Transcript 0:01 The numbers told us. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. 0:09 Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins alongside. 0:20 Danny in for, uh, the vacationing Kelly Bidlin. What's your Twitter right there, uh, Danny? DHiggins_4? DHiggins_4. Was that your uniform number? Uh, I've, I've been number four since, uh, um, uh, middle school. 0:32 Yeah, so I've worn that. Let me guess, 'cause you were a big fan of Joe Dumars of the Detroit Pistons. Actually no, Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Brett Favre. Okay. Yes. Danny played pro football in, uh, in Europe? 0:40 Yeah, Denmark. Okay. In Denmark. Yes, I've been four since high school, college, and afterwards. I like it. Yeah. 0:48 Jeff Schwartz on Twitter, not that Jeff Schwartz, but, uh, Jeff with a J says, "The Bears keep pulling these lucky wins out of thin air. The new pope is from Chicago. Coincidence?" 0:57 That's what some of us were saying about the Rams losing when Puka got all frisky with you know what. Shabbat Shalom, Puka. Michael Harrison, "Gil, DeMeco Ryans is 150 to 1 to win Coach of the Year. 1:07 Started the season 0 and 3, beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills with Davis Mills. If they win out, it'll be nine straight and there's still nine other guys that are more likely to win it. Crazy year." 1:16 You're right, Michael. You could make a case for DeMeco also. You absolutely can. Lot of teams, it's, it's just the most upside down year in the NFL ever. 1:25 The, the most wacky year of all, where teams with very low expectations or, or mediocre expectations exceeded them in grand fashion, and the Coach of the Year market follows suit with all the possibilities. 1:36 JasonH11, "I know you hinted towards the motivation issue, but please whatever you do, do not bet my G-Men against the Raiders. Think of this as your Hanukkah present." 1:43 Well, no, it's precisely the motivation issue that makes me not wanna bet it. 1:47 And it's also just a life thing where, like, if you take a step back, I know we're doing guessing lines, and by the way, I bet the Chargers and the Panthers again for the second straight week, going back to the well on those two teams, have their victories, and I don't see a Niners line, but I will bet the Niners if it, if it remains four against the Colts probably, as my three bets for guessing lines this week. 2:04 But I, in the end, the Giants and the Raiders, Jason and, and Danny Higgins, is sort of like w- it's a what has my life come to moment where you have to say to yourself, "W- am I really gonna have a bet on this game?" 2:15 Yeah. No, I can't do it. Um, Silent Mike D, "Life hack, how to avoid VSiN commercials. 2:20 No commercials except VSiN and Circo on the Watch app, so just listen to the Watch app, but still patronize those wonderful VSiN sponsors." Schizo360, "Okay, Gil, I'm gonna cash out, and if Nick ends up winning [laughs] 2:32 , if Nick ends up winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Nick Elamawari, let the Numbers Game slander begin. Just kidding. Love you guys. Happy holidays to you and the family." Thank you. 2:40 Uh, Fred Leonards, "You were thinking Cards plus seven. Can't imagine how they slipped your mind." Oh, yeah, exactly. I'm not, yeah, I can't bet that either. That's, thank you for the reminder though, Fred. 2:48 That's, that's who I also saw perceived value on was the Cardinals plus seven against- Oh... the Bengals. Yeah. Yeah, I don't wanna bet that either. King of, uh, car seats, "The 2 and 4 Giants had wins over the 2:58 Chargers, Eagles, and an OT loss to the Cowboys. The two and f-" I think he means two and, two and, the two and four Raiders. I don't know why he's saying two to f- two and four. Uh, they're both two and 13. 3:10 "Had a win over the Pats and missed a last second field goal to beat the Bears. The season comes at you fast." Oh, he's talking about when they were two and four. Got it. 3:19 The two and four Giants at that point had wins over the Chargers, Eagles, and an OT loss to the Cowboys. Two and four Raiders had a win over the Pats and a missed last second field goal to beat the Bears. 3:26 You're right, man. Remember that Russell Wilson game? Oh, yeah. Where he threw for, like, almost 400. And it was like Russ is back. Or he threw for more than 400. Yeah. Did he? Yeah. They, they went to overtime. 3:35 That was a- Amazing. Amazing. Adam Burke joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Cleveland sports fan, but of course the glue that holds this whole operation together at VSiN, @skatingtripods, uh, on Twitter. 3:46 He comes to us now. Adam, good morning, sir. How you doing, boys? Doing very well, man. Um, sorry about Quinshon Judkins first, first things first. Sucks. Yeah. Yeah. That was, uh, that was ugly. Very, very ugly. 4:01 And, and look, you know what I mean, at least Harold Fanene's having a really, really good year, and so Judkins was too. 4:06 I mean, at least the draft class from this past year is doing really well, but man, this team needs so much help. It's, it's, it's outrageous how bad they are. 4:14 Let's, let's talk about something more positive, which is college football. Um, quarterfinals are set. We'll get to those. 4:20 I'm just curious, do you have a bet on the, uh, on the Idaho Potato Bowl, which kicks off in a couple hours between, uh, Wazzu and Utah State or any of the three bowl games tomorrow, Boca Raton, New Orleans, or Frisco Bowl, Adam? 4:33 And you know it's, uh, in Frisco, Texas when they call it the Frisco Bowl, not the other one. 4:36 Yeah, so I mean, I, I wrote all of these up over at vsin.com and, and I gotta be honest with you, like, we're writing up all the bowl previews. 4:43 Um, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean that every game is gonna have a really, really strong opinion on it. Uh, I do like UNLV quite a bit, minus six and a half in the Frisco Bowl here. 4:52 Ohio, I mean, at least we finally know why their head coach, Brian Smith, is gone. Um, but it's just been a very tumultuous lead up to the bowl game for the Bobcats here. 5:01 Whereas for UNLV, they got Dan Mullen, I guess an interim head coach. Mullen's a guy who's seven and three in bowl games. He's been through this bowl prep period before. 5:10 Anthony Colandrea's probably gonna be back next year, so just a lot of stability on the UNLV side here leading into the bowl game. So I think they can just go out there, put up a number. 