my life- Mm-hmm...
39:09
um, but I don't wanna do this anymore"? Yeah.
39:11
Um, it's, I have always had friends who bet professionally because there is crossover, but I was too busy doing other things, and then I was pregnant, and I didn't wanna be in the casino for the secondhand smoke.
39:23
I just didn't wanna be around it. I actually got a mask at the time, and I was the only person, uh, 'cause it was not- You were that person. It was- Yeah... it was that. Yeah. It was before COVID.
39:33
So, um, so I was, I was betting someone else's stuff at home while I was pregnant, and then I just...
39:39
When you're in the casino playing, you're scouting for new opportunities, like always, not just counting or hole carding. You're looking for everything.
39:45
So I was on these websites, 2015, so this was all, like, you know, bookie stuff, and I'm looking at every betting menu, and I'm just trying to find things.
39:54
And so I found a lot of live baseball that was off, it was just severely off from Pinnacle. So I would just sit there pregnant [laughs]
40:01
betting live baseball totals and, uh, and yeah, it lasted for two seasons, so when I was pregnant and then when my son was a baby.
40:09
So I did that for two seasons, and it introduced me- You, you're holding your son, betting baseball. Sometimes I was holding my son betting baseball. I love that. Yeah. [laughs] It's awesome. Yeah.
40:18
Um, and so you have do- you have been a sports bettor now for- Mm... all these years. Mm-hmm. And you end up, we all know Captain Jack and Rufus, our buddies- Mm-hmm... uh, who co-founded Unabated. Mm-hmm.
40:29
And you work at Unabated now. Yeah, I, I do, uh, some content for Unabated. I, I joined the site because I've been friends with Captain Jack for over 20 years. Wow.
40:39
We were on the blackjack message boards together, and if you know Captain Jack, he's on Twitter or he's on Discord, the Unabated Discord, answering everyone's questions. He's amazing. He's amazing.
40:49
He was doing this 20 years ago. He's the commissioner of sports betting. Yes. You had a blackjack question 20 years ago, and he was, you know, on the blackjack forums answering questions. It's in his bio.
40:57
Uh, it said he was the commissioner of sports betting. Yeah. Yeah, it is. That's right. Yeah. But, um, so I joined Unabated with the idea that I have a lot of knowledge about gambling, like I do.
41:06
I, I, I understand the mechanics of gambling, and I thought I could explain sports betting to, uh, an audience that's less educated than who Captain Jack speaks to. Gotcha.
41:20
Because he kinda speaks to the middle of the road gambler and above, or sports bettor, and I thought, "I can get to those people who, who don't know much." And you do a podcast now. I was doing a podcast for Unabated.
41:32
Um, yeah, and I wrote some articles and, yeah, I kinda, I've been bouncing around. We're, we're sort of trying to figure out what the best, the best way to reach those bettors is.
41:45
Well, you know, when I told Bill Ady, who just walked in here- Yeah... when I told him you were coming on, his, his immediate response was, "She's a great writer." Mm. Which by the way- Thanks...
41:53
at ginafiore.com- Mm-hmm... your blog, it is really, you really are a great writer. Oh, thanks. So that's a, that's a huge thing that people can also resource from you. So, um, here's the thing then.
42:06
You are now doing a masterclass. Yeah.
42:08
People know this from, you may know it if, like, you have a Facebook, it pops, Facebook account, it'll pop up, you know, Malcolm Gladwell on writing or, uh, Michael Lewis on storytelling. Mm-hmm.
42:17
You are doing, along with a bunch of others, including Rufus and Jack- Mm-hmm... um, a masterclass on sports betting. Right. How is, how great has that experience been?
42:26
It was a, it was a great experience, but let's be honest, I've been, you know, betting for nine years, so I'm not gonna call myself a master sports bettor. But that wasn't what they did.
42:37
They did an hour and 10 minutes, and it's, it really is the basics. It's really like, people are just losing so much money. So much. They're getting crushed. So it was a very basic, this is the mechanics of sports books.
42:51
This is how it works. This is price discovery. This is the vig. This is a money line. It starts with that. This is so...
42:58
But by the way, this is so great 'cause there's so many bettors who are new, new-ish, and by the way, even for, for all of us, right? Like, all of this stuff is great too, but I wish when we started sports betting- Mm...
43:08
so many decades ago, I wish there was a resource like this. Yeah, yeah. W- and they can go to RXGambel and, and access Masterclass?
43:15
So they can, they can go to my website, ginafiore.com, and there's a link for Masterclass, or you can just go to masterclass.com and I think- Okay... they advertise it. And, uh,
43:24
and yeah, it's not, uh, I wanna say it's not, it's not for the professional. You know all this stuff, but even the bettor that's maybe been betting a year, they might not understand price discovery. They just might not.
43:36
Um, you know what? I actually had the thought that the audience that watches Masterclass would probably watch this and send it to their 22-year-old son- Yes, yes...
43:46
who's been betting, like, eight leg parlays during Thanksgiving, and they might just send it over and be like, "Oh, you might wanna watch this." One last thing before we go 'cause we only have a minute. Mm-hmm.
43:54
You have a calendar. I do, I do. I have a calendar. 365 Days of Gambling. Yes. Uh, what was the epiphany here? You just decided, you know, you were looking for one and you- I was... and it didn't exist.
44:03
I was looking for one last year and it didn't exist, and I've, I'm doing a lot of creative projects, like the documentary. I'm writing a TV show, a, a drama, and, uh, and nothing, everything's slow.
44:15
So I knew I could do this. I'm like, "I can do a calendar. I can do this." So I did this calendar, and it's got 365 different things, casino history, uh, gambling trivia, quotes. I'll give, I'll give an example.
44:26
Uh, "August 26th, 2025, United States President Richard Nixon used poker winnings to help finance his first congressional campaign." Yeah. And other tidbits like that, one for every day of the year.
44:35
Yeah, and I, I verified everything three times, so yeah. How long did it take you to do it? It took me so long. [laughs] It took me dozens of hours. Oh, boy. It took me a very long time. She's shaking when she said that.
44:46
Yeah. Uh, and they can go to? They can go to my website and there's a link, or they can go to 365daysofgambling.com, so either my website or 365- All right... Days of Gambling. Stormy's next. Enjoy from Visa V-
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