5:18 Both of these teams like to run the football, but UNLV is better at throwing it. Uh, much, much better at throwing it, and better at running it too. 5:24 So I think UNLV boat races Ohio in that Frisco Bowl in the late game, uh, here on Tuesday. 5:30 As far as today's game goes, Potato Bowl, and by the way, for those listening on the radio, uh, Tim Murray will be on the sideline for that one, our own host of VSiN Prime Time. 5:39 Um, Utah State minus one and a half would be the way I would look in this game. You know, Washington State loses their head coach, Jimmy Rogers, to Iowa State. 5:46 Another situation where you've got a, a lot of turmoil, a lot of transition, guys trying to figure out where they're gonna go. 5:52 Washington State hasn't really invested a whole lot of money into this program while they haven't been in a conference, so it's not like there's a whole lot of depth on this team or anything like that. 6:02 Uh, so, you know, Utah State, Bryson Barnes, pretty dynamic player. Uh, it would be Utah State or nothing for me here on the Smurf Turf this morning. Okay. 6:09 You said, and you said Tim Murray is on the sideline for this game? He is, yeah, for, uh, Bowl Season Radio, I believe. Wow, for Bowl Season Radio. Okay. 6:16 Did, was Tim's first reaction, "Why didn't they send me to the Hawaii Bowl?" That seems like Tim would say something like that. But Hawaii's- I, first of all, I mean, that's fair, right? 6:23 We've done a, a lot of stuff for Hawaii- That's right... and the College Football Betting Podcast, and our sponsor Rainbow Authentics and, and the Hoku Jewelers and all that. 6:30 But, uh, no, he got sent to, uh, Boise, which I mean, I, I haven't checked the weather yet, but, uh, I imagine he'd much rather be in Hawaii for sure. Boise is beautiful though. Boise is, is beautiful. It is. 6:40 I love Boise. It's- Great town... great town Super underrated And, and just gorgeous. Uh, and nothing Cal-Hawaii Christmas Eve for you? 6:48 Uh, no, I mean, you know, I, I, I tend to agree with the line moving towards Hawaii here, especially because it was announced late last week that Mike Aloha, their quarterback, reached an I- an NIL deal. 6:59 He's gonna be back for next season. Timmy Chang obviously has that program going in the right direction. Cal's got a new head coach coming in, Oregon's DC, Tosh Lupoi. 7:08 So just another example of one team just has a lot more stability than the other team, and so I understand why this line has moved toward the Hawaii side. 7:17 It would be Hawaii or nothing for me, but, uh, I'll probably just spend Christmas Eve not watching the Hawaii Bowl. [laughs] Okay. Chinese food available for all, Adam. I just wanna point that out. 7:27 I, I've spent many a, a Hawaii Bowl eating Chinese food. All right, to the quarterfinals. Um, let's start with the Friday night game, Miami, Ohio State. Ohio State was a double-digit favorite. 7:37 I see Miami is taking some money now, so I'm seeing some nine and a halves now in favor of the Buckeyes. This feels like a lot of points still, Adam. You? Yeah, this does feel like a lot of points. 7:47 So I mean, my power rating is just a raw power rating. 7:50 I don't adjust it in terms of the total or anything like that because, you know, usually if you're gonna have a low-scoring expectation, you kinda wanna regress that power rating a little bit because you're expecting maybe, you know, fewer possessions or just it's much harder to gain ground, you know, in a game such as this. 8:05 And I still have Ohio State an eight-point favorite in this game, so I'm a little bit below market between where this line opened, where it kind of peaked. 8:12 Um, I, look, I, I'm shocked to see this total going up a little bit because to me this looks like an under play. 8:19 I mean, I don't know how you can't like the under in this one where Miami, outside of a couple of explosive running plays for Mark Fletcher, they did virtually nothing against that Texas A&M defense. 8:28 And Ohio State's defense is better. You know, maybe they don't record the s- the same rate of sacks or anything like that, but Ohio State's a much better defense tackling the open field. 8:37 Caleb Downs, Arvel Reese, it's really hard, Sonny Stiles, it's really hard to run around those guys. And it seemed like Miami was kind of hiding Carson Beck in that game. 8:46 I was actually watching with Femi Abifade, one of our old colleagues here at VSAN. Yeah. And he mentioned this, he mentioned that to me, and it wasn't something I thought about at the time, but it... 8:54 Like, Miami didn't want Carson Beck to make a mistake in that game. They wanted to run the football, have as many easy throws as possible. 9:02 If that's what they wanna do against Ohio State, they're not gonna score many points against this Buckeyes team. But Ryan Day is a guy that really puckers up in a close, low-scoring game- [laughs]... 9:12 and wants to put it on his defense. I don't think he's gonna let Julian Saine go out there and throw the ball around the yard. I think he's just gonna try to be really, really smart, really vanilla, really safe. 9:22 To me, that lends itself towards an under. So I, I'm not really sure why we're seeing this total go up, um, but I, I think this game under 42 and a half is, is kinda the way that I would look here. 9:31 Look up "puckers up" for me, Danny, could you? Could you get a Google search on that? Gotcha. The, uh, that Miami-Texas A&M, A&M game was, was something else, and I had Miami. 9:40 Uh, three missed field goals, Malachi Tony getting tripped up on that punt return looked like it was gonna loom large. Um, I annoyed the group exchange with, uh, "How did he get tripped up?" 9:51 Like, doing a, a Zapruder film on, on his... He actually got tripped up by the, uh, elbow area of the, uh, defender. It was just an amazing football game. 9:59 Uh, so different from the Alabama comeback over Oklahoma the previous night. 17-point, uh, down 17 to nothing, Alabama storms back to beat Oklahoma. 10:08 Uh, what of the three games on New Year's Eve, Oregon-Texas Tech, uh, Texas Tech-Oregon favored by one and a half. Bama is a six-and-a-half-point dog versus Indiana, the number one seed. 10:17 And then Georgia, six-and-a-half point over Ole Miss coming off their win this weekend. What do, what do you like best of those three? Uh, well, Cliff Notes version I guess on all three of these games real quick. 10:27 Um, I have Texas Tech favored in my power ratings in that game against Oregon. So I'm gonna wind up on the Texas Tech side here. 10:33 I'm, I'm just gonna kinda wait and see, you know, if I can maybe get, squeeze out a little bit better of a money line price just taking the Red Raiders, um, in that one. 10:41 I, I don't know how good Texas Tech's offense is, I'll be completely honest. I truly don't know. But I know their defense is really, really good. 10:47 And Dan Lanning kind of falls in the James Franklin category for me of a dude that can play the bully role really well, but you put him in a game against a comparable or better opponent and he has problems finishing it off. 10:59 And we've had several data points of that already. So I do like Texas Tech in that game. Alabama-Indiana, I think the line is right here. I have it six and a half, um, but I do like the Indiana side a little bit. 11:11 Ty Simpson just, I mean, they, they turned it around, you know, midstream in that game. The in-game adjustments were really good. 11:17 I don't think they have the same coaching advantage here against Kurt Signetti that they had in that game against Brent Venables, and I still think Ty Simpson is hurt. 11:24 So, uh, I think the number's right, but I would lean towards the Indiana side. 11:28 And as far as Ole Miss-Georgia goes, you know, much like the Ole Miss-Tulane game, we saw this already, and Georgia was much better, so I don't expect this game to go any differently. Yeah. 11:37 I am, I'm, I like Miami, I like Texas Tech, I like Indiana, I like Georgia. Uh, we are, we are aligned, sir, on, uh, almost everything there. Adam Burke. Adam, appreciate it. Thank you so much. Take care, guys. 11:51 Adam Burke, everybody. Drew's next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. 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Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places. 12:53 [rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the numbers game, live from the Circa Resort Casino. 13:10 Don't forget about Better Sports. Uh, Better Picks is the daily fantasy app where your sports knowledge turns into real cash fast. Here's how it works. Download the Better app. That's B-E-T-R. 13:20 Pick more or less on your favorite player's stats. And when your picks hit, you win. Right now, new users get a free $10 just for signing up. No deposit required. 13:27 And when you do deposit, you get a $50 deposit match up to $200. Better has action every day of the year: NBA, WNBA, MLB, soccer, UFC, golf, and more, so there's always a lineup to build and always a chance to win. 13:39 Getting started is easy. Head to better.app. That's B-E-T-R dot A-P-P. Download Better, or you could download Better in the App Store or Google Play. 13:47 And don't forget to use promo code VSiN to claim your free $10 and your deposit bonus. Better Picks. If you know sports, it is time to prove it. QR code right there on the screen you can scan as well. 13:57 By the way, uh, Schizo, who's, uh, tweeted a couple times earlier today, but I just wanna get his last one in from him. 14:02 He said, "Speaking of Jake Paul," he says, "I had Anthony Joshua over one and a half knockdowns, and my only fear of losing this bet was that, that Paul would not get up after the first one. Cast easily. 14:11 Hopefully, we can put this Jake Paul boxing career nonsense to rest. It was bad for the sport." Yeah, Schizo, I don't, I don't think we're putting it to rest, though. That dude is ready to fight some more. 14:22 Yeah, and he's gonna promote it. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. He looked, he... By the way, his... You see the pictures of his face after that fight? Oh, yeah. Oh. [laughs] Man, that's... That was not an... 14:32 That was not a you should see what the other guy looks like situation. No. That was, that did not look pretty. Yeah, I believe he had two fractures in his jaw. Eesh. Two, that's it? Yeah, just two. 14:41 Drew Dincic joins us usually on a Tuesday, but because it's Christmas week and the man's got stuff to do with family, he joins us now on a Monday post guessing lines courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. 14:50 You can follow him on Twitter at whale_capper, or of course, check out his podcasts, Bet the Edge from NBC Sports, which he does with Jake Croucher, or Dincic Classic: The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor. 15:01 How you doing, Drew? Happy holidays, man. Absolutely. Happy holidays to you as well. Hope you guys, uh, enjoyed, uh, [clears throat] uh, enjoyed the action yesterday. Um, 15:11 I woke up a little, uh, little kinda, little down today. What's wrong? You know? Like a little... Well, the end of the season kinda snuck up on me. Oh. Did the- You know? Did the Dincic heater continue yesterday, though? 15:24 Are we- Oh, yeah. Okay. Oh, oh yeah. Oh, yeah. I, it, I won, uh, let's see, which... We had both Saturday correct. Uh, oh, the Bears was a gift. Um, still, I've rewatched that game now twice. 15:36 I still don't understand [laughs] how they won. It's incredible. Uh, it was amazing, amazing, uh, performance from them, uh, to close the gap and, and then get the win. Um, the... 15:46 And then yesterday, uh, the big, big ones for me were Titans and Saints. Those, those were both no doubters. Um, hit the Patriots at night. Uh, only loss that was consequential was Li- I had Lions. Um, 16:02 s- not exactly sure I agree with the [clears throat] officiating at the end of that one- [laughs] But we'll, uh, we'll, we'll see. We'll, we'll- What did you, what did you believe should have happened? 16:08 What did you believe should happened? Well, I thought the first offensive pass interference on the touchdown was kind of fugazi. Uh, the second one was- A pick, yeah... probably right. 16:18 But, you know, considering how insane that play ended up playing out, it would've been fun, more fun. The no-fun league snuck in on that last play and, and took it away from us. 16:27 But, um, no, I mean, I, I, you know, kind of a little, little, uh, melancholy this morning just because, like, we have two weeks of [laughs] regular season left, and it kind of feels like it's, it's over. Yeah. 16:39 Um, these last two weeks are, a lot of them, a lot of these games are just, uh, no, you know, not, n- n- don't have the juice. 16:46 Uh, um, I don't remember another season like this where we've had so many games left, but the playoffs field is effectively set. I s- I said that earlier, Drew. Like, this is really weird. 16:55 I don't ever remember this, right? There's, there's just- I don't either... just a couple games on the fringe that matter. Otherwise, it's just seeding. Yeah. 17:02 And, uh, and then you kinda start going through the injury report, trying to start the handicap for this week. It's like, how many teams are on QB three? A couple teams are on QB four maybe. 17:11 [laughs] Like, like, wow, we are gonna have a wild one. And Christmas, the Christmas Day games? Brutal. Um, time, time to, uh, yeah, time to learn, uh, uh, Olu- Oludakon and, uh, and Brosmer, and, uh- It's Brosmer, Drew. 17:27 It's Brosmer... is that Josh Johnson's music? We learned yesterday. Brosmer? Brosmer. Brosmer. Think about, think about if you're one of these- Um, Josh Johnson's music. 17:31 Oh, my goodness Yeah, think, think about if there's, if there's one of the, if you're one of the last nine or 10, depending on the Niners outcome tonight, one of the last nine or 10. 17:39 Let's say the Niners win, and it's 10 remaining entries. I mentioned this at the beginning of the show. Nobody has the Broncos left, and nobody- Yeah... has the Lions left. Oof. 17:48 So five of the 10, 'cause five do have the Cowboys, but at least five of the 10 are gonna have to back, if it is those guys, Johnson, Brosmer, or Oladekin. I mean- Unbelievable... good. 17:59 [laughs] To make it this far and have that be your fate feels unfair. Brutality. Yeah. Yeah. And if you, and if you had Dallas- I, yeah... you prob- you're probably like, "I'm not chopping," right? 18:10 No, no, uh, you're in, you're in, you're in an excellent position- Mm-hmm... 18:14 if you save Dallas for this one, um, 'cause I'm not sure if you watched much of the end of the Commanders game, but you know who's not especially good at football? I'm- Josh Johnson... I'm gonna guess Josh Johnson. 18:23 Um- Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah. Oof, man. Uh, they, they picked up, uh, Jeff Driskel, who was their QB three, uh, last year. 18:31 Um, if we get a weird surprise, actually it's gonna be Jeff Driskel [laughs] that I, I won't be... I'm not gonna be surprised, I guess, but, uh, I, uh, it, it kind of doesn't really matter. 18:42 Um, you are getting-- you do get to go up against the JV defense there, uh, if you're Washington, so maybe there's some success on the ground. 18:49 Maybe it just ends up being like kind of have an, an exhibition feel to it, and it's just points for everyone. 18:55 Um, but, uh, I laid Cowboys there, um, largely just because I, I really, you know, a vote of no confidence for me from, for, for, for Johnson. Yeah. 19:04 If you, if you want giggles, if you, if you have, uh, 15 seconds to spare every day, just check out Josh Johnson's Wikipedia page. Just go through his, uh- [laughs]... 19:12 his itinerary, I, I guess we'll call it, his peripa- uh, pathetic career in the National Football League. It's incredible to see how a guy like that has lasted for 17 years, uh- Amazing... 19:24 playing for 14 different teams, I believe, I believe it is, with like Los Angeles- Yeah... Wildcats thrown in there as well a couple times. Sacramento Mountain Lions. 19:31 Yeah, he must just be an awesome scout quarterback for the- [laughs]... you know, for the practices, I guess. That's right. 19:35 Can't imagine why else he's been around for 17 years, but, uh- How would- Yeah, hey, you know, he gets, he gets standalone game on Christmas. Y- yeah, man. That'll be fun for him. Yeah. 19:42 How do you feel about your Tyler Shuck Rookie of the Year ticket? Uh, I mean, it certainly feels like the path is, you know, the door's open. Um, he needed more than... 19:54 Y- you know, it would've, it would've been nice to have a couple more touchdowns from him yesterday. Um, and the McMillan performance was good, uh, and kind of solidified him as a healthy favorite. 20:06 Um, but the door is absolutely open. Um, McMillan has been inconsistent. Uh, if he is unable to, uh, get much going against Seattle, which feels very, very likely, uh, then it kind of comes down to that week 18 game. 20:20 Um, tough to see any other world now where the week 18 primetime game isn't, uh, Buccaneers-Panthers, 'cause that's kind of the only spot that's really gonna be up for grabs. 20:29 Um, and in that world, uh, you know, he obviously, he, he is able to, uh, you know, do well against the, the Buccaneers in the standalone game at the end. 20:40 You know, maybe he's warranting this healthy of a favoritism, but, uh, I think Shuck is gonna win in here. Uh, he's obviously favored this week against Tennessee. I agree. Um, he looks like he is... He, you know, he... 20:53 Th- there's a, there's something that I've kind of noticed as you look at Rookie of the Year awards, uh, both NFL and NBA. It's the same sort of story. A lot of times people, when it come down to, um, 21:07 when it comes down to, like, a tie-breaking at the end of the day, they go with the guy who they think is going to just be around in the league longer, right? Well, that's interesting. 21:17 Like, they don't want somebody to look up their... They don't want somebody to look at their, their, their ballot- [laughs] Yeah... 21:22 or their, you know, the notes from, you know, their story that they wrote and be like, "Whoa, she rooted for a guy, Rookie of the Year. He's already out of the league?" You know? 21:29 Like, there, there's a little bit of like- That's a good call. Yeah... "I can... I'm not gonna be embarrassed by this in the future," right? 21:36 And to the degree that Shuck passes the smell test that he'll be around, I, I think that he's the answer for the Saints, at least for the next couple years. 21:44 So it's not an embarrassing vote to vote for him, uh, which I think is pretty huge criteria. So, um, yeah, I mean, you know, he, he, he's got the, uh, he's got awesome chemistry with Chris Olave. 21:55 Uh, the Saints, two very winnable games on the way in here against the, uh, Titans and the Falcons, and, uh, I think it's gonna be tough to ignore the noise. Uh, you know, the... 22:05 it's gonna be very loud chorus of people talking about Shuck, uh, with a five-game win streak on the way in and a seven-win Saints team that everybody had left for dead. 22:13 It definitely will be, if he does get there, overcoming McMillan, Njoku, and of course Jackson Dart. If he gets there, it will be because of that win streak, because the stats aren't as good as Jackson Dart's, right? 22:24 Like, so the stats- Yeah... the stats don't measure up. It's just the wins. So we'll see. Right now, again, McMillan the favorite, minus 220. Tyler Shuck plus 370. 22:33 Everybody else, starting with Treveyon and Njoku- [laughs]... double digits. Uh, what did you-- have you bet anything thus far in week 17? Yeah. Uh, action for me in the markets that are open for Thursday and Saturday. 22:47 Um, I laid Cowboys six and a half. Uh, I laid Lions six. Uh, this again, you know, the road, road shock under a touchdown is fine with me if you get to take on Josh Johnson and, and Max Brosmer, in my opinion. 23:02 Um, the Chiefs-Broncos one is a fun dog, I think. Uh, the, um... I thought the downgrade from Mahomes to Minshew was clearly not enough heading into that Tennessee game. 23:16 Um, and now we're downgrading from Minshew to Olugosun to the tune of seven more points. Ooh, yeah. Feels like an overreaction. Yeah, I agree. [laughs] So 13? Yeah. All right. 23:26 [laughs] That's, that's, that's, uh, that's kinda the number I would need to get involved with the, uh, the Chiefs, and then you just hope that, um, you know. 23:33 There's, there's certainly plenty of whiffs that this is Kelsey's final ride. This would be his final home game. 23:38 Um, if there's a little bit of a heightened performance from the Chiefs, uh, to send him on his way, that wouldn't surprise me. That would, that would be the night. We'll get more of, uh, Drew's picks week 17. 23:48 Also, uh, if he has any NBA plays on the card tonight. It's a numbers game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. 24:05 Don't forget, looking for the perfect holiday gift? We have the answer for you. VSiN's holiday special gives you VSiN Pro access through May 1st for just $79. 24:14 You'll get daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools, and 24/7 video on the VSiN Watch app, covering everything from bowl season and the NFL playoffs to March Madness and the Masters. 24:24 Plus, you'll get our college football playoff betting guide, featuring expert playoff brackets, power ratings, CFP and bowl best bets, and access to game previews for every bowl game on vsin.com. 24:33 Give yourself the gift of smarter betting. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Danny Higgins, Everett Kelly, Billin enjoying his holidays in Florida. 24:44 We assume he's, he's enjoying them. I believe so, yeah. Maybe we shouldn't, uh, assume. Um, Drew is, uh, headed out, uh, so he's kind enough to join us on Monday this week before he heads out for his holiday plans. 24:55 He comes to us, again, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Whale_capper is where you can find him on, uh, on Twitter. Uh, Drew was, uh, off air, was telling us about some of the stuff. 25:03 I'm like, uh, and I'm thinking to myself, "Who, which family do I wanna be adopted by more? Drew's, Will's?" [laughs] So many, so many wonderful family, uh, uh, experiences. 25:13 Uh, Drew, so, so Saturday, just to review, you're on J- Yeah... you're, excuse me, you're on Detroit, you're on Dallas, both favorites, but you are on Kansas City as well? Those are all official? Yep. Okay. 25:24 And then s- Yep. I'll, uh, bet them all. Yep. And then Sunday, anything yet or no? Oh, so yes, Sunday I haven't bet anything. The Saturday games, uh, I took Chargers, uh, laid one and a half there. 25:36 Um, mostly just curious to see if the Texas offensive line injuries are as serious as they looked like they were on Sat- on, uh, Sunday. 25:44 Um, tough turnaround for them, uh, getting a Chargers team that's playing pretty, pretty doggone well. I gotta say the, uh... 25:51 I was a doubter in Justin Herbert's ability to, you know, be as efficient as he was, but yesterday was clear proof, like he was e- outstanding. Mm-hmm. 26:00 And, um, yeah, you're, you're up against a, a very tough ask if you're Houston in this one. So, uh, laying the point and a half with the Chargers, uh, and very intrigued to see what the market ultimately opens for, um, 26:16 Ravens-Packers, uh, Peacock standalone game. 26:20 Uh, and it is l- p- th- a- anything from Jordan Love is just fine, and the Packers are, like, a plus five to this could be, what, ch- tune time, and the Packers are a minus seven. 26:32 Um, like, the, the variability of how to rate, uh, Packers depending on who's under center is, is really a fun handicap there. And, uh, I think Snoop Punley is almost certainly going for the Ravens in that one. 26:43 So, uh, dying to see what that market looks like. Yeah. Uh, and then- I, I also pointed out earlier- Yeah... Drew, there's also a correlation thing happening here, right? 26:50 If the, if the Lions lose to the Vikings on Thanksgiving, this game doesn't really mean that much to the Packers at that point, right? A bit of correlation. It will only mean seed- That's true... 27:02 at that point for the Packers. So there's that to, to sort of throw in that mix as well. But I'm with you, I'm with you on the Chargers. That was the first thing I reacted to. Took them last week on guessing lines. 27:11 The first thing I reacted to today line wise was I, I'm on the Chargers. I just got the minus one earlier on the show, minus one, minus 113. I, I just wanna throw this out there about the Chargers. 27:20 I have felt like for the last few weeks that I am team Chargers more than most people are. I've never been- Really?... sort of feeling that w- I never felt that way about the, the Chargers in any other season. 27:31 I feel like their defense is way better than people are giving them credit for, and I have a feeling they are very live in a very open-ended year. 27:41 I just have a sneaking suspicion, and I think some Chargers futures are pending. I'm not sure your, your thoughts on them on a macro basis. I'm not throwing cold water on them at all. Yeah. 27:49 Um, just the way Justin, the, the way Justin Herbert played the previous two games, he, his ball was a little bit sprayy. 27:59 [laughs] There was some, there was some accuracy things going on that I just, I didn't understand because supposedly he broke his left hand. Why in the world would that affect his accuracy with his right arm? 28:10 [laughs] Um, but, uh, all of the concerns were put to bed yesterday, I think, and I know that was, they were basically playing a JV defense, but, um, he was unbelievably good. And, uh, you're absolutely right. 28:22 The AFC is wide freaking open. Mm-hmm. Um, there is a... You could make an, uh, a... 28:28 I think you could make a good faith argument, um, that, uh, Justin Herbert is as good as any other quarterback in this conference who is in the playoff field. Um, I note that 28:41 the e- easy answer before yesterday was that the, you know, Josh Allen is your best quarterback in this mix, and that just, you know, don't be stupid, bet the Bills. Um, he picked up a foot injury yesterday- Yeah... 28:51 that is gonna hamper his ability to kind of use, you know, the, the two e- the, you know, the, the, um, the other e- element of his game that makes him so dangerous. 29:00 So I'm a little bit, uh, interested to see if there is a betting angle against the Bills right now in the AFC. Chargers make total sense. 29:08 You could argu- argue obviously Drake May has played, um, as well as both Allen and, or, you know, better than Allen and, uh, Herbert over the balance of this season. 29:17 But, um, it's been against a much, much softer schedule than the Chargers have had to go through. And, uh, you know, Chargers well co- well coached, uh, really well coordinated defense. 29:26 Um, they play a style of defense that's tough for, um, you know, tough for passing offenses to really make explosive plays against. Um, and yeah, if they win this game, if they get... 29:37 There's still obviously scope for them to flip the, uh, Broncos and get home field. Um, and, you know, at that point, you know, they're, they're very, very live. But- Yeah... um, definitely- And maybe more... 29:47 would not be afraid. Yeah. You, you, you're not afraid of Chargers on the road against the three-seed Jags. No way. You're not afraid of the Chargers on the road against the, the Broncos certainly. 29:58 You're not afraid of the Chargers on the road against the Pats. Um, it's really just a matter of Um, you know how they, uh, how they, how, how the seeding shakes out. 30:07 But, um, yeah, no one, there's no one scary right now in the AFC, so why can't Justin Herbert be the guy? 30:14 And I would, I would even add that this would be the week to make if, if, if you share that conviction, not you, but anybody who shares that conviction, this would be the week to make them because as Drew points out, there is a possibility where the AFC West is in their sights and, and again, they're one of six teams that could actually get the number one seed still. 30:30 So- Mm-hmm... um, now would be the sort of sneaky time to bet that conviction. 30:34 Uh, to the NBA, 'cause I wanna get your NBA bets if you have any today, but just real quick before we get to that, OKC loses to the T-Wolves Friday night- Mm... while all this football was going on. 30:45 It's their third loss- Yeah... of the year. They fall all the way to 25 and 3. Um- Yeah... 74 and 8 gonna happen now? I don't think so. Yeah. Um, 30:55 there's, uh, there's certainly a lot of fatigue creeping in and nagging injuries to a lot of important players. Their, uh, Christmas Day contest is not easy against the Spurs. 31:05 Um, I know they're nine-and-a-half point favorites, that's correct, but, uh, it's still, it's gonna be a challenging one there. 31:10 Um, I think right now we're kind of, we- we- it's d- absolutely worth watching what happens to OKC through these next three weeks 'cause, uh, there could be some malaise, there could be some slippage. 31:22 Uh, and they sh- they still should be healthy favorites to win the title. Um, so yeah, it's gonna be a bargain basement, buy low shopping on OKC hopefully in January sometime, and we'll, we'll let you know. 31:33 [laughs] Okay, what did you end up playing today in the association? Uh, in the association today I have the Hornets nine and a half. 31:41 I think, uh, Cavaliers are wildly overrated in that spot, and there's also scope that the Cavaliers could pull a couple guys here who are dealing with illness. 31:48 So, um, without Evan Mobley, I don't rate the Cavs the way the market does, and I really haven't all season. So, um, going against them there with the h- with the, uh, spunky Hornets. 31:57 Um, not a believer in the Mavericks either. Um, right now I have them pretty heavily overrated by market. Uh, I think the Pelicans should be small favorites in that contest. 32:07 Um, and then, uh, Golden State also is, looks like a good bet for me against the Orlando Magic. Uh, five and a half is a hair short, and this actually carries over nicely to what I like on Christmas Day. Hey, we can- Um, 32:20 I think the Knicks-Cavs game is fascinating. Um, again, we mentioned no Mobley for the Cavs in that one. Mitchell will probably be back. Mitchell matches up really nicely against that Knicks defense. 32:32 I think, uh, the Cavs can keep that one inside five and a half. So Cavs for me in the early contest and Mitchell props are worth looking at. Um, 233 and a half for Spurs, OKC is about five points too high. 32:45 That should be like 227, so under for me in the Spurs Thundy. Uh, and then I laid seven and a half with the Warriors. I think the Mavericks, uh, probably about a minus four, minus five-ish right now. 32:58 Um, my fair for that one is closer to nine, so I think Warriors get a healthy cover. Um, and, uh, Rockets-Lakers too low. Uh, 230 and a half, uh, should be more like two f- uh, 235. So over for me in, uh, Rockets-Lakers. 33:15 Expecting Dončić to go. We may see Austin Reaves back, uh, and should be a good one. Keep- keeping Danny busy with all those plays right there. Gotta make sure we get all the plays in. Furiously, furiously typing. 33:24 [laughs] Um, okay, before you go, since you bring up the, uh, the Cavs and the Knicks, uh, we just went on a Numbers Game field trip to the, uh, to the Cup Final the other night where the Knicks beat the Spurs. Oh, yeah. 33:33 I'm curious in the Eastern Conference, are they in, solidified in your brain as the, as the team to beat or not so much? [smacks lips] Uh, there's a potential black swan in the East, Gil. Celtics? It's the Celtics. 33:47 Oh, I thought you were going there. Yes, absolutely. Yeah. No question. Um, they're winning just enough now that they're in position to have home court in the first round of the playoffs. 33:59 If Jason Tatum comes back, this team is, like, number one power rated in the East by like four or five points. 34:06 Now, I don't know if you're gonna get the quality of Tatum that he w- you know, at the peak of his powers necessarily. Um, but I loaded up on some Celtics in the 859 range last week to win the East. 34:18 And the more they win and compile, you know, just compile wins here and set themselves up for, um, a decent run in the playoffs, the, the more excited I get that Tatum may just be back in February and surprise everyone and ready to go by April. 34:34 Drew, really appreciate you coming in, uh, on this Monday per, uh, per the holiday week. Enjoy your holiday. Safe travels, sir. I will. You as well. Best to all the listeners. Drew Dincic, everybody. 34:46 @whale_capper headed out for his, uh, his Christmas vacation. We'll come back. Whole bunch of picks to get to next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. 34:53 [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Think you know sports? 35:10 Get paid for it with Better Picks, by the way, the daily fantasy app that turns your sports knowledge into real cash. Just download Better, that's B-E-T-R. 35:18 Pick more or less on your favorite player stats, and if your picks hit, you win. New users get a free $10 just for signing up, no deposit required. And when you deposit, you'll get a 50% match up to $200 play. 35:28 NBA, WNBA, MLB, soccer, UFC, golf, and more. Go to better.app or download Better today. That's B-E-T-R.A-P-P. And use promo code VSiN for your free $10 and deposit bonus. Check it out, as always. 35:42 Uh, tomorrow on the show, Carl Sack will join us. Uh, NBA better. Whenever he, uh, opens his mouth, gives an NBA play, the markets move. He's also in the Humans Friday Invitational. Yes. Which I had no idea about. 35:56 Did you know this? Uh, I did not until after you said it, and then I went back and looked and, uh, saw that he's on there. Yeah. Unless, unless I misunderstood terribly. He is a-- And he's still alive, I believe? 36:05 Yes, he was. Or at least he was as of last week? As of last week, he's still alive. Yeah. Um, we'll have him on the show tomorrow. 36:10 Pete Few tack will join us to talk college football quarters, and a trio of bowl games tomorrow. We have one today, three tomorrow. Uh, so we'll get Few Tack's thoughts on that. 36:19 Jeff Erickson on week 17, we'll do that as well. And Jay Cohn on the NHL. All that tomorrow. 36:23 And by the way, the Megapod schedule, tomorrow we're doing a special early Megapod because it is Christmas week and nobody wants to work on Christmas or Christmas Eve day. So we're doing the Megapod tomorrow. 36:33 Ben Wilson will join us. Ben. Ben Wilson, the man who will be more famous than anyone who ever came out of Visa, minus the Stormy Bonatoni division. [laughs] Um, but she will be. 36:46 Uh, she will be first, but he will be second. Ben Wilson. And then next week, for Megapod fans, the return of Vegas Runner. 36:52 We do, uh, one, uh, one show a week, a throwback to, uh, to our old buddy, Ace, who will be on the show. 36:59 Megapod also next week, Tuesday, because of New Year's Day, New Year's Eve preceding that, so we'll do it on Tuesday next week as well from our lovely Wynn Studios. Whole bunch of bets today for me, Danny. Yeah. 37:10 Uh, from the NFL, it's like deja vu all over again. Last week, seven days ago, it was the Chargers and Panthers for me against the Cowboys and Buccaneers respectively. 37:19 Well, today it's the Chargers minus one versus the Texans, and the Panthers plus seven and a half with extra juice versus the Seahawks. I thought those two had the most value. 37:28 There, there were a couple others that I thought had value, the Giants, the Cardinals, but do I really wanna get involved in that? No. The answer is no. Uh, and then I made four... 37:38 I made a play on each of these quarterfinal games in college football. Miami plus eight and a half made this morning, Texas Tech plus one and a half against Oregon. 37:47 Indiana, I'm laying the six and a half are against Alabama. Georgia, laying the six and a half against Ole Miss, figuring that's the end of the road for the, uh, Lane Kiffin-less Ole Miss squad. 37:56 And then, uh, I do have Indiana to win the college football title at 10 to one from earlier in the year. My Cowboys, uh, futures, as we, we talked about last week, they were done already. 38:06 Mathematically not, but now they are mathematically done. Um, and what else did I lose? I lost something else here. My Vikings alt season win total under is now on life support. 38:18 Not on life support, but now it's like the end of the road with that. I have them under seven and a half plus 225, I believe it was. Uh-huh. Something like that. 38:27 So I cannot afford the Vikings to win another game to cash that. Still have the, uh, Mike McDonald Coach of the Year ready to go. Yeah, you got, uh, Vikings under seven and a half plus 220. Plus 220. 38:39 So they got seven wins now out of nowhere. I know. Dude. Giants under season win total's gonna cash. Um, but like there's a, there's a couple that were ridiculous. You remember I made a Falcons NFC bet at one point? 38:52 Oh, yes. Earlier in the year. That one didn't age well. You got Broncos to make the playoffs. Broncos making the playoffs. Yeah. Mm-hmm. We'll get there. Um, there was a few. 38:59 But something, something else went down yesterday, I can't remember. You have a prop- Oh, the Bears. The Bears. That's the one. Yeah, you had the Bears to miss the playoffs. Had the Bears to miss the playoffs. Yes. 39:06 That's the one that went down on Saturday. As the Bears just do unbelievable things in the year 2025. Good, good for them. Good on, uh, Caleb, good on the Bears. You have a prop tonight. 39:16 Yeah, I'm gonna go with a little prop tonight in the game instead of going either side, not too sure on, but, uh, I like this prop. Tyler Warren over 36 and a half receiving, uh, receiving yards. 39:26 Um, he has not gotten there the last three weeks, but if you go back and look, uh, he's hit this number 10 out of 14 games. 39:33 Uh, granted, I know he had Daniel Jones then, but I believe, you know, getting back to, um, what they can do, you know, get that play action, hit him on a couple over routes, really try to get him involved. 39:43 Uh, he's had still six targets the last two weeks. Um, so I mean, 36 and a half is not too much to, uh, to ask for. 39:50 But yeah, they get that play action going, I can see him getting some over routes, and, uh, Rivers, you know, finding his tight end ear- early and often hopefully. All right. Yeah. 39:58 Um, you're ei- you'll either be a documented one and O or O and one after tonight- It's eight. Yes... on the show. Danny Higgins. [laughs] Documentation. 40:06 Adam Burke, by the way, had a co- couple college football plays for us. Today, uh, this kicks off in just over an hour. Just over an hour from now, Wazzu and Utah State in the Idaho Potato Bowl. 40:18 What's your favorite Idaho Potato Bowl memory, Danny? Oh, God. All these years. I'll have to go back and think about it. Blue Turf, Boise. Uh, he is on Utah State, given the point and a half versus Washington State. 40:29 And then tomorrow, in the third of the three bowl games, Frisco Bowl, Frisco, Texas, he's on the R- the Rebels of UNLV, laying six and a half versus Ohio out of the MAC. So two plays for him. 40:40 And then Drew Dinsick, uh, with a quartet of football plays. These are all on Thursday or Saturday. He has not graduated to the Sunday card yet. 40:49 But on, uh, Thursday, Christmas, he's laying the points with the Cowboys, minus six and a half at the Washington Commodores. Laying the points with the Lions, minus six at the Vikings. 40:59 Lions again must win twice, Packers must lose twice for the Lions to make the playoffs. What's been a more disappointing season for these two teams that met in the playoffs last year, Commanders winning at Detroit? 41:11 The Commanders' season or the Lions' season? I would say the Lions- Me too... 'cause the Commanders with the injuries with Daniels- Totally agree... but the Lions just... Totally agree. 41:19 Let's go back to that, uh, previous page, guys. We didn't get through all those. So it's, uh, he's laying the points with the Cowboys and the Lions. 41:24 He is taking the points with the Chiefs, though, against the Broncos on Christmas, taking the 13. Chris Latakin, what could go wrong? [laughs] And then on Saturday, he is with me on the Chargers, laying... 41:36 He's, he laid one and a half, I laid one on the Chargers versus the Houston Texans. Then basketball tonight, whole bunch from Drew. Uh, Hornets plus nine and a half, Pels plus one and a half. 41:47 Uh, those are tonight, I believe? Yes, those are tonight. Uh, Warriors as well, plus five and a half today. Now, these are all Christmas, the, the next four, am I correct about that? 41:55 Yes, that's why I wanted to put the Xmas next to it so we can- Yeah, so-... separate them Oh, thus denoted by the Xmas there. Yeah, I was trying to squeeze it in, you know? 42:01 [laughs] Ah, see, not wearing the glasses worked short- [laughs]... didn't work long. Uh, Rockets-Lakers over 230 and a half on Christmas Day. Cavs at Knicks, he's taking the Cavs, uh, taking the points. 42:12 Cavs plus five and a half at the Knicks on Christmas. Spurs-Thunder, he's going under on that one on Christmas as the Thunder try to avoid a fourth loss. 42:21 Thunder play today too, though, as well, but they're big favorites today. And then the Dubs on, uh, Christmas, he's laying the seven and a half against the Mavs. 42:28 So three today, four on Christmas Day, where the NFL used to say to themselves, "Ah, Christmas, at least Christmas is our day." And the NFL is like- Yeah... "Uh, watch this. Here are three games." 42:37 Three sucky games, but three games nonetheless. Mm. Yes. Um, about the game tonight, Philip Rivers. For those folks who are still clinging, I think irrationally so, right? I agree. 42:49 But for those people who are still clinging to their Philip Rivers Comeback Player of the Year dreams, what does he ha- what, what must he do the rest of the way? They have to make the playoffs, right? 42:59 They have to make the playoffs. I think, I think- That's the first thing... that's the first thing. 43:03 I don't know what else there could be, 'cause, I mean, unless he throws up gaudy numbers, which, I mean, seeing from what we saw last week, doesn't look like it's gonna be. But he's gotta make the playoffs. 43:12 They got, they gotta make the playoffs. I'll say it again. They gotta make the playoffs, and he's gotta do something besides throw for 120 yards. 43:18 Like, in other words, I'll say it again, Joe Flacco, when he beat a guy who died on the field in Damar Hamlin, four straight wins to get the Browns in the playoffs. I believe it was five straight wins maybe. Was it four? 43:33 Four. But anyway, in the four wins to end the season, he threw for 300 four times, 374 and 368 in two of those, and they gave it to Joe Flacco. 43:45 And again, when the, when Alex Smith won this, our comment before the Alex Smith year was, coming off of 17 surgeries, "Hey, man, if he just throws, if he just steps on the field." 43:54 And then it was, we amended it to, "If he just completes one forward pass." This is not that. Yeah. Christian McCaffrey, minus 300 now, the favorite by, by margin now to win Comeback Player of the Year. 44:09 Trevor Lawrence and Aidan Hutchinson have moved shorter than Dak. Yes. I saw that when I was doing this graphic this morning. I was like, "Oh, because..." So Dak- Yeah... Dak has done nothing wrong- No... personally. 44:20 It's just that they have no shot at making the playoffs. They've been eliminated, so that's why that's happened. I'm gonna go with that, and they're not winning? And, yeah. Well- Like, yeah... yes, that's why. Yeah. 44:27 Yeah. Part and parcel with them not winning. But Trevor Lawrence hopped up big there. Do we really think Christian McCaffrey is getting this over Trevor Lawrence now? I don't know. By the way, Philip Rivers, 30 to 1. 44:41 Okay. He has, he has gone... Philip Rivers, the irrational Philip Rivers Comeback Player of the Year thing, got all the way as short as plus 350. Now he's back to 30 to 1. I still don't see it. 44:51 [laughs] I don't see it either. There's no... I said from the beginning, there's no chance. There's none. People are being crazy about this. Um, but I don't know, man. I... Let's put it this way. 45:01 What is more likely: Tyler Shuck, Offensive Rookie of the Year, overcoming Teddaro McMillan, or Trevor Lawrence, Comeback Player of the Year, overcoming Christian McCaffrey? I'm gonna go with Tyler Shuck. 45:14 I'm not so sure. No. You're gonna go with Lawrence. I just think if they keep winning... Uh, well, it might come down to how the season ends, the last two weeks. Yeah. Will the Jags keep winning? 45:24 Will the Niners keep winning? Yeah, a lot of these, and Coach of the Year, the most up in the air of all these awards. Um, we've done all we can do. Danny in for, for Kelly. Danny will be here all week, yes? Yes. 45:35 I'll be here all Monday through Thursday. Oh, wow. So, yes. Monday through Thursday. Yeah. Sorry. I'm on my own Friday. Got wide, got wide on Friday. Like I said, I'm on my own Friday. I'm kidding, wide. It's a joke. 45:44 Prop Points with John Hansen is next. Enjoy, from Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
